QuickChat's  Instablog

QuickChat
Send Message
  • Quick Chat Number 138. Beginning 01/13/2011 After Market 112 comments
    Jan 13, 2011 5:53 PM

    Welcome to the Gathering of the Gades! All who venture here for the free exchange of trading and investing thoughts and ideas are welcome!

    You are hereby advised to be following the QuickChat I.D., found here, to automatically receive notifications of new QCs and comments by the QC I.D.

    If you forget to do that, be sure and look at the end of each QC when it approaches a comment count of ~100 as another will be started around that time and a notification and link to it will be provided in a comment.

    Thanks to Lower98th for the efforts on the previous Quick Chats.

    I hope that all have enjoyed a rewarding, both personally and financially, holiday season.

    I, HardToLove (a.k.a. H. T. Love), am your temporary host for the continuation of the QCs started by OptionsGirl and hope I can do even half as well she and Lower98th have done.

    All complaints can be addressed to either the profile associated with this QC or to H. T. Love, temporarily. Unfortunately, like Walmart, we don't have a complaint desk, per se, so you'll be on your own. :-))

    Stocks mentioned or discussed in QC 137: AGNC, AMD, ANR, APC, ARLP, BCON, Bunnings Warehouse, Chinese YUAN, CPST, CQP, CYB, FXE, GBG, GFI, GLD, GS, HL, IMAX, INTC, MCP, MET, Mitre 10 Australia, on WES, NEP, NXG, NXTH, PAL, PFG, PSEC, QID, RIO, RNO, SCOK, SLW, SVM, SWC, WFAFY, WFAFF, XIDE

    Stocks mentioned or discussed in QC 136: AEGY, AOL, APPL, ASPXF, ATPG, AVL, AVXL.OB, AXPW, BP, CHGI, COP, Copper, CPST, CQP, CVX, DOM, DTV, DUK, Facebook, FCG, FXE, GBG, GLDNF.PK, GPRLF, GS, HDY, ICO, INTC, IVAN, KGILF.PK, JPM, LYSDY, MET, MLPG, NATUF, NTCXF, NUSMF, NVAX, NVDA, PFG, PGN, PNPFF, PSEC, REMX, RIG, S, SBLK, SCOK, SGQRF, SNDXF, SVM, T, TGH, TOD, TWC, UNG, UNL, USD, VZ, WATG, WPRT, XIDE, XM, ZLCS

    Stocks mentioned or discussed in QC 135: ABX, ATPG, AUY, AVL, BAC, BONL, BX, CAGC, COP, CPST, DANG, EK, EUO, EVR, FCX, FEED, GBG, GLD, GLL, HDY, ICLK, JAG, JPM, KNDI, LYSCF, LYSDY, MCP, MS, MSFT, NG, OTT, PAL, PCX, PMNHF, PSEC, RTK, SB, SDS, SHZ, SLV, SNDXF, SVM, SWC, SYNM, V, VNG, WATG, ZLCS, XING

    Stocks mentioned or discussed in QC 134: ACI, ANR, ATPG, AVL, AXAS, AXPW, BEXP, BGP, BHP, BONL, BTU, CHGI.OB, CLD, CPST, DCHAF.PK, DRYS, DZZ, EXK, FTR, GBG, GDLNF.PK, GMO, GMT, GNI, GPRLF, GTI, GWMGF, HL, HUDRF.PK, ICLK, ICO, IMAX, IMGN, KGILF.PK, KOG, KSU, LYSCF, LYSDY, MCP, MEE, NG, NRP, NVAX, PAL, PCX, PNPFF, PSLV, PUDA, PVR, PWE, PZE, RBY, RIO, RTK, SIL, SLV, SNDXF.PK, SPX, STP, SUG, SVM, TASXF.PK, UNP, XIDE, XING, ZLCS

    Stocks mentioned or discussed in QC 133: ABT, AGU, APWR, ATPG, AVL, AXAS, BEXP, BIDU, BNRJF, BONL, CAGC, CAVO, CHGS, CRDC, CPST, CQP, CROJF, CRS, CTEL, CTRP, ECA, ECH, EGI, EMMCF, FEED, FMCN, FMETF, HBC, GELYF, GMO, GSFVF, GU, HOGS, HYGS, IPI, JPM, KNDI, KOG, LFL, LNG, LYSDY, MCP, MRO, MS, NXTH, NVAX, PLG, POPT, QREDF, RAX, RBY, REMX, RIG, SB, SLV, SEED, SQM, TC, TMV, TOO, UURAF, VISN, VNM, WATG, XING, XOM, ZLCS

    STOCKS MENTIONED IN QC # 132 - 131 CAN BE FOUND IN QC # 137 just ahead of the start of the comments..


Back To QuickChat's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (112)
Track new comments
  • QuickChat
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment from robert. b. ferguson in QC # 137:

     

    Intel (INTC) beat on earnings. However market conditions in the sector are deteriorating so the fortune teller just might be right about PPS going down some. news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20...
    13 Jan 2011, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Continuing our Aussie (alliteration alert!) destruction discussion ...

     

    "The direct costs to the Australian economy as a result of this disaster could total $9 billion, as many roads, bridges, railroads and mines will need repair or rebuilding."

     

    The article discusses a lot of the fallout from food and coal issues too! I think it's a bit premature to be able to assign a price tag, but the fundamental considerations seem on target.

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    HardToLove
    13 Jan 2011, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    An interesting post on coal and NG from Investor Village. I had recently been thing of jumping into SWN. Need to wait for a better entry point though.

     

    www.investorvillage.co...

     

    HardToLove
    14 Jan 2011, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    That old cowboy song...."Dang me, Dang me. They're gonna take a rope and hang me.."
    14 Jan 2011, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    "They're gonna take a rope"

     

    Not to be nit picky, and I'm going from a (usually reliable for lyrics) memory, I think it was "they oughta take a rope and hang me", "high from the highest tree", "woman won't you weep (cry?) for me".

     

    Corrections welcomed.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Jan 2011, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    Hope this is not a metaphor for trading efforts. DANG

     

    Well here I sit high, gettin' ideas
    Ain't nothing but a fool would live like this
    Out all night and runnin' wild
    Woman sittin' home with a month old child

     

    CHORUS:
    Dang me, dang me
    They oughta take a rope and hang me
    High from the highest tree
    Woman would you weep for me.

     

    Just sittin' around drinkin' with the rest of the guys
    Six rounds bought, and I bought five
    Spent the half the groceries and all the rent
    Like fourteen dollars having twenty seven cents.

