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QuickChat #225, February 22, 2012 209 comments
"Oeborus" by stan bruns
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This post has 209 comments:
TVIX has just gone negative...
I hope it spreads like wildfire.
HardToLove
Good afternoon
It sounds like an interesting development, worth keeping track of. It isn't often that there is a tech that has immediate promise to help clean the air without massive R&D,marketing and installation costs. I would also be interested to see if it would have an effect on the massive mold problems in homes.
I wouldn't get too excited until some controlled experiments show that it really does something. Maybe those experiments have been done already, maybe not. Just sayin' .
Iran got them too !
I don't think it will be too long before Israel strikes an way before Pinetta hinted ! Soon ! Gold an oil were my touts over an over in Nov 2011 an they have performed an still are !
http://bit.ly/wGYxtf
Related to MATR (which I sold out of a while ago, but interesting company) and how companies spy on us - http://bit.ly/yhFvzP
Interview with John Hathaway - http://bit.ly/zoF81p
S & P 500 vs. Price of Gold ratio, 1980 to present (chart) - http://bit.ly/x4GrQE
Really good presentation/speech by Robert Rodriguez titled "Caution: Danger Ahead" which I want to go back and reread when I have time to do more than skim (should be some good charts in here for the Euro concentrator too): http://bit.ly/yFsuBy
TBT and other bond shorting mechanisms might be turning the corner from the smart money noise I was just catching up on... but will have to evaluate more and check in with the more astute HTL.
I think I'm over a 1000 messages behind on the Axion Concentrator... maybe I can catch up during my 8 hour layover in Beijing Saturday... if I can find a computer to use somewhere.
My wife passed her U.S. citizenship test this past Tuesday... I get my feet back on U.S. soil Saturday night... quite looking forward to getting home.
OG didn't really sign off, did she?
Best of trades to all ye 'Gades
HardToLove
I'll bet she was a bit nervous.
Must be a big relief.
HardToLove
I expect good things from this. They are looking at a target rich project environment...
This is why my single largest long holding is North Atlantic Drilling (NATDF) in US OTC and (NADL:NO) in Norway OTC:
1) NATDF is a spinoff from SDRL last year -- which meant that this "start-up" enjoyed coming out of the gate with the shiniest new ULDW harsh environment rigs PLUS 1200 seasoned SDRL employees.
2) The successful CEO of SDRL is also the CEO of NATDF.
3) Today it is a $2+ stock with an estimated 7.6% dividend yield (all financial sites under report the yield by 50% because they only count the first two quarterly dividends since inception last year.)
4) Management has announced plans to list on one of the NY exchanges.
5) Norway recently pointed to a coming oil rig shortage in the North Sea: http://bit.ly/zZiQS1
The risks with this one include low current volume liquidity on the US OTC, and the many risks of rig operators in general i.e. high debt levels, risk of oil spill, etc.
SDRL owns over 70% of NATDF so it will be interesting to see what it plans to do with its stake in the future. In the meantime, SDRL depends on the NATDF dividend as much as I do :-)) If you decide to do some research check out Powerhedge articles on SA and listen to the earnings release to be distributed jointly with SDRL on 2/29. Happy hunting!
NATDF is a real favorite of mine, as well (as you might suspect, given our previous picks.) I don't particularly view Fredriksen as an unalloyed asset, given his decisions re Frontline. He's also boss of Golar LNG as well as our favorites SDRL and by proxy NATDF. However, I agree with all other benefits you've outlined! Our basis gives us a 9% yield and, as TB would say, I am lurking with GTC orders down around $1.70 in case one day's bad news drives it down again. I believe those drillers who can operate safely in the harshest environments are destined to be successful; that's where the elephant fields are still awaiting us.
If anyone understands deep drilling in harsh environments, its us turtles.
LOL else the species would have died out long since!
In case others begin to share our common interest in Norwegian holdings , let me add here a recent listing of the highest OBX dividend stocks. I hold/have held 9 of these names: http://bit.ly/ArVGLA
Always good to see you on the QC!
mj
Now the question, since you have been watching this stock for a while and adding on dips, what is your suggested purchase price. Is it $1.7 USD. Thanks in advance.
