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  • QC #255, March 13, 2013 339 comments
    Mar 13, 2013 2:54 PM

    QC #255, and who would have believed such a long running effort?

    Kudos to OG, and all those who built the foundation.

    And thanks to the patient and long suffering who have put up with my tardiness. Recently I have struggled, but I am hoping that things will improve going forward.

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Comments (339)
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  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    I demur...
    13 Mar 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Trip. I hope you're feeling better soon!

     

    Another MLP I stumbled onto yesterday is Pioneer Southwest Energy Partners (PSE). Pays a tad over 9% in yield. Seems others think the same as it's up 5.95% today, on comparitively really low volume.
    13 Mar 2013, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I was trying to figure out how to update something on my SA profile and stumbled into the Wayback Machine -- and saw an article I wrote back in Sept 09 titled "The Nine Best Natural Gas, Oil Pipelines for Income and Capital Gains."

     

    Man, those were $20 bills lying in the street just waiting to be picked up. I hope you've found a similar one here!
    13 Mar 2013, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Joseph: My best was Tech Cominco, now Teck Resources (TCK). Went up over a 1000% before I unloaded inorder to buy my home last year. It's down significantly since. So I got one right!

     

    Those $1.40 shares of Wachovia I bought have done pretty well, too.

     

    I'm considering selling LINE for around a 90% gain, and unloading MPC-A as a tax write off, then using the proceeds of both to buy some PSE. But that 6.13% PSE move up today has altered my plans. One of those, I shoulda done it yesterday, dagnabbit events.

     

    Next time you author up an article about MLPs and energy infrastructure, please give me a nudge!
    13 Mar 2013, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Maya-

     

    Just got some $PSE 22.5 October calls for $2.00.

     

    WT
    14 Mar 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    WT: Interesting! Thanks.
    14 Mar 2013, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Coming in at number 9 of the 50 hotest biotech companies for 2012-13 is Joules Unlimited. Just trying to keep this one on everyones radar.

     

    http://bit.ly/10HfJ67

     

    Neat list to review....
    13 Mar 2013, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    DG-
    Interesting list, populated with many of the "in crowd" Valero, BP, Waste Management, Petrobras even Boeing.

     

    Hmm....... A biofueled airplane?

     

    Thanks-

     

    WT
    13 Mar 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    Interesting read, dg. I'll let others make the big bucks if they hit the home runs with many of these firms. Me, I'm happy to keep advancing runners to home plate one base at a time via BP, HON, WM and the rest of the companies whose other businesses I like anyway!
    13 Mar 2013, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    CFTC Investigating London Gold, Silver Price Fixing For Manipulation.

     

    I assume they will find the same as everytime prior....nada!!! Must be setting up to pay out bonuses later for all the hard work they've done working on this issue. LOL with tears.

     

    Fox and hen house comes to mind. Some many foxes and so many hen houses.

     

    http://bit.ly/10HIHTo
    13 Mar 2013, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    Ain't nobody here but us chickens....

     

    http://bit.ly/10HWSbc
    13 Mar 2013, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    SMarturin, excellent!!!!
    13 Mar 2013, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Who do they think they are? The US FED?
    13 Mar 2013, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    What a shocker, more investigations into gold and silver manipulations. Could it be.....could it really be.......nahhhh its another head fake I am sure but I am still hoping.....probably foolishly.

     

    http://bit.ly/16v5OVl

     

    Fool me once....fool me how many times. Am I a f*&%ing idiot. This clip comes to mind although its about oil.

     

    http://bit.ly/Zr9PoJ
    14 Mar 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    FCC OKs T-Mobile and Metro PCS merger. http://bit.ly/13WAeAD
    13 Mar 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    $SLW Premarket 09:00, 14 March

     

    $30.23, Down 0.24, had been as low as $30.14
    14 Mar 2013, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Senator Corker introduces much needed legislation re: the GSEs. We will see if Congress has the back bone to throw away the GSE piggy bank they have come to rely upon: http://1.usa.gov/ZCkM5n
    14 Mar 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Mercy-
    As we know about the congress, once on- Never off.

     

    WT
    14 Mar 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    Question. Anyone familiar with economics of recycling recovery versus mining of platinum, palladium, etc.? A recent comment (3rd or 4th from last) on
    http://seekingalpha.co... prompts the question.
    14 Mar 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv-

     

    Here is a link that I found that may shed a little light on platinum.

     

    Palladium is most commonly used in combination with gold, silver and other stuff in dental work. I suppose those old fillings the doc grinds out are recovered somehow?

     

    http://bit.ly/ZCylSu

     

    It seems that this Canadian company is the premier Platinum recycler in the west

     

    $RMIAF (OTC)

     

    WT
    14 Mar 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    My understanding from reading in the past is that the biggest consumer of palladium was automotive catalytic converters.

     

    Here is an example: http://bit.ly/XaoAuw

     

    That market will only grow in size as emerging economies grow and become more pollution-conscious.

     

    Pd can easily be recycled from catalytic converters, but I doubt the recycling supply will keep up with worldwide demand for personal transport.
    14 Mar 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    WT, SM ... Thanks for the info.
    14 Mar 2013, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv

     

    North American Palladium is another mine op. In their guidance- (link attached) they state production cost per oz for 2012 was $401 while sales were $640 per oz. Margin of 239 an oz.

     

    http://bit.ly/XaxgB6

     

    Seems to be some confusion re: Platinum and Palladium. Palladium apparently is in the Platinum Metals Group (PGM) that leads people to interchange the two frequently.

     

    WT
    14 Mar 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    WT,

     

    In many industrial uses, Pt and Pd are so similar as to be interchangeable as catalysts. They are in the same column on the Periodic Chart and exhibit very similar electrochemical properties, although Pd has a lower melting point, is more chemically reactive to strong oxidants, and is less rare than Pt.

     

    Palladium is thus cheaper than platinum, so is often substituted (or used in combination) for it where it works as well. Platinum works better for diesel engine cats because it can catalyze reactions at the lower temperature and high sulfur environment of diesel exhaust without getting oxidized and gummed up with sulfates, compared to palladium.

     

    http://bit.ly/Z227iA
    14 Mar 2013, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    SM-

     

    Thanks for the clarification!
    So the converters used in cars use Palladium, not Platinum but Platinum is utilized where hi-sulphur gases are present?

     

    Boy, a lot of people are going to think less of their catalytic converters' worth. {:-)

     

    WT
    14 Mar 2013, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    D-INV-

     

    Got this on a $SAND board from a poster named
    newalker-
    "Also, I guess I should have clarified that a recycling company like POI may eventually be the only PPG investment option, if the superior economics of recycling make it unprofitable to mine for palladium and platinum. "

     

    Ressources Minires Pro-Or Inc. (CA) http://bit.ly/Z035Ma

     

    WT
    15 Mar 2013, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    This scenario CAN playout this way, short term, particularly in high cost mining environments (US, Canada, Europe, various kleptocracies). Platinum has not enjoyed anything like the run up we have seen for gold (although Paladium has had a very good run). Recyclers tend to be the last standing when extreme down spikes in pricing drive producers into mothballs.

     

    The problem is that this scenario no longer has the third world production costs to backstop really low (usually manipulated) down spikes in price. This means that such drops in high demand metals cannot be sustained. As soon as major producers enter mothballs, prices start to correct, and even in the case of manipulation, we just see the manipulators leap to the other side of the equation and push the prices up even further (resulting in an overshoot, for manipulators make their profits at the extremes rather than the sane middleground).

     

    Recycling is also entering a period of time where new green environmental controls are making life difficult (and recycling more expensive). This is a natural progression, with early adoption recyclers enjoying the support of government EPA regulators, but then feel the inevitable pressure to somehow accomplish both the recycling goal AND cut pollutants and health safety issues to zero. The NIMBY crowd grabs the microphone, the cycle swings 180 degrees, and the erstwhile allies resume their "normal" adversarial roles. We are well into the end game where environmental issues are demanding to have their recycling cake, and eat their zero pollution cake too.
    15 Mar 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    TB-

     

    Although I can't speak for accuracy this article in "The Gold Report" is educational on mining vs recycling the PGMs. Looks to be a real shortage looming.

     

    http://bit.ly/YyyNTU

     

    WT
    15 Mar 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    According to the below, Pd mining supply cannot keep up with global need, as Russia and South Africa supply most of the world markets, and Russia has been using up its stockpiles to meet those needs. If true, then recycling will remain a minor source of Pd, since its use as a catalyst in automobaubles and chemical industry will likely continue to grow worldwide.

     

    http://bit.ly/Xd0r6z
    15 Mar 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    I've mentioned this before, but it bears repeating: Be wary of supply and demand figures which have large percentages (of either/both) coming from recycling. This is common in some precious metal studies. Treating recycling as if it were a "stable and reliable source" for ANYTHING that resembles an asset class is potentially dangerous. Demand can skyrocket while at the same time killing recycling efforts (as those holding the metal elect to sit on it rather than convert it into fiat currency at the recycler). We are also seeing attempts to recycle infinitesimal quantities from increasingly high tech components (smart phones, for instance) where reversing the exotic elemental mixtures within the technology back to the constitutent raw materials is both extremely costly and politically (rather than economically) driven as a priority.

