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  • QuickChat #240, August 10, 2012 305 comments
    Aug 10, 2012 11:20 AM

    Some stocks I am currently watching with avid interest: Alkane (OTCPK:ALKEF) which, with partner Newmont Mining, is selling one of their gold properties, I highlighted this stock for review on the REE Concentrator several weeks ago...

    Since buying Marathon (NYSE:MRO) recently below $23, I have been operating with the idea that tensions in the middle east (currently focused on Iran and Syria) could boost oil prices despite recessionary news out of Europe. Now trading over $27 again (last time it hit this level I took profits, then bought back in around $24), I am thinking to hold until either the news in the middle east cools off, or it hits my current Sell target of $34...

    (NYSE:MCP) and (MCP-PRA)... More details of this trade in the REE Concentrator... I am thinking to see $13 for MCP by the end of the day.

    Sandstorm Gold (SNDXF) my favorite gold streamer is back over $9 per share, and I am thinking of adding more in anticipation of $10. Also eyeing silver streamer (their alumni run Sandstorm) Silver Wheaton (NYSE:SLW) for re-entry after a long absence, probably when and if silver dips to $26. It flirted with $27.60 this morning, and then recovered, but volatility appears to be increasing...

    Just some topics to start a new QC.

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Comments (305)
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  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5993) | Send Message
     
    And the market manipulators are at it again:
    http://tinyurl.com/988...
    10 Aug 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5993) | Send Message
     
    Gold Fields (GFI) announces that the EPA of Ghana has lifted the temporary suspension on Tarkwa Gold Mine's heap leach facilities.
    10 Aug 2012, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    China may be entering a rough patch. http://bit.ly/NhL6jo Things don't look better in the near view either. Global economic activity is continuing to stagnate or contract. Very few bright spots to look at. Brazil, India and Congo?
    10 Aug 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    2:46 PM Off 2.2% today in the wake of a crop report confirming what everybody already knew (a very short crop), corn may also be fading on a rumor the White House could be open to waving the ethanol requirement for fuel. Comment! [Commodities, On the
    10 Aug 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2070) | Send Message
     
    And LT -- I think that ethanol rumor may be the cause for the Monsanto MON 2% drop today.
    10 Aug 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Rather than waive the ethanol requirement (which is now an actual EPA requirement for many gasoline mixes due to the discovery that the alternative additives used earlier were strong carcinogens), I would think that we might see a reduction in the trade barriers to importing ethanol. This would be popular with everyone except the corn lobby, as imports (Brazil springs to mind) are cheaper than the domestic corn squeezin's - don't impact the world's grain/food supply - and would maintain existing gasoline mixes without experimenting with carcinogens.

     

    One upshot just might be a modicum of support for cellulosic ethanol research, which several years ago was close to a commercial scale test before the backing "went away". Needless to say, ethanol made from lawn waste and sawgrass doesn't evoke images of starving kids in Biafra, and it has the added benefit of being even cheaper than imported ethanol while being truly renewable.
    10 Aug 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    You grossly overstate how much corn is used in the ethanol process. Most of the corn is still used for feed after the alcohol is removed.
    10 Aug 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    It might be a good time to enter MEOH. (Methanol producer).
    10 Aug 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    WHERE did I state how much corn is being used for ethanol?

     

    The only gross overstatement is to point out my abject failure to fill your strawman's shoes.

     

    Here are my thoughts on the matter, as clearly and simply as I can recap them:

     

    1. Government should not be subsidizing corn, sugar, or any other commodity, food group or product. I know I cannot stop them, but I also don't hesitate to point it out. If 1 penny of public treasure is transferred to pay for this I am against it, and that is NOT a gross overstatement.

     

    2. I know that much of the solid byproducts from ethanol production are recycled as a component for animal feed. The topic pertains to the human food chain. Indirectly routiing it through expensive beef or pork is not what concerns folks who are living a little lower on the hog... LOL, or actually, who are not getting animal protein in their diets at all.

     

    3. World food prices (for humans) are impacted by policies that use food grains for fuel. I am convinced that IF ethanol is ultimately to be used as a commercial fuel, the only logical way to do it would be via what I pointed out above, ie, celluslosic ethanol.

     

    Since you asked, however, I did spot this quote, perhaps this is the strawman you really want to argue with:

     

    "About 40% of the U.S. corn crop is used to make ethanol, under federal mandate. Another 40% is used as animal feed, both here and abroad. The remaining 20% is eaten in mostly processed foods in the United States such as high-fructose corn syrup and items like corn flakes."

     

    http://usat.ly/MIU05y
    10 Aug 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    At one time Monsanto was a leader in research into creating extremely cheap cellulosic ethanol from waste products, MJ...

     

    I haven't checked to see the status of this topic in a while. Maybe MON still has their old pilot lab mothballed somewhere?

     

    But I doubt that there is a good way to invest in cellulosic ethanol anyway. The weather pattern is unlikely to yield such a poor corn crop to the point where a permanent change in funding will occur.

     

    Still, it might be a blue sky opportunity, looking long term, if there is anyone in the US still trying to make cellulosic traction...
    10 Aug 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    "About 40% of the U.S. corn crop is used to make ethanol, under federal mandate. Another 40% is used as animal feed, both here and abroad. The remaining 20% is eaten in mostly processed foods in the United States such as high-fructose corn syrup and items like corn flakes."

     

    :-) They lie. I don't eat corn syrup or corn flakes, but enjoy Fritos corn flakes and cornbread.
    10 Aug 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    MJ, don't know whether you have visited the most recent APC but thought you might find a development a bit intriguing. AXPW announced plans to report Q2 financial results before market open on 8/15 with the associated conference call scheduled for mid-morning 8/16.

     

    Fascinating development to ponder.
    10 Aug 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2070) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    I'm not up on MON's pilot lab but I did come across their description of Ceres Inc which went public earlier this year CERE:

     

    "Ceres is a leading developer of high-yielding energy crops that can be planted as feedstocks for cellulosic ethanol production. Its development efforts cover switchgrass, sorghum, miscanthus, energycane and woody crops. The ... company also licenses its technology and traits to other organizations." http://bit.ly/OXVmOh

     

    I'll have to do more research on them. Their share price has had a nice drop since the IPO -- but their volume liquidity is dreadful -- and you know the premium I place on volume liquidity in this volatile market!
    10 Aug 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    I'll look them over, and thanks...

     

    I do NOT expect to find them to be investible just yet. As I recall, much of the problem lies in arriving at a method of breaking down the biomass, usually with microbial or enzyme methods (or both). There is another method which is very energy intensive which I think no one was pursuing several years back when I was focused on this... The problems involved keeping the microbes and enzyme recipes viable long enough to use them in the process. A "vertically integrated" approach was being followed in several of the pilot plants which called for the enzyme/microbe mixes to be created from scratch in the same facility. Trying to maintain consistancy from batch to batch was an issue, particularly when using mixes sourced from outside...

     

    Sorry, my memory is sketchy on this topic.

     

    The company I briefly held a small number of shares in, and tracked, has subsequently sold off its holdings and is no longer in that business.
    10 Aug 2012, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2070) | Send Message
     
    I'll take a look at the comments D-Inv, I appreciate the heads up. Do you have a theory on why they would wait a day for the call? It's certainly not very common procedure.
    10 Aug 2012, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    "Do you have a theory on why they would wait a day for the call?"

     

    :-) The most plausible theory I suppose is that some type of important event elsewhere requiring TG's presence on the 15th has been set according to the schedule of others. Reporting earlier might not have been feasible without paying the accountants considerable bonus and John Petersen advises the 14th is the last day for compliance with SEC Q2 quarterly reports. Other hypotheses include 1) delay of the CC so signing of a significant contract can be announced, 2) delay of the CC so terms of a buyout offer negotiated on the 15th can be explained/announced in the CC, 3) results were so bad the board wanted to give shareholders some time to digest before the meeting, and 4) TG sold gaming rights to Vegas bookmakers for wagers on the number of speculative comments that appear on APCs before the CC.
    10 Aug 2012, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4597) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... My favorite explanation for a one day delay is; Nothing much happened during the entire quarter, so it just doesn't matter.
    10 Aug 2012, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2169) | Send Message
     
    DRich, you're no fun!
    10 Aug 2012, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    It took an extra day to edit the MTM study of paint drying on the battery line...
    10 Aug 2012, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    "I would think that we might see a reduction in the trade barriers to importing ethanol".

     

    Gimme a break - a sensible, albeit tardy, action in this area by *our* government?! I knew you "artistes" smoked a lot of weed, but ... ;-))

     

    And during campaign season?

     

    HardToLove
    12 Aug 2012, 07:12 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    friend in Missouri told me the corn there has ears but no kernals of corn. Googled that for this and it seems there are senators that want to drop the fuel requirement.

     

    look at photo 19 at the bottom.

     

    http://huff.to/ToHgG6
    10 Aug 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    Joules unlimited remember them one of those items I found a couple years back and I believe Rob added it to the nano patch. It is now rolling out internationally.

     

    "Joule’s renewable fuel platform will best the scale, productivities and costs of any known alternative to fossil fuel today, with no reliance on biomass feedstocks or precious natural resources. Our inputs are sunlight, waste CO2 and non-potable water. Our output? Millions of gallons of clean, renewable fuel that drops into existing infrastructure. Next step: change the world."

     

    Still not public.

     

    http://bit.ly/P6gp0L
    10 Aug 2012, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2169) | Send Message
     
    DG: Some of the numbers Joule had on their site, i.e., one acre can produce (about) 60k$/yr of diesel. Looking at their "flat panel bio-reactors" and the probable cost to cover one acre with them, I have trouble believing they can ever produce enough to cover the cost of the hardware investment. There is also cooling, nutrient input, maintenance on the pumps, fuel separation hardware, service techs and etc. Debt service. Hummm.

     

    Looks like another of those "it will work when diesel fuel is $12/gallon" plans.

     

    Of course, if they can get usGov money at 1% interest for 10 years, they just might make it. I sure am getting cynical in my "retiring" years.
    11 Aug 2012, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    "directly produce up to 15,000 gallons of diesel and 25,000 gallons of ethanol per acre annually at stable costs as low as $20/bble and $0.60/gallon respectively (including subsidies)".

