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  • QuickChat #214, November 18, 2011 173 comments
    Nov 18, 2011 5:33 PM
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  • Placed a 8% trailing stop on half of my (JAG) today. YeeeeeHaw!
    18 Nov 2011, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Ferguson: What is your outlook for JAG? I held it earlier in the year, but haven't looked at it in a while.
    21 Nov 2011, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Glad all doing well. Just a half glass gb reg ! LA loaded with gold ,but, BIG problems with indigenous peoples. They believe it is a mortal sin to remove the metals from the earth. Panama & Costa Rica an Brazil sometimes see the entire country shut down by the Indians protesting new mines an often shut down existing ones. Just gold dust for the thoughts ! gb
    18 Nov 2011, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Huh! [Confused sound]


    The 2x leverage on bull and bear ETF gold from Direxion (NUGT) (DUST) have just been automatically changed to 3X leverage. If you buy them on leverage, the margin requirement changes from 50% to 75%.


    Here are the other 2X leverage ETFs that Direxion changed to 3X leverage today. (BRIL, BRIS, INDL, INDZ, GASL, GASX, RETL, RETS).


    Zero Hedge points out this is a kind of margin call.


    So both the margin and leverage increase by 50%. I would think this would result in an increase in volatility.


    On futures, the leverage increase will impact how the options on these ETFs are priced going forward.


    What are these things?


    (BRIC) is the Brazil, Russia, India and China Index. These are the most ‘promising’ emerging markets in one index. It follows the 40 largest companies in these countries.


    (INDL) is the Indus India Index. This is designed to represent the Indian equity markets as a whole. The Index has 50 constituents, spread among the sectors: Information Technology, Health Sciences, Financial Services, Heavy Industry, Consumer Products and Other.


    (GASL) is a natural gas index… I have always loved the name of the bear component (GASX).


    (RETL) is a leveraged version of the Russell 1000 Retail Index.


    So Gold, Emerging Markets, Natural Gas and Retail (just before the holiday season).


    I would think the increase in margin requirements will cause these stocks to tank tomorrow. The amount of the drop should be proportional to the size of the margin positions. Is this a buying opportunity at the expense of the folks that have these on margins? I don’t know what is going to happen in the futures market.


    Is this simply a new form of margin call? The prices will have to increase, so those that have cash positions in these should pick up a nice increase. Will they attract more capital, as 3Xs. Is that what it’s all about? Or is it a leverage trap?
    18 Nov 2011, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • FPA, great post ! I was just reading that when your flag showed.Ya beat me again!
    It never ends an the game rules change fast now. I only trade 3Xs now an this expands my world................ thanx, gb
    18 Nov 2011, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • I knew you would be on this right away :)
    18 Nov 2011, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • u da man !
    18 Nov 2011, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • Well, i dipped my comments into US politics as I am in love with my 2 cents like others an as a Rep who knows we don't really have a candidate I assumed we did not have a chance ! But, even more of a worry was a third party candidate like Ross and that would sinch things for Obama ! Well, old narcissistic Dr. Paul seems to be leaning that way an then Obama wins a landslide..



    Then we have the new health care law after the 6 to 3 vote ( maybe 5/4) and Obama goes full swing with Executive orders. And, the black Karl Marx changes America forever. By the time he is gone the ethnic make change up will be in full swing and he will have done something with the massive Hispanic group to lock them into his party........ Sad, for the USA......................
    19 Nov 2011, 03:37 AM Reply Like
  • Now the "Donald" is making 3rd party noise. 4 way race an Obama wins 50 states !
    19 Nov 2011, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Hey folks .Today's joke ! US has new sanctions on Iran !



    Funny eh ! China has new " bartel" deal with Iran an can take all she has an swap goods she needs.. Sanctions... hmmmmm


    China also let Barry know not to fiddle in their neighborhood.
    Blink ? Wen or Barry ? gb
    19 Nov 2011, 03:55 AM Reply Like
  • Here is another chip in my OPEC - BRIC theory as China already trading with Iran an controlling Iraq.. Now brudda Vlad the destroyer getting into the mix.. And, we know he is finished with his old KGB days !



    Geitner will not get the 20 years he wants ! neither will all of you ! lol
    19 Nov 2011, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Well i think a strong Third party candidate can actually steal this election. Imho whomever that person turns out to be. All i see is plenty of disgruntled people that actually might do something unorthodox...


    19 Nov 2011, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Speakiing as a perrenial loser (Libertarian), we are a LONG way from any third party winning a Presidential post, at least for a nominee running under their own banner. The barriers to third parties that have been erected since H. Ross Perot mean that it is almost impossible for a third party to win many states. Just meeting the requirements to be listed AS a third party often requires a strong showing in the LAST election, a rule that excludes any new movements (like the Tea Party), or even long-time parties that simply did not pull 2% (etc, the rules vary wildly) of the total in that region last time out.


    The political density of the average voter's hide means that only the most costly ad campaign will penetrate (literal saturation bombing of the nation). The costs to mount a credible national Presidential campaign number in the billions, and even the major parties are laboring to raise the necessary funds.


    What Cain and Paul are doing this election - and what Voldemort did last election - is the method with the best chance of success... IE, masquerading as a member of one of the 2 dominant political parties, and diverting their powerbase to your own ends.
    19 Nov 2011, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • If the choice was Barry or Wen.. I choose Wen !
    I go with the better capitalist an both use rendition !
    19 Nov 2011, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • Paul raises some $ but he is not going to gain traction because he scares people. His record on international politics and US security terrify most people, imo.
    He won't take away many votes from republicans if he runs as a third party candidate, because he has so little support from them country-wide. What makes you think he will garner enough votes to be a game changer? More like a gnat that gets swatted, I think. I think that voting for him is equivalent to wasting a vote, what is to be gained from that?
    19 Nov 2011, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • OG, it doesn't take much. The Supreme Court rightfully gave Bush Florida as the final recount showed he edged Gore out,but, take the handful of Nader votes an give them to Gore an he would have been is President.
    The Election is not a national election. 44 states are set . it is the few battleground states and a right wing nut job like a Barr can siphon enough votes to flip a state ! gb
    20 Nov 2011, 01:28 AM Reply Like
  • There is no strong third party much less a strong third party candidate.
    19 Nov 2011, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • For all of us commodity investors here is a must watch pertaining to gold , silver , and copper...



    19 Nov 2011, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • OG


    You happy with the choices now??


    19 Nov 2011, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • I don't know what you are referring to. Happy with what choices?
    Ask again AFTER the primary when there is a republican candidate and a firm platform.
    20 Nov 2011, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Ok, I will ask it a different way, which Republican makes you feel comfortable to vote for right now....A firm platform??? All i see is a bunch of losers...You need more promises???


    We are in trouble with the group i see, imho


    21 Nov 2011, 01:26 AM Reply Like
  • The vetting process is just beginning. There's a whole year to go.
    21 Nov 2011, 02:25 AM Reply Like
  • MOP, does the democrat candidate make you feel comfortable. We may be in another situation of choosing between strychnine and hemlock.


    Which do you prefer to drink?
    21 Nov 2011, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • DG


    Neither !!!!! That is why i think were in big trouble, all is see is problems ahead, I hope your group does help make some changes. In fact i joined GOOOH just have no one within 45 miles of where i live. I get emails but sorry to say not big enough yet !!! Wish it was.


