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Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

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  • QuickChat
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Final comment from the last Quick Chat by HTL:

     

    Anybody been in a similar situation? The title was Axion, but it's not *our* axion.

     

    youtube.com/watch?...

     

    HardToLove
    19 May 2011, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    finance.yahoo.com/news...=

     

    The Greek unions are figuring things out...

     

    Soon it will be socialist on socialist, mud rasslin' at its finest.

     

    Will Greece explode once they go over 18% (who knows what the real number is, this is probably as fake as our own BLS number) unemployment? 20%? 25%?

     

    We should be paying close attention to this angle. And note the location for the big union summit conference... Battle lines are being drawn.
    19 May 2011, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Hard: Great finds in the last thread about Axion!

     

    Thanks!

     

    ####

     

    Didn't do a whole lot today. Added a little more BQI and SGMO.
    19 May 2011, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    New CALVF/CAL.TO presentation:
    www.caledoniamining.co...

     

    Feeling like a pumper on this one cause I keep coughing into the wind about it. But I do believe in it and keep blowing quality dry powder on it. Sigh...
    19 May 2011, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    (CSPT): ... maybe. It's not really CPST's strength ATM, but one never knows.

     

    "U.S. Department of Energy Announces Expanded Partnership with Industry to Advance Next-Generation Automotive Technologies".

     

    CPST could benefit through the efforts of such a Wrightspeed, US 1, etc.

     

    But ISTM there is risk of biased outcomes since a lot of the partnership is composed of "traditional" users and manufacturers of IC engines. Bias could also swing the other way, courtesy of "pure" EV evangellists.

     

    Thanks and a Tip of the Tam' to Captainondeck at Investorvillage for the link.

     

    apps1.eere.energy.gov/...

     

    HardToLove
    19 May 2011, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    online.wsj.com/article...

     

    Meredith Whitney talking about another thing that happens next month (other than QE2 ending), ie, state government financial years and balanced budget requirements come due.

     

    Haircuts all around, according to the smart lady, and I think she's right. More layoffs, renegotiated contracts with unions, higher taxes, more fees, fewer services, and oh yes, municipal bondholders who just might be looking at their low risk investments as somewhat riskier than they thought.

     

    Should be a very HOT summer this year.
    19 May 2011, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    So great that Meredith W. reads this format! We've been talking about the July 1 potential state by state budget massacre that's going to happen for at least two months. I believe I read somewhere that 31 states are facing very serious financial problems. It's also not just states, but cities, counties and municipalities, too.

     

    I haven't heard for some time about the potential of Harrisburg, PA going bankrupt, but I'm thinking we'll hear more from many cities beginning next month.

     

    I fully expect unemployment to be back on the rise during the third quarter.

     

    Another BIG reason why the potential correction is not just all about the ending of QEII.

     

    Hat tip to my Wells broker for being the first I know of to mention this subject of looming state budget crises.
    19 May 2011, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    "Hat tip to my Wells broker for being the first I know of to mention this subject of looming state budget crises."

     

    This has been reported in articles on SA as well as Fox Business for quite some time now just to give you a heads up.

     

    ACE
    21 May 2011, 01:44 AM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    The Amazing Race exercise has proven to be very insightful already after just three weeks. It gives a nice perspective on choices and really exposes some duds. Of my ten picks I am basically dead even with nine butthe real dud of my group TLON is solely responsible for me being about $3500 in the red. Thank goodness I didn't invest in this one for real. What a dog, but then again perhaps one can look at this stock now that it has had a 33% nose-dive. Perhaps its a buy soon? Anyone been watching this dud? Does it have any potential or is it one for the garbage can?

     

    Also what are the latest thoughts on that non-mover AXPW? Basically, in one year, when all is said and done its done nothing. Is this one people in here like for its long-term potential or is it just wishful hopes in a company that is more than likely to do nothing beyond a buck per share?
    19 May 2011, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Never to old to learn, I suspect this will be informative and entertaining.

     

    I plan to tune in.

     

    www.bnn.ca/Schedule.aspx

     

    12:50 pm ET Cole Stevens 14-year-year old Grade 9 Student, Markham, Ont. Headline

     

    What can seasoned investors learn from a 14-year-old kid? Lots, apparently, given how Grade 9 Markham, ON student Cole Stevens has managed to increase a $500,000 "virtual" portfolio by 40 percent in a matter of a couple of months. BNN speaks with Cole and his father John Stevens.

     

    HardToLove
    20 May 2011, 07:27 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Here's a link to a good article about agriculture, water and lumber stocks for diversification:
    stocks.investopedia.co...
    20 May 2011, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    (XIDE): Appointed approved supplier to Federated Auto parts - DJ Newswire. I'll post a link as soon as it hits another wire.

     

    Good timing too - should be bouncing off support of sideways trading channel.

     

    globenewswire.com/news...

     

    "This designation allows Exide to supply batteries and battery-related services to the membership of Federated Auto Parts, which includes 155 distribution centers and more than 4,000 auto parts stores across North America".

     

    HardToLove
    20 May 2011, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Bought (DRR) Double short EURO relative to the dollar this morning.
    20 May 2011, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Has anyone heard from Guns?
    20 May 2011, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Not recently. Probably doing GOOOH work? Or phys therapy for his shoulder. He mentioned the pain killers were rough - lots of sleeping?

     

    HardToLove
    20 May 2011, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    IAALF up over 26% on my Schwab screen!!!

     

    Yeeeeehaw!

     

    Pass the beeryllium!
    20 May 2011, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • ScroogeMcduck
    , contributor
    Comments (511) | Send Message
     
    ARR has a nice monthly dividend for those of you who think we might trade sideways for a while.
    20 May 2011, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Long ARR, RSO, PSEC, FSC, NLY, EEP and AGNC.
    20 May 2011, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    lynas HAS me scratching my head. Any thouughts why it seems stagnant??

     

    ACE
    20 May 2011, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    It's fear about what that independent review is going to say about the LAMP facility in Malaysia…. Its getting discussed quite a bit over in Trips REE news concentrator. I am happy if it mostly holds it value until that report comes out.
    20 May 2011, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    ACE: How can you possibly say stagnant? Are you kidding me? Open up an one year chart. You'll see that Lynas is up more than 600% since last July! Up about 33% since March 15th.

     

    You are hard to please. Weeds don't grow that fast.
    20 May 2011, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    MAYA

     

    It is a 2 buck stock and all here were saying Molycorp was overvalued at $70.00 . Seems to me that we have a large difference between the two companies. I have a lot to learn but my weeds DO grow that fast !!!

     

    I guess you can only value a stock by a chart, and i do not mean this jokingly. But silver is way above charts of a few of you. Quite frankly from what i read these charts are only good AFTER the price is in, not BEFORE it is in...

     

    You guys are way better than me but are you telling me LYNAS should be at 2 bucks AND Molycorp at 50 bucks?? Is that what the charts seriously tell you??

     

    I read article after article on SA and as soon as someone places a chart up all hell breaks loose. Everyone is arguing their points as who missed what on the chart, band, tea cups, coffee cups, etc. I hate to go back to horse racing. But Maya , you have been to the track and you know EVERYONE is yelling why they like a certain horse.

     

    ALL YOU HEAR IT'S RIGHT IN THE PROGRAM, CAN'T YOU SEE IT !!!

     

    I have come to the conclusion that once you maybe master chart reading you have a clear head start over everyone else. I am coming from the anglr that LYNAS is an active company, Molycorp is losing money, and i haven't heard a good reason why one is at 2 bucks while the other is over 50 bucks.

     

    Maybe when it was a penny stock until now it has jumped up tremendously, that might be true, but i am looking to buy companies that aren't always gambling companies where you need to buy thousannds of shares. I dunno maybe people ( as DM told me ) are making a hundred bucks on a transaction and make it sound like they hit lotto.

     

    Now if that is what i should be after then i will rearrange my thinking. Nothing wrong with making $100 bucks. Maybe that is why i still scratch my head all the time, or is it the bugs??? I dunno

     

    ACE
    21 May 2011, 01:16 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    "You guys are way better than me but are you telling me LYNAS should be at 2 bucks AND Molycorp at 50 bucks?? Is that what the charts seriously tell you??"

     

    "I am coming from the angle that LYNAS is an active company, Molycorp is losing money, and i haven't heard a good reason why one is at 2 bucks while the other is over 50 bucks."

     

    ####

     

    Has nothing to do with charts, or charting. Potentially, here's your answer. Molycorp's market cap is at $4.98 billion. Lynas' is $4.11 billion. Number of outstanding shares times current price of both of these companies make them right now darn close in valuation. So if Lynas had a $5.00 share price right now, Lynas would be the stock grossly overvalued.

     

    Hope this helps, because a while back, I asked the same question to myself, and then went through the above exercise, which answered the same question for me. I would not, and do not expect Lynas to be a quick double for the current $2.4x.

