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  • QuickChat #216, December 9, 2011 190 comments
    Dec 9, 2011 10:44 AM

    "You're So Thoughtful" by stan bruns

    (Seemed apropos, given the odd bedfellows holding the current pajama party in Europe).
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  • Author’s reply » Comment from prior QC by Mayascribe:


    Guess it's getting close to prediction season. Remember last year when several analysts predicted Capstone was going up by more than 100% this year? Zalicus by 250%? Heck, I believe my favorite pick was Great Basin Gold in my 2011, 50% Or Greater Insta.




    TAMO is the other stock I own that I believe can be a 1000 to 2000% returner. We all know the other one.


    But, with TAMO the risk is far higher. I don't rule out anything from bankruptcy to TAMO being a $6.00 stock by 2016.


    Although Great Western sneaks in there of being another 1000% gainer by 2016, considering its present price.




    But for next year, I'm sticking with Axion Power as my top pick for highest percentage gain. I'd be somewhat miffed if Axion is not at least a $1.50 by this time next year; about a 400% plus gain from today's pricing.
    9 Dec 2011, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • I'm with you on TAMO, GWM and AXPW, Maya.


    I never committed much to Capstone over the past year, but right now I am about flat for the year because I took profits a few times on that one. These stocks always have delays and take longer to blossom than we hope.


    I am liking IAALF for another pick for 2012 growth.
    9 Dec 2011, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • This could be3 it for Light Squared. Since this is a Carlotta company I wouldn't be surprised if the FCC intentionally opens it's self up to a law suite to prevent a capital loss to the investors. Would that be called a Capitol loss for the tax payers like Solyndra ended up?
    9 Dec 2011, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • TB: In case you haven't yet read this, over in the Axion Concentrator it has just been posted by John Petersen that Norfolk Southern has confirmed Axion's PbC battery as best battery for its road locomotives.
    9 Dec 2011, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Hmmm, tIme for another 20k order.
    9 Dec 2011, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • TB: I don't know whether to be surprised or not about how many people I now know have over 100,000 shares; more than I can count on two hands.


    I'm beginning to believe its getting to more than I can count on two hands that have over 200,000 shares. I'm also beginning to think that one of Axion Power's best assets is the Concentrator. Stupefying, in a way, some foriegn painful kind of pleasure for me to ponder!


    How much is this new "cyber form" of goodwill worth? Is it even quantifiable?


    Then there is what FPA brought up via PM, and that's back to the argument of how SA values Concentrators like your fabulous REE thread, as well as so many other threads we Renegades have created.


    I'm just wondering when the day will arrive when I have to fire up two concentrators in the same day. Started one up yesterday. Looks like another one will be up and running tonight.


    I need to start borrowing your art! I only have so much John Cleese material!
    9 Dec 2011, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • I have high hopes that I will be able to get my studio put back together this month and have at least 2 months production before I have to hit the road selling again. My basement cave/studio suffered a nasty disaster this year when one wall collapsed after a thunderstorm which featured 6.8 inches of rain in 2 hours (!) and a lightning bolt apparently nailed a tree which had a large root running along the footing of my basement. The root exploded and took the 12 foot section of wall with it. The resulting inrush of water and mud did untold damage as well, including loads of my original artwork. I am just now getting operational again...


    I am now following John's new insta/article (frankly, I'm not sure which it is, I hope its an article so he's getting paid, but either way, I'm there) about the Bernstein and Ricardo Report on EV's. I believe the importance of what he and you are doing with these topics transcends the medium by light years.
    9 Dec 2011, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry to hear that you are going through such a hard time, and especially sorry for the loss of your artwork. I hope some of it can be saved, you are certainly a very talented artist.
    9 Dec 2011, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks OG.


    Having artwork destroyed that took years to draw was a blow, but I have prints of most of them, and again most of them have been captured with a high resolution scan, so the image (vs the original rendering) is not lost.


    When I was younger this event might have taken me a long time to recover from, but now its just another bit of proof that explains my reaction to people telling me how "fortunate" I am... Laughter.


    My next phase for my artwork will be to move hugely up-size, with large canvas and panel work involving a combination of collage, impasto painting, heavy relief carving, and large brush impressionism... LOL, assuming it works. Just as with most of my artwork, I have a clear vision of where I want it to go, but success is never guaranteed!
    9 Dec 2011, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • TB: Wow! All in "one fell swoop"!


    Sure sorry to hear about that destruction.


    It sounds like you were lucky it didn't take a part of the house as well.


    Sounds like you had your own private tsunami with fireworks tossed in for "added entertainment value".


    Good luck on getting everything back to "normal".


    9 Dec 2011, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks HTL. The very best part was that insurance covered none of it. If there are no traces of a lightning hit (melted wiring, distorted plumbing, etc) they won't listen to the idea that a near miss did the damage. Its "Hmmm, looks like defective construction". Be advised, most home insurance policies are just placebos.


    I have NEVER had a claim (though obviously I tried in this case) after owning my own home (and other real estate) for 40 years. Imagine what that same money could have done in a self-insured investment account...


    Oh well. Just my Libertarian fangs showing a little I guess.
    9 Dec 2011, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Holy crap on the insurance. That's totalling disgusting.


    I would've been fit to be tied.


    I would speed dial the state insurance commissioner, my lawyer, my house mechanic, my arms dealer ... OOPS.


    9 Dec 2011, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • TB did you consult with a public adjuster?
    You have nothing to lose by doing so. Most of them are paid a fee out of the settlement they get, a contingency fee, I think. It's certainly worth a phone call.
    9 Dec 2011, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Trip: I recall you mentioning this disaster months ago. Sorry to hear it wiped out some of your original pieces. I am amazed your insurance company didn't send a check.


    Not that this applies to your situation, but I suggest you and all to look into American Home Shield. They cover everthing from hot water heaters to garbage disposals. When my 25-year old oven started shocking me, I called them. For $60 they sent a repairman out, and he would have replaced the faulty parts. Except, the thermostat on the oven was no longer made. I got a new oven and microwave out of the deal. And better, I was able to upgrade, and because of American Home Shield's buying power, was able to buy a double oven with a range top, all the bells and whistles, plus an over the range microwave, with convection cooking, for about 20% less than Best Buy's best price. American Home Shield credited their replacement cost toward my new purchase.


    Of course, I have to pay to bring in a 220 line, but that's my doing.


    I could have elected to get an equal and new replacement for just the $60 repair fee. With aging heating, air conditioning and heat pumps nearing their term (I have two of each), for the $495 annual fee, I expect over the years to make out nicely. American Home Shield is incredibly pleasant to deal with.


    I can't figure out how this company makes money.
    9 Dec 2011, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • trip: Your disaster sounds like a classic Black Swan! Who would have thought THAT could happen? I hope your insurance picked up at least the house repair portion of the damage.


    Good luck!
    9 Dec 2011, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Wow, I wish I had American Home Shield.


    Last month my washing machine (18 years old) died, so I replaced it and the dryer. (My wife informed me that despite the dryer working perfectly, "they must match". Of course. No telling who might wander down into our utility room and get shocked at the sight of mismatched appliances).


    2 days after the delivery guys brought the new washer/dryer, the (9 year old) dishwasher busted a hot water line and filled the kitchen cabinets 4 inches deep with hot water. Thank god we were home and heard the sound of water running in the middle of the night, this could have been a big problem. I successfully repaired the 3 hoses and 1 short wire connection (parts plus overnight shipping only cost $159, God help us), though the morons who originally installed the unit made the process a LOT harder than it needed to be (I mentioned this earlier on this blog somewhere)...


    Anyway, not 30 minutes ago the microwave oven stopped working.


    They say these things come in 3's, so I guess this fills my quota for the year.


    AHS is DEFINITELY hearing from me, Maya. Hey, they should give me a discount. Last year I replaced the hot water heater and both central heating/cooling systems. The year before the refrigerator and all the windows in the house...


    Its like the mythical used car, a real "creampuff".
    9 Dec 2011, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • Missed the story before. Sorry TB to hear about it. Any chance of making pottery from the mud. Making lemonade from lemons so to speak.


    Just trying to bring some humor to the equation not trying to be snarky, (my usual self). Hope all works out. I liked Mayas comment about American home shield, I never heard of them before.
    9 Dec 2011, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • No. The insurance denied the whole thing.
    9 Dec 2011, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • trip: Don't forget to try cycling the microwave power OFF and ON. That fixed mine after a month of timing errors. I felt foolish afterwards. I mean, it's got a computer in it!
    9 Dec 2011, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • TB: Seasons greetings. I hope that it all works out well. Have you considered a law suite against your insurer?
    9 Dec 2011, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Robert: Yes. But proving my theory is essentially impossible. Such an event leaves little physical evidence (steam and blown apart concrete block). Photos show a cracked wall with a black hole running along the bottom where the block was destroyed. I have "circumstantial evidence" but no case is what I was told. I dropped the whole thing and hired a cleanup crew, then an engineer to come in and stabilize the house, then a crew to dig down to the foundation and rebuild the wrecked wall. Over 20k later, it was all fixed and water tight again.


