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  • QuickChat #264, October 24, 2013 556 comments
    Oct 24, 2013 2:50 PM

    October 24, 2013

    Here are 2 things which I have been tracking, looking for signs of mayhem... Conclusion thus far: Not yet, but the natives are restless.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1769822-credit-spreads-still-flashing-green

    (click to enlarge)

    "Wa'huhu" (the screech owl). Legendary warrior and ancestor (on my Mother's side). Neat and ancient reference in the tribe's folklore, "How Grandmother Spider Brought Fire to the People". The little Screech Owl was courageous but his large eyes were a weak point... Good story, I won't spoil it.

    Standing watch. Seemed appropriate, somehow. Headed to the Alabama Renaissance Festival this weekend in Florence, Alabama.

    Enjoy the new QC. Take care

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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Celtic Woman in the background, making art...

     

    Mood music for a Renaissance event.
    24 Oct 2013, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Very Nice Trip!
    24 Oct 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    OT unless you are invested in things that are affected by Obamacare.

     

    Two miuntes, the first 60 seconds about "If you like your plan you can keep it".

     

    Yeah, right! Their small pice list over 500K cancellations sent out!

     

    http://cnb.cx/1d3auEN

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2013, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Fantastic piece!

     

    Have a successful trip!

     

    In regards to your linked article, I agree, and remain very bullish for the remainder of this year. Just noticed that my Verizon shares have doubled since May 2010. Over the same stretch of time, AT&T is up about 50%.

     

    The debate of buy and hold goes on, as JCI is now back to where it was in 2007.

     

    Wells Fargo is about $8.00 per share higher than in 2007.

     

    However, GE still needs to go up about 50% to get back to 2007 levels (and needs to go up 100% before getting back to 2001 levels).

     

    A small sample I know, but....

     

    Wondering two things, if gold has bottomed, and if there will be a year end tax sell off chance to buy. But I'm reading forecasts here and there that have the S&P as much as 9% higher by the end of this year.
    24 Oct 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    I have contracted my planning horizon. More because of the nasty fog being emitted by governments around the globe than from anything specific I can nail down, and certainly not from backward-looking statistical analysis.

     

    I'm still thinking we see a growth pattern on the American Markets, though winners and losers are being chosen at seeming random by the Inside-the-Beltway lottery operating out of K Street.

     

    Geopolitical risk factors are looking ominous everywhere, though, and we could be looking at some nastiness in hot spots from SE Asia, to the ME, to Europe, to Africa, and even a forgotten area, South America...
    24 Oct 2013, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    TB: Greetings. Nice piece and have a good outing at the Renaissance Festival. I still have my holdings in Brazil (NETC) (VIV) and I'm looking at Panama. http://onforb.es/1gJJ6Ar I'm still looking at the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as a potential location for investment in Africa. That being said Africa seems to cary allot more risk than the Americas. Thoughts anyone?
    24 Oct 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    The DRC is a basket case, with a nominal head of state who controls little territory and none of it without proxy alliances. Graft, corruption, violence and tribal nepotism rule.

     

    HOWEVER -- what is contained in this country that spans the distance from San Francisco to Denver and Seattle to San Diego is so worthwhile that other players are now moving to secure locations on the DRC's periphery, to include "plans" to extend rail lines and even pipelines to those quasi-boundaries. China is already there, of course, but I'd be looking for South African firms that know the sub-Saharan rivalries and opportunities to be the biggest beneficiaries. No names yet because all my research thus far is geopolitical, not financial, but I see more success in nations with better governance and transparency. Even Angola qualifies. I'd look for the Botswanan, S African, Angolan, and maybe even Tanzanian firms that partner with deep-pocketed global powerhouses to be the early beneficiaries of DRC resource wealth.
    24 Oct 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Joseph L. Shaefer: Greetings. Thank you for your input and well met sir. I haven't spoken with you for some time and I'm glad to hear from you. I concur with your assessment of the DRC which is one of the reasons I haven't allocated any capital for Africa. There are others of course. I have as noted above already allocated funds in Brazil and I'm just starting research for Panama. Have you looked into Panama at all? Once again thank you for your input it's always of great value to me.
    24 Oct 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    And a pleasure to be back in conversation with you, sir. Because of my travels, I don't check in as often as I'd like with my friends here in Gadesland, but its always educational when I do.

     

    My bias against Panama needs to be "re-thunk." It stems from my military / intel experiences there which may now be dated by too many years; at that time, Panama had lousy governance and transparency. Indeed, it was a porous trans-shipment point for narco-traffickers and what the locals called "shotgun buildings" were large condominiums and apartments you could have shot a shotgun into and never hit anyone. They were massive structures designed to launder narco-money.

     

    I'll be there next month, though only for a day before transiting the canal; I can at least keep my eyes and ears open. And my good friend Vivian Lewis, who specializes in global securities, really likes Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior (Bladex -- BLX, NYSE.) She does her homework well, but you should know BLX is a global, rather than a purely Panamanian, bank...
    24 Oct 2013, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (895) | Send Message
     
    When my wife and I visited Panama 5 or 6 years ago, we were surprised that nearly every North American we met was looking at buying property there. We could see the beginning of the Canal widening efforts. Was surprised w/ the cleanliness of Panama City and how the buildings & roads we built were still in good condition -- we built stuff right.
    I went to elementary school in the Canal Zone. We could see the ships passing by. Sure wish we had never left. Hoping to go back soon. Amazing skyscrapers nowadays -- what a change!
    25 Oct 2013, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    Nice to hear, ungawah. I'm hoping those skyscrapers are now filled with locals and Norte Americano expats rather than simply being built for $500,000 per unit (really) but "claimed" as $1.5 million cost per unit -- the way the narcos used to launder dirty money for clean in (then) wink-wink-nudge-nudge Panama. I'm looking forward to my return next month as well!
    25 Oct 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (895) | Send Message
     
    Copa Airlines w/ start flying to Panama out of Tampa next month. CPA up 55% YTD.

     

    I think Panama City has become the banking center for Latin America. Lots of money from Venezuela got moved there.

     

    Some narco money? Yeah, probably.

     

    Just back from a 3 week cruise - my late response.
    18 Nov 2013, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1886) | Send Message
     
    Ungawah -- I like (CPA) also for a lot of reasons -- including 99% institutional long term ownership. One thing that's kept me away is the low volume liquidity on US exchanges.

     

    I, too, think Panama is in a sweet spot for international commerce. After conducting business there many times, I was struck by the relatively high level of education of a population with strong English language skills. Thanks for the call out.
    mj
    18 Nov 2013, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    (LINE): Oddity: after a general down trend from ~10:10 onward today,
    15:56-15:59 had a large sell-off, not so much in price, but in volume.

     

    15:55 closed at $28.33. 15:56-15:59 volume was ~131K and closed at $28.10.

     

    15:59 closed with 1,424,663 volume for the day, ~45.3% were "buys" (hit the ask) for the day. This is not an excessively low ratio - in a fairly normal range from the.short time I've observed this equity

     

    Then a cascade down began and so far, through 16:25, pps has dropped to $27.70.

     

    Through 16:25 ~5K were "buys" and 19.6K were sells, last price then was $27.70. Volume since 15:59 is 25,590 - larger than normal AH volume.

     

    Look for a gap-down open tomorrow? I haven't seen any news. This behavior is quite unusual for LINE recently. Maybe a news leak?

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Yikes! Amazing EOD selling pressure. Millions of $s traded just short of the bell.

     

    Every time I think LINE is on the heal, my third eye gets another worry line running through it.

     

    Incredulous as to why this late day sell off occurred.

     

    24 Oct 2013, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    10K from Berry this afternoon...

     

    Whisper on the street is that the numbers are too good for the LINE deal, and Berry is likely to back out and shop their deal.

     

    Look at the 2 charts. Berry shot up as LINE went down.
    24 Oct 2013, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    IF the whisper is bs (and I'm thinking right now that it is) this is actually good news for LINE.
    24 Oct 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    Trip ... May you enjoy the festival as much as I enjoyed the artwork! Wonderful talent.

     

    Re - article on credit spreads. Perhaps foolishly, I tend to think U.S. economic growth will continue and accelerate IF the Obamacare individual mandate is pushed back to 2015 or the legislation is significantly re-worked within the next 30 days. Otherwise, I look for seasonal Christmas sales to disappoint. Anecdotal reports of medical insurance premium increases for the coming year are sobering. If representative at all, large numbers of people will be shelling out hundreds and thousands more for health insurance policies with higher deductibles than they have paid in the past. Some people, OTOH, will see a decline in their premiums and others will be awarded subsidies to lower their insurance costs. But, the cost of adding mandatory coverage for mental health care, prescription drugs, birth control pills, maternity care, previously existing conditions, etc. will be paid for mostly by
    the in-kind tax levied by insurance purchase mandate (or "fines"/"fees" for non-purchase).
    24 Oct 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Well...after hours LINE is down another 43 cents, down $1.04 for the day. <sigh>

     

    Yes, the Berry 10K was really good, which should be viewed well by both LINE and LinnCo investors, trip.

     

    Wondering if the Oct 22, fifth time summited Form S-4 to the SEC regarding the merger has anything to do with it. Because once the SEC approves it, then the Berry shareholders can vote to make the deal happen, or not. With the great 10K, Berry holders may choose not to approve the merger.

     

    Of course, historically, LINE funds such purchases with 50% of borrowing, and 50% via a cap raise. So this may be the big boyz getting out of the way, or worse, they are back at it hard again, shorting LINE.

     

    Lots of speculation going on....
    24 Oct 2013, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Short interest has been rising again since the 9/13 short report - up ~800K.

     

    http://bit.ly/lZsZ6X

     

    HardToLOve
    25 Oct 2013, 06:46 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    Shorting could again be in play as you suggest, and the Berry shareholder vote though could have some legs. It occurs that another possible (perhaps low order) consideration for some investors (prospective buyers) could be absence of report on recent financial performance of LINE/LNCO and effect of that cost on current distributions. There is an information void between LINE/LNCO and Berry, one that occurs at an awkward time for the merger. AND, sentiment might be influenced by other partnerships and companies announcing increased distributions to shareholders.

     

    In my own portfolion, LNCO was down ($.42) today while MWE was up $.29 and PDH up $.75 following increased distribution announcements.
    24 Oct 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Pennwest Energy (PWE) has started it's seasonal climb. If you were buying in the $8.XX range for the last two years it's game on for LT profit taking around $14. If not there may still be time to grab some nickels out from under the steam roller. LOL.
    24 Oct 2013, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    (NETC) is changing hands again. http://yhoo.it/1hgei8l
    A 7.3 magnitude earth quake has hit Japan near the crippled Fukushima power plant. http://fxn.ws/1a5B0ZB
    25 Oct 2013, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Ripoff Report. A website dedicated to documenting scams, frauds, and scam artists:

     

    http://bit.ly/1a7KVh1

     

    (Good to have bookmarked if you want to look into some flyer that touts 1000% gains! I got one this week from Tobin Smith promoting (NAMG).
    26 Oct 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >Maya-
    Thanks for that link. Some good material in there.