     

    You will never get 25000 gallons of corn ethanol from an acre. They are way ahead of the game. Just think of the chores required to farm one acre of corn. From planting, fertilizer, harvest, transport, convert to ethanol and all the equipment issues you pointed out above are multiplied many times over with corn and ethanol production..

     

    Its no contest.
    11 Aug 2012, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2169) | Send Message
     
    RE: Joule biofuel. Until I see an EXPERIMENTAL test that documents the grams/day of ethanol produced by a square meter of "bio-reactor", I will not believe the productivity numbers Joule is waving about.

     

     It sounds more like "marketing engineering" test results to me. i.e., " Just how big a fib will they believe?"
    12 Aug 2012, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, I have no way to determine if this is a fib or fact. I think this is a technology that we should be very aware of however because it could be a really big game changer. If there is no fib here it will change the worlds energy markets in big way.

     

    Even Japan could produce thier own fuel and dirty coal plants would simply become another CO2 source for fuels. Scrubbing CO2 sources for the potential fuel would become big buisness. I have no idea where this would eventually lead.

     

    Catalytic converters that recycle harvested fuel instead of burning it......the imagination is endless......what is practical I don't know.
    13 Aug 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    We can only hope, DG. I can't remember where I first ran across this concept... Maybe an old Analog magazine. Its an idea that has been knocking around the fringe for decades.
    13 Aug 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4597) | Send Message
     
    >DG ... Flue gas has been a staple input for the algae-to-fuel folks for a long time. I don't know the economics (probably lousy) but who knows whether the smokestack offset will out weigh other considerations. It is a source of waste that needs continued research.
    13 Aug 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4850) | Send Message
     
    This is quoted from Young Research. I thought y'all might find it interesting.

     

    <<The United States harvests about 40% of the world’s corn crop. According to Bloomberg 40% of the U.S. corn crop was turned into ethanol in 2011. The government requires that 13.2 billion gallons of ethanol are produced in 2012. Jim Abrams of U.S. News and World Report writes “Livestock farmers and ranchers seeing their feed costs rise because of the worst drought in a quarter-century are demanding that the Environmental Protection Agency waive production requirements for corn-based ethanol.”
    With competing markets vying for what little corn may be harvested in 2012, prices for products relying on the corn harvest, like meat and gasoline, will probably increase. The already stretched American consumer will face higher prices for protein and transportation, leaving fewer dollars for other consumption spending.>>
    11 Aug 2012, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Cellulosic ethanol data:

     

    http://bit.ly/QRqvUl

     

    A commercial scale cellulosic ethanol plant is being commissioned near Vero Beach, FL by a jv between Ineos Bio (div of Ineos) and New Planet Energy Florida LLE.

     

    The new facility is designed to produce 8mmgy plus 6 mw of electricity from yard and citrus waste.

     

    Unfortunately it would appear that it is difficult to invest in Ineos.

     

    A take from the ethanol industry:

     

    http://bit.ly/QRqvUm

     

    I found mention that the Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit expired Jan1 (something which I was unaware of). This would mean that the barriers against importing ethanol were dropped, as well as the $.45/gal ethanol subsidy. (I will look around for verification that this did, indeed, hold up). It would appear that the plan to address this involved planting a big increase in corn acreage, while the ethanol producers geared up to increase exports of American corn-ethanol. The drought has altered this plan, of course...
    11 Aug 2012, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    More proof that Wall St. afraid of gov't...they bet against the USA and have lagged big time, now they're unwinding shorts against the EZ...
    http://bloom.bg/QWkrKk
    13 Aug 2012, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4160) | Send Message
     
    Active volcano(s?) in the Pacific. Pumice prices to fall? http://bit.ly/RGOIwj
    13 Aug 2012, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2070) | Send Message
     
    The DJIA is up 1,000 points since May while nothing has changed. We still have EU chaos; US deficit and fiscal cliff looming; and China is taking a breather. Much of the US market support is undoubtedly coming from lands of "dirtier shirts" in the hamper: Troubles abroad keep cash flowing to U.S. http://on.wsj.com/Ncaipb
    13 Aug 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Under the current surreal world conditions, the American exchanges have been largely detached from America. Part of this is the recognition of the dominance of huge multinationals, most of whom do most of their business outside America's borders. Then there is flight FROM a bizarre situation in Europe where they have literally lost control of their own currency, TO the world's reserve currency.

     

    We are likely to see these in-flows accelerate as Europe sinks deeper into Recession. Multinat's will start to creep some of their hidden trillions overseas back onto project lists in the United States, and we might even see a small bump in jobs as this takes place.

     

    We should not be astonished when bad news in Europe increasingly means more money chasing stocks on our exchanges.

     

    I find myself watching China with rapt attention. I believe they are moving with rapid dispatch to firm up their soft landing, and taking advantage of the lull to reorganize their government controlled economy along lines which resemble the European cartel model, with major industries seeing small companies subsumed into larger ones, or outright destroyed by new regulation. This process is, in my opinion, going to be balanced with some moderately strong stimulus for the newly formed cartels, allowing them to grow rapidly and fill any vacuum created by the changes.

     

    China's absence from the world stage while these changes occur will be brief and will be marked by many exceptions where the new titans acquire attractive resources in the clueless West. AONE will not be the last such purchase, and they are intently searching for more such government financed boondoggles in the altevergy industry in the US and Europe to snap up for literal pennies.

     

    So my theory sees the US and China as increasingly apart from Europe and their troubles.
    13 Aug 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2169) | Send Message
     
    Mercy, I can't help but think that US citizens reaching for decent returns on their retirement funds are also keeping the stock market somewhat inflated. Given US gov bond returns, they don't have many choices.
    13 Aug 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    I have to agreee with all 3 of you, it is increasingly more difficult for me to find investments.

     

    I especially like TB's assessment of China/AONE...I too think they will buy many assetts on the cheap...As he as discussed before China desperately wants tech.
    13 Aug 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2070) | Send Message
     
    Agree with you TB and Silicon.

     

    I am "beginning" to expect a mini rally (after a potential dip from Jackson Hole disappointment) which may be largely fed by Europeans and yield starved US investors.

     

    I think the decoupling of USD weakness as a necessary ingredient to US market rallies -- is also evidence that this market is likely not going to behave as we all expect. http://bit.ly/QuX9qK

     

    This weekend John Bogle, at 83 years of age and the founder of Vanguard, said he’s never seen a market as treacherous as this one.
    13 Aug 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    LOL they don't call it "the most hated rally" for no reason :)
    13 Aug 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2169) | Send Message
     
    LT, Buying A123 for the purpose of making batteries in the USA at a competitive price just doesn't make sense to me. Possibly as a way to avoid import tariffs?

     

    I don't think it's the tech that China wants so much as the political leverage from having US jobs under their control. Political influence comes in many forms other then "paper bags full of money".

     

    China might also see firms like A123 as having the potential to attract more US government money for "jobs creation" schemes. More politics, as opposed to real business productivity. Is anyone paying attention?
    13 Aug 2012, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    I don't want to speculate on what the early motives are, but I think we all agree that China's agenda is to take over the USA dominant role in all things globally. That means tech, manufacturing & financial.
    13 Aug 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2070) | Send Message
     
    Brilliant 17-minute video on how the BOTs operate in the stock market place -- the complex made simple: http://bit.ly/MXkGiZ

     

    (posted by Dr. Kris on StockTalk)
    13 Aug 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4850) | Send Message
     
    MJ - Excellent video. Thanks for the post!
    13 Aug 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    Great vid MJ!

     

    HardToLove
    13 Aug 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    this one's for you, guns.
    http://yhoo.it/MUFLAI
    13 Aug 2012, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5985) | Send Message
     
    Its worse than you think. I knew this was going to happen.

     

    http://bit.ly/Nul9LQ
    13 Aug 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Know why the turtle is called Gamera? Ever notice that the monsters all end with ra? (Gojira, Mosura, Gamera)

     

    The Japanese word for turtle is kame (pronounced ka - meh)

     

    Perhaps someone thought a monster named Kamera wouldn't work
    14 Aug 2012, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5985) | Send Message
     
    At the risk of going way off topic. Do you know what Gojira meant?
    14 Aug 2012, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    Its worse than that. Its effecting the children.

     

    http://bit.ly/N37Bov
    15 Aug 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    6:15 PM Enjoy the quiet before the storm while it lasts, Der Spiegel's Martin Hesse writes: Banks, investors and companies are bracing themselves for a breakup of the euro... and are thus increasing the likelihood that precisely this will happen. "They're sawing at the limb that they're sitting on." [Global & FX] 7 Comments
    14 Aug 2012, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    El-Erian from Pimco opined there's a 1/3rd chance for break up.
    http://bit.ly/O73WG5
    14 Aug 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    More surprising is his idea that there's a 2/3 chance there will be no breakup...
    14 Aug 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    Yes, but he put a time-frame on it... within 6 months.
    14 Aug 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5993) | Send Message
     
    I think another reason capital is leaving their markets is that private capital has little confidence in the numbers... The EU and the different countries and the IMF are rigging the numbers in an attempt to draw in private capital. That only works if people believe the numbers. This morning Greece sold €4.06 B in 13-week Treasury bills yielding 4.43%. Normally that yield would be a measure of perceived risk. But those T bills were sold to service debt to the ECB and it was the ECB that bought the T Bills. So the true risk is masked.
    14 Aug 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    I have also seen numbers that have increased to better than 50/50 and one analyst gives it a 66% chance of breaking up.
    14 Aug 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    I'd love to know how those odds are calculated. I-Chi anyone?
    14 Aug 2012, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    They are calculated on derivatives trades.... (I am sure u knew this) and yes, I would like to see the formula too.

     

    Bill Gross & Elrian have both been mouthy and mostly wrong last year. So I think as TB stated, he was conservative in the 30% .

