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  • QuickChat #265 December 16, 2013 405 comments
    Dec 16, 2013 1:40 PM

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    "In the Clouds" by stan bruns 2013.

    LINE is very interesting today, many are involved with this stock, here's hoping...

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Comments (405)
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  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3699) | Send Message
     
    Hi
    16 Dec 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    'Lo!
    16 Dec 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Sell Hi
    Swing 'Lo

     

    Sweet chariots of fire theme music has got to be better than another Christmas song.

     

    Non sequitr?
    17 Dec 2013, 05:14 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    Buy HTL, sell Stilldazed
    16 Dec 2013, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    SHB: LoL! Play 'em with options!

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Looks like TB had decent guess on (LINE) bears - continued down and made new intra-day low, $29.39 so far. But since it normally drops a bit on Mon. of options expiration week I don't know it's bears shorting the crap out of it.

     

    I think I'll run some daily short stats on it tomorrow A.M, after all the exchanges are in and see if today had a jump in shorting.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Just spoke to my broker and he thinks it's as much do to with tax loss selling as anything. He has a couple of clients who bought LINE at $38, and doubled down this summer when the unit prices were far lower. Last week, they sold off the higher priced shares.

     

    He expects LINE to move up 10 percent in January.
    16 Dec 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    Just checked the AH order book for (LINE) (16:50)

     

    Bids-
    $29.48 50 shares
    $29.44 300 shares

     

    Asks-
    $30.51 200 shares
    $30.95 1000 shares

     

    Encouraging numbers after the dismal close.

     

    WT

     

    EDIT- After that the Bids drop below $29 (low volumes) and the Asks jump to $32 and up quickly with sizable volume, after a few hundred around $31-$31.50.
    16 Dec 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Shameless plug. My new post interviewing an American law firm in Myanmar
    http://onforb.es/1hfK1Wj

     

    I knew last week while doing the interview that this was going to be one of those things I did that I think is really really good, and then gets very few page views.
    17 Dec 2013, 05:16 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Well done Jon. If I was a business looking at Myanmar, the information provided would help me decide if it was worth risking.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2013, 05:56 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3699) | Send Message
     
    Hi JS,
    Very good interview. Sounds like some good go to guys for info, advice and representation if needed. I hope that our govt. removes the rest of the sanctions soon as I have understood it is the people that have been suffering, not the govt.
    17 Dec 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Hi SD,

     

    Thanks, and thanks for the comment on the article !

     

    Yeah, they seem to be doing everything and then some, some of which I couldn't mention. They are doing everything from representing a burn victim in a plane accident to government relations, corporate relations, and on and on. The bios of the four local Myanmar attorneys - and their specialities - are diverse. I'm even more interested in the Myanmar-American attorney and his role, as his story of going from refugee in 1988 to scholarship & success in the U.S. and then back to Myanmar seems like quite the story.
    17 Dec 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): Pharmaceutical CHP Order in Calif.

     

    http://bit.ly/19atUJT

     

    Pre-market $1.21, but only 7K shares thus far.

     

    Yesterday's $1.19 close was above my rising trend line at $1.185. But it was low volume, not indicative of strength (yet). Need a confirming close above that line again today, with volume.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2013, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): BTW, a significant thing in the PR, I think, is "islanding" capability and intention for use as a "peak shaver".

     

    With implementation scheduled for Mar. '14, should get a couple million dollars added to the revenue stream for the following quarter.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2013, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4809) | Send Message
     
    That Mar '14 date caught my eye as well, HTL. Made me think CPST was aware of the sales opportunity for a while.
    17 Dec 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Maya: It must be Tuesday: (LINE) up in early trade +$0.67 (+2.29%) to $30.13.

     

    But this is normal early behavior - moves either up or down early and then retraces, ... around 10:30 usually we'll know how it's going to play, generally, most of the day.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2013, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Agreed, HTL. I've also noticed that typically LINE moves downward into the close more often than upward.

     

    Sold most of my remaining shares of NVAX netting around a 45% gain. Went up too far, too fast, with FDA approval likely still four years out.
    17 Dec 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Maya: I think (NVAX) will need to raise capital too for the rest of the FDA trials. My first thought with that price target was setting up for a raise somewhere down the road, bolstered by some interim results.

     

    On LINE, buy:sell is about 1:13 - looks like someone sold into the strength, either for taking profit of getting short.

     

    But y'all had mentioned the other possibilities, so that could be it too.

     

    I noticed it went down to near one of the areas I mentioned as support resistance a while back, ~28.76-29(?) and stopped going down. Maybe setting up for the next up-leg.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2013, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Maya: that LINE buy:sell has improced from 1:1.3 to beter than 1:1.1 now as price has been creeping very carefully up from the $28.83 low at 11:45.

     

    All the big volume today came in at the peak, lasted until the low and ZAP! No more volume.

     

    Since, little ant rails up and down, up and down, ... with trend slowly higher.

     

    Makes me wonder if this was a chance for some shorters to push it down and then start carefully buying to cover.

     

    I think my April calls are looking OK. I hope the options expiration week pattern doesn't change just because of the holidays.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    The Fool is bullish on (NVAX). http://bit.ly/1fUQlSI
    23 Dec 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    Re:(LINE)

     

    Today's activity is baffling to me.

     

    I just ran some charts and determined that there was a major swing in sentiment beginning yesterday just before close and continuing through right now.

     

    Parabolic SAR reversed just prior to close yesterday;
    MACD was positive until a few minutes after the open today;
    Money flow has been negative for the last ten days- dropping steeply Monday afternoon;
    Momentum was solidly up at the open today but declined and accelerated the decline throughout the day.

     

    There may be other contradicting data however I am primarily familiar with the indicators I have listed here. Other reads welcome.

     

    Sounds almost like the old adage buy on the rumor- sell on the news.

     

    WT
    17 Dec 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Gosh, I feel (and am) like a rookie again. I'm going to have to just try to follow the conversation for a while to figure out what to buy.
    17 Dec 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    Jon-
    I have the feeling it would take you all of fifteen minutes to be in full swing- Good to see you in here.

     

    WT
    17 Dec 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Best explanation of the post LINE/LinnCo/Berry deal share pricing behavior I have yet to read:

     

    Here is what I been told was the significant reason for the sell-off in LNO and LINE. BRY was a member of the Russell index and thus a component of many index funds. Linn is not a component of any index and thus cannot be owned by index funds. About 5 million BRY shares had to be sold immediately by index funds after the announcement of the vote results. Those BRY shares could not be replaced by LNCO shares or LINE units.The steep decline in BRY dragged down LNCO and LINE.

     

    If you want the reason, don't theorize: ask a trader.

     

    Elliot Miller

     

    Color me now "un-confounded." Expecting LINE to begin to rise here forward.

     

    ####

     

    Also, Zachs has a Buy rating on Denison Mines (DNN), which is beginning to creep up. Considering increasing the size of my position. Charts from yesterday and today sure do look like the MMers were in play. If the FED doesn't taper tomorrow, I expect the January Effect to be in play with Denison.
    17 Dec 2013, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Maya: tha's good to hear. Cramer was saying bears were hammering it.

     

    Interesting that in spite of that pps never went below one of our known former support points in the $28.7-$29 range. Also interesting is that the low seems to exactly hit my long-term rising trend line. What's the odds?

     

    Anyway, I wandered over here because I saw odd small-volume AH trades and was going to holler look for us to go up tomorrow. Open maybe around $29.3x?

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2013, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    Re: LINE-

     

    Thanks, Maya-

     

    That does make sense.
    17 Dec 2013, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I must admit that it never occurred to me that Berry was an index component (never knew, never looked). Missed that angle completely. Humbling for an old dog to have forgotten an old trick...

     

    But I'm sticking to my expectation that we see $32-35 soon. Cramer could, however, be partly right as well. Strong bear targets once identified tend to attract new attention every round...
    18 Dec 2013, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    Well, I opened my mouth in the last QC about nat gas and started buying UPL. I've added a little because once I buy anything, it drops. I may well be early, but I've already talked about cold weather and utilities moving from coal to gas.

     

    Now if this is true, it can only help - patience
    http://bit.ly/JFLUQY
    17 Dec 2013, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Good find Jpau.

     

    Good for jobs for a while, bad (long-term) for U.S. manufacturers if they export to high percentage, which seems likely as folks will seek best available prices for product. Our prices here will eventually begin to rise towards what other markets pay, discounted for transport costs.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Dec 2013, 06:03 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    Jpau-
    FWIW, I believe your timing on UPL is on point.

     

    WT
    18 Dec 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I'm thinking that something a bit different will happen, guys. Markets are continuing their rapid shift from "free" bias toward "government managed" bias, and the more government components (major power utilities), cronies (major corporations), and fiat currency supports (US $ vs commodity valuations) are involved, the more likely that we will see regulatory steps to maintain the status quo.

     

    How easy will it be to put wrinkles into the regulatory environment for LNG export development that delay things for years and years, and make the business case weaker due to high compliance costs?
    18 Dec 2013, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    tb, I'm not counting on LNG at all. I don't think it's needed to boost prices.