     

    WT
    28 Oct 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1c7LjQ6

     

    Michelle Obama Princeton classmate a senior V-P of CGI Federal, the company awarded a NO-BID contract to build the Healthcare.gov website.
    26 Oct 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... You are desperate. CGI Federal is only one of 47 contracting firms working on the healthcare web site. This so last week. Move along to the campaign contributions. That huge sum of $2000 USD or maybe that $5500 USD contribution to the other guy.
    26 Oct 2013, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    LOL, 48 companies building a web site? No wonder it was a colossal disastor. Also, no wonder there was a link to the WH. With that sort of army involved, the surprise would be if they managed NOT to have a connection of some kind.

     

    In the sophomoric tit for tat that passes for political intrigue nowadays, it's a foregone conclusion that any such discovery will be a headline - and would certainly have been so in any of the past administrations since JFK.

     

    This is just business as usual, sad though that might be.
    26 Oct 2013, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Sadly, anxiously, I'm independently insured, and am expecting any week now to be one of the unfortunate millions that receive a letter from a health care provider, that I'm being canceled.

     

    Eldest sister in town from Ohio. Yesterday, she asked me, while I was going through a stack of snail mail, if I had received such a letter, and stated that some of her retired friends in Ohio, have already had insurance companies cancel policy renewals.

     

    "I don't know," I answered my sis. "Could be right in this stack of mail."

     

    Of course, back in 2009, Voldemorte promised ME! that I would be able to keep my insurance provider, which is turning out to be another one of his horsesh$t ACA covenants gone astray.

     

    92% chance I will have many rants forthcoming.
    26 Oct 2013, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    Desperate is an appropriate characterization of progressive liberal promoters of the ACA who are now finding 1) their economic stupidity on marque display and 2) that "it's Bush's fault" no longer plays in Peoria (or anywhere else).

     

    As to "CGI Federal is only one of 47 contracting firms working ... ", multiple news sources have reported that Canadian firm was/is responsible for the healthcare.gov website. If there are 47 contracting firms working on the site, a look at just what each firm is responsible for would make an interesting profile to read. And, placement of a politically well connected firm in a lead, controlling position would go a long ways in explaining the reported government latitude to require just a few weeks ahead of public debut that the system determine eligibility for premium subsidy or medicaid before disclosure of premiums on policy offerings. If there are 47 contracting firms working on the site, a look at just what each firm is responsible for would make an interesting profile to read.

     

    The best thing about "Obamacare" implementation IMO is that is is precipitating end of Obama's "teflon Ron" period and bring public perception of Obama's credibility in line with reality.
    27 Oct 2013, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    Maya ... Some reports I have read note that ACA requires cancellation of all policies first issued after passage of the ACA (some point in 2009) without coverages mandated in ACA. The number of policies issued before 2009 that have been, or will be, cancelled is not clear. It is a certainty that some pre-2009 policies have been cancelled due to insurer decisions to exit the medical insurance market. It is also certain that insurance policy premiums AND deductibles have increased, not decreased as touted by Democrats in marketing the legislation, and lower cost policies compliant with ACA coverage mandates expose policy holders to catastrophic medical costs where policies previously held typically capped policy holder exposure.
    26 Oct 2013, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Calabria article makes some solid points against the equity bubble argument: http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Of particular interest was the graph illustrating SP values adjusted for inflation - with the peak occurring in 2000. We are still operating far below this peak, and even this number needs to be extended to add the organic growth factor (our population has grown a great deal since 2000).

     

    I peg our current SP at about 22 percent short of a new high.
    27 Oct 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >tripleblack ... Interesting take on correlation but I'm not buying in because it is a little too simplistic. To directly compare the S&P to just on aspect of freight, tonnage, is to disregard the economic value of it in favor of just pure weight. One observation in the article, " ... sectors ... that are growing fastest, ... construction, auto ... , and energy output. These industries produce heavier than average freight, which leads to faster growth in tonnage versus a load or shipment measure.", doesn't support the thesis because there is little increase in jobs, permits, capex ... general economic activity that this increased weight implies.

     

    The other thing that bothers me and seems simplistic is the S&P itself. Back in 2000, before the crash, the rise was fueled with far more participants using less leverage (10:1) from privately supplied funds chasing the perception of future economic activity. Today the S&P is supported by far fewer participants using much more leverage (40:1) from publicly provided funds (FED & lower effective tax rates) to accumulate assets (in the form of cash, commodities, infrastructure, etc) with a minimum of economic activity & risk.
    27 Oct 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    "sectors ... that are growing fastest, ... construction, auto ... , and energy output. These industries produce heavier than average freight, which leads to faster growth in tonnage versus a load or shipment measure."

     

    Actually, DR, the correlation of "heavier than average freight" to diverse economic activity is probably pretty strong. Behind a truck load of new autos stands a host of manufacturing jobs at the auto OEMs and their supplier networks. Economic activity behind a truck load of oil/gas equipment and/or supplies is perhaps more broad but also more variable with effects ranging from heavy industrial manufacturing (truck OEMs, diesel engine OEMs, tubular steel manufacturing, structural steel) to mining (drilling, light construction, well completion services) to trucking (lots of drivers). Still, to your point, trucking plus rail tonnage would likely exhibit stronger correlation.
    27 Oct 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Calafia presents a very cohesive and comprehensive look at many factors in his body of work. This is just one of them. Other articles going back have demonstrated a good predictive value, but only the individual can judge their personal situation.

     

    Weight is indeed just a vague, single factor, which should be viewed with many others, some of which look at a wide variety of factors. I was pointing also to the overall SP inflation weighted charting, which is oddly lacking in most analysis and discussion about any current bubble.

     

    Looking solely at the correlation in the charts of truck tonnage and macro economic activity, it does have a place in the analytical process, but is not sufficient to reach any final conclusion, IMO.

     

    My personal process includes many factors, such as rail and ocean shipping figures, which combined with trucking yields a more comprehensive macro picture.

     

    But I believe Calafia is addressing this short article to the bubble topic rather than a more complete macro analysis.
    28 Oct 2013, 05:11 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    Good read. Thanks, trip.
    27 Oct 2013, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    The labor participation rate has always been a key indicator for me. If I had a choice between that and any other ONE indicator it would be that one. It tells me where the source for purchasing capability lies and what the REAL strength of the economy is. I consider it as a leading indicator for the market.

     

    Take all your other employment data and toss it to the wind- Most of it is fabricated to suit an agenda.

     

    http://bit.ly/1hlPVGj

     

    WT

     

    Hope you don't find too many errors- doing this on an iPad on a beach in Kauai
    27 Oct 2013, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >Windwood Trader ... I'll not argue that the Labor Participation Rate is as good an indicator as any for the Real economy, but the point here is correlation to the rising S&P and by implication for how much further it has to go accordingly. A rising S&P with a lowering LPR is a relative inverse and the LPR is hard to calculate a bottom for.

     

    I just think the tonnage of freight is a poor indicator because it generates some economic activity on the back-end but doesn't show up in many indicators with the LPR being one more. I can't see the correlation overshadowing things like 40:1 leverage, ZERP, $3.5T USD in share buyback, bond/asset reallocation and other things I consider move influential to what moves the S&P and have little bearing on the Real economy you might be watching. I'd put my correlation attention on the 10 year treasury or Euro-Dollar or Yen-Dollar to predict the range of any continued run on the S&P as try to gauge it by any real economic activity indicator.
    27 Oct 2013, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >DRich-
    I will agree that the E/D and the Y/D are good MARKET predictors, if by default if nothing else.
    Having said that I believe that the Delta in tonnage of freight from month to month or qtr to qtr may be a worthwhile predictor of overall economic activity and where it's going.

     

    Intuitively I just find the S&P PE to be a bit unjustifiable. No?

     

    WT
    28 Oct 2013, 12:47 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    WT: If the PE figures and charting don't include inflation weighting, the comparisons and conclusions may be faulty. Including this factoring in whatever other predictive metric is used raises the odds of success a great deal.
    28 Oct 2013, 05:20 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    "doing this on an iPad on a beach in Kauai "

     

    Braggart!

     

    Wish I were there ;-)
    28 Oct 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >TB-

     

    Agree w/inflation weighting butt don't find a source for such- would be good I'm sure.
    28 Oct 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >SHB-

     

    The glare, the glare- Can' t se what I've written! Too much Sun-

     

    Too many unclad beauties running around providing distractions.

     

    Awful place!
    28 Oct 2013, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    WT, salary stagnation or decreases compared to inflation add to a miserable participation rate to magnify the problem even more. Less folks working AND making less money = NOT GOOD!!!!
    28 Oct 2013, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >doubleguns ... That is not a very Capitalist sentiment expressed there. I tend to agree with it but still ...
    28 Oct 2013, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >DG-
    With 70% of the GDP coming from consumer consumption it's no wonder we haven't seen a more dramatic increase in growth.

     

    The BernankeBucks that went to the FatCat TBTF did little for the economy. If it only half of it had gone to job creation we would be looking like happy campers now. That's not socialist dogma it is what's real, what history bears out, IMHO.
    29 Oct 2013, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >Windwood Trader ... Bernanke has told Congress, at least 3 times that I'm aware of, that he has done, and continues to do, what he can. It is the fiscal side of the economy to make use of the money he has pumped into the system. That means ... taxi it away from the closed-loop banking system and put it to work in what is laughingly referred to as the "Real Economy".
    29 Oct 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    You are right, DR. It really does not do much good for anyone but the 2Bigs if all we do is give them zirp, have them then deposit it as reserves with the Fed, and draw interest...

     

    Its like a chicken farmer losing chickens from some virus taking the medicine and force feeding it to his chickens which have already died.
    29 Oct 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >tripleblack ... I wish just putting on deposit as reserve was all they are doing with. I'd be happy with that. Instead, large amounts of bad private debt are being handed over the you & me ... asset laundering. I could go on talking purely economics but I won't. Still this is getting close to the end of the Supply Side theory, misapplied to certain people's advantage, that even Uncle Milty wouldn't agree with.

     

    Me, I'll wait until next time and hope that an actual Keynesian solution is applied.
    29 Oct 2013, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Yes, the money is well mired in the $carry trade as well. And the now firmly entrenched process of transforming 2Big risk into public responsibility shows no signs of abating. Other than the more imaginative excesses of particularly corrupt episodes of Fascism, its hard to find a historic source for this concept. Laying it at the feet of someone like Keynes is neither fair nor accurate.

