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  • QuickChat #222, January 26, 2012 169 comments
    Jan 26, 2012 10:09 AM

    "Minstrel" by stan bruns
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Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

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  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5512) | Send Message
     
    I am going to start this new one off with my opinion on markets near term.

     

    Dow at 12819 now, I think we test 13000 and then correct. We have had a great run, earnings are good, Fed confirmed lower interest rates another year. CEO's cheered the Fed move (see CNBC website, front page)... Looks like Greece gets a deal after the Fed held low rates. I speculate that was what bond holders were waiting for. Market has all the good news it can handle.

     

    Now you guys take it and run with it...just IMO anyway.

     

    Disclaimer: I sold CHK at end of day yesterday for a small loss (.30/shr.), but felt like a winner after such a drop after I first bought it.
    26 Jan 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I believe CHK to be a good long play....they are making moves that should pay nicely in a couple of years. JMHO
    26 Jan 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >RainH2O ... My opinion on NatGas, buy the liquids for export. Compnaies like (LNG), (EPD) and whoever is tool pushing. A better longterm play than (WPRT) & (CLNE). Short term (less than a year) the exact opposite for election plays before everyone loses interest.
    26 Jan 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8636) | Send Message
     
    Japanese are the first to raise the debt to the Quadrillions. We are now going to pass the trillions. I think there will celebrate with the bronzing of a printing press. Ben is reportedly going to be the guest speaker.

     

    http://bit.ly/yvavCd
    26 Jan 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    How was your trip? What did you hear about radiation?
    26 Jan 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8636) | Send Message
     
    We had radiation up in the mountains and sproadically in other places. The level was 1-2 chirps on the nukalert and it would last for only a few minutes at a time. It gave a single chirp nearly the whole 1 hour drive to the hiroshima air port when we left kudamatsu.. One chirp is a level that causes radiation sickness if subjected to it 24/7 in about 42 days. Half that for 2 chirps and keep halving it for each additional chirp after that.

     

    I got no chirps in Tokyo changing airports with a one hour dirve on a bus between the airports. That rather surprised me but the bus might offer some protection since the windows were not down or there just was not any there. I have no idea. I left the nukalert in japan with a hunting friend so I have no return trip info to provide.

     

    Overall it was rather disturbing that radiation is being detected over 700 miles from Fukushima.

     

    I notice some comments I made earlier about the solar storm have been removed. Is SA still at it?
    26 Jan 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8636) | Send Message
     
    An article by JS Kim on gold and silver. I think there is a lot of good info here and suggest you post to favs for future reference.

     

    http://bit.ly/A5nm4Q
    26 Jan 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6190) | Send Message
     
    The Minstrel artwork is wonderful!
    26 Jan 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10503) | Send Message
     
    Ditto. I want one!
    26 Jan 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Its a portrait of a famous German guitarist (his 12 string work is a wonder) who travels the American renaissance festival circuit with his wife (she makes leather shoes and boots, I own a pair, they weigh nothing and fit like your skin). I believe they spend the rest of the year in Germany.

     

    When he's roaming the faire he plays several instruments, but this alto bazooki is a favorite. This is pretty much how he really looks, including his costume, so unlike many of my fantasy creations, this one is based upon a real image. I sketched him at a renfaire a few years ago, when he was kind enough to stand and play music outside my booth. He can play for hours from memorized work. His name is Klaus Weiland and he has a website at http://bit.ly/zvPqFL.
    26 Jan 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    TB this print is a beauty!
    We really didn't discuss what the Fed did. So, I give you Peter Schiff, who splains it all and confirms why precious metals jumped on the news. http://bit.ly/pY3R8e
    We have had what, three years of 0% interest rates? And now the Fed promised more of the same for the next 24+ months (2012, 2013 into 2014). That's unprecedented.
    26 Jan 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I have read opinions that gold and silver shouldnt be going up on news as Fed is limiting inflation target (to 2%) and that should limit gold and silver appreciation.

     

    I have heard just about every opinion possible about current overall stock market

     

    Some say overall market now overbought

     

    Some say most undervalued since 1990

     

    Market has been on clear upward trajectory

     

    Market paused today after digestion of lots of good news here and abroad

     

    I am having a hard time finding good values after this run-up and I am still heavy cash

     

    Here is one opinion on overbought market from SA below:

     

    http://bit.ly/yHQweN

     

    SO, I am a bit rudderless right now and will look to you guys for direction/opinions:

     

    1) What are entry options for times like these?

     

    2) What effect will yesterdays moves have on markets next month or so

     

    3) Is EZ as a market concern dead/dying or about to rear it's ugly head?

     

    I could really use some help as I traded when I should have held in December and now find myself in ugly territory with a market which I am having a hard time believing in but continue to miss opps. One of the most reliable predictors/indicators just said buy but I see a market which may have run up too high ignoring some harsh realities. I have not been impressed with earnings...and fail to believe that, all of a sudden the market should be on par with last WInter/Spring highs.

     

    Feel like I need to get some more cash in but timing is not optimal

     

    Are you guys buying individual stocks on technicals? Would you buy whole market? What are cash positions? Somebody please help a brotha out.........Thanks!
    26 Jan 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    OK, let's discuss inflation. The average rate for 2011 was over 3.% ( much higher depending on the statistics you use.)
    Fed wants 2%. That means they are missing (already), it is too high. Can they get it down to 2%? Will it result in deflation?
    They are using the same tool: low interest rate of .25%.
    If that worked, would they have to extend it for another 2-3 years?

     

    Yeah, buy some miners. Hold your nose and buy. Get some that pay dividends. Then, sell some options against your position so you can hold it without flinching.
    26 Jan 2012, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5512) | Send Message
     
    Very good strategy OG. I like selling the calls along with it. What's your thoughts on purchasing physical PM's?
    26 Jan 2012, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    It makes sense.
    26 Jan 2012, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Sry guys...that may be too much info. I am basically just frustrated that I got caught mostly out of this run-up. Having a hard time finding attractive entries. Any suggestions?
    26 Jan 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8636) | Send Message
     
    I was thinking of shorting things but now if they (US and EZ) continue to put liquidity into the market that would mean PM up and stocks up. Crazy!!!

     

    There is no predictions that are safe because manipulation/canx of manipulation of the markets can not be predicted.

     

    Roulette anyone. I think PMs are still the way to go for the long run but it could be ugly in the middle at times. If you get underwater hold on and dont panic, not easy at times I know.

     

    I also think vix is a good bet under 20.
    26 Jan 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Agreed DG. I'm holding for VIX = $18, but having to be very patient. I'll likely cave before it happens, but that's my target.
    27 Jan 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5512) | Send Message
     
    I think now that you have to keep skin in the game, but stocks are high now. That's why I started off with this new pages first post on what everyone thought.
    I keep CVX, XOM, SO, AEP, AXPW .... have sold everything else. I think having some cash for a while is wise. maybe 50/50 stocks vs. cash...I have learned that dry powder to use on a rainy day is very valuable at times.
    As far as missing this rally & the Central banks...."Never bet against the Fed" much less all the worlds central banks working in tandem with each other. (ex.- US keeping interest rates low another 2 years, and in hours the individual bond holders agree to Greece's coupon at 3.75%-where they were saying 4% or default.)
    26 Jan 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    I read that Eric Sprott, in an interview, stated that Hong Kong sales of gold have been averaging 102 tons per month to China. Total production is around 200 ton a month. He believes that gold prices will increase just because China is on a big buying spree. (For some perspective, 1 metric tonne = 32150.746 Troy ounces).
    http://bit.ly/wT47nG
    26 Jan 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Thanks a bunch! Much appreciated at a frustrating time....
    I had all the right moves in Dec...but couldn't take my eyes off Europe and played things too close to the vest. Appreciate the thoughts and opinions.
    26 Jan 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5512) | Send Message
     
    Maya...you mentioned MCP-a preferreds. Let me be sure I am right as I had them on my watch list already. I think the gov't will see that they survive.

