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  • QuickChat #189, August 2, 2011 162 comments
    Aug 2, 2011 1:02 PM

    "Poison Dart Frog". 
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  • Author’s reply » From the last QC:


    Senate passes debt legislation 74-26.


    2 Aug 2011, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • How apropo...a poison dart frog! Copywrited 2011!
    2 Aug 2011, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • hehehe The congress is filled with an army of poison dart frogs.
    2 Aug 2011, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Market just loved that down 127 and counting. Bring on the Budget Mr. Ryan!
    2 Aug 2011, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • From Moon here


    "I can hear the starting gun go off. Let the pork begin again".


    I would caution that we *may* have a "New Attitude" based on the principles, power, commitment and resolve demonstrated by the Tea Party members.


    From *their* POV I think this recent action *must* be seen as an encouraging victory.


    That should both emboldened them and make the entrenched structure members more cautious as they have seen the effects of spineless contestants vs. principled ones.


    The spineless ones can *not* be looking forward to more of the same.


    My prognosis is that although none of us, regardless of affiliation, will support 100% what results, we will see the behavior that more closely resembles what our founding fathers envisioned, although I can't predict to what degree. Over the near term it will be enhanced.


    After enough time has passed to forget the lessons learned from both past and current results, then we start to revert again.


    MHO and hope for at least a near-term improvement,
    2 Aug 2011, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • The Tea Party, as a diffuse, non-heirarchial, loosely organized political movement (vs a concentrated, heirarchial, tightly organized political party) really SHOULD count coup on any impact it has on the greater political scene. At this point in time, their representation in Washington, though respectable for such a new political phenomenon, is yet small and lacking in that all-important asset, seniority.


    Of ALL the groups involved in this Debt Deal, I would submit that ONLY the Tea Party can claim any sort of victory - and I would explicitly exclude the current Republican leadership.
    2 Aug 2011, 01:44 PM Reply Like


    Buchanan has his fantasy fiction references all confused, but I believe he has the rest of it about right...
    2 Aug 2011, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • The Good Guys didn't exactly "clear the field of the enemy" but it WAS a victory.


    Then it has to be done again.....and again.
    2 Aug 2011, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Don't you agree that it's time to dump all incumbance (?) to vote in all new bloods in the next election ?


    Is there still time to recall Obama ? He is a smart man but what is in front of him is way over his head. His family is smarter than him, they all agreed that they don't mind Obama quit after this term.
    4 Aug 2011, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa: Greetings. The drive to oust incumbents started last year and is continuing. President Obama is not subject to a recall procedure. He would have to be impeached by the House of representatives which would require him to be charged with high crimes or misdemeanors. As for his smarts it's left to historians to decide but I doubt that history will be kind to him. Voters will decide next year if he should get another term but if the economy and unemployment are still the same or worse he might as well not run. My personal opinion for what it's worth is that you could find better heads than his in a cabbage patch. No offense intended to any cabbages.
    4 Aug 2011, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Robert. I will definitely stop by the consulate to vote next november. He is not the leader we need. I am proud to be an Yank. I hate to be second class in the world.


    CHANGE we need but not Obama kind !!
    4 Aug 2011, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • TB: Greetings. I have been called many things but this is the first time I've been likened to a "Hobbit.". I agree with your assessment of the piece. The TEA party contingent will be emboldened by this recent activity and this will also cause many conservatives who weren't sure about the TEA party contingent to be more open to siding and allying with them. Now the question becomes how to force the Senate into serious budget negotiations? This should be very interesting as those negotiations will be getting underway any second if they haven't started already. I think this may have provided a wake up call to the progressive faction of the Democrat party that the crises management approach isn't working any more. I can hardly wait to see what new strategy will be adopted by the progressives in these negotiations. Both partie's establishments continue to make blunders regarding the TEA party activists. First they down played the TEA party as an ineffectual movement that wouldn't amount to much right up until the 2010 mid term. Now they are frothing at the mouth and calling them "Terrorists.", "Hobbits." and worse. At least they have figured out that calling them "Racists." or "Biggots." isn't working. Interesting times ahead indeed. Expect a revival of "Tax the rich." to be foremost in the budget debate. Not that that strategy is particularly effective any more either.
    2 Aug 2011, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • I have to LoL every time I hear "taking hostage" of the whatever.


    As if the Dems never could be accused of doing something so vile when the Obamacare 3K page document was passed without being read because "We have to pass it so you can read it".


    Funny how the shoe fits when it's placed on the other foot, huh?


    What a bunch of jerk-xxxs (cleaned up for family consumption).


    At least the current crew laid on the table what they wanted to achieve and let everybody read it before it finally got passed. And serious negotiations and compromises had to be accomplished before passage.


    I view this recent "sausage making" in an entirely different light than what came out of the prior iteration of the "sausage factory".


    2 Aug 2011, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Peter Shiff: "Debt Deal Is A Blank Check." Best line is, "Economic Armageddon would not have resulted from failure to raise the ceiling, but it will come because we succeeded in raising it."

    2 Aug 2011, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • The Left has always looked to the Debt Ceiling as a mechanism to make the Right "share" in the responsibility for inceased spending - whereas the Right has always viewed the Debt Ceiling as a failed hope to limit spending.


    The history is clear that it does NEITHER.


    However, it HAS been very successful in homogenizing responsibility (and has done so again this time) for purposes of maintaining re-electability.


    AND the more the Debt Ceiling becomes a Christmas Tree festooned with every imaginable spending issue (most of which should always be seperate bills rather than omnibus abortions), the more that it serves its true (counter-Constitutional) function.


