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  • QuickChat#224, February 14, 2012 226 comments
    Feb 14, 2012 10:32 AM

    "Gamer's End" by stan bruns
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Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

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  • QuickChat
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Comment from prior QC by Robert.B.Ferguson:

     

    One more quarter of contraction and the EZ reccession will be official. Thus we can expect news next quarter that expansion was unbeleivable in the EZ. Even if Rome and Athens are burning.
    14 Feb 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • QuickChat
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Please remember to thumb this QC, if you find it useful.
    14 Feb 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Happy Valentine's Day !

     

    Disclosures: Long love. Short overpriced holiday cards, meals and flowers.
    14 Feb 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Jon, Springer: Greetings. Ditto! How goes your current adventure?
    14 Feb 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Greetings RBF!

     

    Current adventure going pretty well. A bit hectic until my first cancelled meeting today (surprised I got this far without a cancellation). Will article and blog at length in the month after I get back when I'll have time to write about it. The cold weather is really manageable (I actually brought a jacket that is, at times, "too warm" - goose down). Interesting site visit yesterday. More contacts. Ooops, my "ride" just got here...
    14 Feb 2012, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Jon, Springer: Greetings. Good luck and God speed.
    15 Feb 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Capstone Turbine (CPST) is expanding it's presence along the PACRIM with the first installation in the Philippines. http://yhoo.it/xqsIoV
    14 Feb 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2358) | Send Message
     
    rbf: The "fermented agricultural wastes" gas producing market is huge. Finding a reliable and cost effective way to turn the odd mix of digester gasses into electricity has always been a hurdle. The microturbine is close to ideal because it will accept a significant amount of organic sulfur gasses without complaint.

     

    The other big problem is the cost of the infrastructure for the digester and related equipment. Concrete tanks with rubberized fabric domes over them seem of reasonable cost. I wish I knew more about the microbial tech involved.
    15 Feb 2012, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    I'm not an expert either so I can't help with that angle. I'm long (CPST) along with a few others here. H.T.Love may have more information on the subject. I do like the company and it's prospects for off the grid electrical production and possible integration into the grid in some areas. I expect price appreciation on the stock to begin advancing fairly soon but it's been a looooong wait. LOL.
    15 Feb 2012, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10556) | Send Message
     
    1.8 deceased people still on the voting rolls, and 2.7 million people have active registrations in more than one state.

     

    http://on.msnbc.com/zE...
    14 Feb 2012, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    I consider those to be almost ridiculously conservative estimates. ACORN by themselves will double those numbers (probably in LA alone).

     

    Its the Chicago way. Cemetaries have elected more mobsters there than any political party ever will.
    14 Feb 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Including JFK by some accounts.
    14 Feb 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    A dissatisfied share holder wants an inordinate amount of control at Yahoo. (YHOO). http://yhoo.it/wPl0Zf
    14 Feb 2012, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2383) | Send Message
     
    Kyle Bass is one hedge fund manager I have often found worthwhile listening to. As of 12/31/11 he sold out almost all of his long positions and bought large positions of index put to his portfolio -- very bearish indeed: http://bit.ly/znVkxq
    14 Feb 2012, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for tracking Kyle, Mercy.
    14 Feb 2012, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    I see where MCP preferred is at $60 and bid at $56 in pm...any ideas?

     

    I think I would like to take an opening position long.
    15 Feb 2012, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    My buy target has been around $60 for the MCP-PA for a long time.

     

    I am tracking it actively lately, trying to determine a good spot to add a little more (I am long this stock, but light, and would like to have about twice the shares I am holding if I can get them cheap).
    15 Feb 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    You might take a look at BCRX..they just had positive results on preliminary HepC drug.
    15 Feb 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    This on again off again EZ debt crises is being used to spin any market move. Greece is saved! Mr. Market rallies. Greece is doomed! Oh nooooo Mr. Market tanks. Retail investors are Watching and waiting while Da, Boyz steal pennies from each other with HFT, Quant and other means. Low volume amplifies every large trade into a market moving event and spun data like today's manufacturing and home builder's http://bit.ly/wuaVcC ratchets the market up. Can't TPTB just let Greece exit the arena and get this over with already?
    15 Feb 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    exactly right, I first thought Greece would be ok, but every time they match the conditions by passing more austerity bills, the EZ comes back and asks for more. I think it's just a matter of time now until they are out of the EZ. Then the real test comes with Italy & Spain. If it were not for the entire world lending a hand the EZ would be gone.
    15 Feb 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    I think we are almost now at the stage where the only solution to the problem is.......marshmellows.
    15 Feb 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    How many marshmallows would be needed to provide a soft landing in the EZ? Which marshmallow manufacturers are most likely to get the contracts? Questions questions questions.
    15 Feb 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2358) | Send Message
     
    Jeff: As in toasting over the fire?
    OOPS !! that one fell in. Oh well, there are several more still on the stick.

     

    OK, it's sick humor, but I'm getting weary of the political shuckin' and jivin' going on just to keep the lid on a few more months. Do the EUrocrats REALLY think the horse will sing?

     

    I am standing by at a safe distance. I hope.
    15 Feb 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    3:19 PM The Troika will need a permanent presence in Greece with authority before the bailout can proceed, an EU source tells Dow Jones. Additionally, an escrow account will need to be set up to ensure rescue funds are used to pay debt
    15 Feb 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Thus the kabuki dance enters another act.
    15 Feb 2012, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Well, the EZ is not the only potential trouble spot - check the S & P 500 (SPX).

     

    Today closed below the rising channel on rising volume the last two days (both down days, but yesterday's close "hung" on the support).

     

    But that's the good news.

     

    The bad news is we have an "outside reversal" negative.

     

    Combined with rising volume, that says bad ju-ju will follow, normally.

     

    As mentioned, I exited 1/3 of my (UPRO) position and the other 2/3 are partly protected by a short covered call position.

     

    I guess a run towards SPX $1335 or so should certainly be expected.

     

    I'll have to check news cycle for tomorrow and futures in the A.M. If it looks right, might try my old nemesis (SPXU) again with a pre-market entry. Hm, maybe I should decide and act tonight.

     

    Decisions, decisions. If I do it, I'll at least be over-hedged and remain "neutral". That almost sounds attractive! :-))

     

    Uh, does that mean I'd be "neutered"? =>8-O

     

    HardToLove
    15 Feb 2012, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2151) | Send Message
     
    If you eat some bad ju-ju beans and walk past an ignition source, you might end up neutered. ;-)
    15 Feb 2012, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    (SPX), (SPXU): Opened 2x380 positions @ $10.64.

     

    xxxx <-- fingers crossed.

     

    The news cycle for tomorrow offers lots of risk: jobless claims, PPI and core, housing starts, Philly Phed.

     

    But overnight, should be some up and down and if Asia follows our action today, they should trade down, hit the futures to match and possibly allow me to exit before market open tomorrow if it's looking really nasty.

     

    With my history with this thing, I might get smacked again, but at least it'll be a small smack.

     

    I now assume the lotus position and begin intoning "oooom", "oooom", ...

     

    HardToLove
    15 Feb 2012, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2358) | Send Message
     
    I exited a tech stock (VSH) with a small profit and a pipeline (WMB, for income) stock today. Luckily before the afternoon dip. Cash is looking better each day this week.

     

    Both GE and Eaton (ETN) are down today and Tuesday. Eaton by about 2%, GE by 1.2%. Given the size of the two megacorps, that's not pocket change. Both have significant EZ exposure.

     

    I think I have some other cleaning out of laggard stocks to do soon.
    15 Feb 2012, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Well, Dr. Copper is ailing. Marketwatch reports BHP Billiton down 1.9% in early Aussie trading after copper futures lower in NY for the fourth straight session.

     

    Aussie S&P down 1.12% now, but an early drop from the open is not unusual. Need to wait 'til later in the session to get a decent read.

     

    One thing not discussed recently is the ECRI leading indicators predicted a recession around mid-2012. I've not seen anything change. Anybody hear othrwise?

     

    Combined with market propensity to begin a drop very late EOQ 1 or early Q2, I'm working towards a heavy cash position to be achieved late March or early April, depending on what things look like then.

     

    I'm currently running 50%-70% cash, other than short-term stuff like the UPRO or SPXU stuff.

     

    The only new stuff I might do is some trading blocks for AXPW and CPST.

     

    CPST should be looking pretty reasonable 2-3 quarters out I think. AXPW should start getting aperiodic PR and news that should start to bump it.

     

    Still a couple very small UQM positions and NVAX.

     

    That's all I'm going to be doing with other short-term trades filling the time up. Maybe some options too.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Feb 2012, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    Have a position in TVIX. Up about 12 percent, but that can be erased in an hour of trading. I am thinking that we are due for a correction....
    15 Feb 2012, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    I'm in there too Jeff. It's working! ...and the uglier the market gets, the prettier the prize for TVIXer's. I let it ride tonight. I typically don't do that, but since it's up and I don't foresee anything happening tonight that will dramatically improve things....
    15 Feb 2012, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2383) | Send Message
     
    Jeff, TVIX has been a good play of late -- congrats on the gain.