    Now I am replacing messed up studio equipment, and digging out from a mountain of salvaged gear (we had to use the undamaged portion of the studio to store everything which had to be moved to fix the wall). Its almost... archaelogical. I keep finding stuff I did 30 and 40 years ago and being surprised that I did those things. (LOL, some of them are pretty good).


    OG: No, and perhaps I should have. At the time I was reacting to the disaster and trying to save the house and my artwork (succeeded at the first, failed at the second - something had to give). After the fact we took photos, but when I ran them past the engineer and an attorney, it was just not good evidence. I checked and the guidelines for getting compensation for a lightning strike requires evidence that it hit the structure and caused the damage. In the case of a tree falling on the house, its not a problem. But something getting vaporized in the ground and blowing through a wall just doesn't leave anything inside the building our outside (after a unique heavy downpour) to prove the cause.


    Its like a plane crash which has no physical evidence to tell the investigators why it suddenly nosed down and slammed into the ground. Lacking any other evidence, humans are blamed IF not just a mystery (and insurance companies don't cover you for mysteries).


    The water damage portion was termed "flood damage". Even though I live on top of a hill over 1000 feet above sea level and far above any river or water source that could flood my house. In fact, about the only way I COULD have water damage is the manner in which it happened, a downpour (standing in my garage I could NOT see my car parked 20 feet from the garage, for over an hour) so extreme it caused the entire county to be declared a national disaster area happening at the precise same time when "something" triggered an underground explosion that blew out my basement wall. Had the lightning strike (and there was one, I was standing in the garage when it hit, and the earth moved and I was stunned by the sound) occurred AFTER the downpour, water damage would have been minimal, even with a 10 foot long hole in the wall.


    Fortunate indeed. The perfect storm.


    But thanks for the commiseration. I have put this episode behind me, and now I am rebuilding my studio. I have been a long time trying to do artwork on a little folding table or flat on my lap sitting in a chair, so this will be a pleasure to once again have a functional studio where I can paint and create. Looking forward, not back.


    LOL, and now that I have filled my yearly quota of broken appliances (or at least, I will when I purchase a replacement microwave - oh, and yes, I did cycle the power on and off, all the buttons and lights work, it just doesn't emit microwaves anymore).


    Research: Top ranked 2cu' model is a Sharp $530E and the 1.3cu' model is a Kenmore 6633. I haven't decided whether we need the full size model or not...
    10 Dec 2011, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • "Anyway, not 30 minutes ago the microwave oven stopped working."


    Haven't you heard of "smart appliances"? They are no so much "smart" as self aware -- and they are very petty and jealous. If you replace one item you're sure to hear from the other items in short order. Your wife probably did you a favor by making you replace the dryer. Do you know what a pissed off dryer can do?


    Very sorry to hear about your string of misfortune, but especially about the artwork. I was glad to hear that at least you have retained reminders of the original renderings.


    [On an unrelated note, I've been out of the loop for a while, but I'm planning on coming back and making my inane comments more regularly in the future.]
    10 Dec 2011, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • I had an attack on my own artist's nest. Of all the things that could have happened in my dusty desert, my apartment got flooded. The next door neighbor's water heater busted whilst I was away for Thanksgiving, and I got to experience the joy of coming home to a soggy apartment after vacation. Lovely.


    Thanks to my father and brother, the place is just beginning to look half-way normal again. I am fortunate enough to have USAA's renter's insurance, so I'm covered thankfully. I hope all goes well for you. Take care.
    11 Dec 2011, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • Good to see you again DM! I hope all is well with you.


    I hope those self-aware appliances don't develop egos. We'll be in real trouble if they do.


    11 Dec 2011, 07:16 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks Spawn. I hope you didn't lose too many of your originals.
    11 Dec 2011, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • WOW TB! Sorry to hear about loss. I guess that would be the "storm damage" that mentioned to me. You mentioned it so casually that I just assumed it was garden variety leaky roof, caving ceiling, flooded basement type stuff. If I had lost my original artwork and all the time you had to have invested in that cave, I would be quite upset. I wish you the very best in getting all of that resolved.
    12 Dec 2011, 05:08 AM Reply Like
  • LOL! Sorry TB. I'm not laughing at you buddy. I'm laughing because your life sounds remarkably similar to mine. I go around telling friends and coworkers my stories of mayhem and they laugh, "It could only happen to you Lewis! hahaha!" And I thought they were right until now. I tell them all, "Everyone needs to be me for just one week, then you'll all understand!" :-)
    12 Dec 2011, 05:21 AM Reply Like
  • See what I mean TB? My insurance company gave me $1k. REALLY?!?! OK, $1k is $1k, but for settlement on $15k-$20K in damages?!?! They gave me some guff about named occurrences and acts of god and that garbage. They really are unreal.
    12 Dec 2011, 05:25 AM Reply Like
  • My deepest condolensces, egg. Only those such afflicted can appreciate the dark cloud which eclipses our sun on these occasions!
    12 Dec 2011, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Re Mercy's comments on the SGD...


    Was there on business in May and remain quite impressed with their commitment to fiscal and monetary responsibility. Another way to play future progress in this area / regression of US$ is the Wisdom Tree Asia Local DEBT ETF (ALD). You get a basket of countries' debt in local currency -- as of 30 November,
    Malaysia 11.34%
    Thailand 11.30%
    Real Korea 11.09%
    Singpore 11.03%
    Australia 11.00%
    Indonesia 10.97%
    Hong Kong 5.81%
    Philippines 5.81%
    China 5.77%
    New Zealand 5.56%
    Taiwan 5.49%
    India 5.36%
    Yields are better than US Treasuries (average maturity 3 1/4 years, yield just under 3%, 50% of holdings not rated, 28% AAA -- higher than US,) and it provides me with currency diversification with a 0.55% expense ratio. I use it and other such ETFs in most client portfolios and my own to provide a cushion of income with a kicker that it isn't in US$s.


    If your DD leads you to agree, be forewarned -- some US investors often sell that furrin stuff if the markets fall, no matter how high the quality or good the hedge, so expect some volatility that you wouldn't see in USTs.
    9 Dec 2011, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • This is a must read, imo. It addresses that MF GLobal is just one where your funds weren't safe. (Everyday I think how lucky I am to have closed an MF Global account before the shtf.) If you have stock or funds in any of these companies,read this article and decide if you want to re-think that:


    <Engaging in hyper-hypothecation have been Goldman Sachs ($28.17 billion re-hypothecated in 2011), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (re-pledged $72 billion in client assets), Royal Bank of Canada (re-pledged $53.8 billion of $126.7 billion available for re-pledging), Oppenheimer Holdings ($15.3 million), Credit Suisse (CHF 332 billion), Knight Capital Group ($1.17 billion), Interactive Brokers ($14.5 billion), Wells Fargo ($19.6 billion), JP Morgan($546.2 billion) and Morgan Stanley ($410 billion). >

    9 Dec 2011, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks OG. And no, I have no money with any of them. Thank goodness.
    9 Dec 2011, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Oy, Gee. I moved some capital into a wells farg stable return fund (WFSTZ) on Monday. I'm not moving it to another fund as there is no telling which ones may be decimated when this explodes. It's about as close to cash as I can get in a 401K.
    9 Dec 2011, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Currencies diversification as advised by Merk(M) and Schiff (S) in a joint report,organized by location:
    New Zealand Dollar-M
    Australian Dollar-S
    Norwegian Krona-S
    Swedish Krona-M
    Swiss Franc-S
    Singapore Dollar-S
    Chinese RMB-M


    The report is free from Schiff's website, and probably on Merk's too.
    Schiff also advised the Hong Kong Dollar, if it pegs to the Chinese RMB would be good, but it is currently pegged to the US Dollar.


