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  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for all the things you do for us Trip,
    17 Jul 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    TB: Ditto FPA sentiment!

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jul 2013, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Hey, where on the OBX are you, TB?

     

    I visited my brother's beach house on Oak Island last month. Grew up going to Jockey's Ridge to hang glide and Hatteras and Ocracoke for vacations. Love that area, especially the beauty of the more remote parts. But I rarely get to visit since moving to NY, and it has gotten built up and touristy in most places now.
    17 Jul 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Hatteras. The family (about 30+ this year, what with 3 new grandbabies adding to the herd) takes several houses each year about this time. It has indeed become less wild as the decades pass, but since I visit many coastal areas each year on the show circuit, it remains much less developed than the others on a relative basis...

     

    Now, did I prefer it in the wild old days of the early 70's? Absolutely. But times change.

     

    Oddly enough the grandbabies all seem to like me. I think its the white beard. Some atavistic instinct attracting them to santa-figures...

     

    I am doing some painting today. If anything works out, I may post an OBX pic next week.
    17 Jul 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Enjoy your trip, trip!
    17 Jul 2013, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    What fun, TB!

     

    We had a gathering that brought my parents, all siblings, and most of the grandkids together to celebrate Dad's 80th on Oak Island. It took two houses and a couple of hotel rooms.

     

    It was a joyous occasion, as I hope is yours!
    17 Jul 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Thanks TB,

     

    Get out for the early morning sunrise, coffee, and peaceful bliss.

     

    Jealous as hell here in Ohio but wishing you and your family a great time.
    17 Jul 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/13jc0yK

     

    I took an initial position in this stock recently. I have numerous members of their primary target market in my immediate family, all of which shop there, so there is every hope that they will complete their planned turnaround.

     

    I was tracking them back in 2008 in anticipation of taking a position for the same reasons when the past CEO went bonkers and wrecked the joint.

     

    Now it finally looks "ripe". As a habitual bottom feeder, I look for such opportunities.
    17 Jul 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Good pick. My relatives shop there, too. I've seen the catalogs and mall stores, but never really paid it any attention. The article makes good points about the target demographic, which I can certainly understand.

     

    Thanks, will take a look.
    17 Jul 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    I checked the chart and Cold Water skyrocketed yesterday, and is up another 4% today. Good timing Trip, but it seems the rocket has already lifted off.
    17 Jul 2013, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Sorry guys, I added this one last Friday and just got around to bringing it up. I hate trying to do this on an Ipad...

     

    But...

     

    As for the rocket already being launched, I see a potential upside somewhere close to $3 short term, and over $4 if they go cash flow posivite again (maybe 6 months out).
    17 Jul 2013, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    The pop today is because SA published an "Alpha Rich" article to its pro subscribers yesterday, released to us peons today. It started yesterday, and rocketed today as momos heard of it. Expect a pullback in a few days, and then get in.

     

    As you posted above: http://bit.ly/13jc0yK
    17 Jul 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    I think the momos are already leaving.
    17 Jul 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Boggles my mind that some 25 year old "youngster" named Kevin Kaiser has caused such a stir with Linn Energy. Now even Goldman has stated the sell off is over blown, and LINE is up over 7% today.

     

    Can Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Cooperman with $220M in Linn, Howard Weill and Raymond James all saying the same, all be wrong? It's beyond any rational understanding.

     

    Of course you know by now this youngster works for Hedgeye:

     

    http://bit.ly/18nJ3X7
    17 Jul 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    TB-

     

    You guys go to nice places- I just spent a week in Lincoln, Nebraska visiting family in 99F and humid!

     

    If it weren't for Coldwater Creek and Chicos my wife would be running around in her underwear! But wait- They sell underwear also!
    17 Jul 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    My grandfather is buried there. He and my uncle both (and both died of cancer from building Liberty ships in WW2). I have loads of family on my father's side in that area, though even more near St. Joe and down in Texas. All Germans who immigrated to the US and became wheat farmers, then expanded (some got into cotton and cattle down in Texas).
    17 Jul 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Yep-
    Lincoln is a city that never had a bubble, never had high unemployment, no high salaries, no vehicle inspection so you see several versions of BondoMobiles with various Buick, Ford and Chevy parts attached. People born there seem to stay except college grads who often leave because there are limited higher level jobs. My daughter has masters in three fields including Special Education which would get her $60 to $75K in most major cities but she got tenure and has moved up to $43,500. She's not complaining though- thinks it's a great place to raise my 12 year old g'daughter.

     

    Got to be the award winner for most boring metropolis in the US though. Rated highest in live ability too.
    18 Jul 2013, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Sometimes the copper colander just starts glowing....sitting on the shelf. What the heck is going on now.

     

    http://bit.ly/14Z1Xit
    17 Jul 2013, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    I've been following this story.

     

    It just keeps getting juicier.
    17 Jul 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Wow, Guns! What a cloak and "gagger" story!

     

    -- Although the LAPD ruled out foul play days after the incident, automotive experts questioned why Hastings’ brand new Mercedes exploded into flames with such ferocity and why the engine was found 150 feet behind the vehicle.

     

    Authorities cremated the body against the family's wishes? What did this guy know?
    17 Jul 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Even crazier was the link about how now a car can be remotely hacked and the brakes can be disengaged, or engaged. That the automated parking feature can be subsumed, and cruise control can be remotely hacked as well.

     

    I never had before thought of how all these new computer/safety type features, that the espionage-types can now remotely take control of a car and kill the occupants. Sheesh! Talk about unintentional consequences.

     

    And it looks even worse for pure electric cars.

     

    007 and Q now have another trick up their sleeve.
    17 Jul 2013, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Maya-
    This is a great book (allegedly accurate) about how a hit team takes out a number of people in diabolical, unsuspected and unprovable fashion.

     

    The Feather Men is a 1991 novel by the British adventurer Sir Ranulph Fiennes. A fantastic story on the very subject of which you speak.

     

    http://amzn.to/12xbvhB

     

    WT
    17 Jul 2013, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    An update - As of 7/17 mid-day

     

    Lightened up on the (LINE) positions.

     

    Closed out short PUT - LINE $23 August for a 72% profit.
    Probably should have waited it out but chickened out instead!

     

    Sold (LINE) Oct 29 CALL for a 30% profit.

     

    Maintain Calls On LINE

     

    Jan 15 , 30 Calls for $1.70 Now $2.70 up 57%
    Jan 15 , 35 Calls for $1.50 Now $1.60 up 2%

     

    Added to: CALL (AUY) JAN 17 15 $13  at $1.49 Down 20% now.
    Plan on adding on pullbacks.

     

    Added to:
    (NVAX) @ $2.58 now up 25%
    (VICAL) @ $3.79 now up 9%

     

    Notable positions:

     

    Gainers to date:

     

    December CALLs on (TCAP) up 71%
    December CALLs on (SLRC) up 56%
    (SLW) up 8% even with a 3.5% hit today
    (EPD) up 6%
    (EZJ) up 11% - Plan to add more to this already heavy position
    (VYM) up over 29% - Only ETF I re-invest- 25% of total positions.
    (CEMP) up 21%
    (CPST) up 9%
    (DCM) up 5.5% - May reduce this heavy holding
    (IRY) up 2.5%

     

    Losers to date:

     

    (BRY) down 5%
    BRY August $45 CALL down 60% at $.45
    (CVRR) down 3.5%
    (SWC) Oct '13 down 60% at $.45
    (AHRO) down 15%

     

    All the rest up/down marginally. Close stops on (DCM) and (CEMP).
    Trailing stops on most others. $1 to $2.50

     

    Up 7.7 % for the month so far
    17 Jul 2013, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Nice moves, WT! Well done!

     

    ####

     

    You guys are probably sick of me reporting on yacks with my broker, but this morning he called and we discussed LINE, and he noted most upstream MLPs are in great shape as long as oil stays above $70/brl, and nat gas stays above $3.

     

    He also stated that in the Wells rumor mill, is that what Hedgeye, and whomever was behind allowing Barons to publish Hedgeye's "findings," may have been in collusion, and that if/when the SEC determines that LINE has done nothing culpable accounting-wise, that the SEC may then investigate this whole swoon, and go after Barons, Hedgeye, and whatever hedge funds that were part of this bear raid.

     

    I'm not going to hold my breath on that one.

     

    Also noteworthy, lately, the crack spread has tightened, and may still tighten more. Refiners, like Valero (VLO) lately have retraced down about 20 to 25% since mid-May, but now appear to be moving back up.

     

    The sector rotational shuffle continues....
    17 Jul 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Maya-

     

    Thanks for the discussions w/your broker. More information helps us all make some bucks in spite of the heavies and unscrupulous.
    Please keep it coming!

     

    Hope the SEC and other fed agencies DO have a go at the conspirators.

     

    WT
    17 Jul 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Nice update, WT.

     

    My high yield pet play is looking better, extending the trend from last week:

     

    VLCCF up 19.6% (I may sell out half the position at 20%)
    NTI up 9.7%
    PDH up 10.8%
    QRE up 8.7%
    CHKR up 10.5%

     

    Overall up 11.9% on this raid so far.

     

    Coldwater has a more aggressive horizon plan, with a 20% sell point and a 60% upside (I may sell half the position at that point).

     

    I have also been averaging back into full positions for ARR and FSC, and actually expanding my long term core for PSEC.

     

    My SDRL calls are up 67%.
    17 Jul 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    High yield pet play is improving, extending the trend from last 2 weeks:

     

    VLCCF up 22.5% (I chose to be a bit greedy, did not sell out half the position at 20% just yet.)
    NTI up 8.6%
    PDH up 11.5%
    QRE up 7.9%
    CHKR up 10.9%

     

    Overall up 12.3% on this raid so far.

     

    Coldwater was flat today.

     

    My SDRL 10/19 calls are up 80%.
    18 Jul 2013, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Star dust might be where gold comes from.

     

    http://fxn.ws/15Hbs4C
    17 Jul 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    D.G.: According to many of the SCience channel docs I've watched, all heavy elements come from the stars - when they run out of fuel and collapse. The start is when H goes to He, and then heavier and heavier elements are formed when the atoms collide. When Fe is formed, the collapse of the star takes fractions of a second and then the explosion from the heat sends all those elements into the universe. The same effect is seen when stars collide.

     

    Over eons, the elements begin to clump, forming nebulea, then stars and planets, ... Meanwhile back at the ranch (the star) if it was big enough it forms a black hole, in fact a "super-massive" one, which seems to exist at the center of every galaxy known.

     

    You and I are children of the starts, as is everything.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jul 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    That would mean that the supposed aliens coming here are just distant cousins I suppose. Very distant.
    17 Jul 2013, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Exactly what the ancient Maya believed, that they were/are children of the stars (although, some Maya from the Lago de Atitlan area in Guatemala believed they were created out of the earth).

