Seeking Alpha

QuickChat's  Instablog

QuickChat
Send Message
QuickChat manager.
  • QuickChat#233, May 29, 2012 220 comments
    May 29, 2012 12:31 PM

    (click to enlarge)

    "Floridian" by stan bruns

Back To QuickChat's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (220)
Track new comments
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Love "Floridian" above TB. Who or what was your inspiration??
    29 May 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    TB, it is a great piece of art.
    29 May 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I was at the Pensacola Renaissance Faire and needed to start a new demonstration piece for a live demonstration (mainly for kids, but many adults were present as well). Just that morning I had admired a new building going up with a cochina stone facia, and somehow that translated into the crocodilian dragon I sketched looking out of a window in a castle made of cochina (fossilized sea creatures, in Florida they mine it, its easily cut with saws).

     

    The finished piece took me a year to complete, primarily because I decided to finish it completely "live" as an ongoing demonstration at last year's art festivals, and because the stone border is composed of a multitude of individual drops of ink. It was entirely composed "in the ink", meaning there was no pencil sketch or studies done prior to the final drawing. Those dots (called "stipple" in the pen and ink trade, simular to "pointilism" in painting) took a very long time and were tedious even for me.

     

    The piece was something of a miracle, in that the original survived various storms, young children, clumsy adults, and of course myself for a year's constant work on a small, shaky table under an outdoor canopy.

     

    LOL, I often have fun with the more pretentious art show juries when they insist that "...all work displayed must be recent, less than a year old." The inevitable clarifying phone call is fun, when I tell them that I will be glad to present their required 4 samples of my work, but that I would really appreciate their bending their definition of "recent" since many of my better pieces take over a year's work to complete...

     

    In a world of instant gratification, its perhaps inevitable to confront such attitudes and assumptions even among professional art academics.
    29 May 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5074) | Send Message
     
    ' "recent" since many of my better pieces take over a year's work to complete...'

     

    TB - The days when real art took a year or more to complete are long gone. We have become a culture of instantaneous gratification. We want to use all of the available technological "short cuts" to get finished as fast as possible. Unfortunately, true artisans are rarely appreciated anymore.

     

    Nice work!
    29 May 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10319) | Send Message
     
    Just want to stop in and state how enormously cool it is to have a piece of Trip's original artwork, "The Mistrel," suspended over my study fireplace.

     

    It's a terrific piece of work, so detailed, so alive.

     

    And clearly evident how it took a year plus to create.

     

    BTW Trip, the framing I had Michael's do came out fantastic; perfectly matches my study decor, and really captures the Mistrel marvelously; it really pops...it's like you can hear him cooing a delightful melody all the way to the other side of my house!

     

    Hasn't been a day since the Minstrel got hung, that I haven't stood close and appreciated all the work and talent.
    1 Jun 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Maya do you have the old QC # in which the "Mistrel" was featured -- so the rest of us can appreciate it??

     

    mj
    1 Jun 2012, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10319) | Send Message
     
    Mercy: You can see it by going to Trip's profile, and then into his "store." From there you'll find the Minstrel easily. Believe prints are still available.

     

    I have another one of Trip's pieces coming, the "Titmouse Chaple," which Trip knows he can take as long as he needs to finish it.
    1 Jun 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    OK Thanks Maya.
    1 Jun 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I've got an email into Klaus trying to find out how I can get more of his music. His website it a mess. Anyway, his email is klausweiland@hotmail.com. He is an amazing guitarist.

     

    1 Jun 2012, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Thanks TB - wonderful background. I was familiar with coquina rock from FL -- but not with cochina rock -- they appear to have similar characteristics.
    29 May 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    LOL, it is probably properly spelled "coquina", I spelled it phonetically!

     

    I have never been corrected so tactfully! Thank you.
    29 May 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Well my tact also prevented me from telling you that "cochina" means female pig in Spanish. LOL.
    29 May 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Oops. I guess I will have to fix it then!

     

    Thank god I have no ego wrapped up in my obviously poor language skillz!
    29 May 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    With artistic skills like you have -- who needs language skillz!
    29 May 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm, the only way I can fix my original error is to delete everything, so I will just ask everyone to accept my apology and believe me when I say that the dragon in question is neither female nor porcine (he is actually a quite slender male), and the stone in question is what I intended to mention rather than any barnyard slurs.
    29 May 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Greetings all! Great piece of work there TB. Seems it's back to the future. I haven't been on the boards for six weeks or so and when I return it's dejavue all over again. The Greek tragedy is still unfolding in a seemingly endless manner. Everything else seems to be about where it was when I left. Except Face Book LOL. Living in the dirt with the troops was kind of fun for the first two weeks after that not so much. Anything exciting happen while I was away?
    29 May 2012, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Welcome back Robert -- I was wondering where you were as I watched your NCT stock pick keep its firm footing in this volatile market. But, as you suggest -- the same economic and political clips just keep replaying.
    29 May 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    It is nice to see you back, I have been kind of wondering where you went to.
    29 May 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the welcome back. Now I'm playing catch up!
    29 May 2012, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    Welcome back Robert :) It's the same ole, same ole.
    There is a lot to catch up on here though...this is a busy group ! LOL
    29 May 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    The trend has already begun to "reshore jobs":

     

    6:15 PM Ed Yardeni looks at reshoring U.S. jobs due to cheaper energy costs, as truck stops add tanks of LNG because the fuel is so much cheaper than diesel: "Trucks transport roughly three-quarters of American freight, so lower transportation costs could provide a big boost to the economy," adding between a half and a full percentage point to annual GDP growth over the next 10-15 years. [Energy, U.S. Economy] Comment!
    29 May 2012, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5074) | Send Message
     
    I know that Cummins (CMI) has nat gas engines for medium sized trucks and buses (see link below) but I haven't seen anything big enough for the tractor/trailer rigs for over the road. I am sure that they are coming but am not aware of anything yet approved.

     

    http://bit.ly/KR7bmR
    30 May 2012, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    9:08 AM Wells Fargo says the weakness in shares of DryShips (DRYS) could be a key buying opportunity after the company misfired with its Q1 report. Analysts keep the stock lined up with an Outperform rating on their view that the bottom line will improve in the next two quarters. Shares -4.8% premarket. [Consumer, On the Move] Comment!
    30 May 2012, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I don't trust this tribe of analists even as much (which is to say, very little) as I trust the whole species. I would stay away.
    30 May 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    I see an EZ coming either without Germany because they just blocked the EMU bank financing deal, or many countries are on the verge of leaving to save themselves.

     

    SPAIN'S BANKS MAY SINK THE EURO:
    http://bit.ly/KcgEYs
    30 May 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    8:21 AM Visa (V) reports that U.S. payment volume was down 3% Y/Y in April, with negative growth in debit payments dragging down the total. Cross border volume growth rose 13%. [Consumer] Comment!

     

    CHK 8:17 AM Chesapeake Energy (CHK) will meet with many of its major lenders later this week, Reuters reports, as the company scrambles to raise cash to close a $9B-$10B funding shortfall. It's unclear whether the meeting is special or regularly scheduled, but the company is expected to talk about its plans and liquidity needs. CHK -1.2% premarket. [Energy] 1 Comment

     

    Plus: Brazil central bank set to cut interest rates for 7th consecutive
    30 May 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Although the rest of the world seems oblivious, Brazil considers itself to be into the 2nd year of a currency war with the $, euro, and yuan.

     

    The recent weakness of the A$ is another example. The C$ is also suspect, given the situation, though not as vulnerable as the A$ imo.
    30 May 2012, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    True, but won't happen with Germany in the deal:

     

    4:50 AM Europe should be "realistic," devalue its currency and accept painful reforms so it can emerge from this crisis stronger, says Bank of Thailand Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul. Thailand experienced this firsthand, shrinking 10.5% in '98 after setting off the Asian financial crisis, before undertaking radical changes and pulling back to average growth of 4% from 2000-2009. [Global & FX] 3 Comments

     

    Plus: Greece's $130 b in loan help is just paying interest.
    30 May 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    It is amazing that the Euro still carries a higher value than the USD. Even with the current weak Dollar strategy one would think reality will have to intrude here.
    30 May 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    That's what i have said all along Robert.
    30 May 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    So long as Germany and France benefit hugely from their captive markets paying them in overpriced euros, the plantation slaves, er, "fellow eurozone members" will have a hard time reeling in the euro.

     

    Of course, if the US was not sitting on ZIRP and trillions in QE-stuffed 2Bigs as far as the eye can see...

     

    The Euro would be worth about 70 cents.
    30 May 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    Someone else is in your camp too....

