Seeking Alpha

QuickChat's  Instablog

QuickChat
Send Message
QuickChat manager.
  • QC#262, September 3, 2013 302 comments
    Sep 3, 2013 4:17 PM

    (click to enlarge)

    'Inside the Mountain' all rights reserved, Stan Bruns 2013

Back To QuickChat's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (302)
Track new comments
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    Is that the NSA bunker?
    3 Sep 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin: New bulk data center out in Utah I think. hard to recognize because it's encrypted (protection against the other big spy org they compete with - Google Satellite, Car, Glasses, ...).

     

    HardToLove
    3 Sep 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    Hard to encrypt that missile cone sticking up out of the silo on the right.

     

    I can see it even without my tinfoil goog Glasses!

     

    I never realized they were such a pastoral agency.
    3 Sep 2013, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    Smaturin: See it worked! What you mistook for a missle cone was a raised middle finger to privacy rights of citizens! They "Photoshopped it" to disguise it.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Sep 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    HTL-

     

    Didn't they call that the Patriot something or other? I can feel the love-
    3 Sep 2013, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Flipped GASL calls, bought .50, sold .70, quick profit. NOT one to linger in!

     

    Narrowing my plans for SAND, SLW and FCG calls given the news effect, all in the black, but I doubt I will see any doubles short term.

     

    Accumulating LYSDY around .35.
    4 Sep 2013, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    Re: LYSDY

     

    Love your optimism. Nice move on GASL!
    4 Sep 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Lynas is trading as though its brand new $billion plant - the LAMP - in Malaysia were a complete write-off (its currently entering phase 1 production), PLUS the company's producing Mount Weld operation is worth about half the JPM estimate. At $.75 it would be a fair price IF the LAMP fell into a black hole. At $.35 (with a producing LAMP) its oversold.

     

    LOL, imo of course. Anyone interested do some DD, starting with reading back over my REE Concentrator for a few months or so (good links on there from some very smart people).
    4 Sep 2013, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2333) | Send Message
     
    >HTL, do you have an entry point you like for trading (CPST)? I remember a brief discussion a few weeks back...
    4 Sep 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    SHB: I expecting the gap to fill $1.03-$1.08. It's taking its sweet time getting there, but from my intra-day eyeballing it looks like today will finally hit $1.08 again. Be aware this has demonstrated support three prior times and might do so again.

     

    If it doesn't, then I'm feeling pretty good that it should get near $1.03. If there's a little overshoot, $1.02-$1.00 even.

     

    Upside risk will be only from new orders PR at this point. Sans that, I like the chances of $1.03 and would be comfortable anywhaere below $1.08.

     

    If it bounces off $1.08, try $1.10.

     

    Longer-term risk: if we were slightly mislead about the status of orders left on the dock for credit problems and they weren't resolved *when* they said they were, revenue, and therefore GM and earnings could be lower than expected next Q again.

     

    That would be bad ju-ju.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    EDIT! The chart is currently in a near-term descending triangle which breaks down 64% of the time, per Bulkowski.
    4 Sep 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    SHB: A little more discussion on what I think (CPST) might do.

     

    http://bit.ly/1cHeZo1

     

    HardToLove
    4 Sep 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I love trading channels, HTL. I don't quite see one right now, but yes, it COULD happen. I think if it does, its going to happen soon (and represent some interesting skillsets for interested investors).

     

    A strong trading channel (with volume to support it over time) has been one of the better indicators of good long term prospects in my experience.

     

    For Capstone to begin to present these characteristics right now is particularly investable.
    4 Sep 2013, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2333) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL! I see it broke 1.08 today. I will watch closely.
    4 Sep 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    TB: That channel I ref is just a very short-term one. Couldn't even attempt it until the break below the descending triangle happened today. With only origin and one touch, I don't consider it even a short-term channel yet - just a possible. And it would be only the short-term version - not the sort we would want to play - spread too small to make more than lunch money.

     

    It's value, to me, is seeing it (not?) behave as I expect. It gives me a sense of whether I'm reading things right. For right now, my thesis is we hit $1.03. But having that new *potential* support in place lets me confirm that's likely (breaks the potential support) or doubt it's likely (bounces off the potential support).

     

    I think it helps me make a decision that is more likely correct.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Sep 2013, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10319) | Send Message
     
    Reading around "our" various threads today, there's been some discussion of a looming correction, due in part to Syria.

     

    Yesterday, we discussed the American Homes for Rent potential debacle.

     

    It may still be a year or two away, but if we are to see a significant correction, it will be most likely due to another housing crisis.

     

    Plus...

     

    I've been monitoring insider selling for much of this year. While the FED is propping up the market, insiders are selling at a record pace.

     

    I stumbled into this Wealth Daily article released today, of which I extracted the following (from my Hotmail account):

     

    Insiders and the Financial Crisis
    The housing crash in 2007/2008 and ensuing financial crisis is a great example of insider selling.

     

    Think about it...

     

    Banks were using incredibly lax standards to issue hundreds of billions' worth of loans to risky borrowers.

     

    They then packaged those loans as high-yielding mortgage bonds (mortgage-backed securities) and sold them to hedge funds, pension funds, and other banks.

     

    The sellers knew those mortgage bonds were highly risky, just as they knew the loans they had made were risky. That's why they sold them.

     

    Now, this may seem like a pretty extreme example, but it's not. Remember, Wall Street's goal is to buy low and sell high.

     

    So any time Wall Street starts selling, it's a good indication that the price is high, and the insiders want to take their money off the table.

     

    Right now, Wall Street is getting its money out of one particular asset class: housing.

     

    What These IPOs Mean
    You may recall back in the financial crisis days, several funds sprung up for the purpose of buying foreclosed real estate on the cheap, anticipating that those homes could be resold later for a profit.

     

    Well, those home are now being sold — though not in the way you might expect...

     

    On July 31, 2013, a company called American Homes 4 Rent (NYSE: http://bit.ly/18DBTbE) held an initial public offering of shares at $16 a share. The company had hoped to raise $1.25 billion at its IPO. But demand for the shares wasn't strong enough, so it had to “settle” for $706 million.

     

    Now, American Homes 4 Rent was the brainchild of billionaire B. Wayne Hughes. He made his fortune with Public Storage (NYSE: http://bit.ly/18DBTbI). Hughes still personally owns around 65,000 shares worth close to $10 million. And an entity called “B. Wayne Hughes Et Al” that I assume is a trust fund has sold around $48 million worth of Public Storage shares in the last 18 months.

     

    Anyway, over the last few years, American Homes 4 Rent spent $3.4 billion to buy 19,825 single-family homes. Its plan is to rent the homes to generate revenues.

     

    As of its latest earnings report, June 30, 56% of its houses were under lease. It lost $14 million in that quarter. Analysts hope the company can make $144 million in 2014.

     

    By virtue of the IPO, American Homes 4 Rent recouped $706 million of its investment by selling stock to the public. Of course, before the IPO, the company sold $1.2 billion worth of shares to institutional investors.

     

    So, of the $3.4 invested in single-family homes, it's already gotten $2 billion back. And more is on the way...

     

    On Monday, September 30, insiders will be eligible to sell shares on the open market for the first time. Three months after that, another lock-up period will expire, and insiders will dump shares again.

     

    And AMH isn't the only business like this. There's Silver Bay Realty Trust (NYSE: http://bit.ly/18DBTrY), which ran as high as $22 after its IPO, yet currently trades for $15.50. And there's American Residential Properties (NYSE: http://bit.ly/18DBV3c), which went public at $21 and has fallen to $17. And Blackstone (NYSE: BKX) spent $5 billion on 32,000 homes, and is planning to cash out with an IPO sometime soon.

     

    The Housing Recovery that Wasn't

     

    Obviously, investors haven't done too well with these home rental stocks.

     

    And there's a good reason why...

     

    The housing recovery we've seen in the U.S. isn't all its cracked up to be.

     

    For one, Bernanke's low interest rates have helped fuel demand. And two, investors like the Blackstone and others make up as much of 25% of the recent homebuyers.

     

    But now that interest rates have started to rise, fewer people are buying. And Wall Street is getting out.

     

    If you're thinking about buying a house, wait a few months. Prices are going to come down.

     

    And don't buy what Wall Street is selling.

     

    ####

     

    Can't begin to offer a when, but the double whammy of record insider selling, and possibility of another housing crisis looming, may provide, or be the key ingredients for a major correction in the coming 12 to 36 months.

     

    Syria, may only be a blip.
    4 Sep 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    The situation with the big rental home initiatives is, indeed, very worrisome.

     

    The "wealth effect" which one sees in the attitudes of property owners when that property starts to appreciate is also reasserting itself after being absent since 2008. The fact that much of this effect has been engendered by one time mass purchases distorting some markets (and completely absent from most others) just means that it is even more surreal (and less tethered to logic) than the last time! This sort of self-denial does NOT apply to the readers here, but I encounter it in the general public with appalling regularity. When the topic about the economy comes up, they quickly bring up the internet estimate of the value of their home which has risen x dollars (though of course still nowhere near its 2007 number) so, of course the economy is growing by leaps and bounds! Younger folks nearby just gape wordlessly at them, since they are judging the economy on their job (or lack of it), their income, and their disposable income after expenses.

     

    What we have is a sharp bifurcation between those who "live on the economy" and those who are in some sense either sheltered or who have deluded themselves into believing they are "OK".

     

    It takes just a little critical thought to see the political ramifications here. Maintaining even a large minority of the population in this fantasy even through just the next election cycle in 2014 is an incredibly valuable political asset... And thus these companies will be ranked among the most valued cronies in Washington DC, and their efforts will be rewarded and enabled at every turn by the powers that be (at least until the next election).

     

    I could never stomach actually investing in any of these things, but I would also caution against shorting them, given the likelihood of government sweeping in with ex post machina manna from heaven.

     

    As for them triggering another recession (hence a very deep correction, of course) that is altogether possible at some point, though again, I believe Washington will do almost ANYTHING to prevent it until after those election results are tabulated.

     

    Those of us who live in major metropolitan markets where the activities of the Blackrock hedgies have been most concentrated can easily see the effect (the oh so temporary effect).
    Its also clear that government is poised to step in with support at the least provocation
    4 Sep 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10319) | Send Message
     
    Totally agree, trip. No way is the FED going to allow another major stock dip, but a correction is another entire discussion.

     

    ####

     

    Just learned that the new Tomahawk cruise missiles cost much more than $1.4M per. The old guidance systems have been hugely improved, as has the speed of the missile (headed to where no people are?), which used to be Mach 1, and now is at least Mach 2, if not Mach 3.

     

    Also, the idea that the statesman Putin stopped delivery on some missiles to Syria is part of the chess game he's so good at. The real truth is that Syria still hasn't paid for the missiles they previously received from Russia, and the missiles that Putin said he is stopping delivery on, were not to be delivered until 2016!

     

    ####

     

    Lastly, my broker thinks that if Europe can turn in a 1.5% growth next year, China stays above 6%, Japan 1%, he's predicting a global GNP growth of around 3% next year, which would set the markets off to the races. He also expects another end of the year tax sell off, making for a short term buy late in December, and sell mid-to-late January trading possibility.

