jmrathbun's  Instablog

jmrathbun
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I've been investing for my retirement since the late 70s. I mainly use mutual funds and follow major trends. I doubled my money in the past decade. In the 80s and 90s I tripled in each decade.
  • Three Smart Fellas! 0 comments
    Jun 30, 2013 11:13 PM

    With the SP500 at 1606 and a lot of people pessimistic, I'm looking at positioning my portfolio mostly in equities for the next quarter. And I'm sure glad I sold my gold holdings around $1800! Debt seems like a scary place to be, as some have already discovered and, I think, a lot more soon will. Perhaps we'll have a rocky road this summer but I can't forecast short-term market moves and, fortunately, that has not hurt me terribly over the past several decades. Mainly I try to stay on the right side of major trends and let smarter people worry about the next few months.

    In that regard, you might be interested in this collection of interviews with three "whales" as recommended by one of my favorite sources, Jeff Miller: http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2013/06/three-great-interviews.html

    My own search for indicators has led me to three that test well over the history of US markets in my lifetime:

    The yield spread (10-year minus 3-month Treasuries) is mediocre at 2.3 and rising, which is bullish. This number is a week old (I don't get the new numbers until Wednesday) but we're a long way from any negative numbers here.

    The McClellan Summation Index has dropped to -134 and looks to be turning around... about what it did last November (which was not a bad time to be buying stocks!) It's well above where I would be a seller.

    S&P momentum is still strongly positive. Although it recently dipped below its intermediate-term uptrend, it has also broken above that nasty double top that formed in the first decade of the new century. Any further advance will be a breakout to new highs, and that's extremely bullish.

    I can't predict the future... some yahoo could still set off a nuke in Manhattan or San Diego and spoil things... but worrying about black swans rarely makes you wealthy. Absent cataclysm, I'd hate to be out of the market now. If I had cash I'd look on any dips as buying opportunities.

    My best-yielding fund so far this year has been T Rowe Price Health Sciences (MUTF:PRHSX), which makes sense given the aging of us Boomers.

    Stay well!

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