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  • QuickChat #243, September 9, 2012 251 comments
    Sep 9, 2012 12:42 PM

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    "Hiawassee" by stan bruns.

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  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    Hiawassee makes me laugh out lot for its whimsy and light-handedness.
    Every elementary school child was taught this formula: Curved stream or road in front, grass at sides, a mountain or hills, and some clouds and sky.
    Some teachers permitted birds in the sky, so long as they looked like little check marks. All of it was centered from the middle of the road in the middle of the paper in the middle of the mountain...
    Thanks for a trip down memory lane TB.
    9 Sep 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    That's the basic (emphasis on the term "basic") idea of these simple abstracts. I also purposely use the primary colors a child might choose. There are a few more subtle wrinkles in some of these from a design perspective, but the link to a very youthful and vibrant perspective is strong.

     

    The more intricate and outlandishly difficult my other work has become, the more these simple artistic statments make sense to me...

     

    LOL, although it could also just be dementia setting in a tad early.
    9 Sep 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    Is this true about AAPL?
    http://bit.ly/RBdgmE
    9 Sep 2012, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >OG ... Apparently the functionality is real:
    "Apparatus and methods for changing one or more functional or operational aspects of a wireless device, such as upon the occurrence of a certain event. In one embodiment, the event comprises detecting that the wireless device is within range of one or more other devices. In another variant, the event comprises the wireless device associating with a certain access point. In this manner, various aspects of device functionality may be enabled or restricted (device "policies"). This policy enforcement capability is useful for a variety of reasons, including for example to disable noise and/or light emanating from wireless devices (such as at a movie theater), for preventing wireless devices from communicating with other wireless devices (such as in academic settings), and for forcing certain electronic devices to enter "sleep mode" when entering a sensitive area. "

     

    http://1.usa.gov/PUSXBG

     

    People don't see the value of protecting those 10 Rights we pretty much gave away under the abomination that is the Patriot Act, what's not to like. There is no lack of other people willing to abuse what the American people willingly gave up and industry will be happy to help.
    9 Sep 2012, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, DR.
    I guess it's time to carry a separate camera, maybe a spy camera that looks like eye glasses!
    9 Sep 2012, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >OG ... I'd be willing to bet that any public event the device feature is used for would make your little spy cam good for a very boring evening at an alternate location.

     

    Government it will continue to be used against us (and I'm not talking about politicians) until people quit living in fear of other Americans & get involved. This is designed to be a participatory democracy. Use it or lose it ... and right now real people just don't care as much as they like complaining.
    9 Sep 2012, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4182) | Send Message
     
    " This is designed to be a participatory democracy. Use it or lose it ... and right now real people just don't care as much as they like complaining."

     

    Clicking 'Like' is just insufficient salute to the sentiments, DR.
    10 Sep 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    Romney, to me, fits the ideal candidate as described by Grover Norquist.

     

    http://bit.ly/NUPVSj
    9 Sep 2012, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5396) | Send Message
     
    Let the battle over budget cuts begin...This is a statement from Kraft.
    Food stamps are 1/6th of their business. Look at the chart on KFT on Friday. The company announced a currency related charge that would affect the new global company earnings by .15 / shr. That on top of this hit the stock by $2 .... Expect to see much more of this soon. Fiscal Cliff, here we come. Let the wars begin. I also bet you that KFT was short the euro big time as the reason for the big earnings hit.

     

    10:45 PM Food stamp cuts are bad for business, warns incoming Kraft (KFT) CEO Tony Vernon, who says a minimum one-sixth of company revenue comes from program usage. Proposals floating around Congress would cut funding for food stamps as health advocates point out the program is a corporate subsidy to the nation's processed food giants. [Consumer] 9 Comments
    10 Sep 2012, 03:44 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5396) | Send Message
     
    The IMF Lagarde also attended the APEC summit....to help draft the bond buying program.

     

    8:18 AM The most interesting part of a George Soros treatise on the EU crisis is its brief preamble in which the author says the world has changed since he penned the essay. Merkel's siding with Draghi over the Bundesbank's Weidmann on the subject of bond purchases was a "game-changing event," writes Soros. Taking full advantage, Draghi has "promised unlimited purchases" of troubled nations' sovereign debt. "The continued survival of the euro is assured." [Global & FX] 20 Comments
    10 Sep 2012, 03:49 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5396) | Send Message
     
    STudent Loan debt & defaults, This is a long article but worth reading as it is the next big shoe to drop. A $1Trillion shoe. I have a friend, 28 y/o graduate, married 4 months, unemployed & can't find a job, husband just got fired, she has $40,000 student loan debt that repayment starts in October. She stated that they wouldn't try to buy a house or anything out of fear of losing their jobs at any point in time..thus the big buildout in apartment buildings nationwide for an entire generation. Rent is outrageous in these too.

     

    I have harped on demographics changing the numbers to the point that we can't really get a grip on things, this is another one. Baby boomer retirement is big on one end, the young strapped with this debt load is like a second house payment...therefore they are not going to buy anything thus forget about consumer spending pulling us out of recession.
    http://bit.ly/QepLWP/
    10 Sep 2012, 04:29 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5396) | Send Message
     
    You got to love campaigning....Wonder what Ryan thinks of this?

     

    Romney to keep parts of Obamacare:
    http://yhoo.it/PhxqWO
    10 Sep 2012, 05:54 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    His platform has always been repeal and replace.
    10 Sep 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    AYR has been very very good to me. But check out FLY if you like AYR.
    10 Sep 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2299) | Send Message
     
    When AYR was mentioned on JJC I checked out FLY -- and there is a lot to like, OG, although not sure why pps has been dropping since their big presentation 9/5-6. Considering a starter position.
    10 Sep 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    I noticed that these leasing stocks go down when the airline stocks fall. I didn't check, but it wouldn't surprise me if the airline stocks are falling. Anyway, it looks like FLY is priced better for a higher dividend, imo. And this sector is still unloved! These are value stocks.
    10 Sep 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2299) | Send Message
     
    Decided to take a small starter position on FLY @ $12.89. I don't like the low volume liquidity but this is a scale in for a longer term divvy position. I liked FLY because it is delivering growth with demand for more fuel efficient aircraft globally; it has no debt maturity before 2018; its pps is near book value; its yield is near 7%; it beat estimates during the last 3 quarters; and it appears to have a shareholder focused CEO who can execute: http://bloom.bg/QzDYQe
    10 Sep 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    The volume on FLY is better than AYR's.
    10 Sep 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2299) | Send Message
     
    FLY up 3.5% ($13.34) since purchase yesterday. I'll take that anytime on a 7% yielder -- even with low volume liquidity. Perhaps it's just dumb luck -- to be reversed when Mr. Bernanke disappoints this week.
    11 Sep 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    You made a good buy Mercy~
    11 Sep 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2299) | Send Message
     
    Thx OG. And tell me -- do you still like Pulse Seismic PSD:CA? I was looking to add on the next dip.
    mj
    11 Sep 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    I haven't been watching it. I'll have to take a look.
    11 Sep 2012, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    PSD looks healthy. They've retired over half their debt, bought back shares, and went ex-dividend last week. They lost their CEO and have a temporary one who is a VP of the company and their management team seems intact while they hunt for a replacement.
    It looks pretty good still. It's just not that far from the top of the chart, so it is not a bargain here. But on a pullback, and with time on your side since you can figure the next quarterly dividend (if there is one) would have an ex-date in the first week of December, makes it worth watching, imo.
    The two things that the jury is out on: They spent a lot of cash, so are they anticipating replenishing the coffers? I don't like share buy backs to unlock value usually. And of course, what will the new CEO bring to the table?
    All in all, it looks viable but I'm not loving it.
    11 Sep 2012, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2299) | Send Message
     
    Many thanks, OG! Seismic players (especially out of Norway -- e.g. TGS Nopec and PGS) have been great investments for me and I'm always looking for worthwhile North American players to add.
    11 Sep 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    (AYR) Interesting investment thesis on Aircastle, a company that leases planes to airlines globally. (e.g. leases to South African Airlines, Sri Lankan Airlines and Iberia Airlines, just to name the S's (Iberia being in Spain))

     

    http://bit.ly/PaDtsJ
    10 Sep 2012, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2299) | Send Message
     
    Jon, I was watching AYR for a short-term trade after Cramer gave it his blessing last week -- FWIW. His followers are likely to plow in while the shorts are likely to counter-balance.
    10 Sep 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Ugh. Thanks MJ.

     

    I try to stay away from the JJC show.
    10 Sep 2012, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2299) | Send Message
     
    I hear you -- but often good to know in advance where his followers are running to.
    10 Sep 2012, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    SA will alert you to Cramerevents...

     

    Whether you want to follow them or avoid them, its best to KNOW what they are. As annoying xperts and analists go, at least with Cramer its easy to track what he's up to. His soap box on CNBC is always a powerful voice, right or wrong.
    10 Sep 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    From Mineweb today, how Grouse management can impact mining operations and the different governmental bodies that have their eyes on the prize:
    http://bit.ly/PissJs
    10 Sep 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Pimco's Bill Gross advocates for gold: http://bloom.bg/QzvGYG

     

    CNBC pundit suggests debt monetization is a ponzi scheme, everyone laughs (joke's on who?): http://bit.ly/O8toLV
    10 Sep 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Hi Folks

     

    Does anyone expect any correction in these markets soon? Was considering buying PSEC but have a concern that after the election we might see a downward movement no matter who gets elected.

     

    Printing money has had no positive effect and at some point should be considered useless. But i could use a lesson here if i am mistaken

     

    Am i way off base here?

     

    Thanks
    map
    10 Sep 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4182) | Send Message
     
    "Printing money has had no positive effect and at some point should be considered useless. But i could use a lesson here if i am mistaken"

     

    The money printing is bad, MAP, but consider this situation -
    http://on.wtsp.com/PiGL0l
    10 Sep 2012, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    D-inv

     

    Now that isn't so bad. If you didn't like the guy.

