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Jari Ulmer
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Jari Ulmer is a long term investor with a focus on income and stability. He holds a B.S. in Science and M.S. in Engineering and works tirelessly in the civil service. Jari's interest in financial writing stems from a long standing fascination with numerical analysis and presentation. He is a... More
  • Bond Play: A Look At Federal Furloughs - The Data 0 comments
    Mar 8, 2013 10:14 AM

    The Data

    Federal Employee demographics are published by the Office of Personnel Management with latest dataset coming from September of 2012. Government Executive is currently updating a list of all federal agencies who have publicly addressed the need for furloughs. A few agencies have issued official furlough letters with set terms, while some simply guess they may "need to furlough [insert vague large sounding number] for [insert indeterminate number of days]".

    In order to break down our analysis into something finer than $85 billion we'll need to find which of the 100+ agencies are forced to make cuts.

    For this analysis we'll focus only on the agencies that are considering a furlough. Where those agencies haven't specified a length of their furlough we'll assume the average, which is 17.4 days. If an agency doesn't give an exact number of potentially affected employees we'll assume the worst case: the entire agency.

    Using the above assumptions I've derived an agency adjusted furlough scenario that affects 693,926 employees at the cost (savings) of $49.9 billion over the next year. Note the following is thus a conservative estimate as these numbers are higher than the $46 billion on the books for 2013.

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