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  • QuickChat #249, November 20, 2012 326 comments
    Nov 20, 2012 8:30 AM

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  • Love the house!

     

    HardToLove
    20 Nov 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • me too, is that your home TB ?
    Has character galore.
    20 Nov 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • Its the Christ Church on St. Simons Island, Georgia. One of (perhaps "the") oldest graveyards in Georgia. The first settlement of Georgia occurred on St. Simons.

     

    I am working on a series of paintings of the island, and this is one of my reference shots.
    20 Nov 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • I do believe i have a winner here...more good news on NOK

     

    9:52 AM Nokia's (NOK) Here iOS Maps app (previous) hit the App Store this morning, and is already surging up the leaderboard - it's not hard to guess why. After trying out Here, The Verge's Aaron Souppouris calls Nokia's maps "far richer than Apple's," but also criticizes the app's bugs and shortage of public transit data. Meanwhile, AllThingsD's John Paczkowski observes the Lumia 920 has reached Amazon's bestseller list for cell phones with service plans - the white and black models are currently at #12 and #13, behind several Galaxy S III versions. (German 920 sales) (Google Maps) Comment! [Tech]

     

    This is on top of the news that the 920 was sold out in Germany yesterday
    20 Nov 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • "On a marginal basis, our income tax is actually regressive—the poor face marginal tax rates that are much higher than those faced by the rich".

     

    From "How Federal Largesse Traps The Poor" by Califia Beach Pundit.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    20 Nov 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • A salute to free market capitalism, entrepreneurship and great marketing!

     

    http://bit.ly/TWqnlR
    20 Nov 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • K202: All he needs now is a web site to augment his "brick and mortar" presence.

     

    I wish him all the luck in the world - he's obviously adapting in the best spirit of capitalism.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Nov 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • No cease fire between Isreal and Hamas as bombs continue to fly...I have a feeling this is going to get nasty !!
    20 Nov 2012, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • anyone concerned about shadow banking??

     

    http://aol.it/QXQ1Kh
    21 Nov 2012, 04:39 AM Reply Like
  • Insider Behavior Points to Imminent Rally?

     

    Per Mark Hulbert:
    http://on.mktw.net/WxsCAN
    21 Nov 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Mauldin has an 1 hour 15 minute video up on the post-election economy (http://bit.ly/Sdr62e). Thanks to John Peterson on the Axion blog for the tip.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Want to know why NOKIA share price is up? Look at who has been buying it, and the ones forced to sell to them:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    21 Nov 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Short squeeze environment for NOK, imo, and its the sort of situation where even a mediocre report can trigger the sqeeze. A few of these painful episodes may lead the shorts to back off somewhat, so volatility will drop...
    21 Nov 2012, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • I agree TB, I sold half of my NOK today. Will ride the other for a while. I am sure the volume and surge this week was short covering due to the news. They got squeezed pretty hard :)
    21 Nov 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • 1:22 PM Might the TVIX be delisted soon? The leveraged short-term VIX ETN broke the buck morning after losing 97% of its value YTD. Volatility ETNs are essentially designed to hit zero unless subjected to occasional reverse-splits. The TVIX is the only widely held of the VIX products not to get one this fall, suggesting its manager cannot figure out how to track the index properly and wants it to go away. 4 Comments
    21 Nov 2012, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Happy Thanksgiving to all.

     

    On this day several hundred years back my ancestors on my mother's side were busy with a low grade war with several neighboring tribes, plus some raids coming down the Warrior's Path from the North...

     

    Meanwhile in the depths of what is today the border between Poland and Germany, my ancestors were struggling to scrape an existance from a once-prosperous farm devastated by nearly a century of constant warfare which saw their region overrun by voracious armies too numerous to count.

     

    So the original purpose of the day may escape me in a personal way, but the modern purpose, which serves to bind up the wounds of a divided nation through an ancient drawing together of family and community, instills a powerful motive all the same.

     

    So, thank you one and all.

     

    stan
    22 Nov 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Happy Thanksgiving to my favorite community on the internet, may we all meet someday to break bread.
    22 Nov 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Happy Thanksgiving to all, and hope everyone has a great weekend.
    22 Nov 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Ministry of Finance of Japan is asked what will happen to Japanese bonds if the economy collapses... click the link for the answer http://tinyurl.com/bcf...

     

    (hat tip to HK for that one)
    22 Nov 2012, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • Well....he is right. Just wonder what you can buy with that yen. Japan is printing like hell right now. It has been on Japanese tv several times now and they are explaining how it works and how if benefits the country. I notice they never talk about the down side. It fits right in there with the answer above.

     

    "Government bonds will be redeemed because the government is responsible for, please do not worry."

     

    The"Government is responsible" and the "please do not worry" part really worry's me. Govts appear careless to me.... not responsible. LOLZ
    27 Nov 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Aussie & Canadian dollar being upgraded to reserve currencies by the IMF, the early stages of a significant shift in the global reserve currency game http://on.mktw.net/10D...
    22 Nov 2012, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • That's big. Eventually, the USD decline will accelerate I think.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Nov 2012, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • I have mixed feelings about the dollar declining....in fact, I really do not see a significant drop. Especially IF the fiscal cliff winds up with the "Big bargain deal" that may happen.

     

    I would think the larger drops in currency is the Yen & Euro, I really don't see how the euro has held except for CB intervention and propping. If it had dropped as it should have, they probably did not make it.

     

    I have always thought the mother of all trades would be timing "long the USD & Short the Euro" combined with shorting bonds....when interest rises, bonds will tank.
    23 Nov 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • >HTL; Drop with respect to WHAT? Some basket of currencies? Commodity basket? Gold?

     

    I agree it's gotta happen, but the form it will take is confusing. If you can't figure it out then it's hard to bet on!

     

    Thoughts anyone?
    24 Nov 2012, 01:38 AM Reply Like
  • SHB: I have no great and unknown wisdom here.

     

    ISTM that anything denominated in dollars will rise. The USD index (a basket of currencies) will decline as the more sound currencies at least hold their value. As more currencies become "reserve" currencies, some of them will be much more sound and capital will invest in and with them and less with the USD. Reduced demand for the USD will have the normal supply/demand effects,

     

    At some point yields on US bonds and treasuries will begin to rise as "flight to safety" no longer means U.S. dollar, bonds or treasuries.

     

    The commodity "super cycle" may be topping, but if the dollar starts seeking its true value, considering our fiscal irresponsibility and the actions of the Fed, everything not produced "locally" will rise.

     

    It will be a target-rich environment. The precious metals will likely hold up well. But I would lean towards things actually used to feed the world, build things for the world, etc. Things we produce that are not abundant elsewhere and we export seem good.

     

    But I've not really started trying to identify them yet. I may never do so either. Life gets in the way sometimes.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    24 Nov 2012, 05:24 AM Reply Like
  • Based on your comments, HTL, the first thing that comes to mind is anything related to eating. Water, fertilizer, seeds, livestock, food. No matter what the currency or what the tragedy, there will be eating so long as there is life itself.
    27 Nov 2012, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • O.G.: Yes. And we have some other areas that support them, and where export could be strong as well - Caterpillar, Deere, ...

     

    IP exports, if our education system can start producing quality graduates, would be attractive as well. Maybe such as robotics for manufacturing, ... This suggested if foreign strong currencies look at their costs in their currencies vs. ours. We might see a sea change as we might stop exporting such IP and related jobs to India and elsewhere and begin supporting such products and activities here. But it requires a *good* educational system, implying a revamp that gets government out of the way to both reduce cost and raise the quaility.

     

    This will take a lot of time and political backbone, so I'm not hopeful ATM.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    27 Nov 2012, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • On Thursday, Danske upgraded Nokia (NYSE: NOK) from Sell to Buy saying the outlook for 2013 is improving based on demand for Windows 8 phone and stronger-than-expected early results for the Lumia 920.
    The firm said that while reports of sell-outs of the Lumia 920 is likely due to low initial shipments, underlying demand is strong due to the quality of the device. Nokia is able to scale-up production quickly if required, they also note. They raised 2013 WP8 shipment estimates by 57% to 36 million.
    The price target raised raised 107% to EUR2.9.
    For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Nokia click here. For more ratings news on Nokia click here.
    Shares of Nokia closed at $3.31 yesterday, with a 52 week range of $1.63-$5.87.
    News Provided by Acquire Media Corporation
    23 Nov 2012, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • "So far this year, policy rates have been cut four times more often than they have been raised by the 88 central banks followed by Central Bank News. Year-to-date, rates have been reduced 113 times while they have been increased 28 times, demonstrating central banks' concern over growth prospects and the lack of an inflationary threat on a global scale."
    http://bit.ly/10PbLc3

     

    #greatfreeservice
    24 Nov 2012, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • interesting article on crowd funding that is starting to also get very interesting comments with leads on good ways to participate in crowd funding, and comments on the experiences various people have had with doing it http://bit.ly/Tjhh1U
    24 Nov 2012, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • White House report says that if that Congress allows taxes to go up on middle-class families, consumers will spend $200 billion less in 2013.

     

    Allowing middle-class tax rates to rise and failing to patch the Alternative Minimum Tax could cut the growth of real consumer spending by 1.7 percentage points in 2013, the report said.

     

    This sharp rise in middle-class taxes and the resulting decline in consumption could slow the growth of real GDP by 1.4 percentage points, which is consistent with recently published estimates from the Congressional Budget Office. http://tinyurl.com/bwf...

     

    US GDP grew at about 1.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter 2012, according to a Reuters poll of economists. http://tinyurl.com/9xc...

     

    The FED found that since 1947, when two-quarter annualized real GDP growth falls below 2%, recession follows within a year 48% of the time. And when year-over-year real GDP growth falls below 2%, recession follows within a year 70% of the time. http://tinyurl.com/9lo...
    -----

     

    Lets see:
    1.9% - 1.4% = .5%.

     

    .5% << 2%.

     

    Using the FED's rule of thumb: p of recession > 70% ?

     

    No matter what, increased taxes means less money to spend and that has to reduce the GDP. We are already below the 2% critical value.
    26 Nov 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • Yep. Of course, I just reviewed Voldemort's comments in his first press conference after winning re-election...

     

    One of the first questions asked by the fawning media was pertaining to getting rid of the Bush tax cuts. Obama frowned at the reporter (presumably the journalist missed the memo) and firmly stated that a middle class tax increase WOULD result in a recession.

     

    This being the case, we should expect that the only new taxes will fall upon the "wealthy" (LOL defining that universally despised target will be the fun part).