     

    And political agendas, sooner or later, answer to the basic laws of economics and gravity.

     

    My own idea is that commodity demand numbers should be studied with recycling demand deducted, and that commodity supply should be treated in the same fashion, WHEN looking to understand trends about future supply and demand balance. Then one could set the recycling numbers alongside, separately, and make some judgements.
    15 Mar 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    TB-

     

    You mean to tell me that the supply/demand levels of recycled commodities are subject to manipulation by those without scruples?

     

    Shades of Simplot and the Hunt brothers for sure.

     

    Good advice!

     

    WT
    15 Mar 2013, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17300) | Send Message
     
    The Chinese are coming to save us from ourselves - going to open a network of NG fueling stations along major highways.

     

    Maybe we should replace congress with the Chinese so we could get a decent energy policy?

     

    http://bit.ly/WJSMBN

     

    HardToLove
    14 Mar 2013, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    HTL-

     

    Why does this not surprise me? Boggles the mind. Since most of our convenience stores in my area are owned and operated by folks from the Middle-East I asked my regular store owner about the choices of fuel available. He said NG was used by 90% of the vehicles in the urban/suburban areas. Only those that needed to go to remote areas would use diesel or gasoline.

     

    I asked him if it was cheaper than gasoline and he laughed. Only the US uses the volume of gasoline that we do, he said. Other Mid-East countries support themselves with the oil sent to America. NG has been the major fuel of choice in Pakistan for over 30 years.

     

    Thanks, HTL

     

    WT
    14 Mar 2013, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Taxi cabs in Japan use NG too. After earth quake it was a plus too!!

     

    http://bit.ly/ZL9NYO
    14 Mar 2013, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    For those interested in whats going on in fukushima. Click on the cc at the bottom of the video to get english sub titles. This is a story about a guy living there by himself in the radiation taking care of his animals.

     

    http://bit.ly/Xb4z74
    14 Mar 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Is your son still in Japan Guns?
    15 Mar 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Yea he is still there. My wife and other son are there for vacation right now too. He might be leaving soon for training and a new MOS 0211 (military occupational specialty) with his reenlistment coming up. He has passed the tests and interviews now he needs to travel down to okinawa to train in that field before he goes to school.
    15 Mar 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    0211... does he also speak a foreign language?
    15 Mar 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    DG-
    One powerful and shockingly stunning video. How quickly the rest of the world forgot about what took place there. I wonder what eventually happened to those that did evacuate.

     

    WT
    15 Mar 2013, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5332) | Send Message
     
    Did you know the people in Okinawa are the longest living on Earth?

     

    http://bbc.in/12Ww10c
    15 Mar 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Fluent in English and japanese, and he is somewhat conversational in german, russian and spanish. He blew the language test out of the water so I guess that means he can learn languages very quickly. He is excited and thankfully his mom has no idea what he will be doing. It would scare the hell out of her.
    15 Mar 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Where is Jon Springer?
    15 Mar 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17300) | Send Message
     
    FPA: Last I spoke with him, still has some health issues. I sent an e-mail to see if I can get an update.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Mar 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Maybe he's been out-of-pocket buying real estate like I have been. :))
    15 Mar 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    I hope he knows he is missed here.
    15 Mar 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17300) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin: Last I communicated I made sure to mention that folks were asking about him.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Mar 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    I shot Springer a text last week: No response. Unusual.
    15 Mar 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    "I shot Springer....... No Response. Unusual.

     

    If you shot him he may be dead. There would be no response.
    15 Mar 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    I know he and his family are heading for Sri Lanka for an extended business/vacation soon. Maybe he moved it up?

     

    WT
    15 Mar 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Dow Theory states secular bull market is on. The below link just popped up from SA member New Low Observer, and stems from his article dated November 10, 2010, yes, not a typo, 2010.

     

    Today, New Low Observer provided an updated link in this very dated thread (the 1st link takes you back to the 2010 article. The 2nd link takes you to today's new Dow Theory secular bull article, with some great viewpoints and charts provided).

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    http://bit.ly/XaB5Gk

     

    ####

     

    It was tickle me timbers fun to read my 2010 comment (at the bottom of the first provided link), written 2 and 1/2 years ago, which was pretty much dead on accurate about how the market would behave six months going forward, way back in 2010, and actually be right! ;-)

     

    This newest link reinforces (to me) that we're heading to DOW 16,000.
    15 Mar 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Yup... don't fight the Fed.
    15 Mar 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1907) | Send Message
     
    I am having trouble following his thoughts in the second link you provided that goes to his website. On the one hand he seems to be indicating we are in a secular bull-market and we should be going higher but on the other hand the volume has been in decline since 2009 and therefore does not support the DOW theory that we are in a secular bull and this is a negative meaning we will be going down.

     

    Are we going higher or lower, could you try to spell it out what he is getting at here? Thanks
    15 Mar 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Jak-
    I agree with your reading of his explanation. Without that volume there is no secular bull signal, quite to the contrary it is a 'no-confidence' signal.

     

    There is no real buying except for the Bernanke Bucks supporting the market when it looks shaky. I am unsure as to how long that can continue.

     

    My gut tells me that they will try to continue poring it on until the market becomes a self fulfilling prophecy to energizing the economy instead of the other way around. Might work- Certainly might not. Akin to leading the non drinking horse to water.

     

    All the real support indications of a healthy, or soon to be healthy economy just are not there.

     

    The Labor Participation Rate is going the wrong way. Without consumer support there is no increase in retail. Economic confidence is improved but still well below the February high water mark.
    Europe has one foot on the proverbial banana peel once again and there is no borrowing in spite of the available money.

     

    WT
    15 Mar 2013, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Jak and WT: I'll agree with you guys on the subject of low volume, from a historical perspective. However, if an investor was and still is concerned about low volume, then they would have missed out on getting back to even, or THE investing opportunity of a lifetime.

     

    I also disregard employment data, and have since the 09' March bottom. The rules of tracking unemployment are opaque as pea soup. The underground economy in the US is alive and thriving, despite one in seven on food stamps, medical bills and education costs soaring (yes, down the road I do worry...very much so).

     

    Conversely, when volume picks up, is when I'll start worrying about how we've achieved a top. When a bottom is in, the astute, opportunistic investors began coming back into the market. That's done. Now we're into the phase of sector rotation and institutions driving the markets. Right now we're seeing sector rotation out of bonds and into finance and high yielders. The third phase is when the retailers get in, speculate and bubble up the market. In my opinion, we're in the very early stages of this phase.

     

    Further, I'm not sure how volume is an actual indicator, because Dow Theory is over 100 years old, and Mr. Dow never could have foreseen the amount of QE going on today.

     

    I may be out on an island in this thread with the way I'm thinking, but what has stopped the market's four year long surge? Europe? Nope. Debt ceiling fears? Nope. Unemployment? Nope. Fiscal cliff? Nope. The Middle East, Egypt, Lybia, Syria, Iraq, war in Afghanistan? Nope. The China real estate bubble? Nope.

     

    None of these plus more has stopped this FED driven market. This latest DOW Theory article is only one more confirmation for me that the market will through fits and starts, keep rallying higher.
    15 Mar 2013, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5332) | Send Message
     
    "I am unsure as to how long that can continue."

     

    It will continue until a macro event changes either the amount of FRN in the system to bid up equity assets, or some fiscal policy directs those notes else where forcing them to bid up assets other than equities.

     

    So, less FRN means BB makes yet another mistake of thinking he needs to reign the notes in because either the economy can stand on its own or he is afraid of inflation. His conventional training doesn't let him understand either of these factors, so we have to be ready when we see him telegraphing he is about to make one of these mistakes.

     

    There are two things on tap that will do this with another minor factor on tap that could cause this effect as well. Obamacare and Dodd Frank are the two major changes that will direct notes away from equities. Both of these are just tax increases via fiscal policy in the form of regulations. Taxes direct FRN away from equities, and when there are less FRN to bid up equities, guess what will happen to the price of equities?

     

    Obamacare is going to increase the cost of health care. First it will be a subsidy for people to purchase health care. This will cause inflation for health care, and pull notes away from equities. Next Obamacare is going to cause less healthcare to be available. This means job losses. That means risk off and that will direct FRN into bonds and away from equities.

     

    Dodd Frank is basically taxation on credit. It is basically higher fixed costs for extending credit, and as such that means less credit. Now think about that, when the Fed raises the FF rate, it does it to lower credit. So taxing credit will mean less credit, so fiscal policy is basically lowering credit the same way the Fed would. Less credit means less consumer spending, and presto, risk off. You have less Fed notes chasing equities and FRN move back to bonds.

     

    A slight relationship to Dodd Frank is declining personal income. Consumer spending has been OK for the first part of 2013, but as people are starting to feel the pinch from higher gas prices and the increased payroll tax, consumer spending could really tail off. If it does, again, like Dodd Frank causing less credit and less consumer spending, the payroll tax will cause less consumer spending, and yet again, presto, risk off. FRN chase bonds and not equities.

