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  • Line forms behind me.
    9 Mar 2011, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • This makes it sound as if someone knows there will be not QE3. I wonder if this type of action will cause QE3.

     

    www.zerohedge.com/arti...
    9 Mar 2011, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • I just saw that... here is the quote that was quite disturbing..

     

    Bill Gross is now convinced there will be no QE3 at all, at least based on his just putting his money where his monthly pen is! And if Bill Gross, the most connected person to the upcoming actions by the Fed, believes there is no more quantitative easing, it is really time to get the hell out of dodge in all security classes - bonds, and most certainly, equities.

     

    Time to set trailing stops?
    9 Mar 2011, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • But go where? If easy money easing stops then bonds should theoretically be the safe play if the economy crashes. For now I still think inflationary concerns will favor stocks and commodities still. There is still way too much monetary laxness under Bernanke.

     

    Eventually he will have to jack up the interest rates to stop inflation. However, he will undoubtedly be late. He is having too much fun playing god of money and handing it out to banks he likes (the big ones).
    9 Mar 2011, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Bill "Goodwill Hunting" Gross?

     

    The stimulus runs out, Congress stops deficit expansion, the States start massive Gov. yob layoffs,/

     

    No QE3? Gimme a break
    9 Mar 2011, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Freya, I think if they end it there will be what I would call an "OH $HIT" QE3 in just a short period of time after everything started to collapse. Its a gut feeling/political issue. Being in cash would avoid the drop and be a great opportunity to get in after the plunge. Or you can just enjoy the roller coster ride of panic and hoped for recovery.

     

    Im thinking stops in place but as this gets talked about it could be a hell of a whip saw effect and everyone could be kicked out. I think the PMs will get whip sawed too. No QE and PMs drop possibly but we still have chaos in the MENA to possibly hold them up.

     

    It appears to be a crap shoot. Feeling lucky?
    9 Mar 2011, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Where does it end?
    9 Mar 2011, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • OG I do not know. Carl Icahn has closed his hedge fund also because he does not want to be responsible in another down turn.

     

    Excerpt from his letter to investors about closing the fund is below.

     

    "While we are not forecasting renewed market dislocation, this possibility cannot be dismissed. Given the rapid market run-up over the past 2 years and our ongoing concerns about the economic outlook, and recent political tensions in the Middle East, I do not wish to be responsible to limited partners through another possible market crisis. After careful consideration of all relevant factors, we have determined to return all fee paying capital to investors."

     

    Big names leaving the playing field should be something to be very concerned about.
    9 Mar 2011, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Icahn needed to free up capital for projects, is my guess, so there are multiple reasons he did that.

     

    He also saw what happened last time when outflows from hedgies went ape, which must have cost him serious cash. He also knows by now just how vulnerable hedgies (even big, sophisticated sharks like him) are to the Boyz.

     

    I doubt Icahn will ever re-enter the hedge field.
    9 Mar 2011, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • This is a little long and is a letter that is supposed to be from Wynter Benton. Wynter claims to be the spokesperson for a group of pissed off ex-JPM employees who know how to game the system in their favor.

     

    "WB: JPM is in worse shape then we ever dared to hope 20-Nov-10 07:06 am
    Blythe,

     

    This is what I am now hearing from traders on the floor. These traders are not even sure if Blythe knows the full extent of JPM's silver exposure.

     

    When I first started to realize that JPM has shorted far more silver than they could ever hope to cover, my first question was "why would they do that?" Not only that, why do it with a commodity where you must report your positions through the COT and Bank Participation Report? After all,the whole world can see what you are doing. [my added comment: Ted Butler included!]

     

    Now I know the answer. According to Max Keiser and now a couple of other independent sources, it seems the reasons why first Bear Stearns and now JPM are so desperate to manipulate the price of silver down is due to the fact that BS and JPM shorted billions (yes billions not millions) in ounces of silver through their derivatives.

     

    Just like Joe Conason at AIG, silver shorting through derivatives have caused literally billions in losses not the millions that we know about publicly. That is why JPM has been so desperate to manipulate the price of silver downward so blatantly. If I am right about this, then JPM will be dead when silver hits $60 or so. Based upon the COT and BPR, if silver hits $60, JPM will lose around an additional $6 billion dollars, a large number but not nearly large enough to bring down mighty JPM.

     

    But what is not known is that due to the way that its derivatives are written, JPM's losses are exponentional once silver breaks $36 or so. Rumors has it that JPM could be losing as much as $40 billion once silver is above $50. It has something to do with how the derivatives are written with payment tied to the price of silver.

     

    Since JPM was a price manipulator with respectt to the price of silver, JPM assumed that any derivative payments tied to silver would be less than they would be tied to some other index like the CPI or TIPS implied inflation index. JPM's inability to hold down the price of silver relative to other measures of inflation will cause unbelievable losses due to a mismatch in their derivative structures.

     

    In essence,JPM has bet (a huge amount)through derivatives that silver will never outperform inflation. And why not,since JPM assumed that it will always be able to manipulate the price of silver. We have now come to understand that JPM's loss exposure to silver is much greater than we have ever dared to hope.

     

    WB: In an effort to clear up some recent confusion regarding my latest posting, I will try to explain what I have recently uncovered.

     

    JPM's current short silver position is estimated to be approximately 150 million ounces down from the recent 180 million ounces in August. The losses from these positions are easy to figure out. For every $10 rise in the price of silver, JPM will lose $1.5 billion. But what I have recently discovered is that through its derivative positions, JPM will lose about 5 times that amount ounce the price of silver is above $36. And ounce silver is above $45 dollars, JPM's losses will increase to 8 times the amount of losses in their short positions. The reason is that as the price of silver increases, certain provisions get activated which multiplies the losses.

     

    One reader asks the question why isnt the price of JPM going down to reflect the lossesd in silver. My answer is that the price of silver is not high enough to begin to trigger losses in their derivative positions. But once silver approaches this critical level say around $36, then you should begin to see the price of JPM stock begin to reflect these losses.

     

    In fact, traders are saying that once the price of silver surpasses the stock price of JPM, then for every dollar the price of silver go up, JPM should lose around 70 cents or so. This means that if silver hits $60, JPM will be a single digit stock.

     

    JPM market cap is around $170 billion. If silver losses are as great as $40 billion in cash , then JPM will be insolvent. Period.

     

    From your former traders (whom you dismissed so callously)"
    9 Mar 2011, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • This all sounds great to me. I've been in silver for 14 months and counting with great success. If what you say above is true, we can all get rich shorting JPM. Couldn't happen to nicer company. They tried to manipulate the price of silver, got caught and are now in deep sh--. Gotta love it.
    14 Mar 2011, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • I'd like to see Jaimie Diamond sit in a jail cell for all the damage that company has done to people all over the world by operating illegally.
    9 Mar 2011, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • I have been preaching that for a long time. Some how I think his political connections will save him until the politicians are changed. Think GOOOH. Then there may be a perp walk of many bankers, politicians etc....
    9 Mar 2011, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • I know I am overloading yall today on silver stuff but I just found this stuff and it all kinda goes together. One thing led to the other and so one. I am just posting the really good stuff.

     

    There are two links in the article at this link here. The second one about china not honoring dirivatives is an eye opener.

     

    www.infiniteunknown.ne.../
    9 Mar 2011, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Hold on Hold on... I clicked the link and the Chrome browser came up with this.....

     

    infiniteunknown.net contains content from infiniteunknown.net, a site known to distribute malware.

     

    Your computer might catch a virus if you visit this site.
    Google has found malicious software may be installed onto your computer if you proceed.

     

    If you've visited this site in the past or you trust this site, it's possible that it has just recently been compromised by a hacker. You should not proceed, and perhaps try again tomorrow or go somewhere else.
    9 Mar 2011, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • To save everyone the problem with going to that site I have posted the story below. I was there earlier so if I got some malware its just on me. Sorry folks I got no warning but I trust Users comment above so be careful.

     

    The recent theory put forward by Ted Butler has the Silver conspiracy world all abuzz. Ted concludes that it is CHINA and not JP Morgan behind the huge silver short position on the COMEX. Here’s the article:

     

    www.investmentrarities...

     

    “JP Morgan must have some reason to justify the big concentrated COMEX silver short position. If they claim that they are long silver OTC swap positions as an offset to their COMEX short position, it becomes critical that the CFTC inquire who is holding the short side of the OTC silver swaps. My belief is that it will be Chinese interests on the short side of the swap.”

     

    Butler goes on to discuss reasons why he comes to this conclusion which are very understandable and, in my opinion, likely. Due to a strategy the Chinese developed over the past 10 years almost ALL PHYSICAL SILVER mined in the world passes through China to be refined. Very little silver is processed anywhere else in the world because most other refineries have gone out of business. In hindsight, it is easy to see why other refiners closed their doors…because China forced them to! The way they achieved the cornering of the global silver refining business was by offering silver miners BETTER PRICES and UP FRONT PAYMENTS for their silver ore. Naturally, silver miners around the world started accepting the Chinese bids for the ore shifting almost all silver refining to China.

     

    But that brings us to a much bigger issue when it comes to the ultimate moonshot for silver and the vulnerability of JP Morgan’s concentrated silver short position. By definition, all COMEX contracts in both futures and options are merely paper derivatives of silver. Regardless of the Chinese involvement in selling paper silver derivatives, JP Morgan is ultimately on the hook for filling these commitments for physical silver if delivery is requested. If they have a contractual agreement with certain Chinese interests who have placed those derivative bets through the JPM trading arm, those “agreements” are only as good as the counter parties ability to perform.

     

    Ted Butler points out in his article that here are two recent examples of “rogue Chinese traders” losing control of commodity trades so for JP Morgan to allow such out-sized silver positions to flow through their trading book seems like a very large misjudgment on the risk of a 3rd party default. Then again, given that Blythe Masters is pulling all the strings of their commodity book, JP Morgan has probably loaded up on a mountain of Credit Default Swaps and other risk mitigating derivatives bought from the likes of AIG and MBIA to try and cover their silver exposure! Does that really feel like prudent risk management to you?!

     

    If you dig further there’s an even BIGGER reason for JP Morgan to fear the “non-performance” by their Chinese paper silver counter party. In August of 2009 China stated publicly that they “reserve the right” to default on any derivative contracts.

     

    “China’s SOE regulator, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), had told the financial institutions that SOEs reserved the right to default on contracts”

     

    in.reuters.com/article...

     

    As mentioned above, the COMEX silver short positions are, in fact, derivative contracts that are supposedly backed by other derivative contracts held by the Chinese. The performance on these Chinese derivatives is at the whim of the Chinese Government as to whether or not they will be enforced. Given that the Chinese were the largest purchasers of those fraudulent Mortgaged Backed Security derivatives you can be sure there is no love for the creators of paper derivatives and China will act in their own best interest. Unfortunately for JP Morgan, buyers of COMEX silver short positions do not have the luxury of legally defaulting on their derivative obligations like the Chinese players do.

     

    So who will be left holding worthless pieces of paper and who will be left holding the REAL THING…REAL SILVER IN THEIR POCKET?

     

    My guess… when the “SILVER ROCKET” finally takes off with the price of silver shooting skyward CHINA will be holding the most physical silver and JP Morgan will be holding the most toxic silver paper!

     

    For those of you new to the silver manipulation story you might want to take the Silver Manipulation Quiz to see how much you really know about the best investment opportunity in the HISTORY OF MANKIND!