     

    ####

     

    Bought 25,000 shares of LYSCF today.
    4 Sep 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Calafia is one I monitor, just to get a read on the mindset he represents, and besides, sometimes his arguments make sense to me. This is one of those cases.
    5 Sep 2013, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10319) | Send Message
     
    Some home builder tickers:

     

    CTX, DHI, KBH, LEN, RYL, MHO, BECN, BLDR, MAS, XHB
    4 Sep 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8499) | Send Message
     
    Thorium getting some respect finally thanks to Fukushima. Folks are starting to wake up.

     

    http://bit.ly/15zNZaI

     

    Replacing uranium with thorium in present reactors is now being tested.

     

    http://bit.ly/15zO1PO
    4 Sep 2013, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >doubleguns ... I can't believe a straight fuel swap will work very well.
    4 Sep 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    Drich: I suspect the Lightbridge (LTBR) technology will be used. They've been developing variations of thorium applied to existing reactor designs for a very long time. This predicated on the POV that changing the existing infrastructure would be very difficult but using what they''ve already got with some new fuel assemblies designed to work with what they've got would be more readily accepted.

     

    http://www.ltbridge.com

     

    HardToLove
    4 Sep 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... I agree that Lightbridge would be the choice but it entails quite a few modifications. It can be shoehorned into an existing reactor but will not be a straight swap.
    4 Sep 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    The Indians have a government-sponsored program which is very serious, and the Chinese have at least 2, plus a number in the private sector.

     

    GWMGF owns a thorium mine which also has one of the heaviest and richest monazite rare earth ore deposits ever found. It is almost renovated, and they are midway in constructing their first phase of a new processing plant. Thorium is sequestered on site (they have a full long term nuclear license from the South African government) right now, but could be turned into a profitable product if future demand warrants...
    4 Sep 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2806) | Send Message
     
    DRich
    LTBR has been testing in reactors for about 5 years now.
    IIRC
    (It's been a while since I've looked at this.)
    2008 was the beginning.
    They should be done testing in 2017. At which point they can sell the product. I think they can take orders starting in 2015.
    They also have a metal uranium rod (Also undergoing testing but testing for this is much shorter) that could be sold sooner. The metal rods can increase the amount of power produced by a reactor 10 to 25% depending on what the reactor can handle. Also It may reduce down time by about a third.
    4 Sep 2013, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2333) | Send Message
     
    Guns, I don't see how using some thorium in the fuel rods (Lightbridge tech) of an existing, old tech, poorly managed reactor would make any difference. The fission products are still highly radioactive. If you crack open the core after the fuel rods have melted down, it will leak nasty stuff.
    5 Sep 2013, 03:24 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2806) | Send Message
     
    SHB
    " If you crack open the core after the fuel rods have melted down, it will leak nasty stuff."
    If not kept together it cools and solidifies. Heat plugs that melt if it gets too hot with separate pipes holding portions is an easy answer.

     

    Fucushima would not have happened with this set up.

     

    They had one Thorium plant they shut off for the weekends. On Monday they turned on the heaters and in a little while they were good to go.

     

    Thorium is still radioactive and will remain so for 500 or so years..... Still ... this is far better than 50,000 yrs.
    Also while you can make dirty bombs with it, chemical weapons are easier so why bother?
    Also Thorium will not go Ka -Boom. A definite plus in my book.

     

    While I've read a few good discussions on it, my own knowledge is too superficial to be a lot of use.
    Cautiously optimistic is probably the most realistic description I've heard.
    5 Sep 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8499) | Send Message
     
    Froggy most of the thorium burns up in the process so that eliminates the radioactive waste in the molten salt thorium reactors. In fact they can be used to burn up some of the nuclear waste we presently have.

     

    http://smrt.io/14o0WU8
    5 Sep 2013, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8499) | Send Message
     
    Dr. Rich they refer to it as thorium-MOX
    5 Sep 2013, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2806) | Send Message
     
    DG
    Yes Lightbridge uses a 'seed in blanket' Essentially a lumpy inner rod of thorium and a covering of uranium. (Can be made from waste uranium)

     

    I was responding to SHBs concern of a cracked open core, that leaks, as is happening in Japan.

     

    Thanks for the link! I should catch up on things again.
    5 Sep 2013, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2333) | Send Message
     
    >froggey77: Reread and contemplate the first sentence of my comment 5 sep, 3:24 AM.
    6 Sep 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8499) | Send Message
     
    Hillbilly, Not sure that the process shuts down just like a molten process if the inner core is breached or overheats but I would assume these (assume can be foolish) rods are not going to create the type of radioactive by-products and we begin to move to thorium which is a big improvement over what we are using now.
    Eventually we move to the molten salt thorium reactors as these older versions with a hybrid system become to old to run. (I will be the first to admit it could all be wishful thinking but it is a step twords that wish so it puts a smile on my face.)
    9 Sep 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2806) | Send Message
     
    It seems Cornell has independently tested the E-Cat and thinks it works.
    Peer review of the paper has yet to be done.

     

    http://bit.ly/17UsYXv

     

    Indication of anomalous heat energy production in a reactor device
    4 Sep 2013, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    >HTL, DG, Trip, Maya, OG, LT, SM, DRich, SHB et al

     

    We're going to need better tin foil and colanders!

     

    http://nyti.ms/16352zr

     

    WT
    5 Sep 2013, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Its hard to be surprised. The NSA has been tasked for long decades with doing precisely what it has done, in so far as creating the capability to do all those things listed in the article. Now, as to whether any particular use that capability might be put to...

     

    Its the old MAD (mutually assured destruction) days of the Cold War, only applied to the digital universe instead of the analog.

     

    We managed (with more luck than skill, imo) to avoid actually triggering Armageddon during the half century long Cold War, and there are some who look back on those years with something akin to sentiment (being of normal sanity, LOL, I do not). So I suppose there is precedent for a government building the ability to do something, and yet never actually doing it...

     

    Things like this make me flash on scenes from the movie "V", and quotes like "People should not fear the government, Government should fear the people". Unfortunately, this appears to bear the bitter fruit of that fear, as the government prepares to defend itself from its own citizens.

     

    Its a heckuva way to run a railroad, gang.
    5 Sep 2013, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    It fits perfectly with my oft stated assertion that there is no tool available that government or business will not abuse.

     

    It's a sorry situation in that it is constantly proven correct.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Sep 2013, 05:50 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8499) | Send Message
     
    Its a heckuva way to run a railroad, gang.

     

    I hope it is the "Short Line" and the track runs out sooner than those aboard think.
    9 Sep 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2806) | Send Message
     
    A new use for buildings.
    Melting cars.

     

    Scorched! How This Skyscraper Melted a Parked Car
    http://bloom.bg/1dKguoi

     

    Surfaces can get up to 200 degrees F
    No big deal. it only happens a for 2hours few weeks twice a year.
    On the plus side it shortens employee smoking breaks. although it may be the people not their cigarettes that are smoking. :)
    5 Sep 2013, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    Gonna need a whole body tinfoil suit soon.

     

    You think the NSA has infiltrated the architects to build giant mirrors for their eavesdropping systems?
    6 Sep 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Payrolls up -- for now -- until they get revised down like June and July were (see below.) And employers announced 50,462 layoffs last month which is up 33.8 percent since July: http://reut.rs/13nPBkd

     

    Mixed bag IMO -- but futures still up so game still on. :-))

     

    Treasurys rally on payrolls; 10-year yield: 2.885%

     

    U.S. adds 169,000 jobs in August; July weaker

     

    U.S. gains 169,000 jobs in August

     

    U.S. unemployment rate falls to 7.3% from 7.4%

     

    U6 jobless rate drops to 13.7% from 14.0%

     

    Labor participation rate lowest since 1978

     

    Average hourly wages rise 5 cents to $24.05

     

    Average workweek edges up 0.1 hour to 34.5

     

    July job gain slashed to 104,000 from 162,000

     

    June job gain cut to 172,000 from 188,000
    6 Sep 2013, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    >MJ-

     

    Thanks!

     

    This is the one that gets most of my attention:

     

    "Labor participation rate lowest since 1978"

     

    IMHO the most important stat there- People have given up looking.I don't think:

     

    "U.S. gains 169,000 jobs in August"

     

    even covers new entrants to the market.

     

    In spite of what spinmaster illusions are created I firmly believe we're entering a new recession.

     

    Man the lifeboats!
    8 Sep 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Agree on the risks WT.

     

    You may like reading a brief commentary by Michael Gayad who points out the warnings the bond market seems to be issuing: "Be careful in thinking the bond market does not matter. This has never been about level of rates, but speed. What is happening now is reminiscent of historical crisis periods."

     

    He also provides a link to a good chart which plots every time Corporate Baa bond yields have jumped by more than 18% as they recently did. It certainly suggests the need to keep an eye on the SPEED of bond yield spikes.

     

    http://bit.ly/17JVCt2
    8 Sep 2013, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8499) | Send Message
     
    Mercy, which article. I get a list of articles at that link.
    9 Sep 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    DG,

     

    The article I mention is his 9/8 Weekly commentary. The bond yield spike chart I reference is on this Twitter feed: http://bit.ly/18PdAr9

     

    mj
    9 Sep 2013, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    As the President Marches on (with France in tow) hoping to bomb Syria -- this succinct list of "10 things that could go very wrong if we attack Syria" is worth weighing into the equation: http://wapo.st/1dYKrlB
    6 Sep 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (957) | Send Message
     
    Last month I e-mailed our Fla. senators, McCain and Kerry expressing my leave Syria alone opinion. I read those consequences (above), but on the flipside, the administration does have a point that no one will believe us again when we warn against the use or development of WMDs -- gas, nuclear or whatever. Our credibility will be nil.

     

    BTW, I voted for Romney in the two primaries he was in and for president.
    6 Sep 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4181) | Send Message
     
    ung ... Problem I have with your POV is I can't see where this president has any credibility to start with so the argument you make is moot from my POV.
    10 Sep 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    US is evacuating nonessential staff and families from embassy in Lebanon.
    Metals and crude both rising. I am mystified why they didn't earlier in the week! Tapering is the reason given by media. I find that unbelievable, that the market still hasn't factored tapering into the mix!
    6 Sep 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Continue to unbelieve, OG. It is the correct point of view in this case when confronted with spin...

     

    Welcome MJ, great to see you again...

     

    Watch out for a roller coaster ride today, gang. The manipulators are lurking in that last 15 minutes, and they are throwing out their own chum this time around!
    6 Sep 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Thanks TB. A few months away from the market is great for refining perspective/strategy.

     

    In the US market I am exclusively playing very short term moves e.g. (AYR), (TASR), (DDD), (TRW), (TEX) etc. My dividend pursuit is more concentrated on the ASX at the moment. For example I have been adding Primary Health Care PRY:AU, but I am easing in to see market reaction to the Australian election coming up.