    Both Merk and Schiff think the USD is in worse shape than the Euro.
    9 Dec 2011, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • It's hard for me to imagine any currency outside of Zimbabwe being in worse shape than the Euro. After all the USofA isn't likely to dissolve before the 2H 2012.
    9 Dec 2011, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • But the interest on the US debt is something like $4 Billion a day (don't quote me because I'm pulling that number out of my head, which isn't reliable.) The USA is printing where Europe isn't (YET!) It's a case of "pick your poison". Eventually they are both lethal.
    9 Dec 2011, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • That is one reason that the USD looks better at the moment than the Euro. We can print they have a much harder time printing. Not that it's a good way to deal with the situation. However not dealing with it at all is much worse and seems to be what the EZ is doing. They will be asking for more USD very soon.
    9 Dec 2011, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Well the report I referenced is worth reading, because, of course, you can change your allocations to take into account short term market moves based upon macro conditions Robert,Ferguson. Personally, that is way too complicated for me. The report
    is called Five Favorite Currencies. By the way, they also had a "wild card" category. Merk suggested Canadian Dollar ( if they separate from the US economy) and Schiff suggested Chinese RMB.
    9 Dec 2011, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Now we see the real story concerning the value of gold you do not have possession of and if (GLD) is safe. Remember MF global, they have helped clear the muddy waters and gold not in your hand quite possibly is NOT gold and its possibly NOT YOURS.

    9 Dec 2011, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • DG that's the second article on "rehypothecating" that I read this morning, thanks for the link. ( The link I furnished above also is about this topic.)
    I never heard the term before. Is this the black swan?
    9 Dec 2011, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Indeed it is the black swan.
    9 Dec 2011, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • This would seem to be the natural upshot of MFGlobal stealing from their customers. Its perhaps a more subtle theft, but yet still a theft. It certainly undercuts the long litany of reassurances made by the parties involved, ie, the ponzi shemers ZH refers to, that all is right and above board with the CME, JPMorg and HSBC (among many others, once including MFGlobal).


    My admittedly simple view of property rights would tend to indicate that the man with the receipt of deposit owns the gold and silver, NOT the now bankrupt and thoroughly discredited MFGlobal. Its sad that this customer and many others are paying the price for the actions of this criminal enterprise, but that is why they call it "theft". For such a theft to occur, there has to be a victim.


    IF, as I also infer from this case, there are other customers who were effectively "sold" the same bars, or part of them, then it will be up to the courts to divide the baby.


    One thing which should NOT occur regardless of any other outcome is that HSBC should be able to retain possession of the goods. If the idea at some point is that these "repositories" now have a claim to the precious metals in their vaults other than their rentals and handling fees, there is truly reason to worry above and beyond the sad issues created by such a huge crime.
    9 Dec 2011, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Its a big black swan. I posted two articles yesterday from ZH that I noted as being of interest and one of them was on the rehypothicating where 1 asset could be covering 4 "obligations" on that asset. It is very much a black swan event if this begins to fall apart.


    Yesterday was the very first day that I had ever heard of the term and it was an ugly education that simply added to my fears that we have passed the tipping point.


    This reminds me of the inspirational poster below.

    9 Dec 2011, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Forgot to mention that the reason that many financial institutions
    move to london is to get around the Rehypothication laws in the USA.


    I reposted the article below. I think you should REALLY TAKE A LOOK!!. Apocalyptic consequences are discussed.

    9 Dec 2011, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • I reposted all three articles on the Breakfast club. DG's and OG's. Now there is less doubt than ever that the whole house of cards will collapse. Now the question becomes which banks and firms will get swept away in the undertow.
    9 Dec 2011, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • DG: Sheesh! How do I stop my hair from bleeding? I know I need to reread that article five times over, just to be able to begin to understand the complexities...and potential ramifications.


    Damn. Only the "shadow knows."
    9 Dec 2011, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Muhahahaha...
    9 Dec 2011, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • Guns, and OG, that article on Rehypothication is the single most important article I have read in a long time.


    "Re-hypothecation may have increased the financial footprint of Eurozone bonds by at least four fold."


    We are floating on a sea of crap.
    11 Dec 2011, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • FPA


    Then should one consider buying Physical gold and silver since this info became a conversation here??


    11 Dec 2011, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • ...or it may be simpler to decide which ones won't get swept away.
    12 Dec 2011, 05:49 AM Reply Like
  • One should go long lawyers on this news. I see lawsuits as far as the eye can see.


    Certainly adds meaning to possession is 9/10ths of the law. For those in possession the other 1/10th is obtained by owning lead.
    12 Dec 2011, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • And the hits just keep on coming folks!


    "US household wealth takes biggest hit since 2008"


    "... as stocks, pension funds and home values lost value.


    At the same time, corporations raised their cash stockpiles to record levels.


    Household net worth fell 4 percent to $57.4 trillion in the July-September quarter, according to a Federal Reserve report released Thursday. It was the sharpest drop since the tumultuous period after the September 2008 bankruptcy of investment bank Lehman Brothers. And it was the second straight quarterly fall. "



    9 Dec 2011, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • opened a small position in SPXU late in the day. I know most won't carry a position over the weekend, But i see nothing GOOD happening over this time frame, Put a trailing stop on it and this strategy has worked before for me.


    Lets see if i am right next week!!!


    9 Dec 2011, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • MAP: Careful. Though it's possible the markets will retrace on or before Monday opening, it looks like the markets are now heading toward that Christmas rally.
    9 Dec 2011, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Good luck with. I had an urge, but I resisted.


    Since my batting average on this to-date is below "par", I'm trying to be "not too early" again and trying to discipline myself to be more strongly certain of a trend, rather than "Man, I just know this or that is going to happen".


    My forte has never been knowing peoples' actions or thoughts (why I got out of business for myself when I realized I *hated* "managing" people - too much cat-herding IMO).


    I'll be pulling for you!


    9 Dec 2011, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • MAP: I've come to believe that the e-mini futures move the markets more thna anything (used for manipulating the markets?). And I've also decided, knowing that, that the *maximum* profit is to enter a position just before market close as you did, so that part is definitely good on your part.


    But it also scares me because most of the e-mini futures movements occurs overnight and pre-market. So, that increases the risk.


    Once the market opens, you can observe the futures move "lock step" with SPY, and with a small lag, with SPX.


    There's generally an offset of +$5 or +$6, in that range, when the front-month contract is "young" (not going to expire for ... a month or more?). As the expiration of that front-month contract nears, the offset appears to shrink down to $4, then $3, $2, $1 ranges. But it'll take another few months to see if this holds.


    The March contract is near becoming front-month as December last trade is 12/16. Most trading is rolling to the March contract now. That contract is currently showing $1252.88, implying an SPX around $1258ish. But is only an hour after close and I've discovered that these very "early" trades bear little correlation to what it may look like as next market open nears.


    If you want to peak at them:






    If you knew this already, apologies from me for being presumptuous.


    9 Dec 2011, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Good luck with that MAP. I agree with you that there doesn't look like anything good coming out over the week end but in this casino, manipulated market there is just no telling. Those happy go lucky EZ FINMINS and central banks could pull an imaginary rabbit out of Banana, Ben's hat and it's off to the races Monday morning.
    9 Dec 2011, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • HTL


    No, I had no idea what you posted. So i will take a look at it. I know it is late but Had a long day. Good weekend to you all.


    9 Dec 2011, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • MAYA


    Sold my short position as soon as i hit my target. Not so sure if that Holiday rally will happen this year...Buying physical looks promising soon as well. This whole hypo thing might scare plenty away from GLD and SLV..


    12 Dec 2011, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Good Friday call, and good job, MAP.


    I would not be touching any PM in the short term. Seems the dollar is on a bit of a rally.
    12 Dec 2011, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • So keep hands off all Precious Metals? Is there such thing is touching PM in the long term? Should that be considered?
    12 Dec 2011, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Spawn: Greetings. I think you may have misunderstood. The discussion is revolving around Physical metal as opposed to Exchange traded funds backed by PM or what we call paper PM. I don't like the paper because the math doesn't add up. Now we have found that the metal they hold (If any.) may be leveraged as collateral four or more times the intrinsic value of the metal it's self. If all of the ETF holders demand payment things will get ugly quickly. I believe Maya is advocating a wait and see stance on metals as the dollar is showing strength at the moment and normally has an inverse relationship with PM.
    12 Dec 2011, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Robert and Spawn: That's what I meant. I wouldn't be initiating a new position, or adding to physical right now. The dollar seems to be gaining strength, but is still relatively rangebound against the euro for the past month or so, or more.


    Folks here for a long time know I do not trust any PM ETF, and will never buy or hold any PM related ETF. Ever. PMs in the form of stocks or the metal itself (mostly in coin form) are about 7 to 8% of my overall portfolio. I'm currently content with that ratio.


    Besides, we're heading into the traditional down season for gold anyway.
    12 Dec 2011, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • I am doing just the opposite, Maya. I own SLV 2014 call options. So I own options for paper silver. You can't get further away from physical than that. And, yeah, I know there are risks and I don't really own much. But there is no easier way to leverage an inexpensive bet about the direction of silver in the next 2 years.
    12 Dec 2011, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • That is very smart, DM. Another way to diminish your exposure further, is, when the call options start moving higher, sell a call option at a higher strike price (hopefully a much higher strike price!) and get your investment out totally, if you can be content with the profit being the spread between the 2 options.
    12 Dec 2011, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • An important thing effecting the price of both paper an real gold is the current lease rates. Right now the rate is at all time record levels and that is extremely bearish for gold.


