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  • QC #256, April 12, 2013 401 comments
    Apr 12, 2013 3:55 PM

    QuickChatter Anonymous meeting, called to order...

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  • I stand athwart the dashed yellow line on our highway to hell yelling "Stop!"

     

    and get run over...
    12 Apr 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Must have been a congressman driving that car.
    12 Apr 2013, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • Was it a Tesla?
    17 Apr 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Karma.
    17 Apr 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • It was actually a gang of 'em, in limos...
    17 Apr 2013, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • It would appear that the fear of countrys being forced by the troika to sell gold is panicing the market. I think the Chinese are lining up with a big smile. I can hear them now "MOAR please".
    12 Apr 2013, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Just wondering what others think about Iceland as a safe haven for some funds.
    When push came to shove: rather than stick it to their citizens, they were willing to tell the banks and the other countries to take a hike.
    That says a lot to me. It also says they probably don't have a lot of bad debt over head.
    I've never heard of them mentioned as a place to put your money.
    Rather than looking for return on the principle I'm thinking of the principle. Information/opinion welcome.
    13 Apr 2013, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • Norway has one of the most solid economies in Europe right now. They have been totally immune to the Euromess. I don't have any info on their banking but the ETF $NORW is not bad.

     

    WT
    14 Apr 2013, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • On Norway debt, check this out-
    Not a new article but still valid.
    http://sm.wsj.com/ZiBeLN

     

    WT
    14 Apr 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • WT,
    Completely agree with you re: Norway. I've done well with their equities/dividends, with some banks ( e.g. DNB), and an S&L (e.g. SPOG). I add to my Kroner position whenever the USD rises with safe haven appeal.
    mj
    14 Apr 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Over the next couple years, this project will (should?) increase sales for Capstone "over there". MTs for powering fields and pressurizing pipelines, via BPC engineering I suspect, should continue to see growth in both units and market share in NG-related projects.

     

    "Gazprom and Gasunie Explore Nord Stream Expansion Project"

     

    http://bit.ly/1141lmM

     

    Thanks to Jesinternational at Investorvillage for the post and link.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Apr 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • HTL et al: I picked up another 1k shares at 0.862

     

    This oil field and pipeline application gives me warm feeling about the future u-turbine market. Users are building a comfort zone on reliability, flexibility and amortized cost. They must like what they see so far, since they are buying more.

     

    I havn't plotted it, but the rate of purchases seems to be going up for the oil/gas business, especially in Russia and former USSR countries where the electric distribution infrastructure is thin.
    18 Apr 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Stop loss sales effects on gold. We could see more if price continues down.

     

    http://bit.ly/ZvZ6HT
    15 Apr 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • >DG

     

    Thanks for the link.
    THAT explains a lot. Based on that we should continue to see more futures covering.

     

    Gold at $1394 @ 10:10 EST

     

    WT
    15 Apr 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • "One fund in particular, based in Stamford Connecticut, was identified as the previous shorter of gold and has a history of being caught on the wrong side of the law on a few occasions."

     

    Stephen Cohen playing games with PM's:

     

    Timing Physical Gold Purchases in 2013, Hedge Fund SAC Capital Positions for Movement, and Review of New Gold Producer Metanor Resources Inc.
    http://bit.ly/ZsuIiB

     

    << Several ‘smart-money’ players have positioned themselves for a spike in Gold for 2013, recently released Q4 2012 hedge fund details affirm several are positioning for a move higher in mining shares sometime in the next two years or less; e.g. SAC Capital Partners LP, a $20 billion dollar group of hedge funds founded by Stephen A. Cohen, positioned itself in over $240 million dollars worth of gold, silver, and mining share investments. SAC employed large sophisticated straddle positions to profit from volatility (designed to make money either way by being simultaneously short and long) along with directional strategies including over $36 million dollars worth of call options on various gold and silver mining companies (designed for potential moves higher). SAC also increased its holdings in gold and silver mining shares from roughly $54.9 million, to $122.2 million, a total increase of over $65 million; companies included many of the major producers such as AngloGold, Barrick, Goldcorp, and included junior producers, such as Timmins Gold Corp. and Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. >>
    15 Apr 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • I am taking possession of all my metals now!!
    15 Apr 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • >DG-

     

    Don't do it!

     

    You will drain the COMEX stockpile!
    15 Apr 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Too late.....See below about Comex possible default. Their stock pile is already depleting and incoming metals suppliers have been hit hard. Its a situation to follow for now but take physical possession of all you can. Its cheap right now!!!
    17 Apr 2013, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • Added to my SAND position today.
    15 Apr 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • The bombings in Boston today already have 2 dead,23 injured,9-10 critically injured, (possibly) lost limbs according to Fox News.(I think that's what Shepherd Smith was trying to say. He called them "decapitations". He probably meant amputations.)
    Was Benghazi a prelude to today's attacks?
    15 Apr 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • O.G.: They're suggesting, preliminarily, that the devices might be similar to the IEDs, such as seen over in Iraq and Afghanistan and expect the types of damage to closely parallel. Also, the methodology of a first explosion followed by a second a fraction of a minute later when first responders would be getting near is similar to strategy used over there.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Apr 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • look what happened to (IMSC.PK) today just after 3PM.
    15 Apr 2013, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • Now over 100 hospitalized. There at least 4 different devices that they are reporting about. Tufts Medical Center has been partially evacuated. There might be an explosive device there.
    15 Apr 2013, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • CNBC reports about 100 treated, most with minor injuries.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Apr 2013, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • I seen reports of two explosions near the Boston marathon finish line (one of those was apparently in a hotel lobby), one explosion in the JFK Library in Boston, and reports of two additional bombs disarmed by police bomb squad teams. Boston shut down cell phone service to disable use of mobile phones to trigger more explosions.
    15 Apr 2013, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • D-Inv: they've reported the library one was an incendiary device, so they suspect it's not related to the ones at the marathon finish line.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Apr 2013, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST) ... I think! Thanks to Jesinternational at Investorvillage for the post.

     

    We seem to be penetrating the conciousness of some non-traditional customers.

     

    “Big Switch” from oil to gas now a reality"

     

    http://bit.ly/Z0dnRz

     

    HardToLove
    16 Apr 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Reuters article on climate change.

     

    "Scientists are struggling to explain a slowdown in climate change that has exposed gaps in their understanding..."

     

    "My own confidence in the data has gone down in the past five years," said Richard Tol, an expert in climate change and professor of economics at the University of Sussex in England."

     

    http://reut.rs/17E4wrO

     

    Edit: I have been having coal in the back of my mind for awhile. If more and more evidence comes out through the mainstream that maybe climate change isn't so cut and dry as it has been presented in the past it could be a bit of a tailwind for coal.
    16 Apr 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    Coal has massive other problems as used today.
    Airborne Mercury, Arsenic, Lead, Sulfur, Uranium and on and on.
    The US puts 32% of the mercury in the Great Lakes.
    14% comes from China and covers half the globe to get there.
    "China second largest source of Great Lakes mercury pollution"
    http://bit.ly/XebLOu

     

    I've heard even if CA gets to zero emissions it is unlikely they will reach their goals as so much comes from China and other Asian countries. (This was speculation by an expert.)
    By cleaning up the US and Europe and thereby sending work overseas we have made the world a much dirtier place.
    Even coal plants in the US and Europe are much cleaner than elsewhere.
    World wide the grids continue to get more coal dependent rather than less.

     

    This is something to be considered in your investment thesis.
    16 Apr 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Merkel has stated that withdrawing from nuclear might mean moving back to coal in newer, cleaner fashion than ever before but some say coal still is the dirtiest fuel.

     

    With the recent increases in natural gas prices coal would indeed look better.

     

    WT
    16 Apr 2013, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • The hemlines that rise along with Japan's stock market
    http://reut.rs/15iDiaV
    16 Apr 2013, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Gold Miners Approaching $1,300 Pain Threshold

     

    Gold miners led by Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX), the world’s largest, will likely accelerate spending cuts and trim high-cost output as the metal’s biggest plunge since 1980 threatens to make about 30 percent of production unprofitable.

     

    Gold futures fell 9.3 percent to settle at $1,361.10 in New York yesterday, taking losses to more than 20 percent since the record close in August 2011 and meeting the common definition of a bear market.

     

    The average so-called all-in cost of 20 gold producers was about $1,306 an ounce in the fourth quarter, Toronto-based analysts at Dundee Capital Markets said in an April 12 note. Below $1,300 gold, about 30 to 40 percent of mine production is probably not cash-flow positive.

     

    Among the larger North American producers, Toronto-based Iamgold Corp. (IMG) stands out as one of the higher-cost gold miners, said Pawel Rajszel, an analyst at Veritas Investment Research Corp. Iamgold, which fell 8.9 percent yesterday and 5.1 percent today, has lost 56 percent of its market value this year.

     

    “The one name that is kind of cheap and I think can weather the storm is Barrick,” Rajszel said. “They just have to get their act together.”

     

    Yamana Gold Inc. (YRI) and Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM) are also lower cost producers although they trade at higher valuations, he said. Goldcorp, New Gold Ltd., Yamana and Agnico have the greatest capacity to withstand lower gold prices without changing their current business plan or depleting lines of credit, RBC said in its note. http://tinyurl.com/d98...
    17 Apr 2013, 06:43 AM Reply Like
  • Could not decide if I should post this..I have no idea of the accuracy of it but if it is true you should know. Is the Comex coming up on a default? That would explain many things that have happened from the plunge in physical metals to the plunge in price as noted below.

     

    http://bit.ly/12m9NBU
    17 Apr 2013, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • Gold buying frenzy.