     

    (CHORUS)

     

    Roses are red and violets are purple
    Sugar is sweet and so is maple surple
    I was the seventh out of seven sons
    My pappy was a pistol
    I'm a son of a gun.
    14 Jan 2011, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Always nice to recall olden times in song.

     

    Thanks!

     

    HardToLove
    14 Jan 2011, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Thinking about placing a small order on a position in gold if it drops to $1350.00 , any thoughts?? Could use a Little advice

     

    ACE
    14 Jan 2011, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Ace: Careful with gold and silver. Here's what I discovered yesterday (written in the Hindenberg Omen column). Gold and silver down big pre-market.

     

    ####

     

    Thanks John and Rocks: That could be why there was an unusual oddity in the down dollar and mining stocks today.

     

    The euro rally due to bonds came right in time with a double bottom for (FXE) I noticed a few days ago. I was tempted to get in, but I didn't play it.

     

    What I'm more intrigued about is all the death crosses I see being, or having already formed in many mining stocks I track (using six month charts). See (ABX), (SLW), (AEM), (KGC), (NEM), (BVN) for instance.

     

    Even all the Cramer hype about Nova Gold hasn't prevented (NG) from enduring a death cross.

     

    Doc copper also is double topping, short term. I need to see a few more sessions before I attempt a directional conclusion.

     

    These PM pullbacks could be due to sector rotation, or, it could be a warning sign of an upcoming broader pullback.

     

    John, Remember when we both saw (SPX) RSI back in July...how it showed a possible bottom, and Doug Kass a few days later called the year low? Well, (SPX) RSI has been floating along the overbought line of 80 since December 20th. If you take a look at the year chart of (SPX), we see that a couple weeks before last April's hefty correction, RSI was at a two year high. On December 22nd it was as high (overbought) as any time since last April, possibly giving us another heads up a few weeks in advance.

     

    I got out of, or severely reduced my silver and gold postions weeks back, and I'm trying to figure from a technical standpoint of when to get back in. But when I see all these death crosses and the (SPX) RSI being so high, for such a duration, it makes me squeamish about getting long right now.
    14 Jan 2011, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    ACE: However, we do have excellent mining reports coming soon, as the 4th quarter was fantastic for miners. I need to find out when miners begin to report 4th quarter earnings. That could be the time to buy, or just before.
    14 Jan 2011, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    MAYA

     

    Thanks, as all i have is my physical left for that rainy day, Appreciate the info, i know you posted something similar a few days ago as well

     

    ACE
    14 Jan 2011, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3362) | Send Message
     
    Don't know about gold do know Brent is hanging though in the upper $90's so gold won't go down a lot. Shares will take a bigger %age hit.
    14 Jan 2011, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3362) | Send Message
     
    Uranium jumped $2.50, am hanging onto PMNHF regardless now
    14 Jan 2011, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I kept 75% of mine. You might also look into (NOURF.PK), Lynas owns 10% of the company, its a combined REE and Uranium play in Australia, up crazy today.
    14 Jan 2011, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    About those municipal bonds. With New Jersey selling only 40% of their offering (and at a higher rate), others unable to roll older debt, and Vanguard abandoning their new funds, it looks like the consciousness level has been raised (and not just by Meridith). So what does default (not literally) look like: higher interest rates? inability to tap capital markets? Cancellation of large bond-funded projects?
    14 Jan 2011, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (PCX): FBR cuts to market perform along with Walter Energy.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Jan 2011, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3362) | Send Message
     
    CQP, Chairman/CEO unloaded All of his shares including odd lot on 1/3, didn't report until 1/13 or so just under $22.

     

    I originally bought when he was accumulating.
    14 Jan 2011, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    I bought a little (GBG), I am slowly starting back into pm.
    Re: Zalicus-
    Garza is saying ZLCS can be worth double digits. biomedreports.com/2011...
    14 Jan 2011, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    (IBIO) This is one very intriguing biotech concept! I bought a little yesterday, added a little more right after this morning's bell. Up over 13% today.

     

    Anything Bill Gates is involved with attracts my attention. Hat tip to M.E. Garza for this one.

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    ####

     

    Seems my gamer account is leaning more, gathering more biotech stocks. (IBIO), (NVAX), (IMGN), (ZLCS) and (CRDC) are all in my own little biotech quasi ETF. Right now, the symbol could be "ZINIC!"
    14 Jan 2011, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I think that's a great find Maya…. I looked into IBIO…

     

    If I am reading it correctly, IBio's business model is basically fee based as opposed to dependency on specific product development.

     

    They are serving as middle-men collecting fees for access to key intellectual property, fees for products developed using that intellectual property, fees for serving as brokers between sources of capital, fees for lobbying services, and fees for on-going supplies needed by the start-up companies...

     

    Although they don't mention it, I would think they would also be involved with consulting fees, advertising fees, distribution fees and so on. They primary function appears to be helping member companies get products to market cheaper and faster while they collect fees and are involved in the middle of the deal making process. I see several deal making companies are their partners.

     

    I like it.... I have not seen anything like this before... They perform a start-up support function for new biotech companies.

     

    I looked into "...catalysts around the corner" that Garza was referring too.. I found this tinyurl.com/4nderno

     

    The Company’s Phase I clinical trial of the technology has commenced and top-line results are expected in the coming months., iBio is positioned to quickly secure deals that will result in royalty streams later this year. Plus, the pending FDA approval decision for comparable Protalix (NYSE:AMEX PRX) in February could drive investors toward iBio.

     

    Its interesting that Goldman is looking at this... the first thing I thought about was this was the kind of company that people from Goldman would probably design.

     

    Its up 13.3% today….. I am opening a position in it and will likely hold it at least until the end of February when I will revaluate to see if the catalyst did indeed occur.
    14 Jan 2011, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    MAYA

     

    I just jumped in also for 1k shares, I like what i have read and well see in Feb. what the outcome is. But the business concept seems unique to me. Hope the article wasn't a pump and dump job !!!

     

    ACE
    14 Jan 2011, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    ACE: Me too! Surely did finish up very strong! Love a penny stock that jumps a buck in a day. Hoping it doesn't pull back. This was one very quiet IPO. Especially when the Gates are involved.

     

    Rooting for your Jets this weekend!
    14 Jan 2011, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, gotta root for Pitt as well. A nice FRIENDLY bet with my brother in law will be in order if it is a NY/PITT final...

     

    ACE
    14 Jan 2011, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    slw of biotech. Like it.
    14 Jan 2011, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    LOWER

     

    Exactly what was going through my mind as that (SLW)was my first purchase listening to the group and HYPER of course. But being new i still don't know when the pump in on or the article is legit. Had to take a run at it and learn !!!