     

    10:57 AM The amazing thing to us is why hasn't the euro gone to 90, Mark Mobius tells Bloomberg TV. Patience. New levels are being taken out all over as Europe slides to session lows (taking the S&P with it). The Stoxx 50, -2.1%, is at a new YTD low. The euro sees a $1.23 handle, off about 1000 pips just this month. Good news for consumers: Oil -3.3% to $87.78. Comment! [Global & FX, Commodities]
    30 May 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Turns out that news that the ECB (at Germany's behest) had scotched plans to recapitalize Bankia were false:

     

    http://tgr.ph/LTbQow

     

    Look for another whipsaw in the markets.
    30 May 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Enough already! Put them into a packaged bankruptcy letting them fail and sell off their assets to whomever will buy them. That should be the new global policy regarding TBTF institutions. All that this recapitalizing accomplishes is allowing them to continue the waltz with OPM. Their fundamental problems aren't being solved and the citizenry isn't being served.
    30 May 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2409) | Send Message
     
    June is going to be an interesting month.

     

    Supreme Court decision and a potential conflict in the ME. ( the 2 II's)

     

    The conflict looks like a gimmee. The Saudii's have 80 million brls of floating storage having filled same with excess capacity sitting outside the Strait of H. Our Stockpiles are at 22 year hi's and SPR talk abounds. Plus, someone don't remember who, Kuwait I think, has a pipeline ready to open in June which also bypasses the Strait.

     

    Meanwhile, What if the SC sides with Obama?

     

    What happens to International earnings when the Euro's weakness hits the Qrtrly reports, I expect expectations to be lowered starting in June.

     

    Suggest looking at QTWW, I own and am down but not out.

     

    TC
    30 May 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Yup, I think we are going to see some real fireworks in Mid-June. Dry powder is a must.
    30 May 2012, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Which ever way the SCOTUS decides the fire works will be immediate. Should the high court uphold the individual mandate the market and broader economy will remain flat and efforts to elect those who would repeal it will redouble. If they strike it down in it's entirety the market and economy will spike as the tax schemes in the law will go away with it. Supporters will begin demonizing the high court instantly and the OWS will start a violent riot campaign as much as they are able. What happens if they take a middle road only striking down the mandate but leaving other parts of it?
    30 May 2012, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    IMO, if it is repealed entirely then Pharma, Healthcare, Hospital, and Health insurance companies tank. It is estimated that it will cost this group about $1 trillion in revenues. Uninsured can't pay and insurance companies need the extra premium income of healthy young people to offset baby boomers my age.

     

    The real question is as you left it "What happens if they take a middle road only striking down the mandate but leaving other parts of it?"
    The supreme court is probably going to take a hit either way or any way that they rule. The entire country is too divided on issues that have become unresolvable / uncompromisable and as a result as you said the other side will die retaliating.
    Personally, I don't care which way they go, I just want them to either keep it all or repeal it all and do it unanimously. Any other way and the Supreme Court will lose much credibility if it goes down party lines on the vote. I am really afraid they try to strike down the mandate and leave the rest.
    30 May 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    Moreover, if the SCOTUS strikes it down, BHO will *again* claim that it's unprecedented for them to overturn a legislative law! The fact that it's totally erroneous will not matter to this supposed former professor of constitutional law.

     

    He'll probably scrounge around for some way to skirt the decision.

     

    I assume he counts on the ignorance engendered in the general population by the revisionist and incomplete history provided by our federally controlled (in fact if not in theory, due to purse strings and other "tools" of the feds) "education system".

     

    HardToLove
    30 May 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    SCOTUS can only rule on the case brought before them. The primary item challenged on Constitutional grounds involves the individual mandate - any states rights aspects are very weak in comparison. I have never believed that they would strike down the whole bill, particularly since huge swathes of it are really not directly related to the Constitutional challenges at all (or, LOL, related to healthcare for that matter).

     

    Removing the primary funding method would, of course, leave it as a crippled piece of unenforceable legislation for those elements lying downstream of and dependent upon that funding.

     

    I am doubtful as to the impact it would have upon the investment prospects for the hospital chains, insurance companies, HMO's, etc. There has been no certainty that the income from large numbers of current uninsureds would, indeed, flow to these companies (which doubt is not least of all created by the SCOTUS challenge), and lacking certainty I doubt how much of this hopium gravy train is currently baked into those pies. For that matter, neither is the downside of the bill, ie, the requirement to provide instant coverage on demand, even for pre-existing conditions, which would have been a severe money drain for the same insurers.

     

    As an investment impact, if the SCOTUS DOES uphold the bill's Constitutionality, THEN we could expect to see the true impact on share prices, as doubts are removed and true calculations get built into the various players.
    30 May 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5074) | Send Message
     
    TB - In some cases I think that at least a portion of the expected (hoped for) benefits for certain health care companies are baked into prices, but not all. If scuttled I think there will be some companies that take hits, but the overall impact should be somewhat muted because, as you say the uncertainty prevails in most cases. It appears to me that some hospitals, insurance companies (some, but not all), and health tech companies have gotten a boost from the proposed legislation. But even in those cases I doubt that the full impact is baked in so, again, even those that have benefited will probably experience muted negative impacts to share price, imo.
    30 May 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    Euro below $1.24 now. I look for this crisis to start picking up speed soon.
    30 May 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I look for the EU to start printing money like mad while simultanesously supporting Spain with the proceeds.
    30 May 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    Global "protectionism" has already begun:

     

    10:54 AM Sensible regulatory scrutiny or trade protectionism? The EU is reportedly gathering evidence proving Chinese IT/telecom equipment giants Huawei and ZTE (ZTCOY.PK) have benefited from government subsidies, and plans to take action (ed: Chinese solar vendors can probably sympathize). The companies (Huawei especially) have been taking share from Euro telecom equipment vendors such as ALU, ERIC, and NOK thanks to aggressive pricing and a win-at-all-costs attitude. Comment! [Tech]
    30 May 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    The mask is slipping. Enemy nation states masquerading as friendly capitalist corporations are losing their protective camouflage...

     

    But it took real economic damage and a fiat currency crisis to force the leaders to notice the Emperor's naked body.
    30 May 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2333) | Send Message
     
    China, as presently governed, is not a competitor, it's a predator. They deserve any and all retaliation for their total disregard of their own laws relating to Chinese company theft of foreign company property.
    31 May 2012, 12:22 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    This mkt, is downright nasty today. All red & getting worse. Sometimes I think I should just be 100% cash. Maybe bury it in the back yard :)

     

    Even with the sell off, I do not see one stock I want to own for a while or at least buy quite a bit cheaper. I see nothing close to a bargain yet.
    30 May 2012, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    I agree LT... the lower the Euro goes relative to the US dollar, the lower the markets will go. The ones I am watching have to drop a lot more before I start buying. My one exception is oil. It's dropping because of the general economic condition, but than we have Iran on the sideline. I started accumulating oil a few days ago in $2,500 increments.
    30 May 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    "I started accumulating oil a few days ago in $2,500 increments."

     

    Thanks for sharing that...I have been watching too.
    30 May 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    LT, I guess this means I don't need to update my tracking of the altenergy/Chinese stocks this month? Its been another month since the last such...
    30 May 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Oil is fasinating. I am thinking $79 is a distinct short term possibility, but it won't stay there very long.
    30 May 2012, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    LOL ... nah don't update them, just buy them this summer while there is blood in the streets. (pay no attention to TB on this subject guys, he just has to rub it in, because of me mentioning a "basket" of them a while back)
    30 May 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    OK. For the record, I DO think some of them might be worth looking at now, or at least, soon...

     

    Though I still shun Chinese companies.
    30 May 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    12:39 PM The gang in the gold and silver pits may be sniffing something out as both metals sharply reverse significant early losses to turn higher. Gold now up 1% to $1.564, silver up 0.9% to $28.04. Other sensitive commodities like oil and copper remain at session lows. Comment! [Commodities]

     

    Gold mining stocks also higher today. Could be something to it.
    30 May 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    That's another one I am watching. I would like to start buying gold at 1501... probably not going to happen, but that's where I am now.
    30 May 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    There is an article every day touting MSFT...the title of this one is funny...I am long MSFT
    http://bit.ly/KsMiiq
    30 May 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    KFT just floated $6 billion cheap for their company break up / spin off. There is a lot more to the article on basis points paid. I am long KFT.

     

    May 30 (IFR) - In a day when investment sentiment was completely risk-off, Kraft Foods demonstrated the continued liquidity of the US investment grade market by raising $6 billion through a four-tranche senior unsecured deal.
    Source is Reuters, I can't post a link.
    30 May 2012, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    I have a question for you guys.... re: EZ exits

     

    Lets say Greece left the euro, printed a ton of drachma's, and the dropped 50% the first day...and their debt was paid off,
    vs.
    Staying in the EZ, starving under German rule & austerity and the $Euro dropping from $140 down to $70-90 (parity to the USD$) ?