    However, assuming we do, indeed, live in an age where individual accountability (vs collective mud wrestling) is the norm, one cannot blame the Tea Partiers for putting this one in the "win" column.
    2 Aug 2011, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • I'm hoping that he underestimates the resolve of the freshmen congressional members *and* the folks that voted them in.


    If so, the actual reductions in spending may start to appear in the future in a fashion timely enough to retrieve us from the brink.


    2 Aug 2011, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • SPX: next potential support levels seem around $1258 and $1249.


    Volume on today's downdraft seems to be strong and I anticipate no *quick* reversal and move up.


    2 Aug 2011, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Spit'n 32 penny nails now.


    Ron Paul discovers in excess of $16,000,000,000,000 (that's 16 trillion friggin ^#^#!! dollars) has been secretly doled out by the Fed.


    "What was revealed in the audit was startling: $16,000,000,000,000.00 had been secretly given out to US banks and corporations, and foreign banks everywhere from France to Scotland [and Belgium, which is now on the PIIGS+France list]."


    List of amounts of corps, stateside and Euro banks received included at the end of the article. Citibank received a staggering $2.5T!

    2 Aug 2011, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Holy Crap! We need an article on this Maya!
    2 Aug 2011, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • I wonder how many jobs were created or "saved" for the U.S. by those actions. Or put another way, by making our competitors stronger, how many additional jobs were lost here right now.


    And what will be the future effects as money loaned at 0% yields no profits which would have been returned to our treasury? And since those are xero-risk loans to those foreign institutions, how did they use that money in ways that might be damaging to the U.S. interests.


    No one should be surprised. The history of the behavior of central banks since the first was established centuries ago has demonstrated how they act in the interests of themselves and not the governments fro which they have taken issuance authority.


    I also can not understand the lack of coverage ... except that one must question who controls the media and how are they able to find funds to buy up the media?


    If the financial markets are disrupted these folks suffer and we know who the CBs are designed to benefit.


    Our founding fathers had it right when they determined that bankers were the worst thing that could happen to our nation's money and determined that treasury should be responsible for its issuance.


    The Christmas raid that got the latest iteration of the CB established in 1913 was a coup, by the bankers, of our *constitutional government - nothing less.


    If we were to apply the same penalties to them that we do to other major financial miscreants there would be a lot of highly educated and wealthy (formerly) folks in federal penitentiaries right now and we would be in much better shape as a nation.


    The ultimate results of "debt-money", our current system, has been known for ages and is exactly why our constitution avoided it.


    2 Aug 2011, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah! I'm floored by reading this. That this article came out July 21st and nobody has talked about this rape of US baffling, politely put.


    And yet, that's a drop in the nebula-sized bucket of the $612T of US currency and derivative debts, as appears on the US Debt Clock.

    2 Aug 2011, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Bought (COP).
    2 Aug 2011, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • GUYS


    Remember i posted we will lose 2k on the DOW. So far it is over 880 points. Gold and Silver Looks much better now. DG was worried about 300 point swings...Well we are close to one!!!


    But what does a noobie know...Just wait until we are downgraded as the agreement was a joke.


    Now my question, who has any suggestions on what to buy once this bear market ends. I am new to investing on my own but you would have to be deaf and blind the last 6 weeks with all the negative news on ALL points...IMHO


    I believe in the physical metals a year ago and i maintain this is the sweet spot for a long time to come. This country is run by idiots running around with band aids trying to fix a problem that will take severe pain from everyone to fix.


    That is the big problem, EVERYONE won't !!!


    2 Aug 2011, 04:04 PM Reply Like


    Update on my Italy watch...


    Its the key to the Eurozone crisis. Greece is just the ancient mints on the restaurant checkout counter...
    2 Aug 2011, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Move in the A$ which beat down the ASX and our REE stocks downunder is just a teaser, the runup BEFORE the BOJ and the Japanese treasury start to support the yen. Australia also decided to leave interest rates alone just before this, a clear signal that they aren't going to fight the yen support. Word from Washington is that we won't either...


    China MIGHT decide to battle, but I'm thinking they will let the Japanese take their best shots before stepping back into their plan to drive up the yen...


    In the meantime, the dollar may act as if on steroids.
    2 Aug 2011, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • There is a narrative that runs that this will be GOOD for American markets. European money will flee their own bourses and support American equities as a flight to the dollar occurs... Our debt will become easier to sell and at lower interest rates... Gold will also go up in value, though the strong dollar will suppress this move to some extent...


    We will see if this traditional equation works out.


    I think NOT this time, or at least, not to the same extent.


    A lot will depend on just how hard Japan intends to fight, and whether or not they learned anything from the last time, when China handed them their heads.
    2 Aug 2011, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • TB one of the problems with the stronger dollar is what are they measuring that strength against. I have no idea what the dollar index is plotted against. Plotted against precious metals it should be in the teens but it hovers in he 70's. All fiat is falling over the cliff, it is just a matter of time till they start piling up at the bottom of the cliff.


    I just don't know the date but I don't see it as the last one to crash is the winner like the crash car derby at the fair. Some how I see a political joke in there. All the govt finance ministers and central bankers driving crash car derby's with the symbol of their money as the number on the car and all crashing into each other to see who the winner is. LOL


    I think I will take my psychotic bi-polar date "silver" to watch the derby. Hey look baby the Swiss are driving a silver phantom Rolls Royce, and thier winning.
    2 Aug 2011, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • Everyone seems to be waiting to exhale. Voldemort is threatening to do something about all of the cash being hoarded by individuals and corporations except those on the freinds of carlotta list. Of course everyone knows they are empty threats as he doesn't seem to be able to get much of anything done except the continuing erosion of the economy. Obama Care remains the single biggest drag on the economy. Staggering from one crises to another isn't giving any one the warm fuzzies and markets around the world continue to be range bound. From here in the Jacuzzie things seem likely to stay that way until some of these issues are settled in a long term benneficial manner. Of course that seems unlikely to happen any time soon.
    2 Aug 2011, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • You're right, robert, it IS a "time for mud", ie, my patented (you should see the pumps, they could use them in Alberta on the oil sands projects) turtle mud jacuzzi.