     

    From what I read, all corporations are hedging for a break-up and moving money around like crazy.. I am nearly 100% positive that the in-flow of money from the EZ crisis is what's propping the mkt here now. There is no where else to go with it. We are the best rigged game in town :) and I bet you they don't leave with as much as they came with
    14 Aug 2012, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    Isn't the Soros 90 day prediction nearly upon us?
    14 Aug 2012, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    Hat tip to John Lounsbury:
    (Short video, 1 minute 30 seconds)
    http://bit.ly/OurZ7F
    15 Aug 2012, 03:41 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    Soros is getting married. I guess he's not worried. :)
    15 Aug 2012, 03:45 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    A warning from Doug Kass that I intend to take in the morning .. if it's not too late....Also look at Berkshire and other big funds reducing Proctor Gamble, Kraft and most all financials.
    http://bit.ly/PaKj4F
    14 Aug 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    I'll wait for you to sell yours. I need to get it cheap. Got dry powder?
    14 Aug 2012, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    Good morning Robert, I am not sure what you meant?

     

    I won't change my long term hold positions. I will take a small overall short position in one of the index shorts.
    15 Aug 2012, 04:34 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    Buy VXX.
    15 Aug 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5993) | Send Message
     
    August 13, 2012 - 'Severe abnormalities' found in Fukushima butterflies. From: BBC, by Nick Crumpton.

     

    Exposure to radioactive material released into the environment has caused mutations in butterflies found in Japan. Even worse, six months after the accident they collected adults from 10 Fukushima sites and found that those butterflies showed a mutation rate more than twice that of those found in close time proximity to the accident. The team concluded that this higher rate of mutation came from eating contaminated food, but also from mutations of the parents' genetic material that was passed on to the next generation, even though these mutations were not evident in the previous generations' adult butterflies. http://tinyurl.com/c7s...
    ----
    Of course, once the genetic material is modified, there is no going back.
    15 Aug 2012, 03:55 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    "Of course, once the genetic material is modified, there is no going back."

     

    I have wondered how this will effect things long term. Japan has had two major nuclear disasters in a lifetime. It can't be good, and on top of that, they dumped a lot of waste into the ocean.
    15 Aug 2012, 04:35 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    That ocean is our ocean too. Sick seals and radiated tuna is probably just the tip of the iceberg.

     

    http://bit.ly/OYaKaH
    15 Aug 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    Israeli govt is handing out gas masks in anticipation...
    http://bloom.bg/NBOF47
    15 Aug 2012, 04:40 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5993) | Send Message
     
    August 15, 2012 Goldman Pulls The Plug On More QE In 2012.
    From: ZeroHedge, by Tyler Durden.

     

    Jan Hatzius (Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist) says, we do not expect a move to QE3 at the September 12-13 FOMC meeting. "Our best estimate is that it will take until late 2012/early 2013 before Fed officials return to balance sheet expansion." http://tinyurl.com/9ba...
    15 Aug 2012, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    I believe we are about to see inflation take off. The drought will be one source - government stim programs in Europe will be another - government stim program in China still another - and currency wars in the 2nd tier nations (Brazil, etc) fighting to keep up with the dollar and the euro manipulation will be another. Should these factors combine with an oil spike caused by some geopolitical upheaval in the middle east...
    15 Aug 2012, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    you worry too much about inflation....we have heard that for 4 years. I believe the EZ to dampen any inflation reported numbers for a while longer.
    The fed does too, as they keep extending the cheap interest. I restate again that a good dose of 10%+ inflation would help this mess about as much as QE does.
    15 Aug 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    Brazil is going to do a stim package, It was in the Financial Times this morning.
    15 Aug 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    Look at the 10 year climbing from the 1.4X range back up to the 1.8X range now. That is a lot of inflation or fear change twords the inflation side.

     

    Johns link last week still sits in the back of my mind and LT's comment about the past 4 years does too. I have been firmly in the inflation camp for a long time but my eyes are getting tired looking for it. Still sitting with short position in bonds so I guess I have voted with my wallet for inflation.

     

    Got Gold?
    16 Aug 2012, 05:27 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    To all the Axionista's that hang out here:

     

    12:46 PM Ford (F +0.5%) plans to debut 5 battery-powered vehicles this year and forecasts electric/hybrid cars could make up as much as 25% of sales by 2020. To that end, the automaker is pushing the pedal to the metal on EV development by bringing battery research in house and hiring dozens of engineers. [Consumer] 2 Comments
    15 Aug 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    Take a look at this:

     

    11:40 AM What would the S&P be trading at if "Lehman II" were taken off the table, asks Mark Dow. The EU's toxic assets have been making a steady progression from the private sector to the offiical sector, he says, meaning when Europe does blow up, most of the bad paper won't be subject to a margin call - the opposite of what happened post-Lehman in 2008. [Global & FX] 2 Comments
    15 Aug 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    12:09 PM ExxonMobil (XOM) begins investigating a possible oil spill near its facility off Nigeria's southeast coast, where local fishermen say waters where they fish are covered with a toxic film. Oil spills are common in Africa's top energy producer, where thousands of barrels are spilled every year and lax enforcement means there are few penalties. [Energy] Comment!
    15 Aug 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    Tell me what you guys think about the VIX ?

     

    12:08 PM More on the VIX below 15: A chart of the VIX going back to 1994 shows 2 lengthy periods in which it held below that level - both were accompanied by healthy returns for the S&P. The VIX today -1.5% to 14.63. 5 Comments
    15 Aug 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    I am in the VXX right now. In case things blow up. I seems much easier to me than trying to do options or guess the right stock.
    16 Aug 2012, 05:30 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    8:39 AM The recent drop in the VIX to below 15 is about the 5th time at that level in the last 2 years, notes MarketTech, and the other instances have indeed coincided with market tops. The pullback in the S&P 500 on the other 4 occasions tended to last for about 2 months and range from 6-19%. 1 Comment
    16 Aug 2012, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack announced a buyback program for pork, lamb, chicken and catfish...
    http://bit.ly/PdWqhj
    15 Aug 2012, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    BO vote buying scheme. The guy has NO sense of morals, is that the type of person we want to run our country.

     

    Sorry to turn that political but that is the entire reason for what is happening in that article. Buying votes.
    16 Aug 2012, 05:33 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    I have been reading today where there are now questions whether we get QE-3 or not....some say the numbers are too good for more easing. ONe thinks the fed missed it's window in June to ease before the election.

     

    I have thought all summer that the CB's are trying to extend the time between easing (sorta like slowly weaning the mkt. off of QE)....
    So I am not sure we get as much if any QE next month.
    Thoughts welcome.
    15 Aug 2012, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4160) | Send Message
     
    Not weaning. Its more like the battle of Bunker Hill. They're out of bullets and need to hold on until the problem is closer. They must pray each of their precious last bullets (of easing) is enough to survive and win if used wisely.

     

    Nervy.
    15 Aug 2012, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    Re: QE3:Did you see this, LT?
    http://bloom.bg/R3ts4c

     

    and this one?
    http://bit.ly/Q1clvb
    15 Aug 2012, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    I think its to close to the election......but there is nothing this administration will not do to get reelected so it could happen late Sept for no other reason than to buy more votes.

     

    I think that would tell us just how "independent" the fed really is if it happens so close to the election.
    16 Aug 2012, 05:37 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    DG, I agree that the VIX may be the cheapest way to hedge.

     

    I disagree about the political situation with the Fed. If they wanted to sway an election, they would have moved in July/Aug. It takes about 6 months for it to kick in and work, They had every justification to move then. Unemployment still >8% (which I think is the new norm no matter what because of the baby boomer retirement situation), Growth dropped from 2.5% down to 1.5%, inflation non existent (excluding food & energy, which I hate but won't go there).
    But there is something going on ...so they held off. If QE does come, I look for it to be small, something just to calm the mkt, and maintain what we have. I think they are saving the big QE for the EZ disaster that's in the works.
    IMO, I just don't think the fed cares about the election, they want congress to fix their part no matter who is in office. I think he knows QE keeps money & credit flowing, but is not helping in job creation, unemployment or the deficit. So he holds back until the EZ goes or blows. One step further while we are speculating, We may not ever get anymore QE if things stay stable where they are.
    One other reason I have not seen mentioned, WHAT IF...the EZ fixes it's problems or avoids a break up ? Then money flows back out of USA overpriced stocks into cheap EZ stocks (just like the bottom of the USA crash in 08/09?
    Then we get a monster of a correction, not a crash, but that 10-20% doozy. That is a real threat IMO. That very well could be the forward disaster he is waiting for. Not the election.
    16 Aug 2012, 06:23 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    EZ fixes itself.....I am going to laugh for a week.

     

    Could happen....eventually, but not this year or even next....which kinda means its too late and there will be some form of breakup. JMHO
    16 Aug 2012, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    The mere mention of QE3 by the fed would cause a surge in the market. We would not need to wait 6 months. Folks would be going to the polls all giddy over thier 401k voting for BO "The Man" .....they just sold their votes to. These same fools would never understand why the price of gas began to climb again. Damn fools.
    16 Aug 2012, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    Yes, there could be a pop in the mkt if QE was large enough....however if it was not as large as expected, the mkt. would drop. Either way, it would create an unsustainable rally. So by Nov. it would not carry weight or enough weight to sway the election like a massive QE package would have in July or Aug.1....The fed missed it's opportunity IMO.
    Besides, the longer things stay like they are, the less everyone believes we get any QE at all or at best much later in the year or next year.
    I don't think the fed deserves your political criticism, Bernanke supported Bush/Paulsen in '08 with TARP...he also backed Obama's stimulus package and budget actions...so I see that as net neutral. The last 4 years have been extraordinary times with unprecedented consequences and required the same in measures to counter it.
    While we don't all agree on it, the fed's actions have worked. The one step necessary to keep the recovery in place lies with Congress, not necessarily the fed. Oil prices are controlled by the oil cartel, Not the fed. Demand is down so should be oil, but it keeps going up......and food prices are at a record because of a drought ..not the fed.
    16 Aug 2012, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5985) | Send Message
     
    "...the fed's actions have worked. The one step necessary to keep the recovery in place lies with Congress..."

     

    Not really, unless we continually define down what we want the Fed to do. If you look back at history, which means going back before we were born, to the early sentiments of why such institutions like the Fed were touted as necessary, was that the economy was to be taken out of politics and put in the hands of experts. If you looked at ballots from the late 1800s and early 1900s, they were very long. People voted for a whole slew of public offices. Now many of these positions are moved to adminstratively appointed ones and are no longer voted on. It was the product of the whole "technocat" movement that was given birth during the early decades of the 1900s in the US.

