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  • QC#261 312 comments
    Aug 21, 2013 10:00 AM

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Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

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  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    Art work!!! Your spoiling us TB.
    21 Aug 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Lovely!

     

    Mondrianesque Phoenix.

     

    Thanks, TB.
    21 Aug 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    oops.

     

    not so lovely.

     

    That's a phizzog to launch a thousand tomahawks!
    28 Aug 2013, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19390) | Send Message
     
    Many thanks for the continuing support of the QuickChat!

     

    HardToLove
    21 Aug 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Interest rate increases for mortgages pop new real estate bubble...

     

    Except, not so much.

     

    What it appears to have done is apply a cattleprod to the 'nethers' of vacillating buyers.

     

    The prospect of further future interest rate increases could ignite a short-medium term scramble to lock in low rates and make deals.

     

    Human nature is never linear.
    21 Aug 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    In my opinion, any numbers released from the NAR are suspect.
    21 Aug 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    Remember that 60% of sales are for cash. Could be the cash buyers that have stepped up. Speculators not home buyers so to speak. I have no clue either way just I am like Rattie, I trust nothing any more.
    21 Aug 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I never believed the cash story either. The value of money is dropping, so why buy with cash? I don't see how you make money with that kind of deal. Is the cash explanation just a cover for the huge drop in mortgage applications when the interest rates went up? Or is some entity that does not care about profit propping up the market in order to allow interest rates to be increased?
    21 Aug 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    Really? Considering that the biggest buyer is Black Rock, I believe
    those are recorded as cash transactions.
    Guess what they are doing now? They are slicing the rentals up into tranches and marketing them to individuals and leveraging it. Sounds familiar...vaguely familiar.
    21 Aug 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    OG,
    ARE THEY REALLY DOING THAT? OMG HAVE WE LEARNED NOTHING.
    21 Aug 2013, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    We've learned. Those guys, not so much. There is our glorious housing recovery. Hedge Funds spent a billion on reo to rentals just in Tampa FL. It's going on all over the country and it's skewing the so-called recovery in housing. Och-Ziff did it for awhile and already got out of the business--it's not as profitable as they thought it should be.
    Here, chew on this:
    http://bit.ly/14kfYZ6
    21 Aug 2013, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    Like chewing on 13 year old moose meat. Its not so good it hurts my jaw..
    21 Aug 2013, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Wait until they find out what happens to those rental properties...
    21 Aug 2013, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Wait until we find out that the guvmint will bail them out again, at our expense, just like last time...

     

    BUT not until they extract billions in short cycle profits from the process.

     

    Its the 21st century's version of the corporate raiders of the 1980's and 1990's. Sneak in unobserved, drive down the value of the target, sweep in and scoop it up for pennies on the dollar. Then gut it for the valuable bits, dump the rotting carcass to cover the costs, and walk away whistling with the crown jewels and a pocket full of cash...

     

    The major difference is that now even the limited risks those old raiders took are being absorbed by the crony government.
    21 Aug 2013, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    I have a dream, that one day the banks will be let to fail.

     

    Martin Luther King VI
    22 Aug 2013, 06:01 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (960) | Send Message
     
    And that those who commit accounting control fraud will be prosecuted...
    22 Aug 2013, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Now we are slipping into delusional states!

     

    Call the men in white!
    22 Aug 2013, 08:03 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    We are the men in white and we are from the govt and we are here to help and we are going to help.......ourselves.
    22 Aug 2013, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2698) | Send Message
     
    Won't the Heggies already have their money out of it by selling the packaged debt? What did I miss?
    23 Aug 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    This author (link below) believes that the price of silver has risen as a result of speculation not supply and demand. I am still waiting on my delivery that was delayed from 10 weeks to 10 weeks and 1 month. I can only look at that issue and think that supply seems to be impacted but I do not have a crystal ball.

     

    I did look at the comments and wonder about a person called Zenon who commented ""The Sept. cobasis collapsed in the middle of the contract roll" - that show a demand (or lack of supply) of physical since open positions will have to be physically settled.

     

    "The Dec. basis is no longer negative." Well that means that shorts of paper (Dec. contratc) are pulling back. When the Dec. and Sept. contracts were in backwardation, silver was under the most pressure and reached its lows."

     

    "Is this guy a genius or what?"

     

    I usually buy at a high point it seems so I will add this. I bought yesterday after silver plunged a buck and then surged back past that.....I took that as a sign of strong support but did not want to jinx the market for the rest of y'all by screaming buy, buy, buy.

     

    http://bit.ly/19Jc9Bc
    21 Aug 2013, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    >DG-

     

    "I am still waiting on my delivery that was delayed from 10 weeks to 10 weeks and 1 month. I can only look at that issue and think that supply seems to be impacted but I do not have a crystal ball. "

     

    That time limit is unacceptable and doesn't make any sense either.

     

    Could it be that they are banking on a drop in price before they fulfill your order? Sounds like it to me.
    21 Aug 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    They (NWT Mint) always have had a 10 week delay. I got an email at about 8 weeks stating that they were adding 30 days to that and that if they were unable to deliver to that schedule I could sell my position at the present price of silver. They make coins for so many people that they must have a long lead time to reset the lines to process other coins I would guess. I bought coins from Great Panther mines and the coins showed up from NWT mint but there was a shorter delay, no 10 week delay IIRC. CRS and all.
    21 Aug 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    Take a look at california numismatics, the wait is shorter. www,golddealer.com
    21 Aug 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    Prices look pretty good, OG.
    Thanks
    21 Aug 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    Your welcome.
    21 Aug 2013, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    Thanks OG. I was specifically after "Get out of dodge silver" I had to go there.
    21 Aug 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    I love how they market their bullion. It's so much fun!
    I also like the silver bullets. Particularly the ones that look like little rockets. TB could make a box scene with one as a rocket and one of his outer space scenes behind it and they would sell like hot cakes, imo. You've got to do something so the silver bullet doesn't oxidize, coat it with rhodium maybe?
    Bullion turned into art, that concept has great appeal.
    21 Aug 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    .999 silver really doesn't tarnish that fast (sterling silver is .925 silver and has a large minority of copper in the alloy that creates the tarnish problem, which is probably 30 times worse than with pure silver - the silver/copper alloy is literally fighting itself). We have been moving toward .999 silver for our higher end goods...

     

    Bullion also doesn't turn the same shade of orange, mostly because (again) it doesn't contain copper.
    21 Aug 2013, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    FYI-TB- I have NWT bullion in soft plastic sleeves and it turns black from tarnish particularly around the edges, and that is .999.
    22 Aug 2013, 02:05 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    OG you must have a humidity problem. Hmmmmm Florida did you say. I think I found the problem. Move to Michigan and that problem will be resolved. Course YOU might turn black around the edges then from frost bite.

     

    Something I have noticed about tarnished silver bullion.....it spends exactly the same as the untarnished stuff. I actually like the looks of the coins with a bit of tarnish because it makes the images stand out better. My eyes are getting....well.... older.......
    22 Aug 2013, 06:07 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Yes, it will tarnish black instead of orange/black. Almost all metals ultimately tarnish, even all gold alloys other than pure gold (14k gold tarnishes, though at a slower rate than silver). What I'm saying is that good bullion tarnishes much slower than Sterling silver.

     

    There are "anti-tarnish" strips which can retard tarnishing in silver which, if sealed inside with the silver will slow it down further, but nothing really stops it except a physical barrier.

     

    Salt air (near the ocean, usually) accelerates the process.
    22 Aug 2013, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Silver tarnish is typically from trace sulfur compounds in the atmosphere, such as H2S, which often occurs naturally in well water (rotten egg smell) and is produced from combustion of fossil fuels. Even "low-sulfur" diesel is not totally sulfur free.

     

    Here is a fun bit of chemical magic to convert the tarnish back into silver:
    http://bit.ly/17MX23W

     

    It is really cool to watch! I have done it with old silver dollars.
    22 Aug 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    I guess the message for india is that suppressing gold does not necessarily support your currency. I would say it highlights the problem with your currency and causes panic. LOL

     

    http://bit.ly/14CBMeW
    21 Aug 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    Is impeachment on the horrizon? This might explain BO's previous support for the muslim brotherhood in egypt. This could really roil the markets as more comes out.

     

    http://bit.ly/14jf3In
    21 Aug 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (3147) | Send Message
     
    How North Korea Got Hooked on Crystal Meth

     

    http://on.wsj.com/14k8hSI

     

    Methamphetamine use has become epidemic in North Korea, according to the journal North Korea Review. The WSJ’s Alastair Gale tells Deborah Kan how one of the world’s most secretive nations became addicted to crystal meth.

     

    It started with the elite.
    Estimate 40-50% of the people in the Northeast are addicted.