     

    map
    10 Sep 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I am long PSEC, have been for a long time. Yield is still very attractive, and I consider it one of the best of breed. I believe a general correction will damage PSEC's share price less than most equities, and often there is a flight toward the high yielders in such events.
    10 Sep 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4182) | Send Message
     
    "I am long PSEC ... believe a general correction will damage PSEC's share price less than most equities, and often there is a flight toward the high yielders in such events."

     

    ditto
    10 Sep 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    I also am long (FSC) both are good value plays with room to run IMHO. They may be back in the buy box. http://yhoo.it/TD7BTv
    10 Sep 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Yup... FSC announced an offering after market close today. They are down 2.1% in the after-market... that would take them down about 23 cents. Offerings are normal things for this type of stock (Business Development Companies - BCDs).

     

    The price drop will increase their yield. At 10.72 (10.95 - .23) the yield should be around 10.7% with good upside potential.
    10 Sep 2012, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I have been waiting for a good entry point for FSC...
    10 Sep 2012, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Phillip Davis with some good points today http://bit.ly/PbnhaI

     

    "Not only are the "odds" that the Fed will ease on Thursday up to 99% but the swaps are forecasting 0.25% interest all the way into 2015 now."

     

    related Bloomberg article: http://bloom.bg/O8FvIW

     

    [My comment: 99% odds that the Fed will ease? Seems bad either way. If it is that expected, it can't be that effective. If it is that expected, and it doesn't happen it's dangerous.]
    10 Sep 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Phil misses sometimes... And though its not that he misses a LOT, when he does miss, it is by a mile.

     

    That "99%" comment seems to me a clear overestimation. I also doubt that such near-certainty is built into the markets already, nor will a non-QE event constitute a disaster (because there is such a huge expectation of QE already in the markets).

     

    I believe he has this one wrong.
    10 Sep 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    Might be better if the Fed would just impose "parking fees" on the trillions(?) parked as excess reserves rather than paying them to park it.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Sep 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >tripleblack ... That 99% comment was based on what Citibank put out as a prediction, not his own.

     

    http://bit.ly/Q9u2x7;-rbs-securities-90-50...

     

    so I'm sure he typed with a little chuckle.
    10 Sep 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    So, Phil was running down the idea... Makes more sense that way. I believe the zirp until 2015 part.
    10 Sep 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4182) | Send Message
     
    "Phillip Davis with some good points today http://bit.ly/PbnhaI"

     

    LT reported a quote, "'Merkel's siding with Draghi over the Bundesbank's Weidmann on the subject of bond purchases was a "game-changing event,' writes Soros" that makes me suspect QE3 will not take place soon.
    10 Sep 2012, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    (FEED) has more than doubled since August 27th. Up 17.38% today.
    10 Sep 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    congrats
    10 Sep 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I got out even to the board when it was about $1. What is it now... OK, $.52. I have not tracked it in a long while, I'll add it back to my watch list, thanks...
    10 Sep 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Heres an interesting article

     

    http://huff.to/RO5Ot4

     

    map
    10 Sep 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    I own GFI :(
    10 Sep 2012, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5074) | Send Message
     
    Interesting video from Bloomberg TV with Niall Ferguson from Royce. His prediction of 20%-30% sliver demand increase comes at the very end.

     

    http://bloom.bg/O8ZQht
    10 Sep 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Yes, note how he is pointing to poor management among miners and a penchant to dilute shareholders and invest in new projects with iffy earnings and futures. Good reasons to avoid miners which DO resemble his remarks.

     

    The call for 20% higher silver demand over the next few years is believable, even if all that happens is that the economy starts to grow at a normal pace again. I would hesitate to translate his prediction into a short term strategy...
    10 Sep 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    They are turning on the management and the unions, Something seems amiss here. I think there may be more here than meets the eye.
    10 Sep 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Looks like the government sanctioned unions are being challenged by new players...

     

    In South Afrika, the government is very much in bed with the unions (er, resembles some other governments located near where I live) and a threat to them is a threat to the guvmint.

     

    This Mathjunwa had best watch his back...
    10 Sep 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    Consumer credit expected +$10B came in down $3.3B at the 15:00 report today.

     

    Yep, QEx, or a reasonable facsimile, is on the front burner as the cure for excessive debt is more excessive debt - if not in the private sector, then in the public sector.

     

    Nobody in power appears to believe Mises.

     

    Now, market should get "Party Time" as they certainly believe BB will help out even though we now know the metrics say more money has reducing impact on the *real* economy.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Sep 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    "Nobody in power appears to believe in Mises"

     

    - sure they do... they go there all the time to get their mufflers fixed...
    10 Sep 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    LoL! Well, they're not getting good service - I can still hear all the hot air noise spewing out!

     

    HardToLove
    10 Sep 2012, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Crowd sourcing to fund space exploration. http://yhoo.it/SyB95l
    10 Sep 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    All well and good and I support them...

     

    But I am looking for more private efforts with a profit-based business plan.

     

    I'll donate a few dollars for a projects like Uwingoetc, but the real vacuum right now is in manned space and cheap, recyclable heavy lifter tech.

     

    When it comes to space investments, I recycle to my ancient L5 Society days... He who controls the orbitals rules...
    10 Sep 2012, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Me too. I'm looking for an investment.
    10 Sep 2012, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    Russian stocks cheaper than Greek stocks? Surely I jest...but it's true:

     

    http://bit.ly/TZlI1j
    11 Sep 2012, 02:04 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5396) | Send Message
     
    Small Business sentiment improving, this is sorta reinforced by Ford announcing to bring back to Detroit 1200 jobs from Mexico for the Focus, and

     

    "“Call me Pollyanna, but me thinks I see green shoots sprouting in the U.S. economy,” said Sherry Cooper, chief economist of BMO Financial Group."

     

    http://on.mktw.net/RHlYQj
    11 Sep 2012, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    "Poor Employment Numbers Mean The Economy Will Be Bad"

     

    Steve Hansen - does a good job and I watch him. A couple years back I suggested that employment numbers had become leading indicators. Steve's on that same path and a few others I've heard as well.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2012, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    LT, I don't see the intuitive leap from a major auto manufacturer repatriating 1200 jobs to "Small Business sentiment improving".

     

    I have a very old but I believe good metric to gauge small business sentiment, ie, the percentages of small scale retail vacancies. This is also something everyone can monitor in their own region. Just take note of the "For Rent" signs in the windows of strip centers and main street. If you see new businesses moving in, its a good sign. If you see old businesses closing the doors, bad. If you just see dusty windows and you know the space has been vacant since 2008... Flatline.
    11 Sep 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >LT ... I was watching Bloomberg this morning and they had on the president of the NFIB. He went down the list of worries. First on the list was rising healthcare costs and threw in this is the 18th year in a row for this worry. First on the list of problems was the lack of customer's, demand.
    11 Sep 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5396) | Send Message
     
    That post was actually two different articles. By two different authors. Small business sentiment did rise in August. I posted the Ford move to show it is not big, but that is how things are "slowly / gradually getting better...that's 1200 more USA jobs than we had.
    These little moves by several is why sentiment it rising IMO.
    11 Sep 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    LT, I read the linked article closely, and came away with a different take from the Marketwatch headline, and I suspect the NFIB would see it my way as well.

     

    May, June, and July the numbers were down, while Aug saw a 1.7 pt increase to a 92.9 rating. This in turn is still down from Feb when it stood at 94.5, the high for the year.

     

    Now, it is possible to see green shoots while the recent trend and the trend for the year are down, but this evidence from 1 month doesn't work for me.

     

    I used to be a member of the NFIB, so I know their bias (they are hugely supportive of their largely Republican membership) is not friendly to the current administration. If anything their ratings would be suspect for being down for the year and weak in general. I have also read that their total membership has been dropping like a rock since 2008, though I would attribute that to the large number of business failures and bankruptcies rather than their particular political leanings.

     

    I am a huge booster of Ford and frequent (though not current) stockholder. Ford had originally intended to move a plant building crossover SUV's from Europe to the US, but canceled those plans. Perhaps it had something to do with their negotiations with the UAW, which has refused to cut the same contract with Ford which it has inked with their competition.

     

    Its good news and indeed encouraging that Ford is choosing to do more work in the US, and I still hope they will be able to repatriate jobs from Europe as well. Perhaps Government Motors and Fiat, er, GM and Chrysler, will take the hint.
    11 Sep 2012, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    TRIPLE

     

    Great point as the strip malls in rural NY have quite a few FOR RENT!! Most stores having these signs have had them for quite some time as well.

     

    Even my wife who has zero interest in the markets does have an interest in shopping and has mentioned it to me.!!!

     

    This has some serious consequences as i hear the landlords won't budge on their rent demands either. So somethings gotta give.

     

    map
    11 Sep 2012, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >MAP ... Don't feel this is a small town, rural or limited problem. Here in Texas, in the growing Metroplex of Dallas-Ft Worth many neighborhood centers & commercial malls & store withing operating malls have been vacant for years now. Top that off with rents are rising, albeit slowly, because of population growth. God bless urban sprawl.
    11 Sep 2012, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6166) | Send Message
     
    You can go to the FRB website and review the frb Snapshot report for vacancy rates.
    12 Sep 2012, 06:03 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    DRICH.....No, i expected it was going on all over, i am just exposed to this area which WAS growing until 5 years ago. Appreciate the info on Texas as well.

     

    MAP
    12 Sep 2012, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4182) | Send Message
     
    :-) There are green shoots and then there are green shoots.

