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  • QC #257, May 10, 2013 348 comments
    May 10, 2013 9:19 AM

    NEW and improved!~

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Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

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  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    Ahhh- Thank you Trip-
    Venturing forth into the clear airspace unhindered by detritus, flotsam and jetsam.

     

    WT
    10 May 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    However , Market fog is still heavy.
    10 May 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Hot off the press (May 8) here is Wells Fargo's May Outlook:

     

    After outpacing the broader market, MLPs took a breather in April, up 0.7%, as compared to S&P's gain of 1.8%. However, MLPs continue to outperform on a year-to-date basis, generating a total return of 21% versus 12.7% for the S & P. Year-to-date outperformance has been driven by the following factors, in our view, (1) overall equity market strength, (2) continued strong fund flows, (3) Q1 distribution announcements and strength in natural gas prices.

     

    Outlook -- More Cautious Following Strong Year-To-Date Performance [for MLPs].

     

    Given the year-to-date strength in performance, we expect some sector consolidation in the near term. In addition to valuation, a number of factors lead us to a more cautious stance, including (1) a likely pickup in equity issuance following earnings season (late May/June), (2) a likely slowdown in US GDP growth, and (3) a historic pattern of weak performance in May. Notwithstanding, we maintain a long-term positive outlook on the group, driven by the following, (1) MLP's still attractive yields, (2) solid fundamentals (median 2013 distribution growth forecast of about 5%), supported by the continued buildout of crude oil and NGL midstream infrastructure, and ( 3) healthy fund flows.

     

    Top Picks: Our top outperform-rated picks include ACMP, ATLS, ETE, LINE, and WMB.

     

    ####

     

    This is just the first page of the report! I'll read more and likely write more this weekend as I digest the 23 page report. Hat tip to my advisor for providing the Outlook Report.

     

    Hope this helps!
    10 May 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Maya! Looking fwd to it!

     

    HardToLove
    10 May 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Maya-
    Should be interesting reading.

     

    Windwood Trader
    10 May 2013, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Maya for helping clear some of that market fog.
    10 May 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Maria Bartiromo on CNBC sounded absolutely amazed that folks in stocks were back at 1999 levels. Then a guest reminded her of I'net bubble, Enron, early 2000s recessions, .... and the others through the "Great Recession".

     

    HardToLove
    10 May 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (960) | Send Message
     
    See #2 under Economics

     

    http://bit.ly/15x5SGt
    10 May 2013, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    jpau-
    Where did you ever dig that up? OUTSTANDING!

     

    Her assets were few but significant, however her acumen left a result somewhat desired and not articulated clearly.

     

    Windwood Trader
    10 May 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    I enjoyed it regardless. Tried to avoid thinking about it too much though - more pragmatic needs beckon for now.

     

    Great find.

     

    HardToLove
    11 May 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (960) | Send Message
     
    I occasionally read his blog WT - that article really stayed with me for a long time, I liked it so much.
    12 May 2013, 07:19 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    I have been in emerging markets in both income oriented and equity oriented ETFs for about a year. I have seen a dilution of quality and returns in the emerging markets arena due to their growing popularity. I feel that in the equity area emerging market ETFs are moving closer to the action of larger cap domestics.

     

    While the yields of emerging market income ETFs have dropped a bit once again because of their popularity they still are- IMHO a solid income source and less risky than many of the sovereigns.

     

    For equity ETFs I feel that a better opportunity may exist in frontier markets such as eastern Europe, Turkey, Mongolia, Sri Lanka and dozens of others. (thanks to Jon Springer for bringing Sri Lanka to my attention.)

     

    Tom Lydon lists several in his comments-
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    And Bloomberg has this group as well.
    http://bloom.bg/ZO0VRP

     

    ETF Database lists three that meet their criteria for inclusion.

     

    http://bit.ly/15VnrQm

     

    I have been in $FN since last Fall and believe it's YTD return of 12% ain't too shabby.

     

    I am considering others as well. You all may agree.

     

    Windwood Trader
    10 May 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    We're not the only country worried about a potential bubble pop- both in equities And real estate, with interest in savings accounts at a less-than-zero yield.

     

    http://bit.ly/YLaSEq

     

    Windwood Trader
    10 May 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    So when it happens its gonna get smeared on ALL of us. How comforting. Misery loves company.

     

    http://bit.ly/15VxLYP
    10 May 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5179) | Send Message
     
    Look at this. I purchased RTN 9/8/2008. Here is where I stand after holding it more than 4 years, getting a dividend of approximately 3.5% per year issued quarterly.( I also note that the high today is on low volume.) I was holding it at a loss for most of that time.
    No wonder the small investors fled the market never to return! Sequestering was one of the catalysts that made this stock rise 18% this year...imo.

     

    (From Schwab):

     

    RTN increased $0.54 today to $64.01 on volume of 753,119 shares. Since this alert was set on Sep 08, 2008 RTN has increased 6.11%.

     

    During the last three months, RTN's peers in the Aerospace & Defense industry have increased 11.56% while RTN increased 18.18%.
    10 May 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    I lost my (you know what) on retail property when we closed one of our offices I had to let it go for a very, very significant loss.
    10 May 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    OG>

     

    "No wonder the small investors fled the market never to return!"

     

    I believe more than ever that the small investor is primarily the source for incomes for the fat cats and company. Get the cannon fodder to buy and sell and the finance folks pay the note on the Bimmer.

     

    The little guy is better off going to the OTB and saying "Gimme a thousand on Yahoo to win."

     

    Don't invest- Trade instead.

     

    Windwood Trader
    11 May 2013, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    I was looking at my environmentally green list of stocks and only one stood out with many gone. HXL continues to climb. They make composites for the wind industry, space, military, etc... They must be doing something right or Benny has. Wish I had bought them.

     

    From a list of 32 stocks only 2 are in the green. The other is TTEK and 8 are bankrupt. That was my list of stocks to watch once BO was elected since I figured they would soar. Face plant seems to be the reality.
    10 May 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    DG-
    Sorry to hear you took a loss in RE. I always felt that you may buy high but over time you probably will come out OK.

     

    I can look back and clearly see 20 Baggers that I let slip by-
    So goes the battle.

     

    Windwood Trader
    10 May 2013, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    An experimental S&P model I have been working on hit a critical value at the close this afternoon. That critical value suggests we just passed a tipping point and if the model is correct, a correction should occur next week.
    10 May 2013, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    FPA-

     

    I for one would like to hear more about that-

     

    WT
    10 May 2013, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2679) | Send Message
     
    Ditto, FPA, very interested in hearing what you are tracking and what got triggered.
    Thx, mj
    10 May 2013, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I am going to post an insta on it WT as soon as I have the time to work up the charts.
    10 May 2013, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    Sounds good FPA-
    Thanks!

     

    WT
    11 May 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Great FPA. Looking forward to it.

     

    HardToLove
    11 May 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    Bill Gross - Pimco

     

    Most recent comments- A worthwhile read.

     

    http://bit.ly/11sIvws

     

    Windwood Trader
    11 May 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2679) | Send Message
     
    Good article WT: "even IF… even IF QEs and near zero-bound yields are able to refloat global economies and generate a semblance of old normal real growth, they will do so utilizing historically tried and true “haircuts” that rather surreptitiously “trim” an asset holder’s money without them really knowing they had entered a barbershop" -- so very true.

     

    I also found this late Friday night missive "well timed" after the market close: Fed Maps Exit From Stimulus http://on.wsj.com/10y8BI1

     

    And just a reminder of market performance each time we have been offered Fed candy and then had the jar taken away. All good perspective to "chew on": http://bit.ly/13omm00
    11 May 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Good finds, Mercy.

     

    Is Jon Hilsenrath the Vanna White for Ben Bernanke?
    11 May 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    Mercy-

     

    Thanks for some good articles. I really liked this one comment-

     

    "...they will do so utilizing historically tried and true “haircuts” that rather surreptitiously “trim” an asset holder’s money without them really knowing they had entered a barbershop"

     

    Kind of like slowly boiling a frog with the frog starting out in a pot of cold water.

     

    Windwood Trader
    11 May 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    ZH offered this graphic- Without Comment:

     

    http://bit.ly/19eZUXa

     

    FPA- Might this be a component of your S&P prognostication project?

     

    Windwood Trader
    12 May 2013, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Hi WT
    It’s not the primary signal, but an auxiliary signal. Starting on 4/29, volume dropped from around 3B daily shares to around 445M daily shares. That’s a reduction in daily volume of between 6 and 7 times the average. This is not a random occurrence,

     

    I looked at the FED’s POMO schedule, and they are buying in May. So this appears to be a NON FED coordinated activity.

     

    This has nothing to do with the signal I am looking at, but between the two signals, it was enough to put me mostly into cash on Friday.

     

    I am on deadline on two production statistics projects. As soon as I finish these, I will get to work on the insta.

