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  • QuickChat # 182, June 8, 2011 153 comments
    Jun 8, 2011 5:17 PM

    "Spaceport Atlanta"  Private space travel which should be (and yet might be).
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  • Author’s reply » New topic from the last QC:



    China's inflation is heating up, and they are using their banks to try to tamp it down. Higher reserve requirements and a likely interest rate hike. Hat tip to sarcasticprofessor for this one.
    8 Jun 2011, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • 'The Great Property Bubble of China May Be Popping '


    Has to happen sooner or later....and maybe it's sooner.



    (As usual, you can google the title of the article and click on the wsj hit for a free pass for the article.)
    8 Jun 2011, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • Jim Chanos has been warning about the China real estate bubble for a couple of years.
    8 Jun 2011, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • China had a major bailout sneak in. Don't know if anyone saw this but I thought it went well with the article above.

    8 Jun 2011, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Another story on China this morning on Zero Hedge


    (June 9, 20110) A Classic Technical Signal: China Breaks Down
    From: Zero Hedge, Submitted by Tyler Durden, by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds


    Since "the China Story" is the foundation of global growth, demand for commodities and ultimately, stock market profits, when China's stock market breaks down it behooves us to pay attention.


    Technical analysis offers a number of tools to help us chart the past and present and calibrate probabilities of what might happen in the future. Sometimes these technical tools provide very clear signals that investors choose to ignore at their own risk. One classic pattern is a flag or pennant (a.k.a. wedge pattern).


    Lower highs reflect a decline in Bullish enthusiasm and buying pressure, as every "buy the dip" fails to match the previous dip-buying.

A chart of the Shanghai Composite Index [measuring performance of the Chinese equity market ]shows a clear wedge pattern has formed.


    [A mini-death cross is also very close to forming. A mini-death cross occurs when the 50 day MA crosses the 100 day MA from the top. Add to this the observation that the 50 and 100 day MAs are very close to the current upper Bollinger. That means resistance at the upper Bollinger will be intensified].


    Since the Shanghai market tends to lead the U.S. and other global markets, a breakdown in China's market can be seen as a predictor of what lies ahead in the U.S. and other global stock markets.
    The question here is does the signal portend a mostly sideways moving market, or is it a tell for further negative movement?


    I looked to see if the Shanghai Composite Index moves with the on and off-set of QE. When QE1 ended, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 25%. When QE2 started again it increased by 23%...
    9 Jun 2011, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Bingo, Rat, you nailed it. And we can "infer" from objective evidence that the QE (which was not limited to the American Fed, lest we forget) has a lot to do with how these markets react.


    The EU, China, Japan and many other countries engaged in quantitative easing (of various kinds) and similar financial actions (currency moves, for instance) which overlapped the major QE undertaken here in the US.


    But the common thread continues to be the US QE effect.
    9 Jun 2011, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • LFB on Bullion.

    8 Jun 2011, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • I talked about the Chinese TARP program in the REE Concentrator (or was it the QE article?). Its amazing. Its as if our own government spent $2trillion bailing out the state governments with their bank debt, and nobody even mentioned it in the media.


    LOL, even the MSM in tank for Voldermort would not be so bold!
    8 Jun 2011, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Space Port America is located near Hatch NM. It should be a going concern in the next couple of years. I have some related bonds it's a Branson project.
    8 Jun 2011, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • The Egyptians haven't resumed nat gas delivery to the Israelis. They won't honor the existing contract. They want 2x the current contract rate. Approximately 40% of Israel's supply goes through Egypt.
    (This is the same nat gas line that was blown up over a month ago.)


    The Leviathan strike takes on more urgency.
    Noble Energy owns 39.66% of Leviathan, and Delek Group Ltd. (DLEKG.TV) units Avner Oil Exploration Ltd. Partnership (AVNR.L.TV) and Delek Drilling each own 22.67%. Ratio Oil Exploration Ltd. Partnership (RATI.L.TV)) owns 15%.


    Re: Noble Energy:
    8 Jun 2011, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Welcome back OG.


    Greetings all from grandmother's house (literally) in Florida. A few posts while dinner cooks and I'm supposed to be napping because I look tired...


    Jack Lifton will not write articles for SA anymore


    Phosphate article:


    Comment in phosphate article:
    "Mobile guru,


    Thank you for your kind comments. I originally submitted the article you cite to SA, but it was rejected because they said it involved companies with too small market caps, This is not the first time that SA has rejected an article by me, but it will be the last. I will now post on Resource Investor and on my web site, I will also be writing a weekly note for The Gold Report on "critical materials."


    Thanks again,
    Jack Lifton"
    8 Jun 2011, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • Yep. Can't blame him a bit. LOL, imagine trying to write an intelligible piece about the REE sector focusing solely on the companies listed on a major American exchange!


    MCP, REE, AVL, QRM and thats about it except for the sad REMX etf.


    Is this just snobbery (ie, no soldiers or small caps allowed), or just ignorance on SA's part? Perhaps both.
    8 Jun 2011, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • That stinks. Jack Lifton was the second person I began following here on SA, after John Petersen.
    9 Jun 2011, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • He just commented on this article in response to another commenter:



    Maybe we have lost an article writer, but gained a commenter.
    9 Jun 2011, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • Humala... I love ya...


    SCCO... a copper miner sporting a 7%+ yield... hmmm.... resistable? unlikely.


    Buying more ANMCF... no time to watch markets during the day, so just programmed in a bunch of staggered trades (.48, .43, .38., .33, .31, .29)... ANMCF has two community agreements pending and previously snafu'd (which the market didn't like for obvious reasons)... and now Humala's elected... insert panic here... meanwhile, the gold they have under ground is still waiting for them just the same...


    Owners of phosphate junior sponsored by Sprott SNRCF also seem to have a case of the Peru heeby jeebies...


    Selling GPL to fund some of these purchases... as I like the opportunities better for the moment.
    8 Jun 2011, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • Should be noted... AQSFF/AQL.TO is likely on its way to the 50-somethings... maybe even 40s. The line at 70 Canadian is badly broken - that's what I get for drawing a Maginot line (drip egg all over my face on this one).


    I'll be looking for more in the low 50s...


    Happy trading all... see you next time I take a nap...
    8 Jun 2011, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • Corn crop delays- tightest world supply since 1974:
    9 Jun 2011, 04:22 AM Reply Like
  • Ya' gotta love this: homeowner forcloses on BofA. Video included.


    Thanks to Econintersect for the link!



    9 Jun 2011, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Re-entering leveraged short on Financials (FAZ) I have a limit buy in this morning at 49.5. If that hits, I will follow up with another limit buy at 49.
    9 Jun 2011, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Second tranche of (FAZ) purchased at $49.
    9 Jun 2011, 12:32 PM Reply Like


    For those anticipating a period of "strengthening dollar" vs the other fiat currencies, this article should sound a note of caution.


    Higher interest rates in the ECB = stronger Euro and weaker dollar. Since the many lesser countries often follow the ECB lead, this would probably be a move emulated in Canada, Australia, the non-Euro European capitals, etc.