     

    http://bit.ly/ODmzni
    11 Sep 2012, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Uncle sugar will buy what the average consumer won't touch. Whether it's a tank or a Chevy Volt.
    11 Sep 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2299) | Send Message
     
    Thanks D-inv for that link. I shared it on StockTalk with credit to you. It never ceases to amaze me to see the spending liberties our government takes with deficit $$$$$$$$$$ -- or should I say our taxpayer $$$$$$$$. A $40k per vehicle fleet is something surplus countries like Norway can afford -- but certainly not a government with a $16T on balance sheet deficit and lots more off the balance sheet. Whatever happened to spending within your means? I know -- I know -- what a quaint idea.
    11 Sep 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Thinking about the above employment number conversation and prior conversations, it occurs to me that "the most important indicator" has become whatever is negative to give the central banks an excuse to print more money.

     

    So, in order for the central banks to not want to print more money and raise rates to a healthy level we only need: to have a low inflation outlook, a low chance of deflation outlook, rising home prices, unemployment below 4%, a stock market within 5% of its 3-year high, no wars, a Congress that passes a budget for the first time in 15 years, and Santa Claus to be discovered to be real.

     

    ... probably missed a few more things...

     

    http://bit.ly/PmFyVU

     

    Hard to believe we actually had rates above 4% for almost 50 years straight. Those years must have been perfect.
    11 Sep 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Blocked from your link. No surprise there. Interest rates are being held at artificial lows and the intent is to keep it that way as long as possible. Banks won't lend because the rate is artificially low. Investors aren't using stable value funds or conventional debt for the same reason. While the idea is to keep mortgage rates low it's not working out as planned.
    11 Sep 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4182) | Send Message
     
    "So, in order for the central banks to not want to print more money and raise rates to a healthy level we only need: to have a low inflation outlook, a low chance of deflation outlook, rising home prices, unemployment below 4%, a stock market within 5% of its 3-year high, no wars, a Congress that passes a budget for the first time in 15 years, and Santa Claus to be discovered to be real.

     

    ... probably missed a few more things..."

     

    Peter Pan, Tinker Bell, and the Lost boys.
    11 Sep 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Is that ticking I hear from the stomach of the alligator in the corner or the national debt clock?
    11 Sep 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8503) | Send Message
     
    Gold, Your probably missing a lot of gold.
    11 Sep 2012, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Funny... Moody's now threatens to follow last year's move by S&P and cut the U.S. rating down a notch from AAA
    http://bit.ly/NmsIqJ

     

    a government that's effectively paying negative interest rates on its bonds, owns it own printing press enabling it to create money at will, and for reasons beyond my comprehension is still the currency of choice when there's a flight to safety... is not AAA

     

    sure... I understand the debt and all the other issues... but under *their* system of ratings, it don't make no sense
    11 Sep 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    Jon: They probably want to help ol' Ben out again! Remember what happened last time when S&P cut? Rates tanked - Ben's goal to "help housing" (yeah right, while paying banks to park funds at zero risk) and lower debt-service for the U.S. GGovernment (unspoken goal but acknowledged effect).

     

    Take us down 4 notches!

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Ben's new song...

     

    (to the tune of Take Me Home Country Road)

     

    Downgrade me
    To the place
    Where I belong
    Triple B
    Junk rate-ing

     

    Let me print
    All the time
    Without worry
    Downgrade me
    Rating agency
    11 Sep 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2299) | Send Message
     
    You are truly multi-talented Jon. LOL
    11 Sep 2012, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4182) | Send Message
     
    For those with a view that November election results will affect markets. Poll taken September 4 - 9 (during and after Democrat convention) would suggest market moves sideways.

     

    http://bit.ly/RIi9dL
    11 Sep 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    OT: Justice I thought you all might enjoy.

     

    Just a little humor to start your Wednesday… J

     

    This took place in Charlotte, North Carolina.

     

    A lawyer purchased a box of very rare and expensive cigars, then insured them against, among other things, fire.

     

    Within a month, having smoked his entire stockpile of these great cigars, the lawyer filed a claim against the insurance company.

     

    In his claim, the lawyer stated the cigars were lost 'in a series of ‘small fires.'

     

    The insurance company refused to pay, citing the obvious reason, that the man had consumed the cigars in the normal fashion.

     

    The lawyer sued - and WON! Delivering the ruling, the judge agreed with the insurance company that the claim was frivolous. The judge stated nevertheless, that the lawyer held a policy from the company, in which it had warranted that the cigars were insurable and also guaranteed that it would insure them against fire, without defining what is considered to be unacceptable 'fire' and was obligated to pay the claim.

     

    Rather than endure lengthy and costly appeal process, the insurance company accepted the ruling and paid $15,000 to the lawyer for his loss of the cigars that perished in the 'fires'.

     

    NOW FOR THE BEST PART...
    After the lawyer cashed the check, the insurance company had him arrested on 24 counts of ARSON!!! With his own insurance claim and testimony from the previous case being used against him, the lawyer was convicted of intentionally burning his insured property and was sentenced to 24 months in jail and a $24,000 fine.

     

    Thanks to my daughter for sending this to me.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    HTL: I was told that story by a heavy set, suspenders wearing, good ole southern attorney in Copan, Honduras, at least six years ago. You recounted the story perfectly.

     

    Thanks!
    11 Sep 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Maya: Greetings. I hadn't heard the story before and whether it's six years or six days old it's hilarious.
    11 Sep 2012, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    That story's been floating around for forty years. It's an oldie but goody.
    Say, have you heard that Bibi asked for a meeting and was turned down? Potus can't spare the time in his schedule. I guess between his golf game and his re-election campaign, he is just too busy.
    Meantime the Egyptians scaled the wall into the US Embassy in Cairo and tore down the flag and burned it.
    Guess that's their memorial to 9/11, this somber day.
    You know how I love NBL? I'm not holding it now.
    11 Sep 2012, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    I just read the intro to Rand Paul's new book. It's called "Government Bullies
    How Everyday Americans are Being Harrassed, Abused and Imprisoned by the Feds."
    That's a timely topic!
    11 Sep 2012, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Well this move is interesting by Obama!!

     

    http://huff.to/NnnUkX

     

    map
    11 Sep 2012, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    All major Canadian exports including energy, autos, agriculture, forest products and machinery-and-equipment collapsed in the latest report. Canadian analysts are shocked by the news. Virtually all major exports fell sharply, including energy, autos, agriculture, forest products and machinery-and-equipment. The overall drop was 3.4 per cent, paced by an even larger 5 per cent decline in exports to the U.S. – Canada’s largest customer.

     

    From: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
    http://tinyurl.com/8pf...
    11 Sep 2012, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4182) | Send Message
     
    "From: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
    http://tinyurl.com/8pf..."

     

    One might say that news gets one's attention.
    12 Sep 2012, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    What I'm saddened about is that none of us yacked about 9/11 today, including me. Up at the local tavern tonight, a man came in...I recognized him, but don't know him...and he bought a round of shots in tribute.

     

    This day, now yesterday, changed the world.

     

    Let us not forget what happened 11 years ago.
    12 Sep 2012, 01:36 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    MAYA

     

    Being a New Yorker it's a day we will NEVER forget, just try to move on. We have first responders, police, fireman still suffering from the toxic smoke. So we are reminded of it almost daily.

     

    Other states bring it up once a year. It's in our papers weekly. Just sickening actually..

     

    map
    12 Sep 2012, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    Our consulate in Libya was set on fire and 1 died. Armed gunmen breached the compound.
    http://usat.ly/RKRVY8
    12 Sep 2012, 04:38 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    Update: 2 Americans dead in attack on US Embassy in Libya
    12 Sep 2012, 05:45 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    The U.S. ambassador to Libya and three other embassy staff were killed in a rocket attack on their car.
    12 Sep 2012, 07:16 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8503) | Send Message
     
    Bet this gets little traffic from the news because BO supported the new govt there in Libya. I think he did the right thing and no one could predict the outcome but the news would not want any bad news to be placed on thier golden child.
    12 Sep 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    DOUBLE

     

    Oh it got traction !!!!

     

    map
    12 Sep 2012, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    Who likes VNR???
    12 Sep 2012, 05:24 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4182) | Send Message
     
    Looking at VNR now, OG. That monthly div has appeal, but want to know more about their current lease holdings, production, proven reserves, etc.
    12 Sep 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4182) | Send Message
     
    FWIW, the September cash distro of $0.20/unit is payable to holders of record cob today, 9/12.
    12 Sep 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    German Constitutional Court refuses to block the ESM. However, the 'Unlimited' ECB Bazooka (ESM) is now capped at EUR 190bn in support from Germany. The market reaction appears to be priced in so far, except for Gold. More detail over on the EU blog.
    12 Sep 2012, 06:33 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Got Gold and Silver?

     

    (September 12, 2012) Fed Seen Starting QE3 While Extending Rate Pledge to 2015. From: By Joshua Zumbrun and Jeff Kearns.

     

    The Federal Reserve is likely to announce a third round of bond purchases tomorrow, according to almost two-thirds of economists in a Bloomberg survey, while also extending the duration of its zero-interest-rate policy into 2015. http://tinyurl.com/9y2...
    ---
    12 Sep 2012, 06:44 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8503) | Send Message
     
    Treasury must be running low on cash.
    12 Sep 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4182) | Send Message
     
    "Treasury must be running low on cash."