NATDF has paid me 4 cents per share last quarter and 3.5 cents the quarter before that. Since it commenced operation last year it has only had two fully operating quarters to date for dividend distributions: http://bit.ly/yB1Dpf
I cannot in good conscience suggest an entry price since the "right" price for you is dependent on so many variables. I can tell you that I have lots as low as $1.50 and as high as $1.80. Also be aware of two more points: 1) the strength or weakness of the NOK/USD relationship will move the price and 2) when the spinoff first took place the private placement shares were purchased by institutional investors for about $1.70 per share. I think earnings results on the joint 2/28 SDRL conference call may also help you in determining the best entry for you.
mj
1) After hearing the SDRL conference call and NATDF updates this morning, I elected to sell all of my NATDF holdings.
2) Although the NATDF update reported higher cash flows, a higher dividend distribution, and a planned US listing in Q3 -- EBITDA was lower and operating profit was lower.
3) Several financial updates (delivered for Q3) were not included for NATDF's Q4 conference call presentation i.e. no operating income statement, no net income statement, and no balance sheet statement. Big deal?? I think potentially so. For example during Q3 cash/cash equivalents dropped to a low of $6 million (from $118 million in Q2) -- so what is NATDF's cash position now? I have no idea.
4) Last quarter a tax dispute on the NATDF books were summarized as "unjustified" with a maximum exposure to NATDF of US $263 million. Today's presentation did not provide the update on the tax issue which I expected, although 2 references in their 2/29/12 "Fourth quarter and preliminary 2011 results" http://bit.ly/yC9QzN can be found on page 10 of the news release and on page 21 of the notes to the SDRL financial statements. If interested you should review and come to your own conclusions. I was not left with greater comfort on the tax issue and I am now sensing a pull back from previous confidence levels. It appears NATDF is still deliberating the issue and is now dealing with a constitutional claim and a dispute on functional currency calculations with tax authorities. Sorry, but this does not sound like a slam dunk to me, and if the case for any reason is lost it could represent nearly 3 quarters of NATDF operating income to settle.
My bottom line is that I was not left with the healthy impressions I have had after past conference calls -- so I booked my gains on this large position this morning. This step was right for me until I get my many questions answered. If NATDF does get listed in the US the share price should benefit -- and if the tax issue is resolved and the pps dips after the US November elections I will re-evaluate whether to buy back in. Also note that when I purchased NATDF on the Oslo OTC -- SDRL had indicated its intent to list it on the Oslo Bors. SDRL then unexpectedly pulled back that plan and only provided a vague rationale. I do not know whether this tax dispute with Norwegian authorities had anything to do with the dropped plan for Oslo listing last year.
I hope this is helpful to anyone doing your own research and arriving at your own conclusions re: NATDF.
HardToLove
I know that you and Mercy (et al) follow SDRL and NATDF. Just wondering if you also follow Fredriksen's other holdings, such as DSSPF. It was 1.15 in January when it first caught my eye, and now is up more than 100%, to 2.26 (not sure of its price on the Oslo Bors). Just wondering what other, greater minds think of this stock.
Your humble follower.
HardToLove
This indicates to me that the risk factor eminating from the EZ and Middle East is still driving capital to safe haven investments. When investors are willing to accept such small returns on long duration notes it's a clue.
http://bit.ly/zEKUPu
http://buswk.co/ySubEM
We put boat loads of client dollars in the 12%+ 10 year bond an compounded there $s in 6% Brazil banks with debit cards. And, all the legal travel expenses to start the accounts........
WOW 12% compounded an a Enjoy a legit business trip.
Now there touting Brazil.........Oh well.........Even MS an JPM were 10 months ahead of this new info................
