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  • QuickChat #248, November 7, Postelection 335 comments
    Nov 7, 2012 1:46 PM

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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Just saw Forbes state that Obama re-election guarantees a recession...
    7 Nov 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >tripleblack ... I don't think it would have mattered. The USA needs to go through a recession to get back to anything like normal. Last July "our" friends at Goldman (read about it on ZH) predicted that going over the fiscal cliff would mean 1st Half of 2013 would be a recession, recovering into the end of 2013 and sustained GDP growth in the 3% (?) range for the remainder of the forecast period (5 years IIRC). Didn't mention or matter who lived in the WH. Goldman saw the "cliff" as a good or better thing than just prolonging the agony. The one caveat was it would be harmful to the TBTF banks because it would require money to be spent in the bottom of the economy and the top would somehow fend for themselves. Bad markets.
    7 Nov 2012, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    Wow TB,
    That is some picture. Lots of detail and symbolism, kind of depressing. A true work of art (or in this case Stan) ;-)
    7 Nov 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2103) | Send Message
     
    Will the Black Swan become a Phoenix?
    7 Nov 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    7.5 quake just occurred off of the Guatemalan coast; felt all the way to Mexico City:

     

    http://nbcnews.to/Z0hknc
    7 Nov 2012, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Bloomberg says BO is going to propose a carbon tax to cut deficit.

     

    http://bloom.bg/T4dcPB
    7 Nov 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Who didn't see that coming? When the House refuses to pass such a measure he will enact it through executive fiat and the regulatory function of the EPA. Just add some more IRS agents to enforce it.
    7 Nov 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5349) | Send Message
     
    See. Its clear BHO has no clue as to how our monetary system works. Any additional taxation right now is going to offset any efforts the Fed is engaged in to keep asset prices propped up. Having the IRS cancel a bunch of Fed Res notes via a tax, would be tantamount to the Fed selling assets instead of buying them. The result will be fewer buyers of financial assets, and supply and demand for financial assets will find a new, LOWER equilibrium.

     

    We are going to have to watch changes like this to the subsidy mix very closely, because the chances such uneducated policies like this for causing a recession are going to grow and grow. FDR did the same thing in the 30s, and it looks like BHO is going to follow that example.

     

    Hoover was Bush, and BHO is FDR. Its all playing out very similar to the 30s.

     

    The question is, "Will the Fed be able to offset?"
    7 Nov 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Then why is Boehner now saying taxes is ok? Go read the afternoon news. They know the public just sent a message. Compromise or die.
    7 Nov 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    What I see is a foreign analyst's speculation and nothing more at this point. Whether any carbon tax proposal would make it out of the House is something only time will tell, but I have more than passing doubt about prospects of enactment.
    7 Nov 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5349) | Send Message
     
    "Then why is Boehner now saying taxes is ok?"

     

    Because he doesn't understand either. If the public did send that message, then it is a huge mistake, and if the message is acted on, fiscal policy is going to do the exact opposite of what is necessary to keep the wealth transfer going to financial markets. If you plan on riding out the dip, then it may not be a problem for you. However, there may very well be an opportunity to take profits, and redeploy at the bottom with your gains if it appears the Fed can offset the damage done by fiscal policy. It just depends if they actually do this. This is how you can have some of that wealth transferred your way.

     

    Once again, taxes do not fund our gov. We have a monopolized money medium. The gov does not need to collect taxes to spend. It can just spend. The additional Fed Res notes BB has given to the financial markets is what is helping (to a large extent - other factors involved too) to keep the asset prices up. If BHO and Boehner mess with that subsidy mix, they will essentially cancel (to some extent) what BB is trying to do.

     

    It will damage BBs efforts at creating a wealth effect, which will lead to people pulling in their spending horns even more. That means less buyers for equities (bad for prices) and less consumers for the things that the companies that issue those equities (also bad for prices because there is less earnings). It becomes a self reinforcing cycle. If they compromise or die, your portfolio could take a 20% to 30% hit, depending on how big the compromise is.

     

    The idea is to understand the principals involved here, and how fiscal and monetary policy can affect asset prices
    7 Nov 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    people are not cutting spending.....consumer credit up $11 billion in september...much higher than expected.

     

    I concede..the 1% may not spend at Tiffany's.
    7 Nov 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    uuh, let's read that again. From http://wapo.st/RFYzUg
    <
    While Boehner suggested that Republicans would continue to oppose Obama’s plan to take “a larger share of what the American people earn through higher tax rates,” he said the party is open to “increased revenue . . . as the by-product of a growing economy, energized by a simpler, cleaner, fairer tax code, with fewer loopholes, and lower rates for all.”
    <
    7 Nov 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5349) | Send Message
     
    "people are not cutting spending"

     

    I didn't say they were. I was walking through the scenario of tax increases, if they do indeed occur. I was saying that if you get enough tax increases, because politicians don't understand our monetary policy, then the support for asset prices could plumment (depending on the size of the tax increase-regardless of where it happens). When that happens people panic, and they are less inclined to spend on anything, much less Tiffany's, that is of course you happen to be a politician that has no fear of their income ever drying up.

     

    Tax increases basically cancel Fed notes. BB is trying to get Fed notes into existence. He doesn't need them cancelled.
    7 Nov 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Boehner is a negotiator.... he just fired the opening salvo to open the door to compromise. I guarantee both sides would take the deal that was on the table a year ago and smile. (they should have then IMO)
    The only question now is who gets credit for the deal?

     

    If they play it right, both sides win...the country wins.
    7 Nov 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5349) | Send Message
     
    If there are tax increases and spending decreases, initially you will have recessionary pressures. The deal they are negotiating is based on ignorance of how our monetary system works now.

     

    So whether they take the deal and smile, of take lots of credit, both claim victory, and announce the whole country a winner, their opinions are irrelevant. Their opinions will be detached from the reality of what they are doing. So we have to be careful. If it goes down that way, and we determine that the Fed will not compensate or compensate in time (they don't really understand what is happening either), then we will see recessionary pressure, and the size of the pressure will depend on the size of the compromise.

     

    What could happen is a serious pull back in equity prices causing people to get nervous. They stop spending, on top of this you have a deal to raise taxes on them and stop gov spending at the same time. Both the personal consumption component and the gov spending component of GDP will go down at the same time. That has the possibility of creating the circumstances for two quarters of negative GDP. Presto. You have a recession. Earnings will take a hit, and then it will take some time for the Fed to react.

     

    That then becomes the question. Will their reaction be enough to offset the mistaken fiscal policy? If not, the wealth you had transferred your way when the S&P was over 1450, will be taken away.
    7 Nov 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    " If there are tax increases and spending decreases, initially you will have recessionary pressures. The deal they are negotiating is based on ignorance of how our monetary system works now."

     

    Rather too general a statement with unstated assumptions regarding time. Both tax increases and spending decreases can be implemented in the short term or long term or a combination of both with different effects in each instance.

     

    For instance, I understood at the time that the "grand bargain" deficit reduction negotiations fell apart when the "progressive" Democrats started birthing kittens over prospect of a change in social security benefit inflation indexation formula. Reducing the rate of growth in government spending over a five or ten year period qualifies in federal budget rules as spending cuts. Eliminating or reducing tax deductible items in future qualifies as revenue enhancement (tax increase). Neither of those measures will "downsize" government in any respect, but both would reduce federal deficits without negative effect on current economic activity or wealth.

     

    Certainty about stability of tax regimes has much more influence on economic growth than temporary measures.
    7 Nov 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Could they unemployed be putting everyday living expenses on the credit cards. Nowhere does it mean this is a good number.
    7 Nov 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    "Could they unemployed be putting everyday living expenses on the credit cards."

     

    Visited an enclosed mall on outskirts of Baltimore last Saturday and was struck by the crowds in stores as well as walkways and eateries. Rising consumer credit is not all "everyday living expenses."
    7 Nov 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5349) | Send Message
     
    "Rather too general a statement with unstated assumptions regarding time."

     

    It will depend will the subsidy mix changes go into effect.
    7 Nov 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Don't have those crowded mall where i live!!
    7 Nov 2012, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5349) | Send Message
     
    Nice review of new taxes coming to "fund" the gov.

     

    http://bit.ly/QpATFc
    7 Nov 2012, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    There is no if regarding tax increases. Obamatax will start being implemented in January!
    9 Nov 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Just opened a position in (AT) @ $12.73. Hat tip to MJ and Mr.Schafer
    7 Nov 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Just spoke with my Aunt... It's snowing like crazy in Queens NY with 50 mph gusts...
    7 Nov 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    Not a good development for people there at this time.
    7 Nov 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    FOCAL

     

    Snowing hard up here in Orange County as well, winds are calming down somewhat though ...Guess inland the storm is less severe.
    7 Nov 2012, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2103) | Send Message
     
    I heard a discussion this am on Bloomberg radio that the high winds would only be happening near the coast. Inland it would be much calmer. It is the nature of the nor'easter physics where cold continental air meets warmer saturated air coming off the ocean.