     

    As for a Keynes plan, none have really applied the WHOLE plan (which has some very solid requirements for government to accumulate surpluses with which to supply the ammo for later stimulus cycles). Given that Keynes began to incorporate more free market aspects in his later thinking, its really pretty sad that his name has joined the ranks of many once perfectly useful terms now rendered moot through abuse and distortion. I would be interested in setting up a system that created a successful economy and the called-for surpluses, LOL, at which time we could hold some interesting discussions about how to use those surplus monies.

     

    I have never believed that any economic system is necessarily a synonym for a system of governance, but instead should be no more than a subsystem within the system of governance.

     

    As for my personal outlook as to the future prospects, I will hope that there is no next time for the current abuses, and that we somehow find our way out of the abyss.
    29 Oct 2013, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >TB-

     

    I have to wonder what if Clinton did NOT agree to deregulate the financial industry before he left office what the outcome may have been at this point in time.

     

    Paraphrasing what he said to Rubin at the recommendation,

     

    'You mean to tell me my legacy will be determined by a bunch of bond salesmen?'

     

    (Graphic language omitted)

     

    WT
    29 Oct 2013, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Clinton just continued a long-running process (his decision was "down hill" from those of many prior administrations), so I would hesitate to single him out. Its true that he did have an inflection point in his hands, and a questionable adviser in Rubin (I am not one of the man's admirers, of course). This is one of those areas where I think few Presidents really have any grasp of the topic, and rely most heavily upon advice.

     

    Just as questionable is the series of decisions made by Bush, with equally questionable advice.

     

    As is often the case when examining the basic differences between Demican or Republicrat policies, this is a "blending" area where the two groups are more notable for their similarities than their differences.
    30 Oct 2013, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    >WT: You lie, sir!

     

    I lived on Oahu for 4 years in the 1957-61 period. Nice weather :-)

     

    I wasn't old enough to appreciate the mobile scenery.
    30 Oct 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    SHB: '59-'61.

     

    Wahiawa near Schofield barracks (dad was Army).

     

    Good surfing in reach of our bicycles and weather not so great in the winter - lots of rain.

     

    *Expensive* - good thing I was too young to have to pay for anything.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Oct 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    One of the best, if not perhaps the best of all forward indicators, believe it or not, is how many corrugated boxes are being fabricated.

     

    Consumerism drives the economy, and most things shipped to households and businesses, arrive in a corrugated box. Follow how well manufacturers of corrugated cardboard are doing, will essentially give you an idea of how the economy is doing.

     

    Note: There is a huge increase in bubble sleeve packaging, and I haven't yet looked into who makes these kinds of packaging, but I bet it parallels corrugated packaging, and also is on the rise.
    28 Oct 2013, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... Cramer makes the same observation.
    28 Oct 2013, 07:36 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    Could that not be simply more internet sales as opposed to paper bag and plastic bags used at the brick and mortar stores? It just seems to be a reality of the internet sales but I have never checked it out to see for sure.
    28 Oct 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >doubleguns ... It is a metric that is many decades older than the Internet.
    28 Oct 2013, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    So my question is has it become obsolete. Technology is very disruptive.
    30 Oct 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Steve Hansen make a point about economic growth, as indicated by changes in US imports. Interesting data point.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    28 Oct 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Any thoughts on the 7% jump in (CPST) ?

     

    HTL?
    28 Oct 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    SHB: there was a positive WSJ article last week. I assume it'll do like others and draw a lot of $ in before starting to behave normally.

     

    Might not take as long to do some re-trace: the shorters lick their chops on CPST when this sort of pop happens.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: BTW, short interest has been increasing recently.
    EDIT2: http://on.wsj.com/1akHxWa
    28 Oct 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Anybody else pondering what happens to the markets when tapering actually begins and our new all-time high leverage of 40:1 must be unwound?

     

    I'm shopping for parachutes!

     

    HardToLove
    28 Oct 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Well HTL, the insider selling continues to ramp, while insider buying continues to slump....

     

    --Insider buying decreased sharply with insiders purchasing $14.71 million of their stock last week compared to $75.98 million in the week prior. Selling increased with insiders selling $1.09 billion of stock last week compared to $729.32 million in the week prior.

     

    Sell/Buy Ratio: The insider Sell/Buy ratio is calculated by dividing the total insider sales in a given week by total insider purchases that week. The adjusted ratio for last week went up to 74.57.In other words, insiders sold more than 74 times as much stock as they purchased. The Sell/Buy ratio this week compares unfavorably with the prior week, when the ratio stood at 9.6.
    28 Oct 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >HTL-

     

    Re: "Anybody else pondering what happens to the markets when tapering actually begins and our new all-time high leverage of 40:1 must be unwound?"

     

    I was wondering about that as well but I guess I just assumed that the fed would always come to the rescue, just like in the story books.

     

    I believe in the Tooth Fairy, also.

     

    WT
    28 Oct 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Taken at a macro level, I consider insider selling OR buying a very undependable predictive method. With so many corporate insiders drawing the bulk of their income from profit sharing and options, including exit events and hiring events, the selling should heavily outweigh the buying (which after all never includes option awards or profit sharing, so its a very lopsided equation at best).

     

    I like to keep it on the radar sceen for individual companies, where it can be tied to individuals and specific corporate situations, but as a much larger scale indicator, I find it far too random in behavior.

     

    The last time I reviewed it with a thought to using it as a predictive tool, I reviewed the immediate runup prior to the Great Recession and the financial meltdown. It really didn't prove anything except that the world was caught by surprise and there was strong selling AFTER the cows escaped the barn.
    28 Oct 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Re: Insider trading activity-

     

    I agree with trading activity not being a productive tool EXCEPT when such activity occurs within 5-10 days prior to an earnings announcement. Activity at that point may indicate a surprise coming, one way or the other with commensurate insider pre-release activity.

     

    I know, they wouldn't ever think of doing such a thing!

     

    WT
    28 Oct 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >HTL-

     

    A flash from the past-

     

    "http://seekingalpha.co..."

     

    WT
    28 Oct 2013, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Good points all around, trip.

     

    The major seller this last week was... "Carl C. Icahn sold 5,527,433 shares of health information services provider for $32.08, generating $177.32 million from the sale.

     

    It is interesting to see Carl Icahn sell half his stake in Netflix and his full stake in WebMD within days of each other."

     

    Wondering if Icahn is plowing his money into Apple.
    28 Oct 2013, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    In this specific instance:

     

    Netflix is probably past its peak and heading down (competition is heating up, too).

     

    As for health care...

     

    Its a phrase which is becoming the latest in a long string of oxymorons.

     

    As for plowing the money into Apple...

     

    Could be. The new product pipeline is not what caught my attention there, so much as the dramatic move to start including free OS upgrades with the hardware purchase. Quite a shot across Microsoft's bow, that...

     

    Apple is probably the ONLY such hardware manufacturer who could do this, given their brand recognition and high profit margins. HP and Dell (who of course don't create their own OS anyway) cannot compete even if their balance sheets cold stand it, which they cannot.
    28 Oct 2013, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Re: Apple-
    Thanks, Trip-

     

    Not only the OS upgrades but Pages and Numbers at no charge as well. Used to be $10.00 each for iPad and iPhone. Might well be a shot at the Microsoft Office wheelhouse itself this time.
    29 Oct 2013, 02:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    WWT: "But in its inimitable, punitive style, the Congress avoids its own well-documented culpabilities; instead, it introduces Rube Goldberg-type reforms or prefers to focus on employee compensation, or when that issue fades, the repeal of Glass-Steagall, the reddest of herrings".

     

    But for the "repeal of Glass-Steagall", which I'm uncertain about and about which the author *might* be biased, a great truthful closing line.

     

    Good article - thanks for that!

     

    HardToLove
    29 Oct 2013, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    TB: Apple has another advantage in the free OS upgrade arena: the foundation is BSD UNIX - an open source product that receives huge support that costs Apple much less than if it was proprietary.

     

    Even the roll-out of upgrades is automated, to a great degree.

     

    Microsoft, and anybody tied to them, has a slightly more expensive model for sure.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Oct 2013, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    WT: Greetings. That really is the joker in the deck. Right now the $85B or so a month is propping up the exchanges. They wouldn't have been anywhere near this level without QEXXXXXXX. When it does come to an end as all things must the truly broken nature of this economic collapse and the poor policy decisions which followed will be truly felt. I'm with HTL on this one. Look out below the fall will likely be far and fast!
    29 Oct 2013, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Robert- Agree with your take. All those BB Bucks keep markets bubbling away- As you said, look out below IF it ever stops- could be a real ugly weaning process...........if it stops, that is.
    29 Oct 2013, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    Just so you know, Microsoft offered a free upgrade from Windows 8 to Windows 8.1.
    It is a nail in the coffin to the PC industry that these upgrades to operating systems are now becoming freebies, imo. They used to be profit centers.
    29 Oct 2013, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    Hi OG,
    8.1 is like the service packs that MS put out for XP, Vista and Win7.
    3 service packs for XP alone.
    30 Oct 2013, 02:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Correct, SD. These band aids have been commonly free (as well they should be, since they are just fixes for problems which should NOT have been in the expensive product you just purchased). True upgrades with new content have been differentiated primarily by the high cost.

     

    Apple has yet to fully implement the new policy shift into marketing terms, but once those ads hit the market...

     

    It will have an immediate effect.

     

    Apple's recent strength in the desktop and laptop markets (they have doubled their market share in these sectors over the past few years, although starting from a low percentage of course) will be supported and market share gains can be anticipated.

     

    There is no infrastructure to support wintel hardware with the same sort of free software philosophy. HP flirted with departing the desktop and laptop markets not long ago, and this could push them back in that direction. Dell will take some major lumps. Both are likely to be the ones losing market share which Apple gains.
    30 Oct 2013, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    I am been anticipating that Apple would start to wield its potent brand name as a marketing weapon of mass destruction...