     

    ACE
    14 Jan 2011, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Gold and silver getting hammered:
    finance.yahoo.com/news...;_ylt=AklHZzzvMb5ZHmpu...
    14 Jan 2011, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Here's a short list of ETFs that short gold and silver:
    (GLL)
    (ZSL) silver
    (DZZ)
    (DGZ)
    14 Jan 2011, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Yep. One of "those" fridays...

     

    Still trying to see what is what...

     

    Broader markets are up a bit, though, so its hard to judge, I think I will spend some time eyeballing the currency wars and China...
    14 Jan 2011, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    JPM is up like a shot...

     

    Hurhmmmph.

     

    Don't tell me its as simple as that - that Darth and his Death Star are going up, so all us good guys have it hard?
    14 Jan 2011, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    JPM's numbers were divine. Up something like 47% for the quarter. You could do that well too, if only you were Jamie Diamond.
    14 Jan 2011, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Silentz
    , contributor
    Comments (716) | Send Message
     
    POMO has been a boon to the trader(traitor?) banks.
    14 Jan 2011, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    you know how much of JPM's victory is because of slashed reserves? Thirty-two cents ($.32).
    14 Jan 2011, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    A poll just came out that 71% of Americans oppose increasing US Debt ceiling, and even want the US to default.
    KA BOOM
    14 Jan 2011, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Maybe they mixed it up with the UofM sentiment survey results this morning. ISTR a similar pessimistic number out of that.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Jan 2011, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, baby! IBIO now up almost 18%!

     

    This morning, I was wondering what was going on, as maybe 10-15 minutes after the bell the stock had only traded maybe 12,000 shares, of which 500 were mine. Now 229K moved.

     

    Nice!
    14 Jan 2011, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    MAYA

     

    I was late to the game but i will take a 3% profit in less than an hour !! I KNOW THIS ONE IS GONNA SWING, but willing to hold on for a while.

     

    ACE
    14 Jan 2011, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    This is an Interesting company, the latest acquisition by PNPFF, the ticker is MKVDF
    www.realpennies.com/ot.../
    14 Jan 2011, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Anyone wondering why coal miners are dropping like flies today:

     

    finance.yahoo.com/news...

     

    Perception is that this is just the first salvo in the coming carbogeddon.

     

    Who needs Global Warming or Kyoto/Copenhagen (or even the US Congress or Laws) when you run the EPA?

     

    The only hope is that this particular ruling has merit on its own, and like the other dozen times in history that the EPA has exercised this "veto" power, its a rare and unusual occurance...

     

    ...Though I must confess a certain infamous radio interview with a "man who would be king" wherein he promised to bankrupt "them" (coal fired power plant owners) springs to mind...
    14 Jan 2011, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Borders stopped paying its suppliers. Now its suppliers are cutting them off. Bye bye!
    Pretty soon it won't be possible to go spend some down time at the book store, one of my favorite things to do.
    14 Jan 2011, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    Have that one short hedge....down about 3% so far. Guess I'm going to hold it over the weekend.
    14 Jan 2011, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Which one, Lower? I shorted silver with (ZSL). I'm down 11 cents. I suck at shorting.
    14 Jan 2011, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Silentz
    , contributor
    Comments (716) | Send Message
     
    As long as you don't hit another Massey-cre...
    14 Jan 2011, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    SDS. At $23.42 Ditto on the shorting....but I have a "captured" account, and the cost of going to cash on multiple positions is significant. And getting stopped out wholesale is the same, so at some technical points I put in a hedge. So far in 2010 about 50/50. But maybe I'll learn.
    14 Jan 2011, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    I bet you will do ok on that one. Dicey few weeks ahead, for silver.
    14 Jan 2011, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    I'm on the long side. Bought some physical today and am buying into miners. This is temporary, and too hard to time imo.
    14 Jan 2011, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Far be it from me to advise you about anything. But, I'd be very careful about deploying $s toward any PM stock right now. Even palladium.
    15 Jan 2011, 01:12 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    I mostly got out of China Northeast Petroleum Holdings (NEP) yesterday before the big plummet. (NEP) has a very bright future. I did add back some late today.

     

    14 Jan 2011, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    About the Aussie big box store play. Both (WFAFY) and (WFAFF) are related to the Wesfarmers in the land down under. I wrote back and asked if one is an ADR and why the price discrepancy. Should have the answer MON.
    14 Jan 2011, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    wfafy is the adr and it has light volume and closed at $16.01
    WFAFF at $33 is not tradable, it had no volume ( it said 3 on Yahoo.) I didn't bother to go into Schwab to research it. It's better to wait and see what the broker says.
    The volume concerns me. I'd rather trade on the aussie exchange than get into another pink sheets that doesn't move, especially at that price!
    14 Jan 2011, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5080) | Send Message
     
    I added TTM today on the theory that the 4 month lows in the Indian market are mostly responsible for its recent decline. It faces some headwinds -- increasing interest rates in India may hurt car buyers, some quality issues or rumors, etc.

     

    But the growth of the Indian car buying market is a story many companies will get a piece of and TTM is one of them. With a forward P/E of 7.5, the odds that this stock will regain the $30 level this by the end of spring I think are fairly high. And if sentiment picks up for the Indian economy, things could go much higher.

     

    One of the problems with India is inflation due to overheating. This is a nice problem to have given most of the world picture.

     

    Finally, take a second to marvel at the Sergeant Pepper pic, because it is going away soon :)
    14 Jan 2011, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    DM: You would have made a great subject for...wait a minute...have to Google, 'cause my synapses and nerons are not coordinating...yes...an Andy Warhol subject.

     

    Long time ago, I shared some drinks with his son. Not going to tell stories forthwith.
    15 Jan 2011, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5080) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't have guessed that Andy Warhol had a son...
    15 Jan 2011, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Maya, ACE: Greetings. Be aware that the national weather service has issued a falling bird warning for the greater Chicago area on Sunday between the hours of 12:00 Noon and continuing through the fourth quarter. Falling birds could be heaviest around the Soldier Field area. Heavy accumulation of fallen birds is expected. POSTED ACROSS BEAR NATION! WE ARE EVERYWHERE! GO BEARS; BEAT seahawks! Packer fans need not comment.....
    15 Jan 2011, 01:00 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    I here the same phenomena is going to happen in Pittsburgh, today.