     

    Now, I don't really see lower consumer spending having enough of an effect to cause risk off in 2013. The perfect storm is shaping up for 2014 when all these things are happening at the same time. Still though, Dodd Frank and Obamacare don't just happen all at once. They get phased in, and like the proverbial frog in the pot of water slowly being heated, the breaking point just evolves and then suddenly it hits and the frog is boiled.

     

    So what I see for 2013 is FRN bidding up equities to 1600+ and the 10yr getting to about 2.30 (maybe). 2014 could see us get to 1650 on the S&P and maybe 2.30 is solid (Europe could scare capital into treasuries - so maybe we don't get to the 2.30).

     

    This is what I call analyzing the subsidy mix. As long as fiscal policy doesn't really hurt asset creation, aggessive Fed note creation will create more notes than assets. That means inflation somewhere. If unemployment is low, people will tend to bid up consumables (CPI assets). If unemployment is high, people will be afraid, and they will bid up saving assets like equities. Bidding up savings assets is where we are now. Fiscal policy is about to pop that bubble, but it doesn't seem like it will be 2013, and there is a chance it won't be 2014 (it will depend on how fast Ocare and DF take hold). Then when it pops, the question will be, "Can the Fed ramp up note creation sufficiently to offset fiscal policy and get equities bid back up again?"

     

    If you can time that, what you would want to do is move to bonds, and then when rates fall due to risk off, you will have big gains. Take those gains, when it appears BB is going to increase QE, move to cash, and then start buying equities at the bottom. Then when they rise, start looking to rinse, repeat, etc.
    15 Mar 2013, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Hoops: Good points. And...S&P 1600 and DOW 16,000 will likely happen within weeks of each other. I don't expect to have to raise cash in a big way until then. Around then I will re-evaluate, because we could be going even higher.

     

    It's all about the FED.
    15 Mar 2013, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1907) | Send Message
     
    Thanks guys. Here is my take and a few data points I have been putting more weight on than things like unemployment.

     

    Consumer sentiment index is still very low and just trended unexpectedly down on Friday to 70.8. In the late 90's it was averaging in the high 90's to 100's, in 2007 it was in the high 80's to 90's, and at the beginning of the large secular bull in the early '80's it was in the 90's, and now it can't get out of the 70's. I will be looking for consumer sentiment to hit the upper 80's and break 90 at least once before I think we will be getting into a real new bull market where earnings can keep up with the markets price appreciation.

     

    Companies guidance have all been pointing lower for the year. The FED can push prices artificially higher but if it doesn't push consumer sentiment up (which is the purpose of inflating the market) then earnings will be lagging as Walmart and Target have indicated by their guidance.

     

    consumer spending -- the two biggest points of inflation are energy and food -- the necessities of life, yet these are the two points of inflation they say to not consider because of their volatility. In the retail sales numbers that were "good" this week their was a rise of 1.1%, gas stations took half that and supermarket, home improvement and autos (low interest) were the rest, while home furnishings, department stores, sports stores, bars and restaurants all saw declines -- so people are spending their money on gas and groceries to eat at home and not going out.

     

    Small business -- the new healthcare law and increase in taxes will continue to weigh on small business.

     

    Things might get hairy when investors begin seeing evidence that the Feds $85 billion might be able to inflate the market but it won't work in turning the psychology of the consumer to convince them everything is ok and thereby spend to make earnings match where the market is at. Consumer spending is 2/3rds of our economy, if that doesn't turn I don't see how a bull market can sustain itself regardless of free money. I am still watching though and if consumers behavior does change and if it does show serious improvements I will move into a more bullish position. All that being said things always go higher than you expect and they aways seem to go lower than you expect, so I am not ruling out an irrational continuation of the irrational.
    16 Mar 2013, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Nice comment jakurtz. Market run-up and actual economy improvements are not necessarily relate, IMO.

     

    I have been assuming the ( kind of recent) increase in equity prices was driven by money pulled from CDs and bond funds and pushed into supposedly stable equity dividend payers. Are your findings consistent with that idea?
    17 Mar 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1907) | Send Message
     
    I think that sounds about right. People who are realizing their money is not doing anything in savings or in a money market fund are hearing the noise that things are really improving and handing off their money to institutions to invest it. The instituions like fidelity and schwab etc. have to do something with their clients money and into the market it goes. In addition, who knows what the banks are doing to help push the wealth effect with higher markets.

     

    This is a really good 43 year chart with the three major data points of the economy along with the S&P's performance: Consumer sentiment index, durable goods orders and retail sales (it does not have the most recent CS index of 70.8 plotted). In the middle of '82 when all three were clearly trending up it was the beginning of the secular bull. We had a bounce of them trending up immediately after the crisis in 2010 and the market expectedly bounced back to more normal levels. Today though all three are trending back down and have been for some time, yet the dow and S&P are hitting new highs. From what I see in the chart for 43 years if the CSI is in the 70's there is little engine power to the economy or the market.

     

    http://bit.ly/YkGFGx

     

    The indicators can turn up but I don't see a lot of reason to be fearful we will miss out on major gains if we don't get in now, or that we will never see 14k-14,500 levels at some point in the future if it does go slightly higher now. From what I have read about the early 80's and even the mid-to-late 90's people were overall more optimistic about the future, to me I am not seeing a lot of jubilance over the prospects of fall 2013.
    17 Mar 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1907) | Send Message
     
    >SHB, this in a WSJ article just today

     

    "For individual investors, the lights seem to be flashing green. Mutual funds specializing in U.S. stocks—excluding exchange traded funds—took in roughly $3 billion, according to Lipper Inc. That marked the 10th straight week of inflows."
    17 Mar 2013, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, jakurtz.

     

    The more the markets climb these days, the more I sell and move to "cash". I need to start buying some physical PMs with my zero interest MM deposits. They will most likely drop in the near future, but 2-3 years out I expect the then obvious inflation will raise the PM prices.

     

    Your money and property are at risk when the guvmint believes it knows how to "manage" an economy. The EZ is a glowing example. Will the US citizens notice it and demand we do something else?
    18 Mar 2013, 02:28 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    SHB: US citizens just voted resoundingly their faith in a government managed economic future.

     

    All investments must include this new normal, whether we agree with the logic or not.

     

    I still anticipate a dramatic episode of "grand theft precious metals" featuring a brief but fierce market down spike well below average production costs (in other words, below $1200 or so, perhaps even $1100), followed by an equally steep and fiercely chased up spike. I would not be surprised to see the year's low and high marks struck VERY close to one another.

     

    In the wake of these events, no one should be shocked to see news that huge quantities were purchased at the low points by nation states and major banks...
    19 Mar 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    I read the November election results a bit differently, TB.

     

    Romney really damaged his campaign with the "47% don't matter" remark but was recovering from that faux pas until he sat and smiled at Obama in the foreign policy debate after roundly criticizing Obama's policies toward Israel, Iran, etc. on the campaign trail. That was an incredibly stupid debate performance, serving only to reinforce perceptions of "flip-flop" Romney.

     

    Republicans lost some tight Senate races, but they gave away a few as well with candidate picks such as Todd Akin in Missouri. I take capture of 6.1% of votes cast by the Libertarian candidate in that race as a very positive indicator for the future.

     

    Republicans retained a majority in the House after campaigning on smaller government and reducing public debt.

     

    A semblance of checks and balances was retained and Libertarians polled higher in many places than ever before.

     

    On precious metals prices -- that is quite an outlook. Since you anticipate it, I infer you assign a probability of greater than 50%?
    19 Mar 2013, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Had Romney won (ie, had enough of the millions of hard right Republicans chosen to hold their noses and vote for him, instead of simply not voting at all), my comment would need very little modification, if any. The Republican electorate made their wishes regarding a Federalized economy known during the primary, when the candidate of the herd who was least likely to drastically revamp the tax system was the resounding choice.

     

    As a libertarian I view the differences between, say, a Bush and a Clinton as much narrower than many observers. I am not saying that there are NO differences, just that they are not very impressive.

     

    I have used this analogy before, and at the risk of repetition (those who have seen it before, avert your eyes please):

     

    Both the Demicans and the Republicrats have devoted over a century to building the Federal government train, and laying track to the same destination. And both groups would sell their souls to get to drive the train. The most notable difference between the two is that the Democrats drive slightly faster than the Republicans.
    19 Mar 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    As for the PM concept (I don't think of it as a prediction, its conditional on all sorts of geopolitical maneuvers and currency wars driving events in a certain direction), I think it will either happen within the next 2 years, or not at all. I do think its likely, but that it will be so transitory that for those who hold physical, it will blow by them with little effect...

     

    Whereas those who dabble in the equity markets for PM companies, particularly ETFs (paper gold), will see their stops taken out well below their face value point, and their pockets picked. Even larger investors who try to get out on the steep downslope and buy back in before the spike reverses are likely to see a large loss.

     

    It would be to the PM markets what the Flash Crash was to the equity markets.
    19 Mar 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Can I get an Amen here.......AMEN!!!
    19 Mar 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    has anyone checked out the commet Pan- STARRS? In the western sky low at sunset.

