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Henry Ma
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Dr. Henry Ma, CFA, is a global macro manager who specializes in both short-term trading opportunities and long-term asset allocation strategies in global equity indexes, currencies, commodities, interest rates and ETF's. He is the portfolio manager of Julex Capital Management, which he founded... More
My company:
Julex Capital Management, LLC
My blog:
All Season Investing
  • Weekly Economic And Market Review 04-08-2012: Disappointing Spanish Bond Auction And US Job Reports Drove Stocks Lower 0 comments
    Apr 8, 2012 9:23 PM

    Top Stories Last Week

    • Disappointing Spanish bond auction

    In an auction of medium-term debt, Spanish government only sold €2.6 billion ($3.5 billion), which was at the bottom end of the €2.5 billion to €3.5 billion target it was looking to raise from the sales of bonds. The ten-year yield rose by 22 basis points to 5.63%. A month ago, the yield was 4.9%. European stock markets tumbled as a result.

    • US Economy added 120K jobs, much lower than expected

    The U.S. Labor Department said employers added 120,000 jobs, the fewest in five months and much less than the median economist forecast of 205,000. Yields on 10-year Treasuries dropped by 13 basis points and S&P 500 futures tumbled 1.1%.

    • Global PMI manufacturing reports

    PMI manufacturing indexes from US to China and UK are showing expansions in manufacturing activities in March, though Euro-zone's manufacturers are continue struggling. Chinese manufacturing index rose to 53.1 up from 51 in February. The March reading in the official report was the fourth consecutive monthly increase. The report has helped to ease concerns about a potential hard landing for the world's No. 2 economy. The US gauge rose 53.4, better than economists' forecasts. It provides further sign on the world's largest economy's gaining a stronger foothold.

    • ECB, BOE, RBA kept interest rates on hold

    European Central Bank, Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold at 1%, 0.5% and 4.25%, respectively, though all of them recognized the improving outlooks of the economies.

    Top Stories to Watch This Week

    • Global Inflation Reports

    The US, Germany and China will report consumer price index. Watch out for signs of inflation picking up.

    China: CPI is expected to increase to 3.4% from 3.2% YOY.

    Germany: CPI is expected to decline to 2.1% from 2.3% YOY.

    US: CPI is expected to decline to 2.6% from 2.9%.

    • Chinese GDP

    Chinese economy is expected to slowdown further to 8.4% from 8.9% last quarter.

    • Bank of Japan meeting

    Bank of Japan will meet to decide monetary policy and is expected to keep interest rate unchanged at 0.1%.

    Weekly Performance Summary

    All the portfolios declined slightly as results of negative performance of all risk assets during the week.

    Table 1: ETF Performance

    Asset Class Return  Last Week ReturnMTD ReturnYTD Return
    Equities     
     SPYUS Large Cap-0.7%-0.7%11.9%
     IWMUS Small Cap-1.5%-1.5%11.0%
     EFADeveloped Market Equity-3.4%-3.4%7.0%
     VWOEmerging Market Equity-0.7%-0.7%13.0%
    Dividend Assets     
     IYRUS REIT-1.3%-1.3%9.2%
     AMJUS Energy Master Trust0.0%0.0%1.6%
    Commodities     
     GLDGold-2.4%-2.4%4.2%
     GSGCommodity0.2%0.2%5.7%
    Bonds     
     HYGUS High Yield-0.5%-0.5%2.1%
     AGGUS Bond0.0%0.0%0.2%
     TIPUS Treasury Inflation Indexed Bond0.0%0.0%0.9%
     IEFUS Treasury Bond0.5%0.5%-1.4%
     TLTUS Long Term Treasury Bond0.9%0.9%-6.2%
     SHYUS Short Term Bond0.0%0.0%-0.1%

    Table 2: Weekly Portfolio Performance

    Portfolio SolutionsWTDMTD
    (1 day delay)
    YTD
    (1 day delay)
    1-YR
    (as of 12/11)
    5-YR
    (as of 12/11)
    10-YR
    (as of 12/11)
    Aggressive-1.2%-1.2%7.2%12.4%16.4%16.1%
    Moderate-1.0%-1.0%5.7%12.4%14.8%14.4%
    Conservative-0.7%-0.7%4.0%12.5%13.7%12.8%
    Defensive-0.5%-0.5%2.4%13.2%12.5%11.1%
    Concentrated Portfolio-1.4%-1.4%4.7%12.1%19.1%19.3%
    S&P 500 Index-0.7%-0.7%11.9%2.0%-0.3%2.9%
    Barclays Bond Index0.0%0.0%0.2%10.3%6.9%5.8%
    CPI Inflation   3.2%2.3%2.5%

    For more information about the multi-asset investment strategies, please visit allseasoninvesting.com.

    About ALL SEASON INVESTING: All Seasin Investing is an investment blog, created in December 2011 to offer investors insights and researches on how to implement a dynamic multi asset allocation strategy with the low-cost index funds or ETFs to achieve consistent returns while limiting downside risks through all stages of a market cycle.

    Disclosure: I am long SPY, IWM, EFA, VWO, IYR, AMJ, GLD, GSG, HYG, JNK, AGG, TIP, IEF, TLT, VNQ.

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