     

    I have been in and out (intra-day) on SDS several times over the past couple of weeks. Today was great to be in @ 16.45 and out @ 16.75. After getting burned on FAZ for holding too long last year -- the quick day scalp suits my risk tolerance better (especially with all of the surprise BOT attacks!)
    15 Feb 2012, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    Huge volume on TVIX, VXX, UVXY, QID, and XIV over the last couple of days. New record high on volume for TVIX today. Yesterday was also a record high.

     

    http://tinyurl.com/7fv...
    15 Feb 2012, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    TVIX was good to me lately too...I always leave $$$ on the table (no nerve here, it moves too fast) I did really well yesterday, did not play it today...I will leave it to you guys till things sort out. Things could really get nasty here. We lost Financials Mon-Tues, Apple today, Probably more tech tomorrow...that's 3/4 of the main drivers of late. APPL breakdown really worries me. Are bonds next?

     

    I closed out Southern Power (SO) in my long term account. They will probably dilute for the new nuclear plant...don't want to be there now, and I am past x-dividend date. this also gives dry powder for whatever comes too.
    15 Feb 2012, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    AAPL "breakdown" is just profit taking IMO. AAPL is where Da Boyz move their money to when things get ugly. It's a very good safe haven, with more cap appreciation than you could ever dream of in most "risk-off" investments.
    16 Feb 2012, 02:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    The one Tue. was impressive: SPX +0.7% in 30 minutes 15:30-16:00. A classic "stick save" that regained almost all of the losses for the day.

     

    I wish I'd been smart enough to add SPX Wed. morning.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2012, 03:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    LT: I think U.S. treasuries and bonds will be OK until the EZ settles out (target-rich environment for a long while yet). Just like the USD, having a another strong run since Nov., the bonds and treasuries are still where the huddled masses come during times of stress.

     

    USD has run from a close of $78.68 2/8 to $80.14 ATM.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2012, 03:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2383) | Send Message
     
    In pre-market at 8:30 am FAZ buyers to FAS buyers is running 6:1. Rarely is the ratio so high -- financial market jitters are alive and well, although US futures are now slightly green.
    16 Feb 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Yep. Green from slightly better than expected unemployment claims and housing starts. But the SPY reaction, although up, is weak on the volume.

     

    I hate that - I've got to wait and see whether I should exit SPXU or will the options expiration week volatility come into play and drive it down as folks adjust the call and put positions.

     

    If I'd noted the huge put call volume yesterday morning I would've entered SPXU in the A.M. But I forgot to check it!

     

    Won't forget next time.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2012, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • DaLatin
    , contributor
    Comments (1522) | Send Message
     
    At 20% there was a madatory rebalance....... Stay long AAPL
    18 Feb 2012, 04:31 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    DL,

     

    Good point! And yes, you have to be long AAPL. That's the best value in town; bar none I think. What other company has fully 30% of their market cap in CASH?
    18 Feb 2012, 07:06 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (850) | Send Message
     
    Anyone in ACPW? I accumulated a bit under .70; the trend doesn't look favorable.
    15 Feb 2012, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    NSC fell off a cliff yesterday....Dry ships up? Why? (I guess the interview with NAT CEO yesterday?)

     

    anyone see a bargain here ?
    16 Feb 2012, 07:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    I'm holding off on NAT - as he said, "bumping along the bottom". The Intertanko indicative spot rates for his suexmax has weakened *substantially* since my prior post mentioned how strong they were. Currently (2/15), rate is 17,253/day and has been weakening the last month.

     

    Weakened oil demand as the EZ and U.S. weakens further should eventually filter through to Asia, since they won't have anybody growing to sell to, and drive spot rates even lower.

     

    There's lots of capacity under longer-term contracts too, so the opportunities for NAT to acquire more tankers on the cheap may be reduced. And new-builds are way down so no opportunities there to pick up new ships for just balance of completion costs.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >LT ... Shipping is scary right now. Too many ships & too many older ones. Sometime in the next few quarters someone(s) is going to BK. I'm holding off until the end of the summer doldrums.
    16 Feb 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    I'm long Dry Ships (DRYS). Got in around $5 and averaged down. Got a bonus from the spin off of Ocean Rig (UDW). I'm not adding here though. The Baltic Dry Index is in the crapper so I'm looking to reenter the index ETF (SEA).
    16 Feb 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Cramer interviewed the CEO of NAT last night...
    16 Feb 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6212) | Send Message
     
    Cramer interviewing anyone reminds me of one of my all time favorite movie scenes. http://tinyurl.com/3cnhhl

     

    Watch it all the way through :) This was Richard Widmark’s screen debut!
    16 Feb 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • DaLatin
    , contributor
    Comments (1522) | Send Message
     
    I am up 2 points on NMM and staying long. This company has showed great skill an is paying a nice yield even as their competitors cutting.
    18 Feb 2012, 04:33 AM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    markets nervous. TVIX up 6 percent a couple of minutes before Philly Fed Index comes out.
    16 Feb 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2383) | Send Message
     
    Eric Parnell's latest post is worth a read: http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    His bottom line -- in light of the 2011 trending similarities and potential scenarios -- best course is to "Stay nimble and stay hedged."

     

    After his posting this am his factoids/observations became even more weighty when SA pointed out another "potential" similarity to the 2011 trend line:

     

    9:35 AM The Dow's 20% rally off October lows is finally pushing investors back into the stock market, as ICI data shows domestic equity funds raked in ~$1.9B in the week ended Feb. 8, the biggest weekly inflows since April 20, 2011 - only days before stocks topped out and began last summer's swoon.
    16 Feb 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Mercy, Jimenez: Greetings. Thanks for the link. Really good article with allot of food for thought.
    16 Feb 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Good stuff mercy. Thanks! Kind of confirms what we've been thinking...
    16 Feb 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Sheet! ITRI has been on my short list to look into for a couple of weeks, but I never got there. Today, they blow out earnings and are up 20%! Guess we missed that one and likely won't see another good entry point for a while. HATE when my own prioritization, or lack there of (also known as procrastination) screws me.
    16 Feb 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    I know I am dumb, but how can the mkt be up 80, s&p up7, and TVIX up over $1 ? How does this thing work?

     

    I have no position in TVIX yesterday or today.
    16 Feb 2012, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2383) | Send Message
     
    The trend is your friend on TVIX -- but with 2x leverage -- gains can be quick and so can losses. Here are some articles for some perspective: http://bit.ly/zePbL2
    16 Feb 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Playing volatility requires extreme agility and constant attention. Like most day trading it just gives me a headache.
    16 Feb 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    3:09 PM Might the ECB be swapping out of its Greek bonds for new ones ahead of the weekend be an attempt to front run a default, asks Vince Cignarella. The swap will have the ECB, holding paper created under English law, i.e. not subject to losses from the imposition of a collective action clause (CAC). Monday could get interesting. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
    16 Feb 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    LT: Greetings. Good catch! Sure looks like risk mitigation to me. Is the Kabuki dance going to finally end. Stay tuned for the next exciting episode of "As the Stomach Turns.". I suggest you watch it before lunch.
    16 Feb 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Added (LYSDY) @ $1.30 a few minutes ago. They should actually show profits by the end of the year or early in 2013.
    16 Feb 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    I agree. The stock should be ticking off imortant milestones all year during 2012 (probably starting June when we see LAMP construction completed and first feed of Mount Weld concentrate).
    16 Feb 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2358) | Send Message
     
    Happytalk on Bloomberg about reasons for "things getting better". To me, US markets looks toppy and borderline euphoric. Several semiconductors up 2+ percent today. TXN close to it's 2008 high!

     

    I took some more tech off the table (ASML) and have close in limit SELL orders on more. There just isn't any good reason for great optimism and market peaks without reasons are traps.

     

    Separate subject: I signed up for SS retirement yesterday. I'm only 62.5 years old but I think that waiting for years to get more per month is risking the guvmint adding all investment income to the "means test" for taxing SS payments. Politically it sounds good; those with lots of money in the "bank" don't NEED that money. It should go those in real NEED. Ignoring the fact that SS is a retirement system. But taxing has never been a rational undertaking, just a taking.
    16 Feb 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    SHB: I agree with your choice to elect early SS benefits. The alternative amounts to "betting against the house", and its a rigged game regardless.

     

    I am also moving more toward cash, but I continue to look for "exceptions" that might make major moves anyway...

     

    Political systems that focus on "need" should acknowledge Karl Marx as their ideological source... At least they would then be honest Marxists.
    16 Feb 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    For similar reasons, I signed up last Nov.