     

    http://bit.ly/YUBkKU
    17 Apr 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • >DG

     

    THAT is scary!

     

    WT
    17 Apr 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • A really good interview by the goldenjackass explaining the plunge in price. Put it on the must listen list for gold bugs.

     

    http://bit.ly/10gctmA
    17 Apr 2013, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Below is an excerpt from the below link:

     

    --Tuesday, April 16. The orchestrated attack on bullion in the paper gold market took the spot prices of gold and silver down on Friday and Monday, but actual physical purchases rose during this period. The sales were of paper claims, not of real metal.

     

    The demand for physical possession of bullion rose so strongly that large wholesalers such as http://www.tulving.com and large retailers such as Gainesville Coins reported sold out items. Also, dealers raised the premiums above the spot price that is charged for coins. From Friday to Monday the premium on Silver Eagles at the large online retailer, Gainesville Coins, rose from $3.75 to $5.99 above the spot price of silver. The percentage increase in premium was larger than the percentage decline in the silver price. Thus, the price of a silver one Troy ounce coin did not drop despite the drop in the spot price. Today (April 16) the price of a silver eagle purchased with a credit card from retailer Gainesville Coins is $30.36. You would never know that the market had fallen out.

     

    Today (Tuesday, April 16) Tulving reported 29% of its bar and coin bullion categories sold out and had almost no silver coin stock. The premium over spot on new gold eagles was $63.95. At large online retailers the premium was $71. Gainesville Coins has no silver Buffalos and lists shipment of orders to commence when coins are available, estimated to be May 10.

     

    http://bit.ly/ZrsWBe
    17 Apr 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Lots and lots and lots of gold charts here:

     

    http://binged.it/11gNPMF#

     

    Excluding China, global gold production is below 2004 levels. The top 5 global producers of gold were all down in the first half of 2012, as compared to the first half of 2011:

     

    Goldcorp down 10.6%
    Goldfields down 0.8%
    AngloGold down 3.3%
    Newmont down 2.0%
    Barrick Gold down 8.0%

     

    Between them all, production decreased by 5% in the period mentioned above.

     

    Also, I forget where I saw it, but total global production in 2012 was LESS than in 2011.
    17 Apr 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • A lot of what I read has Yellen in line to replace BB.

     

    http://bloom.bg/17nLh2G

     

    Here's a fun theory. The reason that Germany can't get its gold back is because BB doesn't have it, and the reason he doesn't have it, is because he has been using what supposed to be in the vaults to keep the price of gold depressed. If gold is low, or suddenly drops, then that keeps people scared of bidding up the price of gold. As such, they chase equities and not gold, and no one can point a finger at the Fed and say, "see gold going up is a vote of no confidence in the Fed". So now, BB can say, "What? Gold isn't going up. That means we are in a full on recovery, which means that equities will go up because people will want to invest in real economic opportunities and not gold. If you want proof, just look at the equities markets. See they are going up." Which they are because he has been using the gold that is supposed to be in his vaults to sell into the markets to scare people away from gold and thus make his point.

     

    So then Germany shows up and says give me my gold back, which BB doesn't have, but in order to get it, he would have to print to buy up what he has sold off, and thus raise the price back up, which is exactly what he has been trying to stop.
    17 Apr 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • For you fellow traders-
    $MNST might be worth a look-

     

    http://bit.ly/ZxiKUM

     

    WT
    17 Apr 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Bought (STO) this morning.
    17 Apr 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • FPA I also added on recent dip plus added another bloc of SLW today.
    17 Apr 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy-

     

    I also took new positions on $SLW and $MNST this AM.

     

    I held $AUY and $PAL through the debacle but sold all my $SAND as well as the rest of the metals two weeks ago but am considering once again.

     

    I must look into $STO. Thanks.

     

    WT
    17 Apr 2013, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • $SLW up >5% at $23.20 at 13:30 EST

     

    Got some $AUY $13 LEAPS 2015 for $2.00
    18 Apr 2013, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Yes and SAND up 9% today -- nice play WT. I've been out of miners for a while, but am also considering Newcrest tonight on the ASX. At $15.89 AUD I'm a buyer. NCM appears to have the financial strength to weather lower gold prices.
    mj
    18 Apr 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy-

     

    Is that $NCMGF or did you buy on the Aussie exchange? I don't think I can do that.

     

    WT
    18 Apr 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • WT I buy direct on the ASX online through Fidelity when the ASX opens. Newcrest is symbol NCM:AU on the ASX. Currently I am not buying anything with low volume liquidity and NCMGF has around 5,000 shares traded in the US vs. 5million+ on the ASX. If you trade with Fidelity -- it is a simple process to get access to their 25 international markets direct.
    mj
    18 Apr 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, Mercy-

     

    I do use Fidelity and will ask about international markets.

     

    That will probably thrill my accountant!

     

    WT
    18 Apr 2013, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • Trust me it thrills my husband who is a litigator but never knew he was destined also to become my International Tax attorney every April!
    mj
    18 Apr 2013, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • On the pm miner topic...

     

    We are now seeing the leading edge of the manipulation event I was talking about earlier. Paper metal prices are parting ways with physical metal prices... Prices have fallen to where major miners are seriously considering shutting down 30-40% of production... Yet demand for physical metal is still very strong.

     

    Now we see how low the spike is pushed. Is this the bottom? I doubt even the manipulators really know, they are using market control tools that are incredibly cumbersome and dangerous. But one thing is apparent, AFTER large mines are shuttered, while demand remains high, prices will eventually be turned back "on".

     

    The problem for the mining companies will be how to judge the permanence of any recovery. Most of their operations are very hard to restart once stopped, and the process is costly. What are their risks, and where will they see their best plan to follow? I propose that many will elect to accept the higher prices for their most efficient (still operating) producing mines, but delay restarting their less efficient operations.

     

    This could create a large shortfall in supply, and further accelerate any recovery, perhaps forming a symmetrical spike up every bit as large and dynamic as the original drop. It would also tend to develop very quickly and execute just as fast.

     

    At some point, as prices clearly sustain at a level high enough to re-open higher cost mines, those mines would be brought back on line, and the fluff in the price would ebb, giving prices an opportunity to look for equilibrium in the markets.

     

    What is unknown is the true agenda of the manipulators. I have long suspected that they would engineer this sort of scenario, make mountains of money as they drove down prices, and then switch sides and go long to makes mountains of money as they drove prices up. I believe they have enablers in various powerful governments who WANT these things to happen, so that they can pull much more of the world's gold supply into their own vaults (as a means of pursuing various geopolitical agendas), and are willing to allow their pet manipulators to line their pockets along the way.
    17 Apr 2013, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • TickerSpy's list of gold and silver stocks today, and how much about 40 stocks are off their 52 week highs (dire stuff!):

     

    http://bit.ly/113oozo

     

    Only one gold/silver stock on the list is up today, GoldFields. Lots of these PMers are experiencing heavy trading volume; most around 150% above average daily volume.
    17 Apr 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Busy 2013 Hurricane Season Forecast http://tinyurl.com/c63...
    17 Apr 2013, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • I think stories like these are fascinating.

     

    http://bit.ly/YxgDAf

     

    Another interesting story along these lines.

     

    http://bit.ly/Zu2VkY
    18 Apr 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • I thought this was a very intelligent analysis of the interplay between commodity prices and precious metals. The Dow-to-Gold Ratio is something to definitely watch closely in the future: Shale Oil is a Big Game Changer for Dow-to-Gold Ratio http://bit.ly/XIInVb
    18 Apr 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy: I read a similar article a day or two ago.

     

    I'm looking hard at New Gold (NGD) right now, and have an open order for 1000 shares at $6.74. Probably a day or two late, but New Gold has the lowest mining costs of any miner out there, and posted record profits in 2012 (And I believe John Paulson doesn't own any New Gold!) .

     

    Full Year 2012 Highlights
    • Annual operational guidance achieved for fourth consecutive year
    ◦ 2012 gold production increased by 6% to 411,892 ounces from 387,155 ounces
    ◦ 2012 total cash costs(1) decreased to $421 per ounce from $446 per ounce
    • 2012 net earnings increased by 11% to $199 million, or $0.43 per share
    ◦ Adjusted net earnings(2) of $184 million, or $0.40 per share
    • 2012 net cash generated from operations increased to $236 million
    • Finished 2012 with highest ever year end cash balance of $688 million and all corporate debt due in 2020 or beyond

     

    Full 2012 report here:

     

    http://bit.ly/14zhatv
    18 Apr 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, Maya, I'll take a look. You are right to focus on low cost producers who can survive this shakeout.
    mj
    18 Apr 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • MJ: Got the "toe dipping" New Gold shares at the above price and am off to set a stop loss at $6.40 right now.

     

    Also looking at SAND and may fire up a new position tomorrow.

     

    OG: Gold Corp looks good, and their out of ground cash costs are decent, too, at $874. Lots of cash on the sheet.

     

    Note to all: I've been out of miners for about two years, and miners have gone completely off the radar, until last week. This isn't meant to be a challenge, but rather out of curiosity, does anyone know of a miner with the costs of an ounce of gold less than New Gold @ $421/oz.? I'm interested in looking into medium-sized miners right now...not juniors, development projects, or large miners. I've forgotten more than I can remember ;-)
    18 Apr 2013, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • >MAYA-

     

    I have some $AUY that produced a million oz of gold, 9 million oz silver and 139 million pounds of copper according to RDI Research-

     

    http://bit.ly/116CZdg.

