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  • QC#258 336 comments
    Jun 17, 2013 8:50 AM

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    "The Reeds" by stan bruns, all rights reserved 2013.

    Coastal scene from near Tampa, Florida. Watercolors on board, 2.75 x 3.75" active area.

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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    On Maya's recent high yield theme...

     

    And continuing my thesis about sector rotation...

     

    I am officially coining a new phrase for what I see happening with rotating sectors: Flash Rotation. This is what we are seeing with the high yield subsectors hit recently, and as I noted in the last QC, I moved back into several investments in this area over the last 2 weeks.

     

    PSEC was my first such move, and it paid off well, up strong since re-entry. I held FSC through the downturn because I viewed it as a bank/financial play as well as high yield, and it has also turned the corner.

     

    Today I re-entered downtrodden ARR, which I departed at $5.2x not long ago. I have hopes for this one.

     

    Finally I initiated a small position in ORC, rounding out my review of the "Monthly" group in this sector.

     

    I considered CFP, but decided to keep it on "Watch" for now, along with JMI, and for similar reasons. I need to be more familiar with their trading patterns going forward (since I expect them to be warped by the afterwash of the Flash Rotation).

     

    Currently reviewing high yield petro/energy plays...
    17 Jun 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Trip: I like your new term, "Flash Rotation."

     

    What I'm seeing is high yielding stocks within a sector are being targeted by hedge funds taking profits on long term holds, while also increasing their short positions, and likely also making money using puts, too. They flush out the retail stops, and then sweep in to buy at both a higher yield and more potential growth because of how the bots and algoputers have driven down the price.

     

    A perfect case of this is Linn Energy. Barons comes out with several articles, bashing the GAAP procedures LINE uses for puts on the future prices of oil and natural gas out to the year 2016.

     

    The game was then on. And questions and articles began surfacing that the dividend was/is suspect.

     

    When it comes to upstream MLPs, no MLP can continue to increase dividends, or even keep the payments at the same level, if their resources are continuously depleting. Upstream MLPs must grow, to constantly make acquisitions, if their corporate mission is to continue to succeed (which is why I predict a huge M&A increase in the MLP sector if a company like LINE get SEC's approval to obtain a petroleum company and NOT pay taxes on the oil produced).

     

    Right now, two hedge funds are simultaneously selling Linn Energy. I saw two ~ million share transactions go off within minutes of each other last week. That's over $60,000,000 in just two trades...within minutes!

     

    I would be willing to bet that both of these hedge funds are in collusion, and are increasing their short positions, while also making money on puts. Short percentage of LINE has dramatically risen in the last month. I expect the hedgies to continue to put downward pressure on LINE, until the news cycle changes. And that news cycle should change next month when the SEC approves the Berry Petroleum acquisition.

     

    The game gets even fiercer when the stock gets pushed beneath the 50 day, 100 day and 200 day moving averages, and like LINE, gets pushed below two year support, trashing all potential technical analysis.

     

    Same thing seems to be going on with Windstream, or any company that any shred of news comes forth that the high yield may be in jeopardy, the hedgies then pounce, and begin a bear raid. And when this occurs, the bear raid, albeit briefly, spills over into the entire sector.

     

    The more I learn about the stock market, the more I learn how vicious hedge funds can be.
    17 Jun 2013, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Windstream (WND) is one I just reviewed while cruising through the High Yield group. Its trading at a low point for the year, and the yield is up, so I gave it a look... One thing which struck me was that its Payout Ratio is skyhigh at 385%. So either the stock price is WAY below where it should be, or the dividend is too high in relation to earnings (its the last, of course). I did not dig deeper, it really isn't something I wanted right now, but I think that unless the company has a solid plan to dramatically increase its revenues, and quick, that dividend is in big trouble.

     

    Telecom is a troubled sector, and has been for a very long time. I currently just stay away from it.
    18 Jun 2013, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Trip: The ticker for Windstream is (WIN).
    18 Jun 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    That's right.
    18 Jun 2013, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Cramer urged the SEC to investigate a bear raid in Linn Energy stock (LINE) and now the Yahoo message board is abuzz with speculation. http://yhoo.it/11XfkPq Could this be a buying opportunity or is the M&A piece of this already squelched?
    18 Jun 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Thought I'd take a look a (LINE) for you and noticed a couple things that might be worth a consideration.

     

    I threw up a chart here. Clicking on it will expand it and then use the control and plus or minus key combinations to expand and contract it more or less, at least in Firefox.

     

    http://bit.ly/11vP9jm

     

    Looking in the red circle on the right, there is a gap that may want to get filled, especially if there's traders in there. Current price and volume levels look like it may be getting ready to do a re-trace. A typical "reversion to the mean" (~$31.80 target and a wee overshoot) would fill the gap, the bottom of which is $31.73. 'Course there's also the Fibonacci re-trace points.

     

    Note that it is not uncommon for the edges of a gap to act as support and resistance points, especially if they match other demonstrated points, as this one does. But caution is warranted even if it does pause there - may be just uncertainty before the next move direction is undertaken.

     

    Notice the coincidence of the descending red line and blue horizontal line. If another close on good, especially increasing, volume occurs above these two lines there has been a confirmed "break out" and it's likely another run up to fill the gap above may get under way. But with the volatility, it would be a good idea to have relatively tight "stop loss limit orders" (I emphasize "limit" - don't use market stop loss orders with a possible bear raid and volatility in play) standing by.

     

    If the breakout fails and a re-trace begins, all is not lost. There's an excellent chance that a bullish (inverted) head and shoulder pattern may form. For now, the blue line (neckline) would be the confirmation of a break out from the head and shoulders if it does form and complete. For this to happen the shoulder needs to form up in the next week or so (shoulder peak likely anywhere in the area of $32.74ish, in which case the gap below will likely not get filled, or $0.317x-$0.321x area) and the break up or down should happen within a day or two after the neckline is approached again - otherwise the pattern should be considered "iffy" at best.

     

    Last thought: notice the call contract volume and put contract volume (Call CV and Put CV) below around 5/3 (in the area of the huge red volume spike) and around the 6/18 area. I don't know if these are results of protective actions by longs or the bear raiders are using options to move the price around (buying puts should cause the market makers (if they are the counter-parties rather than retail traders) to short the underlying into the market) with a lot less capital. Looking at the long-term trend on the Put/Call Ratio (Open Interest), I suspect strongly that the bears are using options to move price around since it kept rising even in periods of relative price stability.

     

    So I would suggest watching put options activity and price movement, and OI the next day, to get a possible clue. It won't be definitive in what it suggests, but may be another piece of the puzzle.

     

    HTH,
    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2013, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Hard!

     

    Inside your red circle are the occurrences of the bear raid, and then the pronouncements of Cooperman, Cramer, Raymond James, as well LINE defending itself. It looks like the bear raid has been defeated. But then again....

     

    I can see the logic behind your TA, and all may well work out as your theory suggests. We could definitely see a revert to the mean. But, the chart has been created via high profile media events, not normal business as usual activity, which for me makes short term "ratchet-around" charting a little more difficult to define.

     

    LINE is going to remain under the media microscope until the Berry Petroleum deal goes through, which of course, still has to be both approved by the BYP shareholders, as well as the SEC.

     

    I'm amazed that WindTrader's $34 October call options are so cheap. That's the one to watch.

     

    If/when approval is granted, I can see LINE making a mad dash upward to $40 to $42 before any major resistance becomes apparent. At this level is where I expect to chop my position in half.

     

    If the deal is not approved, the stock will quickly tank into the high $20s, and once again, I'll have a big bet loser on my hands, and I will then be found brown bagging it with some Jamo down in some moldy, rat-strewn sewer.

     

    Sorry FPA!

     

    Thanks again!
    22 Jun 2013, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    >MAYA

     

    "If/when approval is granted, I can see LINE making a mad dash upward to $40 to $42 before any major resistance becomes apparent."

     

    I, for one would be a happy camper-
    23 Jun 2013, 06:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Maya et al: (LINE) has a bearish engulfing candle. From Bulkowski's site ...

     

    "Tested performance: Bearish reversal 79% of the time".

     

    This is a very good percentage.

     

    "Best percentage meeting price target: 76% (bear market, down breakout)".

     

    This is also a good performance metric.

     

    "Best percentage meeting price target: 76% (bear market, down breakout)".

     

    I don't think we'll see this one as the extremes of a gap very often act as support and resistance, at least temporarily. I'm thinking $32-$31.50ish if we allow a little overshoot and a) the top of the gap acts as resistance or b) the gap gets filled.

     

    I'm thinking seriously of selling some puts in the mid-to-high $2x range *now* or buying some calls if it gets much under $32.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jun 2013, 06:58 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    August 17th Options Now Available For Linn Energy

     

    http://onforb.es/11YjB14

     

    Bears were winning this morning, bulls this afternoon. This stock appears to be reverting to the mean, upwards. Suggest to be careful with the puts.
    25 Jun 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Maya: *selling* puts, not buying. I don't mind owning Linn anywhere in the mid-ti-high $2x range, so I get the shares for the strike, less the premium, in effect.