     

    In the meantime, I suggest caution, and for those with risk in their hearts... it might be a good time to consider a macro short. I would be very careful with a macro short. That sudden reduction of volume by what must be a large number of pros on 4/29 makes me wonder what other coordinated activities are in the script...
    12 May 2013, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    Rattie, all coordinated activities are for our good I am sure. /s
    13 May 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    Here is an article on LINE today at SA.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    13 May 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Guns and anyone interested in the MLP sector:

     

    From the Wells report on MLPs that I received on Friday, LINE is rated outperform, with a low valuation rating of $40/share, and a high valuation rating of $44. The "potential return" is 29%. This report was based on the closing price May 6, of $34.98. LINE's YTD performance so far is down 1%.

     

    I never knew there are so many MLPs out there. Scads!

     

    Here's a selection from the lengthy list of Outperform and Market Perform ratings, all designated with a higher than 10% "potential return." All data is intraday from May 6.

     

    BretBurn Energy Partners L.P. (BBEP) $18.95, yield 10%, YTD performance +3%, low valuation $22, high valuation $24, potential return 32%. Rated Outperform

     

    Crestwood Midstream Partners L.P. (CMLP) $24.90, yield 8.2%, YTD performance 8.2%, low valuation $26, high valuation $28, potential return 17%. Rated Outperform

     

    Capital Product Partners L.P. (CPLP) $8.87, yield 10.5%, YTD performance 10.5%, low valuation $9, high valuation $10, potential return 18%. Rated Outperform

     

    Eagle Rock Energy Partners L.P. (EROC) $9.00, yield 9.8%, YTD performance 4%, low valuation $10, high valuation $12, potential return 32%. Rated Market Perform

     

    LLR Energy LLC (LRE) $15.58, yield 12.4%, YTD performance (9%), low valuation $18, high valuation $20. Potential return 34%. Rated Market Perform

     

    Mid-Con Energy Partners (MCEP) $23.27, yield 8.7%, YTD performance 8.7%, low valuation $23, high valuation $25. Potential return 12%. Rated Market Perform

     

    Memorial Production Partners L.P. (MEMP) $19.07, yield 10.7%, YTD performance 7%, low valuation $21, high valuation $23, Potential return 26%. Rated Outperform

     

    Ns ka Gas Storage Partners LLC (NKA) $15.10, yield 9.3%, YTD performance 39%, low valuation $16, high valuation $18. Potential return 22%. Rated Outperform

     

    QR Energy L.P. (QRE) $16.94, yield 11.5%, YTD performance 2%, low valuation $17, high valuation $19, Potential return 18%. Rated Market Perform

     

    ####

     

    I may have to look into selling my Buckeye Pipeline (BPL), as it's up 48% so far this year, and Wells has the potential return going forward as negative 4%.

     

    If anyone has an MLP not listed above, and wants to know what Wells Fargo thinks, I be happy to provide the data.

     

    13 May 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Forbes article today on Breitburn Energy Partners (BBEP), basically stating that one can buy shares for LESS than a recent offering, and that BBEP is beneath its 200 moving average:

     

    http://onforb.es/15G5IwH
    13 May 2013, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    >MAYA-

     

    $SMAPX is a Salient MLP that I find interesting, $SMLPX is another-

     

    Maya-

     

    Can you give WF's take on it?

     

    Thanks, WT
    13 May 2013, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    (MLPX) May 6 intraday price was $37.95, yield 2.9%, up 22% YTD, low valuation is $32, high valuation is $35. Potential return negative 9%. Rated Market Perform.

     

    Though being up 22% YTD, MLPX seems to not be one of the better MLPs out there going forward.

     

    (MAPX) did not make the list.
    13 May 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    Is a rating given for Markwest Energy partners (MWE)?
    13 May 2013, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: Yep. (MWE) March 6 intraday price, $62.23, YTD performance up 22%, yield 5.3%, low valuation $67, high valuation $71, potential return 16%. Rated Outperform.

     

    ####

     

    I'm surely glad that I inherited my grandfather's really cool magnifying glass...this WFC MLP chart is in super dense, eye fatiguing tiny font!
    13 May 2013, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Maya. http://bit.ly/RH4GDs doesn't present any rating assessment info, but the text is readable for MLP names, yields, etc. (Scroll down the page to see MLP names in alphabetical order or click on "Master Limited Partnerships -- by Yield" at top of page).
    13 May 2013, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Maya-

     

    I wasn't sure about that Salient group.

     

    $PSE is an LP apparently not an MLP. I am out of the stock on a big pop but feel there may be more to the story.

     

    Anything from WF on them?

     

    WT
    14 May 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Pacific Southwest Energy Partners (PSE) May 6th intraday @ $25.83, yield 8.1%, YTD performance 14%, low valuation $25, high valuation $28, potential return 11%, Rated Market Perform

     

    ####

     

    Look at LINE go today! Up 60 cents.
    14 May 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Just bought a block of (BBEP) at $19.32. Seemed the best chance of the MLP sector to both provide a great yield, as well as potential upside, as the above WF May report indicated at 32% potential return. Plus, the price is lower than the recent offering.

     

    Only LINE can I see having as good as a potential upside return.

     

    ####

     

    I recognize I'm writing against the grain (as QuickChat for years has been more bearish than bullish), but I simply can't see anyway the market is going to have any significant pullback anytime soon, despite the awful macro data, all the "unsustainables" we've all been tracking for years, and that I'm reading the US's GDP will turn downward through the rest of this year.

     

    12 central banks lowered their rates last week. Greece didn't stifle the market, nor did Cyprus, nor Syria, nor North Korea, nor the Eurozone.

     

    There's just too much money flowing into US equities from foreign countries, as well as from mutual and hedge funds. And though this is the 18th consecutive up Tuesday (amazing tradable stat there), I fully expect next Tuesday that the market will be slightly higher than today.

     

    We might get a (orchestrated) pullback sometime this summer, as all summers since 2009 have had a summertime pullback, but it won't be a large retrace.

     

    As always, other opinions are welcomed.
    14 May 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Greetings. I hold a long position in (ARLP) what does WF think.
    16 May 2013, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Hey, Bob! Good to see you! First, from what I have noticed ever since Cramer gave his TV show's subject of MLPs, the entire sector has been jumped on by the hedgies. No...they are not buying, they are selling, to push the price down so that after hours, or before the markets open tomorrow, they can buy back in at a lower price, and us retail investors get screwed. Damn, these people!

     

    Right before close, I'm going to do a small buy of an MLP, just for kicks.

     

    Let's see, Alliance Resource Partners is getting WF coverage:

     

    May 6th Intraday price, $72.48, yield 6.2%, YTD performance 28%, low valuation $70, high valuation $78, potential return 9%, rated Market Perform
    16 May 2013, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Fun time, experimental order of (KMP) was nabbed at $88.20. The stock went down 82 cents post the Cramer comment.

     

    Will see where it opens and where KMP goes tomorrow. Wouldn't surprise me a bit if these tyrannical bastards try to push it down further post market today, and pre market tomorrow, to shake out the stops.

     

    LINE was also pushed down from $35.77, to $35.20, post the Cramer comment. Guaranteed Cramer will be talking up Linn Energy.
    16 May 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Maya! Good luck with the MLP pick.
    16 May 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5179) | Send Message
     
    Maya, watch what kind of account you use for these MLP's. Talk to your accountant if you are contemplating putting them in an IRA.
    Those K-1's can bite you in the a$$!
    16 May 2013, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2689) | Send Message
     
    I noticed that the price of "out of the money" Jan 2014 PUTs, on several industrial stocks, jumped rather drastically over the weekend.

     

    No volume, but much more pessimistic by far. Several of my positions doubled in bid or ask price. Interesting. Is reality sinking in?
    13 May 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    Watch the VIX.

     

    Article on SA today.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    13 May 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2689) | Send Message
     
    Checking back later today ( around 2:30 Monday) I saw the spread from the morning prices was gone. The price changes on the options must have been an artifact of the weekend or some other hiccup. Sigh. The profits were nice, for a while :-)
    13 May 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Its about time for another government intervention.

     

    Everyone is fiercely focused on the Fed, so I suspect we will have something from Treasury this time. Could also be an indirect (more subtle, or at least, so they think) announcement via their allies in Europe...

     

    Watch the PMs. The tell might show up first there, perhaps in silver.
    14 May 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    10 year weekly GLD chart breaking down; gold "could" be heading to $1150.
    14 May 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I should start to free up tomorrow… Does anyone have a source for the current average price of stocks in the S&P ? Rough guess is somewhere between $60 and $75.
    15 May 2013, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    FPA-

     

    PM for you.

     

    WT
    15 May 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    FPA-

     

    I searched a bit and finally contacted S&P and asked them for what the average current price of the components is.

     

    I went all through their web sites and found out that the capitalization of the 500 components totals $15,857,000,000,000.47.

     

    I'll get back to you when they respond.