     

    Be prepared for even more AARP and Medicare flyers in the mail - apparently our government decided its in our best interests if they sell our data to for-profit enterprises.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    I prefer Groucho Marx. He really was as honest as anyone else and didn't inflict any damage.
    16 Feb 2012, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2358) | Send Message
     
    HTL: I didn't realize it was possible to get any more AARP sludge then I already get :-)

     

    What a great marketing idea; pretending you are an organization to help older folks (charging dues!) while you are actually set up to skin them. Brilliant marketing "engineering".
    16 Feb 2012, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • DaLatin
    , contributor
    Comments (1522) | Send Message
     
    The " market " looks out 6 to 12 months and the "street" now knows the election issue is over. No change at the WH and 5 years of gridlock is the food the "street" loves..........
    18 Feb 2012, 04:36 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8680) | Send Message
     
    Do you all remember the story about the US bonds being smuggled across the Italian border. 134 BILLION worth, by 2 Japanese folks. The story just disappeared.

     

    WELL HERE IS AN UPDATE AND IS IT A DOOZIE.

     

    YOU HAVE GOT TO READ. IT GETS GOING 6 OR SO PARAGRAPHS DOWN THE PAGE.

     

    DO NOT MISS THIS!!!! BE SURE TO PUT ON YOUR COPPER COLANDER FIRST ITS GOING TO BLOW YOUR MINDS!!!

     

    http://bit.ly/wZT4sw
    16 Feb 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2151) | Send Message
     
    I ordered a box of tin foil hats from HTL. When they get here I can finish reading the rest.
    16 Feb 2012, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8680) | Send Message
     
    Talk about timing. Today they find 6 trillion of supposedly fake treasury bearer bonds. In Chicago fed boxes. Somthing is up.

     

    http://bit.ly/zsbcoo
    17 Feb 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    <Puts on a tin foil hat>

     

    Supposedly fake....... :)
    17 Feb 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8680) | Send Message
     
    I would advise a colander. Its more durable. Can put twigs in the holes to camo yourself too...just incase the black helos show up around your house. LOL

     

    Here is the BBC story on it.

     

    http://bbc.in/yHSU6c
    17 Feb 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Ah, but all these are poor substitutes for a nice, solid, Farraday box. Proof against EMP attack, too. Then you just need the collander or tin cap for "mobile operations" working "outside the box".
    17 Feb 2012, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8680) | Send Message
     
    I knew someone was looking in my basement window. It was you TB!!!

     

    Another story at ZH on the "supposedly" fake bonds.

     

    http://bit.ly/wdzR1g
    17 Feb 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    Germany knows it's pushed far enough (for now)

     

    Germany Seeks to Avoid Two-Step Vote on Greek Aid
    http://bloom.bg/xmZBND
    17 Feb 2012, 04:28 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    Every now and then something good comes along....this may have potential.

     

    DNA Robots Programmed to Kill Cancer Cells, Harvard Study Shows

     

    http://bloom.bg/xf9OWv
    17 Feb 2012, 04:34 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    We will never see cheap oil in most of our lifetimes:
    Economy in the pitts...oil $90-100
    Economy better/good...oil higher

     

    Oil Trades Near Six-Week High
    http://bloom.bg/yHwaLQ
    17 Feb 2012, 04:40 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    Buried in this article is the true meat of the crisis's...Credit Default Swaps....These things have got to go. There is estimated $400 trillion of them...Until they are gone, we can't do what needs to be done. However much I wish we could.IMO Greece means nothing, it's the other $399T that counts.

     

    Lehman Crisis Vets Warn On Pushing Greece
    http://bloom.bg/zvvabA
    17 Feb 2012, 04:57 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    LT: Greetings. I agree and have said so many times here and elsewhere. These items are nothing short of weapons of financial destruction. Especially when you consider that the financial entities, sovereign wealth funds and individuals with deep pockets can buy such insurance with out a requirement to have a insurable interest. That concept begs for manipulation and smells of corruption. Theoretically you or I could buy CDS against a debt we don't own and then sabotage the debtor bringing about a default to collect on the default that we engineered. What could possibly go wrong?
    17 Feb 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    Ah ... The joys of living in a deregulated world.
    17 Feb 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (850) | Send Message
     
    Spot on, DRich...
    17 Feb 2012, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    Must read: sooner or later, if they keep this crap up, Google will be the greatest short of all time.

     

    Google reportedly ignoring Safari users' privacy settings to better track its ads

     

    http://bit.ly/zfhkNN
    17 Feb 2012, 05:07 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    With Hedge Funds & PE going private or closing...it this corporate Privatizing going to be the next wave? (remember buy-backs reduce the shares for us to trade)

     

    Alibaba Said to Plan Privatizing Alibaba.com
    http://bloom.bg/yAr6li
    17 Feb 2012, 05:11 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    I love this one ! LOL

     

    Want to make a fortune, figure out how to play the "Student Loan Debt".

     

    Jobless lawyers sue their own law schools
    Class-action lawsuits accuse schools of inflating employment prospects and salary data. 'A terrible investment
    http://yhoo.it/wN2oF6
    17 Feb 2012, 05:25 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Cannibalism. Predictable - occurs when the population explodes and overpopulation occurs (so do other nasty things, but cannibalism works for me). Population ultimately stabilizes after sufficient individuals and groups are devoured by their own species...

     

    Or extinction occurs.

     

    We might get lucky...
    17 Feb 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    Target knows if your pregnant or not....

     

    Another Privacy article...re: Target, Google & News
    http://bit.ly/xYikx0
    17 Feb 2012, 05:41 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    5:45 AM More details on the emergency-planning list BofA (BAC) submitted to the Fed last year: In the event of a market shock or severe downturn that necessitates capital raising, BofA would consider selling its retail-branch network in Texas and its U.S. Trust wealth-management unit, though execs might also choose to issue common stock before letting go of key chunks of the business. 1 Comment [Financials]
    17 Feb 2012, 06:18 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    Maybe this is the new trend in health...profit up, revenue down slightly.

     

    7:16 AM LifePoint Hospitals (LPNT): Q4 EPS of $0.78 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $781.3M (+7.4% Y/Y) misses by $119M. (PR) Comment! [Earnings, Healthcare]
    17 Feb 2012, 07:17 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    Just a week or so ago, JPM downgraded CHK to sell, with a target of <$15. With Nat gas at all time lows...are they now into manipulating Nat gas as they have silver, oil on floating storage?

     

    Stifel Nicolaus upgraded Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) from Hold to Buy with a price target of $29.00.
    For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Chesapeake Energy click here. For more ratings news on Chesapeake Energy click here.
    Shares of Chesapeake Energy closed at $23.77 yesterday, with a 52 week range of $20.41-$35.95.
    News Provided by Acquire Media Corporation
    17 Feb 2012, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor (Nasdaq: VRTX) is moving up 7 percent in pre-open trading Friday following disappointing data from Gilead Sciences, Inc. (Nasdaq: GILD) on its Hep-C treatment, showing viral relapse in first month.
    Elswere in the Hep-C space, Idenix Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: IDIX) is down 11% and Achillion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: ACHN) is not trading yet.
    News Provided by Acquire Media Corporation
    17 Feb 2012, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    MCP a play now?

     

    8:08 AM China hikes taxes on the mining of iron ore, tin, and several other minerals - a bid to squeeze smaller, marginal producers out of the business, according to analysts. Tin production looks to be most affected, as the tax will make up a more significant portion of that metal's cost. Comment! [Commodities, Global & FX]
    17 Feb 2012, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    The early signs of massive government sponsored cartelization...

     

    Far advanced in the Chinese rare earth and strategic minerals sector. Given that the largest producers of rare earths also number among the giant iron mining and steel producers...

     

    Predictable.
    17 Feb 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    Does this help or hurt MCP ?

     

    and I totally agree and love your response to the lawyers...it is exactly what I wanted to say but could not find the appropriate words this morning. thanks for stating it so eloquently for me :)
    17 Feb 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    The REE/Strat. Cartel the ChiComs have built will give them short term control of the world markets (and strategic advantages involving geopolitical goals) unless their adversaries (primarily the US and the EU, but also including just about everyone on the planet) take steps to forestall this plan. The recent WTO findings (which do NOT apply to rare earths, though they do apply to other minerals) against China are of doubtful utility in fulfilling any long term "leveling" of the playing field.

     

    Like the doubts expressed over the Greek Tragedy, ie, that even having extracted an agreement to "do better" from the Greek government, the likelihood of long term fulfillment of those goals is highly questionable...

     

    The same sort of logical cycicism should, imo, apply to China's headlong (and seemingly long-planned) creation of government controlled cartels. I believe they will continue along this path, and they have taken steps to create effective political and economic "cover" (the WTO rules have strong set-asides and exceptions to their normal rules for "environmental and safety" concerns, so look for China to drive their cartel dumptruck right through those loopholes).

     

    As for the effect on a single sector, like that of rare earths, China retains the ability to wag the sector like a very small tail on a very large dragon... Short term. But their power has a number of limits. IF the EU and the US actually (vs the many political posturings we have seen thus far) take steps to rebuild their strategic stockpiles of rare earths and strategic minerals, this limits the geopolitical value to some extent. IF the EU and the US support the resurrection of these long-shuttered rare earth mining efforts (MCP in the US for instance, GWMGF in Canada/South Africa/United Kingdom, and TAS in Sweden/EU), once again a balance of power could be achieved.