     

    http://onforb.es/XdyMT1
    15 Mar 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17300) | Send Message
     
    Jon Springer reports that he's progressing and even had a couple days of feeling decent in the last few weeks. Unsure how long till he's fully back in the saddle, but he sounded hopeful - a bit more so than last time I checked with him.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Mar 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for that report, HTL. Been wondering about Jon.
    15 Mar 2013, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    Hmm,
    MF Global BK plan. http://yhoo.it/141KsQ6
    Where is Jon Corzine?
    15 Mar 2013, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    The ex democratic senator / ex democratic governor? Well, certainly not in jail.
    15 Mar 2013, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Corzine is probably enjoying the good life positioned so as to be totally insulated from any retribution from the powers that be- Unless, of course the wrong people took it on the chin. Then I wouldn't want to be him.

     

    "Unsecured creditors of the MF Global parent are projected to recover between 13.4 cents and 39 cents on the dollar, while creditors of its finance unit will receive between 14.7 cents and 34 cents on the dollar."

     

    No economies of scale working on your behalf there.

     

    WT
    16 Mar 2013, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    This is 30 minutes, well spent, imo:
    http://bit.ly/XPA6z7

     

    TB, I hope you are well. If you need a rest from the QC let me know.
    Miss Mercy, are you still in FLY? Lovely chart: http://yhoo.it/158JEEQ;
    BBT got a yank on the collar from the Fed the other day.
    16 Mar 2013, 02:22 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    Well worth the time. Thanks OG.
    16 Mar 2013, 03:14 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    OG that was a great panel discussion, thanks for sharing. It is easy to forget that as the market hits new highs the resource sector has not participated equally.

     

    RE: FLY -- I rode it up and cashed in. In this market any quality high yielders which fly high on price I pass through my "shall I book gains now sifter." If my gains are equal to 2-3 years of the current dividend payments I tend to book the gains -- as long as I think I will see a dip in that time period to add back a position. Sounds pretty elementary but it is working for me -- when my long term faith in the markets is pretty shaky.

     

    This market is making me queezy with its infinite euphoria -- relatively low volumes -- and disregard for any bad news as Maya and WT have been pointing out. I have been distracted from the market by some personal real estate transactions -- but I am also keeping my few positions on a very short leash.
    mj
    16 Mar 2013, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Without taking a position on this piece I offer it up as one that may deserve reflection.

     

    http://bit.ly/ZeWZuL

     

    WT
    16 Mar 2013, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Good piece WT. Eric Parnell's perspective is one I very much respect -- and this write-up is a good example of the quality of his thinking.
    mj
    16 Mar 2013, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Joe Stuber offers this analysis 3/15.

     

    http://bit.ly/12Zbg40

     

    What to do? what to do?

     

    WT
    16 Mar 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Put in the bank where it's safe?

     

    Not A bank in Cypress, I'm afraid.

     

    http://bit.ly/ZZQ4Xu
    16 Mar 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17300) | Send Message
     
    WWT: You might find FPA's Eurozone instablog interesting. His latest comment there touches on the same topic.

     

    http://bit.ly/YiCs68

     

    HardToLove
    16 Mar 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    HTL-

     

    Thanks for that link.
    Looks like FPA got the same news that I did about the Cypress deposit tax.
    His concentrator is very thorough and the comments are on point.
    No political dissing either.
    I think I have to follow this one also-
    Oh well, sleep is overrated anyway-

     

    WT
    16 Mar 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    Deutsche Bank on Eurozone

     

    http://natpo.st/143z3iX
    16 Mar 2013, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    There could be a market drop on Monday associated with the Cyprus affair. I provided an estimate of the the effect size in the Stability Of The European Union concentrator. Gold and Silver also might also experience a pop on Monday.
    16 Mar 2013, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    I found this amusing

     

    http://bit.ly/YzuJQa
    16 Mar 2013, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    hmmph. you would. ;)
    17 Mar 2013, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5332) | Send Message
     
    Its part of the "Ridicule" tactic. I believe Alinsky had this as rule #5 in rules for radicals. You saw a similar approach in Europe, where a "commoner" in Europe would be willing to live the life of a peasant, as long as he could feel that at least he was an Englishman and not a Frenchman or worse a colonist or even worse an irrational person from Africa. Its a trick to get people to support tyranny by convincing them they are part of the intellectual elite by doing so, even though they wind up living under the tyranny themselves as their healthcare gets taken away, their job goes away, their travel gets restricted, who they can associate with gets limited, etc. As long as they have someone else to ridicule, they are happy to have their standard of living reduced. There's not talking to such people. They are fanatics who believe compromise is everyone giving up what they believe in. They are people who believe that a debate is everyone agreeing with what they say, and if you don't, then the insults start flying as part of the ridicule tactic.

     

    Looks like John Edwards was right. There are two Americas, but its not the two parts he was talking about. It is divided between the Voluntarists and the Coercives, and you see the Coercives working very hard to divide America even more. Its probably time to go ahead and let this happen. They can have their "no property" utopia, where everyone can steal from anyone under the auspices of coercion. And the Voluntarists can have their society where all human interaction is voluntary, and people are free to trade with whomever they want. The outcome will be predictable.

     

    This

     

    http://bit.ly/X5QcTf

     

    leads to this

     

    http://bit.ly/XUvuD8

     

    which leads to this

     

    http://bit.ly/YKTfQb
    17 Mar 2013, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    Its part of the "Ridicule" tactic. I believe Alinsky had this as rule #5 in rules for radicals.

     

    Really? Are you claiming that this blogger is part of the giant scheme?

     

    There's not (no?) talking to such people.
    Pot, meet kettle...
    17 Mar 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5332) | Send Message
     
    See what I mean. They want to ridicule without being challenged. This guy posts something that is clearly meant to be demeaning, and then he gets upset when he gets challenged on it. There is clearly no talking to these fanatics.
    17 Mar 2013, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    jpau-

     

    Very clever-
    I only got two correct, though.

     

    WT
    17 Mar 2013, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Another piece by Eric Parnell - CYPRESS
    posted on his website today. Explains the effect on the rest.

     

    http://bit.ly/15iDan6

     

    WT
    18 Mar 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    Solar panel maker Suntech defaults on $541M payment

     

    http://cbsn.ws/WzUfcP

     

    "BEIJING Suntech, one of the world's biggest solar panel manufacturers, said Monday it has defaulted on a $541 million bond payment in the latest sign of the financial squeeze on the struggling global solar industry.

     

    Suntech Power Holdings' announcement was a severe setback for a company lauded by China's Communist government as a leader of efforts to make the country a center of the renewable energy industry...."
    18 Mar 2013, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17300) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): Capstone Receives Orders Totaling 5MW from Distributor in Mexico for Key CHP and CCHP Projects

     

    http://bit.ly/WCeWER

     

    HardToLove
    19 Mar 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I see that 5 of the 6 analysts following Capstone rated it a strong buy last month, but no reports yet this month. This stacks up with their overall 2.2 (underwhelming) rating, essentially about a "hold". For a long time I have looked for them to lock in above $1 and start grinding toward $2...

     

    I continue to watch, maybe 2013 will be their year yet.
    19 Mar 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Alleged chemical attack kills 25 in northern Syria

     

    (Reuters) - Syria's government and rebels accused each other of launching a deadly chemical attack near the northern city of Aleppo on Tuesday in what would, if confirmed, be the first use of such weapons in the two-year-old conflict. http://tinyurl.com/bmw...
    19 Mar 2013, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Odds are good that either or both sides would do this... And even better that whoever tried to launch the attack screwed up and hit themselves or the wrong target anyway.
    19 Mar 2013, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    It could be a false flag to get US into this mess. Copper colander chin strap on tight whilst glowing brilliantly.
    19 Mar 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    How can there be (predicted) 14% corp earnings growth in 2013 with 1-2% real GDP growth? No surprises for those who have been paying attention :-)

     

    A Rick Santelli interview. Quick and very interesting.

     

    http://bit.ly/10O6Ag1
    19 Mar 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    SH-

     

    Tip O'Niel used to call that "Voodoo Economics"

     

    Say it enough times and you start believing it yourself.

     

    WT
    19 Mar 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    The minister in charge of battling tax fraud in France has just resigned because he had a ‘secret’ Swiss account.
    19 Mar 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    Hard to blame that on TurboTax.
    19 Mar 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    I got a good laugh on that Doc... thanks.
    19 Mar 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    I was wearing the wrong glasses the first time I read your post, FPA, and thought it said "baffling" tax fraud...

     

    Maybe I was right all along.

     

    Its a legendary line of jokes now, but maybe the French really DID invent the concept of setting foxes to guard their henhouses.
    19 Mar 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    The fox will guard his food supply from other predators. Only a few chickens this week need pay....with life and limb. The others can wait till next week!!!
    19 Mar 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    I like your 'baffling' wording better than mine :)
    19 Mar 2013, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Re: fox and hen house
    guns, best analogy I've seen so far!
    20 Mar 2013, 03:37 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    A picture is indeed worth a thousand words. Take a look at this one and then tell me how much comfort you take in the FDIC's reminder that "insured depositors are safe and their deposits are protected by a strong FDIC fund....The FDIC insurance fund has over $25 billion in reserves ..." http://bit.ly/WBFO6P
    20 Mar 2013, 06:24 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    Financial porn.