     

    Of course, I wonder what the same analysts who so strongly resist a middle class tax cut would say to a MUCH bigger tax bite for those earning more than $200k per year? How much would that cut growth, consumption spending, etc?

     

    Coming soon: Strong efforts to shift the focus from what the US government is planning (obviously, they have few options and most of them bad) TO what our trade partners are doing...

     

    Trade deficits will become loud headlines, followed by calls to "...do something..."

     

    Since our trade partners are not doing so hot right now and fully intend to dump as much of their exports here as they possibly can to pull their own wagons out of the ditch...

     

    This won't be pretty.
    26 Nov 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • The taxes included in the Obamatax are guaranteed. Thus no matter what happens with the F----Cliff taxes are going up on everyone rich or poor. Of course no mention will be made of this by the WH or anywhere else. Until after it happens!
    26 Nov 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • 3:35 AM An appeal court yesterday allowed Argentina to delay the payment of $1.3B of defaulted debt to bondholders who refused to accept haircuts on the paper, pending a further ruling from the court. A district judge had ordered the country to place the money into an escrow account by Dec 15 if it pays out $3B of restructured debt, as scheduled. The lower court ruling had sparked fears that Argentina could default and prompted Fitch to slash its ratings on the country

     

    This is just getting worse by the hour!!!
    29 Nov 2012, 04:05 AM Reply Like
  • Alarm bells should be going off for investors! If Congress makes the move it seems to be considering it would be very significant and could send US equities into a major bear market!

     

    http://yhoo.it/UMLp7b
    26 Nov 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • I agree with this guy ... at least on the GDP being slow or flat...I thought this would happen even before the crash 4 years ago.
    We could grow, but things are definitely different.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    26 Nov 2012, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Encountering quite a few sys error messages today.. 404s and 502s.
    26 Nov 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • FPA: Ditto.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Nov 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • I suspect the new stock talks protocol. See David Jackson's most recent stock talk for details. I have had two people wish me happy birthday today on my stock talk from that day, which was back on Nov 15. Not sure why they found that stock talk today.
    26 Nov 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Make that three people. Happy birthday. Belatedly.
    27 Nov 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Haven't been in for a while. Was off to PA for a family funeral. My Grandmother 90yrs old passed. She had been in a home for the past 10 years with alzheimers and did not even remember anyone in the family.
    27 Nov 2012, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • Sorry to hear of your loss, DG. I'm still taking off this week but couldn't resist a quick morning visit with my QC friends.
    mj
    27 Nov 2012, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • My condolences to all, DG.
    27 Nov 2012, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • I am so sorry to hear that DG. God bless.
    27 Nov 2012, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • DG: Sorry to hear that. Our hearts and thoughts travel with you and yours.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Nov 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Condolences on loss of your grandmother, DG with congratulations on release of the grandmother and family from the emotional burden of alzheimers.
    27 Nov 2012, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • My sincere sympathies,DG. Here's hoping Alzheimers will be eradicated in our lifetime.
    27 Nov 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • OG, that would go a long way towards solving our ever increasing medical costs in the world.

     

    All, Thanks all for the comments.
    27 Nov 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Sincere condolences DG.
    27 Nov 2012, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • DG

     

    Sorry as well, my dad passed at 75 with same nasty disease..It's not pretty when you have to deal with a loved one in that condition..
    27 Nov 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • My condolences as well DG.
    27 Nov 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks all. Appreciate the sentiment.
    28 Nov 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Haven't been here for a few days, either. My sincere condolences for your loss, DG.
    29 Nov 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks K202.
    30 Nov 2012, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • CME Group declared a force majeure at one of its New York precious metals depositories yesterday, run by bullion dealer and major coin dealer Manfra, Tordella and Brooks (MTB), due to “operational limitations” posed by Hurricane Sandy
    27 Nov 2012, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • Never let a crisis go to waste.....thats what comes to mind. It just fits right in there with MF global. Sorry but I need to get out my copper colander to read the links on this. A coin dealer ya say......hmmmm
    27 Nov 2012, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • Corning up 8% this morning after giving very positive guidance due to demand of the smart glass....I know some follow it here.
    27 Nov 2012, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • From silver doctors on the force majeure. note the other links at bottom of this link.

     

    http://bit.ly/Wtig05

     

    Never mind on the links at the bottom they are a year old. Missed the 2011 not 2012.
    27 Nov 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • 8:30 AM Clean Diesel Technologies (CDTI) +11.1% premarket after receiving EPA verification for its Purifilter EGR emission reduction system, a diesel filter for the removal of particulate matter. Purifilter EGR addresses exhaust gas recirculation equipped heavy duty trucks currently subject to EPA retrofit requirements in the U.S., excluding California. [Energy, On the Move] Comment!
    27 Nov 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Neatly gets around the costly Mercedes solution, too.

     

    Opens the door for small diesels in cars, if the application can be down-sized several orders of magnitude.

     

    80mpg diesels in small cars are being sold in Europe...

     

    Not good news for the EV faithful, however.

     

    Not good news for hybrids, either. If one can buy the same car with a turbodiesel for half the price, and get better mileage with fewer pollutants, the argument evaporates.
    27 Nov 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • "Not good news for hybrids".

     

    Do you discount the incremental gains due to cost or just don't think the gains would be that large? Or folks will think 80 mpg is good enough, why get ... 100+ mpg?

     

    HardToLove
    27 Nov 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • "Not good news for hybrids, either. If one can buy the same car with a turbodiesel for half the price, and get better mileage with fewer pollutants, the argument evaporates."

     

    IN AMERICA!!! The rest of the world is using this technology. Aren't we pathetic dreamers. No wonder we use so much energy per person. 80 mpg would significantly reduce our energy cost and consumption. No wonder we cant solve a simple debt crisis. 16T and climbing.....no solutions in sight.

     

    Sorry for the rant.....copper colander over heating I think.
    27 Nov 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • All that and more, HTL.

     

    First and foremost the market for $20k cars is far bigger than $40k cars for simple and obvious economic reasons.

     

    For most hybrids (which do NOT get anything like 100mpg) the economies extend to the mileage factor as well.

     

    Total cost of ownership is also something which rating agencies (like Consumer Reports) weight heavily in their reviews. Eventually they have to start adding disposal costs for exhausted battery packs...
    27 Nov 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • TB: I posit that if we start with 80 MPG diesel, add regen braking, s/s, ... the 100MPG becomes feasible. More likely with a series hybrid. Cost would be my concern: does scale reduce cost enough to justify going for the extra MPG?

     

    Maybe with some further technical advances thrown in, but sans those it seems iffy, but possible.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Nov 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • As regen braking becomes more widespread and the parts reach economy of scale, their initial cost will drop as a percentage of the vehicle sales price. I estimate we are near the middle of this dropping cost curve now, and something like this could propel us much further along the path. Of course, the 80mpg for standard ICE diesels just means that minor enhancements can lift the cars even further along the mileage curve, so things like minimalist stop/start (even without regen brakes) could result in something close to 100mpg in a very cheap car.

     

    Add in a more ambitious hybrid setup, and you have to start looking for 120mpg+.
    27 Nov 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Deutsche Bank Fulfilled Recent Gold Repatriation Request With Tungsten Salted Gold. If true this is epic.

     

    http://bit.ly/TrYe7K
    27 Nov 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • DG

     

    India got the real stuff!!

     

    Tuesday, November 27, 5:04 AM Demand for gold in India, one of the world's largest markets for the metal, is forecast to rise to 800 metric tons in 2012, well above a prior prediction of 650-750 tons, says Amresh Acharya of the World Gold Council. The increase in the outlook follows a pick-up in purchases during the festive season and comes despite government efforts to restrict gold sales amid concerns about India's current account deficit
    27 Nov 2012, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • They could not be fooled because they break down the gold bars and make jewelry out of it. It would quickly be discovered.
    28 Nov 2012, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • Much of the jewelry is composed of gold "coins" (in most cases, just facsimiles of old fashioned coins stamped very thin and pierced). Much of this production is done in Switzerland and Italy, though increasingly the Indians are shifting this work to their own plants.
    28 Nov 2012, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • More on tungsten bars also in Manhattan.

     

    http://bit.ly/QJ3Qw6
    27 Nov 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • DG

     

    That post has been out a while. I live in NY and people are even scared at coin shows to buy gold..

     

    Just another thought on how much REAL gold id actually out there for us to buy !!
    27 Nov 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • There is lots to buy. No bars at coin shows or coins that are not govt produced coins. Fake govt coins should show up in the lower quality of the stamped coin.

     

    Buy from monex if you still do not trust your sources or anyone like them. I just prefer them because I have been using them for so long and the prices are very competitive. Usually much better. Worried about the confiscation? Sell it for cash at the gun show, last month, at a loss, cuz I was short on cash....to someone in the parking lot.

     

    Yea right says the cop.....so proves it says I.
    27 Nov 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • WSJ article by Chris Cox and Congressman Bill Archer:
    "The actual liabilities of the federal government—including Social Security, Medicare, and federal employees' future retirement benefits—already exceed $86.8 trillion, or 550% of GDP..."
    http://yhoo.it/UUmMW4

     

    I can't even imagine what that number looks like. If you laid that in dollar bills from the Earth into space, what part of the solar system would that reach?
    27 Nov 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • OF course, those types of liabilities (which presumably represent SS for very young citizens, for instance) extend out 50 years or more.
    27 Nov 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • >tripleblack ... The standard time frame they use for this calculation is 75 years out. I've seen this explained before on the TeeVee. Medicare does have some problems when you go out 15 to 20 years because of medical inflation that no one seems to know where or how it happens, but Social Security is funded for the remainder of my generation unless, which seems to be the case, Congress just doesn't want to payback the money they've spent since the Reagan administration.
    27 Nov 2012, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Right, TB, and those numbers are present valued. You are correct to note that this includes youth and babies. What we have is a smaller population after the boomers (less people to support more people). Of course, we need more people to support fewer people and have just the opposite.
    according to the article:
    According to the article... "100% of the payroll taxes for these programs were spent in the same year they were collected."
    If only the general population understood this.
    27 Nov 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Not quite accurate. For instance, SI disability is only funded until 2016. Yup, you read that right. Here it is on the Social Security Website:
    "However, the Disability Insurance (DI) program satisfies neither the long-range test nor the short-range test. DI costs have exceeded non-interest income since 2005, and the Trustees project trust fund exhaustion in 2016, two years earlier than projected last year. The DI program faces the most immediate financing shortfall of any of the separate trust funds; thus lawmakers need to act soon to avoid reduced payments to DI beneficiaries four years from now." That's straight from the horse's mouth!
    http://1.usa.gov/JB1O77
    27 Nov 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • Congress can't pay back the money. That's the point. They shouldn't have borrowed it then, and they shouldn't have been spending it since then.
    27 Nov 2012, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • So true...and that shows just how long true defecit spending has been going on...since what year did the congress get dipping rights?