     

    Thus far the picture is still quite murky. MCP has the potential of being a reliable, low cost supplier, but has very little support from the US government. This means that it is in the usual position of an American company confronting Chinese companies which are NOT actual "corporations", but a nation state posing as such. Where MCP MUST generate profits to survive, the Cartel just has to take measures to undercut them for a few quarters to run them into bankruptcy. This same comment COULD apply to ALL miners and processors in this sector, of course...

     

    The downside from the geopolitical angle for China is that they would have to dump cheap minerals on the world markets (and thus undercut their other geopolitical goals). This would allow competing nation states to take the oversupply to fill up strategic stockpiles, and allow the primary target (Japan's high tech rare earth consumers) to do the same.

     

    So its a double edged sword, or perhaps more precisely a binary equation. China will do what is best for China (and its highly unlikely that profits from the sale of rare earths on the world markets will enter into the computation). Today that appears to be to build a huge and tightly controlled cartel, gaining utter control over their rare earth industry, while keeping world prices for rare earths elevated in order to drive more Japanese (and other) companies to shut down their home facilities and move them to China (along with their proprietory secret technology base).

     

    When it becomes apparent that this goal (absorbing the rare earth tech industry like a gigantic borg cube assimilating alien cultures) has been accomplished, we can expect things to "change".

     

    Anyone who has also been pondering the bizarre goings-on with Lynas' LAMP in Malaysia should consider that there are OTHER measures which a nation state masquerading as a corporation masquerading as a participant in a "free market" can take...

     

    Like using local political parties and fake environmental "emergencies" to attack a potential threat to the geopolitical value of a planetary rare earth monopoly...

     

    So, LT, my best answer as to the impact on MCP (or any other rare earth compnay) of China's Cartelization is that it all revolves around their geopolitical goals. Right now they are looking like they will work in the FAVOR of MCP and the others, at least short to medium term.
    17 Feb 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    What many have suspected coming to pass?
    Data and news don't match up, perhaps.....The headline is a bit over the top though!
    article detailing gasoline delivery and diesel usage indicating something amiss with numbers

     

    http://bit.ly/zaSRBR
    17 Feb 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    Rain,

     

    Interesting chart on gasoline deliveries. Huge drop off. Yet everyone expects the price of gasoline to be over 4 bucks soon at the local pumps. Wonder if there is a refinery that is not online at the moment that is going through some type of maintenance cycle?

     

    The diesel drop off might be due to the milder winter in the north east? Fuel oil used in my furnace here in New York is diesel with a dye added. Dont see any drop off from the AAR report:

     

    http://tinyurl.com/6pb...
    17 Feb 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Seasonal changeover could be involved. The mix formula changes for warm weather.
    17 Feb 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    CNBC has reported that several Northeast refineries have closed because lack of crack spread prevents operations at a profit.

     

    Something to do with Brent vs. WTI pricing and where they get their crude.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Feb 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2383) | Send Message
     
    And today also add shipping delays to 12% refining capacity on Mississippi River after oil spill:

     

    SA:
    11:58 AM The Coast Guard isn't sure how long the Mississippi river will be closed after an oil-spilling barge collision 40 miles upriver from downtown New Orleans. There's no more oil leaking into water now, but the closure - downriver from refineries of MPC, XOM and RDS.A and upriver from those including VLO and COP - may slow shipments out of plants making up 12.4% of U.S. capacity.
    17 Feb 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    This almost sounds like Enron and all the "bad luck" things that happened to jack up the price of electricity for California.
    17 Feb 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2383) | Send Message
     
    Well the refinery capacity bad news keeps piling on:

     

    2/17 SA
    6:26 PM A fire has broken out this hour at BP's Cherry Point refinery - at 230K bpd crude capacity, the largest in Washington state. The refinery's calling for help for its own fire crews from several agencies.
    17 Feb 2012, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Looks like they got it handled alright.

     

    http://usat.ly/w5sWBk

     

    HardToLove
    18 Feb 2012, 06:26 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    We've also had a very mild winter thus far in the northern regions. That means people aren't out starting their car and letting it run for 20 minutes prior to going somewhere. That's a lot of gas!
    18 Feb 2012, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    I won't say what I would like to say: but doing "the right thing" seems impossible for them to do.

     

    Congressional Insider Trading Bill May Still be Flawed
    http://bit.ly/Atfqid
    17 Feb 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    Google on defense on iPhone privacy (MSFT after them)

     

    http://bit.ly/yBnXuv
    17 Feb 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    As the situation in Greece deteriorates further, Moody's announced today that it intends to downgrade 114 European financial institutions and 17 global banks. Hopes that China will buy up EU sovereign debt to help prop up the faltering eurozone may wind up costing the U.S. more than it does China.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    17 Feb 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2358) | Send Message
     
    Has anyone else noticed the interesting USD/YEN action this week?

     

    The dollar has been rising significantly against the Yen since the bank of Japan announced that they will print money with a TARGET of 1% inflation. And so it really begins. The Japanese begin to monitize their debt. If 1% isn't sufficient, can 2% be far behind? What will it take to increase their exports enough to pay the bills? Stay tuned!

     

    I own YCS as a bet on the USD/YEN ratio rising. YCS is highly leveraged, so be careful out there.
    17 Feb 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Be careful with that, SHB. China is the 600 pound currency gorilla lurking in the closet... Japan wants a weaker yen, as you say, to help their exporters, but China wants a STRONGER yen to push Japanese high tech out of Japan and relocate it to China.

     

    And China has a lot of foreign exchange monetary muscle.
    17 Feb 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    CNBC keeps blathering about DOW high only $87 more (about the same as when we opened) and ignoring the fact that $DJT has rolled over since 2/3, dropping from a close of 5368.93 to $5233.10 currently, down 2.53%.

     

    I guess that doesn't matter - only liquidity-driven market gains matter.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Feb 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2358) | Send Message
     
    HTL: I just remind myself that almost all advertisers on the "money talk" channels want TRADING VOLUME. Everything else is a logical result.
    17 Feb 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Well, right now they are talking about it.

     

    Says non-confirmation by transports suggests a 3-5% pullback, based on charts.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Feb 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8680) | Send Message
     
    Bracing for impact. Bonds purchases soaring at primary dealers.

     

    This comment caught my eye.

     

    "The last time we have seen such a dramatic increase in Dealer Bill and Coupon concentration was in early 2009 when the world was ending and when Dealers went from zero Bill holdings to tens of billions in Bill holdings overnight."

     

    http://bit.ly/z2oYCa
    17 Feb 2012, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Maybe that explains reduced volume in the markets?

     

    HardToLove
    17 Feb 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2358) | Send Message
     
    DG, HTL: can you correlate the bond volume with the decrease in stock market sales, as per HTL's comment?
    17 Feb 2012, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    SHB: From what I *think* I've learned, money "rotates" out of one asset class to another, depending on circumstances.

     

    When "fear" is high, the money flows to "safe" assets - bonds, treasuries, maybe consumer staples or commodities too if the fear is inflation-related.

     

    When fear is not high the big money worries more about returns *on* money, rather than *of* money. It flows to higher-yielding things like equities and still commodities if there's thoughts that inflation will be high.

     

    Add in that retail investors are, mostly, staying away from the stock market and you have lower volumes. E.g. ETrade reported DARTs (Daily Average Revenue Trades) down 20% YoY.

     

    Another type of rotation also occurs - seasonal, e.g. sector rotation. Consumer staples get inflows when uncertainty about GDP growth is high. Gold-related generally late in the year because that's when India and other places have gold buying, etc.

     

    Looking at a few sectors for big gains and losses, we can see such as 13 weeks vs. S&P has the biggest loser in Consumer Non-cyclical, lagging the SPX by 4.24% while Consumer Cyclical is ahead 10.98% and Conglomerates +27.31%.

     

    On a shorter time-frame for just absolute change in 5 days, Transportation is down 0.10%, Basic Materials down 0.07 while Conglomerates are +2.31% and Consumer Cyclical +4.44%.

     

    So, generally, "safe assets" get the money when there's a lot of uncertainty and risky assets get the money when everything seems more copasetic.