     

    www.roadtoroota.com/pu...

     

    In the END there will be massive defaults in the silver market. Blame will be tossed around like a hot potato between the Chinese, JP Morgan, the CME and the CFTC. Of course the ultimate losers will be those who bought paper silver expecting one day to turn it into the real thing….999 silver bars and coins in your pocket.

     

    The silver ROCKET SHIP is ready for departure and the door is closing….make sure you are on the Right side of that door WHEN THE ENGINES FIRE!

     

    May the Road you choose be the Right Road.
    9 Mar 2011, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Butler is Conspiracy Theory All the way, has been for years.

     

    I don't trust him since he wrote an article a few years back that Conan proved was totally bogus. He took a Headline from a News story and ran with it. Didn't bother to read the story which was the total opposite of the Headline.

     

    Meanwhile, I know of another Author who joined his org. and quit.

     

    IMO,Butler can be included in the same camp as "Figures Don't lie But ......" Conan waded through the stats backing his proof. Over and over, same results, figures taken out of context.

     

    Don't get me wrong, I believe in the Conspiracy theory and I believe there is proof somewhere out there BUT I aqlso believe you aren't going to find it in Public Print.
    10 Mar 2011, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • DG: Did you get my link to the CNBC video I posted in the prior insta?

     

    HardToLove
    9 Mar 2011, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • No I will go back and get it. Thank-you. I have been missing a lot over the past 2 days with my search for silver news and business at work.
    9 Mar 2011, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Bill Gross ( Pimco Total Return) dumped US Treasuries!!!!!!!!!!!!... He's not just talking about it anymore.
    finance.yahoo.com/news...;
    9 Mar 2011, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Bill Gross Recommended NLY as a Buy in Baron's RoundTable a few weeks ago.

     

    Guess what NLY uses?
    10 Mar 2011, 01:09 AM Reply Like
  • In poker, we call that a "tell."

     

    What's crazy is that Gross is following my plan; or ahead of my plan, to sell off and buy stuff with high yields next month.
    9 Mar 2011, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Add that to Carl Icahn and that is two tells.
    9 Mar 2011, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Maya, who could pimco possibly sell to?
    9 Mar 2011, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe they sold them to a lot of retirement accounts and pension funds. Dumb money that just dumps into the market at a predetermined allotment each month from 401K, retirement accounts and pension funds. Some people have thier money going into xpercent bonds, xpercent stock etc.....
    9 Mar 2011, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Great question!

     

    I spoke with my broker this morning asking, "Who is going to be buying bonds when QE 2 is through in June?"

     

    He had no answer. I'm not sure who DOES have that answer!

     

    He also expects a pull back is coming akin to what we experienced last summer. I should have written in the above comment that I have already begun selling in my BA.

     

    Did you see the Gross video Rocks provided yesterday in the HO thread?
    9 Mar 2011, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • POMO?

     

    www.newyorkfed.org/mar...

     

    HardToLove
    9 Mar 2011, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the tip, I'm going over there now.
    9 Mar 2011, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Isn't POMO supposed to cap at $600b? Not that they have to stick with that though...

     

    Plus, if we're going to be running $100b+ deficits every month, POMO might not be able to keep up.

     

    It's gonna get dicey in a few months.
    9 Mar 2011, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • I don't think that POMO will make up for/if China and Japan stop buying T-coupons and bonds.
    9 Mar 2011, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • FOLKS

     

    My friend pointed out a Stock symbol (CIM) that has a 18% quartely dividend. Does anyone know anything about this company. To me the chart shows the last three years the the stock is pretty stable.

     

    Any thoughts about this investment??

     

    ACE
    9 Mar 2011, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Looks like they're doing well, but I am still nervous about REITs.
    9 Mar 2011, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • CME report for 3/8/11

     

    Missed yesterdays and it was obviously a big day. 3/7/11 silver was DOWN 889,035 oz Thats almost a million oz's.

     

    for 3/8/11

     

    Silver UP 499,993 ozs (where did they get all that silver)
    102,255,604 oz start
    102,755,597 oz finish

     

    Gold DOWN 64,324 oz
    11,141,259 oz start
    11,076,935 oz finish

     

    I have not been tracking this very long so the numbers appear big but that may be the normal swing of things. We will find out over time.
    9 Mar 2011, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Strange charts for silver over the last 3 days. Almost identical movement just a little out of sync but at 4:00 all three came to the same point each day at $36.10. I guess that is where the battle lines have been formed and the story about $36 dollars might be true.

     

    What say yee!

     

    www.kitco.com/charts/l...
    9 Mar 2011, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Silver finds resistance every time it approaches the next level of ten. It has moved so quickly through the thirties that a pullback or at least a stall was inevitable. Same thing happened at $17/oz and $28/oz. In both cases the prices bounced up and down a buck or so for a while and then surged ahead, broke into the next level of ten and gained momentum. I was thinking July or August we might see $40/oz but it has moved much faster than expected. Now it stalls, but then again with so much fear worldwide increased dramatically by the quake in Japan, one has to wonder if people will keep running to the safe haven of PMs. Whereas I thought it would be a stretch to see $40 an ounce by fall and $45 by 2012, conditions now have me thinking $50/oz by year's end is well within reach. I still think PMs see a setback in the summer/fall of 2012 as we approach election day but in the meantime the potential seems almost endless.

     

    No one wants to see turmoil overseas, not to mention turmoil and distress in several places at one time, but the reality is, such turmoil favors PM price increases. Add to that, JPM can't do a thing about silver prices since they were caught with their hand in the proverbial cookie jar and silver is poised to keep increasing in price. Silver has been a 'too good to be true" story for a year and a half and this wonderful ride must come to an end at some point. I truly believe we have another 12-18 months to enjoy this ride before it ends. Once we get close to election time and new promising (and full of promises) candidates, I believe there will be a new confidence which will ultimately have an effect on PMs. PMs, and silver specifically have become a safe haven for investors but if and when the nation gets that "warm and fuzzy" felling about a new leader and a better future, that is when I see PMs doing an about face and that's when I watch carefully ready to sell. in the meantime, we still have plenty of climbing time to enjoy with PMs and silver in particular. How high can we go???? It is really true.... this time its for real !
    14 Mar 2011, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • Food storage cans are getting hard to come by folks. Sorry to tell you all but if your still sitting on the side lines you might want to get moving.

     

    www.nitro-pak.com/prod...

     

    ***CURRENT INVENTORY UPDATE AS OF 03/09/11*** All Mountain House & Nitro-Pak food storage #10 cans are in EXTREMELY HIGH DEMAND due to national & world current economic uncertainty and inflation fears. With this increase in demand, our food order processing times have greatly increased also. As Mountain House’s leading distributor, we are receiving HUGE shipments WEEKLY to fill our customer orders, but demand exceeds the available supply. Most Mountain House dealers have been been cut off & receive no food, period. Supplies are VERY SCARCE. Like Disneyland, the line is long but still slowly moving. Please be patient. This is a line you do not want to get out of!
    9 Mar 2011, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • I've been using 5 gallon buckets for my storage. I pack the food in, put a dessicant packet in(they're billed as a way to keep your sports locker dry, but they come in individual packets so one should work great in a bucket), and then drop in some dry ice to displace the oxygen. I then put the lid on and wrap the top with plastic wrap to keep the air out.

     

    I haven't bought any pre-packed meals stuff so far, but I imagine those will be WAY more tasty than plain ol' rice and beans. We'll have to find our own meats, but being in sub-suburban Colorado, that shouldn't be too hard.
    9 Mar 2011, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • I heard China will bid up potash again. China's food demand will be insatiable and China is sure to help subsidize food prices to appease the masses. That means more agriculture and more consumption. I remain bullish on agriculture this year.

     

    If the US successfully cuts ethanol subsidies the end of the year 2012 may be a reversal to this good year. Anyway take 1 year at a time. This year is clearly a bull for agriculture.
    9 Mar 2011, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Remember Colorado has about 700,000 hunters. How long will the meat hold out.

     

    Over all US had 15 million hunting license sales in 2009. That translates to a 15 million member standing army of minutemen. No one can even attempt to invade the USA. I am sure there would be more minutemen if someone tried.
    9 Mar 2011, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • Not storage cans but food in #10 cans. Thats about the size of a large coffee can.
    9 Mar 2011, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Silver is flattish after a big run. I guess it's taking a breather. Personally, I think it had a big enough run. It will probably flatten then slowly climb over the rest of the year. Buy the miners if you want to play silver. The real impact on earnings by them with this silver price has not fully played out.
    9 Mar 2011, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • Inquiring minds, as they say. If Gross used treasury sales to raise his large cash trove, What did Buffet sell?
    9 Mar 2011, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • What are you all thinking for 3/11 "Day of Rage" in Saudi Arabia?
    9 Mar 2011, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • I'm thinking of my yellow chiffon dress with a pair of Mary Janes.

     

    Oh! You meant what will happen. I don't know. Forget that first part.
    9 Mar 2011, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • Cramer thinks if a Lybian no-fly zone occurs, and if Rage Day passes quietly, the DOW is poised to go up 10%. I call that irrational exhuberance. But, I'll play along.
    9 Mar 2011, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • DG
    You will love this article. It is very infomative about silvers value

     

    dont-tread-on.me/the-s...

     

    Everyone sitting on the fence should read this !!!

     

    ACE
    9 Mar 2011, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • This article represents one extreme, while those still waiting for their shorts on silver to come in represent the other extreme but reality lies somewhere in between. Does the author of that article really believe we should stock up on as much silver as possible so when the dollar disappears we are in good shape owning plenty of silver? Does he really believe this is a reality about to happen in his lifetime? I won't disagree that buying silver is a good long-term investment, especially if one plans on leaving it to children in their will, but to speak and be dead serious about stocking up on as much silver as possible sooner rather than later is bordering on both dangerous and ignorant. It's about as realistic as saying we better get out of ETFs because we're going to wake up one day soon and they will be worthless. It is silly talk plain and simple for if we wake up one day and the dollar is worthless and only those with silver and other PMs in their possession are the only ones set financially then we all better get ready for the end of the world folks because there's a better chance of that happening than waking up one day with worthless cash. Personally, I have grown tired of such fanatics like the author of the article Ace pointed us too. I happen to favor silver very much as an investment, both physical and ETFs but not for any reasons mentioned in that article.

     

    With the economy being down for some time now and unrest throughout the world whether due to politics or natural disaster it is understandable that some may have a negative outlook on the future even to such an extreme as calling for the end of civilization as we know it but at the end of the day, this is not the first time in history that the world has been down, yet things always seem to improve eventually and it will again. So, while I think it is wise to plan conservatively and proceed with caution I also believe these "doomsday" attitudes are a bit much and becoming worn out. Just my two cents but I'll continue my present course without allowing silly authors to sway me toward going down illogical and dangerous paths.
    14 Mar 2011, 11:52 PM Reply Like
  • 4REAL

     

    Why do you think silver is having this great rise in price??? Why does the physical ETF'S carry a high NAV over (SLV). Just curious why you invest in silver??

     

    Bit of advice from Freya was for me to drive up to Canada and open a bank account there before our dollar is worthless. That is my reason, THE USD !!!! Not some change in President, or a promise that we can pay off our debt, Nope silver will be worth more one day over our dollar.

     

    We at least agree that silver is a good investment, But please don;t give time frames of what it will be worth in a year as no one has a crystal ball....ASK DG his opinion about silver and he might enlighten you somewhat!! Do you think we might need it one day as a form of payment?? 14 states do, one already passed it.