     

    Here in Westchester it has snowed quite a bit more than originally predicted. Looks like 4-6 inches already. But winds are not bad.

     

    I think folks got surprised by how quickly the snow came. We were not expecting so much today, and the roads got overwhelmed by folks rushing to get home when there was already 2-4 inches. my wife is sitting in parked traffic on the taconic parkway due to accidents. The idiots who cannot drive in snow got caught out.

     

    By hey, I came home to a house with power finally restored!
    7 Nov 2012, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    "By hey, I came home to a house with power finally restored! "

     

    Congrats!
    7 Nov 2012, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    I am going to use this sell off to position my portfolio long based on the following things that I see happening. It is not meant to be political... as IMO, both sides will come out with much of what they want. I think now that 2013 will be a decent year with moderate gains in employment, GDP, and equity prices based on the following:
    1. There will be no fiscal cliff...a deal will be reached even if they have to wait until Jan.2 ... so the Bush tax cuts expire and no vote has to be made to do it.
    2. Corporations will spend now. They do not have to fear retaliation from pol's. ATT was the first and many to follow (see my reply to the ATT post I made earlier) MSFT, APPL, Cisco, Google, have enough cash to move GDP 1/2% if they deploy only half of it. They all have too much cash and will be forced to put it to work or return it to shareholders. They can't do that now cause they would have to pay taxes to onshore it. This could take 2 years, but it will be systematic.
    3. Corp's will also hire....and it will ramp fast once started. Unemployment numbers will not show it fast, because of the baby boomer retirement skewing the numbers as I have said before.
    4. The house will be a much more bi-partisan group now. Making deals possible again. Deals that will help the USA.
    5. along with 1,3,4 above....states will fall in step too. You seen it begin with Christie & Obama in the past 2 weeks. Hospital & health insurance stocks soared today because they needed ObamaCare to survive.
    We probably get a budget now that healthcare is off the table. With spending that creates jobs that both parties want.
    6. Banks took a hit today, at some point during this correction they are a buy. Especially regionals like BBT. Even TBTF will benefit as employment picks up and corporations spend.
    7. Investment banks like GS may never return to their glory. i would avoid them at all costs.
    8. If Buffet remains active (and alive) BRK.A is a buy.
    9. I like MSFT & NOK too....they are too cheap compared to competitors and if they put cash to work they could do well.
    I think it will be a bumpy road for a while, many arguments and meetings getting past the fiscal cliff, new cabinet appointments etc. But it will get done. 80 letters from fortune 500 CEO's with probably 400 more to follow will see to it.
    We might even get a new tax code if we're lucky.
    7 Nov 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    "I am going to use this sell off to position my portfolio long based on the following things that I see happening. "

     

    I think you are doing a little dreaming with some of your points such as #4. Deals were always possible with the House but not as long as the Senate refused to even discuss House bills much less negotiate.
    7 Nov 2012, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    I could always be wrong, I just posted how I am playing investments so we wouldn't get into one liners on politics.
    7 Nov 2012, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    "I could always be wrong, I just posted how I am playing investments so we wouldn't get into one liners on politics."

     

    Kudos for that LT
    8 Nov 2012, 05:09 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    A queston about the sell off. If we go over the fiscal clift cap gains tax goes up for next year. Maybe folks are selling like crazy now to get in on the lower tax rate. I have talked to my advisor about this in the past. It matters not in tax defered accts like 401k, roth, or IRA (comment for the followers) but any other accounts it matters a lot.

     

    Just one more piece to the puzzle.
    7 Nov 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    dg...no doubt some have sold out of fear. But most that I know are long term holders and are not bailing. Day trading, short term trading or hedge funds is a different ball game.
    7 Nov 2012, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    "If we go over the fiscal clift cap gains tax goes up for next year."

     

    If I'm not mistaken there is much more to it than just an increase in capital gains tax. Doesn't the AMT problem rise to full force again as well? And, the 3.8% on unearned income levied by Obamacare whether or not we go over the "fiscal cliff"? And, the "holiday" on employee paid social security tax expires immediately resulting in lower take home pay for everyone that does not enjoy a pay increase effective January 1.
    7 Nov 2012, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    DG

     

    Thought you would like this article..

     

    http://bit.ly/SXnraR

     

    IT
    10 Nov 2012, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Sunday, November 18, 2:53 AM Barclays (BCS) has denied making an "illegal payment" to Saudi Arabia's Capital Markets Authority in order to win a license in the country to operate a wealth-management arm and investment bank. The refutation follows a report last week that U.S. authorities are investigating whether the bank made such payments.

     

    Just more banking garbage coming out!!
    18 Nov 2012, 05:35 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    people are not cutting spending.....consumer credit up $11 billion in september...much higher than expected.

     

    I think I missed something.

     

    This number is actually a drop from the previous month spending.

     

    http://fxn.ws/SNKXGg
    7 Nov 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Prior was down

     

    3:20 PM September Consumer Credit rises $11.36B vs. expectations of $10.05B, prior -$18.39B. Revolving loans fall $2.9B, non-revolving (student loans) up $14.3B. On percentage terms outstanding credit rose 5% in September, revolving -4.1%, non-revolving +9.2%. [U.S. Economy] Comment!
    7 Nov 2012, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    I started a position WLP today. Will add more if it goes lower. Flawed as it may be, Obamacare will be much more difficult to get rid of after his 2nd term when everything is in effect. The insurers, while having more people watching over their shoulder, are also going to enjoy having more customers. I think they do well over time.
    7 Nov 2012, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    All exemptions to Obama care should be removed. There should not be two classes of businesses in America. Those who are exempt from Obama care and those who have to follow.
    7 Nov 2012, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5349) | Send Message
     
    "I think they do well over time. "

     

    Careful. This is a consumption subsidy. It will build a bubble in insurance companies the same way the real estate consumption subsidies built bubbles in home builders and banks. Ride the bubble, but be on the look out for changes in the subsidy mix so you can plan an exit. Ramp ups in care mandates might be your signal.
    7 Nov 2012, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    "I think they do well over time."

     

    They might produce steady income, but capital gains or income growth potential appears quite limited to me.

     

    http://exm.nr/T5gu58
    <
    The Affordable Care Act requires that insurance companies spend at least 80 percent of premiums on patient care. This 80/20 provision guarantees that consumer premiums are going back to the consumers themselves—and not use for CEO bonuses or corporate retreats. Insurance companies who do not meet this 80 percent threshold must pay rebates to consumers. The amount depends on the extent to which the insurer fell below the 80 percent.
    <
    7 Nov 2012, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5349) | Send Message
     
    And if you think the provisions will stay where they are, then realize that everytime a politician needs another vote they will be rewritten to provide even more handouts. A bubble is going to form in the insurance industry, that is going to pop at some point. At that point equity holders will take a bath, and the gov will nationalize them. People that owned Freddie stock can tell you about that.
    7 Nov 2012, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    I believe that the 80/20 split is an effort to eliminate insurance companies by a slow bleed. I can not run my company on 20%.

     

    Rent, salary, benefits, electricity, office equip, computers, insurance, etc... will always be more than 20%. JMHO

     

    Forget about investor dividends.
    8 Nov 2012, 07:10 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Could you explain the 80/20 split DG?

     

    I've never dug into the law because I always thought that the Supreme Court would overturn it and that Obama would lose. Not my best run of foresight.
    8 Nov 2012, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Of the insurance premiums that are collected the insurance companies must pay out 80% of that money in Medical payments for services. They can keep the remaining 20% to run the insurance company.

     

    If they only pay out 78% they must pay back the insurance premium payers that 2% that was not paid out for services.

     

    This will cause the insurance companies to HAVE to fund all of their business operations on the 20%, forget catastrophic events and what have you. One pandemic and the insurance companies go under. Its set up to get them to fail at some point is my belief so we have to go to a single payer system sometime in the future or one insurance company at a time.
    8 Nov 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    It will also mean the insurance companies pay their employees $hit.

     

    They will try to payout very little and hold the rest in investment to make money on the float too!!
    8 Nov 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    DG

     

    So do you expect premiums to rise then? I am also ignorant of this new law (tax )....
    8 Nov 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    "So do you expect premiums to rise then?"

     

    That could certainly happen in an erratic fashion, but unless the added premiums are paid out to medical care and/or pharma providers any premium surplus to 80% of payout must be refunded to premium payers. Medical care insurance carriers will only be allowed 20% of premium revenue to cover cost of operations with coverage of any additional economic costs (including profit) limited to investment income. A surge of claims arising from, say, a calamitous event like superstorm Sandy could shrink the companies capital base and jeopardize the company.
    8 Nov 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    don't forget insurance companies tried to double premiums over a year ago. I doubt they go up much more.
    8 Nov 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    The answer is "maybe"...

     

    Much depends upon the impact which will come from the requirement to underwrite insurance for anyone, including those with prior existing conditions. This should impact the 80% number heavily, ie, creating much opportunity for transferring those costs to existing policyholders.