     

    to me, the currency is going to drop anyway. So why endure the pain and they will never be able to even pay the interest the way it is now?
    Same for Italy & Spain.
    30 May 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    From what we've read recently, history indicates that the "default" scenario is most beneficial to the defaulting country as GDP and living standards start to recover strongly in just a couple of years.

     

    The drachma(conian) measures for an austerity scenario that must be applied when they are this far gone can not, AFAIU, save them anyway now. All it does is transfer more wealth from the population to others, who may not be so deserving, and delay the real recovery for the population.

     

    HardToLove
    30 May 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >LT ... Without a federal structure for the EZ, there is no other choice but to do one of 2 things. Nationalize the sovereign banks and break them up or break up the unified monetary system. The Euro could be kept as a trade/reserve security among member nations but I doubt that. Our FED would have a hissy fit over that and it would be just one more game for Jamie & Co. to play.

     

    Derivatives are, have been & will continue to be the problem for solvency. Until this dark pool is addressed ... we're doomed to support the status quo.
    30 May 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    We have bankruptcy laws. Perhaps we should try using them? It couldn't be much worse than what has transpired to date now could it? Oh that's right the wealth of the wealthy must be preserved at the expense of all others in the new world order right? Let them fail along with the TBTF banks that they helped to create!
    30 May 2012, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    From the start I have championed the idea that Greece had a viable alternative in leaving the EZ. I strongly suspect that this has now occurred to most of its political leadership, and even the masses. The re-election coming up soon should show support for those parties which echo this idea, though the question remains whether they will be able to stop squabbling long enough to form some sort of coalition government.
    31 May 2012, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    Dr. Rich I agree with you on the derivative deal, they are the problem and as HTL said the population suffers for the benefit of a few.

     

    If it were up to me, I would do the deal, zero debt, bankrupt the banks one day and re-open them the next with no derivatives. Let the chips fall where they may on who else takes a fall. If other derivative players go broke, then so be it. They should not be gambling on them anyway. They are in no way or form a "hedge" and have not been for years.

     

    A very wise person in my town once told me when I started buying bonds:
    "Buy the best quality, tax free usually, and put them in a lockbox until they mature. Do not trade and speculate on or with them". He was ever so correct.
    30 May 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    You should read this article from a retired SC judge on the impact of the campaign finance ruling for corporations. Especially note the impact of "out of state corporate money" that influences "local" issues.
    http://yhoo.it/L0BmWj
    31 May 2012, 05:49 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    When the door is opened for entry by one entity it becomes very difficult to bar the door to others. Look at the WI recall for an example. The unions brought in outside cash and bussed in protestors from out of state. One group can't be barred without barring the other. Thus it becomes a question of disallowing them all or giving them all equal treatment.
    31 May 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    86 handle on Oil.
    31 May 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I'm thinking we see 79 before the panic ebbs.
    31 May 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    We said this 2 months ago, what is the deal with the last part of covering mean ?

     

    10:42 AM Bearish positioning towards the euro remains at extreme levels, according to the CitiFX Positioning Indicator. Adding to the usual reasons for being short euros is talk the SNB - a buyer of the euro vs. the franc - is covering itself by selling euros vs. the dollar (probably just talk as this doesn't make a whole lot of sense). The euro is flat at $1.2372. Comment! [Global & FX]
    31 May 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    They are divesting themselves of Euros in favor of USD. They anticipate further erosion of the value of the Euro VS the USD. With the global economy slowing and the potential for a massive flight to the perceived safety of USD and USD denominated assets it makes sense.
    31 May 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    If this scenario plays out, we could also see a detachment of the American equity markets from the European bourses. Days when Europe's markets tank, while ours sail along or even go up. This would be an indication of massive capital flight from Europe to the US.
    31 May 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Agree TB and I think it is already happening judging from exchanges I have w/ SA pen pals in EU. If the trend continues -- the anticipated bounce will be just in time for election day window dressing in the fall.
    31 May 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2409) | Send Message
     
    QTWW has a lighter, larger than anything else out there CNG fuel tank. It is receiving orders and uses a Lithium battery.

     

    It has already done its funding.
    31 May 2012, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Here are a couple of worthwhile reads:

     

    1) Phil Davis underscores how the USD rise lowers valuations for US equities and notes that the 5.4% USD rise in May is equivalent to a 64%+ return on an annualized basis -- so staying heavy USD cash has paid off in added $$buying power on a relative basis http://bit.ly/L05krM

     

    2) And Matthew Bradbards perspective on commodities is one I follow and respect, and this is his latest take on where gold is going: http://bit.ly/JUb4Fz
    31 May 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    Some numbers out of Spain:
    12:09 PM Capital outflow from Spain hit €66.2B in March, the largest amount since records began being kept in 1990 and against a €5.4B inflow a year ago. This is March data, and the early word for April shows a continuation of the trend. The country's deposit base is about €1.6T. [Global & FX, Financials] Comment!

     

    Brazil :
    12:59 PM More on the fund manager survey: Money flowing out of Brazil is moving elsewhere in Latin America as fund managers are overweight Chile, Mexico, and Colombia. Also popular are Taiwan and India. Countries underweight: China, Thailand, Russia South Korea, and Turkey. [Global & FX] Comment!

     

    Citi analyst response:
    11:59 AM "Risk appetite is just completely gone out," says Citi's Gregg Anderson as the 10-year Treasury yield falls to a record 1.53%. Extreme levels are seemingly everywhere. Those who are long Treasurys, long Bunds, long Gilts, or short euros need to ask themselves how long they expect the central banks to sit on their hands. 3 Comments
    31 May 2012, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    The answer is a question:

     

    WHICH central banks?

     

    Most of the 2nd tier CB's have been fighting the currency wars like made for years now, so presumably it not them they are questioning...

     

    The ECB and other major European banks (particularly Germany, but also France and the UK) are the primary targets, of course, plus the Fed (which is always mixed up in everything), particularly the Fed due to the gathering storm pushing resources into dollars from around the globe.

     

    The dramatic drop in the 10year bonds is the surest sign of just how many folks see a storm a'comin'.
    31 May 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    "The dramatic drop in the 10year bonds is the surest sign of just how many folks see a storm a'comin'"

     

    You got that right . I think it will be ALL central banks...there was a 4 way con. call yesterday with Germany, France, Spain leaders with Obama....he was discussing the lack of dealing with the situation.

     

    The EZ is dragging the world down...I expect that is what Merkel wants. To the point that the world has to share in their pain and bail them out instead of the EZ dealing with it.
    After all Germany has zero% rates now, nice growth, no employment problem...tell me why they want change? or should their people bail out europe ?
    31 May 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2333) | Send Message
     
    >LT: If the Euro inflates then Germany will pay more for most of it's raw materials needed for its industrial base. It will get NO improvement in income from selling goods to other EU members.

     

    Of course they want someone else to give the EU money rather than print their own!
    31 May 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    If Germany were to leave the euro, the mark would somewhat skyrocket, killing their exports, and you right they would not sell many goods to the rest of the EZ.
    that is what has everything on hold....they really have a catch 22 and most of the anti-bailout crowd (public) in Germany really does not know the consequences. They would probably have unemployment rise like ours did in '08.
    31 May 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    The EZ in general is between a rock and a hard place. I'm sure that President Obama would just love to shovel a couple of $T into the EZ as they did on the QT during the melt down. His problem is that there is an election pending with an obdurate electorate which is dead set against that course of action. He may try some clandestine method of shoring things up until after the election but such a course of action is fraught with peril for his election prospects. I'm sure his EZ counterparts were begging him to do something because as stated before they are unwilling or unable to resolve this on their own without serious consequences. He probably told them he will have more flexibility after he's reelected just as he told the Russians.
    31 May 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    From the beginning Voldemort and his Death Eaters (particularly Eater Geithner) have maintained that all was fine, and that the Europeans had "...plenty of resources..." to handle the problems with the eurozone.

     

    I believe they are actually surprised to see Europe's effete elite scampering to their door looking for another bailout...
    31 May 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2333) | Send Message
     
    >trip: They are politicians! Eurocrats have no more pride or honor then American pols when an election is to be won or lost. Winning is more important then ANYTHING else.

     

    "Big Democracy" is broken.
    1 Jun 2012, 02:30 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    Your gonna get a tax increase no matter who is elected:
    McConnell open to "revenue increases"
    http://bit.ly/N2XvrD
    1 Jun 2012, 05:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    (TAMO): I know we have some interest in this.

     

    Any opinions?

     

    "... binding agreement with CEC Carbonate Energy PLC, ("CEC") our farm in partner, to combine the assets of oil sands leases held by both companies ..."

     

    "... structured on a put and call basis so that when these 2 events are completed, the transaction closes. The first leases will be transferred effective immediately into escrow in exchange for the put and call transaction and the fixing of the North Star share price effective today".

     

    Lots of interesting details and considerations laid out.

