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  • QuickChat #205, October 5, 2011 149 comments
    Oct 5, 2011 10:38 AM

    "Fire Downbelow" by stan bruns, 2011.
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Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

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  • QuickChat
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Comment from prior QC by FPA:

     

    Love your Avatar OG. A true heroine.
    5 Oct 2011, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    September Non-Manufacturing ISM printed at 53, a drop from 53.3. New orders are up 3.7%, Backlog of orders up 5%, Business activity/ production up 1.5%. That's looking good....

     

    The big 'but' is:

     

    Employment is down 2.9% to 48.7.

     

    Contraction in employment means contraction in spending. Contraction in employment should put downward pressure on prices [profits/earnings]. And indeed prices are down 2.3%.
    This also resonates with the holiday season retail projections.
    http://tinyurl.com/3nl...

     

    So far, the data suggests a relatively flat holiday sales season.
    5 Oct 2011, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    Agree on employment. Also, the newer jobs being created don't pay anywhere near what the private an State/Gov's being lost payed.

     

    Posted earlier JOLTS has shown this for 5 months.

     

    Hope devil may care for hoilidays and they all use some c/c s.. Banks need some interest paying debt. gb
    5 Oct 2011, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    (SPX): Just moved above a potential resistance from June and August of 2010 around the $1130 area.

     

    I'm looking for near-term resistance to exhibit in the $1135-$1140 range.

     

    Early volume seems to portend a very low volume day. So I do expect that if this price range is achieved, we would see at least weakening of price, if not a move down beginning.

     

    And it is Wednesday, which FPA mentioned in his instablog.

     

    Meanwhile, back in the virtual world of MSM, they are gushing about yesterday's big turnaround and are about to inform us how to trade it for profit.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2011, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    The HY bond market isn't gushing about anything, they are still deteriorating. I'm guessing it's more believable than this rally
    5 Oct 2011, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Given that a little over 43% of my brokerage account is in corporate bonds, I need to learn a little more about them.

     

    This website I favorited a few days ago. Thought I'd pass along the link to you kind folks:

     

    http://bit.ly/oMerYw
    5 Oct 2011, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (7516) | Send Message
     
    Maya - Thanks for the link. It appears that even though rates are historically low the curve is still rather steep compared to more normal times. Of course, the chart data only goes back to 2006. I can't really say that there has been anything normal about any date since then to now. Bubble, bust, then the recovery that is barely happening. But, anyway, the curve is steeper now than before the bubble burst, whatever that means.
    5 Oct 2011, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Mark: YW. I'm trying to find what the short term yield is to the long term. Along with Doc Cop, if the short term yield is higher than the long term, then that's two big indicators indicating a recession is eminent (though I believe we never exited the first one).

     

    I still think sometime later this month, or maybe early in November, the stock market will go bull within the bear. Yields are already far better than treasuries, and will continue to improve in valuation as the market tumbles.

     

    If, per chance, we see a lot of wins coming this quarterly reporting season, that will say a lot. I think either the Greek issue can will be further kicked, which will make the market rise, or, it will be solved, which will make the market surge faster.

     

    But then...

     

    Greek default seems to be coming. I think Greek default is more or less already baked into the cake. It's the question of the other PIIGS, that domino effect that still gives me the jitters.
    5 Oct 2011, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (7516) | Send Message
     
    I'm with ya, buddy. But I don't think the Greece can gets kicked down the road. I read last night that the EU has decided not to pour any more money into the Greece trap. Instead the country finance ministers are focusing on shoring up the banks to withstand the blow of a big write-down of Greek sovereign debt. Greece will be shown the Euro exit door (or so it sounds) and they can inflate their Dracma as much as they need. The Greek minister of finance has estimated that they will run out of funds sometime during the 2nd week of November. If anything much happens, it probably won't last long, IMHO, since, as you pointed out, most of the default has already been baked into the market cake. The one fly in the ointment is not knowing what will happen to the sovereign debt rates for Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. I am really most interested in Italy right now. Spain is big also, buy Italy has the worse demographics. Their ability to maintain anything close to the status quo is almost nil, IMO. They are also the largest of the PIIGS. I think Italy is the key in all of this mess. If the vigilantes go after Italy, it's all over and the dominos begin to fall.
    5 Oct 2011, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2754) | Send Message
     
    >K2O2: A rhetorical question I have; how can the EU afford to bail out Greece, even if they can afford to bail out Greece? By that I mean that if Greece gets bailed because of the EU fear of financial disaster, then the other PIIGS can be assured that THEY have a big club to use to force their bailout. But that's just not possible without inflating the Euro beyond imagining.
    So it has to be a haircut for the bond holders and then a backroom deal to shore up the worst run banks. Does all this sound vaguely familiar? Does the EU get to export trillions of euro debt like the US banks did with USdollar debt?

     

    I'm glad most of my stock holdings pay a solid dividend. I hope things improve before crashing US company profits force down those dividends!!
    October is going to be "interesting", November more so :-(
    5 Oct 2011, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (7516) | Send Message
     
    Siliconhillbilly,

     

    I agree with you. The EU doesn't seem to have the ability or the desire to continue the attempt to bail out Greece. My comment states that I heard that they have given up and have decided to let them default. That means Greece will be kicked out of the EU so they can no longer be a drag on the Euro. But the banks own Greek debt and will have to be shored up. That seems to be the new plan from what I am reading.
    5 Oct 2011, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Beaten up coal sector on fire today...winter approaches:

     

    http://bit.ly/nRypTt
    5 Oct 2011, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    (SPXU) Entered 2 small positions @ $20.31 & $20.30.

     

    Looking to exit later today or Friday, depending on what the charts show me.

     

    This was done as SPX neared $1135 for the third time today - hasn't hit it yet and may not.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2011, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    (SPX), (SPXU) and related: Well I focused too much on the resistance and not enough on the rising trend today. But I did not hit my $1 loss and I'm looking at several things that say this may still be a good risk/reward combination.

     

    First, yesterday's recovery on high volume was not supported by follow-on volume today. As of now, 17:04, the day's SPY volume, 284.2M, is still below the 25-day average of 303.75M, and sitting just around recent volumes, excluding Tuesdays.

     

    Today finished above the $1135/$1140 resistance area and it's not uncommon for a single-day spike above a resistance to be followed by a retrace to below the resistance.

     

    Next, as FPA noted, we seldom get more than ~3 days in a row up, so assuming tomorrow's an up day, that might complete this run.

     

    If it does go up tomorrow, there's several potential resistance points that come into play.

     

    The $1155 high of 9/30/2010, a short-term falling trend resistance @ ~$1165, the $1170-$1175 11/16-11/30/2010 and $1200 range which are the tops during that week.

     

    When "Fearful Friday" comes, I'm guessing that the traders want to go home "flat" again, so if recent behavior repeats, we would see SPX down big Friday (that would also match FPA's study results IIRC).

     

    If SPX just pulls back to the recent support level of $1120 or so, I would be up ~$0.50. If it goes to the recent $1102 low, I get up ~$1.45, and if it goes back to the low of Tuesday (which I do *not* expect), ~$1075, I'm up ~$2.70.

     

    Since these are experimental learning plays, and very small positions, I intend to set my stop-loss at $2 (a loss of 9.78% including all friction) and see what happens going through Friday.

     

    Including my previous experimental profits, my maximum loss for both plays (friction included) would be ~$1.50.

     

    In both plays I learned the same first lesson - try to avoid entering as early as I might do for longer-term plays. Both times I've been too early.

     

    From this round so far I learned to not let prior demonstrated resistance points totally divert my attention from what the rising trend (waves having higher highs and lows) is trying to tell me. I took the third assault on the resistance point as being a likely failure point when the trend was telling me that might not be the outcome. If I had waited I could have got into the position about $1 cheaper and would have a smaller loss potential and a larger gain potential.

     

    My risk/reward would have been much better.

     

    Well, that's my "confessions" for today.

     

    I hope everyone had a profitable day!

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2011, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Friday is employment numbers day too...
    5 Oct 2011, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    This Friday is when they add back the 45000 strikers that were dropped last time, so there should be a "gain" that will move headlines (if not really change anything in the basic economy) in the B(L)S numbers.

     

    Of course the quantmonkies will be partying down and turning over control of our economy to their algor-ithms.
    5 Oct 2011, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    "to their algor-ithms"

     

    Verbally, sounds like the name of a rock band fronted by that guy who "Invented the Internet"! ;-))

     

    I wonder if he ever made the charts?

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2011, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    Important simple flash on SA

     

    5:55 PM Domestic stock mutual funds bled $5.7B last week, the sixth straight week of redemptions. At the same time, NYSE short interest soared to 15.7B shares, highest since the March 2009 lows. "With every passing day," Zero Hedge writes, "this equilibrium becomes more and more tenuous until one day the selling has to commence

     

    Anyway,
    We have watched outflows everywhere and hear about record shorting ,but, we all think we will do the other..

     

    " one day the selling has to commence"

     

    SO, it's just timing. NOW !