    I am drinking my physical


    Sold my SPXU at a nice profit from Friday to This morning....will await the right time to re-enter


    Like taking candy from a baby right now, imho
    21 Nov 2011, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • As of now (7:50 pm eastern Sunday) S&P Futures are below an important technical level, the 50 day MA. Looking at the S&P chart, the last 6 times the S&P closed below its 50 day MA, it dropped, in round numbers, 50, 20, 15, 60, 15, 200 points over the next several days.
    20 Nov 2011, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • FPA


    Thanks for posting this info, Very valuable, very valuable.....


    21 Nov 2011, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • how sweet it is !
    20 Nov 2011, 07:55 PM Reply Like
    20 Nov 2011, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • Been sitting on SPXU since Friday....
    21 Nov 2011, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  • Bought (FSC) at $ 9.49.
    21 Nov 2011, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • FPA


    Great move at i know that was your entry point, i just have a fear we still have more downside....imho


    21 Nov 2011, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Yes, I agree... I did not go all in with my total core target... Next buy point is 9.24...
    21 Nov 2011, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • The $600 million to $1.2 billion with MF Global reminds me of the lakefront sand scam in my own neighborhood. Newcomers want a nice unvegetated sandy beach (not env. friendly), which is illegal. So they order 20 tons of sand and payoff the hauler to put 10 tons on the receipt(s). Then the county fines them $1500, reviews the paper trail, and makes them dig out the receipted 10 tons, which still leaves 10 tons of nice, sandy beach.
    21 Nov 2011, 12:07 PM Reply Like


    I can't imagine how many other have done the same move, just hasn't been discovered yet !!!! Pretty scary thought !!!!


    21 Nov 2011, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Is it a risk off day?
    Or a leverage off day?
    Is there a difference?

    21 Nov 2011, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • It just might be a risk off week! The slope ahead looks slippery.
    21 Nov 2011, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • K202


    Black Diamond as i see it ......


    21 Nov 2011, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • Watching DDAIF and DDAIY. Looks like Y pays a little better on the div, not sure why. F has much better volume
    21 Nov 2011, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Amazing how people can draw conclusions based on "It's as good a reason as any.". That kind of thinking will almost certainly lose money going foreword. A much more plausible explanation is that EZ bonds are now widely recognized as toxic. A flight to the perceived safety of U.S. debt. One would think that the Stupor committee failing would increase risk thus elevating yield and decreasing price. That is not happening right now.
    21 Nov 2011, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Arrggh!!! Got greedy with KOG this a.m. trying to bank a little and got caught out. Should still see a little light the next day or so....maybe....this one seems to be getting hot-ter.
    21 Nov 2011, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Watch for buy out possibilities on Balkan oil companys by the golliaths. The Cushing pipeline reversal just made that oil much more valuable.
    22 Nov 2011, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • RBF


    Can you say MANIPULATION??


    21 Nov 2011, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • OK, good people...


    Current cash positions/%?


    Also, what about current major holdings or, rather, likes these days?


    I am about 75% cash.
    Holding only Lynas (added today) and IAALF(long) with tiny oil. Looking to increase oil spot asap with WLL and KOG....maybe a few others. Sold all techs last week. Will dig into seasonals as soon as this cloud passes (if it passes).
    Any recommendations for cash storage right now? I know you guys like PSEC, FSC...
    21 Nov 2011, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • I'm still holding core stocks, red stocks and some spec stocks. About 68% cash and only two bond issues.
    21 Nov 2011, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, RF. I should learn to hold red stocks...
    21 Nov 2011, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • RAIN


    Check out NLY as it trades in a narrow trading range for over 15 years and gives off a real nice dividend. Just not sure where the best price to invest in it. Consider dollar cost average into it ??


    Was pointed out on FOX by a mutual fund rep who is looking for safer trades for it's clients.


    22 Nov 2011, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Long_on_oil sent me an excellent article: Insight: Lessons for U.S. from Canada's "basket case" moment


    At a time when fiscal irresponsibility is running rampant in the US and around the world, this is a reminder that turnarounds can indeed be executed when elected officials do the right thing. It takes a look at Canada in 1994 when credit downgrades hit and the Wall Street Journal called Canada "an honorary member of the Third World" due to its budgetary problems. The "what, how, and when" may not be identical to our situation in the US, but the bottom line was that the new PM at the time (Chretien) was willing to risk serving only one-term as he "dramatically shrunk the size of government ---- rather than just limit the pace of spending growth." His results actually advanced his political career rather than hamper it


    I don't see any 2012 candidates yet with the backbone required to make hard choices like the ones Canada made -- but it inspires hope that greater fiscal responsibility can be achieved if the leaders with the strong will are in place.
    21 Nov 2011, 04:50 PM Reply Like


    I posted the same thought that we have NO candidiate with the backbone needed to change this country. That thought is scary as the FED will run rampant for another four years...


    IMHO i don't need a year to hear about a fallacy platform...I am looking for the Knight in white armor to come riding to the rescue and i am afraid it will be the headless horseman..


    21 Nov 2011, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • As long as the FED keeps flooding the world with monopoly money an buying all the Bonds the US Treasury dreams of selling Congress does not have to do anything. When the world vigalantes finally have had enough the group of baboons aptly named the Congress will act. But, as long as the FED acts they need not !
    22 Nov 2011, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • Just as occurred in the case of Chretien, the matter of the candidate's backbone will appear only AFTER they are in office.


    In the meantime, the choices boil down to issues and platforms. Tossing out Voldemort (and I do want to do that) leaves the various Republicans, with Cain and Newt notable for the depth of their plans to address the key issues, and their platforms available for all to see on their websites. Romney is the moderate alternative, and I have no expectation that he will surprise should he be elected, nor does his long laundry list of tweaks to the current broken system support anything more.
    22 Nov 2011, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • If there was any doubt about the severity of the drought in the South West....
    21 Nov 2011, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • It ought to be easier to find the fish since they probably have limited room to roam. I'm not advocating shooting the poor things in the barrel. I'm just thinking that the homeless folks may be finding food more easily this winter.
    21 Nov 2011, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • Come get the water fro NY.....WE have had enough already !!!
    21 Nov 2011, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • I second MPA's comment. It was the rainiest month ever here in August, of any month...ever. In August? Sheesh. Then along comes the rainiest September ever...and it's raining outside right now.


    No wonder the power is going out here seemingly ever other week.
    21 Nov 2011, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Okay, I can't hold back anymore. We need a pipeline system to pump water from where it is plentiful to where it is in need. We are willing to pay more for bottled water than for gasoline already. Why is it that we cannot see the need for a national pipeline that enables us to balance our water supply? Water is the oil of the future and the future in the SW is now. When the Mississippi or some other major river floods we could pump water out at multiple sources to lessen the potential damage downstream while providing much needed water to other places that are dry. I know it sounds crazy, but I think our economy could use the jobs and we all know that human suffering could be avoided and commerce could be expanded through better distribution of our water supplies. Nothing is free, of course, but why pay for the water? Just pay for the transport of the water to pay for the pipes. Surplus to shortage = balance and more even economic growth. Or are we just going to sit around and wait for the next dust bowl?


    Okay, I know that another dust bowl is highly improbable due to improvements in land management, crop rotation, etc., but I still say that if water is worth so doggone much we shouldn't let it go to waste in one place while it is in short supply elsewhere.


    Just my thoughts.
    21 Nov 2011, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • Water is totally different in terms of who owns water rights. It is a very involved issue. There is a huge body of writing on the topic. However, You are certainly right that it is a very important topic that is not being addressed properly. And, you are also right that dustbowl conditions do exist in 2011. We can learn from Israel, they are way ahead of us on farming methods, converting waste water to potable water, etc.
    Summer 2011 was particularly bad!
    22 Nov 2011, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • Great idea, Mark. But if I owned 1000 acres and it rained hard on my property, would I not want to gain rather then donate "my" water for the betterment of all US citz?