     

    WT
    15 May 2013, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Thanks so much for getting that info for me WT. It helps put some things into a useful perspective.
    15 May 2013, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    IRS meddling in political process just might push people to effect significant change in our tax system. Might be a good time to give some serious thought to type of tax system one would like to see.

     

    I for one absolutely will not support any type of value added tax system or any variant of the so-called Fair Tax.
    15 May 2013, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    D-inv-

     

    I'm with you-

     

    I read the book and saw how it would create a wad of loopholes that anyone with a $300k or over income could work to their advantage- no problemo, man- a few benefit a whole lot pay the price.

     

    Having said that I DO believe that our selectively beneficial "systems" tax or otherwise is no way near fair- From ridiculous farm subsidies to bail-out corporate welfare to oil depletion allowances to TBTF banks. I don't think the founding fathers were thinking that way.

     

    WT
    15 May 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    I am for a consumption tax and the fairtax has been the best one that I have seen anyone put out yet. No to VAT or FLAT. Fairtax even eliminates the IRS with is a huge tax payer cost that we could simply eliminate. What specific issues or loop holes are you referring to .
    15 May 2013, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    DG-

     

    Its been a long time since I read the book but I do remember some- in my humble opinion, standout issues.

     

    - Pretty easy to purchase anything you can outside the country and bring it back with you if it's portable. Maybe all those IRS agents will become customs officers though.

     

    - Avoid sales tax through the age old barter system. You need a rug? I need a washer/dryer. There are websites that will arrange a barter arrangement for a small fee. Definite growth industry. Craigslist could get involved. No tax on used stuff? How used does it need to be.

     

    Gray Markets abound.

     

    - Underground economies would grow, not diminish. People with access would purchase their food from various forms of vendors, farms, co-ops maybe once again probably looking to barter. EBAY would be ten times bigger than Apple and Google put together.

     

    - Prebates- The biggest welfare program ever dreamed up. The whole country gets a check every month? Just think of what that bureaucratic boondoggle is going to cost. Might be a chance at abuse and incompetence as well, I believe.

     

    - Charitable organizations, religious organizations and I suppose other non-profits would not have to pay the tax.

     

    I lived in an area once where every house in a particular sub-division was declared to be a place of worship and a school for the neighborhood. Result? No property taxes- No income taxes for the residents since they were all religious scholars living for the community. Exemption from the tax as a religious entity. The kids in these houses still attended the schools outside the community as well.
    I can see a boom in this type of arrangement.

     

    The first thing I though of after reading the book several years ago was that it was really designed to benefit the top brackets income people. And if it was- then everyone below that level would be making up the difference. The big boys keep the money in Europe and the Caribbean where they can have their palaces and buy their corporate jets and yachts.

     

    The next thing I thought about was the transition, but that was really talked to death and important but not something I spent a lot of time on- We'll just hope the government gets it right.

     

    There are a litany of abuses and inefficiencies in our current tax system. Reform? Somebody benefits- Someone else pays the bill. Been that way since the beginning. The way it works now is the ones that control the system benefit the most. I predict that it would be the same beneficiaries under the Fair Tax, good intentions by some notwithstanding.

     

    WT
    15 May 2013, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    WT your points are all valid but exist today in our present system but so much worse off. . If and that is a big IF we get the chance to change things issues as you have identified need to be addressed but we have got to start talking because the system we have now is sooooo much worse and no other option has been brought forward that moves in a positive direction as I feel fair tax does. Maybe not perfect but so much better. JMHO

     

    Needless to say I am a fair tax fan until someone shows me a better way.
    16 May 2013, 02:03 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    "Needless to say I am a fair tax fan until someone shows me a better way."

     

    Perhaps I am just incredibly dense about what is "fair". How is it that you see "the fair tax" as fair? It is quite literally beyond my comprehension to understand how anyone considers "the fair tax" as "fair" other than definition by arbitrary assertion.
    16 May 2013, 02:41 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    Easy, pay tax on what you consume. Buy a mansion pay lots of tax, buy a rollsroyce pay lots of tax. Spend you money on trinkets from china that break every week pay lots of tax but Folks who consume tons of junk will pay extra tax on that consumption all the while its being hauled off to the land fill.

     

    Dig it out of the ground, manufacture crap out of it, use it up, and then send it off to another hole in the ground and you can pay more tax.

     

    Live a simply (normal to me) life and your tax is minimal.

     

    Consume like hell....pay like hell. We have got to get some reason in our lives. This tax system seems to do it.
    16 May 2013, 03:10 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    "Easy, pay tax on what you consume."

     

    Except that is not what "the Fair Tax" proposal would provide. Chapter 8, pages 75-76 of the paperback edition of "The Fair Tax Book" by Neal Boortz and John Linder explains (defines) the tax as,
    "The Fair Tax Act abolishes all taxes on income. In place of the many taxes we pay today -- the corporate income tax, personal income tax, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and all the others listed earlier -- consumers will pay an embedded personal consumption tax of 23 percent on all goods sold at the retail level. Note, please, that we said 'retail level.' The 23 percent tax will not be imposed on the sale of used or previously owned items. Your garage sales are safe."

     

    It appears "the Fair Tax" proposes taxation of short-lived goods and immediately consumed services a bit differently than it does long-lived, durable goods. It appears one would pay federal sales tax on new autos/trucks/boats/pla... but not on purchases of previously owned items of the same type. Tax treat of a host of services (house/apartment rentals for instance) is far from clear. How might "retail" be defined? Might it include sale of labor services to employers and, if not, why not? Why should a professional's services (lawyers, doctors, engineering consultants, economic consultants, financial advisers, architects, plumbers, electricians, etc.) be subject to tax when those of retail clerks, customer service representatives, etc. or not.

     

    17 May 2013, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    "ALL" goods sold at retail. Everyone knows that this also includes larger capital goods like automobiles, trucks, appliances, etc, not just "short lived goods and immediately consumed services".

     

    Perhaps the confusion comes with the term "retail". For instance, we often refer here to "retail investors". In that case, would the FairTax include a tax on the purchase of stocks, bonds and options on the various exchanges? IMO, the answer would be "yes". Defining what would and would not be a taxable trade (and depending on the definition, wouldn't THAT put a large hole in the HFT quantmonkey garbage scow?) would be one of the all-time wild debates in Congress, though. I would come down for equal treatment for ALL traders, big and small, with trading desks at banks viewed as "retail" every bit as much as the smallest account for individual investors. Would manipulative option actions such as the long time JPM (and friends) silver trades be considered "retail"? I hope so, for if the premise of paper PMs and PM ETFs and ETNs are to be believed, ALL such trades are the same as buying and selling the physical metal (OK, I really DON'T believe that, but one has to smile anyway)...

     

    "Professional" services (doctors, lawyers, indian chiefs) are not exempted from the Fair Tax UNLESS they are rendering those services to a Corporation under rules exempting them from the FairTax.

     

    Indeed, the definition of "retail" is at the heart of the matter. The authors have a very broad concept which will include those things which we would all view as "retail", but will the actual installation be just as corrupt and idiotic as the current income tax methodology? Potentially. As recent political events have amply demonstrated, ANYTHING can happen in an election, and elections definitely have consequences... Similarly, ANYTHING political (and taxes definitely qualify) can be bastardized and create just another roadmap to evil.

     

    I prefer to hold out hope that the original concept can be installed intact, and correctly formulated (preferably starting with the repeal of the 16th Amendment, of course). If the assumption is that venal definitions and the usual trickery enabling the current crony capitalist/socialist system will be superimposed upon the new tax system, then no further discussion is possible. We are without hope and without a future.
    17 May 2013, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, by not requiring a retax on items once sold and taxes were paid on iits original sale we can begin to ensure that over consumption does not occur just because we want a nice shiny new car every year simply places way to much burden on our natural resources. It also encourages the complete use of items instead of dumping good usable products in land fills.

     

    Additionally those at the lower spectrum can avoid additional tax by purchasing used cars, shopping at the thrift store etc...and that removes some of the tax burden from them. Used items have a life span so the world would not be filled with everyone using only used items and most wealthy folks like to have the newest fashions, cars, etc.... that would mean they pay more often and more period since those items are usually much more expensive.

     

    Services I believe would be charged the tax, think hair cuts, manicures etc in addition to lawyers etc...

     

    The biggest benefit I see to this tax is it takes it away from the companies and collects it at the retail point. No longer do the companies charge more for a product to collect thier tax and put it in their tax bucket only to trade out portions of that tax money to politicians for tax relief to keep the remainder for themselves. If they do not have the tax bucket they cant get their fingers on it or trade it to politicians. The down side of this is the politicians wont vote for this since they loose power to collect bribes for reelection.

     

    There are many items to be worked out and NOTHING presently written is law until its passed as law. I fear it will be perverted by the politicians when or if they ever do discuss making this law. CON-gress are still all con-men so getting it past them is the true hurdle.
    17 May 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    <
    "ALL" goods sold at retail. Everyone knows that this also includes larger capital goods like automobiles, trucks, appliances, etc, not just "short lived goods and immediately consumed services".