     

    I choose NO stocks to average down or hold until ! Time is the only thing we can't get back,so, 50 years of diversification and div payers are all gone. 3X short ETFs or long 3X ETFs period. The wind blows I drift with it ! If I get close to a stop area I queue the other direction and click if the stop hits. 99/100 the move lets me enter the STOP in green territory ASAP. And,I almost never own anything at 4pm. I like to sleep !
    3 months it has been working better than I ever dreamed. I got the idea watching 60 Minutes doing the computer trading segment. The computers trade symbols. Not stocks and trade for pennies if need be. I now just mimic them and I don't have to do 100 hours a week on earnings; research,monitoring volume and worrying about rumors or misses etc. Anyway, I see the massive amount of knowledge shared here and I just thought I would share my new game. It seems like a no brainer and I use 300 or 500 share lots with 20 cent or 30 cent stops. I risk 100 bucks if wrong ,but, if right with 3X ETFs I have nice upside and still go to cash by 4..... Many new highs . gb
    5 Oct 2011, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    Latin America an China.
    Most LA countries are tired of China and realizing that China is raping the countries down here and once they get what they can they will go by by,but, there is good news and India is trying to spread out here.

     

    I know Panama is rumbling and Costa Rican's are furious and often stike or pickit an shut down the main highway an bring the country to a halt.. I am posting an article that is a good read . gb

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    5 Oct 2011, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    NFLX, don't know if there are longs or shorts, but, were waiting in Panama for them and I know NFLX was counting on LA for a new earning stream. Well, there in Costa Rica and the net there stinks ,so, things are not so good and no one knows why there not here. Anyway, LA news is not good. So, if you own NFLX an article below....................

     

    http://bit.ly/q2rakf
    5 Oct 2011, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    God bless you Steve. Gods speed....... Thanx
    5 Oct 2011, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Golf: I agree. We all knew he was not well. Such an innovator, a better leader, and THE leader of one of the BEST companies ever to exist anywhere.

     

    You will be missed, Steve Jobs.
    5 Oct 2011, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I am crushed. God Bless.
    5 Oct 2011, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Salutations to Steve from this paleo Apple pixel pusher.

     

    Thanks for all the wonder, sir.
    5 Oct 2011, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (7516) | Send Message
     
    The world will suffer the loss of Steve's imagination. This was a better place to live due in no small part from his creative gifts that he shared with us all.
    5 Oct 2011, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    I went to the last 4 Macworlds in San Francisco where he gave his keynote addresses. Lining up at 4:30 in the morning to get a seat in the auditorium where he would speak -- it was like a rock concert. I was able to wangle a tour of Apple's headquarters in 2005. Lots of us are saddened by this loss.
    6 Oct 2011, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    Palestinians take step one ! As I stated and were watching the beginning . It will be written and was written here !

     

    http://reut.rs/n7nWQQ
    5 Oct 2011, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Quite the interview with author Michael Lewis on Jon Stewart's Daily Show. Touches on Iceland, Greece, Irish, and U.S. economic debacles with good humor and insights. (two parts)
    http://bit.ly/nPtqba
    http://bit.ly/qLIc2H
    5 Oct 2011, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (7516) | Send Message
     
    I think I recall someone mentioning that ECRI officially called this the beginning of a new recession, but I thought I'd post the link to the interview on CNBC in case someone missed it.

     

    http://bit.ly/raGyZa
    5 Oct 2011, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    The train hasn't left for good has it? (I am major cash)
    We still have Greece and I am hoping to play long off of a panic sell-off before a true reversal for Winter occurs. What say you good people?
    5 Oct 2011, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    Could be a big day.. HSI storms back. Europe and the banks solid green.

     

    JCT's last shot in the spotlight and I am wondering if he will get down of his inflationary high horse and cut ! He is leaving after all this time and fought the Fiat King "Ben the wonderful" tooth an nail.

     

    Junker and the rest of the biggies will be there and I think he may cut. 60/40 and give the markets a shot in the fiat butt.(arm)

     

    For the first time in 3 months I held UPRO an FAS overnight. HSI didn't follow the US or Europe and I though today it would participate. It did !

     

    Think short is not where you should be for today and half tomorrow. To little guts to lose sleep over the weekend and having a foreign account lets me shop on Sunday and earlier than most Monday................... gb
    6 Oct 2011, 03:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    And copper is up 14 cents, too.
    6 Oct 2011, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    Maya, ever figure out what happened to Sentry Petroleum?
    6 Oct 2011, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    I was looking at SPLM a couple of days ago. It's behavior suggests some e-scamming pump and dump. Now the dumping part seems to be over.

     

    Sentry has fallen hugely (could also be do to the Aussie flooding situation a while back). From a little over $3.50 in March, to now being at $0.56, just a tad over its $0.46, the 52 week low. That's a pretty big drop!

     

    I'd have to delve more into it, because I recall there was to be results from drilling tests.
    6 Oct 2011, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    Just this week they had an announcement on some drill results that were incomplete but promising. The decline started about 3 weeks ago -- maybe a lack of news.
    6 Oct 2011, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    (SPX) et al: Pre-market news. ECB buying E$40B in bonds to hold up PIIGS causes S&P Futures to tank $5 initially and then rebound a buck to ~$1138.

     

    This suggests SPX of ~$1144, essentially flat from yesterday.

     

    Prior to the Euro rates announcement earlier and this item, futures had been up, suggesting ~$1148 for SPX.

     

    I'll pause here for a minute or two to see what happens after the knee-jerk reaction subsides ...

     

    Ok. Gave up about 1/2 the percentage gains from earlier, went from around +0.55% down to +0.20%. Inferred SPX down to ~$1143.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. (DXY), which had been barely strengthening, is now catching a bid, up $0.35. Futures weaken further, suggesting SPX $1141 now.
    6 Oct 2011, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    (SPX): Update as of 09:17. Futures now *negative* 0.22% at $1132.66. This implies SPX of $1138.

     

    Of course, pre-market is always a bit iffy, but it's looking like the old adage "It's better to be lucky than good" applies here.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Oct 2011, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Interesting development on the Euro front. Spain pays sharply lower rates in bond issue:

     

    http://on-msn.com/qA8yls
    6 Oct 2011, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    About time they figured out how the Tim and Ben puppet show works...
    6 Oct 2011, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Greetings all. I was out of the net yesterday and I'm playing catch up. Steve, Jobs will be sorely missed not only at Apple (APPL) but around the world. His efforts, inventiveness and creativity enriched all our lives and made the recent cell phone revolutions around the world possible. When the every day person on the ground becomes the news media; statists, elitists and disinformation specialists are in real trouble. Thank you Steve.
    6 Oct 2011, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    I had a friend who's dad travelled alot....To try and make it up to him, he would always come home with the latest greatest whatever. I remember the day he showed up with that Apple 2e. We were like...what the heck is it??
    It took weeks, but we eventually were able to make a dot change color and bounce around the screen......

     

    I was a Commodore 64 guy, myself... Fun times
    6 Oct 2011, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Is it any wonder Greece is in deep do-do? Even the dogs get early retirement at tax evader errr... payer expense. http://yhoo.it/o7x8mW
    6 Oct 2011, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Considering that I will be spending about $600 per year on set top boxes...

     

    Not now, but someday soon, you won't need that set top box. Cisco and Motorola lose out. Microsoft gains:

     

    http://onforb.es/qP2IOC/
    6 Oct 2011, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    UPRO and FAS taking profits. I smell an Obama drop
    6 Oct 2011, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Indeed. Any time an administration official opens their mouth you can count on a drop. Fore warned is fore armed. Of course with these folks in charge it could read strong armed.
    6 Oct 2011, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    Sold a bit too soon. but, back in SPXU 19.00 19 cent stop.. trying to go other way and make twice... lol
    6 Oct 2011, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    Moved stop to 19.11
    6 Oct 2011, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    nope .. didn't work.. on trade 2 stopped @ $19.10 9 cents loss off the $ 2.21 on FAS .. Still I like the way it works. $1,110 up on 500 FAS and $ 37 down.. .on 300 SPXU

     

    Tight freeking stops.. the key.. Catch the wind direction as these buggas move dam fast. Or out !

     

    Oh well, today is finished.. Only problem is Settled funds. Once I trade the funds are n/g for 3 days. So, i keep 25% limit for each day ,so, I can trade everyday. lol
    6 Oct 2011, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Tale of Two Loan Programs
    U.S. Funds Targeted for Small Business Instead Used by Banks to Repay TARP. From: The Wall Street Journal Business, By Emily Maltby and Angus Loten

     

    More than half of $4 billion in federal funds disbursed this year to spur small-business lending by community banks was used to repay bailout funds that the banks received under the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program.

     

    The Small Business Lending Fund was meant to raise capital at smaller banks, which tend to lend more heavily to small businesses, in the hopes of jump-starting growth and employment. But instead of directly lending to small businesses, many of the banks used the money to rid themselves of higher-cost TARP debt and tougher restrictions. http://tinyurl.com/3qc...
    ----------------------
    Unbelievable!
    6 Oct 2011, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Sorry Rat, but I disagree...