     

    Now the very group who funded it to it's max (me, the baby boomers) and was used as "part" of their retirement planning now gets it taken away.

     

    Guess what, 401-k's will be taken away next (they already quit matching soon as they got rid of the deferred comp. and IRA taxation will come in some form. What does that leave the working man?
    27 Nov 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • OG: about 8 billion miles. Venus is only 20 million miles away.

     

    So it would reach somewhere out where there are very cold comets and other strange stuff.
    28 Nov 2012, 02:31 AM Reply Like
  • 3:55 AM The SEC has dropped a long-running investigation into whether Wells Fargo (WFC) misled investors in the sale of mortgage bonds. The probe is the second one related to such securities that the SEC has closed without making charges, with the agency dropping an inquiry into Goldman Sachs earlier this year. Still, the SEC did recently win settlements totaling over $400M from JPMorgan and Credit Suisse

     

    Boy, the headlines are flying late in the evening!!
    29 Nov 2012, 04:03 AM Reply Like
  • Were next !....

     

    Couple of quotes i have seen recently that might interest you..

     

    Monday, November 12, 12:28 PM An eye-opener, domestic equity funds had $30B in outflows in October, according to a Goldman report (as reported by Raj Dhaliwal). It's the largest amount of the year, and represents one-third of all of 2011's outflows. Bond funds had their biggest inflows of the year - $44B against an average $32B. (see credit risk "euphoria")

     

    or this one!!!

     

    Wednesday, November 14, 10:29 AM The run of late-day market declines looks so familiar to the action of 5 years ago that Art Cashin dug out a note of his from November 2007. "Like playing poker ... you can bluff and posture ... (but) old traders see the final minutes of trading as truth time ... everything up until then is stage play. That's why the action in the final 30 minutes ... is of concern."
    27 Nov 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Let the fall into the "fiscal cliff abyss" begin
    28 Nov 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • The British oil company BP Plc and its affiliates have been suspended from new contracts with the U.S. government due to the criminal charges in the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said on Wednesday.
    28 Nov 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Herws another beauty!!

     

    3:19 AM The CFTC yesterday unanimously approved a rule that will require top swap dealers, including Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan (JPM), to guarantee certain trades at clearinghouses owned by LCH.Clearnet, CME (CME) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). The CFTC says the new regulation will lower risk and "eliminates the need for market participants to individually determine counterparty credit risk."

     

    To read the CFTC and JP MORGUE in the same sentence scares the dickens out of me!!
    29 Nov 2012, 04:00 AM Reply Like
  • http://bit.ly/Sqefvg

     

    Interesting charts from Dr. Duru...

     

    Yen is being weakened by the BOJ, right on schedule, but will falter soon and drift upward again (also right on schedule).

     

    British Pound looks like it will shed some of its recent gains, again a trend which I think will extend (for those trading currencies, I do NOT do this).

     

    Duru is short both Yen and BP. I disagree with the former, and agree with the later, at this point, assuming a longer term position (day trading shorting the Yen will work until it doesn't, so I would be cautious doing this). IF the plan of the Center-Left British goverment is, as I suspect, to make the UK more attractive for companies fleeing the mainland, a weaker Pound would be part of the strategy. IF the BOJ continues to attempt to tamp down the Yen, and continues to fail, the inflection point with that long standing imbalance might be news of major Japanese firms moving hitech operations to low cost China...

     

    At which point shorting the Yen becomes easy.
    28 Nov 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • TB,

     

    I really like your analysis of the Japanese yen. It has been a curious beast for a long time.
    29 Nov 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • any thoughts?

     

    2:55 PM Gold futures sank $20 at the open and never recovered, hit by a wave of stop-loss orders in a move blamed on a variety of reasons including technical selling, the expiration of options and futures contracts, deflationary concerns and a stronger U.S. dollar. One thing was certain: “There were no fat-finger trades or technical errors... This was a market-driven selloff." [Commodities] 4 Comments
    28 Nov 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • LT

     

    Look at silver, it dropped to 33 bucks and immediately headed back to what i believe is a floor around $34 bucks...My feeling is as long as gold stays above $1700 it will increase.

     

    Stating more money will be printed will just delay a rise as people will flock back to stocks to trade, make a few bucks,imo.....But the physical collectors jumped on that drop in silver quickly!!
    28 Nov 2012, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • A few articles on Bloomberg.com about the improving economy and lower trade deficit , not alot of new info, but interesting stats:
    http://bloom.bg/QOccme

     

    GS also raised S&P estimates to 1500 this morning
    Futures up 72 pts. now.
    29 Nov 2012, 04:45 AM Reply Like
  • LT

     

    So where does this leave commodities?
    29 Nov 2012, 04:57 AM Reply Like
  • they say copper goes up, most are betting with the EZ still in slow mode that there is no play in commodities.

     

    AS to food/Ag commodities, soybeans already down $5, We had a record crop of beans in KY to help offset the corn belt drought. look for more declines into spring planting if weather permits....winter wheat still under drought pressure for now....You can almost short any farm commodity,
    Not sure about miners of metals & ores of any kind. IMO, and that's just a personal opinion, I think gold & silver go way down.

     

    REE's are sorta on the bottom, so a bottom fisher might begin to take stakes like TG mentions on his REE board.
    29 Nov 2012, 05:59 AM Reply Like
  • http://bit.ly/V40j9h

     

    This may add some insight as a suggestion was made a trader was looking to trigger gold lower..It did not work!!
    29 Nov 2012, 06:05 AM Reply Like
  • It worked yesterday, today could be a "dead cat bounce"...

     

    I posted yesterday where one person stated "this is not a fat finger trade" that gold was sold hard.

     

    My point is, what IF, a CB or all of them start dumping Gold ?

     

    As they raise cash this is a risk....not saying it is going to happen.

     

    IMO, the only reason PM's have not crashed is that the TBTF institutions are under too close a watch by everyone and having to close trading desks. If not, they would have shorted them to the hilt. Example=JPM rumored silver shorts.
    29 Nov 2012, 06:13 AM Reply Like
  • Russia sold gold in September.
    Central Banks do not use the futures markets to sell gold. They sell it off market, (through the IMF). There is a link on the top left from the one below that lists the gold sales for November. So, you can actually see what countries are doing, if you trust the public information.
    http://bit.ly/Tw2CTg
    29 Nov 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • http://bit.ly/Tnw5fA

     

    zero hdge put this article out!!

     

    Might shed some light on gold in general....
    29 Nov 2012, 06:15 AM Reply Like
  • While I am giving my opinion for free...here is food for thought and discussion:
    There is alot globally going on right now, some good, some bad in regards to tax increases, etc...below is some things I see in the future to take advantage of and beware of:
    I expect the DJIA could hit 20,000 by the next POTUS election with several caveats listed below, but the average Joe could see his portfolio flat. below is why & some dangers:
    - Many corp's are paying big dividends to beat the tax game. Some are doing this by borrowing money or floating more debt. IMO, this is a very bad business decision. It only helps the very largest shareholders who really own and control the company. Think like Gates family with MSFT, Jobs with Apple, Ford family, Rockefellar family...they get billions, and we get $1000. Then shareholders suffer down the road when the company has less cash to invest in growing the business, more profits are used up in debt servicing.
    This doesn't hurt MSFT & APPL, but it does the average good company as they get hit by a double whammy. More debt-less cash.

     

    - In order to keep the S&P, DJIA going up we will see a constant rebalancing of companies in these indexes. Example=DG added to S&P this year. If you don't adjust, you could lose or stay flat.

     

    - BO is going to get his budget deal and taxes on the 2%....if you think this has been a war, just wait until the next shoe drops. When gov'ts globally crack down on corporate off shore accounts and them paying zero taxes....example = france 75%. CEO's reluctantly are behind the grand deal in Washington now because they have no option and it's better to pay it on their salary than a redo of the tax code and hit corps with 20-25%. If pol's had any balls they would redo the tax code in with this deal and close ALL loopholes...call it protectionism or whatever....but there is no debt reduction until the corps pay something besides Zero.

     

    - Inflation...I don't see much coming....too much money lost 4 years ago, too much labor competition globally, we have already had it in food and energy...maybe that goes flat or actually down a bit (not much tho)
    - China won't fall off the cliff, but won't boom either. Example=APPL & Samsung having to pay up a bit for worker abuse like the sweat shops in the 30's here...so look for some to go to Vietnam and some onshoring back to developed nations. With retirement plans a thing of the past now, decreased labor costs and increased productivity with robotics they can bring a few jobs back to the USA. Developed nations are more competitive now after the crash.

     

    - Wall St. & TBTF banks are losing controll by death of 1000 cuts. Hedge funds and Private Equity are no longer safe. Hedge funds have way underperformed the indexes....I am somewhat befuddled by this other than they gambled politically to hurt the economy and bet against the USA & may pay the price as money is flowing out like crazy. They are all weakened now, but this could be only the beginning. Especially with having to invest or return capital to shareholders, or paying out too much in dividends to beat taxes. Both weakens them further, it will be very hard to get much new money back after their performance the past 5 years.

     

    - IMO, the big corps that have thrived will find it difficult to double again from here short of ALL global CB's printing the $50 trillion that was lost in the crash. Apple may well hit $1 trillion mkt. cap, but can it double again? I think not. And you can apply this to CAT and all the industrials....therefore leading me to the "FLAT scenario" & rebalancing of the indexes.
    Most of all the above was just reasons I think lead to this....and if the global corp tax fix happens, that just adds a bit more fuel to the fire. It may happen now, it may be 5 years, but my bet is it happens and there is nowhere to hide. This could help the USA more than anyone else.
    Corps have had their fun for 20 years now, they may decide that home is the better of not so good of options elsewhere.

     

    - Lastly, I hate ETF's, Mutual funds, Hedge funds, TBTF etc....They are all under performers and will stay that way....IMO, many ETF's will cease to exist..especially ones like TVIX and any that fit the underperformance metrics. It will be slow, but it should happen. Think about who owns these ETF's ?