     

    1. They are 5.5% (but now purchasing them at $68 would = 8% yield)
    2. Par is $100 - right?
    3. They just traded in the 50's in the last few weeks?

     

    Anyone else have any comments on them?
    26 Jan 2012, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10503) | Send Message
     
    LT: You have the facts right, effective yield a tad over 8%, and par is $100. MPC-A also topped out at I believe $149.

     

    My shares are at $78 per. Robert's and Trip's even less. Our pal Joseph Sheaffer wrote an article about Moly convertible preferred. But the true hat tip has to go to my broker, who was first to notice the high disparity to par, which eventually led Joseph to write his fine piece.
    26 Jan 2012, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Reposting a message I received from SA earlier today:

     

    Greetings! I hope all is well.

     

    As I hinted at earlier this week, early Friday morning (Jan. 27) we'll be migrating our servers to a new hosting company. This is exciting news for Seeking Alpha and our contributors! Tomorrow's migration promises to put an end to our frequent site outages (keep your fingers crossed), and positions us for healthy growth in the coming years. Our new web hosting company has a stellar track record and reputation, and has promised us 99.99% uptime.

     

    The "cutover" will take place Friday morning at approximately 1:00 AM ET. Our hope is that the entire migration will take less than 1/2 hour, and that by the time most of you wake up Friday morning, we will be running off our new servers.

     

    However, server migrations for a site the size of Seeking Alpha are complex, and there is the possibility that the site may be down for a number of hours. If for any reason we are unable to take the new servers live by approximately 8:30 AM ET, we will fall back to our legacy servers and try again over the weekend. If this occurs, we will update you as to the status and potential pockets of downtime over the weekend. If you don't hear from us, it's safe to assume that everything has gone as planned.

     

    Note that even if things do go according to schedule, there may be anomalies in page-view tallies for articles for the remainder of the day. Please don't worry. It's just the new servers getting up to speed. No page-views or any other information will be lost, and by the end of the day, all information should be current and accurate.

     

    Wish us luck!
    Yosef
    --
    Yosef Levenstein
    Director of Contributor Development
    Seeking Alpha
    26 Jan 2012, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10503) | Send Message
     
    Jon: Excellent. Further confirms what David Jackson wrote to me. Looking forward to things speeding up.
    26 Jan 2012, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, but I copied 7 drafts of articles and blogs I'm working on into a word document back-up just in case something gets lost in the migration.
    26 Jan 2012, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Update from SA:

     

    "Greetings! I hope all is well.

     

    We were unable to begin the cutover this morning and have postponed it until Sat. afternoon (Jan. 28) at approximately 1:00 PM ET. Everything discussed in yesterday's email (potential downtime, possible anomalies in page-view statistics, etc.) now applies to the new time window.

     

    Our apologies, and thanks for your understanding.

     

    Regards,
    Yosef
    --
    Yosef Levenstein
    Director of Contributor Development
    Seeking Alpha"
    27 Jan 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Thoughts from Capitalist Exploits’ Mark Wallace on investing in Frontier Markets: http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Capitalist Exploits is a free site with a lot of cool data, particularly for those interested in emerging and frontier markets: http://bit.ly/xLJPB4
    26 Jan 2012, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5512) | Send Message
     
    JPM downgrades CHK ... possible under $15 ... odd with the gov't backing NG & LNG exports coming soon.

     

    http://bit.ly/xJ7deO
    27 Jan 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Since I always invert JPM (and all the other major fund pundits) analist projections at times like this, it makes perfect sense... Simply assume they are NOT objective observers, but insider participants with a strong profit motivation, and voila!
    27 Jan 2012, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Europe is looking very "Fridayish". Flat and slightly down until 2pm, and then the bottom drops and the short cycle guys cash in and start their weekend.

     

    Barring events, I would expect the same thing here.
    27 Jan 2012, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    Santelli just presented that the new debt ceiling is $52K+ for every man, woman, child in the U.S.

     

    I think that's above annual average income?

     

    HardToLove
    27 Jan 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Marco G on 14 silver stocks http://seekingalpha.co...
    27 Jan 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    "What is currency? It's paper"-- Frank Buckley, Ireland
    http://yhoo.it/zfbvhz
    28 Jan 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6190) | Send Message
     
    My kind of kids!
    http://tinyurl.com/7by...

     

    Never under estimate what kids can do.
    28 Jan 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Mad Hedge Fund Trader notes as he posts a bunch of stuff which kindly disrupts me from focusing on work, laundry and other neuroses:

     

    - Makes the case for going long the VIX http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    - Theorizes that international savings rates are an indicator to follow to find strong economies for the future http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    - Believes we're closer to the top of this move than the bottom with a target peak of 1345 on the S&P http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    - Davos tickets $71,000; Davos with discussion groups $165,000; Davos all access $527,000. http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    - MHFT's quotes of the day:

     

    1) "Steve Jobs offered me one third of Apple for $50,000 and I was so smart that I turned it down. It's funny when you think about it now, except when I'm crying," said Nolan Bushnell, the founder of game company Atari and Jobs' first employer.

     

    2) "Apple will never be a consumer products company," said John Sculley, the Apple CEO who fired Steve Jobs in 1985. Today Apple is the world's largest and most profitable consumer products company
    29 Jan 2012, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    hindsight sucks. Had around 10k shares of apple in 2002. Sold them on a small move of the stock of around 25 cents.
    29 Jan 2012, 10:39 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1617) | Send Message
     
    Those were a couple of thought-provoking articles, Jon -- though I must disagree (as I often do with MHFT!) that a country's savings rate says anything about its stock market. (MHFT: "Don't expect a runaway bull market anywhere savings rates are low and falling. What are savings rates telling us are the best countries in which to invest? China, 38%, India, 34.7%, and Turkey, 19.5%.")

     

    There are scores of reasons why a populace may save besides panting breathlessly to play the stock market with those funds. One or two that come to mind for, say, China, India and Turkey are the lack of a pension safety net for old age, a desire to buy a car or a home, and a cushion against government confiscation of recorded assets.

     

    In fact as I review his list... My comments are next to each country.

     

    Australia 2.5% -- I love it. Low population, hi natural resources, etc. I'm a buyer.
    Japan 2.8% -- Cheap cheap cheap. And with some of the world's most innovative companies. They are buys for me.
    USA 3.9% -- Never count the USA out. We do some incredibly stupid things, especially at the polling booth. But we are a nation of entrepreneurs. We even pay our fair share of taxes until the govt gets too greedy.
    Brazil 6.8% -- Excellent choice. Even with the corruption and nepotism which holds it back.
    Britain 7.0% -- Some fine companies here
    Germany 11.7% -- Ditto / we own lots of them
    Ireland 12.3% -- By MHFT's logic, this should perform better than Germany. Not this decade...
    Switzerland 14.3% -- Agree. Lots of great companies cheap as they are incorrectly tarred with the Euro brush
    Turkey 19.5% -- I'd squirrel money away if I lived here, too. I'll be there this spring and see which way the wind is blowing
    India 34.7% -- One of the worst markets in 2011, when they saved just as much
    China 38% -- Ditto

     

    Looks like we'll have to keep searching for the Holy Grail of investing (or just slog it out in the trenches, the way Jon, TB, OG and all the other sharp Gades too numerous to mention do it!)
    30 Jan 2012, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5512) | Send Message
     
    "Portugal not Greece to bring Euro down".... and the Germans are asking for control of the Greece economy thru veto power over the budget. "BBC says Merkel says Greece will default".
    http://bit.ly/w0Vfaf
    http://bit.ly/yohMLV
    http://bit.ly/xAk2Hr
    Now that everyone is hedged, markets have priced in a Greek default the Germans come up with another quirk to delay funding, I think they want Greece to default and see what happens.
    But, IF Greece defaults then Portugal goes into the same situation before the ink dries on Greece, and the end much faster than Greece.
    This is why the Deutsch bank CEO said they are playing with fire, contagion could spiral out of control.
    The entire euro-zone including France & Germany might as well just default at once.
    30 Jan 2012, 04:34 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5512) | Send Message
     
    Will the Euro Survive? Central Bankers Say Yes, for Now ... this is a must read.
    http://bit.ly/z9Ufiy
    30 Jan 2012, 04:45 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5512) | Send Message
     
    Banks Fight to Exempt Half of Swaps Books (IMO these things need to go...they are just too big)

     

    "The five banks control 95 percent of cash and derivatives trading for U.S. bank holding companies, which had $326 trillion in notional derivatives as of Sept. 30, the agency said."

