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  • QuickChat #269, March 5, 2014 581 comments
    Mar 5, 2014 6:56 AM

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    "Sunrise Over the Point" watercolors, by stan bruns, all rights reserved 2014

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Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (581)
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  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Dr. QC for continuing to host this conversation
    5 Mar, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    AND, for the really neat artwork!

     

    Another fine piece, Trip.

     

    WT
    5 Mar, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    RE: (CPST)

     

    Took a large position in Capstone @ $1.86.

     

    Took starter (possibly Scalp or Swing) positions in (OPPT)
    and (BLDP)
    Added to (TEL:NO)

     

    Order in on (PCAR), Thinking Swing trade.

     

    WT
    5 Mar, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    Update-

     

    (OPPT) turned out to be an 18% Scalp today. Just could not walk away from that profit even tho it will no doubt be moving a lot higher.

     

    WT
    5 Mar, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1921) | Send Message
     
    Very nice, WT, but I can't find (OPPT) -- what is it?
    mj
    5 Mar, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    Wind: I need to start following your breadcrumbs. Great job!

     

    ####

     

    Over the past couple of trading sessions, I have been once again building a position in Axion Power. Rumor mill has that KIA will be adopting Axion's PbC battery. Considering that hot money is flowing into PLUG, Fuel Cell and Ballard Power lately, and all three were featured on CNBC earlier today, if KIA does hit, the stock could go into irrational exuberance mode, and pop big.

     

    With all I have put into AXPW, I'd hang myself if I missed out on the action. ;-) Plus, even if KIA doesn't hit, the PIPE deal is almost over, so speculation has a potential supply squeeze coming in a couple of weeks.

     

    Most certainly, not for the faint heart.

     

    Also, if KIA does hit, and some of you Renegades who once owned AXPW, I'd feel badly if I didn't let you guys know what's (maybe) going on, before it happens, if it happens. Over 3.2M shares traded today. Up 8.61% currently.
    5 Mar, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    WT ... did you mean OPPT or OPTT (Ocean Power Technologies) which is up ~13% today?
    5 Mar, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    AXPW closed up over 33% today.
    5 Mar, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    I am accumulating BDC's… I see Axion as a game of
    Russian Roulette with three of the six chambers holding a live cartridge. I don't have the skill set or constitution to trade it...
    6 Mar, 12:43 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (721) | Send Message
     
    Just get underwater, then it is easy
    6 Mar, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    >MJ-

     

    Re: OPPT -

     

    Sorry about that, MJ-

     

    It should be (OPTT) !
    6 Mar, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    >Div-

     

    Yup- sign of age I suppose.
    The stock was around $5 when I put my sell order in but only a few thousand went at that level. Had to settle for $4.72.

     

    WT
    6 Mar, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    "I am accumulating BDC's"

     

    Haven't added any recently, but tracking several both before and since S&P booted BDCs from their indexes. Was about to pull the trigger when Russell index folk announced they also would exclude BDCs if SEC did not change reporting rules by May (when Russell re-balances their index).

     

    Exclusion from S&P and Russell indices strikes me as narrowing market demand for BDCs a bit, making it more expensive/difficult to raise new capital for growth. Wondering if the TBTF's and feds are pushing for the index exclusions.
    6 Mar, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Real life joke of the day:

     

    Putin nominated for 2014 Nobel Peace Prize http://bit.ly/18IpCFL

     

    "Russian President Vladimir Putin was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize by an advocacy group that credits him with bringing about a peaceful resolution to the Syrian-U.S. dispute over chemical weapons."
    5 Mar, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Matched pair with the Obama version which was essentially an award for future accomplishments the committee hoped he would achieve.

     

    Politics.
    5 Mar, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Bernanke Urges Emerging Markets To Prepare For End Of Fed Stimulus
    http://on.wsj.com/1nd5BO6

     

    For $250,000 a speech, I can't wait for his other pearls of wisdom on how people should prepare to deal with the fall out from his policies.
    5 Mar, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    Hit us with sanctions? We'll seize West's assets, Russia warns
    http://cnb.cx/1c9IAdi
    5 Mar, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    LOL, anyone who invests in Putin gets his just desserts...
    5 Mar, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    I posted that because I have no proof, but get the gut feeling this isn't over yet & don't trust yesterday's rally or today either. Too much green in blue chips and almost euphoric gains in small caps.
    5 Mar, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7939) | Send Message
     
    To add to my previous comment about the Ukraine snipers here is an article covering the bankers desire to have control of Ukrainian debt. Maybe they hired the snipers. Keep your colander on.

     

    http://bit.ly/1c9JDKs
    5 Mar, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7939) | Send Message
     
    Is inflation coming. What are some things that you can do about it that are not financial in nature.

     

    http://bit.ly/1ndpynX
    5 Mar, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    Interesting IPO coming Friday:

     

    coupons.com

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    5 Mar, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    Joseph: Your Oct. article about SQM was most certainly prescient. Back then, ~ $23.00. Today? $30.80.

     

    Very nice!
    5 Mar, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1503) | Send Message
     
    Thank you, Maya. For some reason, SA regularly drops this Insta from the icon upper right when I sign in, leaving me to believe I have nothing waiting to be read.
    My bad. How could I imagine there would be nothing here? This is where we find the most common sense and civility one can find anywhere on SA. I'll just start finding it on my own every day from now on!
    14 Mar, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2201) | Send Message
     
    Clever. Bitcoin as the persecuted.

     

    http://bit.ly/1g1UcyI
    5 Mar, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5057) | Send Message
     
    What is really funny is that cash IS highly regulated. Just write a big check and it gets plenty of attention! Banks must report large cash transactions, and checks over $10K.
    Or, ask any of the poor saps that have had cash confiscated while using the highway system,because if you are carrying cash, you are presumed to be a drug dealer.
    It's a racket and the cops are raking in cash by stealing from the public. So is the TSA. It is called "policing for profits" or churning. And, parts of the TN highway system are notorious for this practice.
    http://usat.ly/1g1VfhU
    5 Mar, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    OG & Doc: It's the cyber terrorists that have stolen the bitcoins. So now they can use their stolen bitcoins to do all kinds of anonymous stuff; drugs, guns, or funding more cyber terrorism.

     

    In my travels between Guatemala and Honduras, you have to be on keen attention when you take a day, or multi-day trip. Those border patrol folks will conveniently forget to stamp your passport, or "forget" to give you a slip of paper that you must have in order to get back into the country.

     

    I've been lucky so far, but I've heard stories where people who went from Honduras into Guat for a couple of weeks, and the fines mounted into the hundreds of dollars, all because the border patrol was scamming them.

     

    BTW: When I bought my home with a check, it took 17 days for that check to clear.
    5 Mar, 11:48 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    Re:Cash-

     

    I had a check as a payment to me made out to "Cash". It was a Key Bank check and I went to a Key Bank branch to cash it. The teller said "This is made out to cash. Do you have an account here?" "No, but your customer seems to have one."

     

    "Then I will have to charge you a $5.00 service charge."

     

    After I recovered I went to my bank and cashed the check- No charge.

     

    Gee, I wonder why Key almost went under a couple of years ago. They still may.

     

    WT
    6 Mar, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2201) | Send Message
     
    Ah, but if you carry credit card from major bank you are truly innocent.
    5 Mar, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7939) | Send Message
     
    How about a check book too. Maya wrote a check for a house. They don't confiscate check books just cash. I take my check book to Japan every year and I have never been asked about it.
    6 Mar, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    In-depth report finds Apple moved $8B in untaxed profits out of Australia over past decade
    An investigative report published on Wednesday takes a microscope to Apple's Australian tax dealings since 2002, finding the Cupertino company successfully avoided taxes on profits of $8 billion. The report is the first to assign numbers to Apple's outgoing, untaxed Australian cash flow.
    Appleinsider.com
    6 Mar, 04:47 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    Another Day, Another Retailer in a Massive Credit Card Breach
    http://buswk.co/1fIYuwc
    6 Mar, 04:51 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Newsweek think they found the founder of Bitcoin, an ex-po-zay: http://bit.ly/1fKzAXe
    6 Mar, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    Wow! What a story, Jon.
    6 Mar, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    >Maya-

     

    Have you been watching our child, Steller?

     

    WT
    6 Mar, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    WT: Yep. Stellar performance, lately. Up almost 20 cents since Feb. 26. ($1.41 to $1.6066 right now). Nice run, and all done with low daily volumes.

     

    ####

     

    Broker sent me a packet about Breitburn (BBEP).

     

    Consensus Rating: 16 Buys, 3 Holds, and 0 sells.

     

    Wunderlich-covered ratings: 150 Buys, 84 Holds, 4 Sells

     

    Forward DCF for 2014 is 1.1x; 2015 is 1.2x. Wells thinks the distribution will be raised at some point.

     

    Current yield is 9.9%, with a price target of $24.00. Making for a potential near 30% total return this year.
    6 Mar, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    The invisible elephant in the room is looking to do battle with the invisible gorilla.

     

    Inflation vs Deflation-

     

    a good article on this head-in-the-sand issue.