     

    Funny, Robert!
    15 Jan 2011, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Da Bears got it done, in fact i am actually turning it off in the third qtr., heading to church, and praying for my J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS....MAYA
    told you Ravens could be beat !!!!Now it is time to see if my team shows up !!!!!
    16 Jan 2011, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    anybody see my BRADY voodoo doll. If not i guess my wife will have to step in and play Brady for an hour....I told her it only feels like acupuncture !!!!
    16 Jan 2011, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Some News From The Coal Sector
    ----------------------...
    (January 14, 2011) Australian mines will need months to pump out flood waters From: Reuters
    According to mining contractors, coal mines in Australia's flood-ravaged Queensland state could take up to six months to return to full operation tinyurl.com/4s54a49

     

    [this timeline just refers to the time needed to empty the water from the coal pits. Infrastructure repairs to rails, bridges, and roads are also likely to effect recovery time - Their rainy season continues for another two months.]

     

    ----------------------...
    (January 13, 2011) Australia floods force ships to look for coal supplies elsewhere From: Reuters

     

    An increasing number of dry bulk carriers are departing eastern Australia's coal ports empty-handed as devastating floods force companies to look for supplies elsewhere, traders and industry experts said.

     

    "Patience in Asia is quickly running out," said a Shanghai-based shipbroker. "I would say less than a dozen ships have been diverted from eastern Australia in the last week or so, but I'm sure that number will rise."

     

    Port congestion has surged at Dalrymple Bay and Gladstone, with some vessels anchored as long as 50 days waiting to load, according to UK-based Global Ports. That is four times longer than the average wait a month ago.

     

    Facing rising demurrage costs of $10 000 to $15 000 daily in managing the anchored vessels, global mining giant Rio Tinto and others that charter ships have ordered vessels to other regions, two traders said. [Demurrage - a charge required as compensation for the delay of a ship or freight car or other cargo beyond its scheduled time of departure. I learn something every day.]

     

    "As we have already seen, coal customers will try to find other ways to satisfy their demand for thermal coal but the real trouble is coking coal, as it is very hard to get from elsewhere," said Peter Sand, shipping analyst with ship association BIMCO. tinyurl.com/6xeuzuu
    __________________
    [A major disruption in the supply of coal, particularly metallurgical coal should cause earnings in companies like (ANR) (PCX) (MEE) to sharply increase in the next few quarters. (ANR) has already increased its shipment estimates for the first quarter of 2011. Prices of these stocks dropped Friday..]

     

    (January 14, 2011) Arch Coal, Alpha Natural lead Massey suitors -WSJ From: Reuters

     

    Coal producer Massey Energy's (MEE) board will decide on the company's future by month's end, with rivals Arch Coal (ACI) and Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) leading the pack to acquire the miner, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.

     

    The newspaper, citing people familiar with the matter, said steel giant ArcelorMittal (MT) is also interested in pursuing Massey, whose profits have dropped since 29 miners died at one of its mines last April. According to the report, officials from Arch and Alpha Natural have been touring Massey facilities recently.
    tinyurl.com/4uq9etg
    15 Jan 2011, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    User: Greetings. Only an extremely savvy, skilled and prescient investor like myself could make a coal play as I did the day before the EPA throws a wrench into the industry. LOL
    15 Jan 2011, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): A coherent thought about future CPST share price from Yahoo! (a very unusual occurrence AFAICT) poster Gib_Willis. middle of the page in the thread (at the time I read them).

     

    messages.finance.yahoo...

     

    Unfortunately, it is a good support for the short case. However, it does ignore the effect of "free money" so graciously provided by our responsible Fed and government officials, the current "green" push, ... no evaluation by normal techniques like DFCF, NPV, FCF, ... so it may not be the best gauge.

     

    And it sure doesn't account for market hype.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Jan 2011, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5080) | Send Message
     
    It also doesn't account for growth. There is a built in growth trajectory expected of any company that rates a PE of 20, but using his own numbers would suggest CPST was on a high growth path, and most investors would happily pay a higher PE for a company which has turned profitable and is experiencing or expecting to experience rapid growth.

     

    I like the analysis, but I would turn it on its ear to suggest if they did make $8M a year it would put a floor under their price of about $0.80. But of course all of this comes from an assumed performance that is not real. They are not yet making money and when they do there is nothing that says it can't be more than $8M.

     

    PE's are odd in how they use them. I like them to give me a glance at what is going on with a price, but for high growth (either baked in like AAPL) or expected growth (like NFLX) PE's are not all that useful. So for Gib to assume that the PE must somehow be no more than 20 (in addition to the arbitrary nature of his $8M earnings) is to build the stock price right into his example. The glib answer to the question of how we can get to $2 would be "PE of 40". The other answer would be "PE of 20 on $16M in earnings". Neither of these has to happen, of course, but his conservative example does not convince me that the stock is stuck at this level.

     

    The better part of the analysis is where he hints at the notion that they better make some money pretty soon...
    15 Jan 2011, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): The points you raise is why I mentioned the lack of consideration using traditional tools like discounted forward cash flow, net present value, ...

     

    Using annual estimates of earnings presently shown on my platform,

     

    2011 (-0.12)
    2012 (-0.04)
    2013 +0.03
    2014 +0.20

     

    We can see the growth potential, and by implication a positive cash flow (already achieved last quarterly report) that might lead to entirely different results, as you suggest.

     

    If we then add in the "irons in the fire" and assume just one or two of them begin to pay off in the next year or two, those earnings estimates, based as they are on only the improvement in margins, current backlog, ... get thrown out the window and one has to note, as you mention, a stronger growth prospect.

     

    This does lead to a potentially higher-multiple PE, if one contiues to use that metric.

     

    As a side note, Greentech environment alone has noted a 10-fold increase in its orders in the last year or so and it is heavily involved in CPST installations in Europe. This leads me to presume that the above earnings estimates are already too low.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Jan 2011, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    A P/E north of twenty is getting expensive in most stocks unless they are developmental. In those stocks like (CPST) a high P/E is to be expected as they have no earnings to speak of.
    15 Jan 2011, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Exactly, Robert. I agree. I am looking at things other than the PE with companies at this stage. My original critique was that they needed to get a handle on costs - waste - and demonstrate that their business plan would generate sales WITH some pricing power.

     

    I see strong progress toward all those goals.

     

    Now I want to see strong overall sales numbers so that those advantages can generate meaningful profits, from which we can extrapolate future earnigs...

     

    And look at fundamentals best applied to mature companies operating within a mature industry.

     

    A PE of 20 is "risky" for companies in many mature industries, particularly when their competition within that industry have better numbers...

     

    But in this case its not as important, given this company's recent history and obviously youthful stage of development.
    15 Jan 2011, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Paget Minerals:
    www.pagetminerals.com/...

     

    DM is a master of disguise, nice pic.
    15 Jan 2011, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5080) | Send Message
     
    Yeah baby, I'm a real international man of mystery.