     

    That derivatives column is positively priapic.

     

    Obscene!
    20 Mar 2013, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    In the end these promises all come from government. In the case of any government in the EZ, its a promise backed by a committee which may or may not feel like backing one of its members in trouble. Countries that have their own currency at least avoid this problem, but then you are right back to trusting government...
    20 Mar 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    MJ-

     

    But the FDIC is a government agency and the government never lies. If there was a run on the US banks BB would just print a $trillion and all will be well.

     

    Now I'm going to get some more soma.

     

    WT
    20 Mar 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    SM, I had to look priapic up and of course with the wife gone now approaching 3 weeks it seems to apply with more than derivatives right now.....at least for me. LOL in pain.
    20 Mar 2013, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    Loaded and cocked with no targets in sight. Ouch.

     

    (Mercy, forgive us our crudity.)
    20 Mar 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    "insured depositors are safe and their deposits are protected by a strong FDIC fund"

     

    Safe and protected, strong F Dic fund......hmmmm

     

    A prophylactic with holes comes to mind..... jeeze I can't quit....sorry folks..(slinking away, head bowed, well at least one of them)
    20 Mar 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin, appreciate the apology -- but the thread was started by a "lowly physician" so I read it as a description of a medical condition.
    21 Mar 2013, 05:50 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    I read it as a mental one. ;)
    21 Mar 2013, 05:58 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    I plead Guilty. On both counts.
    21 Mar 2013, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    "Now I'm going to get some more soma."

     

    I got two PMs asking about soma-

     

    Soma was a feel good drug in Aldous Huxley's 'BRAVE NEW WORLD' written in the 30's about a Utopian society.
    Take soma and all will be well.

     

    Required reading in the day-

     

    http://bit.ly/100pLOE

     

    WT
    20 Mar 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5332) | Send Message
     
    and their deposits are protected by a strong FDIC fund"

     

    Current reserve ratio is .35%. The target is 2.0%

     

    http://1.usa.gov/13cg0n4

     

    That's like a bank needing a Tier 1 of 2% and only having .35. Its been estimated that it might take 25 years for the FDIC to reach its target of 2%. The estimate I saw was a few years ago, so maybe it is less now. The point is, the FDIC just isn't earning enought to offset losses to get the ratio up very quickly.
    20 Mar 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17300) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): Capstone Turbine Corporation 25th Annual Roth Conference March 2013

     

    PDF 28 pages.

     

    http://bit.ly/WIE50W

     

    Motley Fool with a better-than usual discussion.

     

    http://bit.ly/100rhAs

     

    HardToLove
    20 Mar 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    And the FED reaffirms QE to continue unchanged...
    http://tinyurl.com/bvk...
    20 Mar 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >HTL

     

    Neat article from Motley especially the lone (so far) comment at the end explaining the near future's finances.

     

    Thanks-

     

    WT
    20 Mar 2013, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Graphene may be the next big investment idea. Keep it on your radars folks it will make a lot of money for someone.

     

    http://ind.pn/WISjid
    20 Mar 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    DG --graphene was a hot subject about a year ago. Before that it was rees and before that it was tantalum and before that it was yellow cake and then thorium as a substitute for uranium and before that it was ceramics that would replace platinum and palladium in catalytic converters. And, almost all of it, one way or another, falls under the larger umbrella of nanotechnology. (Which is my silly joke-contrasting a tiny nano with a large, protective umbrella).
    Some of the big publications are featuring teasers on graphene again. They're just recycling old ads. I might have the order of "the latest hot new thing" wrong, but you get the idea!
    20 Mar 2013, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    DG- Re Graphene:
    http://bit.ly/Y0SuFg
    21 Mar 2013, 04:35 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >OG-

     

    Thanks for the background check on Graphene- Looks like it needs a little more seasoning.

     

    I did find the site Stock Gumshoe of interest.

     

    WT
    21 Mar 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Thanks OG for keeping us on firm ground. I have spent too much time in the swamps.
    21 Mar 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5332) | Send Message
     
    "1. The Fed did acknowledge a pick-up in the economy, but stressed that it is to a sub-par rate of growth.
    2. There was no talk of the special study on the risk of a big balance sheet.
    3. There was no hint of winding down (tapering) QE.
    4. There was no talk of overseas risks.
    5. Esther George dissented, but it was a widely anticipated dissent."
    20 Mar 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5332) | Send Message
     
    From my daily email blurbs:

     

    Prior to the meeting, the FOMC was expected to take any or all of the following actions:

     

    o Make few changes in their statement wording or rate guidance (THEY DID THIS)

     

    o Defend their efforts to stimulate the US economy through QE3 and 3.5 (THEY DID THIS)

     

    o Reiterate low rates through mid 2015 (THEY DID THIS)

     

    o Pause and take stock of the effects of QE3 and QE 3.5 (THEY DID THIS)

     

    o Re-iterate specific economic thresholds to the timing of rate increases rather than calendar projections. (THEY DID THIS)

     

    o Re-iterate those targets – unemployment below 6.5% and inflation above 2% designated as triggers for policy tightening. (THEY DID THIS)

     

    o Signal timing for the termination of the asset purchase program under QE3 (THEY DID NOT DO THIS)

     

    o Possibly cut the 25bp bank reserve rate (THEY DID NOT DO THIS)

     

    o Possibly change the discount window terms (THEY DID NOT DO THIS)
    21 Mar 2013, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Hoop-

     

    This makes it easier to envision the thinking and direction of the money club.

     

    WT
    21 Mar 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5332) | Send Message
     
    The ones that meant the most to me, where the ones they did not do.
    21 Mar 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    I agree that those last 3 items were:

     

    1. Predictable, ie, that they would NOT do those things just yet

     

    2. Things which must be monitored closely

     

    3. Action items which, when they finally DO happen (and I believe they will, eventually) will create massive and far-reaching waves
    21 Mar 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Those last three items are the "Cyprus" stealth theft tools needed to keep bailing out the banks. The are not taking money from our accounts directly they are just no paying a decent return. Still taking our money but in a different way. Now if they could not print money it would probably be a different story.
    21 Mar 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Swiss to vote on gold being returned from USA and increasing gold reserves.

     

    http://bit.ly/1639w7H
    21 Mar 2013, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    I've been expecting this as we get closer to elevating gold to a Tier 1 asset for banks. Look for the Central Banks to do things with the gold which would not be possible if it were not physically under their control. For starters, I believe they will be "loaning" it to their subsidiary banks. We will then see it used as collateral for loans, which will be counted as reserves...

     

    The insanity just gets complicated from there.

     

    At least, I give this concept more credence than the more outre' conspiracy theories, ie, that they KNOW when the planned nuking of New York will take place, and want to avoid having their gold irradiated...
    21 Mar 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    Guest Post: Whose Insured Deposits Will Be Plundered Next?
    http://bit.ly/ZQlGgv

     

    Spain, it would appear, has changed constitutional rules to enable a so-called ‘moderate’ levy on deposits.

     

    New legislation in New Zealand suggests that depositor funds could be used to bail out banks there, too.

     

    Far more worrying for American and British depositors though is this paragraph Golem XIV brings up from a joint Bank of England and FDIC paper from 2012 which points to the possibility of using deposit insurance funds to bail out illiquid banks:
    22 Mar 2013, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps step 1 to cleaning up this mess is for everyone in the conversation (meaning the press, the pundits, the ECB, the Fed, the IMF, the various elected officials) to stop calling it a bailout of the banks and admit that it is a bailout of the bondholders of the banks. Every time it is mentioned, that is how it should be referred to.

     

    I think if we did that, it would give an entirely different perspective to the whole thing, and maybe the people in all of the involved countries would get furious enough to finally stand up for themselves and demand an end to what is being done to them.
    22 Mar 2013, 07:08 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1907) | Send Message
     
    (Maybe), maybe what we are seeing are governments attempting to light a fire under savers behinds so they pull their money and put it in risk assets. Yesterday, I read this from a guy named Seigel, some economics professor at some school and he has been arguing "that trillions of dollars are locked in bank and savings accounts that aren’t earning any money, so even modest flows into the stock market from those funds will boost shares."

     

    http://on.mktw.net/104...