     

    You are quite right, I have a loooong way to go before I understand even 20% of all the intricacies of charting, including the learning of how to interpret the vast array of indicators. I also do sometimes question how some of these SA pundits place support and resistance levels where they do.

     

    But right here on SA is as good a place as any I've found to gain insights from others, and then debate, much like Hard and I do from time to time with Axion. I very much enjoy those discussions, especially because they are kept civil, unlike the nutzoids over in Yahoo Chat.

     

    I think it's safe to say that through discussion both Hard and I each have learn from the other. I likely more from Hard, than he from me.
    21 May 2011, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    MAYA

     

    Appreciate your keeping it civil and please don't misunderstand me, it is ME who is lost as far as charting goes. My concern was do you guys consider grabbing profit of lets say $500 bcks a good, avg, or bad day??

     

    I also WISH everyone whom i apologozed to accept it and move on so that i can start accumulating points again..Not begging but the day of 5 to 7 points seem over and i always give all you guys the thumbs up !!!

     

    But if not it really isn't a biggie i was just an a hole at one point and i really do want to learn. EXAMPLE. I could use a few extra grand and was considering selling the 1k shares i have of LYNAS. good or bad move and reason why,

     

    Thanks

     

    Thanks for trying to clarify this for an idiot who has no clue..

     

    ACE
    21 May 2011, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    "I likely more from Hard, than he from me".

     

    In my dreams! Since I pick up on most techinal types of things quickly, it may appear that I don't learn much from you. But I can say that there's a lot I've gotten from you and others that may or may not be in the technical area. And many of those non-technical items are *way* more valuable over the long haul.

     

    I've got so far to go yet, I can't believe I've actually undertaken the journey at my age.

     

    A good example, on the technical side only, is the Elliott Wave stuff.

     

    I thought I was doing fairly well until I hit the variations on reactive (i.e. corrective) waves and the literature started introducing all the exceptions ... er, "variations".

     

    What a mess of "exceptions to the rule". I've seen fantastic bowls of spaghetti and sauce that have better consistency of organization than the jumble of exceptions EW has!

     

    It's as if when they began to find all the behaviors that didn't match the theoretical model they just started adding variations that fit the cases they found. I suspect they're not done with that process yet.

     

    I suspect they are pursuing a trading version of "The Grand Unified Theory of Everything".

     

    If Albert and subsequent efforts by others couldn't get it all right yet ...

     

    Anyway, time often helps absorption of new concepts, so I'm backing off a bit and studying and re-reading a small slice at a time as I hit the rougher spots.

     

    It doesn't help that when I try to apply it to stocks I'm watching, Often I can't get a match, even to the exceptions. Where we should have, e.g. a 3-3-3-5 or some such, I might see a 2-3-1-4-1 or some other oddity.

     

    <*sigh*>

     

    Anyway, the trek continues.

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2011, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): price is trying hard to complete an inverse head and shoulders.

     

    The completion of the pattern would be closing above $0.87. TA indicators seem to support a rise in price starting and there's a excellent chance this price will be seen. A close above it will confirm. I would think only a few days would be needed to get there *if* the earlier bullish action today so far holds.

     

    My guess is the savvy investors that chose not to enter before the quarterly report waited a few days after that to let any feverish rush into the stock that might occur subside.

     

    Completion of the pattern, by closing above the target price, is a very bullish indicator.

     

    Bulkowski says they are "... reliable chart patterns that sport a low failure rate and good average rise. Performance improves if the pattern appears within a third of the yearly high as opposed to near the yearly low".

     

    That would be ~$0.85. So if the pattern completes, good returns can be expected even if one is just trading it.

     

    Using Bulkowski's calculations, the target price would be $0.97.

     

    There are a couple of items to the pattern that suggest performance may not be as strong. But these may be overridden by the breakout being within 1/3rd of the yearly high.

     

    Caveat: price weakened in this last hour and we may have a "doji" (open & close the same price with a shadow and tail) at the end of the day, indicating indecision in the direction coming direction. If we can't keep the move up intact, the right shoulder will get too wide and we lose the H & S pattern.

     

    HardToLove
    20 May 2011, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    AXPW is trying hard to do absolutely nothing. The price of that stock has basically hovered around $.80 for a year... a dip here and a rise there but always seems to go back to $.80. If you invested in that stock a year ago, your money has done zero, zippo, nothing. What does anyone see in this company? I have yet to read anything that indicates it is a winner in waiting.
    20 May 2011, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    4Real: Everything's already been said! Go read John Petersen's columns. Go back and read these Quick Chats. Go study how Axion has an amazing little electrode that makes their 30% lighter lead acid battery 10 times more efficient than regular lead acid batteries.

     

    Some stocks take patience.
    20 May 2011, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Hard: I'm not sure how accurate any TA is with Axion right now, here in the short term, as in during the last month. What I do see is that "possibly" the fifth wave down has been completed. Check out how the Bollinger bands tightened severely today, all because of the relatively sideways tracking since April 26.

     

    A head and shoulders formation is not occurring, because the left was around 60 cents, and the right is centering on 80 cents. What might be occurring, hypothetically, hopefully, is that the correction from March 28 is just the contraction off a first wave up, long term speaking of course.

     

    I'm not seeing a reverse head and shoulders pattern.

     

    If we see another week or so of "squeezing" Bollinger bands, we should then be in for a leg up in the coming weeks.

     

    Alas, if the markets tank all bets are off. However, as I previously wrote, Axion seems to be somewhat impervious to the pitch and swales of the general marketplace.

     

    Rough stock to hold on to, but I intend to at least until the coming DOE announcement. Doubt I'll take profits even then, or, if the stock doesn't rise a lot, cut current losses.
    20 May 2011, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    "A head and shoulders formation is not occurring, because the left was around 60 cents, and the right is centering on 80 cents. What might be occurring, hypothetically, hopefully, is that the correction from March 28 is just the contraction off a first wave up, long term speaking of course.

     

    I'm not seeing a reverse head and shoulders pattern".

     

    Different time frames again?

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    HardToLove
    20 May 2011, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    ========================
    Hard: I'm not sure how accurate any TA is with Axion right now, here in the short term, as in during the last month.
    ========================

     

    I would agree.

     

    I'm *postulating* that now that the SEC filings, PR and CC have been completed and folks have clarity about tripling revenues, Norfolk Southern, a P.O. cut worth >=$3.5M and <=$8.5M, Power Cube status, a likely(?) DOE grant with AXPW as prime contractor with a university, auto mfg and nat'l lab as sub-contractors (John points out that a major auto mfg. has *never* before acted as sub on a deal like this with a small player as prime), ... that folks are *starting* to come back to the stock.

     

    Oh! let's not forget the relationship with BMW in testing their battery technology.

     

    That folks may be coming back seems to be supported by the volume *beginning* to pick up the last two days. I didn't include that on the snapshot in the insta, but you can see it on normal charts. The last two days both more than triple Wed. volume and better than the average of the 4 days prior to that.

     

    Of course, smart ones won't pile in until/unless they fear price might run away from them. So they're still trying to bottom fish. That will keep volume increasing only slowly at first and trending predominately to normal behavior.

     

    ========================
    What I do see is that "possibly" the fifth wave down has been completed. Check out how the Bollinger bands tightened severely today, all because of the relatively sideways tracking since April 26.
    ========================

     

    Bollingers have tightened, but not yet severely on *my* charts. With *my* settings, they are $0,.8066/$0.7674, still a reasonably large spread, ~1.5 to ~2 times recent daily price range.

     

    In point of fact, they are wider now than 5/13 & 5/16. AFAIK, our settings are different, but I never got your settings so I can't be sure.

     

    ========================
    If we see another week or so of "squeezing" Bollinger bands, we should then be in for a leg up in the coming weeks.
    ========================

     

    I believe you are assigning attributes to the Bollingers it does not possess. When they do converge, it is a strong indicator that a change in trend is *likely*. But when they are spread it does *not* mean no change is likely. Remember that as a measure of standard deviations that respond to price action, they only indicate volatility. When you are having big swings the Bollingers will diverge, generally, and are *not* indicating a ... "build up of pressure" like they are when they are tightly converging. But the very volatility that the Bollingers are measuring can lead to sudden changes in the trend. And if you have a steady trend you'll notice that the Bollingers do not tend to diverge significantly, but rather track rather steadily with the trend.

     

    So, lack of convergence does not indicate a lack of movement or no change in trend. It just indicates there is no consolidation going on which normally can lead to a change in direction or continuation of a trend, etc.

     

    The very nature of a H & S, inverted or not, would *preclude* the ultimate convergence of the Bollinger bands and yet the H & S is known to result in substantial moves in the indicated direction a large percentage of the times the pattern is seen.

     

    ========================
    Alas, if the markets tank all bets are off. However, as I previously wrote, Axion seems to be somewhat impervious to the pitch and swales of the general marketplace.

