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QuickChat#233, May 29, 2012 220 comments
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"Floridian" by stan bruns
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This post has 220 comments:
The finished piece took me a year to complete, primarily because I decided to finish it completely "live" as an ongoing demonstration at last year's art festivals, and because the stone border is composed of a multitude of individual drops of ink. It was entirely composed "in the ink", meaning there was no pencil sketch or studies done prior to the final drawing. Those dots (called "stipple" in the pen and ink trade, simular to "pointilism" in painting) took a very long time and were tedious even for me.
The piece was something of a miracle, in that the original survived various storms, young children, clumsy adults, and of course myself for a year's constant work on a small, shaky table under an outdoor canopy.
LOL, I often have fun with the more pretentious art show juries when they insist that "...all work displayed must be recent, less than a year old." The inevitable clarifying phone call is fun, when I tell them that I will be glad to present their required 4 samples of my work, but that I would really appreciate their bending their definition of "recent" since many of my better pieces take over a year's work to complete...
In a world of instant gratification, its perhaps inevitable to confront such attitudes and assumptions even among professional art academics.
TB - The days when real art took a year or more to complete are long gone. We have become a culture of instantaneous gratification. We want to use all of the available technological "short cuts" to get finished as fast as possible. Unfortunately, true artisans are rarely appreciated anymore.
Nice work!
It's a terrific piece of work, so detailed, so alive.
And clearly evident how it took a year plus to create.
BTW Trip, the framing I had Michael's do came out fantastic; perfectly matches my study decor, and really captures the Mistrel marvelously; it really pops...it's like you can hear him cooing a delightful melody all the way to the other side of my house!
Hasn't been a day since the Minstrel got hung, that I haven't stood close and appreciated all the work and talent.
mj
I have another one of Trip's pieces coming, the "Titmouse Chaple," which Trip knows he can take as long as he needs to finish it.
I have never been corrected so tactfully! Thank you.
Thank god I have no ego wrapped up in my obviously poor language skillz!
There is a lot to catch up on here though...this is a busy group ! LOL
6:15 PM Ed Yardeni looks at reshoring U.S. jobs due to cheaper energy costs, as truck stops add tanks of LNG because the fuel is so much cheaper than diesel: "Trucks transport roughly three-quarters of American freight, so lower transportation costs could provide a big boost to the economy," adding between a half and a full percentage point to annual GDP growth over the next 10-15 years. [Energy, U.S. Economy] Comment!
http://bit.ly/KR7bmR
SPAIN'S BANKS MAY SINK THE EURO:
http://bit.ly/KcgEYs
CHK 8:17 AM Chesapeake Energy (CHK) will meet with many of its major lenders later this week, Reuters reports, as the company scrambles to raise cash to close a $9B-$10B funding shortfall. It's unclear whether the meeting is special or regularly scheduled, but the company is expected to talk about its plans and liquidity needs. CHK -1.2% premarket. [Energy] 1 Comment
Plus: Brazil central bank set to cut interest rates for 7th consecutive
The recent weakness of the A$ is another example. The C$ is also suspect, given the situation, though not as vulnerable as the A$ imo.
4:50 AM Europe should be "realistic," devalue its currency and accept painful reforms so it can emerge from this crisis stronger, says Bank of Thailand Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul. Thailand experienced this firsthand, shrinking 10.5% in '98 after setting off the Asian financial crisis, before undertaking radical changes and pulling back to average growth of 4% from 2000-2009. [Global & FX] 3 Comments
Plus: Greece's $130 b in loan help is just paying interest.
Of course, if the US was not sitting on ZIRP and trillions in QE-stuffed 2Bigs as far as the eye can see...
The Euro would be worth about 70 cents.
10:57 AM The amazing thing to us is why hasn't the euro gone to 90, Mark Mobius tells Bloomberg TV. Patience. New levels are being taken out all over as Europe slides to session lows (taking the S&P with it). The Stoxx 50, -2.1%, is at a new YTD low. The euro sees a $1.23 handle, off about 1000 pips just this month. Good news for consumers: Oil -3.3% to $87.78. Comment! [Global & FX, Commodities]
http://tgr.ph/LTbQow
Look for another whipsaw in the markets.