     

    A warm and cozy feeling goes with knowing there are crack addicts with nukes.
    21 Aug 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    Hopefully that is limited to just north Korea but somehow I am begining to wonder with everything falling apart in every country. Might be a lot of addicts with fingers on the buttons.

     

    Think about it.....a shortage of meth could start the next world war. Best get the revolutionaries lined up real soon.
    21 Aug 2013, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Yes. Who knew that the War on Drugs would literally go nuclear one day?

     

    (Actually, I know a SF write who DID think that, but 25 years ago we all thought he was nuts).
    21 Aug 2013, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    Guess he was not nuts....just ahead of his time. How often does that happen.
    22 Aug 2013, 06:09 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    FPA: Here at the resort, at Aqueous, I had a deconstructed Ratatouille goat cheese appetizer tonight. Yum!

     

    Woooweee, have lots of catching up to do when I get home.
    22 Aug 2013, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Rats!!! How was the steak?
    22 Aug 2013, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    Deconstructed? They unmade the cheese. So.....you had a glass of aged goat milk and that's a.... yum? LOL

     

    Agree with Rattie, how was the steak? You can keep the goat milk.
    22 Aug 2013, 06:13 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Guns: Thinking you and Daniel would love to do some shoot'n here! Was great fun!

     

    http://bit.ly/17P8I6e

     

    FPA: How in the heck did you know that out of the 13 restaurants here at this ever more and more amazing resort, that last night my fam was at the resort chop house? Yes, the steak was excellent!

     

    On the guests feed the animals tour today, marshmallows were fed to bears, a fearsome and loud and fence banging Siberian tiger was fed, as was a wimpy-assed, cuddly retired Las Vegas white tiger; saw a sloth, goats, hyenas, and a camel that hates living next door to the zebras. But curiously, is quite okay living with mules.

     

    There's lions, and buffalo, including both an albino one (Snowball), and another of enigmatic spiritual qualities, such that is it unique -- apparently none ever existed before 1990, and only ten exist now -- and has the local ancestors of Indians in a stew. This buffalo was born in the 90s' white, then the hair turned red, then brown, and is now black. It is regarded as a sacred buffalo such that during its lifetime, its hair will, or has, held all of the human skin colors of our world.

     

    Rumors are that some pissed off ancestor of the local Indian clan burned down the ski lodge here last year, because this buffalo should be on some Indian reservation, than here. Are you kidding me? This buffalo gets royal treatment, and some idiot wants it back out on some Wyoming Indian reservation, where it would be hunted down, skinned and eaten.

     

    Some of you older Quick Chatters may remember my complaints, amusement and jealousy of how my eldest sister historically works the slot machines; Vegas, Atlantic City, some of the Mid-western casinos. Every once in a while, I answer my cell phone, only to here all the ding-a-ling, ching, ching, chings. A month ago, this resort opened up Lady Luck Casino.

     

    We go down there together, split a club sandwich while playing some video poker. I put in a C-note, and was slowly getting wittled down. She loses $20, puts in another $5, and hangs in there for a half hour or so.

     

    "Well," she said, "I'm not getting anywhere." She moves on to a slot machine, and within 5 freaking minutes, comes back over, impish look on her face, and shows a $360 winning ticket.

     

    I leave, down a hundred. She later comes back to our Garshack Tree house home, and reports being up nearly $600.

     

    I...just...don't get it. Sent off a text to her newly married son. He texts back, "Unbelievable!"

     

    All-in-all, these last ten days went way too fast. I love long-term memories, and this trip could not have packed in more.

     

    Back to Philly tomorrow, to deal with some nasty 1.5 inch rusty-thorax-colored Asian wasps, who seem to like digging voraciously under my front steps. And also a hive of, yes again, Asian yellow jackets, that have moved deep into an eve, right outside my front door. Sprayed them four times before I left, to no avail. A real active and menacing hive.

     

    I didn't even bother to set the burglar alarm.

     

    Oooooh yes, almost forgot about the bats that had moved into another eve above my patio, maybe 8 days before I left, which was quite the argument with the homeowners association about who was responsible to pay for their removal. I won that one.

     

    What's freak'n next? Godzilla?
    23 Aug 2013, 03:01 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    I would have left the bats there. They eat ALOT of mosquitoes.

     

    Sporting clays shooting is one of my favorites.
    23 Aug 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (3147) | Send Message
     
    Pulling some stuff out of long term memory.
    I had a friend who was trying to be adopted into an indian tribe.
    (Was adopted by a family but died without being admitted to the tribe. Her ashes were scattered on sacred land in the reservation.)

     

    IIRC
    The indian's had a prediction of three White Buffalo all being alive at the same time.
    Was a portent of a major shift in the world.
    Likely white man would never see them if they were given to a tribe and put on a res. Not likely they would ever harm them.
    23 Aug 2013, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Ted Turner's herd is a large percentage of the total American Bison. If anyone would know about a white buff, it would be the guys running his ranch.
    23 Aug 2013, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (3147) | Send Message
     
    TB
    it's spiritual. It's not an argument a white person could win or even get into the room to discus it.
    Anyone not Indian would get similar treatment. (and have)
    23 Aug 2013, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I grok. I'm also 3/8 Cherokee.

     

    I was referring to the likelihood that, should the prophecy be fulfilled, it would likely see some of the births occur in his herd.

     

    For that matter, unless things have changed a lot since I was there last, Ted has a number of hands with NA blood working there.
    23 Aug 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    Some silver all in costs to produce an ounce of silver.

     

    Silver Standard reported the highest second-quarter silver equivalent, all-in cash cost at $31.02/oz, followed by Pan American Silver at $25.72/oz, Coeur at $24.59/oz, Endeavour at $22.92/oz, Fortuna at $22.33/oz, First Majestic Silver at $20.74/oz, and Silvercrest Mines at $13.37/oz.

     

    From a link at mineweb

     

    http://bit.ly/1auD03e
    22 Aug 2013, 07:33 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    If your keeping up with the Michael Hastings story this is a shocker.

     

    http://bit.ly/19LKmzV
    22 Aug 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Sad and disturbing.

     

    I am not convinced about the conspiracy theories, and this story paints a plausible picture of manic-depressive illness and substance abuse, which could certainly account for his paranoid belief that the FBI was after him.

     

    On the other hand, just because you are paranoid does not mean that they aren't out to get you!

     

    I guess we shall never really know.
    22 Aug 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Final report on my high yield petroleum sector play:

     

    VLCCF up 36.5% (still holding this one, as it just won't go down)

     

    Sold off:

     

    NTI at 5% gain

     

    PDH at 3.6% gain

     

    QRE at 7.8% gain

     

    CHKR at 6.2% gain

     

    Overall positive results, but not what I had hoped to see.

     

    Swapped these investments into SLW, SAND and so on, which have done better of course.

     

    Observation: Having entered this effort with the idea of realizing a 20% profit, other than VLCCF, I should have sold each stock WHEN it delivered a 20% profit.
    22 Aug 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    >Trip-

     

    "I should have sold each stock WHEN it delivered a 20% profit."

     

    Would stop-loss orders have worked after the 20% was achieved or would they be impractical? I've had some success with stop loss orders- mainly when in hi-risk situations.

     

    You do have to accept the fact that volatility could and would result in an unforeseen sale occasionally but if you already have the 20% it makes little difference.
    23 Aug 2013, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    LOL, my problem was that I just could not make up my mind. Each one was under my sell button with 20% gains at one point or another, and I elected to just wait and see. Part of this was that I had a time horizon for the play and wanted to see how the time element (essentially, 4-6 months) would work.

     

    Turns out I had picked a good bottom to buy, followed by about the size pop I had anticipated, but I lingered because my read longer term was off.

     

    Logically, now that I am out of those stocks, they will bounce up to hit the 30% point I was hoping for (greed, greed, and again, greed), my mid-term time estimate arriving just a bit late.

     

    Still, I am watching for another such trading opportunity, and holding the winner UNLESS it drifts back to a 20% level, when it WILL be sold.
    23 Aug 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    :-) I added PDH today, trip, on thesis that 12+% divi looked good and think demand for propylene will remain stable or grow with the economy. Might be excessively optimistic re-propane prices but don't look for big increases in next few months.

     

    Your outlook appears to differ.
    23 Aug 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I liked (and like) PDH, I just didn't make much money on them in the trade. As I indicated, I would not be a bit surprised to see them (and the others) suddenly catch fire now that I sold off and booked small profits.

     

    I am now watching for the next buying opp.