    How this will NOT drive down a weaker dollar is logic that escapes me.
    9 Jun 2011, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • OPEC is another topic on my mind this afternoon...


    Sure, they opted to leave production quotas alone this round, but given the geopolitical sitrep in North Africa and the Arab world in general, does this really mean anything?


    The battle lines are ideologically driven, and effectively divide OPEC into two warring halves.


    Given this reality, it is now my opinion that we will be seeing each bloc conducting very different policies in diametrically opposed directions. Russia will be playing the margins, their huge oil shipments easily giving them a seat at the oil exporter's table, despite their independent status. They are past masters at playing both ends against the middle, and they will do this with great effect.


    We stand at a key geopolitical inflection point, and I believe we are about to see chaos. I am still trying to get a handle on where I think these things will take us, but it is an astoundingly complex environment with a decision tree with a million branches. More later...
    9 Jun 2011, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • As Guns and I talked about two weeks ago while the Mississippi was flooding, along with the corn belt getting sopped, forcing late planting, or none at all, which has lead to the explosion in corn prices, I ponder what's that going to do to ethanol prices, and therefore gasoline prices.
    9 Jun 2011, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • I agree. As often happens, we are in for a period of high gas prices while oil prices moderate, much to the confusion of those who think what they put in their tank all came out of an oil well. About 10% of the mix is often ethanol in what is called "gasoline", with much higher percentages in official "ethanol products" of course.


    The hope for price moderation in this area lies in the fading political power of the corn belt states, who are greatly dominated by Republican representatives, and who will be, I believe, successful once again in continuing the flow of subsidies for corn squeezin's, despite overall calls for an end to corporate welfare. So we can look for expensive ethanol shielded from cheap imports (Brazil is champing at the bit to ship us some of their supply) and supported in two ways - direct payments to the producers operating in a shielded captive market, and price supports directly from the feds and the corn states to drop the price at the pumps (though this particular item will have by far the most influence on the price for E85 in the few places it is sold).


    Now that ethanol has bumped a long list of green carcinogens as the preferred major additive, its only going to get worse. (Note: Anyone wanting to read something surreal, look into the chequered history of many of the mandated fuel additives required to "lower emissions" which were subsequently found to be extremely powerful carcinogens, and replaced by ethanol in most current mixes).
    9 Jun 2011, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Stopped in for lunch. Lost my appetite.




    Trading halted until 2:45pm


    Property they own 60% of ownership in, after selling off some of it to Sinchao Metals... well, apparently they don't own it...SIHXF has got nothing but a lawsuit against ANMCF left in the tank:


    ANMCF still has 100% ownership of Invicta... a good thing... but market will not be evaluating that value today.


    Mining's a tough business...
    9 Jun 2011, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry about that, C. And Peru is looking like an iffy geopolitical play right now, too.
    9 Jun 2011, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Given how many earthquakes and volcanoes blowing their stacks on the left coast of S. America over the past two years, I'm hesitant to buy any Peruvian, Chilean, or Argentinean stocks for the foreseeable future.
    9 Jun 2011, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Shoot! Don't let things such as that spoil a good appetite or meal.


    Spoken by one who, by his actions and enthusiasm, justifies all the worlds culinary artists' hard work! :-))




    P.S. Hope it was no more than a "sponge bath" you took, if any.
    9 Jun 2011, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Bought EEV. If the volcanoes blow EEV will not and this goes along with the china and brazil slowdowns etc...
    10 Jun 2011, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Apologies for the all caps "DO NOT"... but saw a stock halted with negative news and reacted strongly. I can manage my losses, but I hate creating losses for anyone else.


    Anyway... ANMCF halted at .48... then finished the week at .55.


    Its interest in the Sinchao property - which apparently is now non-existent - was/is secondary to the company's value.


    I'm not selling ANMCF, but I've reversed field and am not buying more as there's other places to deploy risk.


    Market cap of ANMCF (via AAG.V on Yahoo) is currently 65 million. Main project remains Invicta.


    Quoting from Joe Mazumdar's research report of October 18, 2010, for Haywood Securities :


    "Our   Target   model   for   the   Invicta   project   returns   an   NPV@5%   value   of   US$296   million,   which   is   almost  three  times  their  current  market  capitalization  (~C$100  million).    We  modeled  sensitivities  to   various   physical   parameters   including   the   grade   of   the   principal   co-­‐products,   gold   and   copper,   mining  and  processing  costs,  a  2  quarter  start  up  delay  and  a  potential  escalation  of  the  capital  costs.     Other  significant  risks  and  opportunities  include  the  Surface  Land  Use  Agreement,  which  is  a  binary   decision,  however  could  delay  timing  as  well  which  we  have  accounted  for  with  a  two  quarter  delay   over   and   above   our   embedded   delayed   time   line   of   a   production   start   (July   2012).     A   significant   opportunity   is   an   increase   in   the   gold   recovery   through   a   carbon   in   pulp   (CIP)   circuit   which   would   increase  the  recovery  to  90%  from  our  estimate  of  about  80%  within  the  copper  concentrate  and  the   overall   recovery   would   increase   to   95%   from   about   85%,   this   is   discussed   in   more   detail   in   the   Investment  Thesis  section.  


    Applying  a  ten  percent  band  to  the  mining  (US$25.92  per  tonne,  Haywood  estimate)  and  processing   costs  (US$12.02  per  tonne,  Haywood  estimate),  we  find  that  the  project  is  more  sensitive  to  mining   costs  which  have  a  downside  risk  of  about  US$15  million  or  -­‐5%  in  value  based  on  an  NPV@5%.  Our   modeled   gold   grade   is   2.37   g/t,   our   downside   risk   of   a   drop   in   grade   to   2   g/t   translates   to   about   a   loss  of  US$11  million  in  value  or  <4%.    Our  modeled  copper  grade  is  about  0.49%,  our  downside  risk   of  a  drop  in  grade  to  0.40%  translates  to  a  loss  of  US$12  million  in  value  or  4%.  


    A   start   up   delay   of   two   quarters   translates   to   a   loss   of   US$7   million   based   on   an   NPV@5%   or   >2%.     The  project  is  least  sensitive  to  capital  expenditure  over  runs  as  a  20%  increase  in  our  development   capital  estimates  of  US$63  million  translates  to  a  drop  of  US$5  million  or  <2%. "
    11 Jun 2011, 07:08 AM Reply Like
  • (CLFD): Excellent article that I thought many might have an interest in.


    I'm putting this on my radar.



    9 Jun 2011, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): Axion Power to Present at the 38th Annual AeA Classic Financial Conference


    "... Thomas Granville, CEO will present... Tuesday, November 4 and Wednesday, November 5".


    "The 9 presentations will take place during Session 2 on the afternoon of November 4 and the morning of November 5".


    In San Diego, CA.