Supreme Court decision and a potential conflict in the ME. ( the 2 II's)
The conflict looks like a gimmee. The Saudii's have 80 million brls of floating storage having filled same with excess capacity sitting outside the Strait of H. Our Stockpiles are at 22 year hi's and SPR talk abounds. Plus, someone don't remember who, Kuwait I think, has a pipeline ready to open in June which also bypasses the Strait.
Meanwhile, What if the SC sides with Obama?
What happens to International earnings when the Euro's weakness hits the Qrtrly reports, I expect expectations to be lowered starting in June.
Suggest looking at QTWW, I own and am down but not out.
TC
The real question is as you left it "What happens if they take a middle road only striking down the mandate but leaving other parts of it?"
The supreme court is probably going to take a hit either way or any way that they rule. The entire country is too divided on issues that have become unresolvable / uncompromisable and as a result as you said the other side will die retaliating.
Personally, I don't care which way they go, I just want them to either keep it all or repeal it all and do it unanimously. Any other way and the Supreme Court will lose much credibility if it goes down party lines on the vote. I am really afraid they try to strike down the mandate and leave the rest.
He'll probably scrounge around for some way to skirt the decision.
I assume he counts on the ignorance engendered in the general population by the revisionist and incomplete history provided by our federally controlled (in fact if not in theory, due to purse strings and other "tools" of the feds) "education system".
HardToLove
Removing the primary funding method would, of course, leave it as a crippled piece of unenforceable legislation for those elements lying downstream of and dependent upon that funding.
I am doubtful as to the impact it would have upon the investment prospects for the hospital chains, insurance companies, HMO's, etc. There has been no certainty that the income from large numbers of current uninsureds would, indeed, flow to these companies (which doubt is not least of all created by the SCOTUS challenge), and lacking certainty I doubt how much of this hopium gravy train is currently baked into those pies. For that matter, neither is the downside of the bill, ie, the requirement to provide instant coverage on demand, even for pre-existing conditions, which would have been a severe money drain for the same insurers.
As an investment impact, if the SCOTUS DOES uphold the bill's Constitutionality, THEN we could expect to see the true impact on share prices, as doubts are removed and true calculations get built into the various players.
10:54 AM Sensible regulatory scrutiny or trade protectionism? The EU is reportedly gathering evidence proving Chinese IT/telecom equipment giants Huawei and ZTE (ZTCOY.PK) have benefited from government subsidies, and plans to take action (ed: Chinese solar vendors can probably sympathize). The companies (Huawei especially) have been taking share from Euro telecom equipment vendors such as ALU, ERIC, and NOK thanks to aggressive pricing and a win-at-all-costs attitude. Comment! [Tech]
But it took real economic damage and a fiat currency crisis to force the leaders to notice the Emperor's naked body.
Even with the sell off, I do not see one stock I want to own for a while or at least buy quite a bit cheaper. I see nothing close to a bargain yet.
Thanks for sharing that...I have been watching too.
Though I still shun Chinese companies.
Gold mining stocks also higher today. Could be something to it.
http://bit.ly/KsMiiq
May 30 (IFR) - In a day when investment sentiment was completely risk-off, Kraft Foods demonstrated the continued liquidity of the US investment grade market by raising $6 billion through a four-tranche senior unsecured deal.
Source is Reuters, I can't post a link.
Lets say Greece left the euro, printed a ton of drachma's, and the dropped 50% the first day...and their debt was paid off,
vs.
Staying in the EZ, starving under German rule & austerity and the $Euro dropping from $140 down to $70-90 (parity to the USD$) ?
to me, the currency is going to drop anyway. So why endure the pain and they will never be able to even pay the interest the way it is now?
Same for Italy & Spain.
The drachma(conian) measures for an austerity scenario that must be applied when they are this far gone can not, AFAIU, save them anyway now. All it does is transfer more wealth from the population to others, who may not be so deserving, and delay the real recovery for the population.
HardToLove
Derivatives are, have been & will continue to be the problem for solvency. Until this dark pool is addressed ... we're doomed to support the status quo.
If it were up to me, I would do the deal, zero debt, bankrupt the banks one day and re-open them the next with no derivatives. Let the chips fall where they may on who else takes a fall. If other derivative players go broke, then so be it. They should not be gambling on them anyway. They are in no way or form a "hedge" and have not been for years.