     

    I think we're working through the excess, and I think within 2 years we'll see measurable impact from utility switchover.

     

    Pipelines for export to Mexico would be icing for the cake.

     

    I totally agree that we have a managed market, which makes almost everything tradeable, but almost nothing investable. If my thesis is correct, even if I'm a bit early, I think nat gas is one of the few that might be investable.
    18 Dec 2013, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    jpau, the more gas moved and sold, the higher the pipeline revenues. That's where some of my money is still invested.
    18 Dec 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    I agree shb, probably less risk
    18 Dec 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    SHB: And with cheap lending rates for many years to come, I can foresee an even larger increase in M&A activity in the pipeline and storage space in 2014, than we saw in 2013. Probably by a lot.

     

    It'll get to the point that in desperation to keep growing assets (as older assets become depleted) MLPs will start going after smaller and smaller oil producers; likely nat gas, too, probably as soon as 2015.

     

    Would love to get in ahead of that.

     

    Realizing that possibly no more sector is as actively shorted than the MLP space. Guessing billions were made by the shorts on LINE alone this year. It looks like the shorts are not only going (again) after LINE, but also attacking Kinder Morgan right now (which I also own).

     

    It'll be imperative for MLPs to keep those DCFs and coverage ratios well above 1.0, to keep the shorts away. So counter intuitively, another thing I expect is that MLPs will be more hesitant to increase their lofty yields. And I'm all for that. Not increasing yields helps with the ratios, and would therefore translate to a possible melioration of growth potential. Would love to see LINE and BBEP double or go up 50% in the next two years like Sunoco Logistics (SLX) and Buckeye Partners (BPL) have done.
    18 Dec 2013, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    Anyone like KMR @$72?
    19 Dec 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Remember (ETE)? My position which is house money is getting ready to double. http://yhoo.it/1a4fwNS
    23 Dec 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Congrats Robert!

     

    HardToLove
    23 Dec 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Bob: Your ETE position isn't going to double in value, but will in shares due to the 2:1 split. I love the $1B share buyback! Great move on your house money!

     

    Loving that my ETP piggybacked this announcement and was up $1.53 today.
    23 Dec 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Correction: ETP was up $1.28 today.
    23 Dec 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    PIMCO puts up a warning flag on Australia-

     

    http://bit.ly/1fEv7s5

     

    WT
    18 Dec 2013, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    What? No "tapir" talk?

     

    http://binged.it/1kiWB9z
    18 Dec 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    "What? No "tapir" talk?"

     

    AARRRGGGHHHH!
    18 Dec 2013, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3362) | Send Message
     
    currently in AXIH, CPST, QTWW, NVAX and TNK.

     

    Have no upside targets on any of them.

     

    CPST is quite interesting as it starting moving into California and onto Cruise ships.
    18 Dec 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    Freya: Using low cost natgas and heat recovery technology to scavenge the waste heat, I believe that a CPST combined heat and power system can actually save substantial money over buying electricity for general energy and gas for heating. Especially for any company that needs to provide substantial amounts of hot water or process steam.

     

    Big coal fired electricity generators MUST throw away 60% of the heat they use and even super high efficiency gas turbines (in the 50MW realm) throw away around 45%.

     

    Given low interest rates to borrow the cost of the u-turbines, it looks like a no-brainer. The only question is the time to return the capex.

     

    I also own CPST, obviously.
    18 Dec 2013, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3362) | Send Message
     
    The Cal plant is estimated to run at 90% efficiency......

     

    wonder what fuel cells operate at?
    19 Dec 2013, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    Freya asked: "The Cal plant is estimated to run at 90% efficiency......
    wonder what fuel cells operate at?"

     

    The FCEL type of cell that directly burns natural gas is about 40% efficient at converting fuel to electricity. It only uses the H part of CH3 to make electricity. The Carbon is simply burned and exhausted as CO2. With heat recovery, it can achieve 90% TOTAL efficiency. A good industrial boiler can also achieve 90% efficiency if HEAT is the ONLY desired output.

     

    But remember that a medium sized gas turbine (10MW?) can reach 45 to 50% fuel to electricity conversion efficiency and also have its heat recovered for other uses.

     

    I see the FCEL fuel cells as a niche product that is supported by brain dead "renewable energy" handouts, when it is no more renewable then a turbine running on nat-gas.

     

    If cheap hydrogen were available, fuel cells could make sense. But it isn't, except in special circumstances.
    19 Dec 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    'billy. Excellent review. Right on.
    19 Dec 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    SHB: The niche may be even smaller than a lot of folks think as fuel cells are best at steady-state: they take a long time to warm up.

     

    IIRC, they also have issues with "stack" deterioration and, on such as the Bloom Box, need replacement every five years or so?

     

    I understand that they also have heat disposal/insulation that must be done as they run very hot?

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    >Hard; The fuel cells that directly burn nat-gas need to run at around red heat. That allows the CH3 to dissociate into H and C, so the H can be used by the fuel cell reaction. The carbon burns in air to supply the heat needed to keep the thing running.

     

    And yes, the cell stacks deteriorate over time and the cell must be torn down and rebuilt (FCEL for sure) on some schedule. Some number of years. The FC materials are pricey because of the high temp requirements.

     

    Not any economic competition for Capstone, AFAIK.
    19 Dec 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    On July 29, 2009, Broadwind Energy (BWEN) share price was $113.20 per share. Dire times, and the high REE expense to make wind turbines back in those years "immured" the stock all the way down to the $2.00 levels.

     

    Broadwind had a good day today, up 11.8% to a $8.43 close. Up about 400% off the end of last years lows.

     

    Something is going on with this company that's taking it higher. Between yesterday and today, BWEN was up over 28%.

     

    SWAG: Perhaps conjoined with GE?

     

    In gathering ideas about companies, any company, that might double next year, BWEN has to rank among tops in consideration.

     

    Extremely choppy chart to conjure up when to enter, though....
    19 Dec 2013, 02:24 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2710) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the research idea, Maya. I don't know much about (BWEN), but what you cite is intriguing.
    mj
    19 Dec 2013, 05:51 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2710) | Send Message
     
    FYI note that "MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co., a unit of Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A), yesterday announced an order for 1,050 megawatts of Siemens AG (SIE) wind turbines in the industry’s largest order to date for land-based gear ... (BWEN) will supply the towers." http://bloom.bg/1cdZ6YQ
    mj
    19 Dec 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Sub-Sector Flash Rotation alert...

     

    Incoming, at the moment.
    19 Dec 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Mercy!

     

    IIRC, GE was involved a few years back with APower Systems, a Chinese wind turbine outfit that went defunct.

     

    Seems Buffett and Siemens may have better timing.

     

    This also could be good for MCP and Lynas owners...eventually.
    19 Dec 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2710) | Send Message
     
    Update just FYI on (BWEN) -- insider sold nearly 64,000 shares yesterday. Also note that the month of December has produced a number of large insider sales of (BWEN) and only a small number of symbolic purchases. http://bit.ly/1c6oZUJ
    mj
    25 Dec 2013, 05:43 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2710) | Send Message
     
    Since I like to trade directly on select foreign exchanges and therefore take fx risk in the process -- I was recently asked whether I also trade currencies. Many of the reasons I continue to shun fx trading are contained in this latest Bloomberg article. If you think HFTs and prop desks sometimes challenge the integrity of the equity markets -- take a look at the unregulated apparent collusion which infuses the fx market. 4 banks control more than half of this $5.3-trillion-a-day foreign-exchange market, the biggest in the world by volume. http://bloom.bg/18AA85f
    mj
    19 Dec 2013, 06:38 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Mercy: Excellent find. Something that caught my eye was "The U.K. regulator also is reviewing how prices are set in the $20 trillion gold market, according to a person with knowledge of the matter".

     

    Say what?!

     

    That's going to lead right back to the same suspects in the other markets I think.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2013, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    (LINE): One of our support resistance points, now support, did it's job yesterday and day before. Day before bottomed at $28.83 and yesterday the low was $28.74, a very small overshoot of the $28.76 low side of the range I looked for.

     

    Further, the prior day honored a rising longer-term support line and yesterday closed barely below the estimated $28.90 value on continued reducing volume.

     

    Could be the push down is done now. A move up on decent volume today would suggest the start of a leg up. Could be limited though because we have known prior support/resistance at the lower edge of a gap, $29.76. We've "churned" just above that level recently, so there's a reasonable chance that short-term action could do that again if we do move towards that range.

     

    The leg up, if it happens, may help define short-term sideways trading channel. Don't know we've got that yet, but it could develop.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2013, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Great TA, HTL! Ummm...the line has been drawn!
    19 Dec 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Took profits on 1/3 of my $30 Apr calls bout 12/17 @ $1.40. When we hit $0.297x area, I figured an intra-day retrace was in order. We'll see.

     

    I put the sell in above the market price a few hours earlier.

     

    If so, I'll buy some back to do it again.