     

    The strong rumors about initiatives into TVs is just the first such case. Other areas ripe for them:

     

    Printers, ink, and toners (buy Kodak?)
    Cameras and video gear (buy Kodak?)
    Book tablets (a natural move down market as Amazon encroaches up market)
    Auto electronics (powerful little Apple logo on a Lincoln hybrid?)
    Audio
    AppleFlix (adjunct to ITunes)

     

    and so on...
    30 Oct 2013, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    Re: Windows 8.1 is not merely a service pack to work out bugs. It has significant upgrades which were written about extensively last summer. In the old days, it would have cost ya, the same way upgrading old Mac systems would cost ya.
    On a personal note, I upgraded to 8.1 and it's still a challenge.
    30 Oct 2013, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    WT, I have a question as a relatively new Apple user (I run Parallels VM to keep using my Word, Excel, Publisher, etc.)
    I'd like to tryPages but when I hit the Apple Store it's listed at $20. Given the very mixed reviews there, for free all I'm wasting is a half hour to see if I like it; at $20, I'm depriving myself of a bottle of Michael Collins AND wasting a half hour... :-)
    Where do I find it for free?
    30 Oct 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    TB: Greetings. As you may recall several months ago I totaled my car and as a result purchased a brand new 2013 Ford Focus with all the bells and whistles. It has Synch and a number of other things with Microsoft logoes everywhere. Your new Lincoln would probably have Microsoft not Apple logos.
    8 Nov 2013, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Oh Lordy Robert! You surely remember the old jokes about what would happen if Microsoft designed and built your car don't you? ;-))

     

    http://bit.ly/uEdStu~hoaglund/microsft.html

     

    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Joe-
    Re: Pages

     

    When I got my new iPhone a couple of weeks ago it was in the Apps listing as free. It May be since I just got the new phone, an i5 with OS7 as an immediate upgrade. I am also registered as an iWorks (Includes Pages, Numbers, A presentation program and a database) purchaser a few years ago for the iMac but I believe that is independent. I have not attempted to link documents from the iMac to my phone since I use Apple Cloud so everything is already synced. I believe the OS 7 is the key- Pages and Numbers were available free when I upgraded to OS7 on the iPad as well. There may be more but have not investigated.

     

    WT

     

    Sorry to take so long to answer- Been traveling with sporadic connectivity.
    8 Nov 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    FWIW-

     

    I had purchased a Galaxy 4 a few weeks ago. Played with it a bit and returned it for a refund. Every time I moved to a different app Google wanted my address list, location and just happened to provide me with a few dozen adds as well before I could use my app.

     

    Nooooooooo thanks!

     

    WT
    8 Nov 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the reply, sir! I know that "sporadic connectivity" problem too well when I travel to some of the off-the-beaten-track destinations I visit for ideas...
    11 Nov 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >Joe-

     

    Re: Microsoft Word and Apple Pages

     

    This in the NY Times a few days back, around Thanksgiving-

     

    http://nyti.ms/1eArB0E

     

    Might be worth a look.

     

    WT
    30 Nov 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    A Linn win! Up 49 cents in AH trading:

     

    http://yhoo.it/1aaGp1x
    28 Oct 2013, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Maya! LNCO also up AH. Removal of the asymmetry of info with respect to Berry Pet. earnings is a plus and doing so with a positive report is plus, plus.
    28 Oct 2013, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: Funny how a win is based on a better loss than expected.

     

    Lot of claptrap going on from the snarling bears as to why there was not a CC held in conjunction with Q-report. Nonsense. Linn is almost certainly restricted (or wise) to not hold a CC while the SEC investigation results are not yet completed. As well as that Linn is in the middle of a very controversial merger, which holds tax ramifications for the entire industry going forward.

     

    I do think the Berry merger will be extended.
    28 Oct 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    Bay Area Company’s Chip Promises Big Leaps In Storage, Battery Life
    Actually it doesn't do anything for the battery other than use less energy.

     

    Incidentally it works 20 or so times faster and can hold a terabyte of data on a chip.
    http://cbsloc.al/HcJOGf

     

    Unfortunately Crossbar does not seem to have a stock.
    28 Oct 2013, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Re:(LINE)

     

    WOW! Talk about a good day!

     

    Up about 5.5%.
    29 Oct 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Yep, WT, a good day for LINE owners. I like the buying pressure today. Should continue upward tomorrow.

     

    --The highlight on the quarter is the fact that LINN is reporting that it produced $2 million of net cash in excess of what it paid in distributions. One of the changes it made in how it reports earnings is to get away from MLP type metrics such as the distribution coverage ratio. The new accounting term that LINN Energy and LinnCo investors will want to familiarize themselves with is "Excess of net cash provided by operating activities after distributions to unitholders and discretionary adjustments considered by the Board of Directors," which is quite the mouthful. We'll keep it simple and just refer to this as LINN's leftovers, if any, each quarter.

     

    ####

     

    I agree, quite the mouthful. Linn also filed their SIXTH amended S-4 form with the SEC, so something, or some kind of announcement could be coming tomorrow or the next day.
    29 Oct 2013, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    "Linn also filed their SIXTH amended S-4 form with the SEC, so something, or some kind of announcement could be coming tomorrow or the next day. "

     

    If the SEC accepts the amendment without further question(s)?
    29 Oct 2013, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1886) | Send Message
     
    Liked the discussion above incited by HTL asking " what happens to the markets when tapering actually begins."

     

    I'll go out on a limb here and say -- that I am far more worried about the prospects of increased bond buying or other QE rather than tapering. A little symbolic tapering may indeed occur IMO -- but I think the Fed (especially led by Ms. Yellen) is likely to find other creative ways to keep playing fast and loose with the value of the dollar over the next 2-3 years. Fed policy and the interpretation of mandates are likely to encourage continued forms of QE.

     

    For example the mandate of stability of prices/inflation targets have a lot of wiggle room for interpretation depending on whether we are defining inflation in terms of consumer prices vs. commodity prices vs. wages or vs. other asset classes. Lower unemployment has also been a mandate -- but already we are hearing Fed governors highlighting the participation rate as all important -- especially as the unemployment rate is falling while the participation rate is also declining. And finally, Central banks around the world are encouraging the Fed "for even more rounds of monetary spirits": http://bit.ly/16KbTLz

     

    I think Marc Faber has it right in asking how long will our equity asset bubble keep growing as the Fed continues to find reason to keep the spigots wide open: http://bit.ly/16KbVTI

     

    So -- I'm keeping my positions on short leashes -- because I'm not smart enough to know when the bubble will burst. IMHO there is still a lot more room to reach new highs for a while. However, I'm finding many international stocks have better valuations than many of the US blue chips I like. There are several indicators suggesting that "irrational exuberance 3.0" may pay us a visit. http://bit.ly/16KbVTJ

     

    BTW -- I participated in a Fidelity webcast this evening and I found it interesting that nearly 15,000 audience participants surveyed consider "political issues" the #1 challenge to stocks. Two more factoids I had not heard elsewhere: 1) Of the S&P companies who have reported Q3 earnings (more than half) -- their top line growth is averaging 3.2% (much higher than I expected) and 2) to my surprise Apple's $17 billion bond offering which was heavily oversubscribed in April -- is now trading for 85 cents on the dollar!
    mj
    29 Oct 2013, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    "Political issues" are, in America, now synonymous with "Obamacare". This is a gross oversimplification, of course, but its what I see happening.

     

    As I recently posted, the equity bubble ( I avoid the much broader term "asset bubble" because there are many very different asset classes, and some of them are far from bubble conditions, and are in fact declining) represented by the S&P is still over 20% under where it "should" be if it were just keeping pace with trends from the year 2000. Few of us approve of the dollar depreciation and inflationary policies which have controlled since that time, but none of us should disregard their heavy weighting in any analysis looking for "bubble" formation. I believe we may be prime for another weak correction soon, something in the range of 5-10%, however...

     

    "Other" asset classes like real estate and government debt are, indeed, very distorted by manipulation and actually scary as investment ideas. Though I hesitate to over-abuse the "bubble" label, it could be applied in both cases.

     

    Commodities have the usual mixed bag overall, with the usual geopolitical risks and footnotes, but precious metals are hardly in bubble state given the recent events. Base metals are also very troubled, as are many important minerals. I see no bubbles there, though abundant geopolitical manipulation, of course.

     

    Fiat currencies (which I believe ARE an asset class of sorts, though the idea troubles me a great deal and is NOT something I approve of) are DEFINITELY in a bubble state, taken as a whole (dominated by the American dollar, of course, with supporting bubbleiciousness from the Yen, the euro, and various lesser currencies).

     

    So those looking for bubbles can find them, I think, but I pull back strongly from any general proclamation that overall assets are on bubble alert.
    30 Oct 2013, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Mercy,

     

    Blasnik is also seeing the "irrational exuberance 3.0" as a big concern today, also referencing the Arends article from yesterday:

     

    Party Like It's 2000 - Before the Giant Space-Frog Strikes
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    And the chart he posted yesterday in the Ramsey Su piece is rather striking:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    30 Oct 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1886) | Send Message
     
    Really good chart on the second link SMaturin. I particularly appreciated the additional reference to the off the books liability which adds $80Trillion or more to the deficit numbers. What a travesty for so many generations to come.
    mj
    30 Oct 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    Smartin, I hope folks are paying attention to those articles. I have gotten to the point where I am not feeling confident to recommend any strategy at all at this point. Not a buy nor a sell. I feel like I am waiting for the next grain of sand to fall and I have been holding my breath for a long time watching for it.

     

    Once I finish with the goats it will be time for rabbits and chickens. Learning how to tap walnut trees now and sorghum is next.

     

    http://bit.ly/1adPlTN
    30 Oct 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1886) | Send Message
     
    Sebelius live House testimony is underway:

     

    http://on.mktw.net/1ht...
    30 Oct 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    A grand charade it seems to keep the people divided over the R and D method of political insanity. They are defiantly battling to impress their respective sheeple that simply vote R or D. Keeping the main herd corralled while picking up stray sheeple along the way.
    30 Oct 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Meanwhile both sides are in frontal assault mode on TEA Party politicians.
    8 Nov 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1886) | Send Message
     
    I've discussed water technology firm Mueller Water Products(MWA) recently. Earnings release last night is driving pps up 6%+ -- its best level in five years. (MWA) reported that Q4 adjusted diluted EPS was $0.08, beating Capital IQ consensus by $0.01. Year-ago adjusted diluted EPS was $0.03.
    mj
    Disclosure: Long (MWA)
    30 Oct 2013, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    I don't know if anyone here is following GILD, they have had some real good news lately, and there is room to run. I think it's a really good buy.
    30 Oct 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the heads-up, OJ-

     

    I've had success previously with that.

     

    WT
    8 Nov 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    WWT: OJ??! "Does the glove fit"? :-))

     

    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    My dyxilc typring agani!!!
    8 Nov 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    Political issues. Expect the 2014 race to be a big fight between the tea party and lame stream republicans. Maybe we can finally get rid of the this republicrat party and then start on the demicians.

     

    Ohio tea party might be looking to move towords the constitutional party. We shall see how it goes between now and then.

     

    A big call to defund the Republican party is making its rounds.