A very wise person in my town once told me when I started buying bonds:
"Buy the best quality, tax free usually, and put them in a lockbox until they mature. Do not trade and speculate on or with them". He was ever so correct.
http://yhoo.it/L0BmWj
10:42 AM Bearish positioning towards the euro remains at extreme levels, according to the CitiFX Positioning Indicator. Adding to the usual reasons for being short euros is talk the SNB - a buyer of the euro vs. the franc - is covering itself by selling euros vs. the dollar (probably just talk as this doesn't make a whole lot of sense). The euro is flat at $1.2372. Comment! [Global & FX]
It has already done its funding.
1) Phil Davis underscores how the USD rise lowers valuations for US equities and notes that the 5.4% USD rise in May is equivalent to a 64%+ return on an annualized basis -- so staying heavy USD cash has paid off in added $$buying power on a relative basis http://bit.ly/L05krM
2) And Matthew Bradbards perspective on commodities is one I follow and respect, and this is his latest take on where gold is going: http://bit.ly/JUb4Fz
12:09 PM Capital outflow from Spain hit €66.2B in March, the largest amount since records began being kept in 1990 and against a €5.4B inflow a year ago. This is March data, and the early word for April shows a continuation of the trend. The country's deposit base is about €1.6T. [Global & FX, Financials] Comment!
Brazil :
12:59 PM More on the fund manager survey: Money flowing out of Brazil is moving elsewhere in Latin America as fund managers are overweight Chile, Mexico, and Colombia. Also popular are Taiwan and India. Countries underweight: China, Thailand, Russia South Korea, and Turkey. [Global & FX] Comment!
Citi analyst response:
11:59 AM "Risk appetite is just completely gone out," says Citi's Gregg Anderson as the 10-year Treasury yield falls to a record 1.53%. Extreme levels are seemingly everywhere. Those who are long Treasurys, long Bunds, long Gilts, or short euros need to ask themselves how long they expect the central banks to sit on their hands. 3 Comments
WHICH central banks?
Most of the 2nd tier CB's have been fighting the currency wars like made for years now, so presumably it not them they are questioning...
The ECB and other major European banks (particularly Germany, but also France and the UK) are the primary targets, of course, plus the Fed (which is always mixed up in everything), particularly the Fed due to the gathering storm pushing resources into dollars from around the globe.
The dramatic drop in the 10year bonds is the surest sign of just how many folks see a storm a'comin'.
You got that right . I think it will be ALL central banks...there was a 4 way con. call yesterday with Germany, France, Spain leaders with Obama....he was discussing the lack of dealing with the situation.
The EZ is dragging the world down...I expect that is what Merkel wants. To the point that the world has to share in their pain and bail them out instead of the EZ dealing with it.
After all Germany has zero% rates now, nice growth, no employment problem...tell me why they want change? or should their people bail out europe ?
Of course they want someone else to give the EU money rather than print their own!
that is what has everything on hold....they really have a catch 22 and most of the anti-bailout crowd (public) in Germany really does not know the consequences. They would probably have unemployment rise like ours did in '08.
I believe they are actually surprised to see Europe's effete elite scampering to their door looking for another bailout...
"Big Democracy" is broken.
McConnell open to "revenue increases"
http://bit.ly/N2XvrD
Any opinions?
"... binding agreement with CEC Carbonate Energy PLC, ("CEC") our farm in partner, to combine the assets of oil sands leases held by both companies ..."
"... structured on a put and call basis so that when these 2 events are completed, the transaction closes. The first leases will be transferred effective immediately into escrow in exchange for the put and call transaction and the fixing of the North Star share price effective today".
Lots of interesting details and considerations laid out.
http://mwne.ws/Nnq690
HardToLove
I would agree that the remaining assets of Tamm, now more firmly tied to CEC and NorthStar, will become more valuable, but will that alone be enough to offset losing 45% of its oil sand assets? I doubt it, and this deal requires authorization of the shareholders to go forward...
CEC is putting over $162million into the pot, which seems like a lot of money, but 1.3billion barrels of oil is a lot of oil, too...
If there is no remuneration for TAMO shareholders, this would be a no-go. Assuming the TAMO oil is roughly equivalent to the $162million from the other side, this would value the TAMO contribution at about half the $1.76/share set for NorthStar. In that case, I should think that as many as half (though more likely something like 30% due to the consideration that CEC also brings other traditional oil producing assets to the deal) of the new shares should flow to TAMO shareholders.