     

    You'll remember this is also one of Joe Schaefer's favorite ways to get good stocks at cheap prices.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jun 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    >HTL

     

    Read the article and considered the logic you illustrated- Made sense to me.
    Sold (LINE) $33 PUT contracts at $1.75- Not as good as the article but I'm happy- so far.
    {:-)}

     

    Thanks, HTL

     

    WT
    25 Jun 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Ahhh! Gotcha. Now it makes sense.
    25 Jun 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    China whispered some comforting words. US real estate market has improved. By improved I mean the inventory is being controlled very closely to make it seem there is little inventory. It's a happy, happy day.
    Sell those puts, guys. It should be clear, even to the busy trader-manipulators, that "QE Infinity" will be ongoing, worldwide if the darn EU could only get their act together and dismiss the legal governments in place of a new EZ controlled from Brussels.
    Happy... happy... happy....It's all good.
    25 Jun 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    I purchased KORS after it got knocked down last Thursday. Friday and Monday have been two good days. I'm not committed to it. It's a trade not a hold.
    I like your water scene, TB. Is this a new piece? It's elegant and simple.
    17 Jun 2013, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Yes, its new, OG. I have a number of small paintings (just slightly bigger than my smallest miniatures) which I am adding to my line now.

     

    I will look at KORS.

     

    thanks
    17 Jun 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Michael Kors knows fashion, no doubt about it, even if he's not of Runway anymore...

     

    I see this one as trading near the top of its trend, which has indeed outperformed the S&P handily this past year. I don't know squat about fashion, however, so I steer clear of the rag trade in general.

     

    Best of luck with KORS, OG. As long as Hong Kong is treated as a separate country (sort of) by China, and the yuan stays strong, this one should perform.
    17 Jun 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    It hasn't even made the 50% retracement from it's May high, which would bring it back to the $62.50 area. It's a buck away. It could get there tomorrow. The options are very liquid, too. This is an easy one to sell options and optimize the return in a week or two.
    17 Jun 2013, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Energy sector high yielders I have looked over, initial thoughts:

     

    VLCCF Knightsbridge Tankers is trading near the bottom of its 52 week chart, and is paying 10.92% div. I like this one just a little cheaper than today's close, say $.6.30.

     

    NSLP New Source Energy is a snoozer to me, trading flat, probably a very secure 10% earner. Not interesting.

     

    NTI Northern Tier Energy is one to watch. It could spike down a bit and become attractive, somewhere around $23.50. Yield is currently 19.41%, and would be well over 20% in the event of a downdraft of any size. This is a "story" stock, where the reason WHY the sector took a dip would be germane to the investment decision.

     

    PDH Petro Logistics is another like Northern Tier. Watch it for a while and look for a bargain under $11.80 to snag 12%+.

     

    QRE QR Energy is a go with just a mild dip in price, buyable at $16.30 and yielding over 11%.

     

    CHKR Chesapeake Trust is also near a buy, with my buy@ set at $14.30 and very happy with the 18.01% div.

     

    CVRR CVR Refining is another snoozer, though it has such a high div at 20.81%, who needs excitement with the share price? If share price appreciation is immaterial, this is a good one to look at in the $30-31 range.

     

    AS ALWAYS, do your own research folks.

     

    More later...
    17 Jun 2013, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    OK, updating the action I took against this list of high yielding energy stocks:

     

    VLCCF Bought at $6.30, currently up $.61, 9.7%

     

    NTI Bought at $23.50, currently up $.25, 1.1%

     

    PDH Bought at $11.81, currently up $.74, 6.3%

     

    QRE Bought at 16.30, currently up $.83, 5.1%

     

    CHKR Bought at 14.53, currently up $.60, 4.2%

     

    CVRR Did NOT buy, too deep a dip, but I SHOULD have, currently $30.02, up from the $26.44 bottom, which would have been hard to pick imo.

     

    Overall, a very satisfactory start in this sector for me thus far.
    27 Jun 2013, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Interesting picks, trip.

     

    I'll take a gander at them, as some I've never before heard of.

     

    I've given some thought about initiating several small positions in newer MLPs, which either could grow price-wise, or be bought out. But I haven't done much research, yet.

     

    ####

     

    Here's a wonderful Financial Post article written about status of the 37 current pipelines planned or underway. These could be tradable events, or catalysts for possible investments for the long term:

     

    http://bit.ly/1aSiec0
    27 Jun 2013, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Update on the High Yield raid:

     

    OK, updating the action I took against this list of high yielding energy stocks:

     

    VLCCF Bought at $6.30, currently up $1.15, cashed $.175 div, up $1.325 or 21.0%

     

    NTI Bought at $23.50, currently up $.13, cashed $1.23 div, up $1.36 or 5.8%

     

    PDH Bought at $11.81, currently up $1.39 or 11.8%

     

    QRE Bought at 16.30, currently up $1.47, cashed $.4875 div, up $1.9576 or 12.1%

     

    CHKR Bought at 14.53, currently up $1.07, cashed $.69 div, up $1.76 or 12.1%
    1 Jul 2013, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Great moves, trip! Congrats.
    1 Jul 2013, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    At the 2 week mark, I am up on the basket of stocks about 12.6% (I am taking all dividends as cash so there is no reinvestment compounding).
    1 Jul 2013, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Updating the list of high yielding energy stocks after some price settling over the past week:

     

    VLCCF Bought at $6.30, currently up $.81, cashed $.175 div, up $.985

     

    NTI Bought at $23.50, currently up $.38, cashed $1.23 div, up $1.61

     

    PDH Bought at $11.81, currently up $1.14

     

    QRE Bought at 16.30, currently up $.18, cashed $.4875 div, up $.6675

     

    CHKR Bought at 14.53, currently up $.94, cashed $.69 div, up $1.63

     

    Overall my gains have trailed off to 9.5%.
    9 Jul 2013, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    A lot better than my energy high yielders of late.

     

    Brietburn Energy Partners is under attack from Hedgeye again. But the insiders used the attack as a chance to...

     

    12:59 PM Breitburn Energy Partners' (BBEP +4.6%) CFO and an executive VP bought a combined 26K shares on July 5 at $15.07-$15.28 worth ~$400K (I, II). The purchases follow another insider buy from CEO, who reported buying 30K shares at $14.68-$14.92 on July 3, worth ~$450K.

     

    When Cramer sheepishly barked "sell" for Linn Energy, the following day was time to buy. Haven't watched Mad Money since Cramer flipped. And likely won't be watching him for a while, as Thursday I depart for Louisville, Kentucky, to attend my Nephew's Southern Bourbon and Cigar Tasting Bachelor Party.

     

    Not yet sure when I'm coming back.
    9 Jul 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I am seeing signs of this sector rotating back into favor (making for a true "flash rotation" given the brief spike down):

     

    VLCCF Bought at $6.30, currently up $.84, cashed $.175 div, up $1.015

     

    NTI Bought at $23.50, currently up $.09, cashed $1.23 div, up $1.32

     

    PDH Bought at $11.81, currently up $1.11

     

    QRE Bought at 16.30, currently up $.80, cashed $.4875 div, up $1.2875

     

    CHKR Bought at 14.53, currently up $.94, cashed $.69 div, up $1.63

     

    Overall my gains have recovered to 10.0%.

     

    I believe there is an additional 15% of short term top in this basket, which will probably require the remainder of the quarter to realize.

     

    I set a 20% goal for gains in this effort going in, and anticipated a 3 month horizon to achieve those goals. We will see if this pans out.
    11 Jul 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    For those having positions sensitive to WTI, "COT Data Suggests Oil's Fall Is Coming"

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jun 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Good catch, HTL.

     

    The grist mill also is spewing out a likelihood that with Iran's new president, oil production from there will rise some 2,000,000 barrels/day, further exacerbating the plans of speculators holding long positions.

     

    The crack spread between crude and Brent may tighten. If this occurs, Carl Icahn's CVRR may pull back, and that juicy but risky 20% dividend may go even higher.

     

    On another note, I was talking to my broker early this morning, pondering in stress about Linn Energy. Should I sell? Should I add (already have a lot, for me)? Or, should I just hold on.

     

    We debated, and covered a lot of ground about the Baron's GAAP flap about LINE's accounting of puts out to the year 2016, that insiders are purchasing (another director just added, on top of the COO and CEO adding during this media-hyped highly dubious bear raid), and that all seemed well with Linn's investor relations about going forward with the Berry Petroleum purchase.

     

    This morning, LINE was down as much as $1.42 from yesterday's close, all seemingly led by some person/entity called "Hedgeye," who apparently is a rogue assassin writer, who gets hired to write bear articles for hedgies, to aide or facilitate their short positions.

     

    Sometimes I wonder why in the hell am I playing this stock market game, when such atrocities go untouched by the SEC.

     

    My broker advised me to ride it out, and guess what, mere hours later LINE has recouped and pulled positive on the day. Now, of course I'm pissed I didn't have the cahones to add.

     

    LINE was down well south of 3% this morning, and now is up over 1%.

     

    Surely does appear that some short squeezing going on today, which if it is, delights me no end.
    18 Jun 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Maya: If that article is right, refiners ought to do well.

     

    Your stash of WFC literature have any thoughts on them?

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jun 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    HTL: No, I don't have any WFC literature on refiners, but I have talked several times about refiners with my broker, especially the lack of expanding US refining capacity...for a couple of decades.

     

    I agree. Refiners ought to do well.

     

    The shipment of oil and natural gas to Japan is something I need to look into further, as I believe Japan is paying three times for nat gas as to what it's selling for in the US. But! I believe US energy policy has not yet allowed nat gas to be shipped out of the country -- need verification on this!

     

    Just to let you know, our pal Freya is the one who enlightened me to CVRR. You'll notice in trip's list above that CVRR is a refiner.