    9 Jun 2011, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Thomson Reuters has a new report on CPST updated today.


    If your platform provides access, take a look. If not PM me with your regular e-mail and I'll forward a copy, 10 page PDF, to you.


    Rating 4, 10=best. Two weeks ago was 5. 2/6/11 was 6.


    First call mean of 5 firms - strong buy.


    Long-term growth forecast = 32.5%.


    The earnings score, with 10=best, is 7.


    They also consider some factors, such as risk and fundamentals, which don't cast such a good light.


    9 Jun 2011, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • "(CPST): Thomson Reuters has a new report on CPST updated today. Rating 4, 10=best. Two weeks ago was 5. 2/6/11 was 6."


    I don't know about anyone else in here but that bit of information above seems to indicate the stock is less and less favorable as time has gone on since February 6th and down even from two weeks ago.


    lo and behold the stock price has gone down for the past two weeks. Actually, its gone down steadily for nearly three months.


    Looking through several posts in the quick chats over the past two months or so it would appear a few members have wasted quite a bit of money by adding to their position in this stock regularly, almost monthly. You know what I find fascinating and quite humorous at the same time? Those buying into this stock on a regular basis keep justifying it by claiming they are moving the average buy price down thus making their loss per share lower. They continue to invest in a stock in freefall yet convince themselves they are doing a good thing. That's always been a fascinating angle investors put on their losing investments. "I had $5,450 in the bank April 1st, decided to buy 1k worth of stock three months in a row and now my account is worth about $4,850 but hey, my average price per share is down quite a bit from that original moronic purchase of $1.95.


    I mean, let's be honest. If you buy 1k shares of CPST on the first of each month starting with April you would essentially buy at roughly $1.95, 1.85 and 1.65 respectively. Those trying to convince themselves these are smart moves claim that buy buying three different times, the average per share goes from the original $1.95 to $1.82 per share. Well, now that they have moved the average price per share down 13 cents they are in a much better position than they were three months ago with their first buy. In reality had they purchased the 1k in April and stood still with that they would have lost $300. Instead, with the stock purchase at $1.85 they have lost an additional $200 and if the price continues to drop the $1.65 buy will yield more losses yet somehow the investor convinces himself he is better off buying in May when in reality he is simply $200 more in the hole. Just a fascinating way of thinking. Now I rrealize I'm not a stock market savvy as some in here but I am pretty good in math and this guy is a loser plain and simple. Don't need to be a stock genius to solve that one.


    Of course if the stock turns around and goes to say $2.35 then this investor will rant and rave about his great investment plan. Funny thing is, the really intelligent investor researches the stock, the company behind it and realizes it is likely to drop more and more before it rises. Hence that investor is on the sidelines poised to move in for one time lump sum investment when it appears to be at or near a bottom. Of course no one can pick exact bottoms very often but I think its fair to say the writing is on the wall with CPST and has been for several months. Right now, this stock is tough to read but more likely to drop some more than not. Let's just say for example the guy on the sidelines has a feeling this stock will bottom out in the $1.20-$1.40 range. He waits, it drops below $1.40 (let's say1.35) and he puts a buy on should the stock reach $1.40 again. In the meantime he watches and if the stock drops, he moves his limit the same amount and continues to do so until the price makes a comeback and meets his limit price. Let's just say for example's sake that number ends up being $1.35 on September 15th.


    Our original investor now is into CPST for 7000 shares (1k per month) at what would likely be an average of roughly $1.50 (hey that genius leveraged down the average cost per share from $1.95 to $1.50 during the seven months... what a stock market guru he is!!!). Meantime our more intelligent investor scoops up 7000 shares at $1.35. Six months later the stock reaches $2.35 and both realize the company is no longer showing immediate promise for whatever reason and decide to both cash in. In those six months our investor #2 makes $7000 versus $5950 for the guy in since April.


    Now, correct me if I'm wrong but investor number two walks away with $1050 or 15% more than investor number one. What I keep wondering is how the buffoon who invested once each month convinces himself that averaging down is an awesome strategy.


    12 Jun 2011, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • Ford Motor said today that it will triple production of electrified vehicles -- gas-electric hybrids, plug-in hybrids and pure battery electrics -- for North America by 2013.
    9 Jun 2011, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Hmmm, might have an impact on REE demand, that.


    One wonders where they plan to build all those cars...


    China would work, of course.
    9 Jun 2011, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • FPA: Greetings. There has been speculation that Ford (F) is the secret unnamed American vehicle OEM involved with Axion Power (AXPW). That time line is somewhat suggestive IMHO. Just sayin it gets curiouser and curiouser.
    9 Jun 2011, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • I thought so too ;)
    9 Jun 2011, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Be careful.. you will get buffoon nation (BN) all excited and they will keep loading on the AXPW as it continues to plummet. I think the key here is to realize even if Ford is the secret company, it will take some time for these electric cars to start rolling off the assembly line and sell in big numbers. If AXPW is indeed tied in with Ford, next year might be a time to see a bottom at AXPW and consider loading up then. For now, AXPW and the other crowd favorite in here CPST are simply buffoon buys but then again this is buffoon nation (BN for short) so anything goes.
    13 Jun 2011, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Short Int. 5/31/11 +4.2%, ~1.7M+


    Settle Dte.. Sht Inter... % Chg. AvgDlyVol Days2Cvr
    05/28/2011 42,560,237.. 4.20 2,509,954 16.96
    05/13/2011 40,845,695.. 6.03 2,800,984 14.58
    04/29/2011 38,523,750.. 8.17 4,246,106. 9.07
    04/15/2011 35,613,115... 9.02 4,546,266. 7.83
    03/31/2011 32,667,904.. 3.68 7,230,197. 4.52
    03/15/2011 31,509,368 (7.19) 5,656,480. 5.57
    02/28/2011 33,951,551 (3.43) 3,543,931. 9.58
    02/15/2011 35,156,486. 20.45 6,757,845. 5.20
    01/31/2011 29,187,662. 11.65 2,931,010. 9.96
    01/14/2011 26,143,093. 14.08 3,816,318. 6.85
    12/31/2010 22,917,031 (0.71) 2,767,603. 8.28
    12/15/2010 23,080,312 (2.49) 2,191,817 10.53
    11/30/2010 23,670,247.. 3.90.. 788,387 30.02
    11/15/2010 22,781,067.. 0.55 1,672,012 13.62
    10/29/2010 22,657,365 (0.87).. 820,249 27.62
    10/15/2010 22,856,347.. 1.10 1,721,126 13.28
    09/30/2010 22,608,015 (1.01) 2,198,764 10.28


    9 Jun 2011, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Wow, talk about a linear progression.


    LOL, looks like a list of JPM's silver shorts.
    9 Jun 2011, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • "Silver shorts"? Being a bankster I thought he'd wear black shorts to match his hat!