     

    As has been noted, this will likely be a temporary situation. This law is a signed, certain death certificate for every insurer, with only the date block left open. Or if you prefer, a case of regulatory russian roulette. As time goes on the various provisions will push more and more people onto the government "safety net" insurance roles (or into the tax penalty phase for those who elect not to "play" - which will be a simple arithmatic exercise for the young and healthy).

     

    The end will be a single payer system by attrition. What is unknown is just how long the attrition will last...

     

    I consider these insurers as poor investments, essentially "uninsurable", though the initial impact will tend to pick winners and losers from among the herd.

     

    Indeed, some pigs ARE more equal than others in a crony capitalist universe...

     

    For a while, at least.
    8 Nov 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    "I consider these insurers as poor investments, essentially "uninsurable", though the initial impact will tend to pick winners and losers from among the herd."

     

    In a real sense, any medical insurance company management that continues in the business is acquiescing to confiscation of property without compensation through indirect exercise of sovereign imminent domain authority.
    8 Nov 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Hearkening back to my oft-expressed "erosion of property rights" being our downfall. Been going on for decades.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    D

     

    Exactly my point!! Will 20% cover their operating expenses or do they need to raise rates for the 20% to increase in dollars?
    8 Nov 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    I too would not invest in health insurers....but premiums won't go up as much as some think.
    The "uninsured" will cost them, that is somewhat priced in with the huge premium increases already in place....also, most companies are already over the 20%. I think,, they got admin expense included in the payouts too.
    But, the big one is ..."Walk in Clinics" and Urgent Care clinics...they save up to 80% vs. the Emergency Room.
    An example is ... take a child to the ER (because Dr. office closed) with a fever and runny nose they give Tylenol...cost =$400. Walk in Clinic costs $20-$75.
    These are popping up everywhere...pharmacies like Walgreen, CVS already offer flu shots for $20-25, where the average Dr. visit is now $75.
    Remember I was a Nurse (critical care RN) and the last day I worked the ER at one of our small hospitals in the adjoining county we had a stomach virus (flu) outbreak....people came to the ER that Saturday, with nausea, vomiting, stomach cramps and fever.
    We gave them a bag of IV fluids, IV antibiotic, pain shot, anti-nausea drug and then....Chest X-ray, CT scan of the abdomen, to rule out bowel obstruction....total cost= $4000
    The only thing that helped was IV fluids, antibiotic & phenergan or Zofran for nausea. These were all young strong healthy adults and a few kids.
    We also admitted enough to fill the hospital rooms too.
    Hospitals have used the ER for the last 15 years to fill the hospitals full. "Defensive medicine" they called it. This is where the healthcare costs have skyrocketed.
    Keeping patients out of the ER will save much, much more than the cost of the uninsured and other related costs. IF, you let my team of nurses manage healthcare, we could reduce costs or revenues by 50%.
    The question is..where is hospitals going to get the lost revenue? Baby Boomers will use them as they age, but look for big increases in Hospice care, which is already starting & home health.

     

    You can google "10 things Health care clinics won't tell you" to the link to MarketWatch.com I think.....

     

    8 Nov 2012, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    There will be allot of consolidation in this space as smaller operators get squeezed. We have already seen life and casualty insurers with a health care segment sell that off as Met Life did last year. This trend will continue as we get inexorably closer to the health insurance crises that will justify single payer being implemented. That of course will be the end of private health insurance providers as they will either not be able to compete with the government or are outlawed by it. Shortly after that happens the government will exempt it's self from malpractice litigation. The progressives idea of tort reform. All in the name of keeping health care costs down. Rationing is now the name of the game.
    9 Nov 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Expect the pound to strengthen against the dollar. They have announced cancellation of QE.

     

    http://bit.ly/RZK1eF
    8 Nov 2012, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    They'll rejoin the QE party for the same reason every Central Bank does... they still need to export goods... and the US and EU are locked into QEi to prop up their economies and hide massive problems in foreclosed real estate (in the U.S., Spain, Ireland, Hungary, Poland etc.) that could totally collapse real estate prices, as well as all the CDOs & CMOs & CMSs, if QEi is not continued.

     

    Special note on places like Hungary and Poland... many of their mortgages were from Switzerland which is part of why the Swiss Central Bank also must keep up with QEi in order to prevent a global financial meltdown.

     

    Derivatives are so much fun. We should make more of them.
    8 Nov 2012, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    The UK is in a unique position to play off the $ vs the Euro. So long as the Euro and dollar both stay soft, they can avoid QE and remain export-competitive.

     

    If anything they may actually see an increase in companies moving manufacturing and support organizations there to capitalize on the situation. Ireland is also well-positioned to do the same, depending on how they play their hand with the EZ...

     

    Germany's dominance in exports is the one in trouble. Having climbed aboard the EZ tiger, now they either keep their seat or get devoured.
    8 Nov 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2103) | Send Message
     
    TB,

     

    "Having climbed aboard the EZ tiger, now they either keep their seat or get devoured."

     

    You have drawn a compelling image in my mind with words alone.
    8 Nov 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    if you've ever seen late night TV in Germany, the image would be... more colorful
    8 Nov 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Looks like the markets are trying to head south again.....

     

    Coumo just said storm damage is over 50 Billion dollars....What ever happened to losses in the Millions??

     

    Amazing!
    8 Nov 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Watch out... we are very close [4 points] to the S&P 200 day MA [1380]. It bounced at 1381...
    http://tinyurl.com/93v...
    8 Nov 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    FPA

     

    S&P broke 1380!!!
    8 Nov 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Interesting Times .... Yea!!!
    8 Nov 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Legget & Platt just announced pulling forward of dividend payment to avoid higher dividend tax effects that are coming.

     

    Per CNBC.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    Yes HTL, and I also think the downward market action we are now seeing post election may have a lot to do with "Quick Pre-2013 Moves" being made by the wealthy in anticipation of higher cap gains. It would certainly help explain why so many quality high total return gainers from this year are being hit hard: http://bloom.bg/TNnCp7
    8 Nov 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Mercy

     

    Or the wealthy expect harder times ahead? Gold and Silver keep creeping up !!!

     

    I don't believe we have a fiscal cliff issue, a big can that is dent proof will be kicked down the road for a while..
    8 Nov 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    Re: "Or the wealthy expect harder times ahead"

     

    -- I don't think you have to be wealthy to have that expectation of harder times ahead IT. Ron Paul may be closer to nailing it when he says "We're Broke and Already Over Fiscal Cliff." http://bloom.bg/Z7OmBR
    8 Nov 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Fox Business just reported that a US drone was shot down in international waters and is blaming Iran..

     

    Lets see where this goes, as 2 planes were involved and now reports are saying it missed the drone...

     

    Ok, whos telling the truth, and what are we going to do?
    8 Nov 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    IT just saw the CNN report with more details on incident: http://bit.ly/Z8f6SK
    8 Nov 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    "Fox Business just reported that a US drone was shot down in international waters and is blaming Iran.."

     

    ahhhh, not quite! The report I read said two Iranian planes fired in the direction of an unmanned U.S. drone flying over the Persian Gulf in international waters without damaging the drone.
    8 Nov 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    MERCY

     

    Ok, so why didn't we hear about this BEFORE the Election? It happened on NOV 1ST...

     

    This is very disturbing that it was held from the public...That BO again did nothing. I have a feeling Isreal will tell BO to take a walk and start bombing very soon!!imo
    8 Nov 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    D

     

    I posted that as well above...But it is still disturbing it was held back from the public...Especially since it was in International waters and Iran!!

     

    IT
    8 Nov 2012, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    It was an unmanned drone. Just a call for perspective...

     

    If a redneck shoots my mailbox it's just not as bad as shooting at my occupied house.
    8 Nov 2012, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    JPAU

     

    Sorry, i disagree...First did they know it was unmanned? Comparing this to a redneck shooting your mailbox is kinda silly...

     

    Plus the public should know this !! You honestly think drones in international waters is no big issue?

     

    Just learned they are a bad shooter as well. Missed an unmanned drone? Maybe we just drop a nuke on them and say sorry we meant iraq? Take out their nukes at the same time,,,Does that sound good to you ?

     

    wow..
    8 Nov 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Jpau: does it get more serious if it's not a redneck?

     

    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2012, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5349) | Send Message
     
    What if its a bitter clinger. Oh wait, no one was making fun of a portion of the population with those types of comments.
    8 Nov 2012, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    First did they know it was unmanned?
    Um, it's a drone?

     

    Jpau: does it get more serious if it's not a redneck?
    I grew up in rural TN. It was hardly uncommon to see road signs, and the occasional mailbox peppered with shot. I was commonly chalked up to hicks or rednecks. Sorry if the example was passe

     

    While it wouldn't be cool regardless of which nationality shot at our drone, the point remains that they shot at an inanimate object, not a person.
    8 Nov 2012, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    ,Your house in an inanimate object as well...So i guess it's ok to shoot at anything as long as a person isn't involved?

     

    Well i look at this incident differerntly, If you shoot in international waters you are breaking the law...Held accountable, and should get a surprise in return!!