     

    Perhaps the confusion comes with the term "retail".
    <
    There is no confusion on my part, Trip. The quoted passage from Boortz's book explicitly noted that sales (Your garage sales are safe!) of used or previously goods would not be taxed. The point I addressed is perhaps a bit subtle, but it nevertheless identifies a fatal flaw of "the Fair Tax" as proposed. Under the proposal, the full utility from consumption of perishable (non-durable) goods is taxed in year of consumption (time of sale). Consumption utility of durable goods/services, OTOH, is only partially realized in year of retail sale since durables are 'consumed' across multiple time periods (years) and may never be fully consumed by the 'retail' buyer.

     

    Excess consumption tax would be paid by any and all 'retail' buyers of new durable goods who subsequently resell the product (autos, trucks, houses, boats, trailers, etc.) unless those sellers of used goods embed the excess tax paid at time of original retail purchase in the sales price of their used goods. The extent to which this phenomena would occur would vary directly with the changes in demand for new durable goods levy of the consumption tax would impose over time. Placing a 20%-25% tax on new autos, new houses, new lawnmowers, etc. would dramatically change relative price structures in the economy and dramatically dampen demand for durable goods through both income and price effects.

     

    Taxing 'consumption' of durable and non-durable goods at a single point in time creates a fundamental "net present value" disparity in taxation of those broad types of goods. That disparity could be addressed/resolved in a manner implied by the Dale Jorgenson analysis, but to do so would preserve the IRS in some fashion.

     

    :-) It is safe to say you have now encountered someone who has read the source materials on the Fair Tax proposal and finds the proposal woefully lacking as a workable or desirable alternative to our existing income tax system. The existing tax system must be changed, but "Fair Tax" is not the solution IMO.

     

    20 May 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (960) | Send Message
     
    Just food for thought
    http://bit.ly/10Qlpd1
    20 May 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    "Using a panel of 18 OECD countries over the period 1960-2009 ...."
    "The quadratic relationship found for the whole sample period does not hold over the period 1975-2009. Instead, the link between top tax rates and GDP growth after 1975 is well summarized by a linear and positive top tax-growth relationship. "

     

    Gee, reading that abstract one might get the idea that tax rates within the OECD area were fairly homogeneous over the period analyzed and that small things such as conduct and conclusion of the Vietnam War, Arab Oil Embargo, jettisoning of gold standard by the U.S., dramatic expansion of world trade, etc. were of minor significance relative to "top tax rates" in OECD countries.

     

    I think Mr. Waldmann and his student, Santo Milasi, may not want many people to read that paper.
    20 May 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    My guess is that resale of homes, cars, boats etc from retail dealers and realtors would be taxed at sale even thought he items are used. If the item has appreciated the tax might even be higher on the used item. One normally doesn't sell the garage at a garage sale. Thus not all used items especially durables would not be exempt to the tax. The differential you speak of with the price escalation due to taxation would be offset by income growth due to not taxing income so the dampening of economic activity would also be offset once the sticker shock effect wears off. In any circumstance the current system is not working to our advantage and at this point appears to be unworkable.
    20 May 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    "My guess is that resale of homes, cars, boats etc from retail dealers and realtors would be taxed at sale even thought he items are used."

     

    :-) Then it would not be the Fair Tax as proposed!

     

    "The differential you speak of with the price escalation due to taxation would be offset by income growth due to not taxing income so the dampening of economic activity would also be offset once the sticker shock effect wears off."

     

    Where (how) one assesses taxes is not necessarily an indicator or where the tax burden falls. Collection of taxes and incidence of taxation of entirely different things. Bottom line -- people bear the burden of taxes regardless of the collection mechanism. The burden of taxes will be embedded in amount(s) paid for goods and services whether taxes are levied on income or on consumption. Where the effective incidence (burden) of tax would fall on implementation of something like "the Fair Tax" would depend on income and price responsiveness of demand and supply for the entire spectrum of goods and services 'retailed'.

     

    But, we agree that the current U.S. tax system in not working to our advantage, and not doing so across multiple dimensions.
    20 May 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Nothing ever gets implemented as proposed! At the outset the income tax was small and temporary. As a wiser man tan I said nothing comes closer to immortality than a temporary government program.
    20 May 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    rbf: Unless something has radically changed, durable goods (which would include things like cars, trucks, houses, etc.) would be taxed at sale when new, but not thereafter. The obvious impact on the sale of new items would doubtless do much to lift the value of "used" items... One positive aspect which might flow from this change would be the strong likelihood that durable goods would become more "durable", since the purchaser would insist on a long life in order to get the full benefit of the purchase. We can hope that this would tend to mitigate some of the worst abuses of a disposable culture.

     

    I believe that treatment for "land" could be an interesting study. For instance, I suspect that some more clever pols will, at some point after introduction of a federal Fair Tax, encounter problems with the local and State versions which will often follow (though of course they are not a requirement). The temptation to treat a change in zoning as somehow creating "new" land which can then be taxed once again will be overwhelming for some areas. Subdividing land parcels... probably the same sort of danger.

     

    Much as I have long supported the concept of a NRST to replace our moronic Federal income tax system, I have also privately believed that it can only succeed if first we toss out the Demican/Republicrat duo from power. The FairTax proposal has strong Libertarian props (though it contains elements taken from the Leftward end of the political spectrum as well), and would probably be most trustworthy if installed in tandem with a new Libertarian administration.

     

    LOL, and given the astronomical odds that will every happen, it truly is a desultory conversation on a level with things like the weather and the local college's softball team.
    20 May 2013, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    TB: Greetings. What I was saying is that a used car being sold at a dealership would be taxed. One being purchased from a private owner would not be taxed. The sale of real estate from a private party to a private party with owner finance would not be taxed. The same deal through a commercial bank and a realtor would be taxed. That being said the chances of anything resembling a fair tax passing is nearly zero.
    21 May 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    In Q1 Soros increased his position in GDX by 74%. It is now his 15 largest position. He further decreased GLD but only by 10% 69k shares, he still holds ~550k, it is his 20 largest holding.

     

    Paulson Sold ABX but then bought calls. He also increased his position in Anglo Gold Ashanti -- it is his 4th largest holding and he opened a new position with calls. Left unchanged his GLD position.

     

    Greenlight/Einhorn left his ABX unchanged ranked 23rd in his portfolio and his GDX position ranked 10th was left unchanged.

     

    This was all done in the first quarter before the massive smackdown on April 15th. I was curious if I would see any bearish bias in their position changes in gold or gold miners in the first quarter.

     

    edit: one last thing, Stanley Drunkenmiller opened up a massive 1,800,000 share position in GLD calls making up 20% of his portfolio allocation. Hat tip to John Vincent for that one. http://bit.ly/144Pl8w
    15 May 2013, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5179) | Send Message
     
    IRS shared confidential information on conservative groups with George Soros sponsored group Pro Publica. It took awhile for the truth to come out! DG told us about the scrutiny conservative groups had to undergo when it happened.He's a few years ahead of the reporters.
    http://bit.ly/YKEhw8
    15 May 2013, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    I was tuned in on the copper colander special channel. I gave up years ago of accusing folks of having tin foil hats when I realized so many things they preached about were......well occurring. Like the man behind the curtain that I used to think was a joke. Now I realize how silly they must have thought I was.(head down and shamefully going to bed) I should have believed them but it seemed so preposterous, I guess I was living the life of a fool..

     

    http://bit.ly/106cV4I
    16 May 2013, 02:10 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    A Seeking alpha article about the cost of gold production to the miners and the supply shortage that could happen if prices stay low.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    16 May 2013, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    Forgot to add the disclaimer. Now that I have commented on gold expect the price to collapse.
    16 May 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    DG-
    Thanks for the link(s).
    It's clear that a lot of more cost-to-produce miners will stop digging, at least for gold as the primary product. What I can't figure is why the price has not solidified with all the demand for the stuff, or is that simply civilian demand and not heavy enough to move the price?

     

    Or, is there just simply more supply that can be absorbed?

     

    WT
    16 May 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    There is more paper than can be absorbed but there is no gold backing that paper. Paper settlements where one party wants delivery will soon be in paper (fiat). More so than now I would assume because if production is down and demand is up.....surely this will fix the problem. /s

     

    But it hasn't. We are not in a normal market, everything you ever knew about markets is now off the table. I feel like Alice.

     

    http://bit.ly/12dYfyr
    16 May 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    If you pay attention to those lyrics you will see a curve in there. Even the manipulation is manipulated. Strings within strings within strings.
    16 May 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5179) | Send Message
     
    speaking of paper:

     

    http://bit.ly/12FhWjc
    16 May 2013, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3359) | Send Message
     
    Hi OG,
    Are they showing Johnnie Carson reruns in South America? ;-)
    http://bit.ly/17C0i5C
    16 May 2013, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2689) | Send Message
     
    DG, I recall some of the BigBoyz were heavily selling gold just before the drop. Some actually shouted out to sell gold.