     

    http://bloom.bg/zo7zOg

     

    Sarkozy, OWS & Unions call for financial tax

     

    http://bloom.bg/xgXdRm
    http://bloom.bg/yXXAe9
    30 Jan 2012, 05:18 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    LT: Those are valuable links. I think FPA would be interested in having them in his Stability of the Euro blog too.

     

    http://bit.ly/yVPAgO

     

    Thanks for posting them. I've got a whole "Financial Doom" folder devoted to the Eurozone. Needless to say, your links are getting added.

     

    Thanks!

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan 2012, 06:14 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5512) | Send Message
     
    I'm going to give you one more hint too....

     

    Buried in one of Bloomberg's articles that I couldn't find when I went back to post it is on DAVOS and in the ECB or ERF funding is that $20 billion is earmarked to employ the "YOUNG PEOPLE". Why do I see this as HUGE?

     

    I think the "Occupy Wall St / Occupy the World" has scared the big boys more than we know....they are trying to keep it quiet, but these are mostly young people who are well educated and know how to use the power of the internet effectively. Examples:
    1. BAC $5 débit card fees...went down fast...BAC admits to losing customers almost overnight.
    2. They are going to be a force in voting soon.
    3. A side effect of austerity is Civil Unrest, and OWS groups are showing up globally. They need to put these guys to work fast and get them off the street. They bring too much attention to these under the table/ behind closed door deals to the media forefront.

     

    I am not promoting or demoting OWS, I am saying tho, that if they had leadership and direction they could make a huge impact on the crooked lobbying, laws, regulations and political and corporate leadership in the entire world. The top 1% is sweating ... they are just hiding it for now. I would not be surprised if this is not the factor behind the big jump in employment the last two months.
    30 Jan 2012, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    The top 1% is behind OWS. George, Soros does an interview stating that civil unrest will become more prevalent and give police forces an excuse for using force to break the movement. Sure enough three days later riots erupt with OWS Oak Land at the epicenter. This fabricated movement is funded by an assortment of leftist groups from the SEIU to Moveon. Another means of exerting political influence in order to concentrate more wealth in the hands of the Uber rich like Buffet and Soros. In order for the plan to work they need Obama in office for at least another four years.
    30 Jan 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >robert b. ferguson ... That is just plain ridiculous tripe.
    30 Jan 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    DRich: Greetings. Save your breath and your time there is too much compelling evidence that what I said is the unvarnished truth. http://bit.ly/z2Zdy9 There is allot of money involved in this and it's not just here in the USof A.
    http://bit.ly/AsXZIU In fact while many of the young protestors have no idea of what they are involved in there are many more who are fully aware and there are professional agitators involved as well. Care to reconsider what is and isn't tripe?
    http://fxn.ws/y1JaJ9
    30 Jan 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >robert b. ferguson ... NO! Your free to believe whatever but to tell me that OWS & the top 1% are teaming up is just crazy, but I can believe it is "the unvarnished truth" as FOX might see it.
    30 Jan 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Maybe I'm just sick and groggy (I am), but to me, OWS and the Tea Party are the same statement: people are tired of Washington getting nothing done to fix problems that have been known about for years, and sometimes decades. The economy stinks, people protest. People with money who think one group or another has a good solution throw money at them, but the wealthy (whether supporting OWS or the Tea Party) are not going to sully themselves in the street holding signs in the rain - its just a game for them, and a game that both sides want to see them ultimately removed from...

     

    The fact is, as things get worse, we are more likely to vote for people of extreme views who vehemently echo our most emotional views and will staunchly defend those views. Unfortunately, what we need is people who: have a spine, are sincere in their views, and recognize that dialogue followed by reasonable negotiations is necessary to solve our very large problems.

     

    I appreciate that everyone has been uppity and busy emotionally yelling at each other about the "right way" and what the country stands for since 9/11. However, if we cannot listen to one another and find our commonalities, and find solutions, we will continue in this absurd stand-off of polemical nonsense that gets nothing done.

     

    As this comedian points out in a 10 minute talk: "Listening is the willingness to change." Listening does not mean you must change, but if you are unwilling to change when you listen, then you're not listening at all, are you?

     

    LINK: http://bit.ly/wkxBaH
    30 Jan 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    DRich: Greetings. You are free to ignore the truth if you wish but don't expect the rest of us to follow your example. If your purpose here is to disseminate false information I suggest you look for a less sophisticated group to deceive. You may have noticed that we are serious investors well capable of doing research on any topic. I provided just a small sample of what is available. Didn't you stop to wonder why there are so many union people and signs at the OWS locations. Didn't it occur to you that the Democrat power structure had a hand in creating the movement? Why else would they have initially endorsed such a movement that was defecating on police cars and using racial/antisemitic slurs at every location. Use you head. You don't have to believe me just follow the money and it's all very clear. Quit being a drone and do your own DD.
    30 Jan 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Jon, Springer: Greetings. While I agree that the OWS and TEA party movements represent two sides of the same coin there are inherent differences. TEA Party activists in most instances have money of their own which they are willing to expend for political capital whereas the OWS is externally funded and their political capital comes from civil disobedience. The TEA Party movement has a coherent message and a cohesive self sustaining grass roots direction whereas the OWS protestors don't. Without external funding they would cease to exist in short order. While both movements want to exert their political influence they have fundamentally opposed agendas. OWS wants nanny state big government solutions the TEA party wants far less government intrusion and practical common sense solutions at the lowest level possible. As I said major fundamental differences in outlook and agenda.
    30 Jan 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >rbf ... I would say the same for your opinion. I don't see how this looney-tunes view has anything at all to do with serious investing. I do a lot of DD and not just look at what I already agree with. The OWS & Tea Party movements, at the grassroots, have a lot in common and if they ever quit looking at the commoners as "the enemy" we might see some progress. There is a lot of money spent to see that doesn't happen and a lot of people willing to believe what the propaganda tells them. I still don't understand what it has to do with "serious investing".
    30 Jan 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    DRich: Greetings. The solutions arrived at will have consequences in our investment environment. If you choose to ignore information you do so at your peril. Soros, Buffet and their ilk are not your friends. In fact they are behind some of the legislation designed to part the middle income group from their assets, the death tax being a prevalent example. Socialism and capitalism cannot coexist in case you were under the impression they could. OWS is a socialist movement while the TEA Party movement is not. Do you have a better understanding now. My opinion is backed by research while yours is not. Can you see the difference? Provide us with the benefit of your research, your links and make sure they are independently verifiable by other sources as most posts here are.
    30 Jan 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    With all due respect, if you cannot see how many common threads there are between OWS and the TEA party, then you are not listening to one, or not listening to the other, or listening to neither.

     

    "Listening is the willingness to change."

     

    If we wish to go down the road of emotional polemical arguments that wind us up in Mexican stand-offs that change nothing, we can continue down the road we are on. To change the systemic problems, including the problem of who get elected, and the effectiveness of lobbyists upon them, requires groups from left and right to come together and demand things improve jointly. Short of that, the nonsense will continue unabated until disaster forces the change others did not have the will to bring, because their pride in their personal views was more important to them than the future of their nation (all the while claiming they were the only ones that cared about the future of the nation and its the "other peoples" fault).