    Overdosed on Washington insanity? Tired of worrying about socialist movements in every balliwick you have an investment threatening to nationalize your last dime? Weary unto death WAITING for "recovery" to be something more than an inverted term corrupted by dark wizards ruling our lives from DC?


    Cash in and join us in the mud jacuzzi.


    It does wonders for the knee and elbow scales...
    2 Aug 2011, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Gold is spiking late...


    Wow, talk about a nasty pumpfake...


    I wonder what the Asian markets will make of this?
    2 Aug 2011, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • I expcected the markets to soar after a deal and the dollar to strengthen and PM's to dip. Its not working out that way. Absolute opposite it seems. PM's usually have a bad July-Aug but take off end of Aug or in Sept.


    I think we are early this year (could it really be different this time ya think!!) and I am worried for the overall world wide stock market. Koreans just bought 25 tons of gold. First purchase IIRC. World wide depression coming, collapse of fiat, double dip.???? Seems to be a storm brewing but I do not know how big its gonna be. Pray tell its not a catagory 5. It might blow the feds 16 trillion away.


    Quick question. Who's money was it they loaned out. Do you think they earned that money, just printed it or just stole it.
    2 Aug 2011, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • DG: There's a new term I heard lately, "electronically created money." It only exists in computers. It's still taxpayer money. But not tangible.
    2 Aug 2011, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • >Maya


    Money that "exists" in computer memory storage should qualify as EFM. That is, Electronic Funny Money.


    So who approved creating all of this highly inflationary EFM? If it's the Federal Reserve Bank, do they really have the authority?


    I wonder what the Chinese think about receiving their US gov debt interest payments in EFM? Will it buy as much oil as it used to? Silly question.
    2 Aug 2011, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • I Wonder if that money was reported by those banks as a loan and if the stock holders are aware of that loan? Would that be off balance sheet loans again. Stock performance should be tied to those loans and the ability to repay them. Of course the SEC will never investigate this. LOL


    Bought another 5% in AGQ and DGP just minutes prior to close yesterday.


    Prepairing for a goooh event across the state for the 15th/16th in a part of the state I have not seen any interest before. Miegs county Ohio just on the border with W VA and KY.
    3 Aug 2011, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • When we end the Fed, 16T in defaulted loans will be the reason, I will have to put forward another Jig. Problem is I have used up my best ones.


    So a different view of one I posted before is here for your enjoyment.



    Just a taste however.
    3 Aug 2011, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • Even our SH, SEF, RWM and SBB didn't keep us neutral today -- our preferreds and preferred and senior loan funds took too big a hit! If not for RBY and LYSDY taking up so much of the portfolios so that we couldn't make any space for other long special situations, it would be worse. Still, I'm thinking this is, with just slight fine-tuning, pretty much what we'll carry throughout the Dog Days!
    2 Aug 2011, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • DOW closed at 11,866.62, or off 1009.38 points from this recent high of 12,876.00. Its down about 7.8%. Is this going to turn into a true correction, something over 10%?


    I recently predicted it might drop to 10,200...


    Only 1666.62 points to go.
    2 Aug 2011, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer: Greetings. I expect much the same with the impending battle of the budget for entertainment through September and debt reduction negotiations by the "Super committee." picking up the slack once that crises has been averted. After that the campaigns for office will be in full swing. A full slate of disgusting episodes of "As the Stomach Turns.".
    2 Aug 2011, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Robert, as long as we are forced to watch soap opera re-runs from DC this summer, if you get tired of watching "As the Stomach Turns," you can always switch to "Days of our Lies" or "All My Prodigals..."
    2 Aug 2011, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • LOL Joseph, good one.
    3 Aug 2011, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Gold is picking up steam tonight, looking very $1700ish.


    Will the exchanges act to "restore order to the markets"?


    Will they pull their whipping boy (silver) out of the closet again, or go after Gold directly?
    2 Aug 2011, 06:07 PM Reply Like


    "Economy Sputtering Out".


    Yep, sounds about right.
    2 Aug 2011, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Challemger report this A.M: 66K announced corporate layoffs and these are from "majors", not "mom and pop" businesses. Bright side is that for the 2008-2010(?) period it was 100K+ every month.


    Government continues layoffs and non-profits too. One was 11K, but I can't recall which.


    ADP later this A.M.


    3 Aug 2011, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • I am expecting a bounce back tomorrow. But i am confused as to the nice size selloff. Can it all be debt ceiling related??


    I mean most investors knew what to expect, imho i just think this possible recession/depression is building stronger legs.


    2 Aug 2011, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • CNBC this A.M. says it was really never about that - everyone believed it would pass, be insufficient.


    It's all about EU worries according to them.


    Truth? I don't know, but I have a hard time believing the market dropped when the outcome of the debt ceiling issues was more or less as expected.


    Keep in mind I'm ignorant about this stuff. Regardless ...


    I think the debt issue *combined* with the now-confirmed slow-down in the economy (maybe also because it was in the 1st half rather than the commonly-expected 2nd half?) and EU issues caused it.


    Look at the falling yields in the longer-term bonds (meaning demand is high and bond price is rising) suggesting a "flight to safety. This seems supported by the increase in the U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY, and gold, which hit new highs. We don't see these sorts of things in concert without some fear being present. Since prolonged exposure to the perceived risk of things seems to inure folks against a panic reaction and we had prolonged exposure to the expectation of the debt-ceiling outcome, I don't think that caused the fear indicated by those indicators.