     

    http://mwne.ws/Nnq690

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jun 2012, 06:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Fascinating stuff, HTL. I am long (but not overweight at the moment, I was just about to add some large trading blocs at $.18 if price and volume would let me). The NorthStar share price set at $1.76 is interesting, but they aren't telling us how Tamm shares will be affected. Tamm is putting up 1.3billion in situ barrels of oil, which is roughly 45% of its oil sand assets, and moving its HQ to Alberta... Tilghe is the new COO of NorthStar, and his buddy is on the board, but the impact on the TAMO shareholders is murky to me right now.

     

    I would agree that the remaining assets of Tamm, now more firmly tied to CEC and NorthStar, will become more valuable, but will that alone be enough to offset losing 45% of its oil sand assets? I doubt it, and this deal requires authorization of the shareholders to go forward...

     

    CEC is putting over $162million into the pot, which seems like a lot of money, but 1.3billion barrels of oil is a lot of oil, too...

     

    If there is no remuneration for TAMO shareholders, this would be a no-go. Assuming the TAMO oil is roughly equivalent to the $162million from the other side, this would value the TAMO contribution at about half the $1.76/share set for NorthStar. In that case, I should think that as many as half (though more likely something like 30% due to the consideration that CEC also brings other traditional oil producing assets to the deal) of the new shares should flow to TAMO shareholders.

     

    Since we do not know how many NorthStar shares are being created, or precisely the value of the other properties contributed by CEC, its impossible to render anything more than a crude estimate...

     

    But I somehow believe they will attempt to sell the deal to the TAMO shareholders with no remuneration other than the speculation that the 55% of the remaining assets will increase in value in some way because of the new association with NorthStar.

     

    I find this prospect disturbing.

     

    We will see...
    1 Jun 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    TY sir. Since I'm so ignorant about the space in general and the intricacies of the TAMM folks' relationships among the various entities and how these things can be ... "played", you thoughts are very valuable to me.

     

    Appreciate you taking the time.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jun 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Took profits on TAMO at $.24 today. About 20% of my position.
    1 Jun 2012, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Booking profits on a 275 pt. drop day -- now that's impressive! Good play TB.
    2 Jun 2012, 06:25 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I wish I could take credit, but it just fell out of the sky.

     

    I may look like a dummy if those shares pop to $.60 next week, but I have doubts about this deal. It could implode very easily, imo.
    2 Jun 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/LZOvOw

     

    Oil sands from a more philosophical perspective.
    3 Jun 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    TAMO down to $.22...
    5 Jun 2012, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I would suggest that anyone not familiar with the passion play centered around Tilghe look over events at a prior effort, Cougar or COUGE. Nasty. In that case he ran afoul of Canadian regulators who shut down their 8 producing wells until the posting of an additional $700k bond. By the time this was accomplished, they were unable to restart 4 of the 8 wells...

     

    And it quickly augered into bankruptcy from there.

     

    I would frankly be happier with a straight joint venture or sale of assets rather than this merger which takes care of management first.

     

    I still doubt that the deal will be authorized by the shareholders, unless a sizeable chunk of the cash flows to the shareholders.
    5 Jun 2012, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    84 Handle on oil.
    1 Jun 2012, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    68k jobs created expected 158k I think that is the largest miss I have seen in two years, but I can't remember for sure. unemployment ticked up 8.2%.
    1 Jun 2012, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Yup! That's the setup for the next QE which they wanted in place before the next election.
    1 Jun 2012, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    Just so we have a record of what was reported.

     

    "U.S. adds 69,000 jobs in May; jobless rate 8.2%"
    http://on.mktw.net/Jyi5uj

     

    "U.S. savings rate inches lower in April"
    http://on.mktw.net/JRjEtr

     

    And in a reversal, S&P futures and USD down together while LT treasuries gain.

     

    "Treasurys gain, dollar pares gain after payrolls"
    http://on.mktw.net/Jyi5uq

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jun 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I agree, now the QE debate in the Fed starts in earnest.

     

    August looks likely...
    1 Jun 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    Probably before Aug. IMO, QE-3 is a given. Just not sure of what form.
    1 Jun 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    The longer they wait, the better the pop.
    1 Jun 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    This was posted over in the Stability Of The European Union (13) News Concentrator by Maya. I reposted it here so it could get the much wider circulation in the QC.

     

    Mayascribe:
    Kind Folks: Talked to my Wells Fargo Senior Advisor earlier this week. A couple weeks before, my broker told me that Sen. Bob Casey, a democrat from PA, called him (I find that fact pretty cool!).

     

    I don't know what all went down during the conversation, but Sen. Casey stated to my broker that he did not foresee the Bush tax cuts NOT being extended.

     

    It seems "fiscal cliff" will get lots of media play during the next two quarters. But now we have some info from someone important inside the beltway, a democrat, that believes the Bush Tax cuts WILL be extended for maybe six months to as long as a year.

     

    Also, my broker believes there will be no QE3 later this year, no matter what Europe does.

     

    Plan accordingly.
    1 Jun 2012, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5074) | Send Message
     
    I also noted that the previous two months' jobs reports were adjusted downward by a total of 49,000. That means the actual net increase in jobs in the report was only 20,000.
    1 Jun 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5074) | Send Message
     
    And they wouldn't want the "pop" to wane before the election. Timing is everything!
    1 Jun 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Yes K202 -- and when one factors part-time jobs as an increasing variable in job growth -- the numbers look even more anemic:

     

    SA 6/1/12
    10:56 AM U.S. job growth is coming entirely from workers getting part-time jobs. The number of Americans working full-time fell by 266K in May, erasing all the gains of the past three months; total employment rose only because 618K more people got part-time jobs. People classified as “part time for economic reasons" - i.e., they can’t find a full-time job - jumped 245K to 8.1M. [U.S. Economy] 1 Comment
    1 Jun 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Full time jobs are vanishing from the service and retail sector like drops of water on a hot griddle. A quick sizzling sound, and "poof" they are gone.

     

    As government (say "Obamacare" and then shout "amen" my children) adds layers of razor wire and landmines to the business landscape for full time, permanent jobs, the reaction to these events should not be surprise, but "so, what else is new?"
    1 Jun 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    Hey LT,

     

    From some previous posts you had I thought you were on the side of thinking there would not be QE-3? Did I misinterpret, or did something change your mind?

     

    thanks
    2 Jun 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    You misinterpreted....I have always thought they would have to do it.
    2 Jun 2012, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    Gotcha. I must have took your bearish view on AG, Food commodities, land and gold as an indication you did not believe in another QE.
    2 Jun 2012, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Look at Gold and Silver... the smart money is moving in.
    1 Jun 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Interesting chart - it would appear that the dollar index has now recovered to the point immediately before QE2 last year. Looking around, conditions are quite similar, now we will see if the Fed repeats history.

     

    Precious metals are looking very strong today, but I am expecting a counter-attack from the fiat guys and their henchmen running the commodity exchanges, be cautious...
    1 Jun 2012, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >tripleblack ... Don't you think the "deer in headlights" just stand and allow thing to slide until June 17th? There is no real reason, I see, to "fix" things until it is known which front the battle is going to fought on. It does make sense to let the panic pass. Then pump in enough money to stabilize while the PR machine spins out the next believable party line.

     

    I wonder if metals can stand up if the next line of attack is deflation.
    1 Jun 2012, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    In this case the deer anology works best for the Europeans, who are indeed frozen at the moment.

     

    The Fed might make an announcement (or a trial balloon, which is perhaps more likely) later this month or July, with action to follow, again perhaps in August.

     

    Oh, I don't think the fed will make a move just yet. I posted earlier a comment about August, and this only reinforces that opinion. The Idea of "protecting" American interests by providing huge liquidity to the Europeans (so they can avoid printing their own money) is another example of the Fed moving while the Europeans fail to act.

     

    I think both scenarios are likely, though of course by no means certain.
    1 Jun 2012, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >tripleblack .. I don't know how far afield you read but this little ditty is one good reason we might be looking at that deer.

     

    http://bit.ly/NqDYz6

     

    There is a lot more in the EU media that lays this out. Should scare the crap out of the oligarchs no matter which way it goes. The idea of the status quo i.e. middle of the bond vigilante road is coming to an end. Choice is boiling down to right ditch or left.
    1 Jun 2012, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    Germany is having it's hand called.. in a big way. I imagine the cc with big "O" yesterday gave some of them more confidence and backbone.

     

    9:29 AM "Let's start printing euros ourselves," former Italian PM Berlusconi tells party members. "Germany should leave the euro if it doesn't agree with the ECB serving as a lender of last resort." Comment! [Global & FX]
    1 Jun 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Markets are in freefall mode. Loads of fear and loathing, and no reassurance from the national leadership at all.

     

    Tough week ahead. Could we see 1100's for the S&P? Yes, and quickly if the current dread just keeps hanging there with no resolution.