     

    http://bit.ly/1dwNZJY

     

    WT
    6 Mar, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7939) | Send Message
     
    Not everyone has a head in the sand, some have it firmly located deep with in their gluteus maximus. Stagflation I believe is what we have. Salaries are not going up, jobs are not going up but prices have.

     

    http://bit.ly/1f3nDAy
    6 Mar, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7939) | Send Message
     
    WT here is article from today that repeats the issues with employment and salaries.

     

    "The next chart shows that the surge in corporate profitability in recent years is a result of a consistent reduction of both employment and wage growth."

     

    The article is called "2 Charts Explain Slowest Economic Growth In History" (Stagflation is what it says to me.)

     

    http://bit.ly/1f3qRUw
    6 Mar, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    >DG-

     

    Right on, DG! Reminds me so much of the late seventies. The only cohort enjoying higher REAL incomes are the top 2%.

     

    The pie is sure chopped up differently these days.

     

    WT
    6 Mar, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7939) | Send Message
     
    Pie!!! I just seem to get the dirty pan and am told to wash it.
    6 Mar, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    dg, that's what I have been preaching for a long time.
    6 Mar, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7939) | Send Message
     
    SO your a scullery worker too!!!

     

    http://bit.ly/1cGhntJ
    6 Mar, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    "WT here is article from today that repeats the issues with employment and salaries."

     

    Changing mix between taxable salaries and untaxed benefits has been ongoing for a looong time. IMO, if boosting employment is a prime objective it is/was literally asinine public policy to MANDATE minimum employer contributions to employee medical care insurance with minimum required coverages exceeding most if not all plans offered before Obamacare.
    6 Mar, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv

     

    You're correct in that mandating minimum benefits reduces the employer's arsenal to attract workers since government already requires basic coverages.

     

    I don't agree that the minimum coverages exceed what was offered prior to Obamacare. 2/3s of workers had a benefit program available to them as a result of their employment, either provided at low cost or part of their compensation. Those coverages all have hospitalization and major medical at least as basic program components. Many others also enjoy dental, prescription drug, vision, life insurance, supplemental disability, hearing, visiting nurse services and dependent care. the other 1/3 had bupkis. The taxpayer ended up paying the ridiculously exorbitant charges that the hospitals billed the government for indigent care. Those with a medical insurance program pay medical providers less than 1/3 what Uncle Sap pays as indigent care. That's why hospitals were screaming bloody murder- Obamacare was taking away the real gravy in the industry- payments for indigent care. You know ended up footing that boondoggle- us. We still pay for the indigent but there are a lot less of them and a lot less bankruptcies as a result of medical bills.

     

    No way is it perfect but it is an improvement, IMHO.

     

    WT
    6 Mar, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    The only difference is that in the 1970s interest rates skyrocketed to 21% for short term rates. I forget what mortgages were but ISTR that they were in the 9-10 % range, maybe higher. When I was a construction contractor building houses money was so tight that I made more money just buying and selling building lots.

     

    That was REAL stagflation.

     

    WT
    6 Mar, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    I bought my first house at 14.8%. Inflation was running so high that an entire generation became hedonistic - live high today, for tomorrow it will all be too expensive to buy.
    6 Mar, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    We will have to agree to disagree, WT. There is no question some corporations and unions provided exceptional medical insurance coverages to employees/union members at no out-of-pocket cost to the employee/union member. (They were the exception, however, rather than the rule and some companies continue to cover full cost of employee medical care insurance.) But, I'm not aware of any that provided coverage for children over the age of 18 unless the child was full time college student and then only through age 22. I'm not aware it was common practice for company sponsored health plans to cover cost of abortions or birth control devices/pharmaceuticals for women. And, many companies sponsored employee health insurance plans without contributing Obamacare mandatory shares of premium costs or limiting potential employee out-of-pocket costs to conform with Obamacare.

     

    Taxpayers continue to pay for care of the indigent and pay more but through indirect, offbudget mechanisms called health insurance premiums and medicaid reimbursement rates. Unfunded mandates are TAXES.
    6 Mar, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    >Trip-

     

    Re: The hedonistic generation. I believe that you are absolutely correct.

     

    The young spent like there was no tomorrow. We became an 'immediate consumption society.' Investment in education through employment was pretty much abandoned during this period as there was no longer loyalty between employer and employee- either way. No more gold watch- no more next members of the family moving into the former work position of the retiree.

     

    I was actually an advocate of Retire at 30 until you reach 65 then work for the rest of your life. Didn't quite work out that way- STILL working tho.

     

    {;-)}

     

    WT
    7 Mar, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5057) | Send Message
     
    At that time, not only were mortgages and the taxes on them a deduction for income tax purposes, but so was the interest paid on credit cards and other kinds of consumer credit.
    When those deductions were taken away, that was a game changer, imo. I looked it up out of curiosity, that write-off ended in 1986.
    I knew a man who was flipping houses by putting the down payment on one of the ten or so credit cards he was juggling, making "smoke and mirrors" updates and selling them like hot cakes--Until that deduction was abruptly taken away and he was a casualty.

     

    Paying a high interest rate without some tax relief has been very tough for those mired in consumer debt ever since those deductions were taken away.

     

    Can you imagine what would happen to the real estate market if the real estate tax and mortgage interest no longer qualified a taxpayer to file a Schedule A? Many homeowners could no longer stay in their homes if they had to pay income tax on that amount in addition to their mortgage and RE taxes.

     

    And, while we can all condemn people for being out of control with debt, it is often used as a lifeline and not only as some self indulgent fantasy being played out.

     

    I was surprised to see a local store has instituted lay-away plans. I hadn't seen one in years. This is a service where the store puts away the merchandise for you until you pay for it in full, which is done in installments.
    I recall my mother using such a plan when she got an office job and had to dress for work for the first time in years--in the early 1960's. She bought her suits that way.
    Today, stores such as Lowes and Home Depot offer free credit for a time period ranging from one to several years so their customers can afford to make repairs and improvements.
    I am sure whenever we see these free interest inducements, it's because they need them or business would decline.
    10 Mar, 03:45 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    I was turned onto this last week, by a person in the know with immigrants. They say this is your 2020-25 president. This is the second article in a week. It's Jeb's nephew. He's running for some property office in Texas now as a stepping stone. It's something to watch and definitely not bet against.

     

    A Tale of Two Bushes: One Runs on His Name, the Other … Not So Much

     

    http://yhoo.it/1cGp17A
    6 Mar, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7939) | Send Message
     
    I dont think we can survive another Bush wacking. Hell there wont be anything to wack by the time BO leaves so its kinda a mute point I guess.
    7 Mar, 02:49 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1921) | Send Message
     
    Australian dollar has been picking up steam against the USD http://bit.ly/X8QSGf
    mj
    6 Mar, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    >MJ-

     

    Re: AUD against the $US. Looks like the greenback is the weak child at this point compared to all of the other currencies I know.

     

    In the old days a weak dollar meant more demand for our stuff. I'm not sure that's still the case these days.

     

    WT
    6 Mar, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Daily Mail posted a rumor that (TRQ) will be bought out by (RIO) for $8. Seeking Alpha news feed has reposted this news (http://seekingalpha.co...). I have doubts this can be true for a few reasons but cannot say anything with 100% sureness either way. TRQ stock went up after hours on the rumor (in the low $4 range).
    6 Mar, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    Re: (TRQ)

     

    Dang, Jon-

     

    I had the feeling that baby was worth more than its stock price!

     

    WT
    7 Mar, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Oh. It is, but if value was the only thing that drove stock price...

     

    My colleagues in Mongolia and I are all uncertain about this story. There has been unusual options activity and this piece of new about an agreement with the gov't http://bit.ly/NDR9Cp

     

    Still... advising caution. Been down this road before with this company. Chinese haven't been buying and/or buying at a fair price and there's nowhere else to sell without significantly higher transport costs. Chinese customs has also been a recent issue they're trying to sort out (even if exporting by sea, have to go through China), etc.
    7 Mar, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    OG mentioned ADM and BG a while back, they are on the hit list now.

     

    If Russia Invades Ukraine, Watch Out For These 3 Companies
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    7 Mar, 05:31 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    History:

     

    Saw a check stub for an oilfield worker in 1943 that some might find interesting on wage and tax rates of the time.

     

    80 hrs @ $.86, 64.5 hrs @ $1.29 giving $152 gross wages for 72 hr work weeks.

     

    Withholding consisted of two items. Old age insurance ($1.52) and income tax ($17).
    7 Mar, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7939) | Send Message
     
    old age ins. Is that social security? That tax started in 1937.
    7 Mar, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    "Is that social security? "

     

    Yep.
    7 Mar, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7939) | Send Message
     
    Dr. copper prediction is not good.

     

    http://bit.ly/O21BmR
    7 Mar, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Maybe he should be a Pepper?

     

    Thanks for the link.
    7 Mar, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    Coupons.com post-IPO shot out of a cannon so fast I couldn't catch it. Up almost 100% today.