     

    A southerner not willing to pull a trigger/LOL
    8 Nov 2012, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    - national security is not national disclosure

     

    - if they told us 5 days before the election, there would have been shouts about attempts to use the info for the election

     

    - (not to mention it being an inapproriate distraction from national focus on helping those in need from Hurricane Sandy)

     

    - unmanned or manned, the drum beat for bombing Iran is getting louder than McCain singing "Bomb Iran" to the tune of "Barbara Ann" during his 2008 campaign (waiting for a rap star to do a remix on that)

     

    - still can't believe we have to deal with all this because of Michael Jackson

     

    - if U.S., Israel, and/or both, go to war/bomb with Iran, I will call it the Michael Jackson War

     

    - (the global media complex across the entire political spectrum completely abandoned coverage of the pro-democracy Green Revolution in Iran in order to cover Michael Jackson's death 24/7 for a week without reference to any other news in the world back in 2009... most shameful moment in the history of news migrating to being all about ratings and entertainment I've seen... literally left people unattended without cameras to die in the streets to interview infinite numbers of people willing to cry about the death of an eccentric pop star 'round the clock)
    8 Nov 2012, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Which Michael Jackson? The rock star, or the craft brew expert? Was the dude or dudette flying this drone drinking some Stoudt's Triple Bock? And still out-foxed the Iranian Air Force. ;-)

     

    http://binged.it/XoDSzI

     

    Great news that Iran's Air Force is so terrible that they couldn't shoot down a remotely operated drone.
    9 Nov 2012, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    The music star. The one with a monkey that briefly married Elvis's daughter. I was never of the opinion that he rocked.
    9 Nov 2012, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    That kid at the controls had the Iranians doing backflips...lol

     

    It was a video game played by a 13 year old..Read Iranians were puking trying to fly behind it...lol.
    9 Nov 2012, 02:38 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5349) | Send Message
     
    Remember this story? The Chinese pilot's name was Wang Wei (think wong way).

     

    http://bit.ly/TPpihI
    9 Nov 2012, 07:01 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    If you feel the need to answer everyones post at least read them thoroughly...Go back to mine and see how you made another mistake!!
    11 Nov 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    And just at the finish, the S&P closes below its 200 day MA...
    Tomorrow is going to be interesting.
    8 Nov 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Prospect Capital (PSEC) announces 77% Increase in Net Investment Income per Share and $0.47 Increase in Net Asset Value per Share for First Fiscal Quarter Over Prior Year First Fiscal Quarter

     

    Our net asset value per share on September 30, 2012 stood at $10.88 per share, an increase of $0.05 per share from June 30, 2012, and an increase of $0.47 per share from September 30, 2011.

     

    On November 7, 2012, we issued 35,000,000 shares of our common stock to the public at an initial price of $11.10 per share to the public (or $10.96 per share net proceeds after commissions and expenses), raising $383.6 million of net proceeds.
    http://tinyurl.com/aow...
    ---

     

    More than a three-fourths increase in investment income! I expect a pop on PSEC tomorrow morning.

     

    The stock closed today at $10.57 which is about 3% below book(10.88) and 4.8% below the offering price (11.10).

     

    Woo Woo! Tip of the hat to OG, Paul, and Trip...
    8 Nov 2012, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    FPA

     

    Not sure you saw this!!

     

    http://yhoo.it/Q2kc2w
    9 Nov 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Thanks IT... I did see it... the stock is rated very highly.
    9 Nov 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Jim Rogers speaks the obvious: more money printing, weaker dollar, higher commodity prices, etc. ahead http://bit.ly/PDPUSq
    8 Nov 2012, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    I am waiting for someone to tell me when the money runs out and the takers go without and the riots start, and the city's burn, and the preppers are right, and, and , well hell Armageddon starts.
    8 Nov 2012, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    when? when we don't expect it...

     

    when those who have waited for it see things happening in a way that they lose their faith and think things will be okay, and 70% or more of them ditch the plans they made for it...

     

    THEN

     

    it will be like 2008 in slow motion, a few weeks before Lehman went under... with QE (or something) seeming likely to stave off the economic nether regions once more...

     

    JMHO
    8 Nov 2012, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Signs...

     

    Congress passes capital control laws to lock up American assets so they can't escape. (Already done to an extent, current laws are on the books though weak in nature thus far).

     

    "Deficit reduction" (no one has the stones to even hint at "budget balancing") is the major media chant, followed by negotiations to determine the size of the new "one time" tax on retirement accounts. I am predicting 15%, but then again, I trust the "one time" promise about as much as I trust the promises made during WWI that the income tax would be a short term measure to address the current emergency...

     

    With the tax-deferred status of IRA's pierced, some clever operators will discover hiterhto unknown loopholes (doubtless put into place at the bidding of various cronies of the powers in DC) in the capital controls, and capital flight will occur until some true believer blows the whistle, at which time frantic new legislation will be put in place to close down the loopholes.

     

    Security measures at our borders will finally see large and effective upgrades... But on the side of the aisle facing INWARD. Searches looking for Americans seeking to escape Amerika with their assets transformed into gemstones, etc, will use the latest technology to deter escape. 1099 records for the sale of precious metals and other high ticket items will be dumped into a profiling algorithm, and lists of names will be placed under surveillance by Federal operatives. Sting operations against "friendly" dealers and brokers suspected of keeping incomplete records (against current Federal law) will be widely publicized...

     

    More later...
    9 Nov 2012, 07:12 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    just lost a very long musing response

     

    Capitalist Exploits (Fiji), Sovereign Man (Mauritius & Chile), and Without Borders (Paraguay), have some ideas on other countries to move to. Additionally, Sovereign Man writes periodically about how to get other passports.

     

    Have not heard about "one-time" tax on retirement funds. Got links?

     

    Mused about cancelling social security on PQC the other day because we don't have funds and we're already manipulating payouts to be below poverty line by printing falsely low inflation numbers to save $$$. What's the use? Give out below poverty-level payments to the few that need it, payout gravy to the rest who don't need it, all from funds we simply already spent.

     

    Not that worried personally. Wife and I will just revert to youth and backpack around Europe with her passport still over there if we all go to pot.

     

    Always look forward to your insightful posts TB. Curious where you're going with this train of thought.
    9 Nov 2012, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    The idea of taxing the retirement accounts has been around a long time. On 3 seperate occasions that I can recall it failed in Committee in the Congress.

     

    But I regret that post if its going to start a lot of link research and so forth. Its just some musing of mine to answer the topic of "what might be the warning signs" here in the USA. Of course, if one waits until firm capital controls are in place (Greece and the EZ in general are potential examples, probably before we reach such a state).

     

    The train of thought left the station long ago, Jon.

     

    Do you recall the passion spiele when Algore and Bush2 had their photo finish election? There were loads of high profile liberals (particularly several Hollywood celebreties) that promised to move out of the country if the election did not go their way. To date none of course actually left...

     

    One thing that is truly predictable is that there are polar opposites to most extremes, and I am now keeping an eye on the large crowd standing at the opposite philosophical pole from those algore fans...

     

    As polar opposites they are of course hidebound conservatives rather than liberals... And silent rather than screaming into every available media outlet. They made no rash public promises should their country elect their political enemies...

     

    But I suspect at least a large minority will, indeed, leave and take their assets with them, without notice or fanfare.

     

    This will not occur overnight, and it will be done with skill far from the media spotlight.

     

    This group is not the same as those who prepare for bad times and plan to hunker down and survive... And perhaps they are the smartest among us.

     

    But my imagination is captured by the symmetry between this silent minority and the overbearing empty threateners on the opposite ideological pole.
    9 Nov 2012, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    I met people who left due to Bush II. Though none that really caused a loss of much tax revenue. As I think about it, have already met people who left because of BO's 1st term, but didn't do the math because they don't say out loud why they relocated to another country, but makes the sudden move in their story make more sense.

     

    Very few Americans feel that ability to be mobile though. I believe it can take up to a decade relocated to avoid the long arm of the IRS and estate taxes.

     

    In any case, my wife just voted for the first time as a U.S. citizen on Tuesday. We know there are going to be rough rides globally, but we'll ride out whatever bopping between being around my family here and her family in Europe (which will be no better). There are things more valuable than money, and we'll only protect our money as much as possible withint that constraint. Suspect that's true for many, which is what allays mass exodus.
    9 Nov 2012, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    "As polar opposites they are of course hidebound conservatives rather than liberals... And silent rather than screaming into every available media outlet. They made no rash public promises should their country elect their political enemies..."