Since we do not know how many NorthStar shares are being created, or precisely the value of the other properties contributed by CEC, its impossible to render anything more than a crude estimate...
But I somehow believe they will attempt to sell the deal to the TAMO shareholders with no remuneration other than the speculation that the 55% of the remaining assets will increase in value in some way because of the new association with NorthStar.
I find this prospect disturbing.
We will see...
Appreciate you taking the time.
HardToLove
I may look like a dummy if those shares pop to $.60 next week, but I have doubts about this deal. It could implode very easily, imo.
Oil sands from a more philosophical perspective.
And it quickly augered into bankruptcy from there.
I would frankly be happier with a straight joint venture or sale of assets rather than this merger which takes care of management first.
I still doubt that the deal will be authorized by the shareholders, unless a sizeable chunk of the cash flows to the shareholders.
"U.S. adds 69,000 jobs in May; jobless rate 8.2%"
http://on.mktw.net/Jyi5uj
"U.S. savings rate inches lower in April"
http://on.mktw.net/JRjEtr
And in a reversal, S&P futures and USD down together while LT treasuries gain.
"Treasurys gain, dollar pares gain after payrolls"
http://on.mktw.net/Jyi5uq
HardToLove
August looks likely...
Mayascribe:
Kind Folks: Talked to my Wells Fargo Senior Advisor earlier this week. A couple weeks before, my broker told me that Sen. Bob Casey, a democrat from PA, called him (I find that fact pretty cool!).
I don't know what all went down during the conversation, but Sen. Casey stated to my broker that he did not foresee the Bush tax cuts NOT being extended.
It seems "fiscal cliff" will get lots of media play during the next two quarters. But now we have some info from someone important inside the beltway, a democrat, that believes the Bush Tax cuts WILL be extended for maybe six months to as long as a year.
Also, my broker believes there will be no QE3 later this year, no matter what Europe does.
Plan accordingly.
SA 6/1/12
10:56 AM U.S. job growth is coming entirely from workers getting part-time jobs. The number of Americans working full-time fell by 266K in May, erasing all the gains of the past three months; total employment rose only because 618K more people got part-time jobs. People classified as “part time for economic reasons" - i.e., they can’t find a full-time job - jumped 245K to 8.1M. [U.S. Economy] 1 Comment
As government (say "Obamacare" and then shout "amen" my children) adds layers of razor wire and landmines to the business landscape for full time, permanent jobs, the reaction to these events should not be surprise, but "so, what else is new?"
From some previous posts you had I thought you were on the side of thinking there would not be QE-3? Did I misinterpret, or did something change your mind?
thanks
Interesting chart - it would appear that the dollar index has now recovered to the point immediately before QE2 last year. Looking around, conditions are quite similar, now we will see if the Fed repeats history.
Precious metals are looking very strong today, but I am expecting a counter-attack from the fiat guys and their henchmen running the commodity exchanges, be cautious...
I wonder if metals can stand up if the next line of attack is deflation.
The Fed might make an announcement (or a trial balloon, which is perhaps more likely) later this month or July, with action to follow, again perhaps in August.
Oh, I don't think the fed will make a move just yet. I posted earlier a comment about August, and this only reinforces that opinion. The Idea of "protecting" American interests by providing huge liquidity to the Europeans (so they can avoid printing their own money) is another example of the Fed moving while the Europeans fail to act.
I think both scenarios are likely, though of course by no means certain.
http://bit.ly/NqDYz6
There is a lot more in the EU media that lays this out. Should scare the crap out of the oligarchs no matter which way it goes. The idea of the status quo i.e. middle of the bond vigilante road is coming to an end. Choice is boiling down to right ditch or left.
9:29 AM "Let's start printing euros ourselves," former Italian PM Berlusconi tells party members. "Germany should leave the euro if it doesn't agree with the ECB serving as a lender of last resort." Comment! [Global & FX]
Tough week ahead. Could we see 1100's for the S&P? Yes, and quickly if the current dread just keeps hanging there with no resolution.
Look for the HFT's to strike, hard, while they still have enough lemmings trapped in the slaughter yard.