     

    The Norwegian election is one I am watching also. I still love Statoil but am now out of that position. If the candidate ahead in the Norwegian polls for PM has her way the Wealth Fund may drop its STO ownership of 67% down to 51%. I am sure they won't do it all at once -- but I prefer not to watch how the market absorbs those millions of STO shares. In addition, Norway oil investment growth is expected to slow to 1% next year versus 15% during the past 2 years. So I am pursuing other sectors in Norway for now -- such as Biometrics for mobile phones.

     

    I see as I write that your "roller coaster" prediction today kicked in early. Glad I had booked my gains yesterday in the US! Time to buy next week.
    6 Sep 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    Guess what Indians are buying with their shrinking rupees-- as they are being bullied out of gold-- they're buying farm land.
    Smart!

     

    The congressman in my district sent out an email asking if he should vote yes or no on Syria. I was happy to see that. I saw a "town hall" type meeting with McCain on the firing line for his hawkish stance. His constituents were shrieking at him.
    Quite possibly Voldemort will be recorded in history as the worst potus ever. Too bad the left will claim it is a matter of racial hatred. It seems we can't recognize gross incompetence without being accused of hate. I realize this is not PC, but I don't care. When is the truth PC?
    6 Sep 2013, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    OG, I would imagine you are a fan of Thomas Sowell.

     

    http://bit.ly/1653hBF
    6 Sep 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    I like Walter Williams too!

     

    HardToLove
    6 Sep 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    I have great admiration and respect for Thomas Sowell.
    Thanks, Dr.!
    6 Sep 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (957) | Send Message
     
    He used to be on a TV show in the '50s (Bergen Evans' The Last Word) that discussed the use of the English language. I was impressed with him back then.
    6 Sep 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    Yes, HTL, me too.

     

    Walter E. Williams is another brave soul who defies the conventional politically correct MSM story, both about race and about economic common sense.

     

    http://bit.ly/14xu5H8
    6 Sep 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2333) | Send Message
     
    I wonder, is the potus jealous of previous president(s) and want his OWN Mideast war? After all, Afghanistan was a hand-me-down war. No prestige in that!
    6 Sep 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    Look at this: Part-time work plunged.
    http://on.mktw.net/18I...
    6 Sep 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    College students went back to school. Happens every August.
    6 Sep 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Seasonality effect will return as retail prepares for Christmas. Until then, the destruction of full-time employment continues apace. Note the recent headlines about IRS treatment of tip income (logical that the IRS will be issuing regular updates as it attempts to compensate for the lack of easily taxed full time job revenue). Next logical development will be a return to very high corporate rates, which is an excellent method of hiding tax increases that otherwise must be levied directly upon individual workers. This way corporate America just passes the hidden taxes along to their customers as higher prices for goods and services...

     

    The upshot will be a marked loss of competitiveness as the higher taxes drive American exports down, and the spiral of outsourcing and American corporations moving offshore re-ignites.

     

    Same old same old.
    8 Sep 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    $(CPST): For those following, another post, with link to a chart.

     

    http://bit.ly/14vuyik

     

    And in reply to a post suggest $1.15 coming ...

     

    http://bit.ly/14vuK17

     

    HardToLove
    8 Sep 2013, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    Peter Schiff explains the jobs report:
    http://bit.ly/pY3R8e
    8 Sep 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8499) | Send Message
     
    Thanks OG I think he spells it out very well. I have been arguing for a while now that the only fact to worry about is the participation rate. I think those that are participating at under 29.5 hours now adds some problems to that number as well.

     

    However all other numbers have seasonal adjustments and manipulation or difficulty in calculation that result in adjustments later each quarter.
    9 Sep 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    For those who trade in Australia as I do -- this article summarizes how key Abbott policy platforms may influence corporate valuations in various sectors. We have all heard about the mining tax cancellation, but there are some other notable items. For example:

     

    "Removal of the carbon and mining taxes will please the mining industry, but there's a less well-known policy that really has the industry excited about a Tony Abbott-led government. The Coalition has promised to introduce a new tax deduction scheme linked to mineral exploration called the exploration development incentive. ...The policy, which is similar to a scheme that exists in Canada, would allow investors to claim a tax credit for investing money into companies conducting the exploration... The big winners out of the policy would be the small end of the mining sector, which has been worst hit by the slowdown in the industry and the tighter credit environment."

     

    Although with this example the tax credit will likely apply to local residents only, it is bound to create some additional share demand/price appreciation for select small miners.
    http://bit.ly/13y0OyG

     

    I cashed out of some faves which appear IMO overbought like CSL:AU; CBA:AU; and TLS:AU, but I have added and/or am watching PRY:AU; AMC:AU; LEI:AU; ASX:AU and NCM:AU.
    8 Sep 2013, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    DRich,

     

    Sure I personally don't think the repeal of the carbon tax is a done deal -- but the Australians who voted Abbott into power are still giddy over his promise to repeal it. Support for repeal has also grown more recently as dollars collected have been miniscule even from BHP as commodity prices have been strained short term. Nevertheless, some are warning that investor confidence may get rattled with a Labor and Green fight to keep the tax. If so, it may present some good buying opportunities.

     

    My bigger concern relates to how Abbott may compromise Australia's fiscal integrity if he actually tries to keep all of his promises at any cost. He has pledged to let the deficit "blow out" rather than break a spending promise. It will be quite a juggling act for him since he also pledged to reduce the debt!

     

    Any way you slice it -- Abbott and his efforts to keep platform promises which won him the election will have a notable influence on market valuations and investing opportunities.

     

    mj
    9 Sep 2013, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Abbott has a 30 seat majority in Parliament this time (last election his party held just a 1 seat majority, and lost it when 2 members jumped ship to the Left - both of those lost their bid for re-election, btw). The Aussie Parliament only has 150 total seats, so a 30 seat majority is a devastating loss for the Left and Greens. Even together they cannot mount a credible block to anything, and their relationship has been severely broken by the trauma of such a bad beating at the polls. The "coup" which unseated the prior Left/Green leadership which happened a few months before the election was an indication of the deep division within their ranks, and the ultimate failure in the election has only solidified the schism.

     

    Abbott's promises are just that - political hot air. The Left had promised wondrous new tax revenues from hugely increased taxes (representing the usual political hot air driven by zero sum thinking) - and now the Right is promising a reprise of the Chinese miracle markets when they could command top dollars for their commodities selling into a seller's market. This is just as unlikely, of course, since China has long since moved on to the next phase, and has gone global with their commodity contracts.

     

    The reality is that Abbott is unlikely to be able to fulfill all his promises, but his approach will be in line with the idea of competing for business in a global marketplace (vs zero sum fantasies). I suspect there will be much disillusionment when the populace finally realizes that the "party is over" and they might have to ratchet back the exuberant days when mining truck drivers earned 4 times the going rate paid anywhere else, and the future was bright feeding the endless Chinese demand.

     

    I expect we will also see a brief "shock" in the markets as winners who backed Abbott shift their bets, and losers among the Greens sell off in disgust.

     

    Its likely that Lynas, for instance, will see a brief sell-off since it has long been supported as an alt-energy play (more than as a serious mining investment, which is odd). It will be chaotic for a time.
    9 Sep 2013, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >Mercy Jimenez ... Isn't it a little soon to get happy about the carbon tax repeal? The upper house is still in Labor & Greens control and a few Independents that vote with them. I do think the Exploration Development Incentive will make it into law.
    8 Sep 2013, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Good point, although due to the byzantine fractional vote apportionment used to compute Senate races, it will be some time before we know what happens. It is thought that the pols in the UH will follow the same shift which evicted Gillard (with prejudice) when they were scrambling to use moderate Rudd for damage control. The Left (and particulary Independents and tiny fringe parties, which might well ally with Abbott) that now must work with the opposition is thinking more like Rudd than Gillard (and compromise is in the air).

     

    The huge majority won for Abbott is being viewed as a new mandate from the voters and a repudiation of minority government, and I believe many members of the Senate will scramble to re-orient toward the center.
    9 Sep 2013, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): Good timing? Right after the Aussie elections provide leadership which promises to eliminate the carbon tax and reduce mining taxes, we get "Capstone Announces Another Follow-On Order for Large Australian Coal Seam Gas Company"

     

    "The latest order is for 14 units, bringing the total number of units sold to date to 248 C30 microturbines. These orders are part of a periodical supply contract for the life of the project, at least five years".

     

    This is apparently part of a long-ago order that estimated 100-400 units. Being low-margin C30s and small quantity, I'm surprised the pre-market is as high as $1.12 on this news. I do not believe it will hold throughout the day - just not enough revenue there to move the CPST needle.

     

    If it hits my descending resistance line today, ~$1,13, I expect it will bounce down again.

     

    http://bit.ly/14FqtDe

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    9 Sep 2013, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    >HTL-

     

    Re: (CPST) Just hit $1.165- Head fake?
    10 Sep 2013, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    WWT: Volumes too good for a head fake. But not so strong that I think it's off to the races. But it's looking like there are some believers now.

     

    Sorry for deley in reply - prime computer broke last night as I slept and I'm running on my Windoze box rebooted to Linux, which I had set up for dual boot long ago. I had also copied over files from my prime box Sunday (something I do every so often JIC). Figured out today how to run Power ETrade Pro, not supported on Linux by ETrade, this A.M.

     

    Looks good except that it's a dog - I think because I'm running the 64-bit flash instead of the recommended 32-bit in Firefox.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Sep 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    Yup-
    I bought a pre-owned Panasonic Toughbook for the sole purpose of running my Fidelity ProTrader software.

     

    What trading stuff do you run on Linux?

     

    WT
    11 Sep 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    WWT: Power Etrade Pro (when not running it on Windows) using the Open Java provided (not the official Java) by Centos (a free re-spin of RedHat Enterprise stable OS) with Firefox browser.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2013, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    http://yhoo.it/18P45by

     

    Currency Wars. It only SOUNDS like a new Xbox game title...
    9 Sep 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Word out of Moscow is that Putin will meet with Iran’s President sometime in the near future. Their foreign minister counterparts will also meet. http://tinyurl.com/p95...
    9 Sep 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Putin has a geopolitical goal which goes far beyond Syria...

     

    I believe we might have seen a small portion of the plan as regards basing rights in the Mediterranean, but I think it goes beyond those waters...

     

    Let's see, Iran has been needing desperately to build a mega-refinery since before the Shah left Tehran. To this day they still have to import refined goods made from their own oil.

     

    Could be a major deal to be made there, and that new refinery will need quite a tanker/pipeline operation to support it, and a major port nearby with access to the Indian Ocean...
    9 Sep 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Check!

     

    Russia says will urge Syria to put chemical weapons under international control if that will avert military strikes.
    9 Sep 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    Isn't that sort of like Iran pretending they are showing the UN and IAEA inspectors their entire nuclear program?

     

    How in Hades do we verify when they hide their weapon supplies in tunnels and caves?

     

    http://bit.ly/18PgZ9r
    9 Sep 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Precisely. The game is afoot...
    9 Sep 2013, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8499) | Send Message
     
    Would that international control be UN control. Obama will not go for the Hocus-pocus of the UN.