     

    The other 2/3rds are for a longer-term play.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    EDIT bout->bought.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4809) | Send Message
     
    Lab R&D presently, BUT

     

    http://bit.ly/J7SOgA

     

    "Genifuel Corp., a biofuels company from Utah, has licensed the technology and is attempting to utilize the process on a larger, industrial scale. "

     

    Genifuel Corp is currently privately held.
    19 Dec 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    The "high heat and pressure" part of the "algae to crude oil" process implies a significant energy input. That energy use could be a problem for overall efficiency.

     

    I wish them well, but.......
    19 Dec 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    SHB: More significant may be $ input since conversion of cheap energy forms to expensive energy forms is always attractive.

     

    ISTR (CPST) being used in various places to promote biodigesters (wastewater treatment IIRC and hog farms to make electricity). I think the same would do well for bio-fuel.

     

    Cheap NG running MTs, using both the electricity produced and the waste heat. electricity could be sold to the grid if there's any excess, but right-sizing should minimize that potential.

     

    My bigger concern is the water used, as demonstrated in a couple links I posted in the past.

     

    If they could recycle near-100% of the water, or required very litlle somehow ...

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    HTL: You can also use the waste heat from a gas turbine to heat bio-waste hot enough to gassify it. Then burn the resulting "mixed organic" gas-liquid fuel to run the turbine. Why gassify and then convert to liquid fuels if you can burn the gassifier output directly? If you want electricity, of course.

     

    I don't know how the energy balance works out, but if the raw organic matter were dried with solar heat, it almost has to be net positive. Heating the water in bulk organics to vapor for removal before cooking the organics in a gasifier is a big percent energy user.

     

    The char that comes from a thermal gassifier is a clean and high (relatively) density carbon fuel. If it is pelletized, it can be burned in a low soot, clean stove.

     

    BTW, don't tell a "CO2 greenhouse/ global warming" fanatic this, but low budget, open fires (billions of 3rd world folks) burning bio-waste emit huge amounts of soot and ash particles. Recent research indicates that the black particles settling on otherwise white snow near the poles could be a BIG contributor to increased insolation and so atmospheric heating. Close to the "CO2 effect" in magnitude. Sigh.
    23 Dec 2013, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Joseph: There's been a leadership change in Chile. Any ideas if this change is amenable to downtrodden SQM's future (down pretty significantly today, too)? Also have been reading more and more lately that emerging markets are where large institutions are beginning to speculate...another sector rotation going on?

     

    http://bit.ly/1cD1146
    19 Dec 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Maya: My wife, from Chile, is all enthusiastic about the lady. She has been there before and, according to my wife, was very good for the country.

     

    How that would affect SQM I can't say, but she is popular.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    As usual, the future for any individual stock would involve wither they are In or Out. SQM appears to be an "out" for the new Center/Left government.

     

    The pledge to increase corporate income taxes by 25% could have something to do with that, too.

     

    Some zero-sum projections for the resulting revenue flow to government are at work, too (essentially promising a 25% boost from those taxes, with no deleterious effect upon corporate contributions to the national bottom line from the tax hike). These rarely work out as advertised...

     

    It should be possible to pick a new set of cronies which will benefit from the new, leftward emphasis, however. Corporate sponsors of the winners, plus perhaps those who will win contracts to build the new schools, hospitals, and government infrastructure.

     

    I would see this development as potentially troublesome for the Chilean mining industry in general, since I do not expect the new taxes will actually generate the funds needed for the promised social engineering. The mines will be a popular follow-up target, just as they were in Australia and elsewhere, when the original revenue projects don't work out. Support for union demands in the labor environment will also play a role, as will regulatory changes which will increase mining costs.

     

    All these changes are evolutionary, rather than revolutionary, imo. Long time coming, and still arriving throughout the commodity nations like Chile. Look for developments like this to be supportive of the overall high prices for production of precious metals, base metals, and commodities of all kinds.
    19 Dec 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1733) | Send Message
     
    Everyone expected SQM to fall if Ms Bachelet was (re- / once again) elected, yet the stock is up 10% since that day. Could be an oversold bounce or it could be that the fix is in with the new leadership. Companies that size tend to hedge their political bets pretty well...
    30 Dec 2013, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    If my suspicions that Kinder Morgan has been under attack by the shorts, Richard Kinder, CEO of (KMI) took advantage and bought $28,000,000 worth of KMI from prices ranging from $33.04, to $33.86.

     

    Way to fight back!

     

    ####

     

    LINE up $1.01 today. Take that shorts, too!
    19 Dec 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Maya: You left out the word "in"! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    In just speaking with my broker (while adding some LYSCF) he got a alpha alert from Wells; Raymond James just upgraded LINE to Strong Buy.
    19 Dec 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    Re: (LINE) AH Order Book lowest ask is for 30.95 - 1000 shares. at 16:11
    19 Dec 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    WWT: Use your jaundiced eye on AH stuff. Liquidity is typically low, sans big news (Raymond James qualifies I guess), spreads are quite often wide and, AFAICT from long watching other stock, there may be be some kind of "clean up" going on by MMS et al. E.g, today includes 11 trades flagged as "form t". These trades may take up to three days to get executed. Today includes about 6K in volume on those. I really don't understand the meaning of those.

     

    Sometimes I think I notice these AH oddities seem to set initial (MM?) entries for market the next day. But I've not been able to reliably identify any solid consistent behavior related to these AH activities.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2013, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Thanks!

     

    Agree on the jaundiced eye. I do however manage to pick up some gleanings AH.

     

    Got 100@ 29.82 AH yesterday. The last AH went for 30.10 this am. AH bids are at a high of 29.85 just before open today.

     

    WT
    20 Dec 2013, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Shall we do Douche Bag of the year for 2013? It won't be the same without Yellow Hoard. However, if you all want to vent ( I know I do!) I can set up an instablog. Please, advise.
    19 Dec 2013, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Let's do it! One of my favorite year-ending ranting events of things to do amongst us Renegades. Now will be five ? years running.

     

    Let's do some bashing!

     

    I will extend to Yellow Hoard an invite. Gotta see what he thinks about PMs, especially about gold manipulation. Saw his iconic avatar on Zero Hedge a couple of weeks ago.

     

    Always time for some comic relief, like Putin finally, finally pardoning his oil tycoon billionaire adversary from jail after ten freaking years, only because he wanted to run against Putin.

     

    Have way more in the holster.
    20 Dec 2013, 02:31 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3362) | Send Message
     
    I have a candidate for a Multi-year DB award.

     

    I do not know of any other author who's stock picking prowess has resulted in losses for over 5 years straight........and counting.
    20 Dec 2013, 02:16 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    Re, DB of the year award. This should be good! :-)
    20 Dec 2013, 02:55 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    OK, I put up an instablog for Douchie of the year.
    20 Dec 2013, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    OOPS! Here is the link for the 2013 Douche Bag of the Year Award:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    20 Dec 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    It appears the DBOTY insta has been obliterated, along with all comments.

     

    Did the SA gods disapprove?
    1 Jan 2014, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, Doc. Poof! TDBOTY was the only reason I wanted to check into SA today; aside from wishing all A Happy New Year!

     

    IIRC, historically the SA web elves become a little more discerning during the Holidays. Seen it too often for this to not be a trend (one of MY TDBOTY comments got poofed, and I was sent a warning).

     

    Hoping OyGee didn't get poofed, too. As SA has in the past taken down, deleted, and completely removed some Renegades memberships.
    1 Jan 2014, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    All of OG's as host QCs are gone. OG's standalone comments not appearing in OG's insta-blogs are still accessible.
    1 Jan 2014, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I believe OG deleted the old QC's herself a while back...
    1 Jan 2014, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    FPA: OG removed all of the QCs she hosted a few years back, otherwise I'd have way over 10,000 comments.
    1 Jan 2014, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Thanks TB and Maya…I did not know she did that.
    1 Jan 2014, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    I don't know what happened, because the DBOTY shows up when I click "you've got comments" to read, but has disappeared and when I click on the instablog it says I don't have an instablog.
    It looks like James Clapper wins, with 5 votes for Maya's comment.
    Perhaps that win was influenced somewhat by Maya's encounter with the SA robocop? The renegades are often baffled by SA's inconsistent and sometimes nonsensical policing of their site. Still, we appreciate the forum.
    Harold Simmons died the other day. He's the Texan that invented the leveraged buy out, and controlled a number of public companies as an activist investor.
    He also famously called Obama the most dangerous man in America.
    RIP, Harold Simmons.
    Colorado sells legal recreational pot today, with a 25% tax on the product. Are we seeing the end of prohibition, 21st century style?
    Best wishes to all for a healthy and successful 2014.
    1 Jan 2014, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    I did not take down the TDBOTY so I guess SA did. But, the comments still showed from the "you've got comments" email!
    2013 Douche Bag Of The Year Award [Edit or Delete]14 comments
    Dec 20, 2013 9:40 AM
    Here we go again! The end of 2013 is upon us, with astounding changes world-wide.

     

    Who got your goat? Sound off! You are cordially invited to submit your best rant as we award another "Douchie".