     

    There will always be stocks that soar like a biotech with a new blockbuster, so there are opportunities, but just as the baby boomer demographics are skewing the numbers we are accustomed to....Corp profits and growth may see the same type thing as the slow employment recovery....it is happening but very very slowly and all the hype about "WHY" is just that.
    29 Nov 2012, 06:54 AM Reply Like
  • LT

     

    Although you make a ton of valid points i disagree.I just see unemployment being the biggest issue for profits in the future.As long as more people are being laid off, not getting jobs coming out of college, then they will not be spending as we did years ago,

     

    i HAVE living proof of a daughter with a college Teaching Degree and at 24 years old almost every large purchase that she might make are put on hold. Reason...College Loans..

     

    Now lets drop down to those Moms AND Dads who are out of work. Will they be splurging in the future? Will they be upgrading their homes as far as moving? Will they buy that new couch?

     

    When i see empty stores in the malls, and i mean dark stores, i just can't buy a Dow close to 20k..The small investor is gone right now. Disillusioned with the manipulation they read about. My daughter might have been engaged by now, but says why? We can't afford to live on one salary and her full time substitute teaching,

     

    So i see the opposite happening when all the money printing stops, and it will. Inflation for food will not stop either. The restaurants in my area are still raising prices. The local Pizza place says his prices have to rise starting soon.

     

    Respectfully, i am on the opposite side of this trade. In fact I see another bubble forming in autos. My daughter brought a brand new Jeep Liberty and was able to get a nice financing deal. WITH NO COSIGNOR...Her boyfriend who owns his own excavating business and barely scraped by a year ago was able to buy a 150k massive truck he needed, with NO COSIGNOR!!

     

    He even made the comment that he was shocked he could walk out without his parents help. Good for me he said, but what about the company. He already knows of 2 other customers who are delinquent on their payments and will most likely lose the vehicle..

     

    Something is going to jump up and bite the rest of us as well...We are no where near getting out of the woods yet..imo..This Fiscal cliff deal, if any, will be a shell of what will be really needed to pay off our debts..It will sound like what we read accross the pond, and i might add China is selling our Treasury Bills as well.

     

    We might be fried for all i know..The POTUS is playing hardball and he doesn't care anymore!!
    29 Nov 2012, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • There is no doubt that Student Loans are the next major debt crisis. Major purchases by all consumers will be slower....but that is not bad. Consumers are managing personal debt better now. Part of this is the aging baby boomers won't buy as much.

     

    However, eventually the young will get hired as people retire. I do think there has been a conspiracy in not hiring the young people that will gradually fade away.

     

    The DJIA....the key is the changing of companies in the indexes.

     

    I agree with everything you said, but the change in demographics is what is the most difficult for most of us to grasp. I keep saying that the metrics we are familiar with in gauging things are not going to be the same....what is the level of unemployed after the baby boomer effect, or sales of anything, things that used to cause inflation such as money printing don't anymore. There is a new norm being established. Anyone who has bet on doom and gloom too much has paid a big price for 4 years....and IMO, they will lose again because they can't comprehend the new norm so will only see the negatives...and miss the positives.
    29 Nov 2012, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • LT

     

    If people stop buying or slow down then fractional financing stops and then the end game of this ponzi scheme explodes..This is pointed out in the link below,

     

    http://bit.ly/LUiFYg

     

    If the author is correct then spending MUST continue for our money supply to work..
    29 Nov 2012, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • Spending has slowed down....and we are at DJIA 13000. It didn't cause the end of the world...and it won't now either.

     

    If we see these things, don't u think the big boyz and powers to be see it as well ? We can't do much, but they can & they are.

     

    The past 4 years has seen an unprecedented crash, that took unprecedented measures to turn around. Things may never be the same, but they don't end either.

     

    Most all CEO's and corp's are behind compromise and they will get it in many fronts...to go along with my post below they will get some positive trade-offs for their support and good citizenship...such as some poor laws & regs will be erased.
    Corps will be out much of the costs associated with the major problems, but they will get concessions to blunt the sting, AND, it will be done over time. Not an immediate rush like we are used to.

     

    Some of it may actually suit many Libertarians here and both parties may get much of what they want....There has been a bad political war the past 4 years...I believe that may be ending and that is a huge step toward the turn around we want. IMO, the people just forced both sides to the middle toward compromise. (I hope & pray for this)
    29 Nov 2012, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • Here is one other key ..... Corporations have a ton of cash. Their balance sheets are really great for most. It has prompted aritcles like "you can look at our cash, but don't touch it".

     

    This has to be done very delicately because corps have had it way easy for 20-30 years....they sorta made a tradeoff...we will overhire, overpay, etc...as long as we don't pay taxes.. but that is gone. There won't be jobs in Investment banking but may be made up in the mortgage service sector...we see where JPM laid off Investment traders...but failed to see the fine print where they opened new offices and hired a ton of people to service lending in Cleveland and other areas as housing rebounded.

     

    My point is...just as it happened with nurses...hospitals repaid student loans over 5 years if a new nurse signed a contract...so corps may help with these issues over say a 5-20 year time frame with some give and take (compromise). They have the money, they probably will comply in time...but it is a slow process with many obstacles to overcome. But they see just what you see, and that is their major incentive which is really how they survive. Without an economy, they fail...they know this...
    We get thru this fiscal cliff thing, and you will see small pieces of the puzzle begin to fall into place.

     

    This won't be all bad as it will stop stupid mergers, and bad stock buybacks ... etc. They will have to return to being good managers and somewhat a good citizen.
    29 Nov 2012, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • Dow 20,000 because the dollar value drops to a relative 40 cents. Not because the dow is worth more.

     

    As I have said in the past look at the value of the chips not how many chips you have. I too keep forgetting that simple fact on occasion.....then I look at the real chips, PM's and get smacked upside the head with reality.
    29 Nov 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • LT

     

    I will reread your comments later today but i gave you a LIKE reply as i haven't thought of what you presented. I hope you are right!!
    29 Nov 2012, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • U.S. third-quarter GDP revised up to 2.7% from 2%.

     

    A 35% revision???
    29 Nov 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • If this helps.

     

    "GDP growth is likely to be revised from 2.0% to 2.6% in the first revision of the third quarter, thanks primarily to upward revisions to inventories and net exports. The last month of the quarter for these two categories are reported after the advance GDP release and are usually the source of significant revisions. Such revisions are rare, however, because big surprises in one are usually offset by equal and opposite surprises in the other, because imports go into inventories and exports come out of them. That was not the case in September, however."
    29 Nov 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • We also had Christmas to include, and can expect at some point for Sandy to offset it...there was an article yesterday about unemployment will be bad due to that...and so will spending until the rebuild/repair comes in.
    29 Nov 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • reminds of the time I did a $73 "penny-correct" adjustment when I worked at a bank... of course that was a one-off deal because I inherited a desk that was previously run by someone who didn't know the difference between a debit and a credit, and I'd spent dozens of overtime hours getting a $40,000+ outage down to $73

     

    what the heck is useful about issuing gov't numbers that are off by 35%... I guess if they were that much off on the low-side, at least they can't be accused of trying to help the current administration get re-elected... or can they?
    29 Nov 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • The basic takeaway is that the data does not indicate that the 2.7 is an indicator of a sustained upward trajectory.

     

    "This morning’s GDP report is one of those rare instances when growth is a lot stronger than in the advance report but the domestic economy turns out to be a lot weaker. Stronger growth but a weaker mix. Inventory building in Q3 was partly intentional as automakers stepped up production after strong sales in the second quarter. But inventory growth was strong enough that it is likely to slow in Q4, so the second biggest contribution to growth in third quarter after consumption is likely to swing to detracting from growth in Q4. As a result, GDP growth is likely to be weak enough in Q4 that the average for the second half is about 2%. "
    29 Nov 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Two US-based Internet-monitoring companies say Syria has shut off the Internet nationwide. ... never happened before.
    29 Nov 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Next comes the cell network.

     

    The powers that be are slow witted, but the dim reality is penetrating...

     

    Their opposition will still get the word, but coordiantion of forces will be more crude.
    29 Nov 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • I'm more interested in if the opposition can override the block and get it up and running again. IIRC, there have been laws passed in a few countries (cough cough) in the past year that allow said countries to take similar actions (cough cough...). Sorry, keep coughing when I go to say the particular country I'm thinking of.
    29 Nov 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • There might be a market in Syria for handheld, text only, WiFi communicators. Batteries included and last a long time ;-)
    Burst transmit, spread spectrum WiFi hubs located in non-obvious places. Store the message and retransmit at random times. Keep the antennas small and the transmit time in the milliseconds and they would be pure hell to locate.

     

    WE might need something similar in the USA in a few more years ;-(
    29 Nov 2012, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Hillbilly, you got my attention. Are there such things and what are they called and who makes them and....link?

     

    Yep got my attention. Beats the hell out of many other options my group has been looking at. Com wire for christ sake is even been discussed.
    30 Nov 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Hillbilly

     

    Just got home and i would order a dozen if you get me that link...

     

    Yup, i am listening as well...
    30 Nov 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Boehner - no progress - market drops - than bounces.
    29 Nov 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • LOL, the MSM has just one thing to make headlines from, and that's the Fiscal Cliff.

     

    The fact that we reach the actual edge in February is not the emphasis, of course. All reports are breathless and bugeyed, and hint at a cliffhanger about 5 seconds from now.

     

    Did anyone REALLY expect a deal this early in the game? Really?

     

    There WILL be some face-saving formula for the losers (ie, the Republicans), probably involving the level of new taxes levied upon the "rich", and in the debate attempting to define who is rich enough to be a target.

     

    Voldemort has already firmly stated the obvious - a middle class income tax increase would trigger a nasty recession...

     

    We just don't know HOW high the taxes will go, or how LOW the incomes will be before they switch from "bullseye" to "middle class".

     

    If the market is going to swoon everytime one of these critters slimes out from under his rock, its going to be a long road to February.
    29 Nov 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Well said TB
    29 Nov 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • My take, for what it's worth, is that the deal proposed by the Administration was unacceptable on purpose. The Prez and the Dems actually want us to go over the fiscal cliff, raising taxes on everybody and creating revenue (by their math) while cutting the defense budget dramatically. Everything they want, no need to cut spending (raise it if they want to like the BO proposal does) and then blame the failure to compromise on the Republicans. The MSM will praise the Administration for having tried to compromise but tell citizens that all deals offered were rejected by the Republicans in an attempt to save the rich. The Republicans were willing to sell out the middle class for the sake of the rich.