     

    And then there are 'conservatives' without the means to relocate entire families (including children and grandchildren) and reject the 'liberal' assertion that "resistance is futile, you will be assimilated."
    9 Nov 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    VIX ... good article
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    9 Nov 2012, 05:58 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Oversold everywhere....might be a good day for a day trade to the upside
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    9 Nov 2012, 07:03 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Just the beginning, LT. TIme to look at the offshore commodity side...
    9 Nov 2012, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    Agree with TB -- LT. I think this is just the beginning although the BOTS will give us slow teases along the way. I unwound a trading bloc yesterday in less than 24 hours -- because the price action suggests a long road ahead. DJIA futures down 75 points now 1 hour before the opening bell http://bit.ly/nXGqkT

     

    I think folks are still underestimating the impact of the article I posted earlier: http://bloom.bg/TNnCp7 IMO it is explaining the sell-off in so many companies which have delivered the highest total returns this year.
    9 Nov 2012, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Star Wars VII will acutally have an HFT subplot ;-)
    R2-D2 invents a new algorithm and joins the dark side...
    9 Nov 2012, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Mercy, I think that article is the crux of what is going on. Again me and my financial advisor discussed this months ago as a solution but since my money is mostly in retirement accounts I am not effected. I am sure advisors across America had this same discussion with their folks and it is now starting to play out.

     

    Money is being chased from the playing field to avoid tax consequences and if it comes back what ever they buy will be cheaper.

     

    Folks that make these decisions need to think about the significance of that glaring fact. Unless its part of the plan.....colander glowing now.
    9 Nov 2012, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    Yes DG. For example I am seeing so much speculation in StockTalk on why AAPL has taken a dive -- but most are ignoring disclosures by many fund managers that they are selling for tax reasons. Jim Cramer is the latest to have sold AAPL while admitting -- "I'd rather pay $1 in cap gains today than $2 tomorrow." I took a look at my watch list of over 100 symbols and it appears that the sell-off is unusually weighted toward those which have had a good run in 2012.

     

    BTW maybe the President's planned speech later today will give us another short pop to sell into.
    9 Nov 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    "I took a look at my watch list of over 100 symbols and it appears that the sell-off is unusually weighted toward those which have had a good run in 2012."

     

    I've noticed the same, MJ.
    9 Nov 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Totally agree, MJ. We saw a similar scenario which was the Renegade's operating thesis last election when it was anticipated that the Bush tax cuts would be allowed to sunset. Now we see a similar result with a slightly different base case.

     

    The idea that POTUS will appear on the media to bask in the glory of his victory and exhort the faithful is right on the bullseye, and yes, it presents an excellent selling opp for those slow to react. I am already fully withdrawn into my shell and out of my various small trades...
    9 Nov 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    Just a slightly different perspective. I don't like the way the election went, either, but I don't see it as the end of the world. It is the reality in which we must live, fight, debate, discourse and invest.

     

    For instance: Regarding all the steps taken to get income, divs and cap gains under the 2012 tax rules are ones that will likely mitigate a free-fall, like pushing bonuses, some of which will be invested, into 2012 rather than 2013. Yin and yang.

     

    Obama has no greater power now after a 50/48 election in which the lower house, which most accurately reflects the people, will force compromise on all these issues. Ideologues from both sides will be angered, but the result may most likely be a less onerous set of new rules we may not like but the other side won't either. Welcome to classical dialectic. Thesis - antithesis - synthesis.
    9 Nov 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    I agree Joseph....in fact I will say that if played right both sides win and so does the USA. (and both sides may want to as well as need to)
    9 Nov 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >LT ... In my little pond, here in N.Texas, the mob is very dour. I don't know how the rest of the country views things at the moment but for a brief time the good Conservatives are in a conciliatory mood and have uttered the word "compromise" in the same sentence as "America's problems". When quizzed about what they mean I find it means that they will now agree that if Obama will accept 100%, with no alteration, the Romney/Ryan agenda they won't stand in the way. Now they don't know what that agenda is exactly but it probably includes repeal of Obamacare, lowering taxes, reduce social spending, reigning in the EPA & Education Depts, building up the military for war with Iran, privatizing SS, massive deregulation, appointing "good" conservatives to the SCOTUS (if it comes up), etc. etc.

     

    So, the best I can tell, the resulting election has wrought is my friends have rediscovered the word (not the meaning) of "compromise".
    9 Nov 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    LOL DrRich ! It's probably true. Most here are just glad it's over, even tho KY went to Romney.

     

    It will be a hard fought negotiation on the way to a deal, but I am glad they went to work on it day one.
    9 Nov 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5349) | Send Message
     
    "repeal of Obamacare, lowering taxes, reduce social spending, reigning in the EPA & Education Depts, building up the military for war with Iran, privatizing SS, massive deregulation, appointing "good" conservatives to the SCOTUS (if it comes up), etc. etc."

     

    With the exception of gov regulation of international affairs (known as war), this would be a prescription for a huge recovery. A deal to cut spending and raise taxes to "balance the budget" is going to produce a recession or come pretty close.

     

    A "balance the budget" approach, depending on how big it is, is essentially cancelling the Fed Res notes in existence that are bidding up equities. The question will be that when this happens, will the Fed be able to compensate enough to get the equity prices bid back up.

     

    Another recession, or recessionaryish type of environment, will result in more unemployment. As such, the chances of CPI inflation will be negligible, as such the Fed should have room to move.

     

    So what you would expect in such a scenario would be a March 2009 type of scenario. A big drop, lots of unemployement, and then the Fed and fiscal "stimulus" feed the wealth transfer back to the financial markets.

     

    The problem this time is you won't have wealth transfer via fiscal "stimulus", just the opposite. The so called "compromise" that everyone seems to be on about and they think makes them sound like the most reasonable people on the planet, is just the opposite of the fiscal "stimulus" that occured beginning in 2009 and ending in 2011. So the big drop off in equity prices may not rebound back like it did after March 2009.

     

    The secret to bidding up asset prices is to get lots of Fed Res notes chasing after equities. This lowers interests rates and creates unemployment. This results in lower financing costs for companies and downward pressure on wages that keeps operating costs low. Granted this is bad for the unemployed, but we can just stick them on welfare, and then pat ourselves on the back for our compassion, never mind we ruined their lives.

     

    The question will be the volume of the "compromise" if it happens, and the the volume of the Fed's response.
    9 Nov 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    "Most here are just glad it's over, even tho KY went to Romney. "

     

    November 7 I held that view, LT. In light of reports coming out of Philadelphia, Florida, and possibly other areas I've not read yet, though, the "it's over" view is premature.

     

    http://bit.ly/VO0RDG
    9 Nov 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    D

     

    So your argument against the popular vote was that the major states would essentially control the election. Well if you look at the map that is exactly what just hapened.. NY, NJ, PENN, FLA, CALI, to name a few..

     

    CNN is also calling for a repeal of that constitution to make EVERY vote be equal...Look how close the popular vote was.

     

    Sorry, but that old argument of Electorial votes is out of vogue to me and others as of now !!

     

    I still hope one day for the POTUS it is a majority vote !! Time will tell.. My friends in OHIO said almost every other ad on TV was about the election and they were getting nastier by the day. This system is broken as well.
    10 Nov 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    "CNN is also calling for a repeal of that constitution to make EVERY vote be equal...Look how close the popular vote was."

     

    If CNN is supporting repeal or amendment of the Constitution that is almost reason enough in and of itself to reject repeal or amendment.

     

    "Sorry, but that old argument of Electorial votes is out of vogue to me and others as of now !!"

     

    And your opinion on the matter is out of vogue with me.
    11 Nov 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    D

     

    You seem to enjoy arguing...get a life.

     

    It is amazing reading your post how angry you get, don't you have anything better to do then to try and convince everyone you are right?

     

    I know Axion is causing your anxiety..there is all the proof i need!

     

    It's laughable!!! Don't speak for others either, makes you look foolish..
    11 Nov 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    I will sleep better knowing you agree with MJ!!
    11 Nov 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/SItKeQ

     

    Global warming !!! Sure is....
    12 Nov 2012, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Then givr each state no matter size or poulation two electorial votes!
    14 Nov 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    I might add that, with no clear business solution from BO, the dollar should weaken over the next four years, include more printing, so ADR's might be really good investments depending upon the company. This however will only appear good if your comparing our fiat to their fiat. I still like my precious metal investments and am now considering miners and the SWC type of investments a bit more closely.

     

    BO may create a secretary of business, promote Jeffrey Emelt maybe, but it will help as much as the present committee Jeffrey is on. Its a talking point for BO to look good, not a walking point to make change or actually do something.
    9 Nov 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    I played the weaker dollar game for years.

     

    The problem is, in the end, everyone else feels compelled to weaken their own currencies when the dollar is weakened - it just dominoes from one country to the next. Norway and Singapore are still maybe in the game, but most have abandoned trying to be the strong currency that rises to the top, and instead quest toward total global paper devaluation.

     

    (insert comments we've all said about precious metals before here)
    9 Nov 2012, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    I think you are way too negative....Your hatred for one man causes a bias toward anything/any article that has negative doomsday news.

     

    For every negative (and there are some with merit) I see 10 positives and outweigh the negatives.

     

    Time will tell, but naysayers have been wrong for 4 years, and IMO they are wrong now.
    9 Nov 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    LT, I have done well with PM's under both Bush and BO. It seems to be working so you might call it hatred because we point out why certain investments are working and why they are not.

     

    The fact is the naysayers have not been wrong about the dollar plunge just look at gold. When everyone's currency is plunging over the cliff together looking to see how far down one has gone requires us to look up to where we fell from not at the other guy falling beside us.