     

    Here are the rules:

     

    1. One nomination per individual. Please, do not attack Seeking Alpha contributors or participants.

     

    2. It's OK to mention other prospective nominees for honorable mention.

     

    3. The most thumbs up wins.

     

    4. Feel free to mention someone you admired this year to counter-balance the negative frenzy. We need some good Karma.

     

    5. A winner will be declared on 1/1/2014.

     

    In the good guys column, I want to mention Edward Snowden for exposing the depth of the federal government's spying on law-abiding citizens. Despite being labeled a traitor, I believe he did us all a favor by exposing the truth at his own personal peril.

     

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

     

    Back To optionsgirl's Instablog HomePage »
    Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.
    Share this Instablog with a colleague
    0
    Comments (15) Track new comments

     

    MayascribeComments (8674)
    I'll get after my DOTY in a couple of days. Celebrating Christmas Saturday. Family members began arriving Wednesday, more this afternoon and tonight; new custom mantle going up as I write this....

     

    Busy, busy, busy...and I agree with Snowden white hat award. 20 Dec 2013, 12:56 PMReplyDelete CommentLike3

     

    FreyaComments (2207)
    Period. Period. Period. There are too many Candidates.

     

    At SeekingAlpha: Anyone who makes an absolute and binding statement about any stock without a CAVIAT is a Douche;

     

    In the world: Again too many candidates but I'll go with Anyone who believes that IRAN doesn't want a Nuc. 20 Dec 2013, 04:41 PMReplyDelete CommentLike3

     

    Windwood TraderComments (1464)
    OK - I was really hoping someone else would go ahead of me but, oh well, in I go.

     

    I was giving this a lot of thought and Freya's comment gave me a nudge-

     

    I submit, Bashar al-Assad the devil personified. There can't be too many others worse than this one.

     

    On the good guy side I suggest Pope Francis. I am a long way from anyone being able to me religious but I feel this man carries a message for societies all over the world. He offers a lot. 20 Dec 2013, 10:50 PMReplyDelete CommentLike3

     

    FreyaComments (2207)
    oops forgot about the Good Guy.....

     

    Roberts - Duck Dynasty,

     

    Guess who's running a Duck Dynasty Marathon? 21 Dec 2013, 08:55 AMReplyDelete CommentLike1

     

    Jon SpringerComments (3812)
    Lurking and contemplating this epic competition. Alas, probably can't participate unless I set up an anonymous secondary SA account.

     

    Noticed the QC has gotten meatier and lost a lot of the chatter about non-investing stuff. Well done, however it was done. 23 Dec 2013, 01:03 PMReplyDelete CommentLike5

     

    MayascribeComments (8674)
    Got a robo email this Christmas Eve from SA that my rant here on this remote, backroom SA DBOTY Insta, about my writings of James Crapper, the Director of Intelligence, who willfully lied before congress about whether or not the NSA was spying on US citizens; and then also about Kevin Kaiser of Hedgeye, who wrote specious cr#p about Linn Energy, was deleted by SA.

     

    I would like to have a "words and phrases you can't use" list from Seeking Alpha. What happened to my comment was just not right. 24 Dec 2013, 01:56 AMReplyDelete CommentLike5

     

    siliconhillbillyComments (1894)
    Secret words, Maya, secret words. 24 Dec 2013, 01:19 PMReplyDelete CommentLike3

     

    Windwood TraderComments (1464)
    We need to come up with a code word list for serious rants.

     

    "Iffy" = Dumb as a stump!
    "Alternative thinker" = Totally clueless!
    "In his own sphere" - Off in the land of the parakeets!
    "Interesting position" = Pieces missing from his place-setting.
    "Unique thoughts" = Too scatterbrained to measure. 24 Dec 2013, 04:51 PMReplyDelete CommentLike4

     

    Jon SpringerComments (3812)
    His/her elevator doesn't stop on all the floors. 24 Dec 2013, 10:16 PMReplyDelete CommentLike4

     

    SMaturinComments (1487)
    Lacks a box to think outside of. 31 Dec 2013, 01:17 PMReplyDelete CommentLike2

     

    Windwood TraderComments (1464)
    Abstract thinking relationship = Two cans short of a six-pack. 25 Dec 2013, 02:50 PMReplyDelete CommentLike2

     

    MayascribeComments (8674)
    The problem with the gene pool is that there is no lifeguard 25 Dec 2013, 03:39 PMReplyDelete CommentLike3

     

    robert.b.fergusonComments (9989)
    Here is a wish for health, wealth and happiness to all the Gades and participants in the QC, concentrators and peripheral pages. As I see it Barak, Obama should get the DOTY along with his lie of the year award. He has done immense damage to the nation and refuses to take responsibility for any of it. On the good guy side I second the nomination Pope Francis. Did you see he was named best dressed man of 2013. Perhaps his robes were whiter than the other popes who were never accorded the title. 31 Dec 2013, 02:55 PMReplyDelete Comment4

     

    Jon SpringerComments (3812)
    Actually, I have a vote: Mugabe.

     

    No nation will ultimately benefit more from the death of their reigning dictator than the kind people of Zimbabwe, though there may be a price to pay of instability in the immediate years afterward.

     

    And yes, big thumbs up to the Vatican's Pope Francis - for good guy of the year - who is doing so much to redefine the role of the Pope in the world, though it remains to be seen if his legacy will be lasting or an anomaly. 31 Dec 2013, 05:57
    1 Jan 2014, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Yup, I was one of them that got poofed.
    When I later left SA for quite awhile, I took down all my instablogs. Mea culpa, as this appears to have bothered some of our veterans.
    But, this one is SA's choice, not mine. I did not remove the DOTY.
    1 Jan 2014, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    It's back. Focal Point told me how to retrieve it. It was in instablog purgatory.
    1 Jan 2014, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2710) | Send Message
     
    Whether you think the market is headed for a correction OR for continued euphoria -- collapsing earnings growth is a key variable to watch.

     

    Michael Lombardi of the Profit Confidential blog points out that "of the 106 companies in the S&P 500 that have issued guidance for the fourth quarter, 94 of them have warned. That's 89% of them warning it will be negative -- well above the five-year average rate of 63%, according to FactSet." http://bit.ly/19CsO7T
    mj
    20 Dec 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    MJ: Thanks for that info.

     

    Time for (SPXU) again?
    20 Dec 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I believe the "warning" statistics are altering their behavior in line with the new political and geopolitical realities. There is only so much room at the top of the crony pyramid...

     

    Going forward we will see the spoils system more concentrated toward the top of the pyramid, and companies are just adapting their projections based upon the new game.

     

    Obamacare will doubtless get some of the blame, but is in reality a small impact on the S&P 500 component companies, which are all large enough to see only limited consequences.
    20 Dec 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2710) | Send Message
     
    Agree WT and TB. Need to figure out where to hide (for short stints) if euphoria deteriorates. (SPXU), (SDS), (SQQQ), (RWM), (SCO) are all on my watch list. BTW -- here's a really good article on the state of play for gold miners. It may well be that share dilution to fund debt may be a greater shareholder hazard than the price/oz dropping another $200. http://bloom.bg/1dU4opF
    mj
    20 Dec 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    MJ: Agree with the debt issues, and not just for gold miners. The entire commodity sector has been put through a similar sausage grinder. There will come a sweet spot when an individual stock will make sense, but the overall conditions are actually frightening.
    20 Dec 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    More bad news from Fukushima-

     

    http://fxn.ws/192E2lm
    20 Dec 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    I wondered this A/M. if the pps might hit resistance at the 200-day SMA., $30.6698 right now.

     

    Yep.

     

    Next move needs to be above it, which, when confirmed, will trigger more bullish behavior.

     

    Replaced the $30 Apr call I took profit on yesterday with a $31 strike @ $1.45, 5 cents above the low price for the day.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    I loaded up on the 30s April on Monday. Profit there now. If the move continues I will trade up.

     

    Sold the 30s '15 for a double. I figured that position would just suffer time rot.

     

    Still have 35s '15 10% loss.

     

    Took positions in (SPXU) and in (SDS)
    20 Dec 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    Nat gas closed at $4.44

     

    Added UPL again, which somehow closed down $.20 from the where it opened Monday. FWIW, UNG was up almost a dollar from Monday at 9:30

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Have a bit of SDR too, but that one's a bit more iffy - I think UPL is as close to "can't miss" as one could hope for
    20 Dec 2013, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    I just established a small position in ProShares Short Russell2000 (RWM).

     

    It is a -1:1 ETF bet on a lower broad market. Sure, it's dead money, but so are the various Money Market funds I have cash parked in.

     

    On the RWM chart, with a LOG price (vertical) scale, the 200 day MA is good fit to a straight line for the last 4 years. I know near nothing about technical analysis, but from an engineer's view that says the price/time is approaching an asymptotic flat bottom. Seems like a good time to start nibbling.
    21 Dec 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    >siliconhilbilly-

     

    If 94 out of 106 S&P 500 companies have warned about fourth quarter performance (MJ's link ten posts prior) I too feel this news is not indicative of broad market growth. Gravity may win out here.