     

    (COUP)
    7 Mar, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Feels like 1999
    7 Mar, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7939) | Send Message
     
    Yes and it could go down the road of Groupons stock performance.

     

    As my Japanese redneck hunting buddy in Japan used to say when the wild boar (hog in this case) was fast approaching. Be Careful!!

     

    Hogs get slaughtered. So did the boars. Yum!!!
    7 Mar, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    "Feels like 1999"

     

    And 2014 could end up being a metaphor for Napoleon's Waterloo.
    7 Mar, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (721) | Send Message
     
    So far, it's Icerloo, rather than Waterloo, but today was pleasant
    7 Mar, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    guns: That is most certainly possible. But coupons.com is involved with over 2,000 businesses.

     

    Twitter is still figuring out how to monetize their product, and offering coupons would be a great way to do it. As those coupons could be targeted toward tweets that tweet about a place or product. And also, using smart phone GPS, (and this sounds creepy to me) smart phones could alert you that you can get a coupon for 50 cents off on a jug of Tropicana OJ while you're waltzing down the fruit juice aisle at your grocery store.

     

    Facebook could be another takeover candidate.

     

    I can't touch the stock, it being up 100% today.

     

    But then again, my shares of AXPW that I bought on Feb. 24 are up almost 100%, too.
    7 Mar, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Chart showing S&P 500, Fed Reserve Assets, Personal Income & Jobs Growth http://bit.ly/NIbDd6
    7 Mar, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    The Federal Reserve Assets line cracks me up.
    7 Mar, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    MasterCard and Visa to push EMV chip adoption
    MasterCard (MA +0.3%) and Visa (V +0.5%) will form a new group with a focus on pushing forward the adoption of EMV chip technology in the U.S.The entity will work across financial and retail sectors to advocate for the use of the technology in the payments industry.Banks and retailers have been slow to warm up to the EMV initiative due to front-end costs, but the high-profile data hack at Target has teed up the issue in Washington DC.
    | 1:04 PM|1 Comment
    8 Mar, 04:19 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Global sovereign debt's official calculations now exceed $100 trillion; up 40% in 6 years.

     

    http://bloom.bg/1cHshVQ
    9 Mar, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1921) | Send Message
     
    Very sobering, Jon, but the party is still roaring.
    Thx,
    mj
    9 Mar, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    >MJ-

     

    "but the party is still roaring."

     

    Wonder who's going to sign the check for the party.....

     

    WT
    10 Mar, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    40% debt increase is a lot, though it depends upon the economic growth rate. I really doubt the world economy has grown 40% since 2007...

     

    Some countries have, of course (or more). China, for instance. In discussions like this, the specific nation's economy is essentially their "balance sheet". Nothing particularly wrong with expanding debt if your economy is expanding to keep pace or exceed the percentage of debt.

     

    Trouble, of course, when the ratio gets out of whack (like Greece, etc).

     

    Its similar to the "warning, Will Robinson, warning" episodes involving "record S&P index". Without looking at the behavior of the underlying currency its being measured in, and the growth rate of the general economy from whence those corporations are pulling their earnings, its not a particularly illuminating bit of information.
    10 Mar, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    As a follow up, Barry Ritholtz's off color response to CNN saying "the world is $40 trillion in debt":
    http://bit.ly/1cPAK3D
    10 Mar, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    Funny stuff, Jon.
    10 Mar, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    Old Barry says a lot with few words-

     

    Efficiency in commentary.

     

    Rather Zen.
    15 Mar, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    Something to watch out for this week, I was watching the real early news and they showed satellite pics of trucks moving troops with unmarked uniforms deeper into the Ukraine and the Ukraine stated all they knew was it was Russian troops.

     

    This Russia deal could get out of hand. I don't trust Putin.
    10 Mar, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7939) | Send Message
     
    Might be time to buy gold junior miners. Article at ZH.

     

    http://bit.ly/1naEdUd
    10 Mar, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    Great article, guns. You buying it?
    10 Mar, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7939) | Send Message
     
    Buying silver. Damn gold just jumped over $30 bucks from the 11th to today. I just posted that on the 10th. Hope that bounce was not because of my post here. LOL
    13 Mar, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    Broker thinks that another 5% pullback is approaching. He is raising cash.
    10 Mar, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    I think we see a split market. Could be lots of days where the DOW and the NASDAQ go in opposite directions. S&P and Russell could do the same.

     

    Overall, a 5% correction would not be surprising at all, off recent highs. Geopolitical tensions and political miscalculations abound.
    10 Mar, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    WT: Stellar! Back in the black. Up 6.27% to $1.75.
    10 Mar, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    Re:Stellar-

     

    I'm up 2 CENTS!!!
    10 Mar, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    Alarm bells ring over small caps

     

    "We are getting increasingly concerned about the extended nature of small-caps," writes MKM's Jonathan Krinsky, noting the Russell 2000 as of last week closed 42% above its 200-day moving average, the most in four years. A check of the records over the last 30 years when the Russell's been more than 40% above its 200-day finds forward returns 90 days out to be negative 94% of the time, with an average decline of 7%.
    He notes biotech makes up about 5% of the Russell 2000 and that sector's rally seems particularly unsustainable.
    10 Mar, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    Great Panther Reports Further Disruptions at Its Guanajuato Mine Complex (the administration building has been occupied by about 60 people).

     

    http://bit.ly/1dJ9IPd

     

    GPL down over 8%.
    10 Mar, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    Oops! Forgot to relate this.

     

    Saturday, I renegotiated my Verizon (Triple Play) and AT&T (iPhone) contracts for a combined two year savings of $2176 + taxes over the next two years.

     

    I also was able to get more movie channels for less money, and my iPhone was upgraded in bits I can use to watch streaming video (which I almost never use anyway).

     

    Perhaps if you haven't recently looked into renegotiating your contracts, you may be able to save some moolah.
    10 Mar, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    I suspect any willingness to renegotiate contracts reflects steady loss of customers to VOIP vendors and Netflix et al. For myself, I am no longer bound by contract and each and every time Verizon contacts me to pitch a new contract the response is along the lines of

     

    -- I'm not interested.

     

    -- The last time I signed a Verizon contract, Verizon rearranged its channel bundles in a way requiring me to sign up for HD service even though I watched no HD channels and had no HD TVs. No Thanks.

     

    -- I'll sign a new contract with Verizon when hell freezes over.

     

    -- Please remove this number from Verizon's marketing call list.
    10 Mar, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    Sandstorm Gold expects to release Q4 & full year results before market tomorrow.

     

    http://bit.ly/Plbuxh
    10 Mar, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: I was looking into SAND today. They have $3.00 warrants expiring on April 24, which I'm guessing is what has pushed the price down somewhat recently.

     

    I was also surprised to learn that SAND is gaining exposure to both platinum and palladium at their Sierra Pelada project in conjunction with Colossus Mining, in Brazil.

     

    However, Colossus is having difficulties in obtaining more capital to do the build out. Colossus may even go bankrupt, leaving SAND (ahem) in the bag for raising more capital to complete the project.

     

    SAND is very high on my Watch List. I nearly bought some today prior to the report.

     

    ####

     

    Wishing you were around here 3 or 4 years ago to read my numerous rants about Verizon. Verizon's service still stinks, but it's about 1000% better than it was.
    10 Mar, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    "I was looking into SAND today. They have $3.00 warrants expiring on April 24, which I'm guessing is what has pushed the price down somewhat recently."

     

    Thanks for the reminder about those warrants.
    10 Mar, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2110) | Send Message
     
    I watch the price of copper metal regularly. The last few trading days it has fallen about 1% a day. That is a LOT of fall! Apparently someone(s) is selling substantial quantities of Cu into the market. Also check out the year-to-date copper price vs silver (as an example). Ugly!

     

    I suspect nervous Chinese sitting on warehouse quantities of Cu that are (were?) being held as collateral for questionable loans. Re-hypothecation (sp?) is reportedly a big reason in China for the warehousing of large quantities of copper. At what Cu price do the holders of paper backed by this copper get worried? There doesn't seem to be enough copper to back the paper outstanding. Especially if the same copper has been used to back multiple loans!

     

    The Ukraine mess would be a believable event to start a cascade of the debt "sand pile".
    11 Mar, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    James Gruber who posts on SA, Forbes and his personal site Asia Confidential has been following Dr. Copper and Dr. Copper's relationship to the Chinese economy pretty closely.

     

    Found below chart comparing Chinese industrial production and iron ore price; its same story with copper but having trouble finding the copper chart comparison as there are too many posts about Dr. Copper in cyberspace to wade through
    http://bit.ly/1lwsMSl
    11 Mar, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    Hi SH,
    Would the collapse of the copper paper market extend to the gold and silver paper markets here? Just a thought (7 years for partial German gold repatriation).
    11 Mar, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    On Copper: http://bit.ly/1lSNwXs

     

    This is an article I archived back in January, with a note to look it over when March arrived and the delivery prices in London which it mentioned become current...

     

    Note the $7199/mt price for March delivery. Today's 1 week price is $6724.10, for a drop of about 6.6%. So copper is currently down from its projections in January, but given how futures work, this is very close to an accurate prediction.

