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Peter Brock
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Vancouver-based, I am a veteran of the investment industry. I inhabit Graham & Doddsville, but I am not a strict fundamentalist. My abiding interest in investor misbehaviour and market history has led me to the dark side. I now draw trendlines and track market internals. I'm an active online... More
My company:
Brock Value, Lost Decades, The Investor's Bodyguard
My blog:
My book:
The Investor's Bodyguard Companion Guide
  • The Intrinsic Value Of The S&P 500 (May 18, 2012) 0 comments
    May 22, 2012 11:07 PM | about stocks: SPY, DIA

    With US GDP at $15.46 trillion and Moody's Aaa bonds yielding 3.72%, the intrinsic value of the S&P 500 index as measured by BV is 2227.83.

    By comparison, the S&P closed at 1295.22 on May 18, 42% below fair value.

    (click to enlarge)

    Understanding Brock Value charts

    The red and green lines found on many of the BV charts on this site are 0.33 standard deviations over and under BV. These lines fence in the normal range of the market. When the market is above the red line, ten-year returns tend to be lower than average. When the market is below the green line, ten-year returns tend to be higher than average.

    (click to enlarge)
    The red and green lines are one-third of a standard deviation from BV, the white line.

    For more about Brock Value, please visit my site.

    Themes: valuation, intrinsic value Stocks: SPY, DIA
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  • After 12 years and six months, the Dow has produced a measly 0.78% annual return, dividends included. $SPY http://lostdecades.com
    Jul 8, 2012
  • Moody's Aaa weekly rate hits new cycle low, lowest since the 1950s. Intrinsic value of the S&P now 2275. http://brockvalue.com
    Jun 26, 2012
  • Market mired in gloom, 41% below fair value. Upside beckons. $SPY $DIA http://brockvalue.com
    Jun 20, 2012
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fair value, intrinsic value, lost decade, lost decades, market valuation, market-outlook, real total return, shiller cape, valuation, Valuation
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