     

    I now return to my usual apolitical investing regularly scheduled program for this space.
    30 Jan 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >robert b. ferguson .... I'm aware that Soros, Buffet, et al are not my friends. Were you aware that the Koch bros., Murdoch, Dimon, McConnell aren't yours either. I've no interest in debating you.
    30 Jan 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    I don't side with them either. Accusations linking them with TEA Party activism are greatly exaggerated. They are creatures of the establishment on the right and operate in a fundamentally different manner than the TEA Party. They are just as dangerous as their counterparts on the left. If you have no interest in debating issues I suggest you refrain from making indefensible largely unsubstantiated statements. When any of us imparts questionable information to the group it's incumbent upon all of us to make corrections and ensure that our information is accurate and relevant. Anything less is a disservice to the group as a whole. I'm not always correct and have been corrected by others here with no ill will. Just the facts.
    30 Jan 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    Well said Jon S...LINK excellent as well!
    30 Jan 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    Jon S...I guess he said "No"...
    "You are free to ignore the truth if you wish ..."...rbf is definitely NOT listening...
    30 Jan 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    magounsq: Greetings. Just what makes you think that I'm not listening? I'm listening but I understand that the utterance of something does not make it true, accurate or beneficial. What are you basing your opinion on? I've been posting here for a very long time and have earned a reputation for honesty, integrity, cooperation and thorough research. Knee jerk reactions and disinformation are rarely any of the above. If you think I'm being disingenuous your welcome to prove the allegation. Your also welcome to disprove that OWS is externally funded and backed by leftist groups and assorted nut cases like the KKK http://bit.ly/AsmWZj. Go ahead post your research. If you have none just say so.
    30 Jan 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Here is the link to the story http://bit.ly/ztqjON. I'm fairly sure the "Daily Beast." does not share the world view with fox news. I'm sure that the Oak Land thing was just a coincidence http://bit.ly/zicCuu much like the collapse of the British Pound in 1992. Go ahead and tell yourself that it can't happen here.
    30 Jan 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2811) | Send Message
     
    Kinda reminds me of the sophisticated world view as once expressed by some redneck who drew a clear line in the sand as a means to distinguish between a drunk and an alcoholic.
    According to this particular deep thinker, an alcoholic could hold his head high because he could afford to buy his own booze with his own money, whereas the common drunk deserved no respect because he sponged off of someone else to support his bad habits.
    So OWS and TP both drank the Koolaid, but since TP paid their own Bar Tab, that somehow makes them smart Koolaid drinkers. NOT.
    30 Jan 2012, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (839) | Send Message
     
    Sorry Robert, reading Fox News and Bircher websites does not qualify as research; but I'm glad you find the kool aid tasty.
    31 Jan 2012, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Alcoholics go to meetings. Drunks don't. What an inane argument.
    31 Jan 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2811) | Send Message
     
    Exactly, a distinction without a difference.
    31 Jan 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    jpau: Greetings. Have you got information to the contrary? I'd love to see anything disproving the information I've linked. Either you have such or you don't. It really is that simple. What is your working theory? Since you refuse to believe coroberating sources with opposing world views just what would you believe. I'm not drinking anyone's Kool-Aid but I'm not going through life as a drone or wearing blinders either. Post your research. Enlighten us all as to what your basing your strategies on. If you believe that none of this is pertinent to investment strategies post that and explain why. Your accusing me of biases that simply don't exist. I'm not an ideologue or a shill for any party, candidate, company or stock. Can you say the same? Just the facts as best as you can substantiate them with your research. If your opinions can't be substantiated with adequate research then you have no facts. Just opinions and we all know about those now don't we.
    31 Jan 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2811) | Send Message
     
    Nice links Robert. After Bernake, Soros's views are perhaps the best barometer of future trends regardless of one's opinions of the facts. Regarding your idea that the fringe right is just as dangerous as the looney left, I would posit that the right is the truly dangerous one, the left is merely a disgusting inconvenience. The historical evidence for this conclusion is the proven necessity to select the lesser evil as embodied by Stalinist Russia as our partner in crime as a means ensure defeat of Fascist Germany. People on food stamps don't blow anybody but themselves up.
    31 Jan 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Economic, Analyst: Greetings. Those who were killed by leftists are just as dead as those killed by anyone else. All who would subjugate others limiting their individual liberty, right to accumulate property for themselves and their posterity, or attempt to control every facet of their lives are equally evil. Desperate people do desperate things. Perhaps you should ask the Mayor of Oak Land about the damage inflicted on her city by OWS or the Mayor of Milwaukee about the damage inflicted on his city by leftists opposing Governor walker. I don't seem to recall any violence, pestilence or arrests of any TEA Party activists at any of their rallies. Spare me the unsubstantiated accusations of extreme behavior by them as well. There was never any evidence video or audio to support them. I've searched for it and there was a reward offered for it which to this day has not been collected. As for Soros it's quite likely he is orchestrating events rather than predicting them.
    31 Jan 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2811) | Send Message
     
    Robert : You do deserve credit for putting your thinking cap on for that response. It occurs to me however that if Soros is truly in the business of orchestrating events for effect he would do better by introducing Agents Provocateurs into the Tea Party as a means to influence events driven public opinion using proven tactics as implemented for instance by the likes of Ross Perot and Co., the modern day Pied Piper himself.
    31 Jan 2012, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2811) | Send Message
     
    Lots of footage out there that supports the case for concern over inappropriate tactics.

     

    http://bit.ly/yM2VOO
    31 Jan 2012, 10:39 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (839) | Send Message
     
    Robert, I suffered reading the articles you linked to. The article from The New American says little more than Soros saying he was sympathetic,and that he has supported groups financially which are urging people to join. There is no evidence presented whatsoever showing Soros giving significant funds directly, or indirectly to OWS. Just innuendo.

     

    The other article, from Human Events website, seems to claim that Alliance for Global Justice is managing donations for OWS; which I believe IS true. Of course, seeing as Soros has given that organization all of $100k since 2004, I can see where you would think that makes him the major money behind a movement that started in 2011. A loose collection of partial truths that digresses to speak about the Tides foundation which clouds the issue.

     

    The Fox article is 'sources say this' and 'sources say that', but as usual offers no hard proof of anything it charges. I'll be shocked if you ever find any.

     

    Here's something related http://bit.ly/zEdsDH
    Basically, it shows that people who watch Fox News are less informed than people who say they watch no news at all. It even includes their methodology; far more substantive than the articles from the wing-nut sites that you link to. Maybe you don't have biases, and perhaps you aren't an ideologue; but reasonable people may well wonder why that is the material that you seem to be most familiar with, and seem to trust.
    31 Jan 2012, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Folks

     

    I have made my feelings on this topic known. I for one, take the OWS Movement serious. I really don't care who is backing it. I THINK QUOTING ARTICLES AS PROOF IS WASTING EVERYONES TIME. I watched college students doing nothing wrong being pepper sprayed with industrial size cans. It was reported a rogue doing it, and then getting desk duty, while his boss was already suspended.

     

    If you want to think about other movements within our country college degrees weren;t necessary, in fact i bet half were started by people that never finished HIGH SCHOOL, I could care less if the Tea party is compared to, or included in this movement. It just shows that people have had enough. I have been reading this back and forth and i believe both sides have made valid points.

     

    Just don't underestimate any movement that has the military practicing with the police..That is scary, possibility of being picked up and detained forever bothers me, and i am just afraid that this is the tip of an iceberg. Hell both our World Wars were FOUGHT by people that did not have much education carrying out orders.

     

    Some need to wake up and just accept that our military should not be walking our streets to control them unless were being invaded..Practicing with the Police doesn't bother anyone??

     

    Something is gonna happen and it isn't pretty, not sure who will start it or when, but as our pockets get picked for more money. In NY where we were allowed to park for free forever now meters are going up is another method of killing the middle class. I am dead set against violence, but from both sides....