All the time and for quite a while now. Get the B&B up and running yet? Should mix that with an investors course, be able to take a vacation and get a tax write off and learn at the same time. :-)
Anyway, things can't get better market wise ,but, living here an seeing the democrats cooing about their Obama getting a second term is sickening.....
I hope your making money ! Smiles
I now have the Jan 1 starting cash back and the 38% profits are scattered in 17 high dividend stocks from AGNC to WIN.......
There up and should yield about 15%-17% averaged together. This way 100% of the starting cash is safe an if the market holds or goes sideways i'll book a 50% safe gain in 2012
I just spoke to Bob.. He sends his best and hopes all on QC are well......... Well, time to turn in.....I will read all the stuff when I get up.
aloha
As I read most of your comments I'd say what you perceive is not that useful for investing in LA and in US politics aswell.
Yes we all have opinions ,but, mine over the past 2 years have turned out to be spot on.
And, the recent post effects all Americans worldwide not just LA.........
Home Loan Servicing's Erbey Says No to Taxes After Saying Yes to TARP
http://bit.ly/xy8bcB
Also, trying to decide if I should chase the general/broader market to expand portfolio or wait for a potential March correction...everything I like is high on 52wk...
For those making money betting on a weaker yen over the past few weeks, congrats.
HOWEVER, I think the party may be over. BOJ has launched it's hail mary, and note the chart and the position of th eyen at the 80.5 mark...
Now I expect China to step in and cap it back to about 80.
Be careful out there...
I don't see how Japan can hope or want the Yen to stay this high. Once they start borrowing on the world market to finance their debt I can't imagine the Yen remaining at 80/dollar. Just a few years ago it was over 100.
If they continue to run a trade deficit, CAN the Yen remain this high?
Maybe I don't understand all I know :-)
Japan has lost control of its currency long since, largely because it embarked on the mad path of deficit spending and drove its debt so high that it has reached a point where even the long suffering Japanese workers are wilting under the load. I agree, Japan needs at least 90/$, preferably something close to 100/$. But its not about "need", its about who controls, and that is not really the Japanese anymore.
Eventually it WILL all crash, but in the meantime the big dog in the kennel is China, and as soon as the BOJ exhausts their most recent run to weaken the yen (which IMO is about over), they have the ability to inexorbably squeeze them back to 75/$. As I have laid out in the past, China has geopolitical goals (sucking the high tech industry out of Japan and into China) which are helped by an expensive yen, so they make sure the yen IS expensive.
After they have sucked the carcass dry (and this process is far advanced, though by no means complete) they can reverse the process, about the time when the inflation from a cheap yen devastates a shrunken and weak Japan.
The problem comes trying to TIME this affair, which is what forex is all about. When BOJ publicly announced an intention to intervene in the yen, it was simple to go with the flow and make some profits short term. BUT there are other factors which need to be examined to try to pick when China will pull in the rope...
China's moves in the rare earth sector, for instance, are a clear "tell". LOL, it gets complicated after that...
In every negotiation they want tech to move to China...where as we know they will steal it, copy it, and charge like crazy if given the opportunity for any new innovation.
If...I had been a younger man I would have moved there the day the doors opened...retired in no time.
One of the reasons I bet on the relative decline of the Yen was the fact that any future debt in Japan will almost certainly not be held by the Japanese citizens. What I have read says that the 3 Trillion dollars in bonds held by the Japanese "postal savings" system (at a return of 1-1.5%) is now undergoing net redemption. That can only increase because of demographics and probable consumption tax increases. Demographics are inexorable. Less folks will work and more will spend savings they have accumulated for 40 years. But the Japanese government has already borrowed and spent the total value of these bonds. Nothing left. They have no choice but to borrow in the world money markets, AFAIK. To meet those interest demands they will print Yen. What choice do they have, other then to refuse to redeem the savings accounts?
I don't think even China will loan them money below 2-3%. Why should they? As the Yen devalues, China can buy Japanese companies at ever lower prices relative to the RMB.
But trip's point is well taken; when will it get seriously bad for the Yen? I am betting this year will see the "glow" around the Yen extinguished and the fall start for real.