    I am not comfortable on these computers as I am an OLD timer an I needed my neighbors daughter to get me a picture on SA,but, those who can zip around can here a wonderful interview with Mr Mcclellen on yesterdays Bloomberg t/v show. I know how to copy an paste some things ,but, didn't know how to get that one,but, I am sure the computer wiz people here can get it.


    He is the son of thee Mcclellen of oscillator fame ,but, his firm is tops in forcasting an he brilliantly explains how the lease rates determine golds price. For gold holders it's a must. pok
    13 Dec 2011, 02:14 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the suggestion, OG. I haven't done much with spreads, but this could be a good one to play with -- due to the cost of the option being relatively low. I have mostly been dealing with AAPL options and the cost of covering a single call is enormous. It sounds like something I will try out if the option starts to move in the right direction.
    13 Dec 2011, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • I'm outta here for the week end. Have a great week end all.
    9 Dec 2011, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • Have a gud 'un Robert! Stay out of the (dry) heat!


    9 Dec 2011, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Canadian Patent Issued to Medizone International for AsepticSure™ Disinfection Technology



    All, this is one of those medtech penny stocks that crop up all the time. EXCEPT, the technology is straight forward and useful in the extreme. It's the potential size of the market that attracted me initially.


    It allows an entire room to be sterilized with a vapor phase system that leaves it ready to occupy after about an hour of treatment with NO leftover toxins . Kills everything from viruses to bed bugs! Honest! Think of the hotel and cruise ship market alone. If it kills roaches it's worth billions ;-)


    The technology has apparently been peer reviewed and patented in Canada with an application submitted in the USA.
    Medtech apparently makes the small, roll around machine that does the job. I havn't looked into the company or equipment deeply, but I plan to do so.


    I don't own any of the stock and have no plans to buy any.


    10 Dec 2011, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Additional info on Medizone

    10 Dec 2011, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • I know it is late on Saturday night but just heard this sommentary about Europe and some ingenius way they were able to kick the can down the road. I appreciate some opinions and will it work.


    I will admit this is over my head



    10 Dec 2011, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • >MAP: that link seems to have taken me to a conglomeration page where many potential videos are presented. Can you pull up the one you meant and post that link?


    11 Dec 2011, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • HTL


    does it bring up Ben Davies audio portion?? i THINK YOU CLICK ON THE LEFT SIDE TO LISTEN TO IT!!!!
    11 Dec 2011, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • HTL


    I just clicked on the link i sent and it has a video portion on the left side. If you have time listen as he states Europe did something UNIQUE...Hopefully this helps. it is in the purple color box!!!


    11 Dec 2011, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • htl


    make that an audio potion, sorry


    11 Dec 2011, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Worked! Sorry I couldn't ID which one at first. Just add a clue, like the name etc., and it'll help me out.


    Alternately, right-click and "Copy link location" and paste that rather than the url of the main page.


    Listening now. Thanks for following up.


    11 Dec 2011, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Here's my first post, and our prayer for all of the Renegade's followers and the broader SA community: As 2011 comes to a close we say goodbye with both tears and joy. Babies are born, children make accomplishments that make us proud. Babies welcomed with joy. Hearts filled with life and excitement. Family and friends reach goals and succeed. And sadly those who lost the means of their livelihood. There was the sadness of lost of family and friends, goodbyes said in tears, and hearts that are heavy. With a deep sigh we watch our government make fools of themselves, express their delusions, and once again all know exactly what we need and yet haven't really got a clue. We watch prices inflate and we adjust, we see the economy struggle at home and across the world. We look within ourselves to find our solution to daily life. And hope that by some miracle our leaders can do the same. So my friends and family, I pray that 2012 brings many wonderful things to all. That your happiness and joy will be more powerful than any other disappointments and sadness. I pray for good health, and those struggling with health issues to find comfort and healing. I pray you have peace, the warm calm that soothes the soul and lifts the spirit. The peace that wraps you in comfort when there are sorrows that pull out your heart. I pray the Lord has his angels guide you and aid you in all aspects of your life. No matter how you choose to worship God, your beliefs, or even non-belief, I pray for God's tender mercy and love to embrace you and your family and your friends and their families and their friends in the following year. To my family, and their families, to friends and their families, I pray all have a safe and wonderful Christmas, and a happy 2012 that is filled with many wonderful things. May your Christmas and New Year be sweet and full of love.


    From the Ferguson's.
    Brought to us by Carol Koepke
    11 Dec 2011, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • Are you Rob's kid? At any rate, it's always nice to hear from new people. Wishing you a lovely holiday too.
    12 Dec 2011, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • Spawn,


    That's quite nice. Thank you for sharing and for your kind thoughts. I wish the same for you and yours.
    13 Dec 2011, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  • TB


    i TOO also feel bad for your loss of artwork. That had to feel like a knife went right through you. Hope you get some relief eventually from the insurance co. OG was right in trying to hire a private adjustor who works on commission.


    I did once and was amazed what you forget to list as a loss that they catch, I thought i has a loss of about 2k once and by time this guy was done it was close to 10k...I can;t remember his rate but it was nice sitting back and having a LAWYER so to speak on your behalf speaking for you to their adjustor.


    Also don't feel bad about that dryer. That is the norm for women. They do come in a set!!!


    11 Dec 2011, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Any ideas who I write that the Author Board section where one writes articles is not working right now?


    So frustrating... almost done with two articles...
    11 Dec 2011, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • I don't know about PM, but e-mail is


    I'm going to the home page now to see if there's a PM address.


    I'll post a reply if I find something.


    11 Dec 2011, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • There's a PM facility and a phone number listed here.



    11 Dec 2011, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks HTL. That helped, as I then discovered I couldn't compose an e-mail in Hotmail or Gmail. The problem, it seems, was a very tired and hot computer. That's what I get for assuming its someone's else problem and not me.
    11 Dec 2011, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Jon,


    If it's been around for a while, dust may have collected on various surfaces. Critically, on the fan blades of cooling fans, on the surfaces of heat sinks and chips. All this causes reduced heat dissipation.


    Crack that sucker open and blow everything off really well. "Dust off" compressed air cans, such as available at Office Depot, Walmart, ... work well. But so does the exhaust from a vacuum if you have a crevice tool or make a custom attachment as I've done (a simple plug that I drilled a hole into and inserted and glued flexible plastic tubing this allowed me to maneuver into very tight places and do a better job).


    CAVEAT: watch out for knocking any wires or cables loose.


    While you're in there, re-seat any plug in cards by "gently" but "firmly" pushing them into there slots. Thermal expansion and contraction sometimes cause "creep" and marginal contact may be occurring.


    Also re-seat and wired connectors for power plugs, data cables, etc.


    I do this at least once every 6 months on all my units.


    My youngest son thought his had died sometime back. He followed this advice and all has been well.


    If you already knew this, apologies.


    12 Dec 2011, 06:38 AM Reply Like
  • Great advice.
    12 Dec 2011, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • HTL


    Any opinion on the audio??


    11 Dec 2011, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • MAP, I was just getting ready to listen again, as I got side-tracked while it was playing. So I didn't get to really absorb much first time around.


    Things have settled a bit - I should be able to get it this time.


    11 Dec 2011, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • MAP: It's interesting that he mentions England telling the banks to prepare for what's happening in the EZ without selling assets (IOW, raise capital to strengthen balance sheets). I believe this is essentially what Germany told their banks last week (but I can't recall if they said hang on to your asse(t)s :-))


    As to what is being planned, it's so similar to what we did here, we ought to call it QEZ1. There's no mark-to-market required on the bad assets, the ECB will be buying them off the bank balance sheets (for up two years), solving the the insolvency risk for now.


    The piece I don't understand is that he says the roll over sovereign debt problem is solved because the banks will have to go out and buy sovereign debt to recapitalize. Why they would buy sovereign debt rather than take another course escapes me, but I'm relatively new to this stuff. Our banks recapitalized by issuing equity, IIRC. If they do buy sovereign the rates should drop on sovereign debt and that would be a plus. But what if the banks recapitalize some other way, say they buy U.S. treasuries?


    Then assume the fiscal union comes to be. Austerity really does get imposed. If it holds together, they face the same problem we may be facing - declining tax revenues from lowered GNP (after all, just like ours, banks will be hoarding cash, governments will be stimulating less) and ISTM that not far down the road we end up at the same place: sovereign debt loses value (since economic growth did not allow them to increase revenues sufficiently to lower overall debt) and the cost of rolling the debt soars again.


    Many smarter than I have said "the math just doesn't work".