     

    MAP
    31 Jan 2012, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >MAP ... I agree. It also bothers me that the 1% oligarch types spend a lot of time & money to make sure that people like "robert b. ferguson" think of me as "The Enemy". There is a lot of common ground here, but no common ground shall be allowed to be found.
    31 Jan 2012, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    DRich

     

    That is my concern. Two bright guys who seem to ALMOST agree cannot find that ground. I know Robert from his postings and he does his DD as well as you. Yet it seems that something trivial is keeping two groups apart when WE should all be preparing for the future.

     

    Maybe it me simplifying things but i have serious concerns AFTER the election when i think the ,,,,hits the fan. We ALL SHOULD BE LINING UP JUST IN CASE !!!!

     

    But what do i know...

     

    MAP
    1 Feb 2012, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure that some of the folks who were exposed as agitators were paid by organizations funded by Soros although there is no proof of that, that I could find.
    1 Feb 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    They undoubtedly polled Snookey and friends.
    1 Feb 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2811) | Send Message
     
    While there is plenty of blame to go around for malfeasance, the danger that should most concern the more serious students of history among us is the potential backlash inspired by the sort of social divisiveness that existed in England after the final chapter of glorious revolution completed with the British defeat at New Orleans in 1812, culminating emancipation of the original Tea Party folks resulting in the conditions that triggered the Luddite Movement coincident with the failure of colonial style mercantilism.

     

    As you have pointed out, there is little evidence to substantiate a causal link between the work of the modern day Oliver's of the world and Soros.

     

    http://bit.ly/yNWNtV

     

    http://bit.ly/A4DQkq

     

    http://bit.ly/yB2uYZ
    1 Feb 2012, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    (SPY), (SPX): Futures got as low as -0.97% this A.M., currently -0.856. Market *could* touch -1.5% down today if normal waves play out.

     

    I recall a day or two last year when we saw -3%, 4% in a single day.

     

    But "golden cross" is *almost assured to happen in the next few days as 50 day SMA is rising and 200 is falling and the current "head" of the 50 is mid-November (lower prices dropping out of the average calculation) and the "head" of the 200 is flat, but will be rising relative to the tail, which I suspect will fall for a couple days. Net result for the 200 will be "flattening" continuing.

     

    The Q becomes how much faith will traders, Quants, HFT, ... put in this TA indicator with so much uncertainty surrounding the EZ and even our not really great numbers this morning and what's expected on the job front later in the week.

     

    I've got (http://bit.ly/nPBNjS) on and in a profit position ATM.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan 2012, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Metals are Precious
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    Commodities seem to be calming down as gold is now POSITIVE and silver very close!!

     

    MAP
    30 Jan 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    (SPY), (SPX): Well had set tight stops on my (SPXU) since the market seems to like to "melt up".

     

    Got out with a 7%+ gain for a two-day trade.

     

    Considering my history with trying to play the short side of S & P 500, I feel satisfied with this. Next time I'll plan for an intra-day low 10:00-10:30 time-frame to see if I can do better.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5512) | Send Message
     
    congrats HTL !
    30 Jan 2012, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    Well, I just re-did the math (had used the wrong transaction from my screen) - a 1.8% gain. I'm still not griping, with my history on this. I almost sold at the SPY low this morning, but decided to instead set a stop that gave a small profit and see if I would luck out.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2347) | Send Message
     
    We all just love your integrity, HTL!
    30 Jan 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Gains are all good. They go in the win column. Good job H.T.Love.
    30 Jan 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Integrity? Heck, all he does is tell us how dumb he is. I declare, I intend to prove him wrong one day, even if it makes us both rich!
    30 Jan 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Robert Ferguson: I know we try to stay away from politics for the most part here, but seems inevitable as of late. I, for one, wanted to say I appreciate your fiery candor and honesty on the subjects of late. For me, this is simple...you are either smart/discerning enough to understand communism/socialism's poor track record throughout history and connect the dots (kindergarden level dots...really) to what we have been seeing "progress" here for some time...or you are not. Progressivism is the biggest oxymoron in the history of the known universe. The links are evident....and the results speak for themselves.

     

    I suggest reading Whittaker Chambers "Witness" and research a man named Marvin Olasky for first-hand testimony from those who have been on both sides.
    30 Jan 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Rain: Greetings. Thanks I haven't seen his work yet I'll try to make time to take a look. David, Horowtitz claims to have been a communist as well and has written a brief pamphlet regarding his views of our situation. I'm not altogether sure what to make of it as he could have his own agenda which I haven't actually taken the time and energy to properly scrutinize. http://bit.ly/w3EgEa Thanks again.
    30 Jan 2012, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    (SPX), (SPY): Nothing earth-shattering, but this is the first 3-day down string since the last ended on 12/14/11.

     

    Considering volume looks similar to last year around this time and the market just kept floating aimlessly up like a helium balloon wafting on random winds, I guess the same forces that caused it last year are causing it again this year.

     

    Similar volume in this time-frame in 2010 gave a correction starting around 1/19/10, which ended Feb, 8 when a new leg up started.

     

    All things considered, I think going forward will look more like last year - drifting up when the TA oscillators say it should be flying ... like a homesick brick glides.

     

    "Your Fed at Work for YOU" (as long as you're not a saver, or eat, or care for your descendents welfare, or building a retirement account, or ... you name it)!

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    30 Jan 2012, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    On the investment front...leveraging (attempting) into miners still, and domestic and international oils along with a few sturdy and varied picks during the downdraft which I have identified stable ranges for. Still heavy cash as I am late.

     

    One of the domestic oils I have been in and out of for awhile now [KOG] released some results today for those interested on an up-to-date shale read
    30 Jan 2012, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5512) | Send Message
     
    Do you buy retail on this?...it's a big increase "IF" it happens

     

    http://bloom.bg/xUdKU6
    31 Jan 2012, 04:19 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Are you going with their time frame for buy to hold or a turn around trade?
    31 Jan 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5512) | Send Message
     
    Mostly Regional Banks though

     

    Jan 31 (Reuters) - U.S. Financial Services Sector:
    * Guggenheim raises Bank of America Corp price target to $9 from $6.50
    * Guggenheim raises BB&T price target to $34 from $27.50
    * Guggenheim raises BNY Mellon price target to $28 from $25
    * Guggenheim raises Capital One price target to $54 from $44.50
    * Guggenheim raises First Horizon price target to $10 from $7.50
    * Guggenheim raises Fifth Third Bancorp price target to $15 from
    $13.50
    * Guggenheim raises M&T Bank price target to $95 from $85
    * Guggenheim raises Zions price target to $20 from $16.50
    * Guggenheim raises Northern Trust price target to $48 from $45
    * Guggenheim raises U.S Bancorp . price target to $37 from $30.50
    * Guggenheim raises PNC price target to $70 from $69.50
    * Guggenheim raises Regions Financial price target to $6 from $4
    * Guggenheim raises Suntrust Banks Inc price target to $26 from $22
    ((Bangalore Equities Newsdesk +91 80 4135 5800; within U.S. +1 646 223 8780))
    For Reuters Top News page click the following link:
    31 Jan 2012, 06:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    With that list, it looks like (FAS) might be the play - triple long financials ETF.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2012, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Good call HTL! +16% this week! Did you play it?
    4 Feb 2012, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    No, unfortunately. I'm building dry powder ATM so only entering one or two things for short-term and low-risk. Since I hadn't been tracking *any* financials at all and have no familiarity with their chart patterns, I went with what I am *beginning* to get a handle on (part of my continuous learning) the S& P stuff - in this case the (UPRO) triple long S&P ETF.

     

    One thing I've learned is that the triples can turn and run away from you quite quickly. So if you are in (FAS) I think you want to be sure and lock in at least part of those profits.

     

    I always feel less angst at missing some upside than eating a lot of downside.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    4 Feb 2012, 07:09 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    You're a wise man HTL. And no, unfortunately I'm not in FAS. Just poking around looking for new ideas is all.
    4 Feb 2012, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • pokalolo
    , contributor
    Comments (594) | Send Message
     
    FAS has made our entire group rich,but, it was a lot more fun before the reverse split.. Then it moved like it was on a trampoline and you could easily do 3 trades a week or more if you had several accounts........