     

    I no longer buy stocks with the idea of holding them long term (ie, more than 2 years max). I consider these good trade candidates.
    23 Aug 2013, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    Holding (PDH) w/a 11% loss- Still think it will be a winner. Like the yield.
    24 Aug 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    also down on PDH at present but like the value proposition going forward.
    24 Aug 2013, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19390) | Send Message
     
    NASDAQ glitch has caused them to stop all "tape c" trading, requesting the quotes be routed to other exchanges. This affects options too.

     

    Some trading may be done on other exchanges, but at least CPST and options have no activity anywhere right now.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Aug 2013, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Apparently the NYSE just broke as well.
    22 Aug 2013, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19390) | Send Message
     
    I just heard that NYSE ARCA had a problem independent of Nasdaq on the re-start.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Aug 2013, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    OK, update on the one U play I posted a few days back, its at $.2187 now, up from $.1842 when I picked it up. I am holding it longer term, but it is already up almost 20%. I will lighten up at the halfway mark (around .28).
    22 Aug 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    This is about EFRFF.
    22 Aug 2013, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    Does this issue with the exchanges have anything to do with the problem the other day, that impacted GS? I read they lost $100 Mil.
    http://read.bi/1awmik7
    TSLA is up over 6% today--over $9.00 and close to its all time high. I sold the 130 put for $1.46 and it fell to .92 by the end of the day. That's sweet, like a cherry on a sundae. I had to go out to the 9/13 expiration date to find a rich premium.
    22 Aug 2013, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    >OG-

     

    Way to go-

     

    I don't think I have the chutzpah to short TSLA.

     

    I sold LINE Puts $25s 10/2013 and bot Calls $25s same expiry and Sold SLW $27 Puts 8/23 all in the green- for the moment.
    22 Aug 2013, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    So, you like selling puts...wink wink.
    22 Aug 2013, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    "So, you like selling puts..."

     

    Sometimes- Got hit with an SLW quick slump a couple weeks ago that caused me some pain Sold @ .61 and had to buy in @ 1.15.

     

    Long some (T) puts for 9/21 at $33 that are looking OK. (T) should be selling @ $30.
    22 Aug 2013, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    WT[ Re: SLW-How would you have done if you took the stock? What would have happened if you took the stock and then immediately sold a close to the money call on it, with a short expiration? That's something to look at for the future as a possible exit plan.
    22 Aug 2013, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    >OG-

     

    I had considered that but I had plans to lose that money somewhere else. Selling Puts (and taking stock) does often tie up a bit of capital.

     

    Problem with selling Calls at least covered Calls has you holding stock you might want to be out of- More trans costs as well. I have done exactly that a number of times mostly with success.

     

    Had a Put Sell on (LINE) couple weeks ago where LINE went down two pts below my meager sell proceeds. Got a bounce back and got out from under for a modest loss.
    22 Aug 2013, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    that's the tough part!
    23 Aug 2013, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    One of the most important articles Dr. Duru has published, but it is important because it so well captures the chaos occurring in the markets rather than explaining them.

     

    To me I see clear evidence that the breakdown in the official statistics which govern such things as national budgets, currency exchange, international trade and high level policy making are approaching a crisis...

     

    But NOT one where those numbers and facts tell a story of doom or joy, but one where they just squabble and fight with one another like so many ill-mannered 2 year olds.

     

    What is truly frightening is the fact that the world leaders look at these important numbers - individually and in clumps and collectively - and BELIEVE they have data to guide them.

     

    The reverse is true.

     

    Our technological culture is blinding itself, and I believe it is a nasty crime being perpetrated by idiot children handed the keys to our destruction by idiot voters - or in the case of totalitarian regimes, idiot ideologues whose loose-bowel scribblings they follow from fear if not true belief.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    22 Aug 2013, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Doing some late day analysis...

     

    Spending time with all the old miners I abandoned 2 years back...

     

    I believe someone (OG?) mentioned Great Panther lately - I find it very alluring at around $1 flat. I see a 30% upside possible...

     

    Hmmm....
    22 Aug 2013, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Silver shorts don't like GPL, after all, what's to like about a silver miner with several producing mines, over $20million in cash, no debt, and some good future prospects? LOL.

     

    Their production costs are on the high side, and they are running a deficit at current silver prices though...

     

    Still, I think they are oversold right now. Those looking for the stock to hit $5 soon are unlikely to see that happen, but my personal goal of $1.3x...

     

    Could be.
    23 Aug 2013, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19390) | Send Message
     
    TB: I've not read it yet - just came across it while doing e-mail from a couple days back.

     

    "Great Panther Silver Is Overvalued" by Ben Kramer-Miller

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    23 Aug 2013, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Yes, he's one of the critics I was making fun of (he gets schooled pretty effectively in the comment section, including some pretty clear corrections to factual errors in his article).

     

    From what I can tell, he wants to shift investors to one of his own picks somewhere, but I find his arguments unconvincing (where they weren't pretty transparently false or incompetent).

     

    I equally disagree with those who think GPL will shoot back up to $5 a share sometime soon, that's a pipedream imo...

     

    But I still think they have about 30% headroom, with a fairly short leadtime.

     

    Its always been a hairy, volatile stock. I am looking at it as a trade, with a plan to accumulate a smallish core of free shares from trading profits.

     

    It COULD really blossom if silver prices improve, and that is another facet of my narrative, but that applies to LOTS of stocks.
    23 Aug 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    Did you guys hear about UPS today? We'll be seeing more of this as large companies try to rein in health insurance costs.
    http://bloom.bg/17Pe3dP
    23 Aug 2013, 03:45 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    Yes. Working spouses of covered EEs has always been a point of discussion. When I ran the plan for the health care professionals we had a provision in many contracts that allowed the EEs to opt out of our plan and receive a stipend from their employer equivalently at a level much lower than what the employer paid to us for coverage to avoid anti-selection against us.

     

    Since my group was predominantly female and their spouses often were employed by a government sponsored health plan they received close to equal coverage from their spouse's plan.

     

    We will see further iterations of decreases in non-employee coverage as the picture develops. Retiree coverage is sometimes provided by employers to encourage superannuated EEs to consider early retirement. This may now be conditional as a result of Obamacare.
    23 Aug 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Sold PGLC at break even (based upon earlier report of devastating new EPA effort to block mineral exploration and development).
    23 Aug 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Just sold half my SLW calls for $1.84, cost $.47. Almost a short term quad...
    23 Aug 2013, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Sold remainder of my MCP calls at a loss... Overall for both MCP groups a wash, earlier profits wiped out by later losses.
    23 Aug 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2698) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    The latest from Pater Tenebrarum on bubbles and "bubble fighters". Funny and informative, a must read IMHO.
    23 Aug 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2698) | Send Message
     
    Sorry 'bout that. Pater's article again.

     

    http://bit.ly/1daBswg
    23 Aug 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2698) | Send Message
     
    OK, apparently if you include an SA article address it doesn't show completely in the text but it IS seen by the computer as a valid address. Hummm
    23 Aug 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19390) | Send Message
     
    SHB: I read from the original link OK. Good entertainment.

     

    Picked up an investing idea too - a bubble blowing machine because as we all know the cure for a deflating bubble is another bubble.

     

    A long-term industry assured to always be needed - a commodity, if you will.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Aug 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2698) | Send Message
     
    Re: bubble blowing machine.

     

    Would it blow bubbles with hot air if you fed it with political contributions? That would be illustrative of............ something :-(
    23 Aug 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19390) | Send Message
     
    SHB: We could, but the AGW crowd would be on us for contributing to the problem. Probably best to use Nitrogen?

     

    HardToLove
    23 Aug 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    Maybe the best would be a bubble bath- That way the public could have their bubbles, enjoy them for a little bit and then it could be used as hogwash by the pols- Once again on the public. Kind of a bubbly snake oil. Used to once know a girl named Bubbles..........
    24 Aug 2013, 12:48 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    WT, do you remember that Ho that sang about them? Ha, ha, ho.
    http://bit.ly/1f8NB1j
    24 Aug 2013, 02:40 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    OG, I remember as a child going past his (bar, cabana or whatever) on waikiki beach. Being in 5th and 6th grade at the time it was "boring" but my folks liked it.
    Jimmy Buffet has take his space now.
    http://bit.ly/177qXr8
    26 Aug 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    Yep- But we're dealing with BIG bubbles here!
    24 Aug 2013, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Outflows from funds just spiked...

     

    Initial assumption would be that the sky is falling, but a look at recent history shows that the last several such occasions marked a bottom followed by a sharp move in the other direction.
    24 Aug 2013, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    If you can call a 2.5 percent downward trend a bottom. But then again a bubbles got to do what a bubbles supposed to do.
    24 Aug 2013, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    New article by Insider Monkey on Cooperman's Omega Fund's largest holdings incl (LINE), (KMI), (APL) & (RIG) as highest yielders.
    25 Aug 2013, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    China's Gold-rush In Perspective

     

    http://bit.ly/159knKm

     

    >>
    What China has been arguing since PBOC Governor Zhou Xioachuan's 2009 essay “Reform the international monetary system” is that SDRs are the way to undergird a new global reserve system, and that China should be a part of it. The essay made waves in the central banking community at the time, calling the SDR “the light in the tunnel for the reform of the international monetary system.”