     

    From these lines of thought you see the foundation of the the birth of such legislation as Humphrey-Hawkins. The Fed is to maintain stable prices and full employment. In other words, Congress really didn't want to be bothered with these issues. Now we are being told, that Congress is the only one that can deal with these issues. Funny of what is supposed to "work" keeps changing.

     

    The problem with this line of thinking is that people never learn to challenge the conventional wisdom with logic. We blindly accept the conventional wisdom about inflation, and while the current metrics can prove useful, what is even more useful is learning not to accept the religious rhetoric, but to think plainly about what is really happening.

     

    A CB is just a consumption subsidy. All assets in the world are eventually consumed. Whether the assest are consumed very quickly (like assets in the CPI) or assets that back up stock certificates (like FF&E), the only issue with their consumption is time. When unemployment is low, and a CB is very accommodative, assets in the CPI "inflate" more so than finacial assets (stocks and bonds). When unemployment is high and fiscal policy is threatening to make it even higher, CPI assets don't "inflate" because people are more apt to save. That means they are more apt to consume financial assets, causing them to inflate. The liquidity then tends to chase risk-on or risk-off depending on perceptions about the extent to which the CB will subsidize consumption.

     

    So saying that a CB action's "have worked", and then not understanding how a CB really "works" can lead to very severe misunderstandings of how the CB will affect the markets, and thus lead you to less than productive investment decisions.

     

    The Fed is on the sidelines for now with regards to growing their balance sheet, but they are still engaged in consumption subsidies. The Fed's balance sheet has not been reduced, and they are still engaged in OT. OT doesn't grow the balance sheet, but it suppresses yield on long bonds, thus inducing the risk on trade. Combine this with some better economic data, and capital flight from Europe, and you get a risk-on trade.

     

    Based on what BB has said when you read the minutes and the Q&A, he is ready to act if things look like they are coming apart again, but barring that he feels OT is all he needs to do.

     

    The most likely CB balance sheet to grow is the ECB. Sept is a month to watch. The German court is ruling and Greece is coming up on deadline. Spain and Italy have stablized some, but are teetering. Europe hasn't changed its business model, they just hope time and debt restructuring will somehow solve their problems for them.

     

    So for now and until Sept, the Fed will sit on the sidelines, the equities markets will tend to drift up and so will treas yields based on slightly improving economic data. If Sept brings a speed bump for ECB action, then you will have another risk-off event, only to see things resume another upward trend till December as Europe schedules another meeting to have a meeting to develop a plan to come up with a plan.

     

    2013 holds some substantial risk for changes in the subsidy mix. The elections in November are clearly a variable for that analysis, so depending on how all that shakes out will determine if a strategy re-evaluation will be necessary.
    16 Aug 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    OG .. I did read the Bloomberg article, and that was one of many that say basically the same thing. I just don't think they will move with growth at 1.5-2.5%. On CNBC Citigroup analyst sees more growth right now, numbers just rose in July, and he says companies are not talking anything about worry in the Asia or the USA...they think they are hedged against the EZ, but time will tell there. I'm not sure. Too much going on behind the scenes such as, they say the ECB is accumulating all the bad paper so that a breakup won't trigger margin calls (CDS & Derivatives trigger). Because they own it.
    My purpose for posting this, is without QE-3, I wonder if Kass isn't right when he says we have seen the high for the year? I was thinking this already before he said it too. I am just figuring out how I want to hedge against a down turn.
    I am not looking for a crash...but 10%+/- I think would be in the cards.
    Things have been too quiet too long, it's like the quiet before the storm.
    16 Aug 2012, 06:07 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    I believe it was Phil Davis (I am not bothering to look for the quote) that said he doesn't believe there will be QE3 while stocks are near an all-time high. If I am attributing this comment to the wrong writer I apologize!
    16 Aug 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    I am not smart enough to analyze this, it looks like a correction in the works, but definitely an uptrend in place. It fits nicely with the QE theories, no QE and the "white spaces" get filled. With QE, the risk trade is on again. Correct me if you see it different.

     

    4 Charts Bears do not want to see:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    16 Aug 2012, 06:48 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    Marc Faber: Beware of fake rally
    http://bit.ly/RZjke9
    16 Aug 2012, 06:50 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    8:27 AM Sales of 30-year corporate debt hit $86.3B YTD this week, already surpassing the $84.7B sold in all of 2011. Rubbing their eyes in disbelief over the low yields available, businesses are rushing issues to market, and pension plans - desperate for yield and shunning the Treasury market - are eager buyers. LQD +4.3% YTD while yielding 4%. [U.S. Economy] Comment!
    16 Aug 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    8:18 AM Allowing inflation over the Fed target of 2% in order to reduce unemployment "could well be part of an appropriate policy," says Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota. Besides proving he skipped over the 1970's chapter in his economics textbook, the comments are notable in that Kocherlakota is considered to reside in the Fed's hawkish camp. [U.S. Economy] 1 Comment
    16 Aug 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    Here is the "Other" side of the PM argument. If he is correct we could have a very large buying op coming up somewhere down the road. Long term I am still committed and do not know where the politics will take prices over the short term.

     

    Charts today simply mirror the political wrangling in the markets by the CB's and Govts around the world. If you can predict the next CB or Govt move with the charts I would be all in.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    16 Aug 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    Central Banks have been buying gold like mad! It was in mineweb.com today.
    16 Aug 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    I continue to accumulate Sandstorm Gold... Central Banks buying gold might feed into the Basel III tier 1 rating proposal for gold as an asset class. If the intention is to install gold reserves in the 2Bigs, or loan them gold (I would anticipate some creative bookkeeping, essentially offsetting toxic paper with Tier 1 gold marked to market), the central banks will need a lot of gold.
    16 Aug 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    Yep, China really had a big quarter in gold purchases.
    16 Aug 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1930) | Send Message
     
    Global gold demand says it was down 7% last quarter due to India acquiring less because of their weaker currency and tariffs. and china buying less.

     

    http://on.wsj.com/QFQHgp
    16 Aug 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    China's new government is building stockpiles everywhere, and Cartels to supply them as well as pull from them. China's gold reserve is relatively small for such a large country. I keep expecting them to make a major move, but I believe they want an event where prices are cheap...
    16 Aug 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    Jukurt, This is from an article I read July 20th concernin second quarter.

     

    "Gold imports by mainland China from Hong Kong reached 314,810 kilograms in the first five months, compared with 39,607.4 kilograms a year ago, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the Hong Kong government."

     

    Something is not adding up in our two sources. The article is below. Unless thier imports from someone else dropped a lot.

     

    http://bit.ly/Rl9O6i
    16 Aug 2012, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    That WSj article is behind a subscription wall, Jak...

     

    I have seen similar confusion in the past, however, when analysts unfamiliar with China get confused with the role played by Hong Kong. There is a tendency to just "add them together", and get a "total China" number and then start using it to make comparisons.

     

    I believe Bloomberg may be correct to watch the role Hong Kong plays as the gateway for such movements into China. What would be a mistake would be to compare a set of numbers from one year where Hong Kong was included ("Total China") to one where it was segregated.

     

    It would appear to me that the recent move was toward strong imports. Given that China is also the leading gold producer, this would mean that they are amassing considerable gold recently.

     

    Note also in DG's linked article the bit about China paving the way for their major banks to hold gold in their reserves...

     

    The Basel regulations are lurking in the news in many subtle places.
    16 Aug 2012, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    Re: GOLD, from what I read today, it is physical usage, such as jewelry etc. that is way down.
    I don't think anyone can figure what the CB's and govt's are doing. I do agree there is alot of shuffling going on between countries. Some selling some and others accumulating.
    I tend to agree with TB that for TBTF banks that gold will be allowed to be marked to market and counted as tier one capital. That is just a gimme to keep from printing a few more billion.
    I personally thought gold would have dropped this summer....but it is strong at $1500-1600....so that tells me something is in the works. Too much support in gold, Silver would be $50 again if the invisible hands and JPM was not keeping it cheap.
    16 Aug 2012, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    Everything is manipulated.

     

    http://bit.ly/Rk9AvW
    16 Aug 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5993) | Send Message
     
    95 handle on oil.
    16 Aug 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5985) | Send Message
     
    $4+ gas will cut into the improving economic data. This will force the markets back down from where ever they are when gas prices curtail spending.
    16 Aug 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    I couldn't agree more with $4 gas hurting economic data. That did it this spring and it will do it again. It also will/has affected things like credit card delinquencies .
    16 Aug 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    and student loans, too. The kids can't pay and the parents are falling behind. Can't be discharged in bankruptcy. Student debt is a balloon in the making.
    16 Aug 2012, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    If you cosigned and the student is not paying the govt may take your ss payments to pay the loan.

     

    http://bit.ly/OnR1zN
    16 Aug 2012, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    It will collapse when BO unleashes the strategic reserves and raises margins. Vote buying 101....second verse. Not sure how he will fix the refinery shortage however.
    16 Aug 2012, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps the big O will release strategic reserves like he did a few years ago...just in time for the election.
    16 Aug 2012, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    Beat ya to it, but your comment proves you obviously have a brilliant mind.
    16 Aug 2012, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    Guns, you clearly brushed off the crystal ball. Here's the article that states USA and its friends, aka the G8 are considering another release of strategic reserves. Note the last paragraphs(edited below):
    "Last year, the United States and the IEA announced a coordinated drawdown of 60 million barrels..."
    "A week later the prices were back to about where they had been, though analysts say the drawdown could have stopped prices from going even higher."
    Yowza, there's lasting impact for ya!
    http://yhoo.it/NL4ju7
    17 Aug 2012, 06:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2070) | Send Message
     
    Hard to believe we are having such euphoria today!

     

    Well, I'm 60% cash, trimmed gains, and still riding long quality high yielders before I take few days off thru Labor day. I hope the euphoria holds until Jackson Hole, but just in case I'll still be watching to play SCO with oil above $95 and I still have my SDS hedge.

     

    Good luck everyone and watch for those false rallies Marc Faber warned about.

     

    mj
    16 Aug 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5993) | Send Message
     
    As you were saying that Mercy, I opened up a position in SDS following your lead.
    16 Aug 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5993) | Send Message
     
    Here is an interesting read on using a VIX 15 reading as an indication of a local market top. http://tinyurl.com/chj...