     

    Rough stock to hold on to, but I intend to at least until the coming DOE announcement. Doubt I'll take profits even then, or, if the stock doesn't rise a lot, cut current losses.
    ========================

     

    I'm holding mine right now, took profits on my wife's, as I posted before.

     

    Switching subjects, did you see the PR on (XIDE) I posted earlier? One of John's picks. I got a small starter position for my wife's account today 3 minutes after the PR was released.

     

    That'll get it on the radar and we'll see what 6/2 report and CC brings. I can say that the Federated deal should substantially increase revenues over the next year or two if the economy doesn't totally tank again.

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2011, 12:15 AM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    Believe me Maya, I'm watching the stock closely and hoping that all the promise you see for the future materializes because I will be in too. I just don't think its happening anytime soon so my money is elsewhere for the moment. I think money sitting in AXPW for the past year could have been better invested elsewhere and probably for another year to come. At any rate i wish you good luck with that one. My comments were not meant to rile you up, just trying to see what the optimism surrounding that stock is about. I'll build up my funds elsewhere for a while and that way will have more to spend on AXPW if and when it makes a move.
    21 May 2011, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Can't agree more. Axion may be stagnant for a year or more. I went through exactly the same choice with Novavax. I sold off a lot (for me). Because I don't think Novavax is going to move much, or better yet, be bought out until they receive the second traunch of funds from BARDA. Wouldn't make sense for any big pharma to acquire before those millions are in Novavax's coffers.

     

    Likely, I will be moving some funds back into Novavax near summer's end, when both the flu season approaches, and that second burst of government millions will make them a much more attractive takeover.

     

    But I didn't reinvest this raised cash. Keeping the powder dry, for now. It's going to be quite hard to make any postitive traction in the coming months, if we do see a 15 to 20% broad market selloff.

     

    On the other hand, Axion should be receiving a news of a smallish grant from the DOE before July 1, likely received by Sept. 1. It's not the size of the grant that I care about, it's the news event that a small microcap battery outfit is garnering attention from not only BMW, but also Detroit. That's potentially a tradeable event.

     

    Axion has a very good chance, in my opinion, to vault 100s of percent within the next couple of years.

     

    If Axion's story pans out, then it will be a significant windfall for me. Not life changing, but definitely enhancing. If I can manage to hang on to the shares I already own.

     

    Hardest part for me to figure, is to sell after this coming DOE annoucement and then wait until Axion "possibly" has a secondary come first quarter 2012, and then buy back in, or hang on blindly to Axion's very compelling story.

     

    The good thing is I don't have to make this decision yet for weeks!

     

    Hoping this helps you better understand at least this one investor's approach, and coming choices to make regarding Axion.
    21 May 2011, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Yeah. We do that, don't we? :-)
    21 May 2011, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    Please don't take this personally, maybe it is my age, but i feel you are speaking a different language with all your charting lingo. How did you learn all of it. Is there a book you would suggest?? I feel lost..

     

    Thanks
    ace
    21 May 2011, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Yes I did see that about Exide. Great news! I already have a decent-sized share allocation, started at $3.94 per. Even (mistakenly) added some a while back in the high $10s. Meant for a long term hold. I'm looking maybe to add a little more if the correction occurs. Haven't done any Exide charting for some time.

     

    Certainly am getting whacked in Moon's contest with Exide as my choice! But this is another one of those stocks that seemingly always bounces back, like ATPG does.

     

    About the Bollinger bands. I agree that nothing they "say" is invincible evidence of a trend one way or the other. The QuoteMedia service I use did indeed show a rapid convergence occuring Thursday, and yesterday. I would expect, merely positing a best guess, that the upper and lower bands will continue to tighten, and we go sideways for a while, until the next news cycle.

     

    Think we've talked about how Axion's volume dipped significantly during the past couple of weeks. I remember the same occured with Great Western, and just did with TAMO before taking off. And, grrr...it looks like the same is occuring with KNDI.

     

    Will we see the same occur with Axion? I hope so!

     

    User and I were PMing about the same "what ifs" regarding Axion. Please see the above comment I wrote to 4Real about the trading idea versus holding.

     

    Thanks, as always, for sharing your time!
    21 May 2011, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    I don't take much personally, so no worries.

     

    I'll PM you with a place I started and some thoughts.

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2011, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    ====================
    About the Bollinger bands. I agree that nothing they "say" is invincible evidence of a trend one way or the other. The QuoteMedia service I use did indeed show a rapid convergence occuring Thursday, and yesterday. I would expect, merely positing a best guess, that the upper and lower bands will continue to tighten, and we go sideways for a while, until the next news cycle.
    ====================

     

    This comment I'll make here came to me *after* all the other stuff below.

     

    The reason it showed the rapid convergence is because the last of the data set of 3/24 through 4/21, which had been keeping the upper Bollinger excessively elevated (IMHO), finally moved out of range, based on what I ascertained below.

     

    We were 6 or 7 days into the start of the long down-trend before that upper Bollinger began to respond to the change in trend.

     

    Remember when it was just off the peak around 3/28 and I said I thought it would come back into that range I was tracking (>$1 somewhere) but I couldn't say why? Maybe it was because of the way my Bollinger bands were behaving although I couldn't recognize it at the time.

     

    But it did come back in range and I was able to exit with a profit at that time. $1.11 IIRC?

     

    Maybe you want to try some shorter periods on the Bollingers from the service you use for your short-term trades vs. longer (default 20?) for your longer-term investments or trades? *But* if these settings have been serving you well, it may be better not to "fix what ain't broken".

     

    Good timing, "Nights in White Satin" is just finishing up.

     

    Following is "all the other stuff below".

     

    On *my* charts, we did have a convergence begin Wed. 5/11 and it accelerated that Thu. and Fri. But it flattened Mon, 5/16 and then diverged a bit and then trended *slightly* towards convergence again. But it didn't progress much towards tightening for the rest of this week - stayed essentially steady.

     

    If the action Fri. with the price move up is supported by similar action on Mon., we could see it start to diverge again or maintain the spread but trend up on both the upper and lower band values.

     

    But I can see where the difference might come in - those settings I asked you about a month or two back. I'm using the default settings on the Power ETrade platform, 2 & 5 (funny, on the web site they use the same ones stockcharts.com uses and in the same order - Power ETrade Pro must have defaults for more active traders). I hopped over to

     

    stockcharts.com

     

    and pulled up AXPW and added Bollingers. Guess what? Their settings are default 20,2 (order reversed from the Power ETrade Pro order) and they look exactly as you describe. I changed them to 5,2 and then the Bollingers look exactly as on the Power Etrade Pro default setup.

     

    Wonder of wonders!

     

    So, the Q becomes are mine appropriate for my shorter time-frames and your's appropriate for your time-frames or are both of us hosed because neither of the settings are "correct" for our time-frames? Maybe one or both of us should have 10, 2 or similar?

     

    LoL! I have no answer to that. All my other chart settings are experimental and so *if* my Bollinger settings are inappropriate for my activities, I can't really tell without setting the others back to default and then experimenting with the Bollinger settings alone.

     

    <*sigh*>

     

    And the other question is, of course, what are the settings of the service you use? If they have proven consistently useful and accurate for what you do, we must conclude they are correct for your style.

     

    They might also be correct for me, but I've not had the opportunity yet to test that. I wonder if your service uses the same settings that Stockchart uses. The results I saw suggest that is so because the Bollingers looked exactly as you described.

     

    Looking at the different results from the 20 vs. 5 period settings, I note the following.

     

    The turn from the run up peak on 3/29 at $1.27 to a down trend was detected much earlier and the bands tightened much more quickly with the shorter period I use, of course.

     

    For what I'm trying to do, I think I prefer that as moves to the extremes are detected much more quickly. E.g. when we started the formation of the inverse H & S, the Bollingers with the shorter period showed the extremes hit or exceed much more quickly and (possibly, depending on interpretation) correctly predicted a turn or retrace coming on 4/25 (slightly before the left shoulder bottom completed) and also indicated the subsequent likely completion of the "armpits", head and the other shoulder bottom.

     

    If you have the time and interest, go to stockcharts, add bollingers and change the period to 5 for this next paragraph and you'll see what I'm talking about next. You'll also see the *huge* difference in what they tell us at different points in the price trend since the end of March.

     

    On Thu., 5/19, the Bollinger limits (my 5 period setting) were hit and slightly exceeded on the low side and we closed right in the middle. Was this an early indication of change coming? Maybe. But the fact that close was in the middle tells another story - price tends to gravitate towards the mean and away from extremes.

     

    I can't say on one day's action what is indicated without some other indicators.

     

    Anyway, Fri, 5/20, about 75% of the intra-day range was *above* the upper Bollinger and the close, $0.80, was right at the upper Bollinger at $0.8066.

     

    You can see, with the 5 period setting, this was the fourth consecutive day of the Bollinger (my settings) being exceeded (three to the low side, the last to the upside). I believe this says bias is up because three attempts at the low side were rejected and the forth move violated the upper "limit" indicated by the Bollinger.