     

    This puts China's recent gold-lust into perspective. They are not trying to create a new gold standard, or tie the yuan to gold in some convertibility scheme. They are trying to gussy up their financial bona fides to get the yuan added to the SDR basket during its next reevaluation in 2015. Increasing their gold holdings to as much as (or more than) the US' (claimed) 8,000 tonnes would certainly be an impressive feat, and one that could give them legitimacy in the eyes of the international central bankster community.

     

    Sadly, unlike the people who saw the one sentence summary of Yudong's essay and surmised that China may be about to pull the plug out from the bankster's QE bathtub, it seems that they're playing ball after all and just angling for a spot on the roster.
    <<
    25 Aug 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Interesting perspective, a different take, SM.

     

    I think there is a third option, however, as to China's motive to accumulate gold...

     

    And it has to do with geopolitical goals which, though they might (probably "do") include SDR influence, are actually looking much further down the road at a higher objective. China has their sights set on world hegemony, and nothing less. Lesser achievements (which I do believe include accumulating and manipulating precious metals and strategic minerals) are just tools to that end. This means that their moves will only cooperate with economic or market driven forces as a random coincidence when those circumstances happen to help to promote the geopolitical goal.
    25 Aug 2013, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    I wish I could disagree, TB. The 21st century will belong to the Asian Tigers.
    25 Aug 2013, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19390) | Send Message
     
    "U.S. durable-goods orders drop 7.3% in July"

     

    http://bit.ly/17gAf0h

     

    8:30a U.S. core capital goods orders down 3.3% in July
    8:30a U.S. orders minus defense decline 6.7%
    8:30a U.S. orders minus transportation fall smaller 0.6%
    8:30a Auto orders edge up 0.5% in July
    8:30a Commercial aircraft orders sink 52.3%

     

    HardToLove
    26 Aug 2013, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    These numbers seem logical, given those things we have all been monitoring recently. Aircraft sales, in particular, are geopolitical door prizes used by many governments to reward and punish behavior.

     

    I am wondering how the automotive, truck and train sectors did. I have been expecting a slowdown in automotive to match the sagging "recovery", while trucks would be more likely to see seasonal action in preparation for the insane shipping environment leading up to Christmas. Trains especially fascinate me, for I think there might be the best chance at good numbers and clear signals (not so heavily geopoliticized, only a handful of large players constituting the huge mass of the market, and few suppliers to track).
    26 Aug 2013, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    Trains are an elusive target for evaluation in certain markets.

     

    In my area sit some of the largest train marshaling yards in the US. Many of the railroad cars are indeed full- hundreds and hundreds of cars full of auto inventory that has nowhere else to go, the car sales lots being full.

     

    The autos sit in the cars on the sideline tracks in trains w/out engines in significant numbers. So, this may bode well for the train industry- Not so good for the auto folks.
    26 Aug 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2698) | Send Message
     
    RE: parked rail cars.

     

    Who owns those parked rail cars? The auto companies or a 3rd party? I don't know the RR business, but I can't imagine the railroad companies holding rail cars on the books as cap goods!
    26 Aug 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (3147) | Send Message
     
    8:30a Commercial aircraft orders sink 52.3%
    Boeing is up .8% at present.
    up 6% in 3 months
    up 41% YTD
    up 50% in a year
    26 Aug 2013, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19390) | Send Message
     
    Froggey: With the lead time on aircraft orders I would be surprised if pps as immediately affected.

     

    Continued reports like that might get it eventually and any news of a surge in cancellations would hit it too.

     

    The significance of that may relate more to the consolidation in the airlines here and continued weakness in the sector over in Europe, where there's presumably a bias towards Airbus?

     

    HardToLove
    26 Aug 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    "Who owns those parked rail cars?"

     

    I would guess the manufacturers still have ownership.

     

    The RRs probably collect storage/lease fees as portable warehouses.
    26 Aug 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    Froggy are those current orders or the orders they are taking right now that wont be filled for 7.3 years ( or something like that) any way because they have about a 7.3 year back log. 601 yearly delivery divided by a 4400 back log.

     

    Article is from Apr 2013. Sorry so old but its where I found the most recent numbers.

     

    http://bit.ly/13U7kSQ
    26 Aug 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (3147) | Send Message
     
    DG
    I took it from HTL's list. (July)
    But that particular number isn't at his link.
    http://on.mktw.net/17g...

     

    Its here.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/GYbi0M
    26 Aug 2013, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    It really does not say. I would assume that it is for present orders that will be filled in 7.3 years so the stock price is not effected yet. However if ones is to ASSUME we must be careful because it can make an A$$ out of U and Me. ASS-U-ME.
    26 Aug 2013, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    On pipeline capacity & related "stuff"

     

    http://yhoo.it/17gCMI6
    "The American Association of Railroads says it is prepared for growing crude shipments because it has long carried hazardous cargoes. In 2008, major U.S. railroads carried 9,500 carloads of crude, the association says, and are on pace this year to carry 389,000.

     

    Most industry analysts believe that while crude on trains will last, truck and barge traffic will decline once new pipelines come into service."
    26 Aug 2013, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    SAND 12/21 Calls are looking enticing this morning, I have mine for sale at the Ask, .85 (original cost .25).

     

    Now fishing for longer dates for SLW, looking for a Christmas (12/21) play cheap around $30 or $31...

     

    Still sitting at $1 flat with a small starter order for GPL.

     

    AG is perking up this morning, my Calls are up, though I am waiting for $.90 or so to sell (bought Calls at $.45, late to the party).
    26 Aug 2013, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    TB- SLW goes ex divi 8/28. The price should drop in a couple of days.
    26 Aug 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I am hoping for that this time.

     

    Out of the .25 SAND Calls for >.85, happy with that result...
    26 Aug 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    This rube on option plays is trying to understand what appears an interesting development on SAND Mar '14 @ $7.50 calls. With SAND currently selling ~$7.20 current option ask @ $1.20 with bid of $1.05. Last transaction at $1.14.

     

    Thoughts anyone?
    26 Aug 2013, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    D-inv when they sit there with a wide differential between the bid and ask it's not liquid.
    26 Aug 2013, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    :-) Hear ya, OG. The ask had been $1.15 for some time and then moved to $1.20 following the $1.14 transaction. (Ask didn't stay at $1.20 very long.)

     

    Mar '14 $7.50 options priced in the $1.10 - $1.15 range when the underlying security is selling for $7.20 raised a different question in my mind. Looks like a fair probability of selling $7.50 SAND shares today (for execution in a day or so) by selling covered $7.50 calls @ $1.10 - $1.15 and realizing ~$8.60. What am I missing here?
    26 Aug 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    You are missing your cost for initiating your stock position.
    26 Aug 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    D-inv-
    Re: Buying (SAND) and writing covered $7.50 Calls for March '14.

     

    Ok- Let's say 1000 shares bought at $7.20 (actually $7.13 at the close.) Cost $7200.

     

    Sell $7.5 Calls and get $1.15 X 10 contracts Rec'd $1150.

     

    Now assume nothing happens for six months, the stock stays at $7.20 and the calls stay at 1.15. In this unlikely scenario the Calls would expire worthless and you get to keep your $1150, which applied to your stock cost of $7200 reduces your cost of ownership to $6050 or $6.05 a share, or a six month return of 19% before of course cost to buy stock and sell calls- Not a whole lot of money especially with a discount broker.

     

    In reality the option would gradually decline in value (time decay) to the point where it will make more sense to "buy it in" to eliminate the possibility of the stock being called away.

     

    Should the stock say- double in price to $14.40 over that time you would see only the $.30 from $7.20 to $7.50 plus your income from the option sale as the stock would be called unless you bought in the call before it got that far. Actually the stock could be called away any time after it reaches $7.50.

     

    Should the stock's value deteriorate for some reason you may be precluded from selling it while the option calls are still outstanding against the stock. If you need to sell you may be forced to buy in the calls before you can sell- In a thin market maybe for just about what you received. That can happen- adding to your loss.

     

    These are the situations that anti-acid lozenges are made for.

     

    WT
    26 Aug 2013, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, WT, for elaborating.

     

    I put my original question to the board because of what I understood Scottrade policy was regarding exercise of covered calls. As I read Scottrade text on the matter shares behind covered calls would be sold anytime the share price rose to a covered call strike price. This appeared to set up a "too good to be true" situation on SAND if one thinks that share price will rise to $7.50 or more in the next few days. One could sell a March '14 covered call with strike of $7.50 and collect a premium now of ~$1.10 plus $7.50 later on exercise of call.