     

    The indicator has been very accurate and in each case, was followed by a large drop of >6%. If the pattern holds, a drop may start within the next few weeks. Each drop took an average of approximately 2 months to bottom. VIX closed at 14.29 today.
    16 Aug 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    Good find FAP...that correlates with my thinking too. Around labor day. Then the sept. fed meeting that could disappoint.
    16 Aug 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    FPA: Good catch. Did you notice the third comment about hedge funds? Of course, don't know how much credibility to give it.

     

    Anyway, recent chatter has been that although the VIX is low now the futures 6(?) months out are much higher. I've not gone looking for a source on that yet.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    Debt ceiling will be reached around 9/30/12 as I recall. That's another event to keep in sight. Given the political climate right before the elections, I don't think they (R & D parties) will play nicely. That could lead to some volatility and even another downgrade.
    Beware the Ides of September :) There's a little poetic license...
    16 Aug 2012, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    Keep an eye on the vix then.
    16 Aug 2012, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    Phil Davis says it all!
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    17 Aug 2012, 06:50 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    Thanks OG, I got a really go chuckle out of this line.

     

    "of course, since we got stimulus this time of year two years in a row - we have to expect it now because nothing is more scientific than two data points to determine a trend."
    17 Aug 2012, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Yes, from the chartist's guide to politics:

     

    17.6: Condition the voters to anticipate government handouts at a certain time, and then deliver on schedule.
    17 Aug 2012, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    China not only needs physical gold (for consumption) but the tech too...I think they are going after tech in a big way beginning now. AONE is just one example. Here is another.

     

    7:09 AM China National Gold's look into acquiring African Barrick Gold (ABX) is the latest in a series of moves by the country's producers to fill a supply shortfall - China consumes 800 tons gold/year, but produces just 360. The gold is nice, but there is knowledge too - foreign technology allows drilling 3X deeper than is currently done in China. Comment! [Commodities, M&A]
    17 Aug 2012, 07:12 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    Is that "consumption" on jewelry, coins and bars or used up in technology. I can not believe they consume that much gold it must be getting "converted" into coins, bars and jewelry.

     

    800 tons per year is phenominal.
    17 Aug 2012, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    China has been selling large quantities (a gram at a time) to its huge population, who then stash it in their rainy day fund. The Chinese have a long tradition of this...

     

    Much of the "consumption" is indeed in the manufacture of jewelry and investment coinage and bars, which of course also often exits the country as exports (China is a huge exporter of jewelry and jewelry findings). There is some non-recoverable consumption in the form of manufactured electionics. China produces massive numbers of these... A smart cell phone, for instance, uses a tiny amount of gold, about 1/1000 ounce. Most of this production also exits the country.
    17 Aug 2012, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    Housing market to take a hit?

     

    "This means that the offloading of GSE inventory has just increased by 50%. Goodbye housing market."

     

    "But more importantly, today's news brings up an interesting question: with the Treasury in effect announcing it is the beneficiary of the entire Fannie and Freddie's Income Statement, does that mean the Treasury is also on the hook for their $6+ trillion in debt?"

     

    "Inquiring minds want to know."

     

    link below

     

    http://bit.ly/NLywcB
    17 Aug 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    I read that, but doubt that housing takes the hit you think. More info needs to be released on just how this works....That $6 trillion in debt is safer than it was, but I am not sure what the long term plan is.
    We're dreaming if we think the private sector takes on that much housing debt and new loans every day.
    17 Aug 2012, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    Here is another link explaining it more:
    http://on.mktw.net/R6IING
    17 Aug 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5993) | Send Message
     
    I see (XIDE) recently executed a golden cross. That coupled with the Pep Boys news might promote a breakout. I own XIDE and am planing to buy more because of their association with Axion.
    17 Aug 2012, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    I looked at buying it at $2.80 in the past 10 days. Just hate them so much that I could not do it. But I lay odds that they are AXPW's partner.
    You probably have a winner. In fact, the partner may be a bigger winner than AXPW if you can time the play.
    17 Aug 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    I believe that Axion's initial battery partner will be East Penn, IF BMW and friends will accept East Penn as offering sufficient capacity to meet their needs and standards.

     

    Regardless what Axion might want, there is also a likelihood that a "shotgun wedding" will be engineered by the auto makers.
    17 Aug 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    That last paragraph is probably so true...."shotgun wedding".

     

    I can't help but wonder with the problem with fully automated carbon sheeting if this partnership won't be more of a buyout, or at least control than we think?
    17 Aug 2012, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    BO you did not kill Obama Bin Laden.

     

    Navy Seals did!!!!

     

    http://bit.ly/N59Eyg

     

    OPSEC video.

     

    http://bit.ly/TJBQ8Q
    17 Aug 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5993) | Send Message
     
    And I believe they were held back on several occasions by BO.
    17 Aug 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    Are we nearing the collapse? A short read that will get you thinking. It puts a lot of different pieces of the puzzle together in a logical sequence.

     

    Is this why gold is now moving to top tier status and banks purchasing it?

     

    http://bit.ly/N5bLlN
    17 Aug 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    Physical gold demanded over paper ponzi gold. I think we have been saying this all along.

     

    http://bit.ly/NusxKO
    17 Aug 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2169) | Send Message
     
    The Yen has been on a steady decline, vs the dollar, for over a week. So steady that it looks orchestrated. Could the BOJ have finally gotten serious about pushing down the Yen?

     

    Given the net withdrawal of money from pensions and savings accounts by aging Japanese, there is no other source of "real" money left to feed the government money eater. So Japan chooses inflation, as all modern pols do. It's the invisible tax, ya know.
    17 Aug 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    We were discussing this on the QC recently...

     

    I recall a hint from the BOJ that they would be supporting the yen during this period, so yes, I would expect that is now happening.

     

    China's slight easing of the bank reserves (and the potential impact on the yuan) may be a background story.

     

    Japan increasingly HAS to support a weak yen/dollar exchange rate (anything more than 85:1 is pretty "strong" in their view). Exchange rates in the 7x:1 range are lethal to many of their industrial exporters.

     

    This is the hidden card which Germany has yet to play, ie, that a cheaper Euro will also make their export driven economy sing, and will be very needed in the event of a pervasive recession in their capitive EZ/EU market to keep their factories humming.

     

    Should China find the competition too hot from Germany or Japan, they are also likely to weaken the yuan, and for the same reasons, though it will, indeed, bump up prices on imports. I expect China to strive to avoid these traps, but the limited freedom of motion of Japan and Germany almost guarantees more money printing, and lots of it.
    17 Aug 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2169) | Send Message
     
    From WSJ online, 17 Aug.

     

    "Moody's plans to review its debt ratings of California cities over the next few weeks and said it believes the risk of default on municipal bonds in the state is rising."

     

    I wonder where Moody got such a strange idea? Do they read old newspapers? Watch television news reruns?

     

    Sigh
    17 Aug 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4160) | Send Message
     
    Dr. Sam Beckett just leapt into their office.
    18 Aug 2012, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    I saw the new Dinesh D'Sousa movie "2016" today. It's definitely worth seeing. There were plenty of gray headed people there. In fact, I don't think I saw anyone under 50.
    17 Aug 2012, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    I've not seen it yet, but its on my list. I hope it covers some new ground I'm not already familiar with...

     

    As for the age of the crowd...

     

    OG, you DO live in Florida, after all.
    17 Aug 2012, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    I am hoping to get to see it soon. Glad you felt it was worth seeing. Your the first person that I have heard from about the movie.

     

    Thanks OG.
    17 Aug 2012, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    TB,I hope that the reason is I'm surrounded by old people, and that young people will be interested.
    17 Aug 2012, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    My cynical demon that squats upon my left shoulder says: If any youngsters show up, it will be because they thought it was titled "2012" and was about the end of the world.
    17 Aug 2012, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    Is China failing.

     

    http://fxn.ws/S31jdC
    17 Aug 2012, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2169) | Send Message
     
    guns: I wish the article had a bit more meat to it. But I agree with the author that China can't keep growing at over 8% a year for ever with EZ in recession and US productivity increasing while salaries decrease.

     

    Chinese 'crats have become very good at fudging the economic numbers, apparently having learned from US and EZ banks and governments :-) But the loans to build all the unused buildings are beginning to come due. My guess is that the return on investment is terrible and the loan payments will be missed. The banks can't repo the properties and still pretend those buildings are worth the loan value. Then again, the "banks" in China are NOT what we in the West think of as banks.

     

    Eventually China will need to reduce their raw industrial materials imports and that will show up in the real trade statistics. Then we will know. The new Chi-com leaders are in for an interesting few years.
    17 Aug 2012, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    ATP files for bankruptcy
    http://bloom.bg/MCV5Ay
    17 Aug 2012, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Sad. I got out of that one whole, but not ahead, back when. We were tracking it for quite a while on the early QC's.
    17 Aug 2012, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4160) | Send Message
     
    wow... i'll think of not investing in that one the next time i think of a big gainer i didn't invest in
    18 Aug 2012, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    Investors can thank Obama and Salazar for that one.
    18 Aug 2012, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2430) | Send Message
     
    How about BP?

     

    or their management team.

     

    Don't they get a little of the "credit?"

     

    They kept rolling the dice and got burned.

     

    http://onforb.es/RAdotk
    21 Aug 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    AAPL is shrinking labor at their retail stores!!!
    http://read.bi/Q9U3I4
    18 Aug 2012, 02:10 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    Don't read anything into AAPL and that story...they just reversed it and apologized yesterday.
    AAPL has a new retail guy...the one who built the Apple stores into such a huge success is now the CEO of JCPenny....IMO, the new MBA (who is still wet behind the ears) was gonna make a name for himself and save $$$ by reducing labor....Everyone knows that iPhone sales were down because of waiting for the new iPhone 5.
    The problem with the MBA's are all they know to do is cut costs, and labor is always #1. The young generation for the most part really does not know how to build a business or make money. If they come up with a new idea, the CEO usually won't let them mess with the business model (think MSFT and their bureaucracy)
    Problem was, it was right in front of the biggest product launch since the iPad.
    They have called everyone back....apologized to the employees and public. Admitted a mistake.
    18 Aug 2012, 05:20 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    Traders looking for a quick move in Silver..options volume surged
    http://bit.ly/MDt8bZ
    18 Aug 2012, 05:12 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    I bought some CDE back at 16, wish I had bought a lot more.
    18 Aug 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    Didn't see much attention to this aberration anywhere. Makes one go eithe "hmmmm ..." or "I knew I couldn't trust those seaky, under-handed, slimy, ... SOBs!".