     

    And it fell. Maybe more then they planned. But my iridium helmet whispers that was the point. If the Boyz start slowly buying back or buying options on gold, they will be is fine shape if it surges up on some yet unknown bad inflation or similar news. Possibly miners pulling back?

     

    Real estate not keeping it's value? Buy gold! MLPs falling? Buy GOLD! etc. etc.

     

    I have no doubt that someone(s) are yanking the gold market around. I suppose silver is falling in sympathy. Or not ;-)
    16 May 2013, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm..... Maybe they could recycle it?
    17 May 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    They said they dont have food so why do they need toilet paper. /s
    17 May 2013, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    Get the bounty tough brand and run it through the washer. /s
    17 May 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    Recycling is good for the environment!
    20 May 2013, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5179) | Send Message
     
    Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen, CFA, and Michelle Gibley, CFA note in their Schwab Market Perspective, Japan is the relative bright spot globally and while the focus has been on the effect of the BoJ actions on the yen, we may be entering a second phase for stocks, driven by benefits for the real economy and corporate profits. Read more at http://bit.ly/10ZYURy.
    16 May 2013, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    OG my only fear is the devaluation of the yen eating into my prophets while that same devaluation is creating the prophets for the stocks.. I am not sure which parish will keep me from parishing.

     

    Sorry it must be the bee stings and medicaments still effecting me.
    16 May 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    DG-

     

    No matter what- NO MORE RUM!
    16 May 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the link, OG-

     

    Looks to me like the Land of the Rising Sun may be one of the better plays out there. They saw that our BB program didn't have any negative effect on stocks so I think theirs is an attractive market as well, as long as their "elephant in the room" neighbor doesn't get too bothersome.

     

    I do believe that posturing will quiet down. No reason that I can see for escalation.

     

    WT
    16 May 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    WT, I'll save that for Honduras. Next batch of bees I will use irish whisky for medicament depending upon the number of stings I receive, I am guessing it will require a shot per sting. If anyone sees me with my hand in the hive its just an adjustment of the frames not a invitation for more stings. Honest.....
    17 May 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    DG_

     

    SLAINTE!
    17 May 2013, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    Slainte mhaith.

     

    May you have the hindsight to know where you've been,
    the foresight to know where you're going
    and the insight to know when you're going too far.

     

    I am still working on that last one.
    17 May 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    D.G.: Give it the bees instead and you might not need it - drink for pleasure only. Of course, there's the possibility the bees are "a mean drunk", in which case, forget that idea.

     

    HardToLove
    17 May 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I would hate getting drunk on the honey in the morning before work after putting the honey on my biscuits. Of course it might get me more repeat customers for the honey. Hmmmmmm now I will have to calculate the cost of Irish whisky into the sale price of honey.....nah I will skip the bees cuz as you said they might be mean drunks and I do not have to recalculate everything. LOL
    I think drunk bees and africanized is the same thing. Might really want to skip that idea.
    http://bit.ly/14xUTbe
    17 May 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Cramer's subject on Mad Money tonight will be about MLPs.

     

    Prediction: He's going to be pulling up a two year chart of KMP, which is up about 50%. If he mentions Sunoco Logistics, I'll freak out!

     

    Guessing the MLP sector is going to jump a tad tomorrow.

     

    Check out the spike in volume right after he mentioned the show's theme, in AMLP, an MLP ETF! WOW! Quick on the draw.

     

    http://yhoo.it/YMLr32;range=1d;compare=;ind...

     

    (hit the one day chart and then look at 2:21PM)
    16 May 2013, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Greetings all. Things are moving along with Fergus Hill I got our Brad Street and Dunn rating started and have a consultation with a tax rep next week. I took the Legal Zoom agent arrangement for $159 a year. It includes being able to use their legal team for $50 - $200 per billable hour. My broker is putting together an insurance package and I should have the numbers next week. I will take a look at local well capitalized banks after I finish with the tax consultant. Spawn is working on the logos now that the semester is over which we will trade mark when she is done. She will graduate in DEC a little later than the plan but still debt free with her Bachelors. She is the Chief marketing officer for Fergus Hill and will begin her operations in ernest after graduation. Our capitalization is up even though we haven't done anything except move private assets into the company. That is because the holding company component which currently contains only dividend paying equities is following the broader market up and reinvesting dividends LOL. Well gang that's it in a nut shell. I'll post when I get a chance. Thanks to all for your support.
    16 May 2013, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Great news, Bob. Congrats! And best of luck!
    16 May 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Go get it RBF! You'll do well and your "spawn" too!

     

    HardToLove
    16 May 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    Great, Bob- Do we get advance notice on the IPO?

     

    Windwood Trader
    16 May 2013, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    And first options to buy on the IPO.

     

    Congrats Bob.
    17 May 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5179) | Send Message
     
    The REE's bill is moving forward--like a herd of turtles~
    http://bit.ly/18Qtt3K

     

    Good luck Ferguson family on your new business!
    17 May 2013, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Due to a scotch tasting (yum!) event I attended last night over in south NJ, I had to DVR the Cramer episode, which I just completed watching (far better than the dreadful IRS-gate hearings).

     

    D-inv: You did pretty good! MWE Cramer mentioned as one of his MVPs of all "speculative" MLPs.

     

    Of course, Kinder Morgan Cramer was all gushy about, and the result of my overnight experimental KMP trade? Including commissions, I netted about $42.00. Which is just fine, considering how MLPs got pummeled yesterday afternoon.

     

    Would have netted a little more, but what do you do when you arrive home safely with my renowned cheffy pal after a scotch tasting? Ya drink a few more drams of Oban on the patio and bitch about Monsanto! And so I chose to sleep in this morning. Though maybe..."chose" isn't quite the right word.

     

    Other MLP MVP favs of Cramer were: EDP, and his other speculative plays were PAN, PAA, and WPZ.

     

    OyGee: Nope, never trade an MLP in an IRA, but thanks for the warning anyway. Though Kayne Anderson Total Return Fund (KYE) is a way to play MLPs...No K-1, but a simple 1099 filing. Has done pretty well for me. Bought it back in January at $25.94; now at $31 and change.

     

    ####

     

    A scotch-infused theory from last night: If you are forced to file late because some MLP didn't get you their tax sh$t until after April 15th, which has happened to me in each of the past two years, you're less likely to get audited, because the folks who work for the IRS simply do not want to deal with the complicated tax ramifications involving MLPs.

     

    Time for a nap!
    17 May 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    Just a taste huh, couldn't work in just a wee bit more of it?

     

    Maya, something seems just a wee bit suspicious to me. LOL

     

    I hope your only planning on tasting in Honduras too, more for me then for when I am working with the bees. Medicinal purposes only of course.

     

    A picture of our shot glasses for the trip, mine is on the right.

     

    http://bit.ly/13tJwyN
    17 May 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    For you, doubleshotguns:

     

    http://bit.ly/12HIald
    17 May 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    mmmmmmm....thirsty.
    18 May 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5179) | Send Message
     
    This one is for WT: What's happening to gold in Asian markets~
    http://bit.ly/10yB3wD
    17 May 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    OG-
    Thanks-

     

    This piece from that article says a lot:

     

    "Honestly, we don't have enough physical gold to supply to the Chinese. I just heard one Hong Kong party is quoting premiums at $6. This is mad," said a dealer in Singapore.

     

    Gold was little changed at $1,392.21 an ounce after falling for a fifth straight session on Wednesday, its longest daily losing streak since January 2011, lifting premiums in Singapore to $3.50 an ounce."

     

    Interesting in that a sponsored ad right next to the article quoted US Gold at $1,364, down 1.6%.

     

    Hey-
    Anybody interested in getting a wad of US Gold over to China? Lets see, $1392 minus 1364= $28 per oz spread. If we put 3 or four tonnes (2200 pounds) together we could make a few bucks.
    Do you think Bejing would mind?

     

    WT
    17 May 2013, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    I am guessing JPM would be the hurdle we would have to overcome. See the gold heist in Florida......Hmmmmm I think Springer and OG live down... in... that.... area.....hey....oops, I'll shut up now.

     

    http://bit.ly/14xVYQt
    17 May 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    Methinks I would rather deal w/ Bejing than JPM and the financial mafia.
    20 May 2013, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (960) | Send Message
     
    Dan Norcini's thoughts on what's happening with gold make sense to me - that funds have been dumping everything gold and silver related to put money into the ever-surging stocks.

     

    http://bit.ly/U2BNVX
    17 May 2013, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5179) | Send Message
     
    Motley Fool criticizes SA:
    http://bit.ly/13za4Sx
    17 May 2013, 11:54 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    Someone did not do their DD. Had no, nada, zilch, nothing for revenue. Woops!!!
    18 May 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5179) | Send Message
     
    Maya- in the MLP space, what do you think about CQP?
    19 May 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    OG: I've heard of Chaniere Energy Partners before, but have never owned it. CQP is not being covered by Wells (curious?). Technically, it's trading at a two year high, and so CQP "could" be experiencing a break out higher, or, it could pull back to around $26, which is support. YTD gains of around 60%, and being up more than 100% since last Thanksgiving, states this is one hot and frothy MLP, still retaining a 6% yield.