     

    Maybe they want to have plan B ready just in case??

     

    ACE
    18 Mar 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • ACE,

     

    I had left my investment money in the hands of a broker for several years after my father passed on and left me money to invest with. Early on things were OK but in time I realized my broker was not looking out for my best interests. I was referred to him by a mutual friend and I think I was more or less just a means of some extra broker fees for him while he had much bigger clients. After losing more than I care to say through this broker I decided to change brokers, put a good chunk of my dollars in safe long term funds that guaranteed no losses with the possibility of modest to very good gains if the S&P does well.

     

    I felt it necessary to put a significant part of my investment money there but also wanted control of some investment dollars so roughly two years ago, after discussion with my wife, I decided to take a modest chunk of cash and put it into one of the low fee per trade companies so that I could invest with those dollars myself online.

     

    I became a very dedicated student of the market by means of extensive reading plus listening to financial radio shows and watching financial television, primarily Fox Business News. I've learned quite a bit and during that time discovered several sources that favored silver as an investment. The more I read and learned, the more promise I saw in the potential of silver. As general rules concerning silver and PMs, I learned that there are at least three important factors to look for.... the dollar, the economy and international affairs. I found when our economy suffered, the dollar sunk and there was unrest abroad, silver and PMs did very well. Since these three factors have all been pretty much in the "not so good" to "bad" categories for quite a while, silver has done well and as I learned these lessons and saw that positive change was not likely for a while, I loaded up on silver.

     

    Now, my philosophy is that if and when those three factors change, silver will no longer be a safe haven to run to and it will likely drop, possibly for some length of time. I have further observed when there is some good news or glimmer of hope within the three categories mentioned above, silver suddenly drops. My feeling as we approach the 2012 election, new candidates with lots of promises for a better future will come forth and give Americans a sense of security they so eagerly search for these days. At this time, confidence builds and silver suffers. What happens beyond the elections is a whole new time to observe and evaluate but for now I see silver doing well or at the very least holding steady and then next summer as we approach the elections when silver hits $45-50/oz I believe its time to get out.

     

    That's pretty much been my philosophy and plan from 2010-2012 and to this point I've done well so I'm sticking with the plan. As for ETF vs physical. I just like the versatility and liquidity of the ETF.

     

    Good Luck.
    4 Apr 2011, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • 4REAL

     

    I only hope we are both right and the silver train continues on. I am going to take your opinion into some decisions i make...Keep on considering holding some physical just in case that worst case senerio does happen. Oh and by the way i agree with you 100% about Kim. Gotta be a NY thing. Keep in touch

     

    ACE
    4 Apr 2011, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Technically speaking, charting-wise, we're at the top of a potential hell hole right now. Dr. Copper has been screaming for 11 weeks. S&P Elliot waves are telling me to take profits and cut losses.

     

    The last week or two I've been tracking VXX more than anything else. Put up a three week chart and you can very easily see a rising line of support, which, we have retraced to at today's close of $31.81.

     

    I see it within our group that we're generally becoming more nervous. Watch that VIX!
    9 Mar 2011, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • I was in the "Apocalypse Now" camp until i read all of the above.

     

    Thanks for cheering me up. Its reminiscent of the talk on SA in the first few months of 2008.

     

    In the "crosshairs" maybe. Doom, Gloom, Boom? shrug.

     

    Take a look at the last 15 year chart of the DJIA and SPX,One Eye keeps pointing it out.

     

    The thing is, it will drop so much if it pans out, that missing the first 5-10% won't matter.
    10 Mar 2011, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  • SPY short interest still above 39%
    10 Mar 2011, 01:27 AM Reply Like
  • This should help make things interesting tomorrow...

     

    (March 10, 2011) China unexpectedly swings to February trade deficit From: MarketWatch

     

    China unexpectedly posted a trade deficit in February, according to official data released Thursday, and economists said this could reduce pressure on the country to allow its currency to appreciate.

     

    The rate of growth for both import and export indicators tapered off considerably from the levels seen in January, distorted by the Chinese New Year holidays during the month.

     

    Monthly exports grew a modest 2.4% from the year-earlier period, while imports grew 19.4%, after soaring 37.7% and 51%, respectively, in January.

     

    The slowdown swung the country’s trade balance to a deficit of $7.3 billion in February, more than offsetting January’s $6.5 billion trade surplus and giving China a net trade deficit in the first two months of the year.

     

    ... surging oil prices could add pressures because each dollar per barrel increase in oil prices could cut China’s annual trade surplus by $1.9 billion. tinyurl.com/4mz824z
    10 Mar 2011, 03:01 AM Reply Like
  • Harvey Organ has some interesting articles from 3/9. The one that caught my eye was a discussion with John Williams of shadowstats.com about the true unemployment figures. All supposition, but I'd rather trust Williams' suppositions than the manipulated BLS figures.

     

    Look for "Flying Blind"

     

    harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

     

    HardToLove
    10 Mar 2011, 05:10 AM Reply Like
  • Am having a cup of Copan coffee from the Finca Santa Isabel. We are sourcing a mahogany order from Honduras (hey, business is not getting worse), and the supplier sent the coffee as a gift. Its probably as close a I will get to Copan, and a rare treat.
    10 Mar 2011, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • Lower: You're drinking a cup of Copan Joe from my friend Raul! He's regarded as the weathiest man in Copan, and also owns the Copan Marina Hotel that's on my list in the End Of The World Party thread.

     

    I've heard that Copan region coffee is some of the finest coffee in the world. Haven't tasted it, because I don't enjoy coffee. Love the smell, though.
    10 Mar 2011, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Maya, put a little Irish whisky in it and I bet you would enjoy it then. LOL
    10 Mar 2011, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • The supplier of the order is the brother-in-law of the finca owner....small world.
    I like real estate. Maybe there is a future for the QC'er in a coffee finca!!
    10 Mar 2011, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • skip the coffee... just fill it with the Irish.
    10 Mar 2011, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Skip the coffee and bring on the Jamo; I'm getting pummeled today.
    10 Mar 2011, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Who isn't!! I would like to hear from anyone who is doing well today. I should have put on some shorts. I think it's time.
    10 Mar 2011, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • I'm up about 10% on the HDGE and 5% on the SDS hedges from a couple of weeks ago. Its been a tough hold, though. And probably I'll stay in too long.
    10 Mar 2011, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Does having lot's of dry powder and having taken a profit on (CPST), some days back, expecting it would start coming back to me, count as "doing well" today? It started coming back yesterday and I'm looking for the high $1.5x as my worst potential re-entry.

     

    Other than that, I think this throwback is going to give us some opportunities. I'm eyeballing GPL, and others, ATM, but want to wait and see how it looks to behave. Lot's of folks misread, IMO, that debt pay-down as a negative and I think it gives me an opportunity coming around.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Mar 2011, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • I would have, but the Boyz had pumped VXX up so much before the bell, I couldn't see jumping in. Been mostly flat since the opening.
    10 Mar 2011, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • CEO of Molycorp will be on FOX BUSINESS between 2 and 3 pm today, Might be worth watching it !!!

     

    ACE
    10 Mar 2011, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • I love reading Phillip Davis. But he, like many others is now gone from SA:

     

    Sorry but SA has decided we don't qualify for their Premium Program, which pays the author one penny per view yet they tell other writers they cannot publish on our site if they want to get their pennies from SA so we are no longer providing free content here.

     

    It's not about the pennies, obviously, just the principal of the thing. As I've often said, there's really not much net benefit to us publishing on SA - they were good to us when we started and we extended them access that no one else had and we have turned down many, many offers to have our content published elsewhere out of loyalty to SA but today was the last straw as a woman I've never met sent EMails to us to "handle" the situation - which is to say - either we give them 100% exclusive access or they don't pay us.

     

    If anyone does want to subscribe - I will offer a 50% discount to either a Stock World Weekly membership ($295/yr) or a Report Membership ($695/yr) for SA readers.

     

    Just contact greg at philstockworld dot com and tell him I said so.

     

    It has been fun writing here - I did enjoy it but like all so many good things on the web, SA has come to an end.
    10 Mar 2011, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Added (AXPW) at .88.
    10 Mar 2011, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting User....
    This from a SA article. I like companies with "limited downside risk and attractive upside potential."

     

    "Axion's PbC battery is almost ready for commercial roll-out. The company has taken delivery of its second generation electrode fabrication line and expects to commission the line by the end of this month. Once the line is commissioned, potential customers who have been testing first generation products for over a year will need to conduct extensive process and equipment validation evaluations before placing orders. Barring unforeseen difficulties, that process should be completed this year. Axion has enough capital to finance its activities over the next year, but will need additional capital to build new electrode production capacity if demand for its product develops. Given the unique attributes of the PbC technology and Axion's relatively low market capitalization of $70 million, I believe Axion has limited downside risk and attractive upside potential."
    14 Mar 2011, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • We are slightly below the lower Bollinger on the DJIA which also happens to be the 50 day MA (12,000). I don't see any significant resistance levels (platform) after that until about 11,200… the 200 day MA is at 11,000. The good news is that for whatever reason, oil is down… The bad news is that if we continue down tomorrow....
    10 Mar 2011, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • LYNAS had a trade of 300 shares before the bell that was a buck below the trade before. I called Schwab and they said the trade is legit, now what can cause this type of differential at the buzzer, Schwab rep was at a loss as far as an explanation other than a market maker made a mistake, or a typo ,

     

    Can anyone explain this (LYSDY)

     

    Thanks
    ACE
    10 Mar 2011, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • I don't have access to specific vol data here but Yahoo shows sales of over 5k shares about 10 minutes before the close… however, in the very next recording interval I am seeing sales of 6K shares… that's the one that did the deed… I do see the tiny sale right at the close. It looks like the 6k sales started at 19.8.

     

    Does someone know something? or did someone see a lot of stops at 19.8, and they sold just enough to trigger those stops… now they swoop in the aftermarket and buy cheep….

     

    We all ate it on Lysdy today.
    10 Mar 2011, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • I don't see it on my "Time & Sales" for either LYSDY or LYSCF.

     

    Which one? WHOOPS! Hold tight. Didn't happen, if my panel is right. But, we did see that *today* near the end of the market.

     

    15:57:02 6K @ $19.80
    15:58:32 300 @ $18.80

     

    This could be manipulation.

     

    Essentially someone puts in an order to make the day end up higher or lower than where it would end so that traders and computers will see something other than what really happened tomorrow. And with HFT computers, they might even trigger stops today and get some trades really cheap.

     

    I could believe it was a "fat finger" because the 8 and 9 or close to each other on the numeric keypad. And if they did it from a smaller keyboard (Blackberry, etc.) it would be even easier.

     

    Ask your broker to get the actual trade data from his feed (on my platform it "Time & Sales" that shows all ask, bid, trade info).

     

    HardToLove
    10 Mar 2011, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • YES, IT WAS A 300 SHARE sale seconds after the 6k trade according to Schwab,
    10 Mar 2011, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • HTL

     

    All he said was the difference between the bid and ask was 5 cents...

     

    ACE
    10 Mar 2011, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Bought off their warrants yesterday.

     

    biz.yahoo.com/e/110310...

     

    This indicates a lot of *possibilities*. They know something is going to drive the shares much higher. Maybe they got the deal done with the "Fortune 500" company (a rep came to CPST premises the day after the CC), A/R and/or DSO had substantial improvement, ... who knows.