     

    Now, if I were to pay someone $1.10 for a March '14 $7.50 call option and the underlying share price went to $7.75 within a week, I would not be inclined to exercise the option right away. The share price could continue to rise and I could get a much better return on investment by holding the call option with its $1.10 cost basis than to add another $7.50 to that cost basis.

     

    :-) I've only begun to really look into option trading and will take it one step at a time. To date, I have executed one option transaction and that was sale of a covered call expiring in less than a month at a strike price I would be willing to sell the underlying stock for at this point in time. But, I think the probability of the stock reaching the strike price in September is low (but relatively high by Oct.). If the stock (OLED) is called away, I have effectively increased the sale price (reduced my cost basis).
    26 Aug 2013, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19390) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: "covered calls would be sold anytime the share price rose to a covered call strike price".

     

    I think this is an industry standard - ETrade does the same. But it's done only for in the money (ITM) at expiration (always a Saturday). So you have the opportunity to close the positions on the Friday or before. I would double check that your broker does it this way as well.

     

    Also, if you are *long* options, they will do the same. But in this case you should be allowed to notify them if you don't want to exercise. Double-check this also.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2013, 06:55 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    >Dinv-

     

    You're welcome.

     

    99% of the time an option will trade at a premium to the stock price if- it's 'in the money.' There are times however when there is a thin market and the bid price is LESS than what the option is worth. Many option writers will capitalize on this phenomenon looking to buy in the option at less cost than when it was written even though the option is in the money, hoping a seller will do a 'market sale' the market being way below intrinsic value.

     

    ALWAYS do limit trades to avoid getting burned. If the ASK price looks good then specify that price as a limit. Between the moment between when you pull the trigger and the action becomes acknowledged the price of the option could change five times.

     

    I had a situation recently when the VALUE of my options was far above the option bid price and well before the expiration date.The stock had jumped 25% in one day for what I believed to be a short duration before it settled back. In order to preserve my profit I told my broker to do an immediate exercise and sale. It was a large block of options and I had insufficient capital to just exercise and hold.

     

    Good luck and ..be careful out there!

     

    WT
    27 Aug 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    I would like to clarify: The options are American style; that means they can be exercised by the buyer anytime prior to expiration, not necessarily at expiration.
    27 Aug 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    >OG-

     

    Re: American style? Could you elaborate please? What other forms are there?
    27 Aug 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    Most commonly refered to are european style- options settled at expiration
    american style- at or before expiration
    But, there are others:
    http://bit.ly/w553R0
    27 Aug 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, HTL. When I checked with Scottrade yesterday, at times other than expiration they only sell underlying "in the money" shares when the holder of the option chooses to exercise the call.
    27 Aug 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19390) | Send Message
     
    WWT: European style can only be exercised at expiration.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    >OG-
    Thanks! Wow! I wouldn't even want to consider thinking about some of those bizarre permutations.

     

    Would I be correct to assume that it is sometimes beneficial to trade on non-American option markets? ie. Canada?
    27 Aug 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, HTL
    27 Aug 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    I have no idea, WT. I wanted to buy some Canadian warrants, and I couldn't because the trades were prohibited to US citizens. I don't know why.
    If it doesn't have an ADR or doesn't trade on one of our markets, I don't do it. The commissions would eat me up alive, my transactions are way too small to participate and I don't know anything about the rules and tax consequences.
    27 Aug 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    WT: The only way to trade options on many foreign stocks is on their home exchanges. Even those with ADRs or OTCs here often have little or no option capability.

     

    Many foreign exchanges restrict the investment activity of non-citizens, although until recently the Canadian exchanges were relatively accessible for Americans. As OG mentions, however, that is no longer the case.

     

    I believe this contravenes the NAFTA treaty, but hey, LOL, that rag was never the "economic super highway" it was touted to be...

     

    More like a one-way road.
    27 Aug 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    Look at Great Panther silver. Here we have a Canadian junior that trades in the US directly, with options on the US market in name only; that is, the options are basically not trade-able. (Perhaps this also has something to do with how low Great Panther fell since the silver highs near $40 several years ago.)
    27 Aug 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    If I have cash in my Canadian MM fund I can trade Canadian securities on the TSX. Sure beats the surcharge for my broker to trade there, I believe its $75 either way. I haven't traded on the TSX in about a year but for stocks that are thinly traded as ADRs here there may be more fluidity on the TSX. I have not looked into options on a Canadian exchange tho.

     

    I had money in Aussie dollars for a while when we were pursuing the RE group. Actually paid off since in order to trade in Aussie I bought $AU through Forex and set up a mm account to draw from- The $AU went up quite a bit so I profited. Don't have it any more.
    27 Aug 2013, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    I see these two articles and think is the China collapse this close. Copper plunged today too!!

     

    China admits PMI date suspect.

     

    http://bit.ly/1djfwAc

     

    Will the Fed bail out china.

     

    http://bit.ly/1djfwAd
    26 Aug 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    China will bail out China, probably by cutting the yuan exchange rate (for starters). Export quotas from various Chinese Cartels are moving into place, and the Hitachi IP lawsuits just starting to gestate are simply the first in a LOOOOONG list of similar squabbles.

     

    As a first cut China could just match the currency devaluation recently done by the Japanese.

     

    As for suspect government data...

     

    LOL.
    26 Aug 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (3147) | Send Message
     
    "As for suspect government data...

     

    LOL."

     

    Oh TB. Say it isn't so!
    26 Aug 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    TSLA went above $169 a share. It's now a 20 bil company. Hilarious. Elon Musk made some statements about the street being very gracious with the stock price..
    That's a polite way of saying "Thanks for this rocket ride, putting billions in my pockets while I work on the next rocket ride".
    26 Aug 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2698) | Send Message
     
    OG> If the PUTS weren't so outrageously priced I would be buying!

     

    But it appears that it will take some type of market shock to pop the Tes La bubble. Maybe another stock offering would do it?
    26 Aug 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >siliconhillbilly ... Wait for two things to happen. First, run out of carbon credits to sell. Second, run out of true-believers to sell cars to & the second wave of customers need finding, which could be into next year. Not reporting the reservation bookings anymore is a tell. Another, thing is the accounting entries for the lease program but I understand that can be jacked around with for quite some time.
    26 Aug 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    And I'd sell them to you except I can't sell anymore now because every time I sell one the brokerage freezes 17K on each one until settlement.
    26 Aug 2013, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    A J.S. Kim article from over at ZH.

     

    "Furthermore, this figure of true national debt does not even feel obscene in relative terms once you consider that the Alan Greenspan/Robert Rubin/Bill Clinton administration let the global derivative market run unregulated in the name of multi-billion dollar short-term profits to bankers and irresponsibly explode into the unresolvable $1,200,000,000,000,000 to $1,500,000,000,000,000 market that exists today. Let it be known for the record that CFTC Chairman Brooksley Born urgently lobbied for strict regulations of the global banking derivatives markets and warned Summers and Greenspan that letting bankers exploit derivatives for profit at the expense of sound banking principles would create the very crisis we are suffering today.

     

    What was Born’s reward for such a prescient and wise prediction? A cussing out and screaming fest courtesy of Larry Summers (from Born's own testimoney) and a forced resignation by Summers and Greenspan. Yes, the same Larry Summers that President Obama has adamantly defended and is Obama’s first choice to supplant Ben Bernanke as the next chairman of the Rothschilds Private Bank (aka the Federal Reserve)."

     

    http://bit.ly/17imGxC
    26 Aug 2013, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2698) | Send Message
     
    guns> That just means Summers is a "good soldier". He does what his commander says. That obviously includes shooting "civilians", I.E., small investors, IRA holders....
    27 Aug 2013, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    You mean he butchers them. Damn Nazi is what he is leading this nation down the financial shit hole and now BO wants to put him in charge of the treasury, I am thinking BO truly is trying to destroy our nation.
    27 Aug 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Here is a terrific piece on Summers (apologize if it is a repost, I am still in vacation mode this AM):

     

    Should Larry Summers replace Ben Bernanke?

     

    http://bit.ly/1dmNNO5
    28 Aug 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    "Should Larry Summers replace Ben Bernanke?"

     

    Problem is BO has shown himself more than inept enough to make that disaster scenario reality.
    28 Aug 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    We hardcore SF fans have our own subculture, and one of the primary sources for our lore comes from the old masters of horror. H.P. Lovecraft is a favorite, as is his iconic (and demonic) evil god character, Cthulhu.