    The new wrinkle that he discusses is yield targeting. That could work. But ISTM the trade-off is inflation risk because it trades slightly less-liquid assets (sovereign bonds) for more-liquid assets, cash into the system. How will they control that? Will banks just sit on the cash like they are doing in the U.S.? If so, no problem (at least not the *same* problem). If they can't control the potential inflation, then I doubt they can control anything as money will seek returns - either forcing higher yields beyond the ECB capability to cap them or by going elsewhere, reducing capital formation need to increase GNP to increase tax revenues needed to get out of debt.


    I especially noted his discussion of the financial oppression he expects to transition from "encouragement" to "mandatory" bond purchases by the citizens and/or retirement fund managers.


    And he also echoes what we've heard elsewhere - several periphery countries will take a hard default as the math just doesn't work.


    So even after all the talk of the "cleverness" of what's going on with the ECB, he apparently thinks we end up with the same result (my take).


    Do keep in mind that I am *not* well-versed in this stuff and have only been grasping the enormity and intricacy of it all in bits and pieces.


    I wish that he had touched on the "hypothecation" issue - I think that's having a big effect even though the first "formal" default has yet to occur. The players *must* be aware of its risk ramifications and that is probably affecting their actions as well.


    BTW, it all sounds so much the same: save the privileged few at the expense of the masses. Just like we did here.


    11 Dec 2011, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • MAP: Seems to be a possibility my question in the prior comment, "Why would they buy sovereign debt" might be germane.


    From a Marketwatch article this A.M., "Fed busy behind scenes on third year of zero rates", is this interesting relation of "anecdotal evidence".


    "She noted that Fed buying MBS would be timely given growing anecdotal reports that said European banks are selling dollar-denominated assets such as mortgage securities".



    My take is that this would be sufficient to be considered "re-capitalized" since US$ is considered "safe" and "stable". If they use those dollars to by sovereign debt, that seems less "safe" and "stable" ATM.


    So I think they sit on the US dollars.


    12 Dec 2011, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • Here's an "oy,gee" moment to start off the week:
    11 Dec 2011, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • I don't like to interrupt such good topics, but I've been reading quickchats for a while and have to say: thank you. You are helping the common man to be successful and produce profits.


    All the users here, my reverence and my respect. You are true good people. Thanks!
    11 Dec 2011, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • Gold and Silver are getting wacked real early . I guess the boys are already at work...amazing..


    11 Dec 2011, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • MAP, central banks are selling gold to raise cash. Wonder how much of it is re-hypothicated gold. LOL This is simply a buying opportunity. Have bought some more physical for delivery in January after my trip. Don't want it delivered to the bank so I will have them sit on it till I get back and I can personally deliver it there.


    See ZH article below. second article talks about gold too and indias plunging industrial production numbers.


    12 Dec 2011, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • Buying gold (UGL) on this dip.
    12 Dec 2011, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • DG


    I think this dip has EVERYTHING to do with HYPO,,,Even silver is getting hit .Be careful with SLV as well. Who knows who used those bars as well.


    Agree a great buying opportunity.


    12 Dec 2011, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • It was to be expected. Gold has been the real winner this year in the clash between equities and gold.


    I shorted GLD when gold touched just around 1,800 an ounce, I would probably cover soon.


    Meanwhile I keep buying some small quantities of physical assets like farm land, foreclosure property, and of course precious metals.
    11 Dec 2011, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • Ever get the feeling you're wasting your time when researching a company?


    I'm reading a company announcement from February 2011 that says:
    "Work continues at a satisfactory pace at the T______ site and advances have been made in the continues test work of the ore in preparation for production startup mid-year in 2011" The lengthy announcement continues later: "As the deposits on the T______ site have not been categorized as [any type of resource or reserve] under National Instrument 43-101, the disclosure in this press release regarding the potential quantity and grade of deposits is conceptual in nature."


    They're not producing yet. I think they're still working on how to mine conceptual deposits.


    They also hired a company to construct the facilities at their mine in 2010 that only exists in Google in the company's announcements.


    They also have some insane legal drama with the former CEO and some other guys, lawsuits, embezzlement, stamps stolen, long and hard to follow.


    However, need to figure out clearly if they're for real or a fraud more clearly as there's at least one guy involved who is on the board of another company in the same business in the same country.
    12 Dec 2011, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  • Almost sounds like a Nigerian email.
    12 Dec 2011, 01:46 AM Reply Like
  • I made the executive decision to remove both companies from my list of companies doing business in Mongolia until I find better data on them. I spent an hour on it and that's enough. I can ask people about it in February when I'm over there.
    12 Dec 2011, 02:06 AM Reply Like
  • People has anyone noticed that since Mr Draghi has taken over the Euro has dropped steadily ? Today MS said that after 5 major EU events the only thing that we need is luck ! Only luck can help now. How authoritative.


    A little thought.

    12 Dec 2011, 05:08 AM Reply Like
  • Isn't it nice to know our economic future is being placed on a roulette table by the politicians. Luck.....ok lets put EZ survival on red...and US jobs on black. One of them has to win. Of course as I said before, what about that zero and double zero green.


    Lucky, lucky, lucky till its not. Frankly I dont think we have had a winning hand yet so we must be hitting those zeros very consistantly.
    12 Dec 2011, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • USisCorrupt posted this an it is long ,but, worth a watch ! If involves MF Global an current life.

    12 Dec 2011, 06:52 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the link. Ouch and then some.
    14 Dec 2011, 02:12 AM Reply Like
  • ZH article saying we should remain scared shitless.


    If 10 year goes well below the 2.0 range ( I am looking for 1.6X as bottom potential) it would be time to short treasuries I believe.

    12 Dec 2011, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Bruce Krasting has some comments on re-hypothication and Reg T that if changed could lead to a black swan event. I never heard of Reg T until today. Learning how little I know these past few weeks.

    12 Dec 2011, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • DG, thanks for that link. That article contains an embedded link that I also think is a must read:


    The big "so whats" of re-hypothecation rules in my humble opinion are:


    1) They facilitate as the FT authors suggest "the hunt for collateral" to pledge and re-pledge -- thus becoming "something akin to a gold mining operation." And I doubt the average retail investor has looked carefully at their broker's customer agreements to see if the right to "hypothecation and re-hypothecation" are neatly inserted among all the legalese. Most margin agreements contain the provision. Think about the ramifications when more folks understand the risk.


    2) The potential global size of this "gold mining operation" is mind boggling. As FT reminds us:
    "For example Lehman, at the eve of its bankruptcy (end- 2007), had $800 billion in pledged collateral that could be repledged in Lehman’s name, while its balance sheet size was only about $700 billion."


    3) While I believe strongly in precious metals diversification (along with my 6 currency diversification strategies) -- IMHO the potential hidden collateral risks of the gold and silver ETFs may become better understood by the masses which have invested in them -- while helping to prop up PM prices. So short term IMO there is the real possibility of selloffs in these ETFs as the house of cards is better understood -- and then to be followed by more margin calls -- and potentially lower entry prices for physical gold and gold miner shares.


    I offer these thoughts to fertilize your own thinking and perhaps help you draw your own conclusions.


    Disclosure: I do not hold any positions (long or short) in any of the precious metals ETFs.
    12 Dec 2011, 11:31 AM Reply Like


    To me it is very simple pertaining to PM. BUY PHYSICAL and use gld and slv for a daily trade. I don't trust anyone with my money in their accounts right now.


    I learned a long time ago if one is doing it then more will follow ( down the drain ) them.


    This HYPO has my head spinning how it could EVER be legal, I own it, no i don't ??


    12 Dec 2011, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • MJ: Seasons greetings. Thanks I missed that one. It's no surprise then that the FED has no clue where the money they shoveled into the EZ went. It gets curioser and curioser as we go farther into the rabbit hole.
    12 Dec 2011, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy,


    Your #3 was the first thing that crossed my mind when I read the "re-hypothication" article and wondered "what happens when this is widely understood".


    But then my mind also wandered over to encompass larger players (many of whom are *really* large shorts) and wondered if we'd see even bigger increases in "short raids" coming in the wee hours to try even harder to shake out the lesser players.


    If so, it seems possible to see an even larger drop than might be expected, larger and more frequent margin increases than expected and, ultimately a huge short-covering action at very low prices as HSBC, JPM, Bank of Nova Scotia et al exit before the regulators have time to react by changing Reg T and other rules.


    I don't believe a squeeze would be possible though - until regs change, they have free run of the market and they are very smart at working the system, delaying with lobbying efforts, etc.


    And they *are* PDs and have major contacts everywhere, including the Fed and other CBs.


    12 Dec 2011, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • When do you make money with the physical?
    12 Dec 2011, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • FPA: not necessary to *make* money, just being able to it back may suffice. Of course, long-term, with debasement, you may do both if you have physical under your control (i.e. not where it can be leased, re-hypothicated, etc.).