     

    I had my broker put CVRR on his radar, and suggested to him that I may dip a toe on any pullback.
    18 Jun 2013, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Thanks. NG is 3-4 times more expensive all over the world. Their price out there is tied to energy content of oil and, therefore price. Ratios from the past in the U.S. of MMCf:bbl of oil ran from 6:1 to 12:1 depending on time-frame examined, IIRC.

     

    48 applications for construction of LNG liquifaction plants, last I checked, have been filed, but only a couple approved so far - notably Sabine Pass which is currently an import terminal. It wants to be a "turnaround" exporter - buy, liquify and store while price is low (seasonally?) and then re-export when price is high. If the infrastructure can get U.S. NG to them, I guess they could liquify and export our NG as well.

     

    New plants are very expensive, take several years to construct, are a net energy loss operation and will serve to drive local prices higher if any substantial portion of the applications are approved.

     

    I've read that 10%-15% would probably do little harm here, but more than that drives local price up, which affects our manufacturers who use NG to make many products, both as an energy component and as feedstock (plastics, e.g.).

     

    Since we have a penchant for shooting ourselves in the foot, I expect that that we'll export ourselves into poverty.

     

    ISTR an interview by a local producer that pointed out that using locally creates 25(?) times the number of jobs as exporting.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jun 2013, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... Go dig around in material related to (EPD) & (http://bit.ly/rmHAbP) to find that NatGas is being shipped out. Small amounts from Beaumont started in March of this year . The capacity will start showing in 2015 to 2017. Import terminals will finish being turned around in this time frame with 2 new ones included.

     

    I really don't know where you got the idea that US refining capacity hasn't been expanding for decades because it has been by significant amounts. Yea, no totally new ones have been built but we don't need them. At utilization in the mid 80% range the refineries we have can service the country and export about half again the amount. In the next 3 years there is going to be a worldwide glut of overcapacity in the refining space when the 3 new ones come up & other expansions are complete.

     

    Thing to remember is Oil & Gas are world commodities and don't recognize countries for market boundary. US oil or Canadian Oil or wherever are quaint relics of thought. Energy belongs to the Corporations not nations. The exception is those nations that wisely have kept their state owned & operations. Even then most of those are managed by "Big Oil".
    18 Jun 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    DRich: Correction. I should have written that there hasn't been any "new" refiners for two decades. Yes, capacity has increased, but not nearly as fast as production.

     

    Thanks for the research tips!
    18 Jun 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Mayscribe ... I don't keep up with the East Coast & only glance at the West, but here in Texas between Houston & Corpus Christi there has been 9M bbl/day in oil equivalent capacity added in the past 5 years. A few million bbl/day has been added out West and I remember Jersey has added but I believe that was geared more toward polymers than transportation fuel even as they shutdown their 1940-50's relics.
    18 Jun 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I am looking at high yields in the oil/energy patch because I believe we will be seeing "an event" soon, either a Flash Rotation, or a response to a geopolitical crisis. I do not intend to enter any positions right away, and should the various potential triggers ease off or heal, I may enter at the "no external problems" numbers I mention above.

     

    The idea would be to try to move quickly (in the event of an easing of geopolitical tensions) to take advantage of oversold stocks with high yields to offer some protection even should the share price not recover.

     

    I have an affinity for companies that are in the energy services rather than direct producers, ie, pipelines, refiners, tankers, etc. I suppose this goes back to my study of the history of various gold rush periods, where the guys selling the shovels and blue jeans made millions, while most of the miners went bust.
    18 Jun 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Funny. I write a Stock Talk about LINE, and within minutes, SA has an item about LINE up on Market Watch, and then I get booted off the front page. Hilarious.

     

    Up 3.64% today, following an announcement by LINE's top holder, Omega Advisors, of $200M in shares, that they were "comfortable" with their ownership.

     

    I'm still not completely comfortable that this bear raid is over. The blue lights are shining brightly on LINE, as Jim Cramer bashes Baron's and Hedgeye, and then Baron's and Hedgeye bash back.

     

    Ladies and gentlemen...I have a drama queen on my hands!

     

    http://bit.ly/10uAWEM
    18 Jun 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I would consider buying now (for those very reasons) except I am uncomfortable with placing any faith in the SEC standing firm on the idea that they can buy an oil producer and distribute profits tax free...

     

    What would be the effect on LINE of a SEC reversal on Berry Pet.?
    18 Jun 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    With Baron's and Hedgeye on the attack, Cramer retaliating, articles popping up all over the place, LINE has more layers, planes, nooks and crannies of mixed signals than any stock I can recently recall.

     

    I'm taking the cue from the insiders, as they en total have purchased 40,000 shares since the beginning of this limelight rift.

     

    Most certainly, the directors and officers would not be buying LINE this month if they felt the BRY deal was going to fall through next month.

     

    All-in-all, looking back three or four weeks, LINE has been far more gut wrenching than I had anticipated.

     

    If the SEC stops the BRY acquisition, it would likely damage both share price and the yield. However, if the deal goes through, the CEO has already talked about raising the dividend, and then paying it out monthly.

     

    The stock could pop quickly to $35 to $37.

     

    I peeled back 101 shares at $31.62 today in my gamer account, the price right around where I bought them, for safety's sake.
    18 Jun 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Trip: This LINE article just hit my Hotmail account.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    18 Jun 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (176) | Send Message
     
    Per the article, LINE is 100% hedged through 2016 - unlike the majority of its peers. If HTL's "COT Data Suggests Oil's Fall Is Coming" is right, there is an interesting dynamic here - especially if it can hedge BRY's assets as well prior to a fall.
    18 Jun 2013, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Yes. And a key comment regarded the dividends shifting to Monthly (July 10 is mentioned). The idea that the short attackers will want to start paying for dividends seems unlikely, so yes, it would make sense that this will settle down by then.
    18 Jun 2013, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Just ran some background on the Berry deal, it still has to be authorized by the Berry stockholders... Yep, that makes sense, the raid is targeting LINE to influence the Berry stockholders to NOT vote in the deal, or to make the deal harder to conclude with a weaker LINE stock...

     

    Its a raid, no doubt about it, and the Berry Pet. acquisition is the sensitive spot.

     

    Wild, Maya, simply wild.
    18 Jun 2013, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, trip. Simply wild...

     

    Reminds me of the great ole tune by Black Sabbath: Paranoid

     

    http://binged.it/1017yDJ
    18 Jun 2013, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    mds and trip: Here's an excellent video describing the present LINE "circular" situation, and parallels what I wrote above as a classic case of a bear raid on a mostly retail-owned stock, with a high yielding, potentially suspect dividend. I liked the video especially because the interviewee talks about this as a learning experience...ahh...of which I have learned a lot...about my sphincter... I was darned close to packing it in today ;-)

     

    http://bit.ly/13RgVq0
    18 Jun 2013, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    (CYTK) up 29.45% today with another 8% after hours.
    18 Jun 2013, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Any idea why?

     

    It traded 10x the average volume today.

     

    The company is touting phase II early results, but this is hardly new news, unless insiders have leaked something phenomenal.

     

    http://bit.ly/12Udyly
    18 Jun 2013, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    (AMGN) up 5+% last two days-
    Re: (CYTK) Possibly something new with Amgen? I can't find anything. Started moving on Thursday.
    19 Jun 2013, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Lots of recent news for CYTK... AMGN:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Also, joining the Russell Index...

     

    Also, presenting at a major conference (though why this alone would do this pop is doubtful)...

     

    The Motley Fools recently called for lightening up on this high flying stock, and I would tend to do this as well...
    19 Jun 2013, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Trip-

     

    Good advice- see my action which follows and my response to Maya.

     

    WT
    19 Jun 2013, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    LINE so far today? Up 7.06%. Up $2.33

     

    Gamer account now almost $900 in the green. Brokerage account still needs another 40 cents or so to break even, where I have 5X more shares.

     

    PHEW! (almost)

     

    Bought Royal Bank of Scotland preferred today after my Constellation Energy bond was paid off. Paying 7.2%. Ticker is RBS-BB (IIRC). Cramer, for whatever it's worth, likes the RBS common.

     

    Edit: LINE now up 7.57% Weeeeehoooo!
    19 Jun 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2728) | Send Message
     
    For you China watchers. Latest Mauldin "outside the box" article.

     

    http://bit.ly/OWgWzX
    19 Jun 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Vindicated...

     

    "I believe that Japan is forcing their hand with its own massive quantitative easing. China may have the easiest answer of all the major global trading countries, however. All they have to do is gradually float their currency. As Charles Dumas noted, they have $4 trillion in savings that will look for a home outside of China. A floating currency will weaken the renminbi against major world currencies and help their export businesses."

     

    Precisely what I expect them to do.
    19 Jun 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Hillbilly, good article. Thanks.
    19 Jun 2013, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Obama Preparing Big Effort to Curb Climate Change

     

    http://nyti.ms/11M9Rqz
    19 Jun 2013, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Funny story I heard at a science fiction convention about Global Warming.

     

    When CERN was building their Large Hadron Collider, a very large, circular hole was dug for the purpose. As the story goes, a woebegone reporter was dispatched by his editor to interview the engineers and scientists constructing the huge complex. When he got there, he asked one of the scientists what the big hole was for.

     

    The scientist, possibly detecting a chance to pull the reporter's leg a little and get the interview off to a relaxed start, told him, with a very serious face: "Its where we will put the super-collider thermostat".

     

    "Yes," replied the reporter, hurriedly making notes on his pad, "...and what work will that do?"

     

    "Well," said the scientist, surprised that the initial joke had not penetrated yet, "You're heard of Global Warming haven't you?"

     

    "Yes, of course I have," replied the reporter, a little huffy.