     

    http://bit.ly/18PjzfM
    9 Sep 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Reuters - Syria welcomes a Russian proposal to place the nation's chemical weapons under international control, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem said on Monday after talks in Moscow, praising the Kremlin for seeking to "prevent American aggression".

     

    Zugzwang!
    9 Sep 2013, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Yep, and whose status as a statesman is improved, and who gets a new coat of lip gloss?

     

    Voldemort, aka The Ingenue.
    9 Sep 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    The full bafflegab (to steal JP's wonderful term from the APC):

     

    NYT: Kerry Floats a Deal on Arms, and Russia and Syria Seize It

     

    http://nyti.ms/18JOLy7

     

    "Do it in one week... But it can't be done." According to Kerry.
    9 Sep 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    From the horse's mouth?

     

    Security Adviser Susan Rice: Syria Strike Necessary - and Ineffectual by Design
    http://bit.ly/15LomxH

     

    And the ultimate scary scenario comes from the ever imaginative RT:

     

    URGENT: False Flag Involving Israel to Implicate Syria in the Works Says RT
    http://bit.ly/1ey3QHZ
    9 Sep 2013, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    "How do we verify?"

     

    That's where the CIA is supposed to earn their keep-
    9 Sep 2013, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    Like they did with the WMD in Iraq?
    9 Sep 2013, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    LOL, and now we have Syria gassing folks with Iraqi WMDs?

     

    The problem with intelligence information which indicates that something (chemical weapons) was present, but has been moved (probably across a nearby border) is that it simply will not satisfy the need for closure.

     

    The idea that Iraq moved their chemweapon stores to their fellow Baathist regime next door in Syria has been knocking around for a long time. Not long ago it was re-started in the Syria discussion, but one side pointed out that, given the straits the Assad regime was laboring under, surely if they had them they would have used them by now...

     

    False flag denial programs are perhaps inevitable in cases like this.

     

    LOL, after Assad is gone will the CIA comb Syria looking for WMDs, assuming the deal to turn them over to some watchdog organization falls through? Probably, and its likely they won't find them once again... Perhaps they will end up with Syria's old allies in Lebanon?
    10 Sep 2013, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    Ayup-
    10 Sep 2013, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    >SM-

     

    You mean you don't have faith in the credibility of our government?

     

    My, my, my. The Thought Police will find out about that.
    11 Sep 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    John N. mason writing "Federal Reserve Is Pumping Funds Offshore And Not Into Domestic Loans".

     

    But the real story is not in the headline - it's in the body where he discusses smaller banks and C&I loan activity.

     

    It'll be longer-term story though.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    9 Sep 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    Gold is down 1.20% and oil's down 1.5% as Syria threat is relaxed temporarily.
    China news is very good. Time to look at China again-- large cap probably preferable? FXI? Any ideas?
    10 Sep 2013, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Just as with American companies, its a good idea to search for Chinese companies that will benefit from their crony relationships in government and their value in fulfilling the national geopolitical agenda.

     

    China is embarking on a major buildout in the highest tech manufacturing sectors, particularly those centered around the use of rare earth elements (top line magnets would be my first look). The recently constructed REE Cartel was built to SUPPORT this effort (and thus the companies at the core of the cartel are to be avoided, imo, since they will be conduits and sacrificial sources for the real goal, high tech manufacturing). Magnet makers would be a good guess, with those currently suing Hitachi in Chinese courts seeking to overthrow Hitachi's library of patents the most likely to benefit.

     

    I have not researched this since I don't intend to invest in any Chinese companies, though there is an odd workaround in this area, ie, MolyCorp (MCP).

     

    MCP owns the magnet manufacturing and IP which came from Neo (now MCP Canada division), which includes extensive magnet factories in China and SE Asia. Its unfortunate that MCP was so grossly mismanaged and that those effects are still being seen with the stock, but it cannot be ignored in this evaluation...
    10 Sep 2013, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    (CHL) probably the best in comm.
    You sure can't beat that chart-

     

    (ACH) heavy industry bet also

     

    WT
    10 Sep 2013, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    thanks, WT.

     

    take a look at this short video Recommending Chinese consumer stocks rather than (foreign) commodities:

     

    http://bit.ly/18RVmp2
    10 Sep 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    TB- I couldn't agree more with your comment:
    "Just as with American companies, its a good idea to search for Chinese companies that will benefit from their crony relationships in government and their value in fulfilling the national geopolitical agenda."
    That's why I am thinking large cap is the way to go. Plus, there is the dividend.

     

    By the way, did you read about the banks closing mortgage operations? If that isn't a "tell" that we are going to have a leg down in housing market while the interest rates rise, I don't know what is!
    10 Sep 2013, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Yes, OG, if long bond yields keep spiking the housing "recovery" may indeed get further out of reach.

     

    " Since early May, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has increased almost 1.2 points. Over that period, applications to refinance a home dropped 63%, while mortgage applications for a home purchase declined 15%."
    http://on.mktw.net/15g...
    10 Sep 2013, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    My read on the beginning of a drawback by the 2Bigs from doing mortgages has more to do with problems brewing in government with supporting Fannie and Freddie and buying up all the mortgage paper. The WH wants very much for a return to the "anyone with a pulse" loose mortgage issue, BUT they have learned from the near-death experience from the last round that the Party just won't survive another... Therefore the word has gone out to their cronies in the 2Bigs that THIS time the banks have to eat their own cooking (but are still expected to go along with the "anyone with a pulse" concept).

     

    Oops.

     

    The most graceful path for the banks, given the situation, is to find some reason NOT to write mortgages at all.

     

    The (now much smaller) pool of regional and local banks will presumably continue to demand actual collateral and borrowers who can pass a real standard (and put down a good down payment), so what is really at risk is the "anyone with a pulse" policy.

     

    We may indeed see a leg down in loans, but the decrease will primarily come about due to pretty good reasons (which might be good news, medium term).

     

    Interest rates will tend to rise in concert with the economy improving (obviously quite slowly and painfully), and it would also be a welcome sign to see the two once again moving together with equity prices, once sufficient government slop is removed from the equation.

     

    I view the inevitable downspike when the Fed ceases QE as one of those rare, very dependable buying opportunities.

     

    The political element, however, will control, so timing will be tricky.
    10 Sep 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Re-entered GPL at $1.02...

     

    Added LYSDY early... Arbitrage was strong then...

     

    Another way to play China is to play Aussie commodities...

     

    Is it too early for a mild Syria relief rally?
    10 Sep 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    I think the market is discounting an obama threat to syria, imo.
    10 Sep 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Sold off Coldwater Creek at break even...
    10 Sep 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    The head of our department of domestic consumption- a former fan of CC says their products had been high quality- the reverse is the case currently.

     

    She's a Chicos fan now.
    10 Sep 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    CC very recently shed old management (who initiated a run at selling to a more youthful, less quality conscious, target), but it appears that CC is still having to sell off warehouses full of the other merchandise, so the anticipated turnaround (new management is going back to the original, quality-conscious and age appropriate focus) is in train, but hasn't reached the station yet. I suspect the Christmas season will see them making the changeover...

     

    I have elected to bail and see what happens over the next few months.
    10 Sep 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    Good plan on the bail and watch, IMHO.
    10 Sep 2013, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    Here is the piece on housing,refinancing and banking that was a clarifying moment for me ( Note that Wells Fargo would be a possible short):
    http://bit.ly/18RSgRT
    10 Sep 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    "( Note that Wells Fargo would be a possible short):"

     

    That won't make the Oracle of Omaha very happy- I believe WFC is one of if not THE largest holdings in Berkshire.
    10 Sep 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    Sold (TCAP) December $25s @ $4.20 +90%, still holding $30s same expiry.
    10 Sep 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Anyone notice that the IMF is warning the FEd not to taper? http://bit.ly/17Wor1m They repeated the warning at the G20 summit. http://f24.my/15hFoXN
    10 Sep 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Its a hot button topic.
    10 Sep 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Putin sets a condition saying that Syria's chemical weapons deal depends on the U.S. and other nations renouncing the use of force against Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

     

    Overreach.
    10 Sep 2013, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I'm not so sure, FPA. Initial reports are that the French mis-read Putin's demands and have already surrendered to the Syrians...

     

    Just kidding.

     

    Sort of.
    10 Sep 2013, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    Syrian Conflict Goes Back 13 Centuries
    -Bloomberg.com

     

    http://bloom.bg/18ayZQA

     

    >>
    If we (Europe, Russia, the U.S.) all stick our military hands into Syria, there will be plenty of quiet chuckles echoing through the Arab world: “Welcome, you idiots, to exactly where we wanted you. Now do the dirty job for us.”

     

    To understand what is happening in Syria, one must look at the larger picture. And that larger picture is the ancient and bitter Arab-Iranian rivalry, today manifested in the Arab world’s attempts to nip off bits of the Iranian sphere of influence, this particular bit being Syria.
    <<
    10 Sep 2013, 11:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    (LINE): "LINN Energy, LinnCo and Berry Petroleum Company Provide Update on Merger Process"

     

    The only real news is "Furthermore, LINN Energy, LinnCo and Berry Petroleum have agreed to set the record dates for their respective unitholder, shareholder and stockholder meetings as of September 30, 2013".

     

    http://bit.ly/17ZyOlh

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10319) | Send Message
     
    Beat me by a mere minute with that link, HTL.

     

    Going to be interesting to see how LINE trades today. If the premarket is any indication, LINE is going to get a very welcomed pop today. PM, LINE is up $1.37, and 5.47%
    11 Sep 2013, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Yep. And it's looking like my strangle may pay off! Not only the news, but it tends to run up approaching options expiration (next week). Now I'll probably close both puts and calls instead of one at a time - price flat-lined longer than expected and I just got a lot of time decay.

     

    But I was expecting some news one or more of the BRY or SEC front before october to provide volatility to get me some profit.

     

    Call delta now 77% and put delta now -11% - so looking good if any run happens.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2013, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10319) | Send Message
     
    Congrats, Hard! I've been worrying about LINE for months, such that there's a few more on my forehead!
    11 Sep 2013, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): Two industrial customer orders in mexico: one CHP and one CCHP.

     

    http://bit.ly/17pXJl1

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4181) | Send Message
     
    Excellent! Thanks for the link, HTL.

     

    If Europe is actually pulling out of recession as recent data suggest and the new Australian government relaxes de-carbonization and mining controls in line with campaign rhetoric, the pace of new orders could pick up speed.
    11 Sep 2013, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: Last CC it was noted that the EZ had remained flat and they still had reasonable results, ignoring the delayed shipments on the dock due to customer credit issues. I don't know how real the EZ recovery is - everything is suspect in government/CB numbers from everywhere these days, IMO.