Buying opps are appearing, and I believe will strengthen over the coming days. Time to polish your projections and pick your targets...
As the military would say: "Its a target rich environment".
Will Apple be available at a 4 PE? Could happen.
Will major oil sell off in the wake of $79 WTI (and we may even see parity with Brent)? I think so.
Will commodities start to come back as money printing sweeps the planet? Yes.
Europeans are still standing around hypnotized by the oncoming French and Greek elections...
They are all acting schizoid.
One side of the body wants to dart to the left to avoid getting crushed...
The other side wants to dart to the right...
So the whole thing ends up immobilized, quivering in the middle of the road.
Its surreal.
9:58 AM Boston Fed President Rosengren suggests a continuation of Operation Twist beyond June would be appropriate given his opinion the central bank needs to provide more stimulus. "That would have the impact of helping to reduce longer-term interest rates without expanding our balance sheet," he says. The 10-year is at 1.5% - what does he want? Japan? 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
HardToLove
It's kinda like, if YOU have a problem, most of us don't care. When your problem affects me or becomes our problem, we want something done asap. There are 20+ countries affected now and the mkt. is pushing them faster & harder. Cash flows out of countries is a huge risk.
Friday is a good day to send them a message, the DIA down 200 pts. and we will see the mkt. hit overdrive this month without resolution. They now have the weekend to work behind closed doors.
June will be an interesting month.
Obama Ordered The "Code Stux"
http://tinyurl.com/cf6...
I am not surprised that it was done, I am surprised that the NYT published this.
1. Its a fake, planted by political operatives seeking to damage Voldemort's re-election bid.
2. Its real, and was leaked by individuals in the government for the same motives noted in #1 above.
3. Its misdirection, planted by the Mossad to shift blame from the Israelis who probably DID do the deed.
4. Its half true, and we may never know the whole truth.
Regardless, the timing (long distant from events in Iran, but very near a presidential election) is suspect.
Voldemort WANTS to entice the Iranians into a "reaction"?
Destroying a nuclear carrier left sitting in an Arabian both tub would do the trick...
There's a lure if there ever was one.
I'm no more a neocon than you are. If you paid attention, you would know that. I hate the Republicrats just as much as the Demicans. If Bush (unlike Voldemort, I have never found that I am haunted by hordes of trolls if I use his real name, which appropriately is a common landscaping supply, similar to "manure") were still in office I would list the same list, with the same likely motives (and probably with the same stupid tactical and strategic errors, too). I battled hard against invading Iraq back when, unlike the Demicans who were climbing all over one another to get out in front of cameras to show support (like a terrarium full of young turtles).
Again sorry. Showing my site bias. I'll try to not skim read so fast.
1. He is not liked by cons. because he spent too much money on education, poor, and regulations paving the way for people who couldn't afford houses to have houses etc.
2. He is not liked by liberals and some cons. because he went to Iraq to remove a dictator with access to lots of oil and to Afghanistan to bring a people living in the middle-ages, I mean middle-east, running water, education and electricity. When you strip it away his motivation in both places was sparked by the notion that if you encouraged the industrialization and modernization of Afghan. and democracy in Iraq that the fanatics would begin to lose and sensible people would emerge abandoning there tendencies of poisoning a girls school, chopping off heads, and blowing themselves up for virgins.
Of course, all these things benefit the US but removing oil out of the hands of a dictator benefitted the entire world.
I do believe time (perhaps lots of it) will show that he took the first courageous steps in bringing peace and more prosperity to the middle-east.
For the record, I did not vote for him once, but now wish I had.
Within the next 15 years Iraq will be the fastest growing nation in the Middle-east and while Afghanistan may not be a burgeoning society of sophistry women will receive an education and not be stoned for it.
Whether people will be willing to give Bush credit for initiating those two developments remains to be seen and while people will still claim it was only done for big oil's selfish gains the increased prosperity for the majority in those countries will be undeniable.
P.S. This is on-topic because it argues at some point in the not-too-distant future Iraq will be an investment opportunity.
Hmmm.
Last time I heard this sort of thing, it involved Y2K and was followed with trillions of liquidity added to the banking system "...just in case".
First official hint at QE, if not to benefit our friends in southern Europe, but then to protect us from their problems.