     

    I bought the stock a while back because they were a low cost, low debt producer that will be around when others tank according to a couple of reports I read.

     

    Around $12 now with a target of $20-$22.

     

    I believe their cost of production is around $365 per oz

     

    WT
    19 Apr 2013, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • Check out this cost per Oz list
    http://tinyurl.com/bor...

     

    Here is an article that contains a country risk metric
    http://tinyurl.com/clt...

     

    It would be interesting to construct a plot of risk by production cost...
    19 Apr 2013, 05:11 AM Reply Like
  • >FPA-

     

    Thanks for the Yamana article. I had read it a while back but could not find it!

     

    Nice verification on my decision. Cost of production much less than I had believed at just over $200 per oz.

     

    WT
    19 Apr 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for bringing it to my attention Windwood... I bought (AUY) on the open this morning.
    19 Apr 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks, WT. I've held positions in Yamana before. I can't recall why I have this notion or remembrance that management seemed scatterbrained, but maybe two or three years ago I do recall Yamana floundering while other gold stocks rallied. Of course, it's now right back at a share price where I recall the floundering occurred.

     

    Have some brushing up to do with Yamana, of which I recall was a Pete Najerian favorite years ago.

     

    Another miner that has been completely hammered that I need to look into is Kinross Gold. Last September; $17.95, now $5.29.

     

    19 Apr 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • My gold stock of choice is GG.
    This vid is dedicated to Robert Ferguson, who knows a good nano product when he sees one. It's just remarkable.
    http://bit.ly/ZvbcoH
    18 Apr 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • O.G.: That is really cool!

     

    HardToLove
    18 Apr 2013, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, OG-

     

    I thought up a dozen uses for the application during the video.

     

    I'll bet mothers would like to dip their toddlers in the stuff!

     

    WT
    18 Apr 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • OG agree on GG being attractive. Their cost basis and balance sheet should help them weather this storm. PPS near a 5 year low!
    mj
    18 Apr 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • PLUS, you get a small dividend while waiting for them to go back up, and that dividend does not look like it is in jeopardy at this time.

     

    HTL did you see this article? You are such a natural gas maven, do you agree with this? http://seekingalpha.co...
    18 Apr 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • O.G.: Yes, had read it. Haven't really tried to dig in to it yet because I stopped digging into NG a few years back when I realized it would be a long time getting to the point of increasing price when supply/demand finally began correcting.

     

    I harbored a feeling for long time that eventually we would start to price NG in a range of oil to gas energy content like they used to do. Depending on who and when you read, in ~MM cubic feet (appx. MM BTUs), 6, 8, 10 or 12 to 1 bbl oil. But still a long way from that sort of pricing.

     

    If the commodity price collapse continues, and affects oil along with others, the ratio might be reached sooner rather than later, at a lower than anticipated price, *if* U.S. GDP can continue slow growth and industry and generation continues to increase NG usage.

     

    The lowered rig counts suggests that the NG producers are exercising some discipline now, so I think there's hope for the pricing. With so many already-drilled wells supposedly being capped, we shouldn't have to worry about "bubble" pricing as these wells can come on line quickly in areas where there's infrastructure in place.

     

    I think this will bring some stability until all the new LNG export facilities are in place - several years and $ billions each. The pricing *could* then quickly move to what's seen elsewhere in the world, IIRC ~$12/MM cubic feet.

     

    There could be some headwinds to the export plans as other parts of the world are now beginning to explore "fracking" technology too, making "local" NG supplies possible and reducing the viability of the LNG export plans.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    19 Apr 2013, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • In the US NG scene, politics, creative new taxes, regulatory load, and high overheads will tend to suppress production short to medium term. Longer term, the LNG business will be a focus, but as HTL says, the fracing technology djinn is out of the bottle and already starting to pop up around the world (arguably this process will he greatly hastened by the propensity for predatory tax and regulatory schemes in the US to put a cattle prod to the posteriors of American oil men, "encouraging" them to move their efforts elsewhere).

     

    The investment opportunities might best be found with companies with established production in oil-friendly countries who are close to applying the new technology to their existing operations.
    19 Apr 2013, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks, Love!
    19 Apr 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • The reconstitution of the Russell indexes coming up in June, Credit Suisse aims to anticipate...

     

    Sunday, April 14, 8:25 AM ET
    The reconstitution of the Russell indexes coming up in June, Credit Suisse aims to anticipate who's in and who's out. The rules-based approach of the Russell 2000 has allowed arbitragers to profit each summer by front-running the moves, making the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) a poorer play for small cap fans than IJR . Expected among the top 25 adds are ARCP, SRPT, PBYI, ACAD, and WSTC. Among the top 25 deletes: CPST, FCEL, CHKE, OMER, and EML.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    18 Apr 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • I haven't looked at this in years. It is an alternative engine.
    For cars and whatever.

     

    2013 SAE World Congress: Scuderi and investors still challenged
    By Frank Sherosky
    The Scuderi engine is interesting but not investable for most.

     

    "For the record, I own shares in two publicly-traded companies with viable products, not just intellectual properties "
    AXPW Axion and
    " One is Cyclone Power (CYPW) with its external-combustion, recirculating steam engine that will test the speed record at Bonneville this year; "
    Here is the web site
    http://bit.ly/11obKdj

     

    The stock is $0.08 and with the catalyst of the Bonneville test this summer could jump.
    They claim cleaner etc.

     

    To date, Cyclone has over 1,000 hours of running and testing our engines, has achieved verified thermal efficiencies above 30%, and is very close to putting the first of these engine models into small-scale commercial production.
    "Very close" could be forever.

     

    From waste energy and solar thermal power generators to cars, trucks, trains and ships, we see a day when our planet will be powered in a sustainable manner by just One Engine – the Cyclone Engine.
    That this can run from waste heat could be a big deal.

     

    Anyway at 8 cents and Bonneville I think I'll take a flyer on it.

     

    PS for a word on how long it takes an OEM to say yes, it's priceless for Axion investors.

     

    10 K just came out. I haven't looked yet, they may need money soon.
    18 Apr 2013, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • Carnot says that if you get the working fluid REALLY HOT in a steam engine you can achieve similar efficiency to a good ICE. What killed steam engines in cars was the problem of containing hot and high pressure steam in low quality steel tubing. A bit of rust and it blows out thru the weak spot. As they mention, if the water vaporizes in the wound tubing section of the boiler, the resulting steam might not cool the tubing well enough and allow the tubing to overheat and fail.

     

    Sufficiently rugged designs for cars sacrificed efficiency for lifespan. Lower temperatures, lower pressures, etc.

     

    By keeping everything at high pressure (3000+psi) to form a higher density fluid and containing it in small diameter stainless tubing, you just might get away with it. But I wonder how they manage to keep the fluid supercritical until it is injected into the cylinder? I think that would be a tough control problem. They must have a uComputer to monitor things. Use complex controls to allow cheaper materials? OK.

     

    Recycling the waste heat is also important to gaining those last 2-5% efficiency points. Their approach seems to make sense. Devil is in the details fer shur.

     

    This gadget sounds complex enough to compete with an ICE. Example; high pressure water pumps are notorious for failing at rotating or sliding seal interfaces. I do like their eccentric shaft linear to rotary conversion technique. Having a piston only push for that small portion of the rotation cycle with the highest leverage seems a good idea, as shown in the illustrations.

     

    If the guys were very careful and made maximum use of modern materials, well, maybe. I don't plan to wait up nights for the first million sold.

     

    I prefer gas turbines, myself. Bolt a AC generator directly onto the turbine shaft and do all the "transmission" work with power switching electronics. Like CPST does ;-)
    19 Apr 2013, 02:15 AM Reply Like
  • Sili
    They claim it doesn't need a transmission. Which would make it about a third more efficient.
    However reading an apparently long suffering long on Yahoo, I see he is out, until he sees "a car doing donuts at 2 mi an hour" in the parking lot.
    If you cant move a car yet; explain Bonneville this summer?
    I think I will follow his advice until I know more.
    19 Apr 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • I spoke with Jon Springer's wife tonight. She said Jon is feeling better and that the baby is crawling--what a delightful age!
    19 Apr 2013, 03:35 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the update OG - give Jon our best.
    19 Apr 2013, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • O.G: Thanks! Good to hear as he had not been able to reply to my last inquiry, as he had the prior ones, and I was getting quite worried.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Apr 2013, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • Good article and video with SAND CEO (hat tip to Jason Burack). Note comments on how many miners underestimate actual cost of production: http://bit.ly/ZBd38f
    19 Apr 2013, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • Statoil ASA (STO) reports significant Gullfaks discovery (inplay)
    Bought more STO at open today
    19 Apr 2013, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • I just read an article that stated MCD's dollar menu is failing to bring in sales. Is this a sign of a bad economy or a bad menu? Any opinions?
    19 Apr 2013, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • OG: Ever since the introduction of the dollar menu, McDonald's USA franchisees have getting creamed on food costs (I have read and also heard through my eatery pals thus). It's also affecting their sales of the Big Mac and the Quarter Pounder. For $2 one can buy two dollar burgers with cheese, onions and pickles, which in weight nearly equal, or does equal, one Quarter Pounder, which around here costs $3.69.

     

    I was in McDonald's the other day, because I like their sweet tea for a buck. Not sure what their large cup size was, but it has shrunk. And so...I won't be back.

     

    Micky D's will soon be dropping their Angus burger. A while back I taste tested and it was terrible. Further, and I think this is wildly underrated, is that now MacDonald's posts the calorie intake on the menu board, which they never before did. Something like 1400 calories for a medium fries, a medium drink, and a Quarter Pounder. Almost revolting.