     

    I nibbled on SPXU at the close Friday with Greece about to crap out and if they survive this month i'll take the loss Monday afternoon or Tuesday. This way I didn't have to sell FAS. Now SPXU at 10 bucks the downside is pennies not dollars like when it was in the 20s......................
    I did tighten the stop on FAS as there is 20 points + in the thing....................
    5 Feb 2012, 05:35 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2150) | Send Message
     
    Hi Pok,
    Good to see you back.
    5 Feb 2012, 05:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    (SPY), (SPX): Looking at trends since 12/28/10, price is trading a rising channel that has maintained a high-low spread of ~1.44% and rising ~0.266% daily.

     

    If the trend stays intact, we could expect SPY (multiply by 10 to get a rough SPX price if there's little or no slippage - recently hasn't been much).

     

    Highs and lows of the *channel* (not necessarily the actual prices) should look as follows.
    Lows- Highs
    131.50 133.30 1/31/2012
    131.85 133.65
    132.20 134.01
    132.55 134.36
    132.91 134.72
    133.26 135.08
    133.62 135.44
    133.97 135.80
    134.33 136.16
    134.68 136.52
    135.04 136.88
    135.40 137.25
    135.76 137.61
    136.12 137.98
    136.49 138.35
    136.85 138.71
    137.21 139.08
    137.58 139.45

     

    Up days seem to be running at around three or more days in a row up recently. Today looks to move back into channel after yesterdays close right on the low trend line providing support and resistance.

     

    Using a triple-leveraged ETF, (UPRO), one could expect a nice return in a week or two *if* the trend stays intact.

     

    Since we seem to be ignoring EZ issues in the market and the FED is being the FED, I can't see any reason why the trend won't continue until we hit $1350 on the SPX.

     

    Futures right now up 0.42%, EZ markets all up strongly. SPY trading ~131.93 ATM.

     

    I'll be looking for a intra-day low around 10:00-10:30, if recent patterns hold to make a small entry.

     

    From yesterdays close, about 8% gain in around a week, plus a day or two for a down day or two, should be possible.

     

    As usual, keep in mind my poor record trying to play the general market and still working on learning it.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2012, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    (UPRO) Entered two small positions @ $68.559 10:09, SPY was at ~$131.26 or so.

     

    Round-trip break-even $68.76.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    (UPRO): Well, for about 20 minutes when I looked in the mirror I thought I saw a genius! ;-))

     

    Yep, caught it just off the morning low and had moved to $69.04 at 10:25. The a 5 minute consolidation before the next leg up seemed in then works.

     

    10:30 The *NUMBERS* came out and tanked SPY and UPRO, dropping UPRO to as low as $67.60 by 11:54. SPY was at $130.68. I could'a got in $1 cheaper!

     

    But I did a quick review of what I (think) I know about the ADD market, the constant blather about the possible best January in 15 years, the January up and market up 4%+ six months later 9 out of the last 10 Jan up occurrences, ...

     

    Tightened the old (seat) belt, waved my 10 gallon hat and said "Let 'er rip".

     

    So, finished the day down about $0.05 AFAICT. ETrade shows the close at $68.51.

     

    Volume was only ~2M higher than yesterday's (but AH is not done yet) even with the "bad" news this A.M. So there doesn't appear to be a lot of strength in the move down. SPY price traded right around my trend support, closing just below it at $131.32 (I needed ~$133.65).

     

    Market ADD considered, I think it might recover until the jobs numbers Thursday and Friday.

     

    One more down day, making 5 in a row, might be expected. Or maybe not.

     

    I'll give it another day to see how the market acts.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2012, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    A funny take on Davos (not to mention being pretty accurate) from Mark Wallace... if you need a break, this is good: http://seekingalpha.co...
    31 Jan 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5512) | Send Message
     
    very good Jon ! thanks.
    31 Jan 2012, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Jon, Springer: Greetings. Thanks for the link. There is some good stuff there and in the linked ZH article. Some would argue that I'm maladjusted but I've got nothing on the BDI. LOL. I'm keeping an eye on the ETF (SEA). I'm targeting $13.50 as a buy. I made some good coin on it a couple of years ago.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    RBF, regarding the Baltic Dry Index and such, I'll recommend again "The Shipping Man" by Matthew McCleery (can't find it on Amazon currently in paperback, but I own a paperback so it exists). Hemingway, he isn't. But for a quick easy novel that gives insight into the irrational market of shipping, its a good one.
    1 Feb 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2347) | Send Message
     
    Yes, Jon, I also enjoyed reading "The Shipping Man" . Anyone interested in getting a feel for "the financial genius" behind John Fredriksen (think Sea Drill, North Atlantic Drilling, etc.) may enjoy this book by Matthew McCleery. Many reviewers have commented that one key character Coco Jacobsen may resemble Fredriksen in more ways than one. While it is fiction -- I learned more about shipping finance and the financial drivers in this industry than I have from any other single source. It is also a fun read.
    1 Feb 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6190) | Send Message
     
    Too many ships combined with diminshing shipments. A double whammy.
    1 Feb 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10503) | Send Message
     
    The BDI is the most useless indicator out there. Dennis Gartman was on CNBC today saying the exact thing said here in QC months ago.

     

    However, what Gartman did not say is that a few years from now, the BDI may regain some degree of usefullness. Perhaps a lot.
    1 Feb 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Mercy,
    SDRL is one of my favorite plays. From my view, anyone who bets against Big John must be a fool.
    1 Feb 2012, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    Does the equity market feel like it wants to roll over? It had a nice run up since 12/19 on fairly light volume. Last 4 days the S&P has stalled.

     

    Picked up some TVIX.
    31 Jan 2012, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Jeff,

     

    Evidently not just yet. But I too have been and still am expecting a short term correction.
    1 Feb 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5512) | Send Message
     
    Sorry Robert, I just seen your reply. I have never bought retailers except I used to short term trade DG because they were founded about 20 miles from me and had a pattern. Most of my serious investing has been in the last 10 years or so. After 9/11, retailers were just too up & down and you couldn't believe anything.
    I read that and just put it out here to get you guys responses and thoughts.
    I have a hard time believing that one thing would garner a trillion dollars, but what do I know. It makes sense to fix the visa problem but I have a problem with all these numbers using 8-10 years to show how much it will do. (ex=budget defecit, saving a trillion over 10 years is only 100b/yr...that's nothing in a 14 trillion GDP...Not saying we shouldn't save that money, but I am just using numbers over so many years & the market wants gains quarter to quarter)

     

    My summary is it is a bit late for big gains in retail. Look at charts on DG, Family Dollar, Tiffany, etc. They have had huge gains already. If I were buying, I think it would be like Tiffany (high end only). They are the ones who benefit the most from that. IMO
    1 Feb 2012, 03:55 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Ditto. Never have been much of a retail buyer either. BUT if I were, and I have been considering looking for an entry into that arena over the past 4 or 5 months, I would be looking at high-end names like TIF, JWN & ANF. TJX is not high end, but I love the store, so I've been watching it. They do well and seem to be very well managed.
    1 Feb 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    CMG is also a big winner! A bit of a Netflix perhaps, except they don't face the headwinds of competition. they just continue to expand and have significant increases in Same Store Sales. Earnings tomorrow I think.
    1 Feb 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5512) | Send Message
     
    Is it time to take money off the table? I have seen a flurry of these type of articles (mostly from the likes of CNBC type articles) usually a bad sign for me when CNBC, SA, MarketWatch all say "buy,buy,buy".

     

    Beating Market Benchmarks: Time to 'Take Some Risk'
    http://bit.ly/A3hgvf
    1 Feb 2012, 03:58 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5512) | Send Message
     
    Must read these....I am not preaching doom & gloom, the market could very well go higher but there is merit here at some point .
    http://bit.ly/wITu3U
    http://bit.ly/wyciHI
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    1 Feb 2012, 05:48 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5512) | Send Message
     
    Morgan Stanley looks cheap to me...not just because of this deal either...disclosure, MS is on my buy list for short term trade.
    http://bloom.bg/A5cye4
    1 Feb 2012, 06:12 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    (UPRO), (SPY), (SPX): Just put a trailing stop of $0.30 on UPRO, which would allow for a retrace on SPY/SPX of about 0.05% of the gains ATM.