     

    Now how can that be. It just sold a bunch of AIG at a profit. (sarc)
    12 Sep 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8503) | Send Message
     
    What prompted that sale. Low cash....I would guess.
    12 Sep 2012, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    South African Army Put On High Alert In Response To Nationwide Miner Strike. http://tinyurl.com/lj484m
    12 Sep 2012, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8503) | Send Message
     
    I watched a clip from Bloomberg on the slaughter of about 30 miners and then that clip disappeared within the hour. It was very graphic and showed them being mowed down then the wounded crawling away after the shooting stopped. I was suppressed it made it to the web.
    12 Sep 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Farage's Berating Rebuttal Of Barosso's 'State-Of-The-Union' Banalities http://tinyurl.com/9d3...
    12 Sep 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Found this article with a video clip from the "movie" that has caused protests in Egypt, Libya, etc, and some awful deaths http://bit.ly/TSFHkZ
    12 Sep 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6166) | Send Message
     
    So if Mormons are made fun of during the election, does this example mean its OK for them to start burning things down and killing people?
    12 Sep 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    only if Terry Jones promotes it.
    12 Sep 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8503) | Send Message
     
    It may have been a 9/11 11th aniversary attack....not about the movie. Latest word on the street.
    12 Sep 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2299) | Send Message
     
    Here's a great compilation of technical charts which track key economic indicators -- as compared to the S&P merry climb up its own path. Clive Maund argues that "Investors in US Stock Markets [Are Being] Set Up to be Fleeced..." He rightly points out (unlike our media cheerleaders) that "A big reason for the US stockmarket’s rally last week was nothing to do with the economy and everything to do with the steep decline in the [US] dollar." In fact if you look at what's happened during the past 40 days the USD has fallen 5% while the S&P 500 has risen 5.5% during that same period. Since US stocks are denominated in USDs -- that 5.5% rise suddenly doesn't look so impressive. IMO this article serves as a good reality check as we await "the all important" voice of the Fed tomorrow.

     

    http://bit.ly/QLuGTD
    12 Sep 2012, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    We ought to report market values in ... 1985(?) dollars. Or compared to gold or oil or Corn Flakes or ...

     

    Market doesn't care about the economy - it's been "financialized" and cares only about notional value and not at all about the economy. As long as corps. can cut workers and raise bottom line regardless of revenues, market is happy, happy, happy.

     

    Oh well, we play the hand we're dealt I guess.

     

    Great article too. Thanks Mercy!

     

    HardToLove
    12 Sep 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5396) | Send Message
     
    Good find MJ, and perfect response from HTL.

     

    What will corps do when "mandatory hiring" is introduced & enforced?
    12 Sep 2012, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Mercy. Considering Septembers typical history, this one has me perplexed -- that is if I don't think about all the QE3 honky tonk, and the dollar weakening.

     

    The assembled charts are downright frightening. Excellent article. Liked how the author dispensed humor despite his foreboding forecast.

     

    Suggestion for all readers of QC, don't let Mercy's link go unread.

     

    I've been religiously following EcoIntersect's insider selling vs. buying for several months now. Every week it seems the fat cats are selling far more than they are buying.

     

    Here's last weeks selling vs. buying (scroll down about a third to see the article in the right side of the page):

     

    http://bit.ly/sAZYU8

     

    ####

     

    Since I mentioned FEED a couple of days ago, I should add that yesterday I sold half of my smallish position. Wish I would have sold all of it; down 26.7% today. Lost a room or two on my house money.
    12 Sep 2012, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4182) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for that reference, MJ. Worthwhile read.
    12 Sep 2012, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5396) | Send Message
     
    4:51 PM Maybe the best reason the Fed needs to undertake QE3 is its balance sheet has stopped expanding, i.e., to do nothing is to allow tight monetary policy. The last time the adjusted monetary base turned negative on a Y/Y basis, writes John Carney, we got QE2. [U.S. Economy] 2 Comments
    13 Sep 2012, 06:04 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Carney is the head of Canada's central bank... and one of the only central bankers I trust.
    13 Sep 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5396) | Send Message
     
    Sweden proposes corp tax cut to 22% (IMO, could be to stop outflow of money)

     

    http://on.mktw.net/OrWtb3
    13 Sep 2012, 06:14 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Smart move by the Swedes. That's how you attract investments to enhance growth and decrease unemployment.
    13 Sep 2012, 06:19 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Negative article on PSEC for those interested http://bit.ly/Qeniyh
    13 Sep 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Jon. Rather than spend a lot of time dissecting the author's weak position, I would sugges the reader go through the very good slate of comments.

     

    Disclosure: I am long PSEC, and intend to stay that way for at least medium term.
    13 Sep 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    The author of the negative article was taken to the wood shed by the more savvy investors. The guy clearly does not know what he is talking about.

     

    I am seeing the publication strategy of filing an opposition article on the day after an article on the same stock more frequently on SA. The day before the negative article was published, Tim Plaehn published his positive article
    http://tinyurl.com/8s8....
    13 Sep 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    FPA: Hm, maybe some heavy shorters have a cadre of "Publication Trolls" on hand to counter any sentiment that goes against them?

     

    HardToLove
    13 Sep 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    FPA...

     

    Actually... if one was trying to actually earn money from publishing on SA, writing oppositional articles that tick a lot of people off and generate a lot of comments would be a decent strategy.

     

    TB...

     

    I should have added that the comments might be more informative than the article. You're right.
    13 Sep 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    The Fed is going to buy $40 Bil (a month?!?!) mortgages.
    What Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae put together wasn't enough.
    They want to "drive down" rates. HUH?
    There's your QE3.
    Between this and the protests/attacks of our embassies in Egypt, Libya, and Yemen, small protests in Bangladesh and Iraq,Morocco, Sudan and Tunisia and nuclear sword rattling with Iran, the markets are up. Go figure.
    13 Sep 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Oy, Gee: Greetings. They also reiterated that their intention is to keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future. None of this is new. I suspect there are activities that aren't readily discernible taking place today driving the market. PPT at work?
    13 Sep 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    Here's a summary of Operation Twist continuing, and reactions:

     

    http://bit.ly/U9vder
    13 Sep 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2299) | Send Message
     
    OG, I agree with the "HUH" reaction -- especially when you factor in that the expanded MBS buying announcement is only $20B/mo higher than what they are already buying; i.e. crumbs in the world of MBS.
    13 Sep 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    What I'm really puzzling over is how keeping mortgage rates lower is going to help much when the labor participation rate keeps falling (these folks won't be buying and likely not even refinancing) and college grads, if/when they do get jobs, have trillion$ in debt on their backs (they won't be buying) and folks that do get jobs are getting constantly-reducing wages (can't qualify or trying to save?) and the beneficiaries will be ... the big outfits buying blocks of foreclosed properties to rent out?

     

    <*scratching head*> How exactly is this going to help the economy? By making financial interests wealthier?

     

    "Stupid is as stupid does".

     

    All's good, the market (financial interests) got what it wanted - the economy, not so much.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    13 Sep 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    I might add the unemployment numbers were worse than expected as well. Just doesn't make sense....at least to me..

     

    map
    13 Sep 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    OG

     

    Goes to show you how manipulated these markets are. IMHO it's best to be in the metals now because at some point the markets will correct.

     

    Just maybe after the election. Every week i read how Billions of dollars are being removed from the markets yet they keep staying up.

     

    Kinda like Muhammad Ali..They are taking a pounding but won't go down (sorry, ducking )

     

    map
    13 Sep 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Is anyone else having this problem. ALL comments for the last 3 days stay as new comments. Even after i read them...

     

    I have tried to click not follow then reclick follow this concentrator but nothing is working. I still get 3 new comments , which will be correct but all 3 days are still in red as a new comment so i have to scrool down and guess which ones are actually new.

     

    confuse anyone with my issue?

     

    map
    13 Sep 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    MAP: I don't have that problem. Try logging out and back in. If that doesn't work, support@seekingalpha.com might know what to do.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Sep 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    HT

     

    Now this was wierd, i clicked on the notebook and it said 2 new comments. Then it only showed those 2 comments. BUT when i went back and reopened the concentrator all 3 days came back as new.

     

    Wierd, i guess i will contact support. Thanks

     

    map
    13 Sep 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    http://huff.to/RUwvfG

     

    Well if this is correct i can imagine all the municipalities budgets being drained pretty quickly. Not a good thing for next year !

     

    map
    13 Sep 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    MAP: Greetings. I'm not having a problem either.
    13 Sep 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    I can't believe the metals hadn't baked Bens speech into their numbers. Silver up over a buck and gold up 40 bucks as well.

     

    I will take it, but maybe a knee jerk reaction..

     

    http://bit.ly/U9yxGv

     

    map
    13 Sep 2012, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5396) | Send Message
     
    I am not surprised that the mkt is rallying....after all it's got a grand slam this past week:
    1. Draghi's bond buying lowered Spain & Italy borrowing down to 2.75%
    2. Germany approved it (with conditions)
    3. The fed just injected $560B / yr for prob. 2 years
    4. Banks are flush with liquidity as shown below & the real estate mkt. is good now.

     

    http://bit.ly/PmSWWO
    13 Sep 2012, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6166) | Send Message
     
    Keep an eye on food and energy prices though. They might provide a signal of when to bail on the risk-on trade. Also ME is always something to consider as well. Skyrocketing food led to Lybia and Egypt. The recent events regarding US embassies suggests that we have only seen the tip of the iceberg of what might happen there.

     

    So, while BB has encouraged a shift over to the fast lane, be ready to take that off ramp if energy and food look like they are getting out of hand.
    13 Sep 2012, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    Hoops: I could be wrong, but I think food and energy prices going up will be more related or due to the drought, and the ME, than all of this fiscal nonsense.

     

    My local gas station is at $3.99, up a quarter+ since the beginning of August. Milk has gone over $4.00, and I see ears of corn (around here they are fantastic) going for 60 cents an ear.

     

    I see this market glee BB produced turing to sour grapes in the coming weeks. If the algo puters are in charge, those buggers know the charts, and do they ever feel toppy.

     

    ####

     

    "Warning: High Risk in Late Stage Bull Markets"

     

    http://bit.ly/Petapf
    13 Sep 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6166) | Send Message
     
    Indeed environmental factors are a condition, but what happens in a "slosh" of liquidity during a CB easing is the risk-on trade. The risk-on trade has liquidity leaving safe haven assets and entering risk assets. Equities rise and this signals a growing economy (not necessarily a growing economy, but the rise in equities gives that appearance), commodity assets are bid up in anticipation of the perceived growth, and the result is inflation in equities, food, and energy. Compound this with drought or war, and the risk-on can be popped pretty quick.