     

    Love the future % increase expected in EBITDA, and the widening gap of LNG pricing between the US and Japan, which forecasts continued increasing exports to DGs favorite country.

     

    Thanks for the tip. Hoping you've own CQP and have enjoyed an amazing six month ride. Great find! Putting CQP on my watch list.

     

    Here is a good article on CQP:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    growth for CQPs
    20 May 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    Ron Hiram is a prolific poster on Alpha specializing on MLP's clean cash flow to distribution analysis. My long time long in $EPD is as a result of following his ongoing analysis of MLPs. I have not been disappointed.

     

    His website is a concentration of probably most of his Alpha postings.

     

    http://bit.ly/11P1x0b

     

    Windwood Trader
    19 May 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    "The Obama Administration's Natural Gas Policy Is Tragically Misguided" by Chris Martenson.

     

    http://bit.ly/YTdxKd

     

    "In order to export LNG, it takes energy to simply turn that energy into a liquid. How much? Roughly 25%".

     

    "If we add up all of the proposed projects, including an equal number not on the above list, we discover that their collective export capacity is just a hair under 30 billion cubic feet per day, or a whopping 43% of current U.S. production".

     

    HardToLove
    19 May 2013, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    The operative phrase in those quotes is "proposed projects". In this sort of environment, where government makes it clear they are open to funding requests, the projects spring out of every crook and granny...

     

    Before we get alarmed at the prospect of creating NG shortages due to shipping half our supply elsewhere, it might be wise to remember that most of the proposals will die, and many of the few survivors will be merged together or greatly downsized. This is particularly likely since many of them involve novel or experimental technology, and will (if implemented at all) be preceded by a lengthy series of R&D experiments and small pilot plants. Those that are most likely to actually get the nod medium term will be the ones based upon existing, commercialized technology. If doing an analysis of this topic, I would start with the list of proposed projects, (and see if the author can back up his claim that there is another list which is at least as large and known to him as real, but he somehow didn't feel like including that data in his article).

     

    I have invested in NG years ago, but have been out of it over the past few years (essentially since the advent of the new drilling tech and the subsequent drop in pricing). I believe the LNG "threat" is something to track, but not yet present in the scale needed to dramatically alter the NG landscape in the US.

     

    I believe the political dimension (NIMBY movements, predatory tax schemes, and the opening salvos in the usual protection racket interaction between a successful industry and corrupt politicians) is just starting to settle out, and is much more likely to impact production than LNG shipping infrastructure (still largely absent in the US).
    20 May 2013, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2689) | Send Message
     
    Re: LNG exports.

     

    Also remember that Australia, among other places, has rather large existing LNG export facilities. My prediction is for a drop in LNG prices because of lower worldwide economic activity, with the results that the margins of existing LNG producers will be squeezed. That would make building new plants in the US much less attractive.

     

    An exception might be a plant on the west coast, possibly in Canada, to supply Japan. But the way the Yen is dropping WRT the dollar, the numbers might not work at a price the Japanese can afford to pay.

     

    An aside.

     

    The Japanese need to build submersable reactors with passive emergency cooling. Easy if you have an ocean to dump heat into.
    Park them 20 miles offshore and ship the power to shore over superconducting DC lines for distribution. An entire new industry could be created. Or crack water into H2 and ship that to shore. H2 is a good gas turbine fuel.
    20 May 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    "The Japanese need to build submersable reactors with passive emergency cooling. Easy if you have an ocean to dump heat into."

     

    :-) Apoplexy time for anti-nuclear catastrophic anthropogenic global warming alarmists.
    20 May 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    The Japanese are looking at frozen methane for themselves. They have a ton of it off the coast if they have not irradiated it already. The search is on for more.

     

    http://bit.ly/191oOfp
    21 May 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    How much radiation in the fish in the pacific.

     

    http://bit.ly/12rGlbE
    21 May 2013, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (3138) | Send Message
     
    DG
    "The Japanese are looking at frozen methane for themselves. They have a ton of it off the coast if they have not irradiated it already. The search is on for more. "

     

    There's is a map of known and inferred deposits on this page.
    http://bit.ly/1a25UTn

     

    Japan's trade ministry said the production tests will continue for about two weeks, followed by analysis on how much gas was produced.

     

    It is hoped that they can achieve commercial production within six years.

     

    Here's a 2 year test (over halfway through) Chevron is doing in the arctic permafrost.
    http://bit.ly/13ITFLn

     

    They pump in CO2 and the ice trades it for NG.

     

    Something I read years ago said the US had the largest deposits of methane hydrates.
    21 May 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    ISTM the question just might be, When do impeachment proceedings begin?

     

    http://bit.ly/18YXQFj
    20 May 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Very well could be.
    20 May 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    Abe or Obama?
    20 May 2013, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Carefully crafted plausible deniability.

     

    Someone else will take the fall. Probably White House Chief Counsel.

     

    http://bit.ly/163FvZ2
    20 May 2013, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    SM-
    I believe that you have discerned the solution-
    Also possible, Chief o Staff-
    Some things never change but are usually hard to predict. Political cannon fodder, I suppose.

     

    WT
    20 May 2013, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    Has the price of gold bottomed and uptrend begun?
    20 May 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv-
    I believe you would have to ask Mr. Dimon or Mr Blankfein if they were done with the manipulations.
    20 May 2013, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: I don't believe gold has bottomed.

     

    "Gold ETFs Are Liquidating By the Ton."

     

    300 tons so far, with no end in sight:

     

    http://yhoo.it/YX2Ztn
    21 May 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    "I don't believe gold has bottomed. "

     

    :-) So I was much too early (again) picking up SAND at $7.04 and would be again at $6.80?
    21 May 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: I have no idea if you caught the falling barbaric cutlery. Okay...that's a little overwritten. TB and I yacked on the phone a week ago or so, and we both thought gold was heading further south.

     

    But then, three weeks ago or so, TB and I were PM-ing, and we agreed that SAND under $7.00 was a steal. It was...back then.

     

    But as the world turns, and even though there's an ever widening gap between spot and the retail price, to see ETFs recently unloading 600,000 pounds of gold, a trend "with no end in sight," to see equities rise, and the VIX stay steady, to see monies pouring out of PMs and into equities, to see this also as a trend with no end in sight, I can see gold plunging to 1150, as was written about a two weeks ago.

     

    The PM game is morphing. Barrick is cutting back; many miners are getting close to all-in costs, which means lower production, or more production from higher yielding sites, and the ceasing of operations of lower yielding, more expensive to produce gold sites. Looks like the massive NovaGold find is never going to get to pouring stage.

     

    For these reasons, eventually, I expect gold to rocket upward again. Just not right away. Perhaps it will be two or three years before gold gets back to $1900/oz.

     

    Previously, I had thought DOW 16,000 by then end of this year was feasible. Now I think it's a shoe-in to occur, with DOW 17,000 now becoming plausible to consider by year end.

     

    SAND has support at $6.34, but I'm more and more targeting support at $6.00, maybe even down to $5.00.

     

    One man's opinion....
    21 May 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for sharing the view, Maya.
    21 May 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    M2-
    Increased at an annual rate of 4.04 for the thirteen weeks ended 6 May, 2013.

     

    It is getting lower.

     

    WT
    20 May 2013, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    Interesting article by Eric Parnell regarding a 'Double-Top-Bubble' in
    Gold SHORTS.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    WT
    21 May 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    DJIA on track for 19 consecutive Tuesday closes up - YTD buy Tue open and sell at close would yield 11%.

     

    Per CNBC - I'm sure video available later.

     

    http://bit.ly/119yJYQ

     

    Long version.

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    >HTL-

     

    Does your system work conversely for Wednesdays? You might have something there if it does. {;-}

     

    WT
    22 May 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): Columbian center for infrastructure goes completely off-grid. Local utility didn't want to give permits for inter-connect, so they went stand-alone.

     

    Natural Gas Turbine | Trigeneration | Turbine Generator

     

    http://bit.ly/12V8DeY

     

    HardToLove
    22 May 2013, 05:40 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    >HTL

     

    Very impressive vid. Should get others at least thinking about a stand alone system.
    22 May 2013, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    WWT: Ideally, you want to be integrated because you can lower costs by both curtailment of usage participation (lowering rate as a participant) and can generate some offsetting revenues by selling excess capacity back to the grid.

     

    Why the permits were denied I can only speculate. If the concern was competition, the utility hurt their case with this move IMO. Both because others will see they don't need the utility and the utility will be seen as a self-serving anti-progress entity needing restructuring to adapt to both the needs of the locale and get on board with technology changes.