Clever...
http://on.wsj.com/NpbJky
http://on.wsj.com/KxUqOC
Add in the outflows from the mutual funds. *If* sell side is successful in convincing the multiply-burned retail investor that *now* is the time ...
Of course, they won't mention that we seem likely to be entering a worldwide recession right now and prices can tank even further yet.
Another successful shearing will take place.
Let's hope that the retail investor realizes that the kicking the can game has solved *no* problems and there is still high risk. Then maybe the architects of this mess we're in will learn something for a change.
HardToLove
Wonder if this is the blade of grass that Europe is trying to grab before falling off the cliff monday morning. Should be a rally.
Toss in some followup on the new initiative by Voldemort to palm off one of his more difficult duties as Chief Executive (after all, he's busy campaigning) onto Congress (ie, to protect the US from Euorpean debt problems, hey, maybe Hillary should report to the Speaker of the House under the new Constitution?)...
Monday could be really, really weird.
I am telling you they are aligning the stars for a massive tax revenue increase to go soon as they win the white house...Kinda odd after rejecting them for 4 years while deficits soared.
http://bloom.bg/LbCTwV
Ronald Reagan fell for the "...I'll pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today..." promise of future spending cuts for tax increases now. Also a similar promise about immigration, amnesty, immigration reform, and border security...
Jeb Bush is obviously no scholar of history, either, though I expect that unspoken behind these musings is the assumption that Republicrats will secure a solid majority in the Senate this election... Though as we have seen in the past, placing too much faith in the fortitude of politicians to cut spending in modern Washington (regardless which party rules which levers of power) is naive.
There are others who remember history, but we will see if they have any influence post-election.
My advice to the new President would be to accept the spending cuts first, and discuss tax increases after.
Reagan at a later date did seem to learn something from the lies: Trust but verify.
Dream on Robert, ain't none of em gonna vote for that.
One does not change the engine in the car with only a hammer. This is simply the hammer to change the "establishments" control over the govt that should serve the people. It has been long in getting to this and will be long in correcting it.
One final note. Not "All" the tea party candidates were co-opted and more will be coming while the co-opted ones will find no more support from the tea party. The solution has started but will take time. Wash, rinse, repeat. Eventually things come clean.
Check out GOOOH.com when you get a chance.
From "Commentary: Here's The Thing About Deflation" by Five Thousand Over Libor.
A succinct read that I think explains why Mises is right that when a credit bubble bursts it's collapse can't be stopped and why the Fed et al can't stop it and why they shouldn't even try.
http://seekingalpha.co...
Also explains why lower-income folks get so badly hurt, in a single line, "Worse yet, being a net debtor in a deflationary environment is paralyzing, as the principal owed is not adjusted for the deflationary developments". Deflationary environment means wages are not rising (much if at all) and may be actually contracting while the debt balance is not adjusted downward and the interest continues to accrue at the formerly higher rates.
HardToLove
My point in the above original was that this is the second article in 3 days about tax increases coming from the party that has condemned them. A total about face, or 180 degree turn from what you have heard for 4 years. Trust me, they are coming soon.
Short-term, it'll hammer the folks most affected.
If ECRI's call comes to fruition, they'll back off raising the taxes again as the common wisdom is it increases the depth of recession or slows the climb out of it.
If they actually shrunk government where it's most productive to do so, we wouldn't need the increases.
I realize he's "old school", but IIRC it was B. Franklin that said he would view any government that taxed it citizens as much as 10% to be an oppressive government.
Ah, the "good ol' days".
HardToLove
Of course, Keynes also called for the money to come from reserves built up over the long term by small yearly supluses accumulated for the purpose of using the money during bad times to "fill in" the lowest dips in the economy. Printing the money from thin air and beggaring the elderly with zirp were somehow omitted from my copy of his book...
Whether one agrees with his ideology or not, its unfair to hang his name on what is transpiring now. I confess that I have seen his name become synonymous with this insanity, and that's not fair to him, but its just one more example of the destruction of the English language which has transpired in the ideological struggle. Perfectly functional terms like "conservative", "liberal", or even "progressive" have been shanghaied into perjorative insults, and so has "keynesian".
?? Where did I mention that?
