Ramsay Schrum's  Instablog

Ramsay Schrum
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VP Sales and International Operations Apparel and Garment Manufacturing Executive Education course at Harvard Business School 2010 ZLCS, TLAB, SIMG, CIM, BPAX, ASTX TRGT trading below cash right now.... nice buy opp here $4.30
  • Fear Based Bear Market Creates one of the Best Buying Oportunities since late 2008 2 comments
    Sep 29, 2011 1:20 PM | about stocks: EPRS, MDT, SNY, NVS

    The recent market conditions have produced volatility and fear based selling which brings up some of the best buying opportunities since late 2008.

    One of my old friends stated
    "Some of the biggest profits can be made in a fear based bear market, when the core fundamentals of a company have not changed the PPS can be a steal" 

    Zalicus presents one of the best buying opportunities that I have seen in a while. With the most recent conference at JMP it confirmed my thoughts.  Dr. Corrigan through a detailed Q & A at the end of his presentation was able to point out some lingering questions that had investors on the sideline. 

    First here are some basics about the company; 56 million in cash as of June 30th with an additional 8.5 million in secured credit. Zalicus has full funding of operations through 2014 which will allow Zalicus to hit its main data points so that significant funding, milestones and drug partnerships will be able to materialize.
    A recent meeting with Covidien and Zalicus has produced the the upcoming filing to the FDA for a 32MG Exalgo pill. This is huge for the overall sales volume. Now Zalicus will have a once a day pain pill that will be on par with some of its competitors and will boost overall sales and profits exponentially. 

    Z160 which is a Non-Opioid pain drug that would revolutionize the multi billion dollar pain industry if approved. (No need to tell you what the pps would do if this was sent to market.)

    Dr. Corrigan stated, 
    "Z160 testing has been effective in every pain model that we have tried it in"

    Zalicus will be commencing a Phase I trial in the fall of this year, already expecting great results Zalicus will initiate a Phase IIa trial scheduled for June of 2012.

    Z944 a Novel T Type Calcium channel blocker has already demonstrated efficacy in preclinical inflammatory pain modules. They will be advancing Z944 through toxicology studies with the commencement of Phase I in the fall of this year.

    Synavive, wholly owned by Zalicus is having great success through its trials in Phase IIa. Data is expected mid year in 2012 with very high expectations from the board. As said in the presentation big pharmas are lining up for the data from this trail. I believe a bidding war would ensue which will not only improve Zalicus's market cap but would almost eliminate the cash burn expenses from ongoing trials to market for Synavive.  Phase
    III and FDA approval milestones in the 10's of millions, as well as tiered ongoing royalties from sales.

    Zalicus has a platform collaboration agreement with Novartis in Oncology with their CHTS program. There was an initial payment of 4 million dollars as well as a recent extension for another 1 million dollars from the success of the program in screening the Novartis Oncology platform..

    You can expect multiple new partnerships with the Combination High Throughput Screening program which are already in the works. Dr. Corrigan could not comment on specific names which drag me to think they are near to closing new deals in the next few months.

    The one thing I wish I could pressure on Zalicus and Sanofi (SNY) is the announcement of Phase
    III with Prednisporin. I believe Sanofi is sitting on the data for one of many big pharma reasons. It is clear that the data was positive and that they will move Prednisporin forward into phase III. Prednisporin (FOV1101) has been outlined multiple times in Sanofi's R&D reports with the most recent outline on the 6th of September stating the launch of Prednisporin right at the top of the list for 2015. Phase III would bring 3 million in milestone payments to ZLCS with an additional 39 Million for launch of product to market.

    With JMP's new price target at $5.00 per share excluding any calculations for Exalgo or its royalty stream that makes me come to the conclusion that our pipeline is extremely valuable. The potential with Synavive and its partnership, our new pain molecules as well as Prednisporin with Sanofi makes me believe that there is a HUGE upside potential from our current

    I am taking full advantage of this market and have accumulated a very large position in ZLCS with my sell target in the next 10 months above $3.50.

    I believe there will be a huge price reversal in the next 4 months of over 100%. From the unique opportunity presented by this bear market, Zalicus's core fundamentals have not changed and their pipeline is poised to burst with the data rich months ahead.

    I highly recommend listing to Dr Corrigan’s last presentation at JMP Securities Conference if you would like a detailed overview by the CEO of Zalicus.


    Disclosure: I am long ZLCS.
    Stocks: EPRS, MDT, SNY, NVS
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Comments (2)
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  • stockalert46
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
    Quote"Synavive, wholly owned by Zalicus is having great success through its trials in Phase IIa."
    What does it mean? What kind of success you refer too?


    Quote"As said in the presentation big pharmas are lining up for the data from this trail. I believe a bidding war would ensue which will not only improve Zalicus's market cap but would almost eliminate the cash burn expenses from ongoing trials to market for Synavive. "
    Bidding war what for? Synavive or buy-out?
    Both will not be a good thing for a company that is going alone with a drug on a Billion dollar market if positive result will be out.
    3 Oct 2011, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • kingstonlefrazz
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
    good work correct in all your statements


    synavive is a billion dollar drug at the least


    zlcs should be much higher by 12/31
    3 Oct 2011, 09:16 AM Reply Like
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