     

    "This will be the solution, we have invented a very large thermostat which will allow us to control the Earth's temperature".

     

    The story goes that only because one of the engineers standing nearby took pity on the reporter was he spared the embarrassment of explaining to his boss how he came by the notion that CERN was inserting a gigantic thermostat into a large hole in the Earth.
    19 Jun 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Maybe I should be selling my doubleguns brew of colloidal silver and GSE. Seems researchers have discovered adding silver to antibiotics increases their effectiveness. Duh.... silver is another antibiotic so now there are double dosing so to speak. Maybe I should send them a bottle.

     

    http://fxn.ws/12L8Wg5
    19 Jun 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Couldn't hurt. Mouch! Good Joke Trip.
    19 Jun 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    (CYTK) limit hit at $1.85, $.07 off the high, down to $1.82. I'm happy w/30% in four days. (http://bit.ly/UiWhK3) was up to $8 before the 'bots hit and knocked it back to $7- now at $7.32. I guess it's all in the timing as to whether you beat the computer triggers. Just don't be too greedy.

     

    Windwood Trader
    19 Jun 2013, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Congrats, WT. Hopefully it was less nerve wracking than owning LINE for the past couple of weeks. I surely don't feel out of the woods, yet, but tomorrow I should pull even, maybe a little ahead on this month and a half long trade.

     

    We all should come up with a new game titled "Beat The Bots!"
    19 Jun 2013, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    >Maya

     

    Thanks for the flowers.

     

    Re: (CYTK) I just couldn't believe the big pop over 30% in one day with no discernable reason. I think I got lucky and bailed at the right time. In after hours it is over $1.90 though. Might jump back in on a pullback.

     

    I am on the road and can't access my trading platform so no
    sophisticated conclusions available.

     

    WT
    19 Jun 2013, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    RE: (CYTK)

     

    Well- Here's the rest of the story as Paul Harvey used to say-
    CYTK went from my sale price of $1.85 and 30% profit up to $2.20 and back down to $1.84 last week. Here I'm thinking- might be a real opportunity here.
    After thinking about it I decide not. Just as well no substantial action up to 24 June- re-trace up to $2.00
    On 24 June the price closed around $2.00.

     

    This morning, 25 June my router quits before I even get on line. Replace with a spare and fire up at 10:30, check my stock watch list, including CYTK.

     

    Whoa! This can't be accurate! CYTK trading at $11.88??????

     

    http://bit.ly/14VIIH9

     

    Yep- Just goes to show how really brilliant someone like me can be.

     

    A five bagger in one day- gone forever.

     

    WT
    25 Jun 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Holy cow, WT! I feel for ya.
    25 Jun 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    That was one expensive router.
    25 Jun 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    I saw the article about the CYTK alliance right off the bat after the router replacement and went to place an order-
    Just a leedle bit too late, I'm afraid. I now finally know what was up last week on the unexplained spike in price.

     

    Duh, I guess somebody knew about it?

     

    My two dogs now know what interplanetary swearing is!
    25 Jun 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    WT,

     

    Consider yourself lucky if you were trading this one, because you did not lose a 6-bagger, you got out at the right moment for nice gain.

     

    CYTK announced a 6:1 reverse split after the close yesterday afternoon, then this morning announced a partnership with another pinkie pharma, Astellas, to develop one of their pipeline compounds.

     

    http://bit.ly/11YJSwi

     

    I got the text from Schwab yesterday afternoon about the RS, before it hit the news, and said WTF!?

     

    I was up over 100% a couple of days ago as it popped to 2.20, but today I am only up 86% with the pullback.

     

    The RS was authorized last quarter at a board meeting, but not announced until they had some good news to announce to get uplisted out of OTC status. They needed the RS to lower share count so they could continue funding their development by future dilutions, and to get onto NASDAQ.

     

    CYTK is still an excellent long-term play in terms of the quality of novel drugs in pipeline, but the actual value dropped today slightly (2.6%) from yesterday after the RS, as one would expect when penny stocks do this.

     

    You can watch for further pullback in the downdrafting market to get back in, and then take a profit on news later in the year as they announce results on the heart failure drug P3 study.
    25 Jun 2013, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Minor correction, CYTK was already on nasdaq (I was having a pre-senior moment, confusing it with (AHRO.OB)), but the share price was too low for many institutional investors. The RS gets them deeper into that game.

     

    Funny quirk on google finance today, saying that CYTK is 343% institutionally owned. Schwab states they are 55% institutional.
    25 Jun 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    >SM-

     

    Thanks for the insight-

     

    Sounds like a plan to wait for the inevitable slide back.

     

    I rarely complain too loudly when I can book a profit and that is what I remember best!
    {:-)}
    28 Jun 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Did everyone see this parnell article? I think it's worth reading. Meanwhile, the Asian markets fell lots tonight, and gold is down $30 an ounce. it may be time for me to stop selling puts on retailers and pharma and sell them on the short etf's and metals markets instead.

     

    http://bit.ly/11NREJi
    20 Jun 2013, 03:50 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Its looking like tapering is gonna create panic. Markets tanking this morning some more. This could create panic. I think its time to go to cash and buy more VIX.
    20 Jun 2013, 06:40 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    VIX up 21% yesterday.
    21 Jun 2013, 06:57 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    Did read it OG and Eric is very articulate as usual.

     

    I don't fully agree with the outcome of ceasing the QEIII though. I think the major effect will be psyched up markets without substantive reason other than to provide an income stream to the media and the investment houses that thrive on volatility.

     

    Since the money is not being lent now I see little economic impact other than roiling the markets in ceasing the process. Brokerage houses make money then, not when things are going smoothly. It is not like 2011 as Eric's charts depict.

     

    MHO.

     

    WT
    25 Jun 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Bloomberg article on that middle east corona virus that actually mentions NVAX. Confession: still long NVAX and waiting patiently.
    http://bloom.bg/16iqBdn
    20 Jun 2013, 04:16 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    I have not been watching the news closely but I just heard on Fox business that Benny said yesterday that he would taper this year and end next year. Thats a lot bigger adjustment than I was expecting. Now I see why there is panic beginning to show in this market.
    20 Jun 2013, 07:00 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    This sums up the liquidation effect from Benny.

     

    http://bit.ly/121XnPG
    20 Jun 2013, 07:10 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    >DG

     

    Re: BB

     

    I think it's what most folks expected it's just hearing him say the words that spooked everyone.
    Maybe the index puts I bought in March will finally grow legs-

     

    WT
    20 Jun 2013, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Not sure where this market ends with this issue now but I expect the volatility to increase.
    20 Jun 2013, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    What he actually said is they'd taper ( they are buying at the astounding rate of $85+/- Bil a month) IF
    unemployment goes down to 7%.
    Their unemployment measurement is over 7.5%.
    Also, Bernanke's term expires at the end of January. Speculation is that Janet Yellin' is going to be appointed. Obama made some comment that Bernanke has been in the position far longer than he wanted to be or expected to be--sounds like Bernanke may be on his way out.
    silver breached $20 an ounce and is back into the teens.
    It's starting to look good again to me.
    20 Jun 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    If they want to improve unemployment numbers the congress should repeal obamacare so small businesses could start hiring again.
    That's a big part of this nightmare, imo.
    20 Jun 2013, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    A perfect example of the rising costs of production along with the dropping yields from existing mines: http://bit.ly/11ATuhK

     

    The headroom between dramatically increasing costs and dropping market prices are now playing a game of chicken that will culminate with closed mines very soon (I believe even $19 silver is unsustainable even midterm except for by-product silver production at many mines, and that is threatened by the dropping gold price as well).

     

    Given that silver has a very large and stable industrial/consumer demand (which will only go up as the price drops), the numbers are headed for a significant clash.

     

    This down spike is likely to be steep, insane, and end abruptly with a dizzying up cycle. Picking a bottom based on fundamentals or TA is a difficult chore... This is all in the hands of the manipulators, and we could see physical delivery problems unlike anything seen before.

     

    First thing to look for will be more miners starting to emulate those selling finished goods direct to the public. The less efficient operations will simply enter mothballs, and its always easier to stop an operation than to start it up again. Should prices persist at low levels, even the better mines will begin to close down, though with physical inventories already in trouble, its difficult to foresee this situation persisting very long.

     

    As this supply leaves the supply chain supporting the major vault operators and manipulators, the pressure on paper silver ETFs will become acute.

     

    Silver will NOT behave like gold, for it has far less physical inventory available for delivery vs global demand (and demand WILL go up as the price drops).

     

    Unfortunately, it will be difficult to pick miners that will win this battle, since they will tend to lose both ways. Only after markets regularize and prices stabilize at levels which will allow them to operate at a profit (and absorb both the losses derived from the event, and the costs to reopen shuttered mines) will miners recover.

     

    The shiny metal itself is the primary investment in this case, IMO.
    20 Jun 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    More about silver production costs:

     

    http://bit.ly/195PSNb

     

    The bottom line is that this very high quality mine needs about $30/oz to BREAK EVEN this year. Imagine what their financial statements will look like next quarter...

     

    And that's a Mexican mine, not one located in a high cost location.

     

    LOL, it is funny to look at the funky "cash cost" numbers various "objective" (LOL again) groups publish. I believe the most recent estimate this year for the industry is somewhere just over $9 per ounce. That number is (obviously) pure fiction. The real rule of thumb would be about 3 times that amount, with anything less than the mid-$20's being a danger zone.
    20 Jun 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Good number projection for the largest and one of the most efficient silver producers. Note that tax advantages enabled them to probably break even at only $21/oz.