     

    They shot themselves in the foot, I'm pretty sure.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    22 May 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    >HTL-

     

    Yup-
    Cooking your own and selling into the grid has mixed reactions where I am. The utility formula removes a lot of incentive to do the infrastructure. Windmills are popular now in this area but primarily commercial- The $3 million per variety. Farmers get paid up to $8K per year per unit. Moratorium right now on new stuff.

     

    In another life I did gas turbine installs but they were primarily for remote areas- Resorts, camps, lumber mills and posh residences. These were primarily my thoughts for my comment.

     

    WT
    22 May 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    Sold:
    $BX, $GNTX, They may have more but I've gotten a very good run.

     

    Bought:
    $TUR, $EPB, $EPHE

     

    Added to: $SJC, $EPD

     

    WT
    22 May 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    If you use parentheses instead of $$, SA should create hyperlinks automatically.
    >>
    Sold:
    (BX), (GNTX), They may have more but I've gotten a very good run.

     

    Bought:
    (TUR), (EPB)....
    <<
    What is your thesis for Turkey (TUR)?
    22 May 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    >SM-
    Thanks for the tip on symbols- I was wondering how that was done.

     

    Re: (TUR)
    They are apparently a very stable country with little negative activity and a strong growing economy. Their banks are probably more sound than ours- I know, that's not saying much but from what I can find are a good core to their economy. They just put in a rate cut as well. The ETF is heavily financial.

     

    They have settled their conflicts with Israel and are still considered a European country- at the juncture of Asia. Growth should pick up with the cut in rates. Low unemployment and an improving trade deficit also make Turkey attractive.

     

    Windwood Trader
    22 May 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): I called, on another board, for a move up today, possibly the beginning of the (customary?) run up into quarterly reporting. Over $1 wouldn't surprise me, although there's quite a few possible resistance points along the way for profit-takers to key on.

     

    But two consecutive days of good volume on moves up suggests there *may* be some legs.

     

    ATM +7.78% and up ~10% over two days now.

     

    I picked a price point earlier and loaded up with 14K shares all at $0.86 over the last couple of weeks while the pps was vacillating around that price.

     

    Be aware of the nasty, still, short interest and my TFH theory that the shorters get aid in driving price down to allow shorts to cover.

     

    But, volume these two days are both over double the 10-day average, so the folks that try to hold price down may be getting overwhelmed.

     

    HardToLove
    22 May 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    I've been speculating to myself that CPST's upward movement the past few days might be anticipation of quarterly reporting. Today, though, I think it was aided by a "worth a look mention" in a Zack's upgrade announcement re-AOSmith Corp.
    "AO Smith Corp. is a $3.7 billion industrial electrical equipment maker. Other stocks that are worth a look in the industry are ABB Ltd. (ABB), Capstone Turbine Corp. (CPST) and Emerson Electric Co. (EMR)."
    22 May 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: "I know nutting!" (Schultzy).

     

    I posted my call at 06:34 this A.M. based on last evening's peeks at stuff.

     

    http://bit.ly/19507ig

     

    HardToLove
    22 May 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Hold onto your top hats, folks. Looking like the 3% or so correction "may" be upon us. Sold LINE in the gamer account.

     

    Watch all the topping tails cycle through this web site:

     

    http://bit.ly/10lwPsA
    22 May 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps I should have added that when stocks in a broad array of sectors show topping tails, this portends a possible market top, or correction.

     

    Looking at (SPY), which is a Spider ETF that tracks the S & P 500 (closed today at $165.93), we could see as much as a 6% correction beyond today's drop, before support sets in at around $154.

     

    Anybody else seeing what I'm seeing?
    22 May 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    My model signaled correction a week ago... and yes, corrections can happen during QE. What you are seeing now is a setup. I am still working on the Insta... I got another big project in and once its done, I can go back to work on it.
    22 May 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    >Maya-

     

    I do. I bought SPX 1580 Puts a week ago, thinking that the support will be at 1520 or so.

     

    I also have QQQ Puts at 70 looking for 68 to 65.

     

    They were both up around 12% today- I'm underwater around 20% after today on both. Three more days like today and I'm a happy camper.

     

    Windwood Trader
    22 May 2013, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    If what I'm seeing, hearing, reading, WT, you may indeed be that happy camper.

     

    My mission tonight after watching the Pens/Senators game is to pick an ETF with which to short the market.
    22 May 2013, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    >Maya-
    I also have some (SQQQ) that's a much leveraged PUT on the 'daq.

     

    Worth a look IMHO.

     

    Have fun!

     

    Windwood Trader
    22 May 2013, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    In the great state of Washington, pigs that were fed pot leavings were 20 to 30 pounds heavier at slaughter as compared to other pigs from the same litter. A butcher stated, ""Some say the meat seems to taste more savory."

     

    http://yhoo.it/10ncpMn
    22 May 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Maya: I think the swine got a bad case of the "munchies'!

     

    HardToLove
    22 May 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Maybe eventually, there will be a new meaning to the term, "grass fed beef."
    22 May 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    I'll bet they don't get "Swine Flu!"
    22 May 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    WWT: If they did, they probably wouldn't know it.

     

    http://bit.ly/12vB8Q4

     

    HardToLove
    22 May 2013, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    >HTL-

     

    Whew! Talk about a bad trip! Bizarre.

     

    WT
    22 May 2013, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    I am curious who thought to feed that to the pigs. Was there a particular reason like were the cops knocking at the front door.
    22 May 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    Wonder if PETA will approve.
    22 May 2013, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Pot-Eating Tasty Animals?

     

    Love that Bacon Buzz!
    22 May 2013, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    D.G: I'd be more concerned about if the PITA would approve - guess who that is!

     

    HardToLove
    23 May 2013, 05:49 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9556) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I would quess they are the "Pain In The A$$" was that a good enough guess.
    23 May 2013, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    D.G: The acronym was correct, but *who*? Thinking of Obamacare and the same folks will be "enforcing" that as currently enforce tax regs, more rigorously against some segments of our society ...

     

    HardToLove
    24 May 2013, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    Are you implying that we may soon expect mandatory colonoscopies at the local IRS office?
    24 May 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    >DG-
    Keep it up and the IRS will be looking into Seeking Alpha!
    22 May 2013, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): I hadn't realized that Capstone had anybody in the superyacht space.

     

    http://bit.ly/13NeqWx

     

    HardToLove
    23 May 2013, 06:37 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    News must be out- (CPST) at $1.00 10:10 EST
    24 May 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    WWT: This is the start of customary run up into the quarterly report I mentioned. "There Will Be Waves".

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: Aided, I think, by an optimistic sentiment ATM.
    24 May 2013, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Well, since no one else seems interested enough to mention it... The Nikkei dropped over 1,100... It's currently down 7.3%.

     

    I wonder if those pigs are available for sale....
    23 May 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    NOT a coincidence with the BOJ problems and the yen prospects...

     

    Also no coincidence: http://yhoo.it/10r3LfU
    23 May 2013, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    From 5/17, "American Industry Collapsing Into Q2"

     

    I think one of the more notable facts include "Summarizing, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey General Business Conditions Index fell into contraction territory in May, falling to an index mark of negative 1.43, from +3.05 the month before. Like the national Industrial Production data, this result also fooled economists who saw the index improving slightly this month to 3.75".

     

    There's lots of facts, using standard data, supporting this author's assertion.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    23 May 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    This is a Pew research piece indicating that emerging markets are faring better than developed ones.

     

    It may give you all some ideas about moving further beyond the borders for investing once the mayhem subsides a bit. The study although somewhat subjective does shed some light on developing (frontier?) countries as well. I personally think that's where it's at.

     

    http://bit.ly/10V9VI6

     

    Windwood Trader
    23 May 2013, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    >HTL-

     

    PM for you-
    24 May 2013, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    The stop-loss orders from that mini-flash crash on American Electric and Nextera energy will remain but the data will be wiped-out.

     

    "The only one getting hurt is the somebody who had stop-orders in, a little old lady in Iowa who owns maybe 300 shares,” said Paul Asmar, former NYSE floor specialist at Spear, Leeds, & Kellogg LP, now a unit of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS -0.07% (GS). Mr. Asmar, 52, of Basking Ridge, N.J., said he used to make markets in Florida Power & Light. The company changed its name to NextEra in 2009.

     

    “People with sell-stop orders are going to go home, see they sold stock for around $45, and then check the range of the day” only to find that the official numbers don’t display prices that low, he said. “They’re going to call their broker because they have no idea what’s going on.”

     

    http://on.wsj.com/1afveoZ
    24 May 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3359) | Send Message
     
    Hi Jak,
    Thanks for the link. If they don't get a handle on the HFT computers, the HFTs will continue to fleece retail investors by creating these flash crashes. The SEC should force the NYSE to undo those transactions if they are clearing the tapes, so the retail investors aren't hurt. The comments by that guy only emphasize why there is a growing distrust of the market and the people (and machines) that run it. No honor, ethics or basic legal restrictions to keep them honest. Grrrr
    24 May 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    JAK: When I heard that yesterday on CNBC, I gagged in disgust.