HardToLove
HardToLove
SA 6/3/12
8:00 AM Beware a barrage of sell orders Monday as the S&P 500 broke beneath its 200-day moving average late Friday. While not always portending a further sell-off, the last time the S&P broke through what many consider this key technical barrier - August 2 - the index lost 12% over the next 5 trading sessions. Comment!
Speaking tactically (and assuming that the expected thing happening at the expected time is just what the quants want), we can count on history working right up until they toss in a reversal of field, and cash in their gains with a surprise. Trying to predict what they will do, and when, is very different from looking what happened at a different time. I would want to know how much of that earlier market was comprised of real (vs fake HFT) "liquidity", and particularly how much was retail trading.
In the very first 4 minutes of the interview itself, he details that the financial crises was *predicted* by federal agencies, including the FBI in congressional testimony.
For any who believe in our institutions, I'm sorry to disappoint. Regulation, and any system, really only works when folks of integrity are in charge.
Skip the first 3:15 if you don't want to hear an old song by Joan Baez.
"http://bit.ly/JL094m"
Here's some Google results if you want to hear and see more stuff by him about this stuff.
http://tinyurl.com/75j...
HardToLove
IF you live to 80 we will give it to you:
http://bloom.bg/KWyYkY
http://bloom.bg/KJ2sEM
IF more countries give up power & control to the EZ.
http://on.mktw.net/KvHDOj
http://yhoo.it/LfGlB9
By definition, they theoretically retain sovereignty, BUT agree to be bound by hundreds of agreements contained in the EU Constitution (one of which is the requirement for ultimate membership in the EZ, with the exception of a few who, like the UK, dodged the bullet).
In general terms, groups like the EU and the EZ which are created to bind together disparate nations, and purposely structured to lack any sort of methodology for divorce should that become necessary in the future, are really nothing less than a suicide pact.
That national death can occur as a result should shock no one.
http://bit.ly/MbbrxX
Summers says "Gov'ts should borrow more not less (refinance debt at low rates) then invest in projects that get better than a zero% return.
http://bit.ly/K88ko6
http://yhoo.it/JG9O7F
http://bit.ly/M4rDxk
I believe that SLW is ripe, as is Sandstorm (my buy target for Sandstorm was $1.60 before the 5:1 rs, and is now $8). Franco-Nevada would be my third choice in that group...
Might be worth a shot now, as it appears a broom is being applied to its management. It's selling below book - but be cautious, my guess is we still don't know the extent of what's been going on under McClendon and his band of merry men.
Looks like Google is worried. Disclaimer, I am long MSFT and looking for entry point w/ NOK
http://bit.ly/JGKzlA
I see APPL, Android, Samsung, MSFT being the plays in tablets and phones. MSFT being the new entrant, but a serious competitor.
Check this options play out and tell me what you think?
http://seekingalpha.co...
MSFT already has the lead to the living room....it is X-Box vs. the APPL TV that we hear is coming out.
There is room for both, and Googles fear is to be left out. The phone was just the first step...really the iPod and iTunes was.
http://bit.ly/LsTwQU
http://bloom.bg/M54izG
Paul Ryans (republicans savior) plan is in the link below.
http://bit.ly/LiI7p0
http://bit.ly/MbOTgt
Mark
Thanks!
HardToLove
http://reut.rs/NdbMSJ
crazy
http://bit.ly/L7YtOG
Of course this is happening as Spain hangs head and asks ECB for bail out money for the banks there as financail markets close to Spanish banks.
http://bit.ly/L7YtOH
http://bit.ly/M2aoO2
"Confirmation of continuing huge demand in China came yesterday with data showing that Hong Kong shipped 101,768 kilograms of gold to mainland China in April, up 62% on the month - marking the second-highest monthly exports ever."
http://bit.ly/JIMpT4
I know the US dollar / gold inverse association can break down and even change directions: http://tinyurl.com/2ycy4a. This seems to occur when fears that the world's monetary system (fiat currency) is coming apart at the seams and overwhelms the normal inverse association. I also know from my QE articles that gold prices strongly increase during QE. Fiat currencies are weakened by QE. So the occurrence of US QE signals a weakening of the US dollar. I will be buying gold if any form of US QE is announced.
But the big question to me concerns EU QE? What would constitute EU QE? How do we identify it? And if EU QE occurs, what is going to happen to gold? I would think EU QE would make the US dollar stronger and that should drive down the price of Gold. Than of course we have the stinking Comex playing its little margin games.