     

    Its just something to watch. It won't happen overnight, but it will probably creep up slowly as BB does his buying. Of course what could offset this is some new discovery of vast oil fields somewhere or a sudden new way to make crops drough resistant. Barring some extenuating circumstance like that, $6 gas could cut into earnings and reign in the risk-on that is forming.

     

    Also notice gold running up in anticipation of CPI inflation. We probably won't see much change in the CPI, because we won't see much change in unemployment (U6 and NFP will be more useful to watch instead of U3).

     

    This will be tricky to play, because BB has left this pretty open ended. Before he gave us volumes and dates (as did the ECB). This is different. Its a little like GDP targeting, so predicting the peak is going to be tricky. Lots of things will have to be factored in - like droughts.

     

    When the 10 yr hit 1.39, I sold about 25 million and took some hefty profits. I have been sitting in cash waiting for either Draghi or BB to deliver. Now that they have, they have thrown a bit of a curve ball compared to what they have done before, so it will be a little more difficult figuring out when to redeploy this time.
    13 Sep 2012, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... As you might be aware, I'm invested in a small company that is counting on growth or at least a return to normal economic activity. I'm beginning to think it is doomed, along with a large part of small business. Today, I'm truly depressed about this investment because of the FED. QE will continue until employment picks up .... WTF (?) How on earth is that going to happen?

     

    MBS are bought from banks, proceeds go to Treasuries, Treasuries go to corp. & sovereign bonds, bonds go to CDS, CDS are repo collateral for FED loans, proceeds go into commodities, equities and ... yeah, more Tier 3 or off-balance sheet MBS. MBS are bought from FED. We're right back where we started.

     

    If there is anything in this closed loop that suggests an economy that needs people or work to make money ... I don't see it. I see us, the government, losing money, taking on risk to back worthless assets, fewer people working because of falling demand, savings eaten through to stay alive, and a select few obtaining more cash, debts & leens on what was once public. This is modern feudalism. Our sainted "job creator" top tier income earners have struck it big in the "welfare queen" category. Can we really continue to justify privatized profit & socialized loss?
    13 Sep 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    Hoops: Great points.

     

    $6.00 gas implies $150 oil. Wouldn't surprise me. But all the new natgas coming out of the ground acts as a headwind.

     

    As discussed in the past QC (or two) I-Rates will continue to stay low for another three years. That's a headwind, too.

     

    I still haven't redeployed my called bonds from earlier this year, and feel that I've missed out. Still, I'm around 90% in the market, and other than my AXPW shares, the rest of the portfolio is doing okay.

     

    Tricky when to redeploy? Yep. I think I'll get a better chance next year. Today, I scoured my Wells monthly report, and I can't target anything I want to sell; even something like Linn Energy, which is closing in on being a double since I bought it a couple of years ago...that yield I don't want to lose.

     

    FPA and I were on the phone months ago. During that conversation I expressed that 2016 will be the year TSHTF. Between now and then, global events, scandals, changes to the tax code, cities and states going bankrupt, the EZ, acts of God, etc., are the potential worrisome events.

     

    But everybody continues to print baby print.

     

    I fully expect the market in 2015 to be higher than today, maybe even significantly higher. The game is rigged that way.

     

    I wish I knew more about currencies like Mercy does, so that I could attack all this devaluation going on.
    13 Sep 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2299) | Send Message
     
    DRich and Maya -- all excellent points.
    Re: my knowledge of currencies -- surely you credit me with more knowledge than I possess. My simple strategy was the following:
    1) Find a broker that lets me trade directly online with foreign exchanges (e.g. Fidelity);
    2) Research which countries operate with fiscal responsibility and have currencies with some liquidity (Norway, Australia, Singapore,and Canada met my criteria);
    3) Research dividend paying companies on those exchanges with a heavy weighting to energy and natural resources;
    4) Invest in those foreign companies and collect dividends which I keep holding in those currencies in my account;
    5) Take a long term view on these holdings because fx valuations will fluctuate with the safe haven strength of the USD periodically.

     

    The majority of my assets are still USD denominated -- but the strategy above allows me to diversify and offset the popular government game of USD debasement through deficits and Fed printing.
    mj
    13 Sep 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5074) | Send Message
     
    Maya - My prognosis is the same. I pointed out the H&S formation that started in March of 2000 with a left shoulder peak of 1552, the head peak of 1576 in October of 2007 and now all we need if for another peak below 1550 to complete the right shoulder and we have one of the largest topping formations of all time. If we break out above the 1576 to new highs my theory is crap, of course. But, so far, everything is intact for a reversal of monumental proportions. What the outcome will eventually be is anybody's guess. If distortions and manipulation elongate the uptrend, which is entirely possible, the top is pushed out further into the future.

     

    But looking out longer term, beyond five years, I think there are some very positive trends that will develop for the U.S. I'd love to see the economy clear away much of the dead weight of excessive debt that creates an anchor to growth. I'd also like to see some regulations rolled back and a lower corporate tax rate (the other two anchors dragging the bottom right now) and then we could see another huge bull market. If we don't clear out the dead weight and only deal with regulations and taxes it will be better than what we have now, but will be slower than it could have been. If we do nothing (re-elect BO) we have stagnation, imho, and the market is likely to top and then trend lower until something substantive is done on the fiscal front. Just my opinion.
    13 Sep 2012, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Mercy. I cut, pasted and emailed your comment to myself.

     

    DRich: Your comment reminds me of something I can't write here, but it includes a geometric shape, followed by a movie Steve Martin starred in.

     

    Mark: My belief is that as long as BB is the FED head honcho, we will not see a major correction, as in 20% or greater. I recall you writing about the H&S formation, and Freya (or her hubby -- I can never tell who's who because they write so similarly) pointed out the same a while back.

     

    I don't talk about cycles very much here, but I keep track of cycles via papers like "Cycle Outlook," a multi-thousand $ annual service that I get for free, because a pal of mine used to run it. Beyond 2018 looks fabulous. Between now and then, we could see another major correction. I can email you a copy, but it's a lot of reading. With the flagging screwed up, please PM me if you wish to take a gander.
    13 Sep 2012, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5396) | Send Message
     
    Our sainted "job creator" top tier income earners have struck it big in the "welfare queen" category. Can we really continue to justify privatized profit & socialized loss?

     

    Man you said it all there...I have been saying this all along....The top tier earners have no intention of hiring, or giving anything back...It is TAKE< TAKE<TAKE
    I don't think it ever changes, they have too strong of a hold on everyone in power.
    13 Sep 2012, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >LT ... It would (maybe it is ... we'll see) if these economic vampires didn't suck every bit of liquidity out of the economy I live in, lock it up, and get us to pay face value on loans they knew were bad. Then to have the gall to convince so many weak minded people it is all their fault for their poor spending habits. Everyone in the world needs to stop spending on everything that doesn't benefit the oligarchs. Meanwhile, they are blowing the largest bubble the world has ever "NOT" seen with their (presently) $348T USD swaps market. The race is on to hold the lean on all public assets before that one breaks.

     

    I pray someone stands up and defaults these loans on interest on loans of interest on "marked to mirage" assets. I thought it would be the Irish, maybe it will be the Greeks or Spanish, but it can't be Americans ... we've lost already.
    13 Sep 2012, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5396) | Send Message
     
    $348T USD swaps market. The race is on to hold the lean on all public assets before that one breaks.

     

    That's what it's all about, the tail is wagging the dog and has won. They are why capitalism has failed, and no one has the back bone to fix things right.
    Until they get rid of those CDS, and restore the middle class (no matter who it hurts or what it costs) there is no hope. I think when it blows (the next time, IMO) the whole world goes. We live in a global environment and it will be a global meltdown. Then it will go back to a non-global trade environment.
    13 Sep 2012, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >LT ... I think you feel things are too dire ... I don't. The middle class will do just fine in a world of equals under legal & economic law. We, the entire rest of the world are being taken advantage of. Why? I'm sure it would make no sense to me if I had a clue. I've posted this before because it sums up my idea of how a total collapse will be like ... tough, short & beneficial to those not on the Davos, Jackson Hole, Palm Springs & others hob-nob locales guest list.

     

    http://bit.ly/QR2XRr
    13 Sep 2012, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    This will require a political sea change. We must stop politics from being a lucrative permanant profession dominated by lawyers. Thus we need term limits http://www.goooh.com as a start. Once legislative term limits are in place there is hope that the other changes needed can be put into place. Go TEA Party.
    14 Sep 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >robert.b.ferguson ... I tend to disagree with the idea of term limits. One, limits would mean that the only enduring organized staffing in the legislative process would be the lobbyist and an even deeper industry captured regulatory structure. Second, the people that we elect that champion "term limits" don't believe in them . Leadership, in my book, is done by example. I hold as an example my current (retiring) Senator Kay Bailey “Now Serving The Third Of My Two Promised Terms In The Senate” Hutchison

     

    http://bit.ly/Ub9zX9

     

    Much as I don't like my governor, I actually tend to agree with this little rant (except for that balance budget thing)

     

    http://bit.ly/SLjurr

     

    I think the solution is in taking the personal profit out of regulation (the revolving door) and election reform (LOL, like that will happen)
    14 Sep 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    DRich,

     

    I have always had exactly the same concern about term limits. It leaves in office all the bureaucrats that are not accountable to voters, and limits the ones we can hold accountable.

     

    And what is the motivation to keep ANY campaign promises if you cannot buy votes for re-election? This would only increase the "regulatory capture" problem, as public office would become simply a means to get captured by industry, both coming and going.

     

    Term limits would only work if they were also applied to all non-elected government officials.