     

    But if $ is fleeing here to EZ based on the expectations, could be a self-fulfilling prophecy. That's OK I guess as it makes us $ regardless.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    News on (LINE) and (BRY) merger looking good.
    Line took a jump of over $2.00.
    Sold my line 10/2013 25s for $2.50 for a double in the window of opportunity. Sold the Short Put last week. Good all around.
    Stock declining now- 10:00
    11 Sep 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    WWT: With last short report showing 10,251,567 shares short and a 13%+ rise today, think they feel any pain? My charts says there's lots of running room up yet.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    >HTL-

     

    I think I sold those Calls just a little early-
    (LINE) up 14% at $28.20 up for $3.45 on the day. 13:55

     

    With LINE so erratic tho I can't complain at a double on the calls, plus I had the Puts short that I covered for a nice gain as well.
    11 Sep 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    WWT: Didn't some analyst a while back say $35 price target?

     

    I don't think it'll do it on this leg, but a 2-3 day run up wouldn't surprise me.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    >HTL-

     

    I remember the $35 prediction- Think it was the hedge fund guy that stuck w/Line all the way.

     

    The only LINE stuff I still have is a block of Calls for Jan, 2015 30s and another block for the 35s.

     

    They are up 55% and 35% respectively. The 35s are still 11% underwater, the 30s are 35% to the good.
    11 Sep 2013, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10319) | Send Message
     
    Hard: I agree, there's lots of room to run. Maybe we will soon be beyond the tenuous flak of Hedgeye and Baron's. Today's ~ 12% gain has wiped out about 30% of my "losses." Cautious relief running rampant around this homestead.

     

    Not sure you guys caught this, but Hedgeye recently went after another of my MLPs, Kinder Morgan. Mr. Kinder not only took issue with Hedgeye, but bought around $18M of KMP during the retrace, all but making Hedgeye's castigating assertions slapdash at best.

     

    This SA Contributor has LINE, based on LINE's yield returning to around 9%, rising to $32. Plus, if the Berry deal gets approved, he expects the annual yield to increase beyond $2.90 come this January.

     

    http://bit.ly/14M7uaa
    11 Sep 2013, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    With the price of natural gas rising http://1.usa.gov/AguyqD and the onset of winter likely to drive higher demand players in this sector may be at an attractive price range. I own a substantial long position in the MLP Penn West Energy (PWE) but there are several companies in the sector which look good today.
    11 Sep 2013, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    On that note my play on VLCCF just keeps shooting up. Now up to 9.51 (bought 4 months ago at 6.30, cashed 2 .175 dividends so far), total increase including dividends of 55.7%...

     

    I am pulling together a new high yield raid for oil patch stocks, will post when it starts...
    11 Sep 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    >Trip-

     

    Good positioning on the VLCCF. I got impatient with the volatility and the angst and bailed with a nice profit. I still have a few energy pieces left waiting for a renaissance.

     

    (NTI), CVRR), (PDH), (QRE) and (URRE) All but the URRE putting out a hefty dividend.
    11 Sep 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I have a smallish core holding for URRE that is left over from when I was trading it actively. Average share cost is about .05, so I just let it ride in the sock drawer...

     

    The others are all candidates, if the timing is right, for another trade.

     

    I'm still waiting for the other (bigger) boot to hit the floor in the MiddleEast, ie, Iran (proximate event: Putin summit conference).
    11 Sep 2013, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (957) | Send Message
     
    Not too many months ago, I thought their nearly decrepit fleet made them a sure loser. Times change.
    12 Sep 2013, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10319) | Send Message
     
    Government sells another $811 million in GM stock

     

    But there's the small problem that GM's share price has to double in order for the government to sell the remaining shares to break even. Taxpayers still on the hook for $14.1B.

     

    http://yhoo.it/13Mwe4s
    11 Sep 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    >MAYA-

     

    "Taxpayers still on the hook "

     

    Isn't that a given whenever the government is there to help us?
    11 Sep 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    Why is it?

     

    I had some cash left over after a sale a couple weeks ago and thought I'd put it to work, so I bought some (MO) Calls thinking the dividend would hold it up-

     

    I paid $.28 for 36s of December and they have more than doubled. Why is it I rarely put the most money where the best return develops?

     

    I just put 30 contracts of (GASL) out for sale for the 27s October.
    Wild spread $3.10-3.70. I'm trying to get $3.40

     

    Just got it filled- for $3.40 Bot at $1.80 net

     

    WT
    11 Sep 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    GASL is a wild trade, but it can be a good one if you pick your timing carefully, WT. Good goin'.
    11 Sep 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    >Trip-

     

    Being in a fatalistic mood today I probably left a lot on the table w/the GASL sale but I will never complain about making a profit.

     

    I would love to develop a trading range for GASL. The chart looks like the business end of a two-man crosscut logging saw. A long time hold could be three hours!
    11 Sep 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I have never held it (or one of its options) for more than 3 or 4 days. It can move with lightning speed, and its unpredictable (even days when most of its underlying "logic" moves one direction, it can move in the opposite direction).
    11 Sep 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    Reminds me of the last time I was at the Saratoga Horse flat track.
    It was the ninth race and the guy in front of me was checking his notes and then raised his head talking to the ticket vendor and in a loud voice said "Give me a thousand to win on General Electric!"

     

    The ticket vendor obviously having been around the wise guy circuit for a while, with a dead-pan face said back to him also loudly, "I'm sorry sir but we're out of GE- Would IBM be OK?"

     

    Even the folks losing badly for the day cracked up.
    11 Sep 2013, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    Re: (GASL)

     

    Bought positions in Puts-

     

    28s and 29s of October. The stock appears to be reaching way outside any logical limit that I can see. This is the area where I often get blown away or make a wad.
    12 Sep 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Caution, WT...

     

    I am getting some quiet word out of Canada that despite the weather brahmans and potentates still backing Global Warming mantra to the hilt, the portents for 2014's winter look very frigid...
    12 Sep 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    >Trip-

     

    Thanks for the warning- My Farmers Almanac has similar comments.

     

    I had the heat on Sunday night when I got home from Milwaukee 37F, and the air going yesterday as the temp hit 94F.
    12 Sep 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Ah those computer delays!

     

    Treasurys pare gains on jobless claims drop
    http://on.mktw.net/13Q...
    12 Sep 2013, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    (LINE): "LINN Energy Announces $525M Acquisition of Permian Basin Properties "

     

    http://bit.ly/18STei8

     

    HardToLove
    12 Sep 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Hello....
    12 Sep 2013, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10319) | Send Message
     
    (LINE) That comes as a complete surprise, Hard. Cramer just said, "This might be the next leg up," or something like that.
    12 Sep 2013, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (957) | Send Message
     
    About the same time, HK announced they sold some properties.
    The new acquisition plus Linn's recent announcement are driving a nice upswing in share prices.
    12 Sep 2013, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Even w/o that next leg, charts suggest at least a push to $29.7x. At that point I expect a small re-trace, if not a bit before, to around 50% of the recent gain, and then next leg up start. I plan to exit my position there if any weakness starts to appear and then will do something on the bullish side when I think the re-trace is near completed.

     

    Am mulling getting long shares in my wife's account - the yield would fit her conservative leanings.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: BTW, has hit about a current resistance pt of ~$28.90, so a pause hit before breaking on through would be normal.

     

    http://bit.ly/18T7asi
    12 Sep 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10319) | Send Message
     
    Hard: LINE's chart is a toughy to digest, given how it's been as news driven as any I have recently looked at.

     

    With BOTH this Permian Basin deal, and if the Berry deal gets approved, I can see the stock dashing up the $32 area, which would lower the annual yield to around 9%, pretty close to where Vanguard Natural Resources is now.

     

    We'll probably see a couple of retraces between now and Sept. 30.

     

    These last couple of days are welcomed...cantaloupe for everyone! (Except Hedgeye)
    12 Sep 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    Maya-

     

    Re: (LINE)

     

    I can happily sign onto that mantra. My January 2015 Call positions at 30 and 35 are smiling. I no longer hold equities.

     

    Glad you are seeing daylight on your stock. There could be a heavy lid on at the $30 area, especially with the gnomes at work.
    12 Sep 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    WWT: speaking of gnomes at work - not much. Short positions essentially unchanged from prior report: 10,162,085.

     

    I expect the next one to show that they were busily digging themselves out of a hole.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Sep 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I agree, HTL. I never put an oar in this water, though I tried a few times. Now I'm just pulling for the home team...

     

    Hmmm, might be time to buy a few calls...
    12 Sep 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10319) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Wind.

     

    Still gutting it within the serpentine tunnel of horror, but with the handsome divvies dropping into my account every month, the faint glow of success is indeed a little closer.

     

    Anyone have a spare rheostat?
    12 Sep 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    >Trip-

     

    Re: (LINE) Calls-

     

    I feel the January 2015s as I have would be a worthwhile consideration.
    In addition I assume they would be classified as Long Term investments for tax purposes if held for over a year, unless there is some kind of option exclusion..
    12 Sep 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    >Maya-

     

    This might be an opportunity to sell Calls on your stock. Right now January 30s are going for around $2.00. That would be all premium.

     

    Just a thought.

     

    If I had the stock I would be writing, but probably the October 19 30s that right now are at $1.20 or so, or even the Sept 21 30s at $.30.

     

    WT
    12 Sep 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10319) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the suggestion, WT.

     

    Though it looks ever more promising that the Berry deal will go through, what if it doesn't? What if this Permian Basin deal merely is a "bridge" to the next deal? We have to remember that this is the first time ever an upstream MLP is trying to buy a private corporation. The SEC may, or may not approve the acquisition. It could just be that LINE already knows this, and that's why LINE went after the out-of-nowhere Permian Basin buy.

     

    And, I'm also betting that Hedgeye right now is digesting today's announcement, and Baron's will once again sponsor his deleterious analysis.

     

    My original (pre-Hedgeye) goal was to add LINE in the $33.xx area, and ride it back up to the 52 week, $42.xx high, and then dump half of my position. This exit plan now comes with an extended version...
    12 Sep 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    Maya: The Permian deal should also help reduce some of the uncertainty about the distribution coverage %. Won't get it all I think, but it'll help.

     

    That should also make the pps higher.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Sep 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10319) | Send Message
     
    Yep, "immediately accretive," were the two words that shined most brightly in today's release.
    12 Sep 2013, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    >MAYA-

     

    You're welcome on the thought.

     

    It appeared to me that you were in for the duration on LINE and not likely to bail out- Correct so far I believe. If that still holds true you could write the Jan 30 for $2.00 and hang tough-

     

    Stock goes up past $30? You either tender the stock and pocket $30 plus the $2.00 opt. commission or buy in the Call which would be less because of the time decay, or, tender and buy the stock again, maybe a different number of shares.

     

    If it doesn't go to or past $30 you have reduced your cost by the premium- $2.00. Do another write and repeat. Do that three times and you've reduced your cost by $6.00 minus of course spread on the Calls and trade costs which are insignificant.

     

    Removes a bit of the pain sometimes.

     

    WT
    12 Sep 2013, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10319) | Send Message
     
    WT: Great strategy! Thanks.

     

    Some related stuff I was writing about earlier:

     

    http://bit.ly/18Uc1cW

     

    The Good: The above link states that with the Permian acquisition, the distributable cash flow per unit could increase by 10 to 15 cents per unit.

     

    The Bad: Lower oil prices could reek havoc on the above assumption, especially if LINE decides to contribute 50% equity.