     

    So it's both; the morphing menu is failing, as well as sales. And frankly, as FPA pointed out, the service is nearly repulsive.

     

    What I love <snark> is that they are hugely promoting wraps, as well as offering 2 for 1s via snail mail. Last week, I received via snail mail with by far the most packed discount coupon pamphlet I have ever seen from the Golden Arches.

     

    To me, that signifies the initial stages of desperation.
    19 Apr 2013, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • >OG

     

    I am attaching the current menu for a popular restaurant in my vicinity. Check out the lunch specials for under $6.00 including soup, a drink, and fries, or a deluxe cheeseburger (1/3 pound) with fries, lettuce, tomato, cole slaw and a pickle for $5.00. This place is always busy while the Burger King on one side and the McDs on the other are, well... surviving.

     

    http://bit.ly/ZbYgoh.

     

    The food is excellent, service immediate and the rest rooms have paper towels- not blow dryers. Think about opening that door in the fast food joint with clean hands when you know the person before you didn't even wash their hands.

     

    You get all this plus you don't have to wipe down your own greasy table, or stand in a line, you get a waitperson, and you aren't expected to bus your own table. I don't know about you but I gave up busing tables in college.

     

    It's not for no reason that they call it junk food. The fast food places are being out-classed by the local diners in my area. They will not get much business from me or anyone else that seeks good food- good value.

     

    WT
    20 Apr 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • Looks like a nice place and more power to them... $7 with tax and tip for a decent lunch is a very good price, but keep in mind that same 7 bucks could also buy maybe a gallon of milk, a dozen eggs, and a loaf of bread...which goes a bit farther. Lots more people are having to make such choices.
    20 Apr 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • It's contraction, deflation, asphyxiation... the marginal dollars just ain't there in the pockets of your mickeyD's customer.... everyone's pulling in their horns--and if you're near the margin, trips to McDonald's is one of the things you can cut out the easiest.. When the first of the month rolls around and is gone, and if you're lucky all the hard bills are paid, if what you've got left for the month to eat and drive is maybe one or two hundred dollars... you're heading to walmart for basics and food: TP, milk, macaroni, ramen, oatmeal, not McDonalds...
    19 Apr 2013, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • I think they drove customers off with high prices and degraded service. People got tired of it and voted with their feet.
    19 Apr 2013, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • >481086-

     

    To your point-
    My area has not been hit as badly as many many others with 12 colleges and NYS government headquartered here but the capitol area does have negligible growth and thousands of people are living closer to their wallets than ever before With 8% unemployment up from 5.9% a couple of years ago does show in people's tastes.

     

    If you go into a restaurant more likely than not you will see a Restaurant.com, Social Living or Groupon on the table.

     

    WT
    20 Apr 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Indonesia targets 200MW of (C)CHP installed.

     

    Decent video woth watching. Thanks to Jesinternational at InvestorVillage for the post.

     

    http://bit.ly/11qygDT

     

    Focus needed to get around the accents as they present in English.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Apr 2013, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): May have been seen here, but I haven't looked at it.

     

    Wrightspeed's discussion of truck retro-fits and why trucks rather than cars.

     

    http://bit.ly/12swIvf

     

    HardToLove
    20 Apr 2013, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • Something to think about re: $SAND

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    WT
    20 Apr 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • WWT: An excellent article IMO. Thanks!

     

    HardToLove
    20 Apr 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Ditto. Thanks WT!

     

    (I upped my stop loss on New Gold to $6.80. Worst case scenario now is that I get taken out with enough profit to buy myself and a friend chocolate raspberry double malt milkshakes;-)
    20 Apr 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Re: LYNAS

     

    Got this from the ASX website- Cash flo report as of 19 April.

     

    http://bit.ly/11zwui9

     

    Windwood Trader
    21 Apr 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • WWT: The Lynas site has a companion q report.

     

    http://bit.ly/ZBVyos

     

    It's the one that doesn't have "appendix".

     

    HardToLove
    21 Apr 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • HTL>

     

    This must have gone up right after I got frustrated and went to the ASX site. The one you spotted is much more informative than the 8K.

     

    WTL
    21 Apr 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • "This is no short term dynamic, but will affect the economy for decades".

     

    Steven Hansen touches on something I know I've mentioned in the past, and likely others have touched on it too.

     

    "Housing And Auto Sectors May Be Weak For Decades"

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    This doesn't mean $ can't be made in the sectors, of course, as we work in a market where reality (main-street economy) matters little and only sporadically, thanks to the money pump of financial assets.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Apr 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Anyone else see this from Glen Beck on the boston bombers.. It will be interesting to see the outcome on this issue tonight.

     

    http://bit.ly/ZJ6BeD

     

    Second video is the better and shorter one.
    22 Apr 2013, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • I wonder if the Glen Beck issue has anything to do with these unanswered questions.

     

    http://bit.ly/17J7loA
    22 Apr 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • JS Kim on the gold manipulation.

     

    http://bit.ly/14J8nVK
    22 Apr 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • >DG-

     

    I get the feeling that Kim is not especially fond of the banking system.

     

    Good article-
    Thanks!

     

    Windwood Trader
    22 Apr 2013, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • I was first introduced to him here on seeking alpha. He is not around on this site very much any more but I like his stuff.

     

    I am curious just WHO likes bankers besides of course their call girls and other bankers.
    22 Apr 2013, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Politicians...
    22 Apr 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Yep your right, but I think we can count them in the call girl column. All the prostitutes in one column so to speak. LOL
    22 Apr 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • I think that you just insulted prostitutes.
    22 Apr 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Ummm, I think your probably right. Must get down to court street (red light district) and apologize.
    22 Apr 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • True, true, form does not always follow function...
    22 Apr 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Northwest territorial mint still has silver. Check out the stagecoach silver or as OG once pointed out the silver bullets.

     

    http://bit.ly/15Adw1D
    22 Apr 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • So does First Majestic, but at a 15% premium:

     

    http://bit.ly/WqyyrZ

     

    Listed price today is $27.00/oz. Last week they listed at 27.50.

     

    Spot at the moment is 23.40ish.

     

    Those Stagecoach rounds in quantities less than 50 oz are quoted today at $27.54.

     

    Silver is physically available, but at a a significant premium to spot.
    22 Apr 2013, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • 23.40ish is paper price not physical price. It has come to this. Paper metals are lower in value for a reason. Thanks for the first majestic info. Much appreciated.
    22 Apr 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • First Majestic shipping cost is too much. Its coming from Canada so there is a very high charge. 80 Ozs to ohio was over $70.00 US. That is adding a lot more premium to the cost. Best stick with Northwest territorial mint since shipping to continental usa is free. Not sure if that free shipping requires a 50 ounce minimum purchase.

     

    I was going to buy some of First majestic till I saw that shipping fee.I wanted to buy some of those Mayan stamped coins.
    22 Apr 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • The Equivalent Of Cyprus Gold Reserves Have Just Gone Offline

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    22 Apr 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Update, Just ordered more stagecoach silver. Shipping is free for orders of 50 ozs or more. Todays price was $25.09 per oz for orders under 100 ozs. I think that is an awesome price but its a 10 week delivery time. The only down side but they have always delivered my stuff in the past. I have ordered twice in the past from them. I ordered stage coach silver and Great Panther silver from them in the past.
    22 Apr 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • First Majestic was the last silver miner I sold last year... Partly due to the smart direct marketing of silver.
    22 Apr 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Amazing story, Smaturin. Thanks. I had missed that one.

     

    Speaking as someone who once designed factory operations, I would quibble with the idea that the mass destruction wrought would cut the mine's production by 50%. For a long time, it will likely reduce production by a lot more, perhaps 90% or more. Efficiency will be terrible for the remaining operation, and given the prevailing metal market, the company could well elect to suspend operations and mothball the damaged mine until prices improve.

     

    The bifurcation of paper and physical metals continues, with evidence like this adding weight to the reality.

     

    What could also happen is that the expert analysts employed by the major manipulators could add new data to their models and we could see the manipulation accelerated, bringing the down spike to a point followed by a swift reversal (as soon as the manipulators can ease out of their short positions and go long).
    22 Apr 2013, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • TB I pasted that on the 17th above, its in the link, but with a disclaimer about the comex default. You might have just thought another of DG's copper colander moments. LOL

     

    Previous post:

     

    "Could not decide if I should post this..I have no idea of the accuracy of it but if it is true you should know. Is the Comex coming up on a default? That would explain many things that have happened from the plunge in physical metals to the plunge in price as noted below."

     

    http://bit.ly/12m9NBU
    22 Apr 2013, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • My comment to SMarturin was in reference to the big cave in story. And I did miss it (I was getting error messages from SA that day on most links).

     

    I knew I must have missed it somewhere.
    23 Apr 2013, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • re: LYNAS

     

    Audio link to 19 April investor call emailed to me by Lynas this am.
    (also posted on REE.)

     

    http://bit.ly/ZBVyos

     

    Windwood Trader
    22 Apr 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Check out the action on (GOOG) this morning... be sure to chart it at one minute intervals.

     

    Now look back starting last Wednesday when the villains were setting up the play. You have to have hundreds of millions to move something like Google around like that. Of course, the responsible players operate under different rules as they don't need to actually have money in their accounts. Don't hold your breath waiting for the SEC to investigate either.
    22 Apr 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • >FPA-

     

    Seems like $YHOO has similar, albeit more obviously volatile characteristics for the same time frame.

     

    WT
    23 Apr 2013, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • Has anyone bought/sold physical metal since the beginning of the manipulation?
    Can you share what the paper price was compared to what you paid/sold at?