     

    For the longest time the scholars thought that the ancient Maya believed they were created out of maize, but over the past 20 years or so, that has changed.
    17 Jul 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Maya-
    I just read a great article on Mayan culture in History magazine published in GB. Cost one of my docs 8 Quid but I liberated it. If you want it just give me a PM mailing address and I will send wit on.

     

    WT
    18 Jul 2013, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    TB-

     

    Thanks for sharing those hi-yielders. I plan on lifting a couple for my tax-sheltered accounts.

     

    Think I like the (QRE) the best at the moment, then the (PDH).

     

    WT
    17 Jul 2013, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    4:25 PM Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP): Q2 EPS of $0.49. Revenue of $3.01B beats by $0.31B.
    17 Jul 2013, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    kmp is another rare intersect between Cramer and me...
    19 Jul 2013, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    I'll take it! (When I get it.)

     

    5:18 PM Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) declares quarterly distribution of $1.32/share, 1.5% increase from prior dividend of $0.1.30. Forward yield 6.08% For shareholders of record July 31. Payable Aug. 14. Ex-div date July 29.
    17 Jul 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    For those of you that have had comments deleted by Seeking Alpha's moderation facility and believe that that you may have been unfairly censored or that the criteria are way too tight (or loose, viewed another way), I've been working with David Jackson and Eli (top of the SA editor food chain) on this issue.

     

    Eli is handling the ball ATM and has permitted me to post his email for others who would like to give him additional input.

     

    I suggest a copy of the deleted comments, the full e-mail, if available, I guess is best.

     

    eli@seekingalpha.com

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2013, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Hard: I'm elated that you are in communication with David and Eli. I haven't exchanged PMs that often with Eli, but over the years I have found David to be both wonderful and prompt to communicate with.
    18 Jul 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Yes, and I was sure to let him know I appreciated his interest.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Very informative article on the effect of Brent/WTI margin's effect on refiner profit.

     

    http://bit.ly/12JWJr4

     

    WT
    18 Jul 2013, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    I am floored by the spread that used to be about $20 and has closed to about $1.50 now between brent and WTI. Seems something is askew or what was askew has been eliminated. I do not understand it enough to make a determination. I thought it was because the WTI was in glut because it could not make it to the world markets but no new pipeline is allowing it to move out so what happened. Rumor of the new pipeline?
    18 Jul 2013, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Wind: Thanks for posting this article. Though CVRR has one incredible dividend, and that Carl Icahn is driving this company, I just can't pull the trigger on this one simply because of the eroding crack spread.

     

    Will be interesting to track. Someday, maybe the spread will widen again, making for a good trade amongst the refiners. They surely are beaten down right now, and it looks more and more, because in part of the EPA's demands to lower sulfur content, making the refining process more expensive, that they will be even further beaten down.

     

    It's incredibly hard to predict what a barrel of Brent will sell for many months out, as well as prices at the pump, but given this contango environment, it looks like prices won't drop with any significance for a while.

     

    I need to spend some time someday and begin tracking the futures.

     

    ####

     

    My chef pal is returning today from a Maine family vacation, and bringing with him some lobsters. Tonight, he's making lobster rolls. Doesn't get any fresher around here. Yum!

     

    This afternoon, or tomorrow, I get the grand opportunity to drive over to the local Michaels (an arts and crafts and framing store) and pick up two pieces of fantastic art that our QuickChat leader tripleblack created. What fun! I gotta throw a hanging party!
    18 Jul 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Maya-

     

    You're welcome for the article post.

     

    Re: Crack spread-
    I was worrying about that also because of the Sulphur thingy but I figured that eventually it would get passed on down the line to the gas pump, like everything else. The achingly slow but plodding along "recovery" should serve to boost some refining as well.

     

    DG_

     

    Re: The new pipeline:
    Trucks are filling the transportation gap, I believe and rail is available but more costly than trucks??!! Go figure.

     

    Re: Maine-
    Spent five days in Camden in June- Wife ate 4-1/2 pounds of lobster in three dinners. I had a lobster salad one time.

     

    Re: TB Artwork:
    How did TB's artwork get to Michaels or are you just getting it framed there? Can we see what you're getting? I've checked out TB's Etsy website store.

     

    Still have your (LINE)? I have a wad of CALL contracts at various call points out to Jan 2015. All in the black now.

     

    {:-)}

     

    WT
    18 Jul 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Wind: Yes, I still have my LINE shares in the brokerage account. I sold off a couple hun in the gamer account, regrettably so. Still need the stock to go up around 20 or 22% to get back to even. The higher the stock goes, the more likely the Berry acquisition will go through in a few months. If that goes through, then I can see LINE trading upward, fast.

     

    I don't think the shorts have yet been conquered, and do expect another resurgence coming from Hedgeye and Barons, as well as a continued onslaught by SA authors like James Kostohryz, who's latest piece is rife with comments both pro and against his attack on whether or not LINE's maintenance capital and distributable cash is or is not materially overstated. He categorically says it is overstated, despite what all the investing powerhouses have to say. All the divisiveness makes for some entertaining reading.

     

    A key point here is that James is behaving very aggressively here on Seeking Alpha, attempting to round up 1000s of followers of his work. He even sent me a SA private email about a month ago inviting me to follow his work. Today, I attached to a comment I made in his article comments section, asking him to NEVER EVER do that again, because it's tantamount to spamming, and is in violation of SA's Terms of Use Agreement.

     

    What's next? Someone hawking energy bars and dungarees?

     

    I'm pretty sure tripleblack removed the Savanna, Georgia, Lighthouse Seascape from his website, as it is an original and I believe he never made any prints.

     

    The other work is a print of the Titmouse Chapel. It may be the last print available, so it too, may no longer be on his site.

     

    Yes, I'm just having Michael's do the framing, which I'm sure when I see the finished product, the oil and print will pop even more!

     

    I also already have his Minstrel original hanging over my study fireplace. I believe prints are still available.
    18 Jul 2013, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    As if on cue. ZH reading our post?

     

    http://bit.ly/14jvOEc
    18 Jul 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Damn keep them coming ZH more on oil and gas.

     

    http://bit.ly/14jw46h
    18 Jul 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Thanks guns for both of those articles. Harkens back to 2009 when Goldman was renting tankers with historically cheap daily rates, filling them up with oil, and then just letting them sit idle while they rigged the market upward.

     

    Guessing there will be scads more to read in the coming weeks, especially if oil continues upward, despite the record inventories.

     

    Oil this high could put a cap on how much further the stock market will rally...short term. All kinds of sectors could be negatively affected if these prices stay this high, from mining, to restaurants, to grocery stores, to chemical companies, to airlines (although some are already hedged), to transport stocks, to me coasting 300 yards trying to time a stop light, to....

     

    The record I'm not looking forward to seeing being broken is my July electric bill. It'll most likely be a doozy. Right now, one side of my home is about 5 degrees warmer than the side I'm sitting in now. French doors closed, bedroom doors closed, upstairs registers shut off, one thermostat much higher than the other...heck, I think I've got a crack spread going on right here at home ;-)

     

    BTW: The steaming of Fukushima made the front page of my Bing account.
    18 Jul 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    DG-
    I'm not sure this is a valid comparison but today's Brent spot is 109.29 while the WTI is 105.88. A spread of $3.41 however they are increasing in tandem.

     

    This is a chart showing the dramatic close over the prior months and what occurs currently.

     

    http://bit.ly/1avzCSR;chartView=

     

    See what you think.

     

    WT
    18 Jul 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    The Savannah Lighthouse painting was, indeed, removed (not good form to advertise something already sold). I don't have prints of it, although I am working on a Southern lighthouse series which will include a different version one day. There are 4 here on the OBX, for instance, including the famous black and white LH everyone has seen.

     

    I still have prints of the Titmouse Chapel, though like most of my works it is a very small limited edition of 100 prints.

     

    My current work is moving away from illustration and toward the surreal and the abstract. Oddly enough, older more established artists have an easier time capturing the attention needed to sell impressionist abstracts than youngsters - it seems that the necessary accumulation of scars and life experience is assumed to take many decades!
    18 Jul 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    They have different numbers than what I found-
    See below.
    18 Jul 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Hey, TB-

     

    Picasso was still becoming more famous at 92!

     

    Pardon my ignorance- What is the OBX?
    18 Jul 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    As American refineries confront new and higher environmental standards, we will simply start to close down the older refineries (and the older quadrants of updated refineries) and start to import finished goods. This will translate into all sorts of bizarre price increases (seemingly out of phase with oil production numbers or seasonal variances), but it will eventually dawn on folks what is really happening.

     

    A silver lining might be that this will likely solve the issues involved with using antique rolling stock to ship crude via railroads to equally ancient refineries on the eastern seaboard. Anyone who can catch the right investment the moment the Canadians lose patience and actually start to build their pipeline dumping onto their Pacific coast (and the inevitable tie-in from the American side with a short pipeline which can pump American oil north, across the border, and onto the new trans-Canada line) could make some real money.

     

    The vampiric effects upon the stumbling American economy will not be pretty. Several of us are already investing in pipeline operators paying high yields. Some of this group stand to benefit handsomely from this scenario...
    18 Jul 2013, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    As I recall Canada is currently exporting LNG to the Western US while we are exporting the same to Quebec and Ontario on the East coast.
    18 Jul 2013, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Outer Banks, NC.
    18 Jul 2013, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Location, location, location...
    18 Jul 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Nice location all right- I'm envious- Except in h'cane season.
    18 Jul 2013, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    LOL, I was referring to the LNG trade.
    19 Jul 2013, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    WTI passes brent prices. Holly crap!!!!

     

    http://bit.ly/197MPDq
    19 Jul 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    Aren't unregulated "free" markets just about the best'est things ever?

     

    Open interest says traders are willing to accept for delivery almost 50% more oil next month than we use and that ignores storage. I'm just glad that there is no excessive speculation going on and this is all just supply & demand with a little international tension priced in. I know that because JP Morgan (the world's largest public trader) says so.
    19 Jul 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Great article on refining. Incredible how many integrated oil companies have spun refiners off. I found the following extract stunning:

     

    -- Sunoco is importing gasoline from Borco's expanded storage terminal in the Bahamas, which has storage capacity of 30 million barrels, or 25% of the world's daily oil demand.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    19 Jul 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    "Aren't unregulated "free" markets just about the best'est things ever?"

     

    A free market is a market free of coercion. Thus, the alternative to a market free of coercion is a market full of coercion. What someone is really claiming by being opposed to a free market (regardless of what they hear on Dancing With the Stars) is they want a market where people are shot by other people that figure out how to use the coercion first.
    22 Jul 2013, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Over two years into this problem and now we have steam rising again at Fukushima. It might be out of the mainstream news but its not over by any stretch of the imagination. Thankfully my son is coming home Sunday but only to be transferred to California, right in the path of the radiation plume still wafting across the ocean.

