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Mozoz
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An infrequent investor, with a broad range of interests, from tech to telecom to reinsurance to anything thats undervalued. Grasping, sometimes sucessfully, for the holy grail of building a portfolio of asymmetric strategies that minimise downside with plenty of upside!
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deconstructing risk
  • Lancashire's Recent Lackluster Stock Price 0 comments
    Sep 6, 2013 7:43 PM

    Lancashire (LRE.L) is a London quoted specialty insurer that writes short tail (mainly insurance) business in aviation, marine, energy, property catastrophe and terrorism classes. Set up after Hurricane Katrina, the company operates a high risk high reward business model, tightly focused by the experienced hand of CEO Richard Brindle, with an emphasis on disciplined underwriting, tight capital management and generous shareholder returns. Shareholder's equity is managed within a range between $1 billion and $1.5 billion with numerous shareholder friendly actions such as special dividends resulting in a cumulative shareholder return of 177% since the company's inception over 7 years ago.

    I am a fan of the company and own some shares, although not as many as in the past. I like their straight forward approach and their difference in a sector full of firms that seem to read from each other's scripts (increasingly peppered with the latest risk management speak). That said, it does have a higher risk profile than many of its peers, as can be seem when you compare their PMLs against capital (see post of my blog for comparison). That profile allows it to achieve such superior shareholder returns. The market has rewarded Lancashire with a premium valuation based upon the high returns achieved over its short history.

    However, over the past 6 months, Lancashire's share price has underperformed against its peers, initially due to concerns over property catastrophe pricing pressures and more recently it's announcement of the purchase of Lloyds of London based Cathedral Capital.

    (click to enlarge)

    Cathedral's results over the past 5 years have been good, if not in the same league as Lancashire's, and the price paid by Lancashire at 160% of net tangible assets is not cheap. Given the financing needs of the acquisition, the lack of room for any of Lancashire's usual special dividend treats in the near term has been a contributing factor to the recent share price declines in my opinion.

    Based upon the proforma net tangible assets of Lancashire at end Q2 as per the Cathedral presentation and the circular for the share offering, the graph below shows the net tangible valuation multiples of a number of the London market insurers using net tangible asset values as at end Q2 with market values based upon 30th August prices.

    (click to enlarge)

    The multiples show that the market is now valuing Lancashire's business at a level more akin to its peers rather than the premium valuation it previously enjoyed. Clearly, the acquisition of Cathedral raises questions over whether Lancashire will maintain its uniqueness in the future. That is certainly a concern. Also, integrating the firms and their cultures is an execution risk and heading into the peak of the US wind session could prove to be unwise timing.

    Notwithstanding these issues, Brindle is an experienced operator and I would suspect that he is taking full advantage of the current arbitrage opportunities offered by an influx of ILS capacity (some of new capacity pretty naive). It may take a quarter or two to fully understand the impact of the Cathedral acquisition on Lancashire's risk/reward profile. I look forward to watching the company's progress through the integration and past the peak US wind season.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: Hold some LRE.L looking to increase position if entry point attractive

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