     

    My impulse when I see insanity such as the idea of running Larry Summers in to be the Fed Chairman is to just throw up my hands, run out in my back yard to start digging an apocalypse shelter, while muttering: "Why mess around, BO? Just put Cthulhu in the job!"
    28 Aug 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    Just checked the quake map and there were only two quakes in the western pacific. I guess the absence was correct. That concerns me since the ring of fire always has quakes all over the place.

     

    The middle east is getting hammered lately. Prepping for Obamas wrath I guess.
    27 Aug 2013, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19390) | Send Message
     
    (LINE): Put contracts of 15,500 traded yesterday, representing 1.55MM shares. No real information there as they could've been open and closed the same day. Put/call contract OI remained relatively neutral at 1.05 Friday (won't know current for sure until later) while the Put/Call dollar value OI spiked from Friday's 0.58 to 26.41.

     

    That may carry some information, but I'm new at using these metrics and don't yet have a way to assess probable effects.

     

    If there was an*easy* way to find which strike prices and dates were involved ... Someday I'll get that.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2013, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    >HTL-

     

    "Put contracts of 15,500 traded yesterday, representing 1.55MM shares."
    Do you have what is typical for a day either/or Put/Call?
    I have not followed the metrics for volume but that sure sounds like a lot!
    27 Aug 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19390) | Send Message
     
    WWT: I've not been tracking that long, but give me a minute to open the spreadsheet and I'l post back with "EDIT" here.

     

    EDIT: excluding yesterday, calls 6128, puts 7377. Of course, there's some other larger numbers here and there - period includes January to yesterday. I've not checked, put the bear raid probably had some large numbers.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2013, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    >HTL-

     

    Thanks-
    Stock is generally up but gyrating. News coming? Some entity putting up that many PUTS must be anticipating a big move up.
    27 Aug 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19390) | Send Message
     
    WWT: If you would like, I can pull the averages excluding *exceptional* days.

     

    BTW: the put/call ratio (which is contract OI) held steady at 1.05, so those puts were most likely intra-day trades opened and closed the same day.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2013, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    >HTL-

     

    Thanks for the offer but I would not know how to draw a thesis from the data.

     

    WT
    27 Aug 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    Gold is up $24 and crude high, too. Syria is coming to the fore.
    27 Aug 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Wow! Oil up almost $3 in premarket! Latest rumor is we go to war this Thursday.
    27 Aug 2013, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    "...rumor is we go to war this Thursday. "

     

    Yup-

     

    We can always count on the pols to give us a nice juicy war when the economy is in the dumps.
    27 Aug 2013, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Sold AG Calls at a double, .90.

     

    Currently shopping for SAND, SLW and AG again...

     

    OK, just bought SLW Calls 10/19 for $1.09...
    27 Aug 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Can one double down on tripleblack?
    27 Aug 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    AG 10/19 $20 Calls, in at $.30...
    27 Aug 2013, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19390) | Send Message
     
    Maya: I think his shell has triple-strength trusses, so it should be safe.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Aug 2013, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    I'm holding :

     

    (AG) 15s October now up $.20 today to $1.90 and
    (SAND) 7.5 December now up $.15 to $.95 and
    (SLW) PUT short for 28s this Friday bot Monday up 50%.

     

    My (AUY) 13s CALLs for January '15 now up $.14 today (6%) to $2.47 +48%

     

    I will most likely take some off the table prior to week end, most likely trim the (AG) where I have a large (for me) allocation of 9% of holdings with a 35% profit over a few weeks.
    27 Aug 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    Dazzling results!
    27 Aug 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    I'm only showing the good stuff right now! There is plenty of ugly also- Wait 'til I do my periodic update!

     

    (;-)}
    27 Aug 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    GPL up over 10%, doing better than the other penny silvers.
    27 Aug 2013, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I'm happy in at $1 as previously mentioned... Still see $1.30+ in the short term future. I may lighten up at that point, depending on any news at that time.

     

    OK, events have moved much faster than I anticipated, I am out with a 30% gain.
    27 Aug 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    GPL already at $1.32, up over 10% today.
    27 Aug 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    If we see a bounce down from resistance, this could be a buy again at about $1.10.
    27 Aug 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    Nicely done, Trip!
    28 Aug 2013, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Lucky I had a program sale in place. That post was as close to real time action as I report here. I don't try to do that, its just too much work and too crazy.
    28 Aug 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Just re-entered GPL at $1.05... I believe $1.3x is again in sight short term, maybe a tad more this time.
    29 Aug 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    Did you see Zero Hedge today? Japan's interest on debt--very alarming levels. It's unsustainable.
    27 Aug 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    The huge bulk of that debt (something like 95% is held by the Japanese themselves) is being paid out in yen to Japanese institutions and individuals. When they print tons of yen (like recently, and I predicted long ago that they would end up at over 150y/$), the payouts become more logical.

     

    Hard on the Japanese retirees, though, when their cost of living shoots up.

     

    This becomes really alarming whenever Japan has to start selling debt into the open market.
    27 Aug 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    OG, Do you know what their average interest rate is? I see it increased about 14%, but I don't see the pay rate.

     

    Do you think its a good time to short the Japan market (EWV)?
    27 Aug 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    EWV is coming off a bottom. It looks like a 1-2-3 bottom pattern is developing. The tea leaves look promising, Rattie.
    27 Aug 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    According to a short piece I read by Mish Shedlock the two dangers are: if the interest rates rise to 3% all of Japan's revenue go to servicing debt; and
    monetizing the interest payments would result in collapse of the Yen.
    28 Aug 2013, 05:10 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    "Collapse of the yen" is precisely what is already happening. It was done purposely to this point, but I believe they will lose control of the process eventually. The yen has been depreciated about 30% in value over the past months (which of course has the effect of easing the pressure of paying out debt service at the same time). at about 100y/$ is a sweet spot for Japan, but soon it will need to go to 110, 120, 150, etc.

     

    It's possible to chart both the debt service and the aging of the population demographic together, and from that infer what must happen with the yen to compensate, and when. The hope in Japan has been that they would see a resurgence of export growth in high end merchandise, but that is the scene of the current fight with China over IP and strategic mineral access. These topics are joined at the hip.

     

    I have for a long time viewed China as the eventual winner, and Japan as perhaps the most abject example of the Western power loser (closely followed by Europe, and then the US).

     

    The crisis in Japan could occur quickly, but I think they have bought themselves some few months of breathing room with the recent yen manipulation. The ball is now in China's court (pun intended, thinking of the IP lawsuits), and I expect China to respond with a devastating yuan maneuver. Japan's allies in Europe are hamstrung by their own desperate financial straits, so they can expect no help from there, and the US is so far behind this particular curve that it will be a non-entity until far too late.
    28 Aug 2013, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    FYI, Rattie, Bloomberg publishes the Japanese government bond rates. 30 year is 1.79%.
    Here's a link that has the shorter bonds, too:
    http://bloom.bg/g4pMmE
    27 Aug 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Thanks OG!!
    27 Aug 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2698) | Send Message
     
    I sold more ETN the day before Cramer recommended a buy on it last week. It is down 5% or so since then.

     

    It's true, he IS a negative indicator!
    27 Aug 2013, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Well folks, it's time top do some downside charting. I've been waiting months for a pullback or correction, and I think we're in the mist of one now.

     

    Since Nov. 5, 2012, SPY has completed 5 Elliott Waves of higher highs, and four higher lows. Looking more and more like we'll have a lower low this time around.

     

    On August 2, SPY topped out at $170.95. At today's close we're down $7.66 since Aug. 2, about 4.5%, at 163.29.

     

    The first level of support comes at 157.07, achieved on June 24. Momentum looks like will dash right on by downward.

     

    With a 10% pullback, we'd drop to SPY 153.85. On April 18, SPY closed at 154.14...pretty close, support-wise.

     

    So I'm targeting SPY 154 as a future potential buy point.

     

    I've also read several projections that we'll see a 15% correction. The next level of support down is 140.03, which occurred on the final trading day of 2012, Dec. 28. That would be about an 18%
    correction, and we'd be flat on the year. I can't see the S&P dropping that far. Because that would put us dangerously close to going back into a recession. I cannot see the FED allowing that to happen.

     

    One man's charting thoughts.

     

    What's yours?
    27 Aug 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    OK, I'll take a stab, Maya...

     

    As for the Elliott waves, I do not grok Elliott. I have tried, and it just does not compute. The closest I come is the old Disney kid movie with the invisible dragon named Elliott, and even being invisible he was more comprehensible to me than the Waves...

     

    Overall I think the current market is "nervous", chiefly about Syria (or perhaps more accurately, the threat by Iran to launch missiles at Israel if the US launches an attack upon Syria). This is a continuation of the RTN analysis - if one sees the Syrian attack as a near certainty, the RTN investment is pretty safe, and if one sees the Iranians lobbing missiles at Israel, RTN might, er, "rocket".