    9 Jun 2011, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Ghosts are always in "silver".
    9 Jun 2011, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Grab all the stats, all the charts and all the theories and make yourself sound as if you know what you are talking about. Clearly there are some in here that are impressed. Bottom line, which is the only one that counts is that AXPW and CPST are penny stocks for a reason. Although each of them has a bit of potential, that potential is not likely to be reached for some time making buy ins now pretty silly. They are going down. Today was a nice little recess in the black but these two are not showing any reason for short term optimism. You can talk all the mumbo jumbo you want but at the end of the day all that matters is the stock price and it ain't good right now nor does it look good for the short term.
    9 Jun 2011, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • Stock humor... now there's something new... and pathetic.
    9 Jun 2011, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • It would appear that the implosion of Newt's campaign is complete as his top aids leave enmass.
    This had to set a record of some kind. He announced his run on a Friday. Blew up his campaign that Sunday and then went on vacation.
    9 Jun 2011, 05:27 PM Reply Like


    A new bear video I had missed. The guys have been busy, they have 32 of them now. I think they are hilarious.
    9 Jun 2011, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • They also tell it like it is... it seems strange that so many people have to go to the bears to get the real story as opposed to the so called news media... I wonder who owns the news media?
    10 Jun 2011, 01:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mine.


    Home all mine.


    Now the goal is to one day cut a check...bigger than I wrote the IRS.


    Day that happens...woowee!


    Mighty thanks to all QCers, especially toward you early-on-QCers. Every one of you aided in today's purchase.


    Thank you.
    10 Jun 2011, 01:12 AM Reply Like
  • Congratulations Maya!
    10 Jun 2011, 01:17 AM Reply Like
  • That is so great to hear!


    Now, pick a market "flat spot" when you have no other commitments and take a few days to just loll around and "unlax".


    You've earned a brief respite from the grind.




    10 Jun 2011, 06:37 AM Reply Like
  • MAYA


    Gonna miss those guys shoveling for you in winter??


    10 Jun 2011, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • Yeeeyah! Its like the lifting of a great weight from the mind...
    10 Jun 2011, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • Maya: Greetings. Congratulations on your closing. Paying in cash is awesome too. I hope you remembered to buy a distressed loan on the cheap from an owner or developer financed deal just to snub the banksters. LOL. Not to worry about the snow thing I hear Double, Guns has a tractor.
    10 Jun 2011, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • No, I won't. Still live where I lived before.
    10 Jun 2011, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • MAYA


    Congrads. Did i understand you stayed in a condo. If so good move!!! Those knees would have given out in no time doing your own shoveling.


    Lower back can't even take trying to clean off my walkway, so i either just let it melt or wait for the crew to arrive!!!


    13 Jun 2011, 01:03 AM Reply Like
  • (June 09, 2011) China's May exports growth slows to 19.4% from April's 29.9% From: MarketWatch
    10 Jun 2011, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks!




    Coining the term right now: "Reversonomics."


    Definition yet to be defined.
    10 Jun 2011, 02:26 AM Reply Like
  • Now you need to get on the board :)
    10 Jun 2011, 03:50 AM Reply Like
  • Voldemortomics.
    10 Jun 2011, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • Snooping around in some charts this morning and I noticed an interesting inverse association between gold (DGL) and silver (DBS) ETFs (based on future contracts) vs. some gold and silver physical mining stocks... For example, (ABX) is at a death cross, and its upper Bollinger is below its 200 day MA! Future contracts leading miners? Is this a "tell"?
    10 Jun 2011, 05:33 AM Reply Like
  • Did you mean (GLD)?


    Regardless, an interesting catch.


    10 Jun 2011, 06:39 AM Reply Like
  • No, but (GLD) works too... (GLD) is physical... (DGL) is future contracts (paper that guesses the value of the physical in the future - I would love to know the time line on the futures interest)...


    What I don't understand is why the miners are tanking while the physical and the futures are moving in the opposite direction...


    If the futures represent the appropriate future valuation, does that mean we are going to see a big pop in the PM miners in the near future? Can we tell from the futures contracts when that pop might occur?
    10 Jun 2011, 06:54 AM Reply Like
  • Does this help?







    10 Jun 2011, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • ... miners tanking?


    Input cost fear? Seasonality (summer months weakest for gold). Risk off the trend now? ETFs now cause strong correlations so a move out of stocks generally would hit PM miners along with the rest?


    10 Jun 2011, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • The Bears are telling me that we are going to see a bifurcation between paper etf precious metal pricing and physical metal pricing, starting especially with silver.


    Imagine a spot futures silver price of $25, and a physical price of $50 from all the traders. That would leave a mark...
    10 Jun 2011, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • I believe we have a backup plan brewing for commodities. At some time in the future (and again, we will probably see this in silver first) the exchanges will install tight position limits, or in those commodities where positions limits already exist, tighter limits. This would follow margin adjustments until those (as with silver) eventually lost their punch.


    The increasing number of producers who are going around the exchanges and selling their products direct to the consumer, investor and collector is a telltale that there may be substance to this theory.
    10 Jun 2011, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • FPA


    Missed the unemployment numbers yesterday, have any idea anyone>


    10 Jun 2011, 06:09 AM Reply Like
  • ACE: Greetings. Numbers were horrid. 400,000 new first time claims with more misery ahead. We are starting a round of layoffs here six at the beginning of this month with eight more coming in two weeks.
    10 Jun 2011, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Robert...Thanks. I saw a documentary on i believe HBO and if the gades would try and catch the rerun it was about the TO BIG TO FAIL banks. In fact i think that was the name of it, I only caught less than half of it so i will post it if i see it but the ending will have all of us posting the next day,,,,i am not telling !!!!


    thanks for the info as well


    10 Jun 2011, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • (June 10, 2010) Japan's Police to Send 150 Officers, Riot Squads to Tepco Meeting From The San Franciso Chronicle and Bloomberg


    Japan's National Police Agency will send 150 officers and riot squads to Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s annual general meeting this month to quell possible protests by shareholders and terror attacks, a police official said.


    About 7,000 shareholders are expected to attend the June 28 meeting, said the official, who declined to be identified, citing the agency's policy. Residents from Fukushima, where Tokyo Electric's crippled nuclear plant lies, may stage demonstrations, the official said. Officers and riot police will be stationed around the Prince Park Tower Tokyo Hotel, the venue for the shareholder meeting, the official said.


    Tokyo Electric's stock has slumped 91 percent, erasing 3.2 trillion yen ($40 billion) in market value, since the March 11 earthquake and tsunami triggered the worst nuclear crisis in 25 years. The disaster at the Fukushima nuclear station displaced 50,000 households in the evacuation zone because of radiation leaks into the air, soil and sea. [No mention of OTHER liabilities, which could be substantial]


    "It's going to be a stormy meeting," said Tomoko Murakami, a nuclear researcher at the Institute of Energy Economics in Tokyo. "The meeting will likely continue for hours and hours as individual investors will have a lot to say."


    I think they are going to need more police.
    10 Jun 2011, 06:09 AM Reply Like
  • Heres a wierd thought. Does the govt really care if our credit rating takes a small hit??? Exactly what would change, we buy our own treasuries right now anyway??