But I bet by buying the YCS ETF, not by shorting the Yen. I know my limitations :-)
Its hard for most investors, particularly those raised in a more free market environment, to grok just how little profit motives enter into this particular game.
IF their geopolitical goals call for China selling dollars and buying yen, they will do so, and without hesitation (its that totalitarian central control, y'know). All the more so if they also want the net effect of any rise in the value of the yen to be offset by a weaker dollar and stronger yen.
I believe it WILL be possible to predict when China will make a shift from supporting a strong yen and weak dollar to the opposite...
The rare earth elements are the canary in the mineshaft. Note that China just this week announced an ambitious national objective to grab the lead in material sciences, research and development, and particularly to expand high tech applications for rare earths. Not by coincidence, Hitachi announced a few months back plans to build their largest and most modern new research and development center...
In China.
Sometime over the next 12 months we should see ex-China production of rare earths (and other strategic minerals monopolized by China, including antimony for instance) startup once again. Its very possible that China will be satisfied at the 65% of the world's high tech manufacturing they have already gleaned from the clueless big noses (an unflattering but common term Chinese apply to Westerners, similar to Japan's equally unflattering "gaijin"). When that point is achieved, I would expect one of the first places we will see a shift in their strategy occur as the Yen sinks in value...
And then REALLY drops like a stone, much further than the befuddled BOJ will ever want.
ALSO, I made an error in this sentence from the prior post:
" All the more so if they also want the net effect of any rise in the value of the yen to be offset by a weaker dollar and stronger yen."
It should read: " All the more so if they also want the net effect of any rise in the value of the YUAN to be offset by a weaker dollar and stronger yen."
I love how the most successful country in the history of the planet in terms of quality of life from the poor to the rich also has the most ignorant demagogic population in the world and continues to get maligned and forced to apologize for itself again and again -- it is amazing how that happens. If only we could all be as educated as the rest of the brilliant insolvent populations of the world.
http://on.wsj.com/xqXNz9
It should be our national motto. Maybe then we would stop repeating errors and pushing our collective luck.
The US is just over two hundred years old an parts of her history are more than horrifying... Maybe it's one of a few large successful countries in modern time on the planet,but, a few billion people would say bull poop !
I'd say Rome or England had empires for centuries an China was a world leader for a few thousand years....People moved up the chains in those countries..
Of important note concerning employment ! Obama is now going after US citizen jobs overseas an it seems it's off the radar screen,but, is a bad move for millions !
http://bit.ly/wExPjo
I am a fan of Lex Luthor.. Got to hit that fault line an give NV an AZ a coastline.......... ha ha ha ha ha ha
Why, any place that shelters a Pelosi or a Frank is a shamefull place.
I'll ask that everyone keep it civil and avoid endless debates on topics like American exceptionalism (or lack thereof). I'd take that as a personal favor. Most of the QC's membership is more intent on making their personal portfolio's exceptional...
Thanks for the reminder, I do go off on tangents sometimes. My wife has found that keeping a 2x4 around has helped me maintain my focus. :-)
I understand that politics are part of the equation of investing, but I also understand the point TB was making about this forum is more for due diligence (of which political reality plays a part, that is why there are links to legislative bills) than a purely political discussion. I think we should PM each other for purely political discussion.
Just wondering and asking for discussion ... it seems to me that more resistance to Merkel is coming from all sides, inside the EZ and outside. My initial take is that she has no choice now....expand the fund or risk break up of EZ. I also think Greece is on the verge of leaving IF the $130 b is not delivered without further concessions. I think they don't trust the next Greek election and want to delay funding until after that. But Greece may not go for it. Just my opinion.
In my opinion the G 20 meeting was totally predictable. EU your rich enough to pay up.
http://tinyurl.com/6tz...
Pre-market very strong, as normal for new positive news.