     

    Politician and
    Diapers should be changed often
    For the same reason.
    14 Sep 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin: I've often wondered if a modification of limits might be useful. Limit terms in *one* stretch and then you *must* return to your home district and live among your neighbors and electorate for x years. Afterwards, you can be elected again.

     

    ISTM that it limits concentration of power, puts you back in the tank with the fish you left behind so they can "feed on you" if deserved but let's your expertise and knowledge be returned if you electorate believes it's warranted.

     

    This also affects the incoming folks that replace you while you're out and gives them incentive to control the bureaucrats left in place.

     

    I'm not sure how feasible it is, but I think that some of the "corruption of the candidates integrity" comes from both time away from core values, time in the hyper-political environment of D.C. and "changing the strata" that occurs over time as you circulate more and more among the "elites".

     

    ISTM that a way of breaking that chain without eliminating the possibility of getting again elected might be a solution.

     

    I'm not convinced though - people are just too hard to predict.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Sep 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6166) | Send Message
     
    Some have argued that Congressional paid should be based on the average non-gov assisted income of the constituency. As such, the more welfare a politician brings home the less they get paid. The more wages go up due to productiviyt, the more they get paid.
    14 Sep 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Our founders feared factionalism almost as much as they feared central banks and with good reason. Long standing political alliances and factions trading legislative favors to benefit themselves is a serious threat. Special interests would find it much more expensive to buy legislation and legislators if they had to pay for them on a continuing bases. Term limits were placed on the executive in order to prevent an individual from becoming President for life after the demise of FDR. The threat was recognized and dealt with. What we have now invites coruption as almost everyone who goes to Washington finishes their political career much more wealthy than they started. So the issue of "capture." by corporate and other interests is already rampant. Something other than what we are doing now is in order. Of course as in Rick, Perry's case those already in power will be loth to agree with this. Perhaps to buy their support they would have to be grandfathered in and continue being as corupt as they wish until they are dumped by the electorate. If your Charles, Rangle that will never happen which exemplifies why such action is needed.The "Expert Civil Servants." are another matter entirely. I don't claim to be smat enough to have all the answers, but I'm not dumb enough to think we can't do better than this.
    14 Sep 2012, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    Clever and politically astute people will always figure out how to game the system to their advantage. Whatever the rules are, they will learn how to use them and bend them to their advantage.

     

    Set up a revolving term limits scenario, and it will only give them an excuse to bounce back and forth between industry and govt, increasing regulatory capture as they figure out how to parlay their influence to their own long-term advantage. (Hank Paulson & friends?)

     

    Set up a formula for regulating their income based on their constituents' wealth or any other "measure" of performance, and they will find or create loopholes that they can take advantage of.

     

    The problem is inherent in human nature. The smart and strong will find ways to prey on the stupid and weak, and dress it in noble excuses.

     

    "Democracy is the worst form of government.... except for all the others." --Churchill

     

    "The State is the great fiction through which everyone endeavours to live at the expense of everyone else." --Frederic Bastiat, 1848
    14 Sep 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6166) | Send Message
     
    The reason politicians can be bought is that they have something to sell. Perhaps the best course of action is to take control of the economy out of their hands, and you "de-Colbertize" (Jean Baptiste Colbert) them.

     

    Give them control to regulate the economy and you set in motion the principal of diffuse costs and concentrated benefits. Regulatory is absolutely guaranteed, hence the complaining that things "were deregulated" or "regulators didn't do their jobs". Concentrating the ability to control trillions provides the incentives for the minority of those that are affected by larger percentages of those trillions to be more involved than the majority that will only be affected by a very small pecentage of those trillions. For example, buying a politician for a couple million to write regulations to crush your competition that will make you billions is much more of an incentive than a few dollars that the average person will lose by not doing anything. The real trick is for the big business to disguise their cartelization of the system by declaring that its to stop unfair competition, or some other populist tactic. Then the incentive to rise up by the general populace to stop the cartelization is completely quelled because people now have the comfort of moral superiority and even less incentive to discover the truth.

     

    We've all heard the tales that gov regulation of big, evil business in the Progressive Era as a result of noble minded politicians like Aldrich of the Aldrich Bill fame that laid the foundation for the Fed Res to stop the free market "excess" of men like Morgan and Rockefeller. Well isn't it interesting that a large number of Presidents came out of Ohio at the end of the 1800s and at the start of the 1900s. Guess who was in Ohio? That's right. Standard Oil and Rockefeller. Also, isn't interesting that Aldrich's daughter married John Rockefeller, and isn't it interesting that the Fed Res wound up being controlled out of New York. And, who was in New York. That's right. JP Morgan.

     

    It is a major myth that populist revolt rose up against evil "unregulated" robber barons to reign them in. What happened is that everytime Morgan or Rockefeller or anyone in this era for that matter (see National Biscut Co 1901 shareholder communications) that attempted a monopoly or cartel, wherein they would attempt to restrict supply and increase price, found themselves with more efficient competitors entering the market that would increase supply and lower prices (now that's regulation at no cost to the taxpayer). Fed up with this people like Morgan and Rockefeller turned to the gov to cartelize the system for them, because gov had one thing these guys did not. Gov had guns, and the legitimate right to use them.

     

    Thus through these decades, late 1800s thru early 1900s, we saw the rise of the ICC, Fed Res, Sherman Trust Act, etc. Its was the so-called capitalists cartelizing the system because a free market would not allow them to do it, and they bought politicians like Aldrich and the Roosevelts to do it for them.
    14 Sep 2012, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5396) | Send Message
     
    I will add one other thing, we have only got about 6-7 weeks until election....I think that is when things change ... it is as much timing as it is the outcome. We all know there is a correction looming, just when?
    I got burnt last summer, so I was not a scared and bearish as most on QC...it showed in my posts. We in general have all been running too scared, and either missed the rally or left way too much gravy on the table with our negatism.
    Example, I been playing Citigroup...bailed at 31 and change, not it's over $34 today. I knew when it broke above $32 it had momentum. That's too much, and it was just pure fear that done it.

     

    I still agree with MJ and we have discussed it all summer, that 2013 willl be a tough year unless there is a big compromise in washington that does serious fixing. Not patchwork.
    13 Sep 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2299) | Send Message
     
    LT,
    As you know I am overweight energy, and hold several positions directly in Norwegian Kroner, CAD, AUD, and SGD -- and they have all jumped big after the FOMC printing announcement . So I am better off -- but I simply do not understand how this improves US consumer and corporate confidence to spend more and hire more.

     

    I am not sure I agree that the elections are "when things change." We just got QEi (i.e. QE until infinity) and if polls are to be believed Mr. Obama will likely be re-elected and therefore Mr. Bernanke can avoid the Romney ax. So a probable outcome of the elections may be a lot more of what we have already seen from monetary as well as fiscal policy -- until it all catches up with us -- and it will. In the meantime we have no choice but to keep riding the train up the hill as long as it has fuel and hope that a bridge is built by the time we hit the fiscal cliff.
    mj
    13 Sep 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6166) | Send Message
     
    What does it mean to grow an economy? I suggest is means technological advancements that allow people to work less and have more. In other words, how we learn to use the environment to improve our standard of living. Working less does not mean unemployment. It means everybody that wants to can work for as long as they like and still have a standard of living that appeals to them.

     

    So to have this you need technology. Technology is about better utilization of resources. That requires signals from nature. To see these signals, people must be price sensitive. Price sensitive means learning from your mistakes. Coercion/force means people don't have to learn from their mistakes. This is why people use force to steal. They want a short cut to consumption to avoid production. The more coercion that goes on in a society the less price sensitivity there is, thus technology is slowed and thus the economy slows.

     

    Why is this relevant? Because this is what the fiscal cliff is all about. It is about the reintroduction of coercion into the markets. The way to get the economy to grow is to wring coercion out of it. A step in this direction would mean taking all marginal income tax rates down to 5% for everyone. Cutting gov regulation of voluntary transactions by 60% and moving regulation of involuntary transactions away from regulatory agencies and back to the courts. This would mean reigning in regulatory agency power, and transferring it back to the legislature.

     

    Then freeze the Feds balance sheet were it is, be ready to endure some inflation (it will subside), leave Fed employees in place but give them little to do and let their rolls shrink by attrition, let people develop natural resources and regulate only based on torts via the courts, drastically reduce the military's mission and bring much of them home from overseas, and then sit back and watch GDP climb to 8% and U6 fall to 7% over the next few years. S&P will break 1800 and gold will fall to 300/oz.

     

    This is the sort of measure to compare upcoming action against. If the talks turn to cutting spending and raising taxes and increasing gov regulatory action or war or all of the above, then get ready for a recession and be ready to really watch income gaps widen.
    13 Sep 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5074) | Send Message
     
    MJ - Interesting article about Australia predicting a fall in the AUD. Thought you might want to read and share an opinion. I have been a believer in the AUD for several years, but the new resources tax and this article have bred some doubts in my mind.

     

    http://onforb.es/RNqToI
    13 Sep 2012, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2299) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the link K202. Indeed any time the AUD diverges much from parity to the USD I am looking for buying or selling opportunities. As you can see from this fx chart, last May when it took only $0.96USD to purchase $1AUD -- I was adding to my AUD denominated shares. And today when it takes $1.058USD to purchase $1AUD I am less inclined to add to positions and more inclined to trim gains: http://bit.ly/uMwi4n

     

    It goes without saying that all of the usual variables one weighs in buying on the US exchanges are also weighed in these buying and selling decisions on foreign exchanges -- but the fx valuation is one more variable to juggle in that decision making and timing. Right now I, too, expect the AUD to pull back a bit barring a "QE to infinity" move by China (who exerts tremendous influence on Australian exports.)

     

    The new resource tax is a whole other discussion, but irrespective of its pluses and minuses -- I continue to be impressed with a country that can even talk about a having a budget surplus within a couple of years and who did not bail out any banks during the 2008 crisis.