     

    Winwood Trader
    22 Apr 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Selling physical is years away. Buying is now as money becomes available. Right now is a good time to buy I believe but every stinking time I preach on the stuff the sky falls so I will refrain from everything but the facts.Price today paper ended at $23.40 http://bit.ly/13PXfpm
    and I was able to buy from northwest territorial mint at $25.09 if you purchase at least 50 ozs the shipping is free.

     

    Manyplaces are still trying to get around $29-30 for an ounce still if you can get it. Thats what I have been seeing. The premiums have gone through the roof is one way of putting it or the other side of that coin is physical has not plunged like paper metals. You decided.
    22 Apr 2013, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • >DG-

     

    Thanks for that response. I know you don't want to but could you now sell your $25.09 just bought stuff to the outfit selling at $29-$30? What price are they buying for?

     

    I'm sure there is quite a spread, but what is typical for a net-net deal do you think?

     

    Windwood Trader
    22 Apr 2013, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • You could probably make that on Ebay, WT. But, that is before your time and the expenses include:
    Paying fees for the auction and for the use of paypal, for the packaging to mail it, plus your tax bite on the profit which is 25% and maybe some other expense I haven't thought of! You'd need to have some volume to make it worth your while. Also, some states require sales tax so then you might have a state/local tax filing to do depending on your shipping location.
    23 Apr 2013, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks, OG-

     

    I was trying to get a feel as to the practical extent of liquidity. I know the stuff would require some additional work- Maybe some additional expense like you say- possibly income, sales taxes and shipping and I assume that it could be sold back to the dealer at a certain discount.

     

    My perception is that PMs are more like a house or a car than a security as far as marketable flexibility.

     

    WT
    23 Apr 2013, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • It is extremely liquid.
    For instance, here is http://bit.ly/PK94Sg, which shows the premium they collect between the buy and sell prices--on everything from graded coins to bullion including platinum, palladium, gold and silver. They are always sellers, and they are always buyers. Not so with some local shops. Some stop buying when prices get high. They just don't have the $ to buy back competitively.
    23 Apr 2013, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • >guns Re: silver prices.

     

    I received an invoice today from NTM for my recent silver purchase. They quoted me a delivery date in mid-June!

     

    It appears they are also low or out of inventory for "stagecoach" silver bullion.

     

    Price was in the $25 range.
    27 Apr 2013, 02:56 AM Reply Like
  • They seem to always be about 10 weeks on delivery. They have lots of silver blanks and they do their runs based on what ever is ordered. I think every coin is run from the same set of blanks, they just change the dies, but they always deliver. So your silver is being held for safe keeping at NWTM for now and you got it paid for. Its not in the COMEX warehouse thankfully.
    27 Apr 2013, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • Puppet masters make the rules they dont live by the rules.
    22 Apr 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Goldman speaks-

     

    The world quakes-

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Manipulators at work-

     

    Windwood Trader
    23 Apr 2013, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • Grant Williams letter on Mauldin Economics-
    Fascinating anatomy of a gold manipulation plus many other gems of interest.

     

    http://bit.ly/126PGGR

     

    WT
    23 Apr 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Any ideas on what just happened on the S&P?
    23 Apr 2013, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • According to ZeroHedge, someone hacked AP's twitter account, and they used it to say there was an explosion at the WH... I happened to be watching the S&P and saw it drop like a stone. It's since recovered. Scary ....
    23 Apr 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • It's all of them. Dow, Global Dow, Nasdeq
    23 Apr 2013, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • rumor that white house was hacked/bombed, turns out not true
    23 Apr 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • I knew it was too good to be true. Obama was supposedly injured in that hacked twitter.
    23 Apr 2013, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Wonder if someone cashed in some short positions...
    23 Apr 2013, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • A group calling themselves the Syrian Electronic Army has claimed responsibility for the AP hacked tweet:

     

    http://bit.ly/17VAEXU
    23 Apr 2013, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • It's all of them. Dow, Global Dow, Nasdeq

     

    AP twitter account was hacked.

     

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Associated Press says its Twitter account has been hacked, as the Twitter feed falsely said that there had been two explosions at the White House. The tweet from the AP account briefly caused U.S. stocks SPX +0.87% to drop. White House spokesman Jay Carney is holding his daily press conference as usual.

     

    From A Twitter Hack To The Complete Evaporation Of All Market Liquidity In One Chart
    http://bit.ly/11hOrCU
    23 Apr 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • That little exercise was quite instructive. To move the Indexes like that, all of their component parts must have dropped... Everything moved in seconds.
    23 Apr 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Somehow they must have an AP feed into the algos....all of them.
    23 Apr 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Probably twitter/headline-reading trading programs caused it. Trend-following programs then kicked in.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Apr 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • This has been a test, and only a test. When they do this for real, watch out. More copy cats coming?
    23 Apr 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • These algos are scary stuff… that move represented billions…
    How many people had their positions cancelled at a loss because of trailing stops?

     

    They have special feeds, so their trades are faster than regular investors. They can kill you with that timing difference. As for me, I stopped using trailing stops a few years ago when silly me realized that the big players could see the stop orders. Being able to see them would be like seeing fruit on the tree ready for the picking...
    23 Apr 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • >Still-

     

    I don't want to even think about that-

     

    Windwood Trader
    24 Apr 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • There doesn't seem to be any driver for this mild rally. http://on.mktw.net/ZKFG2U In fact I would think a slight decline or relatively flat trajectory would be in order.
    23 Apr 2013, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • (PSEC) is having a nice pop today... it goes Ex this week.
    23 Apr 2013, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • Gold gets a down tick from Deutsche Bank- Mixed emotions.

     

    http://bit.ly/15Gv0tp

     

    $AAPL up 2%+ at $407

     

    WT
    23 Apr 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Took two days - day one partial fill and today completed 2x2K $0.8602. Right after my orders filled, pps rocketed to $0.90.

     

    In the past, this sort of action has sometimes been followed by good news PR. We suspect a news leak is the usual cause.

     

    Just an FYI.

     

    Bill
    23 Apr 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • >HTL-

     

    I need you to give me some timing pointers!

     

    Way to go!

     

    Windwood Trader
    23 Apr 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • WWT; On this one, no can do. I violated my plan betting on sustained change over the week in buy:sell and my read of watching the action throughout the day.

     

    Here's what my plan was, and still would work I think.

     

    http://bit.ly/XUNba4

     

    As it turns out, with a reasonably "decent" volume today and the late-day surge above and away from the descending blue line, I may have inadvertently executed my "more risky" plan even though today I put the orders in early saying "What the heck - let's gamble a bit".

     

    Tomorrow should tell whether I'm a dunce for leaving the plan or prescient.

     

    If price continues up tomorrow and volume comes in, I think I'm good to go.

     

    Yesterday's and today's action by me was encouraged by my take that price was being held low so that shorters could cover and MMs could cover and/or replenish their portfolio. In this scenario, I think MMs usually hit some point that says "OK. Let's let it move up so we can sell into it". If it turns out there is PR news, well "I'd rather be lucky than good"!

     

    If we do start a leg up, I think it'll blow right through my descending purple lines on the chart and go for at least the 50-day SMA - currently ~$0.94. A little overshoot should give us $0.96-$0.98 range I would think. If momo traders jump in, maybe more.

     

    With a quarterly report likely, I guess, in early-to-mid June, there should be an announcement in the next few weeks. There's often a rise heading into the report, even though expectations have been low. This time I suspect expectations might be higher.

     

    A *lot* of guesswork and ignorance here though ...
    HardToLove
    23 Apr 2013, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Good job HTL!
    23 Apr 2013, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • Robert: The bear still might eat me - only time will tell.! =>8-O

     

    HardToLove
    23 Apr 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • >HTL-

     

    I'm truly impressed with your analytic skills. If I had been looking at the Buy/Sell transition you illustrated I would have been in there biting chunks as it went up smiling all the way.

     

    I scoured the links and news and found nothing of note. I did see an article about a Skaneateles, NY multi turbine installation-

     

    There is a Chinese buying series in play (not new) that is covered by the following link:

     

    http://bit.ly/14NlWDH

     

    Windwood Trader
    23 Apr 2013, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • WWT: That Chinese one was reacted to when it came out. Those pops generally only last a few days at most. *If* there was a news leak, we generally don't see the real PR until a day or two later.

     

    The timing and volume of what I think *might* have been related to news leak was a bit different though. It came a bit later and didn't have as much strength (volume) as commonly seen. The volume might be due to the late timing of the move, *if* there was a news leak, or might have been the "step 2" of shorters/MMS: price low, buy everything up 'till price $0.xxxx to cover. Any bots that were following trend could jump in too. Momo players might have had trailing buy stops (I've used these a couple times with some success) and could have added to the volume as well.

     

    Like I told Robert, the bear could still eat me here.

     

    Thanks for the kudos on skills, but I don't think I'm that strong yet. So much still unknown and so much still experimental with me.

     

    I hope someday to have a real track record I can look at and decide that I really have learned a lot and, especially, how to effectively apply it. This latter is important I think, as I had some misses on SPY before I recognized that "Bennie and the Feds"

     

    http://bit.ly/11A9cf2

     

    were essentially controlling the markets. And now we find out the futures market controls it because futures on the SPX/SPY trades 12 times the volume of SPY! This was a change as several years ago I did successfully predict a several months more rise in the S&P. That was before QE et al, IIRC. Could've been a one-off lucky shot though.

     

    Living and learning (I hope!).