     

    Look for the HFT's to strike, hard, while they still have enough lemmings trapped in the slaughter yard.

     

    Buying opps are appearing, and I believe will strengthen over the coming days. Time to polish your projections and pick your targets...

     

    As the military would say: "Its a target rich environment".

     

    Will Apple be available at a 4 PE? Could happen.

     

    Will major oil sell off in the wake of $79 WTI (and we may even see parity with Brent)? I think so.

     

    Will commodities start to come back as money printing sweeps the planet? Yes.
    1 Jun 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Rubbing my paws together for the target rich environment.
    1 Jun 2012, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    The lower bollenger for the SPX is around 1280, the 200 day MA is around 1285.
    1 Jun 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    FPA, lots of Algos appear to be using 1284 as break point and we are testing it now. If breaks -- drop could be much bigger.
    1 Jun 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    I am wondering if the plunge protection team will be activated, or is it in their interest to let it drop.
    1 Jun 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    i don't think they step in until the EZ makes a move.
    1 Jun 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Hit 1282 so far today...

     

    Europeans are still standing around hypnotized by the oncoming French and Greek elections...

     

    They are all acting schizoid.

     

    One side of the body wants to dart to the left to avoid getting crushed...

     

    The other side wants to dart to the right...

     

    So the whole thing ends up immobilized, quivering in the middle of the road.

     

    Its surreal.
    1 Jun 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    I did not think we would see it (if we didn't in '08 & '09) but I do think the last line is not far off....Germany is at zero% now, the USA is next at 0% on some time limited bonds.

     

    9:58 AM Boston Fed President Rosengren suggests a continuation of Operation Twist beyond June would be appropriate given his opinion the central bank needs to provide more stimulus. "That would have the impact of helping to reduce longer-term interest rates without expanding our balance sheet," he says. The 10-year is at 1.5% - what does he want? Japan? 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
    1 Jun 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    Caught 1.44% already this A.M., briefly, per Santelli. Came back to 1.46%. IIRC!

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jun 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    The EZ crisis this time has a different feel to me and a totally different tone to it. With leaders publicly slamming Germany for resisting, is different than whispers behind closed doors 1:1 in private.

     

    It's kinda like, if YOU have a problem, most of us don't care. When your problem affects me or becomes our problem, we want something done asap. There are 20+ countries affected now and the mkt. is pushing them faster & harder. Cash flows out of countries is a huge risk.
    Friday is a good day to send them a message, the DIA down 200 pts. and we will see the mkt. hit overdrive this month without resolution. They now have the weekend to work behind closed doors.
    June will be an interesting month.
    1 Jun 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Irish voters approved a new European Union treaty aimed at forcing national governments to respect the region's budget rules. With all 43 of the country's constituencies reporting, 60.3% of voters cast a "yes" vote, while 39.7% voted "no,"
    1 Jun 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Oh my...

     

    Obama Ordered The "Code Stux"
    http://tinyurl.com/cf6...

     

    I am not surprised that it was done, I am surprised that the NYT published this.
    1 Jun 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • AnglicoTrader
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
     
    FPA - this (the Obama article) is remarkable if true.
    1 Jun 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    That's what I thought Angilco... I would think most countries would consider a cyber attack against key infrastructure components as an act of war. Of course, we don't know if its true, but there have to be international repercussions from that article. That's why I was surprised that it got published. How does a leak like that even happen? Heads are going to roll over this.
    1 Jun 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    The odds are excellent that:

     

    1. Its a fake, planted by political operatives seeking to damage Voldemort's re-election bid.

     

    2. Its real, and was leaked by individuals in the government for the same motives noted in #1 above.

     

    3. Its misdirection, planted by the Mossad to shift blame from the Israelis who probably DID do the deed.

     

    4. Its half true, and we may never know the whole truth.

     

    Regardless, the timing (long distant from events in Iran, but very near a presidential election) is suspect.
    1 Jun 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    or is it an attempt to elicit a reaction from Iran providing a causa belli?
    1 Jun 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Possible, though I suspect that Mossad has better contacts on the NYT than does Iranian intelligence.
    1 Jun 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps the Mossad planted the report for the purpose of eliciting some wild reaction from Iran against the US.
    1 Jun 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Sorry FPA, I read your post again:

     

    Voldemort WANTS to entice the Iranians into a "reaction"?

     

    Destroying a nuclear carrier left sitting in an Arabian both tub would do the trick...

     

    There's a lure if there ever was one.
    1 Jun 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >tripleblack ... How very NeoCon of you. Do you really think China is going to finance the destruction of their cheapest oil supply?
    1 Jun 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    DR: Good grief, did you not read my response at all? I think, first and second priority, that its a dirty trick attempt to hurt Voldemort's election chances. Nowhere do I voice support of the rumor.

     

    I'm no more a neocon than you are. If you paid attention, you would know that. I hate the Republicrats just as much as the Demicans. If Bush (unlike Voldemort, I have never found that I am haunted by hordes of trolls if I use his real name, which appropriately is a common landscaping supply, similar to "manure") were still in office I would list the same list, with the same likely motives (and probably with the same stupid tactical and strategic errors, too). I battled hard against invading Iraq back when, unlike the Demicans who were climbing all over one another to get out in front of cameras to show support (like a terrarium full of young turtles).
    1 Jun 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >tripleblack .. I apologize. I missed the question mark. I have no quibble with the list of possibilities although I don't think the Israelis have the network capabilities of the NSA. I'd bet the USA did it (now who wrote the code?).

     

    Again sorry. Showing my site bias. I'll try to not skim read so fast.
    1 Jun 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Its all good. I think I'm just a grumpy investor today for some reason...
    1 Jun 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    I think history is going to show Bush as one of the most compassionate presidents of our time (I am not kidding)

     

    1. He is not liked by cons. because he spent too much money on education, poor, and regulations paving the way for people who couldn't afford houses to have houses etc.

     

    2. He is not liked by liberals and some cons. because he went to Iraq to remove a dictator with access to lots of oil and to Afghanistan to bring a people living in the middle-ages, I mean middle-east, running water, education and electricity. When you strip it away his motivation in both places was sparked by the notion that if you encouraged the industrialization and modernization of Afghan. and democracy in Iraq that the fanatics would begin to lose and sensible people would emerge abandoning there tendencies of poisoning a girls school, chopping off heads, and blowing themselves up for virgins.

     

    Of course, all these things benefit the US but removing oil out of the hands of a dictator benefitted the entire world.

     

    I do believe time (perhaps lots of it) will show that he took the first courageous steps in bringing peace and more prosperity to the middle-east.

     

    For the record, I did not vote for him once, but now wish I had.
    1 Jun 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >jakurtz ... WOW! You're really hittin' it hard today.
    1 Jun 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    Drich :-):-)

     

    Within the next 15 years Iraq will be the fastest growing nation in the Middle-east and while Afghanistan may not be a burgeoning society of sophistry women will receive an education and not be stoned for it.

     

    Whether people will be willing to give Bush credit for initiating those two developments remains to be seen and while people will still claim it was only done for big oil's selfish gains the increased prosperity for the majority in those countries will be undeniable.

     

    P.S. This is on-topic because it argues at some point in the not-too-distant future Iraq will be an investment opportunity.
    2 Jun 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >tripleblack ... Grumpy today? If what Mayascribe passed through from his broker is true .... NO MORE QE ... days like this are marvelous. It bring us one day closer to a solution. I have no faith that the ECB or FED won't come riding to the "rescue" and make the end of Supply-Side even more painful, but I can hope Capitalism isn't dead.
    1 Jun 2012, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    Might be no more actual QE. But if there is the implied statement by the fed somewhere that there will be QE then that may be good enough to support the equity market.
    2 Jun 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Voldemort is now calling upon the US Congress to protect the US from Europe...

     

    Hmmm.

     

    Last time I heard this sort of thing, it involved Y2K and was followed with trillions of liquidity added to the banking system "...just in case".

     

    First official hint at QE, if not to benefit our friends in southern Europe, but then to protect us from their problems.

     

    Clever...
    1 Jun 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2147) | Send Message
     
    While I wish I could use critical thinking to determine what our so called leaders will or won't do, I remain stymied by the unintended repercussions of their previous actions. It is sad to think that these smartest guys in the room have no more clue what to do than I do (a card carrying member of the great unwashed). I think there may be a delaying action going on to slow the descent into depression that will only amplify the depth and length. The pols of both stripes as well as the entrenched bureaucrats will give us more of the same. Looks like the blame and numbers games are about to implode. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think so.
    1 Jun 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    Another thought I had yesterday after reading an article about Goldman Sachs seeing the biggest opportunities in Europe and it not being in equities; then reading that Spain has more time until Oct. to raise $10B. Spain needs $10B, Goldman is looking at Europe for the best opportunities...hmmm?