     

    HTH,
    Hardtolove
    18 Feb 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2358) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL. Kinda what I understood, but much more detailed. You been studyin' :-)
    19 Feb 2012, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Why should anyone wonder why we are broke?http://bit.ly/wMyfpi How much does a federal lunch inspector get paid?
    17 Feb 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2865) | Send Message
     
    Apparently not enough.
    17 Feb 2012, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    I guess we can retrain the 130,000 troops we're drawing down to be lunch inspectors. Is Michelle, Obama the chief of the lunch police? What are the qualifications to be a lunch inspector? How soon will they be stationed at your favorite restaurant? It's bad enough that you must ask for salt and pepper now instead of having it on your table as part of the normal setting.
    17 Feb 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2865) | Send Message
     
    I guess I could have said instead that they're apparently not paid enough to get it right. The schools in my area have gone through various austerity programs designed to "cut costs", meanwhile the kids report the lunches that cost the same are getting nastier by the day. Used to be free to the school districts back in the day of commodities programs, and good to boot. Now we get a bunch of bean counters who go out and buy the cheapest crap they can find and serve it to our kids to save money, and then hide the water cups and try to sell them soft drinks . All the while there were those of us who thought the whole idea of having the money in the first place was so the kids would eat well like we always did. I suspect most of the 130,000 can figure this out without specialized training. I don't care how much they're paid as long as they get it right, and right now they're not..
    17 Feb 2012, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2865) | Send Message
     
    Here is a link to the history of the Surplus Commodity Program which is no doubt more informative than my off the cuff screed.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/zFkEMA
    17 Feb 2012, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2865) | Send Message
     
    I was curious about the sponsor of the bill, Sen Richard B. Russell.

     

    http://bit.ly/wGgSqT
    17 Feb 2012, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    What's wrong with Washington?

     

    ...http://fxn.ws/xjlTgR
    18 Feb 2012, 01:40 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Through all parties involved in its manufacturing process, the Volt has received over $350 mil PER CAR, in Fed and state subsidies. Then, of course, there are subsides paid directly to the customer who buys one. Then GM turns around and puts a $40k price tag on it? Hell, the car has already been paid for 8,750+ times! With that in mind, I'm surprised GM isn't selling them for $60K. After all, the fewer you sell, the greater the net profit, right?
    18 Feb 2012, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • DaLatin
    , contributor
    Comments (1522) | Send Message
     
    Obama just raised the sub on the Volt to $ 10 K.. No more 8,000..

     

    Fiat has the right idea. There passing on electric an working on a nat gas car. Electric cars are today's Edsell..

     

    Chrysler will win big when nat gas is the fuel of choice...

     

    It should be as refiners are buying US oil at 70 bucks/ an selling the gasoline overseas. That is capitalism working as it should. The US has been spoiled too long and if LA an EU will pay more sell it there !
    18 Feb 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Saber-rattling starts anew.

     

    "Iran sends warships into Mediterranean Sea"

     

    http://bit.ly/zpZ4lp

     

    HardToLove
    18 Feb 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    Was expecting something to happen last month regarding Iran.
    18 Feb 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • Economic Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (2865) | Send Message
     
    Interesting how one's battle over resources is another's battle over market share.
    18 Feb 2012, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    (SPX): "Scary Movie 2" now playing at a market near you.

     

    Pull up a daily bar or line chart of SPX that includes 11/5/2010 through today.

     

    Compare the visual patterns for 11/5/10-2/18/11 to the pattern for 12/7/11-2/17.

     

    Look familiar? Well it certainly ought to Ollie!

     

    From the close of 11/29/10, $$1,187.76 to the close of $1,343.01 on 2/18/11, there was a rise of 13.0708%.

     

    Apply this figure to the close of 12/19/11, $1,205.35 and we get ... ~$1,362.90.

     

    We closed Friday, 2/17/12 at $1,361.23.

     

    Similar visuals, similar durations, similar percentage rises, and even similar times of the year.

     

    Now look what happened through August 9 2011.

     

    Near-term, if we get a repeat, we might be getting near to a re-trace down. The first move down after 2/18/11 was small and we recovered about 2/3rds (visual estimate) of it. But through 3/16/11 we had drop from the close of 2/18 of 6.4% to close at $1,256.88.

     

    After that it was up and down through most of the summer with a peak close 4/29/11 of $1,363.61 that eventually culminated in the low close of $1,198.38 on 8/5/11. From that peak to the low was a fall of ~12%.

     

    Now, I'm not concerned about this last move yet - too far in the future and lots of thing could change between now and then.

     

    But I am concerned about the near-term because the recent highs have begun to diverge from the resistance of the rising channel SPX had been in and it is nearing the high of 5/2/11 (from which we made our initial drop in that first pattern), price is near my experimental upper Bollinger, RSI is barely into overbought, Williams %R is overbought and just rolled over at -8.33, and stochastic is trying to get overbought right now.

     

    Now we have Iran rattling sabers again. ISTM that whichever way Greece goes, we are primed for a re-trace. If Greece delivers good news, a spike up and sell off ("Sell the news") might be seen as folks take profit. If it's bad news, that's the excuse everybody needs for the re-trace everybody has been expecting for so long.

     

    Of course, there's no way to tell how it might play out. But with all the free fed money, quants, HFT, ETFs and low volume driving the market so far, we have no strength showing. SPY volume on Friday, a traditionally strong day going into a 3-day weekend per Art Cashin, the SPY volume was the lowest since 2/13, Monday.

     

    So, as they used to say on "Hill Street Blues", "Hey, let's be careful out there".

     

    If you have any positions that tend to trend with SPX, heads up.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    18 Feb 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    The three legs down in your analysis were all precipitated by a specific events. There was the Tsunami in Japan back in March, then in June there was the expiration of QE2, and finally the big one in July was the gridlock in Congress over the debt limit as well as Europe.

     

    Market appears to be topped out and volume for those inverse leveraged ETFs is very high right now. So there are a lot of folks out there that are hedging for some down side. There are also lots of world events that could trigger a leg down. No need to repeat what those are.

     

    I would say that the propensity for the market to go down has a greater probability than for it to go up.
    18 Feb 2012, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5187) | Send Message
     
    HTL - I had noticed the first leg of the similarities in some individual stocks that I follow. I hadn't given the rest of the analysis a lot of thought just yet. I did add a comment to my last 3 or 4 articles to the effect that we could see some short-term weakness soon. Thanks for the superb head up!

     

    BTW, I just wanted to stop by and say hello to all my long lost friend (you're not lost, just me). My wife just called to let me know that she could not get home because of a fire at the bottom of the mountain. There's only one way in and out. I plan on listening to the local radio station for the rest of the evening after I gather a few items and put them in my backpack. I doubt there's any reason for concern, but just in case I wanted to let ya'll know that I've enjoyed the community of 'gades a great deal. I'll add a post again later once I hear what the real scoop is! I hope I'm just messing with ya!
    18 Feb 2012, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5187) | Send Message
     
    Fires out! Since Jeff brought up the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, has anyone heard an update lately on the potential eruption from under the reactor due to leakage? I know DG was on top of this a while back.
    18 Feb 2012, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Good news K202! Glad that worked out well for you!
    19 Feb 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6212) | Send Message
     
    Iran Stops Oil Sales To British, French Companies
    19 Feb 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    NOW its starting to get ramped up. Fill your gas tanks before the end of the week!
    19 Feb 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm. Predictable. As Europe snails toward an Iranian oil embargo, Iran reciprocates. Utterly unsurprising.

     

    Now, if they are just refusing to sell oil for euros or dollars, and demanding gold, THAT would be a headline.

     

    The Arab League oil producers have vowed to offset any disruption in supply caused by Iran. Given Iran's slapdash efficiency in producing oil, this appears quite doable.
    19 Feb 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5187) | Send Message
     
    And what will keep a middle man, say another Arab producing nation, from re-selling output from Iran for a piece of the action? I realize that Iran doesn't have many friends in the region, but surely one or more would be willing to act as an oil broker to buy/sell Iranian oil if the profit were enough.
    19 Feb 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    It appears that all of OG's instablogs have disappeared. Those with comments to those blogs will notice their comments are also gone.

     

    Many of the blogs lost are, of course, QuickChats....
    20 Feb 2012, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    That's a total disaster!

     

    I hope it's a "glitch" that can/will be quickly corrected.

     

    I'm going to e-mail her.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Feb 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2151) | Send Message
     
    Pokalolo, is another person having problems leaving comments and being able to PM. Last weekend I saw a comment from him and said HI. He says that he has been lurking but has been restricted somehow. On Monday his comments disappeared.
    20 Feb 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps if OG is canceling out for some reason, TPTB could transfer the QC's to the QuickChat persona so we could keep the record intact...
    20 Feb 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5187) | Send Message
     
    While you're at it, you might just as well transfer those QCs that I had managed when OG took some time off. I don't mind and it would make sense to have the record all in one place.
    20 Feb 2012, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5039) | Send Message
     
    I removed everything. I didn't realize it would be a problem to anyone since I haven't posted quick chats in over a year and and half. Since they don't count comments on instablogs, it shouldn't really matter to anyone since nothing was current. I apologize to all my chums if they are missing comments they needed.

     

    Some of my personal accounts were hacked, so I decided to stop thinking out loud in public and changed my personal computer habits. (I'm building a tin foil hat as we speak!)
    I asked SA customer service to close the account totally, but they haven't done that yet (after two requests). So, I took matters in my own hands and removed what I controlled.
    Wishing you all health and prosperity.
    Cyber Hugs to HTL, TB and Maya for their friendship and concern! All 3 wrote to me to ask what's up... Maya wins the "most observant prize" because he noticed first!
    OG
    p.s.- writing comments is addictive. I'm going cold turkey now.
    20 Feb 2012, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, OG.