     

    Should BO elect NOT to launch us into Syria, its likely that the nervous market will quickly stabilize, or even see a mild relief rally.

     

    Should BO choose to play with Tomahawks, I could see a mild market correction, similar to the last one, of about 5% or so.

     

    IF the Iranians go nuts attacking Israel, the market will likely take it poorly, and a 10-15% correction would generally occur.

     

    OK, lets look at the general indicators OTHER than the geopolitical.

     

    Durable goods orders just came in below expectations, primarily because aircraft orders were slow, but is that important trend line indicating a major correction? No. All the current longer term trends (even for planes) are intact. We would have to see several more months of similar results to infer confirmation of a coming correction in that sector.

     

    Recent new home sales dropped (after experiencing some months of strong growth), but is that a good indicator? New home sales are only about 7% of the overall market nowadays, and the sales of existing homes were still strong. Some pundits started inventing new ideas back in 2008 when financial gravity was repealed by government fiat, one of which was that interest rates and housing have an inverse relationship. Wrong. The history (pre-government fumbling) is the exact opposite, with housing and interest rates moving together, right up UNTIL the yield curve flips over at some insane high interest rate. We are so far from such a situation that its as invisible as Elliott (the dragon, not the wave).

     

    When charting the markets, back when I was a big believer in statistical analysis, the VIX was always a way to predict the immediate weather conditions. Right now it is up slightly from where it was before the Syria announcement, but ONLY slightly. The spikes we have seen during major economic events were much higher, and the curves much more dramatic. We have gone from "coma-like" to "semicoma-like". Not a supportive stat for the scenario.

     

    Anyway, I tend to try to find three choices, and pick the middle one, and in this case the geopolitical choices are the clearest list.

     

    Therefore I choose "plan B". BO goes into Syria, but the Iranians don't wipe out Israel, and we see about a 5% correction.

     

    Oddly enough, most of the investments being made by folks talking on the QC are in plays and sectors where such an event might well boost the value of their investments in things like precious metals, energy, and defense contractors.
    27 Aug 2013, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for offering some thoughts, trip.

     

    But I have a couple of quibbles.

     

    -- The S&P 500 is already down 4.5% from the top, so your 5% guess is almost already in the rear view mirror. Tomorrow, most likely, the market will trend further downward, with Syria fear occupying most of the MSM chatterheads chat. If we/NATO don't strike Thursday, then it likely won't occur until Saturday early morn, in respect for a Friday traditional prayer day that I admittedly don't know a whole lot about. However, from a technical standpoint, we MIGHT actually bounce a little tomorrow, or just remain flat on the day. But the technicals further out, imply that the S&P will continue downward, albeit sporadically over the next few weeks.

     

    -- Trading volume is very low, as usual this time of the year. Thing is, there are no buyers. This morning the market opened with about 25M shares traded. Normally, it's around 100M shares. The buyers are simply not there.

     

    -- Gold was up today, and so were the miners this morning. Then almost all the miners I track dropped like a popped balloon as the day progressed; dropping from being up 2% or 3%, to close down 3, 4, some even south of 5%. SAND is looking attractive again. If you have time, check out ABX's chart for today. Odd behavior, with gold going up as it did.

     

    -- SPY slammed downward through to 50 DMA, today. Check out this chart from Stockcharts.com! That's some kind of momentum spurt. Oddly, the 200 DMA is VERY close to my 154 buy call, at 154.92., as you can see below:

     

    http://bit.ly/VftQkL
    27 Aug 2013, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I think that most of the current correction might well be in the rear view mirror. The idea that BO would intervene is not new (although the Thursday "leak" is rather specific for a policy shift of this magnitude). Perhaps this is the new technique, intended to soften shocks to the market? Ouch, for a second there I was trying to think like the operators in the WH...

     

    If he does what all the whispers/leaks mention, ie, a very limited, very targeted, very symbolic strike with a very small number of missiles seeking WMD targets (wow, I hate the old Iraq War formulae)... AND the Iranians get the memo (well, I know they GOT one, but will they "get" it? wink, wink), it will be a tempest in a tea cup.

     

    Normally I am very ready to bet on an American President's ability to drag us into another monstrous mess we should avoid at all costs, but this time I just don't think he will go the full yard.

     

    Could he take a mis-step and push the Iranians into nuking (and yes, I believe they might have a nuke by now) Israel? Yes. Its just my opinion that this particular event won't do that.

     

    Perhaps I really shouldn't comment on this one, I'm so divorced from plays that would be endangered by this sort of fracas that I lack skin in the game.

     

    From everything I have been able to dig up (after MUCH determined digging since the Flash Crash), low volume market days are days where the quantmonkies are NOT out there consuming 70% of the volume universe. It could still be significant in some fashion, but I am befuddled by how one interprets a rigged game when the rules change. Did the quants have to pause their incessant trading because their programmers could not agree on which stocks to vandalize today?

     

    For once I fled the scene of SAND before it dropped, literally hit the high for it, AG and SLW when I sold. I DID add some initial positions that got steamrolled by the drop this afternoon, though, but I am just waiting on those October Calls to recover for now. It certainly did stop me acquiring more, however.
    27 Aug 2013, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Some extended thoughts...

     

    "Durable goods orders just came in below expectations, primarily because aircraft orders were slow, but is that important trend line indicating a major correction? No. All the current longer term trends (even for planes) are intact. We would have to see several more months of similar results to infer confirmation of a coming correction in that sector."

     

    In the event of an attack upon Syria, the situation for durable goods could well be strongly affected. Usually this sort of environment is "target rich" for sellers of big, expensive things to corporations and governments. Aircraft, defense items, trucks, etc. The biggest segment in this report of decreases was from government spending, something which would inevitably reverse in the event of a new war...

     

    "Recent new home sales dropped (after experiencing some months of strong growth), but is that a good indicator? New home sales are only about 7% of the overall market nowadays, and the sales of existing homes were still strong. Some pundits started inventing new ideas back in 2008 when financial gravity was repealed by government fiat, one of which was that interest rates and housing have an inverse relationship. Wrong. The history (pre-government fumbling) is the exact opposite, with housing and interest rates moving together, right up UNTIL the yield curve flips over at some insane high interest rate. We are so far from such a situation that its as invisible as Elliott (the dragon, not the wave)."

     

    How would the Fed (and interest rates) react to a Syrian attack? Again, recent history shows that the Fed will immediately go into "support" mode. Interest rates would be held low and stable, and there would be no talk of "tapering".

     

    "When charting the markets, back when I was a big believer in statistical analysis, the VIX was always a way to predict the immediate weather conditions. Right now it is up slightly from where it was before the Syria announcement, but ONLY slightly. The spikes we have seen during major economic events were much higher, and the curves much more dramatic. We have gone from "coma-like" to "semicoma-like". Not a supportive stat for the scenario."

     

    I believe we WILL see the VIX go up from its (really quite moderate) current levels. What I hope will not happen is another mountain climb to nosebleed panic levels.
    27 Aug 2013, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    TB,

     

    I am curious about your thoughts on Putin's support of Assad and the Snowden asylum signal.

     

    "Here be dragons" that are invisible?

     

    EDIT: I see this is already being discussed further down the thread.

     

    I wonder, would Putin feel the need to block a Saudi- Qatari-Syrian NG pipeline to Europe weigh more heavily than the West believes?

     

    http://bit.ly/16NSgUM

     

    http://bit.ly/17jIdYy
    28 Aug 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Putin is NOT our buddy. Never has been. Russia is in the geopolitical war for the long haul, and we are smack in his way, even if our national leadership authority doesn't know it.

     

    Of course, Putin will use intermediaries to do as much of the grunt work as possible, including the Syrian thugmeister.

     

    I view things like this situation as tiger traps for the unwary nation state lacking competent leadership.
    28 Aug 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Rumors fly.

     

    Putin Orders Massive Strike Against Saudi Arabia If West Attacks Syria

     

    http://bit.ly/17jIHOh
    28 Aug 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    No way. Putin won't do that.
    28 Aug 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    I agree, but if Israel somehow gets involved....
    28 Aug 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Correct. Israel is at risk (they are ALWAYS at risk). And one reason I think we might see BO put one foot in the punji sticks (though I don't believe he will leap in with both feet, as perhaps Bush would have) is that he habitually discounts Israel.