     

    Politics are driving this market now not financial news. QE, Taxs, govt spending, tarp, stinmulus, etc.....all political options with NOTHING to do with financial facts.

     

    We had Bush with greenspan and now we have BO with bernenky. There is no difference.

     

    PM's would be doing a lot better but 5 margin inceases in 8 days was more govt intervention in an attempt to make the situation not look so bad. JMHO as to how you look at the facts.
    9 Nov 2012, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    There is truth in what you say dg, I wasn't just implying PM's or just politics. I too made money in physical PM's....not enough but got my childs part. I am just afraid to play them now. I still dabble in physical when I find it at a nice discount. Gold got close enough to the $2000 for me to be happy and back away ... gov's are going to use PM's as collateral IMO, but they also can manipulate prices to their advantage. Therefore I tread lightly.

     

    Politics & the global crisis is what it is...but playing the positives has so far made me more than doom & gloom.
    9 Nov 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    I have made money on positives but when I compare that money made to gold over that same period....I made nothing. It is a vapor myth of profit since that dollar is worth less compared to gold. When you count your chips make sure you look at the value of the chip not the number of chips.

     

    I constantly have to remind myself of this sad fact every time I think I am doing well in a stock. I do not think this is going to change any time soon and the fact that I was not fully "aware" during Greenspan/Bush slaughter of our country does not mean I should keep my mouth shut now.

     

    My investments into PM's began in 2003 time frame and I did not equate it to the Greenspan/Bush agenda until later in Bushs second term. I was an "Idiot" back then. Not again!!!

     

    Both party's will spend us blind, destroy this country, enrich thier financial backers, manipulate the poor for a vote, manipulate the middle class for a vote, make promises they NEVER intend to keep and we have got to figure this out.

     

    The rich are getting rich right now bailing out of this market to save tax dollars and they will come back in after the market has plunged some percent. They will probably get a call when the PPT and banks are going to start supporting things again. You and I will not get that call. JMHO
    9 Nov 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Love that last paragraph, and it is so true "the rich get a call" after whatever % drop comes.
    9 Nov 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Just remember neither party has a monopoly on the rich.
    9 Nov 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    But the rich have a monopoly on our government!
    9 Nov 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    "it is so true 'the rich get a call' after whatever % drop comes. "

     

    And RICH Congressional Democrats outnumber rich or RICH Republicans many times over. They like the playing field tilted in their favor and intend to keep it that way.
    9 Nov 2012, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    "Sooner or later, we will enter another recession. ... when it comes, it is very likely we will enter it prior to the Fed having ‘normalized’ monetary policy, and we’ll have a large fiscal deficit to boot. What tools will the Fed and the Congress have at that point? If the Fed is willing to deploy this new set of desperate measures in these frustrating, but non-desperate times, what will it do then? We don’t know, but a large allocation to gold still seems like a very good idea..."

     

    -- David Einhorn Q3 client letter (as posted elsewhere by one of his subscribers)
    9 Nov 2012, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Obama speech was just that, all talk !!! I heard nothing new...
    9 Nov 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    I didn't hear anything new either IT. The President wants to deal with the middle class tax cuts now SEPARATELY from all of the other fiscal cliff issues. He says he is ready with "pen in hand" to sign tax cut extensions for the middle class and leave tax increases in place for the wealthy. The Republicans know that this issue is their only leverage in getting the President to consider greater fiscal responsibility so they would be foolish to allow a piecemeal approach to the fiscal cliff solution.

     

    So -- help me here -- isn't this the same place we were last time when compromise could not be reached?
    9 Nov 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5349) | Send Message
     
    I hope they don't compromise. From what I can see the compromise will be worse than the can kicking. I'm hoping for more can kicking. At least the can is just dented, rather than crushed.
    9 Nov 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Funny, after he spoke the market started to sell off!!

     

    Now the General of the CIA resigned? Wonder why?

     

    Guess someone had to take the fall for Bengazi...
    9 Nov 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    They knew Wednesday morning that was the deal...the same one "O" & Boehner agreed to before. That's why they jumped on it day one.

     

    This time...it's either pass what they had, maybe even get a few perks or go off the cliff. It's their choice & they know it. Now let the fun begin. But the Bush tax cuts are gone by Jan.1
    9 Nov 2012, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5349) | Send Message
     
    "But the Bush tax cuts are gone by Jan.1 "

     

    When there are less Fed Res notes to bid up financial assets like equities their prices will come down. If the Fed can respond with enough new Fed Res note creation, then they can be inflated back up. Its classic wealth transfer. If you can time it right, you can have some of that wealth transferred your way. Just hope you don't loose your job because of it. If your income is from investments, you shouldn't have any worries.
    9 Nov 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    I have been evaluating my oil positions this week. France has technically entered a recession (two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction), and the German numbers were not pretty. I see nothing positive for France in the next reported quarter either. On top of that, we have the Greek powder keg. And while Spain is quiet for now, it’s another powder keg. Yet another powder keg is all the posturing over the fiscal cliff. More fear entered into the mix...

     

    Meanwhile, the S&P is in close proximity to its 200 day MA. A lot of ALGOS use the 200-day technical as a tipping point. So being within a few tenths from that tipping point is a red flag for me.

     

    So at this point in time, I am seeing dangerous waters with more downside risk than upside potential on current holdings. In other words, I see more upside potential to having a good amount of liquidity on hand to pick up potential bargains on a big down. So I went into turtle mode this morning and liquidated my oil positions.
    9 Nov 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    I think that's a prudent move in this environment FPA. My equity allocation continues 70-75% cash for the near term. I would rather have a 10% opportunity loss on the ride back up than a definite 10% loss on continued downward pressure. And it does take a toll on returns, but does help in preservation of capital.
    9 Nov 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    I am STILL in VIX with a big bet. ;-{)
    9 Nov 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Love those metals though!!! But i do and have posted a nice size correction, or a new lower DOW that might stay there a while...

     

    The Election is over, so the party is over as well. Now we get back to reality !!

     

    BTW our Town is STILL having gas shortages, no lines as maybe half have gas but still a head scratcher being an hr away from the shores in NY..

     

    Didn't help that an Assembly person from our area said if we saw an open gas station we should stop in and top it off. Not sure if that meant a problem was ahead, but i can't remember the last time i bought 15 bucks of gas.....In fact it made me think of the 70's when that would fill me up !!...Now it got me about 4 gallons plus???

     

    wow.
    9 Nov 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    For you battery nuts....XIDE misses big time on profit and revenue. Some thought they would have a good quarter.

     

    4:25 PM Exide (XIDE): FQ2 EPS loss of $0.18 misses by $0.20. Revenue of $712M misses by $41M. (PR) [Earnings] Comment!
    9 Nov 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    CIA chief, Lockheed Martin CEO to be, both resigned due to affairs.

     

    Wonder who is next ?
    9 Nov 2012, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Was just at my sports officials dinner and have a ton of military guys there. This CIA issue is deeper than just an affair. They all said she could have just disappeared....no questions asked!!
    9 Nov 2012, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    Probably just a publicity stunt for Skyfall
    9 Nov 2012, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    http://huff.to/SM9skX

     

    Could not help posting this!!!
    10 Nov 2012, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    This is not political, but is going to effect Wall St. more than any of us think.

     

    I am publishing this to go along with Interesting Times post above and also his post re: changing the electoral vote to a majority, In another 4-8 years they will be the majority too. So either way they are going to influence change in a huge way.

     

    There is a big movement going on in two fronts, both effect Wall st. big time. The movement in CA and by other speakers are calling for "less Wall St. - More main st.".
    The Occupy Wall St. is the young generation that corporations refused to hire...sorta like a conspiracy to punish them for their vote 4 years ago....
    Now both are a big challenge to the good ole boyz.

     

    http://yhoo.it/TBoElR
    10 Nov 2012, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    LT

     

    I have a 24 year old daughter and her visions of our govt and investing is way different then what we were taught. They have such a distrust of Wall St, AND the govt that they honestly feel major changes need to be made.

     

    To her, and her friends, Mitt had no chance since it was his belief that Abortion if raped was frowned upon. They feel that a women should have a choice, and knowing that MiTT flipped positions just showed the mistrust.

     

    I posted the Occupy one because i really believe once they have the money to invest it might be different if at all,,,Her boyfriend, who is 26 was allowed to purchase a 150k truck for his business with no questions asked. He even thought that was strange 2 years ago and said this was good for him

     

    But what about the companies bottom line as he knew alot of people that got approved would default on their loans, and had no cosigners..So i agree times are changing!!
    10 Nov 2012, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for sharing that IT .. it reinforces what I meant exactly.

     

    Sentiment against wall st. is fixing to sky rocket. I really don't think this group will tolerate what we have.
    10 Nov 2012, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Now add this tax hike..Didn't take long pertaining to guns did it!!