    Cheesy, I know...but...


    Really interesting question, because the Colorado River is going to run pretty much dry about a decade or three from now. Already doesn't make the Gulf of California. Think about the consequences if this occurs, and some of the southwest goes without the water, as well as the Hoover Damn, or Glen Canyon Damn, or Lake Havasu Damn lighting up Vegas and many other towns and smaller cities.


    When I misspell "Dam" more than once, I mean it!
    22 Nov 2011, 12:32 AM Reply Like
  • Again ! You guys have hit the mother of all investments an the only thing more valuable then gold. Asia an ME are leading the desalination ways ,but, if all were smart they would heed Rogers an Sorros or follow me an grab land with water instead of building portfolios of stock in US markets. I have said it all before ,but, buy tomorow I/WE will own no more stock an are moving on .


    I have put together several land deals down here an my clients are buying great tracts of usable wet land for the families and this will surley outperform stocks an keep up with inflation. These lands will be easily rentable an farmable and I will go full steam on my B&B.


    I really enjoy this thread an am so happy i found you gals/ guys ( with the exception of Ace Now Metals !) and I just wanted to say aloha to all.


    This should be my last posting day for quite a while as my 50 years in the market has come to an end. My 10 year dream to reach my $ goal happened in one year an time to move on !


    G-d bles you all and Shalom to you OG....................... bob
    22 Nov 2011, 12:36 AM Reply Like
    22 Nov 2011, 12:38 AM Reply Like
  • Once again, Capitalism has the answer. One of the primary blocks to the idea of pumping massive amounts of water long distances across the country is the varouis state governments. They (logically) tend to focus on their own citizens and their needs, and the disruption caused by large pipeline projects and the idea that "their" water is going to be sucked up and carted off to California just doesn't play well with the voters in Little Rock.


    First and foremost a realignment of thinking needs to take place at an institutional level in government. Water must shift from a "public right" to a "valuable commodity". Missouri might bridle at the thought that a new federal program is coming in to use their power to build loads of big pumping stations and pipelines to funnel "their" water from the Mississippi westward...


    But let's look at another analogy.


    The Southwest is in the middle of another nasty drought, but most of the state governments everywhere are in the middle of another KIND of nasty drought, ie, one where tax revenues are drying up and their budgets are looking like cracked fields of dessicating mud.


    PAY the states where the pumping stations are built (and make them regulated water utilities operated by private corporations). PAY the intervening states where pipelines cut across their territory (ditto the regulated pipeline utilities), and CHARGE the customers on the end of the line who get the benefit of the water.


    And yes, let us by all means use our brains and intergrate this new system with the existing flood control efforts along the major rivers. Also add intermittent reservoirs (perhaps in higher altitude desertified areas which lie along the route) which could be used to provide for water resources to level out demand, and at the same time provide clean hydro-electric energy (recapturing much of the cost of the pumping).


    There are science fiction stories based upon this scenario written when Jimmah Carter was President. Maybe its time we dusted off our old issues of Popular Science and "took the plunge".
    22 Nov 2011, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • OG


    In your opinion can it be piped or is the legislation so tough that it would take 10 years to get approval. We had water that essentially just ran into storm drains and took a week before it was back to normal.


    I was thinking the same thought that our local farmers were fine, although they have no method of storing it. But i know our water table is high as my parents backyard is wet because the water below the ground is soo high.


    I believe you live in Florida and have water that essentially gets wasted after all the storms you have, It seems like a great idea just not sure financially this country is ready for a project like this ..imho


    22 Nov 2011, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Are you talking about Dune?
    22 Nov 2011, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • Not exactly, but that's a good analogy. What I was referring to was old short stories built around the idea that the coming ice age (it was the 60's and 70's version of "global warming") would make our farmbelt states so dry they would have to pipe water in from the great lakes and the Mississippi.
    22 Nov 2011, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Maya - It is only your water if you capture it and you can only sell it if you transport it (or pay for the transportation) to the market where it is needed. And then you have to bear the market risk of price fluctuations. The only way such a market would work is if there were a central "utility" and exchange that provided all the services and lock in parties to sales and purchase prices (less the transport costs), imho. Of course, the government (as it now exists and operates both at the federal and state levels) would want to charge/collect something. They just can't keep their hands out of anything this huge even if it might ruin the whole deal. I guess it is mere fantasy to expect the government to act as "facilitator" and be happy with the taxes they would receive from all the new jobs and corp. profits.


    I'm sure that both federal and state governments, as well as local leaders, would be necessary to get anything of this nature planned and built due to the easements and inter-commerce concerns. Why can't we just go back to the good old days of the 1950s when the government decided to build the interstate highway system? I think that it would take just as big (maybe even bigger) an effort for a water pipeline system. But this comes under the heading of infrastructure and should garner the same level of priority, if deemed both economically feasible and advantageous.
    22 Nov 2011, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • K202


    On the last Hurricane that upstate NY caught 10 inches of rain in a day !!! Once you were able to drive down some roads the water was so deep on main highways AND the rivers weren't cresting for another 2 DAYS!!!!


    Needless to say the water was plentiful, for days, and if it could have been piped i swear no droughts would have been anywhere. We still have bridges wiped out that will not be repaired for god knows how long. The local library had water up to the SECOND floor.Not the first floor, the SECOND. Just to give you an idea how bad it was.


    Needless to say homes where wiped out that NEVER had a flood in their history. A shame we could not have used that water essentially from the mountains.


    21 Nov 2011, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • And the water table is being depleted in many agricultural states. We could pump the excess water back into the ground where it will still get used when there is no immediate need elsewhere. Water is the resource that will become scarce in the next couple of decades. By the time someone decides to do something about it, the suffering will have become too much to bear. That is how the system works, it seems. And then there will be a new industry created and a premium will be paid by those who can't afford it but must pay to live. If they can't pay for both the water and the transportation they will just have to go thirsty. Proactive collaboration between private industry and federal/state governments could create a system that can be more even-handed, allow a reasonable return on investment and meet the needs of our nation. I know that sounds like a regulated industry, doesn't it? But it should pay a decent dividend and have some modest, almost limitless growth prospects.
    21 Nov 2011, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • While it sounds good and would undoubtedly be profitable the political situation makes it nearly impossible to implement. Even the measures for flood control have been jeopardized by inroads by environmentalists organizations and their political allies. Some of the recent floods would have been prevented using flood control methodology that the system was designed to execute. Unfortunately the environmental movement has altered that program to return rivers to their "Wild state." as much as possible.
    22 Nov 2011, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • According to this, farmland prices are booming
    22 Nov 2011, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • Some are and some aren't.
    22 Nov 2011, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • It all depends on which farmland has ample water.
    22 Nov 2011, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • JS, there booming worldwide an I still say my side of the border is better for you amigo ! gb
    22 Nov 2011, 01:16 AM Reply Like
  • Nodding. Agreeing. Seeking details from the travel agency on places to visit ;-)
    22 Nov 2011, 01:38 AM Reply Like
  • Probably they will 100% say Boquete ! Top 5 on AARPs list for Expats in world. If that is on your itinerary I will be happy to show you the Province................. gb


    PS,Wife is spending day with large landowner neighbor who are renting houses next door. They are both Colombians an she went to grade school with President Martinelli an is real sharp. Will pump her for Colombian info ! gb
    22 Nov 2011, 01:44 AM Reply Like
  • Most of LA is worth a look an Asia not only bright spot !