HardToLove
A PDF, "10 Things You Didn’t Know About Microturbines"
Thanks to Terakauriimu at nvestorvillage for the link.
http://bit.ly/z2cthg
HardToLove
UVXY will reverse split 1-for-6. The reverse split will apply to shareholders of record as of the close of the markets on March 7, 2012. The fund will trade at its post-split price on March 8, 2012. The ticker symbol for the fund will not change. The fund will be issued a new CUSIP number.
Might work.
Ichan will consider himself fortunate one day.
Seems like don't fight the Fed still applies........
And, the ECB doing the same thing with the EU banks buying 3 to 5.5% bonds an making easy safe money !
All speculation by me,
HardToLove
Actually 270 at 50 and 230 at 49 cents as it is showing..
The S&P chart is exhibiting a QE pattern, and earnings can't be responsible for that movement... If we can identify what the FED is doing, we can be forwarned about what is going to happen when they stop doing what they are doing.
As I recall, Twist involved exchanging debt on one time line for debt on another... The QE pattern is related to inflation, how does a Twist debt exchange force cash into the market? Did Twist start in mid-December? In the past, the market movement was very closely aligned with the start of the intervention. What happend in Mid December?
But the only way I can see that happening is with reverse-repo already in place. And even if they were, the near-term effect would be the same as if they were not.
(TLT) now +1.12%.
Until something comes along that can overwhelm the Fed's capacity to do this, I can't see long-term paper dropping much.
I *do* believe that the cash withdrawals from Greece banks may also be contributing.
This stuff *seems* supported by the fact with the Germany vote there should be the usual sedative-induced lack of fear again. But (TLT) rises where in the past this sort of news would cause prices on our long-term paper to weaken.
So if things are "backwards", it suggests that factors there used to be *not* in play are now having effect.
MHO,
HardToLove
It was considered legal over Rep's objections
As I remember how talking heads described it.....
Seems the S&P at a multi year high an the Dow at 13,000 doesn't give the Fed much reason to justify more twisting !
I will buy another 25% if the price holds or dips......
HardToLove
No wonder the typical retail investor that may have to work for a living is staying away.
All attempts at more transparency to create a "fair market" are defeated by the creative minds that populate the "financial engineering" universe.
HardToLove
The pundits keep saying money is waiting on the sidelines ,but, fool them twice..
Too bad for them.... There just not going to return and only a handful or traders are making the pot of gold.....
Being that said........We got our group of of Sears an Whirlpool today with monster gains.......
Got to keep playing an taking gains.........
Grabbed another 500 TBT at 18.45... I guess the Greece news rallied US bonds an I grabbed anothr 25%.. 1000 more to go..
http://bloom.bg/wJqeAI
Includes:
1) Amusing idea of needing to make only 4 trades since 1970: 1970, buy gold for $35.17. December 31, 1979, sell gold and buy Nikkei index. December 31, 1989, sell Nikkei and buy Nasdaq. December 31, 1999, sell Nasdaq and buy gold. By 2010, a $35.17 investment in 1970 gets to be over $220,000.
2) Facts that -
a) Indian citizens own as much gold as the US and EU combined
b) for China to arrive at having 10% of its reserves in gold, China will have to buy half of the world's gold production, and keep all its own production, for at least the next 3 years, and probably quite a bit longer
c) meanwhile the U.S., France, Italy, and Germany have over 70% of its reserves in gold
Link: http://bit.ly/yQQYNa
http://tgr.ph/xeTyb6
http://bit.ly/wFoYIU
HardToLove
Seems a 4% glide path is relatively moderate at this point.
Will low interest rates and prices ever cross over latent demand and create positive sentiment?
I just used the Greek news to get another 500 TBT at 18.44/45
1000 shares left to buy and hold ........
With the Fed's "Operation Twist" being the *only* thing, long-term, holding our rates down, I don't think it's enough to cause folks to throw caution to the wind and start buying hand over fist.
The Fed *might* get some help from EZ investors if their GDP acts as expected. But will those folks choose yields below the real rate of inflation or the stock markets, junk or corporate bonds, ... that at least have a *notional* yield above inflation?