    Just a thought !!


    10 Jun 2011, 06:18 AM Reply Like
  • True, but they desperately need the camouflage that sales to others provide. Oddly enough, a primary support is still China. So long as they peg their yuan to the dollar, they have no choice but to support the dollar, unless they need the dollar to be cheaper (this has not been the case thus far, and with their inflation now a BIG problem for them, they will not want dollar depreciation, which would make their own inflation - particularly for energy and food - even worse).
    10 Jun 2011, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • (June 10, 2011) German Rating Agency Feri Downgrades US Government Bonds: AAA to AA! From: Zero Hedge by Smart Money Europe
    The beginning....
    10 Jun 2011, 06:28 AM Reply Like
  • Gades


    Which device is better to have to read outside...I am still old fashioned and buy my books. Wanna go the E order way. Just don't know which one gives you bang for the buck, like less brightness on the screen in the sunlight. If anyone would help the family wants to get me a Fathers day present since i am stuck reading a lot.


    10 Jun 2011, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • The new Nook looks good to me. The long battery life is a big plus, and its easy to read outdoors (just the simple black and white version, I believe its $119).


    If you need a color version, you will lose some of the glare resistance to get the big color touch screen (and pay about double).


    I own the Nook, and like it.
    10 Jun 2011, 08:36 AM Reply Like


    I knew i could reley on you. I have a 40 % coupon. Would love to be able to use it. Think the nook is better than the KINDLE??


    10 Jun 2011, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • I like it for several reasons. One is that it helps to prop up Barnes and Noble, one of the last major book chains in the US. I like book stores.


    The other thing is that it allows for sharing, which Kindle forbids.


    If you like fantasy and science fiction, check out the baen books site at . Look for their Free Library. They have hundreds of excellent books downloadable for free (you want to look for the Nook format to download, assuming you buy a Nook).
    10 Jun 2011, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • TB, ACE: Greetings. My daughter has a Kindle but is considering buying a new Nook for the battery life. She's a college student and down loads her text books.
    10 Jun 2011, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • My wife loves her nook! I like turning pages myself. I am considering an iPad though. I do everything on my iPhone and my eyes hate me!
    10 Jun 2011, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • ok


    Nobody loves me anymore, i get it!!


    10 Jun 2011, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • Join the club, hahahaha
    10 Jun 2011, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Greenvironment is a major customer of Capstone. Emerging out of the world financial crises they have been able to access capital markets and are again on a fast growth trajectory. Being almost exclusively a micro-turbine oriented business, their activities translate directly into effects on Capstone.


    They recently released "... annual results for 2010 and forecast figures for 2011 and 2012". If one considers the Euro/USD conversion, allocates some percentage to equipment purchases from CPST, we can see a substantial increase on the horizon for orders for CPST from Greenvironment. There is risk that the world economic activity slows, but how big this risk is I can't guess.


    The report, a 2 page PDF, is here.



    Greenvironment's site is here.



    They trade in the U.S. as (GIVZF), but they are currently *extremely* illiquid. That is, almost none!


    10 Jun 2011, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks to the tutoring from Rattie i am having either beginners luck or my call for a major correction on shorting the market IS COMING TO FLUITION!!!. Bought (SDS) pre market this morning and the way the market is going i might be out by lunchtime....


    Thanks Rattie...


    10 Jun 2011, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • That's great Ace.
    I bought (FAZ) yesterday... I hit my sell target this morning, and took profits.
    10 Jun 2011, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • What sort of goal are you setting for each action, Rat? I took 3% on RWM last time, and thought it was good.
    10 Jun 2011, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Same with me... I usually shoot for 3%... I got more then that on this one, but its up almost 5% now, so I left money on the table. That does not bother me at all. I like these little riffle shot nibble plays. I don't like being in a leveraged play over the weekend, so my next play will likely be on Monday.
    10 Jun 2011, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • I was happy with 2% in a day...Curious why you want to close a leverage play before the week ends..
    10 Jun 2011, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • According to China BAK, one of the world's largest lithium battery makers, China has suspended manufacturing of all lead acid batteries.


    Like Chinese REE miners, environmental issues have now swept into the lead acid battery sector.



    As for (CBAK), they have seen an increase of their e-bike battery sales, but the quarterly for the rest of the business...sucked bad eggs. Stock now priced almost as low as March 09'.




    Update on more US listed Chinese Restricted stocks:


    China BAK (CBAK)
    A-Power (APWR) -- Wind mill maker
    China Green Agriculture (CGA)
    China Precision Steel (CPSL)
    10 Jun 2011, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Can't find any news, but Beacon Power (BCON) is up 17% today.


    Maybe people getting in now before the New York plant opening in July?
    10 Jun 2011, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Sell it quick!!! A 20% single day gain from a dud like that!!! You'd be foolish to hold... it will drop like a rock before long. Consider this one day run a sweet gift and get out!
    10 Jun 2011, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Told you that dud BCON couldn't sustain a 20% gain. Plummetted at the end of the day for a gain of 7%. Hope you BCON owners listened to me. When I posted "sell it quick" it was up 22%. Hate to tell ya I told ya so but I told ya so.


    Oh and just for the record, if either AXPW or CPST have a day where they go up 10% or more i have one word for you .... sell!!!!
    10 Jun 2011, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • The new move at the CME to not deliver physical but deliver shares in precious metals ETFs and push the price of the metals/ETFs down.


    When they have no physical they will just deliver shares of ETFs. This changes the out look for sure since they now have the entire physical in the ETFs available for delivery. At least what shares they own. Those recieving the shares then have to sell them to get thier money. Pushing the prices of the ETFs down as large quantities are potentially sold off and the lower priced shares are then bought for the next delivery month.


    Think about that for just a brief minute and its scary.


    Of course having the physical in hand then becomes much more difficult to get so I believe there would be a huge divergence between paper and physical prices and the physical ETF's could get left out of some of this pricing action.


    Another reason to avoid the physical ETF's.


    Look at Kims statistics on how many contracts were settled this way in May. Nearly all contracts. So who are the blessed few that get to take physical deliver if everyone wants it. Are they being forced into this paper swap or are they choosing to take the paper? Lots of unanswered questions.

    10 Jun 2011, 01:38 PM Reply Like


    Late word out yesterday that the crackdown of the gold and silver manipulators has begun. Kitco, one of the partners in Gold and Silver Manipulation Scam, is being taken out by the authorities. It your fault if you have any metal in their paper games...


    Revenu Quebec Investigates Gold Fraud




    There will be a lot more of this as the veil comes off the metal market rigging operations. Kitco was running a gold and silver ponzi scheme that was started by none other than the infamous Jon Nadler.


    Nadler was the inventor and promoter of the Pooled Metal Investment accounts. He started this at Bank of America then implemented it at the Perth Mint, Kitco and the Royal Bank of Canada. The idea was that since everyone doesn't cash in their gold and silver certificates at the same time you could sell allocated and unallocated pooled account certificates without buying the actual metal. You then take that money and invest it in some other interest baring account and you get the interest gains.