    22 Nov 2011, 03:22 AM Reply Like
  • As the world turns an as she gets closer to finding the SDR basket of 8 from 4 moves are happening all around. Even this massive assault on Iran will speed OPECs need to get away from the dollar as the rest will see how easy it is to be isolated if they don't kowtow to the US.



    Another piece of the puzzle...................
    22 Nov 2011, 01:35 AM Reply Like
  • Ut oh...China housing hitting critical stage:


    Monday, November 21, 8:40 PM The level of property transactions in China's largest cities - down 39% Y/Y in October - has fallen well below the worst case scenario of stress tests carried out by banking regulators last April. An analyst who has seen the test documents says neither they nor the banks had enough appreciation of the extent to which loan collateral is tied to the value and turnover of real estate.




    This column has been aware for this idea to happen for over a year...with such aligned and cumulative predictive force we share have we another untimely reason for which to be wary about right now, and just about arriving right on potentially the worst time possible.
    22 Nov 2011, 02:31 AM Reply Like
  • Horsefeathers from the FT in Asia.


    The article cited by Seeking Alpha that your quoting is this one (after seeing that SA posted a link to CNBC which was a repost of an article on the FT's beyondbrics):


    Well, I read that article and clicked on the hyperlink from that November 21, 2011, article where it says: "In October, however, property transactions fell 39 per cent year-on-year in China’s 15 biggest cities, according to government data. Nationwide, transactions dropped 11.6 per cent, accelerating from a 7 per cent fall in September."


    That took me to a November 18, 2011, article with the data from the same author:


    The November 18, 2011, article says, "Official data published on Friday depicted a soft landing for the Chinese real estate sector, with prices for new homes dipping by an average 0.15 per cent month-on-month in the 70 cities monitored by the national statistics bureau. However, the trend was clear with housing prices falling in 34 of the cities in October, twice as many as in September... On the surface, the official data suggest that China’s property market is holding up reasonably well. In Shanghai, prices for new homes dipped 0.3 per cent from a month earlier. In Beijing, they were down just 0.1 per cent. But the numbers published by the statistics bureau are notorious for understating the true volatility in the market."


    Thus, the cited hyperlink for the data that there is a "39% drop" takes you to an article discussing government data indicating a ".15% drop" in the 70 largest cities. A relatively flat real estate market during a global downturn seems more in-line with the data I have heard from the region to-date. Until there's data to back-up that 39% drop from a source that is not simply a sensational news story, I'm not buying it. Also, the 39% cited (without data references) is a drop in transactions which is not a drop in prices; during economic pull-backs people may stop buying/transacting, but that does not by force cause lower prices. As my wife recently had to teach her high school students, journalists are beholden to tell a story, but are not beholden to tell the truth.
    22 Nov 2011, 06:51 AM Reply Like
  • Much like the Chinese and U.S governments. Do you trust their numbers any more? There is no transparency or methodology to keep them honest.
    22 Nov 2011, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Greetings Robert.B.Ferguson!


    I agree with you about government numbers. My problem is I do not trust the media to report good data anymore either. There is too much premium on sensational and tabloid reporting these days, and too little premium placed on integrity, research, and facts. There is zero in the article to back up that 39% number and his prior article from 3 days earlier contradicts that number.
    22 Nov 2011, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Jon, Springer: Greetings. You are right of course and these days there are no honest brokers as all seemingly have a separate agenda or political ax to grind. On a lighter note: I was concerned about reading my wife's mood swings so I got her a mood ring. We found that when she is in a good mood the ring turns bright green. When she's in a bad mood it leaves a big red mark on my fu$%^&@ forehead! I think I will replace it with a diamond. I got an email from a friend of a group of troopers armed to the teeth with a sign that said Occupy Bagrham! Quit your bit#$% and get back to work!
    22 Nov 2011, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Jon and Robert,
    I agree with both of you -- the smoke and mirrors will keep us guessing the real numbers for some time to come. And although the Chinese have their own problems, we cannot forget that they are still a key source of funding for the US. It is also a sad day when our Congressional/political failures inspire a warranted scolding from our deep-pocketed bankers:


    SA 11/22/11
    8:17 AM Chinese state media blasts U.S. politicians for ignoring the nation's debt issues that threaten market confidence around the world. Straight from Beijing: "Washington's political elites ... are obligated to muster the courage to defuse the ticking debt bomb and start to show the world they have the wisdom and determination not to further jeopardize the fragile global economic recovery."
    22 Nov 2011, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Jon & Mercy: Yepperee, can't tell you how many times a poster posted something in QC that draws immediate skepticism, and then a commenter or more links in obvious reasons to support said skepticism.


    I call it the "Wiki-effect."


    Seems this benign effect occurs within every offshoot we Renegades generate, too.
    23 Nov 2011, 01:38 AM Reply Like
  • Frontline (FRO) down 40% this a.m.


    Related FT article on Frontline and John Frederiksen
    22 Nov 2011, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • A couple of comments by Clemens Scholl on Frontline's issues today. I believe Clemens writes about the shipping industry more than anyone else on Seeking Alpha, although there are a couple of other people whose comments I'm watching for.


    Links to the two comments on his articles:


    Clemens Scholl's statements out of context:
    1) "I am not more or less confident of Frontline's survival than before. Fact is that Fredriksen has assured his support in a potential restructuring (as was the case with Golden Ocean) so there's no doubt in my mind that Frontline is not in danger of bankruptcy. What the market is fearing is dilution of future returns through an equity infusion at these prices. It will be interesting to see how Hemen, the banks and Frontline will structure this "restructuring". Good thing is that spot rates for tankers are creeping higher lately."
    2) "I wasn't able to follow the CC today, and haven't read the transcript yet. From the report I read this morning I understand that Hemen has voiced its support for a potential restructuring.
    How, When and If it will happen is not clear at this point. Frontline said it will run out of cash next year if the market stays at the current level (and everybody knows the market is volatile, though the oversupply of tankers isn't going away soon - unless a war or other geopolitical event suddenly changes ton mile demand and charterer sentiment). Frontline's convertibles trade at 40 cents on the Dollar ... I remember Golden Ocean doing a deal in 2009 with the help of Hemen involving their convertibles, which saved them. Frontline's convertibles are not that large in size compared to the overall debt of Frontline, but a lot of FRO's debt is also ring-fenced in ITCL ... which currently has no trouble meeting its covenants.
    The idea to separate the newbuilds into a separate company (maybe SFL) is interesting."
    22 Nov 2011, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • I heard that the reversal of the cushing pipeline means less tankers to the US and that is also hurting FRO. Increasing revenue but less trips is not good.
    22 Nov 2011, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Wow, TB the detail and textures on your illustration make it look 3-D!
    22 Nov 2011, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks OG. Its an older illustration published in the Pandora Magazine. Classic SciFi symbollism. Involved a symbiotic relationship as I recall...
    22 Nov 2011, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • WSJ op ed by Caddell and Shoen (pollsters)
    advising Obama to stand aside and dems to nominate Hilary.
    22 Nov 2011, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Wow OG -- now there is someone with backbone and ability to execute (even though I haven't always agreed with her.) Unfortunately I am not sure "equal opportunity" America is ready to support a competent strong woman as Leader in Chief -- just look at Corporate America's leadership composition. Thanks for posting very interesting WSJ Opinion Piece.
    22 Nov 2011, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • The part that caught me is that Caddell and Shoen wrote it. They are both Democrats and measure the pulse of public opinion.
    22 Nov 2011, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Cute Cartoon:


    Alternative plan to fix budget and deficits which Harry Reid would not allow to be presented:
    22 Nov 2011, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Freya has been under the weather... she wish’s everyone a Happy Thanksgiving.
    22 Nov 2011, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • FPA: Seasons Greetings: Thanks for the info and a very happy, healthy and enjoyable thanks giving to you and yours.
    22 Nov 2011, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • More indications of the on going flight to safety. The short maturity bond issue was well received even though yields were the lowest on record and the fed has been discussing inflation targets of late.
    22 Nov 2011, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • This means that a very good chance to buy TBT will be coming some day soon. When they quit holding the interest rates down low..... Serious opportunity.