     

    But this is the time to seriously consider CPST.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    10 Mar 2011, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • HTL: Greatly appreciated!
    10 Mar 2011, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • That figures, I just sold mine today to by that additional GPL. I had a 10% gain on it even after the drop it just had. I hope this does not turn into that song......regrets, I've had a few...but did it my waaaayyyyyyy!!
    10 Mar 2011, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • CME (crimex) report 3/9/11

     

    Silver UP 311,808 oz
    102,755,597 oz start
    103,069,486 oz finish

     

    Gold UP 21,285 oz
    11,076,935 oz start
    11,098,220 oz finish

     

    10 Mar 2011, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • Japan was struck by a magnitude 8.9 earthquake off its northeastern coast Friday, unleashing a 13-foot (4-meter) tsunami that washed away cars and tore away buildings along the coast near the epicenter. There were reports of injuries in Tokyo. 7 Plus after shocks hitting...
    11 Mar 2011, 03:05 AM Reply Like
  • Hawaii begins to evacuate coastal areas in expectation of severe tsunami.
    11 Mar 2011, 03:55 AM Reply Like
  • My son Daniel is in Tokyo airport and went through the quake. He thought the building was going to come down. They have cancelled flights and he has been given a sleeping bag to spend the night there. He was told he might get to fly out in the morning. No word on the tsunami. All other family members are safe in southern Japan away from the quake.

     

    Nuclear reactor would be the biggest concern I would think since cooling system failed and it went into emergency shut down. Evacuations around the facility have begun.

     

    8.9 quake is the largest in recorded history for Japan.
    11 Mar 2011, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • "He was told he might get to fly out in the morning. No word on the tsunami. All other family members are safe in southern Japan away from the quake. "

     

    That's the best news.

     

    I was concerned that your relatives over there might have been injured,

     

    HardToLove
    11 Mar 2011, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • Thank heavens they are okay, Guns.

     

    The perigee moon is already doing its thing.
    11 Mar 2011, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Just got off the phone with Daniel, he was on one of those moving walkways when it hit and it started shaking and making noises, lurching and jumping and he thought the walkway was breaking down so he jumped off it and then realized the entire building was shaking. He said "I'm an idiot dad, I thought it was the walkway and it turned out it was the whole building shaking." He went outside with the crowd into the parking area and thought man this stuff is going to fall down on top of us. The after shocks were just as frightening he said.

     

    He is doing fine and I told him to stock up on some food if the food store opens (doubtful) and some drinks in case he is stuck there for more than one day. You never know what damage might keep the flights grounded for a while.

     

    I suggested he volunteer for any assistance crews that the base puts together since he speaks the language once he gets back to the base. Over all my family is fine, I feel for those familys that are not so lucky today. The tsunami photos are really frightening. Its going to be a big death toll I fear just from that. Lots of debris in that water is most likely whats left of a lot of homes.
    11 Mar 2011, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • Watching Japanese tv and the area north of tokyo is burning. Massive fires across whole areas of citys. Its looks like its gonna be bad. Its dark and they stand out really well. Hard to tell if some of it is just lights or fires.

     

    It almost looks like a lava flow throught the area. Close up now showing it is fires.
    11 Mar 2011, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Bought CPST at 1.59
    11 Mar 2011, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • The S&P bounced on the lower Bollinger.
    11 Mar 2011, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • I think earthquake in Japan will hit our bond market here in the US. We could see trouble now selling any bonds and maybe Japan will be cashing in some bonds to pay for rebuilding.

     

    It could be a financial earth quake for us with a lot of spill over into the risk trade. Keep your eyes open on this market. Strategic investments are the only thing I can think of right now. I am not sure US dollar will do well if demand to cash in treasuries gets going. Lots may cash in treasuries to get out first just from the possiblity of Japan cashing in bonds. It could snow ball. Just trying to give folks some advance warning to watch for this.
    11 Mar 2011, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • DG

     

    My prayers are with your family, please keep us updated when your son gets a plane out ..

     

    Thanks
    ACE
    11 Mar 2011, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • I'm glad to read your son and extended family are fine DG. It's a terrible tragedy.
    So far, there were 19 aftershocks and some of them went as high as 6.0.
    The Japanese officials are saying the aftershocks can be as strong as the initial quake @ 8.9. I just heard this on Fox. The dangers continue.
    11 Mar 2011, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Hey good people. Sorry to come over here with a REE? but I know someone could help enlighten me. Did what I think just happen just happen to QSURD and how did I miss this? They are now showing up as QSURF on the OTC and are dramatically down...Are they still moving to a large, AMEX or not? Need help with this one...it looks ugly atm.
    11 Mar 2011, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Hawaii is getting waves from the Tsunami now.
    Crescent City CA has been evacuated.

     

    The S & P turned positive. Go figure.
    11 Mar 2011, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Silver on an upsurge nearing $36.81. Trying to get back to $36 or better?
    11 Mar 2011, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • GPL up 10% right now.

     

    Could be this from yesterday along with silver surge.

     

    Great Panther Silver Expands Silver-Gold Mineralization at San Ignacio Mine Property, Guanajuato
    11 Mar 2011, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • QE3 is in the bag is what ZH is saying and that is causing the rise of silver and gold.

     

    Things have certainly taken a turn to look more likely we will have QE3 but we will not know till the Benny Madoff puts us "all in" on the crap table.
    11 Mar 2011, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Thank goodness! I thought he was going to put us "all in" the crapper!

     

    I guess that's what I expected from the U.S. being "flush" with money.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Mar 2011, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Pretty much the same thing.
    11 Mar 2011, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • European Beggars:
    news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20...
    11 Mar 2011, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • That earthquake might cause problems for Europe because the Japanese insurance companies were buying their bonds... Now with the earthquake, those insurance companies are likely to experience a liquidity problem... so they will not likely be buying any more European bonds, and in fact, they might be selling them.
    11 Mar 2011, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Wait till its titled "US Beggers".
    11 Mar 2011, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • (March 11, 2011) Radiation Level Rising In Fukushima Nuclear Plant Turbine Building From: Nikkel.com

     

    The radiation level is rising in the building housing a turbine of the No. 1 reactor of the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant following Friday's powerful earthquake, the operator Tokyo Electric Power Co. said Saturday.

     

    The company also said monitoring data suggested the air pressure level has also soared inside the container of the reactor.

     

    ----------------
    News is thin on details here… however, increases in air pressure are almost certainly related to rising heat… and we know something happened to the cooling system… Increasing radiation levels is likely associated with loss of water… Lets hope they have this under control.
    11 Mar 2011, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Obama speaks.... sadly no news - just hot air

     

    He did mention T Boone Pickents by name... I looked and (CLNE) was already up 13%... so that part of the speech was leaked...
    11 Mar 2011, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • That pisses me off. More proof that this game is rigged.
    11 Mar 2011, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • I thought I got lucky this morning picking up DNN for $3.00 on a progammed trade (chart shows I got fat finger lucky). But the more I think about it, if that Japan nuke leaks, the whole industry may come to a standstill. I put a stop in at $3.05.
    11 Mar 2011, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • SILVER is above $36.00 again..lets see where it goes from here

     

    ACE
    11 Mar 2011, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • DG

     

    FOX BUSINESS just reported another strong eathquake hitting one of the islands, and there is fear that there is a nuclear leak, the cooling system was damaged in the first quake. Maybe you knew this already

     

    ACE
    11 Mar 2011, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Another quake of 6.6 magnutude closer to tokyo and the reactor is being bled off of excess pressure releasing small quantities of radiation. All is not well. I am sure Daniel is having a real exciting day. I do not know where the reactor is in relation to where my son is but I would assume they are not close by.
    11 Mar 2011, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Just bought PCX for the weekend. If this nuke leaks, coal stocks should rise.
    11 Mar 2011, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Its leaking but the chinese plan to build 60 reactors over the next 10 years.

     

    Hopefully they are paying attention and do not cut corners when it comes to safety measures and earth quakes in particular. 60 in ten years seems impossible.
    11 Mar 2011, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • You are aware that *we* are flying over coolants for the reactor?

     

    The Japanese are quite technically astute as well.

     

    I truly believe that there will not be a large downtime for their reactor.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Mar 2011, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Ruthless....
    11 Mar 2011, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • I agree, Rain. Don't like betting the thing will leak. Didn't like making money from the oil disaster, or H1N1 last year. Big money surged into refiners today. Wish I had thought of that one.

     

    Always feel weird about these short term moves based on human tragedy. Took me two years of trading stocks before I finally gave up and began shorting the market when the opportunity presents itself. Just couldn't get myself to gain from others pain. Now I call it opportunistic hedging.

     

    Dang, I feel guilty...
    11 Mar 2011, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • On the other hand if you are an active investor (and not a buy and hold) then you need to be nimble. Moving money out of places which may get hurt and into places which may be poised to gain is the same exercise you practice, and post about, Maya, whether the event is a political speech, a rebellion, a drought, or an earthquake. I wouldn't classify this as profiting from human tragedy as much as I would protecting your assets by moving them into places you perceive have better risk/reward at the moment.

     

    Everyone has to draw his own lines, of course, but any investment drawn out to it farthest logical extremes ends up hurting someone somewhere. I think OG and I both expressed disgust with investing in a company that made rolling X-ray trucks and airport scanners, but others may call that as sound as investing in Raytheon (e.g companies who keep our nation secure). It's both a grey line and a moving target and I don't think it is easy to call "gaining from the pain of others". An investment in H1N1 drug companies can be called promoting research that makes people better as easily as it can be called "profiting from the flu".

     

    I avoid all kinds of companies for my own reasons (which I don't usually discuss) but I accept that others have their own lines to draw. I can't call my profits "moral" and someone else's "immoral". The moment I think I can, I have lost any real morality I may possess.
    11 Mar 2011, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • The last quake that damaged a reactor, took years to get back online.
    11 Mar 2011, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • Life...
    11 Mar 2011, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • Maya: I am sorry if I made you feel bad. I should have been more careful how I expressed that...meant to be a joking nudge. I, in no way, believe you to be insensitive.

     

    I wonder if there are any good opportunities to invest in those going to the aid/rebuild of the affected parts of the country?
    12 Mar 2011, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • No problem, Rain. I don't enjoy profiting from this or any other catastrophic event. I did detect a certain dark humor from the "ruthless" comment; I do enjoy the dark humor.

     

    Though right now, any humor about this tragedy is likely ill-concieved and timed.

     

    But we are indeed presented with an investing opportunity. This nuclear emergency is likely going to once again shift the world away from nuclear energy. Most certainly stall it. I don't think it's insensitive to speculate here in this forum, to take note of shifting trends, and try to predict which companies/industries are going to benefit.

     

    Most certainly is going on over in Triple's REE thread.
    12 Mar 2011, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • User: (BCOND) may have some downside risk. Next level of support, and a small one it is, is $2.50. After that the next level of support is $2.20.
    11 Mar 2011, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • 33 foot wall of water is about ready to consume Sendai. Check out photo number 12.

     

    www.theglobeandmail.co.../
    11 Mar 2011, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Evacuation perimeter around Japan nuke has been expanded to 10 kilometers. Below article says radiation levels 1000% normal levels:

     

    www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4...

     

    The backup power that was to be used in emergency...those lines have failed. The next backup plan is to use diesle generators...those, apparently, are under water. The next back up is batteries, which are being used. I'm guessing there is a mad dash to get electricity restored to this leaking nuke. Japan has declared a nuclear emergency.