     

    Thats why interest rates are so low, right? Well, as all the markets topped out the governments want more of that sideline cash to go into the market and what better way to do it than to put an inkling of an idea that maybe their money is not so safe in bank deposits and would actually be better in risk assets. It would be a very crazy idea, so I could be way off and this not make any sense, I have not thought it out a lot, but it could be the goal of such a stupid move.
    22 Mar 2013, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5332) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, and it really would be a stupid move. As deposits move out of banks, regulators get really nervous. Heavy liquidity ratios are pushed big time by regulators now. So to keep those deposits in place would require higher interest rates from the banks. That puts the squeeze on their margins and that puts a squeeze on capital. So in a world with Basel III and ever continued push from regulators for higher capital even without Basel III, such a strategy seems to be a death sentence for even more banks, more bank failures and even more bailouts, not to mention outright panic.
    22 Mar 2013, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    In bailing out the bond holders they also bailed out the stockholders in the US.
    Where as with the automakers they also illegally stiffed the bondholders.
    22 Mar 2013, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    There is a smooth continuity in the (government) thinking that goes:

     

    1. All money belongs to them. Sure, they have to let the citizens keep a little else they tend to whine, but ALL money is really theirs.

     

    2. Citizens almost NEVER know how to run their own lives, including how to manage the State Assets (aka, ALL assets) entrusted to them...

     

    3. Evidence that government is thinking along these lines: The concept that it is a bad thing for citizens to put State Assets into dead money sitting in savings where it does nothing good ("good" being to create rich tax revenue for government).

     

    4. What to do? Force the citizens to start using those State Assets to generate tax revenue, while simultaneously increasing the tax rates (all just a wild coincidence, of course) on things like dividends and capital gains...

     

    Gosh, this almost makes a (grossly perverted) sort of sense.
    22 Mar 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    Except money in the bank, isn't in the bank.
    The bank is loaning it out to others.
    Sorry; no loans for cars, we don't have any money. Nope can't help you buy the house of your dreams.
    22 Mar 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    If getting all the American dollars out of the banks, American, Swiss, Bahamian, Lichtenstein, Monaco, Cypress etc. would solve the worlds problems I suggest that the COLOR of the currency be changed to maybe day-glow orange or chartreuse and stipulate than all existing US currency in traditional green garb that is not turned in for "new" currency will be declared null and void within 90 days.

     

    Wouldn't it be fascinating to see how much is stuffed into the safe deposit boxes, mattresses and secret accounts around the world?

     

    Boggles the mind.

     

    WT
    22 Mar 2013, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    WT, I am sure that is on the list. Near the top. Changing it would require a bank account with a NAME and SSN too. Now that would give them a lot of info on where the money is. North Korea would be SOL as well as drug cartels and terrorists and of course anyone not on the govts good boy list.
    22 Mar 2013, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    This is a link to a Bloomberg article by Gary Shilling on deflation, not inflation as a result of deleveraging.
    1st in a series.
    Worth a look IMHO.

     

    http://bloom.bg/ZFpzpd

     

    WT
    22 Mar 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Now we have an explaination for all the dead pigs floating in the rivers (16,000+). Seems there has been a crack down on selling dead and diseased pigs for meat. Yeeeck

     

    http://fxn.ws/10t0MGf
    22 Mar 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    There is definitely a shortage of swine in China. Pigs are the mainstay commodity aside from rice in China, and recently increasing affluence has resulted in much higher demand and a not increasing supply of the porkers.

     

    I assume that's the reason for them using contaminated products.

     

    Yeeeck Squared!

     

    WT
    22 Mar 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Re Pigs-

     

    $HOGS (Zhongpin) came public in the early 90s.

     

    About 2 years ago I found out about it and took a bite (oh no-) This was and is a great growth story. Needless to say my timing was almost perfect- In at $20 and out six months later at $10- Continued down to $8 and crawled back up to $10 + or - and was residing there until December 2012 when it popped a couple of points on huge volume up to the current $13 area. Have no idea why.

     

    Although I'm gun shy about jumping back into that shark tank (pig tank?) after the hit I took, I may revisit the possibility-

     

    Definitely not for the weak of heart!

     

    WT
    22 Mar 2013, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    Did you got caught during the time when Chinese companies were being pummeled for bad accounting/reporting?Some of us had HOG around 2007-9 along with SEED and FEED and we made $ on them and wrote about them at the time. Then, Chinese small cap and microcap stocks were unloved (rightfully).
    I still have some scar tissue from those microcap follies--one of them being the first Vietnamese stock on an American exchange. If I had to do it again, I wouldn't. They hire little mom and pop shop accountants and make it up as they go along. I remember tracing one company back to a soccer mom in Fairfield CT and writing about it.
    Blech.
    HOGS is a real company though. Seriously,(hindsight being 50/50) HOG would have been a better pick! http://bit.ly/Yx5Q8W_cr=ppc|Google|Sitelin...
    22 Mar 2013, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    OG-

     

    I bought in in mid 2010 around $12 and rode it up as it hit $22 or so, then settled and slowly started down in 2011. I sold most of the position around $19 but the story kept getting better- the stock did not unfortunately and I gave up at $10 mid 2001. I do believe that the inventory carry was suspect.

     

    I did a little current research and the pop in November (not December as I said) was apparently due to a major sale of ownership.

     

    As to HOG, I made an investment in one of those about twenty years ago after selling my Royal Enfield. Didn't keep it all that long. Too many 4 wheelers trying to put me out of the gene pool.

     

    WT
    23 Mar 2013, 05:35 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Based on a letter to clients over the weekend, it appears Dutch megabank ABN Amro is changing its precious metals custodian rules and "will no longer allow physical delivery."

     

    Have no fear, they reassuringly add, your account will be settled at the bid or offer price in the 'market' and "you need to do nothing" as "we have your investments in precious metals." http://tinyurl.com/cam...
    24 Mar 2013, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17300) | Send Message
     
    Now it begins ...

     

    HardToLove
    24 Mar 2013, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >HTL

     

    "Now it begins ...

     

    The big hurt?

     

    For sure-

     

    WT
    25 Mar 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    Trust me. BwaHaHaHa
    25 Mar 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Well then that is paper gold now and no longer physical gold. Talk about bait and switch tactics. Least they are not keeping 40%.....yet!!
    25 Mar 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    I dare say it may be time for "a wee bit o-silver". Now that I have said that we will get 5 margin calls. Still gun shy on that obvious manipulation. Do not get to carried away until you consider watching to see if we get a sell in May and go away year and then the price jump in August. July might be a better time to stock up. Assuming no Market collapse prior to that.....LOL with fear.

     

    http://bit.ly/ZQhMF5
    25 Mar 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    I forgot to post something for my birthday last St. Patricks day. So here it is late.

     

    http://bit.ly/X85vOV
    25 Mar 2013, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >DG

     

    Thanks for that-

     

    Mother came here from Limerick in the 20s and would entertain us doing the dance. My 11 y/o granddaughter is into her Irish heritage. Neat story.

     

    WT
    25 Mar 2013, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    I just wanna say...look around the world... in the face of so much festering dysfunction, of so many trainwrecks in waiting, miraculously, amazingly, the plates are still spinning yet...the mood ranges from nagging doubts, spiking fears, to welcome respites of euphoric calm and new episodes of shaky, illusory relief, and some start to think, "maybe it's all in our heads". But in truth: Nothing. Has. Been. Solved.
    25 Mar 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Yep but they have added a couple dozen more spinning plates for us to keep up with. That huge platter over there that says Obamacare on it is the one I keep wondering what kinda hell it will be when that one comes crashing down....and that clown faced plate titled Cyprus.....just thinking ditto. Nothing. Has. Been. Solved. Now the plates.....they appear to be slowing down.....
    25 Mar 2013, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    Landec (LNDC) came out with good numbers. This one is a good growth story. It's up around 100% in a year.
    http://bit.ly/10gxUPi
    26 Mar 2013, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1887) | Send Message
     
    Looks very interesting OG -- I will check this one out.
    Thx
    mj
    26 Mar 2013, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Never heard of them before. Thanks OG.
    27 Mar 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    Platinum is on my radar screen. Hat tip to DG for sending me this article:
    http://bit.ly/109cCDn
    Mineweb has been running articles on platinum sales picking up and low inventory, too.
    Would anyone buy PAL or SWC here? Other than salting away some bullion, how would you play it? What's the name of the SA contributor that is heavy into platinum? He wears a cowboy hat on his profile picture. Time to brush up on this one.
    27 Mar 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Mark Anthony. I follow him.
    27 Mar 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    You the man!
    27 Mar 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    a chart on silver supply and demand through 2011.

     

    http://bit.ly/zfQpgo
    27 Mar 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Look at default probabilites and sort through them as you wish at this chart.

     

    http://bit.ly/YIGViH
    27 Mar 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    For those that follow SAND here is an interesting read.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    27 Mar 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1907) | Send Message
     
    To compliment your article DG. Here is a good article on miners, includes talk about DRDgold sounds like a similar approach as SAND.

     

    http://bit.ly/13yawmx
    27 Mar 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >JAK

     

    Thanks for the link. As an aside the sector sentiment was a good find for me as we'll.