    Hope to see the 10 year down to 1.6X. That would be a buying op for sure if flight to safety continues in increasing volumes we may see that too.
    22 Nov 2011, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Double, Guns: Seasons greetings and best wishes for an excellent thanks giving to you and yours. Will your Marine be home for the holidays? I'm seriously considering buying some in the next couple of days. Or maybe next week. Rates are at record lows and the EZ gets more precarious daily.
    22 Nov 2011, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Just dropped in to wish all a happy Thanksgiving when I saw Robert's plans.


    "Will your Marine be home for the holidays? I'm seriously considering buying some in the next couple of days".


    I wouldn't buy any of them Robert - they're hard to handle! >8-O)


    Happy Thanksgiving to all and don't "gobble" so much you get "stuffed".


    22 Nov 2011, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • H.T.Love: Seasons greetings. Best wishes to you and yours for a happy turkey day and a delicious repast. Shhhhh it's illegal to trade in Marines across state lines.
    22 Nov 2011, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • Rob, we will be visiting him. We go to Japan every year to visit my wifes family and all our friends.


    What are Marines trading for now a days. How much for older versions?


    Yes Happy Thanksgiving to all, Merry Christmas and Happy New year since I will not be here then.
    23 Nov 2011, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • Double, Guns: Have a great flight, enjoyable visit and safe return.
    23 Nov 2011, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Have a good trip DG! Will you be chasing monkeys again? Sounds like great fun ... for some! ;-))


    23 Nov 2011, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Yes on the chasing but not playing with the monkeys.
    23 Nov 2011, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • RBF


    Do you really think we have anything safe??


    22 Nov 2011, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • MAP: Seasons greetings. No. Even bars and bullion can be confiscated by Uncle Sugar as they were before. Only vintage coins were not.
    22 Nov 2011, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • But silver was not confiscated. Keep that in the back of your mind.
    22 Nov 2011, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Oh yea, back on silver if you worry about confiscation of silver too buy real silver ware, cups, candle holders and anything of use that is made of silver off ebay. Push for prices just above spot. Most is listed with the ozs of silver. Remember this is sterling silver so price it accordingly.
    22 Nov 2011, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • Sterling is .925 silver, or 92.5%. Antique silver objects and those from foreign lands (include Mexico in this, btw), even if stamped ".925" or "Sterling" may not be. Many of these that ARE mainly silver were made from melted down coinage and contain wildly variable percentages of silver (some very low, others close to 90%). I have encountered quite a bit of fake sterling in my day, be advised... A test kit is a good investment.


    Jewelry is another place to store wealth, note how the Indians, Arabs and now Chinese do this.
    22 Nov 2011, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • TB, Very good points. You will also find 80% quite common. Especially if its from germany.


    Here are the fakes.

    22 Nov 2011, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • Anything can be confiscated including:
    Freedom :
    <Overturning a common law dating back to the English Magna Carta of 1215, the Indiana Supreme Court ruled Thursday that Hoosiers have no right to resist unlawful police entry into their homes.>
    Tuna: <Man catches 881-pound tuna, seized by feds...A 754-pound tuna recently sold for nearly $396,000.>
    22 Nov 2011, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Oy, Gee: Seasons greetings and a most excellent Thanks Giving to you and yours. I can see this going to the supreme court but I have to agree with the author's dead letter quote regarding constitutional authority. "Badges we don't need no stinkin badges." also comes to mind. When you can only tell the cops from the criminals with a program we are truly in deep do do. Thanks for the link.
    22 Nov 2011, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • That Indiana SC ruling is repugnant to every person that believes in "inalienable rights" and the concepts the founders *tried* to espouse in limiting the damage done by states' power.


    TG I'll be gone before it makes it to my state ... I hope.


    22 Nov 2011, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • A ruling of that scope needs to be challenged in the highest court of the land.
    22 Nov 2011, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • This type of ruling will result in more murders of citizens. See below.

    23 Nov 2011, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • OG: Believe Massachusetts enacted the same law regarding police being able to forcefully enter someone's home if they suspected the owners of the home had a child who did not get the H1N1 vaccine.


    Has to due with some obscur provision from the Patriot Act.


    Terrible that the police no longer need a warrant.
    22 Nov 2011, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • Honduras builds (a second) naval base with US funds:

    22 Nov 2011, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • I spoke to a high ranking Officer in the NYC Police department and notice how they are now using riot gear on the streets???


    Just practicing for a future time just in case things get real bad, as he put it. Those protesting are essentially a practice target. Glad they caught that one cop just pepper spraying everyone just sitting down


    AND HE GETS A DESK JOB??? How about fired ???


    22 Nov 2011, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • MAP: Seasons greetings and a very happy thanks giving to you and yours. Those protesters were blocking a walkway sitting locked arm in arm. They had been ordered to disperse as their assembly was unlawful. The University Chancellor had ordered the police to disperse them so they were following the prescribed methodology for accomplishing that task. Would you have preferred Billy clubs? When those 60s style protests are confronted by police and do not follow legal instruction from officers they shouldn't complain when they are sprayed with pepper and or arrested as that is why they are there. In case you weren't aware of it civil disobedience has consequences. None of the officers involved should be subject to disciplinary action. Those protesters should be though. How about suspending the students and arresting the non student agitators?
    22 Nov 2011, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Using pepper spray also ensures that the police officers do not injure themselves lifting kicking and screaming protesters. I think anyone who has ever suffered an injury can understand that. Why should the police put themselves in harms way because someone "Wants" to be arrested.


    So be it. Spray away, arrest them and then shout "NEXT"!!!
    22 Nov 2011, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • RBF...
    Thanks for the input, then explain if he was RIGHT is using pepper spray why was he disciplined??? No i do not prefer billy clubs, i prefer this officer get fired!!! Obviously he did something wrong to be disciplined. So someone has the facts mixed up.


    anyway , everyone have a Happy Thanksgiving,,,


    22 Nov 2011, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • He wasn't disciplined he was temporarily benched because the Chancellor hasn't got the guts to stand behind her decision the disperse the protesters. Suddenly it's politically incorrect to use any force at all on people who want to be arrested and are resisting arrest. Police can break down your door in the middle of the night for any reason or no reason and there is nothing you can do about it in some states. Heaven forbid we should have them disperse an illegal assembly though. Those students have right you know! In fact they have more rights than you do. You don't have a problem with that?
    22 Nov 2011, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe the Chancellor thought it was unnecessary force?? Until my door gets broken down by the police then i will deal with that. Having family either Fireman or Police officers they all agree he went overboard. I guess if that was your daughter you would sing a different tune....or would you tell your daughter she deserved it ??? wow


    Disciplined or temporarily benched as you put it is the same thing!!! Done with this topic. If GOOH agrees with this treatment then i am glad i learned that as well...
    22 Nov 2011, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • FYI-Those kids were on campus in California, not sprayed by NYC Police Dept.
    22 Nov 2011, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • FYI-and where did i say NYC??? I was stating two different actions. Very surprised that a lot of you don't think that was unnecessary force, until it happens to a child or grandchild of yours....
    22 Nov 2011, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • I interpreted the response as inappropriate - an overreaction. Generally, police use pepper spray to subdue violent suspects or break up aggressive crowds, not to gain compliance from peaceful, non-threatening, non-compliant people. Pepper spray is a form of police force. It should be used with restraint, especially against those who pose no threat to officers or others.