     

    It is ABSOLUTELY believable. Predictable... no, INEVITABLE.
    6 Oct 2011, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    In fact it's standard practice. http://bit.ly/q9rUxJ This is an oldie but goody and exemplifies what the agenda really is.
    6 Oct 2011, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (7516) | Send Message
     
    What can we expect when the FDIC increases its fees that banks pay and also requires the banks to prepay multiple years of fees in order for the FDIC to remain solvent (from their accounting perspective)?
    6 Oct 2011, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    (SPXU): Stick save got me in the last 5 minutes of the day - stopped out. AFAICT, I was cooked when the dollar lost its bid between 9 and 10 A.M.

     

    SPX started it's trend up, fairly steady, at 09:55.

     

    Around 11:45 the trend flattened out and it was looking like I might be in a good position for the rest of the day, excluding a stick save from these levels.

     

    But at 13:00 dollar started weakening more and at 13:45 SPX started trending up again. Dollar dropped a full $1, high to low, today. (TLT) also weakened 1.65%.

     

    "Risk ON"!

     

    Finally at 15:24, the stick save began and I was stopped out at 15:58.

     

    I'm satisfied that my stop was not too tight as I can't see the additional risk for what looks to be a tough slog to actually make the profits.

     

    Adding to my "what I think I've learned": Avoid such plays immediately after end of "window dressing" season.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Oct 2011, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    My key, if I was day trading, to not short the market today, was seeing copper up 3 and 4% premarket.

     

    Enjoying your summaries greatly, HTL
    6 Oct 2011, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    I'm taking off early and will be back Tuesday God willing and the river don't rise. I might be on tomorrow but in case I'm not have a great holiday week end all. God luck and profits to every one.
    6 Oct 2011, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Some decisions/gambles on what will go up more...

     

    Sold out COUGF.
    Bought some CNRMF and RNSGF (CNRMF had a bad day, RNSGF was up 20%+).

     

    Exiting ETAK on next decent rally.

     

    Sold out NG because announcing costs of the mine are going up during a global downturn is not management I care to deal with.

     

    Raising cash on any rally to forward to Mongolia... as soon as I can. Local stock market there was up during the last couple of weeks... albeit down for the year... but that was on the heels of 136% returns last year.
    6 Oct 2011, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    One more note. One of the more cynical traders on the CALVF Raging Bull board is buying between 6 and 7 cents with an exit target of 20 cents plus. He's usually hated by other board members... but now he's buying so they're okay with him.

     

    His brief comment on the buy (based on 3 year chart):
    http://bit.ly/nPWakC

     

    (reminder: this is a miner with primary gold mine in Zimbabwe)
    6 Oct 2011, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    I am convinced they set the job number so low and it includes VZ boys/girls. Got 500 FAS at 11.12 and held overnight. 55,000 consensus with 45K.. Crap, HD can beat in Florida for the holiday shorts..

     

    And, an update on God's country. As i said.. There publicly practicing now !

     

    http://bit.ly/qUPAlM
    6 Oct 2011, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    To all on QC, tomorrow at sundown I must fast and ask to be forgiven for my MANY sins. I hope the L-rd will have an open heart and hear my request. However, today I must ask ALL others who I may have harmed .Or insulted .Or sinned against. So, I openly request to all here who have shared so much invaluable knowledge and humor to please forgive me if I have done anything to you. Shalom, gb ...Bob
    6 Oct 2011, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    How many of you are still heavy cash?
    6 Oct 2011, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    Me, 75%.. Always until they stop 3X etfs.............

     

    I figure at 3X it is like being in 75% without the risk. Funny, there super risky ,but, bottom line dollar for dollar. There not... go figure.......gb
    6 Oct 2011, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    My closest group member who I share the 4 am picks sent me a powerful essay concerning the market. I am sure it has been mentioned and we all hear about it ,but, reading it made me think about it again and pay serious attention because saying often just didn't have the same impact as seeing it written. So, I snatched a paragraph.

     

    Interesting.

     

    How about you? Are you very, very scared?

     

    2. And if you're not – if you're happy and short and ready to make a fortune as the market drops through HELL, take note of this. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) reported mid-September that a full three quarters of its outstanding shares are short. That's 536 million out of a possible 724 million. Are you scared now? Are you worried about a squeeze? Are your cojones taped to your leg?

     

    So NOW....I think I am going to keep doing my 3X thing since it ain't broke and 20 cent stops ( 19 cent ! I am Jewish ) can't really hurt me as there are less odds on an ETF fund being halted on a company news story an a tight stop is know where near a % trigger ,but, I think I am going to KEEP 20/25% long and hold the nose an not trade it. I see a couple of melt up articles and the S&P is at 1957 P/E earning levels ,so, this bad economy must be priced in. I am old ,but, I am nimble and the cojones ( is big time term in Panama ) thing struck me. Taped to my leg ! Not.

     

    If I have 3x longs it will be the same as mostly invested. I am keeping my afternoon nibble in FAS and the UPRO I planned on flipping. I will just take a day off and wait until the next days 25% settle...................
    6 Oct 2011, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    It's a long article, but really well written and informative- Michael Lewis in Vanity Fair. I'm giving you the link because once again, politics trumps economics!
    http://vnty.fr/q0bs9y
    7 Oct 2011, 01:07 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Is this a hoax? Has anyone else heard of a terrorist plot to shut down the NYSE via a cyber attack on Oct. 10th?
    http://bit.ly/pwLpuv
    7 Oct 2011, 01:17 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Pal's Brio/Bravo (BBRG) concept just opened up their 91st location.

     

    http://bit.ly/nO3Xo2
    7 Oct 2011, 01:31 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Damn! First I heard of this, OyGee.
    7 Oct 2011, 01:32 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2714) | Send Message
     
    Yes, Bloomberg ran this article a couple of days ago: http://bloom.bg/pJqCoQ
    What is still not clear is whether their threat/plan is to shut down the website only or exchange trading itself.
    7 Oct 2011, 04:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    (SPX) Futures jumped +$14, $1167.63 implying $1173-4 SPX, on the employment news, private sector +137K, unemployment rate steady @ 9.1%.

     

    NFP revised to 127K from 85K for July, Aug 57K. Sept +103K.

     

    U6 worsened.

     

    Now futures $1172, suggesting SPX $1178.

     

    European markets bounced substantially on the news as well.

     

    (DXY) unchanged.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Oct 2011, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    (SPX), DXY), TLT): After the initial knee-jerk reaction, futures holding steady around $1169-$1170 (infers SPX of ~$1176), DXY still steady @ $78.92 and TLT fluctuating bewteen -1.44% and -1.76%.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Oct 2011, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    (SPX), (DXY), (TLT): Last update 09:11. Trend in futures shows a little weakening now, down to ~$1165 suggesting SPX ~$1171.

     

    More dramatically, DXY tanking, now down to $78.57 and in a 15 minute slide. This matches with normal equities up when dollar is down.

     

    TLT seems to have settled around -1.25%.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Oct 2011, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    103,000 beats whisper of 80K... FAS overnight works.

     

    19,000 temps in the # ,so, really the beat above whisper was there. Who cares we wanted to go higher and we will .How long ? Trailing stop after 30 cent move up and will hold the extra 20% as "thee" portfolio.

     

    See that 14.2% of 24 to 35 year olds living with mom & dad. That is a thorn in housing ! Housing is the key and 24K construction hires were mostly commercial. Not residential not boding well for housing. gb
    7 Oct 2011, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    FAS 11.90 sale in pre hit... gone Now hoping for a S&P pop to try and SPXU back for a short profit take. Got to hone the game...........lol
    7 Oct 2011, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    SPXU in @ 18.30. Stop in @ 18.11
    7 Oct 2011, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    STOP Raised to 18.40. House money now. Pennies gained or more ? da wind
    7 Oct 2011, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    nope... streamers turned green taking 18.49 and trying UPRO.

     

    Last of settled funds for today.......beach by lunchtime.......pura vida, gb
    7 Oct 2011, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    These 3X's move like monsters even though the market is standing still. UPRP 50.16 stop hit. 2 tiny gains and a good FAS 73 cent sale in the pre... Good day but usable funds are shot already.......@ A new high and chipping chipping chipping.

     

    I see why computers do this. Micro trading is slow when it's tight and big when there is a big move. i'll Keep going to it doesn't work. gb
    7 Oct 2011, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    OG: Red Hat (RHT) is the software company that provides security protection for the NYSE. It's up a quarter today.
    7 Oct 2011, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Wednesday 11:44 AM UBS gives a thumbs-up to Red Hat's (RHT +1.3%) $136M acquisition of Gluster, noting how Gluster's software gives Red Hat a foothold in the booming market for unstructured data storage, which it expects will grow at a 19% annual rate through 2014. Red Hat underperformed yesterday due to fears about the acquisition's impact on near-term margins. 1 Comment [Tech, Quick Ideas]
    7 Oct 2011, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    I'd rather have owned FEED the past two days; up over 50%!
    7 Oct 2011, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I got out at $1 recently...

     

    Now at $.74...

     

    Could be I should have left it on my "buy@" list.
    7 Oct 2011, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Fitch downgrades Spain to 'AA-', outlook negative

     

    Fitch downgraded Italy's foreign and local currency long-term issuer default ratings from "AA-" to "A+" and it's short-term rating from "F1+" to "F1."