     

    I'd like to post a pic like doubleguns did with his whitewater rafting. But any picture of me doing something that manly would be like a snapshot of a UFO -- an obvious fake.
    15 Jan 2011, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    A man who can look like The Beatles one day and Larry King another can do...
    anything.
    15 Jan 2011, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (13475) | Send Message
     
    The fall of borders sure does bode badly for the book business. I guess optionsgirl needs to drive extra to a Barnes and Noble now.

     

    Of course, a future where all publishing is digital and anyone can publish and sell at b$0.10 per copy to everyone will increase knowledge and its spread, encourage more writers now screened by major publishers, save the world a lot of trees, and make this business more efficient. So the future probably will be brighter with the tech change in publishing. As for me, I have a big problem with my mini-library every time I want to move (books take up a lot of space and are heavy).
    15 Jan 2011, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5080) | Send Message
     
    I agree. The invention of the printing press opened a new era of literacy. Pamphleting allowed for all kinds of political, religious, philisophical, and to some extent scientific expression. And the spread of science was promoted by book publications. I think the move to electronic publication will be just as destabilizing to the status quo and just as profound for the expression and advancement of ideas. Some of this effect has already been seen as a result of the web, of course, but most people do not read long and cogent pieces of writing on web pages. E-books will allow for complex works of research or expression to be made available from folks who would not normally get to publish. This will cause some turbulence from time to time, but is a win for the human condition in the long run I suspect.
    15 Jan 2011, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    "but is a win for the human condition in the long run I suspect"

     

    But will it be enough to offset the effects of the short attention span populace?

     

    I recently read a piece in the local paper that described how the printing press enabled not only the widespread dissemination of information but actually fostered critical thinking by enhancing the ability to lay out and present complex thoughts for examination over a long period of time.

     

    It also enhanced language skills which enhance the ability to think and communicate those thoughts effectively with others.

     

    The author's concern was that twitter, common texting, ... electronic reading devices, etc. combined with a short-attention span populace would throw us biologically back to pre-renaissance periods as we lose our ability to think critically long-term on complex issues.

     

    Think "Theory of Relativity".

     

    The author was essentially saying we need paper and the time in our society to reap the benefits that printed word on paper provides.

     

    As we have come to understand how the brain grows and develops, what the critical periods are in the growth cycle and when certain things get "hard wired", I share his concern.

     

    Anyone who has a passing familiarity with the development process that the young go through should see a potential risk with the way we do things now.

     

    At some point, we may not be able to blame "the education establishment" anymore for the failure to educate.

     

    It may become an effect of the societal and technical changes that we are currently experiencing: the future generations may, for the most part, not know how to think and may not be able to communicate complex thought even if some are still able to originate it.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 Jan 2011, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5080) | Send Message
     
    You lost me after the first couple sentences... j/k.

     

    Good points. But I wonder if we actually will adapt to this information overload. For example the critical thinking and analysis skills you refer to are probably something you'd ascribe to at least some members of the 20th century. But pluck a pre-renaissance person and stick them in that environment and it would appear to be nothing but information overload. Radio, Billboards, Television, Traffic. It would seem to this person that the quiet pace of life had been destroyed by pace of change and noisy inputs. Yet somehow some of our greatest thinking was done in the 20th century. "Information Overload" actually allowed for data collection and collaboration on a then unprecedented scale and led to many advances in science and arguably society.

     

    Looking forward to a pace that we find way too fast and fragmented, we may be missing that it will set the stage for brilliant minds to tie together loose ends that would have been impossible for them to connect in any other era. It is undoubtedly disruptive to our current paradigm, but I wonder if society and individuals might adjust better than we would guess. The idea of living in one private little home sometimes 30, 40, even 100 miles away from those you work with every day was bizarre to the 19th century citizen. They could have made a compelling argument for why folks would never want to travel an hour each day just to conduct business when they could easily live closer to work. In fact they wouldn't have understood the 20th century distinction between work and home. In the 21st century, young workers have the same problem with my old fuddy duddy distinction between work time and personal time. They expect to text on the clock. The lines of their work and home lives are once again blurry and intertwined. And they have history on their side regardless of how I was raised to think of work as something separate from the rest of your life.

     

    So the point is that each generation that grows up with a technology encompasses it into their lives more completely than the one who saw it introduced. It is easy for us to say it will cause short attention spans and information overload, but history shows the mind is very adaptive to data management paradigms.
    16 Jan 2011, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Good discussion…. Here are some publications that directly reference the issues you are bringing up:

     

    "The Shallows: What the internet is doing to our brains" by Nicholas Carr.

     

    Technopoly, by Neil Postman
    Amusing ourselves to death, by Neil Postman
    Building a bridge to the 18th century, by Neil Postman

     

    The Postman books set the stage for the Carr book…. anything written by Neil Postman is an excellent thought provoking read.
    16 Jan 2011, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    it's not clear yet whether Borders (BGP) will go Chapter 7 or 11. With vendors at the point where they can't continue to extend credit, it looks really bad.
    15 Jan 2011, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): Soslan over at Investors Hub posted an article about Moscow changing out the trolley fleet, about 2K units. It has received, AFAICT, little to no attention and I don't see any revisions to earnings factoring this in, possibly because of lack of (preliminary?) schedules and other unknowns. But BPC, a very large player in Russia and a strong marketer of CPST products in Europe, is involved.

     

    There's some discussion of it.

     

    investorshub.advfn.com...

     

    investorshub.advfn.com...

     

    Whether, when and how this exactly plays out remains to be seen.

     

    If it does become widespread and has a heavy use of CPST products, we could easily see a revision upwards of the analyst estimates.

     

    The news release was recent, although those of us who troll for CPST-related knew of it's possibility in September. So I'll be looking forward to additional widespread awareness and the subsequent results, especially on the short community!

     

    }:->

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. Here's the September stuff.

     

    www.investorvillage.co...
    15 Jan 2011, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Folks

     

    Maybe some one has a direction to go here. If a NYC bank is now allowing you to open an account in the Chinese currency and hope for appreciation in the currency valuation. Is there an investment tool available through a broker to invest in their currency without opening an account.??

     

    Maybe someone has looked into this already, but reading the article you cannot withdraw the currency, you have to convert it back to dollars. Just a thought !!! An ETF maybe??

     

    ACE
    15 Jan 2011, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    CYB is closest to that Ace.
    15 Jan 2011, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    OG

     

    Thanks, from the look of it the return on investment doesn't look that high unless i am reading it wrong. Probably not a good investment idea, But if i am looking at it wrong please , anyone, point it out. Was hoping for a 10% return per year....