     

    http://reut.rs/11ZI4tk

     

    Projected radiation over the next 10 years across the pacific. I am assuming this is a worst case but so far that seems to be what we are getting 2 years 4 months after this disaster. 

     

    http://bit.ly/11ZI6l2
    18 Jul 2013, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    The costs of government.

     

    http://bit.ly/15p7eyI
    18 Jul 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Miracle at the Fed continues. Stocks reaching all time highs.

     

    http://bit.ly/151zUPa

     

    Philly Fed soared from 12.5 to 19.8, slamming expectations of a modest decline to 8.0, and despite a drop in New Orders from 16.6 to 10.2, and a crash in Inventories from -6.6 to -21.6, the headline print coming at the highest since March 2011.

     

    http://bit.ly/1aTEzZx
    18 Jul 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    OK, with the Rolling Stone hype I thought this might help get some colanders glowing. Not sure if anyone else is looking at this..... question mark nor if it actually means anything.

     

    http://bit.ly/1brUY6P
    18 Jul 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    From Forbes -- July 26 Linn Options Begin Trading:

     

    http://onforb.es/120ymag
    18 Jul 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    I think that the July $27.50s are for those with mega arbitrage capabilities- both Puts and Calls, Long and Short.

     

    Writing the Puts would work out if you wanted to own the stock anyway. I'm not familiar with what the execution cost would be. I bought in the Puts I had written so I didn't find out that way.

     

    Good luck to anybody who gets them bot/written.

     

    WT
    18 Jul 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    For those interested in our Seeking Alpha moderation issues, Eli responded to me as follows this A.M.

     

    "There are obvious signs of overreaching here, consistent with other reports I've received recently. You can tell everyone I'm in active discussions with the moderation team, and will be working with them ensure that our policies are reasonable and recognize the preeminence of our superb community. It might take a little while to turn the ship, but you have my commitment that we will do so".

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jul 2013, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    My experience with attempts to "automod" via various types of screens has been that sometimes they work fine, but that it can get wierd, particularly when non-native English speakers make up the list of verbotten terms. Combine this with screens looking for blocked symbols (often used to also get around curse screening efforts) and...

     

    Innocuous messages go poof.

     

    If anyone sees a correlation with HFT algo's going ape and unintentionally wrecking the planetary exchanges, its purely...

     

    Predictable.

     

    To paraphrase: "He who lives by the computer will die by the computer". It just might be one of the oldest science fiction themes (literally dating to ancient Hebrew texts) in existance.
    19 Jul 2013, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    TB: One of my notes to Eli included the thought that normal interactions between adult and sophisticated (which SA uses to describe their audience) would include "surrogates" for common-use epithets and are often not considered all that offensive any longer (witness words used on CNBC, TMZ and other cable channels that seem to have a wide audience).

     

    I didn't address regional differences in words that might also affect the perception, such as "****ging fly balls" here is innocuous while in England that word is a sexual act. There's many others.

     

    I have some confidence that they'll refine the process to account for such.

     

    I also suggested to David that the moderation process required some "adult supervision" (hm, maybe they are our congress?).

     

    Anyhoo, the response is encouraging and hopefully the pendulum won't swing too far in the other direction.

     

    I believe strongly in a public "civility" that is more stringent than what could be quite acceptable in private conversations between parties very familiar with each other, but "tyranny" is to be avoided, IMO.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jul 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Oil Myths and Why WTI Is A Short

     

    http://bit.ly/18paFIe
    19 Jul 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Agree Maya, DUG could be a good play. Gas inventories rising along with the many other questions about this pricing.
    19 Jul 2013, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    I'm wondering...

     

    WTI finally matches and then outpaces Brent, and coincidentally we start seeing American oil dumping their retail outlet chains and closing down refineries, while enormous offshore facilities pop up all along the American periphery with the capacity to service a huge new demand for finished petroleum products (which it must be assumed are just starting to ramp up)...

     

    And this is all just a coincidence?

     

    Huh?

     

    What we are really seeing are the early tremors of a coming earthquake on the American energy front.

     

    Except its not really "American" oil anymore, as will become laughingly apparent after the quake happens.

     

    WTI in the context of actually being pumped out of the ground and then refined in the US of A will probably BE more valuable than Brent, and might just stay there for a long time. The remaining refineries (primarily clustered in the SW US (ie, Texas, Oklahoma, etc), after all, will need SOMETHING to do while waiting for the final nimby/strangling environmental costs to kill them off. Sure, its the latest chapter in the death of a thousand cuts process, but even the most skilled torturer eventually kills his victim.

     

    Now, how to make money off the death throes?

     

    Pipelines and middle men. Just as we have seen with the difficulty in making a buck investing in miners, and for similar reasons, American oil producers are now a far more risky investment.
    19 Jul 2013, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    trip: Your response is kin to what I've been "extra-extra" tracking over the last few weeks, much in part because of my Linn bet.

     

    Something albeit typically and yet shrouded deceptively HUGE is going on right now.

     

    The number one way to stall global growth is by higher oil prices.

     

    Upstream MLP's have been trashed because of some youthful outlander. Why?

     

    Downstream refineries are getting crucified because of the eroding crack spread.

     

    But is that all?

     

    There is absolutely no rational reason why the $107/brl oil should be happening, EXCEPT that the toppy market right now is completely and totally ready for abuse by the same sabotaging abusers as we have seen so often before; namely Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, under the guise of the Middle East issues, and allegedly US refinery constraints.

     

    Investors like you and me have been hearing and reading all about how much oil and nat gas we Americans and Canadians are producing; record stuff.

     

    And now, since mid-May, the WTI/Brent spread has had a more than $23 reversal. Why? So quickly? And even more important, how? Inventories are at record levels, yet still we are heading for $4.00/gallon?

     

    This has to be by design.

     

    And so nearing soon it's probably time to short oil. Just not yet.

     

    By design.
    20 Jul 2013, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Maya-

     

    I think your logic is on point. I don't understand the nuances betw the WTI and Brent spread but I do believe that oil is under aggressive manipulation. The guy from Gulf as much as said so.

     

    I was thinking oil storage capacity ala Kinder Morgan or some such but they are already there and most likely full up by now. Will more be built?

     

    The other major logistic is transportation- Pipe, rail and truck. No matter what happens the stuff needs to get moved around. Seems to me that the super tankers of the high seas and those that own them may be taking a bit of a breather soon, at least those that ship to the US.
    20 Jul 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    WWT: with more U.S oil production there should be lots of empty tankers available (mentioned earlier) to store like they did last time around. We had pictures linked that showed *huge* numbers of tankers parked and low in the water that were supposed to be full of oil at the time.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jul 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    HTL-
    In mid 1973 I owned a small construction business with five employees. Everyone had a truck and we put an average of 100 miles per day on each truck, and at around 12 MPG that meant I was using around 250 gallons of gas every week. I had done a deal with Agway a few years earlier that provided for them to give me a 1000 gallon tank complete with a concrete pad, fencing, electric pump with a backup and a monthly delivery to fill the tank.

     

    The gas lines were about a half hour at that point at the service stations. I had some friends that would be in deep stuff if they couldn't get gas so I let them buy my gas at my delivered prices. I was worried that Agway would cut me back, or even quit delivering gas.

     

    Nothing changed for two more months- Delivery around the 30th of the month. Then I got a delivery on the 22nd- Filled up. the next month i got a fill on the 15th- and then every ten days after that- Full fill for about 300-350 each time. I asked the driver about the shortage- Why was I getting so many deliveries. The driver told me that Agway had their own refining capabilities and had 8 freighters in NY harbor full of gas, nowhere to put it and couldn't obtain any more freighters. That just left the customers' tanks.

     

    I had a lot of very thankful friends.

     

    WT
    20 Jul 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    WWT: Having also lived trough that, but without the benes of a friend like you, I never knew what was going on. I just knew I had to plan carefully on my trip back west through Kansas, including a 7 hour wait for the only station with fuel for a large number of miles around to open.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jul 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    Hear you loud and clear on "tremors of a coming earthquake" in American energy, Trip. Not so sure I concur in anticipated strangling environmental costs killing off remaining U.S. refineries.

     

    U.S. refinery capacity in April (most recent EIA data available) was at highest level observed since 1984. Utilization rate was 92.8% in week ended Jul 12.

     

    I'm thinking a deeper look at recent prices on alternative crude oil streams (including heavier, more sulfurous crudes) might be worthwhile. WTI is a better raw material for low sulfur transportation fuels than is Brent (higher API, lower sulfur %) and relief of transport bottlenecks on WTI would in and of itself result in WTI/Brent pricing relatives. Since several U.S. refineries are configured to process heavy oil sands/Venezuelan Orinoco, etc. one should expect prices of those heavy crudes to decline relative to WTI, Brent on increased availability of WTI.

     

    Additionally, OECD member embargo of Iranian crude likely factors into offshore buildup of crude oil inventories.
    20 Jul 2013, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    >MAYA-

     

    "And so nearing soon it's probably time to short oil. Just not yet."

     

    Did you mean us, or the manipulators?
    20 Jul 2013, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Mine was a forward-looking comment. EPA standards for industries like oil refining are entering a phase of very steep upward steps. Should the current administration abruptly become more like the Bush administration (which was famously criticized for blunting the effort to push the oil industry into meeting tougher standards), we could indeed see a continuation of the current high operating levels at American refineries. For instance, the high quality of the liquids created from all the new fracing operations means that more of the old refineries can operate as they need the high quality feedstock. It is thought however (with strong justification) that the current administration has no special sentiment for the oil companies, and we will have no such outcome...

     

    The article Maya linked above contains numerous examples of the sort of moves by the oil companies we can expect. These have already happened. Perhaps the scenario I lay out will NOT play in that direction, or some new ex post machina technology like fracing will save them once again, but its how I think events will unfold.

     

    The best hope would be for something similar to what we see happening in Australia, a pulling back from the brink, but we are, in relative terms, far behind that particular curve. I expect we will push past the brink before our own coyote vs roadrunner moment.

     

    But the refineries are only a tiny portion of the bigger picture. The flood of news about American oil divesting themselves completely of their retail outlets in the United States is a big, and under-appreciated, story (this includes Exxon, btw, which I believe the author failed to mention, perhaps because they sold off their retail arm over a year ago). Selling off or closing down refineries is also a "tell".

     

    One other time I saw a similar situation involved the period when Japan Inc. was buying up landmarks all over the US, from movie production houses to famous golf courses and Radio City Music Hall. That time the local boys (who after all KNOW what their stuff is really worth, and where the market might be going) almost literally took the Japanese to the cleaners, selling very high and ultimately buying back very cheap. Perhaps we will see this cycle repeat for the oil industry, with foreigners paying large amounts for branded chains selling fossil fuels (or refineries doing the same) just when the entire market becomes commoditized to an entirely new level, while simultaneously America switches to a raw material supplier for others who turn those raw materials into useable products (which they then sell back to us).