     

    Its important to remember that China negotiates its copper delivery contracts long in advance, and sometimes pays a strong premium OVER what the copper futures might indicate.

     

    http://bloom.bg/1lSNwXv

     

    The political situation in the major copper producing/exporting nations (Chile in particular, but also other South American sources) has recently changed, so state-owned and operated giants like Codelco (world's largest copper producer and exporter) can alter the futures all by themselves, and it is thought they are seeking to increase shipments to help fund social spending at home.

     

    If anything, I would suspect that China is using its own huge state operated corporations to bypass their national buying contracts (which price copper higher than the spot market) while buying quietly. China is much smarter about these things than they were a decade past.
    11 Mar, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2110) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed, doesn't seem likely there will be a direct tie.

     

    But if the same pile of Chinese copper has been used multiple times to back "paper copper", we could see folks casting suspicious glances at silver and gold paper if the Cu paper market collapses.

     

    I don't personally deal with "paper metals".
    12 Mar, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Unusual volume on Shanghai trading of copper's June futures last night. One commentator thinks there was an intervention:

     

    http://bit.ly/N5ZSfK
    12 Mar, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    China Inc. is in the game.

     

    Speculating against them is VERY dangerous.

     

    The fact that many people still treat Dr. Copper as an excellent proxy for the world markets is a factor as well.

     

    China plays a deep and nuanced strategy.
    12 Mar, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5057) | Send Message
     
    CPST was transcendent ( I've been watching too much Modern Family I guess, lol)
    -- It went up past $2.40 today. It's come back down some, of course... Gotta love those penny stocks...
    Where's HTL?
    11 Mar, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    OG: Hard's power got knocked out a couple of days ago -- ice storm. He went to stay with his daughter. Maybe the power is back on and he's returning home?
    11 Mar, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    O.G.: Still no power. I don't trust the rally. Just sitting on my duff and long positions.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Mar, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    Hard: UGH!
    11 Mar, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    HTL, hope you get back home soon. Missed your comments.

     

    I don't trust this rally either, and the close today did not look good with all the red that showed up by the days end.
    11 Mar, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    Maya & LT: The worst part is that I'll have power but then have to wait on Time-Warner to get internet going again.

     

    I have no idea on the ETA for that.

     

    BTW. re rally. I just got to wondering if this is the normal(?) push up in preparation for "sell in May and go away".

     

    HardToLove
    11 Mar, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Sorry for the utility problems, HTL.

     

    As for the market cycle, I have been expecting it to start breaking with tradition, including the "May" litany. If I'm right, we will see and early sag in the markets in May, followed by a quick surge in some sectors and sub-sectors. We might see capitulation in some mining sectors like gold, followed by a strong spate of very rapid M&A, then a period of ramping strength.

     

    This all assumes, of course, that I am correct in seeing a general (global?) trend toward governments seeking to "manage" markets, all markets.

     

    A brief dip (max 5%, perhaps we are near) followed by a ramp would both reinforce the normal behavior, while disguising any ultimate shift the manipulators might have in store.
    11 Mar, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Doc Copper says the market is turning south. So is iron.

     

    In case you missed my above comment, my broker thinks were about to get a 5% correction.

     

    My I-net came back on when power was restored, which PECO was kind enough to call me 9 hours after the power came back on.
    11 Mar, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    Maya: My i'net was cables on the power poles, which were snapped all up and down the street. Unless TWC is coordinating with Duke, I expect a delay.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Mar, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    >OG-

     

    "CPST was transcendent.."

     

    That's a pretty big word........

     

    WT
    12 Mar, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5057) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Maya. I thought he'd be gleeful today!
    Re: China/Copper-- Jim Chanos has been warning since 2009. Copper is another crack in the armor, so to speak--credit bubble, real estate bubble, empty cities... the other side we don't see or hear of too often. One of his lectures was called "China-The Edifice Complex". He's a brilliant short seller, imo.
    11 Mar, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    The amazing power of the NFL.

     

    Twitter crashed and is down for maintenance, due to a huge spike in tweets about the start of NFL's free agency to start in about 1.5 hours.

     

    Incredible.
    11 Mar, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    First Fantasy Football casualty...
    11 Mar, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Great metaphor for society's capacity to listen to people who prove time and again they don't what they're talking about to fill the day and debate meaningless details.

     

    Just look at the Seahawks, winners of the most recent SuperBowl, who did it largely on the strength of a big basket of players drafted in late rounds... the guys all the experts were wrong about.

     

    * Turns on CNN to find out the news...
    11 Mar, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    SAND reported Q4 and Yr. http://bit.ly/1iwYkWp

     

    "Fourth Quarter Highlights (3 Months)

     

    Record gold sales of 10,523 ounces, excluding Premier Royalty Inc.’s (“Premier Royalty”) attributable ounces.
    Record revenue of $15.8 million.
    Average cash cost per ounce1 of $407 resulting in cash operating margins1 of $863 per ounce.
    Operating cash flow of $8.1 million.
    Net loss of $39.9 million primarily due to a non-cash impairment charge of $52.2 million relating to the Serra Pelada Gold Stream."

     

    "Outlook

     

    Based on the existing gold streams and including attributable production relating to the Company’s NSRs, forecasted 2014 attributable production is between 40,000 to 50,000 gold equivalent ounces, increasing to approximately 60,000 of gold equivalent ounces per annum by 2016. This growth is largely driven by the Company’s portfolio of gold streams with mines, most of which are either currently producing or expected to commence production by 2015."
    11 Mar, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): part of the reason for surge? Price target upped.

     

    "Cowen Lifts PT on Capstone (CPST) to $2.70; New ND Flaring Restrictions, Transportation Could Drive Upside"

     

    'Course, it seems to be a few days late! No ploy? Wait for a run and then up the targets?

     

    http://bit.ly/1fqdIoK

     

    HardToLove
    11 Mar, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Congrats to all you CPST holders ! Way to go HTL !
    11 Mar, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: SAND's book value is 1.5. Still a little steep. But with the impairment out of the way, SAND stands to have a nice report next Q.

     

    I might buy some in the low $5s.
    11 Mar, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    Out of SAND @ $5.97 today. Will watch until those warrants expire (or longer :-)).
    12 Mar, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: Nice, and SAND had a nice move these last two sessions. Regretting not getting in before the report.
    12 Mar, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1921) | Send Message
     
    Nice play in the "sand" D-Inv!
    mj
    12 Mar, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    Maya, MJ - thanks. Do expect it to pull back, but time will tell.
    12 Mar, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    I updated this blog I have on SA so my 5 most recent articles are at the top (whether on Forbes, SA or wherever). http://bit.ly/1fqlgYJ

     

    This way, you can bookmark it if you want to and I'll stop nattering on about my posts here unless there is an actual timely issue. Possible bookmark folders include but are not limited to: "bathroom reading," "things to do in line at the post office," "next time I'm at the DMV," or "for security line at airport."
    11 Mar, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5057) | Send Message
     
    Jon--too humble!
    11 Mar, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    You're right OG, I should have thought bigger. Also please put in the folder for "trying not to lose my mind while talking to computer voices, holding and waiting to talk to a human being that speaks clearly"... publishing an interview that will be over 7,000 words on Saturday... good enough to handle about 38% of your typical hold time with your TV, healthcare, Internet and phone service providers ;-)
    11 Mar, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    >Jon-

     

    Re: Your blog-

     

    Thanks! I do read your stuff.

     

    WT
    12 Mar, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    To follow up on earlier comments by Maya and others, I have a broker on the same level as Maya's other than mine is more a "buy & hold".

     

    A few weeks ago during the last correction, he thought we were half way thru it, then we had this latest rally but I agree with HTL and don't trust it. I expect as TB stated we get another 5% or so, and more if Russia misbehaves.

     

    The bubble appears to have burst on the FCEL stocks. I look for some bio's to take hits as they are overpriced and also there is much bad / or disappointing news on failed trials.

     

    There seems to be strength in out of favor industrials like GE, KO etc. I don't like banks even tho some are touting 15% gains. Just my thoughts for the day
    11 Mar, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    ZeroHedge

     

    "Magic" Collateral: A Frank Look At The Sheer Credit Horror About To Be Unleashed In China

     

    Among the occasional worrying quotes from this:
    "CITIC Trust tried to auction the collateral [to secure loan repayment] but failed to do so because the developer had sold the collateral and also mortgaged it to a few other lenders."

     

    http://bit.ly/1iaLHlx
    11 Mar, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5057) | Send Message
     
    So let's talk strategy for the little guys, the 'Gades not being a Chanos Hedge fund type of group. Let's keep comments about bullets and rice to a minimum, lol-- particularly the rice!
    Obvious plays: Long EEV, Short EEM...What will you do if that day comes? It's been awhile since we had this conversation.
    11 Mar, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    OG: (TZA) Russell 2000 short looks good to me. (SPXS) does, too, as a way to 69 the S&P, if indeed the market may be getting short-sheeted right now.

     

    Maybe time to re-implement the p*rnstar trading method that I used to do a few years ago.