     

    ACE
    15 Jan 2011, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    With the Yuan pegged to the U.S. dollar, you shouldn't expect much return *until* they actually let it float free of the dollar.

     

    Then an initial move could be seen. They have been letting it move slowly, but who knows how far they'll let it go and when.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Jan 2011, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Tracking screen has gone bye-bye...

     

    Elfs must be working on the site...
    16 Jan 2011, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    I've found that the tracking is working, just the notification is not.

     

    Click on the clipboard symbol next to "Inbox" at the bottom right of your screen and the notification pops up with (apparently) all the right stuff flagged.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Jan 2011, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    finance.yahoo.com/news...=

     

    The Europeans are considering doubling the size of their own bailout plan for Sovereign's, to $2trillion - and expanding its operation to purchasing Sovereign Wealth bonds to support the PIIGS and cut down their borrowing costs...

     

    I consider this a very likely development, and supportive for the markets and the Euro... And in line with my expectations, given the roaring success of Germany's export-driven concerns (compared to those who are buying the exports, of course, not to exclude us).

     

    I would not be short the Euro right now, or at least, not much.
    16 Jan 2011, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Precious metals will take a hit with a stronger Euro (and less Euro-panic), given the overall soft "time for a pm correction" sentiment, though I believe after the spike pms should catch their breath and show some bounce.

     

    Its about time for Japan's government to step into the currency wars again... Note that major Japanese manufacturers are openly hinting of plant closings and moving manufacturing out of the country due to the strong yen...

     

    China, I am convinced, has continued to follow a strategy of buying yen with dollars, though I believe that we will see a shift in this policy when the Europeans follow through with their $2trillion plan and open market bond support for the PIIGS. China will be focusing much more on regaining control of internal inflation and their bubbles in real estate and finance. I still view this as THE geopolitical risk factor in the world markets right now, particularly if they cannot achieve a soft landing. If things go sour for them, they WILL depreciate the yuan, perhaps abruptly and strongly, since that is their primary tool to generate immediate non-inflationary growth.
    16 Jan 2011, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3362) | Send Message
     
    China sold $1.3 billion of Japanese debt last Nov., saw it somewhere last week. and last I saw, their surplus is now around $2.8 Trillion.

     

    China has been quite open about supporting the Euro.
    16 Jan 2011, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Correct. And the Euro support is something I saw as occurring "in the lunch", and will continue only IF the Europeans do not do what they are currently discussing, ie, double down their bailout funds and use them to purchase PIIGS bonds in the open market.

     

    If the Europeans do NOT do this, China might find themselves forced to continue support for the Euro, though just as with their long standing purchases of US paper, one would expect that process to taper off once they decided the Europeans were abusing the situation (which I believe will occur should the Eurozone fail to increase their own support efforts).

     

    I also believe the Chinese make a practice of hiding many of these purchases behind strawmen, with Hong Kong a very handy barn to store them. This is a very nuanced affair, and we have no way of seeing through the opacity of the Red Chinese government.
    16 Jan 2011, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    An article on silver.

     

    I particularly liked the comments by Thistimeitsfor real.

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    HardToLove
    16 Jan 2011, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5080) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, that's a reasonable take and pretty close to how I think of silver's prospects -- though I think $40 is closer to the stopping point than $50.

     

    At the same time. I also think he discounts the possibility of $100 silver too easily. I am not betting on it, not arguing it is justified, and may not even be in silver at those levels to take advantage of such a price action. BUT... I think bubbles can form anywhere and if we do get a serious run of white metal fever, $100 could easily be achieved -- and become that number that gets ridiculed in the future just like $50 silver was in the 1980's. I would never say with any confidence that we won't see $100 silver in the next 4 years. I don't think we will, but that's different from challenging someone who does.
    16 Jan 2011, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3362) | Send Message
     
    CEF maintains a 50 to 1 ratio on its Silver to Gold holdings, has kept it there for the past 20+ years.

     

    Some believe that the Gold silver ratio should be around 17 because of the $850/$50 highs seen 30 yrs ago.

     

    Silver got up to $50 because of the Hunts attempt to corner the market, had nothing to do with inflation.

     

    So I figure the CEF figure is right and Silver is ahead of itself currently. But, ratios nothwithstanding, the World's investors are woefully short of where they should be inre holdings of either metal.

     

    So I'm still a riproaring "Bull".
    16 Jan 2011, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I believe one reason for the ratio 17 : 1 is that this is approximately the same relative scarcity of the two metals in the earth's crust (some geology sources list it as high as 18 : 1). This lends a scientific basis to the number, but of course has nothing to do with demand.

     

    Historic ratios when both metals constituted the world's currency were about 20:1, which is also a similar ratio.

     

    Having given the matter a lot of thought, I have long felt that the reality (including such variables as industrial demand in the mix) is somewhere in the middle.

     

    Accepting 20:1 as one rough baseline, and 50:1 as a working figure, 35:1 becomes a middle ground.

     

    Current prices yield today's ratio as 47.8 : 1.

     

    I would not be surprised to see $40 silver, particularly should gold resume its upward path as so many pundits have predicted ($1400 would produce $40 silver at a 35:1 ratio).

     

    Of course, all this presupposes that the various powers that have been manipulating gold and silver will stop doing this, and allow something approaching an actual market place to discover prices - which supposition I do not expect to occur.

     

    Ergo, whatever really happens will be something "different".
    16 Jan 2011, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3362) | Send Message
     
    The Breakdown in GLD suggests a move below $130.
    16 Jan 2011, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Golden Goliath Resources (GGTHF) a gold play in Mexico.

     

    Web site: www.goldengoliath.com/

     

    On the right, the first two news releases at the top detail an LOI with (AEM) Mexican subsidiary and recent drilling results returning a nice grade of silver and gold, in varying grades, some so-so, some quite nice.

     

    Their acreage seems to be in area that should yield good results, based on activities and results from surrounding properties.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Jan 2011, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • stockhawk
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    Greetings all. Wanted to add some input about a biotech, ACHN, an antiviral/infectious disease co. with 5 candidates in their pipeline. One is in phase 2 for HIV. the others aren't as far along. The thing about them that keeps my interest is recent price action. In the last month particularly. Don't fully underestand why it's moved so well,up about 25% but did notice it's ownership by Clarus life science and others and 75 million $ raise last year to keep things afloat. Seems to have very little volatility, which I like and was amazed how it flat lined out Friday at 4.95. Had bought at 4.00 in Dec '09 and sold at 5.11 Thur 1/13. Bought back 50% of original size position at the close on Thur. at 5.07. Just throwing this info out as it's been rumored to be a takeover target, has been in partnership with Gilead Sciences and others. Time will tell if I should have stayed out once I sold. Last summer called investor relations and asked why they twice missed their earnings release date. They called back unfazed saying sorry but so and so was on vacation! Anyway, they apparently aren't too worried about fretting shareholders which may be good, can't help my contrarian nature.
    16 Jan 2011, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I've been poking around, and I saw a number of stocks in all sorts of different sectors with large individual sales. One stock I own in my long term, high yield account, (ALSK), had a single sale for over 276,000 shares go at the offer, which was well below the ask at the time...