     

    WT
    29 Mar 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    Thanks jak. A rationale for the sharp drop in SAND share price recently that is welcome here.
    29 Mar 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/10j4oIy

     

    Yep his latest article.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    27 Mar 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Wednesday, March 27, 2:25 PM ET
    Russia and South Africa, which together hold ~80% of the world’s platinum-group metal reserves, reportedly plan to create an OPEC-type cartel to coordinate exports. Like OPEC, the two countries would want to be able to create a floor under platinum prices, which would help their important domestic mining industries in terms of profitability and allow them to pay poor and increasingly militant miners better wages.
    27 Mar 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    There is an absolute buying frenzy in sterling silver flatware on the on line auction sites. Sets that were running $1300-1500 a few months when silver was around $33 troy ounce
    are now getting bid up to $1800-2100 with silver ranging between $28-29 toz.
    27 Mar 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    OG this is a good sign but not sure its blast off yet but when Physical demand is screaming way up over any paper silver instrument its time to pay attention. Do not buy SLV unless you enjoy haircuts. Think Cyprus.

     

    Please remember 5 margin calls in 8 days. Never forget that lesson.

     

    http://bit.ly/10RwJs3
    27 Mar 2013, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    Yes, the gap between physical demand and the etf is wide.
    I wouldn't buy SLV, but I'd consider buying puts against it or options on SIVR (I have to check that out and see if that is viable) and structure some kind of options play.
    . I'd rather own silver wheaton, or a closed end fund with physical, perhaps CEF that holds gold and silver.
    To quote Paul Simon, it's time for me to
    "Make a new plan, Stan."
    The miners have been lagging for several years. they should benefit.
    Of course, never before have so many central banks owned this much pm. Putin thinks like us? Bitter irony.
    The best way to play platinum? Bling...
    27 Mar 2013, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    I follow Clemens Scholl. His commentary is as interesting as the article, imo. This is about the two sandstorms. I don't own this and wouldn't but I know some of you have taken positions in the past so this might interest you.
    http://bit.ly/YFhguq

     

    I'm home sick and entertaining myself on SA. Time to get off and do some work! Syonara.
    27 Mar 2013, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    oops i see dg posted this way before me. sorry for the duplication.
    27 Mar 2013, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    If its not in your hand.....well. Be careful. There is not enough metals out there and the scams could get worse.

     

    http://bit.ly/11OfudQ
    27 Mar 2013, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    I started my research on stillwater and immediately came across this: an attempt to replace the Board is in the works:
    http://bit.ly/Zz5wJo
    27 Mar 2013, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    If they are successful in replacing the board now would be a great time to buy. How good is your crystal ball. Mine ran out of beer a long time ago.

     

    Cost averaging comes to mind. How much farther down will it go till this is worked out is another question to consider. I think the metal will be a good investment with the cartel getting started so possibly it might just move sideways for some time to give you an opportunity to buy and see and get out even or around there i9f they can not oust the present board, if its something your interested in.

     

    All that of course is considering a free market.....we know how thats working. So there is my two ounces off the cuff.

     

    It was a great find OG.
    27 Mar 2013, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    The new gold investors who hold more than 27 trillion dollars. When they move in it will cause the price to explode.

     

    http://bit.ly/Zza3eI
    27 Mar 2013, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Bad news in threes today. 4th qtr GDP revised lower, jobless claims jump, and Chicago PMI plunges.

     

    Good news is Cyprus banks have reopened to allow the withdraw of 300 euros per day max. A talking ATM, how sweet.
    28 Mar 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Moar bad news. Foreclosure rate jumps 9%.

     

    http://on.mktw.net/102...
    28 Mar 2013, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Its like today is Friday the 13th or something. Now its the Kansas City Fed data going south. Is this a prediction as proposed in the following chart?

     

    http://bit.ly/14qP1U7
    28 Mar 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1907) | Send Message
     
    and we just flew stealth bombers over South Korea...just, because we can. And consumer confidence board printed at recessionary levels on Tuesday, but things are fine DG, lets just get that S&P to a record today and all will be fine.

     

    http://on.wsj.com/14rhcSF
    28 Mar 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    We did it!!! all is fine.

     

    Except that in addition to PM fraud now its food fraud.
    Can you say dog food in your curry.

     

    http://bit.ly/16kPiGD
    28 Mar 2013, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    You know, we didn't flow stealth bombers over S Korea "just because we can."
    Why don't you take your incorrect political comment someplace else? You can be sure the South Koreans don't see it the way you do. If you don't understand N Korea is a real threat, too bad for you and for whoever has to weed through comments on this QC. What happened to your own political QC? Probably no one is reading it...
    http://huff.to/1718gDe
    28 Mar 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    I guess having a stiff upper lip allows the brits to eat all these exotic foods.
    28 Mar 2013, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Oops, its not dog food in the curry its actual dog MEAT (as in fido himself) in the curry. Stiff upper lip indeed!!!
    28 Mar 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    Now that's a curry with a real bite to it!

     

    Those doggone Brits!
    28 Mar 2013, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1907) | Send Message
     
    Why so defensive OG? I was being sarcastic taking the view of the general public and media that N. Korea does not really matter and no one should pay attention if we fly stealths over the south we should just keep sending stocks to record levels. (I should have changed to sarcasm font, my fault.)

     

    Thank god no one reads the PQC, I am lazy and don't want to maintain it, but it is still there as a place for political rants to go and people to have good debates instead of here. Your welcome.
    28 Mar 2013, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Quin's blog is worth a look as well as the article Doubleguns noted.

     

    http://bit.ly/14qI7hz

     

    Thanks, DG

     

    WT
    28 Mar 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    WT, Your welcome. I like Quinn's blogs. I really like his writing style!!! No PC crap and all.
    28 Mar 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Does anyone see a good entry point for a speculative buy on CPST?

     

    I still believe that the shale oil-gas drilling and production pads out in the middle of nowhere will be a hot market for their simple and long lived micro-turbine electrical generators. The gas is free and only minimal added infrastructure is needed. They can be sold or picked up and moved if no longer needed. They can even sell power to local users and make money once the capital costs are written off.

     

    Now if they can just get that sales/cost number well over 1.00 .
    28 Mar 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17300) | Send Message
     
    SHB: I never advise others, but I have some orders in at $0.87, figuring an overshoot on the way back to $0.88 near-term. Almost got it today, but it held up at $0.89 after a low-ball 3-minute period ~266K shares traded scooped up all the shares around that level.

     

    Downside risks at $0.85/$0.80 ... (psychological points) and $0.73, near-term. Long-term downside has been as low as $0.63.

     

    I don't think $0.63 will be seen again, $0.72 seems only a remote possibility.

     

    Shorts increased last reporting period though, so it's hard to say how much they may or may not influence pps going forward.

     

    Because of (my perceived) manipulation by MM bots and shorters, I'm not sure there is such a thing as a good entry price. There are just ones that seem to have less risk on the charts.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    28 Mar 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    HTL, thanks for the TA on CPST. I was about to place an order at $.89 today when the wife insisted on my immediate attention to other things. Hope to pick up some tomorrow at sub $.90
    28 Mar 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17300) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: My current post above was based on a call I made 3/25 that we were likely to go to $0.88 again on another board I visit. I haven't updated my assessment since. I mention this only because the continuation of the pattern has resulted in a more severe down slope, but we had a volume "spike" today, which *may* signal the end of a trend.

     

    Anyway, one of the factors that I considered in that call was a reversion to the mean of the recent leg up - which would be $0.87. These reversions don't always hit on the money. I also warned in that call that if Fibonacci is feeling wicked we could see a 61.8% re-trace.

     

    So, just wanted to let you know that there is both upside risk, suggested by the volume "spike", and downside risk, suggested by not yet having reached the "mean" of the range and a possible Fibonacci series re-trace being possible.

     

    There's more, regarding oscillators, but when I see a volume spike it makes me get cautious on the oscillators, which are suggesting more downside.

     

    Oh! Last thought - non-technical. We just finished EOQ window dressing season. So for most stocks, potential support is now withdrawn. Since (CPST) is so heavily shorted, "support" for the shorters would be hammering price into a six-foot hole I think. I don't know if this is what happened today, but it's possible it was and it might try to start climbing again next week as the shorts look good on the books for this quarter.

     

    With incomplete info, as always, MHO,
    HardToLove
    28 Mar 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the elaboration, HTL. My ruminations lead me to think that "six-foot hole" is possible but unlikely to prevail very long. Might realize larger gains by waiting for a lower price, but that lower price is not assured and I suspect share price 60 days forward will provide reasonable return on investment at today's price level. Those shorters will need to cover.
    28 Mar 2013, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >HTL

     

    Hadn't even considered the EOC as it relates to $CPST. I just can't get a grip on evaluating anything with a clear head w/ all the BernankeBucks skewing the calculus. I would guess that $CPST will ride the tide up and down with the rest of the lemmings.

     

    WT
    28 Mar 2013, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17300) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: The shorters have been covering since ... Sept(?) of last year. Hang on ... Ah! Since June.

     

    Here we go: 02/15/2013 33,162,563, 06/15/2012 52,431,170

     

    The latest report, 03/15/2013 33,053,421 has days to cover of 32.32, the third highest since 10/15/2010, when I began tracking this statistic.

     

    My TFH theory is that the shorters (hedgies like Gilder, Gagnon and Howe?) have been getting cooperation from some folks to hold price down while they cover, as delicately as possible to avoid pushing price up. Until some blockbuster PR appears that might might cause confidence to be again instilled in the investors (lost long ago I think), I expect price to continue to have a tough row to hoe.