     

    The Bollingers using the 20 period setting completely missed these *very* short-term moves until Friday 5/20. They didn't even start to converge until about two weeks (trading days) ago and by then we had already formed the top of the head and were ready to start moving towards the right armpit.

     

    The bands with a longer period are commonly a more accurate indicator that price is likely to reverse with fewer false signals because the larger data sample included in the calculations smooths the fluctuations.

     

    OTOH, it also means the bands will *miss* more turning points after *extreme* trends because the data set is so much larger. A reversal takes longer to "be noticed" (affect the values) by the Bollingers because today's data point is a smaller percentage of the total data considered, e.g. 1/20th vs. 1/5th of the total data included.

     

    Anyway, the four days of penetration speaks to a change in the air. Remembering that I'm using experimental settings, possible change is supported by some other TA indications: DI+ (still below 30 though) crossed above DI-, stochastic crossed above it's signal, MFI rising. Others not as strong yet or still negative in trend.

     

    So it's still a bit early. Confirmation is mandatory I think.

     

    Well, I know I've overdone this as usual, but I value the interaction and if we're singing off different sheets of music it's harder to "harmonize".

     

    Wrapping up, because it was a Friday with potential turmoil in the middle east, I don't know how much weight to give the fact that we closed below the open on AXPW. But *my* Bollinger vs. pps position tells me to look for an *attempt* at continued move up Mon. with improving volume to challenge the $0.83 resistance again and see if we can penetrate and hold, since it won't be a Friday with possible turmoil over the weekend.

     

    Please forgive if I've ended up being too long-winded ... *again*. I seem to lack a critical "off" valve between the brain and my "mouth".

     

    BTW, while at stockcharts.com, take a look at KNDI with Bollingers at 20,2 and 5.2.

     

    HardToLove

     

    O.G. You can add "armpit" to the lexicon of TA that you noted carries a lot of "odd" implications. But in this case it's just male "grossness". :-))
    21 May 2011, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Don't overlook the demonstrated full discharge and recharge cycles with *no* loss of capacity and no reduction in charge acceptance rate vs. the *immediate* start of degradation of standard batteries, whether VRLA and/or AGM type.

     

    And IIRC, this was tested to 50K (or was it 5K?) cycles with BMW and they gave up trying to kill it. I *know* published is 2K cycles and that gives a projected lifetime *far* beyond standard battery life.

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2011, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    "Great minds ..."

     

    I tried to exit NVAX Wednesday, based on past behavior, with profit so that I could re-enter in one-and-a-half weeks or so at the low $2 range.

     

    I entered my sell at 07:50 in the A.M. but I was 1 penny too high. ONE FRIGGIN' PENNY!. If they'da asked I would'a given it to 'em! I didn't want to use a trailing stop because I wasn't confident which way it would go at that time of the morning.

     

    But if it behaves like last month (and others as well?) the week after options expiration I may get another chance. I'd short calls again but the premium is too low at the minimum strike I'm looking for. That option *might* come back on the table, but I'm not expecting pps to rise enough for that this coming week.

     

    I really want to get the 10%-12% range again like I did on the prior several times I did it, *without* considering my adjusted cost basis from the prior round's profits.

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2011, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Pretty sure that was 50000 cycles, Hard. Completely annihilated every other lead acid class battery. Not only a positive development on the world of stop/star autos, trucks, etc., but also an intriguing development for grid storage.
    21 May 2011, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    And battery backup systems for home computers. If you leave 'em on all the time like I do and power goes off while not there and computer doesn't shut down - full discharge and battery starts to deteriorate right away. And then you have to let current batteries charge 24 hours before relying on them again. Not suitable for today's fast-paced world.

     

    I think they would also do well for CPST-equipped buses, Class 8 trucks, ..., these often have heavy demands with stop/start driving and the batteries need to be able to tolerate deep discharge occasionally and accept rapid recharge. The batteries also provide lots of torque on take-off from stops, which requires a big amperage draw.

     

    And the weight savings in these trucks would be a *big* plus as less power is needed for both start-off and hills, etc. The regenerative braking would also be enhanced as the batteries can take a very high charge rate in a very short time - which is what braking is usually about - short times.

     

    I wonder if I should contact AXPW IR and see if they've looked into this application?

     

    They would also dow well in Wrightspeeds trucks and the car they are developing - both of which use Cappies and UQM motors. I guess I should contact their IR too.

     

    And CPST's IR and, ... and, ... LoL! :-))

     

    Seems like a "match made in heaven".

     

    Keep in mind that they stated in the CC they are also looking for apps in DG, residential applications, ... and have engaged (partnered?) with a 3rd party to help bring these applications to market.

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2011, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Ha! The default Bollinger settings QuoteMedia uses are 20,2.0. I can't change those settings. The Axion chart I used was/is a one year chart.

     

    Yes, so my bolegnaise sauce did taste different than yours! Once again, great detailed analysis! We "could" be seeing a cup and handle forming, the bowl starting April 22, 2010, completing March 29; the "potential" handle starting ~ April 26, 2011.

     

    Williams %R may be backing this notion, as Friday's close was dead even at negative 50. When the BBs got really tight back on Monday, September 20, 2010, William %R was -50. Next time they tightened really close was around Wed., Dec. 29, 2010, Williams %R was -50.

     

    Coincidence? Both times soon after the stock soon rose. I don't think Axion will be considered "breaking out" until it gets up and holds above ~ $1.15.

     

    KNDI's bands have dramatically expanded since May 2. Not sure how much time I want to invest in that stock, because everytime I invest in that stock I get creamed! The whole Asian scene right now is very suspect.
    21 May 2011, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    "Axion has a very good chance, in my opinion, to vault 100s of percent within the next couple of years."

     

    Are you saying you think Axion has a very good chance to vault 300, 400 even 500% within the next couple of years? Do you see the $.80 stock breaking through to 3 or 4 dollars. Is that where you are hoping to be in a couple of years with this one?

     

    Hey, like I said, I hope you are correct because I will be in too...not nearly as much as you are but enough that if it does go to 3 or 4 bucks I will make a tidy sum but again, I just don't think it moves much, if at all until 2012-13. IMO, It needs to have several chapters of it's story to pan out before the price starts to run. Good luck.
    21 May 2011, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    I have never met anyone that writes so much yet says so little.
    21 May 2011, 11:53 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    There's really no need for this comment thistimeitsforreal. Skip what you don't like. Read what you do like. Be responsible for yourself. Enjoy this little investment community - its the most cordial helpful smart group I've come across in 12 years - and add to it.
    22 May 2011, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Well, well, then 4Real, you're quite welcome to disregard everything I write hereforeward! Won't bother met a bit. I'm quite an accomplished ignorer myself.
    22 May 2011, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    I think you should discount this cup formation based on Bulkowski.

     

    Price trend: "Upward leading to the pattern. Price should rise by at least 30% leading to the cup."

     

    *But* that's just me placing a lot of faith in his analysis and reputation, so ...

     

    Other than that, as mentioned, I also am looking for further signs on the charts that a move is developing. Slow and steady would be just fine by me. But if it wants to sprint upward, I'll cheer it on! :-))

     

    As to (KNDI), I agree on waiting on it. Patterns and TA indicators look different but not any better than last time we touched on it. I think it's getting burned by general fear of Chinese stocks right now and maybe a negative article.

     

    I wish JP would weigh in on that issue with KNDI. I'd like to either get into it or stop following it.

     

    HardToLove
    22 May 2011, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    Maya... not sure why you replied to something I commented on regarding another member. I enjoy your insight, never said I didn't. If asking questions like why do you invest in a stock that doesn't show you a profit for a year bothers you then I apologize. I try to learn with questions. My comment above to HTL was merely an observation. As CaY'est suggests I can glance over repsonses I don't wish to read which I do every time I see a post by HTL.... problem is HTL takes up half the space within the chat threads and then we're on to another. I'd venture to say we'd be just breaking the chat #100 mark now if HTL posts were non-existent or at the very least short and efficient. I simply made the observation that he takes up a lot of space saying very little. I think it would much more efficient if he took up less space and actually said a lot, something he has failed to do in several months I've been enjoying the forum. Hey think of all the paper...errr uhmmm cyber trees we could be saving.
    23 May 2011, 12:08 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    I'm positively incredulous! HTL is an amazing charter. That you are unwilling to take in his insights demonstrates to me that you are unwilling to learn. Just give up that what he's writing is way over your head. I, too, have a hard time keeping up! But I do grind, and learn. Apparently, you're unwilling.

     

    Repeatedly, I've tried my best to give you insights as to why I'm doing what I'm doing. I do not appreciate your redundant questions, of which I've already answered, or someone else has attempted to answer, only for you to ask the same questions again, and again. The word "pleonastic" comes to mind.

     

    That you don't appreciate Hard's efforts boggles my mind. He's evolving into a freak'n charting genius. He's genuine, ernest.