     

    The Ugly: If the SEC mandates changes to LINE's GAAP accounting methods, then the stock price could get hit hard again

     

    Of note: About 14 minutes after the above link was posted, LINE tanked.
    12 Sep 2013, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Remember that LINE hedges everything, either with puts or swaps. So tanking oil prices would only affect the GAAP accounting value of the derivatives, not the actual cash flow.

     

    As to tanking of pps today, naturally. It was impressive to watch too: from 14:43 it made a beautiful "cascade" down on the one-minute chart. After a 14% run up in one day yesterday, there are bound to be profit takers ... or scared $h*tless shorts trying to get out.

     

    With the RSI, MFI, Williams %R and stochastic in over-sold territory, should be expected I think.

     

    As I mentioned elsewhere, it hit a resistance point and a pause is to be expected.

     

    Before the tanking, buy: sell had about 200K surplus on the buys. After the tanking, very close to even - 2,115K to 2,209K. So the folks buying on the way down today won't be selling until price goes higher. Might even have been shorts covering (more than 10MM short last report) and *they* won't be selling a ton near-term.

     

    My best guess is that shorts precipitated the cascade down with a short-term aggressive small sell run that triggered stops of traders so the shorts could wait near the bottom to cover. The cascade started at 14:47 with a high-volume 1-minute, a low-volume minute and a medium-volume minute. Then volume fell *way* off until 15:33 when it began to climb again. This was when pps was in the $27.97-$28.06 range, initially, and it looks like more stops were triggered that got us as low as $27.80.

     

    With 12K call contracts and 4K put contracts traded, could have been effects of those trading too.

     

    Anyway, let's hope the shorts that wanted to cover got covered and the momo traders are reloaded and ready to go again.

     

    Last thought: Tuesday we closed at $24.74, so today's close just below $28 is not exactly a tragedy.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    12 Sep 2013, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10319) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, HTL. Nice insights.

     

    I do recall reading somewhere that LINE no longer uses put contracts. Maybe because of the SEC informal investigation, Barron's, Hedgeye, etc?

     

    Question: Can Linn Energy employ hedge contracts to reserves of which they have yet to own? In other words, how can LINE use any sort of hedging strategy before they make an acquisition. Can they do this prior to an acquisition? Is that legal? If so, I would love to get my hands on that data.
    12 Sep 2013, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4181) | Send Message
     
    IINM, a hedge contract in and of itself is no different than any other derivative contract. Why would it be illegal for LINE to sell "uncovered" oil and/or gas futures options?
    12 Sep 2013, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10319) | Send Message
     
    Using GAAP, how would those uncovered futures options be accounted for? How can a LLC speculate with something it doesn't yet own? Some sort of multi-agency, pre-prepared agreement?

     

    And what the heck does, "IIMN," mean?
    13 Sep 2013, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    Maya: (LINE) did switch to swaps for hedging because of the brouhaha over the puts accounting.

     

    As to hedging before production, I don't have any direct knowledge. But AFAIK, all the derivatives have provisions for inability to deliver that allow cash settlements. So I don't see any reason the equivalent of puts/calls couldn't be used regardless of backing production. I alos suspect they are not tied to a specific resource - just xxx million cf of NG or bbls equivalent oil or some such.

     

    However, I don't see why Linn would go to the expense of hedging in advance of acquisition *unless* they saw the current pricing as extremely favorable and likely to deteriorate before the deals closed and the production began. IOW, I *expect* that their maximum hedge position at any time to be no more than production capacity in a normal pricing environment. Any more than that is additional expense.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    13 Sep 2013, 07:04 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I would think that entry into the appropriate hedge device occurs simultaneous with closing the acquisition. This would not be unusual, or really different from acquiring insurance when a new car is purchased, effective upon the closing of the loan.
    13 Sep 2013, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4181) | Send Message
     
    "And what the heck does, "IIMN," mean? "

     

    :-) Means I am old and prone to transposition of letters. Should have read 'IINM' as short for 'if i am not mistaken'.
    13 Sep 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Assad Lays Down His Conditions: "Deal Depends On US Stopping Aid To Terrorists" ...
    12 Sep 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    "Deal Depends On US Stopping Aid To Terrorists"

     

    I assume he means the insurgents-

     

    That sounds like a non-starter to me.
    12 Sep 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    WWT: I think he means the Fed and Congress - they've been scaring the crap out of us longer than anybody else! Why? Because we can't send our military to correct their errors with "regime change"! :-((

     

    HardToLove
    12 Sep 2013, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    LOL!

     

    If that's what he means, he's absolutely correct!
    12 Sep 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    John Cleese on Syria-

     

    "The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent events in Syria and have therefore raised their security level from "Miffed" to "Peeved." Soon, though, security levels may be raised yet again to "Irritated" or even "A Bit Cross." The English have not been "A Bit Cross" since the blitz in 1940 when tea supplies nearly ran out. Terrorists have been re-categorized from "Tiresome" to "A Bloody Nuisance." The last time the British issued a "Bloody Nuisance" warning level was in 1588, when threatened by the Spanish Armada.

     

    The Scots have raised their threat level from "P***d Off" to "Let's get the Bastards." They don't have any other levels. This is the reason they have been used on the front line of the British army for the last 300 years.

     

    The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its terror alert level from "Run" to "Hide." The only two higher levels in France are "Collaborate" and "Surrender." The rise was precipitated by a recent fire that destroyed France 's white flag factory, effectively paralysing the country's military capability.

     

    Italy has increased the alert level from "Shout Loudly and Excitedly" to "Elaborate Military Posturing." Two more levels remain: "Ineffective Combat Operations" and "Change Sides."

     

    The Germans have increased their alert state from "Disdainful Arrogance" to "Dress in Uniform and Sing Marching Songs." They also have two higher levels: "Invade a Neighbour" and "Lose."

     

    Belgians, on the other hand, are all on holiday as usual; the only threat they are worried about is NATO pulling out of Brussels.

     

    The Spanish are all excited to see their new submarines ready to deploy. These beautifully designed subs have glass bottoms so the new Spanish navy can get a really good look at the old Spanish navy.

     

    Australia, meanwhile, has raised its security level from "No worries" to "She'll be alright, Mate." Two more escalation levels remain: "Crikey! I think we'll need to cancel the barbie this weekend!" and "The barbie is cancelled." So far no situation has ever warranted use of the last final escalation level.

     

    -- John Cleese - British writer, actor and tall person.
    12 Sep 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Insightful...

     

    Say, does John also do investment analysis? That might be quite valuable.
    12 Sep 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10319) | Send Message
     
    Wind: Hilarious!
    12 Sep 2013, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    WWT: Just beautiful!

     

    HardToLove
    12 Sep 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Gotta love it!
    12 Sep 2013, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Today's markets have a number of quiet (almost silent) areas, to the point where we have been wondering if the exchanges themselves were not broken...

     

    And this reminds me of a story, one that might shed some light upon what is happening.

     

    Anyone who has ever seriously hunted game in the forest, and who is perceptive, will know what happens when the winds shift, and suddenly your scent is being pushed rapidly down wind toward the prey. The forest grows suddenly silent, as the animals realize a major predator is nearby.

     

    And perhaps that is what happened today in the markets.

     

    I will not be shocked to learn that the quantmonkies got a whiff of some new changes to how they are treated by the regulators, or a surge of new data that baffled their carefully crafted computer models. Accustomed to the incessant roar of these mammoth churning operations, and their 60-70% volume consumption, we are shocked by the stillness and the silence which occurs when they are absent.
    12 Sep 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    TB: to cite an old phrase, "The silence is deafening".

     

    HardToLove
    12 Sep 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    >Trip-

     

    Funny you wrote that post. I was working a trade this morning and was thinking what were the issues that might disrupt the markets- I thought everything was unusually calm. I'm thinking vacations? Holidays? Fiscal cliffs? Scandals? nothing going on? Huh?

     

    I turned on CNBC just to be sure we weren't in a mess someplace and then thought- It's really quiet.

     

    Oh oh................
    12 Sep 2013, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    For anyone interested in a couple of positions I have taken in 2 biometrics publicly traded companies (one in Norway and one in Sweden) here are more details: http://seekingalpha.co...
    mj
    13 Sep 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    >MJ-

     

    Thanks!

     

    Since Apple just came out with their newest iPhone having fingerprint recognition the Scandinavians will probably be popular with the competition.

     

    WT
    13 Sep 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    My pleasure WT. The problem with biometrics in the past is that it never worked very well on laptops so folks would give up and just turn off the feature. With Apple's iPhone ability to get functionality right most of the time -- I do believe demand in this space for mobile phones and other technology will grow in this decade.
    mj
    13 Sep 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Update - I closed my position in Precise Biometrics today after learning its CEO just dumped all of his share holdings and now only holds warrants. Still long Idex. http://bit.ly/166CJTp
    If it's not good enough for the CEO its not good enough for me :-))
    mj
    17 Sep 2013, 05:57 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    >MJ-

     

    Re: IDEX-

     

    I did a little research on IDEX and found the chart interesting-
    What do you suppose started the ball rolling at the end of last year? Could they have possibly been an Apple vendor candidate for the print technology back then?

     

    It certainly wasn't earnings-

     

    The stock is up four-fold since then. Wow!

     

    WT

     

    Edit-
    I see it now- An agreement with a Chinese company on the fingerprint technology- December 2012.
    18 Sep 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    WT the big milestones which have been driving Idex share demand/price include:

     

    1) They are only one of three publicly held companies with US registered proprietary fingerprint sensing patents for mobile phones (Apple through their acquisition of AuthenTec; Precise Biometrics which I recently liquidated for reasons stated above, and then third is Idex -- in which I have a long position.

     

    2) They have a new CEO with good credibility in the technology space.

     

    3) In December they closed a contract with a global mobile phone manufacturer out of Hong Kong -- WWTT who is an OEM assembler.
    "Hong Kong-based WWTT is a contract designer and assembler of automation products, modules and components ... and employs approximately 2,400 workers."

     

    Then this month World Wide Touch Technology (Holdings) Ltd. took a 2.2% stake in Idex: http://bit.ly/1eqqof7

     

    4) And perhaps most importantly Idex has a cross patent validation agreement with Apple who recognizes unique biometrics patents belonging to Idex and which do not overlap with any of Apple/AuthenTec's patents. Their Investor Relations group points out that "there is no money involved in this so-called validation of patents. We do not get revenue from each others' technology. This is more like a free card from being sued by Apple. Apple has the largest patent portfolio in the field today, and they've shown that they are willing to use his strength to protect themselves. Cross license gives us access to use key patents they sit on, and they can use parts of our patents." http://bit.ly/1eqqmUv

     

    BTW -- that last link is in Norwegian from Hegnar Online which I have found to be a Bloomberg type site for Norwegian firms. Regular Google searches would never have provided me with all of this information, although Google Translate does save the day for me!