    How many new protestors did they create by spraying a toxic chemical on students that were peaceably protesting? By this action they have created a cause célèbre. Giving protestors publicity is like providing oxygen to a fire. Dealing with protests is tricky business. Of course the student body is going to be outraged over this. By this overreaction Chancellor Katehi has created a mountain out of a molehill.


    By the way, that pepper spray can was industrial sized. It's designed to put down riots. It's not the mission of a campus police force to put down riots. If they have problems of that severity, they need to call in the city police. What the hell was that product doing on campus in the first place?


    Does this mean that campus police should be disarmed? No, they need to carry weapons and they need to be trained as police officers. But I don't see their mission as having the same scope as the city police force. Their function is to deal with immediate issues. There was no immediate threat here. I think the only pepper spray that should be appropriate for a campus police force is the individual pepper spray cans carried by all police officers.


    To me, the fundamental issue is the appropriate use of force. The proper use and amount of force is a balancing act. Use too much force and you will be crucified. Chancellor Katehi was calling the shots here. What qualifies Chancellor Katehi as an expert in the appropriate use of force? I find it hard to believe that someone that has reached the heights of the politically charged academic environment would act in such a non-politically wise fashion. If I was the Governor she would be in my office getting ten feet of her tail surface burned off and the riot act read to her.


    Am I a leftie? Hell no. If students do not obey campus police orders, they need to be expelled. Not suspended, expelled. There should be zero tolerance for disruption of the universities primary function. A small application of the 'little grey cells' should have led to a more measured response with the iron fist applied after the incident.
    22 Nov 2011, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • FPA


    I could not have said it better, I agree, expell the students, but a rent a cop doing what he did should be against the law. Nice try by some to put a spin on it and call it a temporary benching...Is that like a timeout chair ???


    Like i said he should be fired, what is this country coming to ???? Shame on a few knocking what our government does yet condone this action..Keep it up and that incident will go across other campuses like wildfire.....just watch !!!!


    I might add it WAS also done by a NYC Police officer a couple of months ago to three people who were sitting behind an orange fence that the police put up!! Then some renegade just came out of no where and sprayed the group, who were just SITTING!! I AM GLAD THAT COP GOT REPREMANDED. Yes a desk job.....


    If our country has turned into a police state already we are in worse shape than i thought. Very scary some who want change seem to talk out of both sides of their mouths. Happy to report those sprayed are suing the cop, he is garbage and give the good cops a bad name.
    22 Nov 2011, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • I don't know that I would fire the officer. I doubt he did what he did on his own initiative. Who told him what to do and who designed the policy behind that decision? I question the leadership of the Chancellor Katehi. She had to know what would happen by throwing gasoline on a spark. Of course this leads to the old question should force providers blindly follow orders?
    22 Nov 2011, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • FPA


    If we are talking the NYC cop it was reported he did it on his own, In Cali i am not sure...


    22 Nov 2011, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • I am talking about the campus cop.
    22 Nov 2011, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • <I spoke to a high ranking Officer in the NYC Police department and notice how they are now using riot gear on the streets???


    Just practicing for a future time just in case things get real bad, as he put it. Those protesting are essentially a practice target. Glad they caught that one cop just pepper spraying everyone just sitting down


    AND HE GETS A DESK JOB??? How about fired ???




    If you think it was clear from your statement that you were talking about an incident that happened in CA and not NYC, it wasn't.
    22 Nov 2011, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • and your point??


    If you condone either one , wow,,,,,If my writing confused you , then i apologize..


    But it happened in BOTH states and BOTH are bad moves by whomever did it!! If you think it's ok then that's your opinion..imo it isn't...
    22 Nov 2011, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • I don't think campus police should be armed. I had a friend that was a retired police Lt and he took a job as head of security at a small college. He was armed but his force was not. Of course, University of California at Davie's a large campus, unlike my friend's school. He mostly investigated petty thefts, some drug dealing, and an occasional sexual misconduct allegation (short of date rape type incidents).
    My friend's school didn't allow their campus police to be armed, it was because of the liability exposure. After all, lots of those kids are under 21, and the school acts in loco parentis. They have a duty to protect those kids, even if the kids are disruptive.
    It is coming out that this campus policeman is a bit of a rogue with several incidents in his background.
    My husband came home from Viet Nam and went to college after serving in the military.He came home to riots and sit ins, and was prevented from going to class. To this day, he resents the leftie professors who prided themselves for stopping classes and stirring the protests.
    I believe in the right to peaceably protest. When told to disband, they should obey.


    These kids were protesting the cost of tuition.
    They will all get out of school in hock up to their eyeballs and have limited job prospects. College is not supposed to be impoverishing.
    22 Nov 2011, 11:50 PM Reply Like


    Sorry my writing wasn't clear. That is my fault. I posted above because my computer did not download your whole posting. But again, neither one is acceptable to me,


    Our generation essentially ruined it for kids just graduating college who want to work, My daughter has a teaching degree and in NY the union has a rule that if you had tenure and were LET GO BUT HAD TENURE you have
    first chance at a position in that school district for 7 years.


    So my daughter will now go onto Grad school as that is necessary in NY. But these kids are our hope for change, to bring new ideas , to fix what we broke. They will suffer and i think they have a right to speak out!!! She has loans to pay, i am just lucky that she has worked almost everyday as a substitute teacher.


    However without a chance for benefits. I read here for a year how we need change. Hell, it won't be us working to dig out of this mess. I know my daughter will be one of them and i will support them all. Now it's your choice to decide whats right and wrong.


    I am annoyed because what chance will she get to teach with those odds. Does she need to move to another state?? And some wonder why they are annoyed??
    22 Nov 2011, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • My son's in college and studying Physics (plans on going straight on through for a doctorate) so he should be okay when he gets out primarily due to demand in his major.


    My daughter has time on her side since she is only in 10th grade this year. So, she still has at least 6.5 years before she'll get out of college. Unfortunately, she doesn't like math or the sciences (the only areas where jobs are still plentiful) so she'll need help from the economy between now and 2018. I think I read that things are supposed to get better by 2019 in a comment by Michael Clark based on his cycle research. I'm hoping he's wrong.