     

    Exactly what have you brought to QC? Nothing but angst that I can see.

     

    Stop riding coattails and deliver something, anything. Without being deleterious.
    23 May 2011, 02:13 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    thistimeitsforreal
    I enjoy HTL's thorough discussions and find his comments as valuable and full of useful information. I enjoy his Technical Analysis information, and I love it when he argues multiple sides of an issue.

     

    I could care less about how long a persons comment is, and I find comments along those lines as offensive. If you don't want to read someone's comments, then by all means skip over them.
    23 May 2011, 02:17 AM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    I have never been one to rely on charts so I guess I don't appreciate a charter. It probably goes back to the fact that when I did include typical charts movements into my daily analysis of the stocks I was interested in they rarely told the story accurately. Take SLV for one of many examples. Charts have been useless with that one. I also find chart worshipers often making excuses for why the chart didn't work the way they should have.."well the 50 DMA chart tells us this but since that was wrong lets move over to the 100 DMA and then when that is wrong the 200...ooops that was wrong too so lets use the fibinaci code and then the devinci code and then the twenty other charts we have in the drawer." One of them has to be right.

     

    Charts are merely a tool that can assist with trends but are more often inaccurate than accurate. If they were effective tools, HTL wouldn't be in this forum ten times a day posting, he'd be on an island somewhere sipping Pina Coladas and spending all he wealth accumulated from following his own advice. I liken the use of stock market charts to weathermen using weather indicators. They are right about 33% of the time, mediocre 33% of the time and not even close 33% which ultimately brings you to correct and incorrect equally and in the end making little if no gains.

     

    incredulous? insightful? No, but if you enjoy the posts and convince yourself you are learning then great! I don't agree and I didn't realize that disagreeing with the group was such a crime. I thought I was living in the US where freedom of speech, expression and opinion is encouraged. Must have made a wrong turn somewhere using my chart, I mean my map.
    23 May 2011, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    Good advice Focal. That's exactly what I will do. Good Day!
    23 May 2011, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    MAYBE both sides should sit down and iron out you differences, I feel like a new man since the pooch won't bark at me anymore,,,,lol,,,,

     

    ACE
    23 May 2011, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    I've made my point. No more comments on HTL posts. There are several others in here I enjoy reading so I will put my comments thread to sleep now. Good Luck to all in here with their investments.
    23 May 2011, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Sold all TVCFF
    Sold all SQNM
    Sold all PNPFF
    Need powder, didn't like what they were doing, would rather reallocate.
    Most likely to return to TVCFF, but it reached down today, and I just don't like it. I'm sure it was Pinetree that snapped up the shares I dumped... oh well... can't kiss all the pretty girls...

     

    On a separate note, for those more adept at TA (which more or less means, for those who can do TA), I think (BMTI) has stabilized after some wild times and is finding positive footing.
    20 May 2011, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Ukraine continues export controls on grain... positive for ag commodity prices... negative for stability in the world...
    blogs.ft.com/beyond-br...
    20 May 2011, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Just saw a report on this on Al-Jazeera in English, but can't find a link about it on their website (maybe later today or tomorrow). Anyway, dug up an article echoing the report by googling "electric vehicles in manila" (and there are other articles like it):
    www.adb.org/Media/Arti.../

     

    The gist of the report suggested the Phillipine gov't wants to shift all city vehicles to electric... don't know if I'd give it credence... but know its a topic of interest, so passing along as I'm not sure how many others here regularly watch A-J
    20 May 2011, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    > CaY'Est

     

    It certainly sound reasonable. City vehicles would generally always be within city limits, close to charging facilities, eliminate a lot of maintenance related to filters (oil and air), oil changes and disposal of used oil, ditto for transmission oil, and other maintenance related to certain drive-train components not needed in pure EVs.

     

    Since there is no "range anxiety" issue (and they could rent or lease a few for times they might be needed, less pollution, ...)

     

    Add in that they can now buy inexpensive "right sized" vehicles from several Asian/Indian (IIRC) manufacturers, it makes a lot of sense.

     

    Of course, that doesn't mean the article is accurate, but it does support a common-sense economic reason for such action.

     

    HardToLove
    20 May 2011, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Now I'm getting p-oed at TAMO. Come back baby! I want to by more! Stop going up! Come back! Come down.

     

    My February 8 bought shares are now up 153.33%.

     

    Noticed some comments here about how no QCer has a stock that's rocketed lately.

     

    Well...here's one.
    20 May 2011, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, I'm too busy trying to make money to spend time recapping date and time stamped commentary. Anyone who wonders about such things should just start with the old QC's and concentrators, and compare the entries to results.
    20 May 2011, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    MAYA

     

    You hit the nail on the head for me....Yelling for a 35 cent stock??? I have posted where i haven't found many stocks that have taken off and if you consider a 35 cent stock worth doing all the yelling then you either invested thousands of dollars in it, and i have no idea of your budget, or are happy with a few hundred dollar return.??

     

    I wish i knew what i should be shooting for...No disrespect intended but i really don't understand what the aim is. A frequent poster told me this is gambling and should be happy with 2 winners out of ten.
    Do you feel the same way??

     

    Again, being a noobie in this business i haven't a clue what to believe...All i know is my reps at Schwab are trying to steer me clear away from these types of stocks and i only wish i knew who was right,

     

    I am honestly looking for guidence here, maybe i don't have the budget for this. I also know that most people stretch the truth when i write PM and people level with me.

     

    ACE
    21 May 2011, 02:02 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    ACE: Somewhere back I wrote that I wanted to only risk about a grand with TAMO (I think it was in Trip's REE thread, toward Chihawk, but I may be wrong). I only have $300 cost in right now. That's why I'm doing the Price is Right chant, "Come on down!"

     

    I didn't let this happen with Oil Sands Quest. And have just a little over a grand in it now. These are fun little plays that could reap decent rewards by 2016. A lot of crazy stuff could happen by then, so I'm not up to risking more on these concerns. If, by 2016, I make enough to live off of for a month or two, maybe take a trip, then I'll be quite satisfied with these two investments.
    21 May 2011, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    ok, at least i have an idea on How much to risk on these types of stocks. Basically you are tryin to hit a home run,if not a few hunded will siffice. Believe me that info helps. Appreciate you letting go of personal info to help us noobies out.

     

    Thanks
    ACE
    21 May 2011, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Ace: I can always change my mind, especially as 2016 nears. But that's a long time away. As I wrote before, a lot could happen between now and then. Let's call my oil sands picks two potential home runs...with nobody on.
    22 May 2011, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    MAYA

     

    Appreciate your answer as it puts things in perspective for me. Hey, don;t get me wrong i want to be on the winning side of every trade. I am just learning to get a feel for the "rules " of this game. Ad far as 4 REALS comment i am getting to know him from some pms and i think he meant that us noobies can;t undertand what is being written, I know i can't so i just skip over it " wishing " one day i will.

     

    You guys don't remember but i am sure when you started out and someone was talking over your head it just becomes frustrating, thats all.

     

    But TODAY you guys can't get me frustrated as i watched with great admiration my little girl " what girl isn't to their dad " graduate from SUNY NEW PALTZ !!!!

     

    Seriously try to have some patience with us, i have noticed the group is shrinking and a huge THANKS for all the info from HTL on helping me learn. If you took that much time writing it i promise i will stat studying and hope it starts to sink in!!

     

    ACE
    22 May 2011, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    MAYA

     

    two points here

     

    1) why is 2016 so important in investing

     

    2) how do i push off my kids ( my ) STUDENT LOANS when it is impossible for her to find a teaching job

     

    ACE
    22 May 2011, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    Ace.. you are pretty much on target with your analysis. You choose to explain it with a bit more TLC than I do but in the end you speak the truth. HTL posts are long-winded and say very little, even the one's I do understand. Just stating the facts. Could you imagine how beneficial his posts would be to the group if he actually offered valid information we could use to invest??? Wow, that would be great stuff!
    23 May 2011, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    4REAL

     

    To me HTL is tantamount to that Chemistry book i picked up in college and thought i mistakenly picked up the chineses version as i had no clue what i was reading. HTL. take this as a compliment as whaT you post to me is way over my head. That is why i asked for a reference for learning and you were kind enough to send me a pm.

     

    However my gut is calling for a correction so this will be plenty of time for research, Besides my physical i am sitting in cash and a position in DOG as this was an avenue i chose if indeed we do have a serious problem ahead of us...

     

    i ALWAYS THANK a person who takes the time to answer my question and both MAYA and HTL have...Just food for thought HTL. i MIGHT BE SPEAKING OUT OF PLACE but if some of your reponses CAN be brought down a little i think there are plenty of people like me who just don't get it yet..IT will help us understand some of your points better, Just a thought

     

    ACE
    23 May 2011, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Short version: I'm learning. If I think something is going to go this way or that, I think folks should be able to examine what I'm seeing/thinking so that they can decide for themselves if what I'm thinking has validity.