     

    Then the US$ will drop in value as the US debt gets downgraded again (while France retains its AAA rating! - unless I missed something there) and once again it will all be blamed on the Republicans in Congress. Those damn Tea Party Conservatives only care about the RICH!

     

    I don't believe any of it. I'm just saying that this is how I expect it all to play out over the media. The Prez and Dems get everything they want and blame everything on the Republicans in Congress. This will be the theme for the next two years as the Dems go all out to regain the House! It is a sad situation the Republicans are in and I don't see any way out if the Dems play their political cards this way. Just watch and make sure you're ready for the fallout that comes with it. It won't be pretty!

     

    Just my opinion. I hope I'm wrong.
    3 Dec 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • K

     

    I think France was downgraded a couple of weeks ago...
    3 Dec 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • K202: I think you are wrong. IMHO, the pressure will be too much for the Congress critters and they will punt the entire "cliff" into mid 2013. Except for a few window dressing changes to make it look like "real action against the deficit".

     

    Then they will return to business as usual until the next deadline. Why change a system that has worked for them for several years?

     

    No budget passed. No serious reductions in spending. Nada.
    3 Dec 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Greetings all: This is just another manufactured crises to be taken advantage of. My guess is that something really big and really ugly will come forth from the negotiations think 1,500 pages or more. No one will read it or comprehend what it will do. It will be loaded with pork, ear marks and special interest spending disguised as infrastructure spending. It will be passed at 11:59 PM on new year's eve. The congress critters will then recess for the holiday while congratulating themeselves on what a swell job they did averting the crises. Hand shakes and back slaps all around and the euphoria in the MSM. Then the unintended consequences will start becoming aparent. Anything good if there is anything good will be credited to the Democrats and all of the bad stuff will be blamed on the Republicans. There will be no spending cuts or debt reduction. In fact they will probably increase the rate of spending growth. There will be tax rate increases, new taxes, fees and regulations aplenty.
    3 Dec 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Robert

     

    I posted the same senerio on another site. I believe right now all were getting is posturing. Then at the last minute a deal will be reached and all will rejoice, having no clue what they are rejoicing about.

     

    Then over the next week we will learn of all the details and basically it will be kicking the can down the road. Unfortunately i believe we are running out of time. So i am back to picking up my nickles in front of even mack trucks!!

     

    Were screwed, just like over the pond. A false sense of security will fade away, The markets will react negatively, and then all hell will break loose.imo
    3 Dec 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • IT: Greetings. Indeed we've been snatching nickles from in front of steam rollers for the last four years and it looks like four more years of the same. Now it will get even dicier. The unions are emboldened with firm control of the NLRB. http://bit.ly/SsDRGs You may have seen the unions bussing in protestors to picket retailers that started black Friday on Thanks giving. These retailers weren't union shops and traditionally the NLRB has denied unions permits to picket non- union shops. This time around the unions didn't request permits and the NLRB put off a ruling until next year. http://yhoo.it/XiXZzn That means that they won't issue a ruling at all. Seems that the word LABOR in NLRB means something very different now than it did just four years ago. Was that a midget with a ladder I just saw?
    3 Dec 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • I can't even imagine how our citizens would react with a real austerity budget..The markets would tank, we would have unrest in the streets. People will be very angry....

     

    Not sure if you saw that story of a Police officer buying a homeless man on the street new socks and boots. It went viral, and was on all the NY news channels. Now they found the guy shoeless again, and he said he hid them because they were expensive but also wanted his "piece of the pie" as his picture was shown without his consent!!

     

    This is what were dealing with now ?? Boy am i glad i have my protection when the S@IT hits the fan..
    3 Dec 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • You are both making the same arguments I made a few months ago. I agree that kicking the can is a very plausible outcome. But, I know think that BO has so much on the table that he really wants (and facing no more re-elections): defense cuts, increased taxes on everybody if he just lets us go over the cliff that he must be considering the option. I'm not sure that caving by the congress critters will be enough to satisfy him at this point. After Defense is cut and taxes are raised, all he needs is to wrest the power to raise the spending limit away from Congress and he is home free to spend as he wants, budget or no budget. Notice, of course, that BO has requested that the Administration be given the right to adjust the spending limits in his latest proposal. He wants it all. Hey! He may even want a 3rd term if the climate is right. Hopefully that rumor is hogwash!
    3 Dec 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • K

     

    Honestly maybe going over the cliff is actually better for us in the long run. Then maybe they will work out a real compromise.
    3 Dec 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • We go over the clift now or a bigger clift later. Lets ride!!!

     

    Remember "Courage is being scared to death but saddleing up anyway" John Wayne
    3 Dec 2012, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Remember "Being John Wayne is staying in Hollywood when everyone else saddles up"
    3 Dec 2012, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • I am in this same camp....if they can't agree to something good, then let's go over the cliff.

     

    I don't think there is any way that they let us go over it other than to prevent a vote on ending the Bush tax cuts. Then soon after Jan.2 they do a deal....how good is yet to be seen.

     

    Defense cuts...BO is only going with what the DOD has proposed on their own. It was mentioned earlier that the repubs are backed in a corner and stand to lose either way....IMO, IF they would come willingly and reasonable...they could actually get most of what they want and come out a winner. But this Norquist crap has to go.
    3 Dec 2012, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • Well, now ya'll are going to change my mind again. If our politicians can't produce good legislation (a given) then it would be better for them to let us go over the cliff. I agree with that completely. But then our leaders would actually be doing something right! I have to go a long way back in my memories to find an example of that happening.

     

    Thus, I have a hard time believing that today's political leaders are capable of doing something that will turn out well. Which brings me to the conclusion that they will somehow botch the fix portion. The opportunity will be there for them to do things right, but my confidence in their collective ability to bring us out of the mess in much better shape is near zero.

     

    The opportunity will be staring them in the face and they won't see it clearly. The opportunity, of course, is to reform the tax system. They may get close on some other opportunities, but a good overhaul in the tax code is just not in the cards. Congress would lose too much power if they did it right. Alas, we'll just get more bailing wire and glue, imho.
    4 Dec 2012, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • You are absolutely correct, K202.

     

    Betting that the current inhabitants in Washington would place the good of the nation before their own personal and collective power would be very foolish.

     

    My personal yardstick involves the FairTax, of course.
    4 Dec 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • I like the Fair Tax as well. It does not tax the poor, rewards saving and capital formation, taxes those who have more and spend more, collects a larger percentage of taxes owed than the current system, and it is vastly more simple. The only downfall is that it takes power away from politicians and that will continue to be its downfall. Until we get term limits, career politicians will dig in their heels against any radical change, even for the good of the nation.
    5 Dec 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • I love these last two posts above. Especially "term limits". You guys ever read Warren Buffetts 5 minute fix for the economy and politicians?
    If not PM me and I will find it an email it to you...it's great.
    5 Dec 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • I have read Buffett's 5 minute fix. But I've been calling for term limits for at least 3 years. I hadn't noticed Buffett's fix until a few months ago. He is intelligent, for sure. But I don't think giving him credit for an idea that has been around since before I started supporting it makes him smarter. It just means he, like many of the rest of us, recognized good ideas provided by others. None of his ideas are new. That is not to say that I don't agree.
    5 Dec 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • GERMANY MAY JOIN THE REST OF US !!

     

    Friday, December 7, 3:09 AM The Bundesbank warns that Germany may be entering recession, saying that the economy could contract in FQ4 and FQ1. The bank cuts it 2012 and 2013 GDP predictions to +0.7% and +0.4% respectively from prior forecasts of 1% and 1.6%. However, the bank expects growth to recover to 1.9% in 2014. It also lifts its 2013 unemployment forecast to 7.2% vs 6.8% this year.
    7 Dec 2012, 06:26 AM Reply Like
  • To get e-mails whenever authors you follow publish an article on SA:
    - go to "edit profile" on any part of your Seeking Alpha profile
    - among the left tabs, click on "e-mail alerts"
    - 2nd from the bottom of options is Author Alerts, put in a check mark

     

    This e-mail will come once per day for all authors followed (i.e. a list of all articles by all authors followed in one e-mail).
    29 Nov 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Is there any way for SA to show I list of articles that I have selected for tracking?
    30 Nov 2012, 02:36 AM Reply Like
  • Not that I know of jhooper.

     

    I used to use the "recommend" function to keep a collection of articles I wanted to track and go back to. Then, they deleted the function and I lost the whole list. LOL.
    30 Nov 2012, 07:06 AM Reply Like
  • Bookmark them in their own folder using your browser?
    30 Nov 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • Drought threatens to close Mississippi to barges
    If water levels fall too low, the nation's main inland waterway could become impassable to barges just as the harvest heads to market. Shipping companies are scrambling to find alternative ways to move tons of corn, wheat and other crops to the Gulf Coast for shipment overseas. http://tinyurl.com/bqk...
    ---
    It's a lot more than tons... Alternatives - rail. Which RRs could benefit here?

     

    Low water on the Mississippi means that Canadian National Railway Co., (CNR) based in Montreal, is “currently handling more business as a result of the situation while remaining focused on protecting its existing rail traffic base,” said company spokesman Mark Hallman.

     

    Kansas City Southern (KSU) is “working with our customers to ensure that we are in a position to meet any increase in rail demand due to the reduction in river capacity,” said Bill Galligan, vice president for investor relations of the Kansas City, Missouri-based company.
    30 Nov 2012, 06:46 AM Reply Like
  • Loads of coal cars available, but they are not the right kind of rolling stock...

     

    I suspect a capacity constraint will present quickly for the RRs, and I wonder how much they will risk (buying capital intensive gear is a long term play against a short term demand, rarely a wise decision)...
    30 Nov 2012, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • Could cause food prices to increase...
    30 Nov 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • Or decrease here. We will have a glut.
    30 Nov 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Right. What is unclear is how much storage capacity is available. At one time we had mega storage for grains near the producing regions, but in the age of just in time everything, what happens when the plans fail?
    30 Nov 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • McDonalds is making some moves!!

     

    http://aol.it/VkM6bP
    30 Nov 2012, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Midwest drought and flooding on the West Coast. It was just the opposite a few years ago. Again, this is just more fodder to support my idea of a nationwide water pipeline system for redistribution and storage. Water is becoming the new "oil" of the future. It already costs more than oil when we buy a bottle of water. So maybe the time has come for stabilizing the economy with a national water transportation system. Again, just my opinion.
    3 Dec 2012, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Just think there will be regulations soon on how many calories can be sold to a person at one sitting in fast food franchises. http://bit.ly/VgKdYe Another way for your nanny government to shut down businesses they don't like. Soy burger anyone?
    3 Dec 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • I'll take 1200 calories for here and 1200 to go please.
    3 Dec 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • FOCAL

     

    This might interest your oil play!!