     

    This is something which was relatively common early last year, but I have not been seeing this so much lately.

     

    More evidence that the big Boyz on the Street are baaaaaaaack.

     

    Watch out, this sort of orchestrated attack gives an entire new meaning to "sector rotation".
    16 Jan 2011, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    With so much going on in electric drives of various types, (UQM) might be a good one to watch.

     

    I've been thinking about it for a while, but it had some issues. Now with a new CEO and production facility in place, some real DD might indicate a worthwhile peek at it.

     

    It was as high as $7 back in December of '09 and has suffered quite a bit since.

     

    IIRC, their motors have been chosen for the Wrightspeed effort, which also use (CPST) equipment. And UQM also has a footprint in quite a few other areas.

     

    Highly speculative and financials have not yet begun to turn the corner. Short interest as of 12/31/10 is ~8.7% of outstanding (down about 25% since the 9/30/10 reporting period), institutional ownership is 41.89%, but Quick Ratio is 11.05 and Current Ratio is 11.49, so no risk from credit issues seems likely, always a plus in my view.

     

    Anyway, I was hoping if any of the more experienced folks wanted to take a peek, I would welcome an opinion. I need to do a lot more DD, as usual, but since it is experiencing some positive price action, I didn't want to delay too long without bringing it up.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Jan 2011, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I've looked these guys over several times, but never thought they were a good bet before. I found this recent interview with the new CEO:

     

    blogs.edmunds.com/gree...

     

    The Coda Sedan he mentions is here:

     

    www.codaautomotive.com/

     

    Once again, this is a company I have been eyeing for quite a while, but felt it was still struggling to get off the ground. The Sedan that they advertise for about $38k (net of all the subsidies us idiots, er, taxpayers are fronting for them via the Federal Guvmint) is one that, like the Tesla, has been lurking for years yet never seeming to reach the marketplace.

     

    Now they claim to be "taking orders", but note the encouragement to "...be the first to own one", NOT bright, so if nothing else they have a moron doing their ad copy.

     

    Some bullet items I noted down about Coda:

     

    They are experiencing production problems (I suspect quality issues with the "gliders", ie, complete cars less drivetrains) being built in China.

     

    Their CEO and Senior VP Sales and Marketing just quit. Co-Chair of the Board has stepped in temporarily while they try to hire replacements. He's an investment banker who used to work for Goldman Sachs.

     

    Their car costs $11k more than the Nissan Leaf, and will trail the Leaf into the market by about 6 months (or more, the way things are going). They are counting on reverse snob appeal since they don't have a national (or even statewide in California) service or dealer network, but of course that also means they are NOT making any "gas guzzlers" like nasty Nissan...

     

    The plan appears to be to sell over the internet only, and therefore there will NOT be any dealer network or service network and none is planned. Since this is illegal in some states (for some reason, the idea of selling cars as though they were washing machines bothers many state legislatures), the odds are high they will not be selling these cars in loads of places (I seriously suspect they will start out selling virtually all their products in California only).

     

    The ICEO was unwilling to tell the interviewer how many cars they have sold via this formula to date other than the illuminating term "many". For some reason, I am equating this to another illuminating phrase, ie, "a few".

     

    Sorry, but this crew STILL looks like a really screwball outfit to me, with loads of problems.

     

    To be fair it looks like the problems are with Coda rather than UQM, but in evaluating UQM's business situation, I'm afraid that Coda's problems ARE their problems.

     

    I'd hold off until more is known about what is happening inside Coda, and over in China where the cars are being pre-assembled.
    16 Jan 2011, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    One more thought about Coda's wacky business model...

     

    It would appear that they have their China strategy backwards. They are making the components in CHINA (where all the REEs on the planet are produced right now) that require zero REEs, while manufacturing the components in the US (where we produce very few REEs right now) which DO require expensive and hard to find REE resources.

     

    Backwards.
    16 Jan 2011, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for taking the time. I had not even considered the Coda issue, but had been focused on the array of different applications they had. The REE issues, that would affect all the various products, was briefly a concern until I figured that the new attention to REE supply issues and higher prices would bring the additional sources online over the next few years.

     

    As you suggest, I'll continue to watch it for now.

     

    Thanks again!

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jan 2011, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    MAYA

     

    When do WE start trash talking,,,,,NY/PITT LOVE IT !!!!!!

     

    ACE
    16 Jan 2011, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Now!

     

    Thanks for letting the fan of a six time champion toss up first serve!

     

    But first, there was indeed bird fallings, in Chicago, in the 'Burgh, but inside a dome...in Atlanta? Yep...there, too.

     

    All birds got flipped today! Now it's time to flip you one, buddy!

     

    Yeah, yeah, yeah, the Jets have already beaten the Steelers in Pittsburgh. But it won't happen again. Here is why:

     

    First, I would way, way much more prefer playing the Jets this coming weekend, than the Ravens again.

     

    Second, and most importantly, I will always take a team that can stop the run as well as ANY TEAM EVER, over a team with a second year QB, forcing the second year QB to perform and throw, especially into a secondary with Troy P., into a secondary lining up behind the best linebacker tandem in pro football, by far. Stats tell that story!

     

    Third: The Jets, and their loud-mouthed coach, had their big win already. Nobody expected the Jets to win. They have already achieved their goal for the season...beating the Patriots in post season, in any post season. Psychological achievement meltdown syndrome will be forthcoming. See Seahawks.

     

    The Steelers only think of the Lombardi Trophy as success. It's the way it's been, and always will be. The Jets are still harping about Joe Namath. How many numbers have the Jets retired?

     

    Jet's color scheme sucks, their coach is classless, and their team name seems to be only successful when some effed up jet lands on some river, in moments of extreme duress. Jets crash!

     

    And in lingo form, the Jets are birds. I fully expect another bird falling next week.

     

    This is the tune going on in Steeler Country: "Knock, knock, knock'n on seven's door." No other team can sing that! NONE!

     

    Did you see that historical Steelers comeback? Breathtaking.