     

    http://huff.to/Q4Xdnw

     

    LT. I might add she has a Teaching Degree and is working on her Masters as well. Lucky for her i and her went to the same high school so as a sub she gets called daily, but with no benefits, and with the tenure law in NY if a teacher was let go for anything other than disiplinary reasons that teacher HAS to be offered an opening for up to 7 years!!

     

    So, again due to the Teachers union she is screwed. I have a ton of people who i officiate high school sports with that are teachers, Principals, Vice Principals that i now hope what she tried to do on her own will allow me to make some calls for her..

     

    But working in the school system she sees so much money wasted it is amazing. Example, a women had a 90k full time paying job. She offered to take the job part time for half the money and said she could still get the job done. That half the day she did NOTHING! Well they said no, she resigned , and they filled the position as full time..
    10 Nov 2012, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    Here's some data/perspective for the coming investing week of 11/12:

     

    Wall St Week Ahead: 'Fiscal cliff' blues may lead to correction: http://reut.rs/XuyxXF

     

    Also just saw that while the Oct nonfarm payroll numbers were not "strategically delayed" -- it appears that the mushrooming numbers on the Food Stamp rolls were delayed 9 days -- far past the election. The numbers reveal a new all-time record and biggest monthly increase in the past 12 months: http://bit.ly/STlXgM

     

    Draw your own conclusions as to what lies ahead.
    11 Nov 2012, 07:22 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Israel warning shots fired into Syria http://bit.ly/TCKVQ6
    11 Nov 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Pharmaceutical humor. Saturday Night Live does hilarious skit about allergies and medication for them

     

    http://bit.ly/UwlqVc

     

    or

     

    http://bit.ly/TpW32W

     

    (both links are for same sketch)
    11 Nov 2012, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    The real reason corporations want the fiscal cliff resolved quick....they are next on the list for tax increases and loopholes closed...they are paying almost zero taxes worldwide.

     

    4:56 AM The U.K. parliament's Public Accounts Committee (PAC) is due to question execs from Starbucks (SBUX), Google (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN) today about how they they use loopholes and offshore subsidiaries to pay so little in tax despite generating huge sales. Google, for example, last year paid just £3.4M on sales of $4B despite a group-wide margin of 33%, while Amazon paid under £1M on sales of $5.3B-$7.2B. Comment! [Consumer, Tech]
    12 Nov 2012, 05:23 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Upside down message. 3rd paragraph should be first, but 2nd paragraph is your QC investment news.

     

    Shorting Turquoise Hill (TRQ) (formerly Ivanhoe Mines) is still very much a play. Had been told legislation to raise royalty taxes on their Oyu Tolgoi project was in play (contravening the Oyu Tolgoi Investment Agreement of 2009). Am told via e-mail, this was passed on Monday in Mongolia with new budget. (Also still pending, legislation that strikes down a tax treay with country where TRQ is domiciled (Netherlands).)

     

    Have an article pending with SA since yesterday morning (east coast time) that would discuss this issue and some other issues that have made outlook for Mongolia very negative near-term. Can't find an editor to give me a status on it after fast-tracking it, Fast-tracked it because news cycle is going nuts in Mongolia (has been for weeks, just getting to a crescendo this week, and finally decided to go public on something no one will say publicly). And, moreover, I realized over the weekend that some guys in business in Mongolia I know did not know they could lose their businesses if they don't submit a new filing form to the government this week (from a foreign investment law passed in May).

     

    Have e-mail fast-track and submissions @ SA twice. Kind of frustrated. Need it to publish, or need a note on what to revise about the article, so I can do it. By 7:30 a.m. on the east coast I have to transition to dealing with challenging personal issues that took up most of my time last week and by 10 a.m. I'm out of pocket. Sigh
    12 Nov 2012, 05:52 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Article is now published.

     

    Mongolia Investment Climate At The Moment: Uh Oh

     

    http://bit.ly/Tu3qq5
    12 Nov 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    That's a great article Jon... Thanks.
    12 Nov 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    From SA "Must Know News", although the outcome suggests a title of "Already Expected News" would be better.

     

    "JPM staff to escape charges in latest SEC deal". Subscription site:

     

    http://on.wsj.com/VWGc0i

     

    The SEC doesn't plan to indict any JPMorgan (JPM) employees in a deal to resolve the alleged fraudulent sale of mortgage bonds by the bank's Bear Stearns unit, the WSJ reports. That's despite SEC Commissioner Luis Aguilar last month saying that the lack of individual accountability for financial-crisis wrongdoing has led to a "significant amount of public concern, and understandably so".

     

    HardToLove
    12 Nov 2012, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    From ZH. LBMA Chairman Says Chinese Gold Allocation To Rise

     

    This could effect the market price of gold.

     

    http://bit.ly/TtXy06
    12 Nov 2012, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    I think gold would drop significantly under normal circumstances contrary to popular opinion.....This changes the game now. I expect on any further pullbacks for the Chinese to lend buying support.

     

    Makes me think there may be something else going on with all the major govt's stashing higher gold reserves.
    12 Nov 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    I loved "Only at the Fed don't they eat or drive" when Faber was discussing the 6%-10% inflation estimate he had.

     

    Personally, I think folks who don't eat or drive should not be in charge of monetary policy, regardless of constitutional issues with their very existence and the failings of "debt money".

     

    We all know that early signs of starvation include reduced mental capacity, focus and the onset of hallucinations, which might include delusions that (paraphrased) "We have everything under control and are 100% certain we can unwind this in a timely manner", from Bernanke in an interview.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Nov 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Likely that purchase increases are due to the expectation that gold will be considered tier 1 capital.

     

    CBs are going to need a bunch of that.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Nov 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    Last week Jon talked about titanium and I suggested TIE. Up 42%+- on takeover news. Take the money and run!
    12 Nov 2012, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    WOWWWwwwwwwwwwww. Way to Go OG!!!!!!!!
    12 Nov 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Great move, OG! Well done!
    12 Nov 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Something going on in energy....especially oil. All the majors are selling assets. Exxon selling Iraq, Total selling Nigeria, There have been a couple more deals already done.

     

    It's odd they have been accumulating, now they dumping.
    12 Nov 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    LT: maybe if the U.S. doesn't import the markets are *very* much smaller and the price *very* much lower down the road? Sell assets now, raising cash tht can later be deployed other ways. If "loopholes" (N.B. same deductions allowed to other industries?) are to be closed and profits taxed at higher rates, take profit at lower rates now?

     

    HardToLove
    12 Nov 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Moody’s: Obama will approve Keystone XL pipeline:

     

    http://bit.ly/Zwo5xa

     

    More positive predictions coming in about the US being a net oil and gas exporter by 2030, energy independent by 2020, and by the same year, will once again rise to the largest global producer of oil, surpassing Saudi Arabia:

     

    http://bit.ly/ZgJfjz

     

    Significant prediction, especially from a geopolitical standpoint.
    12 Nov 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    "especially from a geopolitical standpoint."

     

    Yep let someone else protect the oil shipping lanes and spend their money on that service. We are broke!!!
    12 Nov 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Monday, November 12, 12:28 PM An eye-opener, domestic equity funds had $30B in outflows in October, according to a Goldman report (as reported by Raj Dhaliwal). It's the largest amount of the year, and represents one-third of all of 2011's outflows. Bond funds had their biggest inflows of the year - $44B against an average $32B. (see credit risk "euphoria")

     

    No surprise here!!!
    12 Nov 2012, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    1.7 Billion vehicles on the road by 2035 (20 years away)

     

    http://bit.ly/RzENbG
    13 Nov 2012, 04:45 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Kass....long now, says economic fears overblown. Good article.

     

    http://bit.ly/RUQ8CT
    13 Nov 2012, 06:38 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    Here's an excellent checklist to weigh when assessing the latest IEA's World Energy Outlook 2012 telling us "America will become the largest producer of oil and other liquid fuels on Earth by 2020; it will be entirely self-sufficient by 2030; and a net exporter by 2035." I found the reason cited for China's motivation to expand oil investments in the West fast -- particularly on target. "Ten Reasons To Be Concerned About U.S. Energy Independence" http://onforb.es/SJwjNI
    13 Nov 2012, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Mercy: Sobering thoughts.

     

    I almost want to vote for IEA being wrong and keeping their record intact.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Nov 2012, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    And further supporting the observation above on China's oil investment maneuvers -- we now hear from Sinopec's Chairman:

     

    "Sinopec's goal in signing foreign partnership deals is to boost market production overall and not to bring resources it acquires back to China .."