     

    6:35 PM The ingredients are in place for a massive oil price collapse - massive production, low breakeven costs, low financing costs, tight capacity - BAML says, seeing the possibility of $50 oil within the next 24 months. But with North American production costs relatively high and Saudi Arabia capable of decimating U.S. producers if it stepped up production enough, FT's Ed Crooks sees little chance of a dent in prices.

     

    Do you believe it anyone??
    3 Dec 2012, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • DG - I think you are a bit over optimistic in thinking you'll be allowed 1200 calories for anything. The daily allotment is more likely to come in under 2500 calories. If women make the decision, it could be under 2000. There will be exceptions, of course. The higher your income the fewer calories you will be allowed; they don't need your votes.
    4 Dec 2012, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • Producers in the US need higher prices to be profitable; so do oil sands producers. If the price were to drop to $50 and stay there, it would take a bunch of projects off the table, imho. That would cause demand to outstrip supply and drive prices back up. The Saudis may want to close down some production efforts in order to maintain higher prices long term. Who knows what they will do?
    4 Dec 2012, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • K202,
    I have a son-inlaw in the oil business, he says the Saudi oil wells are getting old and if shut down or capped may not be able to produce any more. From what I get of what he says, it is a use it or lose it production problem based on the recovery systems that are used in older oil fields.
    4 Dec 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • I've read assessments of Saudi reserves that claim the recent (last 5 years) increases in estimates are fictitious. The Saudis still have a lot of oil, but the amount that is recoverable is debatable. The other debatable point is how much the Saudis could actually increase production. We shall see in time.
    5 Dec 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • I am cynical about reserve/resource estimates myself, but we should not imagine that the recent American miracle (new technology overcomes determined government stupidity to create new and larger supplies of fossil fuel energy) cannot be replicated in places like Saudi Arabia as well...

     

    Utilizing the new tech, would we see a major increase in the potential from the Saudi oil region?

     

    If anything, oil industry history has demonstrated that the speed with which innovation moves through the planetary oil chain just gets faster and faster.

     

    It smacks of ex post machina fantasy, I agree, particularly the timing, but it really is what it is - a chance to extend the projected lifespans of the planet's primary oil and gas producing regions well into the 22nd century, if not beyond.
    5 Dec 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • "Loads of coal cars available, but they are not the right kind of rolling stock..."

     

    Wonder about timely conversion potential of those coal cars which appear in long-term over supply.
    30 Nov 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Unload is the problem.
    30 Nov 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Never mind. They have developed rotary car dumpers now to off load all gondola cars.
    30 Nov 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Paper dollar bill to be replaced by a $1 coin? That's what congress is looking at.

     

    http://on-msn.com/QSmmlK
    30 Nov 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Maya,

     

    I just returned from three weeks motorcycling in Australia. They have already done this. The smallest paper bill is $5, and $1 and $2 coins have replaced bills. The smallest coin in actual circulation is their nickel. Even though prices at the register may reflect penny differences, they round purchases from pennies to nickels when making change. I never saw the penny or 2-cent coin during the time I was there.

     

    http://bit.ly/TwXyPE

     

    They are already dealing with price increases and costs we have yet to see, and I was astonished at the cost of living there, in terms of fuel and food and housing. A part of this may reflect the very high minimum wage standards they have, which raises labor costs relative to ours. It is roughly double ours: http://bit.ly/TqZllL
    30 Nov 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin: That sounds like a fantastic trip!

     

    Soon, I'll be heading down to Honduras, for my 12/21/12 Ending Of The World Fiesta I'm throwing, where they still use paper currency for what represents about 1/19th of a dollar, although it's more like plastic paper to the touch. They have tiny, wafer-thin coins down there that I don't even know what they are worth.

     

    For this kind of trip I have a gigantic paper clip, because when you go to the bank to change out $300US into lempiras, you get about 5700 back in currency, and as you spend, those 1 lempira and 2 lempira notes grow into something no wallet was meant to hold.

     

    One night, while sleeping, I was awakened by this metallic-meets-tile noise, as my paper clip flew right off the wad, collided into a wall, and then skittered back along the tile floor.

     

    Typically, the last night of my many trips down there, I gather up a heap of 1,2,5 and 10 lempira notes, and toss them into the tip jar at Twisted Tanya's.

     

    May have to do something with how much labor makes. Last I knew, Honduran workers were around $15/day.
    30 Nov 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Matrin

     

    Got this old man jealous. Anyway they do have dollar coins already in the coin version. It has the dead presidents on them and looks goldish.

     

    Coin shop sells them for 2 bucks, but i do get them occasionally as change from stores. People do use them as dollars...Value is a dollar..

     

    History seems to be repeating but this has been discussed for years already !!
    30 Nov 2012, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Think how much they could save by switching to 5, 10, and 20 dollar coins as well... ;)
    30 Nov 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Or if we just went back to gold and silver coins. Oops must have overslept, I seem to be dreaming.
    30 Nov 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Invest in man-purses now!
    30 Nov 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • It's important to preserve the intrinsic valueless aspect of our currency. That way, "our" government is free to make random adjustments to the currency valuation.
    30 Nov 2012, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Rattie, I forgot about that....ummm.....uuhh , never mind the children might here me.
    30 Nov 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Get the one that has a hidden compartment for a pistol.

     

    http://bit.ly/Rovfn8
    30 Nov 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • FPA

     

    Can you imagine walking around with 10 bucks in coins, just what my fat butt needs is more weight to carry around. They tried this already with the Susan Anthony coin and people thought it was a quarter..

     

    So i might have to be somewhere in size like a Morgan dollar... Or maybe just letting us know we won't have a need for a dollar because inflation will make bubble gum worth 5 bucks anyway!!
    30 Nov 2012, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Here is a must read for stocks to buy on the Sandy effect: It could be huge
    http://bit.ly/Tx048z
    30 Nov 2012, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • I got some Owens Corning already sold it though. Used proceeds on AT IIRC.
    30 Nov 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • LT

     

    Interesting article~~
    1 Dec 2012, 04:16 AM Reply Like
  • I highly recommend you check out Harris Kupperman's new free weekly newsletter, the Leather Apron Club. In it, he compiles the best stuff he's read and seen from the past week, from articles, financial snippets, and charts. It is free. Check it out.

     

    This week's edition: http://bit.ly/UycbBY

     

    The first edition (last week):
    http://bit.ly/WAtGz9
    1 Dec 2012, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • thanks for the link Jon, this is an idea I should have thought of. I read many many articles every day. To repost them, and eventually get paid for screening would be nice.

     

    If you know this guy, the website needs a little tweaking as it is jumpy scrolling down for me on an iMac.
    1 Dec 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • Hi LT,

     

    Harris manages a hedge fund, Praetorian Capital Managment (technically based in Miami) and is also CEO of Mongolia Growth Group.

     

    When he was 18 in 1999, he was winning an investing contest (a very funny read) http://bit.ly/VkUjcs

     

    He started his hedge fund while he was at college in Tulane.

     

    The hedge fund had issues in 2008 as he was significantly invested in small & micro-cap names, and each investor that pulled out tanked the holdings of what everyone else (including him) owned. But, he managed; yet, at the same time decided he would do something different to avoid being in that situation again (and then there was a publicly traded company in Mongolia...)

     

    I've met him and got to know him well through travels to Mongolia, etc. Very bright, good guy, well connected. Occasionally too smart for his own good (though I wouldn't mind being smart enough to say that about myself... (which I'm not)).

     

    For both his hedge fund and future investment ideas, he travels to a lot of emerging and frontier markets which he blogs about on the home site: http://bit.ly/YmrFNz

     

    I'll try to see why /how it looks jumpy on my Mac when we get home tonight, and will let him know.
    2 Dec 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • thanks for the reply Jon...I will read the links
    2 Dec 2012, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • I know this is political but i felt important enough to post it here!!

     

    http://huff.to/TBPZ6v
    1 Dec 2012, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • Two ways of reporting the same news:

     

    1) Euro-zone final PMI at eight-month high in November.

     

    2) Manufacturing activity across the 17-nation euro zone contracted for a sixteenth consecutive month in November. The index rose from 45.4 in October to 46.2 in November marking the slowest pace of contraction in eight months.

     

    Meanwhile, in Shangri-La, EU finance ministers are arguing about increasing the EU budget by 6 percent for 2014-2020. Nigel Farage is correct, Herman Van Rompuy and the rest of his EU sycophants are out of touch with reality.
    3 Dec 2012, 05:24 AM Reply Like
  • Here is a trick I have not seen before...

     

    Triangle Petroleum changes its state of incorporation from Nevada to Delaware (TPLM).

     

    In connection with the Reincorporation, the number of authorized shares of common stock was increased from 70 M shares under the Nevada corporation`s Articles of Incorporation, as amended, to 140 M shares of common stock under the Delaware corporation`s Certificate of Incorporation.

     

    Dilution by merger into shell company...
    3 Dec 2012, 07:46 AM Reply Like
  • I think SeaDrill (SDRL) just dont something similar. It is all offshore owned by a holding company with no assets except it's subsidiaries.
    ARticle is on SA about "This 9.5% dividend with a strong parent"

     

    Maybe it's catching on....is it related to a big dividend payout?
    3 Dec 2012, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • Fascinating maneuver FPA! Is there a site which was tracking this -- or did you come across it accidentally? I am sure others will at least evaluate the tradeoffs of this dilution option.
    3 Dec 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • I read about it this morning on Yahoo's "In Play" site : http://tinyurl.com/y5676b.
    3 Dec 2012, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Welcome back MJ...missed u
    3 Dec 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks, LT, the QC helped me keep a distant finger on the market pulse. I am in awe over the continuing mega drops suffered by some high yielders e.g. posted my sale of Poseidon Concepts 10/24 @$15.22 -- today its going for $4! The market fears are so thick -- and not likely to thin out any time soon. Keeping lots of dry powder until I see reason to plow heavily back in.
    3 Dec 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Monday, December 3, 10:13 AM More on the ISM report: The 49.5 read is a big miss, the 4th contraction in 6 months, and the lowest print since July 2009. It was led by big drops in New Orders and Employment, but also Inventories, which declined 5 points to 45. Customers' Inventories dove 6.5 points to 42.5, suggesting purchasing managers feel they've gotten far too lean. Stocks give up a chunk of their early gains, the S&P 500 +0.2%

     

    Not a good sign...
    3 Dec 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting piece by Devon Shire on Iraq's importance to global oil production/stability http://seekingalpha.co...
    3 Dec 2012, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • good overview of some negative trends for the big (and small) mining companies by Bob Johnson http://bit.ly/11rEgOi
    3 Dec 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Read an article in TIME magazine and the PIMCO experts expect a ton of problems in the future and have told clients the days of 6% profit is over. Get use to 2%..