    But the reduced GDP and ever-changing, yet always the same, EU crises remains fresh due to the differences every time it rolls around. Folks remain fearful because it's different each time.


    So money going into those safe-haven instruments has to come from somewhere and I suspect it was the equity market. And I think that caused the move down.


    I suspect a lot of money leaving European instruments is going into gold and bonds as well.


    And I believe you're 100% right about "stronger legs". GDP indicates it earlier than expected. So even the bears were late since they didn't think it would appear until 2nd half.


    In a way it's very appropriate. Forcing the deferment of the needed correction in all the assets is supposed to engender a more severe move when the correction that inevitably comes finally appears. In our case this may be manifested in the earlier than expected arrival. Maybe that's the only "severe" part or maybe not. We have speed of and depth of to test yet.


    3 Aug 2011, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • On no news printed that I can find in my window of internet time:
    ANMCF up 8.13% today
    AQSFF up 17.40% today


    I'm still in the red on AQSFF even after that one day gain




    Like Doubleguns, I really thought after the debt ceiling got raised that the market would go up and precious metals would get clobbered... apparently, I was wrong. On the bright side... more arrows pointing toward QE3... which should be even better for precious metals and other commodities. On the downside, the general population of the country is being repeatedly run over by a cavalcade of foolishness from D.C.
    2 Aug 2011, 11:44 PM Reply Like
  • I still say that the abrupt (and total surprise) drop in the ISM numbers - and the order backlog and new order data, indicating outright CONTRACTION - which came out this week, did the trick. Odd timing, stepping on the Debt Ceiling, but it was just one of those coincidences which offset one another... In this case, MORE than offset one another. The geopolitical scene is filled with background worry that the pundits can point to, but we must not be surprised when they AVOID mentioning the 600 pound recession gorilla sitting smack in the middle of the statistics.


    A LOT of wagons were hitched very firmly to the krew we have now in Washington, and CYA will guarantee that we will have some pretty useless analysis out of that bunch, just when the nation needs that information in the worst way.


    Its always a lot easier to blame our economic troubles on external events and "other people" living in foreign lands.
    3 Aug 2011, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • Following up on AQSFF and ANMCF notes after 3 trading days without internet:
    AQSFF is BELOW the price at which it began that 17.40% rise - stock price action has been awful for months, now its awful and volatile.
    ANMCF is about back at where it started that 8.13% rise.
    7 Aug 2011, 03:12 AM Reply Like
  • There will be one more "good" rally before the March down begins in ernest.


    So far, i've seen 2 people clapping themselves on the back for calling a move to/between Dow 10k-11k.


    My goodness, when push comes to shove, I betcha both of them read my comments and ran with what I wrote when the Right Shoulder of the Dow's H&S started forming
    ( in June )
    or when I wrote about the Negative Divergence in the Dow theory inre Non-Confirmation shown by the Industrial/Transportation stocks.a few weeks ago.


    I called "this or I said that", geesh the 2 of you sound like 4real.
    3 Aug 2011, 06:54 AM Reply Like
  • No doubt about it, Freya, you called it first.
    3 Aug 2011, 08:47 AM Reply Like


    4REAL??? I just hit the abuse button !!!!


    4 Aug 2011, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • Peter Schiff, Meredith Whitney, Jim Rogers, Jim Chanos.
    These are not permabears, they are "reality readers".


    Even with my careful hedging, I am taking a bath on NUE.
    Just two months ago I was fretting because the calls I sold were way in the money and I thought they were going to be exercised.
    It's $10.00 a share below that now.


    Nuecor fell to the $28 region at the low in 2009. That's what I am prepared for now.


    I sold COP to go into NBL. But I'm still waiting on that one.
    4 Aug 2011, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Oy, Gee: Greetings. Welcome back to the forum you built (With a little help from your friends.), we missed you.
    4 Aug 2011, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Cyber hugs!
    4 Aug 2011, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • The Real question is whether this move is the Start of the Final Leg of the Secular Bear.


    Will we see DOW 7,000 or lower before the end of 2012.


    Back in the 1st qrtr of 2009, many of us speculated whether Gold would meet the DOW like it did in 1982 or Whether the DOW would trade at Book Value like it did then too.


    1982 was the end of the last Secular Bear which stretched for 16 years and included multiple Bubbles like Oil, Gold, Housing, sound familiar?


    I can trace my/our comments back for 3 years.


    The 2009 Bottom?, which one of you claims to have called that one?


    I do not Claim to have called it, But we did start posting purchases like the BAC Trust preferreds ( below $10) and CQP around $5 in the Feb./Mar 2009 timeframe and onward


    I did an Insta devoted to my Hubby, must reading for History buffs :)
    3 Aug 2011, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • "I did an Insta devoted to my Hubby, must reading for History buffs :) "


    Could you link to this insta? You have quite a few, and I can't tell which one.
    3 Aug 2011, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • When I was erased, all of the comments on all of my Instas were erased as well.



    Hubby had 3 incarnations: paultaut aka NOWHEREMAN aka Conan the Barbarian.
    3 Aug 2011, 11:14 AM Reply Like


    I wasn't here back then, but since i started i always said this was a fake market....go look at my comments.


    Not sure if i beat ya but i am still patting myself as i don't get many right,




    So are you on record for 7k???


    4 Aug 2011, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • Bought more (COP). I laugh at danger.... I remember that line from an old movie...
    3 Aug 2011, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • I wouldn't laugh at danger.