     

    Outlook on the long-term ratings is negative.
    7 Oct 2011, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    On Italy's short term debt going from F1+ to F1: it's like being a little pregnant.
    7 Oct 2011, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    That's what I was looking for...thinking about shorting over weekend...
    I expect Euro nervousness to move back into spotlight next week...nothing settled yet and markets should wake up to that before resuming...
    7 Oct 2011, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    (SPX), (SPXU): Well, being a glutton for punishment, seeing the various resistance and support points from yesterday centering around things I had identified in the past,

     

    ~$1145 - early in the day, minor resistance and support.
    ~$1150 - early major resistance, later in the day major support.
    ~$1147 - early minor support.
    ~$1149 - early minor resistance and then minor support.
    ~$1155-$1156 - long sideways trading center line.
    ~$1153 - major resistance and support from 11:45 onward.
    ~$1160 - late in the day minor resistance.

     

    Over time having to come to believe that I'm catching on to this TA stuff, it being "Fearful Friday", ...

     

    I identified what looked like it was nearing a top in the wave patterns and at 11:30 took another small position in SPXU @ $18.64 when SPY topped that particular wave at $116.43. At 12:02, the last up wave on SPY occurred, topping at $116.64.

     

    At 12:10, that top was hit again and down it started.

     

    At ~12:25 the Italy and Spain downgrades hit.

     

    The dollar caught a big bid, right now up ~$0.30 from where it had been hovering, and the SPY finished the initial plunge a 12:22 @ a low of $115.37.

     

    Now it has started making successively lower waves, currently sitting at an intra-day low so far of $115.09, equating to SPX of $1150 - an important support and resistance area.

     

    I'm up a bit ATM and hopeful that by EOD I'll have maybe a dollar or so of my prior loss back. This is from thinking that we might see that $1139/$1140 level again.

     

    Maybe more as DXY just crossed above $79.01. Usually DXY up big = market down big.

     

    The "three-martini lunch crowd" is back, so we'll see how the rest of the day progresses.

     

    Everybody have a good weekend if I don't "see" you again before EOD.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Oct 2011, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    (SPX), (SPXU): had nailed pretty good and actually a small profit. Decided to let 'er ride in case there was an EOD downdraft.

     

    Well, at 13:43, with lots of potential resistance points to the upside, it started a climb up even though the DXY continued to strengthen (currently up to $79.21). With stops set, I decided to continue the experiment.

     

    My stop-limit kicked in @ 15:16 and I lost trading fees plus a couple of pennies - total $0.2695/share.

     

    So, even the traditional inverse dollar/equities behavior is broken, since we went from what looks like a low of $78.45 to (best estimate) a high around $79.25.

     

    So several of the behaviors seen in the last many months can *not* be relied upon anymore.

     

    Back to school time I guess, to learn the *new* behaviors.

     

    Looks like we're headed back to next resistance around $1170 or so.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Oct 2011, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    CORRECTION: I've been assuming the live USD value feed was DXY, but Marketwatch displayed value is about $0.45 lower than what the live feed shows. So I'm uncertain what is displayed.

     

    However, the behavior seems to match, so I'm not sure the difference is significant, other than I should avoid saying DXY.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Oct 2011, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    Lol! Sure enough, hit $1170 on (SPX) and then started down, down, down.

     

    Right now, $1155 and I would be +~$0.34 minus friction (~$0.20).

     

    I'm going to have think about this to see what I can take away.

     

    The first possibility is to enter earlier at a higher SPX price (similar to prior lessons) rather than waiting to confirm trends. GB's strategy of identify quickly, set tight stops and be ready to flip might be the only way to play it intra-day. For *me*, I'm not ready to go there *yet*.

     

    But it may be the only thing that looks somewhat reliable ATM. I'll have to continue to *cogitate* on that some more. I think experiments have been sufficient for now.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Oct 2011, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Great call, Hard!

     

    You guru!
    7 Oct 2011, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    "Guru"? LoL.

     

    The only "guru" thing about me may be that I handle the stresses by assuming the lotus position and going "ooommmm, ooommm, ..." a few times and then going silent.

     

    No, I'm likely not deep in meditation - more likely in a coma! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    7 Oct 2011, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I wish I could do the TA thing. But, the streamer works well. I queue the trade and watch the streamer. If a stop is hit I click ASAP and I am in the other way. It moves so fast I can barely get the new stop in before I need to raise it. I raise in 5 cents 10 cents whatever and keep doing it. It rushes the blood ,but, today was another huge day. I ran out of settled funds ,but, grabbed SPXU with Mom's account and it shot up. And, as soon as the streamer turned red on Scttrade an TD I clicked FAS at 10.40 an in @ 10.41.Then dumped SPXU. Set a sale at 11 bucks and went to catch lunch. Got back at 4 ish and it was gone. I don't like to hold overnight ,but, there was such a big gain in the 2 days I figured it was house money and I grabbed 500 back at 10.47 in Mom's.

     

    The way I see it.. Merkal and Schmuckosy meet tomorrow ! French banks are 50 cents on the dollar. The ECB has been buying fists full on Italy an Spain's bonds and now Fitch downgrades. Those two JOKERS MUST MUST say something.
    Or it all comes tumbling down....... I can sell in the premarket at 8 am in Scottrade and not give back the 3+ dollars in FAS over the last 2 days ,but, I am very sure they will come up with some kinda lie to appease for the short term.

     

    I hope the have there crew to poll test there lines like our idiots do.
    They are two major world leaders................

     

    To all . Lots of love and if your Jewish have a safe and peaceful fast
    Shalom, golfitobob
    7 Oct 2011, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    GB: Like you I'm hampered right now as my tests are being run in my IRA accounts. Once I think I've got a handle on it, I'll switch to my conventional account where I can trade in and out as many times as I want in one day.

     

    There's only one thing to watch out for there - "pattern day trader".

     

    If 3 or more days out of 5 trading days I do in and out of the same stock, they want $25K, per FINRA rules, even though I don't ever use margin - all cash trades.

     

    I'm too cheap to tie up that much until I'm ready to go full-time. Plus, while I'm learning, if it's not there I can't use it - a form of "self discipline" (sans the S & M aspects of course)! ;-))

     

    Back before that rule was slapped on me, I made same decent bread in some gold stocks and options. Of course the gold stock was being manipulated at the time, which helped me a lot. Cramer was pumping it. I decided lots of folks were being hurt by this so I e-mailed Cramer and told him it was being manipulated. Three days later it stopped. The whole pattern disappeared and it started acting just like any other stock.

     

    Back then I might trade the equity or options 3-4 times a day.

     

    That was in 200 ... 8? I was just being fitted for my tin-foil hat and didn't really know anything about that manipulation stuff then, but I recognized the pattern after a while.

     

    Maybe if I'd kept my yap shut I'd have a lot more $s now, but I wouldn't be me if I 1) kept my yap shut, and 2) knew folks were being shafted and didn't do what I could.

     

    I think # 1 was the more influential trait.

     

    As to reading the charts (not fishing here folks), I still have a long way to go. I need to get more into candlesticks and (maybe Elliott Wave - although I'm sort of negative on that one). And most of my focus has been on daily charts for inter-day trades. I think candlesticks are more important for intra-day (from what I've read so far) and the patterns and oscillators are used in a different way.

     

    Anyway, I hope you have a good weekend.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Oct 2011, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    HTL, thanx for the heads up. I received a free ride warning ,but so far that is it. I have I moved 2/3 s of my IRA from TD Ameritrade to Scottrade and Worldwide down here. Takes 3/4 weeks for the transfer ,so, I am doing
    $ 5 Gs every month until it is gone,but, now I WILL have the wife call and see if that rule is here !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Her Spanish is 250% better than mine and this is serious. So THANXXXXXXXXXX

     

    So far, I buy in TD an Scottrade and Panama . Each need 3 days for the trade funds to settle. So, hopefully I will avoid that problem as the most I can use one account is 2 times per week for the symbol............

     

    I also opened my personal account here in the wife's name. My views on the US are what they are and I would hate to give Obama a penny or pay any income tax.I am doing equally as well,but, she isn't a US anything and owes BarryO or Timmy G nada !

     

    I must an do file perfect forms ,but, as it stands the level is below needing to pay Fed Tax. And, the IRAs don't pay or do I need to keep all sorts of receipts. Not needed until I am old enough to withdraw and there Roths.So, never.

     

    I am so siked as I have turned a small $42g's into $156+ this year and Mom's is similar and much larger. I don't worry her as she is having good days an bad. She went to Scottrade wanting her statements ( I have them electronic) . They said please come to work for us. Seems they thought she was trading and that was pretty cool to me.

     

    I am feeling like I never want to risk giving any back. So, this is my new plan. I broke my new rule today holding ,but, it has been tough getting in early with the US IRAs. The Panama account is worldwide and 6 days a week I can buy in Asia it's Monday on Sunday here. I actually grabbed AAPL ADRs in Germany and did a 17 point day trade when Dear Steve left us.I also can buy at 4 am. That is the real key as the heard enters at 8am. If you get access between 4am and 7:45 you can have a good look at Asia and Europe. I very often sell between 8 am & 9am as I have a good gain. Today I sold at 8:18 as I put an offer for FAS @ 11.80 and off she went. By 9:30 it was 11.38.