     

    BTW, my gamer account is up just shy of 50% so far this year. Screw Chanos.
    12 Mar, 12:12 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    >OG-

     

    As a hedge I about 12% of holdings are in (SDS). It is DOWN about 1.5% right now.

     

    I have WRITES on LINE $31 PUTS 3/22- Looks like I may be owning them.

     

    I have a large position in (MNKD) recently acquired (5th time this year) that I will be writing CALLs on, probably $6.50 of April 4.

     

    Bot some (WUBA) earlier today at $50.10 trading at $54 right now up 3% for the day. This should be a SWING trade.

     

    Holding (CPST) with a 25% gain right now.

     

    Most of the other stuff is pharma and tech all with tight stops. Back in Ballard with another addition this am.

     

    Small positions in (GPL) and (AUY)

     

    Calls for (NCR) April $34s up 22%

     

    (SGMA) My big loser- down 22% in 2 days!

     

    I need to learn how to focus better! I have too much STUFF!

     

    WT
    12 Mar, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    Re: Positions-

     

    Sold the (WUBA) at $55.00 + 10% net

     

    Bot some (MYL) at $53.00 Swing trade I hope.

     

    Bot some (COMM) at $21.30 also for a quick trade

     

    WT
    12 Mar, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7939) | Send Message
     
    I am in VIX right now. Still holding my breath though since I am under water but I do not expect that to last if things go south.
    13 Mar, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7939) | Send Message
     
    I am in VIX right now. Still holding my breath though since I am under water but I do not expect that to last if things go south.

     

    Seems to have posted above you OG. Reposted here. Hope its not a glitch and it posts above you again. Hoping it was my screw up.
    13 Mar, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    Interesting development on energy efficient lighting.

     

    http://bit.ly/1iaMVxb
    11 Mar, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Yes. LED's consume REEs, of course, though some primary producers (like Lynas management) are discounting their speed of acceptance in the mass market.

     

    LOL, as an early adopter, I disagree. We switched to LEDs a few years back for our art show displays. Our batteries last longer, and the lights live longer. I have been phasing them into our home installations as well.

     

    Of course, most current LEDs are expensive compared to other competition due to the fact that all the gear to smooth out the power and turn it back into DC is being included in each and every light bulb. I expect the next quantum shift will be when we start to see these capabilities built into the fixtures themselves, allowing the bulbs to be more akin to traditional units.

     

    One reason CF units are also pricey has been the fact that they must also include ballast support inside each bulb, whereas true fluorescent fixtures of course have a large ballast prewired, and can use simple F units.

     

    The Scandinavians are making this switch wholesale, and I expect much of Europe to follow, probably starting with the regimented Germans.
    12 Mar, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    Re: LEDs-

     

    I purchased LED strip lights for under kitchen cabinet lighting. Will be replacing eight small fluorescent lamps under the cabinets now. The lamps burn out a lamp every 8 months on average at $6 a pop. the LED strips come with a 12V transformer(s) that plug in and are connected by a clip attached to the strip after cutting with scissors. They have stickum but I just use push-pins. Work great. Also use them for indirect lighting. A dimmer setup is available. 100,000 hours expectancy.

     

    They are quite reasonable. a 30' strip kit with 3 transformers and all the connectors you need was about $40.

     

    WT
    12 Mar, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2201) | Send Message
     
    Sounds like a good plan, WT.

     

    I have the little fluoro's under my cabinets and gave up replacing the burnt bulbs years ago.

     

    Where did you get the LED kits?
    12 Mar, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    I'm in the same boat, Doc. I have six under the kitchen cabinet fluorescent fixtures, and only one partially works. Been a project I've been putting off.

     

    Thanks, WT for providing a possible solution. Inexpensive, too!
    12 Mar, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    I get all my woodworking stuff from Lee Veritas. I am familiar with their reputation and quality. I saw an add for their newer product, LED lighting and gave it a try.
    Having said that they MAY be more expensive than others so you might want to check around.

     

    This is a link to Lee Veritas and their LED products. Quite a laundry list of stuff.

     

    http://bit.ly/1gl8UAM

     

    Have fun!

     

    WT
    12 Mar, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2201) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, WT.

     

    I am very familiar with Lee Valley, having ordered tools, planes, and hardware from them in years past when I was playing with woodworking. Excellent company.

     

    I am going to give the LED kit a try.

     

    Looks like the wall switch dimmer units would be perfect to fit the system, as the current fluoro fixtures are already wired into wall switches that can be swapped out with minimal wiring or structural changes.
    12 Mar, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    >SM-

     

    Re: LEDs-

     

    Great! Hope they work out for you.

     

    WT
    12 Mar, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    Check out GERN today, I posted here instead of Med blog because I think the froth is gonna be taken out of things. Including all but the strongest bio's with pretty much a proven drug and a pipeline with strong candidates. Same for industrials and tech, if no new products or game changers...then see Oracle and Intel to see what I predict for the year.

     

    It's been hype, run a stock to the moon, capital raise and stock price crash.
    12 Mar, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1921) | Send Message
     
    Agree LT -- most of my biotech positions are for short term trading only, although I do enough research on each to find those with an attractive short term thesis.
    mj
    12 Mar, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2110) | Send Message
     
    >LT: When stocks like FCEL, Ballard and other long term losers in the fuel cell business start to run up on no news, you know the momo players are desperate for a new group to pump up. I don't follow bio stocks, but I assume they are "tech parallels" to the FC stocks.

     

    I believe that (CPST) has recently been sucked into the momentum ride. I am a big fan of their tech but don't own them now for that reason.

     

    I lived thru 1999-2000 and remember well the madness. The last 16 months reminds me of those times.
    13 Mar, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1921) | Send Message
     
    SH --

     

    I agree that several biotechs are in bubble territory, but I also think that they are NOT all created equal in their opportunity for short-term plays. For anyone interested this SA article presents 2 excellent risk/reward trade-off charts for several biotechs and you can see the wide gulf of opportunity between many of them: http://seekingalpha.co... The data is derived from the use of options by Market Makers to hedge their at-risk capital exposures.

     

    BTW -- the second chart in this article appears to show Affymetrix (AFFX) as a no-brainer BUY -- but be aware that a limitation of the chart is that it depends on historical data from Market Makers hedging with options. So if a stock does not have options availability or large volume liquidity the position on the chart may be misleading.
    mj
    (Disclosure long (AFFX)
    14 Mar, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1503) | Send Message
     
    Mercy, biotech is inherently volatile given that it plunges or soars on FDA approval in clinical trials or, more often, rumors of same. I like AFFX, too, as well as, heaven help us, MNKD. But because of the volatility of the sector, I use trailing stops and have been stopped out with small profits or small losses most of the time. The only ones that just keep chugging along for me, ever since 2009, are HQL and HQH. Few thrills but, so far, no spills, either!
    18 Mar, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    CPST got a follow on order for 50 more turbines for the US gas industry...so far they are up and holding.
    12 Mar, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    And here's the PR: (CPST) "Capstone Receives Follow-on Orders for Fifty C65s From Horizon Power Systems for Multiple U.S. Oil and Gas Customers"

     

    Figure roughly $110K/unit for a nice revenue enhancement.

     

    http://bit.ly/1cThmmu

     

    HardToLove
    12 Mar, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    Re: (LINE) Well, Cramer's back on the negative side suggesting a switch to (KMP). I guess I'm ambivalent-

     

    I'm short the (LINE) PUTS for $31s March 22, but long a goodly sized portion of Kinder Morgan Partners.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    WT
    12 Mar, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    I beat Cramer by almost two weeks. Bailed completely on LINE and bought KMP. LINE is down since I sold it, and KMP is up since I bought it.

     

    Although, I think my BBEP shares are down today because LINE is down.
    12 Mar, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    >Maya-

     

    Nicely done!

     

    I looked at Breitburn but passed for these reasons-

     

    There was the decline in price after BreitBurn posted year end results attributable to the drop in distributable cash flow. They reported a distributable cash flow per unit of $0.46 against $0.64 in the previous quarter. At the same time their distribution coverage ratio dropped from 1.3x to 0.93x in the fourth quarter 2013.

     

    WT
    12 Mar, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    WT: Thanks.

     

    Yes, that's exactly why I knee jerked and sold BBEP for a gain, but then the next day I learned that BBEP's forward guidance has a 1.10 ratio for this year, and possibly (IIRC) a 1.15 or 1.20 ratio next year. Meaning that the yield has an excellent chance of rising, along with unit price. WFC's target is $24.00.

     

    So I bought back the shares, and expect to hang on to them for years, hopefully. Last I checked, BBEP is just a few pennies north of where I bought them. Wish I hadn't chucked the report into file 13 that I received, but I believe about 25 comments back in my comment stream was a summation for BBEP's forward guidance.
    12 Mar, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Maya-

     

    I will review the stock. Sounds like they have the disbursement ratios under control and growth in the flo as well.
    I have (KMP) and may own a whole lot of (LINE) if it stays under $31 so I will wait until I see what fate deals.