If the "fear factor" ratchets down, I think equities. If we get more and more uncertainty, then I think bonds and treasuries.
MHO,
HardToLove
Not sure what that means.
If we dip another .5 we continue down @4.5%, absent intervention??
THX in advance
Anyway, the 0.5% was added to the 4%+ as holding steady to a slight tilt toward the lower. With life time lows on the 30 year mortgage.. If your young an have any faith in the USA you need to continue the American dream an own your own home. Don't follow the young pundits an rent !
I can get a block or 12 units for next to nothing maybe even get paid for taking them over...
Got my nephew looking into setting up a Foundation fund to pay the maintenances..........
A nice little "Cottage Business", no doubt.
Gotta decide though, whats it gonna be, beaches or mountains?
I've got first right of refusal on an 88 Silverton 40ft., run hard and parked wet but priced to sell if anybody's interested.
Motivated seller is headed for the hills. EA OUT
The flip side is that the encryption system can use a handshake to verify the buyer. That makes some type of Public-Private Key encryption system possible. Should be an interesting contest between cheap and dirty encryption and profit driven cracking.
It's one way to make an engineering degree useful again :-(
If they are, the combination of CPU required to do a brute-force crack of the encrypted data and the very short-duration the data is on the air should be near-100% secure.
Longer encryption keys are also possible. The trade-off should be bandwidth.
Anyway, using that stuff, public keys are secure. If it's a private key, so much the better.
HardToLove
I'm a happy camper around home today. Have my new 65 incher up and running and connected through a Home Theater Power Management system, which if lightning strikes my home, everything plugged into this $500 gadget is guaranteed to survive. Still haven't bought the surround system, yet. Sunday night I figured to be a great night to "de-virginate" my flatscreen, being Oscars Night...all that cleavage! Alas, this was the worst Oscars ever in that department. Where was Amanda Drury?
Also...since I'm going this way, I'm finally getting around to hooking up my new wireless printer, plus a new 26 inch flatscreen in my study. Still have to get the 42 inch back up and running in the master bedroom. And to top it all off, I got six new phones to park around the house.
The most excellent aspect about waiting four months to bring the 65 inch Panasonic home was that back in October I bought it on sale for $3499. Sunday, it was on sale for $2799 (Best Buy). In a way, I made almost $200/month !!! just for watching my 42 incher, while the remodeling limped forward.
Wish I had the time to help you more with ETAK. Surely, If I bought some at a price I thought to be a good one, you'd figure a way to get it cheaper! LOL.
I need Voldemorte to send me another $1200 check like George W. did.
'Hundreds of thousands' fitted with suspect hip implants http://bit.ly/A8J0Xw
Of note :
I have been riding JPM for a really nice gain and got a few dividend payments. I also think Mr Diamond runs the best ship,but, reading the transcript of today's release and I dumped the stock at
$ 39.50.......
Jamie said he isn't considering breaking off a few pieces and he said he won't buy shares as it is too expensive. Looking at the #s tells me it is super cheap,so, he is telling me things will get worse from here......
I am moving to something else.
http://bit.ly/y7rvTH
I am not being political. And, I am 110% against what the article points out,but, I stated it 6 months ago an some tried to post all sorts of stuff saying history an other nonsense says otherwise.
Sad for all of us........
I agree the market is up on this an not the #s. There clearly showing a 2% GDP in 2012
But, it may happen. I'm just not ready to throw my hands up and stay home in November. I intend to vote, early and often.
Well done, buddy!
as 2 wrongs don't make a right isn't the answer.
This election is over and all the 55 million people who know the US will change forever are shafted..
You all know I have invested in land on 3 continents an my family will have the ability to live somewhere else should they choose.
And, Romney has as good a chance as you do to beat the President. The street knows that an 70% of Reps are wanting another candidate !
So, the TBT post just days back and the reason behind it seems to have captured Fed Ben's comments spot on......
So,I will keep doing my thing an you do yours.
So, now your going to Spain.. Wow, the easy money was made 6 months back. EU has been up twice the US.To bad you an your buddies missed those posts...