    Anyway, I do share your concern for the future of our children in this nation. Jobs are getting hard to find for the young and college isn't getting any less expensive.
    23 Nov 2011, 12:05 AM Reply Like
  • I don’t have a problem with campus police being armed. Forty years ago I would not have said that, but the world has changed. They need to be armed for their own protection. Than we have the immediacy issue. Sometimes things are going down very rapidly and time delays associated with a regular police response could cost lives. The issue here is not police carrying guns, the issue is campus police using inappropriate force at that point in time.
    23 Nov 2011, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • By the way, that college cop from U of C at Davis is on administrative leave, and that is PAID leave.
    23 Nov 2011, 12:32 AM Reply Like
  • MAP,
    My wife and I are in our late 50s, we moved out of L A, California seven years ago. My wife has been a teacher for 16 years, but since she changed from the LAUSD to a district in Riverside county she was laid off in the first round 3 years ago. She has been subbing and tutoring ever since, there are no full time positions available. She has a BA in education and a Masters in Psychology. She is taking another Masters in admin so that she is prepared for any type of opening that comes along. We feel your daughters pain, but have no answers. Most people do not understand that teachers are only paid for 9 months of the year, my wife was only making $35000 a year after 9 years of education while I was making $52000 a year with a GED as a long haul truck driver. Fortunately my pay paid for almost all of her schooling, we only owe $10000 for student loans.
    23 Nov 2011, 01:46 AM Reply Like
  • If they can't figure out when to put down the pepper spray, I don't want to arm them with tasers, billy clubs, or bullets.
    23 Nov 2011, 04:20 AM Reply Like
  • Makes you wonder if "To protect and Serve" has just become another meaningless catch phrase like "best practices" and "multitasking" are in the business world.
    23 Nov 2011, 04:51 AM Reply Like
  • Last Tuesday, a UC Berkeley student was shot and killed by Berkley campus police in the Haas School of Business computer lab.


    A staff member saw a student remove a gun from a backpack and called the Berkeley campus police. The police responded within five minutes of the initial call, and told the guy to drop the gun. The guy raised the loaded gun and was shot by one of the responding officers. At that time, four other students were in close proximity to the guy with the gun.


    What was this student doing carrying a gun onto the campus? Why did the student remove the gun from his backpack? Why was the gun loaded? What could this armed person do to other students with that loaded gun while people were waiting for the regular Berkley police department to respond? No way they could respond as rapidly as the campus police. This is the immediacy issue I was referring to. The ability to rapidly respond to a life-threating situation.


    Is it appropriate to send spray or Taser equipped officers up against someone with a gun? They told him to drop the gun, but instead he raised it. Could the officers have talked the guy into dropping the gun? I don’t know, but if an armed officer has a gun on a guy and tells him to drop his gun, and he instead chooses to raise it, he should expect to be shot.


    I hate the idea that campus police carry guns, but I can see the necessity for it. This is a different world from the one I was raised in, and I mourn the loss of that world everyday.
    23 Nov 2011, 06:26 AM Reply Like
  • The cheif of police at UCD is on admin leave when it was the Chancellor's decision to disperse the protestors. She won't own up to the consequences of her order or stand behind her police. She should resign. Regarding the protest they were there to foment confrontation with police so there should be no surprise that a confrontation occured. What should the police have done? continually repeat the pretty please go away that seems to be indicated as an apropriate response? Would that have obtained the results desired by the Chancellor? The other option was to ignore the protestors and go about business as well as could be done. The buck stops with the Chancellor. I wonder if there were outside agitators involved as is frequently the case. They are the ones who are never identified or made to pay consequences of any kind. Ultimately they are frequently responsible for the deaths of protestors and actually want that out come.
    23 Nov 2011, 10:02 AM Reply Like


    Thank you for that info and i will pass that along to her. She heard that down south there we teaching openings but she chose to just continue her education. I only wish her loans were 10k !!!


    You just feel real bad as a dad, helpless, when you see your only kid severly disappointed and really not understanding how bad it is in the economy....


    Being a divorced dad i don't get too many times to sit down and chat. So i support whatever decision she makes..
    23 Nov 2011, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Robert


    First, i want to thank you for filling me in on the facts. In NY we only saw a film cut of officers sitting around and then just ONE guy get up and pepper spray the hell out of all just sitting. Now if the Chief of Police was on ADMIN leave as well something really smells bad going on there....imho
    23 Nov 2011, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Foment confrontation? How about exercising their constitutional right to peaceably assemble? It's absolutely sad to me that anyone in this country could perform the mental gymnastics necessary to think that pepper spraying seated, peaceful protesters in the face is somehow a proper course of action.
    23 Nov 2011, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • JPAU




    23 Nov 2011, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • jpau: Greetings. While they have the right to assembly they don't have the right to infringe on the rights of others. If they were peacefully blocking egress to your home would you feel the same way? You would probably call the police to disperse the trespassers wouldn't you? Or do they have more rights than you do? I find it difficult to understand how anyone can do the mental gymnastics required to misunderstand the concepts of equality under the law and the rule of law. Those who wanted to use the side walk had equal rights as the protestors blocking it don't they? In fact those wanting to use the side walk were doing so within the law while the protestors were in violation of it. I hope that helps clear things up.
    23 Nov 2011, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Last I checked, blocking a walkway wasn't considered a heinous crime. Orders or not, blasting seated, peaceful protesters in the face with pepper spray or mace is a complete abuse of the trust we bestow on professional law enforcement. It is not the job of the police to mete punishment. There job is to enforce the law. The proper course of action, if the protesters were committing a crime, was to make arrests. If the protesters resisted arrest, then a case could be made for using pepper spray.
    23 Nov 2011, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Was shopping on Amazon and found a great stocking stuffer. Check it out. LOL


    someone please shoot me....aughhhhhhhhh

    22 Nov 2011, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • At a buck ninety-nine that's too expensive!


    DBK 2 big 2 fail German Style:


    Happy T-Day. Special shout-out to Freya, get well soon!
    22 Nov 2011, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • Akchully, y'all, the book is a satire of Obamadumb, er, Obamadom! Check out some of the excerpts you can find on the Web...
    22 Nov 2011, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • Frankly DG, I liked your last year's X-mas stocking stuffer, The Road Kill Book, better. Reminds me more so of how Obama is treating this nation's middle class.


    22 Nov 2011, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • Hi guys and gals,
    I wish you all a great Thanksgiving and leave you with the 2nd verse of the Star Spangled Banner.
    22 Nov 2011, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Egypt elections next week: Expect the Muslim Brotherhood voted in and then they will be very influential in the Presidential election next spring.


    Maybe it's time for the USA to stop Egyptian aid. Military is no longer in control they are on the defensive. Look for instability and trouble.


    ... As told by Charles Krauthammer
    22 Nov 2011, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • The cops are militarized.
    23 Nov 2011, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • Big difference between that and the UCD thingy huh?
    23 Nov 2011, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • It's too late for "justice", but at least there may be "compensation", albeit too little and too late.


    No punishment for the guilty, of course - the bill will be footed by innocent taxpayers who are also at risk from the "Protect and Serve" pseudo-military organization(s).


    8/17/11 "Jose Guerena's Family Sues Pima County Over SWAT Raid Killing"



    A little more background on Wikipedia.



    IMO, these sorts of things are a direct result of the extension of federal power such that state and local *police* organizations, which are supposed to have different objectives, concerns and operational parameters and styles than a military organization, become operational arms of the "feds" and, as is common among all organizations, the ethos and attitudes of the group to which they "belong" are adopted wholesale.


    The 287g program is a small example.


    Homeland security (which operates in violation of the constitution IMO) trying to make every individual, company, organization a "spy" for them is another.


    FBI with warrantless wire taps and ... I could go on, but there is no point.


    23 Nov 2011, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • OG


    I saw a man get arrested for stealing in a dollar store. I was appalled by the action of the arresting officers. The man was not fighting the arrest one bit, in fact looked embarrassed and to see the city cops throw him to the ground, twirl him around, and shouted at a women filming it with her phone to stop it immediately or he would arrest her.


    For what??? People were screaming in a decent neighborhood to let up on the guy and they picked him up by his handcuffs and threw him into the back of the car hitting his head on the top of the door.