     

    BTW in case you are interested, here is one of my past comments which took issue with an SA author's notion that Australia was "heading into a depression." http://bit.ly/Nriu8n
    13 Sep 2012, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    Blink, and you missed it! This is the $4:00 a.m. article...
    4:22 AM The House yesterday passed a $500B bill that finances federal operations until March at current spending levels in what will probably be the last major piece of legislation until after the election. The Senate is expected to approve the bill next week. Separately, the government reported an 11-month budget deficit of $1.16T, down from $1.23T last year. [Top Stories, U.S. Economy] 3
    14 Sep 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5074) | Send Message
     
    MJ,

     

    Excellent response in your comment. I don't expect a depression or even a recession in Australia. I am just a little concerned that the growth rate will slow and the new tax will hurt earnings/jobs growth as well. I'm still mixed on my thinking about AU bonds at this stage. Thanks again for the links and response.
    14 Sep 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5074) | Send Message
     
    I saw that news article. My biggest concern is that BO could stand in the way. Either administration, regardless of who gets elected, would benefit with some breathing room to try to negotiate a reasonable budget deal. But I suspect that BO may want the face off sooner and be willing to let the credit rating drop again to get his way. After all, if re-elected, he'll just blame it one those other guys for not being willing to make "reasonable" concessions.
    14 Sep 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    I'm on record months ago that I don't think Fiscal Cliff will occur. It will be extended (the quants, chatterheads and pundits will create fear and drive the markets down, possibly offering a good entry point late this year...waiting...).

     

    I also believe high unemployement is here to stay. Unemployment hasn't affected any investment decision I have made for at least three years. Probably won't for the next three years.

     

    This makes no sense house of cards has many more levels to grow.

     

    Enjoying the discussion.
    13 Sep 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    This is the problem with QEi.

     

    Eventually the wheels will come off, but until the wheels come off bad investing habits and irreverence toward risk is rewarded.

     

    Central bank policy encourages the behavior that created economic problem in 2000, 2008 and today. Apparently, they have learned nothing about their policy outcomes.

     

    Sometimes I wonder if my worst investment decision of the last 15 years is thinking.
    13 Sep 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    LOL... it does seem that way for me as well Jon. I study and study and think its great, pull the trigger, and watch it tank.
    13 Sep 2012, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Bull markets are born of abject despair and die in a peroxisms of ecstasy. When considering the question of inflationary pressures there are more things affecting it than just the normal influences observed in the past. China struck upon a solution last year and have been trying to implement it. http://bit.ly/OtkxdA BB couldn't let that continue and adopted coutermeasures requiring a hidden tax of over thirty percent. http://onforb.es/zyyVvT All of this has created commodity inflation af all things priced in USD that we have exported around the world. It will be and has been coming full circle
    even though it's currently being denied by TPTB. That being said denying it exists doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Any one driving a vehicle, buying croceries or paying for almost anything will know that it's here and it's real. These equity markets are defying gravity on artificial stimulation and TPTB will go to any lengths to continue the illusion but it's only an illusion and reality will bite sooner or later. The pent up market forces will become uncontrolable and escape shredding the illusion and cratering the accounts of those not nimble enough, smart enough or without the situational awareness to be ready. Many economies around the world will be severely damaged as well. Off to watch the Bears beat the Packers. now. have a pleasant evening all.
    13 Sep 2012, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5396) | Send Message
     
    I too agree that high unemployment is here to stay....a large part is baby boomers retiring ....that gap won't be filled and corps have no intention of hiring that many back.
    13 Sep 2012, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    So much for the Bears beating the Packers. They decided to beat themselves instead.
    14 Sep 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    That's what men often do.
    14 Sep 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately it appears that we as a nation have chosen the same course of action.
    14 Sep 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    JS: No way! I just saw the Our Gang kid throwing money out the window you posted a few days ago on CNBC. Long time ago, I had thought they were following this blog. May still be. That's a mighty strange coincidence.
    13 Sep 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5396) | Send Message
     
    IBM : Watson in your pocket IBM could be a very good investment going forward.

     

    http://buswk.co/SjFyTv
    14 Sep 2012, 04:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2299) | Send Message
     
    Marc Faber goes on a good rant about how eventually "US Fed Monetary policies will destroy the world." He was certainly right in foreseeing one of the greatest transfers of wealth from monetary policy. Unfortunately his wisdom may be largely ignored as it applies to the decades ahead of us -- and too many of us are focused on the immediate future at hand:
    http://bloom.bg/RPT3PV
    14 Sep 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    His longer interviews and speeches are often better, but this one was great, like watching a prize fighter in his prime getting a 1st round knockout.

     

    Well worth a few minutes. Thanks MJ!
    14 Sep 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Folks

     

    All over the middle east our Embassys are being attacked...This is pure terrorism...As far as QEi goes as soon as our citizens wake up and figure out this ponzt scheme the party is over.

     

    As i stated before more money, in the billions. are being pulled out of the market weekly. To me we are just playing musical chairs. This time it will be worse than 2009...

     

    The market became legalized gambling with most paying the vig. The problem is no one knows when the game ends...and it will !!

     

    Economic data is pitiful, and Treasury rates are starting to rise, still sticking with my metals. Hate to wake up one morning with a 500 point drop in the market before i could make a move. IMHO that scenerio isn;t that far away. Just gonna take a spark to start the fire....

     

    map
    14 Sep 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    We sure ought to get busy building that Keystone XL pipeline. Maybe drilling for some more oil would be a good idea, too. If it weren't that movie, it would be something else escaping from Pandora's Box.
    14 Sep 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Almost anything will do.
    14 Sep 2012, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Another first for King Voldemort. Our credit rating was just dropped to AA-. http://bit.ly/O4bxM5 Great moments in history.
    14 Sep 2012, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Its okay, Moody's still rates us AAA

     

    Egan-Jones is just honest and right... but those aren't really priorities, are they?
    14 Sep 2012, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Obama is grasping at straws here, too bad this latest move will hurt more than help us. I don't blame this administration for this problem. It was in place before he was elected. But his moves just haven't worked.

     

    Time to try someone new!! But i have a feeling he will get re elected because of the entitlements.

     

    Just keep on adding those metals, and waiting for TSTHTF..

     

    NOW 2 MARINES IN AFGANISTAN KILLED AS A BASE WAS ATTACKED..I am afraid we will need to do something militarily soon...Can't keep taking this sitting on our hands.

     

    MAP
    14 Sep 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    Marines are moving into Sudan.
    I read today that the ambassador to Libya was raped before he was murdered.http://bit.ly/UUn6ES
    14 Sep 2012, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    OG

     

    That's just sickening. I believe you Husband was a Marine. What does he think we should do?

     

    map
    14 Sep 2012, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Just heard marines are moving into 3 different sites...Plus i found this Peter Schiff piece interesting.

     

    http://bit.ly/Nt0ydv

     

    Anyone want to cut holes into it? I am all ears to learn.

     

    map
    14 Sep 2012, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    Schiff appears occasionally on CNBC, and he is entertaining, but I get the impression that most people don't take him too seriously. A gloom and doomer.
    14 Sep 2012, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    I guess we are no longer in the phase where bad news is good news any longer. If there is bad news then it is just bad news since QE is no longer a decision point at some point in the future for Bernanke.
    That was sort of evident today with bad news out of Libya/Egypt. The market didn't go up much, but the VIX went up in the afternoon.
    14 Sep 2012, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    MAP: Greetings. Nice to see that Peter agrees with me. I've been postulating that the FED will not be able to contain the demons it's playing with.
    14 Sep 2012, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Robert

     

    Hi, been saying the same thing for 2 years now. Wishing there was a good answer but i haven't read one yet !!

     

    map
    14 Sep 2012, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Can anyone please post a link to this movie i am hearing about that caused all of this mid east crap..

     

    Thanks
    Map
    14 Sep 2012, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    I did http://bit.ly/RSCcGn
    14 Sep 2012, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Jon

     

    Thanks, but apparently they removed it as the only video is in arabic i believe

     

    map
    14 Sep 2012, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Not interested. The movie is irrelevant. No other entity acts as these animals do. Got guns?
    14 Sep 2012, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >MAP ... If you really feel the need. Here. It is not the full movie (that is not available), it is a trailer, but was more than enough to piss off the Muslims. WARNING: This is pure trash

     

    http://bit.ly/PrI8GK
    14 Sep 2012, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    DRICH....Wish i didn't ask....Thanks.

     

    Just wanted to see why everyone was blaming a movie for all this trouble overseas...Just an excuse.

     

    map
    14 Sep 2012, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Robert.

     

    Maybe time to test some new weapons we have??

