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User 7415181's  Instablog

User 7415181
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I'm writing an instablog - I know of a few people who have read some, but the main reason for writing it is to clarify my thinking (and likely confuse you) before I invest in something every month or so. And also to act as a journal I can review every so often. I work as a mental health nurse.... More
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User 7 blah blah's instablog.
  • This Week's Possible Buys 2 comments
    Jul 16, 2013 11:39 AM

    I put in a stinker limit order for a few shares of BPOPO just now. Volume's low so probably won't get it. Guess someone saw a Fox business article and got freaked out and dumped their shares. Oops - the price is already back to where it opened. Oh well.

    I had the idea of buying FULLL a few weeks ago. After some further reading I'm concerned that the company is not covering the dividend for the common stock. If the company cuts the common dividend and the bond/note craters along with the common I might buy, but just keeping an eye on it at the present.

    Another idea I read about was MORL. This etf pays a variable yield monthly. The problem is that it is a basket of mreits. And is leveraged. Another one to keep my eye on.

    Who in the world bought BPOPP and pushed the price over $26? Really? It's callable!

    Ugh. Not to many other preferreds that aren't pure mreits that I'm seeing that meet my minimum 8% yield/under par requirements. I-star is popping up and I'll have to research them further - from what little I read they actually own real estate.

    Cefs:

    Chw is popping back up on my screener. I would buy, but already own some in my Roth account.

    Ooo! Found one! LCM - sells covered calls on convertible securities (about 70% of the portfolio)! Not bad for rising interest rates! Should pay a distribution at the end of August! And they've already had distribution cuts a few years ago! Which I just bought a few shares!

    AGC - just missed the ex date - will definitely be on my radar in two weeks when I get paid again.

    Slight edit for grammar and to point out that my stinker bid on bpopo didn't work.

    Disclosure: I am long LCM.

    Additional disclosure: I just do whatever.

    Themes: lcm, bpop, agc, morl, sfi
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  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (1093) | Send Message
     
    User 741
    After you commented on the vaccine thread (MILVAX) I glanced at your profile and saw you had a blog, and you were waiting for someone to read it. I will be the first one and will comment.

     

    Definitely protect profits in BPOP. Looks like a momentum stock now.

     

    I am mostly in cash. Had some precious metals until the big drop in April. I am currently watching "macro" trends and looking for turning points in:
    1. interest rates - would buy 10 to 20yr T-Bond funds as Interest rate market (T-bonds) completes bottom.
    2. mREITS, but I would use a ETF and not the individual mREITS, e.g. (REM) or (http://bit.ly/HxNalq) which have 14.4 and 15.6% yields respectively. They are safer than a single REIT as a single REIT can self destruct like ARR. I owned ARR and it was the worst egg-sucking company I ever held. (secondary offering-issue more shares, then cut dividend. Repeat every 2 or 3 months)

     

    Both T-bonds and mReits have taken beating and are forming bottoms. I would be looking for completion or selling exhaustion. At that time good yields would be locked in too.

     

    3. Municipal bond funds. They have come down drastically with T-bonds and the Detroit bankruptcy. But I am not sure about long-term prospects for Municipals - some have a 6% yield now, but if the economy weakens this will hurt the cities finances even more, and Municipals could continue lower.

     

    Near term market outlook:
    Markets like to make tops in August. If things get too good to be in true in August . . . then it may be a top. That's when there could be real downside in October, Just something to watch.

     

    Actually, I think a strong correction or worse is possible this fall. Now, T-Bonds are down and the market is up -new highs. As stocks peak in August, T-Bonds will be bottoming: TLT or ZROZ. If stocks peak and then fall, that's when T-Bonds and cash will be the safe haven again.

     

    In a down market of course stocks would be down, but also mREITS and Municipal and Corporate bonds. Only safe thing as I said above would be cash and most likely T-Bonds.

     

    Good luck with your investing. At a market top, cash may be considered one of the best investments.

     

    JW

     

    That's my near-term macro view. Individual investment choices are based on these turning points.
    28 Jul 2013, 12:48 AM Reply Like
  • User 7415181
    , contributor
    Comments (562) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JW,

     

    Thanks for commenting! I agree with you about mreits - that's why I only consider preferreds and only then in small quantities. Same deal with bpop.

     

    I'm with you on getting uneasy that a correction may be in the cards this fall, but I've thought that before and have been wrong.

     

    Muni cefs I'm only considering if they have no Cali, Illinois, Michigan exposure. And even then, they all seem to be falling in lock step. Might wait awhile before buying into another one.
    28 Jul 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
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