     

    They were also leaning towards a bigger position in cash as well..We will be paying for all these games going on for 30 years they stated.

     

    Interesting article..
    3 Dec 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • I am curious what others make of this:

     

    http://bit.ly/TFbOmd

     

    "The Coming Silver Price Eruption"

     

    Predicting massive short squeeze in silver.
    3 Dec 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • I am sure they stand ready to inflict margin call after margin call to protect the big banks. Now hopefully no one is margined and if this happens they all take delivery and that should put a stake in their heart and an end to the manipulations......but I personally worry we will get beat like a red headed step child a few more times before this charade ends.

     

    So let the beatings begin, cuz once they are over....its over.
    3 Dec 2012, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin: Greetings. We have seen that TPTB will not let silver go too far. They have manipulated the market with margin calls. While they are running out of room for those shenanigans they haven't reached the end of their ammo just yet IMHO. They may still be able to do thing another time or two. That being said it would improve my position if it really does happen. Thanks for the link. Interesting stuff.
    3 Dec 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Ok Rebublican made a counter offer. I missed the details...Markets really didn't react so it is still posturing!!
    3 Dec 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • IT: Greetings. Not many details to see. http://bit.ly/UbLzSK These negotiations should be done on C-Span so we could all see for ourselves what's going on.
    3 Dec 2012, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • So much for a more transparent government, eh?
    3 Dec 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Do you guys remember the story on how at the end of the great depression that J.P. Morgan invited the powers to be to his house, locked them in his study and sat outside with his gun and told them if anyone tried to leave before a "workable" deal was done he would shoot them?

     

    This posturing is a poor show.
    3 Dec 2012, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • You think the fiscal cliff battle has been big, wait until they go after corp taxes:

     

    2:45 AM The biggest U.S. firms generate only around a third of their revenue abroad, but a large number keep their ever growing cash mountains overseas and away from the IRS. It means that the likes of Emerson Electric (EMR), which has around $2B of cash in Europe and Asia, have to resort to borrowing to pay dividends or buy back shares. [U.S. Economy] Comment!
    4 Dec 2012, 05:44 AM Reply Like
  • You gotta read this:

     

    Financial journalists rank just below bankers :
    http://on.mktw.net/11M...
    4 Dec 2012, 06:17 AM Reply Like
  • It is a different standard.

     

    I've gotten some fingers pointed at me that I have behaved unethically and I have to laugh.
    4 Dec 2012, 07:11 AM Reply Like
  • Yes, but there is truth in it too, I am convinced that many are on payrolls that are not associated with true research. Many articles are written to advance agenda's not particularly in the best interest of investors and or to force political bias.
    4 Dec 2012, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • It is actually all journalists the article is referring to, not just financial journalists. If it were just financial journalists all lumped together as a category I'd have a big problem with it. There is a huge Chasm of difference between the sell side analyst/journalist and the buy side group (or independents). The buy side group generally believes what they report while the sell side has an agenda that comes before reality.
    4 Dec 2012, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • K202, I agree its all journalists. Just watch TV or read a newspaper. ALL of them are biased. There is no professionalism in journalists for the most part any more. I realize there are some exceptions.
    4 Dec 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • I read somewhere about a guy who posed as an "expert" in multiple areas for interviews. He wrote a book about how easy it is to convince the networks and news "journalists" that he was an expert when, if fact he knew only what he could find using Google searches just prior to the interviews. He was quoted over and over again as an expert in areas he knew almost nothing about. He mentioned that he found a site where journalists post requests for responses from experts. The journalists accept anybody who responds. So much for journalistic integrity!
    5 Dec 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • No question about that LT.

     

    I'm just bemused I've been accused of ethical violations when I've spent more on travel expenses than I've made writing about the travels.

     

    However, if more page views don't start happening for my article about Sri Lanka, it may be a moot point for me. It is my worst performing article, ever, by a wide margin. http://bit.ly/VgJkPl
    4 Dec 2012, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • You are ahead of the curve on it Jon. Many retail investors (your primary audience here) are still trying to wrap their minds around what is going with the major economies and trying to avert their own fiscal meltdown which is making it difficult for them to move their attention from the primary market train wreck. By the time investors get their wits about them and domestic fiscal issues are not front and center anymore they will have to start playing catch-up with what you are writing about today.

     

    In your articles you bring both the frontier investments together with the global macro-economies but it takes time for feeble minded investors like myself to make the leap and figure out their play. I am still reading you and still learning. Keep up the great work, more and more people will catch on sooner or later.
    4 Dec 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • You are selling yourself short and are quite sharp.

     

    The way things work in society now, producing something of quality that doesn't get enough eyeballs is unsustainable. That's why news reporting has drifted into entertainment, and why print media - including financial journalism - drifts towards the popular and sensational.

     

    When I have an article that's getting less than 20% of the page views of my least viewed article previously, I have to question the sustainability while greatly appreciating that SA helped me publish it.
    4 Dec 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Jon: There may be a seasonal factor involved as well as the cringing withdrawal of the invetor from the market, evidenced by the big-time outflows from various fund types, over the (recent?) period.

     

    This may just be a case of lower general participation spilling over into the (even riskier) EM areas.

     

    Current yields on bonds and treasuries may be a support of this thought, but no way to know.

     

    Just avoid starvation for the duration it takes for the rebound (years?) and you'll probably see improved metrics.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Dec 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah Jon,
    What he said. The content, quality and depth of your reports are important and I should think there would be a small but vigorous market looking for the kind of financial intelligence that you produce. Such as the Kiplinger Letter for something that pays well and would reach forward thinking people. Jon you aren't just writing articles, but are providing an on the ground financial intelligence briefing. Think bigger on the personal business side.
    4 Dec 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • And the music just keeps on playing ...

     

    90% of new Treasury bonds are now being purchased by the Fed!! http://bloom.bg/WGG00S

     

    Zero Hedge puts this into perspective: " it now takes $85 billion in monthly Flow injection from the Fed just to keep the market from collapsing." http://bit.ly/SuCerY
    4 Dec 2012, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • Yes.

     

    I was disturbed recently that Mongolia raised US $1.5 billion which included 10 year US$ notes paying 5.125%. IIRC they were rated BB before the auction.

     

    The risk people are taking on to generate mild amounts of income is insane. I had AAA US Treasuries paying that rate a decade ago.

     

    In Mongolia, with local currency risk, a 1 year CD pays out 13%.

     

    Congrats to Greenspan/Bernanke for generating a generation of treacherous bond markets globally.
    4 Dec 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy

     

    To me it's just a matter of time before we collapse, no longer if!!!!!
    4 Dec 2012, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy & Jon: I was just reading about the bond market and its potential collapse over on EcoIntersect:

     

    http://bit.ly/11NFu5E

     

    Seems the spreads are tightening, and bond purchasers are getting forced to run higher risks to gain the same return with junk bonds.

     

    I myself have had six bonds this year called in early (just last week I had a Nextel bond called three years early). If that many have happened to me, I can only wonder how many other folks living on fixed income have had their bonds --their income -- disappear due to corporations knowing interest rates will be far lower than their bond yields for what may be many years going forward.
    4 Dec 2012, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • I too have had many bonds and preferred called, if they yield over 6% they are on their way out.

     

    We have had to go to some hopefully secure dividend paying stocks.
    4 Dec 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • They are locking in cheap money. Get it while it's hot.
    4 Dec 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Peter Schiff video: Debt Ceiling and the Fiscal Cliff (about 16 minutes long):
    http://bit.ly/11NXbSH
    4 Dec 2012, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • OG

     

    AN article from Peter Schiff that should be read

     

    http://on.wsj.com/UiId0r
    7 Dec 2012, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • The public low opinion of congress did not matter. But this does matter and is driving both sides to the table. When pols call up corps for big donations and help and they say NO, then they will run to do a deal,
    It is both sides too, I never thought they would put entitlements on the table, but they have. They need to quit posturing, both sides have a deal already in place....just do it before one balks.

     

    7:54 PM The deadline for reaching a deal on the fiscal cliff was months ago, says Allstate (ALL) CEO Thomas Wilson. It's frustrating because both sides have agreed on the "three buckets" to prevent the automatic spending cuts and tax increase that go into effect at the end of the year — revenues, entitlements and spending reductions - but neither side can agree on how much to put in each bucket. 4 Comments
    4 Dec 2012, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • LT: Greetings. Just which entitlements were put on the table. King, Voldemort told the Republicans to give him everything he wants because he won the election. They could talk about spending cuts later with no specifics. Anything short of that and it's over the fiscal cliff and you Republicans will get the blame.
    6 Dec 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • It's been on most all reports of progress that "everything" is on the table and that raising the Medicare age to 67 is being considered.

     

    IMO, we are gonna get the grand bargain before Christmas.
    6 Dec 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • LT: Greetings. I haven't seen a single report that included any specific cuts at all. http://bit.ly/TVzna1 In fact Boehner is purging House committees of conservatives in order to strike some grand gargain. You can bet it won't be much of a bargain for those with fiscally conservative veiws. We are letting the same people that gave us this fiscal cliff deal have another whack at us.
    6 Dec 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • ahhh Robert, he is just punishing the "obstructionists" for getting him in this mess :) :) :) LOL

     

    got to find you some new news stations when I get time too :)
    6 Dec 2012, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Robert, in addition to raising the Medicare age to 67, other specific items I've seen were mentioned by McConnell a few days ago. Those "cuts" were more means testing and higher medicare premiums for the wealthy and redefinition of the price index applied to social security and several other price indexed entitlement programs. The price index change was included in the "grand bargain" that fell apart last Summer.
    6 Dec 2012, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv: Greetings. I was speaking about cuts being put on the table by the Democrats. What cuts are they proposing if any? Until the Democrats come up with something more than tax the rich there is no negotiating going on at all. Unless of course the Republicans continue to negotiate with themeselves and purge their ranks of any dissent. Sounds like a great plan if you're a Democrat.
    6 Dec 2012, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Robert, all I've seen from Democrats is demand for higher taxes on the rich, demand for abolition of a debt ceiling, and demand for more stimulus spending.
    6 Dec 2012, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • The dems have laid their plans out, and they will get it. Question and next play is what the repubs get in return....which is some entitlement cuts.
    6 Dec 2012, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • Here Robert....watch something besides CNN & FOX

     

    http://bloom.bg/UhQWzN
    6 Dec 2012, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • "The dems have laid their plans out, and they will get it."