    12 Dec 2011, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • It’s a cash flow issue for me. Physical gold is a great insurance policy for an end game. But what about near term gains? What about income?
    12 Dec 2011, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • FPA


    If we are not at the end game Ebay is a wonderful place to sell. Plus your local coin dealer, if large enough, will buy it as well..


    12 Dec 2011, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • Its the potential liquidity trap I am wondering about. If you don't have a lot of cash-flow, the more you put into the physical, the less you have to generate cash-flow.


    If you are buying it for the insurance value, you would not sell it. If you don't have cash flow, it just sits there and you end up dead in the water with respect to income. So yes, you can sell it before an end game, but if it's just sitting there its not generating cash that you can use today.
    12 Dec 2011, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • FPA, don't under estimate what great collateral real PMs make. Banks will hold them free an lend aginst them ! A win win for you and rates are cheap for solid collateral like PMs. There are juicy foreign Gov bonds with high rates. A giant spread can be had !
    12 Dec 2011, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • That's an interesting idea. Thanks Pokalolo.
    12 Dec 2011, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • POK.


    Thanks for the idea, i already put thought to that,,,,however,,,,,


    BANKS are not stupid. Do you think they would take it as collateral if they thought the price would drop?? Just another reason to hold onto it..Rather use cash that i feel will be worth less ( get it ) one day....


    12 Dec 2011, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • MAP, they loaned on millions of houses an they dropped ! I know there happier with a bar of gold then needing to cut the grass an evict a dead beat !
    12 Dec 2011, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • FPA


    I would just include PM as part of your portfolio. Just maybe lean towards a heavier portion of it..You can sell it if you like, it is just harder than clicking on a mouse. Like i said Ebay always has buyers..


    IMO you should stick to certain silver pieces as i learned the hard way when you try to sell it to a coin dealer...I have created cash flow, Remember it was trading at 15 bucks an ounce not too long ago and it did hit 50 bucks for a few minutes until the banks opened. IF i am correct it hit 50 on Good Friday !!!!


    12 Dec 2011, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • I will bet the banks will hold these !

    12 Dec 2011, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • POK


    They might have dropped but lets see what gold is worth in a year. I also agree they would rather have gold then a dead beat. This just sounds like the store in the midwest that took silver as payment instead of cash.


    Smart move, he gets his margin on the product then gets the silver. This is when silver was 15 bucks an ounce. Now who came out the winner on that exchange a little over a year ago??


    IMO i would rather hold onto my gold and silver until the manipulation is done...


    12 Dec 2011, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • POK


    I will never have luck like that but i can tell you that NO box will ever be unopened if i was in that position. It had to be buried real deep under something. Honestly i did not read the whole article...


    12 Dec 2011, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy, if the metals ETF's begin to sell off because of hypo threats it may mean shares of those eft's hit the market but will the metal? Itself if it is hypoed 3 more times down the road it cant go anywhere. The liquidity crisis if the metal is allowed to be sold creates a call on all the hypoed obligations on that metal. I am still scratching my head on all of this and "DO NOT FULLY UNDERSTAND" all the implications.


    Your point could be more right than the point I just made. Frankly I have "NO CLUE" since until just last week I never even heard of hypo but I think this gets alot deeper than us mere mortals can see.


    The waters are deep and muddy and apparently full of all sorts of vermin that will eat you.


    If this places a hugh demand on physical.... shortages of metals could develope. (another thought bouncing around in my head) there could be a serious divergence between paper and physical prices soon as faith in paper falls flat but demand for physical surges. Watch for backwardation.


    Eric Sprott is trying to get silver miners (gold too I would assume) to hold metel instead of converting it to fiat as he feels why trade good money for bad. This could add to the physical shortage and what miner wants to send he metals to get locked up in the next MFG fiasco.


    This can of worms is only 2 worms into the can. We have a long way to go in my opinion to grasp the reality of this entire situation.


    So now I am completely dizzy and still no clear answer comes to mind. Yes there is much to think about but I have such a small pea to perform the thinking with, thats what makes this forum so helpful. May peas working on all aspects of the problems/concerns.


    Around here the peas are trying NOT to be eaten!!! We must stay very far from BO who would demand.... "someone eat the peas".


    I rest for the time being in that there is not enought information, knowledge, luck, or connections and the vapors are so thick for us to know what this outcome is going to be for the short term so I continue to invest in physical PM for long term and insurance purposes. Paper for trade AGQ and DGP which has no gold to be hypoed but......I really do not have a clue if their assets have the potential for hypo or have been hypoed and I am possibly getting or soon will be getting screwed while I type this out. This could really, really, really (triple really is big) turn into a large black swan event . See the flock below.

    12 Dec 2011, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Never. Its just like life insurance. OK.... your heirs do when your dead.


    One other option...when the fan and shit finally meet in the middle, but use it wisely in that scenario.


    Oh yea one more possibility. When gold and DOW approach parity.
    12 Dec 2011, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • FPA I use my (gains...spoken in very small voice) on investments in AGQ and DGP to generate cash to invest in physical. That solves the liquidity trap.
    12 Dec 2011, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Yes, yes, yes. One can buy many greek and Italian bonds with hugh yields right now if you have gold to pledge.


    Augggggghhhhhhhhhh...... no thank you!!!!!
    12 Dec 2011, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • DG


    Have you seen Michael Maloneys presentation. It is 90 minutes long but very informative



    YOU do not have to be a gold bug, just intersted in gold and sliver and where it fits in todays society..


    Personally i think it is a must see for all, imho


    12 Dec 2011, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Your probably right. I'll bet the books are more veluable than the coins though.
    12 Dec 2011, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • That's exactly what I was looking for Guns! Use profits from a leveraged play and buy the physical, but keep the principal for more trading. Thanks.
    12 Dec 2011, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • DG,
    IMO this is such an opaque market on so many levels – that the more I learn the more I realize I do not know!


    It appears to me that games played by the ETFs are but a small corner of the playing field. Therefore, when precious metals (PM) ETFs refuse to have annual inventory audits detailing serial #s on their bars or play other vault holding games (see articles on SA by Avery Goodman) – their actions can influence PM price levels but one also needs to account for price impact by others in the game at the same time who are selling, leasing, or pledging gold in collateral swaps.


    A good posting yesterday tackles some of the potential explanation for last week’s decline in gold through these additional actions:
    The author also opines on why he believes “there are few gold producers that would entertain borrowing gold today, no matter how cheap it could be.” He also speculates about how EU banks may be using gold in 1-year collateral swaps to gain even greater access to liquidity.


    I am trying to learn more about these collateral swaps in particular – because they are not registered anywhere – no one knows the size of the market or the number of participants -- and they appear to play an important role in the chain of pledging and re-pledging carried out in the name of re-hypothecation. An excellent article was posted last summer on these collateral swaps if you want to know more:


    Basically lower risk participants such as pension funds and insurance companies will lend their high quality assets for leasing by higher risk players who need to pledge collateral for funding over a set period of time. What I found most interesting is how this swap lending for yield is now being done for shorter durations (including overnight) as market risk has been increasing. This shorter term swap when conducted with the shadow banking re-hypothecation could create new levels of market risk we have not seen before.


    Finally, the article suggests we ponder the notion that perhaps the FED has a vested interest in the health of these collateral swaps and re-hypothecation processes because it increases “money flowing into riskier assets.” Now that is really something to think about!
    12 Dec 2011, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • FPA


    MAYBE i am missing something. Can't you do the same with any leverage play. I sold SPXU today and bought my physical with the profits..


    But i am in the camp that these markets have a lot of downside AFTER the holiday rally ( if we even have one) this year?


    12 Dec 2011, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • MJ: That whole concept seems a little crazy to me. Especially in the rigged market we are currently dealing with. Uncle Sugar changing rules and margins every couple of weeks would seem to be enough of a deterrent to any sane investor trying this IMHO. That along with the lack of transparency or accountability you have so ably shown us. Thanks.
    12 Dec 2011, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • MAP,


    Banks will hold stock certs as collateral. I have not done it, but I'm pretty sure they will hold a bar or bag of gold coins as well. As Pok states below, it damn sure is easier to maintain than I house you didn't want to own in the first place (just throw it in the vault) and they are able to track the real value of gold on a daily basis if they want vs. a home, who knows whats going on in that house 300 miles away, or nearly as bad, on the property next door or across the street. They loan on cars which really are probably one of the worst pieces of collateral I can think of. Gold also has liquidity, almost always, should some moron at the bank decide they no longer want to hold it after it was repossessed. If your gold drops below what they need as collateral on a loan, they'll simply call you and tell you that you need more collateral. A bit like a margin call I suppose.