     

    HardToLove
    24 May 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    That's the common theme. It's not a problem cuz no one important was affected. Disgusting indeed!
    24 May 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    What happened to the market-makers? They are supposed to control the aberrations in pricing so the catastrophic sale doesn't take place. I may be answering my own question but maybe the market-makers disappeared with the advent of HFT?

     

    It's been a long time since I was a "customer's man" at a brokerage desk back in the day when a DJ volume over 15 million caught the WSJ front page.

     

    WT
    25 May 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    WWT: From what I've seen on the news channels, the HFTs cause many "micro-flash crashes" each day. The culprit seems to be part of the defensive mechanisms: when prices go out of hand (excessive spreads or price moves?) they withdraw from the market, eliminating most of the liquidity. Since many of them have algorithms geared to arbitrage of the bid/ask, they apparently can't operate profitability when the environment changes as described.

     

    Also from the news channels, the circuit-breakers don't operate in the first 15 minutes of the market. That's supposed to change in August(?).

     

    HardToLove
    25 May 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    >HTL-

     

    Thanks for that info.

     

    Seems to me the SEC ought to be stopping that nonsense right now, from opening bell to closing bell.

     

    Having that window until August is simply a challenge for engagement to the manipulators.

     

    WT
    25 May 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    >Tripleblack-

     

    In a prior post you reasoned that there would be sector shifting for leadership rather than outright capitulation, if memory serves-
    I came across this article recently that rather follows your thoughts to a T-
    There you go- Ahead of the curve again!

     

    http://bit.ly/13Unmpy

     

    Windwood Trader
    25 May 2013, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): "Capstone Receives Major Order for Global Real Estate Development and Investment Firm"

     

    http://bit.ly/11mDjTC

     

    HardToLove
    28 May 2013, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    >HTL-

     

    Re:(CPST)

     

    "There Will Be Waves", you said-

     

    You didn't say there would be tidal waves!

     

    Up 14% at 10:45 EST
    28 May 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    WWT: Yes, news can do that! :-))

     

    Generally, with the high short-interest, news like this will cause a "sell on the news" reaction into strengthening price. The pop should hold three or four days, and then the waves will come back in.

     

    Long-term, this NYC news is *extremely* positive because of who the buyer is and the fact that NYC has a big energy-efficiency improvement program for their buildings under way. It's the first large player in commercial buildings that has come along to support what went on at the universities (Columbia, IIRC). This will incentivize other building owners, of course.

     

    Short-term, MMs and shorters will try to move price lower to allow covering buys and take their profit. They might have gotten bushwhacked as Northland securities re-starts coverage with an "outperform" rating this A.M. If Institutionals and retail both respond, the volume and buying pressure might put those folks trying to cover in a difficult position.

     

    It'll be a few days before we can make a reasonable guess about the ensuing near-term behavior. If some of the serious bears are still seriously bearish, they might hammer on the stock.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    28 May 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2689) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Does the price topping 1$ have any technical effect?
    28 May 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    SHB: It broke above a very long-term descending resistance Thursday. That may carry more weight than $1. However, $1, and many "round numbers" are "psychological" points that are recognized as potential resistance and support. So it does have effect.

     

    Another thing to keep in mind is that we did a gap open up and "gaps like to be filled". If bullish price action begins to wane, the tendency will be to re-trace and fill the gap, the bottom of which is $1.03. There's likely an "overshoot" and that's when the $1 should come into play.

     

    On another front, if pps stays above $1, the possibility of de-listing from the NASDAQ is removed after 10 days at that price or above.

     

    That may be the strongest psychological level on normal investors.

     

    Another effect might be on the shorters, who've been gently easing out of their short positions, generally, since last June. If the bullish action is sustained, there's the possibility of a short squeeze. Moving above $1 should have those folks taking a hard look, especially with news of this type and already one "outperform" call and more sure to follow now.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    28 May 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    :-) I probably jinxed any chance the "gap open up" will re-trace by taking a 30% profit @ $1.15 with expectation of re-entering in several days on a re-trace.
    28 May 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: I think you'll get a shot at it - MMs may need to cover if they were selling a lot that didn't have sell orders from longs backing them. If most of the sells were backed and the MMs see price weakness, they'll help move price lower to cover their short positions at a nice profit and have, effectively, lower-priced shares in their portfolio that they can sell for more profit.

     

    Either way, there should be some at least small re-trace and when that starts the mo-mo traders will likely get their stops triggered, flushing price a bit. Any shorters trying to cover will want to help push price lower with small pecking at the bids too.

     

    MHO, in (only partial, hopefully) ignorance,
    HardToLove
    28 May 2013, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    Hope it plays out as you read it, HTL. With those sales into the commercial building market(s) on top of oil&gas, prospects for CPST are definitely looking positive.
    28 May 2013, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Hot off the press! A Freya fav newbie refiner (CVRR), is going ex-dividend on June 3. Shareholders of record by June 3 close, will receive a dividend payment of $6.50/share.

     

    Stock closed today up 26 cents at $30.62, and was down two cents on AH trading. We're talking a special lump payment of over 20%!

     

    More detail here:

     

    http://bit.ly/11nFbvk
    28 May 2013, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    SA contributor, Cliff Watchtel, also caught the curiosity of CVRR seeing near zero AH trading, and posted such in Stock Talks. If CVRR doesn't open up approaching $6.50 tomorrow, there may be a solid short term trade afoot.

     

    I'm considering buying a 1000 shares tomorrow at the open.
    28 May 2013, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Scratch the above (?). More research shows that it is CVR Partners (CVI), who owns a majority interest in CVRR...it is the shareholders of the parent company (CVI) that will be receiving this huge dividend.

     

    CVI was up today 3.65% today, and another 1.73% in AH trading.

     

    Gotta double check everything! Off to advise Cliff that his Stock Talk is perhaps incorrect.

     

    28 May 2013, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    Pimco on EZ alternatives.

     

    http://bit.ly/13XHbzQ

     

    Windwood Trader
    28 May 2013, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): haudson Yards Brochure about it sustainability and energy use, Two things I like is the >= 1MW on-site generation and efficient elevator motors that do regenerative braking, requiring some storage.

     

    http://bit.ly/11a3wJn

     

    On another front, (CPST) traded 18.53MM shares yesterday, ~6.13% of float! Apparently the news yesterday was as important as we thought.

     

    HardToLove
    29 May 2013, 07:04 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    DOW 28,000 by 2019? Sounds crazy doesn't it?

     

    Is this coming from some way out of whack bull hack?

     

    Nope.

     

    None other than the esteemed CEO of BlackRock, Larry Fink, uttered a plausible high end math scenario that possibly takes the DOW to 28,000 by 2019 on Squawk Box this morning:

     

    http://yhoo.it/17ttxZf
    29 May 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5179) | Send Message
     
    If one considers that it costs more US Dollars to buy the Dow, it makes sense that the Dow can rise exponentially as the value of a dollar declines. (That has been one of Peter Schiff's consistent observation for years.)Here is a chart from Zero Hedge (unfortunately it ends in 2009) evidencing the decline in the US Dollar. It's quite a long view of the US Dollar's declining value. It's shocking, isn't it?
    http://bit.ly/wWA9eH
    29 May 2013, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4071) | Send Message
     
    >MAYA- Thanks-

     

    I read the article and I'm thinking he's starting to believe his own bushwa, or maybe he's trying on one of those self-fulfilling prophesies, or maybe whistling in the wind past the graveyard, however-

     

    Without splitting years figure the Dow was around 7000 at the nadir of the collapse. 5 plus years later it is at 15000, an increase of 8000 points in five years or a compound growth rate of about 17%. If that same rate of growth continues for the next 5 plus years the Dow would be around 33,000. Exponential expansion at work.

     

    He may be conservative in his thinking-

     

    Windwood Trader
    29 May 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    DiMicco, head of Nucor, talking on Cramer about the destruction caused by export of up to 40% of our NG. He says 10%-15% is OK. But keeping most of it here creates 8 times the number jobs that exporting LNG does.

     

    HardToLove
    29 May 2013, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... So now you can count on Wall Street to push for exports of 60-80% of NatGas production. We all know it's too expensive to employ Americans.
    29 May 2013, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (960) | Send Message
     
    You left out the part where they grease our politicians
    29 May 2013, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >jpau ... Politicians are owned not employed, but that is our fault.
    29 May 2013, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): "Capstone Turbine Receives Order for Hybrid UPS for Green Data Center Owned by Nation's Largest Natural Gas Distribution Utility"

     

    "... Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas), the nation's largest natural-gas distribution utility".

     

    "... easily integrate with an absorption chiller to create a combined cooling, heating, and power (CCHP) system that provides IT-grade power (eight 9's reliability), facility heat, and chilled water for space cooling".

     

    http://bit.ly/18AUTK6

     

    HardToLove
    30 May 2013, 09:01 AM Reply Like