PS.. I will thank you for serving our country !
June should end Fed twisting an who wants 1.93% with even the US 2% inflation # !
Original Oil (OOIL) This algea-to-fuel company I have been tracking for over three years. Today, they announced that algea producers can blend in waste feedstocks to produce gasoline and diesle for about $2.28 per gallon.
http://yhoo.it/zIDNm5
OOIL is a risky stock (check the chart to see what happened after they did a reverse split--not good!) to invest in. But, long ago I very much wanted to track its promising developments. I'd debate this development is fairly significant, if true.
Five Largest Banks 'Should Be Broken Up': Fed’s Fisher
http://bit.ly/yG...
Question: Do we think the major effect of LTRO was the run-up to it or that this will provide real near to med-term opportunities in Europe and elsewhere abroad?
I think the G20 may have clipped Merkels wings but I have no trust in her or Germany. PIIGS have too much to accomplish between now and march. I suspect the hedges are already scalping their next victim.
Then again, they may be afraid to buck the fed too.
Will be fun to see how the ECB, the Fed, the IMF, and our good friends Angela And The Lonely Deutschland Band handle the next bout of trouble. I suppose the predictable cycle will be: market goes down on news the financial world as we know it is falling apart, market goes up as central bankers find new and creative ways to print more money and further debase paper currencies, rinse and repeat until total meltdown, eureka moment, or eureka meltdown.
In other news... I'm really amused the market decided Bernanke's testimony wasn't dovish enough today. The man said he's holding rates at zero for three years, full stop. How could anyone interpret anything he says as less than dovish?
If I had to pick a week, it would be next week, because APPL has a history of a run up to new product intro, then a big sell off after the fact...buy the rumor, sell the fact....maybe Da Boyz start ahead of the pack a week early.
It is hard for me to find the right vehicle to short the mkt...TVIX not behaving right....not sure about UVXY yet. I would still like a few good preferreds. Please share the South AMerica picks.
Middle-Class Welfare State Is Invisible by Design: Ezra Klein
http://bloom.bg/yJGWzS
It's smart politics to tax those who don't understand the system and don't realize it's set up to force them to pay more than those who have more resources. Poor folks who don't own a home and pay mostly consumption taxes don't get any advantage from income tax deductions.
The lowest tax payers will be those with the intelligence, education and resources to figure out the tax advantages. The lower earners will have money withheld from their check (amount suggested by the payroll office) and file an EZ IRS form at the end of the year. That's it. Deductions? What's that?
Bless their ignorant souls. The pols love 'em. We should too.
The things societies do for money........
I'm lucky smart. For the first time in 56 years I decided to grow a 'stache. Now all of a sudden I have learned that a proposed bill exists that will provide moustache growers a $250 tax credit.
http://yhoo.it/x8ovVG
EU PMI 49
Italy's unemployment soars to 9.2% Decade high
2012 S*Ps best stock Sears........ Recommended here at 29 then 28.
100% +++
"Now there are a lot of people, among them European policymakers, who would actually be quite happy if the Greek default killed off the sovereign CDS market as a side effect."
http://seekingalpha.co...
OTOH, since it appears the CDS reliability as an instrument of insurance is uncertain at best and, at worst, manipulated to not pay out if the interested parties are powerful enough, I would demand higher yields regardless.
It appears to me that what's going on around all this, to avoid a short-term pain for certain parties, has the potential for the usual long-term "unintended consequences" accompanying the usual wiggling of the worms for short-term benefit.
I wonder if we'll see higher yields for Portugal, Spain, Italy, ... as a result of all this manipulation? If not, I'll be surprised.
HardToLove
Imagine what it would be with the rest of the PIIGS in the trillion + category?
It hasn't been about Greece, it's the rest that they are protecting. I hope the CDS mkt. is destroyed. With $400=700 trillion of these things they are disaster waiting to happen to the entire world as we have posted before and you guys understand and are aware.