     

    If you removed them, that's different of course.

     

    Missing you already...
    20 Feb 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10556) | Send Message
     
    I had a feeling you had removed yourself from SA.

     

    Saddens me. But we can still yack here and there via normal email.

     

    Cyber roses to ya, my great friend!
    20 Feb 2012, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6212) | Send Message
     
    God Bless OG!! I will miss you.
    20 Feb 2012, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Oy, Gee: Greetings. Miss you already.
    21 Feb 2012, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Another good article from Eric Parnell. "Beware The Honey Badger Stock Market"

     

    It's mostly what we're all aware of, but worth a read.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    20 Feb 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2358) | Send Message
     
    Along those lines:

     

    http://bit.ly/Ao3dm0
    20 Feb 2012, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    SHB: That *is* priceless.

     

    Nice to start the day with a smile of confirmation and a chuckle!

     

    HardToLove
    21 Feb 2012, 05:17 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    Good info on Shipping ...

     

    Billionaire Fredriksen Sees Golar LNG Rate Surge on Japan Demand: Freight
    http://bloom.bg/zQchVg
    21 Feb 2012, 06:50 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    "Red Flag: Market Sentiment"

     

    Using sentiment as the contrarian indicator, sees risk ahead. Some good charts that show the divergence in sentiment and short positions.

     

    Short read.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    21 Feb 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    Headwinds for the end of Friday. Gallup shows the unemployment rate going from 8.3 to 9 percent.

     

    http://tinyurl.com/89c...
    21 Feb 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Unemployment numbers could go sour, but I'm thinking that Voldemort's friendly statisticians are just going to extend and pretend some more...
    21 Feb 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    BLS will report the unemployment numbers as 9 percent. But this will be interpreted as good news, meaning that people that were not being counted as unemployed now have hope and are looking for work again.
    21 Feb 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2383) | Send Message
     
    Great link, HTL. I am still of the opinion that opportunities for short term trading the dips and rallies will prevail at least until the second LTRO handout on 2/29 which may be even bigger than the last free money gift because 1) ECB is now saying it will be the last and 2) corporations with banking subsidiaries have figured out they are eligible for LTRO also and several are considering accessing the unlimited 1% funding!
    21 Feb 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5187) | Send Message
     
    Mercy - I read somewhere that the next LTRO was expected to be at least double or triple the size of #1 and I believe it was in a quote from the head of the ECB, iirc.
    21 Feb 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    HTL...bet you a cup of coffee we hit 13000 today...
    21 Feb 2012, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5187) | Send Message
     
    Let's see, Greek deal is signed and the rally begins. If all we do is 13K and do not hit a new 52-week high by tomorrow, I'd say that there doesn't seem to be much steam left in the boiler. What will be the impetus for marching higher from here?
    21 Feb 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    No bet. I believe we'll hit it too.

     

    But I've got my money saying it won't hold.

     

    I'm still looking for the short-term small pullback, another small push back up and the start of the grind down late March-April.

     

    My short calls expire 3/17 and I expect to be in a profit position on them. But I may let them get exercised as I'll net ~$5.5x on a $72.59 (UPRO) position.

     

    As usual, I got too early into (http://bit.ly/nPBNjS), but I think that will pay off after April, latest. Might get a little profit before then and I'll have to decide what to do - bail or ride it.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove

     

    P.S. EDIT DJT still heading down - DJIA will have a hard time holding ig DJT doesn't support it, *if* Dow Theory is correct.
    21 Feb 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    K202 .. I have been expecting it to run out of steam at about here. But MJ is probably right, just small dips until it breaks a new 52 week high.
    IMO, things are getting better but not enough to sustain these levels.
    It is just a handful of stocks that gain big everyday pushing the indexes higher now.
    21 Feb 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Just hit it for a moment, now back to $12,993.31.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Feb 2012, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    I began a small short this morning in PM...took profit early and just put it back on....May be a loss for a while or maybe not...but I think the mkt. is weak...

     

    (Invisible hands worldwide have learned to play the heavy weightier ETF's too)
    21 Feb 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    Goldman Sacs CEO rumored to step down by summer & another rumor telling bankers NOT to get attached to their bonuses ... may have to give them back.
    Sorry, I don't have time to post links...one is on CNBC tho.
    21 Feb 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    LT,

     

    Re: your Feb. 14 post about TVIX:

     

    Just a few minutes ago VIX +.38%, TVIX -.55% & XIV +.32%. Go figure! As near as I can tell, trying to correlate them in real-time will never work, nor will real-time correlation with the Dow or S&P, but they do seem to pull together fairly well by the end of day.
    21 Feb 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    thanks eggwis...

     

    we got thru 13000 nicely, now trying to close above it....I think they will.
    21 Feb 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    LT,

     

    I think the markets will actually close down today. Substantial sell off this afternoon. Profit taking. But I am usually wrong. :)
    21 Feb 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    I believe da Boyz have a higher goal...

     

    15k. Either between now and the end of March, or at least sometime in 2012.

     

    If they can build the momentum they need, it will be sooner rather than later.

     

    They need the little guys to feel emboldened into re-entering the market. I would also view 13k as a likely point for the carpet to get jerked out from under the retail investors, except all indications lead me to believe the little guys have NOT re-entered (volume has been tiny, and outflows from the funds have been large).
    21 Feb 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    I think you are right on about higher goals for the year and higher now if they get momentum ....not sure if they can get 14000-15000 before May or not, that's only 9 weeks.
    By election time, you will see much higher numbers...at least an all time high. (if not before)
    21 Feb 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Don't bet that you're wrong Jeff. My SPX price points were $135x and $1367, IIRC (I'd have to check my comments).

     

    We hit $1367.76 and pulled back.

     

    Half day to go of course, but ...

     

    HardToLove
    21 Feb 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10556) | Send Message
     
    TB: I think DOW 15,000 by the end of March is a little too soon. But I am on board with breaching 15K sometime this year.

     

    Think a 60 to 70% decrease in the DOW is unlikely, yet still possible. But betting juxtaposed and pretty much all-in on the powers to be to not let the markets sink a whole lot. Last thing the uber rich want is the rich to cease funding the politicians that make the uber rich more money, so that they can keep their preferred politicians in office. We are now in the era of "auction elections," a new twist to Chicago style politics and crony capitalism.

     

    People with 401s will be more inclined to vote based upon how their retirement accounts are doing, rather than the looming sovereign debt situation.

     

    I agree that the still-stubborn retail investors missing this near 100% bounce since May 08' will be in part a driver to take us up to DOW 15K. The continuing cheap interest window will do it's part, too.
    21 Feb 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    12:30 PM Molycorp (MCP +1.4%) moves up after saying it's launching the start-up of Project Phoenix, a new rare-earth manufacturing operation at its flagship Mountain Pass California facility this week, ahead of its April 1st deadline. Comment! [Commodities, On the Mov
    21 Feb 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    We've been discussing this over on the REE/Strat. Concentrator.
    21 Feb 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Link to the Concentrator.
    21 Feb 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    TB, can you send me a link to the REE/Strat concentrator? I had to replace my hard drive and lost the links.
    thanks.
    21 Feb 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    See above...

     

    Looks like our comments were tightly grouped.

     

    Its always easy to locate Concentrators so long as you know who posts the instablogs. All mine are listed on my profile page, and the same applies to Maya, FPA, K202, HTL, etc.
    21 Feb 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    TB et al: You could be right. Alan Brochstein makes the bull case in "Equity Outflows Ending: Reviewing The Case For 1600 On The S&P 500"

     

    http://bit.ly/xMJku2

     

    However he presents data that makes me think he may be wrong again: no outflow from the bond markets. It's been bandied about that the bond markets get it right *much* more often than the equities markets. I don't know.

     

    But there is x amount of money available (until the next Fed keystroke anyway) and I can't see having that much surge unless bond prices start to fall as money is withdrawn.

     

    Retailers inching back in will likely be skittish and dump again as soon as the long-expected re-trace shows up.

     

    No way to tell and, of course, I could be really wrong about this.

     

    But I've heard the equivalent of "money on the sidelines will come rushing in" for so long, that I can't believe it unless the bond market shows reduced concern for safety.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: Santelli reports 2 yr bond auction 3.54 bid-to-cover vs. historical avrage of 3.48.
    21 Feb 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    HTL...bonds are OK for now....but...they are a time bomb. No doubt in my mind that Bernanke knew that if he did not give them 2 years that we would see a crash just because of the bond mkt, plus a lot of debt needs to be issued AND rolled over.

     

    I don't know when, but to short bonds will be the best trade ever when interest rates begin to rise. I figure they start late this year and gradually move money around all thru 2013. Clandestine at first, but money will move out of bonds.