     

    Many folks aren't in a situation where they can sit and read, study, track, ... all day. I feel that by presenting the things I'm seeing and considering it may help them along towards the learning goals they *may* have as I was helped as I read others who were kind enough to present all the details to me. They can see the words and use resources to find out what the mean as they go along. Ditto for articles that their research my expose.

     

    I'm not a professional and don't make money so I would feel wrong to just say "upturn", "downturn", "buy/sell now", ...

     

    Last, I don't, as you know, believe I should advise *anyone*. But I do feel that the *aggregate* sharing each of us can do in *our* individual areas of expertise or knowledge or learning, will enrich all of us.

     

    It, IMO, is the *aggregate* effort of all that benefits all. No one "carries" anybody else. As time, interest, capability of each permits, each contributes.

     

    Myself included.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. Ambiguity is the enemy of effective communication. The less detail offered, the greater opportunity that ambiguity may appear.
    23 May 2011, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    Point taken and understood, thanks

     

    ACE
    23 May 2011, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • thistimeitsforreal
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    "I'm not a professional and don't make money"

     

    I can certainly see why so many would want to follow a writer that makes that quote. To each his own I guess. This is the good 'ol USA after all.
    23 May 2011, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    (5/21/2011) US-Iran Escalation: Iran Arrests 30 US Spies As It Builds Venezuelan Missile Base; America Sends A Third Aircraft Carrier To Persian Gulf From: Zero Hedge, by Tyler Durden

     

    A week ago Die Welt reported that, in what may soon be a repeat of the Cuban missile crisis, US arch-enemy Iran, following a secret agreement signed on October 19, 2010 of strategic cooperation, Venezuela has allowed Iran to commence construction of a missile base on Venezuelan soil.

     

    But most importantly is the discovery that while presumably defensive, Venezuela has told Iran, that it will be granted use of the base when completed: "According to the secret agreement between the two countries, Venezuela pledged to Iran that it will be able to strike its enemies from the joint missile base. Iran is attempting to boost its strategic threat to the U.S., similar to the Soviet strategy in Cuba during the 1960s." And while skeptics may say that the base located about 2,400 miles from DC has no chance in striking the US capitol, the reality is that the Iranian long-range ballistic missiles Shahab 5 and 6, are rumored to be a three-stage system, which has a range of anywhere between 3,000 and 10,000 miles. So with missile base supplies most likely to come by sea (Venezuela is a few hundred miles away from Cuba), is a recreation of the 1961 Cuban missile crisis the next big political diversion? tinyurl.com/3szh3uj
    21 May 2011, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Will the drama never end? There goes dollar up market down long before we thought it might?

     

    I've got a feeling there's SA countries that might not cotton to this either. If Venezuela can threaten us, they can become a threat to South and Central American nations as well.

     

    My first thought is this comes to naught. Just "saber rattling"? Rumor?

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2011, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Could be Venezuela's response to the US building (I believe) 8 military bases in Columbia, to aid in fighting drug lords. Chavez was going ballistic about this months ago. Pretty sure Chavez was in Iran, or, Iranian prez. I'vebeenanutjob was in Venezuela recently.

     

    Believe I read about these bases being built in Honduras News Weekly at least two or three months ago. And weeks ago, if that, I read about those two heads of states meeting in one or the other country. Was tempted to post that news here, but I guess I didn't think enough of this to do so.

     

    That 30 "spies" were arrested, is an arresting situation in and of itself.
    21 May 2011, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    OK, SO SHOULDN'T precious metals have a huge increase with these items happening. I am guessing Monday we are basically flat. Anyone disagree??
    22 May 2011, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Sheesh! On the day the world DIDN'T end, it seems the whole world is protesting. In Spain 10s of thousands are protesting about austerity and unemployment.

     

    Israel is being "rushed." Protesting is going on throughout the ME.

     

    Georgian opposition seeks their president's resignation. Mass protest.

     

    Chile is protesting the building of a dam.

     

    Uraguay is having a silent march of 50,000 to appeal for dictatorship-era victims.
    21 May 2011, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Maya... You forgot...

     

    A volcano has a Facebook page - www.facebook.com/Grims... - and erupted today. Fun fact on the Facebook page: you can gamble on whether your next flight will be cancelled due to volcano ash at select European establishments.

     

    Storms are forecast for areas already flooded by the Mississippi.

     

    Meanwhile, I missed this one off the radar about the venture capitalists descending on Afghanistan... I think Waylon Jennings had a song like this, "Looking for mines in all the destabilized opportune places... looking for graft in so many faces..."
    management.fortune.cnn.../
    21 May 2011, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    And the weather 'round here has been the most dismal yet lush spring I can recall. Yesterday, I saw something yellow up in the sky. It felt warm. Not really sure what it was; I'm so "cornfused" about the world not ending....

     

    And now on to the next end of the world premise, allegedly driven by the Mayan calendar, and Peter McKenna's research that twists Chinese Philosopher I-Ching's teachings to miraculously wind up predicting the world will "end" on the very same day, 12/21/12.

     

    "Calendrical drift" demostrates mathematically that both assumptions are inherently innacurate.
    22 May 2011, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Okay... new stock idea to float for QuickChat consumption/discussion...

     

    ELOY - tech company, specialization in behavior analytics (" a new service focused on analyzing and interpreting human conversations to assess and predict human behavior")... stock's been dead money for a while... but you can go to the linked page on their website here where there's the little bar chart in the upper right hand corner to see the creepy counter of "total interactions analyzed"... I guess its a buy signal when the counter starts moving faster...
    www.eloyalty.com/who/ba/

     

    Just trying to glean some on the TA from folks here. If ELOY can stay above 6, it is hitting up against the lower Bollinger band right now (did I get that right?)... though I think it could go back down easily to the upper end of the $5 range.
    22 May 2011, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    (ELOY): Being brief, it has a lot of TA indicators starting to say it wants to move up, but they are stuttering ATM.

     

    A notable is the *very* high* volume Thursday. Volume is considered an important confirmation that a move is likely for real.

     

    Although you'll not likely see Thursday's volume again, you do want to see upward progression supported by at least a steady volume and, preferably, increasing in overall trend. Otherwise, it may move up a bit and just stall, or worse turn around and go home again.

     

    Nothing is certain though.

     

    'Nother consideration: that big spike may have sucked up most of the buyers near-term. You might decide to wait 'till it closes the gap ($6.29-$6.35) and see if it continues the move up with some volume supporting it. You give up a few pennies of upside for a little less risk it will reverse right after you enter. This thought is supported by the fact that none of the indicators I watch have really made the turn up yet *except* stochastic which just crossed above signal and exited oversold.

     

    And, of course, my Bolingers are telling a slightly different story right now than the standard settings would offer. They essentially are suggesting that price is returning to the mean ATM. This must be, of course, a first step to move above it so it's not a negative indicator by itself.

     

    Keep in mind that my settings are experimental and I'm still deep in the learning process. Someone else's take might be better considered.

     

    Thanks for finding that - I've added it to my watch list.

     

    HardToLove
    22 May 2011, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Thank you HTL!

     

    Much obliged for your efforts and insights.
    23 May 2011, 01:00 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Having not heard from Guns in a while I decided to dial him up. He's doing okay, but experiencing a lot of pain in the unpredictable form of severe and enduring muscle spasms. Lots of them, and all over. His therapy is progressing, but painful. He's in enough pain that he can't even type.

     

    I told him that may be a good thing!

     

    Guns expressed well-wishes to all here and that he hopes to be back in commenting form within a week or so.

     

    He did say he dipped a toe back into silver, and spoke of a potential reverse head and shoulders forming. He raised curiosities about how "our" CME raised margins, while China's lowered them. Putting a potential stifle toward further CME increasing margins.

     

    I answered that little folks like me have been made a tad timid, especially with Soros' and Carlos Slim's first quarter moves.

     

    He sounded good, seemed in good spirits and was able to get outside for better cell reception.

     

    It was good to talk to him.
    22 May 2011, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Maya! I had about decided to e-mail him. If I had actually done it I guess I would have caused him more pain if he tried to reply.

     

    Who says procrastination is always a bad thing?

     

    I know, someone will say it later ...

     

    Anyway, good to hear he's progressing!

     

    HardToLove
    22 May 2011, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    My wife had that surgery and sounds like she handled it better than a MARINE!!!!!! LOL... Seriously hopefully the worst part is behind him. DG, once you get that round wheel to go full circle the PT becomes much more easily. You also can do push ups with your 100 oz bars as well!!!

     

    ACE
    22 May 2011, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    POOCH EST

     

    No acceptance of my apology??

     

    ACE
    22 May 2011, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Lates SGMO article on SA for those interested:
    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    However, I think some previous articles on SA were far better than this one on SGMO (including the other one written by this article's author). I have tagged this article more to watch the comments box.
    23 May 2011, 01:20 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    FPA: Eff, Pee, Hey!