     

    Anyway, great weekend. GB
    7 Oct 2011, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    I will not be suprised to see some more shorts finishing out in Silver for another drop...and then a good run for it...It seems about half the shorts were covered last week and into early this week. Doubt seriously the Boyz will let that go easily...be back to finish off and then reverse their bets.

     

    Also been betting on Da Boyz for some more downward pressure in overall markets. Sure looks like media has been leading rather than following movements even more than usual on runs up and down. If the last bottom was THE (near-term) bottom...I missed it, and so dig some bigs by the lack of volume. I do not expect them to allow that and will look for volume coming off THE real bottom and not days into it when it becomes real.
    7 Oct 2011, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    Media has flat out been cheerleaders and not close to reporting. And, Bloom spinning the job # as good news all day is sickening.

     

    And, had the group grab ZSL early and silver turned down nicely. Hope your correct in the short term direction. We have good green stops in ,but, there trailing and like more of a pullback.......chao, gb
    7 Oct 2011, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Silver shorts have been lightening.
    Re questions whether we are about to enter a rally or a headfake:
    Look at S & P chart:
    IMO, got to get about 1165-75 and there for awhile
    http://yhoo.it/oMrhro;range=6m
    7 Oct 2011, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • ScroogeMcduck
    , contributor
    Comments (511) | Send Message
     
    OG, Check out the big volume in the 3x bull etfs lately.
    TQQQ, TNA, TYH, BGU, ERX, FAS......

     

    makes you wonder.......
    7 Oct 2011, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • ScroogeMcduck
    , contributor
    Comments (511) | Send Message
     
    For any body who is feeling optimistic check out KONA
    7 Oct 2011, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Hey Scroogie!

     

    Check out Bravo/Brio (BBRG). This baby's opening up locations, fast.
    7 Oct 2011, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • ScroogeMcduck
    , contributor
    Comments (511) | Send Message
     
    I like the balance sheet but there's no momentum. Check out the volume and price action in KONA it's being bit up hard.
    7 Oct 2011, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    (October 7, 2011) Congressional Research Service Finds US Exposure To Europe At $640 Billion And "Could Be Considerably Higher. From: Zero Hedge, by Tyler Durden.
    http://tinyurl.com/42z...

     

    Here is a link to my posting in the Stability of the European Union Concentrator that adds an explanation of something called Bilateral Netting: http://tinyurl.com/3e2...
    7 Oct 2011, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    This news aparently broke at 3:45 today... just about the time that the market reversed at the end of the day.
    7 Oct 2011, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    FPA, thanks for posting. Just got to open Conservbite daily email and there it was.

     

    He breaks all the powerful stuff. OG posted his last power packed article and I instapost his Israel stuff.

     

    Been commenting for months on huge US bank exposure and until CDS boys lowered the boom on MS nobody paid no mind.

     

    BAC and MS and even C should be avoided like the plague. thanx, gb
    7 Oct 2011, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    NOW THEY TELL US! That explains why the futures dropped about $1, sitting down at $1155, indicating SPX ~ $1160, right now.

     

    If they'd told us at 15:15, I'd be sitting in a profit position right now.

     

    I think someone's out to get me! |;-{<

     

    The odd thing is that several of us have posted links and stuff about this over the last ... 3/4/5(?) months. You'd think the market would already know about it too and have it priced in.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Oct 2011, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (7516) | Send Message
     
    The following link isn't big news since consumer spending was already reported to be down in August, but I am wondering how much of the drop in credit was due to reduced spending and how much was due to foreclosures, bankruptcies, etc. I have so much going on right now I don't think I'll get to it this month, but I think the results could be interesting. If much is coming from a new wave of foreclosures, spending could rise again (like in 2009) because, without the big mortgage, people would have more spending money. The concept doesn't make sense until you dig into the numbers, though. But if things were to get bad enough in housing we could see another boost in consumer spending to keep the economy moving. Crazy, right? But it happened before. Just my thoughts.

     

    http://yhoo.it/pfIh88
    7 Oct 2011, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (346) | Send Message
     
    Do you guys have an opinion on Lightbridge (LTBR) as a trading vehicle?

     

    I wrote about it recently after a 33% pop that occurred on news that one of their executives was appointed as chairman of a nuclear fuel tech group which, it retrospect may have been more "news" than news. It subsequently dropped to near its lows. Today it jumped 22%, apparently only related to a short interview of the chairman by Tobin Smith (who comes off like a boob).

     

    Take home point was potential of their metallic (non-oxide) uranium fuel to generate $10M/year/reactor royalties for $90M/reactor/year value in increased generation capacity.
    http://bit.ly/ppZp8u

     

    Volume was above ave. but still only 78K. I'm expecting it to drop back to the 1.85 range and hope to pick up some more to trade or maybe just to have.
    7 Oct 2011, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    I've liked their technology and strategy (make product that can sell into the existing industry) for a long time, as well as the newer stuff they're working on.

     

    But when the Fukishima reactors got wacked by the Japan earthquake and tsunami, they started dropping like a stone and haven't really stabilized yet (of course I've not been tracking closely for a trade or investment) to the point I think it's worth looking at.

     

    I think the company is good but the stock is broken right now. Add in the flaky overall markets and I think I'll wait on that stock.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    7 Oct 2011, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    As a counterpoint to ECRI's recession call this week, Cullen Roche's "Rail Traffic: No Recession Here Yet" suggests that things are not yet deteriorating as severly as ECRI suggests. Add in the discussion yesterday on CNBC about difficulty in finding OTR truck drivers and maybe we're not heading into the double-dip at all?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    8 Oct 2011, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    For those interested, this AAR PDF, http://bit.ly/r1QVrE/~/media/aar/railtimei... includes not only the latest railcar data but also includes the revised economic indicators.

     

    All told, not nearly as grim looking as ECRI's call suggests.

     

    One snippet: "During the last week of September — Week 39 of 2011 — U.S. railroads originated 312,170 carloads of freight, which is more carload traffic than in any week since Week 45 in November 2008".

     

    HardToLove
    8 Oct 2011, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    Canal news to go with the rail data... BUSY.....................

     

    http://bit.ly/pCaAbD/
    8 Oct 2011, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/ozS7Cl

     

    I enjoyed an old Steve Jobs clip @ Stanford
    8 Oct 2011, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    A good video I'd never seen.

     

    Thanks!

     

    HardToLove
    8 Oct 2011, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Interesting comment by Robert Hsu:

     

    Every 1% drop in U.S. Gross Domestic Profit means a 6% drop in Chinese export growth—which accounts for 1/3 of the Chinese economy.
    8 Oct 2011, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    There's another part to that story that *may* be developing as well - due to rising Chinese labor costs and the weaker (so far) dollar and strengthening Yuan, we may be "on-shoring" a fair number of jobs over the next few years.

     

    So a 1% rise in our GDP would not necessarily translate into a 6% rise in Chinese export growth.

     

    That would be nice as we made stuff here, sold stuff here (and elsewhere) and didn't send all those dollars over to China and elsewhere.

     

    Might actually get some employment growth over time from both the "on-shoring" and the money velocity stimulating the economy over *here* for a change.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Oct 2011, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2754) | Send Message
     
    Bringing "Chinese jobs" back onshore seems like a good match to the "unskilled workers" our public schools are graduating now. ( lowest SAT scores since 1972) Soon, they will be joined by many college degree holding folks with large debts and few professional skills.

     

    Undereducated managers and innumerate workers. Sounds like fodder for vegetable harvesting and low tech production lines to me. We can just import the engineers, scientists and mathematicians we need. For now :-(

     

    Thank your FedGov for their involvement in funding "education". Billions spent each year for more workers who pay no taxes because they earn so little. That's assuming they don't need social welfare to survive!

     

    But the Fed will fix it by printing so much money that the resulting devalued dollar will virtually stop imports from all the lower inflation countries, like almost everyone else lives in. Think $100 for a portable radio. Made in the USA.

     

    I feel so much better, what with the smart folks running our federal government! Go USA!
    8 Oct 2011, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    Guys/gals,

     

    For 5 months, I have commented that China's secret weapon saving their economy was that the goods an service inflation was in the 6%'s and all focused on that ,but, the wage inflation was 15+% and that was really keeping their domestic economy strong.

     

    Also, many of these calculations concerning our GDP and there export numbers might be a little fuzzy. China is much more of an assembler than a actual manufacturer. They import 75% of the goods they assemble and export,so, world GDP will dictate much of the numbers. It will also set the tone of what US companies will do as far as setting up manufacturing for all these supposed new jobs.Demand !?? I think all these articles might be false hope !

     

    I see all these companies still setting up outside the US as CSCO an INTC an others are building plants in LA and still subcontracting in Asia. I think all these assumptions are pie in the sky.

     

    And, since I found SA in March because of my love of PMs , I have tototed Yuan accounts and erged for some diversification. Even though the Dollar has risen it still hasn't gained back near the Yuan's 2011 rise ! Now it seems it is going popular and the bandwagon after the Congress is making all the noise. My old comments fit these articles !