     

    If it SPX starts to give back more than half it's gain, I won't risk the gains. At EOD I'll need to examine, if I'm still in, as the overnight futures can do a lot of damage.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    (UPRO): Got stopped out at $70.586. Since at the time I put the stops in place, SPX was having trouble breaking $1327 (penetrated twice now and come back each time and it's trying a third time now), I just couldn't justify risking all the gains by believing the trading channel alone.

     

    Net result on a two-day trade (and I'm using the right numbers this time! :-)) was 2.66%.

     

    SPY/SPX is back in the trading channel today (that's good) but so far it looks like it won't be supported by volume *today*.

     

    So I think there's a risk, especially with unemployment pending tomorrow, that it could fall back out of the channel.

     

    If volume with a rise comes back, I can always do it again.

     

    Well, SPX almost $1329, so it's going the right way. But the there's a long way to go from the current 67.7M shares traded to yesterday's 157M or Monday's 146M. 25-day average is !136M as of yesterday.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5512) | Send Message
     
    HTL...I am mirroring your earlier post about "thought I seen a genius in the mirror"
    I bought C at EOD Monday at 30.28...bailed in pre-market Tuesday morning 1/2 at 30.46 & 1/2 @ 30.70 today it's $32 !
    Did same thing with MS today, bought 1000 in premarket at 6 a.m. and flipped it for $250 gain and now it's up $1 (coulda woulda shoulda made $1000) I only sold it to buy more AXPW incase it traded <= .35

     

    I just don't trust getting wiped out overnight either...LOL
    1 Feb 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    LOL, what a wild ride today...

     

    My 3 largest holdings by FAR are Lynas, Great Western, and Axion...

     

    Axion filed its shelf offering and is down 22% as I write this...

     

    Lynas after 2 years of struggle finally received its temporary operating license from the Malay AELB for its LAMP...

     

    PLUS Great Western just announced cranking up their brand new furnace at Less Common Metals in the UK....

     

    Huge news for my three largest investments, all coming on the same day.

     

    So I am buying AXPW because its cheap, Lynas because its finally past a key milestone, and watching GWMGF (rather than buying) because I expect the Lynas announcement to steal their thunder.

     

    Lordy, ha'mercy....
    1 Feb 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6190) | Send Message
     
    I was just thinking about the odds that Axion would dilute and Lynas would get their temporary operating permit and GW would start their new furnace on the same day. Unbelievable!
    1 Feb 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2347) | Send Message
     
    TB, Here I am :-))

     

    I am with you on Lynas and Axion -- I couldn't keep up with everything hitting at once and on a day when the market was roaring with euphoria -- had to execute on some range traders! Although I just took a small position in SDS as a hedge -- who knows how long the euphoria will last.
    Mercy
    1 Feb 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Lovely lady, I thought of you as soon as I wrote that (though not before). Its a prayer for your good health, commending you to God...

     

    It would appear that my subconscious is more religious than my conscious mind.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10503) | Send Message
     
    I'll add in on the trifecta of one crazy day. Keeping up with Trip's blog, and the APC, this is the first I've gotten around to reading QC today.

     

    The Evelyn Wood classes I took way back sure came in handy today.

     

    Here is something potentially unprecedented! I just may have to fire up two new APCs in one day. Obviously, a record, if so done.

     

    I know this is counterintutitive, but a quarter gets you a half buck that Axion has something in the works that will pop the stock after today's dilution. Likely, within a month or so.
    1 Feb 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    My money says that your right Maya!
    1 Feb 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Greetings. I think that is a distinct probability and am looking at adding to my core position in (AXPW) because it looks cheap and I like the prospects.
    1 Feb 2012, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    ...and you're ALL right. C-R-A-Z-Y day!
    1 Feb 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10503) | Send Message
     
    Has anybody noticed that the new host is allowing greater "mobility" on Seeking Alpha? Pages loading more quickly?
    1 Feb 2012, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6190) | Send Message
     
    I have not had any stinking gateway error since the last kitten showed on my screen. So that's a good sign...
    1 Feb 2012, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    I did, but then again, I believe (speaking of kittens) I wore out a nearly new mouse today, too!

     

    Sorry guys, I haven't seen a page loading advantage (which I track based upon how long it takes when I hit the notebook icon, for instance). And we are still getting error messages for longer blogs, not that a new server would change that sort of thing.

     

    At least the gremilins that we saw during the changeover are quiet now...
    1 Feb 2012, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10503) | Send Message
     
    Trip: I had to fire up 19 new APCs in the last 32 days. I'm hoping that I can take my usual limit of 150 comments per Concentrator (before I start a new one) up to 200 comments.

     

    We're about to hit 10,000 comments in 6.5 months. Way over 3000 in just this past month. And that doesn't include the 150 plus I was forced to remove.

     

    We're going to have to start talking String Theory and Einstien's Theory of Relativity stuff if JP's green line in his APC tracking chart turns due north.
    1 Feb 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    Maya, keep in mind that *some* fo the potential slow-down is due to client (the user computer and browsers) applications.

     

    For instance, all the gathering of information, all the flagging of new comments, ... rely on client-side activities. So you may not see much benefit. All guesswork as I don't know exactly what functions are done where, but I know I get sick of see holdups watch messages at the bottom of the browser about ping.net, google this, etc.

     

    So don't be surprised if you can't get 200.

     

    Also, after the "venting" about today's action abates, activity should drop back to normal and even below.

     

    Just a thought,
    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2012, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10503) | Send Message
     
    We'll know soon enough. Just glad I didn't choose to head over to Pittsburgh today.
    1 Feb 2012, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    I think the hornet's nest with the APC's (armored personnel concentrators, at least for the EV faithful) is still far from dying down. This has ruffled many feathers, and caught everyone off guard.

     

    Hopefully IR will get ahead of the curve and quell any uprising.

     

    For myself I am just sticking with my plan (just a lot earlier than I had expected, at prices just about where I thought they would be, though I hoped not).

     

    I'm not really averaging down, these new shares are increasing my overall average a little...

     

    But I expect we might see quite a few new faces as folks do searches looking for answers and discover the motherlode in your APC.
    1 Feb 2012, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10503) | Send Message
     
    TB: "Armored personnel concentrators?" That truly cracked me up. LMAO!
    1 Feb 2012, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    AXPW Concentrator 57 ~ 204 comments!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    2 Feb 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    (SPX): The day closed just barely back inside the rising channel. Considering that the "golden cross" is well in play, I'm guessing that market forces are not responding to it. High was not able to match the high of 1/26 in spite of the "golden cross".

     

    Looking *very* short-term, we *may* be entering a sideways trading before making a directional move. This is suggested by the failure noted above and the lower low and lower (very slightly) high of the "waves" begun since 1/23.

     

    But it's really too short a time to call it.

     

    Volume ended a bit better than anticipated - better than the last two days and the 25-day average. But the fact that it couldn't get the high to match 1/26, I'm skeptical that a new leg up, or continuation of the rising channel, is starting.

     

    All very "guessy" here though.

     

    Caveats about me, as usual,
    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    (SPX), (SPY), (SPXU): Based on my feeling that we'd move sideways, that yesterday SPX had trouble breaking $1327, that today it was $1329 (SPY) and more nd intra-day TA, entered a substantial position in SPXU at 11:50 $11.039.

     

    Figuring it would go below $1327.

     

    Right now, have a small profit and will be looking to duck out some time. Putting on trailing stops. Soon.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Feb 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    (SPXU): Well, lesson learned to day - I (apparently) have learned more than I thought.