     

    WT

     

    EDIT- Just checked (RWM) chart. Money moved in just before the close yesterday and momentum has been moving up.
    21 Dec 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    WT: interesting. Thanks for the comment.
    21 Dec 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    I just spent 30 minutes or so listening to Harry Dent's latest free email talk.

     

    http://bit.ly/1ku63Hj

     

    His ideas on demographics seem to mesh with other indicators that predict a near term market top (and turnover). He says "very soon"; like a few weeks to months. Just a bit more fuel for the "step aside" warning I have been getting for the last few months.

     

    I am now wondering if the petroleum energy MLPs and similar high yield energy entities will be able to maintain their dividend payouts if another crunch lowers petroleum product's prices. NG pipelines should do relatively well, given the persistent need for NG. But gasoline and diesel could fall with the lower economic activity that will follow a stock and housing value drop.

     

    Thoughts? Historical info on energy producer's yield variations? Maybe during the 2007-2009 Credit Crunch? Must be lots of info, but spread out I don't know where.
    21 Dec 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    On what I believe to be on a rationale basis I feel that energy consumption will likely not change much unless of course we enter into a cataclysmic breakdown. Therefore the safer bet may be in transportation rather than drilling, servicing or producing. No matter what the price the stuff needs to be moved.

     

    Pipeline partners, rail and truck. Suck up the beefy dividends.

     

    More rolled over tank cars in the middle of towns I suppose as well.
    21 Dec 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4809) | Send Message
     
    WWT's suggested perspective is more likely than not a sound one in my view. U.S. energy intensity is likely to continue its' downward trend while energy intensity of "third world" nations continues upward. Some softening of oil prices might flow from increased production from developing producing areas, and Arab oil exporter political desire to deny Iran enhanced oil revenue.

     

    From an energy perspective, it might be informative to examine S&P 500 corporate rationale's for Q4 warnings on earnings with an eye on distinctions drawn in expectations regarding performance in different global regions and exchange rate fluctuations. Looking at energy demand in the coming year, one might benefit from keeping in mind the broad macroeconomic environment many economists project for the coming decade. The Conference Board (http://bit.ly/A5waRt), for instance, suggests
    "The medium term slowdown in the growth trend of emerging and developing markets is more dramatic. As China, India, Brazil, and others mature from rapid, investment-intensive ‘catch-up’ growth to a more balanced growth model, the structural ‘speed limits’ of their economies are likely to decline, reducing emerging market growth from 4.3 percent, on average per year, from 2014-2019 to 3.2 percent from 2020-2025.
    Emerging markets constituted just below half of world GDP in 2012, when converted to US$ at purchasing power parities, up from about one third in 2000. In the next decade this shift will continue at a much slower speed. By 2025, emerging markets will capture just over half of world GDP, with China clearly being the largest economy in the world. "
    21 Dec 2013, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    A recent (17 December) article on Lynas. Optimistic after a couple of qualifications.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    21 Dec 2013, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Started reading WWT, but my stomach is growling!

     

    Thanks for linking - I'll finish reading tomorrow.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Dec 2013, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    HTL:
    You're welcome-
    21 Dec 2013, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    This is a news aggregator from Reuters sans advertising that I have been receiving for a year? I find it really worthwhile and think you may feel the same. I suggest going to the upper right section and hit the 'About' link first to get an idea what it's all about.

     

    http://bit.ly/1exnBlL

     

    WT

     

    EDIT For those of you playing the Douche Bag of the year submittal there are many suggestions here!
    22 Dec 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3362) | Send Message
     
    Get onboard NVAX or some non-egg vaccine producer.

     

    This H7N9 strain is resistant to Tamiflu and particularily virulent. 45 0f 135 dead.......they are watching this one very closely.
    22 Dec 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    Latest info on H7N9 transmissibility to humans.

     

    http://bit.ly/JWnmTG

     

    Summary: H7N9 still greatly prefers birds. Mutation always possible.
    22 Dec 2013, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3362) | Send Message
     
    Mutation is Probable.....as H7N9 suggests......up from H1N1.

     

    whether it goes Viral is possible.
    23 Dec 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    Here's a yawner of a suggestion

     

    PRE-PD 6.5% cumulative, call date was 2009, no maturity date, appears to qualify for 15% tax rate

     

    @ 22.3, paying 7.2% - not bad for Baa2/BBB is it?
    22 Dec 2013, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    (LINE): Yesterday bumped the 200-day SMA, $30.6696. Pre-market makes it look like it will challenge it today. Trades 2,288 $31.80 and 100 @ $0.3095. So high and low both above.

     

    This doesn't strongly suggest a break above, but does suggest an open somewhere in this range?

     

    HardToLove
    23 Dec 2013, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I don't trust premarket as indicators, but I DO anticipate a breakout above the 200 SMA this week...
    23 Dec 2013, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    Markets are up again and I just doubled my position in (RWM). Also sold another block of (WM).

     

     Will the euphoria end with the coming of the New Year hangovers?
    23 Dec 2013, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Ford to lose all of this years Latin American profit of $350M solely due to Venezuela devaluing its bolivar by 44% in one day, today!

     

    Other companies affected by this devaluation are Clorox, Toyota, Diageo, Mattel, and amazingly, Tupperware. Thinking any PM miner in Venezuela will take a hit, too.

     

    http://on.barrons.com/...

     

    24 Dec 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    The currency wars are entering a new phase - preemptive strikes...
    24 Dec 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    Pater Tenebrarum on the new property bubble enabled by the ZIRP of the Fed. Good info I didn't have.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    24 Dec 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    SHB: What Blackstone is doing skews all numbers about housing. Good article (that makes me want to upchuck), and something I need to pay attention to as cities such as Las Vegas, Chicago, Phoenix and more are where large institutions have been buying homes hand over fist and then renting them out, causing in part a "false spike" in housing prices.

     

    24 Dec 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2710) | Send Message
     
    SH, thanks for linking this article it is really well done. I'll be following you on (RWM) as the Santa Rally fizzles.

     

    Happy and safe holidays Quick Chatters!
    mj
    24 Dec 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    Pater has repeatedly impressed me on the insight he shows. He must read 25 hours a day ;-)
    24 Dec 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Merry Christmas Everyone!
    24 Dec 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Happy Holidays To All Quick Chatters!

     

    Here's a very short, quite funny Christmas shopping vid that I annually post in Quick Chat for the newbie Chatters:

     

    http://bit.ly/1c3Q2Dx
    24 Dec 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    My daughter's birthday was yesterday, my nephew's on the 22nd and my wife's is today and uh.. Christmas!

     

    Have a happy everyone!
    24 Dec 2013, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Reading that a few QCers are already or are considering shorting the market right now. To that I offer a word of caution as 25 out the past 29 years the market has moved upward during the final 15 trading days of December. I also expect this years edition of the Santa Clause melt up to continue through the first week of next year.

     

    I know, this years different. But I wouldn't trade against that kind of past info, and expect the S & P 500 to trade up to 1850 before a retrace happens.
    24 Dec 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2710) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    Agree with you on the caution for shorting an index. I'm considering it -- but also think the rally could go on for awhile. I'm not very good at predicting chart retracing points -- so I take it day by day in assessing price action and whatever else is influencing/reflecting investor sentiment. So I may move in a day or in a month -- it depends on a lot of variables.

     

    What I do know with absolute certainty is that any index short position I take will be for very short periods due to time decay (holding for an hour or a day or ...) and that gains on these index shorts are most favorable when the buy is during the later stages of euphoria while the index short is beaten down. Getting the timing close to right is indeed always the challenge. BTW one variable I weight heavily in my evaluation is the ratio of insider selling to buying -- insider actions always educate me more than the media regarding the fuel behind the euphoria.

     

    Thanks for your perspective.
    mj
    25 Dec 2013, 05:20 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    MJ, i'm with you....its all about timing. We all know a correction will come eventually. Question is when.

     

    Merry Christmas all.
    25 Dec 2013, 05:21 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    I missed this whole long move this year, and as someone who was "out of it" most of the year, I have to say I don't get it.

     

    Having lived outside of the markets most of the year, I see nothing that has substantively changed in the economy of the U.S. or the world that merits the stock exchange moves of the past year.

     

    I don't know that I would short either, as I don't know what would trigger a sense of reality in the markets either. As long as things are happy and the printing presses still work, I'm not sure what the impetus is for a reversal other than to take a breather.
    25 Dec 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Jon, I can only speak for myself....but I am not forecasting a crash, just that "breather" u mentioned. I've taken profits, but still hold half my long term holds.

     

    I probably won't short the mkt other than like MJ mentioned for a short time or even a few hours.
    25 Dec 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Jon: In an effort to find a chart that shows how global GNP has increased significantly since 2008, I stumbled into this hilarious and brilliantly scripted video titled Keynes vs. Hayek -- The Fight Of The Century:

     

    http://bit.ly/pdnzQt

     

    Enjoy!
    25 Dec 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Mercy: Knowing that you like to play the currencies, here's my Holiday gift to you; it's an interactive chart called "Burgernomics," which compares the price of a Big Mac from country to country, implying which currency is overvalued, or undervalued. Of course, Venezuela changed a whole lot yesterday ;-)

     

    Inexact, yes...but this is great stuff!