     

    http://on.wsj.com/dLAEqt

     

    http://usat.ly/nRRMng

     

    Every fiber in my body knows that the SDR basket of 8 will come ! Not decades ,but, 2/3 years tops unless my Middle East theories move it up. Then I would not like to own dollars or stocks or paper PMs........ Real gold & silver and foreign bank accounts or in this case Yuan based US account....."If"... hmmmm , luck, gb
    9 Oct 2011, 06:22 AM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    OG, Mr Hsu, is a smart guy, but, this assumption doesn't fit the smell test. Just defies common sense. We all know the current US economy and using the WMTs as a guide. WMT's growth is foreign and US growth is nil. We all should have had the fact the Europe is China's number one trade partner firmly put in our minds from the recent Chinese public comments during the Euro mayhem.

     

    So, if Europe is their number one partner and their second now is L.A. and all their other deals in OPEC countries and Iraq an Afghan, etc. It defies logic that the 170,000,000 consumers still with money to spend in the US would drive that large of a GDP % in China... NOT.........

     

    But, hey we can all chuck out any numbers we want........ The Chinese websites I always link are pretty good an in English. Also, really kinda truthful as China wants to be the # 1 biggie and pumping out bogus numbers are not in their interest. I actually trust them more than US #s.......gb
    9 Oct 2011, 07:09 AM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    I dont see Chinese jobs coming back to the US anytime soon. Huge disparity between our regulated minimum wage and what Chinese workers are receiving. Chinese workers in those apple factories are making a huge 51 cents an hour. And of course those factories dont have to worry about things like EPA mandates or OSHA standards.
    9 Oct 2011, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    You need to combine these two thoughts to see the implications.

     

    "But the Fed will fix it by printing so much money that the resulting devalued dollar will virtually stop imports"

     

    and

     

    "We can just import the engineers, scientists and mathematicians we need. For now :-("

     

    I'm thinking the second possibility will go away if they get paid in dollars and it's debasement continues - another import stopped.

     

    I'm with you on the implication that the education system needs to get back to local control and competitive behavior.

     

    Earlier parental involvement, such as reading to children at a very young age, is also a necessary step. Many of the later life skills began getting "wired in" in the very early formative years - can't wait for K-12 to start doing that.

     

    Parents could give up high-brow stuff like "The Simpsons", "Keeping Up with the Kardashians, ... to benefit their children I think.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2011, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    I didn't catch this before, it came out in August:
    The U.S. Geological Survey will slash its Marcellus Shale reserve estimate to 84T cubic feet of gas from earlier government estimates of 410T.
    http://bit.ly/qCZkNO=
    8 Oct 2011, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    That's impressive. A congressman paying attention and trying to get the facts straight.

     

    Got to applaud that man.

     

    Thanks for that link.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Oct 2011, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    There was a lot of discussion, back and forth, on that when the report came out -- new estimate also much higher than 2002 figure.. USGS also estimated natural gas liquids. Here's a link on the subject. http://on.wsj.com/pPdPSl
    8 Oct 2011, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    I've been catching up on SA articles and noted that recently some of the bearish slant have commented on the falling prices of copper and other commodities as reinforcing their view that the world's economies, especially China, are slowing dramatically.

     

    However that view can only hold in isolation from other things we are seeing, especially the third chart on this page.

     

    http://bit.ly/rrjY6t

     

    Note the strengthening of the dollar from late August until now. Is there any way that dollar-denominated commodity prices could avoid plummeting when the USD gets a meteoric rise like that?

     

    Of course it may be due to EZ issues, but that's irrelevant when trying to support declining world demand from price alone. We can take the inverse view - if the EZ was "solved" months ago the dollar wouldn't have strengthened and copper and other dollar-denominated commodities would still be rising and all the bulls would be claiming, just as invalidly, that price shows economies roaring back to life!

     

    Only when we have a stable dollar can we infer anything about demand from price!

     

    All I'm saying is that we can't count on "Dr. Copper" et al prices to support a bearish thesis at this time. *If* ECRI's indicators include such indicators it could be giving a false reading I guess.

     

    Rio-tinto, who ought to know, expects copper demand to remain strong, as of 9/15 of this year.

     

    http://fxn.ws/r0nVvk/

     

    As recently as June, when the calls for a global slowdown were well underway, China consumption was still projected to be very strong while the rest of the world's use weakened.

     

    http://bit.ly/nFozvo

     

    So, that's my thoughts about bears calling for recession based purely on the price of copper and other dollar-denominated commodities.

     

    Oh! And add in the link about Panama Canal traffic that GB posted above, the AAR railcar loadings, ... Those sure don't suggest that everything is falling off the cliff right now!

     

    If the markets are pricing in a double dip and/or worldwide slowdown ATM, they may get a surprise just a few months down the road.

     

    Or not! I certainly don't know, but I wouldn't place any bets in that direction just based on pricing as it currently stands.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Oct 2011, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I was curious about the AAR weekly railroad traffic increase. The key to interpreting AAR numbers is to look at them in the context of the normal seasonal trend.

     

    You can see the chart in the "Projections/ Intelligence for the 2011 Holiday Shopping Season (Sales, Jobs)" Instablog:
    http://tinyurl.com/3nl....

     

    The danger zone with rail shipments starts in October. If rail shipments follow the 2010 pattern, we are holding. If they drop below 2010 starting in October, that would be cause for concern.

     

    Right now, rail shipments are not signaling recession.
    8 Oct 2011, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Great links, folks!

     

    Copper is up almost 10% off its low.

     

    In speaking the other night with the GM of my local watering hole, he said that not one person has come in the door looking for work in the last SIX months! Not one single app has been filled out.

     

    He's tried Craig List, and other employment services. I'm pretty sure he's being straight with me because, first he's a good guy, and second, I haven't seen any new faces around.

     

    Who is the dishwasher? A Chinaman with a Chinese law degree. When he last returned from his homeland, I asked him how the trip went. "Two crwowded...two crwowded," he said, always smiling.

     

    Further, In Alabama, tomatoes are going unpicked, because Alabama just adopted Arizona immigration policies where anyone who "appears" to be an illegal alien can be detained and searched.

     

    Tomato farmers who once had 40 to 50 pickers come in, now only are getting 6 to 8.

     

    This is all what fires up my ire, when Obama's Jobs Plan has more money going toward extending unemployement benefits than for creating jobs.
    8 Oct 2011, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    Obviously your uninformed regarding the Az immigration policy. Your statement reminds me of the US Attorney General Eric Holder. He denounced it but said he had not read the Immig. law. The fed govt is suing Az. Most absurd thing, and your adding to the bs. Sad. Az is trying to enforce the existing FED laws that the FED GOVT refuses too!
    9 Oct 2011, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Fatfretter: We haven't hung out long enough, I guess. I am somewhat pro AZ immigration policy. But there are lots of problems with this deep rooted, passionate and very messy immigration policy. It's an extremely complicated issue, especially when viewed in a case-by-case basis.

     

    I completely agree with you, in that I am not fully informed. I see rationality in both sides of the tomatoes going unpicked debate.
    9 Oct 2011, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I agree with you. Extending the unemployment benefits is just extending the underlying problem out indefinately.

     

    I bet if the FED and Alabama untethered these people from the dole that they are receiving, tomato farmers would not have an issue with pickers.
    9 Oct 2011, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    The problems in Alabama are a bit overhyped, I was recently there, and got an earfull, but anyway, having been in a business where immigrants were frequently employed...

     

    ANYTIME the "word" gets out that the law is actually going to be enforced (whether it be in a county, a company or a state), the routine flow of illegals is, indeed, interrupted. This creates a probelm initially, since the prior group of illegals (working for lower wages) are abruptly diverted elsewhere. Higher wage legals don't immediately backfill the lack, since they are a more stable workforce and move around less. They tend to already HAVE a job by the time the news hits that there is a lack of workers for temp jobs in this place or that state, and particularly when the going rate turns out (as it inevitably does) to be an unattractive wage...

     

    But soon afterward the reaction to the news starts (something which the media rarely reports, since it requires some true patience and attention to detail, which they near-universally lack). By the time wages adjust upward (and the needed workforce materializes as though by magic), the media is uninterested in this aspect and ignores it.

     

    Whenever capitalism and common sense wins out, count on the MSM to turn a deaf ear.

     

    As for the damage this does to the ag companies, they enjoyed the fruits of cheap labor for many years, so presumbably the good businessmen among them were well aware that one day this might happen (it falls under the "inevitable" file)... Rather than lose the crop, they will doubtless resort to offering bonuses and higher wages. Some will be stubborn or slow to react, and take the losses which follow poor management. I have little pity to spare for them.

     

    Many pretty nasty jobs SHOULD pay better, and once did, except they have become conditioned to ready pools of poor illegals who will fill those roles for low pay and tolerate workplace abuses.
    10 Oct 2011, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Excellent comment TB.
    10 Oct 2011, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    The bottom line point that I believe Maya is making and is true, is that there are a lot of jobs out there, but the workforce that should be filling those jobs is unwilling to take them. The lower class was expected to stand up and contribute to American society by being responsible working people, and they were supposed to be rewarded this past decade by being able to own a home. When the past administration and congress decided every bus-boy in America should get a home, they did not count on those bus-boy's not wanting to work, and walking away from their homes and mortgages without a qualm in the world. Which led to the credit squeeze, which led to honest hard working middle-class losing their jobs and losing their homes.