     

    I remember seeing some bonds years ago trading at 80 cents on the dollar...and these were high quality bonds too. Can you imagine what could happen now? I know of a few bonds in a portfolio trading at 116% now. Take them back to 80 and that hurts.
    21 Feb 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5187) | Send Message
     
    I think that the bond market is still trying to figure out the Eurozone situation. If the recent Greek resolution is determined to be no solution (which I think is going to happen) then we could see "risk off" investing and more money piling into bonds. The cue, imho, is what impact these austerity measures have on the PIIGS economies and budgets. I think we already know it won't be good, but the question is still not answered beyond expectation levels yet. Once we see real evidence of the failure (i.e., budget deficits widening as recessions deepen), the panic could begin again and a rush back to safety (Treasuries) could bring the 10-yr yield down below 2.5%. If that happens, holders of LT Treasuries could see gains from current levels of 10-12% in principal. I think it is that hope (and probably expectation) from within the bond market that is keeping money from leaving. Just my opinion.
    21 Feb 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    I believe we may see a flight to commodities, and not just gold. Oil is edging up, and we are about due for the commodity inflation chickens to come home to roost.
    21 Feb 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10556) | Send Message
     
    Over the past few days, weeks and months, some stocks I track have really busted out:

     

    Longwei Petroleum (LPH), was 95 cents on Oct. 18, now $1.65 (up 4.43% today)

     

    China Northeast Petroleum (NEP), was $2.00 on Jan. 29, now $3.57 (up 18.27% today)

     

    AgFeed Industries (FEED), up 40% today!

     

    Sangamo Biosciences (SGMO), was $2.45 on Nov. 25, now $5.38

     

    Entertainment Gaming Asia (EGT), was 24 cents on Jan 21, now 31 cents.
    21 Feb 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    China is zooming on news of looser economic controls from Beijing. Bank reserve requirements have been eased, and it is anticipated that this will in turn get the provinces back into building more empty cities and unfinished high rises.

     

    China's version of QE is anticipated, but I believe the prospects for all out resumption are limited.

     

    I would take profits if I were ivested in that sector (I am not).

     

    I am also anticipating Beijing discounting the yuan IF the situation deteriorates markedly in Europe, so there is more getting kicked down the road than just Greece's funky future.
    21 Feb 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    K202: Very rational. If the bond markets are thinking like me (all of us?) the risk is not in the deal-making, but in the execution.

     

    Is the common belief that Greece will have a disorderly default and/or leave the Euro? It's what those such as Kyle Bass seem to think. And that means I also think that since he knows *much* more about it than I ever will.

     

    I think we'll see the 10-year below 2% again.

     

    And that will likely dampen any surge the equities markets might make.

     

    I just hope the poor retail investor that doesn't have the time to be as involved as we doesn't get sucked in at the worst possible moment.

     

    They've been ravaged too much by what they've gone through already.

     

    I think the open question is about the other PIIGS. From what we hear, they are in much better shape, but can we believe anything we hear anymore?

     

    The pundits acknowledge that an EZ recession is likely: can Portugal, Italy, Spain (and even Ireland?) stand up to that as they implement austerity? Is "free money" really all it takes to stop "contagion" and cure all economic ills?

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    21 Feb 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    They may be in better shape % of GDP wise....but in reality Greece is a very very small deal, any country could wipe their debt to zero...
    Portugal the same way.

     

    Italy & Spain is in the trillions....that is the 800 lb. gorilla.

     

    K202...you have the bond scenario perfectly IMO....I just know that after that next 10% it is going to be really really bad if you are trying to preserve principal.
    21 Feb 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5187) | Send Message
     
    Theory would tell us that it works until debt exceeds 90% of GDP. Then the effect equals 0, and gets negative as the ratio worsens. But that isn't always the case. I think that the studies have left out a very important factor: who the creditors are makes a difference.

     

    If the creditors are largely from outside the country doing the borrowing, then the above theory probably holds. But if, as in Japan's case, almost all of the creditors are from within the borders of the borrowing nation, the impact is less disastrous. Japan is at 220% debt to GDP already, but the economy hasn't crumbled yet. I think that is because the Japanese people are committed to supporting their country and its debt no matter what. If the creditors don't live in the country and are not bound by national pride (or whatever) the creditor is much more likely to pull out the proverbial rug from under the borrowing nation.

     

    It always irks me when analysts point to the Japanese experience and say we are no different. Excuse me, but our national interests are not at the heart of or creditors in the Middle East or China. The may need us to buy their goods, but that proposition won't last forever like the Japanese nationalism. There is a big difference.

     

    Then we go to Greece. Well, Greece borrows more heavily from creditors outside its boundaries and it is insignificant in terms of the global economy. So, who among its creditors really gives a whip in the end if Greece fails? The only glue that is holding Greece together is the need for a stable Euro. But once Greece falls, what will protect the other smaller nations, Portugal and Ireland, from being ravaged as well? The only question that really matters to the bond market at this point, imo, is whether Spain and Italy can be saved. And we may be a long way from getting a definitive answer to that question. In the mean time, investors continue down the merry path as long as earnings continue higher. If we have a broad failure on the earnings in a coming quarter then it will be risk off again. Until then, da boyz seem to be in the drivers seat. Sorry for the ramble but somehow I seem to think better when I am writing.
    21 Feb 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    I monitor Ireland closely. I believe Ireland is in far better shape than Portugal or Greece, and in fact may be in better shape than Italy or Spain as well.

     

    I have been thinking that this might be the year when the PIIGS become the PIGS.

     

    I view Greece as either Europe's perpetual welfare recipient (every family seems to have one), or the nasty cousin everyone hopes will move out and change his name.

     

    Portugal might be more salvageable than Greece, but its definitely on the brink.

     

    The EU NEEDS to salvage Italy and Spain, and I view recent events as much more involved with pulling them back on their feet than worrying about the Greek Tragedy.
    21 Feb 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    From what I've read, Ireland "took their medicine" as the doctor prescribed, suffered while doing so, and came out in much better shape.

     

    The nasty part of that is they must wonder "Why did we bother? Those who didn't do the right thing get treated better than we".

     

    HardToLove
    21 Feb 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2383) | Send Message
     
    Yep homeowners who pay their mortgage on time or have paid it off completely -- are surely feeling the same as Ireland!
    21 Feb 2012, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10556) | Send Message
     
    Now I know why I like a snifter of Jamesons now and then ;-)

     

    Still continue to hate Greek wine and Ouzo, except for cleaning the Syntagma Square mud off my Rebocks.
    21 Feb 2012, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Eamon Keane
    , contributor
    Comments (311) | Send Message
     
    I live in Ireland and with a bit of luck we may get through this.

     

    We need robust international growth to fuel our exports, or else our house of debt - which will peak in 2014 at about 110% - will start to quiver. We still have a primary deficit of 7%. All the easy cuts have been made and taxes are beginning to show signs of diminishing returns. The domestic economy is shattered and unemployment is rising, now at 14.5%.

     

    The next 7% adjustment is going to be tough, we shall see how our public sector unions react. If we just got a 30% GDP write off (€50 bn), we'd be fine. This is the amount of money we pumped into our banks in part to prevent an EU Lehman. The ECB needs to play ball.

     

    It was heartening to see Xi Jinping spend 3 days in Ireland, more than the 12 hours a certain muslim terrorist from Kenya spent!
    21 Feb 2012, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    I appreciate someone just "telling it like it is" ... there is probably no doubt in the end the entire world will have to take a 30% plus write off of debt....
    Good luck there and we will follow your progress.
    21 Feb 2012, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Welcome, Eamon.

     

    We call that terrorist "Voldemort" around here.

     

    And I agree, Ireland deserves some slack at this point. Get your toughest negotiators in there and dig...
    21 Feb 2012, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • DaLatin
    , contributor
    Comments (1522) | Send Message
     
    Like him or not the "market" is telling us the election is OVER." V" will be unchallenged and a landslide is assured. Down in L.A. we will see all GDPs growing and the US will not drag them down as there dealing almost 90% with Asia.....

     

    I would never vote democratic ,but, I ALWAYS vote. This year may be the first presidential vote I may ship..... We do not have a candidate !
    Still !......... Sad.......

     

    And, to the comments above about posting..... Yes comments have disappeared big time and posters were blocked totally and were not told why......... You all know me ! Aloha
    22 Feb 2012, 06:27 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2151) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, I do. How you been stranger? Good to see you back.
    22 Feb 2012, 07:09 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    I don't think the market is telling us anything about the coming election. It's way to early in the cycle. We don't even know who will be running. Markets rerely react to information of that nature until after the fact.
    22 Feb 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • DaLatin
    , contributor
    Comments (1522) | Send Message
     
    Robert, your wrong 200%. You've been wrong for 6 + months. Sorry, but , the market looks 6 months to a year out and a democrat in the WH with at least one house of Congress in Rep hands is the best outlook for the "market".
    It is the gridlock the street loves ! After 65 years in this game it's like Yogi said. De ja vu all over again.
    And, somebody like you who digs up articles out the wazoo can find dozens as market history is crystal clear.