     

    I read this as China supports "drill baby drill" to keep global oil supply rising and oil prices dropping. http://on.wsj.com/RV5Qhp
    13 Nov 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Mercy. Interesting perspective. Some of it perhaps overreaching a bit. I rather suspect the West is moving to primary emphasis on adaptation to climate change (versus mitigation) regardless of what happens to world oil supply.
    13 Nov 2012, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    MJ: That quote from Sinopec is one of those where I use my "inverse rule", ie, the truth is 180 degrees out of sync with the plain message. I would have written a longer and less crude response, but my BS detectors all went off simultaneously for some reason...
    13 Nov 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    OT: If you're not already aware, thought you might be interested in a bit of general election statistics from Maryland. Gary Johnson pulled 1.2% of the vote, but in each of the eight Maryland congressional districts Libertarian candidates pulled 2% or better and in six of those districts (IIRC) the share of votes cast was 3% or more. Those numbers are larger than last time I bothered to check Statewide vote tallies or party registrations.
    13 Nov 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    You may be right, TB, but it does reflect well how they are operating with some Canadian players like TLM. They start out with a small investment ... followed by JV ... and then when "partner's" pps or operating cash flow is weak they strike for a buy when the target "wants to sell." In the meantime -- more production, more supply, and better import prices for China. In light of sovereign sensitivities in the West to Chinese acquisitions of natural resources -- I also think Sinopec has figured out that they have a greater chance of approval when the target is closer to being "ready to sell."
    13 Nov 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    8:28 AM GE is selling two MicroLNG plants to Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE), which is opening a network of 70 natural gas fueling stations at existing truck stops on U.S. highways this year. Clean Energy plans to increase that number to 150 in 2013, saying that natural gas can save 25% of a truck's fuel costs. GE sees the LNG equipment market rising to $1B within five years. Comment!
    13 Nov 2012, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Tuesday, November 13, 7:01 AM Greece should be able to redeem €5B of T-bills on Friday after raising €4.06B in a sale of bills this morning, above its target of €3.125B. Primary dealers have until Thursday to submit non-competitive bids which will likely bring the total above €5B

     

    Greece will make it through the week. What a comforting feeling !!!
    13 Nov 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Gades,

     

    Trying to get SA to change policies so I can publish articles about Sri Lanka and other places instead of having to go elsewhere.

     

    Blog http://bit.ly/QF3eYg
    13 Nov 2012, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    This blog is starting to gain some traction. Thank you all for your help.

     

    Been getting more e-mails from people about Mongolia, from folks that seem very plugged in. My last article seems to have underestimated how bad things are near-term. Not sure what to do about it. What the heck could I title my next article? Gov't has to seriously reverse some policies or plumbing over there is going to blow... because the economy is so small, I doubt there will be any knock on effects elsewhere... but who knows with how globally interconnected the back room plumbing is nowadays.
    14 Nov 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    I just signed on....thanks
    14 Nov 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Who will reinvest there if there is chaos all over in the international markets. They wont even get a look see until the chaos is over and then it might be way down the road. So if they screw it up now it could be a long time to recovery. Just a thought.
    14 Nov 2012, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    DG,

     

    The mining companies will come back when they have the leverage to get good deals out of the gov't. The way things are going, they're going to have that leverage. That in a nutshell, is the stupidity of the current gov't policies: long-term they're actually going to give more leverage to the miners instead of getting more tax revenues from them.
    14 Nov 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/PSWHYy

     

    Did anyone know about this happening to every homeowner??

     

    I was just made aware of this and caught me off guard!!
    13 Nov 2012, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    I am in compliance. Built in 1999 and that was the unit installed.

     

    Drain hose and plastic pipe are not that difficult. Who are they kidding.
    13 Nov 2012, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    DG

     

    OK, i live in a codo,,A member is trying to tell me unit will cost a ton more and i will need two holes in roof, which will be my responsibility.

     

    Guy stated could run 6k, is he crazy? Is your unit 90% efficient.?

     

    I am lost on this one...Plus i knew nothing about it either. This was sent to me via email from a board memeber..Do you see a ton of extra costs?

     

    You also mentioned 1999..It that an important year because i upgraded around then.

     

    Could use some help here, Thanks.
    13 Nov 2012, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    Interesting times: It looks lke the law doesn't change until May of 2013. So, if your furnace is at the end of its useful life, why not change it now, before these new laws kick in, so you don't have to worry about it for another decade or two?
    14 Nov 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    I have no idea when the 90% efficient came out. My unit was hyped up when we built as meeting the most efficient standards 90%. They now offer 96% efficient units.

     

    My two holes go out the side of my building not the roof.
    14 Nov 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    That's the advantage of living in a SFH. You can do what you want to, but in a condo you would need permission to drill through the building and likely would be denied--
    You need permits and approvals for everything.
    Condo living is an adjustment for free thinkers.
    14 Nov 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Yup, that is what i am considering. Putting in an 80% unit and kicking the can down the road!! But my furnace is only 12 years old and have no idea what is the useful life out of one...
    14 Nov 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Actually i spoke to a condo rep and they legally cannot deny me the extra drilling out the side, however they can charge me for a person to inspect the work...

     

    Tough decision to make, the board member is leaning towards changing his unit NOW to a 80% unit so as you said, he won't have to worry about if for years !!
    14 Nov 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Just spoke to my plumber and he suggested to stay with my unit. Said he can always get parts, and as more people learn about this, the manufacturers are already talking about making units that only require one hole anyway.

     

    So i will roll the dice, and pray!!
    14 Nov 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    “Do not blame Caesar, blame the people of Rome who have so enthusiastically acclaimed and adored him and rejoiced in their loss of freedom and danced in his path and gave him triumphal processions. Blame the people who hail him when he speaks in the Forum of the ‘new, wonderful, good society’ which shall now be Rome’s, interpreted to mean: more money, more ease, more security, more living fatly at the expense of the industrious.” — Marcus Tullius Cicero
    14 Nov 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    http://huff.to/WetXYi

     

    Even Michele is pushing for some answers..This POTUS could care less,,imo
    18 Nov 2012, 04:39 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    Potus to speak in a few minutes; markets falling?
    Reminds of this this:
    http://bit.ly/XFKQ3t
    14 Nov 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    As Isreal is bombing !!!
    14 Nov 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    please specify where they're bombing next time

     

    there's a difference between Gaza and Iran
    14 Nov 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    I know there is a difference, my point is they are bombing!!
    14 Nov 2012, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    They are responding to rocket fire from Gaza.
    14 Nov 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Reporting they killed a biggie, sorry i don't have his name...
    14 Nov 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Senior Hamas millitary commander in Gaza killed by Israeli air strike. http://usat.ly/SN62OF
    14 Nov 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Egypt recalls ambassador to Israel over Gaza hit.
    14 Nov 2012, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    HAMAS and ISREAL now pounding eachother with bombs!! I posted once BO won Isreal was going to start bombing away at whomever attacks them

     

    BO won't have any say, and this can escalate the situation in the middle east..
    14 Nov 2012, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Israelis missile defense system working at 80%. Iron Dome and a new one, Davids Sling, will come on line in 2014.

     

    http://fxn.ws/U1AHeG
    15 Nov 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Over 6,000 new regulations have suddenly been anounced by King, Voldemort and company. http://bit.ly/SMR2jS The war on coal continues unabated http://bit.ly/XFTOxD and will accellerate. That effort has gone so well that they are turning their attention to the other fossil fuels. http://bit.ly/SRLQOh This is just the begining as fracking will be shut down as well.
    14 Nov 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    How do you like my profile picture now?
    14 Nov 2012, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >optionsgirl ... Still not very flattering
    14 Nov 2012, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Also POTUS is asking now for 1.6 Trillion in added expenses. Funny when he was running for office it was 800 billion!!

     

    Per Fox Business...
    14 Nov 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    Wednesday, November 14, 10:29 AM The run of late-day market declines looks so familiar to the action of 5 years ago that Art Cashin dug out a note of his from November 2007. "Like playing poker ... you can bluff and posture ... (but) old traders see the final minutes of trading as truth time ... everything up until then is stage play. That's why the action in the final 30 minutes ... is of concern."

     

    How true that comment seems to be. Amazed the day after the election a 1k point drop happens? Yet people don't believe in manipulation...
    14 Nov 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Sister sent me this gem:

     

    To all our Democrat friends (yes, we do have some).

     

    The election is over, the talking is done.
    My party lost, your party won.
    So let us be friends, let arguments pass.
    I'll hug my elephant, you kiss your ass.
    Have a great day
    14 Nov 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    That is hilarious Maya! Still LOL.
    14 Nov 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Mercy: Yesterday, I also received this stunning card trick vid in my email inbox. The best card trick I have ever seen, by far:

     

    http://bit.ly/SNePA4
    14 Nov 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    Now that's a card trick! How in the world can someone execute that? He ought to try "his hand" at trading stocks. :-))
    14 Nov 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    The way I heard it was: "I'll hug your elephant, you kiss MY ass"
    15 Nov 2012, 01:26 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10172) | Send Message
     
    The FHA is expected to report this week an even slimmer buffer of reserves than the 0.12% of loan guarantees it had last year (the law requires a 2% cushion, so much for that). The FHA had the particular bad fortune of not participating in the housing boom, but then seeing soaring business just as the bust was getting underway, making its losses (as a percentage of business) especially nasty.
    14 Nov 2012, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Just think with Freddie and Fannie sharing the abundant load of toxic mortgage debt purchased from the TBTF institutions they are right behind FHA.
    15 Nov 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    Ron Paul's farewell to Congress. For you Libertarians:
    http://bit.ly/TJGaVl
    14 Nov 2012, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message