     

    Not looking good.
    11 Mar 2011, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • Getting worse by the minute. Now it appears there are three nuclear reactors in trouble:

     

    www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4...
    11 Mar 2011, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Chinese earthquake, 24 dead and a thousand buildings leveled:
    www.csmonitor.com/Worl...
    11 Mar 2011, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • What is ruthless, Rain? Please, explain. Thank you.
    11 Mar 2011, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • I was -in jest- referring to Maya's purchase on the possibility of a reactor leak. In no way, was I intending to insenuate he was insensitive - meant to be a friendly nudge...should have placed a ;) I can see from all comments both here and on the REE blog the kindness and concern for those caught in this tragedy on the part of all...Maya included! Sorry for the vagueness
    12 Mar 2011, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • European re-insurers are getting hit by Japan's earthquake. Gee, it seems European bankers manage to insure and invest in the worst things time and time again. Junk bonds, Nick Lessen style bad currency trades, mortgage backed securities, CDS and other bad derivatives, AIG insurance games, and even Bernie Madoff fraud. They sure have a taste for risk and financial pain.
    11 Mar 2011, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • What do the Japanese make that we need or do not make ourselves?

     

    Gave theses plants been shuttered or have they been sundered?

     

    Its not going to be just this one Nuke plant, they will be looking for damage at all of them. Bedrock damage.

     

    If they keep all of them offline who gets power first? I heard 4 million w/o power, people first or factories first?

     

    Either way, Japan will need oil/coal, more than they have imported in decades. Do they have LNG facilities?
    11 Mar 2011, 11:39 PM Reply Like
  • Last time I was looking at NG (seems very long ago now), Japan was a big importer of LNG, IIRC.

     

    Let's hope that they haven't cut back on their import and storage facilities.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Mar 2011, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • Freya: Exacly why I bought PCX today.

     

    On quite another note, and I'm not sure exactly how to write this, as it's hugely scientifically debated, is this Super Moon thing. During this cycle we've now seen a major earthquake in New Zealand, today's earthquakes in Japan, and a lessor one in China.

     

    Here is my loose theory. Not sure I believe in it, but I feel compelled to bring it into this forum. The Super Moon theory is both getting scientifically squashed and yet from the spiritualists gaining huge support. Both sides are hugely underinformed.

     

    Here is what no one is saying, anywhere I've read. Everything written is about the Super Moon's perigee. That no way when the moon is 1 to 2% closer to the earth that there's no way it will cause these earthquakes.

     

    Part of me wants to say bullshit. Part of me wants to say okay. Yet, what we have here is opposing forces competing. Yes, they say, the gravitational forces will be up 7% on March 19th. But now they are, due to the moon being further away from the planet due to the elipitical orbit, somewhere around 7% less. That folks is a 14% swing. No one is saying this.

     

    This gravitational shift in theory should have grave impact on the magma the tectonic plates float above. Lets call this a magma tide.

     

    Blast me in late April if I'm wrong. But this theory I have makes sense, and is historically reckoned.
    12 Mar 2011, 01:23 AM Reply Like
  • I think in its long history science has always done a decent job explaining what can happen but has a much worse track record predicting what can not happen. As understanding of underlying forces and inter-relationships grow, previously dubious concepts (germs, flight, space travel, genetics to name a few) become matters for science to predict and describe more fully.

     

    I am much more confident when I hear a scientist saying, "Yes with what we know about that world, that can happen," than I am when I hear a scientist tell me what is not possible. What is possible now will be possible 100 years from now. But what is thought to be impossible now often becomes possible when we learn more about how things work.

     

    That's not to say the moon thing is definitely the cause of these earthquakes. But until we know enough about them to predict them as well as we can a summer shower, how can we really be ruling these kinds of factors out?
    12 Mar 2011, 01:41 AM Reply Like
  • DM: Syntrifical forces at work. No one has written about this that I can find. Moon closer one day, two weeks later farther away. Two weeks later, close as it has been in 18 years. There has to be gravitational effect, compounded by syntrifical forces.

     

    I predicted...well...the moon predicted this major earthquake. If I'm right more will come during the next six weeks.

     

    Really hope I'm wrong.
    12 Mar 2011, 01:56 AM Reply Like
  • Like rocking your car out of a ditch or snow bank. You don't get out on the first try, but by swinging back and forth, you can eventually break free.
    12 Mar 2011, 02:22 AM Reply Like
  • DM: Yep, but quite possibly on a just a tad more grandeur scale! Surely not comfortable with my ruthless assessments. However this might be portrayed, I'm thinking of which stock might benefit most from the earth being gyrating by the moon.

     

    Yeah...okay, it's late Friday night. But it's extremely fun to consider!
    12 Mar 2011, 02:39 AM Reply Like
  • ACK!!!! *** BREAKING NEWS - BREAKING NEWS ***

     

    An explosion blew the roof off an unstable reactor north of Tokyo on Saturday, Japanese media said, raising fears of a disastrous meltdown at a nuclear plant damaged in the massive earthquake that hit Japan.

     

    NHK television and Jiji said the outer structure of the building that houses the reactor appeared to have blown off, which could suggest the containment building had already been breached. tinyurl.com/47bwywl

     

    The government's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency says nuclear material cesium has been detected near the Number One reactor at the Fukushima Number One nuclear power plant. The agency says the detection indicates that some of the nuclear fuel at the reactor may have started melting, because cesium is produced during a nuclear chain reaction. tinyurl.com/45z4v77

     

    Hell, there is NO doubt that a large explosion has occurred... This is not a release of steam... watch the video in this link all the way through... about three quarters of the way through they switch to a close in view showing the start of the event... you can see a shock wave from a large explosion as the reactor building is blown apart tinyurl.com/4f7abn6

     

    ----------------
    The presence of cesium means a melt down or partial melt down has occurred. I hope the people around that plant evacuated...

     

    This will have major repercussions for Japan given its reliance on nuclear power. It will also have major repercussions for the entire nuclear power industry.
    12 Mar 2011, 04:57 AM Reply Like
  • OG, what was that Thorium Stock?
    12 Mar 2011, 06:01 AM Reply Like
  • I am astonished at the apparent low-key spin the Japanese government initially tried to put on this on-going nuclear disaster.

     

    The reactor building blows up on live TV, and cesium is detected... you don't get cesium unless fission has taken place... that means some of the fuel rods HAVE melted, not that they MAY have melted...

     

    A few minutes ago it appears the Japanese government is finally starting to communicate the reality of the seriousness of the situation at the Fukushima nuclear complex.

     

    ------------
    "The plant is experiencing a nuclear meltdown," Japanese nuclear scientists confirmed, after Prime Minister Naoto Kan visited the site in a helicopter early today.

     

    Reports said the main building of the plant housing the reactor as well as the outer walls were blown away in the high intensity explosion which occurred at 3.30 pm local time (1200 IST) as the cooling water levels dropped alarmingly through evaporation after the quake had damaged the main plant.

     

    The authorities said that an emergency had been declared at all FIVE nuclear reactors as the units had lost cooling ability, as US dispatched plane loads of coolants to the disaster struck nation.

     

    They said that Fukushima, Daiichi plant unit number 1 had exploded after failing to tamp down heat and pressure inside the reactor which had suffered extensive damaged due to tidal waves set off by the earth quake which cut down the power supply to the plant.

     

    Japan's Nuclear Safety Agency described the situation at the Fukushima plant dire. tinyurl.com/4zxjngs
    12 Mar 2011, 06:01 AM Reply Like
  • On CNN this A.M, guest was a disaster management expert from U of GA. He has worked with the folks at that reactor, including one in the control room and has on-going contact with them.

     

    He says the explosion was a hydrogen explosion and no additional radiation was released, based on the fact that if the cloud contained radiation it would be detected outside of Japan (satellites?).

     

    He further says he gets conflicting reports from his contacts - some say it is worsening others say it's improving.

     

    The cause: 13 diesel generators all failed to operate. No cause was given. Under the circumstances, I would have to guess that fuel delivery would be the problem. If they didn't have on-site quake resistant storage and battery-backed pumps, I can see all 13 failing to work. These generators are supposed to operate the cooling pumps when main power is not available.

     

    As a last thought, just keep in mind how unreliable our MSM is due to "headline chasing" and lack of traditional journalistic skills. What I heard on CNN and what we are getting of the web (whether traditional sources or blogs) must be viewed with at least a jaundiced eye.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Mar 2011, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • While this disaster unfolds, I remembered something posted in the Swine Flu concentrator about a BARDA award to a company that makes a treatment for acute radiation exposure... the company was Aeolus (AOLS).

     

    I decided to take a closer look at the situation and found that BARDA has been quite active with respect to awards for radiation damage... Many of the companies are private, but here is another public company - Derma Sciences (DSCI). They were awarded a contract for a drug that treats skin injuries associated with acute radiation exposure.
    12 Mar 2011, 07:12 AM Reply Like
  • I'm saddened. This is really scary, frightening. Who would have survived the "hydrogen blast?" Who is in there still working?
    12 Mar 2011, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • The blast in that nuclear reactor #1 actually crumbled the exterior walls, but the inside is built in a huge steel box that was unharmed and contained the blast.
    The thorium company is Lightbridge.
    LTBR (Common Stock)
    Exchange NASDAQ CM (US Dollar)
    Price $5.77
    Change (%) 0.07 (1.23%)
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    Previous Close $5.70
    Intraday High $5.77
    Intraday Low $5.60
    52 Week High $11.15
    52 Week Low $5.00
    Data as of 03/11/11 3:59 p.m. ET
    For that thorium stock, click here:
    www.ltbridge.com/compa...
    12 Mar 2011, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • The Japanese Prime Minister is saying the nuclear reactors are not leaking.
    www.channelnewsasia.co...

     

    Disney announced their Tokyo facility had soil liquification from the earthquake, but no damage to people or buildings.
    12 Mar 2011, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • How can he say that when cesium has been detected? Why are they continiung to expand the evacuation zone? I understand this is precautionary, but I'm thinking there's more than just that.

     

    I'm reading, unconfirmed, that the back up batteries only have 5 to 8 more hours of power. I've read, also, unconfirmed, that more batteries are being sent. Why are they not there already?

     

    When now they are using seawater to cool the reactor....

     

    12 Mar 2011, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • You are correct Maya. The presence of cesium indicates that fuel rods have melted....

     

    HT, if the explosion was caused by a hydrogen bubble that could also be an indication that a partial meltdown has occurred.

     

    The presence of a hydrogen bubble explosion brings to mind the Three Mile Island accident. They also had a hydrogen bubble, although it did not explode. The key question is "what caused the hydrogen bubble to form at Three Mile Island?"

     

    It formed when a part of reactor's core was uncovered. The fuel rods have a cladding of zircaloy. When the reactor's core was uncovered a high-temperature chemical reaction (Rapid oxidation) between water and the zircaloy metal tubes holding the nuclear fuel pellets created hydrogen gas that gathered at the top of the reactor vessel. For a time, NRC officials believed the hydrogen bubble could explode, though such an explosion was never possible since there was not enough oxygen in the system.

     

    So large quantities of hydrogen are produced as core elements melt. This happens as the result of the rapid oxidation of Zircaloy (fuel rod cladding) by steam. Rapid oxidation begins at about 1500 K (2,240 F). I am going into detail here because the devil is in the details. Here comes the devil...