     

    http://on.wsj.com/NpbJky

     

    http://on.wsj.com/KxUqOC
    1 Jun 2012, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    The S&P closed today below its 200 day MA.
    1 Jun 2012, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5074) | Send Message
     
    Dow did too and the Nasdaq looks like it's right on it or maybe slightly below. Monday will be telling, imo. If da boyz don't support the market here it could be nasty again.
    1 Jun 2012, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    Market will probably go up based on some rumor. Nothing directly stated. Either here in the US but more likely in Europe.
    2 Jun 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    It might go up too just because the yield in dividends is now *way* above anything not in junk bond territory. Add in the the PE multiple will be even more attractive than what was being pumped over the last two years ...

     

    Add in the outflows from the mutual funds. *If* sell side is successful in convincing the multiply-burned retail investor that *now* is the time ...

     

    Of course, they won't mention that we seem likely to be entering a worldwide recession right now and prices can tank even further yet.

     

    Another successful shearing will take place.

     

    Let's hope that the retail investor realizes that the kicking the can game has solved *no* problems and there is still high risk. Then maybe the architects of this mess we're in will learn something for a change.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jun 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • JeffLeach1986
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/L5zMTc

     

    Wonder if this is the blade of grass that Europe is trying to grab before falling off the cliff monday morning. Should be a rally.
    3 Jun 2012, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Other than the Soros component (he is chaos wrapped in a 3 week old breakfast burrito), this sounds about right.

     

    Toss in some followup on the new initiative by Voldemort to palm off one of his more difficult duties as Chief Executive (after all, he's busy campaigning) onto Congress (ie, to protect the US from Euorpean debt problems, hey, maybe Hillary should report to the Speaker of the House under the new Constitution?)...

     

    Monday could be really, really weird.
    3 Jun 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    Another republican signs on for tax revenue increases..this one with more clout....
    I am telling you they are aligning the stars for a massive tax revenue increase to go soon as they win the white house...Kinda odd after rejecting them for 4 years while deficits soared.
    http://bloom.bg/LbCTwV
    2 Jun 2012, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it...

     

    Ronald Reagan fell for the "...I'll pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today..." promise of future spending cuts for tax increases now. Also a similar promise about immigration, amnesty, immigration reform, and border security...

     

    Jeb Bush is obviously no scholar of history, either, though I expect that unspoken behind these musings is the assumption that Republicrats will secure a solid majority in the Senate this election... Though as we have seen in the past, placing too much faith in the fortitude of politicians to cut spending in modern Washington (regardless which party rules which levers of power) is naive.

     

    There are others who remember history, but we will see if they have any influence post-election.

     

    My advice to the new President would be to accept the spending cuts first, and discuss tax increases after.

     

    Reagan at a later date did seem to learn something from the lies: Trust but verify.
    2 Jun 2012, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    TEA Party cndidates are winning a surprising number of Republican primarries this year. Should these candidates win in the general election there is a good chance that at least some of them will resist being coopted by the party establishment. There are a number of them who will also be pushing for amendments for a ballanced budget and congressional term limits. We can get this done with enough time and persistance. The firings will continue until we get our way!
    5 Jun 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    Term limits ?
    Dream on Robert, ain't none of em gonna vote for that.
    5 Jun 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8499) | Send Message
     
    might need a constitutional convention at some point to straighten things out.
    5 Jun 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5074) | Send Message
     
    Might? An amendment to the constitution would be the only permanent way to install term limits. Without that, the SOBs will just change it all back at a later date. Laws get repealed when they get in politicians' way.
    5 Jun 2012, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    One was ratified limiting presidential terms after FDR. I'm confident that this will go to the states once it passes the Senate.
    6 Jun 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >robert.b.ferguson ... I've never understood the "Term Limits" argument. The people that have pushed it in the past don't believe in it. In example I give you my esteemed governor, Rick Perry. He didn't use the argument this past election cycle but has in each of preceding 3. Leads me to believe either I don't understand the meaning or is it just to whom it to be applied. Besides, if you get a new crop of novice law makers every few years they are going to be even more reliant on the lobbyists/staff for guidance. I give you as example the recent crop of "Tea Party" Repubs that folded right nicely into establishment routines with retread establishment staffs.
    6 Jun 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    DRich: Greetings. Lobbyists will have less influence especially on those who are termed out. They will have to continuously buy the same seats as turnover will be much higher. Limiting the time spent in government will also eliminate those long standing political alliances and factions that were feared almost above all else by the framers and founders. Look at the case of Senator Byrd who was there until all he could do was drool on himself and he had to be carried out of the Capitol in the end. Our system was designed to be made up of citizens who would be there for a limited time and then return to their lives. Now it has become a very corrupt billionare Boys club made up of people who are there for their own agrandisement and profit. It's no wonder we are in dire straights. Virtue is no longer a word in our political lexicon. As for the argument that they will be coopted by the establishment it's invalid as the establishment politicians would be termed out and the "Establishment." would cease to exist in any meaningful way as it relies on those long standing political alliances.
    6 Jun 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >robert.b.ferguson ... I have to disagree. The Establishment of Washington doesn't hold office. They write the laws and set the regulations and pass them off to the "peoples'" paid employee, who if they play nice have a well paid job waiting when their term is up.
    6 Jun 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8499) | Send Message
     
    DRich what you say is presently the ugly truth. Term limits is one of the tools that will change that. It however can not be done solely with that single tool.

     

    One does not change the engine in the car with only a hammer. This is simply the hammer to change the "establishments" control over the govt that should serve the people. It has been long in getting to this and will be long in correcting it.

     

    One final note. Not "All" the tea party candidates were co-opted and more will be coming while the co-opted ones will find no more support from the tea party. The solution has started but will take time. Wash, rinse, repeat. Eventually things come clean.

     

    Check out GOOOH.com when you get a chance.
    6 Jun 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    "We are over four years into this, and right back where we started, only far worse for the wear. Stop the Keynesian attempts. They've never worked. Which is likely why Keynes himself came to understand this in the week or two prior to his death in 1946, explaining to Henry Clay of the Bank of England: "I find myself more and more relying for a solution of our problems on the invisible hand which I tried to eject from economic thinking 20 years ago."

     

    From "Commentary: Here's The Thing About Deflation" by Five Thousand Over Libor.

     

    A succinct read that I think explains why Mises is right that when a credit bubble bursts it's collapse can't be stopped and why the Fed et al can't stop it and why they shouldn't even try.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Also explains why lower-income folks get so badly hurt, in a single line, "Worse yet, being a net debtor in a deflationary environment is paralyzing, as the principal owed is not adjusted for the deflationary developments". Deflationary environment means wages are not rising (much if at all) and may be actually contracting while the debt balance is not adjusted downward and the interest continues to accrue at the formerly higher rates.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jun 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    I know all too well about deflation ... I survived it in the 1980's in agriculture....Most have not lived thru it and literally do not have a clue how bad it is. Paralyzing ... is a good word. Nothing works.

     

    My point in the above original was that this is the second article in 3 days about tax increases coming from the party that has condemned them. A total about face, or 180 degree turn from what you have heard for 4 years. Trust me, they are coming soon.
    2 Jun 2012, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    Long-term, I guess it's good *if* they really reduce the deficit rather than just cutting the old-fashioned way - "Well, we were going to increase spending 15%, but now were only to increase it 10%".

     

    Short-term, it'll hammer the folks most affected.

     

    If ECRI's call comes to fruition, they'll back off raising the taxes again as the common wisdom is it increases the depth of recession or slows the climb out of it.

     

    If they actually shrunk government where it's most productive to do so, we wouldn't need the increases.

     

    I realize he's "old school", but IIRC it was B. Franklin that said he would view any government that taxed it citizens as much as 10% to be an oppressive government.

     

    Ah, the "good ol' days".

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jun 2012, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... While you want the Keynesian attempts to stop, I've been wondering how long it will be before anyone tries them at all. Just because debt is being used to bailout the system I wouldn't say it has been applied in Keynesian manner.
    2 Jun 2012, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I agree, DR. Keynes would have laughed at the idea that his concepts (whether he rejected them later in life or not) were fulfilled by pouring trillions of dollars into zombie banks or loaning the money to foreign powers (much of it via a dollar carry trade thru the same 2big2fail banks).

     

    Of course, Keynes also called for the money to come from reserves built up over the long term by small yearly supluses accumulated for the purpose of using the money during bad times to "fill in" the lowest dips in the economy. Printing the money from thin air and beggaring the elderly with zirp were somehow omitted from my copy of his book...

     

    Whether one agrees with his ideology or not, its unfair to hang his name on what is transpiring now. I confess that I have seen his name become synonymous with this insanity, and that's not fair to him, but its just one more example of the destruction of the English language which has transpired in the ideological struggle. Perfectly functional terms like "conservative", "liberal", or even "progressive" have been shanghaied into perjorative insults, and so has "keynesian".
    2 Jun 2012, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    "Keynesian"

     

    ?? Where did I mention that?