    But COP might be a viable anti-dote.
    3 Aug 2011, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • I sold COP! (Maybe to you.)
    4 Aug 2011, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Still accumulating (COP) in small bites on the way down.
    4 Aug 2011, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Here is some humor for everyone. Choice.

    3 Aug 2011, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • The S&P 300 day exponential MA is about 1235, we bounced on that.


    The S&P 400 day exponential MA is about 1210.
    3 Aug 2011, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • FPA: And the Relative Strength Index of (SPX) today is lower now than anytime since last July 2.


    Got that 2010 July bottom right, Freya! Along with friend, John Loundsbury, through using this indicator.


    Added Axion Power, Sangamo Biosciences, and am currently chasing down a tad of Zalicus.
    3 Aug 2011, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • Yesterday, SPY Williams %R was -100.00. Tday right now still-89.57.


    3 Aug 2011, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • I saw that yesterday, HTL. And checked Williams %R today, too.


    Tempting to call that we put in a bottom today. Things are waaaaaaay different this year than last, though.
    3 Aug 2011, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Well, right now the SPX is back above that $1249 level - a prior support point.


    Let's hope it holds and marks a "double bottom", although I guess it can't since we *did* break it.


    3 Aug 2011, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • MAYA


    I am afraid we are aways from a charts, just my opinion


    4 Aug 2011, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • You are probably right, ACE. There is nothing out there to cling onto, except that oil is cheaper.


    My own little conspiracy theory is that corporations and banks have so much cash on hand because they know that all hell is going to break loose, eventually, and they will need that cash to survive.
    4 Aug 2011, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • I'm out of ZLCS! It was profitable but I felt that no way is that stock strong enough to weather these market conditions and I fear we are not going to hit a bottom now.
    4 Aug 2011, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • Just sold my $1.95 shares for a whopping $30.00 profit. Looking that way about the bottom not being in. Even my gold stocks are down today, when the metal itself is up.
    4 Aug 2011, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Greetings all: IIRC we discussed the cash hoarding phenomena way back April or May along with the debt instruments being issued by the likes of Google (GOOG). We had a consensus that things would move from bad to worse in the H2 and that all of the hoarding and cash accumulation was because things were going to deteriorate. Those companies that couldn't access the debt market at the current cheap rates and had insufficient cash on hand could be in real trouble. Unfortunately it looks as if we were right this time around. Our timing was even pretty much spot on as we had looked for things to go south after the 16th of July. Low and behold we had the second longest sustained sell off in 33 years with eight straight down days before the stick save yesterday at the close. Coincidence? I doubt it, the PPT was at work, because that would have been another hit on Voldemort's record. There's undoubtedly more to come as the Eurozone continues to spiral inexorably downward. Check out the links FPA put up on the Stability of the Euro 3 thread which I reposted on the Breakfast Club thread. As double, Guns is fond of saying "We're going in." and at an accelerating pace. I took the liberty of changing filters and the Jacuzzi is just fine come on in.
    4 Aug 2011, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Who is interactive brokers. Silver margin increase!!! WTFO!!!!!

    3 Aug 2011, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • When you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing; when you see that money is flowing to those who deal not in goods, but in favors; when you see that men get rich more easily by graft than by work, and your laws no longer protect you against them, but protect them against may know that your society is doomed.


    Ayn, Rand: Atlas Shrugged
    3 Aug 2011, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • The higher the margin requirement, the closer silver will get to trading without leverage and the true-er the price. Also, don't forget that Dodd-Frank Bill started 7/15 taking the little retail speculators out of that market. I think it is bullish.
    Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead.
    4 Aug 2011, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • LOL! Now OG is laughing at danger!! Reminds me of another movie line from the Wild Bunch.... "Why Not!"
    4 Aug 2011, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • DG


    Does 240 points down count as a bad day in your book. I am ordering more physical now !!!


    4 Aug 2011, 10:58 AM Reply Like


    For the Quantum fans, nice article with homey Nebraska touch. Obvious potential tie to Strategic Minerals bills in Congress.
    3 Aug 2011, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Want a safe harbor? TAMO. Zero shares traded yesterday, only 200 so far today.
    3 Aug 2011, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Strong hands...
    3 Aug 2011, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • (XIDE): Doing really well today. From the low at 10:42 it has marched on up to $6.99, +4.33%.


    It *ought* to pause at $7 level, a dollar boundary. Then we'll see what happens.


    This is why I bought the call options - last time coming into Q report there was a 10%+ rise. Although starting from a lower level due to all the external turmoil, I'm expecting it to be near $8 when the CC comes.


    xxxx (fingers crossed).




    P.S. Volume good too - 100K more makes the 25-day average of 643K.
    3 Aug 2011, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Any new word on the Friday non-farm numbers and possible effect?
    3 Aug 2011, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Oy, Gee posted this on The Compass thread. It's a very sobering piece from Zero Hedge detailing the anatomy of a melt down. It's a cautionary tale for the U.S. financial industry and an out right crises in the Eurozone. Given the continuing number of bank failures it could happen here.
    3 Aug 2011, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, Mr. Ferguson. Another nice move on Sarissa today, eh?
    3 Aug 2011, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O: Greetings. Indeed it is. (SRSR) is up more than 8% today. IIRC you and I were buying this around the same range just above $0.03. It's been trending up and now is @ a 109% gain @ $0.07. Let us not forget though that these pennies can be very volatile. Quantum Rare Earth (QREDF) is rebounding as well up 16% today but still down 4% from initial purchase and down 2% average cost basis. I'm fully stocked up on both and will hold them in the sock drawer.
    3 Aug 2011, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Rain, I thought you might enjoy listening to this oldie since it has a "Waterboy" in it.


    Better than watching market go down - and I'm glad it seems to be over.