     

    http://econ.st/18Lp3hT
    25 Dec 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Maya: That's slick!

     

    HardToLove
    25 Dec 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2710) | Send Message
     
    Awesome chart, Maya.

     

    I actually recall craving a McD's sandwich during one of my first business trips to Japan several years ago -- after I overdosed a bit on sushi. When I saw the price of a McD's fish sandwich -- I was sure the USD had been severely devalued that day! LOL

     

    Many thanks,
    mj
    25 Dec 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    Jon-
    My thoughts always lead back to Bernanke Bucks. We all suspected that the $85 Billion a month was and is really a backstop for the market and to beef up the TBTFs reserves in the event another cash crunch comes to bear.

     

    Too many times there was no rationale for the market's continuing to avoid gravity, and too many times we cautionary folks bought index puts and put out shorts with limited success. P/E ratios are downright scary right now and as was reported a few days back 94 out of 106 S&P companies gave warning guidance for the fourth quarter.

     

    I believe the fed was attempting to seed the clouds of recovery and the scheme had much less than successful results so far. Unemployment numbers are a joke and labor participation rates seem to be ignored by those that should care. Consumers are supposed to yank a recovery up by the bootstraps and that just ain't happening.

     

    There sure could be another "rally" but I have no confidence in any strength if one should develop.

     

    WT
    25 Dec 2013, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    My good deed for the holidays this year, covering the story of three guys who can't be with their families this year (with supporting quotes from two senators and one congresswoman).

     

    Second Christmas Without Families For Executives In Mongolia http://onforb.es/1dCtSHv

     

    Merry Christmas and Happy Chinese Food (to the non-Christmas celebrators),
    Jon
    25 Dec 2013, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    Way OT.

     

    Pocket lights today are greatly improved from the 2ea., AA cell "penlight" of yore. I received an Olight S10-L2 as a present today. It uses one 3V lithium "camera" battery for power. Overall size: 2.9 inch long and 0.9 inch diameter. Truly pocket sized. 4 light levels and a strobe function, all coded by pressing one button. One hundred hours on "low" at 5 lumens, 85 lumens for 7 hrs on medium. High could be used for a slow driving headlight at 300+ lumens for a hour or so. About $40 on Amazon.

     

    If you aren't familiar with this new LED tech, you should check it out. Everyone who can should carry one for emergencies and convenience.

     

    High beam in the face at short range causes temporary blindness at night. It also causes an immediate "look away" reflex at normal room lighting levels.
    25 Dec 2013, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    SH, what a coincidence, my mother and aunt received these same lights as a Christmas gift !

     

    I have not had time to read the specs, but they are way cool.
    25 Dec 2013, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    Yep, these LED flashlights are terrific. I got interested in them several years ago and went a little overboard with them. Some almost rival car headlights using size 18650 lithium-ion rechargeables. Another area that China excels in.

     

    Buy your CR123 batteries online from someone like Battery Junction or Four Sevens -- vastly cheaper than retail stores.
    25 Dec 2013, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    (TUR) is a once most favorite ETF that I watch closely looking for a re-entry point but disruptions internally have darkened my visions of opportunity.

     

    These clowns have taken blatant corruption to a form of art!

     

    http://bit.ly/19NEhRX

     

    My advice is to stay on the sidelines until the Turkish citizenry acquire a few ropes and put them to good use.

     

    WT
    26 Dec 2013, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Just minutes ago, (DNN) spiked up 6 cents on heavier volume. In the last half hour or so about 700,000 shares traded. Just over 1.3M shares traded so far today. 3 month average volume is 766K. Up ~ 6% on the day. Nice to be in ahead of some biggie making a big move.
    26 Dec 2013, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    10 year US treasury yields touched 3% today. Mortgage applications are way down this year. The stock market goes up relentlessly on broad negative guidance from profitable companies.

     

    I can't see a good reason for the stock PEs to keep expanding. Anyone? Secret good news on African or Middle East politics? A world wide outbreak of less government corruption?

     

    I'm just going to sit on my 50% cash position and brood. :</
    26 Dec 2013, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I just got two very odd confirmations that some of the trillions sitting on the sidelines suffering from fierce erosion from inflation and currency wars while earning .0001 pct interest...

     

    Is capitulating.

     

    My mother and brother have contacted me about investing some of their savings where they can earn actual income. Both in the same week!

     

    My mother has the huge bulk of her savings in worthless CDs, while my brother has all of his in an IRA with very high management fees and few investment options. His adviser has succeeded in actually losing money while invested in bonds, net of his own high fees, of course. At no point over the last 20 years has he ever matched the performance of the SP 500...

     

    This is just anecdotal evidence, of course, but the effect of the guvmint's zirp cattle prods seems to finally be taking effect.

     

    The return of the retail herd to the markets, should it occur, will be a game changer. Initially it will be supportive of share prices, but it will also provide the targets needed by the quant monkies and the INs to create conditions for flash crash raids...
    26 Dec 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    Consumer Reports ran an article in August that compared fees for four mutual funds for your 401(k) with identical investment goals. $50k for 20 years. The Vanguard fund was the cheapest at $3531, and the T. Rowe Price fund the highest at $14,529

     

    Being a T. Rowe Price investor, I was curious, so I went to a site that calculates returns. The results were that the T. Rowe Price investor ended up with the best performance using Morningstar rankings. I wrote CU a letter pointing out their deception but they never backtracked.
    26 Dec 2013, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    ungawa: It's all in the metrics used. CU most likely has their own evaluation metrics, developed for them by someone they consider to have no axe to grind.
    26 Dec 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    trip, that is a very scary piece of news. I thought most of the "mom and pop" money in the bond market funds had been flushed out by now, given the screaming bull stock market of the last 13 or so months. If you are right, there will be a further stock upsurge and then blood will flow as the sharks have their way.

     

    But there is nothing that can be done for the market naive. They are dealing with the best liars money can buy.
    26 Dec 2013, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    Metrics? CU only looked at fees, not performance. I guess they assumed that the mutual funds (same goals) they chose perform about the same.

     

    A couple weeks later ABC News did a similar cursory look, and they also only looked at fees.
    26 Dec 2013, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    There are at least 2 main interpretations to put upon incompetent analysis/articles like this:

     

    1. Its a bungled job by a bungler.

     

    2. There is a hidden agenda, and the results are meant to manipulate the reader.

     

    Just a few years back I would have tended toward #1 as the most likely situation, but now I see it as #2...

     

    Agendas and manipulation everywhere. Paranoia? Or realism?

     

    Nothing annoys me so much as a piece of fiction (movie, book, play) where the author conveniently transforms geniuses into idiots whenever it provides a quick and easy way to get to the plot device they want to use at that particular time. Lazy, and bad craft.

     

    It COULD, of course, still be just laziness and bad craftwork creating these odd bits of analysis, but as they become the norm I have shifted my point of view to a much more paranoid and cynical place.
    27 Dec 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    >Trip-

     

    Agree paranoia and cynicism-

     

    By taking that outlook at the outset I am happy revising my thinking to a more positive position if it proves out that I am too circumspect initially.

     

    Guilty until proven innocent is my creed.

     

    I credit Woody Allen for the great comment-

     

    "Even if you are paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get you."

     

    WT
    27 Dec 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (3232) | Send Message
     
    “Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you”
    ― Joseph Heller, Catch-22

     

    Another I like:
    “If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.”
    ― Thomas Pynchon, Gravity's Rainbow
    27 Dec 2013, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    "Just when you think you know the answers, I change the questions!" - Rowdy Roddy Piper

     

    "You're only paranoid until its true." - (I made that one up, I think... quite similar to Heller though)

     

    "The secret to success is honesty and fair dealing, if you can fake those, you've got it made." - Groucho Marx

     

    Back to investing. Feels like a very confident world. I'd gander 2014 or 2015 is our next "Black Swan." Maybe we can have one more gluttonous year before a hiccup in 2015, but I'm not sure. Trip's comments kind of worry me. People jumping into the markets that don't belong in them is often a warning sign to jump out... but with all the printing press money, indicators can lag for a while.
    28 Dec 2013, 03:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    The pump is primed for a large reaction too, exacerbated by margin levels.

     

    http://on.wsj.com/18Huoov

     

    Might be a different sector, but sure looks familiar, no?

     

    HardToLove
    28 Dec 2013, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    HTL: I see the large margin debt as partly the BigBoys preparing to cash out of the market by heavy selling into the bubble the margin debt is helping to create.
    
    When? I'm betting first half of 2014.
    28 Dec 2013, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    SHB: If the "big boyz" determine when they want to move, the real problems are lesser as the effect is really only in the secondary reaction of the poor non-professional folks that get blindsided.

     

    If, however, "big boyz" exit timing is determined by margin calls or other credit distress (higher rates?) creating forced selling, it could get nastier.