     

    Although Idex offers fingerprint sensors and biometric software for identity cards, banking cards, smart cards and other security solutions -- the mobile phone opportunity looms large especially after the Apple launch. Their CEO states in the interview I linked above: “We expect smartphones to adopt fingerprint very soon, and we expect to deploy our technology and achieve revenue in 2014,” said Mardia in the interview. “Apple has 14 per cent market share of smartphones, and our focus is to deliver to the remaining 86 percent,” he continued, and added “It is positive that Apple paves the way for biometric products. The uniqueness of the individual’s fingerprint is secure, and the technology is user-friendly.”

     

    This is a spec stock with little in revenues -- so complete due diligence is in order. But, I am long Idex and even like the price action thus far during recent FOMC inspired global volatility.

     

    mj
    18 Sep 2013, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    New article on REE and Molycorp.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    WT
    13 Sep 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    REE (the miner) vs REE (common shorthand for "rare earth elements") first must be noted as not synonyms.

     

    REE is a wannabe producer, while MCP IS a producer. Comparing their price action (MCP up 7% in the same period when REE is down 9%) really does not signify. It would be like comparing the price action for Newmont with some small explorer stage gold miner. The thesis lacks logic.

     

    Also, generally speaking, the advantage of being already IN the market with production capacity vs still trying to get off the launch pad cannot be dismissed.

     

    I am not a fan in general of REE (the company) and would look elsewhere in the RE sector for an investment. There are a number of comparable explorer and development stage rare earth companies that I would pick over REE, not least of because I see the recent moves made by the EPA against miners and processors of all kinds as dramatically inimical toward American producers.
    13 Sep 2013, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    Engaging interview with George Will by Nick Gillespie and Matt Welch of Reason Magazine about how his thinking has evolved more towards the libertarian view over the years.

     

    http://bit.ly/17W1vU9
    13 Sep 2013, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I have had the privilege of meeting some extraordinary minds in my day, and though I have never had the privilege with George Will, I consider him among them.

     

    I have always thought that intelligence and ability is more a function of the continuing ability to collect, collate and utilize information than any static store of knowledge or even accomplishment. George has what is obviously still very much a growing intellect...

     

    So of course he is getting more Libertarian as time passes. Its a sign of mental growth, LOL.

     

    Churchill's famous quote about "If you're young and not a Liberal, you have no heart, and if you're an adult and not a Conservative, you have no brain" (from memory, so if I get it off, forgive me) might have a third element...

     

    Hence: "If you're young and not a Liberal, you have no heart - if you're an adult and not a Conservative, you have no brain - and if you're old, and not a Libertarian, you have learned nothing from the other two phases of your life."
    13 Sep 2013, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    Folly educates.

     

    If one is conducive to education.
    13 Sep 2013, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    Great piece. It's a shame that truly thoughtful folks such as George Will are not really predominate in our culture or politics ATM.

     

    I noted his approval of the TEA party in conjunction with his assertion that we are always looking back (to our constitution).

     

    That looking back assertion is the only thing about which I have my doubts (for now?). Maybe it's just a dominate cynicism on my part though. I have a hard time seeing the evidence, other than the actions by a few states thus far (which may ultimately fail or succeed in "reestablishing" Federalist principals in the "central government" of our nation), that the mores of both the populace and the politicians, more or less "en masse", desire a weaning from the central government teat.

     

    My fear is that long after I've gone this will be accomplished as poverty and inequality of opportunity for the 99% give rise to upheaval as an attempt to rectify the situation. And, if history is a guide, the result of that will not be very satisfactory.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    14 Sep 2013, 07:08 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2806) | Send Message
     
    I guess I got lucky
    My first election I voted with my parents. I was fresh out of high school and knew I didn't know what was going on.
    Before the next election I found out what a libertarian was and ran into an hour program that interviewed the Libertarian candidate. His answers were clear and obvious. (IMO)
    While I'm not particularly interested in the political theory. I've occasionally gone back and checked on Ron Paul over the years.
    Which of his major votes where he stuck out as contrary turned out to be wrong in the long run. Also did I agree with him? I find that when I disagreed it was because he knew more than me.
    I've voted for an independent or two but that's about it. (if I had the choice of a Libertarian.)
    14 Sep 2013, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Check out the storm track for tropical storm Man-Yi over Japan...
    http://tinyurl.com/oj4...
    15 Sep 2013, 05:34 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    >FPA-

     

    Looks like the surf's up in Tokyo-
    15 Sep 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    and Fukushima... I hope to have my radiation testing station running by the end of the year.
    15 Sep 2013, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    Looks like Man-Yi's now a Tropical Storm with 55 MPH winds- Gusts to 65 and moving away rapidly.

     

    Apparently little effect on Fukushima- This time.......
    16 Sep 2013, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4181) | Send Message
     
    Chess move or real deal? Wonderful news if real deal.

     

    http://fxn.ws/1dgV0N3
    15 Sep 2013, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    How the game is played:

     

    http://bit.ly/14UbydN
    15 Sep 2013, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    The WH wants their best girl in that slot. Larry was run in as a distraction and to make her selection "look good". It is thought that conservatives will accept her out of relief that she is NOT Summers. This strategy might even work, though it is slowing down the process just enough to leave open the danger that the Bernank will run his final tapering action right through the gaping hole left by the monkeyfied employment statistics...
    16 Sep 2013, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10319) | Send Message
     
    Had pals over on Sunday afternoon to watch some NFL games. I made rack of lamb, Caesar salad, garlic roasted mashed potatoes, snacks, chocolates, etc.

     

    To have my pal, a James A. Beard award winning chef, and owner of perhaps the most successful and highly rated restaurant in these fair parts, stick his head into the kitchen and ask, "Is there anything I can do?" is...well...I'm at a loss to come up with the perfect adjective.

     

    Sure, I answered. Of course, we got into a debate as to how best to cook rack of lamb.

     

    I feel the same way hanging out here with you guys, and am equally at a loss to describe how much great fun, as well as how much I learn from the Quick Chatters, both from new and as well as longer-timed commenters.

     

    I feel equally lucky to have our leader tripleblack's art fully framed and displayed around my home. In three different rooms, trip's art is hanging in the most conspicuous places; his highly detailed and whimsically precise drawing of the Mistrel is suspended above my study fireplace, a spot alighting it warm. The Savanna Lighthouse sits beneath another spot light, in the corner of my great room. I don't know how trip did it, but as the day passes from bright light to sunset and beyond into the crepuscular, the waves seem to move, and the fog seems to roll in. Mesmerizing.

     

    On a opposite wall in my study is the fantastic print of trip's Titmouse Chapel. Truly a complex drawing that magically summons you get in there, look closer, and marvel at the intricacies of this gleeful piece.

     

    Downstairs, in the atrium, I have three narrow windows that shoot up about nine feet, and between them, toward the bottom, at eye height, are three of trip's tiny cubist drawings, so finite and yet different, and each of the three has individually been chosen by guests to my home as their favorite of the series.

     

    Upstairs, in a balcony-hallway, beside an inside-lit curio cabinet, hangs two other larger cubist prints. As the evening rolls in, from downstairs, when the curio light comes on, one can't help but crane one's neck to look up the pastel-colored landscape abstract, and again, as day turns into night, trip's Day Into Night cubist print, works really well above the Savanna Lighthouse Seascape.

     

    Trip's art provides a constant reminder to the great friends and colleagues I feel so blessed to hang with here on Seeking Alpha.

     

    As people arrived sporadically throughout Sunday afternoon, I decided to shift dinner to a later hour, such that we all could eat and watch football together. Luck would have it that a lightning delay during the Seatlle-San Francisco tilt, allowed me to commence cooking, without missing a play.

     

    One of my quite financially poor friends took me aside and asked how long dinner was go to be, and I sensed he arrived without having eaten a thing all day, and he was quite correct that my snacks were all empty of good calories. I quickly made him a PB&J sandwich, and went back into the great room while things cooked. My friend seemed fine.

     

    Five minutes later I sensed something was wrong, got up and went back into the kitchen to find my friend, head tilted, eyes drooping, mouth agape.

     

    "Stop everything, guys, we may have a medical emergency," I said earnestly.

     

    We all dashed back into the kitchen, trying to ascertain the situation and decide what to do. I got some water, the chef said, "This is my game, I know what he needs." He dove into the refrigerator...looking around. I dashed off to my bathroom, to retrieve my mother's finger pulse and oxygen meter.

     

    My friend's forehead was sweating profusely, but cool to the touch, and yet his back felt like 106 degrees. I gabbed his forearm and could feel his quite sinewy muscles had gone flaccid. The chef grabbed slices of American cheese, and induced my ailing friend to nibble, while I stood, hand on the land line phone, ready to dial 911.

     

    My friend continued to slowly spiral downward, but was now able to utter a few slurred words as the protein kicked in. In maybe two more minutes he rallied some, but his eyes were still open yet vacuous, unable to lock with mine. But the protein seemed to be working.

     

    The chef started broiling up a horseradish, American cheese sandwich, as I continued to talk, and monitor my friend's symptoms, as I had to do so often with my mother during her last days.

     

    That experience proved fruitful, and finally, finally, my friend rallied enough that I could get him down the hallway and into my bed as I said, "Welcome to the world of sleeping on foam." I made him slowly drink a cup of water before he turned in.

     

    Meanwhile, the whole lamb cooking process was stopped and then restarted. And pretty much exactly when my chef pal was done carving up the racks, while I was mashing the potatoes and fluffing dressing into the Caesar Salad, my ailing friend so timely popped into the kitchen.

     

    We all sat down and enjoyed a fine meal. But my friend didn't eat very much, still a little woozy. I followed him off to an upstairs bedroom, and two hours or so later he came back down the steps, and gorged himself.

     

    I asked my friend if he was a diabetic, and he said no. But I have a feeling he is in denial, and likely unable to afford the costs of testing and medication.

     

    This story ends with the idea that here we share. Trip's art will always be a reminder of that. And because of past issues that some of us have endured and related here, I have learned, and maybe, just maybe, a little of what I learned here helped save a pal of mine's life.
    16 Sep 2013, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Appreciate your sharing this, Maya, and special appreciation to TB and FPA for keeping such good blog posts active. The chest-thumping and somewhat narrow interests on StockTalks (although several folks are worth following over there) keep urging me back to these concentrators. Depth and breadth on the "good, the bad, and the ugly" -- often helps my thinking land in a better place.
    Thanks,
    mj
    17 Sep 2013, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Maya. I'm glad your friend is OK.
    18 Sep 2013, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Dire warnings of the "system" buckling under are frequent with the likes of Marc Faber and Jim Rogers, but now William White (former Chief Economist of the Bank for International Settlements -- who flagged the wild behaviour in the debt markets before the 2008 crisis) points out "this looks to me like 2007 all over again, but even worse." He points out the key signs:

     

    1) All the previous imbalances are still there

     

    2) Total public and private debt levels are 30 per cent higher as a share of GDP in the advanced economies than they were [last time]

     

    3) We have added a whole new problem with bubbles in emerging markets that are ending in a boom-bust cycle

     

    4) The issuance of subordinated debt -- which leaves lenders exposed to bigger losses if things go wrong -- has jumped more than threefold over the last year to $US52 billion ($55.87 billion) in Europe, and jumped tenfold to $US22 billion in the US

     

    5) The share of "leveraged loans" used by the weakest borrowers in the syndicated loan market has jumped to an all-time high of 45 per cent, ten percentage points higher than the pre-crisis peak in 2007-2008.