     

    There is a real (but I believe very small) chance that Iran will do the heavy lifting and attack Israel. If they do this they will probably not even know they are acting on behalf of folks like Putin. Their ideological blinders are some of the thickest and most dense material in the known universe.
    28 Aug 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    :-) SAND started higher today and closed lower than yesterday while gold was up better than 1.5%. ???? Did one of SAND's streams dry up?
    27 Aug 2013, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    We don't know yet, but one explanation could be selling by a SAND insider. This has been happening recently, with that person shifting funds into SAND's sister company, STTYF, which has been skating close to dropping back into penny stock territory.

     

    I have not heard any royalty stream news that would explain this, however.
    27 Aug 2013, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, I would be worried they went under. Dry up would be just a short term issue I believe as many are most likely working the heaviest concentration areas which gives them an opportunity to reduce hours but keep production up (more ounces per hour) and they have canx most of the exploratory till prices come back up. Some are not selling so SAND might not be getting as many deliveries but I would assume they are still due their payment each month but can not say with out seeing a contract.

     

    Reduced ounces or no ounces will definitely effect SAND I would assume and of course maybe SAND is not selling too at these low prices so they have no income. The numbers can look bad but not really mean its bad.
    27 Aug 2013, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    Russia is evacuating its citizens from Syria(those that opt to leave). The first 180 are leaving, estimates are 30K Russians are in Syria.
    Here is an article that states any attacks on Syria probably would not be before Sunday. That's when the UN delegation is supposed to leave. But, they do state Thursday is the latest rumor.
    http://bit.ly/1dpfzdC
    28 Aug 2013, 03:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Most of the Russians in Syria are at the Russian naval terminal, or serving as advisers (mostly military) to the government. Russia is very intent on acquiring long term basing rights there.

     

    In past similar situations, Russia has not hesitated to place its personnel in the mix with very dicey military adventures ongoing. In fact, it is a favorite tactic. So long as one really doesn't care whether those people live or die, there are real strategic and geopolitical advantages to this tactic. This greatly complicates the competition's options, and limits their flexibility, while opening all sorts of PR and local political advantages for the Russians.

     

    Hopefully all this is being included in the advice BO is getting in Washington...
    28 Aug 2013, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5182) | Send Message
     
    Did you see this one, TB? http://seekingalpha.co...
    28 Aug 2013, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    No, though I had heard about the leaks and the meeting (if it happened). I am not certain it did, nor did the lack of denial from the Saudis prove anything (such a rumor strengthens them and is actually good PR for the Saud monarchy's power, whereas denial would lead to speculation as to why they were NOT using their influence in just that way).

     

    Right now I think I see extra capacity (in some nasty places, though, like Libya, Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela, etc) with a desire to pump more, rather than less. Creation of a new cartel (Russia has avoided joining OPEC many times in the past) now seems far too pat. I believe they will continue to be quiet "associates" and sometime allies, however... Particularly when it comes to fleecing the woebegone Europeans.

     

    If I were OPEC/Russia I would be very focused on the prospect for large increases in production in Europe and the Americas through the new fracking tech, which is now mainstream. Any oil supply disruption will see a rapid move toward NG...

     

    And that leads to where a subtle play MIGHT exist, and its interesting to me because prices are still quite low for NG.

     

    If nothing else, I would look into going long a good NG ETF. I have not invested in that area in over 3 years. I really must look into it...
    28 Aug 2013, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    OK, initial look at the NG concept:

     

    I used to trade FCG on a seasonal basis, and exited a winner with solid (but not stellar) results at the time. Its still the lowest fee entry in the sector at only 60bp (basis points), and it returns a small .5% dividend.

     

    For the more aggressive, there is the idea of going long with GASL, or perhaps more crazy yet, going short with GASX...

     

    EVERYONE be sure to do lots of research before doing anything in this vein, this is certainly one of the wildest of gambles!
    28 Aug 2013, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Some background which I always used when investing with FCG was a quick review of the immediate buying season prospects in the Northern US. Frankly I see indications that we might have a very cool, wet winter (which is a good thing for NG sales). FAR more research is needed, but it does look interesting as an exploratory thesis...
    28 Aug 2013, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Bought FCG 9/21 Calls $18.00 for $.15...
    29 Aug 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    Russian gold holdings pass 1000 metric tons.

     

    http://bit.ly/17lW5zw
    28 Aug 2013, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9600) | Send Message
     
    mining industry charts. Good graphics

     

    http://bit.ly/1fiZd22
    28 Aug 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    Oil tankers moving-

     

    (VLCCF) up 5%
    (EGLE) also up 5%

     

    Also (SDRL) up 4% ahead of earnings at 11:00
    28 Aug 2013, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I am not long SDRL right now, though still monitoring it...

     

    I bought VLCCF a few months back at $6.30, and have since cashed two dividends. Now up 74.6% and still waiting for a pullback or an excuse to sell those shares.
    28 Aug 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4089) | Send Message
     
    (SDRL)
    Earnings 2nd Q $3.68
    Increases cash dividend by 3 cents to $0.91

     

    http://bit.ly/17jV7pw
    28 Aug 2013, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Interfax reports representatives of Russia and China have left a UN Security Council session on Syria.
    28 Aug 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Interesting. The last time this sort of thing happened, we ended up with the Korean, er, "Police Action".

     

    And its not even Thursday yet.

     

    Wow. Why did I suddenly flash on that hilarious photo of Dukakis riding around in a tank with a huge helmet on his pointy head, but this time with BO's face photoshopped into place?
    28 Aug 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2698) | Send Message
     
    Some speculation here: could the US admin. be using the "Syrian gas attack" as a reason for making all sorts of military noises, with the hopes of letting a bit of "toxic gas" out of the equities bubble?

     

    A good oil scare, with no real consequence for the economy, might do the trick. At least to some extent. The POTUS has to be worried by the potential for a massive break in the markets with some type of nasty news, like a EU country actually, loudly defaulting. Venting out 5 or 10% of the "market gas" could be seen as an improvement. At the low cost of maybe 50 mil worth of cruise missiles. Just a "live fire" exercise for the military. They need some fun once in a while :-)
    28 Aug 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    SHB, that's some serious tin foil ya got goin' there!
    28 Aug 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2698) | Send Message
     
    RE: economic driven cruise missile strike on Syria.

     

    >SMartin I'm not so sure it's all that far into "tinfoil" territory. I can think of few other reasons for the POTUS to be waving cruise missiles around. I admit it's a stretch if he actually fires them, but what about "jawing up" the oil fear factor as an attempt to vent off some of the "market bubble gas"?

     

    Of course it could be a PR thing to spread balm over the congressional hawks, maybe. Or fundraising amongst the weapons makers? hummm
    30 Aug 2013, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Hilarious pic up top there, trip!
    28 Aug 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Head of the class...
    28 Aug 2013, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    To me, one of the scariest of charts out there right now is the 30-year T-Bill.

     

    Even with the recent .20% pullback from August 19 -- oddly, the same day a super (not-so) secret, very large attended FSOC meeting Voldemorte called -- the 30-year T-Bill is up significantly, recently.

     

    From February 28, to August 27th, the 30 year has risen 19.68%.

     

    The theme of the required meeting was to discuss the implementation of the (fatalistic) Dodd-Frank Bill...but I wonder if the theme was more about how to stall the rapidly rising 30-year.

     

    The coincidence of the .20% pullback since this meeting is suspicious.
    http://yhoo.it/16RshMi#symbol=^tyx;range=6m;...
    28 Aug 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I mentioned the plan to start driving investors toward longer term debt about 6 months ago, I think. Its not a new idea. FAR too much of the nation's debt is very short term, and although that means its also low interest rates (right now), the lack of long term holdings means the chance to lock down the current low rates long term is passing. This is both a strategic and economic necessity for the country, particularly given the spastic leadership and drunken sailor spending.

     

    I would be more alarmed if this were NOT being done.

     

    If it also sheds some light into the true state of affairs, perhaps that is a positive as well.

     

    The Dodd-Frank debacle is another story, though.
    28 Aug 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Got logic?

     

    http://bit.ly/1ci91tB
    28 Aug 2013, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    LOL, Krugman is a better debater than he is an economist. I recently took one of his quotes and inserted it into a political discussion on the side of a Libertarian point of view and my opponent's head exploded. Since I am NOT an economist or academician, LOL again, I guess I can get away with such a sleight of hand.

     

    In general terms it is really not very accurate to lump Freidman in with the Austrian School, simply because they are perceived to be politically right of Krugman's krew of modern progressives of various stripes.

     

    Personally I find fault with the idea that there is a "pure" economic model that best addresses all potential human conditions. Capitalism itself is perhaps merely the best of a large pantheon of failed systems, and it is no substitute for other important things like the rule of law. Free markets are not possible in a state of anarchy, so appropriate (hopefully minimalist) laws are needed to sustain a healthy environment for free markets to thrive.

     

    We should never forget that no system can replace human guidance and oversight.
    28 Aug 2013, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (3147)