     

    Perhaps, and perhaps not.
    6 Dec 2012, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • Guys

     

    I would just like to repeat what was said to me, with all due respect.

     

    Why isn't this conversation on the political chat?

     

    Thanks..
    7 Dec 2012, 03:40 AM Reply Like
  • http://bit.ly/TJrN5K

     

    Robert do not worrry. Next election we will work in Ohio to take care of Mr. Boner. Process is getting underway now.
    7 Dec 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Double, Guns: Greetings. I wish you all success in that venture. Have a great trip and safe return from the end of the world!
    10 Dec 2012, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Anyone notice gold sold off today? I wonder if some European bank had to sell their gold to pay for their bills??

     

    No news that i read should have caused this....
    4 Dec 2012, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • Tuesday, December 4, 4:15 PM Market recap: Stocks finished slightly lower in trading confined to a narrow range, and that's the way things could continue for a while, as "the bears don't feel comfortable and the bulls don't feel comfortable, and people don't have a reason to be involved" amid the lingering fiscal cliff fight and macroeconomic concerns. Gold slumped below $1,700/oz., blamed on technical pressure following short-selling in Asia.

     

    I am not sure i buy this ??
    4 Dec 2012, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • Gold has been in a downtrend, however slowly but still down. I think it's just now beginning. We had several converstations on this back in the summer. As usual, we were 6 months early.

     

    I am not shorting Gold, but wonder when silver gets hit big?

     

    Whenever it does, buy JPM.
    4 Dec 2012, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • Suggest adding lead and copper to your PM's if you have any. Expect that the gold sell off is end of year profit taking prior to cap gains tax increases and Decembers are historically bad.

     

    Simply go to kitco look at the yearly charts and you will see that 2006, 2009, 2011 all had down decembers and now 2012 looks like the same is happening....but its not over yet.

     

    You will also notice that gold was higher year end than beginning in everyone of those years and appears to be on track to do the same. Bull market still intact. JMHO
    5 Dec 2012, 06:56 AM Reply Like
  • You might want to load up on shovels too.

     

    http://bit.ly/SFQnUg
    5 Dec 2012, 07:16 AM Reply Like
  • LT

     

    Where are you seeing gold and silver being dragged down...Gold is still hovering around $1700 and silver over $33 bucks..

     

    To me this is no downturn, maybe people grabbing profits early this year, which sets up for a perfect buying opportunity...

     

    We are a long way off from solving our problems, if they can be solved...Personally i think were passed the tipping point.

     

    Congress will shove some crap down our throats and hope to kick the can again.imo

     

    Todays figures are ugly, and don't seem to get better at all...
    7 Dec 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • I have dealt with commodities as long as anyone here, sometimes in a rather big way for an individual.
    Trust me, they can & will do things that are unimaginable. There is no doubt in my mind that many will get taken to the cleaners when the big boyz get the stars in alignment.
    IMO, the only reason they havn't already is fear of the regulator looking over thier shoulder.
    The CBOT will do it to farm commodities next year if we have a good planting season.
    4 Dec 2012, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • LT

     

    I expected gold and silver get dragged down with the market, maybe its just leading the markets down. Then i fully expect an uprising of both gold and silver as our dollar will be dead!
    4 Dec 2012, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • The drop in gold came in Asia when both NY and London markets were closed, on thin trading.

     

    Gold short term perspective w/Jim Wycoff at Kitco (5 min video):
    http://bit.ly/RAWAm6

     

    Gold long term outlook from the fantastic Arden Sisters:
    http://bit.ly/VB3p4W
    5 Dec 2012, 03:41 AM Reply Like
  • OG here is something from Dennis Gartman on the volume of gold coins being sold this November ( a fantastically high number)

     

    http://bit.ly/SFLf2I
    5 Dec 2012, 06:31 AM Reply Like
  • Sorry for length...but this smells of manipulation!!!

     

    Gold fell $18.50 or 1.08% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,696.70/oz. Silver slid to as low as $32.66 and finished with a loss of 1.88%.
    Gold futures selling after midnight in New York, when European and American traders are away and Tokyo's gold trading is quiet after lunch, drove prices down $10/oz in only one minute. More than 3,000 gold-futures contracts changed hands at 12:47 a.m. New York time, and the market's quick slide triggered an automatic, 20-second trading halt in February gold futures, said the operator of the Comex.
    According to Dow Jones, preliminary exchange data showed that trading volume from 12 until 1am was over 6 times the average of the last month.
    Gold has recovered from the fall yesterday and overnight and is tentatively above $1,700/oz.
    There was no fundamental driver of the price falls yesterday or today. It may have been momentum traders selling as the short term trend is now down. Yesterday stop losses were breached at $1,710 & $1,700 which led to further falls.
    Support is now at the early November lows of $1,673/oz – seen just before Obama’s election.
    The stalemate between the US Congress and the White House has some players waiting on the sidelines.
    5 Dec 2012, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • HERES more on golds drop ...

     

    http://bit.ly/TGroBa
    5 Dec 2012, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • just, WOW!

     

    It looks like about 100 or so trades in 150 milliseconds pounded the price down $10.

     

    http://bit.ly/SJ3Qee

     

    The Financial Terminator strikes with both electronic barrels blazing on full automatic!
    6 Dec 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • On gold, something else to consider is that its time to take some winners (profits) off the table and get the lower cap gain taxes since it appears we are going off the cliff at least for some time. Then buy back in cheaper.
    5 Dec 2012, 06:36 AM Reply Like
  • There is a short video on CNBC about gold support levels & charts. The mention the fiscal cliff, but don't elaborate on it.
    IMO, if we go over the cliff or reach a grand bargain, the dollar goes up, PM's go down.
    5 Dec 2012, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • On gold price overall. We are essentially at the previous debt ceiling limits. The republicrats and demicians still want to spend like hell so they will raise the debt ceiling with some level of grandstanding again and then they will raise the limit and Benny will print those dollars to run the debt up to the next limit. Gold is going up as a result. Short term I have no idea because of that manipulation, speculation, grandstanding, panic, etc.....that all figure in but manipulation is the biggest factor.

     

    For me direction of gold is not in question, just how far.

     

    If they get rid of the sequestration deal from the last debt ceiling I expect our credit rating to take a hit because we just took out the controls to raising the debt ceiling and proved that even if we make a deal we might renege on that deal.

     

    We have gone from "privatizing profits and socializing losses" now to "piling private-sector losses on the public sector" with freddie, fannie and solar/battery companies. Everything is going from bad to worse to horrible to desperate to....just short of armageddon next I worry. Just look at the ME area. Any more chaos over there and we might not fall short of armageddon. Hang on to your gold. JMHO
    5 Dec 2012, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • :-) Well, after all, we are only 16 days away from the end of time.
    5 Dec 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • LT

     

    Just the opposite will happen in the long term..imo...My coin dealer was at a show right after BO was elected and said people were 10 deep to get inside!! Was one of his best days...

     

    These people know what will be the long term effect from this. Who cares short term..PHYSICAL isn't for short term..
    7 Dec 2012, 06:21 AM Reply Like
  • It might be time to buy gold miners.

     

    http://bloom.bg/VCldwr-R7~5lvcURTqj_pWXL3j5t...
    5 Dec 2012, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • oops. Broken link.

     

    http://bloom.bg/VCldwr-R7~5lvcURTqj_pWXL3j5t...
    5 Dec 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • nope bad link. It did it again. See if this works.

     

    http://tinyurl.com/c57...
    5 Dec 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Wednesday, December 5, 8:59 AM Gold gets a downgrade at Goldman Sachs, the firm lowering its 2013 end-of-year price forecast to $1,800/oz., and 2014 to $1,750. "We see growing downside risks ... the gold outlook is caught between the opposing forces of more Fed easing and a gradual increase in U.S. real rates on better U.S. economic growth."

     

    We shall see, won't we....
    5 Dec 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • This line sums it up....A Detroit Councilwoman said this at a meeting.

     

    We voted for you ( Obama ) so come bail us out !

     

    Yup, heard this one on Fox Business with video as proof...My jaw dropped...
    5 Dec 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • (CLNE) Speaking at last week’s American Trucking Associations Summit on Natural Gas in Trucking, Andrew Littlefair, Clean Energy President and CEO, said, “We have created America’s Natural Gas Highway® to support the growing number of long-haul truckers and shippers who are deploying factory-built, heavy-duty trucks powered by natural gas fuel.

     

    By the end of 2012, Clean Energy will have completed 70 new LNG truck fuel stations along highways that link major U.S. metropolitan areas. Many of these stations are located at existing Pilot-Flying J truck stops. Pilot is the nation's largest truck-stop operator with more than 550 retail properties in 47 states.

     

    In 2013,CLNE plans to build 70 to 80 additional LNG fuel stations adjacent to long-haul trucking routes and around major warehouse distribution centers in North America. Major highway segments now completed include, among others, those linking the Southwest Corridor, Los Angeles to Atlanta, The Texas Triangle, Atlanta to Chicago to Texas, and major corridors in the Midwest and Northeast. http://tinyurl.com/a8w...
    5 Dec 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • The McConnell Provision:
    I suppose we are going to be hearing a lot about the McConnell Provision with respect to increasing the national debt, so I posted what it's all about in Jakurtz"s Polticial QuickChat 4
    http://tinyurl.com/b2q...
    5 Dec 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Many of you know that over the years I've had wide ranging difficulties with Verizon. Now I'm really angry. Verizon has patented a new DVR with a camera and a microphone, so that they can both see and hear what you are doing in the room with this #^$#6#$!!! spy machine:

     

    http://on-msn.com/UG1j5b

     

    Since (my) bonds and preferreds are getting called early, I'm beginning to look at hospital REITS -- the buildings surrounding hospitals. One name, when I get back from Honduras, which I will be looking into is CommonWealth REIT (CWH), which is about 50% US Gov buildings, and 30% Hospital buildings. The common is yielding about 6.6%. Very safe. Although the PE ratio is very high.

     

    Also, check out Chart Industries...lots of potential growth with this one.

     

    CYA guys tomorrow...from another part of our tiny world.
    5 Dec 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like