     

    Nope.... The 4 Reps CAN'T beat V on earth or any other planet.
    All the likes you received are as mistaken as you......
    22 Feb 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    DaLatin: Greetings. Markets look at trends circumstances and a host of other data to project base activity 6-9 months out. Rarely are individual events like elections factored in until the event is much closer or already past. For example annual weather events like our March windstorms can be factored in for trades on shingles well in advance. Singular events like a tsunami or flood can't be and must be played real time. On almost any board you go to comments are running unfavorable for Voldemort by over 5:1. With gasoline at $5 a gallon by September and unemployment around 9% you can trumpet from towers or make your own headlines proclaiming a great victory but it's all Hogwash until the votes are counted. You are starting to sound like a media maven with tingles running up and down your leg. Mr. Market doesn't have a crystal ball and neither do you.
    22 Feb 2012, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5187) | Send Message
     
    DaLatin,

     

    I mean no disrespect, but since we still have our freedom of speech I think it should be pointed out that we are also all entitled to our own opinions. I don't think that the market wants four more years of gridlock inside the beltway. I think that by that time it will be too late to change directions and avoid becoming another Greece. The market, I believe, is more astute than history and understands that four more years of $Tillion plus deficits will put us into the danger zone from which we, as a nation, will not be able to retract ourselves. By that point we will have passed the point of no return and the irreparable damage will have been done. No, I thing that the market is in neutral and hoping for a change for the better. If the market believes as you do, I think the market would be in free fall. Since it is not, I believe, as does Robert, that there is still a thread of hope.
    22 Feb 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • DaLatin
    , contributor
    Comments (1522) | Send Message
     
    Robert, it's the media ! Not me and there doing a dam good job spinning. Charlie rose had 4 historians chatting and had FDR an LBJ had Obama's skills they could have been great. That's the crap on t/v an Obama is back at 50%. He crushes all 4 Rep's in swing states now and WHEN ( not if ) the unemployment rate is back above 9% an gas is 5 bucks he will successfully blame Congress....

     

    Months back you were touting the polls and I told you they would change. They did !

     

    The fat ladies are singing and no my balls are not crystal but I don't miss elections nor do I have bad stock market years.. EVER ! 2012 has been fantastic and I did post 10 symbols back a few QC's ago as my last name. Boomed all...........

     

    Hopefully they'll leave me alone now as DL........

     

    Nobody will get my 5 secret picks an they all have doubled since Nov 11... Actually Sears was one ,but, it doubled an it's gone.

     

    Hogwash... that was my line to you when Obama was down in the polls way back when...... Now it's your line ,but, your too late..

     

    OVER !
    22 Feb 2012, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • DaLatin
    , contributor
    Comments (1522) | Send Message
     
    K202, I am 100% in agreement with your comment,but, 51% + voters in the US don't agree with me or you..........

     

    My 65 market years tells me that the street absolutely likes gridlock and Fed Ben will continue to print and without JCT .Now the ECB has adopted the Fed's QE way of life an thus the EU banks have almost free money for 3 years an that will allow the markets here an in the EU to get most of the criminals re-elected. All but Smuckozy. He is in trouble..................
    22 Feb 2012, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    One more IMO here....Da Boyz have sucked all the pension and small fish into the bond mkt ....while the smart money used the sell off in the 3rd & 4th qtr. to move a ton of $$$ into equities....they move well ahead of the crowd.

     

    Sometimes I think because of that, the next 10% may never come. I am just a suspicious and NON-TRUSTING as HTL is when it comes to Da Boyz and the invisible hands of the central bankers.
    21 Feb 2012, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    VIX +4.95%. That means lots of put contracts being bought.

     

    Yep. Just checked the 1-week on the SPX - *huge* volume.

     

    Now, keep in mind that market-makers who go short puts to meet buyer demand should immediately short the market to remain in a market-neutral or profit position. So, folks buying puts, in effect, help drive the market lower.

     

    I won't be able to get the contract or dollar ratios until after the market closes, but I suspect a big change will be seen.

     

    As of Friday put/call was 1.78 and dollar ratio was 0.47.

     

    Let's see how it changes.

     

    It does look like I can see current contract volumes though. Friday call contract trades were 201.17K and put contracts were 430.63K. Currently 337.88K and 382.01K respectively.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Feb 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2383) | Send Message
     
    Credit goes to 1980XLS2.0 for posting on StockTalk this unusual development in TVIX -- Credit Suisse Temporarily Suspends Further Issuance of shares in TVIX: http://yhoo.it/zqjDCT

     

    HTL -- does this have precedent and are the implications just the simple supply/demand relationship? Could this be signaling something deeper?
    21 Feb 2012, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    Mercy,

     

    Last 7 trading days have seen more than 200 millions shares of TVIX traded. Average volume normally is around 5 to 7 millions shares per day. Just about every one of those last 7 trading days would have been an all time high volume. That is a lot of hedging. Cant find anything negative out there that may affect TVIX to the down side.
    21 Feb 2012, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2383) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Jeff. That just seems like a lot of demand for hedging. Just wondering if there is a precedent for this or more to this than meets the eye. Perhaps not -- although postings like this one (albeit from a vague source) last week may suggest some relationship: SENIOR US BANKERS GIVEN EXPLICIT TIMETABLE FOR ATHENS DEFAULT 3/23: http://bit.ly/AqA0FV
    21 Feb 2012, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5187) | Send Message
     
    Either of those pieces of info would be a head scratcher by themselves, but taken together it seems to me that you are onto something.

     

    Who but the banksters would take such large position in TVIX spread out over several days. BTW, does the temporary suspension give those already owning TVIX a position at the drivers seat? Can they corner this niche market? I wonder.
    21 Feb 2012, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10556) | Send Message
     
    Good pal, Alberta Rocks, over on John Loundsbury's "EcoIntersection" website caught the candlestick AAPL late Friday formation and wrote a great article about it.

     

    Tonight, seemingly always late to the party, Cramer spoke the same.

     

    The boyz already have put into action some puts via short ETFs.

     

    A rollover is imminent. Not a big one, unless Israel attacks Iran. Which the US is not backing, at present.
    22 Feb 2012, 01:30 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2383) | Send Message
     
    K202, You are asking the right question: "does the temporary suspension give those already owning TVIX a position at the drivers seat?"

     

    Over on StockTalk the speculation is that this move will absolutely save all of the current bagholders who watched TVIX drop precipitously over past months. Several holding TVIX were gleefully warning they would hold current position until they could get $40 pps.
    22 Feb 2012, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18457) | Send Message
     
    Mercy, I've never looked into that stuff, so I can't help.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Feb 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/wEzTZj

     

    Barrons is wondering, too...

     

    TVIX is up this morning a nice chunk...
    22 Feb 2012, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5187) | Send Message
     
    Mercy - I really think your last two links and the info about the RVIX need to be posted on FPAs European Sovereign Debt Blog. Taken together, they help connect the dots and from comments over there it seems most haven't noticed them or didn't think of them all in the same context.
    22 Feb 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2383) | Send Message
     
    Done, K202. thanks,
    22 Feb 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    No information out there for the masses. Just speculation. One wonders if there is some type of insider information has been leaked?

     

    Reminds me of less than a year ago when the scandal broke out involving Anthony Weiner. As he was going out the door after resigning, he gave out one tidbit of advice which was to buy the VIX. Two months later the VIX made a 150 percent run up in value.

     

    He was of course privy to information within Congress that was issued behind closed doors that if traded upon would be considered insiders trading. That is if Congress was not exempt from the same rules regarding insiders trading that everyone else is subject to.

     

    http://tinyurl.com/7y3...

     

    There is information out there that individuals know that we dont know and are trading on that information. Legal it is not but difficult to catch. The TVIX last week had two hundred million shares traded, and the stock went up on several days that that S$P was also up on.

     

    I am still holding my shares of TVIX though it gave up that 12 percent gain that I had last week. Still waiting for the equity market to top out and give up some of its gains. Though I am a bit more nervous now.
    21 Feb 2012, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    Nice find MJ:
    All the above explains TVIX radical behavior that I was asking about earlier....I have read a lot this morning about taking $$$ off the table.
    Either someone knows something or shorts really gonna get burnt.

     

    Fast money has two articles:
    1. A lot of "double tops" (S&P, CAT, etc.)
    2. Whether to take profits on Dow 13000 based on the above and AAPL reversal yesterday.

     

    Everyone there thinks we go higher later on, but a 10-15% correction is imminent.
    22 Feb 2012, 06:10 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    Time for a new concentrator ?

     

    I enjoy this group and all the research here and the other concentrators that you run is invaluable. Not much gets missed. Except probably the warning the big banks will get when Greece has to leave the EZ. I don't think default matters now...they've had 2 years to prepare.
    22 Feb 2012, 06:18 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    FWIW....TVIX has traded 48,000 shares in PM
    22 Feb 2012, 07:19 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5569) | Send Message
     
    Bears are just too weak...or....market just too strong
    22 Feb 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message