     

    Your serve!
    16 Jan 2011, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    MAYA

     

    HELL, i DIDN'T ASK FOR A BOOK REPORT !!!! however thanks for the compliment as WE do have the best defense against the run. Sanchez has the best receivers to throw to. Your team GAVE US Holmes, so i am sure he would like to show you a thing or two.NO ONE likes Sanchez but he gets the job done. Big throw needed, it gets done.

     

    Speaking of Sanchez he is 4-1 on the road in the playoffs!!!! Just try and come back down 3 td's to my def. Troy scares the hell out of me but we needed a win a few weeks ago and gave you an ass kicking!!! Another win will be no problem because the odds are in your favor yet you are only a 3 POINT FAV. Usually that 3 points is for the home field advantage!!!!!

     

    Big Ben ISN'T ON THE SAME PLAYING FIELD AS PEYTON AND TOM. See what we did to them, outsmart them. Just like the Gades do everyday !!! Just who do we need to shut down in the WR dept. KETCHUP WARD??? Please, we only need to put Revis on him and his day is done.

     

    However beating a good team TWICE in their building is no small FEET....LOL.... Actually i started sucking on my wives last night as a good luck charm. She wasn't impressed, but then again she is still pulling those needles out of her shoulder, elbow, etc...

     

    I got emails from people i haven't heard from in years wanting to put a wager on the game without the points. My mom did not raise a fool, but i think this might be our year... I think Cutler;s boys are going to have a problem with Rodgers as Seattle did not deserve to be in the playoffs. I think the SUPER BOWL IS THIS SUNDAY.

     

    Your up !!!

     

    ACE
    17 Jan 2011, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Or one more thing , NO COAL , NO STEELERS with those wimpy towels that they waive. Now you make jest of my teams name but THE STEALERS !!!! Nope , not gonna steal this one this week. Big Ben will throw two pics, mendy will fumble once, and my bull dogs are gonna rip your offense apart !!!

     

    My coach has a personality, your coach looks like a deer in headlights !!! You got lucky this week, not next week ....
    17 Jan 2011, 12:22 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3362) | Send Message
     
    ok, how do i put back what was taken?

     

    My Feed is sitting where I used to get updates on new comments to articles I'm following.

     

    I like the Author Board idea but, it doesn't have to be Front and Centered.

     

    I'm gonna give the thing on the end a push and see where it leads.
    17 Jan 2011, 05:06 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    The little notebook symbol next to your Inbox is the substitute, for now, for the tracking button, though of course we're not getting any notifications or flags.
    17 Jan 2011, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Football fans,

     

    The repartee is enjoyable, but we know it will get verbose.

     

    I respectfully suggest that one of you start an insta, which I *will* follow to 1) let the QC remain a little closer to it's objective, 2) reduce the number of new QC creation frequency, 3) prevent the *inevitable* heated exchanges that will occur be "fenced off", 4) permit the expletives that must come avoid offending those with different sensibilities, 5) allow complete focus by those interested on the "challenge" and fun without being distracted by investment stuff; after all, there's a time for work and a time for play and I always hate to spoil play with "work".

     

    BTW, numbers 3 and 4 are (partially) in jest.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. being agnostic on these two teams, and seeing the strength of each, I'm keeping my thoughts to myself. The only thing I'll say is I want to see Bears/Packers going at it again. Should be awesome!
    17 Jan 2011, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • QuickChat
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » **** **** **** **** **** ****
    **** **** **** **** **** ****

     

    New QC up shortly. Please stand by.

     

    **** **** **** **** **** ****
    **** **** **** **** **** ****
    17 Jan 2011, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • QuickChat
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » **** **** **** **** **** ****
    **** **** **** **** **** ****

     

    New QC is preparing for departure, please board at the gate on your left. "Baggage" should be left behind.

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...-
    chat-number-139-beginn...

     

    **** **** **** **** **** ****
    **** **** **** **** **** ****
    17 Jan 2011, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I must say I'm ashamed of you, HTL... LOL.

     

    NO baggage allowed? Whats going on, have you gone communist on us? Where are the extra fees for luggage, fees for snacks, fees for drinks, fees for air...

     

    Oops. I hope no airline CEOs are reading this...

     

    OK, OK, I'm getting on the plane... What, the skyway is busted? I hate stairs... Next time, I'm going to just box myself up and ship myself FedEx, cheaper, and the service is better....

     

    Door to door...

     

    (Still muttering, the turtle throws his suitcase on his shell, and slowly climbs the rickety stairway).
    17 Jan 2011, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    LoL! You misinterpreted by meaning of "baggage"? From your comments, sounds like you might have some! >;-O))

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jan 2011, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Multiple entandres, HTL? Multiple opportunities of course!

     

    Yep, I hold a grudge. Airlines give me a shell-rash.
    17 Jan 2011, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Humorous intent jab: So it's not okay to talk about football? When 30% or so of us QCers are passionate about sports? When I listen to a cassette or a cd, and I don't like the song, I fast forward. You are welcome to do the same!

     

    I'm going to continue writing of my passions. What's the dif between all of us writing about the weather, Guns writing about Japan, Joseph writing about Germany, Freya, Vegas, Trip's going on art trips, me, Honduras, our families, our problems, our successes shared humor and failures?

     

    All of which has absolutely nothing to do with the stock market. It's how we get to know each other better, how we develop and grow friendships.

     

    One of the great and unforseen "beauties" of the QC format.

     

    Why don't you start an Insta about Baggage! ;-) In all honesty, it's sharing our baggage, our struggles and overcoming weaknesses that has made QC a huge part of our lives. At least for me it has.

     

    How does *anyone* start an Insta right now! Miss a QC or two, miss that insta.
    17 Jan 2011, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    You misundersood my intent.

     

    I in no way intended to suggest that the chatter was not welcome.

     

    I must have failed to adequately communicate my thoughts.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jan 2011, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5080) | Send Message
     
    HTL, no offense to Maya, but my mother and father are both from Pittsburgh and I can tell you they all live for the chance to get pissed off about something ;)

     

    If it is just a couple sports comments, I agree with Maya. If it spirals into a long thread about why my team's D is gonna shut down your pour excuse for a quarterback so hard you'll have to cry to your Mommy, well, then I agree with HTL.
    17 Jan 2011, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Dang you, DM! You're forcing us football fans into a trading range! At least I can say this: Three of the remaining four teams have Renegade interests. Expect the trading range to be upwardly channeling toward the end of thnis week!

     

    I will conscent to this, that the end of QC 138 be the sole place to do some sports trash talkin' this week.
    17 Jan 2011, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    MAYA

     

    Well my baggage is getting rid of the Stealers this weekend !!!

     

    ACE
    17 Jan 2011, 07:15 PM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.