    On that note, do you folks buy bars or coins? If you buy coins, does it matter what you buy, from a OM investors perspective as opposed to the coin collector I mean?
    12 Dec 2011, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Agreed Robert. The whole debacle is quite intriguing and becomes more and more so all the time. On the other hand, "Curiosity killed the cat". I'm nearly at the point where I really don't want to know any more. To much stress. I'm trying to liquidate most everything before year end and then I intend to just watch and see how things unfold for a while.
    12 Dec 2011, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • Map with a 2x gold or silver play such as agq or dgp if they are up they are up more than silver and gold so when I convert I am way ahead of the actual price of silver or gold. I would hate to be swapping a 2x play for a 1.25 gain on silver. I want the whole 2x move to count when I buy my metals.


    A 2x move in dow does not mean you moved ahead of the metals by 2x. Hope that makes sense. However where ever your cash comes from does not matter if your making money your ahead of most.
    12 Dec 2011, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • Egg


    Yes, Especially in silver. As i stated i learned the hard way. American Silver or Gold Eagles are by far the best. They are made in the USA so the weight is guaranteed. If you buy from a generic company you need to have a test kit. OG speaks about that all the time.


    A local coin dealer will give you less for generic than for ASE'S. so be careful what you buy. Now my point on collateral is that i would not let my physical metals out of my sight!!! Just look what is going on with MF GLOBAL. Do you want YOUR collateral being used as someones eles's collateral???


    Well apparently That is what is going on. THAT NEW WORD we all learned this week and how it is legal in London. The least group i would ever trust is a bank !!! I think you should have all the proof you need with this one hiccup that will mushroom into other things we have no clue about, YET !!


    I would rather use cash as i know what way that value is going. Fortunately for me i do not have a mortgage, so i am just a shark looking for more RE when the time is right. If you need more info on coins, bars, companies, etc please feel free to PM ME..


    13 Dec 2011, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • DG


    Got it, Thanks


    13 Dec 2011, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • EGG


    I am already ahead of you because i do not want to be trying to explain something this bad to my wife one day. Better be safe than sorry. Not like i was making a killing in these markets anyway.


    Like a rowboat, up,down, up, down, back where i started minus all the fees...


    13 Dec 2011, 12:07 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks to DG for these most appropriate links. They get right to the heart of the matter IMO. The 1st regarding curiosity...


    And the 2nd regarding the whole muddy mess...
    13 Dec 2011, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • DG


    So what about days when you play SPXU AND the markets go down while silver either rises or drops. You sell, you profit and hold until a nice buying opportunity. Since i feel the markets are headed for the Xhitter i wait for a nice rally, have all the talking heads smiling. I wait until the last hr of trading and decide if the markets are ripe for a reversal.


    Then i BUY SPXU and sell the next day and i might buy my silver or gold then. Do you see a flaw??


    13 Dec 2011, 12:17 AM Reply Like
  • egg


    Maybe this will help also..



    13 Dec 2011, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • MAP,
    I guess that's a good point regarding banks. I am back living in the quiet little country town (population 9200 or something) where I grew up, complete with small conservative neighborhood banks.


    I had been thinking about this discussion only with regard to big brokerages, banks etc. Your point is well taken though. As I think about it, this sleepy little town that has survived for generations on dairy farming and city folk wanting to escape, becomes less little and sleepy all of the time (we are in the middle of the Marcellus Shale gas rush) and the friendly, conservative little neighborhood banks still employ all of the faces that have been there for years, but are increasingly no longer locally owned by your buddies in the Wednesday night golf league.


    The other side of that, though, is that if it is in your possession, it's not collateral, which is the question you were posing to Pok, "Would banks accept gold as collateral".


    I'll drop you a line.
    13 Dec 2011, 01:40 AM Reply Like
  • I agree MAP, to some extent anyway. My long term holdings have certainly not been setting the world on fire, but I have been taking advantage of the volatility to add to them when the price is right. So in that respect, you are *gaining*.


    On the other hand, the volatility in these markets has been quite favorable for making money on trades and I've done fairly well in that. The problem I foresee, and have no desire to be in the middle of, is that your trades are making money until they're not. Meaning that you wake up one morning and there is some headline about Armageddon in the financial markets in Europe or Asia, and your money is already largely gone. I really didn't foresee that problem being a very likely, imminent scenario until this past week with this "hypoalecutenia*!$%@". I believe the enormity of that problem could very well be disastrous. Like my trades, it works fine until it doesn't. But it will only take one day, when the poop meets the fan at one of these institutions, IMO. It will snowball at a rate that is incomprehensible. When that happens, you can be sure that the world will be much busier saving their own behinds than getting word of the collapse out to you. It will be all but over before you even hear about it. Were it not for that concern, I would be quite content to capitalize on the volatility and keep doing what I do, for a few more months at the very least.
    13 Dec 2011, 02:12 AM Reply Like
  • Egg: Season's greetings. Thanks for the links. The second one is a real concern.
    13 Dec 2011, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • EGG


    I might have mis spoke if you thought i was asking if the bank would use gold as collateral.I would NEVER use my physical for collateral. In fact i really don't even like leaving my money in a bank!!! I have been considering a credit union instead. Sorry if i was misunderstood.


    I too moved back to my small town where i was brought up. I even spoke to the bank manager ( who we use to know on a first name basis ) and asked if his company used hyper.....whatever....He had no clue what i was talking about.( NEITHER DO I ..) I also have watched my town grow from a one light, 6 bar, dirt road in the 60's to a not so small town anymore as we are only an hr bus ride from NYC.


    So all of us use to commute daily by bus or train, then express buses, then express trains added to the growth. So as expansion goes were the same. Yet some coin dealers still think they are dealing with FARMERS still when you go to buy or sell your coins. I have found a much more productive way and learned a ton by making mistakes.


    If i can help please drop a line.


    13 Dec 2011, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • I do something very similar, but I use the VIX and XIV. Nitro shared that one with us several months ago and I have become quite fond of it. I did exceedingly well with it in September and October. More recently, I haven't been playing it because the swings generally haven't been as large and I find the BIG swings of say 15% or more have been more difficult to anticipate as they tend to come and go sometimes on very little news. Then other times there is all kinds of positive news flowing but the market just doesn't seem to react like I would expect. At any rate, they all work I suppose, when used properly. It's just a matter of what you're comfortable with. As DG says, "It really doesn't matter where your money comes from..".
    16 Dec 2011, 02:05 AM Reply Like
  • Buying a leveraged oil (DIG) on the dip.
    12 Dec 2011, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • I view today as an excellent day to cover short plays, for those playing such.


    I added ARAFF, IAALF, TAMO and UURAF today.
    12 Dec 2011, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • Data on sales of existing homes from 2007 onward will be downwardly revised, the National Association of Realtors said Monday.
    Now why would they do that? and why now?
    12 Dec 2011, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • FPA: Greetings. Very good questions. There must be a catalyst for both. If they wanted the news buried they would have released it Friday at or after the close. Thus it stands to reason that they wanted the information to be actionable and with a couple of days staying power. Since it's a negative out look regarding the housing industry there must have been an external driver for the revision. Perhaps it's a reaction to Uncle Sugar proposing to fund the pay roll tax holiday and unemployment insurance extension using Fannie (FNMA) and freddie (FMCC) as a fund site. I'm sure the realty industry is less than excited by the prospect.
    12 Dec 2011, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Is it possible the reduction is positioning so that signings/closing going forward will look less severe?


    I mean, every other number we get from any "official" sources is manipulated (usually inflated initially and then revised downward after it no longer matters because people look forward from recent, not deep into the past), so why not these? It works for BLS, BEA, ... "Why not me"?


    12 Dec 2011, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • H.T.Love: Season's greetings. Usually when the B(L)S or other agencies revise their numbers lower they try to keep it low key unless it makes things seem better and they can take credit for it. In this instance it doesn't make things look better so I would think the timing of the revision and the publicity surrounding it are intended to present a bleak picture intentionally.
    12 Dec 2011, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Wonder if the bleak picture is being presented during the holidays as people are more focused on spending and less focused on data. Perhaps this is the "correct" data but it was not publicized until now.
    12 Dec 2011, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • That sounds like just the type of insanity I would expect from our *chosen representatives* Robert. So much so, in fact, that I'm surprised I didn't anticipate that move. If that's not adding gas to the fire, it has to be adding a bit of diesel. What the h*ll are those knot heads thinking?!?!
    13 Dec 2011, 12:50 AM Reply Like
  • Robert,


    Perhaps since this is a first for them, they're just not so adept at the subtleties of the move? ;-)
    13 Dec 2011, 12:54 AM Reply Like
  • sorry Robert ... this comment was meant with regard to your post that "Uncle Sugar proposing to fund the pay roll tax holiday and unemployment insurance extension using Fannie (FNMA) and freddie (FMCC) as a fund site."
    16 Dec 2011, 02:23 AM Reply Like
  • WOW! SEC suing SIPC to force pay-off in the Allan Stanford ponzi scheme! Per CNBC breaking news.