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jun 2012, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5074) | Send Message
     
    It was in the quote posted in your comment five comments above your last. It was not you per se, it was the person you quoted.
    2 Jun 2012, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    Exactly: DRich attributing to *me* via "While you want the Keynesian attempts to stop" is totally erroneous.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jun 2012, 04:52 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Good thought to chew on as we enter next week -- pointed out by SA:

     

    SA 6/3/12
    8:00 AM Beware a barrage of sell orders Monday as the S&P 500 broke beneath its 200-day moving average late Friday. While not always portending a further sell-off, the last time the S&P broke through what many consider this key technical barrier - August 2 - the index lost 12% over the next 5 trading sessions. Comment!
    3 Jun 2012, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Once again, it all depends on what the quantmonkies running the HFT concession want to happen. They are in control. Buying pressure as a result of capital flight from Europe is a possibility. European leaders abruptly doing obvious things to calm the sovereign debt crisis (however briefly) can pop up at any moment. The retail investment component in these markets is minor - lower than its normal 30-40% (leaving 60-70% for the quantmonkies of course). Are there sufficient retail sheep within the HFT paddock to shear? Only the quantmonkies know...

     

    Speaking tactically (and assuming that the expected thing happening at the expected time is just what the quants want), we can count on history working right up until they toss in a reversal of field, and cash in their gains with a surprise. Trying to predict what they will do, and when, is very different from looking what happened at a different time. I would want to know how much of that earlier market was comprised of real (vs fake HFT) "liquidity", and particularly how much was retail trading.
    3 Jun 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    Good additional thoughts to think about TB. And recent Gallup poll in part suggests how very small the retail trade is since an estimated 46% of Americans don't own stocks: http://bit.ly/LVqRUb
    3 Jun 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    "The Best Way to Rob a Bank Is to Own One" author William Black interview podcast. Four parts, each about 27 minutes. Well worth listening to if you want to have a decent understanding of what really happened and what is still happening.

     

    In the very first 4 minutes of the interview itself, he details that the financial crises was *predicted* by federal agencies, including the FBI in congressional testimony.

     

    For any who believe in our institutions, I'm sorry to disappoint. Regulation, and any system, really only works when folks of integrity are in charge.

     

    Skip the first 3:15 if you don't want to hear an old song by Joan Baez.

     

    "http://bit.ly/JL094m"

     

    Here's some Google results if you want to hear and see more stuff by him about this stuff.

     

    http://tinyurl.com/75j...

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jun 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    New Social Security rules coming (of course then Medicare too):

     

    IF you live to 80 we will give it to you:
    http://bloom.bg/KWyYkY
    3 Jun 2012, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    I can't believe that any country would give up any sovereignty to stay in the EZ...but there is pressure from everywhere forming.
    http://bloom.bg/KJ2sEM
    3 Jun 2012, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    WSJ reports that Germany open to EZ bonds to support banks....
    IF more countries give up power & control to the EZ.

     

    http://on.mktw.net/KvHDOj
    4 Jun 2012, 04:07 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    This article has a little more detail on giving up sovereignty
    http://yhoo.it/LfGlB9
    4 Jun 2012, 05:58 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Sovereignty was eroded the moment any of these countries joined the EU. Even moreso with joining the EZ...

     

    By definition, they theoretically retain sovereignty, BUT agree to be bound by hundreds of agreements contained in the EU Constitution (one of which is the requirement for ultimate membership in the EZ, with the exception of a few who, like the UK, dodged the bullet).

     

    In general terms, groups like the EU and the EZ which are created to bind together disparate nations, and purposely structured to lack any sort of methodology for divorce should that become necessary in the future, are really nothing less than a suicide pact.

     

    That national death can occur as a result should shock no one.
    4 Jun 2012, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    81 handle on oil at this time.
    4 Jun 2012, 03:00 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    $79 drawing nigh...
    4 Jun 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    Gartman says 100% chance of QE-3...he also says Gold will not be a safe haven this time.
    http://bit.ly/MbbrxX

     

    Summers says "Gov'ts should borrow more not less (refinance debt at low rates) then invest in projects that get better than a zero% return.
    http://bit.ly/K88ko6
    4 Jun 2012, 04:33 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    Get ready for earnings drop ... First revenue decline, then earnings:
    http://yhoo.it/JG9O7F
    4 Jun 2012, 06:01 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    I have been favoring streamers over PM miners during the past several months (e.g. Silver Wheaton and Sandstorm) and their current cash hoard may facilitate some good long-term contract locks. "Royalty companies like Franco-Nevada Corp, Silver Wheaton Corp, Royal Gold Inc, Sandstorm Gold Ltd and Anglo Pacific Group now find themselves in the perfect spot to strike new deals and secure their own future growth."
    http://bit.ly/M4rDxk
    4 Jun 2012, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I totally agree. Its how I see the strategic situation developing, and the shorter term tactical picture has already confirmed it.

     

    I believe that SLW is ripe, as is Sandstorm (my buy target for Sandstorm was $1.60 before the 5:1 rs, and is now $8). Franco-Nevada would be my third choice in that group...
    4 Jun 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    I like this play very much Mercy. Thank you!
    4 Jun 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    I see that SNDXD is still a gray market security (no market makers). See http://tinyurl.com/729...
    4 Jun 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Sandstorm is expected to uplist soon (that was a motivation for the rs). Canadian investors might also consider their warrants, particularly SDXXD.
    4 Jun 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    pop on that up-listing?
    4 Jun 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Probably. The idea is to entice institutional investment, which would be a normal expectation for a "financial" player like Sandstorm. Currently they have few large investors.
    5 Jun 2012, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Correction, the warrants are SDXXF.
    6 Jun 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Chesapeake (CHK) to add 4 New Independent Directors. Four Existing Directors to Resign, a fifth to Retire; Selection of New Independent Non-Executive Chairman Nearing Completion.

     

    Might be worth a shot now, as it appears a broom is being applied to its management. It's selling below book - but be cautious, my guess is we still don't know the extent of what's been going on under McClendon and his band of merry men.
    4 Jun 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, I just do not trust the information currently available. More nasty surprises could pop out...
    4 Jun 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    MSFT / NOK vs. Google re: patent war. We should watch MSFT/NOK as there may be easy $$$ here.
    Looks like Google is worried. Disclaimer, I am long MSFT and looking for entry point w/ NOK

     

    http://bit.ly/JGKzlA
    4 Jun 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Even if they win, I wonder how much this will help Nokia's bottom line... I would be cautious investing in Nokia, they are facing some strong headwinds in their core business.
    4 Jun 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    TB, for me it would be a pure MSFT Windows 8 play. I think it could be successful and NOK would be a secondary beneficiary. With that said, I do not think that NOK ever returns to it's glory days.

     

    I see APPL, Android, Samsung, MSFT being the plays in tablets and phones. MSFT being the new entrant, but a serious competitor.

     

    Check this options play out and tell me what you think?
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    4 Jun 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    TB...Here is what the battle with MSFT vs. APPL comes down to...it's the living room. Googles CEO seen this while on the APPL board of directors. That's why he went head to head to APPL, he knew Jobs had it figured out.
    MSFT already has the lead to the living room....it is X-Box vs. the APPL TV that we hear is coming out.
    There is room for both, and Googles fear is to be left out. The phone was just the first step...really the iPod and iTunes was.
    http://bit.ly/LsTwQU
    4 Jun 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    Republicans continue the tax increase plans...this one dealing with corporate taxes....they are going to do it one way or the other.
    http://bloom.bg/M54izG
    4 Jun 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8499) | Send Message
     
    LT, Paul Ryans budget calls for 28 more years of deficit spending. I expect a tax increase from them no matter what cause we can not last 28 more years on deficits. No one will loan us money or to be frank no one probably has the money for 28 more years. Tax increases will have to come cuz neither party will stop the spending.

     

    Paul Ryans (republicans savior) plan is in the link below.

     

    http://bit.ly/LiI7p0
    4 Jun 2012, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5074) | Send Message
     
    Here is a new webpage that appears to be very useful. It has up-to-the minute quotes for commodities, currencies, central bank rates, stock indices around the world, an economic calendar, and more all on one page and easy to maneuver/find what you want quickly. I thought that some of you might find it useful.

     

    http://bit.ly/MbOTgt

     

    Mark
    4 Jun 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    Wow Mark! What a find!

     

    Thanks!

     

    HardToLove
    4 Jun 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8499) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Mark, glad I had the time to stop in and get that jewel. Timing is everything.
    4 Jun 2012, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    MUST READ: Check this out...Chinese index today matched the June 4th 1989 date of the Tiananmen square crack-down 64.98 on its 23rd anniversary, and..."In another twist, the Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC opened at 2346.98 points on the 23rd anniversary of the killings. The numbers 46.98 could be read as June 4, 1989, backwards."