     

    I am curious how close to the gates of hell we get before we finally get off this road to hell. I suspect this battle will not be good for the markets.
    30 Oct 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    How many of you all are aware of the massive grid failure test scheduled for Nov. It includes Canada and Mexico. Did anyone watch the History channel movie on grid failure this past Sunday night?

     

    Grid test info below. Good time to get your gas stockpile replenished if you have a generator. BEFORE THE TEST.

     

    http://bit.ly/1adT6bU
    30 Oct 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    "Geopolitical risk" is hardly ever applied to American politics, nor even European (though more so since the sovereign debt crisis hit the headlines).

     

    The prospect which DG and I have been talking about whereby the Republican and Democrat Parties experience schisms feeding a third option (which I personally believe will be of equal size soon after its creation) HAS to be viewed as a very strong geopolitical risk event.

     

    There is a leadership vacuum in both major parties, and nature (even political nature) abhors a vacuum. What follows could be truly dramatic.

     

    Right now I am NOT predicting such a thing prior to the 2014 elections, but instead in the year or so FOLLOWING those elections.
    30 Oct 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    Had not be aware of that "drill", DG. Thanks for the heads up.
    30 Oct 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    trip ... Given the share of "independents" and clear divides within both major political parties, I'm not writing off emergence of that third option in 2014 and may be a fourth option by 2015.

     

    It is interesting to see a Libertarian Gubernatorial candidate in Virginia polling in double digits and other polls showing eroding support for "Tea Party".
    30 Oct 2013, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    The Tea Party has a perception problem (both within its ranks and without). Having thrown in its lot with the Republicans up to this point, it is in a no-win situation. If things go well for the Republicans, the Republicans leadership gets credit. If things go poorly for the Republicans, the Tea Party shares the blame. This is a deadly political trap, with only one way out...

     

    I believe it would be a bad idea for the Tea Party to merge with the Constitution Party save on terms where the Tea Party utterly dominates the agenda. The differences between the two groups of adherents are very large.

     

    The Tea Party already has a heavy percentage of disenchanted members from BOTH major parties as its potential core, and could pull almost as many registered Democrats as it does Independents and Republicans.

     

    We Libertarians have always been political hair shirt loners, and this is NOT a good way to win political support or create valuable alliances. So long as the hair-shirters run the party, it will remain a minor party taking pot shots at its larger brethren.
    30 Oct 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >tripleblack ... I think you're dead wrong in thinking that "The Tea Party already has a heavy percentage of disenchanted members from BOTH major parties ..." I can empathized with them on many issues and wouldn't mind helping achieve those aims but, if they are on a national basis as they are around me here in Texas, they are some of the most inflexible folks I've ever run across. Ideologically, they have some good goals and even a few good ideas. Practically, they are rabid supporters of the interests of the oligarchy.

     

    They certainly aren't interested in listening to people like me that might share similar interests. They are a fringe with a lot of unfocused anger. This is not the road to political relevance so I think as a political entity the Tea Party will remain a tool until its usefulness is used up.
    30 Oct 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    DR: We'll just have to disagree then. The surveys have indicated a broad mixture of political beliefs, ages, sexes, races, etc. I suspect the primary problem welding together a cohesive party will stem from this diversity. They just don't have enough in common to work together longer term.

     

    What I expect to happen after the first rush to organize will be a steady filtering process, where disenchantment with the new Party sees its initial size shrink. This has happened frequently in the past when new parties (Perot, Dixiecrat, etc) have launched.

     

    Once having reached a decision to leave their original selection in the 2 major parties, and if then they are disenchanted with whatever form the new Third party takes, we could see millions of very independent people seeking a political home in places like the various fringe parties, including of course the Libertarian Party.

     

    In the end I believe we will see the membership roles in all 3 "primary" parties decline, as more and more people become independents or join a minor party.
    30 Oct 2013, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    TB that would be wonderful news because the two party agendas are the only thing these two partys push for. Certainly not something for the people. All I care for is the destruction of these two self centered parties and the restoration of our constitution as the final say in our country.

     

    As far as DRich's interaction with the tea party folks in Texas, let me say every group is an independent group of folks with their own ideas and cohesive interface between its members and yes there are crazy fanatics out there but thier ideas are going no where. The three main tenants of the tea party are: fiscal responsibility, limited government, and free markets. From those tenants the press, the demicains, the republicrats and even idiots in some of our groups try to repaint that picture a thousand different ways.

     

    I look forward to working with the Occupy Wall street folks some day to battle these two parties in restoring individual freedoms and states rights. Of course we do not agree on all points, quite a few disagreements actually, but the need to take down these two behemoths could lead to the opportunity to work together for the common good.
    30 Oct 2013, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    It does not take a majority to prevail... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men.
    Samuel Adams

     

    This is the best quote for the tea party I can think of when folks say we are not big enough. Irate might be some of what DRich is seeing in Texas, they have an attitude down there.....something about messing with Texas.
    30 Oct 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    I long for the days of O'Niel and GHW Bush, of Rostenkowski working issues out in bi-partisan committee meetings, of Clinton and Hatch hammering out differences and issues and independent thinking WITHIN parties, none of this block positioning that is destroying any respect- at least from my perspective for our political system. It used to be that an issue was decided and then everyone rallied around the flag and worked together whether they agreed with the decision or not. Now it's refusal to do that, even more perverse, to seek to destroy the political process itself. The extreme polarization that came with the elections of 1996 lives on and thrives.

     

    A look at recent European elections showed that even with multiple parties looking for victory the successful ones reached out to the others for their inclusion and cooperation in moving forward for everyone's benefit.

     

    I agree with Trip and DG that what is now is pathetic (my words) should be replaced with an alternative. Three, four - how many ever parties- whatever it takes to get this country off the dime works for me.

     

    If I disagree with what results I will wait until I'm inside a voting booth or on the phone to my legislators and voice my opinion- the way it should be.

     

    WT
    30 Oct 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    DR you state: "Practically, they are rabid supporters of the interests of the oligarchy."
    What oligarchy would that be? I do not understand this reference. Please, explain.
    30 Oct 2013, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    As it turns out the libertarian isn't a libertarian. He was/is a shill who's campaign was financed by the Obama machine to split the Republican vote. http://exm.nr/HFHzvB
    8 Nov 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    What DRich sees in Texas as intransigence is accurate. Way to much has been compromised away to the Democrats by their Republican adversaries. In reality it is the Fabiens that have been infiltrating both parties for over a hundred years now. In essence the establishment Republicans are Democrats in disguise and are more than willing to compromise away individual liberty to expand their government and the power they derive from that action. Both parties are moving in the same direction. That is what the TEA Party is trying to put a stop to. Look no farther than the Virginia Gubernatorial race. The Republican national committee gave very little support to the TEA Party candidate and were out spent by the SEIU alone. The Democrats spent $15M dollars more than the Republicans who only spent $1M. Three times less than in the last Gubernatorial race in Virginia. It's very clear that establishment Republicans would rather have a Democrat win than a TEA Party candidate. If the so called "Moderate." Republicans would attack Democrats as vigorously as they do TEA Party Republicans they would win more elections. Should the Republicans make the mistake of listening to Democrats again by running Christy in 2016 they will lose again. Why vote for Democrat lite when a real Democrat is on the ballot? Neither McCain nor Romney was able to hold the conservative, evangelical or TEA Party voters. McCain lost to an unknown socialist candidate running as a Democrat even though he was the war hero and establishment favorite. He claimed to be the "Maverick." when in reality he is just Democrat lite. Romney lost to the same socialist candidate as McCain did even after Obama's true colors had been exposed for the same reason. Romney ran to the left of Ted, Kennedy for the MA Senate and introduced Romney Care in that state. Republicans can't be intent on out Democrating the Democrats or they will never win the White House. You would think they would learn that after being beaten twice in a row for running Democrat lite candidates. Most TEA Party activists, politicians and supporters realize that a third party is a losing proposition and thus the strategy to coopt the Republican party. As you can see it's working as the number of TEA Party Republicans is steadily increasing. You can also see the hostility by both parties to the TEA Party politicians because of their radical ideas like term limits on the legislature, following the constitution, limiting the size and scope of government and a host of other no nonsense initiatives that would curb the progressive agenda being pushed by both parties. That is why they refuse to compromise. It's always the Republicans giving things away to the Democrats. When it's time for Democrats to give ground their response is "We won't negotiate." which we just saw during the last non negotiated national parks shut down. So just who is it that really won't compromise?
    8 Nov 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4426) | Send Message
     
    >robert.b.ferguson ...I'm a Democratic Socialist, a Christian and a Capitalist. I read the goals you state for what the Tea Party aspires to almost everywhere. I share many of them but I certainly don't see it in practice. I could just go down the list but I won't because there is little point to wasting the time.

     

    Now I've only been kicked out of 4 of these Tea Party organization so far so maybe I'm not trying hard enough but to achieve those goals will take help from dissimilar folk, such as myself, and some compromise. I don't work well with people that want my money, time & vote while demanding I tow their line with no interest in anything they haven't already been influenced into believing. Angry sheep.
    8 Nov 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >DG-

     

    I believe it's akin to sticking your finger in the light bulb socket to see if the juice is on.
    8 Nov 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10139) | Send Message
     
    Long time folks..

     

    I have stayed away for a reason. I needed to educate myself on being a better communicator, work out some personal kinks, and let some time go by.

     

    So I am posting with my fingers crossed. I started my own blog to actually learn how different views need to be accepted. I hope I can be welcomed back and add to your conversations. If not I will just slip away again.

     

    However I do have a few questions and would appreciate a response. Is this market overbought? Does commodities have more legs? What are the best sectors to invest in right now?

     

    I am sure you folks have discussed this before but a quick summary would be welcomed.

     

    Again, two years ago I did insult some of you with my comments. So I do ask for you to just put it in the past . If you can I would like to re join the conversations. If I am not welcomed I fully understand.

     

    IT
    30 Oct 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Interesting Times: Greetings and welcome back!
    8 Nov 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    I don't get to visit the Insta every day -- and that gives me a different perspective. Not better, just different. I just read a hundred comments in a row and find that 90 of them are political opinion, expressed civilly, but still just opinion.

     

    I find equity discussions taking a back seat; of those 100, I recall only CPST, LINE and, back to back, Mercy's MWA and OG's GILD.

     

    As a way to foster greater discussion of "stocks," I and our clients have been buying IBM, ORCL and MSFT of late -- all "over the hill" to some but lovely cash cows with still-insightful and well-funded R&D to us, all selling for ca. 12 PEs. Also TRN -- though we bought and then lost some to trailing stops, we'd be ready buyers on pullbacks; RYN, which I believe will be a powerhouse in nanocellulose; and SQM, dog that it is, because of their cost of production and market share in lithium, iodine, solar storage salts, and potassium nitrate. I wrote recent SA articles on SQM and TRN and will likely do so for RYN after we buy for our clients' portfolios.