     

    One industry where this process is well-advanced is in lead acid battery recycling, where leading companies like JCI have moved the huge bulk of their recycling to places like Mexico, avoiding the extremely high environmental standards in the US (in this case, those standards are approximately 10 times higher than those in most other countries, even including environmentally aware places like Canada). UNTIL the standards were rocketed into orbit, these American battery makers did their recycling here, but standards changed and so did the location where the work was performed.

     

    Perhaps our national leadership will experience a collective epiphany next month, and start doing things differently - but short of that, this really is not a difficult thing to predict. Apart from the collective epiphany fantasy, I suspect the best thing to hope for is something near and dear to a crony capitalist/socialist system - a bureaucratic delay formulated to create conditions where key, favored politicians can pick the pockets of wealthy corporations one more time. Nauseating as this is, we may well be better off economically (short term) if the oil companies run the numbers and decide its better to keep doing business in the US so long as the necessary bribes are xx$ per year. If the politicians are not TOO greedy, it might be that we see a substantial delay in the planned disassembly of American oil.

     

    Barring that, I believe the article's author has it right. American oil companies will divest themselves of extraneous and annoying things like refineries and retail outlets, and focus solely on pumping as much money as possible out of American soil. Whence the oil and gas then flows will be up to the new owners of the rest of the oil infrastructure.

     

    Time will tell if I am right that all these structural changes will create waves with WTI prices (I mentioned how volatile I expected them to become in a comment a few weeks back, I believe).
    20 Jul 2013, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Just for an exercise in suspicious behavior for oil, know that the SeaWay is open for business @ 400k bbl/day as of mid June and several other PAD draining lines running at capacity. Now compare & contrast our recent run-up in WTI with day rates while "official" reported storage is barely falling enough to cover use. All this while production is at multi-decade highs.

     

    http://bit.ly/134JfTq;jsessionid=CBA831BFF8...

     

    http://bit.ly/134JfTs

     

    http://yhoo.it/134Jg9J

     

    http://bit.ly/134Jg9L

     

    Could be grounds for a good conspiracy theory here to bring supplies back in line with historic averages. Meanwhile, a worldwide construction boom is happening in "private" landbased storage which is not subject to reporting. Now who would do that?

     

    Anyway, manipulating inventory is a very profitable game. I thought this might be a group that could find this article about how Goldman does this in metals interesting.

     

    Commentary: http://bit.ly/134Jg9N

     

    Source: http://nyti.ms/134Jfmi
    21 Jul 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    DRich: thanks for those links! I used to track oil shipping rates as a watch for when to think about certain shipping investments. I quit tracking last November 26, 2012.

     

    http://tinyurl.com/nyj...

     

    The particular class I was tracking, Suezmax, averaged $11,107 over the last 30 days I tracked and $8735 the last six days - continuing low rates seem to be prevailing today suggesting that lots of spare capacity is still in the system. When I say "low rates", it's really relative to post-2007/8 periods where we saw common rates in the $32K-$35K per day for this class. The current rates seem more consistent with a better balance. If we see the rates skyrocket, I think it suggests either large demand increase or shipping supply reduction through a couple mechanisms: scrapping older ships or more being used as floating storage.

     

    I view this akin to eying China electricity usage to check on their reported GDP numbers, although not as easy to correlate.

     

    HardToLove
    P.S. Off to read the links - thanks again!
    21 Jul 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... The rates being low is how this is allowed to happen and be economical for the banks to do. Skyrocketing rate would be very, very bad because that would be due to actual Economic activity.

     

    It is the last two links that are really important. If ever you have a chance to stop this nonsense of manipulation and get back to a real economy, action, by people like those that read this forum, is required quickly. Probably is tilting at windmills but making noise in the right forum could help. Read the link marked "Commentary"
    21 Jul 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    DRich: I'm getting to them, but remembered one more I wanted to pass on in case you weren't aware of it - "real-time" futures stuff for free.

     

    http://bit.ly/16SFQbz

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: The charts are handy too and have "live charts" too.
    21 Jul 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Thanks. Everyone should use this link.

     

    It has been on my screen daily for the past 3 years. Basic Sector watching.

     

    Here is a link to another, I find, very useful "live chart" site.

     

    http://bit.ly/117OFiN
    21 Jul 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    Thanks DRich - bookmarked that one too!

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jul 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    Drich: Read the last two, which were unsurprising since we've known for a long time what they and JPM did with gold and silver manipulation, via the futures. And don't forget that JPM bought their own warehouses a couple years back for the gold and silver so they could more easily hide their activities in the markets. Being the manipulative and ingenious crooks many of them are, and in bed with the hirelings in the government regulatory agencies, this is just a new wrinkle in the on-going shenanigans.

     

    "Doing God's Work", as Blankfein claimed, after all, requires "creativity".

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jul 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Not to worry. Progressive thinkers are running the country, and a flexible, living Constitution (ie, elastic law) will easily stretch to cover any of these topics.

     

    We just have to trust that they have our best interests at heart.

     

    Easy.
    21 Jul 2013, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    DRich: " If ever you have a chance to stop this nonsense of manipulation and get back to a real economy"

     

    Two chances: slim and and none?

     

    Anyway, after reading those last two, I think something like Alcoa, or a mid-stream entity, might be a good play for a quarter or two since the statement was that folks had started going to the spot market for their material.

     

    I'm pretty sure most (many?) factories, now being JIT-based, can't do 16-month lead times to get their input. So they should be doing what others are doing - going to the spot market or finding other sources, if there are any.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jul 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Unsurprising indeed. I've know about this for years also. The mildly surprising thing is where the story has surfaced and the fact that for a brief instant actual people have a chance to be heard & ignored in a very official, public forum. Things will only change with participation and then only slowly.

     

    If all that is done is to continue grousing about government is as good as saying you totally agree with what goes on & just enjoy the exploitation. Makes no sense to me unless you're a willing part of it. I don't hold the illusion anyone here is part of the 1% (but may dream of it) but all movements need supporters and the move to oligopoly & corporatism require disgruntled people willing to do nothing at all meaningful.
    21 Jul 2013, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the elaboration, Trip. I agree that downsizing pressures on petroleum refining and marketing due to tighter EPA standards are at work but assign somewhat lower direct impact weight and larger effects to (1) other government programs supposedly prompting "greening" of the economy and (2) developments in domestic energy production.

     

    Some American oil companies are disinvesting in refining and marketing as noted by Maya and yourself. Some of those companies (Exxon for example) are also expanding domestic production of oil and gas. I interpret both as reflecting market outlooks for the different industry segments.

     

    U.S. consumption of petroleum products is stagnant and steadily de-linking from U.S. economic output thru substitution of alternative fuels (butanol, ethanol, renewable diesel, LPG, CNG, LNG, electricity, etc.) for refined petroleum products as well as due to rising energy productivity due to phased introduction of more stringent CAFE standards & rising miles per gallon of transportation fuels. Preservation of transportation fuel share will require continuing investment in facilities to handle those fuels, investment capital that can be deployed more productively elsewhere. Growth opportunity in marketing refined (and alternative fuel) products domestically is limited to capturing greater market share and would elevate already strong political resistance to further concentration of market power in hands of "big oil."

     

    Since U.S. crude output is rising and refined products can be exported, growth in refining opportunities is possible but forestalled by nimby and EPA constraints. And, refining costs could easily be pushed higher by increasingly stringent EPA regulations. To me though, sensitivity of economic activity and public attitudes to fuel prices at the pump pose a constraint on severity of EPA regulatory actions on refining.
    21 Jul 2013, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Government policy has been shifting strongly toward alternative energy sources, which is all well and good so long as we avoid burning bridges today based upon pie in the sky predictions of immaculate energy conception "tomorrow". Lamentably, I see clear signs of conflagration amid our current energy infrastructure, while the alternatives are still largely carboard cutouts borrowed from old issues of Popular Science.

     

    Production expansion plans are conditional upon objective reality (political and otherwise). What we see today is, as I alluded earlier, an astonishing example of a scientific breakthrough (fracing) occuring JUST ex post machina in order to prevent energy policy catastrophe in this country over the past 5 or 6 years.

     

    Had this miracle NOT occurred, we would already be well into the energy abyss. Lamentably, we now see clear signs that, having dodged one self-inflicted mortal wound through no agency of its own doing, the political class is convinced of its own invincibility.

     

    We are of course agreed that American oil and gas producers are planning to extract all the valuable fossil fuelstock they can... So long as it can be done profitably. The same forces which have rendered much of the energy business in the United States unprofitable, however, are focused upon oil production as well. The amazing gains in efficiency and productivity which the new technology creates are also incredibly alluring for revenue-hungry government.

     

    This topic of course encompasses the political questions pertaining to whether or not it is "good" to design developed Western economies around a zero-growth model. I do not agree with this policy, but like many things being done, I cannot alter this reality. Economies which are not growing, and wherein their industrial and civilian components are in fact steadily contracting, will indeed see energy use follow the same path (unless the government sector greatly increases its consumption, which would be unlikely without entering a war footing in a major way). The oil companies divesting themselves of retail outlets (utterly tied to American markets) are just acknowledging the same reality. Closing and selling off their American refining assets does the same, to the extent that those refineries are only profitable if they can sell to a strong American economy. Unlike the retail chains, of course, well-located refineries can be re-directed toward exports or used as storage and allocation facilities.

     

    The problem with exporting American refined products is that foreign competition is usually more modern, more advantageously located, and operating with cheaper overheads - and that is assuming other issues like environmental and safety regulations are equal (which usually are not).

     

    Time has shown that the buying public WILL adapt, eventually, to higher prices at the pump. At one time I believed that once the public realized just how much of the price of each gallon of fuel flows to various levels of government, that a strong push-back would occur - but it has never materialized. I have no faith in this factor as some sort of reliable governor to hold back tax and regulatory loads.
    21 Jul 2013, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Re: MLPs

     

    Interesting Forbes article on adding to the yield of already held MLPs using several option write strategies.

     

    Strategies include writes on Linn, BreitBurn, EPD, KMP and ETP.

     

    http://onforb.es/16QBl1h

     

    WT
    20 Jul 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    Interesting juxtaposition of Forbes article, oil prices, refinery spreads, etc.
    20 Jul 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    D-inv-

     

    Forbes seems to have a fixation on MLPs and energy issues right now. Energy is represented in about 45% of what I currently have interests, and as Trip and others have noted there is money to be made in this flighty overpriced market.

     

    As an aside I have once again dabbled my toes in PMs as well.