     

    http://reut.rs/NdbMSJ

     

    crazy
    4 Jun 2012, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    I messed up the number should be 64.89 -- 6/4/1989.
    4 Jun 2012, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8499) | Send Message
     
    Central banks indicating they will NOT do more quantitative easing. It could be just attempts to "talk" the market since "walk" is not working out so well.

     

    http://bit.ly/L7YtOG

     

    Of course this is happening as Spain hangs head and asks ECB for bail out money for the banks there as financail markets close to Spanish banks.

     

    http://bit.ly/L7YtOH
    5 Jun 2012, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8499) | Send Message
     
    We may have seen the bottom in gas prices.

     

    http://bit.ly/M2aoO2
    5 Jun 2012, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8499) | Send Message
     
    More reasons I think gold has hit a bottom for the year or is damn close. Notice the part about Chinas imports from Hong Kong.

     

    "Confirmation of continuing huge demand in China came yesterday with data showing that Hong Kong shipped 101,768 kilograms of gold to mainland China in April, up 62% on the month - marking the second-highest monthly exports ever."

     

    http://bit.ly/JIMpT4
    5 Jun 2012, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    I have been looking and looking at buying gold. I am concerned that using charting to determine a bottom for gold will not work well. The reason it might not work well is because I suspect the primary force driving gold down at this time is related to the increasing strength of the US Dollar relative to the Euro. There is a long term inverse association between the US dollar and the price of gold. If the dollar keeps going up as the Euro sinks, what happens to gold? Or put another way, is there any reason for the US dollar to roll over at this time?

     

    I know the US dollar / gold inverse association can break down and even change directions: http://tinyurl.com/2ycy4a. This seems to occur when fears that the world's monetary system (fiat currency) is coming apart at the seams and overwhelms the normal inverse association. I also know from my QE articles that gold prices strongly increase during QE. Fiat currencies are weakened by QE. So the occurrence of US QE signals a weakening of the US dollar. I will be buying gold if any form of US QE is announced.

     

    But the big question to me concerns EU QE? What would constitute EU QE? How do we identify it? And if EU QE occurs, what is going to happen to gold? I would think EU QE would make the US dollar stronger and that should drive down the price of Gold. Than of course we have the stinking Comex playing its little margin games.

     

    If someone is going to make a gold play, should it be gold, streamers, or miners? What's the best play, and what kind of events should trigger the play? Right now, I am favoring the streaming play because they have contracts that give them bargain basement prices on gold, and even if the price of gold goes down, its not going to go that far down. So while their profitability will decrease, they will still be making a profit. I have the feeling that streaming play seems to be a bit safer than Comex gold.

     

    What do you guys think? What kind of events / conditions would scream buy gold to you? And if that happens, what's the best play: Gold, Streamers, Miners?
    5 Jun 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2295) | Send Message
     
    FPA,

     

    FWIW here are my best thoughts:

     

    1) Don't know if you already have some positions in gold -- but my first foray was when it was around $1100/oz. I thought am I crazy at this price? LOL My strategy since, has been to keep scaling in when I think its had a good leg down and keep averaging -- since I look at gold and silver like my 5 other currency diversifications i.e. it goes up and down but helps balance my overweight position in the USD which may get weaker long-term unless we deal with our deep US deficits.

     

    2) What I buy is dependent on what looks battered and what has high volume liquidity (although a small spec miner now and then does the imagination good!)

     

    3) I use charts as one of dozens of inputs -- as I know you do.

     

    4) I always bear in mind the heavy duty central bank and bankster manipulations of precious metals -- and never go all in on anything. They are often much "smarter" than I am. As a result I often have a trading bloc of my favorites and NEVER let big gains stay on the table too long.

     

    5) At this moment in time, as I mentioned above yesterday -- I think the streamers offer the best value for me. But I keep an eye on miners who have a low cost of production -- especially those with a small dividend who can pay me to wait (e.g. GG, NCM:AU, etc.)

     

    Hope that helps in some way.

     

    mj
    5 Jun 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    One thing which I use to help make decisions in the PM space is horizon. When there is market momentum going up and times are good for the major miners, I tend to pull profits out and buy some physical metal, as well as diversify into longer horizon plays (hence seeking to extend my gains into the future by investing in pre-production junior projects). I also accumulate cash in anticipation of buying opportunities (depending on the macro sitrep, of course).

     

    When in times of doubt (which, LOL, applies now and for the past several years, seeems to me) I tend to hedge, and streamers make a lot of sense when we see accelerating production costs and dropping market prices.

     

    Finally, I stay away from ETFs since I view them as the primary targets for market manipulators and corrpt exchange operators. Unlike streamers (who of course can also be attacked by the same nefarious groups), ETFs have no future contracts for cheap PM, and can only degrade from the effects of time erosion.

     

    I am not quite ready to go playing in the junior mining pool right now, but the streamers are looking attractive...
    5 Jun 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    DG: An excellent discovery! This is the beginning of the correction that ultimately leads to correction of supply/demand imbalances and "correct price" discovery.

     

    Our short-sighted government and analysts, assuming that the imbalance continues forever, will keep pumping NG as "the solution" to our energy needs and be flabbergasted when price rises and it turns out it wasn't "the solution" but just "part of the solution" as prices will gravitate towards energy-content based pricing (modified by considerations of infra-structure, transportability, world demand, ... as appropriate) over time.

     

    But when that happens, we should see some stability that allows the E & P folks proceed at a more reasonable pace with an assured long-term viable business model.

     

    IMO, that is when investment in the sector becomes reasonable.

     

    Thanks for the link!

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    5 Jun 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I agree, HTL. Part of the problem is that the portability issue has not been addressed. There is a planetary transport system capable of taking ANY barrel of oil and moving it all over the world. Similar portability for NG might one day occur (http://bit.ly/rmHAbP), but right now that infrastructure is puny with very spotty coverage. To view natural gas as a proxy for oil is to miss this critical shortcoming. Some re-balance of this comparison occurs due to the wacky treatment of refinery capacity, particularly in the US, but still...

     

    As we have seen, natural gas pricing is geographically confined. There is no reason to assume that these geographic limits will precisely overlay matching demand structure, either. Freya and others on this blog have for long viewed the LNG investments with an eye for the future, and that story is still young and vibrant, imo. As energy content price imbalance between NG and oil occurs on a regional basis, the push to capitalize on this situation will move LNG along at a rapid clip. Political and geopolitical factors (like the ascendence of the Greens in Europe, and the fukushima reactor debacle in Japan) will tend to add further force to the price pressure.
    5 Jun 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8499) | Send Message
     
    Sorry if I posted this before or if someone else did. The potential for bonds to be priced at 1% for some time worries me. I shorted bonds just recently. That would suck but would be just my luck.

     

    http://bit.ly/K25jE6

     

    Forgot to add a theme song for this article.

     

    http://bit.ly/NeDyy8
    5 Jun 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    DG: I suspect you were early on shorting the bonds, as I've been in the past.

     

    I suspect the EZ problems have at least one more "Fear Factor" episode to go before "Flight to Safety" and and "Return *of Money, Not Return *on* Money" abates.

     

    MHO and really ignorant about all this,
    HardToLove
    5 Jun 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • QuickChat
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The new QC is here:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    5 Jun 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5382) | Send Message
     
    HTL...you might be interested in this:

     

    6:18 PM Tesla Motors delivers its Model S ahead of schedule. Originally, the company had predicted the first delivery for June 22nd. Comment! [Consumer]
    5 Jun 2012, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18368) | Send Message
     
    Yeth thir! I was watching today to see whether to go long a call or a put and it was indecisive. But I was watching for it to break and hold $28+ to go long a call and break or go below $27 (the target it hit yesterday) to go long a put.

     

    If the news is out and causes the dedicated folks to jump on it, I should be able to get a nice entry for a $27/$28 call tomorrow that should run a few days.

     

    Thanks for the heads up - it's not appeared on my normal news feeds yet.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Jun 2012, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/JWkwvv
    6 Jun 2012, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Invitation only for some special customers...

     

    Dog and pony show.
    6 Jun 2012, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2147) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    I don't know if you heard yet, but Ray Bradbury has died.
    http://wapo.st/JWIRBm
    6 Jun 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I was just reading through my emails...

     

    I got to talk with him only once, at the first WorldCon I attended in Atlanta. He was amazingly patient with the young and foolish.

     

    A great man.
    6 Jun 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2147) | Send Message
     
    I never met him, but much of my misspent youth was spent reading his thought provoking and imaginative stories. I believe he was the last of that era of sci-fi writers that included Arthur C. Clarke, Isaac Asimov and others.
    6 Jun 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.