     

    Looking forward to the spirited pro and con discussions I remember so fondly from this distinguished group. Doesn't have to be on any of these, but when someone strikes a continuing chord, like LINE and CPST, just look at the depth of the research and breadth of the discussion!
    30 Oct 2013, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Joseph...great idea.

     

    I owned some Sociadad de Quimica y Minera de Chile (isn't that just plain fun rattling that name off?) at least five years ago. Initially, before the derivative meltdown, I bought SQM because of their product mix, especially because they held an immense share of the world's lithium production.

     

    Also recall a little factoid that SQM built their own railroad to carry materials to the coast.

     

    Looked into SQM a while back and IIRC, there was some political agenda with the corporate leadership, which for me was a HUGE stop sign.

     

    Trinity is, well now was, completely off my radar, and it absolutely should not be. Railroad cars are being built as fast as they can make them, due to all the oil and shale being produced, without the pipelines to move all the product. A quick gander at the chart and it seems a bit toppy to me, but then again, TRN may be breaking out to the upside.

     

    Sorry I didn't get a chance to read your articles -- company in town. I'll try to get to them in the next couple of days.

     

    FWIW: My broker likes Dunkin Doughnuts and Boeing. I had no idea that Dunkin has so few stores out west, but is now going on a major expansion campaign, with an added breakfast menu to boot. And, I believe my broker stated that Boeing has $4.2T in backorders. A stunning number indeed.

     

    I know zippo about RYN.

     

    Also, over in FocalPoint Analytics Medical News Insta, we're tracking a bunch of speculative biotechs, all with seemingly huge upside.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    30 Oct 2013, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >Maya-
    Re: Dunkin'

     

    Isn't (or wasn't) Crispy Creme the King of the Hill west of the Rockies? I followed neither but that was my impression.

     

    WT
    30 Oct 2013, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    List of trading symbols discussed prior to Oct. 30:

     

    VZ, T, WFC, JCI, GE, NETC, VIV, DRC, BLX, LINE, BRY, LNCO, PWE, NAMG, CPST, NFLX, WBMD, AAPL, MSFT, MWA, GILD and SQM

     

    Crossbar is a company also bookmarked for future interest whenever it might become a publicly trading firm.
    31 Oct 2013, 07:46 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1886) | Send Message
     
    Joseph,
    Appreciate your honest observations and agree with you that direct stock discussions have the most value for me also on the QC.

     

    In the past, you and I have been high on (TEVA) although I am out at the moment. The CEO resignation is a red flag of sorts and their earnings release was just OK IMO. In the past $37.36 would have been a juicy re-entry for me, but now I am still watching. Care to share your thoughts on the topic?

     

    BTW -- I've been watching your YARA callout @ 240 NOK rise very nicely. Good call.

     

    THX,
    mj
    31 Oct 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    Maya, to see the mess SQM's management backed it into, read not just the article but the comments where I am taken to task for not discussing self-serving management (and my riposte!)
    I think RYN is one you'd like -- a decent yield, a great product (timber and scores of cellulosic by-products,) and their incredible land holdings right on the I-95 corridor. They basically sell bits as HBU, then take the proceeds and buy more land a bit further out, which then gets encroached upon, which they then sell, then take the proceeds and... well, you get the idea!
    TRN we'll have to wait to buy more of. It was up 9% today; the PE has jumped all the way to 13.5.
    31 Oct 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Trip. I'm certain my cursory scan didn't cover all of them -- perhaps just the ones I am interested in -- plus WFC, which I like, and PWE, which I own.
    31 Oct 2013, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    I'm out of TEVA as well, Mercy. Just too many other less encumbered companies out there. But I still like YARIY even in the face of articles like this one, which seems to suggest if only we'd produce less food the world would rationally produce less babies. Go figure.
    http://bit.ly/1ct6e4A
    31 Oct 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    OLED, PDH, NSC, VLCCF have been mentioned without much discussion.

     

    OLED (formerly PANL) reports Q3 results November 7. Might be an interesting speculative play beforehand. Company has been targeted by short sellers on rumors of weak IP protection. OLED TVs and curved displays have been introduced by both LG Electronics and Samsung pointing toward widening of markets beyond mobile phone displays. Mobile phone displays began using green emitter chemicals as well as red earlier this year. Blue emitters are on the cusp (maybe crossed over with curved displays) and white emitters appear on near horizon.

     

    long OLED, PDH
    31 Oct 2013, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    OLED is Asensio's latest whipping boy. He's not always right, but he's always (a) cocksure and (b) entertaining.
    31 Oct 2013, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    I looked at OLED a while back, and concluded that they did have weak IP protection, and sharks circling. Although I did not invest, I like the technology just fine. This problem (protecting IP) has become the primary thing I look for before buying any smaller firm where their IP is essential to their existence...

     

    And its a widespread issue.
    1 Nov 2013, 06:55 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    Japanese court issued a favorable ruling on OLED's IP yesterday.

     

    http://yhoo.it/1cuaKQ7
    1 Nov 2013, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Since KrispyKreme went through its reorganization I suppose the field is fertile for Dunkin' Donuts in the West.
    2 Nov 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    I started nibbling at SDR today again
    30 Oct 2013, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    Greetings, Joe S. I find Microsoft a real mixed bag.
    If the EU regulators allow this Nokia deal to happen, I think it will be positive.
    Microsoft is doing quite well marketing to businesses, but its core consumer segments,( including software licensing and windows oem) are shrinking. That is something to watch in the coming quarters, imo. The consumer markets are still its bread and butter.
    Thanks for your list, I'm going to look into them. SQM would have been just about the last thing in the world that would come to my mind as an opportunity! If I was a fly on your wall, I'd like to see the parameters set for your screener!
    30 Oct 2013, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    Hi OG,
    I agree MSFT is floundering with consumers and may never catch that wave again. But their business penetration is massive and the IT folks at big companies know they are unlikely to be fired sticking with what works (some of the time!)
    SQM? You've often commented on my articles so, like I suggested to Maya, you might enjoy the comments on the SQM article, to which I then replied "venal management passes on, willingly or not; the world's #1 resource of lithium, iodine, potassium nitrate and solar salts lives on..."
    31 Oct 2013, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    PS, OG -- I just read a piece on Y-Charts giving the "cash-adjusted" PE for some cash-rich tech firms. They show MSFT at 9.4 and CSCO under 8. Of course, that cash can be used for CapEx or to shore up losses on some ill-conceived project or be wasted in some ill-timed foray, etc. But it seems all these over-the-hill techs have lots of cash which might be used for acquisitions, etcc., as well.
    1 Nov 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    I agree with you, the losses in the consumer units is not enough reason to avoid owning MSFT, it's a good bet that the business segments can continue to outperform and mitigate those losses while the cash position is magnificent.
    It's just a trend to watch. I read that 65% of MSFT's overall business, as reported by Ballmer is still attributable to the consumer segments.
    In a way, I can see comparing MSFT to T, another cash cow-- (I am long T); insofar as T's business is changing while the landlines dwindle, MSFT's business is changing while the PC market dwindles and both companies have to innovate and reinvent themselves because a significant proportion of their business is attributable to older technology which is being replaced. Look at how well IBM made that adjustment--20 years ago would you ever have imagined that IBM would be out of the hardware business? It would have been inconceivable!
    All in all, cash begets cash and cash is still king...
    1 Nov 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Wondering what anyone's thoughts are on ZBB. Seems there was some buying on the announcement of the new board member and/or the reversion of the share price near $1 following the reverse split.
    31 Oct 2013, 07:35 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    I see reverse splits as a struggle to stay alive. Be careful.
    31 Oct 2013, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    I don't know the company, but like DG I can't remember a single reverse split that wasn't a desperation move to gain credibility via financial engineering rather than corporate success.
    31 Oct 2013, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    The motivation appears to be to remain listed on the NYSE.
    1 Nov 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    I think ZBB was in the process of being de-listed for their low per share price. The reverse split could well be for that reason. Not that they aren't struggling to stay afloat. Their hybrid flow battery storage product doesn't seem cost effective to me. It also doesn't have the "infinite kWh storage by adding only tankage" capability of a true flow battery.

     

    I remember reading a cost/storage analysis that their type of product would cost about twice what the PbC would for the same energy storage. Power storage price is even more in favor of the PbC.
    1 Nov 2013, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    QTWW has had a huge pop lately and HXL seems to be moving up very well. Both are on my green companies list. Quantum continues to loose money and hexcel has a PE of over 24 so I am still watching with curiosity. I was in becon power when they went bankrupt after taking money from the govt so I am once burned twice shy right now.
    31 Oct 2013, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    Wow. A blast from the past. So many fine companies have fallen off my radar over the past few years. I bought HXL when I owned a pair of 205cm Hexcel pencil skis! It seems a bit rich for me now but I'll put it down on the watch list, given their history and prospects . Thanks, DG!
    31 Oct 2013, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    How much gold are the CB's buying.

     

    " You might be asking yourself, if China is taking down most if not all of the gold that will produced by mines this year, where is India, Turkey, Russia, Viet Nam, the Middle East and the other gold-buying Central Banks getting their gold and how come the price of gold isn't going higher? "

     

    http://bit.ly/xIjnO1
    31 Oct 2013, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Re: Indian Gold-

     

    Read a recent article that said they are paying up to 15% higher than market plus taxes that brings the cost to around $1670 or so. No mention of the supply source so I assume that it may be from an internal horde.

     

    WT
    31 Oct 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Smuggling. In the past most of the gold imported by India flowed through their central bank (ref: large IMF sale a few years back), with most of it then diverted through the system to ultimately enter the retail trade.

     

    Recent moves by the central government means that the old system is now broken. Just as might be expected (and as we have seen in other places) when government seeks to change basic human nature, the answer is a massive move by individuals and underworld figures to circumvent the government blocks.

     

    Smuggling and cash deals under the table (and in the back alley) will replace what was a largely legal and profitable business carried out by both government and private industry.