     

    During the rapid oxidation process (a chemical reaction), large amount of heat are generated. In fact, above 1500 K, the power from that rapid oxidation process exceeds that from nuclear decay heat (runaway reaction) unless the oxidation rate is limited by the supply of either zircaloy or steam - which it would be if the core was only partially uncovered. Temperature in the reactor vessel is of critical importance because the stainless steel reactor vessel melts at 2750 F and concrete turns to lava at 2000 F.

     

    The presence of cesium AND the presence of hydrogen bubbles are both indicators that some kind of meltdown has occurred. At the present time we don't know if the meltdown process is continuing.

     

    The last I heard they are pumping seawater onto the core... That is certainly not a part of their emergency protocols, that's an act of desperation. I have great concern for the engineers in those control rooms, and the fire fighters that are probably involved with pumping seawater into the core... I remember well what happened to the hero’s that sacrificed their lives trying to control the Chernobyl melt down.

     

    OG, you are also correct, at the present time it appears the containment vessel has not been breached which would indicate that the explosion occurred in the outer building. But what kind of damage did that explosion cause? Are key support systems located in that outer building? Where is the spent fuel stored? Did the explosion have an effect on the containment vessel?

     

    The Death of Public Trust?
    Irrespective of quantities of radiation realized into the environment, this is an unmitigated disaster. Unlike other power generation systems, the building of nuclear power systems is very much based on public trust. Government and or company officials telling everyone that the situation is under control while the public is watching live videos of the reactor building blowing up is not contusive to the building of public trust. These old reactor systems are dinosaurs.

     

    ----------------------...
    Here are some other factoids I surfaced during my research today:

     

    * Fukushima 1 (the one with the explosion) went into commercial operation in March of 1971. Power reactors are licensed for 40 years and then require approval for life extension. tinyurl.com/yg7wgk9

     

    Hmmm.. 1971 + 40 = 2011... it blows up in March of 2011... now that's ironic!

     

    * In 2007, Ishibashi Katsuhiko a seismologist and professor of urban safety at Kobe University said Nuclear power plants in Japan have a "fundamental vulnerability" to major earthquakes.

     

    The government, the power industry and the academic community had seriously underestimated the potential risks posed by major quakes. The trouble is that Japan began building up its atomic energy system 40 years ago, when seismic activity in the country was comparatively low.

     

    This affected the designs of plants, which were not built, to robust enough standards. Katsuhiko highlighted three incidents at reactors between 2005 and 2007. Atomic plants at Onagawa, Shika and Kashiwazaki-Kariwa were all struck by earthquakes that triggered tremors stronger than those to which the reactor had been designed to survive. tinyurl.com/6gcpeel

     

    * Another factor I heard on the news is the possibility that there is a special kind of fuel that contains plutonium [MOX or pluthermal as its known in Japan] in these reactors. I spent some significant time looking into this issue. I think it was well spent since it surfaced a hidden issue - Japan's spent fuel rod recycling plan. Something that is absolutely critical to their use of nuclear energy. Here is what I surfaced....

     

    By end of January 2010 the Nuclear & Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) on behalf of the Ministry (METI) approved the use of pluthermal fuel in ten reactors, including: Takahama 3 & 4, Fukishima I-3 (Fukishima 1 is the one that just blew up), Kashiwazaki Kariwa 3, Genkai 3, Hamaoka 4, Onagawa 3 and Shimane-2. This is expected to occur progressively to 2012, after modifications to the reactors to take a one-quarter or one-third core of pluthermal. NISA permission for pluthermal use in Tomari 3 is pending.

     

    However, two prefectural governments - Fukushima and Niigata - moved to defer the use of pluthermal fuel at reactors within those prefectures, forcing TEPCO and Kansai to suspend or reschedule their planned use there. tinyurl.com/yg7wgk9

     

    So I don't believe Fukishima 1 was loaded with pluthermal.

     

    Pluthermal fuel is made from spent fuel rods. So it’s an important program for Japan because it provides a solution to the storage of spent fuel rods by re-cycling them and punching up the energy with the use of plutonium.

     

    The devil:
    The key issue here concerns the lower melting point of pluthermal [MOX] fuel which would make it easer for a meltdown or other severe accidents to occur. The ‘pluthermal’ plan could also make control rods less effective. This occurs because of the fuels higher emission rate of neutrons. tinyurl.com/4ux9sod

     

    So if even if a partial melt down occurred at Fukishima 1, and the containment vessel was not breached, questions are raised with respect to Japans fuel rod recycling plan for these older and seismically vulnerable reactors. The reprocessed fuel comes from Areva (ARVCF) in France. I would think their stock price might be affected....

     

    Irrespective of concerns, I suspect Japan's recycling fuel plan will continue... they don't really have much of a choice.

     

    So that's it for now... an avalanche of information... I hope some of it is useful. 30.
    12 Mar 2011, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • Thank you!

     

    That link O.G provided earlier is probably the long-term solution.

     

    www.ltbridge.com/company/

     

    I read through the technology things and it looks promising.

     

    Let's hope the seawater does the job.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Mar 2011, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Excellent research, User!

     

    It appears that a partial meltdown has occurred. Which "possibly" means temperatures did briefly reach 5000 F, the melting temperature of the cesium pellets, a fissile material used. Boric acid is now being poured with seawater into the reactor. Boric acid absorbs neutrons. This process is expected to take several hours. And it will take an expected ten days to fill the entire reactor.

     

    Still wondering what power sources they are using. Generators must have been helicoptered in?

     

    I also saw the interview about plutonium not being used in this reactor.

     

    The evacuation zone has once again been increased, to 12 miles. Citizens are advised to not drink water, and to keep a moist towel applied to their faces.

     

    Bless those brave people fighting this meltdown.
    12 Mar 2011, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • This reactor story is quite fluid. Seems now the Japan PM may have been intentionally lying, or carefully changing his wording each time he speaks.

     

    The below article is the best I found yet.

     

    What seems to be important right now is that the continous onslaught of aftershocks is undermining the ability to both vent to release pressure, and to also cool the rods with seawater.

     

    A Japanese trade minister has said the reactor is now virtually out of control.

     

    A second Fukushima reactor is loosing its cooling systems.

     

    dawnwires.com/politics.../
    12 Mar 2011, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Live Japan CNN feed with interpreter

     

    www.cnn.com/video/flas...

     

    HardToLove
    12 Mar 2011, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Japan's nuke regulators rate the reactor accident as a 4 on the international scale of 7.

     

    Fukishima Prefecture says 3 hospital patients have been exposed to radiation.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Mar 2011, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Putting an 8.9 earthquakes power into perspective.

     

    The 8.9 earthquake appears to have moved the main island of Japan by 8 feet (2.4 meters) and shifted the Earth on its axis by nearly 4 inches (10 centimeters).
    12 Mar 2011, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • I saw that last evening. I wonder what the side effects of the axis shift will be.

     

    Another relative measure to keep in mind is the relative log nature of the Richter scale. Each integer increment is 10 times the power of the prior digit. So, an 8 is 10 times as strong as a 7, e.g.

     

    As of now, NHK World feed, via the CNN link, has 6 reactors with declared emergencies.

     

    The three at Fukishima and two at another location and one at a third location.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Mar 2011, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • I heard an interview that computed the main island had shifted by 3 meters, and the underwater fissure by as much as twenty meters. The nearby landscape actually rose by eight feet!

     

    All figures unconfirmed.
    12 Mar 2011, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • The NHK feed says a total of 9 people exposed to radiation.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Mar 2011, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Who thinks the market will be down on Monday?
    At the same time, a huge european union bail out is underway.
    finance.yahoo.com/news...=
    12 Mar 2011, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • I do. But not big. Too much "free money" in circulation that is debasing too quickly to let it sit on the sidelines. Got to keep it in the markets to earn a "nominal yield", regardless of real purchasing power.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Mar 2011, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • OG: Can't help but open down. Uranuim stocks, possibly even utililities that operate nukes, like Constellation Energy, may open down. The dollar should gain against then yen, and the euro, due to the Spain downgrade, with Portugal possibly next.

     

    Dollar priced commodities should in theory go down.

     

    But, because massive rebuilding must occur in Japan, copper may actually be up. I expect coal stocks to move upward. The boyz will lift refiners pre-market.

     

    Bastard Khadafi using this time of tragedy to grab back "his" country. Fully expect a no-fly zone by this time next week. Lybian situation is going to get uglier than it already is. US Navy closing in.

     

    Yemen situation also worsening. Bahrain, too.

     

    Then there is this top headline story slipping beneath the radar, that Afghan president's cousin was killed by a NATO raid, and now wants NATO out of Afghanistan:

     

    news.yahoo.com/s/afp/2...

     

    Every single estimate of Japan loss of life, loss of property, those injured, is being grossly underestimated by the MSM. It's almost as if the Christ Church earthquake never occured.

     

    12 Mar 2011, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • NHK reports that the fuel rods in Fukishima reactor are now submerged in sea water. No change in radiation readings.

     

    No. 2 is being vented and injecting water through the pumps. Stability is expected.

     

    Ditto for reactor no. 3.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. Cesium and iodine have been detected, indicating, as User mentioned, some melting of fuel.
    12 Mar 2011, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Putin has pledged to increase NG supplies to Japan as well as aiding in handling the reactor issues, providing expertise gained during the Chernoble meltdown.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Mar 2011, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • In contrast to Haiti coverage, film from the 2004 tsunami, or even Katrina, video from Japan shows macro destruction and devastation but is so far quietly sanitized of more disturbing images.
    13 Mar 2011, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Looks like the yen is going to strengthen relative to the dollar, due to repatriation of yen to the homeland.

     

    Amazingly, DOW futures are up 83.

     

    The fight with the reactors continues.
    13 Mar 2011, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Will Japan's Earthquake Have an Adverse Effect On The World's Economies?

     

    Japan produces a lot of parts and sub-assemblies for companies all over the world. Damaged plants and transportation networks coupled with low inventories due to Just In Time manufacturing techniques coupled with unreliable power supplies are likely to disrupt manufacturing in assembly plants located all over the world. So the earthquake should have an adverse effect on many of the world’s economies.
    13 Mar 2011, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • (March 13, 2011) Japan now assumes 'possibility of a meltdown' at troubled reactors From: The Christian Science Monitor By: Mark Clayton

     

    Japanese authorities now list six reactors at two different nuclear power plants – Fukushima I and nearby Fukushima II – in a state of emergency. A total of 11 of the nation’s 54 reactors are shut down knocking out about 30 percent of Japan’s power.

     

    At a Sunday morning press briefing, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said experts were "assuming the possibility of a meltdown" at the No. 3 reactor at the Fukushima I plant, about 150 miles north of Tokyo, as well as at its No. 1 reactor.

     

    * Edano reports coolant levels at the No. 3 reactor dropped so that part of the fuel rods became exposed. tinyurl.com/62d9fla

     

    ---------------
    If the fuel rods were exposed, they melted, period. We are beyond using wishy-washy words such as "possibility".

     

    A partial meltdown has occurred. The only question left concerns whether the meltdown process is continuing. In order to stop this, they are injecting seawater and boron to help reduce the heat. This will result in increasing radiation leaving the plants since they must vent the steam and the hydrogen generated as fuel rods melt and react with the steam generating hydrogen. Hence the warning that another explosion could occur.