    Like any ponzi scheme it only works when people don't try to withdraw their investment. Once they try to cash in certificates for real metal the game is over.


    This is where we are today...BUT WATCH WHAT HAPPENS NOW!


    There are many forms of paper metal ponzi schemes including ETF's, certificate programs, pooled accounts and even the COMEX and LME exchanges which are leveraged 100-1 paper metal vs the deliverable ounces.




    If you've been on the Road to Roota for long enough you KNOW that the ONLY way to survive this global meltdown is by holding PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER IN YOUR OWN POSSESSION!


    The time for explaining the reasoning behind this is over. If you still don't get it you should read the Road to Roota ARCHIVES here:



    The breakdown of the paper metal infrastructure has begun. With it will come the moonshot for physical metal, the destruction of paper metal to zero, the nationalization of mines and warehouse metal and ultimately the end of un-backed fiat money.


    It was always the plan.


    Best of luck to us ALL!


    Bix Weir
    11 Jun 2011, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • That is a tax fraud issue. Dont think it is taking out the manipulators. Thats not in the cards yet.
    13 Jun 2011, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Into EUO at $17.15.
    10 Jun 2011, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • S&P is now about 18 points above its 200 day MA. Williams %R at -100...
    10 Jun 2011, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • When S&P breaks below 1256...look out below.


    Next stop 1225, and then 1180.


    I'm calling 1180 will be the summer low. By then, lots of companies will look extremely cheap. There may be a minor over shoot of 10 or 20 points.


    1048 would be too painful to deal with.


    By the way, FPA, I'm not sure of this, but Williams %R seems to "work" best in a rising market, as when to buy.


    RSI is the indicator that helped John L. and myself call last years July low. Thinking this year RSI will reveal the same.


    Out shopping for the balance of the afternoon.
    10 Jun 2011, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • There's some *potential* old support points around the $1260 level. If this slide doesn't have a lot of momentum behind it, might get a pause there.


    I'm not saying they are strong, just that there's *potential*. In fact, they appear weak to me.


    10 Jun 2011, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • (BCON) getting some pump action from these guys:




    The shorts are all screeching about a 50% dilution coming soon...


    Noisey out there.
    10 Jun 2011, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Blood in the water
    10 Jun 2011, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Looks like a ton of shorts were playing the upcoming events as negative for BCON, and they might have turned the tables.


    As usual, my sentiments are with the longs.
    10 Jun 2011, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • I'll be preparing for another show tomorrow (Peachtree Corners, north of Atlanta, just a one day local show for me), so I may be absent from time to time. Everyone stay cool (I have a show canopy tent, electric fans, and my handy neck cooler collar, that reminds me, I need to put it on to soak in cool water) and have a good weekend!
    10 Jun 2011, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Stayed in Peach Tree a long time back. Loved it there.


    Best of luck!
    10 Jun 2011, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Ditto! In the 70's/80's. Smaller then, I'm sure.


    TB - have fun.


    10 Jun 2011, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • TB: Greetings. Best of luck and profits at your show. Have a most excellent week end.
    10 Jun 2011, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • TB let us know how you do. I am wondering if sentiment will be the same as the stock market.


    Best of luck not trying to jinx ya!!!
    10 Jun 2011, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Willdo. The Atlanta market is terrible, little improved from the depths of the recession. This one is located in a very high income zip code, but I don't hold out a lot of hope for it. My wife wanted to do it, and I'm going along to see if there is any improvement. The last good Atlanta show I had was in late 2006.
    10 Jun 2011, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Many of you are Peter Schiff fans, particularly OG. He was on BNN in Canada this morning for a half hour and the videos are now available in the BNN library. Here's a link to the first segment in a series of three:


    I've heard bits of the first video and the sound was fine. On second try, the sound was muffled. Usually it's perfect... so if the sound isn't great please recognize that that isn't the norm. Perhaps it's my own computer. Nope, Joan Armatrading sounds great today. lol
    10 Jun 2011, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks AR. I had been hunting it and couldn't come up with it.


    10 Jun 2011, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • My pleasure H.T.L. There are also some great commodities segments very day. You can find them in the line-up beneath the video that's playing.
    10 Jun 2011, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Forgot to mention I got my sling off. Now I have one wimpy arm dangling in the wind. Time to get working on it. More physical torture coming up.
    10 Jun 2011, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Glad your sling is off now DG. Give it time to heal properly, ok! That means no firing your 50 cal. for at least 2 months.
    10 Jun 2011, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Hope you get better. I hope the market gets better too. The sad fact is that most of the market downside is due to political failure to settle things such as raising the debt ceiling which is a no brainer.
    10 Jun 2011, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Double, Guns: Greetings. That is excellent news. While it may seem like torture the pay off will be fantastic. Here is wishing all the "Gades." and followers a great week end.
    10 Jun 2011, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Japan reports reactors 1, 2 and 3 had melt throughs of the pressure vessels. Much worse than melt downs. Duh!!


    Japan now considering closing all 54 nuclear reactors by April 2012. I can not see how they could do that but....


    Both stories are down the home page.

    10 Jun 2011, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • B. of A. may shut bond trading unit: report





    10 Jun 2011, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • David Urban things the second half of the year will be better than expected. He makes some reasonable arguments, one of which is:


    "This will result in faster than expected growth in the second half of this year.


    A second reason is related to the sell-off’s commencing at 2:15 p.m. on Monday and Tuesday of this week which appear to be the result of forced selling through margin calls.


    The lack of a spike in the VIX indicates the sel-off is not the beginning of a bear market but a localized reaction to the quantification of effects related to the Japanese disaster on global supply chains worldwide and margin calls".


    However, he makes no mention of the changing financial landscape, specifically QE 2 ending, and the effects that should follow from that.


    Might be worth a quick read, which it is, anyway.



    A similar take, short-term on the market though, is provided by "This Is Not the Start of a Bear Market in Equities". Again, no consideration of the QE 2 withdrawal symptoms is given though. But it does have more "meat on the bone".



    10 Jun 2011, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • I agree. 2nd article is better.


    Nice catch, Hard.
    10 Jun 2011, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks HTL.


    Funny how the pundits are blissfully unaware of QE.


    Explains a lot, really.
    10 Jun 2011, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • A less complicated and much shorter take on this is...
    .... summer time is often a very slow time for the market and as we get into the fall, back to school, approaching big holidays, market activity increases. Therefore, bigger swings and rebounds are much more likely then.


    Gee, real in-depth insight.
    12 Jun 2011, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • And in line with our "Fair and Balanced" mantra, "10 Reasons the Market Pullback Will Continue". He does mention QE 2 as well.



    10 Jun 2011, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Ah ha... I was wondering why the financials suddenly reversed course at 2pm today, so I started sniffing... Here is the answer from The Disciplined Investor site:


    (June 10, 2011) The 2pm Squeeze – Thank Your Local Fed Banker


    A dreary day in market land. As if it was not bad enough that the month of June has only had one positive day for the S&P 500. The Euro was melting away, the equity markets with it. Precious metals were getting slammed and it was getting close to a level that looked as if there was not support for another 2% or so….