     

    HardToLove
    23 Apr 2013, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • For you TA gold geeks, the following link about Comex gold futures looks quite bearish:

     

    http://bit.ly/11id0Qc

     

    I raised the stop limit last night on New Gold to $6.98, which got taken out early today in trading, leaving me a couple hundred and change toward the plus. Beside the above chart and the extensive TA in the above link, along with more research earlier today from Kitco, I'm holding off reentering a position in New Gold, or establishing new(er) ones in Silver Wheaton or Sandstorm.

     

    Here's some more Comex futures analytics from Kitco, including silver, platinum, palladium as well as gold (hit tabs at the chart bottom to view futures for each PM):

     

    http://bit.ly/10xn4Kc

     

    Physical demand we all know is surging, as today the US mint temporarily suspended minting 1/10th ounce gold coins.

     

    Sure does seem manipulation is running rampant.
    23 Apr 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Maya-

     

    Re: Gold

     

    For what it's worth I didn't want to be totally out of metals so I got some leaps in $AUY January 2015 $13Calls
    and $SLW Sept '13 $24Calls.

     

    I worry about $SAND because of the margins necessary for gold miners while silver is a little looser.

     

    Still hanging onto my $PAL also.

     

    Windwood Trader
    23 Apr 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Durable-goods orders sink 5.7% in March

     

    Expected 3.2% decline but got 5.7% in March. Mostly due to jetliner bookings (down 48%), but report was still softer than expected. Autos and parts +0.2%, smallest increase so far this year.

     

    Lots of other good details in the article.

     

    http://on.mktw.net/13u...

     

    HardToLove
    24 Apr 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • >HTL-

     

    Thanks, A worthwhile read.

     

    One of the first things I learned in my training program at Dean Witter 114 years ago was-

     

    "The economy isn't viable until Joe-six-pack can buy a refrigerator."

     

    This single indicator overrules all else.

     

    Windwood Trader
    24 Apr 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • WWT: And then we get conflicting signals from one that should know: "In fact, freight tonnage in the U.S. is at the highest level in 10 years".

     

    "PACCAR Management Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript".

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I'm only on the first page, but these and RR transcripts often clear the haze from what we get in lame-stream media and from politicians and jiggered government statistics.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    24 Apr 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • HTL, Maybe they are hauling SNAP cards or Bennys dollars.
    24 Apr 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • D.G.: Bennies dollars travel by wire. So they must be hauling the copper wire and fiber-optic cables. In fact, that latter item must be big tonnage to satisfy the HFTs that bring us the flash crashes, thank you very much.

     

    Speaking of witch, Santelli had a good video this morning regarding HFT and *broken* market structure, courtesy of the SEC.

     

    Worth a watch. The ending conclusion and discussion of the new market structures are good thoughts.

     

    http://bit.ly/11PoXvR

     

    HardToLove
    24 Apr 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • HTL:

     

    The Good News: Railroads are busy!

     

    The Real News: Railroads are busy hauling imports we should be making for ourselves but don't.

     

    The Bad News: The better the Railroads and Dry Freight do, the worse we do.

     

    The Possible News: The resurgence of oil production, which is primarily traveling by rail because the production no longer coincides with existing pipelines, is a possible factor.
    24 Apr 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Just noticed I posted "witch" LoL! Fruedian slip there?

     

    HardToLove.
    24 Apr 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • TB: Yep. Lots of inter-modal traffic at (NSC).

     

    However, what I wonder is that hauling those imports that we should be making indicates someone is buying here.

     

    Looking down the road at potentially continued lowering of domestically-produced energy, we might see those currently-imported items get made here, just as happened after a couple decades with what we used to *exclusively* import from Japan back in the '70s, 80s' ...

     

    Ah! I see my wine glass is half-full - slide it over here, will ya?

     

    HardToLove
    24 Apr 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Pretty good interview IMHO.

     

    Nothing earth shattering and surely cautious. The chairman backed off a bit from his opening comments of a 29% increase in DAF (European) orders to the later pages where he admitted some of that could "prebuy" - time delta not clearly defined, and that the fourth quarter may be soft

     

    Is 6% a good return for revenues after tax in the industry?

     

    WT
    24 Apr 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • >HTL-

     

    "witch"- Witch can apply to both male & female. Wizard works as well. Might be better suited for Ben. He sure can pull the cat out of the hat!

     

    WT
    24 Apr 2013, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • More conflicting signals: "Struggling homeowners take record share of refinancing".

     

    My thinking is that lower pay, fewer hours, fewer in the work force, ...

     

    http://on.mktw.net/11P...

     

    HardToLove
    24 Apr 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • They can't sell their houses so they either refinance or default. My son just went through that AGAIN in L.A. County. Banks go along because it IS cash flow albeit at an inadequate rate, preferable to an empty non-performing asset.

     

    Many thousand defaulted and bank-owned houses are being acquired by syndicates and LLPs formed to buy these and RENT them out, sometimes to the existing occupants, but don't have any real intent to sell- Yet

     

    I keep looking for a Seeking Alpha piece analyzing the true housing situation and who is buying, renting, squatting or whatever and how many more houses can be built without hitting saturation.

     

    Windwood Trader
    24 Apr 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Baby boomers hitting retirement age at 10,000 PER DAY, for the next 19 years. That is going to add a lot to the homes for sale since many baby boomers are home owners. I can see no recovery in housing with these numbers coming up and those in a position to buy burdened by student loans. Wait till they start dieing at those numbers.
    24 Apr 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • >DG-

     

    Agree-

     

    The baby boomers are most likely to want just one address as well as they slow down a bit, instead of a get-away-home and a regular residence.

     

    Going further, single family homes come out second to condos- for those older folks that like to travel or otherwise shun home maintenance.

     

    Finally, many may just prefer to rent especially if there is no one to take over the house when it is no longer needed.

     

    None of these considerations would be conducive to a strengthening housing market, IMHO.

     

    Windwood Trader
    24 Apr 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • I think all the reverse mortgage ads we see is directly attributable to the government making these financing arrangements easier for boomers retiring whose major (declining) asset is the home, which they can't sell. So, more seniors will do reverse mortgages. (Then, the older partner dies and the younger one has to pay off the balance or move out because the younger one was too young to qualify for the mortgage in the first place, so they left her name off the documents and some wise alack salesman said, "Don't worry!"). Then we will see the articles, " I got robbed of my paid for home". Yeah, don't take a reverse mortgage on one person's life to pay off all your debts if you have no way to pay off the reverse mortgage when your partner dies.That's just common sense.
    Or, scenario #2: The kids want the house but they can't refinance and the government winds up owning all of this boomer real esate.
    Watch that become another boondoggle in a decade or so
    Meanwhile, Henry Winkler, Fred Thompson, Robert Wagner and that guy from MASH will make some coin peddling this crap on TV to people who don't understand what they are buying into.
    24 Apr 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • Demand for physical now in panic mode?

     

    http://bit.ly/10zWqAi
    24 Apr 2013, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Hi DG,
    I wouldn't say panic mode, but I would say that the disconnect between paper and physical metals is very visible right now.
    24 Apr 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • I still think silver and gold is going to fall further. I wouldn't be a heavy buyer now.
    24 Apr 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Hi OG,
    PM pricing is a crap shoot right now. Most PM dealers are out of physical and have a long (6-8 week) waiting periods if ordered straight from a mint (NWT). The premium is high ($1.50-3.00 an oz. for silver) above spot. Paper PMs are easy to find, unfortunately PMs are priced in paper and the disconnect is growing. Until the physical metals find a real market value, we don't really know valuation. We do know that supply is smaller than demand, at this point. The paper PM price may drop some more, but the price of physical spot plus premiums will likely go up. JMHO
    24 Apr 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Jewelry silver (mostly .925 Sterling) is still being sold at bullion rates, and no shortages (so far), but the problem is that:

     

    A. Its not .999, so you have to deduct .074 for the alloy to equate to top quality bullion

     

    B. The markup for the jewelry "findings" (which includes plate and wire goods, though large plate purchases have the least markup) is usually about the same as for coins or collectibles

     

    I recommend looking at Rio Grande for competitive rates, if this is something of interest to anyone. We are loading up at these rates, since I expect:

     

    1. The major jewelry dealers to alter their markups to echo what we are seeing with physical elsewhere

     

    2. This is "a" bottom, but perhaps not "the" bottom. At these prices, we are averaging down our wholesale cost for silver findings, which helps our current sales, and since we are just entering our spring busy season, its a timely event for us.
    24 Apr 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • One dealer I have dealt with in the past has an interesting disclaimer at the top of his web page. http://bit.ly/15HzQ9S
    24 Apr 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • I am saying this not because pm hasn't established a definite bottom, but because I believe we are seeing the end of the bull sometime soon, and the metals will go down with the markets, imo. I think there are further shake ups in the mining sector to come. I am not bullish here. It doesn't matter what the fundamentals say for the pm''s, it matters whether the stock market reverses in the next quarter. It will take many quarters for the fundamentals to catch up with the market pressures. Just my opinion, I've been looking at long term charts comparing this DOW 14000+ to the last time round and superimposing precious metals on my charts.
    I've been waiting for silver to fall to this level since it was up near $50 and stated my $22-23 range then.
    The next leg down will land us around $19.00.
    Staying around $23 is just temporary.
    That's what I think, that
    is how I am playing it.