     

    Going forward, their prospects look steadily weaker.
    20 Jun 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    OG I think your right about the unemployment numbers. Here is what Benny said:

     

    "The committee currently anticipates that it will be appropriate to moderate the monthly pace of purchases later this year, and if the subsequent data remain broadly aligned with our current expectations for the economy, we will continue to reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps through the first half of next year, ending purchases around mid-year," Bernanke said.

     

    He states that IF THE SUBSEQUENT DATA remain broadly aligned....I think that would be the unemployment rate you mentioned.

     

    It is still causing a panic however since folks assume the data will be there.
    20 Jun 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (8058) | Send Message
     
    Remember when the original UE was 6.5%?
    20 Jun 2013, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    I can't get the link to work, but go to bloomberg and watch bill gross comment via a video interview on bloomberg news (which you can find in top videos on that website.) the interview is 7+ minutes long and is a really good assessment of what these announcements really mean.
    He says Bernanke is driving the economy--but "he's driving in a fog!"
    He called Janet Yellen a dove and Bernanke's "Siamese Twin."
    It's a good and honest interview imo.
    20 Jun 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    >DG

     

    VIX definitely surging.
    21 Jun 2013, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Its highly ironic that the bogus unemployment numbers are now being used as a platinum parachute by Bernanke. I can imagine the consternation at the White House, where they are now hoisted on their own fake employment statistics.

     

    Let's see, should they suddenly alter the statistical massaging of employment numbers to keep the QE coming, or...

     

    Accelerate the Bernank's retirement plans to get their best girl in the slot?

     

    Yeah, that's the ticket. Gauging from the restiveness of some of the Board members, they better hurry.
    21 Jun 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Seems they are getting "hoisted on their own Petard".

     

    So what is a petard?

     

    The "petard" was actually a crude kind of bomb that was used in the old days by invading armies. Soldiers used to place these bell shaped bombs near the walls/gates and then light the slow burning fuse that was attached to them. Sometimes, however, the fuse burnt much more quickly than expected, and in the process blew up not only the wall/gate, but also the man who was lighting the bomb. The soldier was lifted off or hoisted off his feet by the exploding bomb.
    21 Jun 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    In the case of the current administration, one might spell it differently: "hoisted on their own retards."
    21 Jun 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): "Capstone Receives First Order in Slovenia for Two C200s From Regional Hospital"

     

    http://bit.ly/14LYi89;highlight=

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2728) | Send Message
     
    If only there were a 15% profit margin on each sale!
    20 Jun 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Triple you just described the ideal circumstances for selling puts against the silver short side of an etf or etn or the miners themselves collectively in an etf, and then reversing course and selling puts against the long side when you see it bottom out. Wash, rinse, repeat ad infinitum. One need not hold the underlying securities.
    20 Jun 2013, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    OyGee and Hard: I think you'll both get a kick out of reading about Jim Cramer's battle for Linn Energy versus the Baron's hired assassin Hedgeye, the two or more hedge funds that are shorting Linn, conspiring with all there might and baseless tactics to prevent the Berry Petroleum deal from going through, and ESPECIALLY his rant toward the trolls using various aliases on his Twitter account.

     

    Don't we know what that is like!

     

    http://bit.ly/1c0fN4U

     

    BTW: The only stock I own that's up today is LINE :-)
    20 Jun 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Good article Maya!

     

    In the long run, I think he'll whup 'em. He has a multiple pulpits he can use to preach his gospel and present true facts for folks to consider. He can have knowledgeable guests on. If he pulls out his complete arsenal, I believe they'll be decimated.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun 2013, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    >MAYA

     

    Re: Cramer on (LINE)
    The article sort of makes the noisy guy my hero- At least for a while.
    Not quite sure how to play it. Is it volatile enough to do a PUT/CALL spread? I did that a few weeks ago on (LINE) and ended up with a very small profit- 4% on a sizable investment held over two weeks.
    Maybe way out CALLs may be in order.
    You can buy $34s of January 2014 for $2.45 right now,

     

    http://on.mktw.net/199...

     

    Or maybe ask an expert like Options Girl?

     

    What do you think, OG?

     

    Windwood Trader
    21 Jun 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    4% earned over two weeks is damn fine, WT--if you could do that every two weeks you'd be sittin' pretty. I'm not an expert and don't have any illusions about that--never said otherwise. Good luck, whatever you decide.
    21 Jun 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    >OG

     

    Thanks for the comment. I neglected to mention that my other trades resulted in a net loss of 3-1/2%.

     

    {;-)}

     

    WT
    21 Jun 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    Re: (LINE)

     

    Bought October $34 calls at $2.25.

     

    I believe Cramer will beat the hedges.
    21 Jun 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    WT: Having Cramer on our "team" is like bringing in Mohamed Ali to fight the heavy weight class for a high school boxing team.

     

    This whole Baron's/Hedgeye/Hedgies versus Cramer, Cooperman, Raymond James mess has been as compelling as it has been harrowing. But...I think your calls will work out nicely.

     

    21 Jun 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    For those who may not think that there is someone pulling the strings behind the curtains, even the Presidents strings.

     

    Retired high-level CIA analyst Ray McGovern – the top CIA briefer to numerous presidents – said this a few weeks ago on a radio program:

     

    And I know from a good friend who was there when it happened, that at a small dinner with progressive supporters – after these progressive supporters were banging on Obama before the election, “Why don’t you do the things we thought you stood for?” Obama turned sharply and said, “Don’t you remember what happened to Martin Luther King Jr.?” That’s a quote, and that’s a very revealing quote.

     

    Must get the copper colander off its beginning to glow red and the heat is killing me. Full story at the link below. DAMN MY HAIRS ON FIRE!!!!

     

    http://bit.ly/11RBqQn
    21 Jun 2013, 07:35 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Proof that Obama is insane. A picture is worth a thousand words. /s

     

    The article is pretty good too!! Someone is pulling really hard on those strings.

     

    http://bit.ly/13XOzKI
    21 Jun 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    >DG

     

    That is an extremely disturbing piece. Suspicions confirmed stuff for sure.

     

    Thanks for posting it- I think.

     

    WT
    21 Jun 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2728) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, but the

     

    http://bit.ly/13XOzKI

     

    article doesn't pass the "giggle test" for me. My take is that the DC pols are trying to dilute the right wingers anti-Syrian frothing by advertising a small amount of aid to the Syrian "rebels", whoever they might be. Who knows where the arms might end up in 6 months. The POTUS most likely doesn't. Which is why there won't be much real military hardware supplied.

     

    As for the infamous No Fly zone; I doubt it will happen in any effective form. Just more politically applied deodorant on the Syrian civil war stink. If the sheeple can't smell it, it doesn't exist.

     

    If only the DC crats could stop those pesky independent reporters from spouting war death numbers! Of course it does make a great excuse for spending another 20 billion on high tech arms with the US arms merchants. Good for the economy, ya know!

     

    I save my conspiracy thoughts for the Big Boys (Galactic Squid and cohorts) and their revolving DC insiders. Market manipulation is where the Silver Hairnet gets a workout for me. Now, if some orchestrated Middle East news causes a 3 day market panic, well, wouldn't that be lovely? ;-)
    23 Jun 2013, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    This is shocking. "ETF Losses Today Were Far Beyond What The Most Sophisticated Risk Models Could Have Predicated"

     

    http://bit.ly/1255ZVU

     

    NOTED, "it could translate into further selling on Friday or early next week."
    21 Jun 2013, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I was stunned when I read that Guns... That selloff was not that large yet they were required to stop redemptions!? That should be a huge red flag for ETF investors.
    21 Jun 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    DG, read the article next to the one you referenced, on Chinese Banks going bust.
    21 Jun 2013, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    I did, frightening. I sure would have liked to get in on that over night shibor rate of 25%. Fear must be really bad to pay that. Maybe they shoot bankers or something like that in China.

     

    First one to default gets shot!!!! That will fix the problem.
    21 Jun 2013, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Let me add to that. When you might get shot, paying 25% seems.....well, cheap actually!!
    21 Jun 2013, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Afraid of the Tapir? Humorous.

     

    http://bit.ly/1c3Awoy
    21 Jun 2013, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    Re: Snowden-

     

    The rubber is about to meet the road.

     

    http://bit.ly/171iLG0
    23 Jun 2013, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Ack! Yellow alert! Second quarter preannouncements among the most negative on record. 93 of 116 preannouncements from the S&P 500 coming in as negative. This is the worst S&P negative to positive preannouncement ratio since the first quarter of 2001:

     

    http://bit.ly/14RCSq0
    23 Jun 2013, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Maya: I do believe most here have been predictng that this year would stink (anticipating especially second half?)?

     

    So I don't think we are all that surprised?

     

    HardToLove
    23 Jun 2013, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    In our new crony capitalist/socialist global system, are the old fashioned customs like pre-announcements really to be trusted anymore? For that matter, LOL, how about the actual "announcements"?

     

    Will we start to see a winnowing of the herd, ie, the winning cronies clumping together with positive numbers, while the bulk of the herd (excluded from the crony support and very aware of the problem) takes the hit?

     

    If one reviews the positive pre-announcements, and finds that it is populated with companies close to the current powers in Washington (and Brussels and Beijing, etc), should we be surprised?
    23 Jun 2013, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    This sell-off has some odd elements buried in there...

     

    Baby with bathwater: BDC's, which stand to bring in more profits if interest rates go up, so why the bath for them? Puzzling. This might be an opportunity here... Or maybe its a tell that rates are NOT going up, with BDC's usually attracting a more sophisticated investor class?