    Then, almost to the second, as the clock struck 2pm… A Miracle! An announcement slipped out that the banks might not be required to put aside as much as first thought. A well-placed story at a particularly good time, Right? ... Come on fellas, are we going to go through this again? Feed a story and see how the markets take it. AND, on a Friday at 2pm?
    Look at the daily chart for any of the big banks and look at the 2PM pop.
    10 Jun 2011, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • With the loss of "swipe fees" mandated by various "finreg" reforms, I guess folks are looking for some relief for the banks.


    Hmm, a never-ending story there ISTM.


    Today JPM got a really big 2 P.M. spike, as did the whole XLF community.


    So while we "fix" TBTF to eliminate "systemic risk", predominately engendered, IMO, by the as-yet unrecognized toxic assets on their balance sheets, we simultaneously make it easier for them to continue reel down the hallway bouncing from wall to wall in a financially drunken stupor while collecting outlandish bonuses by ...


    Potentially relaxing capital requirements?


    I'll tell ya' it's almost to the point that we ought to have treasury issue our non-debt currency as mandated in the constitution and just cut these suckers out of the loop entirely.


    But I guess we'll have to crash the system again first. And again, and again, and again, ...


    10 Jun 2011, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • It was a classic. The gang got advance notice on the news release, and set up the Con.


    When the embargo on the news was lifted at 2PM, they closed their shorts and went leveraged long.


    Financials re-bounded triggering a short squeeze.


    Than after financials reversed to todays opening prices, they closed their leveraged longs and re-initiated their leveraged shorts.


    This allowed them to double their profit on financials for the day.
    10 Jun 2011, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Da Boyz arrrrrre back!
    12 Jun 2011, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • Preliminary Russell Global, 3000 and Microcap additions and deletions. The reconstitution schedule is here.



    There's some interesting additions and deletions. If you are in any of these equities, or considering them, be aware that high volume and volatility will occur on and around the dates of final inclusion or removal of an equity,



    10 Jun 2011, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • Some symbols I seem to recall seeing in the QCs over time appear on the Russell lists for *potential* inclusion. If they make the final cut, and sometimes even before that, there is often a volume and volatility increase. And inclusion almost assures a pps move up as funds that follow the indexes buy the newly-included equities.


    Just be careful if you decide to add/enter early as the list is *not* finalized and a great number will *not* make the final cut.


    Russell Global: (ACPW), (GPL), (ICLK), (PNPFF).
    Russell 3000: (ACPW).
    Russell Microcap: (ACPW), (BCON), (HEV), (KOOL)


    The Russell list are preliminary and follow a winnowing process, detailed here.



    The list of current candidates are here.



    11 Jun 2011, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • Stock question (opinion) please. While working my horses in the morning,I love rocking out to my pandora radio app on my iPhone. You put in an artist or a song and it seems to play great songs one after another without repeating. I also play it in the background on my computer while doing my bills. Sometimes you just buy what you like,but this market is worrisome. Anyone else into pandora at all? Or is this a limited or no upside move? Thanks!
    10 Jun 2011, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • Double m, if you could give us the symbol of Pandora (or a parent company) it makes it easier to track it down to take a look. I found Pandora (jewelry maker, Denmark), but I doubt that is the author of your software.
    12 Jun 2011, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • IPO coming soon... symbol will be P.


    Some think it will compete with SIRI... some think its a fad...


    Seeking Alpha articles on it:


    Off and out in Orlando... hope the art sales are booming this weekend!
    12 Jun 2011, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • It is going to be P (sorry)
    12 Jun 2011, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • I like the idea, but an IPO needs mucho solid data to evaluate. As we have seen with other wild IPOs this past year, the real question may boil down to timing and valuation.


    One to watch, but I am expecting a firestorm of IPOs if we can ever get clear of the economic hangover and threatening double dip.
    12 Jun 2011, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Stocks I think have been mentioned in the QCs which are being considered for removal from one of the Russell indexes follow. Stocks removed from these indexes often suffer severe price declines around the final reconstruction date and shortly thereafter (or even much longer).


    Russell Global: (ABAT), (DEER), (GZPFY), (UQM)
    Russell 3000: (ABAT), (ENER), (UQM)
    Russell Microcap: (LNG), (XIDE), (STEM)



    As with the additions, these are preliminary and the final cut (no pun intended) will occur according to the schedule shown here.



    11 Jun 2011, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • TO BIG TO FAIL !!!!!!! HBO SUNDAY @ 4 PM !!!!!


    I only caught the last 10 minutes and although it was most of what we know already i am looking to see what the beginning brought. So tivo it or look at the HBO schedule as it is being shown more than once !!!


    11 Jun 2011, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • WWW.harveyorgan.blogsp.../


    This article explains more about Kitco's problem and whether they are guilty or not. It is a tax question as far as i can tell.


    So i am assuming my other post is bogus


    11 Jun 2011, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Just to keep us from getting to complacent this weekend, especially about the Euro's "Ode to a Grecian Earn" issues, I thought I'd mention this.


    "It is also noteworthy in the context that U.S. based money market funds have currently 42% of their assets invested in dollar-denominated commercial paper issued by European banks. It is easy to see therefore that the risk of a Greek default has systemic implications that go way beyond the euro area".


    Certainly a reassuring statement from "Credit Markets: A Gathering Storm" by Pater Tenebrarum. But fret not - it gets better.


    It's a fairly long read. But very complete. It notes that whereas the wealthy Greeks first began withdrawing money from their banks, now the middle-class has begun doing so. IOW, there's now a run on the Greek banks in progress.


    Half way through the article he really starts to address the U.S. credit sector.


    My take is the U.S. tax payer is about to get screwed once again by the same folks that screwed them before: TBTF banks. You see, we gave them all this money, which they promptly paid out in huge bonuses, and the Fed gave them all this money, which they promptly deposited with the Fed as "excess reserves" and collected risk-free interest, which is ultimately paid by the taxpayer through interest paid on government bonds which ... Well, you see how it goes.


    Anyway, now we'll be on the hook not only for the 42% money market exposure to ECBs, but also ... ready to remember the nastiest things?


    CDS! Yep, Credit Default Swaps. Anyone remember the fiasco around AIG, GS, ... ? Well, guess what.


    "While there are no details available, one must infer from the BIS data that the exposure is much higher than was hitherto suspected. For instance, it appears as though U.S. banks have been writers of CDS on euro area sovereign debt. In case of a credit event, they would be liable for paying out significant amounts to the holders of such CDS".


    We get to pay for Europe's bail-out too!


    AIN'T THAT SPECIAL! Back in the TARP days the Fed was giving money to European banks when it was supposed to be saving our buns. I bet they used that money to buy U.S. bank-underwritten CDS!