     

    Now these middle-class people (chinese lawyer) who have been responsible but lost their jobs are expected to take jobs that the immigrants have traditionally filled but are now scared to occupy because of not new laws being enforced and the lower class won't take because of their self-centered entitlement mentality.
    10 Oct 2011, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... First let me congratulate you for living in, or at least hanging out in, an affluent neighborhood. Lawyers (legal (?) immigrant) as dishwashers. The country would be better if this became a trend. Imagine a lawyer doing honest work ... amazing.

     

    For this site I guess it is typical, but I find your "ire" short sighted and narrowly arrogant. Over the past 3 years, government has pumped $4T into this marketplace we participate in and likely benefit from in an effort to keep it from crashing like it should have if we really believed in "free markets". Another $12T has been pumped into the financial system of the USA, and another $20+T worldwide to support the $260T derivatives market to keep asset prices from being marked down like they should have if we really believed in Capitalism.

     

    Private profit, socialized risk. Is that welfare for the upper class? A lot of people in the lower 90% of the economy think so as well as myself. It fires up my ire to listen (read) the injustice of throwing the commoners a bone. The so-called job creators blew up the place and are presently doing so well they don't feel the need to participate or engage in societally beneficial activity.
    8 Oct 2011, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    DRich: I don't covet this argument one bit. But since you're going there with some pretty extreme comments, you have forced my whim.

     

    So let's get at it.

     

    >Mayascribe ... First let me congratulate you for living in, or at least hanging out in, an affluent neighborhood.

     

    Check (though I sense a mockingness or some form of weird envy in this comment). I do live in an affluent zip code. But home sheriff's sales are occurring here, too. Even right in my own community of 32 condos, one is up for sheriff's sale; I learned three days after I bought my home; not good for the value of my home. Up the street, a humongous brick mansion is also heading for sheriff's sale. At least 10,000 square feet this place is. Also not good for my just purchased home.

     

    But you know what? Lot's of way more than million dollar homes are being built, than are in default, within a mile or two of where I live. Talk about cross-currents...on the local level!

     

    --Lawyers (legal (?) immigrant) as dishwashers.

     

    Wanna make a bet on whether Gang Li is a legal citizen or not? He's been working where I hang my imbibing hat for at least 7 years. He's real, a great guy, smart, and has the work papers to prove it. You are challenging me. Don't appreciate this out of nowhere effrontery challenge one bit, especially because it's more about whether or not I write fact, or just blog to blog. Not a good move. In fact, it's borderline, "Troll-ish."

     

    It's a garbage accusation. You are better than that. You've seen what I have written in the Axion Concentrator, and here, and you should know better.

     

    Next!

     

    --The country would be better if this became a trend. Imagine a lawyer doing honest work ... amazing.

     

    Totally agree. And my dishwashing friend would also totally agree.

     

    --For this site I guess it is typical, but I find your "ire" short sighted and narrowly arrogant. Over the past 3 years, government has pumped $4T into this marketplace we participate in and likely benefit from in an effort to keep it from crashing like it should have if we really believed in "free markets". Another $12T has been pumped into the financial system of the USA, and another $20+T worldwide to support the $260T derivatives market to keep asset prices from being marked down like they should have if we really believed in Capitalism.

     

    Why would you ever write this? I'm confused. And why am I being "arrogant?" You went off on some rant that was not relative to my point, which is that I'm amazed that Obama's Job Plan has more money being spent toward KEEPING people unemployed, than CREATING jobs.

     

    The trillions here and there are what angers me greatly. Our idiotic "oversight" leaders let this derivative, and bundles of sub-prime, credit default swap derivatives, times 30 sneak right under their, or rather our taxpaying noses. Thanks to our political leaders bi-partisan repeal of the Glass-Steagle Act during the Clinton administration. Again, a bi-partisan repeal! Who the eff was in charge when this occurred? In my opinion, and indeed this may be arrogant and overtly punitive, but I believe what Wall Street and the a-holes who would rather keep their elected jobs, than look out for their own country, and what the financial holocaust they allowed to occur, should be a public hanging offense.

     

    I'd be eating Twizzlers while watching these bastards twist in the wind.

     

    Outrageous? Yes. But when a person goes to jail for stealing a bra strap, and yet those who stole billions from us taxpayers gets off, in fact gets rewarded through coerced government subsidy, alah TARP, well...that pisses me off. That raises my "ire."

     

    That's not arrogant. That is a fact (emotionally put, I'll add).

     

    --Private profit, socialized risk. Is that welfare for the upper class? A lot of people in the lower 90% of the economy think so as well as myself. It fires up my ire to listen (read) the injustice of throwing the commoners a bone. The so-called job creators blew up the place and are presently doing so well they don't feel the need to participate or engage in societally beneficial activity.

     

    What exactly, does this paragraph insinuate? Please evince. It reads that the job-creators are to blame? That's complete horseshit! Because what would our country be without private sector, ambitious people who create jobs? Honestly, I don't get that comment at all. Who the hell is going to create jobs? You are totally out of touch with reality if you think that the private sector job creators are the ones to blame. Of course, if you want the public sector to create jobs...so we taxpayers can pay for those jobs...I throw my hands into the air to this kind of thinking (pretty sure you did not infer this, but what you wrote is well...nebulous at best).

     

    I'm incredulous towards this kind of thinking. And I'm quite baffled you charged at me the way you did. Do not blame me that I worked my butt off, was an employer of some 70 people, to become...merely somewhat affluent.

     

    I was a job creator. That you are attacking job creators like I was, leaves me baffled.
    9 Oct 2011, 02:04 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    DRich wrote --Private profit, socialized risk. Is that welfare for the upper class? A lot of people in the lower 90% of the economy think so as well as myself. It fires up my ire to listen (read) the injustice of throwing the commoners a bone. The so-called job creators blew up the place and are presently doing so well they don't feel the need to participate or engage in societally beneficial activity.

     

    Here, I believe, Drich has a point. We cut taxes for the big job creators almost ten years ago. Obama extended those cuts last year. When everyone is so quick to point out how the stimulus has not worked , why are those same people not willing to admit that the tax cuts have not exactly brought about a plethora of new employment either. I think the question of where are all these job creators are, is an extremely valid question.
    10 Oct 2011, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    There have been tax increases, not tax cuts... The gains from the tax cuts did, indeed come to pass - back when Bush installed them. A decade later, they are just "tax rates". Those who saw a bad outcome for the expiration of what are now builtin tax rates, in favor of higher taxes, were correct - whatever "recovery" we enjoyed has been because wiser heads prevailed.

     

    Now, if we truly want to see job creation, tax cuts WOULD be one way to go about getting them, though I am actually in favor of installing a national retail sales tax (aka FairTax) and tossing the 16th Amendment and the Federal Income Tax and assorted other Federal taxes at the same time, with the numbers designed to be revenue neutral. Gains for everyone would flow from the more efficient system rather than monkeying with rates...
    10 Oct 2011, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    You are correct but when in 2001-02 those cuts were coming off of a 1990's economic boom, they did not carry from my perspective an economic benefit, since you can assume we had the "boom" and balanced budget in the 90's with "higher taxes" in place.

     

    I, of course, like your FairTax. Corporate and business taxes need to be cut but I have never witnessed a economic benefit to lowering personal income taxes on the wealthy.
    10 Oct 2011, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    OIL, i had said that OPEC will move as prices are not of there liking .

     

    Saudi's make the first move and i assume when the UN results come out an US dollars may slow they all will cut. Chavez has been making overtures and his Chinasale prices are low.And, the rumblings across OPECs group continue

     

    http://on.wsj.com/ok8Gk6
    9 Oct 2011, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    Here's an article suggesting a market rally into the EOY, but not for economic reasons. It's the "window dressing" effect again that the author counts on. If he's correct, it ought to be more powerful than the "window dressing" we just ended since this one is the EOY one, which is more important to take-home pay.

     

    "The Case For A Q4 Rally"

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2011, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    (SPX) and related: Doing a little preliminary chart work.

     

    My previous early trends on the recent range had switched from an early indication of an uptrend to a down trend on 8/31. The resistance was from the top there to the top of 9/16 & 9/20.

     

    The resistance had a negative slope of $2.263/day over that period and had a support line from the low of 9/6 to 9/12 (admittedly a *very* short period) that had the same negative slope.

     

    Looking at recent tops, it's apparent that the negativity of the falling resistance has increased, so I've got a new resistance running from the high of 9/16 to the high of Friday 10/7.

     

    The change in slope is +43.435% (that is, ~43% *more* negative), now $3.244/day.

     

    The chart is becoming *more* bearish, short-term.

     

    This is reinforced, IMO, by the breaking of the rally in the last 30 minutes of trade Friday on very high and rising volume (using SPY to get a reading). However, it was "Fearful Friday" so I'm unsure how much weight to give this action.

     

    It's also interesting to note that we had 3 up days and a reversal as FPA had suggested in his instablog. The question now becomes what goes on next week, considering that we had some suggestions out of the EZ that appeared positive.