     

    I have the impression that the biggest news here is the lack of news. I can't find any information on the amount and types of radiation being detected outside the plant. They have detectors all around these plants, so that information is being suppressed.

     

    Suppression of critically important information removes the ability of individuals to make decisions. Is this suppression of information a cultural factor in Japanese society where individuality is not as valued as in US society?
    13 Mar 2011, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe their politicians have an aversion to "flat-out lies", unlike ours.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Mar 2011, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Not only is there a substantial lack of information, what information surfacing is conflicting.

     

    I've both heard on TV and read that either boron, or boric acid is being added to the seawater. We have the Japanese foreign minister stating that there is little radiation released. We have the minister of finance saying one or more meltdowns is likely. Apparently, one reactor is reported to be only two or three hours away from total meltdown. Then other reports say the seawater is effectively cooling the fuel rods.

     

    Today, we finally learned that a generator has arrived.

     

    There is speculation that reactor three at the Fukashimi site may have an hydrogen explosion like reactor one did.

     

    We have it best "guestimated" that 10,000 people have died, when entire towns with populations much larger have been swept away. With some of these towns only having a 5 to 10 minute warning?

     

    Things will eventually sort themselves out, I expect.

     

    Two other theories of grave concern have surfaced, and that is the aftershocks are moving south, closer to Tokyo. The next theory also raises concern because it posits that with the 9.0 earthquake being so large, the theory projects elsewhere around the Ring of Fire there will be another "counter balanced" large earthquake. A big one just happened in New Zealand.

     

    There has been no mention of the Shinmoedake Volcano erupting on Japan's southern-most island, Kyushu, back on February 1, indicating geologic concerns should have already been raised.

     

    What is being raised, though, is the levels of speculation, not facts.
    13 Mar 2011, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • The volcano is erupting again prompting evacuations.

     

    The northern half of Japans, from around tokyo, power grid is 50 HZ and the lower half is 60 HZ both 100 volts. The 50 hz half will be getting rolling 3.5 hour blackouts twice a day because they have so many reactors off line.
    13 Mar 2011, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Some Investment Ramblings:

     

    At 1,304 the SPX is just below its 50 day MA. It appears to be right on the lower Bollinger. It looks like the 100 day MA is just below 1260. Upper Bollinger is about 1,340.

     

    I set some stops on my more speculative stocks this morning (Sunday). There is too much going on...

     

    If I stop out of my more speculative stocks, I will probably hold on to the dry powder and go into vulture mode looking for bargins. My portfolio took a whipping last week, and I am licking my wounds.

     

    I think oil will be up on Monday... that might drive equities down as capital moves into oil.

     

    I would think oil tankers will go up because the Japanse are going to need to import a lot more oil until they get their nuclear reactors back on-line. Two of those reactors are NOT ever going to come back on-line because of the sea water injections. What would be the best tanker investment?

     

    I think Japanse investors are going to be moving a lot of capital on Monday... I don't know the ramifications of that... Where is it going to go?

     

    Japanse auto manufacturers should drop tomorrow since their production is going to decrease. Will that drive Ford (F) up?

     

    Sony should be down tomorrow for the same reason. What companies will benefit from that?
    13 Mar 2011, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Well, I got oil wrong... its going down based on anticipated lower demand... I guessed it would go up based on the need to offset the loss of generation capacity...

     

    I still like my reasoning on this one, but I missed the initial shock effect. I think that once the dust settles, Japan has to compensate for the permanent loss of generation capacity. Its permanent because once you pour seawater onto those reactors, the containment vessel is permanently damaged. So after an initial drop oil should start moving up again. The same for tankers... Its winter in Japan, oil and coal demand should increase.

     

    I got capital movement correct... Japan's construction stocks are going through the roof. I am thinking about investing in some of the big engineering firms... I would think (SHAW) is going to eat it, but what about (FLR and what about (CAT)? They are going to need a lot of construction equipment to rebuild. I think (CAT) is a buy here.

     

    I got automotive correct... I also got the supply chain disruption correct... That will disrupt manufacturing in a lot of countries...

     

    What concerns me is that lower demand issue... that might hurt rare earths.... Japan's demand for rare earth products should go down... as a result, investors might sell rare earth plays...

     

    Volcanos are going off... nuclear reactors are blowing up... could anything else be piled on here!!
    14 Mar 2011, 05:37 AM Reply Like
  • with or without a "No Fly" zone, the dicator will retain his power.

     

    Better logistics, armor, artillery and a well armed cohesive military force will assure this.

     

    Then we will find out what it means to meddle with another country's sovereignty regardless of circumstances.
    13 Mar 2011, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Daniel got back to base Sat. He was pretty rattled and exhausted because he did not sleep much, to many after shocks rattling the place keeping him awake and the ordeal of trying to get to the other air port 1 hour away by bus.

     

    NO bus however they brought in a train somehow and took everyone at the airport to the other airport for flights. When they told them to go to the train station they were told they had no idea when the train would come or if it would come but that was the only plan. Get to the train station and wait and see.

     

    Hopefully he can now get involved on one of the military assistance teams since he speaks Japanese and go back up to enjoy some more after shockes. Heheheh

     

    At least he wont be alone and on his own. I think he has avery unique perspective for understanding a little bit of what those people are going through too.
    13 Mar 2011, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Glad to hear Danel is safe. Terrific that he can help out.
    13 Mar 2011, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Glad to hear that he's good now. This will likely be a life-changing experience for him.

     

    Don't be surprised if next time you see him he seems different - maybe suddenly more grown up or something.

     

    There's something about being intimate with mass tragedies that has a long-term and deep-seated effect on many folks.

     

    I hope he continues to fare well.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Mar 2011, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Me too, guns. I bet you're real proud of Daniel, and you should be.
    13 Mar 2011, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • I wonder if this is how Atlantis disappeared and will these shocks trigger the expect Quake off the coast of Oregon/Washington which could trigger the Big Caldera at Yellowstone.
    13 Mar 2011, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Sheesh, as Guns pointed out, Shimnoedaki Volcano has resumed erupting. But now, a significant eruption is occurring in far eastern Russia:

     

    planetsave.com/2011/03.../

     

    That's not all either, an Indonesia volcano began erupting mere hours after the Japan quake:

     

    www.theweatherspace.co...

     

    This is getting to be beyond coincidence.
    13 Mar 2011, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • It's all connected. Disruption and relief of tectonic tension should send shock ways and changing tensions all around the "ring of fire".

     

    In those places that have pent up energy the shock waves may be enough to start the release.

     

    Add in the moon effect that you mentioned and we likely have an active period for a while longer.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Mar 2011, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • Further research reveals that Mt. Kilauea in Hawaii is emtting five times the normal lava, and 25 times the normal amount of Natural gas.

     

    news.blogs.cnn.com/201...

     

    On March 3, Santa Maria Volcano in Guatemala erupted, sending plumes up almost 11,000 feet:

     

    www.volcanolive.com/sa...
    13 Mar 2011, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • Correction: Mt. Kilauea is emitting 25 times the normal sulfur dioxide, not natural gas.
    13 Mar 2011, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Here's a round the world (extensive) list of earthquakes that have happened during this past week. Obviously, the list is trampled with Japan quakes.

     

    However scanning the list, I noticed quite a few have occurred in the Gulf of California and Hawaii.

     

    Arkansas keeps rumbling. Central America has had a few, too.

     

    Freya: Then we have that little one in Wyoming....

     

    earthquake.usgs.gov/ea...
    13 Mar 2011, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • MAYA

     

    Simply shocked at the amount of aftershocks that are occurred in Japan. Like HTL stated they are related. Are the worst over?? Are bigger ones on the way in the near future?? You simply cannot move the earths crust this much without OTHER problems down the road imo...

     

    ACE
    13 Mar 2011, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • Maya, I know you are no fan of Facebook, and usually, I am very suspicious of it, because of the lack of privacy etc.
    However, I reactivated my account over the weekend. I thought of a childhood friend that came from Japan and was my classmate when we were 9. After a few years, she went back to Japan, and we have not been in touch since she left the school district as an elementary school student.
    Anyway, I went on Facebook and sure enough, she has an account. She's OK. She wrote back right away. Amazingly, she remembered me.
    Thank you, Mark Zuckerberg.

     

    Peter Cooper's perspective is almost always different than mine! Here's his projection on what to expect:
    www.arabianmoney.net/u...

     

    I am looking at Bloomberg, and gold and silver are UP. US Dollar is UP.
    Most commodities are DOWN. Lumber is UP. Nat Gas is UP. Other energy is all DOWN.
    13 Mar 2011, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • OG: So kind that you reached out and the both of you were rewarded with a wonderful experience!

     

    After watching The Social Network, and seeing what happened in Egypt, and what's happening now in Japan, my views of Facebook have changed, and not reluctantly.

     

    Nikkei down 4.91%. Saw it down over 5% about a half hour ago.

     

    13 Mar 2011, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • Brain fried today working on deadline...
    13 Mar 2011, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • U.S. Detects Radiation 60 Miles From Stricken Plant From: The New York Times By: DAVID E. SANGER and MATTHEW L. WALD

     

    Pentagon officials reported Sunday that helicopters flying 60 miles from the plant picked up small amounts of radioactive particulates — still being analyzed, but presumed to include Cesium-137 and Iodine-121 — suggesting widening environmental contamination. tinyurl.com/6bg6eup
    13 Mar 2011, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • User: Best description yet of what is happening in the nuclear facilities...well worth a complete read.
    13 Mar 2011, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Lower98th!
    14 Mar 2011, 05:06 AM Reply Like
  • Second Fukashima reactor just blew up. Sigh.
    13 Mar 2011, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • DG

     

    Glad your son is safe, OG. Glad your friend is as well. Not lets pray these nuke reactors hold up and no other major problems become DISCOVERED later like we had after 9/11 in NYC with our firefighters and volunteers. My brother is a fireman who was down there consistently and we have some concerns about his health....

     

    ACE
    13 Mar 2011, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • Japanese news reporting third reactor, which is the #2 reactor, the rods are exposed. Guess it will blow next. They are talking about punching a hole in the roof to allow the hydrogen gas out and prevent another explosion.

     

    I am wondering who they will get to go in there and do that. Radiation is leaking from the other 2 reactors. Do they have a robot for that? Doubtful!!
    14 Mar 2011, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • cruise missile laser spot from helicopter should do it.
    14 Mar 2011, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • Chinas devastating quake a while back the Japanese sent extensive help. China sent 10 people to Japan. I would take that as an outright insult.
    14 Mar 2011, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • I am not justifying China's action (inaction) but they also had an earthquake last week, Near Mongolia. There was loss of life and a thousand buildings fell.
    14 Mar 2011, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks OG for putting some sense to this story. That might be where there search crews went. This news was from Japanese TV. My wife was furious!! Maybe that will calm her down.
    14 Mar 2011, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • (SHAW) down about 10.5% in the pre market...
    14 Mar 2011, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Forgot the CME report friday. Tsunamis, earthquakes, nuke plants, Daniel, maple syrup, just dont know how I forgot it.

     

    CME report 3/10/11

     

    Silver DOWN 705,207 ozs
    103,069,486 oz start
    102,364,279 oz finish

     

    Gold UP 30,565 ozs
    11,098,220 oz start
    11,128,785 oz finish
    14 Mar 2011, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Cameco CCJ and Dennison DNN are taking huge hits. Buy here, or will the nuclear disasters make them untouchable?
    14 Mar 2011, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • Tokyo Electric Power is down 23.5%....
    14 Mar 2011, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • I had thought I got lucky getting DNN on a fat finger discount price; not so lucky now. Forunately, I reduced my postion down to 300 shares; should have sold it all. DNN down 27.66% pre market.