     

    Treasury finally moving out from behind the Fed's skirts? Last time I checked, loads of debt with durations under 5 years... I have been expecting a strong move of some kind to shift more of the debt out to the longer dates, 10 years and up. I keep thinking this equation includes the EU support... This becomes a potential crisis if, indeed, interest rates are headed up. Government is very accustomed to very low interest rate costs... They can't have it both ways...

     

    I expect the Fed to keep doing the QE thing for the rest of the year, and longer. As for interest rates, there are those pledges made by the Fed to keep them low through 2014 and beyond. This market reaction is hysterical, and I do NOT mean "funny".

     

    I have been expecting something on the order of a 5% correction to come about, well, now. This one has some very strange drivers, and the Fed trigger is rather, er, sloppy, but I guess it will do.

     

    I think we see buying opportunities in scattered corners of the market this coming week. And more articles that explain the sorts of conditions (ie, not what we have now or are likely to see in the immediate future) that would lead the Fed to start to stop QE and raise rates.
    23 Jun 2013, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Ever since I read the Wells May MLP Outlook, with GNP slowing to 1% the second half, I knew this summer/fall was going to be rough sailing. But the worst since 2001?

     

    Futures not good this morning; Hong Kong down 2.22%, Shanghai down 5.3%. Doc copper lowest in three years....
    24 Jun 2013, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    Re: (LINE)
    Cramer has LINE as one of his picks in the 6/21 Mad Money, along w/Berry.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    24 Jun 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Long EEV.
    http://bit.ly/11YoFU1

     

    Read ZH today, particularly on China crashing.
    24 Jun 2013, 06:25 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    OG>

     

    Thanks for the QE/Barclays link-

     

    I'm not at all sure that I buy into that rather alarmist Barclay's piece though. I'm sure a lot of QE money did end up in foreign coffers and investments but for the most part the QE bucks are still in the mattresses of the FatCat Banksters. Those folks for the most part are holding onto the cash in order to lend it out at higher rates when the time comes.

     

    To be sure the markets will react strongly when the QE stops but I really pause at the logic that severe real economic harm will be the result. I think BB and crew are finally realizing that the rebuilding saga and unemployment reduction hasn't benefited all that much from the QE program, rather than from more normal albeit extremely slow growth based upon historical standards.
    24 Jun 2013, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    OyGee: Great call with EEV. It's up 3.92% today.

     

    I could broil up some thick steaks on the finviz.com heat map today.
    24 Jun 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    EEV makes sense today, imo.
    Hear Dr. Gloom and Doom:
    http://bloom.bg/12kXf9P
    24 Jun 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    Doom & Gloom

     

    http://bloom.bg/12kXf9P

     

    Gold and treasuries-
    Interesting combo-
    24 Jun 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Wind: LINE futures taking share price over $34 pre-market. Read that Cramer pumped LINE again on Mad Money.
    24 Jun 2013, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    Maya-
    Thanks-
    I just posted the Cramer link at 9:25-
    Looks good!
    24 Jun 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    >MAYA_

     

    I think that it would be very considerate of (LINE) to go to $40+ tomorrow- I would be happy, not sad.
    25 Jun 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Wind: I believe this is the first time I have ever bought a high yielder with the idea to trade it; to not own it long term.

     

    When the Berry deal goes through in July, I will be cutting my position in half somewhere between $40 and $42, and use the profits to possibly buy...you guessed it, Prospect Capital. But I may end up getting some CVRR.

     

    $40 tomorrow? Yeah, that would be nice, but I'll take that price in July.
    25 Jun 2013, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    >MAYA-
    Yeah, Prospect is like an annuity with the income already established. I've had it almost two years now. Im not familiar w/CVRR. I'll have to check it out. I regret having to sell (PSE) a month or so back but I didn't have enough equity in my taxable account to keep the excercised calls- Had to sell. Price right now about a dollar more than I got on the sale.
    25 Jun 2013, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Trip: I recall you held a tad of interest in Breitburn Energy (yield 10.6%).

     

    BreitBurn Energy to acquire Oklahoma assets from Whiting for $860M:

     

    http://yhoo.it/1aHrwrg

     

    BBEP is up 2.46% pre-market.
    24 Jun 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Yesterday, when the $860M Breitburn deal was announced, the stock plummeted down to $16.80 at the open, then recuperated to $17.37 by the close. Today, it appears the deal is better understood, and that this acquisition will allow Brietburn to increase disbursements by 5% annually going forward.

     

    Stock is up 4.84% as I'm writing this, to $18.20. Yielding 10.6%.

     

    Good Fool article on the deal, with ramifications:

     

    http://bit.ly/1ciPTJP
    25 Jun 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    Sold SPX 1580 August 17 PUTS @$53.80 Pd $29.00
    Sold (FM) Stopped out at $29.00 Pd $31.00

     

    I need more of the first variety and less of the second.
    24 Jun 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    Bot (LINE) $33 CALL 10/2013 @ $2.40

     

    LINE at $32.79
    24 Jun 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    Bot (TCAP) $25 CALL 12/2013 @$2.20

     

    TCAP @ $26.14
    24 Jun 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I like the LINE call, WT, but TCAP has bitten me in the past. Best of luck with BOTH!
    24 Jun 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    >trip-

     

    Thanks for the good wishes.
    I have a series of CALLS on both. Did a straddle on LINE and now have the Calls after covering on the PUT that gave me a 10% for two days.
    The TCAP calls are slippery for sure. The $30s are still under water while the $25s are close to even. The $30s run to 9/2013 and the $25s to December. One day on the wrong side of good timing by me on the $30s!

     

    The LINE CALLs go to September.

     

    The LINE $33s are up 10% while the $34s are down around 9%

     

    I figure some others on QC could get some info from my feats and foibles!

     

    Windwood Trader
    24 Jun 2013, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    A correction-
    The (LINE) calls run into October, not September.
    WT
    24 Jun 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    One of the easiest/obvious predictions I have ever made:

     

    Restaurant franchisees are hiring more and it could have more to do with the Affordable Care Act...
    Monday, June 24, 2:04 PM ET
    Restaurant franchisees are hiring more and it could have more to do with the Affordable Care Act than actual demand, according to analysts. Under the fine print of the health care reform bill, a business can avoid paying health care insurance if their employees on average work less than 30 hours a week. Is an army of part-time workers about to invade the restaurant business (CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DNKN, DPZ, DRI, EAT, JACK, MCD, PNRA, RRGB, RT, SONC, WEN, BWLD, THI, BDL, NATH, BKW, PZZA, TXRH, DENN, KKD, BBRG, DFRG, BOBE, RUTH, IRG, DIN) to help allay ACA costs?
    24 Jun 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Greetings. That's been going on for awhile. YUM brands and several others started that push months ago. http://yhoo.it/13AudXm I remember discussing how we might get some returns on this including which TEMP agencies would profit most. IIRC we were looking at Manpower (MAN) as one of the likely beneficiaries. Does anyone else recall more detail. It might be time to revisit this
    24 Jun 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Bob: Greetings back atcha'. 20 years or more ago, I was doing the same "trick" with my restaurants; due to PA law, that if an employee worked over 30 hours per week, for so many weeks in a row, I can't recall exactly the number, but then the employer had to offer some form of health insurance.

     

    It was a BIG deal when I had one of my managers "let" an employee work full time. Another trick was to have employees split time between two restaurants, each within walking distance, each separately incorporated. It was what I had to do to stay alive, to keep employing people, pay the bills, and the loans, stay competitively priced, etc. I wasn't the only one doing this, as in downtown Pittsburgh, there are/were 4 McDonald's, 3 Wendy's, several Subways, and they were doing the same.
    24 Jun 2013, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    Maya- I believe that WallyWorld does a variation of this nationwide. Only certain EEs are "permitted" as you say to work full time. They get benefits. The rest- the vast majority don't meet the threshold for benefit coverage. SOL.

     

    WT
    24 Jun 2013, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Given that I now expect the WH to quietly hope (hopehopehope) for worse unemployment numbers to avert the Fed pulling the IV out of the markets and housing "recovery"...

     

    This shift to a 100% temp American workforce in all non-government and non-union workforces is a gift.

     

    By the time the Demicans and Republicrats finish squabbling over the details, Bernanke will be out of a job, the WH's best girl will be in, and the "interest problem" will be handled again (until the next time, which doubtless will occur early in the next administration's term of office).

     

    I have been looking for signs of a burgeoning black and grey market (cash is king) supplanting the wreckage of what used to be our capitalistic economy.... And I see them, my friends.

     

    LOL, the Republicrats are currently about to try to convince us that they can be trusted to fashion a workable solution to the illegal immigration problem with their colleagues the Demicans. This will be high comedy, of course, but you have to wonder if any of them realize that an economy composed primarily of people earning third world wages (paid under the table in cash) chasing 5 or 6 jobs at a time probably NEED those illegals to help teach them how to screw the system.

     

    The illegals may discover that they DO possess valuable skill sets after all.
    24 Jun 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    Right on, Trip-
    You don't hear McDonalds, Wendys, etal complaining about loosely monitored immigration. If it weren't for them, they couldn't stay in business.
    24 Jun 2013, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Many do not recall that the last time we had amnesty Reagan was President so do not expect any solutions from the republicrates they will simply look for this as a way to funnel money to some of their campaign contributors (persons paying the bribes). Both sides want to get something out of this bill for them. D's get happy present voters and future voters, R's get money for paybacks of bribes. How could they not pass this. Lok at the money getting spread around. YOUR MONEY!!!