     

    The manipulators seem to have gotten most of the blood out of the PM stones and have been shifting to energy. Won't be long before the Perfect Storm is on the horizon. The setup is in play.
    20 Jul 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    China going to Gold backed yuan? Leaving US backed yuan-
    This, if accurate won't be good for the greenback.

     

    http://bit.ly/15wifOQ
    20 Jul 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    Really ill advised move for China's economy. Sounds like a PM miner or streamer initiated rumor to bolster gold (and share) price.
    20 Jul 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Good article on the benefits of banning banks from commodities- Or the horrors that could arise if they are allowed to play with all commodities-

     

    Some cynics actually believe that banks would use the QE bucks to do some manipulation of commodities. Tsk, Tsk-

     

    http://bit.ly/13v2lFw

     

    WT
    21 Jul 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Yes. I believe there is collusion between government and the 2Bigs (as in "too big to fail"), although a more realistic characterization renders this observation a strong oxymoron... After all, the banks are merely executing the government plan, which centers around flooding 2Big balance sheets with free money while the 2Bigs work diligently to keep inflation (such as commodity prices) in check.

     

    I came to this conclusion over 2 years ago, when I departed precious metal mining stocks. Its just another example of the wisdom of the old saw: "Don't fight the Fed".

     

    Now we are seeing this strategy metastasizing into every nook and cranny of the commodity universe, and it should not be a surprise.
    21 Jul 2013, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Kind of like-

     

    Q- "What's the price on WTI, today?"
    A- "What do you want it to be?"
    21 Jul 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    I caught on to the unholy alliance way later but I thought the 2Bigs' mission was to backstop the fed and intervene with stock purchases when necessary to keep the S&P beast afloat and just allow moderate corrections hoping that new found wealth would buoy the economy.

     

    When I see what has happened to first PMs and then energy I can obviously discern the manipulations but am not totally confident that I have the game plan.

     

    Is it simply to have the 2Bigs as hired guns so to speak- stepping in whenever the Lone Ranger is neededto protect a favored crony interest? and in return they get the spoils at our expense?

     

    Now that I have keyed in the post it makes more and more sense to me that it may be exactly what's taking place.

     

    WT
    21 Jul 2013, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    "First Reading On EPS And Revenue Beat Rates"

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    They admit it's early in the reporting cycle yet. Very short read, a couple disturbing numbers, IMO, considering how much the bars have been lowered to make everything seem so much better.

     

    I'm still leaning towards 2nd half of the year to be not so great and weaker than the first regardless of ZIRP, QE, ... as the spiraling ever upward number of jobs being mostly part-time can't support continued GDP expansion at desired levels as input prices respond to the exported inflation now being imported back to us and other "home groan (sic)" costs are piled one upon the other onto the backs of the "middle class" consumer.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jul 2013, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Thus far my personal scorecard is looking VERY much as I expected. The inner circle of cronies are doing great, the secondary circle "good", and the tertiary players only "fair"...

     

    All others are hanging on by their fingernails.

     

    Why is it that I keep seeing lurid flashes of an illustration depicting the structure of Hell as described in Dante's "Inferno"?
    21 Jul 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    It seems the tailings of old US mines might have REEs in them.

     

    Gold rush-era discards could fuel cellphones, TVs

     

    http://yhoo.it/13w3ug2

     

    "If I had to venture a number, I'd say we have found several dozen new locations that are elevated in one or more critical metals," Koenig said. "With this project the goal would be to have this large data base available that would allow us to predict and to form new associations."
    21 Jul 2013, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    The tailings of LOADS of different mines contain REEs, though the key is finding those that are concentrated enough to make them profitable - extractable with inexpensive processes - and located near the place where the extraction and processing will occur. For decades miners have known how to add a line to their plants to extract things like REEs, and never did (titanium miners, for instance). The numbers just never added up.

     

    GWM is pursuing a secondary strategy in South Africa that revolves around tolling titanium mining waste processed through their STK facility. This takes advantage of all the factors I mention above.

     

    REEs are NOT particularly "rare", as the old saw goes, but commercially exploitable concentrations of them ARE.

     

    I am wondering how close the various potential sources like this in the United States, for instance, are to MCP?
    22 Jul 2013, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Re: (CPST)

     

    New YTD high for Capstone- just hit $1.40
    22 Jul 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    >Tripleblack-

     

    Looks like Motley Fool is reading your posts as well-

     

    http://bit.ly/1aDXcNl
    22 Jul 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Yes. All 3 from my list, and I SHOULD have snagged CVR when it dipped, but it caught me unprepared.

     

    Current status:

     

    High yield pet play is improving, extending the trend from last 2 weeks:

     

    VLCCF up 23.4% (Again, I choose to be a bit greedy, holding for now.)
    NTI up 8.9%
    PDH up 15.6% (nice bounce, I hope you bought in last week WT)
    QRE up 8.8%
    CHKR up 15.3%

     

    Overall up 14.4%, best result thus far.

     

    Coldwater is up slightly (.8%).

     

    My SDRL 10/19 calls are up 100%.
    22 Jul 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    TB-
    I picked up:
    (PDH) up 3%
    (http://bit.ly/MOzZyP) Flat
    (http://bit.ly/MJxG1d) FLAT

     

    I also added more to (http://bit.ly/Zue5Cw) which is still down 5% in aggregate.

     

    (http://bit.ly/u1d6zb) calls $43s August up 12%, 44.85s January down 6%

     

    The (http://bit.ly/Zue5Cl) and (VLCFF) make me a little nervous though I still do like Knightsbridge and will likely dip into it a little. Ford Equity and Altivo both have it as a HOLD.

     

    Sure do wish I held onto the (http://bit.ly/12HoKMu). Might be worth a look yet.
    22 Jul 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Trip-
    My stock symbols in my post are appearing as code addresses. Clicking on them works but the symbols are not shown- At least not on my screen.
    22 Jul 2013, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2144) | Send Message
     
    WT,
    I've had that problem when I edit a previous comment. I have to go back and re-edit the symbols.
    22 Jul 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Still-

     

    I can no longer edit- Time expired.

     

    Wonder if I will get comments?

     

    Funny that (PDH) is OK. I did move stuff around a little. Recall it happening before but I went back in and re-entered stuff so it was OK
    22 Jul 2013, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Its OK. We all understand how this happens. You can repost with updated links if you want, but I think the info works as is.
    22 Jul 2013, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Trip-
    Will leave it as it is.
    22 Jul 2013, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    It seems to me there was some speculation here as to why gas prices are so high.
    Bob Lutz seems to think it's the ethanol mandate.

     

    Blame Ethanol for Spike in Gasoline Prices: Lutz
    http://yhoo.it/1403Qi4;_ylt=ApctDysWDMFAztgj...

     

    "As a result of the 2005 Clean Air Act, refiners need to blend a certain amount of ethanol into gasoline every year, and every year the amount they blend in goes higher and higher," Lutz says in the attached video.

     

    He says as long as U.S. gasoline consumption is going up, the 10% ethanol blend mandate "is not a problem." However, he points out that American gasoline usage is currently down and has been falling for the past four years, and recently touched a 13-year low. As a result, Lutz says refiners have hit "the Blend Wall."

     

    "It has created a situation where refiners have to mix 10% ethanol into the gasoline they make — even though the market can't consume it all," he says, noting that most vehicles on the road today can't handle any more than E-10, as the mixed gasoline is known.

     

    Now here's the tricky part. In order to adhere to this federal mandate, Lutz says, refiners have been buying ethanol credits, known as RINs (Renewable Identification Numbers), to offset their obligations. Predictably, this surge in demand for RINs has pushed the price to record highs.

     

    "The price of these credits has gone from pennies on the dollar at the beginning of this year to almost $1.40 today, including a massive spike up in the last couple of weeks," Lutz says. "I would think the recent move that we've seen in gasoline prices, towards year-to-date highs over the last four months, half of it has been due to this ethanol policy."

     

    Adding to the dilemma is the fact that refiners are exporting the gasoline they can't sell here, which keeps inventories low and prices high. And if you think that's bad, just wait until E-15 comes to market in 2015. Despite protestations — from automakers, the AAA, refiners, oil producers, outdoor power equipment manufacturers, and the American Petroleum Institute — the Supreme Court refused to block the increased use of ethanol required by the EPA's Renewable Fuel Standards.
    22 Jul 2013, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    A discussion on Chinas gold and move towards taking away the dollars dominance as the world reserve currency. From winteractionables.com.

     

    A trip to the site might give you all some interesting reading.

     

    http://bit.ly/1aE1JQ1
    23 Jul 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Re: LINN (LINE)
    Want a really good analysis of the company's operation? Casey Hoerth provides it here.

     

    http://bit.ly/15dxxJe

     

    WT
    23 Jul 2013, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Further to my prior post on (LINE)

     

    http://bit.ly/13AXm6l
    23 Jul 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Further to my prior post on (LINE)

     

    http://bit.ly/13AXm6l

     

    WT
    23 Jul 2013, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if Snowden would like to borrow my copper colander?

     

    http://bit.ly/13ZDGEQ
    23 Jul 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, DG, but I gotta call utter BS on this one.

     

    "Unbeknownst to victims or their loved ones, HAARP projects ultra-high-powered radio waves. Those waves operate at the same electronic frequency as the truncus encephali, or brain stem, selectively inducing deaths seemingly by natural causes – including by some appearing to coroners as innocuous as strokes or heart attacks."

     

    Anatomically and scientifically beyond implausible and into the realm of psychosis.

     

    I seriously doubt Snowden said any such thing.
    23 Jul 2013, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin
    You don't think they are following his every move so they can burn him as he walks down the street? Without burning down the bystanders?
    23 Jul 2013, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    I have no doubt that the evil people in our government, who cloak themselves in righteous patriotism, wish to see Snowden dead or imprisoned for life, and may use whatever technology they have to accomplish that end.

     

    But "ultra-high-powered radio waves" broadcast and directed from a facility in Alaska to selectively fry the brainstem is Roswellian X-files nonsense.

     

    Even if DG had tongue firmly encheeked, this was too cuckoo to get even a chuckle out of me.
    24 Jul 2013, 01:00 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    "Ultra High Powered Radio Waves" is so eighties.

     

    I would go for the implant like the Invaders From Mars put into the base of the scull of the people that fell into the hole. This way they could send him back, read his brain and have him telepathically transmit data and info from wherever he was before they triggered the destruct button.
    24 Jul 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2214) | Send Message
     
    Don't the UHPRWs come from Mars? How could I have been so wrong! Which side of the house should I cover with the metal foil?
    24 Jul 2013, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    The floor of the basement. They are subterranean. And it has the added benefit of helping to block radon gas if you do it right...
    24 Jul 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Are you kidding, my tongue was absolutely not in my cheek, I had my tongue firmly in my copper colander. I thought it was so wacked out that I offered up my copper colander for him to borrow. Maybe my sarc switch seems to be totally locked down in reality at times but I believe some folks go well beyond tin foil hats to the point that they need something more robust.....like a copper colander.