    I am telling you it is getting scary out there!!! My brother was pulled over for some reason driving and his treatment was horrible until he showed his badge.....It is like they are under different orders for some reason...
    23 Nov 2011, 12:40 AM Reply Like
  • Six degree of separation now down to 4.74; as you guessed it, mostly due to social I-net sites, like Facebook:

    23 Nov 2011, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • (November 23, 2011) Australia Lower House Passes Mining Tax as Greens Back Bill. From: Bloomberg Businessweek, by Ben Sharples


    Australia’s lower house of parliament passed legislation for a 30 percent tax on coal and iron-ore profits.


    The Minerals Resource Rent Tax Bill faces a vote next year in the upper-house Senate, where the Greens hold the balance of power, to become law.
    BHP Billiton Ltd., Rio Tinto Group and other iron-ore and coal producers face paying about A$11 billion ($10.8 billion) in extra charges in the first three years of the tax. Australia’s iron ore shipments surged to a record A$6.3 billion in September as demand from China and India for raw materials helps power the Australian economy.


    “The mining tax package is a fiscal train wreck in the making,” Mathias Cormann, treasury spokesman for the opposition Liberal-National coalition, said in a statement.


    The government has said proceeds will reduce the corporate tax rate to 29 percent from 30 percent, provide A$6 billion in spending for roads, rail and ports, and help increase the amount paid to people’s retirement savings to 12 percent of their salary by 2020 from the current 9 percent.
    23 Nov 2011, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • Great news for American and Canadian coal and iron companies. China will shop that business to cheaper sources in a heartbeat. Indonesia will stand to gain as well, as will Mongolia (I bet Jon is already on the job there). This is also another reason why Australian miners are increasingly choosing to explore for deposits elsewhere (similar to the Canadians), and choosing to build their primary processing plants offshore (Lynas and their new LAMP in Malaysia, supplied by raw materials from Mount Weld in Australia).


    This move has been in the cards for over 2 years, and should be considered part of the 2012 negotiations between China Inc. and the Australian miners.


    The Australian government's rosy revenue projections will, as usually happens, fail to materialize, as their taxing targets experience a shrinking business situation created by the higher taxes. When this becomes apparent by the end of 2012, look for the government to commit the next mistake which usually follows this dark comedy: Increased taxes as they keep chasing after their promised revenues to fund the social support goodies. A downward spiral occurs.


    This will add a cattle prod to the rapid mutation of Australia's major miners into soulless multinationals concerned with how quickly they can move most of their operations offshore. This process takes years, even decades, but once initiated, it is difficult to reverse. One day Australia will be looking at severe budget deficits and their leading companies will be 10% Australian and 90% global, and they will be begging for them to repatriate earnings so they can be taxed (if this resembles the current sitrep in the U.S., its because we are well ahead of Australia in this process).
    23 Nov 2011, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • I wonder if politicians ever analyze history. How many times do they have to do things that sound good on paper but are proven to be bad ideas around the world before they get it?


    The good news from the Mongolia side is they have tried a special tax on mining (2006) and repealed it (2010) after seeing the havoc it brought. Hopefully, the memory of the ill-advised mining law in 2006 will rest deeply enough in political memory for a generation. Albeit now, if they start to forget, assuming this law passes Mongolia will be able to look at Australia for an example of what doesn't work in a few years.


    In addition to BHP and RIO, there are 9 smaller Australian outfits in coal and iron-ore operating in Mongolia (there was 10 until Hunnu Coal was purchased by Thailand's Banpu (BNPJF.PK).


    Mongolia passed Australia this year as the largest exporter of coal to China, although Indonesia is also in that mix.


    I had been invested in Indonesia PBMRF.PK earlier in the year but was warned by someone that some of their business methods are believed to follow a Sicilian methodology (a method that has worked well for centuries, but not one I necessarily want to count on).


    Added that news item to this week's Mongolia update and an article I'm working on. Thank you FPA!


    Back to wrestling with cleaning the household and a frozen balling ball of a turkey.
    23 Nov 2011, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • ALERT!!!!


    This is good news for silver bugs. Lets hope it is truely going to happen. JPM might get stabbed right in the heart on this one.

    23 Nov 2011, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Sprott...


    Interesting. For myself, I'm still unsure whether he's an outsider looking in, or an insider judas goat.


    And the headline number - $1.5billion in physical silver - is just a maximum, not whatever actual orders get placed.


    Short term I WOULD expect this to pump up silver prices some, maybe 15% or more.


    Beyond that, the crystal ball becomes scary and cloudy with a chance of CME thunderstorms.
    23 Nov 2011, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • I think he plans to cut the legs out from under the CME by buying direct from the silver miners as he sells shares. That was what I got from that. Wonder if CME could get no silver for sale because sprott bought the majority of it if CME would suffer or would they get uncle sugar to somehow impose some sanctions as a result.
    23 Nov 2011, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Look for position limits to be imposed in a big way, and more margin fee/calls, should it go that far. Its also likely that we will see hitherto suspected (like urban legend) relationships between the various major precious metal markets come crawling out of the woodwork. Shipments of silver from Europe and Asia to bail out their fellow-travelers in Chicago.
    23 Nov 2011, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • JPM might get the knife, but it won't just be Sprott. China is opening the PAGE exchange in 2012. Sprott has to sell shares to add silver to his ETF. China has to add to existing inventory to be able to sell physical metals. London, Comex, JPM and MS are not afiliated with the PAGE exchange and they will be selling in RMB!!!! Warning: if you don't hold it you don't own it, doesn't matter where you buy it.
    23 Nov 2011, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • SD


    Mike Maloney has been saying for years the same thing. You need to own the physical, the paper will be worthless one day.. It is like playing Russian roulette with your own money!!!


    23 Nov 2011, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Bonds of all types are beginning to see erosion as debt is perceived as unsustainable and governments scramble to shore up balance sheets. Bond vigilantes are now hammering German debt which doesn't bode well for any EZ sovereign debt issue going forward. (TBT) is looking better daily. No place to run but a less than perfect home looks better than a broken one so the flight to USD assets will continue for the remainder of the year IMHO. However be nimble as those same vigilantes will arrive on our shores eventually.
    23 Nov 2011, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Rob, I think a lot of those bonds are the result of banks selling debt to each other in an ever increasing pyramid of debt they each then carry as an asset (bonds) on their books. Now that is about to unwind and they are finding they have very little assets to debt causing a huge problem. Wonder which ones will be sharing a cell with Madoff. LOL


    Circle jerk comes to mind.
    23 Nov 2011, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Tight trailing stop on (JAG) was triggered this morning resulting in half of my shares being sold @ $7.08. Reinitiating stop on remainder.
    23 Nov 2011, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • I like the bond shorts long here, as well. I have dabbled in TMV as of late. I know many here like TBT. Any opinions on comparisons between the two?
    23 Nov 2011, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • (TMV) is triple leveraged, (TBT) is double. So you gain/lose faster with the triple.


    Be sure you understand the rebalancing that occurs - these are short-term instruments that erode over long-time periods as the necessary adjustments are made. I.e. "tracking error", small but significant over time.


    23 Nov 2011, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Lots of stocks are looking downright tasty right now. Cappy @ .93, Zalicus @ .92, Sangamo @ 2.48, URRE @ .81.


    Great Panther slipping back...even BAC is looking like a steal.


    I'm not touching anything.
    23 Nov 2011, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply »


    New QC is this way, but going fast...
    23 Nov 2011, 12:42 PM Reply Like
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