     

    I don't think latter is likely as the yield curve is currently steepening, primarily due to 10-year rate, for now.

     

    With Yellen on the way to the chief seat at the Fed I think it would take some exogenous event to force scenario one because short-rates should remain low *unless* the Fed is forced to get more heavily into short-term instruments for some reason. Rotation out of treasuries of all terms to get into MBS instruments might cause it if they do that.

     

    I'm thinking the "big boyz" are not preparing for an exit right now. The Plunge Protection Team is their master and they want the market up. So the "boyz" should obey, using margin.

     

    To me that means an exogenous event is likely the only thing that will make them exit in mass.

     

    Sans that, I think relatively small profit taking raids would be their m.o.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    28 Dec 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I'm sticking to my Sub-Sector Flash Rotation scenario. The tempo has only begun to ramp up on this process...
    28 Dec 2013, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    I'm sticking with about 85% to 95% invested in equities, with, as you know, the lions share invested in high yielders, especially MLPs. (Industrials appear attractive to me right now, and for the long term. Banks, too).

     

    With the FED expected to remain dove-ish and keep rates low, MLPs will be able to borrow on the cheap while they continue to expand. This investing premise has done well for me overall, and I expect this space to continue to thrive and grow for the next several years.

     

    I expect Wall Street to become more and more involved in the MLP space. Institutions will follow the likes of Leon Cooperman and Vanguard, and perhaps outperform the markets "if" the MLP space continues to pay out high yields while seeing price appreciation occur in the shares or units.

     

    By the end of 2015, I expect Breitburn to be double the $20 share price it's at right now. LINE will be a $50 stock (my broker agrees with this forecast). Crazy to think that? Well, Sunoco logistics has more than doubled in the past two years, and Enterprise Transfer Partners has gone up in excess of 50%.

     

    But this, too, is likely cyclical, as potential for MLPs to acquire larger and larger acquisitions will likely dry up.

     

    This has already become evidenced by Buckeye Pipeline acquiring marine storage terminals outside of the US -- to my knowledge, the first MLP to acquire any asset outside of the US (or, Canada?).

     

    With the wide margin between the price of nat gas here in the US, as compared to countries like Japan, it's easy to venture a guess that MLPs will begin to acquire shipping vessels (I think one MLP already has, but I can't recall which one).

     

    Further, global GNP is rising, and I believe will continue to move higher, especially in emerging markets. Just even ten years ago, electricity was unavailable in rural areas in China, South America, Africa, Latin America, Malaysia and elsewhere.

     

    Now electricity has come to these rural regions around the world. Still, likely another billion or more likely far more people are still without electrical power.

     

    As I have read, and been told down in Latin America, when electricity comes to a hinterland village, the first thing electric is a street lamp. The first thing homeowners buy is a small refrigerator, then a TV and then a cell phone.

     

    These were largely detached villages, no road existed, and were comprised of subsistence farming; little money was generated.

     

    But now they are hooked up, and even a small time farmer in western Mongolia now understands the concept of banking, and the Internet.

     

    Just 13 years ago, it was nearly impossible for any rural citizen to become active in any of the global stock exchanges. Now, within a week or so they can set up an account, and become active traders and investors.

     

    So a point I believe never discussed here in QC, is that not only are countries printing money as never before, while also devaluing their currencies, but now another form of support for the markets is coming from a new gigantic middle class emerging globally.

     

    I'm still targeting the DOW to be 29,000 by the end of 2020. Seems unfeasible? Am I way to optimistic? Well, the S&P dropped to 666 in March of 2009, and now is pushing 1850, nearly tripling in under five years.

     

    For the DOW to get to 29,000 by the end of 2020. All that needs to happen in six years, is for the DOW to less than double.
    28 Dec 2013, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    I can't believe how optimistic you have become, but I will agree with you with one addition to your comment.

     

    The dow will probably double, because the S&P is adding faster growing companies such as FB, and APPL a few years ago....so only a few companies have to grow and overweight the averages with them.
    28 Dec 2013, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Another path to 29k DOW would be a rapidly depreciating US$. The traditional view has been that the current economic regulations (FED operating at zirp, enormous government deficits, and debt multiplying like a viral plague) would result in a drastically lower valuation $. Now it seems that a form of temporary antigravity has been invented to sustain various fiat currencies which, by all historic logic, should be self destructing as we speak...

     

    Look for the antigravity to go away, and NOT gradually.

     

    The bump when it finally crashes will establish a new set of historic measuring methods.
    28 Dec 2013, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    we came very close to that in '08, I still say that at some point a global reset will come. Sorta like wiping all debt out. But that is too good to be true.
    So they will write debt down or devalue to the point that it becomes sustainable.
    28 Dec 2013, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Edit: It was Kinder Morgan that just bought two oil tanker companies:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    29 Dec 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1733) | Send Message
     
    9 tankers. Maya, it will be interesting to see if a company with dependable cash flow based on throughput contracts can hustle with the lose-a-million today, make-it-all-back tomorrow shipping crowd!
    30 Dec 2013, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    I think the Jones Act greatly improves the chances for Kinder to succeed with their purchase, Joseph. Though admittedly, I have yet to check to see if these tankers were actually built in the US.

     

    Though there are relatively scads of new ships, global shipping seems to be on the rise.

     

    I'm also guessing that Kinder is being preemptive of when the DOE(?) will soon approve the exportation of natural gas.

     

    All-in-all, I have found the shipping biz tough to figure, but am glad that I now own maybe a quarter of a leg of a bunk in a crew quarters, mate!
    30 Dec 2013, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2743) | Send Message
     
    JS: If the "late entries" stick a toe in the water and the experience is a fast gain in a short time, they are very likely to go "all in" within just a few months, before "something changes". That is a perfect setup for a sharp downturn as the BigBoyz sell into the euphoria.

     

    I can only watch and learn.
    1 Jan 2014, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Joseph: Best article to date I've read that intertwines the benefits of the Jones Act toward US-based shippers, including Kinder's recent purchase of two oil tanker companies:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Note: Exon is now charging a record $100,000/day for a Jones Act compliant tanker. There's a tanker supply shortage going on right now. At present, there are only two shipyards in the US that can build Jones Act compliant tankers.
    2 Jan 2014, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (176) | Send Message
     
    Do you know if these shipyards are traded and worth investigating?
    3 Jan 2014, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Recommend reading The Shipping Man before investing in the shipping industry: http://amzn.to/1f1dUfr

     

    Also may want to check out Clemens Scholl's articles on shipping (he reviewed above book in article as well): http://bit.ly/1f1dUft
    3 Jan 2014, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2710) | Send Message
     
    Agree Jon, excellent book. Well written and the industry details are said to be modeled after John Fredriksen the Norwegian Chairman of Seadrill -- a real "shipping man." I learned a lot of details about how the industry works in practice from that book. Also Clemens is one of the sharpest authors on SA.
    mj
    3 Jan 2014, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (176) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to all. I'll take a look.
    4 Jan 2014, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Macquarie still sees big upside for Mueller Water Products
    Macquarie reiterates an Outperform rating on Mueller Water Products (MWA -0.1%)."We expect accelerating TILE order growth into year-end given recent commentary ... about a snap-back in U.S. office demand post-U.S. government shutdown," analyst Mike Wood says."Positive non-residential growth seen in our proprietary distributor survey over the past few months, will serve as a positive catalyst," Wood adds.Price target is $26 representing upside of ~179% from Wednesday's close
    27 Dec 2013, 05:33 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Identifying the winners in the crony wars is essential to successful investing now.

     

    I have added a "political pull" component to my pre-investment analysis (I have always had this for defense contractors, btw) for ALL stocks.

     

    The categories are "Ins", "Outs", and "Neutrals" (most neutrals may not really BE neutral, but when good data is not available, I toss them in that group). Really, only the "Ins" are worth the bother, regardless of other factors (traditional analysis, charting, business sector, compelling narrative, etc, etc).

     

    Since I no longer do any investing with an horizon beyond about 3-6 months, this meshes well with my new routine.
    27 Dec 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    Re: (TUR) Took a position once again in TUR that is currently trading down 3% @ $45.14. This price is below its holdings value of appx $48.50.

     

    Not for the weak of heart but I could not pass up the opportunity.

     

    Be careful out there!

     

    WT
    27 Dec 2013, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    (LINE): I was watching selling into a rising price today and wondering who ...

     

    Answer: http://bit.ly/lZsZ6X

     

    I wonder if we'll see a short squeeze after the new year starts because these jokers have been increasing their short position,

     

    My $30 and $31 blocks of calls for April are looking like a decent bet right now,

     

    Volume is decent today so far.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Dec 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    (LINE): Closed bove the 200-day SMA of $30.51 and barely below a short-term descending resistance ~$30.65. Volume down a bit from yesterday, ~1.962MM vs. today's ~1.682MM, barely below the 10-day avg. of ~2.41MM - stiil decent volume and, I think, suggestive of bullish sentiment.

     

    Higher low and higher high.