     

    By the way, SIVR costs more to buy than Silver Wheaton!!
    24 Apr 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • I agree-

     

    We have to separate the investor from the public bling buyer.
    24 Apr 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Well, if you can't get what you want via the approved process, go through the back door. GE Capital has notified some gun shops that they can no longer lend to them, per CNBC. No other details, but from my TFH POV, presumption is that government interference in private markets to accomplish goals has been demonstrated over and over and ... is occurring again.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Apr 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Hi HTL,
    If I remember correctly, wasn't GE one of the TBTF receivers? Political payback?
    24 Apr 2013, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed: I can't recall if GE (Capital?) got some or not. But Immelt was head of the jobs council, so I'm sure he can be privy to, and respond to, political currents. I suspect also that's why as member of the jobs council, it was never brought up why GE has so many thousands of jobs going to China and other place, e.g. their wind generator business.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Apr 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • GE has every right to decide who they want to lend to.

     

    And we have every right to never buy another appliance, seek another loan, or buy any other consumer electronic, home improvement, healthcare, lighting or houseware item from them again. And to vote against every local electric, gas, water, nuclear, marine or aviation plant that has the GE ("Government Entity") brand on it.

     

    Fair's fair.

     

    Of course, you and I are making our decision as citizens with our own money and conscience. Immelt is using shareholders' money to pay for his sycophancy...
    24 Apr 2013, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • In every sphere conservatives need to stop subsidizing and underwriting their sworn enemies.
    24 Apr 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • I wonder how many weapon systems GE has made and how many people were killed by those weapon systems over the years. But allow a citizen to protect himself and its a problem. Talk about something that is so hypocritical it simply baffles the mind. Emelt is a fool.

     

    Just so everyone knows it was the child of a GE executive that killed all those kids in Newtown. He works as the vice president of taxes for GE Energy Financial Services, and lives with his new wife on a sprawling street glittered with multimillion-dollar homes.

     

    Soooooo hypocritical.

     

    Read more: http://bit.ly/YSfxiG
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
    24 Apr 2013, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • GE was most definitely bailed out.
    24 Apr 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • They got 5 billion dollars and its still not paid back as far as I know. Assuming I recall correctly. It could have been 16 billion over several loans with all but 5 billion paid back.
    24 Apr 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • I did a little digging and found a listing of all TARP recipients, their bailout amounts and what their balance is.
    I did not find GE but it may be under a different name I suppose.

     

    You can do a sort by alpha to make the list easier to read.

     

    http://bit.ly/nWSGgH

     

    Windwood Trader
    24 Apr 2013, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • Here you go, WT. The FDIC underwrote 139 Bil in debt, despite the fact that GE is not a bank and they went for bailouts multiple times. I remember this very well, particularly because you could not short GE they were on that do not short list, the one I call Most Favored Company Status. (After that, GE paid fines for misreporting their financial status. If I recall correctly, they paid the fines out of bail out funds and none of their officers suffered any repercussions).
    http://nyti.ms/YToEzC
    25 Apr 2013, 01:50 AM Reply Like
  • Here is the letter GE wrote to its investors about its bailout:
    http://invent.ge/YTs3yt
    25 Apr 2013, 02:12 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks- OG

     

    No TARP money but their loans were backed by the FDIC.

     

    Which other fair haired beneficiaries enjoyed the FDIC largess?

     

    Windwood Trader
    25 Apr 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • GE seems to have a bit of a history with this sort of thing going way back. I think Steinmetz at one point called for world socialism with GE running it. Here's a little blurb about Steinmetz.

     

    http://bit.ly/13xfPyz
    25 Apr 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • At one time GE had 45,000 EEs in Schenectady, home of the working Steinmetz. GE built over 40 homes for its elite, including Steinmetz. Some are still in ownership of the families of the original owners. Steinmetz' former home and several others of that age, all mansions or at least posh Victorians with 15-20 rooms are owned by Union College now- the rest held privately.

     

    GE's workforce tailed down over the years to somewhere around 8500 with spin-offs and reduced wartime need responsible. Then a guy named Welch decided to build turbines in So. Carolina, Mexico and elsewhere instead of Schenectady leaving a current work force of around 1900. Did wonders for the economy.

     

    Schenectady now has a total population of about 35,000 down from its peak of 100,000.

     

    WT
    25 Apr 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • New-Car Sales Fall 10.2% in Europe, Continuing Slump
    http://nyti.ms/ZO1Ktv;
    24 Apr 2013, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • PM physical shortages now global. From Mineweb

     

    http://bit.ly/12K9DVi
    25 Apr 2013, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • Todays moves in gold and silver. There I did it, I said something, expect all hell to break loose now and it plunge.

     

    http://bit.ly/14ceuBB
    25 Apr 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • "I said something, expect all hell to break loose now and it plunge."

     

    :-)
    25 Apr 2013, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • Bell curve working, 2nd downleg will commence when bell is complete...
    25 Apr 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Daily job cuts by company and location. See if you are invested in any of these.

     

    http://bit.ly/cBqSqC
    25 Apr 2013, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • >DG-

     

    Interesting link- most definitely more laying off than hiring but I went to who's hiring and lookie what I found-

     

    GE hiring 200 in Louisville to build front loader washer dryers- first in the country. They say they're bringing jobs back to the USA.

     

    http://bit.ly/YUXFDV
    25 Apr 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Remember the boycott.
    25 Apr 2013, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Yep-
    I have an aversion to GE on most things.

     

    It's just such a 180 degree change from what the company once was and many of the folks still there started in the late fifties-early 60s.

     

    Truly the end of an era.
    25 Apr 2013, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • I am going to have to work harder to get the price to collapse. So here it is.

     

    There are reports that certain Swiss banks are also prohibiting clients taking delivery of their gold bullion and will now only settle in paper currency. This in conjunction with the massive drawdown in COMEX gold inventories is leading to concerns of a default in the gold market which is further increasing demand.

     

    http://bit.ly/13xnayb
    25 Apr 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Central banks openly buying stocks. This saga is becoming a never ending story down a very dark road.

     

    Could anything possibly go wrong? Stocks to spiral upwards indefinitely?

     

    http://bit.ly/13xBxmc
    25 Apr 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Physical inventories plunge worldwide.

     

    http://bit.ly/12KJDcp

     

    CBOE off line. Are they running out of physical?

     

    http://bit.ly/13xEa7C

     

    All just a coincidence I am sure and options on metals are just fine.
    25 Apr 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • <
    ..., Hayman Capital’s Kyle Bass is known for having stated that, “We went and looked at the Comex…[they had] $80B in open interest and $2.7B (3.3%) in deliverables at the time…[so] it’s actually an easy decision if you’re a fiduciary…you go get [your gold], and let them worry about the rest.”
    <
    25 Apr 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • That is a great interview. They may not have the 2.7 billion deliverables any more. Pucker factor getting tighter.
    25 Apr 2013, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • A little update on the University's gold purchases that Kyle Bass advised.

     

    http://bit.ly/ZnGT3U
    25 Apr 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Trivia question. Where does the L-cysteine in your bread come from.

     

    http://bit.ly/12L1SOR
    25 Apr 2013, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Obama's stash.
    25 Apr 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • I pray not!!!
    25 Apr 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Remember Solyent Green?

     

    It's people!!
    25 Apr 2013, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • Hmmm, solyent bread. Never thought of it that way. We are getting closer to that reality. Dead chinamens hair today, flesh tomorrow.
    26 Apr 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Run on physical at JPM vault sees 65% gone in the past 24 hours. This is getting intense!!!

     

    http://bit.ly/14TqbNY

     

    That should get the price to plunge now or the sky fall. I have really opened my mouth.
    25 Apr 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • For those who do not know where "...across the street at 33 Liberty St." is, that's the New York address for the NY Federal Reserve.

     

    Could be.

     

    OTOH, I'm wondering if any European central banks had loaned a bunch of gold to JPM, and just got it back in a large lump...
    25 Apr 2013, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • TB: Maybe unwinding the re-hypothication contracts?

     

    HardToLove
    25 Apr 2013, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Could well be...

     

    But I keep looking at the entire European continent full of big banks in deep guano, and the Basil concept floating around loose of turning gold into a tier one asset class...

     

    And Physical metal departing from paper prices like mad - as if a long list of very inside insiders were scraping around after every physical ounce they could scrounge...

     

    Available supplies vanishing from large vault operations like water on a Lithium Ion battery pack...

     

    It couldn't be that the sovereign debt crisis is entering a new and trickier phase, could it?

     

    If that gold DID truck across Liberty Street, its just a new bagman taking delivery and transshipping the goods east.

     

    It will get really surreal if we soon see the empty vault operators offering gold owners large fees to accept fiat currency instead of their vanished gold... WHILE gold prices are held down by mountains of weightless paper gold.

     

    I am playing one of my favorite "epic music mixes" in the background, and I must say, this situation has all the telltales for "epicness".
    25 Apr 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • >Trip-

     

    "...across the street at 33 Liberty St."

     

    I spent many a lunch hour right around the corner at the White Horse Tavern. Ah, memories of happier times.

     

    WT
    25 Apr 2013, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • Someone already owns that gold. It shouldn't make a difference to the price where it is stored.
    27 Apr 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Gee, I wonder if Bernie Maddoff and Jon Corzine keep their gold there?That would account for the shortages if they pulled theirs out.
    25 Apr 2013, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • >HTL-

     

    "Maybe unwinding the re-hypothication contracts?"

     

    Don't you really wonder how much of the world's assets are claimed as backing by at least two entities for the same asset?

     

    Talk about a real potential bubble!

     

    Maybe that's what, in part is causing the whopping gold boom this week-

     

    Windwood Trader
    26 Apr 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Its exactly why you should be taking delivery and putting it in your safe deposit box or where ever you feel its safe. NOT JPM's vault.
    26 Apr 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Good point DG
    26 Apr 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Todays trivia question. What is castoreum that is often listed in your vanilla flavored foods as a natural flavoring.