     

    WT
    12 Mar, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (902) | Send Message
     
    Cramer invited Linn CEO Ellis back on the show, so a boost ought to follow that appearance.
    13 Mar, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    (KMP) Took a 2% hit today- I'm starting to get even more paranoid!
    13 Mar, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (721) | Send Message
     
    Bought KMI today
    13 Mar, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (721) | Send Message
     
    Took a small nibble of RIG too
    13 Mar, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    Tech giants enjoy tax-free interest on offshore Treasury holdings
    Apple (AAPL) Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG) and Cisco Systems (CSCO) hold a combined $124B in U.S. Treasurys and a further $39B in other government debt, the U.K.'s Bureau of Investigative Journalism calculates.The tech giants appear to hold much U.S. debt offshore, which enables them to earn tax-free interest. Repatriating the assets would saddle them with a huge tax bill.Unsurprisingly, Senator Carl Levin is not happy. "If a U.S. multinational puts its offshore cash into a U.S. bank and uses the money to buy U.S. Treasurys, stocks and bonds, those funds ought to be treated as having been repatriated and subject to US tax."
    | 4:26 AM|6 Comments
    13 Mar, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    Cash Abroad Rises $206 Billion as Apple to IBM Avoid Tax
    http://bloom.bg/1ft3uzd
    13 Mar, 07:07 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    FairTax. The fantasy game of "taxing" corporations needs to end.
    13 Mar, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7939) | Send Message
     
    +100,000.

     

    Sorry TB I can only give you one thumbs up for that comment. Its unfortunate so few get it.

     

    Corporations do not pay taxes!!!

     

    They simply pass them on to the consumer who pays the tax for them via higher prices or they buy a politician and he exempts them via the tax code or exemption. Just look at GM and GE. GEE WIZZ folks.
    13 Mar, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    Gold Prices Pop as Russian Troops Build Near Ukraine Border
    http://bit.ly/1cAWDsR
    13 Mar, 06:56 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    Re: Positions-

     

    (BLDP) SOLD 40% of the position @$6.25 for a 22% profit for 9 days.
    13 Mar, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1921) | Send Message
     
    You're as quick as the "wind" collecting those gains! Nicely done.
    mj
    13 Mar, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    >MJ-

     

    Re: Gains-

     

    In retrospect It would have been the right thing to do to sell ALL the (BLDP). It is now trading $.40 less than what I sold the 40% portion for.

     

    I will look for a pop and sell the rest.

     

    These gains are ephemeral at best- Get 'em while you can. I AM holding a large position in (CPST) tho- nice story developing there.

     

    WT
    13 Mar, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    Re:Positions-

     

    SOLD the balance of the (BLDP) position on a small bounce up to $5.99. Profit of $.65.

     

    WT
    13 Mar, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    FWIW

     

    Re: (BLDP)

     

    Trading @ $4.75 with 25 minutes to close 3/18

     

    WT
    18 Mar, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7939) | Send Message
     
    Another banker dead. This one "jumps" in front of train.

     

    http://bit.ly/1kODIgW
    13 Mar, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1921) | Send Message
     
    Author of "Seven Sins of Wall Street" points out on Bloomberg that the 4 largest banks today are 50% bigger than they were in 2007 before the meltdown. Too big to change is alive and growing.
    mj
    13 Mar, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1921) | Send Message
     
    I think we are likely to see more developing countries enact similar provisions to just "take" a free stake in new mineral and energy investments. If enough countries follow suit -- it won't hurt investments as much as it will raise prices.

     

    SA:
    "The new law [in South Africa] will secure for the state a free 20% stake in all new energy ventures and enable it to buy an unspecified additional share at an "agreed price,” and it enable the mines minister to declare some minerals strategic and force companies processing them to sell some output to local manufacturers."
    http://bit.ly/1iF4QdS
    mj
    13 Mar, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    This trend comes in waves. The thing these gov'ts still haven't figured out is how not to take this too far and drive off the businesses that have the skills the countries need in order to develop.

     

    As a bombastic friend likes to say when ticked off at DaftCountryX:
    Even ImbecileCountryZ knows that you don't try to renegotiate until *after* the BigMultiNationalCorpor... builds the damn mine/power plant/project!

     

    In the end, when dealing with huge multinationals, the multinationals can just tell the sovereign nation to "go fish" and do work in nations that give them better deals until the offending country breaks and gives in to their demands. Will be interesting to see if South Africa has overplayed their hand here, or if they found a palatable demand companies will swallow (*place bet on overplayed or will get overly emboldened and overplay).

     

    ***
    I am persistently told South Africa is not in good shape (i.e. a civil war breaking out there wouldn't be a surprise). Been there twice ('95 an '10) and I'm not sure its that bad, but I do know they have really failed to improve the education system post-Apartheid to half the extend they should of, let alone could have; and the monogamous political relationship with the ANC isn't working out well since Mandela left office.
    13 Mar, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1503) | Send Message
     
    Jon, I was last there in the Golden Year of 2000 when Mandela held it together by a quiet force of will, decreeing no revenge against the apartheid-era excesses, and envisioning a Rainbow Nation moving forward with confidence and optimism. The difference between a statesman and your usual run of venal politicians has never been more evident. Rather than improve education and health care, welcome entrepreneurs, and create employment opportunities, it's so much easier just to blame someone else for our troubles and soak those firms willing to invest -- in our future.
    18 Mar, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2110) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Pater Tenebrarum asks "Is it a bubble yet"

     

    With some nice graphs to back his thoughts. The first paragraph illustrates my thoughts over the last 12 months, with emphasis on 2014.

     

     Concerning (CPST); a famous robot to Will Robinson comment comes to mind.
    13 Mar, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Turquoise Hill (TRQ)

     

    March 6, 2014, $4.14
    March 13, 2014, $3.43

     

    Avert your eyes.

     

    I have the wrong side of a gentleman's bet with a friend from 2012 whether it will touch the $2 range or the $10 range first. About time I go buy him a beer...
    13 Mar, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    Which way are you betting, Jon? Just kidding-

     

    WT
    13 Mar, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1921) | Send Message
     
    This report gave me the clearest understanding on why some think the Malaysian airplane involved air piracy. Two U.S. officials told ABC News the U.S. believes that the shutdown of two communication systems happened separately on Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. One source said this indicates the plane did not come out of the sky because of a catastrophic failure.
    The data reporting system, they believe, was shut down at 1:07 a.m. The transponder -- which transmits location and altitude -- shut down at 1:21 a.m.

     

    This indicates it may well have been a deliberate act, ABC News aviation consultant John Nance said.

     

    U.S. investigators told ABC News that the two modes of communication were "systematically shut down."

     

    http://abcn.ws/Op64Ai

     

    The mystery grows.
    mj
    13 Mar, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    Wall St. is back in full form, run a stock from under $1 to way over $2 and then a new share offering to raise capital....and they did get a call about the "unusual trading"...wonder what was said other than the com. denying and not having a clue as to why the unusual trading.

     

    ZBB Energy announces public offering, shares -7.2% AH
    Mar 13 2014, 16:43 ET
    ZBB Energy (ZBB) -7.2% AH after announcing a public offering of common stock of an unspecified number of shares.ZBB says it intends to use the net proceeds for working capital and general corporate purposes.
    14 Mar, 05:29 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    remember that basket of chip stocks I purchased ? Here come the upgrades after I', out.

     

    March 14 (Reuters) - NXP Semiconductors NV :
    * Susquehanna raises target price to $68 from $60; rating positive
    For a summary of rating and price target changes on U.S. companies:
    Reuters Eikon users, click on
    Reuters 3000Xtra users, double-click

     

    March 14 (Reuters) - Atmel Corp :
    * BofA Merrill starts with buy; price target $11
    For a summary of rating and price target changes on U.S. companies:
    Reuters Eikon users, click on
    Reuters 3000Xtra users, double-click
    14 Mar, 06:36 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Commodities trading industry consolidating globally.

     

    Bloomberg: Behind the $100 Billion Commodity Empire That Few Know
    http://bloom.bg/OpXm4J
    14 Mar, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5057) | Send Message
     
    TNK up over 9% today and SPHRY (StarPharma- Australian stock) up over 7%.
    14 Mar, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1921) | Send Message
     
    Provocative excellent analysis by Joseph Stuber:

     

    "... QE Effectively Ended In December But They Forgot To Tell Us ... The Fed has done a total of more than $4 trillion in reverse repos in just a little over 2 months ... what is important to understand is that a reverse repo withdraws liquidity from the banking system ... by selling a security ... The sheer size of the reverse repos the Fed has engaged in ... suggest they are fighting with everything they've got at their disposal to prevent a market panic and keep a floor under the dollar ... they must defend the 79.00 level [in the USD index.] In my view capital preservation trumps any other consideration at this time."

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    mj
    14 Mar, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    >MJ_

     

    Good article by Joe-

     

    If I understand correctly the reverse repo will result in reducing dollars in the void therefore making the dollar stronger?

     

    I have increased my allocation to (SDS) by another 10%. Currently up 2.5% prior to the addition.

     

    The whole thing is looking uglier and uglier, with some deja vu included.