     

    I will say that I no longer dismiss every tin foil hat story, I used to laugh hysterically at them, because some of them have been proven true so.....I now laugh inside but keep an open mind to some things that just might have some truth mixed in with the wacky and some of the wacky just might be true.....that frightens me at times.....for my own sanity. I have to ask myself at times is this world that friggin crazy....yep is often the answer.....so yep scares me.

     

    Now as far as Snowden actually making that statement.......see the microwaves are starting to work on his brain stem and he is spilling the beans. Maybe the russians are helping by keeping him in a special room that focuses those beams at the airport so he is left telling all to the russians. /s

     

    Put in the sarc switch just so you know where my tongue is.....still in the colander but someone with a thin foil hat might pick up on this and get a great story out of it. LOL

     

    New headline "Russians focus HAARP beams to get Snowden to reveal all!!!" or "Snowden left a babbling idiot by HAARP beam".

     

    SMaturin I think the internet should come with a disclaimer. "Welcome to the wide world of the internet, no go out and buy a copper colander......if your sanity is going to survive it."

     

    Otherwise stay in the basement. LOL
    25 Jul 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    TB I wonder if all those basement dwellers even consider radon gas.....maybe they should all be wearing plastic bags over their heads to protect them.........Please no one do this it will kill you....just keep the tin foil hats on that works too....LOL
    25 Jul 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    I recently introduced my 17 yo son to Kubrick movies. He absolutely loves Dr. Strangelove, especially the psychotic General Jack D. Ripper's theory about communist plots to contaminate and steal our "precious bodily fluids."

     

    He likes to make t-shirts with iron-on computer-created graphics, and has gotten very creative with the process. He is now working on that Precious Bodily Fluids theme.
    26 Jul 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Antecedent apologies for the following double entendre, but...

     

    Is the whole culture of tipping strippers going to "change?"

     

    http://nbcnews.to/19gvKY7
    23 Jul 2013, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2144) | Send Message
     
    Hiya Maya,
    Going the way of cow tipping. ;-)
    23 Jul 2013, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Maya-
    You're right!
    Some of those in the industry would react quite negatively to some cold wet coins dropped in rather than dollar bills being carefully inserted.
    24 Jul 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Might reintroduce the $2 bill. Strippers could see a boost in income. I wonder how many vending machines would be obsolete then. What is that cost or retrofitting.

     

    Hey the kenesians would love this for its boost to the economy.
    25 Jul 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    12:00 DST

     

    (SAND) trading @ $6.20
    (SLW) trading @ $22.81

     

    WT
    24 Jul 2013, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    Double pipe top I think.

     

    Bulkowski’s Pipe Tops http://bit.ly/1aJcPTQ

     

    Yesterday, elsewhere, I posted we had a volume spike suggesting end of trend. Today, it's not only dropped, but made a pretty nasty pattern that suggests more drop could be in the cards.

     

    Bill
    24 Jul 2013, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    I have been expecting another spike down, and this could be the beginning. Normally one sees trouble hit the miners first, then the exchanges, and finally the royalty streamers. This makes sense when the anticipation is that a price move is short term, and the longer term plays (especially streamers) will not really be affected.

     

    AFTER a longer period of price drops, however, the roles swap. Miners have already taken their hits, and are depressed. Streamers are now in the spotlight, and further drops will hit them disproportionately hard.

     

    In this case gold is getting trashed stronger and quicker than silver (which again agrees with the script I have been expecting to see play out), so gold streamers are getting hid harder than silver.

     

    If all this is just old hat for everyone, ignore me, I'm prone to repeating myself...

     

    Anyway, I expect the last spike down (IF this is it, and its early yet) to be very brief (days or weeks rather than multiple months, I think).

     

    Another issue is the disappearing PM stockpiles on the COMEX. We are close to the point where the exchanges can be expected to take defensive steps designed to wrest gold from strong hands and put it back into the market. One way to do this quickly is to monkey with the margin ratios and fees, which although already "tight", could be modified further. When last we saw this sort of situation in silver, 5 consecutive margin calls were engineered by the exchange, to the great cost of small and medium sized investors working on margin...

     

    Fair warning. Nothing has changed since last time - no new regulations were installed to protect the little guy from huge, predatory manipulators.
    24 Jul 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    TB: Sorry! I just noticed I forgot to sat this double pipe was for (CPST)!

     

    Shame on me for being so careless.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jul 2013, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    LOL, no problem. My comment was in response to the drop today in SAND and SLW, of course. Frankly, I suspect the same charting commentary works for them right now.
    24 Jul 2013, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    Think there is potential for drop below $1.2 (~17% drop)?
    24 Jul 2013, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: For (CPST)? I don't think so as we are approaching reporting time and *normally* there's a run up into that. However, the last three reporting periods the shorts have increased their positions, natural with a price rise, and if they start to get really frisky, it's possible.

     

    However, a couple weeks back I did surmise, on another board, that a re-trace to $1.20 looked possible with possible aborting of the move by support at the extremes of the gap below ($1.27-$1.23, IIRC). It went right to the $1.27, overshot 1c and then took off for $1.50.

     

    So I've still got buckshot primed for two price points, $1.24 and $1.20, to be decided when I see the charts around those areas.

     

    However, I've not checked the charts recently - with the highs recently the Fibonacci points likely changed and those working targets might need some preliminary adjustment.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 05:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    I have been monitoring CPST for years, and occasionally buying and selling, and my personal goal has been to see their share price hit $1.50 and "stick". I think I am one more cycle away from taking the plunge, assuming it can hold something close to recent results.
    25 Jul 2013, 07:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    Clarification on my (CPST) comment: "last three reporting periods" s/b "last three short position reporting periods".

     

    Sorry for any confusion.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 07:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    TB: With the Russian start up of an commercial distributed generation entity now beginning and the recent entry into China with first orders there, I believe we'll see the "17 consecutive quarters" continuation of improvement in ... i forget - margins, revenue, ... ? And the order book too which, IIRC was showing a book to bill of 1.1:1 even with the EZ in the doldrums.

     

    So I do expect a decent quarter even though I don't expect any orders from the new Russian DG entity to appear yet. Most of the improvement should come from the COGS as the newer lower-cost materials are now the majority of inventory I believe and should be hitting ever-larger percentages of FG rolling out the doors.

     

    "Sentiment" stuff touched on in the quarterly report that I think will have a big effect is the large NYC RE developer that has committed to CPST in their buildings. This is a first step into a developing sector, previous one-off installations on existing buildings notwithstanding.

     

    This may be enhanced by the "resurrection" of Designline buses with the recent order they received.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Yep, that touches all the bases we talked about back when, HTL. Getting a handle on COG was my biggest problem in 2011, followed closely by firming up sales prices (improving their international sales network is the biggest single step forward they have made since then, imo).

     

    I have always liked their technology and the niche markets which are open to them.
    25 Jul 2013, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    After the miners get hit hard some fail and the contracts they have with the streamers don't look so good so that is another problem with the streamers....they are not selling metals they suddenly are selling real estate in a tough market.
    25 Jul 2013, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the robust response, HTL.
    25 Jul 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to WT, Trip, HTL for commenting on the respective issues.

     

    Have been thinking buying opportunities in SAND, CPST might lurking around the corner.
    24 Jul 2013, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    SAND's share price is now indicating a gold price of about $1000 per ounce, so it is "leading" the market a good bit. It is likely to lead in the opposite direction when things settle down, too... One to watch. Canadians in particular might consider their Warrants.

     

    SLW will behave in a similar manner, though with more gravitas due to its size and the different dynamic operating in the industrial silver marketplace.
    25 Jul 2013, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    I re-entered a position in SAND this morning at $5.88
    25 Jul 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Good luck, D-inv I hope it works out!

     

    WT
    27 Jul 2013, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Copper colander time or true puzzler? open mind....open mind, open mind, ooooo never mind.

     

    http://bit.ly/13fUEzE
    25 Jul 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    This is too rich for words:

     

    Peter Schiff does Stand Up Comedy

     

    http://bit.ly/12nIn1j

     

    New Yorkers stay for the final punchline. Priceless.
    25 Jul 2013, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    He certainly has the name for it. LOL
    26 Jul 2013, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    SMartin: Hilarious! Thanks for starting my weekend off with many chuckles.
    26 Jul 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    7/25 Update at close-

     

    (SAND) trading @ $5.96
    (SLW) trading @ $23.26
    25 Jul 2013, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Goldcorp (GG)

     

    2013 guidance of between 2.55 and 2.8 million ounces of gold production with all-in sustaining cash cost between $1,000 and $1,100 per ounce.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    26 Jul 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    If that is true, and their average selling price this year is somewhere around $1300-1400, they should see profits over 20%.

     

    I don't believe that. They will do well to break even.

     

    When they close out 2013, look at their bottom line and see if it is possible to see those real cost numbers at work. Reality will be more like $1200-1300. Perhaps they will reference some unforeseen expenses, or unexpectedly high costs in some area...
    26 Jul 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Yes. I the Q&A there was discussion as to non-cash impairment due to new mine development ($1.96B) and that a $1200 price would result in further additional R&D and operating expense adjustments to higher operating cost operations.
    26 Jul 2013, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    1.) "We’ve also reduced our outlook for G&A and exploration spending for the year. The new G&A guidance is $164 million and exploration has been reduced to $200 million."

     

    2.) "Starting with Red Lake, production totaled 122,500 ounces at a total cash cost of $523 per ounce. Production decreased as expected compared to the first quarter as favorable mining sequence in the first quarter provided higher grades in tonnage in the High Grade Zone as compared to the second quarter."

     

    This might be part of the answer. However keep in mind this is the investor relations guy making these statements. Don't expect ANY THING negative.

     

    That second statement says they mined out the easy high grade stuff at Red lake in the first quarter to get an average cost of $523 per ounce and now are mining the harder stuff.

     

    There is a lot to digest in that article but its a good read. Thanks WT.
    26 Jul 2013, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    For the third quarter, provisional pricing Peñasquito reflects 350,500 ounces of gold priced at $1,192 per ounce. 2.4 million ounces of sliver priced at 18.86 per ounce, 18.1 million pounds of gold priced at $0.93 per pound, and 31.8 million pounds of gold priced at $0.83 per pound. While as Alumbrera will reflect 25.5 million pounds of copper priced at $3.06 per pound.