     

    South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham wants more visas for the meat industry, a major employer in his state. Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) pushed for special treatment for Irish workers; his state is home to a large population with Irish ancestry.

     

    Republican Sen. Marco Rubio sought help for the cruise-ship industry, a big business in his home state of Florida. And Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado wove in a boost for ski areas.

     

    EDITED: FORGOT THE LINK.

     

    http://on.wsj.com/18bSJ68
    24 Jun 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): Why those Texas boys in the O & G space love Capstone! :-))

     

    "Pioneer Natural Resources/EFS Midstream, Texas, United States"

     

    http://bit.ly/19ooJ8c

     

    Thanks to IPDrive at Investorvillage for the link.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jun 2013, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    (PSEC) gets a pump from Cramer-

     

    http://bit.ly/16wCBIk

     

    Also (KMP)

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    25 Jun 2013, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    (PSEC) sees substantial insider buying as well. http://onforb.es/1aKvDDb
    Disclaimer I have a long position in this stock.
    25 Jun 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    >RBF-

     

    I have held (PSEC) for a long time as well, and recommended to a few. Produces a stable income. Might be a candidate for some covered option writing.

     

    Up about 2.5% today

     

    Windwood Trader
    25 Jun 2013, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    I felt compelled to post this here. It has nothing to do with investing but is about one of our vets committing suicide, and his reasons for doing that in his included note.

     

    http://bit.ly/132RmEK
    25 Jun 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    doubleguns: Greetings. At the expense of sounding callous you well know the peculiar demands of asymmetrical warfare. We are engaged with an enemy who has no soul! They have no remorse when killing children for any reason. http://to.pbs.org/19p5JXm Or no reason. http://yhoo.it/19p5JXp This isn't a simple war and it's going to come here. http://bit.ly/19p5JXs
    25 Jun 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Fully agree it will come here. I do not think stating the facts are callous at all, its a sad reality. I think that the issues in that article simply point out that as a nation of people we are not the type of people that can kill children etc... without remorse. I do not know the specifics of his troubled soul just the generalizations but when you see broken and blown up people still struggling to breath or crawl away it leave to much of an image in ones mind. The horors seen, smelled, heard and possibly committed can never be erased no matter how many bottles of pills or alcohole one goes through.

     

    Yes Bob it is coming here and the vast majority of Americans are not prepared both physically, emotionally, logistically and frankly most are not capable or willing to do that. I think there is a very good reason for it too....I stated it once before and its covered in the book "The Harbinger". Every Christian in America should read that book.
    25 Jun 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Food for thought. Put some food in your pantry.

     

    http://bit.ly/132U3WK
    25 Jun 2013, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Court says the news does not have to report the truth. Kinda obvious by even the most casual observer I think.

     

    http://bit.ly/1aKxs2N
    25 Jun 2013, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Obama caught on open mic talking about the powers that be eliminating Ron Paul from the 2012 primary. More proof its not an R and D thing folks.

     

    http://bit.ly/17bqRMz
    25 Jun 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Next scandal to break is Leasing & Theft of 20,000 Tons of Allocated Gold. I have no idea if this is true or not but it is interesting to read.

     

    http://bit.ly/1aKB7Od
    25 Jun 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    For those who have looked at Joule Unlimited there are apparently more companies involved in this type of technology. Motly Fool did an article back in April on this and here is the article with the other companies and a list of the ones that are already public.

     

    http://bit.ly/15Cnqv7
    25 Jun 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    The motley fool mislabled Joule as a biomass producer, they are not. They do not use algae..

     

    Unlike fuels derived indirectly from algal or agricultural biomass, Joule’s solar platform derives fuels directly from sunlight and waste CO2. The company’s engineered biocatalysts produce ethanol or essential components of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel in a continuous process – free of the feedstock constraints and complex processing that hinder biofuels, and without diverting vital food crops to fuel production.
    25 Jun 2013, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Another planet in our solar system found it seems or its another sun. It is the size of Jupiter, believe it or not. Look at the photo at the 8 O:clock position. Hmmmmm Planet X or Nibiru comes to mind.

     

    http://bit.ly/12oeneZ
    25 Jun 2013, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    >DG-

     

    And here I go to the link to check out the punchline!
    25 Jun 2013, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    My take: Its not really there. Its an artifact created inside the imaging system, or added (by some hoaxer) somewhere downstream.
    25 Jun 2013, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    NEWS FLASH!!! It's a cloaked death star, and Darth Vader used the sun as a portal to come here to find his lost leader discovered in Chile, known as the "Anaconda Humanoid."

     

    http://on-msn.com/1228ogT
    25 Jun 2013, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    WT, no punch line. Its possibly true but.....I am always doubtful of planetary stuff till I hear about it from multiple sources. That was my reason for putting the comments about Nibiru and planet X in there.

     

    Of course Maya may have hit upon something. This new planet may be inhabited by 6 inch aliens planning an attack on us. Like a heard of Chihuahuas biting our ankles and eventually all of us ending up like Gulliver, tied to the ground. LOL
    26 Jun 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    Probably more like Hawaiian 8" centipedes that go under doors and those suckers hurt when they bite! They go after Chihuahuas for the fun of it.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    OK I have been looking for more info on the new planet and this is some of what I have found. Please do not read this stuff till you have your tin foil hats firmly in place and chin straps tight.

     

    I am still waiting for more info.

     

    http://exm.nr/18gb9Tr
    26 Jun 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    Looks like a posterior view of a bottle rocket in flight-
    26 Jun 2013, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    "DGC LLC will deploy US-manufactured microturbines as its building blocks and will be the largest distributed energy utility in the Russian Federation."

     

    From Forbes, might be good for Capstone (CPST) </deadpan>

     

    http://onforb.es/1387JB1

     

    HardToLove
    26 Jun 2013, 06:49 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    Gold down to $1,230.xx this morning. Yahoo blurb (http://yhoo.it/138pe45) suggests, "Immediate downside Gann levels to watch over the next couple of days are 1220 and 1207."

     

    Speculations on buy points anyone?
    26 Jun 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, Following the Extispicy tradition I was figuring I would look through my entrails once I finished puking them out to see if I could figure that question out.
    26 Jun 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    My view remains the same. At around $1200, ie, now, gold miners start to consider closing down less efficient mines, slowing down current projects, and shelving future projects. This is something which began over a month ago, to some fanfare at the time, and it is already in the works.

     

    What may surprise some folks will be the number and size of the mines closed, projects delayed, and plans abandoned.

     

    I believe it will be the largest companies who bail FIRST, while some of the smallest will hang on just because they have nothing else they can do. So we will see the share prices of some large miners hit early, just because they are quick to act, but then the savings from closing down unprofitable operations (it will quickly become obvious that they SHOULD have been closed down long ago) and cutting costs in their least successful ventures could actually end up improving their balance sheets!

     

    Loads of little guys will probably go bust, though. This is a small miner killer. With the big operators potentially sweeping up the roadkill, some of it really nice projects and potentially productive operations, they could again benefit from the process if they are nimble and foresighted.

     

    At some point the news cycle will savage the larger companies as they announce mine closures and project cancelations, but ironically right around that time is probably a good time to start buying their stock.

     

    Overall I expect the gold manipulation to have its day (more like 6 months) and then start to climb back toward price levels where producers can operate at a profit. Large quantities will change hands moving toward central banks and governments, while smaller dealers and individuals trading in the metal will get whacked (many already have been).

     

    I anticipate that major producer China will take this opportunity to finish their planned construction of a national Gold Cartel, in the process encouraging the small operators to sell out at a low price or just die on the vine. At the end of the process China will be producing slightly less gold than before, but with about 80% of the prior producers either absorbed by the Cartel members or driven out of business.

     

    This process will, when completed, mark an important potential inflection point.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Oh, meant to add that creating the Chinese gold cartel will doubtless create some panic sales of stockpiled gold. This happened with the REE Cartel, and created price distortions that have persisted for over a year. Its POSSIBLE that this factor is also influencing gold prices, though not with such powerful force as the REEs (after all, China has no such monopoly with gold as they enjoy with REEs, so logically the effect would be more muted and transitory).
    14 Jul 2013, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    :-) DG, maybe the better question to ask is, When? When will operating mines start shutting down?
    26 Jun 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    d-inv, If I knew for sure I would be on my yach (poor folks pronounce it that way) out selling the high seas. I do have an article that I think will help and I post it rather than blather on about my opinion because my opinion has been over run by chaos and thus I have been reduced to Extispicy predictions at best. Long term I feel confident but for now I have no clue. I have now simply locked the door to the vault and will add to it as the price continues to approach Lilliputian status knowing that a future Goliath is in there hiding or it simply pays out as the insurance policy when the dollar fails.

     

    I wish I could give you a better answer but I realize that there are many reasons for this to be manipulated. Look at India trying to manipulate their population from buying gold. So many things are impacting the price it is hard to keep up and we sound like a bunch of loons just talking about them all. I do not want folks to ACTUALLY THINK I do wear a copper colander!!!

     

    http://bit.ly/138ARbe
    26 Jun 2013, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to Trip, DG.
    26 Jun 2013, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    sailing the high seas. Jeeze, but maybe I could sell some to Benny of course so maybe it was a Freudian slip.
    26 Jun 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Here is an article on LINN energy talking about the debt they have taken on.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    26 Jun 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Forgot to mention it does not look good.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    "One of the ways high dividend-paying MLPs and non-static petroleum trusts try to break out of the downward spiral is to buy another company with lands and opportunities that can be exploited. Linn Energy is now part way through the process of buying Berry Petroleum (BRY). LINE management thinks this is a very good deal and that it is accretive.