They are just gambling devices for GS and big banks...and provide no real insurance in the end as we are seeing now.
btw...Bank of America trying to raise fees "again" to gouge the consumer more for their mistakes.
and....when the funds and investment banks fail to beat the indexes returns..make them work for minimum wage like the rest of us.
They have just became a farce to generate huge fees for big banks. They may have once had an important role, (like Buffett & Florida, only two parties involved and one has cash to back the derivatives) but now they are just gambling. They are a leach to the system, and allows traders to manipulate entire economies. I agree with Rob't here.
A favorite quote
“When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living in society, they create for themselves, in the course of time, a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.”
- Frederic Bastiat, 1801-1850
(Yes, B.Ritholtz quoted this on his blog the other day but I've liked it for a long time prior)
We have arrived (once again).
Remember when Canada vs. Dollar was Cn. .75, USD was $1.00 Then it reversed. Could be a nice trade if you can time it.
http://bit.ly/yHZbUo
"Construction spending eased 0.1% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $827 billion, the first monthly dip since July ..."
http://bit.ly/zf7JAE
HardToLove
http://reut.rs/A5sxVh
http://bit.ly/xPNOYK
It is absolutely brilliant. Now government(s) is going to buy into business directly to complete the circle. There is a word for this type of economic system. Who would have thought Israel would be the first to declare this openly. Will it digress to parliaments putting up slates for boards of directors? We the taxpaying U.S. citizen will be on the hook whether it's corporate or foreign political maleficence. It's all good.
I'm so glad our wise men in 1913 (while most were home for Christmas holidays) snuck through the bill that established the Fed, else what would we do to extend (the pain), pretend (everythings all right http://bit.ly/xjEJ1J;ob=av3e) and suck more wealth from our citizens to feed the avaricious banking system.
I guess that means Eric McCurdy is going to miss this target, which agrees with what I posted a short while back.
From 2/18 http://seekingalpha.co...
I guess that means I'll be wrong too, but at least I'm in good company. If only he'd published about two weeks earlier. I could've avoided being proved wrong again by keeping my trap shut ... Say! You don't think he's been lurking here do you?
Where's my tin-foil hat ...
"Stocks Poised For Another Severe Decline"
http://seekingalpha.co...
HardToLove
Sold CTL at 40 for a 6 point gain and used the profit for 1200 shares of NOK at 5.14 for the 5% dividend.
I think NOK can be a 7 buck stock in 2012 by the 4th quarter.
I keep going back to the original cash amount an hope for a correction. I'm rolling the profits into big dividend payers as the account is a Roth IRA an no real tax considerations.
I see the market being choppy now ,but, the Russel's top 50 stocks are in my opinion the real power stocks to watch ahead of the S&P an DOW symbols and I am playing these with FAS.. I see FAS in the 115 area not too far off.
PS........ I have to vote and this is my choice ! Over Mitt ! Yes sir.
http://bit.ly/zVOQPN
*If* the inverse dollar/equities correlation is in play, look for S&P down. E-mini futures ATM showing -0.20%, $1371.63, suggesting SPX of ~$1374, flat for now. Not huge weakness, but is it the start of a leg or another one-day sag?
But it is early and the futures often move a lot before the pre-market trading starts. Everything could change.
Add in Friday and there's likely some desire in the market to go home flat, JIC something flares again somewhere in the world ...
*if* the mrket *is* following the pattern from 2/11 onward, we need a few days down, a recovery ov about 2/3rds and then a leg down for about two weeks before starting a 6 week climb up again to new a higher high.
If it doesn't start soon, it'll be approaching the start of the summer doldrums and we might just grind down or sideways and not follow the pattern any longer.
Volume on SPY *does* suggest that upward momentum has weakened, even from the weak levels that we're seeing drive price up.
The negtive RSI divergence is still quite strong and other oscillators are showing marked weakness too.
Be alert folks! We need more lerts - they are almost extinct. :-))
HardToLove
http://seekingalpha.co...
Hat tip to Dr. Kris.
http://seekingalpha.co...
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