     

    "with the July seasonal adjustment factor routinely subtracting a substantial amount from the NSA number, averaging at -$5.2 billion, in 2012, for the first time this decade, the seasonal adjustment not only did not subtract, but in fact added "value" to the NSA number, resulting in a seasonally adjusted number that was $1.9 billion higher than the NSA number at $403.9 billion".

     

    Gory details at ZH, http://bit.ly/SARzEU and also picked up on Bloomberg radio program.

     

    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: I suggest a couple of the articles linked there under "Similar Articles You Might Enjoy:" are also woth reading - I'm off to red the MS defense of seasonal adjustment agains the "crazy" ZH article. Hm, whom to believe, ... or is it "who".
    18 Aug 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    Peter Schiff had a lot to say yesterday. It's on everything from politics, to the bond market, to releasing strategic reserves, to Soros buying gold, to... well, here it is!
    http://bit.ly/pY3R8e
    18 Aug 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    He agrees that Paul Ryan is not the savior the Republicrats think he is.

     

    Great video, thanks OG.
    21 Aug 2012, 04:49 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Hi DG,
    I think Ryan was picked to get the Tea Party vote, not because he is the smartest guy in the room with answers. Anybody that smart would be making money in the private sector and able to sleep well at night.
    21 Aug 2012, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    " He agrees that Paul Ryan is not the savior the Republicrats think he is. "

     

    :-) DG, I suggest there are "saviors" and then there are "saviors."

     

    If one is thinking the country needs saving from another term of Obama, Ryan is probably good for the trick.

     

    If one is thinking the country needs saving from accelerating entitlement spending, Ryan is certainly up to the task of helping accomplish that feat.

     

    If one thinks the path to salvation lies in taking a meat cleaver to government spending to accomplish immediate elimination of deficit spending then Ryan is not a prospective "savior". IMO, anyone who seeks such a policy is severely misguided.

     

    I strongly support elimination of deficit spending over a short horizon and reduction in public debt over the long term. It is doable with a more rapidly expanding private sector and studied, well telegraphed elimination of federal programs. A more rapidly expanding private sector can be encouraged (facilitated) by reducing the range of risks confronting businesses and improving small business access to capital. But application of an IED/meat cleaver approach would with absolute certainty increase unemployment and heighten uncertainty in the macroeconomy.

     

    FWIW
    21 Aug 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    No way he is for the tea party vote. I am in the tea party. I see right through him and have been teaching my tea party folks about this snake in the grass. 28 more years of deficit spending!!! Thats not even close to tea partyish.

     

    3 Tea party principles

     

    Fiscal responsibility
    Limited Govt
    Free Markets

     

    Paul Ryan fails, fails, fails on the very first two and anyone who voted for TARP and bailed out the banks fails on number 3 in my book leaving NOTHING about Mr. Paul Ryan remotely tea party in thought, word or deed.
    21 Aug 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    A very large meat cleaver is what is needed with spending. Yes it would lead to some unemployment but with serious tax reform to accompany it and a "real" commitment to become energy independant in 10 years (preferable 8) we would see results very quickly and jobs would be popping up every where.
    21 Aug 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1930) | Send Message
     
    28 years was under current baselines. I watched Peter Schiff video but he was wrong about that. The truth is they can not forecast how long it would take to balance the budget becasue their are so many gears turning in different directions. A policy maker has to just get i there and start turning the gears in the "right" direction and a clearer picture will begin to emerge. Under Clinton they balanced the budget, did they take a meat clever to the government under Clinton? no and taxes were 4% higher (I know it is a different economy now, without the tech bubble)

     

    It can be done and it will be done but it won't be done overnight. He is already viewed as this drastic budget cutting hawk who is going to throw granny off the cliff, if his rhetoric or his budget were anymore draconian there would not be a snowball's chance in hell they would get elected by independents, we thereby give the budget over to O who will never balance it and just dig us deeper into the ditch.

     

    Under Romney-Ryan we start to turn the gears to move in the right direction.
    21 Aug 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    "A very large meat cleaver is what is needed with spending. Yes it would lead to some unemployment but with serious tax reform to accompany it and a "real" commitment to become energy independant in 10 years (preferable 8) we would see results very quickly and jobs would be popping up every where."

     

    DG, large spending cuts over a number of years is a desirable objective. Application of a "large meat cleaver" is an abrupt approach, though, which leaves zero time for acquisition of new skills by displaced workers or for them and others to relocate to new employment centers. Abrupt loss of pay checks large numbers by government workers and contractor employees would precipitate increased bankruptcy filings, mortgage and other loan foreclosures and availability of capital to small business would become more scarce and costly. A more measured, less "revolutionary" reorganization and shrinkage of government would be far more constructive, less costly, consistent with fiscal responsibility, fully capable of restoring greater reliance on free markets together with rule of law, and strengthening of checks and balances on government power and officials.

     

    21 Aug 2012, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    First Ryan budget is nearly identical to BOs. It's not a slashing budget but more like a wimpy skining like a skinned knee. See the link here:

     

    http://fxn.ws/Q2jMC4

     

    As far as not knowing if the plan will have 28 more years of deficit spending the CBO has scored his budget. That is the all we can ask for and they came up with the 28 years. I believe it will be worse because politicians...well....... a bit. It is in this next link.

     

    http://bit.ly/NGhz1t

     

    Without serious delveraging (meat cleaver) We are in deep doo doo. Its just that simple. Link below.

     

    http://bit.ly/NAMX53

     

    So lets eliminate the Energy dept (they have done nothing), education department (back to states) , HUD depart (back to states), commerce dept (corporate welfare), IRS with tax reform and finally reduce the EPA since we have much cleaner water and air so they do not need as many folks now to keep up. It would not happen over night so maybe the meat cleaver would not be used so violently.....but I would love to!!

     

    We are16 trillion from just getting back to broke. Its going to take a lot of effort. More than what Ryan appears to be up to. JMHO
    21 Aug 2012, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    Clinton took a meat cleaver to the military, NSA and other security/defense industrys. Some say that is why we did not know about 9/11. We had lost so many feet on the ground in the intellegence industrys but the reality is we may never know.

     

    A meat cleaver was used, I was on active duty then and saw it first hand. No one cared about the unemployment created by this ballance the budget program. Add in the numerous base closures and the unemployment numbers go up more. Clinton loved the balanced budget numbers so much he cleavered an additional 15% more troops than the original planed drawdown called for.
    21 Aug 2012, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    " First Ryan budget is nearly identical to BOs."

     

    Hogwash!

     

    " It's not a slashing budget but more like a wimpy skining like a skinned knee. See the link here:

     

    http://fxn.ws/Q2jMC4"

     

    I have certainly never suggested Ryan's budget proposal was "a slashing budget." Neither has anyone I know that is not a democrat or liberal. Ryan himself has plainly stated the plan's objective was to lower the rate of increase in entitlement spending in future years, NOT immediate cuts in those programs.

     

    "As far as not knowing if the plan will have 28 more years of deficit spending the CBO has scored his budget. That is the all we can ask for and they came up with the 28 years. I believe it will be worse because politicians...well....... a bit. It is in this next link."

     

    Fact about CBO budget scoring exercises. They rest on assumptions specified by the Congress as well as content of the proposal(s). The Ryan budget proposal defers itemization of tax shelters (deductions, exclusions from taxable income, etc.) the plan anticipates will be eliminated. This is stated, but ignored by the likes of CBO (which has no detail to work with) and David Stockman (who I regard as a twit on this matter).

     

    "Without serious delveraging (meat cleaver) We are in deep doo doo. Its just that simple. "

     

    We agree on need to deleverage government balance sheets, but disagree on means and rate of speed in doing so. Immediate, substantial reduction in government expenditures would qualify as falling on one's fiscal responsibility sword by raising unemployment, increasing unemployment comp outlays, reducing tax collections, and dampening aggregate demand further by prompting postponement of private sector investment decisions by 1) adding to market uncertainties and 2) raising cost of capital short-term.

     

    "So lets eliminate the Energy dept (they have done nothing), education department (back to states) , HUD depart (back to states), commerce dept (corporate welfare)"

     

    Pretty good shopping list with a few tweaks such as providing for continuing collection and dissemination of energy production and consumption data to help support markets.

     

    "We are16 trillion from just getting back to broke. Its going to take a lot of effort. More than what Ryan appears to be up to."

     

    Neither Ryan nor anyone else who has campaigned for President, Vice President is "up to" eliminating $16 trillion public debt in four years without precipitating civil war. Think in terms of 8 - 12 years.
    21 Aug 2012, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    "Clinton took a meat cleaver to the military, NSA and other security/defense industrys."

     

    Yes he did, but did so in a significantly different economic environment and with a markedly different outlook regarding military threats from abroad. Today, we have a rapidly expanding Chinese military and a somewhat resurgent Russia under control of a stridently anti-American, aggressive Putin plus hostile Iran and muslim terrorists.

     

    Clinton and the Democrats claimed excessive "peace dividend" from break up of the Soviet Union and were lucky to have a rapidly growing IT sector to help offset displaced military personnel and job losses in defense industries.
    21 Aug 2012, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    Re: "Markedly different outlook regarding military threats abroad"- Yes you are right regarding China and Russia. However, regarding Middle East:
    The Clinton administration discussed Bin Laden every day. We had plenty of threats, only we the people didn't know it until the first, unsuccessful attack on the World Trade Center in 1993, attributed to Iraq.
    Despite the loss of lives. the media projected the attackers to be bumblers and fools rather than a festering diabolical threat.
    22 Aug 2012, 04:26 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    "Yes you are right regarding China and Russia. However, regarding Middle East: The Clinton administration discussed Bin Laden every day."

     

    :-) Clinton did a bit more than "talk" about bin Laden. He tried to take him out with a cruise missile in 1998. But, I agree that he was not really perceived as a military threat until the latter part of Clinton's 2nd term.

