John Wilson's  Instablog

John Wilson
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Long term buyer and holder of silver. I still have silver from when it used to be the actual US money- when it had intrinsic value. I plan to hold it and hopefully accumulate more. Began investing and charting on paper in the late 1980's (hey, a computer cost $5000 then). On Gold: it's not that... More
  • Short Term Gold H&S Bottom 3/25/14 2 comments
    Mar 25, 2014 11:23 PM | about stocks: GLD, GDX

    Took some time out from doing my taxes tonight.

    Here is what I saw forming and completing on the Comex April contract chart, 60 minute bar: a "head and shoulders" pattern. It seems to show two pretty well formed shoulders, a left and right. Neckline is 1318.

    Very sharp "head" put in at 8:45 this AM (Tuesday 3/25)

    (click to enlarge)

    Completion of this Head and shoulders would signal the end of the recent sell down from 1390 to 1312.

    I may take a short-term position in view of completion of this "bottom" in this reaction in the Dec 31 to March 13 primary move. Do I know this will absolutely signal the end of the current sell down? I will not know until it completes or fails. It just looks very likely at this point.

    Consider what else is completing at the same time:

    This H&S bottom is occurring directly above the "Golden Cross" that is occurring below.

    Gold forms H&S on a 60 minute bar chart directly above the completing "Golden Cross" of the 50 and 200 day moving averages. see chart below.

    (click to enlarge)

    If this is a fake-out, it's almost impossible to do anything more than this to fake you out. Maybe its TOO obvious?

    What else is there to say?

    Disclosure: I am long GDX, SAND.

    Stocks: GLD, GDX
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  • alan shapiro
    , contributor
    Comments (1090) | Send Message
    Still waiting for the time being. Did very well with PPP and MUX, especially ,between Dec 30, and 3/16. Once again still waiting ... for short term . Back later. Hope you're doing well, ALAN.
    8 May 2014, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Wilson
    , contributor
    Comments (2059) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Alan
    Good to hear from you. I haven't been too active except for some commenting. I am actually finishing my taxes and will efile them this weekend. Then I will have that behind me and I will be finishing an article. As I began writing I realized it would actually be two articles or more Hope to have something in a week.


    That pattern I saw above didn't last very long, but we are seeing a consolidation pattern in gold now. I have some recent comments on Avi Gilburt's articles. Going into the second half of this year, the focus may be on preservation of capital. Gold may be an opportunity, it depends which way it breaks here. It is trending to the upside. That is what I will be writing about.


    17 May 2014, 10:42 PM Reply Like
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