If someone is going to make a gold play, should it be gold, streamers, or miners? What's the best play, and what kind of events should trigger the play? Right now, I am favoring the streaming play because they have contracts that give them bargain basement prices on gold, and even if the price of gold goes down, its not going to go that far down. So while their profitability will decrease, they will still be making a profit. I have the feeling that streaming play seems to be a bit safer than Comex gold.
What do you guys think? What kind of events / conditions would scream buy gold to you? And if that happens, what's the best play: Gold, Streamers, Miners?
FWIW here are my best thoughts:
1) Don't know if you already have some positions in gold -- but my first foray was when it was around $1100/oz. I thought am I crazy at this price? LOL My strategy since, has been to keep scaling in when I think its had a good leg down and keep averaging -- since I look at gold and silver like my 5 other currency diversifications i.e. it goes up and down but helps balance my overweight position in the USD which may get weaker long-term unless we deal with our deep US deficits.
2) What I buy is dependent on what looks battered and what has high volume liquidity (although a small spec miner now and then does the imagination good!)
3) I use charts as one of dozens of inputs -- as I know you do.
4) I always bear in mind the heavy duty central bank and bankster manipulations of precious metals -- and never go all in on anything. They are often much "smarter" than I am. As a result I often have a trading bloc of my favorites and NEVER let big gains stay on the table too long.
5) At this moment in time, as I mentioned above yesterday -- I think the streamers offer the best value for me. But I keep an eye on miners who have a low cost of production -- especially those with a small dividend who can pay me to wait (e.g. GG, NCM:AU, etc.)
Hope that helps in some way.
mj
When in times of doubt (which, LOL, applies now and for the past several years, seeems to me) I tend to hedge, and streamers make a lot of sense when we see accelerating production costs and dropping market prices.
Finally, I stay away from ETFs since I view them as the primary targets for market manipulators and corrpt exchange operators. Unlike streamers (who of course can also be attacked by the same nefarious groups), ETFs have no future contracts for cheap PM, and can only degrade from the effects of time erosion.
I am not quite ready to go playing in the junior mining pool right now, but the streamers are looking attractive...
Our short-sighted government and analysts, assuming that the imbalance continues forever, will keep pumping NG as "the solution" to our energy needs and be flabbergasted when price rises and it turns out it wasn't "the solution" but just "part of the solution" as prices will gravitate towards energy-content based pricing (modified by considerations of infra-structure, transportability, world demand, ... as appropriate) over time.
But when that happens, we should see some stability that allows the E & P folks proceed at a more reasonable pace with an assured long-term viable business model.
IMO, that is when investment in the sector becomes reasonable.
Thanks for the link!
MHO,
HardToLove
As we have seen, natural gas pricing is geographically confined. There is no reason to assume that these geographic limits will precisely overlay matching demand structure, either. Freya and others on this blog have for long viewed the LNG investments with an eye for the future, and that story is still young and vibrant, imo. As energy content price imbalance between NG and oil occurs on a regional basis, the push to capitalize on this situation will move LNG along at a rapid clip. Political and geopolitical factors (like the ascendence of the Greens in Europe, and the fukushima reactor debacle in Japan) will tend to add further force to the price pressure.
http://bit.ly/K25jE6
Forgot to add a theme song for this article.
http://bit.ly/NeDyy8
I suspect the EZ problems have at least one more "Fear Factor" episode to go before "Flight to Safety" and and "Return *of Money, Not Return *on* Money" abates.
MHO and really ignorant about all this,
HardToLove
http://seekingalpha.co...
6:18 PM Tesla Motors delivers its Model S ahead of schedule. Originally, the company had predicted the first delivery for June 22nd. Comment! [Consumer]
If the news is out and causes the dedicated folks to jump on it, I should be able to get a nice entry for a $27/$28 call tomorrow that should run a few days.
Thanks for the heads up - it's not appeared on my normal news feeds yet.
HardToLove
Dog and pony show.
I don't know if you heard yet, but Ray Bradbury has died.
http://wapo.st/JWIRBm
I got to talk with him only once, at the first WorldCon I attended in Atlanta. He was amazingly patient with the young and foolish.
A great man.
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