     

    Friday we did hit the $1170 area, making the third solid "touch" after the origin of the resistance line, and reversed to close at $1155.46, pretty much at the support areas suggested by the late September early October 2010 highs.

     

    The uncertainty is heightened by the fact that (TLT) has suffered four down days in a row even though "Twist" suggests that the Fed should be jacking the price up! There must be some fear in play beyond the normal "Fearful Friday" stuff going on here. And Friday we had both TLT and SPX down (albeit very late in the day) together.

     

    With the dollar strength shown this last month or so and the drop from $80+ to the $79.09 over the last few days I wouldn't have expected both treasuries and the market to both drop Friday.

     

    BTW, I just read an SA article from about a week ago saying TLT had 20% more upside potential. Hard to buy into that unless there's a lot more fear and a lot of "deflationistas" out there.

     

    Anyway, as to SPX support, that's harder for me to ascertain ATM. The big drop after "window dressing" ended caused a penetration of the old support line and there's not been enough time to see if the old line holds or a new one is needed. I make this judgment because I believe that penetration was anomalous in its depth and volume - likely not indicative of a trend yet, IMO.

     

    So I'm not changing that line yet even though I do see a *potential* for the lows of 9/12 and 10/4 to provide one. But there's a couple others as well that could be used.

     

    As I write this, the Sgxnifty charts show a strengthening dollar and SPX futures but it is really quite early yet.

     

    Asian markets are up but for the Shanghai, which is down 0.26% ATM. WHOOPS! ASX just went negative 0.11% from up 2%+. But still early.

     

    Most of the oscillators are not yet strongly suggestive of any direction and the current price is somewhat centered within the experimental (changed recently) 13 period Bollingers, so not a suggestion there either.

     

    Wrapping up, I believe we are near to breaking out of the trading range that we've been stuck in. Indications at ATM or biased downward. I think it will take a few days to develop and could be negated by all sorts of "less bad than expected" positive news.

     

    Futures ATM suggest ~$1165 but I'm sure that'll be different by the time the market opens tomorrow.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2011, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    HTL 1165. Take it.. Had held for something from Merkal and Sarkosy and b/sing about funding banks might give me that Monday gain ! luck ! Hope to get that stop in green on both FAS an UPRO...... Luck is what ya need.. pura vida, gb
    9 Oct 2011, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Jeff Miller's, "The Week Ahead," over on Global Economic Intersection, is becoming...has become one of my Sunday must reads (I only have two, and John Mauldin is the other).

     

    http://bit.ly/pPKhqi
    9 Oct 2011, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    So far it is all good. HSI fights back to green. Asia o/k and Europe mixed but up or close. US futures solid green.

     

    Gambled that Merkal an Sarkosy would try and do positive chatter. For the moment the US street believes.

     

    PS. Just took 11 on FAS..http://bit.ly/r8xOJt

     

    FAS in early pre @ 11 and no bids on UPRO... Have offer on UPRO. I don't like the chance that guidance going forwards my dampen things and turn things down. I would like to lock in and wait for a green open. When the first 1/2 hour passes go from there or go short with SPXU if selling starts and of course get my 20 cents ( 19 cent with discount) Stop in and try it again ,but, hopefully already at a new high.
    And, the YUAN accounts slightly creep higher and make a CNBC lead... http://bit.ly/nihyv4

     

    Happy Holiday and happy trading.. gb
    10 Oct 2011, 04:38 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    (SPX): GB has highlighted the early action subsequent to the latest EZ good news that all will be well by EOM. At this time, ~07:06 the futures are suggesting $1174-$1175, supported by the Sgxnifty USD chart tanking from the $79.09 we saw Friday to $78.22 ATM.

     

    (SPY) is trading right where the futures say they should - $117.50 (SPX ~$1175) ATM.

     

    But do be alert as we are right in the range where resistance has been seen (established by the lows during the 11/16-11/30/10 period) - so the market may display a lot of uncertainty through the day as some folks that bought, e.g., @ the SPX lows around $1075ish on 10/4 might decide ~10% gain in 1 week is sufficient and they shouldn't be greedy.

     

    OTOH, if en masse they can exercise a little restraint, the news from the EZ is perceived as really good and they might be able to get that $1220-$1225 range again.

     

    But that would be a little on the greedy side and "bears make money, bulls make money, but hogs get slaughtered" might kick in.

     

    Have we recently been in a "buy the rumor sell the news" environment? If so, this might be one of those "step 2" days.

     

    The interesting, to me, thing is that after just adjusting my trend lines, they could easily be broken to the upside and catch $1220 SPX again and then we're right back in the range it looked like we would be shortly exiting.

     

    All that wears me out - I'm going for java and a break.

     

    GLTA today - I might play "deer in the headlights" - who knows.

     

    All MHO,
    HardToLove
    10 Oct 2011, 07:33 AM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    Coffee breaks over. Didn't sell UPRO as no decent bids until futures moved higher ,but, why sell it then. Stop goes tight @ 9:30. good luck & got FAS back at 10.67.

     

    Why, Saw Europe get off the floor and move fast. I saw an offer. Snapped it up, 33 cent tidbit.

     

    Also,sent the group short term into BAC cropola for the day. @ 6 bucks in looking for a 6.50 day sale. Think Merkal & Sarkosy chatter holds Euro banks a few weeks an thus US banks with Euro exposure.

     

    Was thinking of MS as it fits and CDS costs DROP nicely, but, BAC is cheap for a day trade.

     

    Of interest... Huge call buys on AA ! I don't see good guidance !
    Most put buying on GE an PFE. Understand GE ,but, PFE,,strong dollar ?? gb
    10 Oct 2011, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    What has really changed since March?

     

    We know the Fed and the ECB will ultimately, in some fashion, create more currency. A lot more.

     

    When they do, markets will rally. However, at the rate they're printing currency (and/or manipulating bonds, backstopping banks, etc.), one could consider that a market rally may be merely keeping up with the rate of inflation created by their currency printing. Inflation can be a very good thing for stock market valuations, if not for the cost of living.

     

    Commodity prices from copper to gold to oil to wheat to sugar have pulled back recently. Are they still in a secular bull market after this bear cycle - why not? The more currency the central banks print, the more this stuff should cost.

     

    The alternate possibility... the market economy is finally functioning and destroying inefficient practices... which will lead to a global economic implosion there may be nowhere to hide from. Precious metals perhaps, but recent performance doesn't seem to guarantee them to be any better place to hide than anything else.

     

    There is likely someplace to land between absurd money-printing and total global economic implosion... but we'll need to import some different brains into the central banks first?

     

    So... has anything really changed? Are we still on our money printing glut trajectory? Or should we be playing R.E.M.'s "its the end of the world as we know it"?

     

    If the world has not really changed... we're about to have another inexplicable multi-month rally which will make everyone believe we can go on like this forever... again.

     

    If not... I better sell everything and go 100% short fast...
    10 Oct 2011, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    "Commodity prices from copper to gold to oil to wheat to sugar have pulled back recently. Are they still in a secular bull market after this bear cycle - why not? The more currency the central banks print, the more this stuff should cost."

     

    Check the third chart, late September forward, here for what I think are the cause for the weak prices. I'm of the opinion that without a stable USD we can't gauge anything based on the *prices* of commodities.

     

    I'm thinking the only way to do it might be volume of shipments and/or futures actions, excluding the price.

     

    As to money "printing", I'll give one to the Fed here - no, they're "Twisting".

     

    Now they are rolling out of short-term debt into long-term to try and influence the yield curve to the benefit of the U.S. debt-service costs and housing and ... That action, in and of itself, creates movement only in where the balance sheet assets reside but no new dollars.

     

    As a nice side-effect, it makes the equities market look relatively attractive, due to the dividends yield being well above what various treasuries and bonds are yielding even as we move out the yield curve.

     

    That will support market prices, short-term anyway, and that will (they think) have the desired psychological effect of providing economic stimulus. I don't know - the general level of ignorance about these, and other, sorts of manipulation is not as high as it used to be.

     

    The need for dollars by foreign CBs is being supported by "swaps", so again no new money from our side of the pond. I do think the other side will be doing some printing.

     

    "If the world has not really changed... we're about to have another inexplicable multi-month rally which will make everyone believe we can go on like this forever... again."

     

    I'm thinking the rally is the case, especially considering the AAR, and similar, reports for now. Add in the year-end bonus determinations will be made based how this year ends up (I posted a link earlier about that) ... "window dressing" of earlier start and longer duration?

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    10 Oct 2011, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    FAS gone 11.38 and UPRO gone 51.70

     

    I know now it will power higher, but, chicken little locked in 3 nice gainns and dumped BAC for 20 cents. ALL CASH ,, got 11Gs left settled, so, sniffing.................
    10 Oct 2011, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • golfitobob
    , contributor
    Comments (2346) | Send Message
     
    Just gave SPXU at shot 17.33 STOP at 17.14
    10 Oct 2011, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Maya:
    Any word of advice on TAMO? Still holding and wondering if I should just cut.
    10 Oct 2011, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • QuickChat
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    The new QC is ready.

     

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

     

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
    10 Oct 2011, 10:57 AM Reply Like
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