     

    WT
    14 Mar, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    Good read. Thanks, MJ.
    14 Mar, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    FWIW, a partial reaction to Joseph Stuber's article can be found at http://seekingalpha.co...
    14 Mar, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1921) | Send Message
     
    Good additional insight with your post D-inv.
    thx,
    mj
    15 Mar, 07:16 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    Mercy: Fantastic article.

     

    So to D-inv, WT, and you Mercy, what's your take on these reverse repos? I didn't even know they existed until right now.

     

    Is the dollar about to free fall? Will banks be able to lend? Are these reverse repos an attempt by the Fed to prevent another market collapse? Is this why China is buying gold hand over fist? Why China is easing out of owning US debt?

     

    Lots to consider, including the upping of my desire for the first time ever, to short the market with my brokerage account.
    15 Mar, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    So if there is no action with a Reverse Repo the liquidity remains steady but if it is sold liquidity is reduced.

     

    The fact that they are doing this suggests to me that the fed went too far and now they have to counter the former activity?

     

    SHEESE!

     

    I'm going over to my digital mentor the St. Louis fed to see if they have stuff on the rev-repo that I can grok better!

     

    WT
    15 Mar, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    One thing to keep in mind is the very short time period of these contracts. Most last but a single day, though I saw a few that were 3 or 4 days.

     

    You get the "trillions" activity volume only by counting the same dollars being parked multiple times each week.

     

    QE, on the other hand, involves investments which last a good bit longer than a business day.

     

    Just looking at the list in a casual way, for instance, there was $87b Jan 2, which dropped to $57b on Jan 3, where it stayed until Jan 6, when it was upped to $133b, etc, etc. Sometimes the total is over $200b, other times much less.

     

    Just as with analyzing the volume behavior for a stock, the total traded per month is interesting, and shows something, but just adding it all into a big number for a random length of time is not too revealing.

     

    Now, if these monies were being placed on deposit for extended periods of time, months on end, YES, the total would be an amazing and important statistic to watch.

     

    My first impression whenever these Reverse Repo numbers start to climb is that we are seeing the 2big2fails awash in cash with nowhere else to park it, and the Fed is the last resort. Of course, one reason some 2bigs might have a huge surplus is the zirp program, which has been pouring free dollars into them nonstop since forever.

     

    Another factor which I would expect to find at work in this would be the steady flight of capital from the sovereign debt debacle in the EZ. Much of this money is coming here.

     

    I believe the steady sell-down in Chinese treasury holdings IS involved, as those dollars will ultimately circle around and find homes in at least some of the 2bigs, but once again, these 1 time day or two deposits aren't going to fill those shoes anytime soon.
    15 Mar, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    Mercy: I gave John Lounsbury a heads up about the reverse repos, and yesterday he put the article in his Economic Intersection website under "What We Read Today."

     

    Even though it "appears" that this program is a wash, I still can't let go that the Fed is moving around $4T in 2.5 months. I would love to know how many individual transactions occur daily, how these transactions are being tracked, how they are audited, and accounted for. We're talking about, and even though it's more or less the "same money," a total that is nearly a (supposed) quarter of the US national debt. In 2.5 months. Amazing.

     

    BTW: I don't think you were around SA when John was a regular SA Contributor, one of my very favorites, and occasionally he would hang with the Renegades back in the day. I just joined John's Premium Subscription for $25.00.

     

    Every Sunday, Jeff Miller, who also writes here on SA, writes his "The Week Ahead," articles, which for me is mandatory reading every Sunday. Though Jeff's articles are free for everyone to read, I don't mind paying Lounsbury's website $25.00 for the Premium Membership, because Jeff's articles are superior to any I know of about what's coming for any particular week. In other words. he's really, really good.

     

    Off to read this weeks edition. The title alone is compelling!

     

    This week's edition is, "The Week Ahead: A Fed Meeting To Change The World"

     

    http://bit.ly/1e8CTeF

     

    16 Mar, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    Maya, my take on the reverse repos addressed by Stuber is he makes a mountain out of a molehill while performing a public service in drawing attention to a structural change in financial markets flowing logically from Dodd-Frank or other legislation expanding the Fed's regulatory reach. It is my very clear, strong impression that prior to Dodd-Frank the Fed dealt only with commercial banks and foreign bank branches enrolled in the federal reserve system. Money market mutual funds were not among that group. Neither were government-sponsored enterprises. Both are mentioned in Stuber's article as purchasing reverse repos and MMFs purchases were also the subject of the Reuter's article cited by Stuber.

     

    Stuber's analysis is deeply flawed as I attempted to point out gently in my earlier referenced comment posted at the instablog giving initial, partial reaction to the analysis. That comment included text reading, " Updating the rrepos transactions to include 12/31/13 and today, my spreadsheet indicates that on balance rrepos transactions added $95.6 billion of liquidity in January, withdrew $12.34 billion in February and injected $60.226 billion in the first two weeks of March for a net liquidity injection of $143.5 billion." Stuber argued the Fed withdrew liquidity through reverse repo activity at an average rate of $80.577b per month in Jan.-Feb.

     

    IMO, Mr. Stuber exhibited strong confirmation bias in the article, virtually arguing five apples +/- three oranges = 7 pineapples.
    16 Mar, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    Maya, agree re-Jeff Miller being very good and worth reading.

     

    Re - "Even though it 'appears' that this program is a wash, I still can't let go that the Fed is moving around $4T in 2.5 months. I would love to know how many individual transactions occur daily, ...." the number of bidders on reverse repos is disclosed on a daily basis. See http://nyfed.org/1g1P3YS
    16 Mar, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1921) | Send Message
     
    Good article from Miller -- Maya!

     

    Sorry for my delay in responding (weekend distractions.)
    Here is my take FWIW -- and I'm very interested in other POV:

     

    1) The Fed openly stated last August that reverse repos would be used as a means to control short-term rates and perhaps even hoping it would be used to replace the Fed funds rate as the primary benchmark for U.S. borrowing costs

     

    2) Reverse repos are being favored by the Fed for hiking interest rates over the use of the federal funds rate alone because:

     

    a) more counterparties (non-banks) are eligible and can participate in the Fed's reverse repo (it's open to the Fed’s 139 tri-party reverse repo counterparties, which include 94 money-market mutual funds, six government-sponsored entities, 18 banks and the Fed’s 21 primary dealers.) and

     

    b) the alternative of shrinking the Fed balance sheet (which is highly rate sensitive) to reduce liquidity and in turn hike rates would provide a "dangerous" advance signal to the markets (According to EuroMoney the Fed projects that 10-year yields would need to reach only 4% by the end of 2015 for the $250 billion unrealized gain it has accumulated between 2009 and [2013] to turn into a $350 billion loss under an asset selling scenario.) So if more counterparties can participate -- the Fed can more likely succeed in using the reverse repo rates as a tool to hike its key policy rate slowly -- all the while holding assets to duration without a capital loss.

     

    3) The attraction of more counterparties into reverse repos appears to me to be critical in making this tool viable for its "intended" purpose. Fitch reported that many eligible Money Funds had been refusing to use the reverse repo facility at the Fed because there is still no assurance that it will be permanent. These Money Funds have been hedging their bets by using exclusively or partially the general collateral repos from banks and dealers -- as a way to ensure reliable funding even at disadvantageous rates vs. those offered by the Fed's reverse repos. As of last month, however JPM pointed out that these bank and dealer repos have reached the lowest amount on record i.e. presumbably more Money Funds are gaining confidence that the Fed's program will indeed become permanent beyond 2015 and are using it more.

     

    4) The Fed also openly raised the maximum allotment cap for reverse repos -- per counterparty -- per day over the past several months:
    December 20, 2013 -- $1B cap per counterparty per day raised to $3B
    January 29, 2014 -- $3B cap per counterparty per day raised to $5B
    March 4, 2014 -- $5B cap per counterparty per day raised to $7B

     

    So JPM reports above that more counterparties appear to be using the Fed's reverse repos while at the same time the Fed is growing the counterparty cap per day by 600% in less than 3 months -- and has said it is likely to grow further this year.

     

    5) The volume averaging methodology used in the article does have its limitations, but the bottom line is that the $$ volume and number of participants appear to be mushrooming. And this would appear to serve the interest of the Fed for the two reasons I mentioned above. Having said that, I completely agree that managing short term interest rates is a very small piece of the potential impact, because as the author pointed out rates are inextricably linked to liquidity, credit availability, demand for USDs, value of the US dollar index, equity values for the carry trade, etc. etc. It is indeed a very partial story the Fed has woven in announcing the use of reverse repos to manage short term rates.

