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Bill Robertson is the Chief Executive Officer of Big River Capital Corporation, and he is ultimately responsible for the performance of each the firm's business units. Robertson launched Big River Risk Managers Fund, LP, a fund of hedge funds on January 1, 2008; Big River Real-Estate Partners... More
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  • Big River Report September 0 comments
    Aug 29, 2013 5:14 PM

    The September Report is now available online. The portfolio was down (1.3%) during August through 8/29/13. YTD the portfolio has returned 22.3% through 8/29/13.

    It appears that the US stock markets are adjusting for higher interest rates. Recent economic data has been mixed, but I've seen nothing in the data to suggest that the odds of a September stimulus reduction has been reduced from the recent 50/50 chance. These odds were generated by the FOMC's polling of a leading group of national economists.

    I believe a strong August employment report will allow the Fed to begin the unwinding process in September. However, a lackluster or weak unemployment report could easily cause the process to be postponed until later this year.

    Minutes from the July 31 FOMC meeting suggests that the economy was weaker than the committee had anticipated during the first half of 2013, but that US GDP growth appears to be on track to pick up during the second half of the year.

    The August through October period has historically been a difficult stretch for US equities and the recent turmoil in Syria has increased investor anxiety. Stock prices relative to earnings are high when compared with most of the past decade.

    We believe that we own great businesses. We also believe that the transition to a more normal interest rate environment is ultimately healthy for the US and global economy. However, we expect annual returns comparable to what we've seen from the S&P 500 over the last several years could be more difficult to achieve in a rising interest rate environment. And generally, we believe the economy will have a difficult time gaining steam during the transition period towards higher interest rates.

    So far, I've seen nothing to indicate that business conditions will materially deteriorate, but we will continue to be vigilant in our risk management.

    Thank you for your interest in BigRiverReport.com. Subscribe today to receive the regular emails with trades and commentary.

    Bill Robertson

    Disclaimer. BigRiverReport.com is a financial newsletter publication relying on Federal exemption under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 (15 U.S.C. § 80b-2(a)(11)) and individual State exemptions under Section 401(f) of the Uniform Securities Act. We do not provide any investment advice, nor do we make any investment recommendations. You are able to view the BigRiverReport.com portfolio and all of the trades made for the portfolio in order to aid your research efforts, but ultimately the decisions you make for your portfolio are your responsibility. I believe the research and work that we are doing at BigRiverReport.com will improve your investment performance, but there is no guarantee that you will be able to utilize the information for financial gain. In fact, you could incur financial losses. The BigRiverReport.com portfolio is managed in a tax deferred account. Each individuals financial situation is different. Please consult your own financial advisors and tax professionals prior to investing.

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