    "Mule Skinner Blues"


    1960 vintage.



    3 Aug 2011, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Silver is shooting up again. This volatility will continue as long as there is a total shortage in silver to be held as stores of value. In reality the only way for Comex and others to counter the volatility and risk is hold a lot more silver if they could get any. That means it must get expensive enough for industrial use to cut back which is around $75-100 probably.
    3 Aug 2011, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Moon, not sure that price would result in much industrial cut back since most applications use so little and there is not usually another alternative. At least that is what I have read in the past.
    3 Aug 2011, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Yes, it is hard to replace it but it will cut down on silver coated anti-bacterial socks and underwear. Silver remains the conductor of choice and its used widely in solar cells among other things. When platinum hit the roof they switched to palladium. Gold is also a good conductor as well, lol. The problem is it is more expensive not less.
    3 Aug 2011, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • I will not give up my silver underwear!!!
    3 Aug 2011, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • MOON


    Walking around a hospital i wish i had those anti baterial socks i left home....


    4 Aug 2011, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • Silentz: Greetings. Nice stick save. Haven't seen one in a while!
    3 Aug 2011, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Its hump day. Looks like folks got screwed.
    3 Aug 2011, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • (XIDE) "... to Present at Jefferies 2011 Global Industrial and A&D Conference on August 10th" ... "@ 9:00 A.M".


    "... webcast live at and ... ... by clicking on "Investor Relations" and selecting "Presentations & Webcasts". A replay of the webcast will be available on both locations for a period of 90 days following the presentation."



    Good timing I suspect as the quarterly report will be 8/5 (this Friday) and I think management must think it will be a good one and worth appearing at the conference.


    BTW, based on today's price action, I expect the stock is beginning another leg up into the conference call.


    3 Aug 2011, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Under a different circumstance, I'd be making that Exide trade. Exide looks really cheap right now.
    4 Aug 2011, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • >Maya, I bought some of that "really cheap Exide" yesterday. Sigh.
    4 Aug 2011, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • Feel for ya. I'm holding until after the non-farms report. Shaping up to be my favorite potential couple long day trade, Exide is.


    Little edgy about pulling down any trade with the euro-effect.
    4 Aug 2011, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Fukushima problems worsen.


    3 Aug 2011, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • (SPX): marketwatch wonders if the venerable 200 day SMA has lost its mojo in today's market - Mark Hulbert.



    On another note, I'm surprised that we closed above $1258 ($1261.20) after dropping below the next support ~$1249. Looking at volume on the (, it looks like it wants to move up. Volume was highest since 3/16.


    Since the lows were put in at 10:38 and the rest of the day was a "chunky" pattern of price clawing it's way back up, it appears that their were a *lot* of folks deciding that a buying opportunity was present.


    It may be nothing more than what Freya suggested - another brief rally starting before a nose dive, but it's still good to see. Since the 50 day DMA is on a decidedly downward trend and the 200 is up, a "death cross" is in our future soon


    3 Aug 2011, 05:22 PM Reply Like


    Missed most of the action today as i search or a doctor that can help!!!


    Anyway, from what i have as a gut feeling all better start piling up you gold and silver as i think the game might be coming to a close!!!


    Today was a fools bounce, bought shorting the market as the feeling sometimes is better than any graph i am shown.


    3 Aug 2011, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • I wish you luck on the Doc - there's nothing in my experience worse than nagging continuous severe back pain. Eve the broken legs from two MC accidents when I was very young didn't measure up to a simple muscle spasm in the back.


    You heard that one of the trading houses was raising margins on silver again? I don't recall which - posted in the REE concentrator IIRC.


    3 Aug 2011, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • HTL


    Thanks, but i am afraid i am stuck with this, Three disc removed and bars in place give me no mobility, no bending at the waste. Oh well.


    Yes, i did hear they raised the margin again but my position is owning physical. I don;t plan on selling most of it unless it is wotrh way more.


    In fact raising the margin just makes me think they are afraid of run away prices, which i am banking on.


    3 Aug 2011, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Dear Acehart,
    "In fact raising the margin just makes me think they are afraid of run away prices, which i am banking on."


    Sorry about your back. But at least you have a sharp MIND. Which, in the final analysis, may be the more important thing.
    3 Aug 2011, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • G $ D


    Sooner or later they will max out at even, Which is fine with me as i am still accumulating my PM'S. Most friends think i am nuts, well all i can do is warn my family and they are on their own.


    But hopefully i will be prepared, maybe even have to leave the country, Who knows what the future will bring, All i know is every day i open my mail and prices are rising. I pay my own health insurance and it is gettin so expensive and the tricks they play are funny.


    We chose a high deductable and all of a sudden this years increase is to combine my prescription deductable ( 100 bucks ) with my insurance deductable (1100.00 bucks ). So now my meds will cost 1200 bucks before my co pay kicks in. AETNA ARE THIEVES !!!!


    Looking now to change carriers or soon i will go without health insurance and just walk into a hospital when i don't feel well and they can kiss my a$$ and take care of me.


    3 Aug 2011, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • is there an advantage to purchasing instead of sivr?
    This converts to canadian dollar.
    Today was up 2.20% while sivr was up 1.97%.
    huz is $27.+ a share and sivr is $41+ a share.
    canadian dollar $1.00/USD $1.05
    Any ideas?
    3 Aug 2011, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • I suspect the only way to evaluate is to compare the prospectus for each and NAV. One could be trading at a premium while the other wasn't, each share could represent different amounts, etc. Management fees could be different.


    Since I've yet to even consider anything like these yet, other than when I looked at UNG, I can't be any real help.


    If you can trade both Canadian and U.S. exchanges, you may be able to take advantage of currency differences if there's little or no fees associated with the currency conversion. "Arbitrage".