     

    map
    14 Sep 2012, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >MAP ... Yes, just an excuse. The unfortunate thing is that the response is designed to invoke just the violent, senseless, broad base response I see so many calling for. More war ... great ... just what we need to spend money on ... wait ... maybe the Chinese will let us put this one on the creditcard, too. This the kind of problem we hire the spooks & green faces for. No one needs to know ... maybe one precision Tomahawk for advertising our intent.
    14 Sep 2012, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6166) | Send Message
     
    How do you prove someone's motivation. Just saying you are killing people because you are mad about a movie isn't proof of that. In fact, if you were hiding a coordinated attack, it would be logical that the coordinators wouldn't want to be revealed. Especially after Osama.
    14 Sep 2012, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (958) | Send Message
     
    Since there are about 1.7 billion Muslims in the world, if only 1/2% take issue with anti-Muslim movies, accidental burning of Korans or political cartoons depicting Mohammed, that's 8.5 million people. Hard to reason with people who think that freedom of speech doesn't apply to any (possible negative) depiction of Mohammed or Islam.
    15 Sep 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6166) | Send Message
     
    Where's the polling evidence that the rioters saw he movie and are rioting because they are upset?
    15 Sep 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5396) | Send Message
     
    for goodness sake jhooper.. do you think someone here just sat that up ? and again now in every other country over there? gimme a break
    15 Sep 2012, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6166) | Send Message
     
    Someone made a claim. So i would like to see the evidence. It is also logical that an administration with failed foreign policy would rather blame the death of an ambassador on a movie rather than there policies. Isnt it also interesting that there are noo apologies to catholic for how the administraton treats them.
    15 Sep 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Does it matter? If not this then something else. They are enraged by almost anything. This probably has more to do with the 9/11 anniversary and the killing of UBL followed by high fives and leaks from the White House. Islam isn't even a religion it's a governance philosophy disguised as a religion through Sharia law. Muslims around the world demand tolerance from all others but are incapable of reciprocating because of their "Religious." beliefs that cannot accept any point of view save their own. Any who refuse to accept what they are demanding is to be killed and anyone becoming disillusioned with it will also be killed. That is written in their holy scriptures. We can continue to say otherwise only at our extreme peril. Christians and all others should make it a point to exterminate this cancerous philosophy. It would have been much wiser to have finished it off during the crusades.
    15 Sep 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6166) | Send Message
     
    I was just thinking that if it was just an uncoordinated mob, then the implications for another war heating up are much less. If it is a coordinated effort by the new regimes that we helped install, then the possibility of war would be heightened. This is would also be the incentive for the current administration to divert attention away for policy failure.

     

    If war did come, and oil shot way up, then that combined with QEi could have us looking at $7/gal or $8/gal, which would then poke a hole in the equities bubble that BB is building with QEi.

     

    Its also a reminder that just because the media tells us something, doesn't mean its true.
    15 Sep 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    Even on NPR yesterday their reporter in Cairo could not find one protestor who had actually seen the film.

     

    Actually, I believe their will be evidence that the current administration laid the first seeds of the social network in the middle-east which led to the "Arab spring" they thought they were delivering democracy to a people that could handle it, but there is a reason why the only countries that somewhat function in the ME are run by dictators or monarchs. Now that the social network that they are all privy too and adapt at is being used against us.

     

    How is it that thousands of people in three dozen cities across the ME and N Africa still feel they have the right to protest over a stupid film and act like animals after four of our countrymen were brutally murdered on American/embassy soil? If they get to assume all Americans made and think like that film then maybe we should get to assume that they are all like those animals that drug our ambassador through the streets.
    15 Sep 2012, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6166) | Send Message
     
    Well now, maybe some did "sat" this up.

     

    http://usat.ly/RHKWj9

     

    And the video story was just an attempt at a cover up after all. We shall see.
    21 Sep 2012, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    http://huff.to/O4qmOR

     

    For all those who think the President is essentially a wimp!!

     

    map
    14 Sep 2012, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    This has all the markings of a coordinated event. The problem becomes the cost of a war and against who? Where do you bomb? IMHO Lets just hope it eventually stops.

     

    But make no mistake,they would LOVE to ruin us financially as well. That is why all of us should prep some. If gas does indeed go that high and trucks stop rolling for delivery the shelves will empty pretty quickly.

     

    So no harm in adding insurance in your home for these types of emergencies. I know some who post here have done so, even if they don't want to post it. FOOD. WATER. ETC.

     

    I am becoming more of a prepper myself. Like i said it's insurance that i hope i never have to use but will be happy (poor choice of word ) if i need it..Guns included !!!

     

    map
    15 Sep 2012, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Was thinking about equity markets going up in the environment of money printing and inflation. Found this article which has a lot of good charts that make the case that, to parody hyperbole from the tech bubble, we could have a convergence with Dow 30,000 and Gold 30,000.

     

    Exaggerating of course, but check out the charts of what inflation did to equity markets in Weimar, Zimbabwe and Israel http://bit.ly/RUHVLR
    15 Sep 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    of course, some folks who live in a permanent state of hyperbole may not get what I mean
    15 Sep 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6166) | Send Message
     
    BB wants equities bid up. Maybe its BB that's lost in the hyperbole?

     

    http://n.pr/QP6qxw

     

    I love the "for whatever reason" quote by BB. Its as if he believes we can fool ourselves into being wealthier than we are. Maybe its not hyperbole, but fundamentalist dogma that's really the issue.
    15 Sep 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    What stood out to me. The Fed "wants to make people feel wealthier — and more willing to spend."

     

    Notice the Fed doesn't want to make people wealthier, or help them be wealthier. It just wants us to feel like we are (even if we are not).

     

    It *feels* like something out of a dystopian sci-fi novel to me.
    15 Sep 2012, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6166) | Send Message
     
    Its also how you create bubbles. Last 2 QEs BB popped them himself
    He told us dates and volumes. This time he is basing it on employment conditions. Now $40 billion in six months will only be $240 billion, and the last QE was $600 billion, so the rally make take longer than last time, but all bubbles based on "scifi" will pop

     

    What we have to watch is the size of the Fed balance sheet, the threat of war, and inflation for food and energy. I also watch 10 yr treasury. Resistance has been at 2.40. These factors should help signal the slosh back to safety and the risk off trade.
    15 Sep 2012, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    jhooper: Maybe in the future we'll have inflation, but right now, or last month, core inflation was.1%. Consumer prices rose by .6%, the highest in CPI in a couple of years. These were well in line with expectations. Gas prices rose 5.6%.

     

    http://bit.ly/PuprlR

     

    Shadow Stats shows a different story, because they use the way inflation was calculated back in 1990:

     

    http://bit.ly/lmDmS2

     

    Doesn't mean inflation won't go bananas sometime down the road, but again, all in all, inflation right now is not a subject I'm real concerned about. Maybe someday....
    15 Sep 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6166) | Send Message
     
    The inflation as measured by the CPI is irrelevant for this discussion. CPI is only a worry when unemployment hasn't been shocked. We lost 9 million jobs and have gotten back about 4 million or so. As such, CPI inflation is not what you want to worry about. If you look at the BLS stats going back to the 1970s, typically we would lose about 2 million jobs. The scenario we have now is far different, because the gov induced housing bubble was far larger.

     

    What you also need to do is forget the conventional wisdom about inflation, and think about inflation in terms of CB notes bidding up certain asset classes. Its like cramming putty into a vase. If the CPI hole is blocked, the putty will leak out the equity hole and commodity hole.

     

    What will happen is commodity prices will cut into peoples spending on things that get measured in the CPI and these things affect earnings for equities. At some point PEs will start to make people nervous, profit taking will ensue, more sellers than buyers means falling equity prices, and presto the bubble gets popped. The risk off trade ensues, and people fly back to safety (ie US treas).

     

    If you want to learn to protect yourself, learn to think about the economy in terms other than just the conventional wisdom terms. Its good to undertand the conventional terms, PPI, CPI, headline vs core, GDP, etc, but remember where a lot of these terms came from. Alot of it came from a bunch of unenlightened Keynsians. They designed these terms from their archaic theories (they are really just a rehash of Absolutism), and they are designed to make wealth transfer and wealth effect to look like the real thing. This is why BB talks in terms of "wealth effect" and magically elevated 401ks.

     

    The trick here is the opened ended nature of the Feds action and the volume per month (relatively small now at $40 billion). Determing what will cause the flight back to safety could take a while based on this current scenario. That's why it will be so critical not to get lost in the conventional terms, and to think about the economy in practical terms.

     

    The inflation to watch is not CPI inflation, but in food and energy. How much of this type of inflation will it take to create the flight back to safety? Remember when Obama took office gasoline was under $2/gal. The putty isn't leaking out the CPI hole. Its leaking out in things not measured by the CPI.

     

    Again, the rally could go on for a while because of this "open ended" approach BB is taking, but like all bubbles it will pop. Its just a question of what will do it. It could still be BB himself, but since he hasn't set a date, we have to look at other things that might do it before he does.
    15 Sep 2012, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    Hoops: Appreciate the input. The reason why I like QC as much as I do is it provides info and ideas to do an end run on on asset depreciation. If I hadn't been proactive investing-wise during the recession, I likely wouldn't be sitting in a newly bought home, mortgage-free.

     

    As for food inflation? The older I get, the less I eat! A large pizza back in my 30s was one meal; now it's four. How's that for busting inflation? ;-) I could even scale back to Dijiorno's. LOL.

     

    But I do get your points.

     

    Bubbles will keep happening, as they have for centuries. The key is to make money from bubbles, and not get burned by them.

     

    I hope gas prices do go up to $5 or $6. My way to play that is to invest in a start-up company that has a real solid chance of going up 1000% within three years, and chances of this occurring are only going to be enhanced as fuel prices rise.

     

    Thing I have learned most over the past four or five years is to pay attention, be nimble, research a ton, and to listen to others smarter than I.
    15 Sep 2012, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    I agree maya. I think I am one of the few guys that is ok with what BB is doing. Maybe one day I will be eating $10 loaves of bread but right now I want to get my house back above water and To acheive that I need people to have a little money in their 401k that makes them feel a little better about the amount of capital they have to spend and buy homes with.

     

    Higher stock price make business owners feel better about hiring, creating lower unemployment and higher wages as well. The worst thing we could have had was deflation which could have begun happening as emerging nations creat larger middle classes and higher valued currencies.

     

    Not sure if I know what I am talking about but it is how I am reading it right now.
    15 Sep 2012, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6166) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. When ltro reached its peak, I bought about 25 million in various bullet gses. When the 10 yr hit 1.39, I sold and took big profits. Part of the reason I sold was in anticipation of putting that cash back to work because it appeared the CB was going to ease again. Now that the have, they've don't it with conditions. This will make it harder to time the peak, and they've pushed it out longer than they have in the past. So that means being in cash longer than I typically do.
    15 Sep 2012, 07:29 PM Reply Like