    Adding insult to injury, "Alas, there will still be considerable market upheaval once this becomes reality and the current "extend and pretend" period well and truly ends. This happens just as the U.S. real estate credit markets are once again becoming highly unstable and losses are once again mounting".


    Of course, the bears have been calling for the final collapse of everything since ... time immemorial? But given enough time and circumstances they will eventually be right regardless of politics, the Fed, ...


    The math of a debt-money system and CBs never fails.


    Well worth your time to read, IMO.



    11 Jun 2011, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    Thank you for this summary.
    12 Jun 2011, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah. And once again wrecking my Sunday!


    Great research, Hard.
    12 Jun 2011, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks... after reading through the mountain of gibberish which could have been edited to about half the space and said just as much, I realize all this means is that with these conditions in place, silver is likely to rebound so I'm good with that. :-)
    12 Jun 2011, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • Next week has a "quadruple witching day". Expect increased volatility.




    On the 24th the Russell indexes finalize the restructuring, a normally high-volatility period for stocks affected by that action.


    Then at the end of this month we have both the end of QE 2 *and* a typical "window dressing" period. Which will rule, the QE 2 end bringing prices down (if anticipations are correct) or the "window dressing" where losers are dumped and winners bought by folks and firms that make their living doing this stuff professionally?


    Should be an interesting rest-of-the-month.


    11 Jun 2011, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • I submitted another article to SA today... if it does not get published, I will put it out as an insta....
    12 Jun 2011, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • Best of luck, User, err...Rattie...err, FPA!
    12 Jun 2011, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • A couple of points taken from Axion's Form 10-K hard copy version I received Saturday:


    --"We expect to advance to full field-testing with Norfolk Southern during the second quarter of 2011."


    They have.


    --"We anticipate the PowerCube energy storage system will be fully functional during the summer of 2011. There is a solar tree component to this project, being installed by our strategic partner Envision Solar, which we expect to be fully functional within the same time frame."


    Have done this, too.


    --"In addition, we began developing smaller PowerCube units (mini-cubes) for smaller storage applications. These applications include residential storage and small commercial storage. The end product will provide backup power, power quality, power smoothing, and in most cases will be combined with a solar power component. We have entered into a memorandum with a group that intends to take this product to market."


    Most of this I already new about, but I did not know about this new "mystery" understanding.


    --We continue our work on the grant from the offices of Naval Services (ORN) in 2010. This project is aimed at developing for the Navy and the Marine Corps silent watch program and their assault vehicle program. We have entered into a memorandum of understanding with a group that intends to take this product to market."


    Knew about the Silent Watch program. But...another sneaky "understanding" has come forth which seems to have snuck by even John Petersen--though I'm sure he knows; just hasn't written about this as far as I can recall.


    --"PcB batteries use significantly less lead standard lead-acid batteries with a comparable footprint, and the lead, plastics and acid employed, just like lead-acid batteries, can be routinely recycled at existing recycling facilities around the world. As is the case with the lead acid battery, we expect that in the United States out PbC battery will be fully recycled 99.1% of the time (United States Environmental Agency, Solid Waste and Energy Response [5306P]).


    Freya, I put this one in here for you. Please don't yell at me!


    (And...for the truly geeky...what follows does explain why Axion has a fantastic shot at gaining a market share of the coming stop/start battery industry)


    --In 2010, we also continued to work with several major global automotive manufacturers that have made commitments to fleet wide adoption of hybridization of their future manufactured vehicles. This commitment was strongly influenced by European Union (EU) legislation that requires reductions in CO2 emissions for all new passenger vehicle production in Europe beginning in 2012. In the first year of the phased-in requirement, 65% of the fleet (average) is required to reduce CO2 emissions to 130 grams per kilometer. The percentage ratchets up to 75% in 2013, 80% in 2014 and a full 100% in 2015. Beginning in 2012, failure to comply with the regulation would result in a fine based on the number of grams of CO2 that were emitted above the 130 gram limit. The assessment would begin with 5 euros for the first gram; 15 euros for the second; 25 euros for the third; 95 euros for the forth; and 95 euros for every subsequent gram of CO2 over the 130 gram limit. This fine would be assessed against the entire new manufactured fleet of an OEM. In real terms it means that if an OEM manufactured one million vehicles (and there are several that do) in 2015, and that manufacturer was 5 grams of CO2 over the limit (at the 135 grams of CO2 per kilometer level), then that manufacturer would be fined 235 million euros for the year 2015, and for every subsequent year of non-compliance (European Parliament regulation EC443/2009).


    Talk about an incentive to start adding stop/start batteries, which will comply and avoid these stiff fines! And only a handful of companies are ahead of the pack; Axion being one of them.
    12 Jun 2011, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply »


    New QC is ready. Life goes on...


    13 Jun 2011, 07:17 AM Reply Like
  • "How to Use Capital Flows for Portfolio Gains in a Challenged Economy" from April 27, contains this tidbit.


    "U.S. multinational corporations (MNCs) cut 2.9 million domestic jobs in the 2000s, but hired 2.4 million workers overseas, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. General Electric Co. (GE), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), and Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), are just a few of the U.S. stalwarts that in the past decade have expanded their overseas operations at the expense of U.S. employment".


    But that's just a fact. The article suggests following capital flows to make investing decisions. A short read and worth adding to consideration in stock selection.



    But it really is a multi-nationals' effect that causes this trend.


    ISTM that there are niches where the capital stays here and that offer good investing or trading opportunities here as well.


    These would be companies that have low labor percentage components in COGS and possibly a large export component in their revenues as well. If they operate in a business-friendly state (lower taxes, maybe incentives, good supporting educational infrastructure, ...) that would be a plus.


    I've not had a chance to start researching this, but both the author's considerations and the thoughts I mention may be strategies of some use.


    13 Jun 2011, 07:29 AM Reply Like
  • Start with companies in Texas. Only state out of 50 with an economy with solid growth, and the one that weathered the recession best.


    No wonder they want to reactivate their escape clause from their original treaty joining the United States. Can't blame them a bit...
    13 Jun 2011, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • Don't forget about North Dakota, even though North Dakota is a most forgetable state.
    13 Jun 2011, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Dakota.... There is something about that name that I like... it flows off your tongue... it would make a great name for a car...


    Imagine yourself driving down the street in your new luxury Dakota...


    Apparently the name means friend or ally... once again, a good name for a car.
    13 Jun 2011, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Like the brand new 2011 RAM Dakota? ;-)


    13 Jun 2011, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Ahhh... that's great... I guess that tells you how much I watch TV.
    13 Jun 2011, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • "QE2: Damaging the Economy and Reducing GDP Growth", an excellent article from Dian L. Chu in late April, discusses the effects of QE 2 in quite some detail. She describes why it depresses the economy and advocates ending it early. She details how it depresses the economy as well.


    The comments in the article are worth reading as well.



    13 Jun 2011, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • I don't know how much credence to give these guys, since the agree with my bias, but ... Zacks says





    13 Jun 2011, 10:51 AM Reply Like
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