    3 Aug 2011, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • OG, Your playing both metals and currency trade there so it gets to be more complicated. I think the dollar is going to weaken against the Canadian dollar if QE3 goes into effect and then it would be a no brainer. For now political winds can really blow things around. I do not play the currency trade since to much is impacted by the politicians, of course what isnt these days, but the point is it happens even faster and I do not follow it.
    4 Aug 2011, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • I can't do it on my trading platform. FYI. It was fun thinking about it though.
    4 Aug 2011, 01:12 PM Reply Like


    Here we go again, PM'S are up as well


    4 Aug 2011, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • DG


    I think i am up to that last chapter!!!


    4 Aug 2011, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • After cleaning remember to reload and chamber, that part is implied.
    4 Aug 2011, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • Didn't know machine gun ammo was that expensive!!!


    4 Aug 2011, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • elektron-bbs.dyndns.or...
    4 Aug 2011, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • DG


    I hope today IS a buying opportunity for PM'S....ALMOST A 3 BUCK SAVINGS PER OUNCE . I know i wil need time but i bought PSLV instead of physical because my coin guy would not lock in a price for an hr !!!! He knows my medical condition.


    Well it is cheaper now than the price we were gonna lock in on but that guy should have a heart attack. I spent plenty of money and told i cannot hold 20 ounces??? WTF


    4 Aug 2011, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): IBM going to do another advanced energy-efficient data center - has contract with Toledo University.


    Since CPST turbines were one of the key components of the SUNY system I think we could see that again as IBM builds on what it has learned and done in the past.



    This is going to be an accelerating trend as installations around the world climb on-board to help address reliability and energy consumption issues.


    4 Aug 2011, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • $1700.00 goal by the end of tomorrow?? You would think at some point we will have a pullback. Looking to buy some more but getting an itchy finger,not to mention a scary feeling as well


    4 Aug 2011, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • At this point I think it has become apparent.
    4 Aug 2011, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • (CPST): Trailing stop buy +2 cents 13K shares being tried in low $1.3x range.




    P.S. Got 'em @ $1.335. xxxx now fingers crossed.
    4 Aug 2011, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Suprised to see some silver miners down today??
    4 Aug 2011, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Italy's bond market just blew up!
    4 Aug 2011, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Strong dollar, weak euro. Italy is the key.
    4 Aug 2011, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • "Strong dollar, weak euro. Italy is the key. "


    Reminds me of the "hammering" of a weak pound against the anvil of the strong mark in 1992. And we all know what happened then.
    4 Aug 2011, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • G&D: Greetings. That was a Soros activity. While he is probably contributing to this for fun and profit as well it's not part of his long range plan to bring down the U.S. Dollar. In fact the recent events may be impeding his progress which appears to be considerable already.
    4 Aug 2011, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Didn't you get the news? Soros is retiring. LOL.
    4 Aug 2011, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • OG,


    Glad to see you back here.


    Soros only leaving trading for public. Still doing it for himself and family.


    I suspect that's still a "chunk 'o change" in play.


    4 Aug 2011, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • That's why I'm laughing.
    4 Aug 2011, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • That's why I'm Drinking a lot. Now he won't have to do disclosure on his massive private trades. He will become a one man economic wrecking ball. Kind of like Voldemort.
    4 Aug 2011, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • I didn't say the SOROS would do it. Again.


    But there may be one or more "would be" Soroses.
    5 Aug 2011, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Dear Robert:


    Like him or not, Soros remains a SUPRANATIONAL investor.

    5 Aug 2011, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Market: Heard this several times now that explains *some* of the market action ... maybe.


    Traders hunting for a way to make money have figured out to short at open and cover when Europe bourses close.


    I think we had noticed this in the past, but now it's leaked into the MSM chatter.


    Simon asking Art Cashin about the possibility action is a reaction to QE2 end, which FPA expounded on a month or two back.


    4 Aug 2011, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Finally got the $.28 shares of TAMO filled.


    Only Elephant Talk (ETAK) is green on my screen. Really ugly day.
    4 Aug 2011, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Maya: Greetings. Unfortunately I canceled my program for (TAMO) when I started going to cash and PM a couple of weeks ago. IIRC I posted that it would be wise to put your stops in at the time.
    4 Aug 2011, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • My thinking is that the owner of Cougar Oil and Gas, William Tighe, who also owns TAMO, is going to bring in a nice well this next month. Drilling has already commenced, and Tighe chose his best sweet spot of 54 properties to drill.
    4 Aug 2011, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • To add to the hurricane we are suffering in today's market…


    (August 4, 2011) NOAA ups 2011 hurricane forecast
    CHICAGO From: MarketWatch.


    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration bumped up its 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, raising its prediction of the number of named storms from a range of 12 to 18 to a range of 14 to 19. Noting that conditions are prime "for high hurricane activity during August through October," Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center, said that "storms through October will form more frequently and become more intense than we've seen so far this season."


    NOAA predicts that the number of hurricanes will be 7 to 10, with 3 to 5 being "major," i.e. with winds of at least 111 miles per hour.


    Got oil? Got oil support companies (CLH), (DVR), (SPN)
    4 Aug 2011, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • While I'm sure those good people at NOAA are better equipped and educated than I am. I'm wondering what they are seeing regarding La Nina. It's very persistent and continues to keep high pressure over much of the country and push a lot of sheer into the northern GOM and central Atlantic coastal waters. Thus making those areas a hostile environment for tropical developement. My annual (DVR) play is very sluggish this year and has retreated into the red. I may have to carry the paper loss into next year's trade.
    4 Aug 2011, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Hi Robert
    I believe what they are seeing is the re-establishment of a La Nina pattern. A La Nina pattern often makes for a more active hurricane season.
    4 Aug 2011, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • Don't forget, the non-farm payroll report for July comes out tomorrow...
    4 Aug 2011, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Blood in the streets, right?