     

    http://bit.ly/11I8497

     

    http://bit.ly/181Bin0
    26 Apr 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • That's it! I'm going back to chocolate! LOL
    26 Apr 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • MLP Leveling Legislation mentions MTs, could be a benefit to ease (CPST) increased penetration in nascent markets.

     

    Reintroduction of Master Limited Partnerships Parity Act on April 24, 2013

     

    http://bit.ly/15MuZEt

     

    Thanks to Keesindy at InvestorVillage for the post.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Apr 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Here is an article with Catherine Austin Fitts talking about another smack down in gold prices.

     

    http://bit.ly/Y9STaz
    26 Apr 2013, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • An article at ZH on gold at JPM. I learned something about the GLD ETF from this and posted that part below.

     

    http://bit.ly/12NzefY

     

    One more very, very important thing.
    Anybody who says there’s been gold selling in the GLD is a freaking moron (Bob Pistrami, I’m looking in your direction). The GLD works much like a coat check. Unless you think checking your coat constitutes a real transaction of some kind you shouldn’t think of changes in the GLD’s gold holdings as sales. They’re not. When you check your gold into the GLD you get shares (like a claim check). Where it gets wierd is you can sell these claim checks to nimrods who seem to think they’ve bought your coat, but aren’t actually allowed to wear it.

     

    What nobody seems to appreciate is that every share of GLD is allowed to be sold TWICE (long and short, and it’s really important to understand that). If you’re foolish enough to doubt me (and foolish enough to short gold), go short GLD shares and see if anyone knocks on your door demanding gold. Saying the GLD is 100% backed by gold is a bold face lie because they’re can be twice as many shares in play as gold backing them, which means GLD shares may be only 50% backed by gold before any rules are broken.
    26 Apr 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • How is that different than shorting a stock? One has to borrow shares to open a short position.
    26 Apr 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • I don't know. I do not play in this park. I just assumed the author getting posted on ZH knew what he was talking about. Maybe the count twice means you borrowed (bought) long and sold short at the same time. 100 shares bought and 100 shares sold.? So you sold the 100 shares short for the same 100 shares of gold your still holding long. You have now 200 shares with an "ownership" on those 100 shares worth of gold. Someone bought those shorted shares and expects to be able to sell your gold that your holding long.

     

    If anyone knows I am just talking out of my @$$ please speak up. I just dont know.
    26 Apr 2013, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • That article appears inaccurate, imo. The premise that nobody is going to knock on your door to demand gold and therefore somehow proves his thesis is ridiculous. The prospectus clearly states the shares are not redeemable for bullion. I don't see how shorting this etf is different than shorting any other etf or stock. I don't see why this is a particularly good strategy, either, since one shorts from a margin account and incurs interest charges. It's less complicated and less expensive to sell a call or buy a put.
    27 Apr 2013, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • Agree on the less complicated. I guess there are two folks having some form of ownership on every long/short transaction. I think he just wanted to say that holding the physical has only one person with a claim and the ETF can have two. The idea of using calls or puts being cheaper and less complicated, i whole heartedly agree with you.

     

    I thought that those with LARGE investments in that etf could cash out for bullion. There are two classes of investors in that eft if that is true. The rich first class and the poor third class. I have never been a proponent of that etf. I want to be the only person with a call, put, rehypothication etc...on my metal, I want it in my safety deposit box.
    27 Apr 2013, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • Whether there are two legitimate ownership claims or not, the counterparty risk remains, unless you have the metal in yer shwetty lil' fist.
    27 Apr 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • The prospectus states it is not redeemable for bullion, but the truth is we have no idea how they sell gold out of that ETF!
    27 Apr 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • When I ran a pension plan portfolio I was able to get significant return through a securities lending program. I actually worked through the custodian bank, so that the bank was contractually on the hook to me, the pension fund. The custodian got a set fee/percentage out of the deal for the risk and for the administration- I got the rest. Around a 33% ~ 67% arrangement typically.

     

    The way I did it didn't produce as much income as dealing directly with a client but let me sleep better.The bank then lent out the securities to the organizations that benefited for the usually overnight lending.

     

    There were defaults in the past and some lenders got clobbered- Practice has been much changed since.

     

    I suppose what I did was akin to the letting other entities use your gold for collateral purposes but doesn't ring to be the same kind of arrangement.

     

    Comments welcome-

     

    Windwood Trader
    27 Apr 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Copper colander glowing red hot, tin foil pealing from the windows, black helos above and a gale force head wind blowing and filled with dangerous debris. Hang on for dear life and tighten down the chin strap.

     

    Conspiracy theorists of the world, believers in the hidden hands of the Rothschilds and the Masons and the Illuminati, we skeptics owe you an apology.

     

    http://bit.ly/14qTZBh
    27 Apr 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • "We are all muppets now."

     

    -Milton "Kermit" Friedman
    27 Apr 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • For those who follow the maryjane story and the business-izing and progress "thereof":
    http://bit.ly/186yGBv
    27 Apr 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Let's see.... $25 per day for dronabinol, and $20 for 2 joints per day for weed- 30, 1 gram joints per a $300 street value ounce in New Jersey.

     

    Wonder where the profit margin is greater?
    This may be a good investment!

     

    WT
    27 Apr 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • ""Smoked cannabis works faster, but oral THC works longer. For the management of chronic pain and other symptoms, the duration of action is often more important than the rapidity of onset. It is more convenient, and often more desirable, to administer a medication two or three times daily rather [than] every two or three hours," said Reisfield, who was not involved in the research."

     

    "The study was published April 22 in the journal Neuropsychopharmacology."

     

    The difference between brownies and joints has been known since ancient times, but "medical science" now makes it official.
    27 Apr 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • >SMaturin-

     

    Means the AMA and the druggies now get a piece of the grass deal-
    What a great country!

     

    WT
    27 Apr 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • One works longer one works faster. My question is: Which is more fun?

     

    I know having the insurance pay for it and saving hundreds of dollars would make the fun decision for me right there.
    28 Apr 2013, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • Hearsay: If any of you own Merk, suggest for you to pay attention to the next two EOM trading sessions. Scuttlebutt from someone high up who I shared beers with tonight stated that there's going to be significant layoffs, and even worse that there's issues with contractors...some 5000 contractors who do research work for Merk.

     

    Further, there's union issues.

     

    Could be a buying opportunity, if the stock tanks. Or, a chance to short.

     

    Again...all hearsay.
    28 Apr 2013, 01:07 AM Reply Like
  • Re: $MRK 5/1/2013

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Earnings miss plus guidance down. Stock down 3% at 14:00 EST

     

    I owe you a beer for my shorts.

     

    Windwood Trader
    1 May 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • >Maya:

     

    Re: $MRK

     

    Good info- Thanks-

     

    Check out the following articles as to semi-corroboration of your discussion.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Windwood Trader
    28 Apr 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • WT: Thanks!
    28 Apr 2013, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • More about the pending Brown-Vitter legislation and how it "may" affect TBTF banks like Wells Fargo:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    28 Apr 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Maya-

     

    Thanks-

     

    I like the following rather subtle comment in the article-

     

    "Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf admitted that the environment was not ideal for earnings growth"

     

    Hmm..........

     

    Windwood Trader
    29 Apr 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Here is a website, I got in trouble at a long time ago over gun control, long story, but they offer a lot of good info from the 10K's I believe. Lots of neat insights.

     

    http://www.footnoted.com
    29 Apr 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Had a bit of rum tonight, maybe a lot. I needed to share some feelings. Sorry if your offended. My Irish blood just will not let some things go. Sadly its the life I live so I share it sometimes as most of the Renegades are all to familiar. Usually after a night of hard drinking. Some things you simply can not drink away....no matter how much you drink. Say a prayer for our soldiers. Pray we are not sending them to Syria. I am so frustrated by our being the worlds 911.

     

    Sorry all but we must never forget. Freedom is not free. (drunk and sobbing) It sucks. My human side coming out. No copper colander tonight. Not a humorous night.

     

    http://bit.ly/ZO4o7n
    30 Apr 2013, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • Strength for what's coming DG...It's gonna be an all hands event.
    30 Apr 2013, 12:55 AM Reply Like
  • Thank-you. Your so right. All hands on deck. No shirking duty when it comes. It will be time to man up.
    30 Apr 2013, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • D.G.: Your concerns should be the concerns of all Americans. The fact that it is not is concerning and disgusting, because of how we get to such a state. I'll stop there.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Apr 2013, 06:35 AM Reply Like
  • Both parties in congress say to the administration that we should be involved. I suggest we send over the members of congress that want us to be involved to be the involvees, not our troops.

     

    Windwood Trader
    30 Apr 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • That would change things.
    30 Apr 2013, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • I hate ending the night on a sad note. For the youngsters here is something new for you. Quality music. No insult intended. Just an introduction. Look at the members in this group. Quality every last bit.

     

    http://bit.ly/ZhQtBL

     

    Just in case no one want to look them up I will make it easy for you.

     

    http://bit.ly/15W8zAQ
    30 Apr 2013, 01:34 AM Reply Like
  • Maybe two cuts. The rum is in charge. Not my fault!!

     

    http://bit.ly/YiyCQ7
    30 Apr 2013, 02:12 AM Reply Like
  • Damn rum, No one is a better artist. Good night. (Head tucked and shamefully heading for my pillow)

     

    http://bit.ly/12fwRip
    30 Apr 2013, 02:24 AM Reply Like