     

    Just jokin' 'round with your new abbreviated handle, User!
    23 May 2011, 03:15 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Zero Hedge is excellent today. The article on silver shorting and the CFTC investigation and low inventory of silver is a must read, imo.
    www.zerohedge.com/arti...
    23 May 2011, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    OG

     

    As you know i like my silver. But am concerned that owning the physical MIGHT have it's problems in the future until this mess gets straightened out, That MAY never happen,

     

    ACE
    23 May 2011, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): Capstone Distributor BPC Engineering Orders Sixty C30s for First Phase of New Gas Pipeline in Kazakhstan

     

    "Construction of the pipeline will be implemented in two phases. The first phase will involve the construction of 1,164 km of the linear part of the pipeline from Bozoy – Shymkent and a compressor station near Bozoy and be completed during 2011 and early 2012"

     

    N.B. The second leg completion in 2014/2015 implies a second separate order for MTs for that portion. So, we should see around 45, at least, of this order quantity delivered by calendar EOY '11.

     

    globenewswire.com/news...

     

    HardToLove
    23 May 2011, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    anyone else having a problem of old comments staying as NEW COMMENTS??? Conversations that took place yesterday are still posted as NEW on my computer/

     

    ACE
    23 May 2011, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    I'm not. But keep in mind that there's some kind of tracking that is based on when you visited. I assume that must be compared to when the comment was posted to determine if you should be notified.

     

    I have identified and reported to SA there's a bug in the process in that new comment *count*, e.g. 10, shown when the flag appears seems accurate but when I visit the article/blog, maybe only 5 or 6 are flagged.

     

    I suspect that's what we (used to be) in the "biz" call a "race condition".

     

    SA said they'll give it priority, but ...

     

    Anyway, that same bug *could* cause what you see I guess. Not having the code, I'm just guessing.

     

    E-mail support@seekingalpha.com. It may give them a clue when they combine it with what I've reported. Every little clue may help them.

     

    HardToLove
    23 May 2011, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I do see it from time to time...
    23 May 2011, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Tom Au, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6879) | Send Message
     
    "New" comments mean that you haven't seen it yet. Thus, a comment 100 days old could be "new."

     

    On the other hand, if you saw it five seconds after it came out, left the page, and came back five seconds later, it would be "old."
    23 May 2011, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Your comment reminds me, I've been seeing something that may be related.

     

    If I enter a blog or article based on the comment flag - maybe it says "1 new comment" or such - quickly read, click the clipboard, that same comment and article is often still flagged as if I'd never been in the blog since the original flag.

     

    I wonder if that's not a symptom of "race condition". ISTR, although I wasn't watching for it, that if I went to another article or blog and then came back via a clipboard click again, the erroneous flag is gone.

     

    I'll have to keep my eyes open for that and see if I can spot a pattern.

     

    HardToLove
    23 May 2011, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • acehart
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    WELL what if i read it yesterday, why is it still new??? I have read it about 10 times by now
    23 May 2011, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    That's what a "bug" does - acts in way unintended. You might try logging out of SA, clearing your browser cache and logging back in. If it's related to "cached" items, that *might* get you by it.

     

    Just a shot in the dark though.

     

    Since I normally "don't do windows" Explorer I can't advise how to clear cache there, but SA support or maybe other folks here can tell you how.

     

    HardToLove
    24 May 2011, 06:33 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    I've got to admit it's a whole lot of fun to see Cappy +5.11% when the markets, and *most* of my screens are blood-red.

     

    I hope it holds up a little bit. Lots of folks that bought *much* lower might be tempted to take profits.

     

    HardToLove
    23 May 2011, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Saw this note on SGMO which seemed to precede early market hours bump, that's flagging out now from 3% gain down to 1.7%.:
    news.morningstar.com/a...
    23 May 2011, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Canadian Markets are closed today for Victoria Day...

     

    Feel really slow for just realizing that.
    23 May 2011, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (13557) | Send Message
     
    Congrats on Capstone. That's a way to have single stock strengh counter the market. As for the rest of us we must suffer another global downer thanks to a few million people supporting socialist governments again. Good grief poor Greece may have to layoff a civil servant. Mon Dieu... its the end of the world.
    23 May 2011, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Okay... since I'm talkin' to myself now (3 comments in a row)... I'm going to the movies..

     

    Some random notes... learned today that the IMF is a great resource for tracking all commodity prices:
    www.imf.org/external/n...

     

    Peru... two more weeks.... Majors miners such as Barrick, Newmont, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, and Xstrata are digging Peru, particularly the Andes... lots and lots of junior mining plays there too... including one of my favorites that's getting hammered again today, ANMCF.
    1:25 PM Two weeks before Peru's presidential election, conservative Keiko Fujimori holds a slim lead over leftist Ollanta Humala. Humala has spent the campaign trying to distance himself from his old ally Hugo Chavez. Helped by Fujimori's climb in the polls, Peruvian shares have taken back some sharp losses. EPU -14.6% YTD (that's a negative 14.6%)

     

    Have been selling stuff I don't particularly want to sell. Just combing the portfolio and deciding what I'm feeling least strongly about and selling regularly to raise cash. Have sold GELYF, BYDDY, CELTF along with some larger caps and ETFs that aren't germane. Don't like the long ETFs anywhere in a dicey market.

     

    Looking for
    - entry point on some rare earths... but that's a trouble for another board...
    - biopharma at large (should I add to SGMO is the top question of the moment... but looking for others)
    - maybe some oil... maybe Canadian oil...
    - price point to add to EEV position
    - possible add/buy of RJA or DAG (but lower than here)
    - trying to pick up more AQSFF in the low 70 cent range if I can
    - and buying more CALVF below 11 1/2 cents like someone who has lost all sense for risk aversion - I'm going to get incinerated on this one... all hinges on politics... yeesh...
    23 May 2011, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    This happens sometimes, C, particularly at moments when a lot of us are grossly oveweight cash, and making few moves.

     

    Today I added 2000 LYSDY, as planned. Otherwise, hunkered down for the duaration. Still recovering from the weekend, long hours, long days, hot weather. Takes a toll.

     

    Unfortunately I still see a number of steps coming from the commodity exchanges/death eaters, with the one I have been expecting, position limits, featured in the link provided earlier by OG:

     

    www.zerohedge.com/arti...

     

    So I am still just watching the pm sector, other than buying physical as items we use in our business hit attractive prices.

     

    I'm holding my GELYF, its a long term play, and CPST too, plus a list of high yielders and some REEs, some pennies in my sock drawer...

     

    WOW, IAALF was up another 26% today, its close to a 4 bagger for me now, odd to see on a day like today...

     

    I expected Lynas to drop today, regardless of the macro market situation, as the news from the tiny Malay protest held Friday made the rounds, amplified in the retelling. Chihawk and I have been championing this play over in the REE Concentrator, with the idea that it will represent a buying opp. prior to the IAEA review, which will repesent a chance for a strong pop in the stock.
    23 May 2011, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Thanks TB.

     

    Just trying to pull things back and scamper in a slightly different direction briefly... but doing so with all the grace of a dog in socks running on wood floors.

     

    Was too impatient with CADX - in and out far too quick - recently because of my excessive scampering... its moving nicely now. Happens sometimes... so trying to pull in the reins again... and head into the things mentioned some more for the summertime before my wife and I hit travel time in June 7th

     

    I'll be drinking some IBC tonight in your honor. Nice one on the IAALF!
    23 May 2011, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    C: You are quite the busy man today. Thanks for all your contributions! I wanted to add some (SGMO), too. But I think it will fall back, after the recent news blip fades, and the markets continue sailing off the end of the earth. This company is an extremely high candidate for getting acquired. Even higher than Novavax, in my gnome-sized opinion. That the CEO said SGMO has 18,000 ideas to choose from....

     

    Added a smidge of BCON, though I'm wondering now if I should be in this stock. Once again, it's "tripping the lights fantastic," and has been "restricted."
    23 May 2011, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    OG: Remember (NEP)? China Northeast Petroleum Holdings. Check out today's chart. Someone bought a pile of this stock today. It appears price was no object. Market order?

     

    I'm watching and waiting. Until it returns to the $3.1x area. Where I bought it before it popped.
    23 May 2011, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Bought (LYSDY) today. I also bought (SKF) today - double short of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Financials SM Index. I previously purchased (SDS) and (DRR). I am moving more heavly into hedge positions.
    23 May 2011, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Re: between the levies breached and midwest tornados and hail
    it looks like lots of farmland was ruined.
    More storms are coming.
    Looks like the price of food should be going up, unfortunately.
    I feel bad for all of those people. The storm in Joplin really devastated that town.
    23 May 2011, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    It's terrible the inundation the midwest and the south are enduring.

     

    Another subject Guns and I broached was wood. Between the devastation in Japan, and the storms and floods here, once we get through whatever tumble were in the midst of, a company like Weyerhaeuser might be a good play.