     

    Beyond China, Russia and al Qaeda, today we also have an Iran equipped with intermediate range ballistic missiles and rising concerns about nuclear armaments and a North Korea with demonstrated nuclear weapon capability.
    22 Aug 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    I think the 8-12 year time line is correct. That is a meat cleaver in my book, compared to 28 years. I also do not believe it will be 28 years because it will collapse prior to that so it might as well be 100 years. Collapse from outright printing or lack of folks loaning the "good ole USA" another dime as we blaze through 24 trillion in debt. EZ has no money, Japan has no money, China is buying gold and soon will have less money so there is no one to loan us money any way.

     

    We have gotten ZERO efforts from either party in the last 30 years and its time to walk the walk not talk the talk. 8-12 years I could live with. This budget wont get there.

     

    I think we are going to see the Romney/Ryan team talk the talk and this budget is the hint of it being that way. We will see the debt ceiling raised, deficits increase, banks continue to be bailed out, and the list of "Demician" crimes the "Republicrats screamed about will continue.

     

    Hide and watch. It's going to be ugly or uglier no matter who wins.
    22 Aug 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    I think the financial threat to this country is far more significant and immediate than China or Russia or Al Queda and if we fail to correct this financial problem soon the collapse will lead to us not having the financial resourses to provide even the most basic advancements in defense and we will fall so far behind we face the real possibliity of eventually becoming.....a cakewalk.

     

    Something that was not clear in my first link. There is no difference in Obamas budget and Ryans budget should have said "no difference in EFFECT."

     

    Both spend like hell and lead us down the road to ruin.
    22 Aug 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    "I think we are going to see the Romney/Ryan team talk the talk and this budget is the hint of it being that way. We will see the debt ceiling raised, deficits increase, banks continue to be bailed out, and the list of "Demician" crimes the "Republicrats screamed about will continue."

     

    :-) We have a difference of opinion on "deficits increase" and possibly on "banks continue to be bailed out". Risks of both can be reduced by electing new, fiscally conservative people to Congress.

     

    :-) I agree that it's going to be ugly no matter who wins.
    22 Aug 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    D-inv & DG ... now you are seeing things like I have been talking.

     

    It's gonna be ugly no matter who wins. Romney/Ryan budgets won't be any better either. Congress is definitely the key, but none of the candidates are much better.
    Both parties holding firm to policies that just don't work. It is purely a power play to see who wins.

     

    There have been countless political posts here. I notice the change in you guys and just read the polls on "Attacks have hurt Romney's Rep." The polls show the change in opinions too. Slight, but it shows the voters don't really like either one. And I might add, neither do we.
    22 Aug 2012, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4160) | Send Message
     
    nodding... trying to stay off of politics... but this may amuse...

     

    I got a call today from someone who wanted to ask me "4 quick questions" about the presidential election...

     

    I told the person I wouldn't be voting for either of the major party candidates

     

    he responded, "okay thank you, that concludes our survey"

     

    I managed to shout "Gary Johnson 2012" before he hung up....

     

    (always nice to know that if you don't like one of two choices on offer, you don't matter)
    22 Aug 2012, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    "I managed to shout "Gary Johnson 2012" before he hung up...."

     

    :-) My response to survey calls is 1) decline to take any call for which caller ID is blocked and 2) if I answer a call and it is a survey I simply teller the caller I do not participate in telephone surveys.

     

    :-) It is worth noting that "no matter who wins" includes ALL candidates, official candidates listed on ballots and potential write-ins.
    22 Aug 2012, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    It wasn't me!!! My last phone banking was last night and we had one question.

     

    "If elections were held today would you vote for Romney or Obama."

     

    I felt ill the entire evening thinking what idiotic choices and the folks answering the poll were so excited about their pathetic choices.

     

    We are so far down the rabbit hole it is ridiculous. And folks do not see it. The sheeple are flocking to these losers. This economy will tank as a result of the failings of our leadership. Politics can not be ignored if your interested in the economy and unfortunately I see ugly and uglier as the outcomes.
    23 Aug 2012, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    "I think the financial threat to this country is far more significant and immediate than China or Russia or Al Queda"

     

    I agree that financial threat is clear and present, but disagree that it is more immediate than the economic and military threats posed by foreign military powers and terrorists.

     

    "There is no difference in Obamas budget and Ryans budget should have said 'no difference in EFFECT.' "

     

    I find your perception of the respective budgets rather incredible and ABSOLUTELY disagree.
    23 Aug 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    Obviously I can not open your eyes but maybe 8 years of Romney/Ryan will.
    23 Aug 2012, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    Might want to watch the IPO on Trulia (TRLA) monday. They raised the price to $16-18. It might be ok. Comparable to Zillow.
    18 Aug 2012, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    Good follow-up to Trulia...good comments on it too.
    http://buswk.co/NSHWzF
    19 Aug 2012, 04:54 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    I read an article that our carbon footprint is shrinking back to levels last seen in the 1990s just because nat gas is so cheap most electric plants are using it rather than coal. (I'll skip the politics part of all this!)
    19 Aug 2012, 12:54 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    "I read an article that our carbon footprint is shrinking back to levels last seen in the 1990s just because nat gas is so cheap most electric plants are using it rather than coal. (I'll skip the politics part of all this!)"

     

    We may have read the same article or at least part of the same article. I stopped reading because of perception that it was deliberately spinning the increased NG use in power generation as all due to lower NG prices. The reality is that multiple coal fired plants have shut down because of more stringent EPA regs and/or heightened political pressure. Part of that political pressure has taken the form of State mandates to deliver a rising share of power from erratic/variable availability renewable power sources that has required PUs to introduce more load following power generation capacity and rely less on largely invariant base load power sources like coal-fired plants.

     

    That is, I read the article as largely political spin.
    19 Aug 2012, 01:14 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    You filled in the political part!
    Natural gas is cleaner than coal. Coal companies are being crushed by government. Why wouldn't cleaner coal initiatives be very successful? Coal is much cleaner than it was in the 1990's.
    No question in my mind that we could be totally energy efficient, that the amount of coal we have is a rich resource we should exploit.
    Of course, the government is after fracking, too. They are doing everything in their power to control every aspect of energy production and delivery.
    http://bit.ly/PGNH8x
    19 Aug 2012, 02:42 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    I don't see anything political in it: Weather is the big factor, the unusually warm winter we had...as it points out 6 months from now it will go back up due to the hot summer. The shift to NG started 10 years ago,,,who was in office then? Sure it accelerated the last 4 due to NG prices & emission regs.

     

    However, one of the other factors behind the drop in emissions — the unusual weather — may mean this trend won't continue.
    Six months from now, when all the energy data from this past summer is available, it's likely this summer saw higher carbon dioxide emissions than the past couple of summers, Simon said. The reason, the power needed to keep much of the nation cool during a summer that featured the warmest month on record — July —for the continental United States.

     

    The shift away from coal toward natural gas began about a decade ago, as electricity producers became more wary of establishing new coal plants. In the last three years, the shift away from coal accelerated rapidly due to regulations to reduce pollution as well as extremely low prices for natural gas, Simon said.

     

    The slowed economy plus a move toward more fuel-efficient vehicles drove a reduced demand for gasoline, which in turn, reduced emissions, he told LiveScience.
    Carbon dioxide emitted by the burning of fossil fuels, including coal, oil and natural gas, accounts for nearly 60 percent of humans' greenhouse gas emissions, according to the 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
    Nearly all of the excess carbon dioxide emitted in the United States comes from energy-related uses, such as power plants, cars and airplanes, and oil-heated homes. Carbon dioxide is the primary greenhouse gas.
    19 Aug 2012, 05:27 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    "The reason, the power needed to keep much of the nation cool during a summer that featured the warmest month on record — July —for the continental United States."

     

    Well, "warmest month on record" according to governmentally massaged raw temperature data, but the raw data show a different story according to some. (http://tinyurl.com/btw...)

     

    "Carbon dioxide emitted by the burning of fossil fuels, including coal, oil and natural gas, accounts for nearly 60 percent of humans' greenhouse gas emissions, according to the 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change."

     

    The IPCC's AR4 is a very flawed product shown to rely on selective inputs, including several since demonstrated as quite wrong. Absolute indisputable fact is that the carbon cycle is NOT fully understood. Multiple studies point to considerably less influence of atmospheric CO2 on global temperatures than postulated in IPCC modeling.

     

    IMO, the biggest issues with coal use in this country over the most recent 20 years or so have virtually nothing to do with CO2 emissions and lots to do with coal ash disposal and mercury.vaporization/d...

     

    IMO, stimulation of oceanic "dead zones" offshore river mouths around the globe through micro-organism nutrient runoffs is a bigger problem than CO2 emissions.
    19 Aug 2012, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2070) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv,
    I am on vacation, but couldn't let this reply wait. Appreciate very much your educating us all on some coal factoids that are often overlooked. I know I will be providing a link to your comment in the future along with the recently published scientific studies which cast doubt on the long accepted assumption that nat gas is cleaner than coal.

     

    Many thanks,
    mj
    19 Aug 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    Drought causing water shortage, Electricity generation using 40-50% of water for steam.
    I have never invested in any water stocks, but never thought about how much water was used/lost in electricity generation.

     

    http://bloom.bg/OqaRgB
    19 Aug 2012, 04:54 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/oOTRzU

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    I had grossly underestimated the amount of water lost thru steam in power generation. It is a new dimension to consider re: water shortages.
    But the data in the article you posted above can not include all the water that is required to make a crop of soybeans or corn, as 90% of that is rain water that would soak into the soil and evaporate. Only a very small portion of crops are from total irrigation.
    19 Aug 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    LT: I'm *guessing* that regardless of water source, it's counted as "used" because of the possibility that it could be "captured" (either naturally in, lakes, streams, underground aquifers, ... or in man-made vaults) and made available for other uses.

     

    For folks like myself, on well-water, this aquifer capture is important. If I lived in the middle of soy bean fields and the plants captured the rain water, grew and released the water back into the atmosphere through evaporation, my aquifer might be depleted enough (through lack of *sufficient* replenishment, especially in semi-drought or more severe conditions) to require drilling a deeper well or abandoning the property or securing another source.

     

    I don't live in the middle of such a field and there have been sequential years a few times in the past three decades where the level did drop and the symptoms were exhibited in lower water pressure (a function of vertical distance from the surface of the water to the pump since I have a shallow-well above-ground pump).

