I'm seeing more and more articles on the markets being "frothy", "overvalued", and facing increased likelihood of a short term correction. I've also read some skeptics who say the Fed will be unable to stop the flow of easy money, given the political reality that the backlash of economic impact will have on the system. The result - long term inflation is likely inevitable (see Ben Bernanke, who cites the fact that NO economy in the history of the world has been able to flood their system with liquidity and stave off the resulting inflationary impact).
The dilemma: if inflation is likely, one must have equity exposure to maintain buying power. If one has equity exposure, one increases risk of market correction if/when The Fed does taper.
As for me, a quick overview: a 50 year old with a low 7 figure portfolio, targeting "retirement" within 4 years. Perhaps "financial independence" is a better term - or being able to forgo the corporate paycheck in a quest to fully live my prime years between 54 - 74 with no regrets. Current asset mix: 60% equity (small-mid-large-int'l), 20% bonds (mutual funds, muni's, target funds), 15% cash, 5% commodity.
The question: What to do? Close my eyes (ok, maybe squint a bit through the almost closed slits), maintain higher equity and ride out any potential cycles? Or..Cash out 10-20% as a cautionary move and reinvest on targeted tranches if/when the market declines??
This is my first post on SA, and I realize there are some REALLY smart financial folks out here. I welcome your guidance, sages!!
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.