     

    Had a 1.5% gain in hand as it approached $1220 (got around $1322 at the time) and I said this out to be near a support point and reversal ... but what if I'm wrong? So I set my stop very loose JIC it was going to make a decent correction and come back down more.

     

    Gave away 2/3 of my gain and ended with 1/2 percent. Better than a stick in the eye for a guy learning I guess.

     

    Today's lesson is that I should have more confidence in my SWAGs going forward. I went through this once before for normal stocks - ones I hold longer - and started doing better once I trusted myself.

     

    So, I think I may be starting to get the hang of this trading the SPX/SPY, ... thing.

     

    I still have a way to go to be even across all the trades I tried, but I'm inching closer.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Feb 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2150) | Send Message
     
    Maybe you should allow yourself to swagger a little bit.;-)
    2 Feb 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    No sirree! My POV is this is just the market's way to set me up for over-confidence.

     

    So even if I start getting more regular to the plus side than the minus side, I'll try to maintain a "watch out - you're not as smart as you think" attitude.

     

    If I'm lucky, that will serve me well.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Feb 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    OK, lets see...

     

    Pigs get fat

     

    Hogs get slaughtered

     

    And swaggers get...

     

    Daggers?

     

    Almost works. There has to be a meaningful cautionary note in there somewhere.
    2 Feb 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2150) | Send Message
     
    HTL and TB,
    Point taken on over confidence, but there must be a balance point, maybe cautionary confidence?
    2 Feb 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Prudent pulchritude?
    2 Feb 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    Well, being a typical male and pulchritude being usually a female attribute, I prefer imprudent pulchritude!

     

    HardToLove
    2 Feb 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    I'm just impressed I could spell it (didn't even need spellcheck, assuming its working).
    2 Feb 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2150) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    "Today's lesson is that I should have more confidence in my SWAGs going forward."
    I guess it was a poor play on words of the SWAGs acronym. I do have a strange sense of humor sometimes.;-)
    2 Feb 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    I like it.

     

    Better to swagger than to stagger...
    2 Feb 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    With the proper libation, can do both at once. Sometimes results aren't good though.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Feb 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    When I'm in serious mode, things go right over my head sometimes.

     

    In this case it was "WHOOSH".

     

    HardToLove
    2 Feb 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Capstone Turbine (CPST) is expanding their presence in the Eagle Ford Shale. http://yhoo.it/zw7tB3
    2 Feb 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    Good catch Robert!

     

    With the cc on the 9th, I'm betting on a sell-off going into the cc (seen it before) to bring price back to an add more point.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Feb 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Please check out this article by Chris Ackerman, who is also Prophecy Coal's (PRPCF.PK) and Prophecy Platinum's (PNIKF.PK) investor relations manager: Platinum, A Win-Win Precious Metal. http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Its his first article on SA, so please give him a push by clicking the thumbs-up to recommend his article to other folks on SA.
    2 Feb 2012, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Jon, Springer: Greetings. Thanks for the link his article is well done and worth the read.
    2 Feb 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Chris Ackerman
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Jon, much appreciated!
    2 Feb 2012, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Welcome, Chris. I notice this is your first ever comment - you could not have placed it among a better group.
    2 Feb 2012, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    (UPRO): Entered based on employment numbers this A.M.

     

    Priv sector Dec revised up big, Nov revised up big, +253K avg hourly earnings +0.2% unemp 8.3%.

     

    Jan unemp lowest since 2009

     

    SPX >= $1350 on the horizon.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    3 Feb 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6190) | Send Message
     
    Good play.
    3 Feb 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    Marketwatch report on the employment numbers.

     

    http://bit.ly/AnfTqz

     

    Liesman had a good video piece this A.M. that suggested that things were improving.

     

    Worth hunting for. If I can find it, I'll post a link.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Feb 2012, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6190) | Send Message
     
    Just what I thought...

     

    Record 1.2 Million People Fall Out Of Labor Force In One Month, Labor Force Participation Rate Tumbles To Fresh 30 Year Low
    3 Feb 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    But look at this: the tail of the video suggests there's some real growth started.

     

    http://bit.ly/w4X7QH

     

    P.S. That's my take on growth, not unemployment rate.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Feb 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6190) | Send Message
     
    Take a look at the first two charts:
    http://tinyurl.com/84b...

     

    There has not been a spike like that since 2007... I don't know what to make of that.
    3 Feb 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Probably just too many people following advice from the QC, making a ton of money and taking early retirement ;-)
    3 Feb 2012, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10503) | Send Message
     
    FWIW: Wells Fargo, at the beginning of this year, held some degree of concern about what affect the EZ would hold on the US stock market.

     

    In a very short conversation with my broker, he mentioned that he is beginning to think Europe will be more and more a non-issue this year.

     

    Don't know if Wells' stance has changed, but my broker's concerns have somewhat.

     

    ####

     

    Futures looking good today.
    3 Feb 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • QuickChat
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » New QC is this way:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    4444444444444444444444...

     

    444444444444444444444444
    3 Feb 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18440) | Send Message
     
    FPA: I suspect that it's the combination of retirees, discouraged workers, women entering at a lower rate, etc. We may be returning to a single-earner home in our society as folks combine lack of opportunity, de-leveraging is accompanied by examination of values and priorities, ...

     

    It puts the lie to unemployment, but it also says that a labor shortage will develop, likely, over time as the on-shoring of jobs has begun to trickle up and the economy continues to *slowly* creep up.

     

    Last (adjusts tin-foil hat), what if they were under-reporting the drop-out rate over the last couple of years to avoid panicking folks *and* set up for a strong 2012 election year? We keep the UE rate high for a while and then during the election year we "fix" the drop-out rate (which is not as widely covered and reported) and claim the UE rate improvement proves our policies are working - it just lagged a bit - as we head into elections.

     

    We've already heard complaints about unfilled openings in highly-skilled positions and many larger companies are now starting to work with local education systems for skilled blue-collar training to meet those needs.

     

    If H1B visas get reduced, the shortage becomes more acute.

     

    The thing to watch for, *if* labor shortage develops, is the run-away inflation the FED is sure it can quell. I'm not laughing, *out_loud*!

     

    As the dollar weakened (and will continue to do so?), my u-pipe full of water has come into play I think. Jobs slowly starting to come back here.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    3 Feb 2012, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5512) | Send Message
     
    Something I have been following as the market has melted upward is the growing number of "Gaps" forming on the charts...AAPL, C, MSFT etc,,,any stock almost,

     

    AS most of us know these gaps usually get filled...Monday is a big day for the EZ as Greece meets is deadline (supposedly).

     

    Nothing alarming, but just curious to your thoughts on this,
    3 Feb 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6190) | Send Message
     
    My issue is the spike... we have not seen a spike like that... why this sudden outlier.... its outside of the typical performance envelope... It's very strange.
    3 Feb 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (164) | Send Message
     
    I know we're on to the next Quick Chat, but I look at those charts and Liesman's presentation and I am changing my thoughts.

     

    FWIW, I believe that the spike is entirely due to Boomers in the ~62-68 age range that *wanted* to continue working because *they haven't saved nearly enough*. They spent (just like Governments) instead of saving - contributing greatly to the debt issues we currently face. Now they have given up. While they would probably never have retrained, they *had* hoped to find a new job. However, now they have completely thrown in the towel. And, you’re right about the *skilled* labor shortage. That is *not* going away. The skills have changed and the old skills are no longer needed.

     

    The real issue is ‘What is the consequence’? We know that people are paying down debt in general instead of consuming, but perhaps it's worse than we think. As in the past, most of those in debt will pay it down, save some, and then start consumer spending again. However, this spike of retirees *never will*. They are gone forever as normal consumers. (They will, however, continue to spend Government allowances for medical care.)
    3 Feb 2012, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2150) | Send Message
     
    I agree somewhat, however many people in the 62-68 range saw the 401k get demolished and never did climb back up all the way and the value of the house that they bought in order to downsize for more cash also crashed.
    3 Feb 2012, 11:02 PM Reply Like
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