     

    I wonder if that 83 cents and 93 cents gold PER POUND has anything to do with the figures. Something is out of wack there. I bet its zinc or some other metal they mistakenly called gold.
    26 Jul 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    LOL, DG, how about you and I buy up all that $.83-.93 gold? COMEX would be calling on us...
    26 Jul 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    If memory serves they use what they call "Gold equivalents" so that if they get Silver or whatever else there is out with the Gold they convert the Silver value to what ever Gold is worth at the time and then refer to the whole thing as "units." Supposedly simplifies the accounting process rather than coming up with a cost/benefit for each metal.

     

    I believe Copper meant for colanders are treated as a separate item though.

     

    WT
    26 Jul 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Did we not say this!! Smuggling of gold in India soars.

     

    http://bit.ly/1bqgp91
    26 Jul 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    There is a direct correlation between the percentage of smuggling and the percentage of taxes. I would think the ratio tends to climb as the numbers for taxes do, ie, at low tax rates the ratio very low as the risk/reward equation doesn't work. At moderate tax rates the ratio starts to increase, as the rewards become slightly attractive...

     

    And at high tax rates, it explodes.

     

    The Indian government will be lucky if they can keep their tax revenues level with their history BEFORE the new taxes went into effect. I would not be a bit surprised if they actually saw revenues go DOWN.

     

    LOL, I expect them to react by FURTHER increasing taxes to compensate. A vicious spiral will result. At some point the level of profits for the smugglers will become so large, they will become an organized crime syndicate and a threat to the power of the government itself, as well as a corrupting influence able to keep the tax levels high and their own power intact.

     

    Of course, all this will have the pundits and analists issuing "data" about dropping demand, even while physical metal keeps disappearing from the vaults. They will be puzzled by this, but will trust the "official" numbers even when they are totally ignoring the black and grey market growth.

     

    Predictable.
    26 Jul 2013, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    "China Cuts Capacity in Some Industries to Reshape Economy"

     

    http://bloom.bg/1aMSb5c

     

    Well, there's bad news for some of the commodity producers, as well as everyone else that things China's managed GDP growth will keep the ROW afloat the second half of the year.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Jul 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    I saw they are doing a mini stimulas too.

     

    http://bit.ly/1bVbtbJ

     

    Not looking up for them at all.
    26 Jul 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Maybe we should be more worried about a new wave of adulterated products coming out in mass from China. I try to stay away from anything that goes into my body or my pets body simply because of all the past problems.
    26 Jul 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    The new "shape" will be an intricate network of very large cartels owned and operated by the government or by the oligarchies that own the Communist Party.

     

    The clueless Western leadership has stumbled into the tiger trap, and their response to the crisis is...

     

    To promptly fall asleep.
    26 Jul 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    "To promptly fall asleep"

     

    Well, if it works for the hog snake, it must be good, right?

     

    HardToLove
    26 Jul 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    LOL, I think both the opossum and the hog snake only PRETEND to sleep. I am hearing actual snores from the tiger pit.
    26 Jul 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    The hog snake will on occasion defecate too. Wonder if that is why the tiger pit full of western leaders smells so bad. They tried that first.
    26 Jul 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2214) | Send Message
     
    My prepper friend finally received his 1 oz silver "stagecoach" bars from NWTM. Over 3 months after his invoice date. They originally quoted 2 months and 5 days.

     

    The bars are very shiny and are sealed, apparently air tight, in clear vinyl pouches, 10 per pouch. Each bar is individually sealed in a pocket of the larger pouch. I was impressed with the care in the display packaging and in the fiber tape reinforced shipping package.

     

    He calls the silver "monetary insurance".
    26 Jul 2013, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    My last order has been delayed by 30 days. So now its gone from the 10 weeks to 10 weeks and 30 days. Physical silver shortage reality slapped upside my face.
    26 Jul 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    hillbilly, those bars sell really well on ebay at a nice premium. Just so your friend knows to look there if he is interested in selling at some point.
    26 Jul 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    RE: SILVER-

     

    Just got my delivery from Kitco.
    I placed my order on 22 July,
    Wired payment on 23 July,
    Got notice that my wire was received and my order shipped 24 July
    Got my delivery at 12:30 today

     

    $1.30 per oz brokerage fee, $30 shipping $20 insurance

     

    Best arrangement I could find and no wait- four days between order to delivery

     

    WT
    26 Jul 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    I paid similar broker fee, no ins and no shipping but I get to wait. The wait is worth the $50 savings but if the shortage gets worse a wait could result in no delivery. We are not there yet......"yet" being that which needs watching.
    26 Jul 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    >DG-

     

    $50 works out to be 25 cents per oz. Larger amounts would result in maybe 15 cents. Kitco does have a minimum dollar amount of $2500.
    It appears the shipping is $30 regardless of size and the insurance is $7.50 a $1000 for Silver and $4.00 a $1000 for Gold.

     

    Did you already pay? I had to send a confirm of wire initiation and Kitco wanted the money at their bank before shipping (which was only two days). Interest income is beans right now ....well maybe corn a better example, but sounds a lot like 2-1/2 months- Could add up if you prepay.

     

    Today Silver is 50 cents less than what I paid so timing is everything!

     

    My wife wanted to know what we were going to do with all of the 10 oz ingots- Told her a half dozen would make a nice necklace.

     

    Would you believe she gave me a look?

     

    WT
    26 Jul 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    We occasionally buy jewelry pm's from Kitco (primarily gold), but rarely. Normally Rio Grande has much better prices for jewelry findings, wire, and plate goods (keep in mind that we are NOT talking about coins, blanks, or bullion ingots here). In the past, however, I have seen examples where heavy plate in sterling silver (.075% copper and other metals, not .999 silver by any means, but the math is simple) was priced under the bullion market (even after deducting for the trace metals) by a good bit if one was buying quantity.

     

    This has never happened for gold in my experience, however.

     

    I recently picked up some sterling serving pieces for about $12 per ounce, net (some had steel fittings, copper rivets, etc). That takes some haunting of sales and flea markets, and patient negotiating and trading. I have purchased items labeled by the seller as "silver plate" which was sterling, for instance (should I feel guilty for doing this?).

     

    Anyway, just as with many stock investments, I find that trading on a steady basis rather than buying and holding long term works for me. Of course, being in the jewelry business, LOL, "holding long term" means the business is not doing well!
    26 Jul 2013, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Want To Burglarize A House With Impunity, Then Nickle-And-Dime The Restitution? It Helps To Be A Bank.

     

    http://bit.ly/15lRi1o
    26 Jul 2013, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Interesting article. I didn't catch the libertarian connection (of course, it looks like they have found some individual they are characterizing as "left libertarian" who would somehow be in favor of what the bank did). LOL, I'll just ignore the libertarian slam, its nonsense of course...

     

    The lady should simply do what any good libertarian would do in such a case - sue the bank's socks off. I don't agree that it's a civil matter (as the author points out, a crime was committed), but its also accurate that the local prosecutor must not agree, so her route to redress is via the courts.

     

    Of course, I would be seeking FAR more than "replacement value" of the damages and missing possessions. The bank committed a criminal act, and it is certainly NOT her insurance company!

     

    In fact, I really wish some bank WOULD do that to me. I would end up a lot richer and they would be a lot poorer.

     

    I hope she hires a good lawyer - heck, a whole tribe of lawyers. And they take it to a jury trial in Mississippi.
    27 Jul 2013, 05:15 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    TB,

     

    I did not get the impression the author was slamming libertarianism. Perhaps he could have been clearer in his exposition of "left-libertarian" vs "conservative," but it seemed to me he was saying that even a "left-libertarian" who thinks the State should be the champion of "social justice" would not condone this corporate use of state power against individual rights.

     

    I have found the "world's smallest political quiz" http://bit.ly/14UNTJl at The Advocates for Self Government to be an excellent way to clarify one's thinking about pure libertarian philosophical consistency. I challenge all to take it and then think about their responses, in terms of which situations they favor government power and which they favor individual rights. I have taken it several times over recent years, and started in the border between Libertarian and Conservative. As I have examined my premises for the beliefs in rethinking my political views in the past decade, I have found I have moved to the extreme apex of pure libertarian in the map.

     

    This recent Mises Daily essay by Lew Rockwell, The Libertarian Paradox, is also an excellent fundamental primer on clear and consistent principles of liberty. I shared it with my teenagers and urged them to examine their own beliefs. http://bit.ly/14UNSox
    27 Jul 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    >SM-

     

    I took the quiz- It says that I am a reactionary, anti-law, liberal, anarchist leaning CENTRIST!
    27 Jul 2013, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >Windwood Trader ... I think that disorder of called Schizophrenia. I took the test too and found I'm not as Patriotic, God fearing, law abiding and the socially well adjusted Liberal I think I am. More Centrist
    27 Jul 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Boy, are you mixed up! ;-)
    27 Jul 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >SMaturin ... I'll continue trying to become a better Liberal. Living in Texas makes being a Christian and defender of the Constitution's ideals a lot more difficult. I guess some of the bad influence just seeps through. Diligence.
    27 Jul 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    Interesting little quiz. I was a bit surprised by the strong Libertarian valuation returned on answering the quiz, mostly due ambiguity in some economics related questions such as whether one believes in free trade.
    27 Jul 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    I have taken this test before. Only one question I disagree on so I always end up solid Libertarian but two blocks to the right.
    27 Jul 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    DR,

     

    I was referring to WT. But you sound just as cuckoo.

     

    That's a professional second opinion. Free of charge.

     

    Only us libertarians got our haids on straight!
    27 Jul 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    >SM-

     

    I also hate everyone regardless of nationality, color, creed, place of original birth, religion, political party, sex and I don't like vanilla ice cream either.

     

    But I'm really a nice guy-

     

    WT
    27 Jul 2013, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2144) | Send Message
     
    WT,
    There is a line in a Dirty Harry movie "Harry isn't prejudiced, he doesn't like anybody".
    27 Jul 2013, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Folks referring to the Mises site always makes me smile. Great article. Thanks.
    27 Jul 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    What's it mean when I'm two grid lines to the right of the top of the diamond? It claims the Libertarian party is closest to what I believe.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Jul 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    >DRich-

     

    The truth is out!

     

    Now I'm totally beside myself-

     

    (;-)}

     

    WT
    27 Jul 2013, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    He da Man!
    27 Jul 2013, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    :-) Libertarian of the 3rd kind?
    27 Jul 2013, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (865) | Send Message
     
    I scored 70 personal, 50 economic
    27 Jul 2013, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    HTL thats where I fall in. Solid Libertarian. Welcome to the party.....um well I wish it was bigger.
    28 Jul 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2144) | Send Message
     
    Hiya DG,
    Another Libertarian here. Still discouraged about the way the media and the repubs treated Ron Paul. I may not be in total agreement with the man, but he had many good ideas that should be part of the public discussion.
    28 Jul 2013, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    D.G: I think what got me off dead-center Libertarian was belief in universal draft. Maybe it's just a hangover from what happened in the Vietnam war, but I went around thinking "If one goes we ALL go"!