    Added not only (CPST), but 12K of (AXPW 8.5K completed so far) @ $0.60, trying for (TAMO) @ $0.28 (offer moved 1 penny closer - I'm hopeful since oil and NG are also down today).


    He-he - just got a partial fill on the TAMO.


    Am I being too aggressive? Maybe but CC for Axion, Exide, Cpst all on tap and I'm betting on all of them.


    4 Aug 2011, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • (August 4, 2011) Margin Calls Force Start Of Gold Liquidation
    From: Zero Hedge, by Tyler Durden


    As expected, the massive global rout is shifting to the best performing asset: gold, which courtesy of pervasive repo desk margin calls (which are merely trying to preserve capital for their TBTF holding companies) is seeing liquidations to satisfy collateral margin requirements.


    It will be interesting if the only real dip worth buying will see buyers come out of the woodwork or if gold will proceed to plunge alongside everything else.
    I will buy (GLD) on the margin call dip.
    4 Aug 2011, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Gartman says on CNBC margin increases are coming for GOLD.


    Cortez says he's shorting silver. Says we're back in a credit crises and puts us back in a deflationary environment.


    Gartman & Cortez projects stronger dolar getting stronger due to ECB policy change will hit all commodities.


    4 Aug 2011, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • BNY Mellon is going to charge customers for holding cash now.


    4 Aug 2011, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • The best place for cash is in a brokerage not a bank imo.
    4 Aug 2011, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • I agree. I can't get my wife to buy into it though - she's in CD's. At least I convinced her to go short-term though so she can benefit when rates rise without too much delay.


    BTW, Ally Bank has a CD that you can bump up to current rates one time during its lifetime. Maybe I'll see if she would go for that at least.


    4 Aug 2011, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Wow! Didn't see that coming. A completely weird twist. Banks charging customers to deposit cash? I thought the norm was to pay interest on deposits. I wonder how long it will take for depositors to withdraw their cash from Mellon. I can't see any scenario where this would end well for Mellon. Other banks are still paying a small amount of interest on deposits.
    4 Aug 2011, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • It's only very large deposits that are affected.


    One thing to keep in mind that deposits at banks are liabilities. Not being an accountant, I don't how/why this affects decisions.


    I can only think that opportunities for the bank to earn income, effectively generating assets (loans?) and income, must be limited.


    Just a guess.


    5 Aug 2011, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • It's accounts at $50 Mil and above.
    5 Aug 2011, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Blood seems to be receding ATM on my stocks. I wonder if I could end the day only down a couple % points.


    That would be nice.


    SPY climbing up, up, up since 11:47 low. Bumping the 200 minute averge ATM.


    4 Aug 2011, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • LOL! 200 minute Average! LOL!
    4 Aug 2011, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah, I laugh too. But I've noticed on CPST that big price moves come when pps and 200 average bump each other. I think it's related to quants and HFT algorithms that scrape fractional pennies off the trades.


    Maybe other stocks too, but I've not watched those others as intently.


    4 Aug 2011, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • E.C.B. buying bonds to quell uncertainty in soveriegn debt:



    But this is what the article doesn't say; that via the IMF, the E.C.B. has access to the FED window. Guess what, we're once again bailing out Europe buy letting Europe borrow from US. Kudos to Rush L. for pointing this out; made want to turn the curtain rods into lances and jam the fineals into the FED's gut.


    4 Aug 2011, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Interestingly... Bloomberg reported that the Bundesbank's Weidmann is said to be opposed to the resumption of ECB bond buying, at least two bouts of which already took place earlier this morning, most likely in Italian and Portuguese bonds.
    4 Aug 2011, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Silver sold off way over the market. Interesting. Gold is stronger than the rest of the market. Liquidity premium is getting extreme when the flight to quality only includes cash and gold. Which leaves you wondering why people are buying 10 year US treasuries at crap yields. That is certainly not quality but I guess its better than any Euro debt at the moment.
    4 Aug 2011, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Tucked tail and ran. Out of DGP and AGQ and Monex. Took wife to her doctors appt this morning with a 4500 profit and now have a 1800 loss. Storm brewing in Europe, bought EUO. Talk about UGLY!!!!
    4 Aug 2011, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • oh that stinks Guns... That's one hell of a swing.
    4 Aug 2011, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • DG


    I guess 3 bucks not a good time to buy?? I am jumping in but i see piranahs swimming by my feet. Got a queezy feeling about it but 3 bucks less??


    Thoughts please


    4 Aug 2011, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Wrong call I think. Silver should be sold last to silver miners and other miners. Unless you're totally out of the market selling gold and silver is the wrong thing to do. Of course, if your out totally it makes sense although that is really bearish and indicates a deflationary bent. It's hard to believe Obama and Bernanke will not increase liquidity.
    5 Aug 2011, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • EEV has been a safe and profitable hedge. It's not too late to get into it imo.
    4 Aug 2011, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » New QC:

    4 Aug 2011, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • (PCX) Patriot Coal down over $9.00 since it's miss. Was $24.50; now $15.36.


    Check out this Tickerspy performance chart of one week, one month, three month, six month and one year chart of a bunch of coal stocks:



    Well I'm at it, here's the same with some steel and stocks:

    4 Aug 2011, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • NF payrolls +117K vs. 46K for June. Positive response from market.


    5 Aug 2011, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • POT is holding up pretty well in this market. I guess they figure people still need to grow food.
    5 Aug 2011, 02:12 PM Reply Like
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