     

    The consequences may have been "unintended", but they are most certainly predictable.
    31 Oct 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    Can someone please explain what just happened with APNT?
    http://on.mktw.net/16P...
    31 Oct 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1886) | Send Message
     
    Patrick,
    Investopedia will help you understand the basics of a cashless swap merger as well as help you dig deeper on nuances: http://bit.ly/19eHjxL
    mj
    31 Oct 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    Maybe Rob will be able to answer some questions for you.
    31 Oct 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    If I'm not mistaken the merger assumes "financials" of APNT at beginning of 2012, or when it was trading about 25 cents. The combined company will have revenues over 14 million, or 3X that of the current market cap of APNT. Just trying to understand what it means for the value of a share of APNT should it come to pass.
    31 Oct 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    I looked at this one two years ago and it failed to make the top twenty. It's been losing money for awhile and it's very speculative with headwinds. I would have to look at it again to see exactly what this merger is about and will if I get some time. It's expensive with a PE above 20 and its operating revenue is at the lowest level in five years. In stocks of this nature those facts are less compelling than in more widely traded equities. I would expect dilution following the merger as they will be compelled to raise capital. I would approach this one cautiously as insider trading is nonexistant.
    8 Nov 2013, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1886) | Send Message
     
    David Einhorn posts a stark reminder regarding all of the earnings beats being celebrated about town. So many players reduced Q3 guidance back in July -- so now they can pat themselves on the back for a wonderful quarter vs expectations. Bottom line Einhorm advice on how to trade this equity bubble: (Spoiler Alert: Don't).

     

    http://bit.ly/1iyfEce
    31 Oct 2013, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    I posted this over at the political quick chat but wanted to get yalls attention on it so I am putting it here too but would think the political site is the best place to comment on it.

     

    This is really a great insight into the tea party, demicians and republicrats. An excellent read and I really think its spot on.

     

    http://bit.ly/1ctdhKy

     

    edit; added link to political quick chat below.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    31 Oct 2013, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >DG-

     

    Thanks for posting the link

     

    WT
    1 Nov 2013, 12:01 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    This is really a great insight into the tea party, demicians and republicrats. An excellent read and I really think its spot on.

     

    but would think the political site is the best place to comment on it.

     

    please follow your own advice...
    1 Nov 2013, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    jpau...

     

    DG has not commented on it (he posted the links, directing the commentary to the other blog).

     

    WT thanked DG for posting the link, but did not comment on the article...

     

    Thus far, no one has commented on the article. If you would like to, follow the link DG so kindly provided.
    1 Nov 2013, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    TB, I thought the top line that I copied was a comment on it

     

    I'll leave it be here, sorry
    1 Nov 2013, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    I am heading for a big show in Orlando this weekend, so fare thee well, you all.
    1 Nov 2013, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1886) | Send Message
     
    Have fun TB. Weather should be 70 degrees and perfect!
    1 Nov 2013, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    With envy in my heart I hope you have a good time.
    1 Nov 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Fare thee well to you! Hope you have lots of success!

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    (LINE), (LNCO): "LINN Energy and LinnCo Announce Regulatory Update and Conference Call Details"

     

    "... the Division of Corporation Finance of the Securities and Exchange Commission has advised that it has no further comments on Amendment No. 6 to the Joint Registration Statement on Form S-4".

     

    Conference call scheduled too.

     

    http://bit.ly/19izZRK

     

    +3.5% pre-market.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Nov 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    And away we go...
    1 Nov 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Woooooohoooo!

     

    A very windy front passed through this morning. Power just restored.

     

    LINE up $3.53 per. Another buck or so, and I'll finally, finally, finally be back to even (with the divvies paid, I'm already more than even).

     

    A gleeful trip around the home to reset the clocks. YES!

     

    (font size 64) YES!
    1 Nov 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    We had it last night and lost many trees.
    1 Nov 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    It blew through with a burst of rain in suburban NY this morning as well. Knocked down some branches, terrified the pooches who were out for a walk when it hit, according to SWMBO.
    1 Nov 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm.....

     

    Time for a War on Weather?

     

    http://bit.ly/19kzqae
    1 Nov 2013, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >Maya-
    Re:(LINE)

     

    On Friday it was the stock with the third largest BUY orders in the exchange with 1417 orders.

     

    Let's hope the level stays that way for a while.

     

    WT
    2 Nov 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    IDIX climbing big today. I've added again since it bottomed near $3. I think Klarman owns almost 20 percent ( we'll find out if he held soon when Q3 report comes out). I guess someone liked the call.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    1 Nov 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >Jpau-
    Thanks for the (IDIX) update. Had it a while back but had forgotten it. Will check it out again.

     

    WT
    1 Nov 2013, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Anyone else getting a lot of 504 "bad gateway" / server timeouts on SA the past couple of days?

     

    I thought it may be my IT dept was blocking the site, but it has happened on my iPad on 4G, as well.
    1 Nov 2013, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Update: SA works fine in Firefox, but failing to connect in Chrome on the work windoze desktop machine. Getting failure to connect timeout errors constantly in Chrome the last couple of days.
    1 Nov 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    I've noticed similar fails in Chrome- Starts to engage then a wipeout on my iPad III.

     

    I just figured I was asking too much from the critter.

     

    WT
    1 Nov 2013, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    None here, SM. Response has been quite slow from time to time, but no 504 errors.
    1 Nov 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    For those watching (LINE), note that the top Friday was just below the bottom of the gap open up, $31.73, of 6/18-19. The top of the gap is $32.10. Our high Friday was $31.53. This is close enough that I believe the gap bottom acted as resistance.

     

    Monday I expect it will try to penetrate that, will do so, and will try to get past the gap top.

     

    If this is a normal "pop" situation, might make it since most pops will run at least a few days. OTOH ...

     

    That $32 area has demonstrated *temporary* support twice recently: 5/31 and 6/28. The first was on strong volume, ~6.3MM shares, and the second was weaker, but still reasonable at ~2.5MM shares traded. So I suspect this could act as strong resistance, especially considering the target price and the gap are both in this area..

     

    If it does top at ~$32, a retrace to, possibly, $27.70-$27.90 seems reasonable. This would be both a "reversion to the mean (of the 10/28 low of 26.23 to high of 11/1, $31.53) and match the previously demonstrated resistance areas matching the bottom of the gap-down open 7/1-2, $29.76.

     

    I can't say this full range is likely though - seems an awfully big pullback from ostensibly "good" news. But with the BRY deal uncertain still, who knows. Also, if it does stall around $32 and volume tapers off, the (remaining?) shorts should jump it.

     

    As of 10/15, the short interest was 9.806MM shares (~7.5 days to cover) and had been recently climbing. Some of our rise Friday could have been shorts scrambling to cover. If a substantial number of them didn't do so, then when volume weakens we can expect the shorts to try and drive price down again, either to get a favorable covering price or because they see the BRY deal in jeopardy.

     

    In this case we should see volatility still hasn't left this stock.

     

    With all that in mind, opened two long put positions Friday - one longer-term intent and one intra-day intent, as I could see behavior I thought might suggest a pullback from the intra-day high.

     

    I couldn't catch the tops and bottoms properly (being burned a couple times before on this LINE behavior has made me a bit more cautious) but managed to scarf 6.799% on the intra-day round trip.

     

    With one of the articles we've read having a $32 target (might as well consider it equal to our gap top), based on the yield the author expected folks would like to see, I think my chances are pretty decent I might make something on the other long put position too.

     

    I'll be quick to exit if it doesn't behave as expected and will also be playing long positions on puts and calls, most likely intra-day intent, as behavior warrants.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2013, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    INCORRECTOMUNDO!

     

    Those "$27.70-$27.90" s/b $29.70-$29.90

     

    Severe brain "glitch" in play I guess!

     

    Apoplectic apologies!

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Makes more sense that way HTL. Thanks.
    2 Nov 2013, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    TB: I forgot to mention that the 20-day SMA is currently $31.99 and falling around $0.044/day currently for (LINE). That's close to some of those other price points mentioned as possible topping areas.

     

    That can act as resistance but if price breaks above and confirms, traders might go all bullish on it.

     

    I also forgot to mention ~10.4MM shares traded, with 10-day average being ~2.6MM at EOD prior day. Since we have been in an up trend, this may signal the "blow off" top. But if we get a normal 2-3 day pop, might have another day or two of strong volume and up price.

     

    Looking at 9/11 volume of ~9.6MM shares traded on a pop up, we went sideways for 4 days and then went down to start another sideways trend 9/24. That 9/11 was a gap open up though, so may not be a good comparison.

     

    Currently price is above the upper Bollinger of $29.9035. The lower is $24.9773. If price moved to mid-point right away, that would be $27.44. I don't expect it will come back to that immediately, so it likely would retreat to some higher level as the Bollingers will have moved. That makes me think those high $29 areas might be a reasonable area if there's a re-trace.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Nov 2013, 06:58 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    I've been anticipating a run to the 32's, then some settling to wash out the mo traders who got in cheap, followed by a return... With a distinct trading channel possible 32-35 for a while.
    4 Nov 2013, 06:13 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    (LINE), (LNCO): "LINN Energy, LinnCo and Berry Petroleum Company Amend Merger Agreement"

     

    http://bit.ly/HF0AO8

     

    Pre-market as high as $32.78, currently $32.50, +5.25%.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Nov 2013, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    Info on the comet ison and sun spots, storms, quakes in 5 minutes.

     

    http://bit.ly/1feCZQq
    4 Nov 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, guns!

     

    Just off the phone with my broker regarding LINE. We decided that I should not sell at this time. Instead, he thinks after the Berry deal goes through, that LINE could by the middle of next year surge above $40 per unit. He mentioned $46 as a high but achievable target. He also expects that the acquisition should go through pretty soon, sooner than the January extension allows.

     

    The entire pipeline sector is in for a nice 10 year ride. Joseph Shaefer's article about Trinity, who are building RR cars to transport petroleum as fast as they can make them, is one hint.

     

    Another is what I call the "Yellen Effect." in that interest rates will remain low, so MLP's like LINE, BBEP, ETP, and many others will be able to borrow years out on the cheap.

     

    Neither of us like that LINE upped the share ratio to Berry holders, but when one steps back one sees that Berry is now worth the extra $600M due the improved and outperforming revenue streams. So yes, the dilution is coming, and LINE may stay range bound between $31 and $36, but the juicy yield should remain safe, as safe as things get in this crazy and volatile sector.
    4 Nov 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    (LINE), (LNCO): Well, we closed our gap. If we get one more day of push up, AFAICT, we can get $34.26, where we should encounter strong resistance.

     

    There is another teeny gap up open6/6-6/7, $33.23-$33.38, but it's so small and rather old so I don't believe we'll see much more than an intra-day pause if we challenge that range.

     

    The $36 area you mention Maya has a gap-down open which should offer resistance: 5/3-5/6 (Fri-Mon), $35.75-$38.40. I expect if we get by the $34 area, I expect the lower bound of this gap would be strong resistance.

     

    But I would be surprised if we get that high near-term. I think multiple up and down waves would be needed to progress that far over ... a couple or more weeks?

     

    Volume on today's move up was still strong, albeit lower today, ~8,84MM vs. Friday's ~10.4MM. This suggests there is still more upside to this pop.

     

    If the new BRY deal is seen as a positive, we might get a bunch more than a normal 2-3 day pop in this move.