     

    The unfair exemptions and concentration of the conscripted from lower-income and minorities rankled me.

     

    N.B. I volunteered and volunteered Airborne and ... and those idiots 4F'd me because I had a minor disc out of place and they were afraid they might have to pay a pension. No problems to this day. Was I fit? Yep. 34" standing vertical leap.

     

    Meanwhile, IIRC, they were chasing Joe Namath and such.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jul 2013, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    I guess the "analysts" didn't lower the bars far enough for the companies to clear them and assure us suckers that "things really are better". Think I'm too much a cynic? From the article "In a way, that makes Alcoa Inc.’s AA earnings, which are the traditionally start of earnings season all the more poetic seeing the aluminum producer only beat the earnings consensus because analysts had slashed estimates weeks before the report."

     

    "Earnings surprises running at second narrowest rate in 4 years: Factset"

     

    http://bit.ly/14Uhgve

     

    [HTL] But it's all good - employment is rising! They don't bother to tell us much is due to more and more people have part time jobs (counted as employed and "jobs created" I suspect), multiple jobs, work 30 hours or less a week in any one job, ...

     

    HardToLove
    27 Jul 2013, 06:58 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    >HTL-

     

    "They don't bother to tell us much is due to more and more people have part time jobs (counted as employed and "jobs created" I suspect), multiple jobs, work 30 hours or less a week in any one job, ..."

     

    Save some room for me on that cynic's bench of yours.

     

    The number of UNDER-employed and those working for lower paying jobs increases steadily.

     

    The increases in those employed don't come close to the increase in the labor market every month.

     

    All the hype only serves to improve the perception of "Increasing economic wealth of the citizenry." that will supposedly drag the economy up with it.

     

    I do suppose it is possible to fool many of the people all of the time.

     

    WT
    27 Jul 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Its definitely possible to fool ENOUGH of the people most of the time. In fact, this happens with some regularity, and the Demicans and Republicrats count on it.

     

    I remember a fascinating SF story from the 70's that flipped the "illegal immigrant" issue on its head. The author was (I think seriously) positing a near future when a dominant problem for the United States was "illegal exit" by citizens fleeing the country.

     

    He missed his prediction by about 5 years, near as I can estimate.
    27 Jul 2013, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    John Mauldin on jobs, the economy and health care and other interesting issues. Sobering.

     

    http://bit.ly/15pK50r

     

    WT
    28 Jul 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18051) | Send Message
     
    WWT: Too bad those that theoretically could reverse course on the ills JM touches upon are blind beyond their own borders.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jul 2013, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    >HTL-

     

    Right on point!

     

    WT
    28 Jul 2013, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    For those that have been following the story on the reporter killed in his new Mercedes while investigating the CIA. Here is a site that has some of those copper colander moments but has some good info on how to take control of your car. Onstar anyone. Its part ways down this article.

     

    http://bit.ly/12TcSqX
    27 Jul 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Surely you all know that the NSA is getting a LOT bigger, but did you know that the NSA is building two new spy facilities that are SEVEN TIMES bigger than the Pentagon? Pictures included below:

     

    http://bit.ly/13lPlOt
    27 Jul 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    >MAYA-

     

    Good thing they are part of our government and they're to help us!
    27 Jul 2013, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Well now you know where the office is where you can get a back up copy of your hard drive if it crashes, probably a copy of your phone contacts if you lose your phone too!!!
    28 Jul 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Another great piece from Mises Institute.

     

    Civilization Means Privacy

     

    http://bit.ly/15pIuYq

     

    <<By engaging in mass surveillance of foreigners through US companies, the US government has now put the entire telecommunications and computing industry of the US economy at a competitive disadvantage against any other country willing to impose stronger privacy standards on its own security agencies. Moreover, the emerging losses to the credibility and customer base in the US telecommunications and computing industry will have a flow-on effect in all other countries—it signals the negative economic consequences that come from using this industry for the purposes of mass surveillance of the public. Competition between different governments creates disincentives for unwarranted surveillance by punishing the industries of countries which do not adequately satisfy the privacy requirements of consumers.>>
    28 Jul 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, and add in every website you've ever visited, every text you've ever made, and likely someday soon, if not already, a recording of every telephone call you'll make. Further, everywhere you travel, go out to eat, at which stores you shop, where you get your hair cut, manicures, pedicures, and what you post here on SA will be monitored, too. Heck, they'll probably even be able to track Harry Potter when he's enshrouded within his magic, invisible cape!

     

    Safest way to communicate now? The good old fashioned letter... with a stamp, as long as that letter is created on some machine not connected to the I-Net.
    28 Jul 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Has anyone tried using the TOR browser? I have it downloaded but have not given it much attention so far. Seem to be hung up some how.

     

    I DO like the concept that would- if true answer a lot of privacy issues you cite, Maya-

     

    WT
    28 Jul 2013, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    The only problem with the Mises article is that it operates from the underlying assumption that ONLY the American government behaves this way. Wrong. Many others do this, and much worse. Sadly, I see the American intelligence agencies seeking to "compete" with their leading opponents, and this is just one area where that competition flows.

     

    The US intelligence agencies also participate in this practice to fulfill their obligations to allied foreign agencies who they routinely enlist to directly monitor American citizens because American law forbids THEM from doing it. This work-around is old news, really.

     

    I am fond of the phrase "Elections have consequences", but this is one area of common ground between Demicans and Republicrats alike. This sort of behavior stretches back to FDR in an unbroken chain of the new administrations signing off on the latest version without hesitation or qualm.

     

    Another area where the 2 faces of the same political coin have been building a common railroad track to a common goal with the only variable being that they take turns driving the choo-choo.
    29 Jul 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    If you are referring to the "Civilization Means Privacy" article, I respectfully disagree about the assumption of "ONLY" American arrogance. It was written by an Australian, and he clearly stated:

     

    "The foregoing competitive principles apply even when all governments are repressive in nature, since a decentralized structure still imposes incentives to be less repressive than the other guy — to compete for the same customers. Hence, the foregoing observations should not be taken to require that privacy and property rights are any better respected by governments outside the United States. In fact, many foreign governments are far worse than the US government in terms of their privacy laws, though their lesser technical capabilities deprive them of the capacity to be as intrusive. Other governments have the same contempt for privacy evident in the functioning of the US government, and many allied powers have actively cooperated with the activities of the NSA, making them partly responsible for the mass surveillance operations in question."

     

    I suspect he originally wrote the article for an Australian audience, as a warning against the encroaching surveillance state there. I visited Australia last November, and was impressed by the openness and freedom-loving nature of the people, but astounded at the ubiquity of state surveillance cameras. One of paradoxes they have to struggle with.

     

    I am wholly in agreement with you regarding Demipublicans.
    29 Jul 2013, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    OK, let's see if there is any evidence in the article that it "... operates from the underlying assumption that ONLY the American government behaves this way."

     

    The first paragraph of course mentions loads of other nations doing this sort of thing:

     

    "Since the details of the NSA programs became publicly known a short time ago, already there are signs of market pressures being brought to bear to curtail the actions of the agency and its partner companies. There are early signs of emerging boycotts of US-based internet and telecommunications companies, and customer migration to firms operating outside the United States.[1] One observer has even suggested that the next desirable IT feature will be for host companies operating outside the US to advertise that they are “not subject to US law” and this suggestion is gaining traction among IT commentators. According to one commentator, “The biggest concern right now is that if US firms lose their credibility, people in other countries might look to take their business elsewhere. Government officials have been desperately trying to cover their tracks at home, insisting that PRISM is about spying on foreigners and not US citizens, but how does the rest of the world feel about this?”

     

    Hmmm, not so much. No mention of such programs existing elsewhere so far, but let's continue:

     

    " By engaging in mass surveillance of foreigners through US companies, the US government has now put the entire telecommunications and computing industry of the US economy at a competitive disadvantage against any other country willing to impose stronger privacy standards on its own security agencies. Moreover, the emerging losses to the credibility and customer base in the US telecommunications and computing industry will have a flow-on effect in all other countries—it signals the negative economic consequences that come from using this industry for the purposes of mass surveillance of the public."

     

    Still laser sharp focus on the US, but the next sentence does mention the competition:

     

    "Competition between different governments creates disincentives for unwarranted surveillance by punishing the industries of countries which do not adequately satisfy the privacy requirements of consumers."

     

    No mention of other intelligence agencies actually doing what the American NSA and cohorts are, but it does explain that by talking about competitive disincentives. A good argument against the things the American NSA does, of course. iAll fine, but still looking for a focus other than upon the actions of the American intelligence community.

     

    "In fact, many foreign governments are far worse than the US government in terms of their privacy laws, though their lesser technical capabilities deprive them of the capacity to be as intrusive. Other governments have the same contempt for privacy evident in the functioning of the US government, and many allied powers have actively cooperated with the activities of the NSA, making them partly responsible for the mass surveillance operations in question."

     

    Again, some hope that another national intelligence operation other than the US will be named and held up to ridicule, but no, it appears "...their lesser technical capabilities deprive them of the capacity to be as intrusive." "Allied Powers" is a near miss, though, other than the mistaken caveat that only the US has the tech to be "intrusive". Again, wrong. In fact, the US no longer MAKES the technology we use, so the source is in Asia for all such. The playing field has been leveled for quite a while, and if I had to guess, I would estimate that the NSA is now a 2nd rate krew no longer able to access the latest and greatest from the Asian tech centers.

     

    Here's a good quote to dig down to the "underlying" misconception:

     

    "...even among different countries operating in an unofficial US empire". Its easy to understand American arrogance when influential information sources hold these misconceptions.

     

    I agree that the article mentions a macro-economic element in the potential downstream ramifications for American companies attempting to sell goods and services to people who believe they are also being put upon by the American geopolitical goal of maintaining global hegemony. The concept that such policies should NOT be emulated by other governments even when they cannot hope to be as intrusive as the American version really doesn't distract much from the US focus (succinctly laid out in the opening paragraphs of the brief article).

     

    I detect a strong hint that the bit about privacy is really not the real goal of the author, whereas he is laying a foundation for transferring control of the WWW to an ill-defined "world" organization which yet is NOT the UN or any of the existing political groups. This fuzzy sort of agenda is distracting, imo.
    29 Jul 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    This Friday short article from Economic Matters w/many links attached talking about rising markets and a dissatisfied populace.

     

    http://bit.ly/13mvzlR

     

    WT
    27 Jul 2013, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2918) | Send Message
     
    Re: Support from the author in Friday's article here for the purchase of Silver in all forms.

     

    Makes quite a bit sense to me but see if you all agree with the thesis postulated-

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    WT
    27 Jul 2013, 08:16 PM Reply