     

    6) Interbank credit to emerging markets has reached the "highest level on record" while the value of bonds issued in off-shore centres by private companies from China, Brazil and other developing nations exceeds total issuance by firms from rich economies for the first time, underscoring the sheer size of the debt build-up in Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Mid-East.

     

    http://bit.ly/15zQoQB

     

    In other words, the illusion of global market liquidity is alive and well. IMHO good reason to keep cash levels high while enjoying the short-term market gyrations.

     

    mj
    17 Sep 2013, 07:28 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    For several years now we have been seeing (and noting here) the clear signs that our leaders learned nothing from the Great Recession and its global financial meltdown. This observation is not limited to the USA or a specific political persuasion, by the bye...

     

    As an illustrator I often find myself thinking in metaphoric visions, the pure stock in trade of my profession. In this case, I see a story of our leaders making incredible blunders, and then addressing the catastrophe which results with extraordinary measures, which I see as emergency room care meant to sustain the stricken patient's life and stabilize them for a brief period of time. This is all well and good, but what happened afterward is truly bizarre, for nothing was ever done to promote recovery in the patient, as he was perpetually entombed in the economic equivalent of a sense deprivation chamber for years on end.

     

    Now we are seeing the original wounds festering, as the lack of care becomes a problem, and a repetition of the same economic violence which so wounded the patient in the first place is repeated by the morons leading us.

     

    The news that the same telltale signs are rising up once again to attack us is horrible news, but it is not NEW news. It has long been a case of wondering WHEN this would happen, not "if".

     

    Speaking less allegorically, I think its still difficult to nail down "when". My personal idea is that things will be held together with the same tape and glue used since 2008, with desperate political measures already put in train to maintain the masquerade until the 2014 elections (now just over a year away). I think the political class will be successful, short term, with these efforts, but that things will be prone to break down rapidly when they ultimately lose their grip on the myriad of bandaids holding the economy together.

     

    I'm thinking we have about a year of this yet to run...
    17 Sep 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    And just what is to be expected. We, the people, have assigned the same people that brought on the 2008 crisis the task of fixing it. Businesses that should have failed didn't so the same people, with the same mindset and same social networks, are still in charge and control the finances. The rules of the game have been jumbled, made opaque and remain basically the same but more slanted toward helping those that crashed the system in the first place.

     

    We've made the decision that we just can't live without our sainted "Smartest Guys in the Room" and they must be protected at all costs. They don't disagree with that. All-in-all I'm feeling lucky that I've still got something to eat and a place to live. I wonder what miraculous things round 2 will bring my way.
    17 Sep 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2806) | Send Message
     
    MJ
    6) Interbank credit to emerging markets has reached the "highest level on record"

     

    I listened to an interview of a business man in Brazil last night.
    (He owns a few businesses including 5 bus lines)

     

    Two take-aways.
    He is not optimistic for the future.
    The middle class is awash in easy credit and going in over their heads with it.
    Which is why the economy looks so good ATM.
    17 Sep 2013, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Indeed froggey -- and so many other countries are sharing this "illusion of liquidity" with Brazil. The Central Banks in concert can keep this going for a while longer, but I am having trouble coming up with a potentially good ending to the story.
    mj
    17 Sep 2013, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    >MJ-

     

    Thanks for the summary you provided on world credit. Sure is a scary reminder of the recent past.

     

    Five years didn't change things all that much- Unhindered greed continues unabated with the assurance that the Haves will be there to bail out the profligates when they need some rescue money- They're totally addicted now..

     

    I'm not surprised at the increasing lending levels in the emerging market arena. Most of those countries have balance sheets the G20 would die for. I think that EM debt may be one of the few investment capital opportunities out there along with most Scandinavian sovereign debt. Mexico, Peru and Chile also deserve a look.

     

    IMHO

     

    WT
    17 Sep 2013, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Its important to parse what the "Haves" actually HAVE, WT. They do NOT have the money to perform their bailouts, oh no, but they have something much better...

     

    They have the power to do so. In the end analysis, they literally have the GUNS to do so, since they will extract from citizens the resources they need at the point of a gun.

     

    And in so far as these havens of economic activity may present an investment opportunity, which analysis I do not really disagree with, its important to watch out for the same miscreants to use those same guns (now elevated to hegemonic nation state level) to get their way when it comes to their smaller (not-so) sovereign brethren.

     

    A bellwether to watch will be the attempts being made by Brazil and particularly India to protect their balance of payments and their currencies. These two are perhaps the very largest of the EM (and probably really don't belong in that classification any longer) BUT are likely to run afoul of the titanic forces lurking beneath the currency exchange wars at an early stage (I think sometime over the next 6-9 months).

     

    There are many ways to use force to accomplish an agenda.
    17 Sep 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10319) | Send Message
     
    Effective September 20, 2013: Gold mining stocks around the world have reacted to the unveiling of the revamped NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, underlying index to the giant Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX).

     

    Non-US listed companies will now become part of the ETF, as well as smaller miners with a market cap of $750M, supposedly to help the Exchange Traded Fund to better represent the "universe" of mining companies.

     

    The article below suggests that miners included could get a 5% pop, while excluded miners may suffer a 14% hit.

     

    http://bit.ly/1a0WDwm
    17 Sep 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Given what is going on with the Federal Govt. and the EPA, I would expect them to drop as many small American miners as possible, and switch to viable, er, "foreign" miners. This opportunity comes just in time to allow them to dodge an EPA bullet.

     

    Given that the "universe" of mining companies will soon see the exit of most of the American explorers and juniors, I guess one could say that was a "better" representation.
    17 Sep 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Tapering isn’t tightening?

     

    Below is a Soc Gen trader's perspective on today's likely tapering announcement. I tend to agree that if a small tapering is announced -- it will likely have a "ho hum" market effect since monetary policy will still be riding a strong global liquidity train.

     

    "Tapering isn’t tightening, the Fed has pointed out time and again. It's also the first-hand experience by Societe Generale's Kit Juckes:

     

    I have visited Kansas, Chicago, Boston, New York, Sacramento and San Francisco on this trip. San Francisco wins the crane count. Everywhere, there is doubt, about whether the US economic recovery is strong enough to cope with tightening.

     

    Which just highlights the main point – that tapering isn’t tightening. On the other side of the tapering announcement, US monetary policy will still be incredibly easy, asset-friendly, and not very dollar friendly."
    http://bit.ly/16l9GG0

     

    Actually the "not very US dollar friendly" part of the comment is where my long term attention is focused. Higher market valuations/share prices now will likely affect general USD purchasing power longer term. But hey -- short term as Pit Bull would say "Don't stop the party." At my end, I will continue my slow long term diversification of USD assets.
    mj

     

    P.S. In the next 10 years the CBO warns US risks fiscal crisis. "Congress would need to pass $4T of savings or tax increases over the next ten years to lower debt from 73% of GDP to below its 40-year average of 38%." http://bloom.bg/1eouEMd
    18 Sep 2013, 07:22 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    >MJ-
    Thanks for the comments on "tapering."

     

    "Congress would need to pass $4T of savings or tax increases over the next ten years to lower debt from 73% of GDP to below its 40-year average of 38%."

     

    I agree that USD purchasing power will diminish steadily as time goes on.

     

    With this is a partial answer to the debt/GDP dilemma. As has always been practice inflation means paying back that debt (or not) with cheapened dollars. The same cheapening that diminishes the value of savers assets and the life style of those on fixed incomes will reduce in actuality the national debt.

     

    Inflation is the resource tool of the spenders of our tax dollars. Tricky Dick knew that back in the 70s when we came off the Gold standard.

     

    WT
    18 Sep 2013, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Absolutely right WT -- inflation will be the play of last resort. When that day comes - let's hope folks have diversified their "stores of value" beyond the USD. Although I read that 73% of Americans have no clue what Quantitative Easing is -- so that may be wishful thinking. More sad than funny http://on.mktw.net/1f6...
    mj
    18 Sep 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    Excellent video:
    http://bit.ly/1a42iSA
    18 Sep 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10319) | Send Message
     
    You're right, OG, that was an excellent video.
    18 Sep 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (3239) | Send Message
     
    >OG-

     

    Indeed a good vid.

     

    Sums up what we've all been commenting here.
    18 Sep 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Thanks OG,

     

    That is a must see video. The time to prepare for a sell-off of USDs is now when we have a relatively strong dollar -- NOT when everyone is jumping on that thought train.

     

    Mr. Goodman in the video has it right IMO and provides supporting factoids for his POV. Here is one more indicator I watch which leads in the same direction:

     

    "Since December 2008, China started to sign bilateral RMB-denominated BSAs [Bilateral Swap Agreements] as part of its plan to internationalize the RMB. The first one was signed with South Korea, amounting to RMB 200 billion with a maturity of 3 years. Prior to its expiration in 2011, China and South Korea renewed it and doubled the size to RMB 400 billion. As of end-March 2013, there are in total 19 countries/regions which have signed RMB-denominated BSAs with China. The latest one has been with Brazil, which was announced in late March ... these BSAs are denominated and measured in RMB as the counterparty’s currency, signaling their independence from the USD. As for their objective, in its annual report of 2012, the PBoC revealed that these BSAs are signed as a measure to promote the usage of RMB in cross-border trade and investment transactions. In the same vein, other official counterparts have expressed a similar view regarding the signing of their BSAs with China."

     

    And for skeptics who think these BSA's will go nowhere as long as China's capital account is largely closed consider that: "RMB BSAs do not necessarily have to be used fully to promote the RMB internationally. This is specially the case for those BSAs offerred to off-shore RMB financial centers as a way to provide the RMB liquidity in case there was a shortage of it."
    http://bit.ly/153v0ok

     

    As I said earlier -- we all have investing options today to protect our asset values -- which may or may not be as attractive in 2 years or 12 years. Interested in your thoughts.
    mj
    18 Sep 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    For a number of reasons (including those discussed under this topic) I have abandoned American investments. Right now I have virtually nothing as a medium or long term investment in the US. The places where I am invested? Australia, Canada, Mexico, Chile, and short cycle trades of various kinds.

     

    I have been very blunt in my opinions about things like the current "Phantom Menace" activism at the American EPA (targeting potential mining projects, as well as pre-production, pre-permitted projects of all kinds). This prompted me to abruptly truncate all investments in anything to do with mining and energy plays of this kind in the US.

     

    At this point, ANY American company must run a logical gauntlet for me to consider them as a sound investment, and I cannot frankly waste much time (given the situation) even considering them.
    18 Sep 2013, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Understand completely TB. On a day like today the USD risk becomes really obvious. In 5 minutes right after the FOMC announcement my foreign currency/share holdings in various forms popped 2.5% -- just because the USD value dropped. Think about the potential impact over a period of time of continued easing and deficit spending!
    18 Sep 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like