     

    The bottom line for me is that before the heavy use of reverse repos the short term rate market gave some players access to Treasury collateral while others hedged their bets with bank and dealer general collateral repos. Now more players have access to high quality liquid assets for collateral which should allow everyone to enjoy the Fed party longer. I worry about the false sense of omnipotence the Fed seems to have in its multiple market manipulations. Cheap plentiful credit has created a carry trade driven bull market. Margin debt alone hit a record level in January -- $451B on the NYSE (20 per cent increase YOY). While that means more dealers can seize more rehypothecation opportunities while accessing the Fed's reverse repos -- only time will tell whether the Fed's position of owning a third of all US Treasuries and deploying them in a mushrooming reverse repo program can help manage a calm transition in the inevitable market sell-off I expect when credit becomes tighter and more expensive.
    mj
    17 Mar, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: Thanks! According to J. Lounsbury, if you roll over $82B 49 times you get about $4T. I agree with your debunking Stuber's analysis.
    17 Mar, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    Fantastic summary, Mercy. Thanks to you, D-inv, trip and J. Lounsbury, I now better understand reverse repos, and actually think that the Fed is doing the right thing.

     

    Glad you enjoyed Miller. Actually, I thought his latest article was one of his lessor ones from an informative perspective, only because not a whole lot is going on this week.
    17 Mar, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    Excellent! Thanks for sharing perspective, MJ. Really fleshed out market skeletal structure changes a bit.
    17 Mar, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    MJ has a beautiful, structured mind. She is a pearl beyond price.
    17 Mar, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1921) | Send Message
     
    Thanks TB -- I'll have to show your comment to my husband next time he is engaged in an argument with me! LOL

     

    D-Inv -- your comment and a couple of others did get the author to humbly admit the limitations of his volume averaging methodology. Well done.
    mj
    17 Mar, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7939) | Send Message
     
    MJ, I wonder if this is a result of the individual investors not buying now and banking more money.
    That would explain why they have raised the limits you noted copied below.

     

    Why do they have to raise the limits is my question. Must mean there is more liquidity piling up at the banks which with such a low interest rate I find HARD TO BELIEVE unless folks see no other place to put thier money. Maybe that would explain price of gold and silver going up too!!! Car sales down, home sales down too. Hmmmmmm

     

    The Fed also openly raised the maximum allotment cap for reverse repos -- per counterparty -- per day over the past several months:
    December 20, 2013 -- $1B cap per counterparty per day raised to $3B
    January 29, 2014 -- $3B cap per counterparty per day raised to $5B
    March 4, 2014 -- $5B cap per counterparty per day raised to $7B
    17 Mar, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2201) | Send Message
     
    Did Russia Just Move Its Treasury Holdings Offshore?

     

    http://on.wsj.com/1i9SafO

     

    Putin is always one step ahead.
    14 Mar, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    Probably moved it all to Cypress.....
    14 Mar, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2201) | Send Message
     
    Another interesting perspective:

     

    Falling Into Putin's Trap

     

    http://bit.ly/1fMZDSz

     

    "Annexing Crimea is not an end in itself for the Kremlin, nor is partitioning Ukraine. These are just means to a more ambitious end. The Kremlin’s intervention in Crimea and involvement in the destabilization of southeastern Ukraine exemplifies the Putin Doctrine, formulated by the Kremlin in 2012­–­13. One of the goals of this doctrine is to find ways to reproduce the traditional Russian state and Putin’s regime, and to respond to new domestic and international challenges. This doctrine is based on three premises: Russia is a “unique” civilization and must contain the demoralized West; Russia can only exist as a galactic center, around which orbit satellite-statelets; Russia is the civilizational pillar whose mission is to defend “traditional values” globally."
    16 Mar, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    Re: Reverse Repos from FRED-

     

    http://bit.ly/1ipK9Ey

     

    May be a little clearer. I've got a headache.

     

    WT
    15 Mar, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    I think I figured out where those missing Bitcoins and Russian treasury holdings are-

     

    http://bbc.in/1ipP9Jk

     

    WT
    15 Mar, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2507) | Send Message
     
    Re:(SLW)

     

    FWIW- http://bit.ly/1ipQS1e
    15 Mar, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    I see Copper and Silver sending nearly diametrically opposed signals. With the widespread holding of copper as an investment metal (though it is of course not considered an asset class like Gold or a precious metal like silver, platinum, etc.), the historic differences between the two metals SHOULD be narrowing instead of growing wider. Silver has NOT lost its wide industrial application (unlike Gold, where much of its role has shifted to asset class bullion from industrial metal consumption), so this is something of a mystery.

     

    I attribute the odd behavior to the frequent manipulation which occurs with gold and silver, as nation states and their myrmidons meddle with the markets.
    15 Mar, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1hoLFDX

     

    China says they are further liberalizing the yuan trading by doubling the size of the permissible band (from 1% to 2%, ie, tight laser beam to slightly less tight laser beam).

     

    I take this to mean they plan to push the yuan down 2% soon, and beat their naive new trading partners who have promised to trade in yuan over the head with it.

     

    With the Fed supporting the dollar (as we have seen with the reverse repo affaire discussed above), this would be a logical step for China and their US$ tethered yuan.
    16 Mar, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    http://reut.rs/1fMQQzZ

     

    China's primary target. And as the article details, Japan's leadership is every bit as woebegone and useless as ours, though for different reasons.

     

    Overlay what China plans to do to Japan with Japan's own steps toward zero growth, and the new government seems bent on committing economic seppuku.
    16 Mar, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Look at cell phone company trends. Looks good for Samsung. http://bit.ly/1d4mmKO
    16 Mar, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    $10 million Whiskey private equity fund to launch:
    http://bloom.bg/NmXXna
    17 Mar, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): Foot in the door ... "Capstone Receives First C200 Order in United Kingdom for Royal Air Force Base"

     

    CHP application - I'm guessing England doesn't need the "cooling", which would've been a CCHP application..

     

    http://bit.ly/1g2ArIX

     

    HardToLove
    17 Mar, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, HTL. Had not looked yet for CPST news and was wondering why its share price was up in wake of Crimea developments and increasing probability of economic sanctions against Russia.
    17 Mar, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    If anyone wants an update about any MLPs, I have Wells Fargo's 29 page March MLP Outlook.

     

    Right now, Wells' top picks are (ATLS), (CMLP), (ETE), (QEPM), and (WMB).

     

    Oddly, I own none of these.

     

    So far this year, MLPs have lagged the overall market. Boardwalk Pipeline ((BWP) cutting their distribution (announced Feb. 10) has played a major roll in the underperformance of this sector.

     

    But Wells is still positive for 2014, and expects a median return of 13% for the balance of this year.
    17 Mar, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    Little tip about gold miners. Almost all gold miners also mine copper, and use the copper proceeds to help determine the all-in costs for mining gold. So as copper prices plunge, the cost, the way miners account for mining gold, actually goes up.

     

    In the case of New Gold, with 80 million pounds of annual copper production and about 100,000 ounces of gold production, if the copper price falls by just 10 cents the company’s revenue falls by $8 million. But the way that the company reports its costs what actually happens is that New Gold's New Afton’s mine production costs increase by $80 per ounce.
    17 Mar, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Good point, Maya. This applies to many miners with mixed deposits (the majority of miners, overall). Other important byproducts include lead (often associated with silver), zinc, tin, moly, and so forth. Now, just as a thought, is there a certain very predatory country seeking to build a massive gold stockpile and currently suspected of lurking to snap up a lot of struggling mining operations, particularly gold mining operations, that has a lot of muscle in the copper market?

     

    Just a thought.
    17 Mar, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9627) | Send Message
     
    Exactly what I was thinking, trip. China is purposely letting the price of copper fall, or better, enhancing copper's fall, so that they can buy more gold at a cheaper price, and also buy gold mining companies for less if copper still had a 3+ handle, or a 4+ handle back in 2011.

     

    Of course, China has some bond issues, and the Chinese oligarchs have determined that by letting a solar company default on a billion dollar bond (the first ever domestic default in China), that copper prices would plunge, forcing up all-in costs for gold miners, making junior miners less attractive for investment via buying shares, while also making takeovers cheaper to do.

     

    BTW: China has for years had corporations buy and store copper as collateral for low interest loans. So as more defaults happen, copper may plunge even more.

     

    Just incredible how much a solar company bond default has affected the price of copper.

     

    Brilliant stuff, in my opinion.
    17 Mar, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1kXlvOb

     

    Japan is going the opposite way for solar, with a big LI subsidy that could mean big things for the Japanese solar and LI industry. Could this boost copper somewhat as well? Particularly if, as I expect, we see similar sweet LI storage subsidies from Washington and Brussels?

     

    The game is afoot...
    17 Mar, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7939) | Send Message
     
    Warehouses full of copper used as collateral in China could be getting liquidated now causing the price plunge. This will result in less demand from copper mines so less production which will mean less silver and gold produced which will push those prices up while the copper price plunges. JMHO
    17 Mar, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    China does have a lot of copper stored away here and there, but the nature of the investment (and the strong government interest at both ends of the stockpiling) leads me to think these stores are not being sold into the market UNLESS Beijing WANTS them to be sold. What's important here is to determine WHY China's overlords want the price of Copper to drop.

     

    I would also hesitate to extend any sort of trend analysis based upon this. It is all too easy to mistake a geopolitical operation for a free market condition...
    19 Mar, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    GE making a comeback

     

    GE in $660M deal to build locomotives for South African rail company
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    17 Mar, 03:03 PM Reply Like