     

    So far, I have confirmed that BRY is accretive to production. On the other hand, BRY has growing debt and no real reserve growth. LINE has promised to increase the dividend of the Berry shareholders about 1200%, from 32 cents to $3.85 ($3.08 for the 1.25 shares of LINE for each of their shares of BRY). It seems to me that Linn Energy has just significantly increased their dividend costs. I wonder whether LINE management of the BRY asset will likely increase production and reserves enough to justify the acquisition expense and the added liabilities. I hope to have a full value-added analysis completed within a few days.

     

    So far, it looks like a great deal for Berry shareholders."

     

    His logic is shaky in a few places, but the part where he talks about Berry (here at the end in a throwaway paragraph) is something where I see an agenda working...

     

    He points out that Berry is not really growing its reserve... No kidding. Linn is buying them because drilling and growing reserves is what they do. Berry pulled back from doing this sort of growth cycle because it did NOT fit their business plan. It is from differences like this that accretive synergies arise. If Berry had been aggressively developing reserves and spending loads of money doing so, it would be a different company going a different path and not nearly so attractive to a potential suitor like Linn.

     

    Its always possible to take a company that distributes virtually all of its profits to shareholders, and who uses equity financing or conventional debt (whichever is allowed/cheaper) to grow as "too diluted or too loaded with debt". Sometimes this accusation is true, and the management has screwed up and hurt the company.

     

    This article fails to convince me. Its obvious from the structure of the presentation that it funnels down to Berry, and ends with the bald statement that it is a good deal for their shareholders. OK, fine. What I do not see is where it demonstrates that the deal is bad for Linn's shareholders.

     

    I would have preferred the author spend less time with the Linn and MLP history lesson, and far more looking at the deal on the table. That would have been potentially valuable, but then again, maybe it would NOT have helped to portray Linn in a negative light.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    Why do you figure the price of (BRY) went from $48 down to $43 in about 50 days?
    26 Jun 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    WT: Because the "word" got out that the deal was in trouble, and it was already priced into their share price.
    26 Jun 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    >trip-
    Thanks. Methinks some short term BRY calls may be in order-
    26 Jun 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Looking forward to the thorough parsing coming.

     

    Thanks TB.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Here is an article from the Ludwig Von Mises Institute proclaiming that deflation is a boogyman of Bennys imagination.

     

    http://bit.ly/10kse9O
    26 Jun 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Excellent!

     

    Very clearly articuated arguments of the logic of the Austrian School.
    26 Jun 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    I just wanna know what happens when pencils cost $.80 to make and the price of a pencil drops to $.50.
    26 Jun 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Austrian or Keynesian answer?
    26 Jun 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    I'd kinda like a DG answer-
    Much more reliable-

     

    {:-)}
    26 Jun 2013, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    If I am buying, I start buying them like crazy.

     

    Back the truck up.

     

    If I am selling, I stop. Till the price changes or the cost changes and I start working on that.
    26 Jun 2013, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    WT, that's when the government gets into the pencil selling business and legislates that there will be an additional tax on pencils for all taxpayers, then the government buys the pencils at .80, and sells them to Warren Buffett for .31 with an agreement to pay him 10% interest for the next five years.
    I'm not quite sure where Ben Bernanke fits in, but he does, because he simultaneously issues debt on pencils and buys that debt.
    Maybe you can fill in that blanks!
    Moral of the story: Use a pen.
    27 Jun 2013, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    >OG-

     

    When I play golf (Very seldom) I make sure I write the score on the card with a pencil- with an eraser.

     

    That's the same logic the politicians use when they make a promise.
    28 Jun 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    Bernanke decides to call for the raising of rates on the bonds used for financing the pencil subsidy in order to combat pencil inflation coming to a point, (groan) and Lehman Bros is resurrected to market the bonds to the Greeks, Cypriots and North Korea-

     

    They form a pencil bond coalition and gladly buy the discounted bonds and immediately petition the World Bank for relief to compensate them for the loss of buying power they have incurred due to buying the bonds.

     

    The World Bank declines lending them any money since the only asset they have seems to be some CCC+ (Moodys) Pencil bonds of 2020.

     

    And so it goes-

     

    Windwood Trader
    28 Jun 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    (EPD) up over 2% at $60.07
    26 Jun 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    How irrationally odd is it that the DOW jumps 150 points when GDP data eases.

     

    This means the US economy is getting worse, and that's received as good news?

     

    Ahhh... Of course. Fears of the FED turning down the sugar spigot soon have been allayed.

     

    What an investing world in which we reside.
    26 Jun 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    Warped-
    26 Jun 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    "How irrationally odd is it that the DOW jumps 150 points when GDP data eases.

     

    This means the US economy is getting worse, and that's received as good news?"

     

    :-) Just look at it from the opposite perspective, Maya. GDP 'history' was revised downward, sort of like catastrophic global warmers revising historical temperature data downward. Lowers the hurdle for reporting continuing upward movement going forward.
    26 Jun 2013, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (8058) | Send Message
     
    Its good news, because its interpreted that tapering won't occur. So people think worse economic data means more consumption subsidies from the Fed, thus risk-on, so they jump in and push prices up.

     

    Here's a chart that shows the effects of Fed intervention. QE doesn't lower rates, it raises them.

     

    http://bit.ly/X4WseR
    27 Jun 2013, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Darn if you guys don't all really "get it".

     

    This sort of ability to grok inverse logical processes is, in the new crony capitalist/socialist world order, an essential survival skill.
    26 Jun 2013, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    But, Trip-
    I get a migraine every time I try to do that. I'm dyslexic to begin with and see things better in a mirror so applying an inverse logically restructured thought process all makes sense.......sorta.
    I'm doomed-

     

    What's more I found that my colander is made of plastic.
    26 Jun 2013, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    WT, I can help you with that. In fact I suggest everyone get their order in. Don't forget to order a matching chin strap for those days like Maya just noted.

     

    http://bit.ly/11KwMXX
    27 Jun 2013, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Just entered an initial position in SDRL.
    27 Jun 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >tripleblack ... Good choice. One of my favorites. Should go into the mid to upper $30's during July-Aug. Have you taken a look at Total (TOT)? From current price down to 5% yield. Has, for me, made for a good midterm trade at 4%.
    27 Jun 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    TOT is always one to watch, particularly with WTI so volatile.

     

    I agree about SDRL, their acquisition of competitor Sevan Drilling is my current reason to enter the stock.
    27 Jun 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >tripleblack ... I've been fascinated by their original 3 deep water rigs and the plans to build 6 more. It keeps the debt level high and is the reason the stock hasn't gotten a lot of traction over the past several years. On the plus side is they have the most advanced deep water rigs in the world. Between Africa & South America, with short forays into the GoM, they will be booked for years. I'll let others worry about the debt.
    27 Jun 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Sevan includes 2 brand new rigs almost ready to go.
    27 Jun 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1727) | Send Message
     
    I've written favorably about SDRL many times on SA and here on the QC. But I wouldn't say SDRL has the (single) most advanced deep-drilling rigs in the world. It's a great company and some of our clients still own it (with a trailing stop given my over-arching concerns about this market.) But having just returned from Norway, where they know a thing or two about deep [and harsh!] drilling, I'd have to place SDRL in the #1 "group," that group including Ocean Rig UDW, Vantage, and Pacific Drilling, with PACD sharing the honor of "newest" but owning the deepest of all. IMO, these constitute the Vanguard that will leave the Old Guard in the dust (or, more accurately, their spray...)
    27 Jun 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Peter Schiff must be reading TB.
    http://bit.ly/19G3viX
    27 Jun 2013, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Yep. Vindicated again. Twice in one week, its a first.
    27 Jun 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    (SLW) up almost 5% this am.

     

    Going to put my toe back in the water- Hope my colander protects me from sharks!

     

    WT
    28 Jun 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    Re: (LINE)

     

    Had been reported that the Berry shareholder vote over the LINE, LNCO merger was canceled- That was CORRECTED to read that the vote was POSTPONED until the SEC could approve the proxy.

     

    I suppose that "In the know" knowledge is what dumped LINE yesterday BEFORE the mis-information was posted by the media.

     

    Should recover- He says hopefully-

     

    LINE up $.20 at Noon to $33.33
    28 Jun 2013, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4129) | Send Message
     
    From FRED-
    This is a new index showing the physical volume of freight shipments in North America over the last 15 years or so.

     

    Draw your own conclusions-

     

    http://bit.ly/13g6CxY

     

    Windwood Trader
    29 Jun 2013, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Thanks WT. I am familiar with Cass. Good numbers for their customer base, which is large, disbursing about $22billion a year for customer's freight (they also handle other chores, including telecom and so forth).

     

    I checked the govt. statistics, and though the overall freight numbers have yet to get back up to the $16.7trillion (value, the fees to move this much would be a percentage of this larger number, of course) in 2007 (particularly if adjusted for inflation), but it looks like it will be close to that number for 2013.

     

    So although large, Cass is working from what is really a percentage of the total.

     

    Sometimes spikes in their statistics are caused by issues isolated to major Cass customers (which might have little overall macro-economic impact), or could be cases where Cass gains or loses major customers.

     

    Still, it is an index which is widely followed, and has influence.
    1 Jul 2013, 01:38 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4788) | Send Message
     
    Interesting index. Thanks WT.
    29 Jun 2013, 09:30 AM Reply