     

    Another symptom was having to more frequently change the filters as more silt was ingested into the system.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2012, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    Positive spin on GM's capital raise...a few other pertinent numbers too

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    19 Aug 2012, 05:10 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    Is Nokia the next Sprint ?
    disclosure: I am long both

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    19 Aug 2012, 05:41 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4160) | Send Message
     
    Graphene, & Graphene in Sri Lanka. Someone spoke about it here, or in the Axion Concentrator. Please send me a message if you did.

     

    I'm going to Sri Lanka for two weeks at the end of October to try to figure out investing there.
    19 Aug 2012, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4597) | Send Message
     
    >Jon Springer ... Graphene in Sri Lanka would be very surprising. Sri Lanka mines graphite that might be raw material for graphene someday but as I remember the grade is not a good candidate. Anyway here is a general info link

     

    http://bit.ly/NcM2Sv
    19 Aug 2012, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4160) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the correction and the data DRich
    19 Aug 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    More evidence that changing demographics are skewing the numbers and they won't return to the norm for the forseeable future.
    Combined with the fact that manufacturing is increasingly going to robots...the next with eyes to replace workers.
    Learning how to interpret these new numbers and adjust to the change is going to determine our investment success beginning now and in the future. I stand firm that the numbers and solutions that have worked & been known in the past will not be the same.

     

    5:40 AM A major reason for the poor economic growth over the last decade, says David Leonhardt in the NYT, is demography: the share of Americans of working age grew to 53% in 2001 from 52% in 1997. That compares with an 8 percentage increase between 1967 and 1997. With baby boomers retiring, expect that share to fall. 4 Comments [U.S. Economy]

     

    8:19 AM Some jobs remain beyond the reach of automation, but the list is growing shorter. "The pace and scale of this encroachment into human skills is relatively recent and has profound implications," says MIT's Andrew McAfee. Next: Robots with "eyes" (using technology found in Microsoft's Kinect) that can pick up boxes and drop them on a conveyer belt. Think FedEx and UPS. Comment!
    19 Aug 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    "can pick up boxes and drop them on a conveyer belt".

     

    They haven't neared parity with humans and pose no threat at all until ...
    "can pick up boxes and drop them on a foot" and collect from a workplace injury.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2169) | Send Message
     
    I'll take a crack at that, LT.

     

    The robo-vision image array used in the camera is now so cheap that the box and lenses cost more. Laser scanners can determine distances of objects easily. The remaining problems are the software algorithms to "do something" with the data. They take too much time to run as presently designed ( a few years ago), but the processing hardware is getting more sophisticated and faster each year.

     

    My guess is the cost of the grippers and "muscles" will soon be the limiting factor. I believe that 100psi range compressed air driven bellows and piston/cylinder actuators will eventually be the cheap solution. I admit I don't have the latest info. Any movement over the floor will be done with motor driven wheels, much like the newer versions of the scooter/power chair.

     

    But warehouse human worker replacement is close. Every time the usGov increases the cost of labor with another mandate the tradeoff moves closer to the robots. Indoor jobs in air conditioned areas on flat concrete floors will be the first to go all robot. It might take one technician to maintain 10-20 of them. The math is there.

     

    A robot might even be able to climb a rack to get that part 20 feet up. A "misstep and fall" results in scraping the 'bot for spare parts. No liability and workman's comp. insurance. Little lost time. No blood and bureaucrats filling out forms. No doctor. No hospital. Nobody.

     

    The only human type jobs will be the service tech that configures the robots and does simple local fixes. Replacing cheaper "wear parts" instead of using expensive parts designed for 10k hours of service could well be the lowest cost solution. Built in sensors will report when movements become too sloppy. You can't take a 50 year old human laborer and change out their aching knees, wrists and elbows.
    I wish we could!

     

    Outdoors in the sun, rain, wind, mud and cold will remain human territory for a while longer. But not forever.

     

    It's the jobs that require thinking and rapid reaction that are safe the longest. But again, not forever. An electronic human equivalent brain the size of a grapefruit is not that far away. Undereducated high school grads should be nervous. Trade schools could be the new "gotta have" education.
    21 Aug 2012, 01:49 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    Good report SH, The last line on Trade schools (vocational schools) is so in touch with what I have said for 30 years.

     

    College is not for everyone. Vocational schools have always had a place but got screwed the last 40 years. Colleges are doing Robotics classes now, they will also try to figure a way to control trades too. College got all the education money, and look at where we are, $1T in student debt and they can't find a job. I hate to say it, but many of them wouldn't in boom times.
    21 Aug 2012, 04:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    SHB: You would enjoy a visti to the Miller Brewing warehouse in Eden NC. Robots everywhere doing almost all "staging" of skids of beer, placed at a loading area just inside the loading docks.

     

    Humans take the skids the last 15 feet or so into the truck.

     

    When two robots hit an intersection at the same time, they both pause and "think" and then one continues on and the other starts moving again after the intersection is cleared.

     

    Fun to watch.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Aug 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9908) | Send Message
     
    HTL: And Roadway. And Amazon. And car manufaturers, pill makers, the USPS.

     

    Heck, if only a robot could cook/BBQ up dinner like I can. Robots will never replace chefs! Or lifeguards, or EMTs, flautists, athletes, blog originators, columnists, editors, shamans, priests, artists, novelists, architects, fish scalers and pot gowers. Although TV personalities could be replaced, like Max Headroom did! Who the heck would ever read a robot critique of a vacation destination, or a restaurant?

     

    I would love to see some robot go after the grease ant invasion going on in my home right now. 1000s of these little buggers, all going after that late night French Toast I made, a pan of maple syrup left out on the counter overnight, bacon grease left in the sauce pan, butter left opened...it was wild this morning wiping out scads of living creatures, who by the way, are one of the best disinfectant species on the planet.

     

    Not your fabulous maple syrup, guns! They didn't get that.
    22 Aug 2012, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    Whew!!! I was starting to go into panic mode thinking about ants hauling off that syrup. Was thinking I might need to head up your way to help out in the extermination and recovery efforts. LOL
    23 Aug 2012, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5993) | Send Message
     
    Something beyond investing. Video of beach goers rescuing 30 Beached Dolphins
    From: The Big Picture
    http://tinyurl.com/8uf...
    19 Aug 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17876) | Send Message
     
    FPA: warmed my hear to see that.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5993) | Send Message
     
    Me too :)
    19 Aug 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    FPA,
    Thanks for that link.
    19 Aug 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (4850) | Send Message
     
    Loved it! An my daughter is going to love it, too!
    19 Aug 2012, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    Banks buy more treasuries as workers save 4.4% of income & deposits keep flowing in at record levels.
    http://bloom.bg/Nev2Lw
    20 Aug 2012, 04:29 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4160) | Send Message
     
    Astute housing market observer Mark Hanson makes some brief but good points suggesting 2013 will be another bad year for the housing market. He suggests 2012 should be compared to 2010 as in both years, housing was under the influence of stimulus; while 2013 will be closer to 2011... and a "triple dip" in the housing market. http://bit.ly/P9wLnd
    20 Aug 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    Buffett Joins Team Whitney in muni failure fears and begins cancelling municipal insurance policies.

     

    "In what is worse news for the bullish muni community, the fact that Buffett closed the position at substantial losses indicates that the once deified investor is willing to swallow his pride, and despite his massive balance sheet, refuses to wait out the expiration of the insurance, implying he sees not only major shockwaves ahead, but turbulence that is imminent."

     

    http://bit.ly/NdPeDa
    21 Aug 2012, 04:47 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    "Now, between high correlations and supercomputers, most daily stock trading has little-to-no linkage to fundamental analysis."

     

    I think we have been on to this for some time. Its nice to see that others are aware of this too.

     

    http://bit.ly/NDA9q3
    21 Aug 2012, 05:04 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    High speed rails to connect Agenda 21 cities.

     

    If you are not aware of Agenda 21 google it. This is not going away yet and could effect you or your family in a very detrimental way.

     

    More nanny state intervention. We know whats best for you, trust us. LOL (timid and fearful laugh)

     

    http://bit.ly/RyzgVL
    21 Aug 2012, 05:09 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    DNA hard drives can store the entire congressional library in a single molecule.

     

    http://bit.ly/PaAqkF
    21 Aug 2012, 05:13 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    A free people ought not only to be armed and disciplined, but they should have sufficient arms and ammunition to maintain a status of independence from any who might attempt to abuse them, which would include their own government. — George Washington

     

    http://bit.ly/PA2n5H

     

    Aparently he has been locked up for over 30 days.

     

    http://bit.ly/Nhbx58
    21 Aug 2012, 05:40 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8323) | Send Message
     
    ZH covering this too.

     

    http://bit.ly/PaNQwX
    21 Aug 2012, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    below is a trend that I do not like, increasing dividends or large one time payouts funded by debt. This is detrimental in the long run because of the damage to a balance sheet. Draining the cash, increasing debt. They are all doing it to a point. All to save shareholders taxes on dividends.. It is something to watch going forward a few years. It is a double negative.

     

    5:50 AM H&E Equipment Services (HEES) declared special dividend of $7.00/share. For shareholders of record Sep 05. Payable Sep 19. Ex-div date Sep 20. The dividend will be funded from the proceeds of the $530M debt offering. (PR) Comment! [Dividends]
    21 Aug 2012, 06:03 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5001) | Send Message
     
    I was out all day yesterday during mkt. hours. Been catching up this morning.
    GS analyst telling clients to get out of stocks before the fiscal cliff
    WFC analyst says mkt. going to S&P 1500, things getting much better.

     

    Well, what if both are right ?

     

    A few months ago, we all thought a big sell off was coming this summer. It didn't happen. That's why this has been the "most hated rally". Everyone was positioned for a repeat of last summer that didn't happen, thus missing the rally AND the opportunity to buy stocks cheap. Frustrating for most.

     

    How are they both right, what if...we rallied this summer. Then in 2013 (no matter who wins) we know there are going to be major changes in the deficit and maybe other stimulus. So skipping the reasons in detail because they could change...what if the big spring rally does not come...and we sell big time after hitting the 1500 mark to 1250? Will that hold? Maybe not. The next 4 years could be challenging or flat at best ?
    21 Aug 2012, 06:10 AM Reply Like