     

    The positions I'm trying to initiate now are relatively small and expected to be added to at various points, depending on the charts. Ideally, I'd like to add more when what seems an extended move up begins. With the shorters still so heavily in play, this is difficult to ascertain though.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    29 Mar 2013, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17300) | Send Message
     
    WWT: (CPST) is divorced from the market, overall. See my post to D-Inv about shorters for one reason. The other is the history of disappointments that lasted so long. You know how it goes - trust is easily lost and difficult and slow to regain. CPST has begun this latter process, but it's a work in progress still.

     

    Correlation, directionally, with the SPY and QQQ was pretty good through December. The first of the year it absolutely broke. I think this is due to the short factors I mentioned elsewhere.

     

    If you pull a chart with CPST and SPY or QQQ, you'll see the fracture.

     

    Like D-Inv, I think recovery in 2-3 months seems likely with the constantly improving metrics of the company and the shorters bailing trying to avoid a short squeeze, I'm sure, when the good results start to flow on a regular basis.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Mar 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >HTL

     

    Thanks for the insight. Some longer term conviction w/volume would be nice to see.

     

    WT
    29 Mar 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    "Until some blockbuster PR appears that might might cause confidence to be again instilled in the investors (lost long ago I think), I expect price to continue to have a tough row to hoe."

     

    That confidence reference resembles me, HTL, until our last exchange on the stock. I will take a small position on this dip after looking into the oil and gas (plus other) markets.
    29 Mar 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Then again, If Mr. Market wakes up next week after the recent binge of US equity markets and is hung-over, we could see a 10% correction without an EZ meltdown. CPST would not resist that degree of negative sentiment.

     

    My TFH is getting more use lately. The Cyprus deal is almost an announcement that fear and politics have gained control in the EZ.
    29 Mar 2013, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    Relax dude, it ain't nuthin' but a thing. Everybody just chill.
    We got this I tell ya. It's "EZ".
    29 Mar 2013, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    The housing recover or not in two graphs.

     

    http://bit.ly/10hOHjQ
    28 Mar 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >SHB

     

    I believe that < $.90 is a good entry. I have an order in for $.89 that I have been renewing daily.

     

    WT
    28 Mar 2013, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >DG

     

    Thanks-

     

    Smoke, mirrors and whistling in the dark, I believe. Trying to create a self fulfilling prophecy maybe?

     

    The mortgage applications is the tell. The inventory drop is the investment pools buying the distressed properties and renting them out, probably in great part to the current occupants.

     

    WT
    29 Mar 2013, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Now for the next round they will be taking 50% of your mattress.

     

    Who did not see this coming. Raise your hands, No one here, I thought so.

     

    http://bit.ly/10lDZKe
    28 Mar 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Continuing drought will be a problem this year. Grain prices to go up food costs expected to increase 4%.. Rails will be moving the food if the ole Miss is to low to float barges again.

     

    http://bit.ly/16iR1Mx

     

    Put this under the REE heading by mistake last night.
    28 Mar 2013, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    Anyone holding ANV here? I'm trying to not panic, picked up a few more shares today on the dip.
    28 Mar 2013, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1907) | Send Message
     
    Jpau, I don't know their story per say but I know Seth Klarman of The Baupost Group owns a nice chunk of them as well as nova gold. I have an article I may or may not publish on why I am bullish on miners from here on. I am lazy though and don't know if I want the bother of being a contributor. If you would like to see the article I will send it to you. PM if interested.
    28 Mar 2013, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    I appreciate the comments jakurtz, D-inv, WT; currently I'm long AKG (formerly KGN), NG, NCQ and ANV, and a little CALVF in gold. I'm not really a 'gold-bug', I'm not holding physical, but I really do think the miners might be a little overly beaten-down here.

     

    AKG - this one is trying my patience. The aborted merger with PMI has set it back. Still, my average pps is below the price of the warrants that management holds. I think Sprott bought last year.

     

    NG, NCQ - long term value plays, small positions I'll add to on drops - powder permitting. Klarman bullish as of last fall.

     

    ANV - in a way, I wish they would have done an offering at $35 when they had the chance. They still claim they can expand the mine from cash on hand, cash flows and existing credit; and 552k ounces gold and 25.5 million ounces silver per year from 2015 to 2024 keeps me in. I believe Klarman sold 43% of his stake last fall, but I think he did it above $30 per share. It will be interesting to see if he added in Q1. They just let CEO go. hmmm
    29 Mar 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1907) | Send Message
     
    I read an article and I wish I could find it, that the mid-tier miners may start doing some M&A in the near term to get a hold of some high potential properties, and once some of those come online we may start seeing the larger miners step in with some M&A on proven deposits in the mid-tier developers. My one thing with the juniors right now is that if gold continues to consolidate for a while the juniors are going to start getting weeded out. I think the article said their were about 600 juniors currently in the business and that by June or July their will be far, far less.

     

    My article argues that the GDX with the larger miners are so undervalued at this point that even if gold does continue to consolidate, I believe they have reached their bottom at $35 range and will probably only see that range again if gold does spike down to the low 15xx or mid-14xx, but I don't expect that in our current global economic climate and even if it did it would be very short lived. The current price to earnings ratio of the GDX is 10.68. Price to book is a measly 1.20 and Price to sales is 2.61. Apple almost rivals it being at 10x trailing PE but has a 3.33 price to book and 2.58 price to sales (not comparing the two but just for a reference as Apple is widely considered to be undervalued here, which I agree with)

     

    I just went to look at Bauposts 13-f holdings and Klarman reduced his position in Allied Nevada by 43% in Q4 of 2012 but added slightly to his Nova gold position, which has speculative mines in Alaska. That may not be a good sign for ANV

     

    http://bit.ly/YMQCTe

     

    I am in NUGT right now around $6 avg cost, I was early and have held it longer than I want but I think it could move a good 33% in a very short amount of time, even the next couple weeks depending on the sentiment and what gold does. It is 3X leveraged so you want to be really careful with it and have time to watch it (although when i sit around watching stuff I just watch it go down, frozen like a deer in headlights unwilling to conclude I am wrong.)
    29 Mar 2013, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    I opted for SAND over ANV. Might take another look.
    28 Mar 2013, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >jpau

     

    I like $SAND because of the risk spread and the fact that their take will be improving at I believe three mines within the next few months. I also like $SLW for the same reasoning.
    I also hold $KGC.
    Hope this helps-

     

    WT
    28 Mar 2013, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Interesting read on gold comments during the last drop and sudden surge in the late 70's.

     

    http://bit.ly/11WDJ5P
    29 Mar 2013, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1907) | Send Message
     
    GD it. I just wrote an article that includes that and I haven't published it yet because I am scared. but the similarities from gold to equities between now and mid 70's are striking to my uneducated eye.
    29 Mar 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    :-) TB alluded to possibility of a sharp drop in gold price due to something along those lines.
    31 Mar 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Good historic lookback, DG.

     

    It does, indeed, tally well with my recent musings on this topic.

     

    I still see the possibility for a vicious downspike to the $1200 range, but it will be unsustainable for any length of time. I consider the 30 month period back in the 70's as illustrative of conditions then, not current conditions. As they point out, we saw massive sales of gold from the IMF, the US and the central bankers (whereas today we see a very different landscape). The analysts of that time had a lot more support for their negative predictions that those of today...

     

    Which should be instructive when comparing the two periods.

     

    As far as us anticipating a similar run up from (say) $1200 bottoms to something close to $10,000 gold (which would equal the peaks achieved in the 3 year period following the article's bottom near $100), I do NOT anticipate that happening over the same sort of time period.

     

    I DO see a rebound, with subsequent growth, perhaps to $2000-2100, following the next bottom.

     

    As for the author's firm belief that we are about to see a renaissance of stock value for PM mining juniors, I do not agree. The world has changed dramatically since the 1970's, in many ways, and not least by forcing up production costs. Mines in 1974 that could produce gold for $40 per ounce are now exhausted, and the new mines replacing them are working with modern labor costs, environmental rules, oil and energy prices, an extremely heavy regulatory load, and a much lower average ore grade.

     

    This will tend to act as a counterweight to extreme price dips, but will also make abrupt gains for small producers hard. It is an environment which favors the mega corporation, at the expense of the small and young. As the global crony capitalist/socialist system expands its reach (already global), the first to be consumed are the small entrepreneurs in businesses like mining which are prime political targets.

     

    I see Gold being manipulated to allow the various major political players to rush in and snatch their chunk of meat, followed by a brief healing period lest the great beast expire entirely. This may be repeated several times over the next decade or so...
    1 Apr 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    Have the gold miners bottomed? Are they taking off? 5th chart.

     

    http://bit.ly/YXKAIH
    29 Mar 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message
     
    "Bail Ins" like the one in cyprus are now being proposed in the Canadian govt budget. Will that actually get pssed will be the question. If it does.....you had best know about it.

     

    http://bit.ly/11XaIH8
    29 Mar 2013, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7887) | Send Message