    Will wonders never cease!


    12 Dec 2011, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Wonder if that is in response to MFG ponzi scheme. SEC wants to look decisive....uuuuooooooo banks should be scared..NOT!!!
    12 Dec 2011, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • I was just thinking the same thing DG. SIPC claims that they make whole 99% of investors burned by brokers etc. Their pockets have got to be getting quite light these days. Seems to me that the SEC might perhaps focus doing a better job at what they're paid to do, then they wouldn't need to be worried so much about the SIPC.


    Isn't bureaucracy a beautiful thing? Spending our tax dollars and tying up the court system to assault more tax dollars and .... or perhaps they're funded by the new money we're printing and not by tax dollars. I suppose that would make it all much more palatable. ;-)


    Just get to work already and do your jobs!
    13 Dec 2011, 01:04 AM Reply Like
  • Plus, home sales are usually down during the winter months so its timely to let the truth out now.
    12 Dec 2011, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • RMF: Season's greetings. Good observations. It still puzzles me a bit why they would do a pre release on Monday for bad news. Normally that kind of thing is reserved for late Friday as the markets are closed and the week end news cycle will have buried it by the following Monday. While dishing out bad news during a cycle when folks are expecting bad news makes sense to cushion it. I would still have thought they wouldn't draw attention to it if they were attempting to mask it or sugar coat it.
    12 Dec 2011, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Friday is a Quadruple Witching point.
    12 Dec 2011, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Well boyz and girlz, things are FINALLY coming together here at the homestead.


    Last week the upstairs hallway and the great room chimney were painted. Also had the master bedroom closet doors repainted a "dark chocolate cherry."


    Wednesday, my way too expensive "auditorium" curtains arrive.


    Thursday, the atrium gets painted.


    December 19--a ceiling fan gets installed in the MBR, and the 220V gets pulled in so that I can have my over-the-range microwave/convection oven mounted (date still not scheduled, but will be tomorrow).


    December 20--carpets getting installed in an upstairs guest room, master bedroom, the hallway, stairs and landing.


    December 22--The MBR furniture arrives. Hooray~~~king sized Temperpedic~~~I sleep in~~~that day!


    After Christmas, when all the family leaves, I will finally begin to feel this home I purchased on June 9, is mine.


    Except...I still have to figure out the audio parts of my media room, and how to do all the wiring, and how I'm going to get my 65 inch Panasonic brought in from Delaware. Still have to buy an all-in-one printer and a smart TV for the study, and a new phone arrangement for the home.


    And when all that is done, 50/50 chance I'm heading to somewhere with white beaches, warm water, and a Caribbean breeze.
    12 Dec 2011, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • I will be thinking good thoughts for you while I live in my packing crate.
    12 Dec 2011, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • Heck, Rattie, I'd send you some cheese. But where ever I end up, they likely don't make cheese as well as your neighborhood grocer vends.


    In all honesty, I'm just glad this crap will be behind me. Lot's of other stuff to get on with. Soon will come the time to reach for higher goals.


    But I will tell you this, once all this is done--I still have kept every tag on every piece of new furniture about--I will rip a cork, and then cut them all off. My mom, she never tore off tags, not even from a warning sticker wrapped around a lamp cord.


    A ceremony coming someday soon of which I will both welcome and endure mixed feelings.


    One thing I'm absolutely positive about, and that is that I would not be able to hold this forthcoming ceremony without friendships I made long ago through Quick Chat.
    13 Dec 2011, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • Maya,


    When you get to the beach, or your floating chair w/ pina collada, or where ever it is that you ultimately end up, dont forget to post some pics of the homestead somewhere so we can be envious not only of where you are, but also of where you're not! ;-) Seriously, I would love to see some of the results of all of your hard work.
    13 Dec 2011, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • One topic you don't see talked about in cnbc, wall street journal or whatever big media, it is the effects of an aging population? This would be a big drag on consumer spending in the next 10 years. Why? Because retirees are not in the mood for purchasing big ticket items. They tend to save, and spend less. Here is the big problem, our 68% of GDP is derived from consumer spending. I don't know but unless we have some major tech revolution, the next ten years are going to be of living standards dropping.
    12 Dec 2011, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • Expect them to be selling stocks and down sizing homes too. Not going to help the market at all.
    12 Dec 2011, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • A lot of baby boomers nearing retirement have 401k and pensions that will be paying them more than there current job once they retire.
    13 Dec 2011, 06:51 AM Reply Like
  • CNBC talks about it a lot in regards to fixing the ... *everything*.


    SS - aging population hurting it, got to make changes in retirement age, contributions, more privatization, .. you name it.


    GDP: effects on spending patterns, combined with lower hourly wages means the 70% consumer-driven economy will not lift GDP as in the past and tax revenues from federal to city levels will suffer.




    One last thought they've had some guests advocating: sell America to foreigners (my paraphrasing) to bring in cash. Limits on employment or require minimal investment in a business and/or buy a house with some restrictions to lift the RE market, etc.


    13 Dec 2011, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • Any holders of IVN or RIO.


    An arbitrator has ruled in favor of Rio Tinto. This article by Bloomberg notes that an agreement preventing Rio Tinto from making a hostile bid for Ivanhoe Mines now expires January 18:
    - Or as Reuters titles it, Rio Tinto Wins Fight Against Ivanhoe Poison Pill:
    - Most thorough is Canada’s Globe And Mail:
    - And the Sydney Morning Herald is good as well:
    13 Dec 2011, 01:33 AM Reply Like
  • Jon,


    Why did IVN stock drop because of this? I'm a bit confused, if Rio tries to acquire more, wouldn't that be good for price?
    13 Dec 2011, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • Jon, Springer: Seasons greetings. When I saw that on the breakfast club thread I immediately thought of you. I copied the link to post on your Mongolia thread but I see your already on it.
    13 Dec 2011, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Greetings jpau,


    I'm developing a theory on what is going on. Iteration #1:
    - Ivanhoe has a far smaller market cap than Rio Tinto
    - The Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine profits would be more meaningful to the bottom-line stock performance of Ivanhoe
    - Ivanhoe shareholders are having a knee-jerk disappointed response to no longer likely having that impact to their share price as Ivanhoe is likely to be bought out by Rio Tinto after January 18
    - However, this is an initial response and I suspect the smart money will ultimately realize Rio Tinto IS going to buy out Ivanhoe at whatever price necessary, so it might behoove shareholders to hang in there for what Rio Tinto will pay out
    - Not to mention Rio Tinto is not a bad stock to own, it just unfortunately will not receive the same impact to the bottom line (on a percentage basis) as would have Ivanhoe from the Oyu Tolgoi project


    This is a working iteration... developing.


    Also, will have more in my article on Gold Mining in Mongolia coming out in the next couple of days (being finished tonight; was 90% finished this weekend)
    13 Dec 2011, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • Sheesh! Ivanhoe Mines got creamed today. Down 22.66%.


    Is this the same Ivanhoe, Jon?
    13 Dec 2011, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Yes, it is indeed THAT Ivanhoe Mines.


    If you thought Special Sits was bad...
    13 Dec 2011, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Iran has just closed the Straits of Hormuz for military training ...


    I will be away from the keyboard for awhile gang,,,
    13 Dec 2011, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Don't be gone long and find a way to enjoy the respite regardless!


    13 Dec 2011, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Your not going up to the Goldman Sachs (GS) control center again are you? LOL. Enjoy.
    13 Dec 2011, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • That's ominous.
    13 Dec 2011, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Military training....we should join them but make it very realistic.
    13 Dec 2011, 10:23 AM Reply Like


    Looks like some "unofficial sources" in the madcap Iranian scene (Student newsletter???) is the prime source for the news. Its being disavowed by the Iranian gov.


    Still, its a foretaste of what IS coming, imo, within the next few months.


    Santa market indeed...
    13 Dec 2011, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • DG


    Don't joke like that, it may just happen!!!


    13 Dec 2011, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Must Read Charts:
    13 Dec 2011, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Oy, Gee: Seasons greetings. I thought they would have a chart correlating Corzines roll in the fall of PM prices. LOL.
    13 Dec 2011, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • What's hilarious is that some of the commenters seem not to get it...
    13 Dec 2011, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • LOL, yes. OF course, the Global Swaming chart could be less fantasy than they think...


    One should never confuse researchers with monastic monks.
    13 Dec 2011, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply »


    New QC this way - full speed ahead!




    13 Dec 2011, 01:27 PM Reply Like
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