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We try our best to teach as many people as we can about bio-techs and when to collect profits because we enjoy the outcome of watching so many traders turn red portfolios into green. We never like to be the ones who boast in saying, “I told you so” when you are down rather, “Great play!” when... More
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  • CLSN KERX And OPXA Are Affecting ARNA 4 comments
    Feb 6, 2013 3:57 AM

    During the week, I spent my time scanning the popular stock community websites to check in on the bio-tech traders. I started to do some research on the traders from Stocktwits to Seeking Alpha (and even Yahoo Message Boards). Here is what I found interesting;

    7 out of 10 publicly trading CLSN also publicly traded ARNA. 3 out of 10 in VRNG. 1 out of 10 in VVUS. 6 out of 10 in KERX.
    4 out of 10 publicly trading KERX also publicly traded ARNA. 2 out of 10 in VRNG. 7 out of 10 in VVUS. 2 out of 10 in CLSN.
    1 out of 10 publicly trading OPXA also publicly traded ARNA. 1 out of 10 in VRNG. 0 in VVUS. 1 out of 10 in CLSN.

    What does KERX, CLSN, OPXA all share in common today? They all wiped a large portion of the bio-tech traders out in the past week, hopefully only temporarily. Now, I am not here to argue whether it is wise to play long in bio-techs or swing the stocks (I believe just a brief scan can show you swingers winning everytime), but in these cases you can read the panic and the anger mixed in with explanations on how they managed to drop their accounts down 30-60% after being up over 35-50%.

    How does this affect a stock like ARNA or VRNG? Most of the posts made by these traders talk about a few strategies they made before entering KERX or CLSN. They were holding the bag on VRNG/ARNA and took the money out "temporarily" to play the other stocks but if you read their posts days or weeks later, they lost so much of their original investments-twice from the stocks listed above.

    The issue; not only did they decrease the value of their capital, they can no longer repurchase the original or increase their position in stocks they normally play weekly like ARNA or VRNG. This problem can ultimately change the future trends of ARNA and VRNG since personalities of past traders are gone and new ones may not be so ever inviting.

    If you have been playing ARNA since the end of January, you have noticed a few new issues we haven't witnessed in a long time. It has been over a year since ARNA has ever tested its 200MA line, and on Jan 31st, we finally touched the edge of a cliff and reversed before experiencing what it would be like to fall right off. Volume in ARNA is very low at normal time of increase/decrease giving us unexpected flat-lines or price drops. We have witnessed new candlestick trends showing constant ARNA weakness yet deciding to run up anyways catching people off guard.

    In the chat-room and on alerts, we have been able to scalp or swing ARNA over $1.50PPS in gains, but are there future issues for ARNA we have to be prepared for? Will $9.00 prove to be the toughest push for ARNA to get over from retailers exiting out for good due to constant loses from being pigs earlier?

    One thing to always keep in mind while trading bio-techs; Lock in your profits, understand the drug if you are playing the news, ONLY play momentum if you are looking to only play momentum. Do not change your strategy of play because you are up 60% and you believe $8,000 or $80,000 profit was not worth it. Pigs will always get slaughtered. Even if a pig gets lucky the first few times, eventually he will be buried with his CLSN.

    'To the moon' is a joke. You are not "investing" in a bio-tech before the drug you are "investing" for is not on the shelves yet alone approved by the FDA. That is not investing…that is called guessing. Companies with well know terrible management like HZNP, MNKD, PPHM, HEB are momentum/technical plays at best not investments. You will get burned every time if you do not play a bio-tech with a strategy and a reasonable target price that does not come out of thin air.

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Comments (4)
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  • piccaso
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    Yup... that naked pig playing sheeple on CLSN after it's been crushed hoping it keeps dropping to zero will always get buried. Especially when the company has a $1.00 per share sitting in the kitty. It will be fun to watch the herd of sheep all trying to buy themselves out of one exit.
    6 Feb 2013, 04:59 AM Reply Like
  • piccaso
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    Celsion also announced that its proprietary patent application, "Method of Storing Nanoparticle Formulations," has recently been allowed in China and granted in South Korea and Australia. Celsion holds an exclusive license agreement with Duke University for its temperature-sensitive liposome technology that covers the ThermoDox® formulation. Celsion's newly issued patents pertain specifically to methods of storing stabilized, temperature-sensitive liposomal formulations and will assist in the protection of global rights. These patents will extend the overall term of the ThermoDox® patent portfolio to 2026. The patents in these three countries are the first in this family, which includes pending applications in the U.S., Europe and additional key commercial geographies in Asia. This extended patent runway to 2026 allows for the evaluation of future development activities for ThermoDox and Celsion's heat-sensitive liposome technology.

     

    "We have started the population sub-group analyses for the HEAT Study," said Michael H. Tardugno, Celsion's President and Chief Executive Officer. "While we understand HISUN's decision regarding the exclusive option for a license at this time, it is important to note that our Technology Development Contract remains in force and will do so pending the results of our sub-group analysis. Furthermore, our program for expanding patent coverage is intended to add long-term value to our drug pipeline, extending both the term of our ThermoDox® patent estate, supporting our multifaceted portfolio development and life-cycle management strategy, as well as broadening the breadth of patent protection around temperature-sensitive liposomal formulations."

     

    Celsion ended 2012 with a strong balance sheet that provides the Company the opportunity to evaluate its future development plans. The Company projects its unaudited cash and investment balance to be approximately $23 million as of December 31, 2012 and approximately $27 million as of January 31, 2013.
    6 Feb 2013, 05:23 AM Reply Like
  • Avida Capital Group
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Besides citing other people's work, what does this have to do with the fact a lot of bio-tech traders went for broke?
    8 Feb 2013, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • piccaso
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    2/5/2013 - Buyins.net says Celsion is #1 on the naked short sell list, "buy in imminent"...
    6 Feb 2013, 05:30 AM Reply Like
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