     

    Need another day for confirmation of a possible leg up beginning.

     

    Next pause would be ~$31 and ~$31.50 (tops of recent churn), ~$31.75 (bottom of gap filled but a pause point possible) and ~$32.10-$32.20.

     

    Longer-term descending resistance currently ~$32 if that's in play.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Dec 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    RE: (LINE) Shorts-

     

    Thanks for the info HTL - Too bad we can't get a look on a market live basis.

     

    Agree on the Calls -

     

    WT
    27 Dec 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Note my comment earlier in the week that I anticipated LINE closing above the 200 day SMA. A rare example of me predicting (accurately) a charting event...

     

    Perhaps I should buy a lottery ticket, too.
    27 Dec 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    TB: I'll go halfies w/you! With your acumen, risk/reward seems favorable!

     

    HardToLove
    27 Dec 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    I have another stock idea to bounce off u guys...

     

    Target just had that big data breach, related to the virus being in the machine that you swipe your card thru at checkout.

     

    If credit and debit cards had the "chip" imbedded in them, this would not have happened...

     

    so my idea is research the companies who make those cards with a chip and the new software/hardware that banks and retail outlets have to have to use it. There is better than 50/50 chance that this starts being used.
    There was an article that stated that banks write off $11 Billion / year in stolen card id's.....so this may be the trigger to force the upgrade.
    27 Dec 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure that its "better" to have viruses which can invade individual store checkouts vs individual credit cards themselves...

     

    I would think that the liability in the first case is clearly with the store and its bankers, whereas the liability should your card be infected might well be with you, personally. The existing banking regulations regarding capping credit card liability have always allowed for $50, which was reasonable, but what if you had 100 such charges due to your card catching a digital SDS?

     

    Before I am comfortable with the new tech, I'd like to see the new banking regulations.
    27 Dec 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2710) | Send Message
     
    LT,

     

    Apparently some folks are thinking along similar lines by plowing into (CUDA) which was up 20% today:

     

    SA Breaking News 12/27:
    Barracuda Networks climbs 20% on positive CNBC mention

     

    Barracuda Networks (CUDA +19.9%) shares climb after BMO's Joel Fishbein lauds the name on CNBC, saying Barracuda possesses "next generation technology ... that goes from protecting the endpoints to protecting the data no matter where it is and that's what corporations need to do such as Target."
    mj
    27 Dec 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    >MJ

     

    (CUDA) took off like a bird on fire! I should have been paying attention!

     

    <sigh>

     

    WT
    30 Dec 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2710) | Send Message
     
    Yes WT - it's been a good quick scalp. I always get nervous sitting on good gains when the moves are indeed like "a bird on fire." I've become more proficient using Active Trader Pro's filter screens, so I'll post as I see other interesting "birds."

     

    mj
    30 Dec 2013, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    >MJ-
    Thanks!
    Appreciate the info.

     

    WT
    30 Dec 2013, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    LT: Thanks for jogging my memory. A long while back I became intrigued by a company named Elephant Talk; a smart phone security payment system. (Another one of those stocks I was waaaay too early on) ETAK has revenues ramping nicely, with some long term agreements in Europe and Mexico, but may still need to do a cap raise in 2014.

     

    Here's a pretty good Dec. 6 article about ETAK. This company has screaming high potential, if/when banks, VISA, Master Charge and Paypal adopt smart phone payment applications.

     

    http://bit.ly/1ilz08R

     

    (Only a couple of well-informed comments...that I suggest for you to read)

     

    ETAK has had a bit of a run lately; is breaking out to the upside. Back on my watch list this one goes, as ETAK is a good candidate to double in 2014. I also recall from a few years ago that ETAK did some kind of test involving millions? of transactions somewhere in Europe, and IIRC, they were in excess of 99% secure.

     

    Thanks again!
    27 Dec 2013, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    I know u don't like Cramer, but as a follow up to what may happen in '14 ... this is a good read. It is a 3 part deal so read it all. I happen to agree with most of it, but the usual caveat, he will be right on some & wrong on others. But overall it could be close.

     

    Cramer's 2014 breakdown on the Dow 30

     

    http://bit.ly/1hLrm4X
    28 Dec 2013, 06:06 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    IMO, we may have seen the beginning of a pullback begin Friday...

     

    Twitter dn $10
    NVAX dn, and weak (see HTL's note in the Med blog)
    FB dn
    APPL dn

     

    Im not calling a crash, just something to watch. Check your watch lists.
    28 Dec 2013, 06:22 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    With tax loss selling still happening, its hard to track the situation right now.

     

    January should bring some clarity...
    28 Dec 2013, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2710) | Send Message
     
    On a lighter note -- Bitcoin stash at FBI may fund US deficit ... or may be untouchable? under US forfeiture laws ... and more:
    http://bit.ly/1jZkTI4
    mj
    30 Dec 2013, 05:26 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Bitcoin is the perfect metaphor for the reality of our times, except it is real too.
    30 Dec 2013, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Good one, Jon!

     

    Bitcoins were recently "restricted" in China:

     

    http://dthin.gs/1eR6Im0
    30 Dec 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Vietnam's Stock Market Year In Review, Bull Market Ahead http://onforb.es/1cgypQY

     

    First of a 2 or 3 part interview with Dragon Capital, largest private shareholder in Vietnam.

     

    Vietnam can be traded with (VNM) and (OTC:VCVOF) in the U.S. or in London with VOF.L, VNH.L and VNF.L. Should be noted that VCVOF is the U.S. trading vehicle for VOF.L.
    30 Dec 2013, 07:36 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1733) | Send Message
     
    Jon, if you ask for a quote on VNM on Yahoo Finance, yours is the first article to appear under "Headlines." Nice...
    30 Dec 2013, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    31 Dec 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Thanks RBF. I know he's one of the few people on SA who cover Vietnam and made him aware of my recent articles; and that VCVOF had zero articles about it on SA at the time I wrote him.

     

    I *might* have an article on SA next week about VNM vs. VCVOF.

     

    Upon the advice of Ms. Manners, no further comment.
    1 Jan 2014, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4175) | Send Message
     
    >Jon-

     

    I got a notice from Forbes that my comment on your article was "called out"

     

    I hope this is a good thing?

     

    WT
    30 Dec 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I'm told it is. I was given notice today that I should "call out" more comments as a way of recognizing readers who make good comments. I had no idea I needed to call you previously, but now I've called you, and what's done is done, so there.

     

    LOL

     

    ... in all honestly, still learning a lot of new stuff. I'm still waiting to hear about some style/format mistake. I've only really learned one piece of Forbes style so far: no commas before the word and. Actually, quite a hard lesson to learn as I've always been a believer in commas before , and.
    30 Dec 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Jon: I had always thought that a comma before "and" is properly written English, when a sentence contains two subjects.

     

    For instance: Jon and Bill went to the park, ate hot dogs, played on the seesaw and the jungle gym, and then went back to Bill's home to kill stink bugs.

     

    Who am I to disagree with Forbes editors? May have to break out the Chicago Manual Of Style (which I once studied cover to cover). But not using a comma before "and," would, in some cases, lead to run on sentences, and that's something I excel at.
    30 Dec 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Commas before the word "and" or "or" are called "Serial commas" or "Oxford commas" I never knew.
    30 Dec 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Vampire Weekend chimes in about Oxford commas.

     

    http://bit.ly/19zIKKh

     

    Lyrics:
    http://bit.ly/19zIKKi
    31 Dec 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Love it !
    1 Jan 2014, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3699) | Send Message
     
    Hi Jon,
    Does this mean that Forbes is a serial (comma) killer?
    30 Dec 2013, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    *pull self off floor after falling there while laughing.
    30 Dec 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3362) | Send Message
     
    Happy (just in case ) New Year to all.

     

    Just in Case I'm not on this year.

     

    HTL: some insider buying in AXIH
    30 Dec 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Freya! Hoping you have a safe and enjoyable New Year too!

     

    And all the folks here!

     

    EDIT: BTW, "AXION Receives $925,000 Order for 100% Composite ECOTRAX® Rail Ties"

     

    http://prn.to/1k1l2uw

     

    HardToLove
    30 Dec 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Happy New Year Freya! Happy New Year everyone.
    30 Dec 2013, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Happy New Year to Freya and everyone !
    30 Dec 2013, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3699) | Send Message
     
    Happy New Year all.
    31 Dec 2013, 03:50 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    JP Morgan turns bullish on gold.

     

    A Mayascribe fav, New Gold (NGD), the consensus target for share price appreciation is 65% during 2014.

     

    Other well known miners recommended:

     

    http://bit.ly/19mGx4M

     

    But still...

     

    --In contrast, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse are all predicting a lower average price of gold and silver in 2014, so the call is a bit of a surprise.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    30 Dec 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    if I had my guess, JPM is trying to unload short position in all commodities, especially silver....
    30 Dec 2013, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    I agree. I don't trust what any of these institutions have to say, but the JP Morgan call is most unusual and counter to its peers; that's why I posted the link(s).
    30 Dec 2013, 06:27 PM Reply Like