     

    Went long some Dec $32 calls today. If AH is any indicator, should be profitable tomorrow.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    4 Nov 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >HTL-

     

    I followed your play with a Buy of (LINE) $31s December this afternoon.

     

    I believe the rabbits that are going to, have run for their holes.

     

    (EDIT) Bot at $1.15
    6 Nov 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    WWT: Since GS spoiled yesterday's party with a downgrade, I don't know how well this will play out.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Nov 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Re: GS-

     

    More of the same as with Barrons and Hedgeye? I am hoping most people are wise to their shenanigans.

     

    I see momentum building for (LINE) and other MLPs including (KMP), (BBEP), (EPD) and Dominion's (D) MLP spinoff coming in a few months. My belief is that these are safe harbor vehicles with an income punch that should provide some moat effect. I do like Dominion on its own w/out the spin-off.

     

    WT
    6 Nov 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    WT: I own all of those MLP's except (D).

     

    BBEP announced today that they will be switching from quarterly to monthly payouts.

     

    Other MLP's I own are:

     

    Buckeye Pipeline (BPL) has had a nice recent run from $62.61 on Oct. 10, to $69.03 today.

     

    Sunoco Logistics (SXL) keeps on surging (except for today), more than doubling since June of 2012.

     

    Enterprise Transfer Partners (ETP) has moved from a low on Nov. 7, 2012 at $40.89 to trading for $53.06 today.

     

    Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) has been range bound between $74 and $92 since November of 2011, and is trading right now at $80.65. I have KMP as a buy right now.

     

    Lastly, Kayne Anderson Energy Total Return Fund (KYE) (not an MLP tax-wise) has also been range bound, lately, but has moved from $24.10 on December 28, 2012, to a high on May 21, 2012, of $31.49. Trading at $28.25 right now. I don't like the charts on this one; it may pull back more.
    6 Nov 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >Maya-

     

    That's a nice looking group. I would gladly trade a few of my bombs for some of yours! I had (SXL) for a while in 2012 but got out with a decent profit.

     

    Have you computed the aggregate income return on your flock?

     

    I believe (EPD) has a solid story right now, and will be adding on any retrace. Your (ETP) has a niche as well.

     

    I'm less sanguine about (KMP). They may have spread themselves a little thin. They've gotten a little investor criticism on the El Paso acquisition.
    6 Nov 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >Maya-

     

    As a further comment to an earlier post (follows this) I read a KMP report from Ron Hiram that he posted on 21 October. I had not seen this as a result of travel issues.

     

    Ron raises a couple of points that had caused me some pause previously but all in all I believe this to be a positive 3rd quarter report for KMP. I think you will agree.

     

    Enjoy!

     

    http://bit.ly/HydbTK

     

    WT
    6 Nov 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, WT.

     

    Here's an extract of another KMP article I read earlier today:

     

    --Importantly, this quarter did nothing to change the long-term bull thesis in KMP. Investors do best in the long run when strong business fundamentals are not reflected in the stock, and that is the case in KMP. With increasing drilling activity in the United States, the need for pipelines continues to grow, which should buoy KMP cash flows for years. The company has a project backlog of $14.4 billion up from $12.6 billion a year ago. From these projects, KMP will be able to grow its cash flow over time by 40%, and given its lower leverage ratio of 2.47x, management has the flexibility to fund the expansion with some debt rather than equity, which will make them even more accretive for unit holders.

     

    In fact just this week, KMP announced a $500 million pipeline expansion from the Marcellus shale to the Northeast along with a $65 million Marcellus Pooling Point project. With production growing dramatically in the Northeast from the Marcellus and Utica shale formations, KMP is poised to significantly grow its network in the region with more projects like this, which will help it to continue growing its distribution. As the US begins to slowly export liquid natural gas in 2015, demand for pipelines should grow dramatically. Kinder Morgan is perfectly positioned to expand its network to profit from the domestic energy boom. Moreover, the company will be stepping up fees to use its pipeline, which will further boost distributable cash flow. KMP should be able to grow cash flows 5-7% annually through 2020.

     

    http://bit.ly/1bcjmV0
    6 Nov 2013, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Very positive article, Maya-
    Interesting take that the dropping of the stock price over the last couple of months is a huge benefit to those planning to buy it-

     

    Do we, well...uh..... Thank Hedgeye?

     

    I didn't think so either.

     

    WT
    6 Nov 2013, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    >HTL- Looks like your suspicions were accurate-

     

    (LINE) down $.77 to $29.69.
    7 Nov 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    WWT: It started towards the $0.28.7x area but reversed at $0.29.20 - twice now.

     

    I *suspect* this might be an intra-day bounce and tomorrow might make a run towards that $28.7x area again.

     

    Buy:sell through 11:30 is around 1:1.5.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Nov 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    "Buy:sell through 11:30 is around 1:1.5"

     

    High volume, or just normal?
    7 Nov 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Looking at 13:19, I'd say low, compared to recent, but looking normal longer-term.

     

    My guess is we'll end with around 3.5MM or so.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Nov 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2443) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, HTL-

     

    No panic selling at this point.
    7 Nov 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    WWT: Buy:sell now 8:11 as buying came bck as price dropped. New intra-day low made at $29.16 at 13:35 and being tested again now.

     

    A descending trend line high of 12:35 $29.68, touching four subsequent highs leading to a current resistance around $29.33 ATM. It seem strong as it's bee tested 3 time since the origin.

     

    We could easily test $29 today.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Nov 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Nice move, HTL, with the Dec. $32 calls! LINE up 51 cents in AH trading, to $32.32. I think the momo continues tomorrow. Amazing how positive SA articles and elsewhere on LINE have been these past few days.

     

    Perhaps of the 10 or 13 articles I have read lately, Elliot Gue's is the best:

     

    http://bit.ly/1aZrMCx

     

    I think the momo will continue tomorrow, and I'm with you about the coming waves, but the waves will come with an upward bias.

     

    Seems since forever I was on Mad Money....

     

    ####

     

    So let's have some (phew) humor!

     

    Should children witness childbirth? Good question.

     

    Here's your answer.

     

    Due to a power outage, only one paramedic responded to the call. The house was very dark so the paramedic asked Kathleen, a 3-year old girl to hold a flashlight high over her mommy so he could see while he helped deliver the baby. Very diligently, Kathleen did as she was asked. Heidi pushed and pushed and after a little while, Connor was born. The paramedic lifted him by his little feet and spanked him on his bottom. Connor began to cry.

     

    The paramedic then thanked Kathleen for her help and asked the wide-eyed 3-year old what she thought about what she had just witnessed. Kathleen quickly responded, 'He shouldn't have crawled in there in the first place....smack his ass again!'
    4 Nov 2013, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Maya: LoL!

     

    HardToLove
    4 Nov 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    Maya, Very funny. LOL
    4 Nov 2013, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    At the risk of stirring "the politcal pot" here on QC, I offer an editorial that I found fascinating:

     

    'Let's face it. The climate has never been more boring.'
    Guest post by Dr. Robert G. Brown, Physics Department of Duke University
    http://bit.ly/1b1Rc0w
    4 Nov 2013, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    THAT's not politics -- or at least "of course" it is political, in the sense that politics informs and determines our daily investment decisions! Than you for a very readable article.

     

    We wouldn't want to ignore politics here -- it's only when it gets into merely bashing our eminently-deserving of bashing "leadership" that it has the potential to distract us from the reason we come here: to make enough money to donate to those who help us throw the current crop out of office, replacing them with a different crop. :)
    11 Nov 2013, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    http://dailym.ai/18Vi8fs is another article pointing toward likelihood of future government policy change with economic implications. Empirical evidence is not supporting AGW thesis.
    5 Nov 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: "Empirical evidence is not supporting AGW thesis"

     

    Give it time. It has yet to be selectively massaged to enable the further chasing of grants to scientists from biased money-dispensers with yachts & such from selling carbon credits. a la A. Gore - the father of the internet.

     

    </snark off>

     

    HardToLove
    5 Nov 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Check this out (GTAT)
    5 Nov 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    GTAT might be worth tracking for trading but it doesn't look like a good candidate for long-term. The sapphire aspect of their business intrigues. Worth researching a bit.
    5 Nov 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Calafia has some good points he's making about what the Fed is likely to do, and why. I find his arguments fit what I have been expecting, and therefore I am probably suffering from confirmation bias, but...

     

    If he's right, and the Fed is about to execute a neat hat trick whereby it starts tapering AND manages to find an excuse to extend zirp indefinitely by simultaneously "tapering" its unemployment goals (this makes a surreal sort of sense, really, and that frightens me)... We could see the mountains of cash sitting (and sitting and sitting) start to move into more risky investments.

     

    $10trillion could "leave a mark" if it starts to move.
    6 Nov 2013, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    PS: Quote: "If the Fed gets its way - and I have little doubt that they will - then all of the things we've seen happen over the past several years will continue. The prices of risky assets will continue to rise, nominal GDP will continue to expand, and bank lending will continue to expand. C&I Loans are already up by one-third in the past year. Banks have been slowly relaxing their lending standards for the past year or so, and that is very likely to continue. We could even see a pickup in real economic growth, but it's not likely to be very impressive unless fiscal policy takes a turn for the better (e.g., fewer deductions, lower rates, cuts in the taxation of capital)."

     

    "As risk aversion declines, the price of gold - the classic refuge from monetary and political risk - could decline as well. Gold is still trading at more than two times its average inflation-adjusted price over the past century."

     

    Note: I disagree with this view of gold, and also with the idea that gold moves inverse to interest rates. This is one of Calafia's blind spots, odd really, since he is usually one of the few pundits who routinely seeks to modify long term tracking numbers with inflationary factors and deflationary currency impacts. The cost of mining (or even recycling) gold has shot up and the third world environment which supported low prices is simply vanished. It is NOT coming back...

     

    "The end game is still out there on the horizon. That will come when bank lending becomes aggressive and the amount of cash out there starts increasing faster than the world's demand to hold it. At that point inflation will begin to pick up and the Fed will need to start chasing it by increasing interest rates. Eventually the Fed will raise rates enough to boost the demand for cash to such an extent that the world loses its desire to engage in risky behavior, and the economy will turn down."

     

    I have to agree, although I believe we ARE seeing a new type of very risky bank behavior already operating at a high risk level - ie, European sovereign debt, and also provincial debt in China.
    6 Nov 2013, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
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    Trip: Jim Jubac had a 3 minute video out today in which he talked about a significant increase in bad loans at both major European banks, and Chinese banks.

     

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    And the sector rotation continues.... Once beaten nearly into nonexistence, the steel sector has been on a tear since August. (X) and AK Steel (AKS) are both up around 50%.

     

    6 Nov 2013, 07:04 PM