     

    Below is a list of lumber companies via Tickerspy. Due to the housing crisis, this sector gets no love. Check out how many are way beneath their 52 week highs.

     

    www.tickerspy.com/inde...

     

    Guns and I also think corn futures are going to soar. The midwest has been so soaked, that farmers can't get seed into the ground. June 1 is widely known to midwesterners as the last day to begin planting.
    23 May 2011, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    I read that all the topsoil is washing away or blowing away.
    23 May 2011, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • Tom Au, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6879) | Send Message
     
    That's what happened in the 1930s, via the Dust Bowl, because we "overfarmed" in the 1920s.

     

    Probably the same in the past decade. Both for "real" farms and the economy as a whole.

     

    Which is why this is probably the modern 1930s.
    24 May 2011, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Which is the lumber company sitting on loads of shale lands?
    23 May 2011, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Reply to myself: Plum Creek Timber (PLC) is a REIT. It pays over 4% dividend.
    My memory is slipping for real.
    23 May 2011, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Pardee Resources has coal, lumber, shale lands, and a whole lot more. It's a pink sheets,.Pardee Resources Company (PDER.PK)
    grayvulture.com/2010/1.../
    23 May 2011, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Tangenting from wood/lumber. My favorite funny-yet-true investing thesis I've heard (which I'm not invested in yet) is: imagine if everyone in every country starts using toilet paper. (insert inevitable holy ______)

     

    FBKZF/FBK.TO would be the QC appropriate idea here I think, though there are certainly others... its on a bit of retrace down... but figure I should mention these things when they come to mind... I'll probably forget about it when the timing's right.

     

    OG had mentioned lumber last week (I think) and I concur with Maya, DG, and OG... there should be an opportunity there somewhere in woody stuff. Unfortunately, I suspect the real play may be the institutional investors buying up forestry, as a lot of the rest of it has to deal with "flationist" issues (in, de, or stag - your choice) that may effect profit margins.

     

    (written at same time as OG's responses, adding wood to the fire I suppose)
    23 May 2011, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Clever fellow!
    23 May 2011, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1744) | Send Message
     
    OG et al, re timber: You jogged my memory. I knew I wrote an article extolling PCL and RYN but didn't remember when. Found it -- 10 Nov last year. Both have done well, as I believe PDER and PCH will, with Deltic and Pope not far behind. But I think, today, if I were purchasing anew it would be WY. Timber close to China and Japan, sustainable managers with a proven track record, and stock valuation all augur well for WY.
    23 May 2011, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Joe.
    You know what I've been reading about? One of those huge investment letter conglomerates from Baltimore is pumping thorium.
    Nuclear needs continue, people are afraid of another Japanese-type disaster with uranium. I've looked at thorium via Lightbridge several times. (Starting before they changed their name and uplisted-- Freya and Conan and I discussed it maybe 2007 or 2008? I don't know when, but it's been a few years).They are still bleeding buckets of $, so I think it's still too early for me. Does anyone have any other thorium plays?
    23 May 2011, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Thorium plays abound in the REE space. GWM inherited a large stockpile when they bought the Steenkampskraal Mine in South Africa. Many major players will be creating thorium as a component of their waste, including Lynas at their new LAMP in Malaysia (where the issue with the local environmental fringe is thorium disposal).

     

    GWM or Lynas either one would be an indirect Thorium play, with a number of REE juniors in the HREE sector more long shot ideas.
    24 May 2011, 07:07 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Nuclear energy article by widely followed oil pump...er (and there's a part 2 coming):
    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    I'm a bit troubled that he doesn't mention Mega has the same management as Pinetree or anything about the fall out from the Areva-Siemens joint venture break-up... and that's just two things in an industry I know little about.

     

    This article by a new SA author on two stem cell companies was interesting, especially since he mentioned only two companies have FDA approval for clinical trials, then writes about one, and says he's long the other:
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    24 May 2011, 07:36 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1744) | Send Message
     
    I can't disagree with his first two picks. CCJ is pure quality, DNN a great speculation on Wheeler River. While prices are depressed, I've been rolling some of the lesser names that got over-extended pre-Fukushima into these two.
    24 May 2011, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    8:07 AM ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG) reports that a district court rendered its final judgment last week on the Gulf of Mexico deepwater drilling permits, finding the government "acted unlawfully by unreasonably delaying action on each of the nine permit applications at issue in this case." (PR) Comment! [Energy]
    24 May 2011, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): A great PDF from an Indonesian study that looks at CPST to help meet the energy needs of the future. Nice comparisons, side-by-side of CPST vs recip, solar, ...

     

    Thanks to Terakauriimu at Investorsvillage for the post.

     

    20500.d1098701.mydomai...

     

    HardToLove
    24 May 2011, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): And the government seems to be behind a push to use MT in Indonesia with road shows, training programs for operators and users.

     

    A nice PDF from 12/10 20500.d1098701.mydomai...

     

    posted by Jesinternational at Investorsvillage. Thanks & H.T. to 'im!

     

    HardToLove
    24 May 2011, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Another DC colossal boondoggle has surfaced! 3700 known government contractors and non-profit tax cheats, who owed a combined $757 million in back taxes, received more than $24 billion from the stimulus package.

     

    I guess that's just barely enough money to pay off those back taxes!

     

    Way to go Biden, Mr. "Monitor of TARP funds." Great job you're doing!

     

    (Appologies--link would not paste, so I pasted the whole AP story below):

     

    WASHINGTON AP Newswire — Thousands of companies that cashed in on President Barack Obama's economic stimulus package owed the government millions in unpaid taxes, congressional investigators have found.

     

    The Government Accountability Office, in a report being released Tuesday, said at least 3,700 government contractors and nonprofit organizations that received more than $24 billion from the stimulus effort owed $757 million in back taxes as of Sept. 30, 2009, the end of the budget year.

     

    The report said the tax delinquents accounted for nearly 6 percent of the 63,000 contractors and grantees examined and cautioned that the real number might be higher because the known tax debt does not measure such factors as income underreporting.

     

    Among the examples was an engineering firm that received a $100,000 stimulus act contract but owed $6 million in taxes. The IRS called it "an extreme case of noncompliance." A social services nonprofit that received more than $1 million in stimulus funds owed taxes of $2 million.

     

    The GAO referred those two cases and 13 others to the IRS for further investigation.

     

    On Tuesday, a Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs subcommittee will hold a hearing on the report.

     

    Federal law does not prohibit tax delinquents from getting government contracts or grants, though there are provisions that enable the government to withhold payments in some cases. While the federal government requires contractors to present documentation that their taxes are paid, some recipients escaped federal review because the money was disbursed at state or local levels.

     

    Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., chairman of the investigations subcommittee holding the hearing, said it's been known for years that a few federal contractors and grantees don't pay their taxes.

     

    He said a program to recover funds from tax delinquents has been strengthened, and "the executive branch has made it clear" that nonpayment of tax can be grounds for denying a specific contract or barring a contractor from bidding on any contract. He added that the executive branch should "get on with it" and bar "the worst of the tax cheats from the contractor workforce."

     

    "It is a matter of basic fairness that those who take government money should be required to pay their taxes like everyone else," said Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, the panel's top Republican. "That such a huge amount of the stimulus money went to known tax cheats should be a wakeup call for Congress.'"

     

    The stimulus package, enacted in February 2009, funneled some $821 billion into the recession-hit economy. Of that, about $275 billion was designated for contracts and grants, of which nearly $200 billion had been paid out as of March 25, 2011.

     

    The report noted that about 35 percent of the unpaid taxes were for debts incurred prior to 2003 and that more than half of the apparent violations, $417 million, were from unpaid corporate taxes. Another quarter, $207 million, came from unpaid payroll taxes.

     

    The most serious documented case was a security firm that owed $9 million, mainly in unpaid payroll taxes from the mid-2000s. IRS records indicated that the company paid other creditors while shirking its tax obligations. The company, which received more than $100,000 in stimulus money, had a history of being uncooperative, missing deadlines and repeatedly filing appeals, according to the records.

     

    Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., chairman of the Finance Committee, said every unpaid tax dollar was "added to our deficit or taken from future generations, so I will certainly use the conclusions from this report to look for new ways to ensure everyone pays their fair share."

     

    For Republican the report provided another way to criticize Obama's recovery package. "This shows how fundamentally flawed the failed stimulus has turned out to be when Washington jams through almost a trillion dollars in spending with little scrutiny," said Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah, top Republican on the Senate Finance Committee.

     

    moneywatch.bnet.com/ec.../
    24 May 2011, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    The article seems to have moved? Link doesn't work ATM.

     

    HardToLove
    24 May 2011, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Yep. I had to end run that problem.
    24 May 2011, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • QuickChat
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, time for the new QC, you all!

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    Error messages seem to be running a little early today, the elves must be restless..

     

    8888888888888888888888...
    24 May 2011, 01:42 PM Reply Like
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