     

    (PCX) idea working, somewhat.
    14 Mar 2011, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Black Swan?

     

    Rolling effects of Earthquakes, volcanoes and associated maladies, tsunamies, commercial air "No Fly" zones, Crop damage and a general shift of the entire planet.
    14 Mar 2011, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • Shaw Group is down over 25%. That's a buy.
    14 Mar 2011, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Bought (CAT)
    14 Mar 2011, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • www.foxbusiness.com/in.../
    14 Mar 2011, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Bought some BCOND for $2.29. Technicals say add more at $2.20. Have a programmed order in.
    14 Mar 2011, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • accumulating (CLD) and (PCX).... Pain with (LYSDY)
    14 Mar 2011, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • I'm liking your earlier suggestion AXPW more and more. Looks like one we have to be a patient with this year but could bring some impressive returns for the patient ones.
    15 Mar 2011, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • 4Real: (AXPW) We never know if some stock is going to work. You place your high beta bets here, and there. I'm all over this one. In a heavy way. For me.

     

    It's a place to "hide" some $s. And wait.
    15 Mar 2011, 01:26 AM Reply Like
  • Silver doesn't stay above $36 very long and it gets slapped back down.
    14 Mar 2011, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • I sold my PCX for a 2.59% gain. Yeah, the REE stocks are down. Ouchy!
    14 Mar 2011, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • (March 14) Japan nuclear plant: meltdown fears after explosion
    From: The Telegraph

     

    TEPCO said that more than 12 feet of the No.2 reactor's four-meter fuel rods were exposed to the air as of 8.07 pm (11.07AM GMT), before the pumping of seawater resumed in an attempt to cool them. tinyurl.com/4ox82oe
    ------------
    What's with the mixed units? 12 feet = 3.65 meters. So 91% of the fuel rods were exposed? This would certainly explain the second explosion... Hydrogen is generated as the result of rapid oxidation of Zircaloy fuel rod cladding by steam. Great amount of heat are generated during this chemical reaction... this is beginning to sound like a full core meltdown. If it happens, the next question is will the containment vessel hold?
    14 Mar 2011, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Looks like a "Day of Spanking" in my gamer account. Still riding it out. 401K can't be doing any better. Silver/gold holding in. Oil and REE's taking it the worst. Treasure boat is actually up.
    14 Mar 2011, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Sprott expects silver prices to soar over the next decade:
    www.theaureport.com/pu...
    14 Mar 2011, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • from the CPST website:
    Luxury Hotel Green Energy
    March 14 2011
    Four Seasons Hotel first Philadelphia business to install energy-efficient microturbines. To gain control of energy costs and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the luxurious Four Seasons Hotel Philadelphia installed three Capstone C65 ICHP MicroTurbines®. The natural gas microturbines are located on the roof of the five-star hotel. Within the first two months of operation, the hotel reduced its energy cost by more than US$80,000. The microturbines’ combined heat and power (CHP) technology allows the hotel to generate nearly 200kW of electric power, which fulfills 30% of the hotel’s overall electricity needs. Heat from the microturbines is used to heat water for laundry and other hotel operations. The energy-efficient CHP system provides 100% of the building’s day-to-day domestic hot water and satisfies 15% of its heating needs. The project is expected to reduce the hotel’s annual energy costs by 30%.
    14 Mar 2011, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Three years ago I enjoyed the best Chilean seabass I've ever had at the Philly 4 Seasons; in fact the best fish of any fish I have ever eaten anywhere.

     

    Added more GPL at $4.12.

     

    Added a smidge more of ATPG; touching bottom Bollinger Band. Even though another GOM permit was handed out, making things look more promising in the Gulf for ATPG, oil may be dropping back. Tough decision, that's why I added only a little bit.
    14 Mar 2011, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Looking for best advice from you guys/gals for play on Silver (physical, ETF, mining, specific silver trusts)
    What say you good people?
    14 Mar 2011, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • If you do not have any physical that would be my first buy. No, no, no on the ETF's or silver trusts. Don't trust them except possibly the Sprott asset management fund. Mining I am in GPL and I am in AGQ for a power play to create more FRN's to buy more physical or miners depending upon where it is in my accounts, 401K, general managed account or gamer account.

     

    These are just my opinions so take if for what its worth. I am still here blogging not a millionair yet so whats that tell you. DYODD
    14 Mar 2011, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): added to NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index

     

    3/21 is the add date. I expect price push dow so big players can enter, then buying pressure as institutuons that track the index buy.

     

    Then price re-trace.

     

    investorshub.advfn.com...

     

    HardToLove
    14 Mar 2011, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • (SPX) on a one year chart, SPX is close to touching the bottom Bollinger Band. SPX reading 1288.75 right now. Bollinger Band is 1287.89. We could feasibly see a bounce from 1287.89. William R% is reading negative 97.90, which normally would be a buy signal. At no time during the last year has the Williams R% read closer to negative 100, the optimum time to buy the market according to this indicator.

     

    But also, if we continue downward...watch the 1276.34 support level. If we get below that, we could be heading to 1257.88.
    14 Mar 2011, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Can the william R% reading go further negative than 100? I have never studied it. Just curious.
    14 Mar 2011, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Guns: No, the Williams R% only goes to negative 100. Intraday, this indicator is presently reading -57.14. Overall, this indicator has touched negative 100 eleven times so far today! Never seen that before. But I haven't scrutinized this indicator as often as I have/am doing today.

     

    We have again slightly slipped beneath the bottom Bollinger line. Walking a technical tightrope right now.

     

    14 Mar 2011, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Not good, even though slight. We just pushed through the SPX bottom Bollinger Band, hitting 1287.35. First time this has occurred since Thursday, May 20, 2010. On May 7, 2010 was the only other time. Again, using a one year chart.

     

    We have recouped slightly, to 1288.15. Technical alarm bells are a-ringing.
    14 Mar 2011, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • (UQM): I've been watching for a while and a couple of recent PRs caused a spike, so I didn't want to bring it up then. But now that it is falling back into normal trading ranges, I think it is worth looking at.

     

    They have a broad range of electric motors for a wide range of applications. But notable, for me, is the beginning of penetration into the EV market.

     

    Check the PR here.

     

    investorshub.advfn.com...

     

    Plus, they are used by Wrightspeed which recently got a grant to start up a plant for class 3-7 truck conversions and auto manufacturing. Wrightspeed also uses CPST.

     

    www.wrightspeed.com/

     

    I believe UQM will start to strengthen their performance over time and return good results. But it will take some time.

     

    I've not determined a target entry price - I'd like to get some feedback on better DD to combine with my tech looks.

     

    If anybody has some thoughts, I'd love to hear them.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Mar 2011, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • HTL: (CPST) Since early December, Capstone has been in an upward trend. We are in a fourth wave of the Bollinger Band widening and tightening. Kind of looks like marching Easter eggs going up hill. Each time the Bollinger Band has widened, the stock has leveled out, or dropped. Based on this, that the Bollinger band seems to be widening, the stock should pull back, but only slightly.

     

    The Simple Moving Average seems to be leveling out, and shows $1.55 as a buy in point. Everytime since early December, when the Simple Moving Average was touched or breached, the stock rose. This has occured 6 times. But remember, that was in a rising market.

     

    MA Envelope spread reads $1.59 to $1.51. MACD reads 0.10; not a good buy in point at the current price, again, on the one year chart.

     

    Keltner Channels shows $1.56 as the median price between the high range of $1.77, and the low being $1.34.

     

    William R% is - 31,96. Relative Strength Index reads 59.5; also not a good buy in point.

     

    Looks like $1.55 to $1.56 is a buy in point; again though, we have to track how the above mentioned S&P levels move.

     

    Hope this helps!
    14 Mar 2011, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): With my new experimental settings, I'm also looking for something below $1.60. Recent support and resistance, also supported by Fibonacci @ $1.54, seems to be @ $1.55/$1.56.

     

    But there's also a support trending from the low of 2.23 and touching the lows of 3/1, 3/2, 3/10 that, extended through today, is at ~$1.59 and rising ~2 cents/day. So that may prevent touching the 20 day SMA of ~$1.55 and rising ~1.2 cents/day right now.

     

    This *may* be one of the few cases where the SMA comes to pps rather than vice-versa.

     

    But I'm betting on manipulation to bring it to where the big players can get in. If that happens, we may get below those points. We already have a 11 cent spread today and the "normal" is 5-6 cents, so I think the manipulation is already underway.

     

    I don't know their target though.

     

    HaardToLove
    14 Mar 2011, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Does anybody know what, "Restriction started today," means? Does this mean the SEC 10% switch triggered?

     

    BCOND has this designation right now. Also, DNN has same restriction, as does Gamercy Capital (GKK).
    14 Mar 2011, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • HTL: Suggestion. Start tracking (KNDI); getting close to strong support at $3.48. I programmed a trade for $3.51. Trading down today 3.86%, down to $3.74. Recent high was $6.70 on December 20.

     

    This could be a pump and dumper; but even then ~ $3.00 is as low as it's been in a year.

     

    Not many China stocks I'd own, but this is one of them; (APWR), too, which I scoopped up a few shares earlier today. Please don't tell Joseph I now own three Asian stocks, Wonder Automotive (WATG) being the other one.
    14 Mar 2011, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • (KNDI): It's already on my radar for a look-see at $3.3x. Also keeping an eye for more (AXPW), which seems to be consolidating right now. Looks like it might even come back to $0.80 or so, depending on if it breaks down from consolidation.

     

    The 20 day SMA on it is $0.77 right now, but rising fast.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Mar 2011, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Maya,

     

    Your secret is safe with me.

     

    Sssshhhhh...
    14 Mar 2011, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • PS!!

     

    I'm out of almost all Chinese stocks right now but we own LOTS of Asian stocks -- & added to JOF and JEQ at today's lows!
    14 Mar 2011, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • The markets are being sensitive against any move to try to crash the markets. I think it is overblown. Although terrible, the fact is that there is little reason for Japan's quake to trigger a widespread market crash, especially since Friday didn't. Now is the time to see how the world can provide assistance not worry about protecting your economy from a shortage of Toyota cars.
    14 Mar 2011, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Moon: I just wonder what today would be like if it wasn't a POMO day. Good point about Friday, though.

     

    On the point of Japanese cars, I wonder how many were destroyed; a million? More? All of which have to be replaced?
    14 Mar 2011, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, triple is obviously out of pocket. Do you still have the codes necessary to put up a new quick chat? just an idea, because the comment stream is so long. I'm betting Triple wouldn't mind the interference!
    14 Mar 2011, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Yes I still have the codes. Let's wait till after market and see. He did put a new REE concentrator up earlier, so I think he might get it this evening.

     

    I'll PM him and see if he needs a hand.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Mar 2011, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    Hola! Every please prepare to disembark to the new QC...

     

    New QC, very tardy, every please move to the new QC...

     

    8888888888888888888888...
    14 Mar 2011, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Sorry to be so late with the new QC, experienced moderate to severe technical difficulties involving an Alabama "broadband" connection, but now working (albeit very sloooooowly)...

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    Everyone please move to the new Chat.
    14 Mar 2011, 06:52 PM Reply Like
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