O. Young Kwon's  Instablog

O. Young Kwon
Send Message
O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. in Economics had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. He taught Macroeconomics and Statistics. Prior to his academic career, he was an Economist/Bank Supervisor at the Bank of Korea (the Fed's counterpart). In 2009 he set up the... More
  • Riding Tigers (NFLX, CMG, and BIDU) : The 2010 Record 0 comments
    Feb 13, 2011 5:22 AM
     
                              The Tiger Rule
     
    Rule 1 : Each Bet is Strictly Independent. 
     
    Rule 2 : 2 or 3 Tigers Only . 
     
    Rule 3 : Maximum Commitment : 5% of Capital    
     
     
    DISCLAIMER : The Tiger Rule is my own rule, which may not necessarily be suitable for you. Some adjustments based on your situation are required in case you want to adopt it.
     
    Some clarifications of the Rule : Rules 2 and 3 are straightforward. Rule 1, however, needs further clarification. The betting size and term depend on (a) the shape of supply and demand curves and (b) human judgment. Supply and demand curves are not directly observable.
     
    Riding Tigers is just one of my three extra activities (“Riding Tigers,” “Day-Trading’” and “Long Shorts”), and is still in the process of development. So far, my experience dictates the following.
     
    "The stiffer the curves of the supply/demand schedule, and or, the swifter the shift of the schedule, the smaller the betting and/or the shorter the term."
     
    The second issue (b) is a question of an optimal contribution level of human beings (and its justification) to successfully implement the pure unbiased outputs of a machine,(TANER in this discussion), You can capture my views in the forthcoming series...
     
    Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG), and Bidu.com (NASDAQ:BIDU) have been quite volatile through the entire year. BIDU seems to recently settle at around the $100 range, which is $1,000 on a prior-split (10 to 1 on 5/12) basis. NFLX has advanced strongly (almost vertically) all year until heating a top ($206.80) on 11/30. It had enjoyed a great upward momentum after BB’s fall. News of CMCSA TWX, CSTR, and all related firms have continuously generated lots of recommendations, tips, charts, reports, rumors, noises, emotions, hunches, cries, excitement, and even curses. Anyway, NFLX is the king of tigers this year. It is now flying with a harsh head wind. We simply do not know its journey next year. CMG is showing a little bit different perspective. It seems to anchor around 230.
     
     
     

     
      
    The following table is a list of actual consolidated tiger trades this year. The columns of cost ($) and sale proceed ($) are hidden..
     
    SYMB
    B DATE
    B PRICE
    S DATE
    S PRICE
    COMM
    G/(NYSE:L) %
    #DAY
    NFLX
    6/3/2010
    $112.78
    6/10/2010
    $119.02
    $0.00
    5.5%
    7
    NFLX
    7/8/2010
    $116.78
    7/12/2010
    $119.64
    $0.00
    2.4%
    4
    NFLX
    7/20/2010
    $117.13
    7/21/2010
    $123.25
    $5.90
    3.5%
    1
    NFLX
    7/23/2010
    $103.08
    7/23/2010
    $108.64
    $5.90
    4.2%
    0
    NFLX
    7/26/2010
    $102.40
    7/27/2010
    $104.67
    $5.90
    1.6%
    1
    NFLX
    7/28/2010
    $102.59
    7/30/2010
    $101.65
    $0.00
    (0.9%)
    2
    NFLX
    7/29/2010
    $96.66
    7/30/2010
    $101.65
    $0.00
    5.2%
    1
    NFLX
    8/2/2010
    $101.46
    8/4/2010
    $106.85
    $0.00
    5.3%
    2
    NFLX
    8/5/2010
    $106.58
    8/5/2010
    $108.52
    $0.00
    1.8%
    0
    NFLX
    8/6/2010
    $108.90
    8/10/2010
    $124.25
    $0.00
    14.1%
    4
    NFLX
    8/17/2010
    $134.94
    11/22/2010
    $183.85
    $5.90
    36.0%
    97
    NFLX
    8/18/2010
    $129.00
    11/29/2010
    $194.93
    $5.90
    50.9%
    103
    NFLX
    8/23/2010
    $128.56
    9/1/2010
    $130.78
    $0.00
    1.7%
    9
    NFLX
    8/31/2010
    $122.60
    9/1/2010
    $130.78
    $0.00
    6.7%
    1
    NFLX
    9/10/2010
    $146.70
    9/13/2010
    $148.71
    $0.00
    1.4%
    3
    NFLX
    9/14/2010
    $146.87
    9/22/2010
    $152.60
    $2.95
    3.7%
    8
    NFLX
    9/28/2010
    $161.81
    9/29/2010
    $164.21
    $5.90
    1.2%
    1
    NFLX
    9/30/2010
    $167.68
    10/21/2010
    $173.06
    $5.90
    2.9%
    21
    NFLX
    9/30/2010
    $163.03
    10/26/2010
    $173.99
    $5.90
    6.3%
    26
    NFLX
    10/1/2010
    $159.99
    10/21/2010
    $170.97
    $4.95
    6.6%
    20
    NFLX
    10/28/2010
    $174.41
    11/10/2010
    $175.84
    $5.90
    0.5%
    13
    CMG
    2/2/2010
    $99.99
    3/1/2010
    $107.39
    $0.00
    7.4%
    27
    CMG
    9/9/2010
    $163.19
    9/10/2010
    $164.44
    $0.00
    0.8%
    1
    CMG
    9/29/2010
    $176.07
    10/5/2010
    $177.50
    $5.90
    0.5%
    6
    CMG
    10/28/2010
    $210.50
    11/4/2010
    $222.29
    $5.90
    5.3%
    7
    CMG
    12/6/2010
    $235.53
    12/7/2010
    $241.52
    $0.00
    2.5%
    1
    BIDU
    2/9/2010
    $439.90
    3/8/2010
    $534.50
    $0.00
    21.5%
    27
    BIDU
    7/12/2010
    $71.06
    7/13/2010
    $73.31
    $0.00
    3.2%
    1
    BIDU
    8/5/2010
    $85.73
    8/10/2010
    $87.89
    $0.00
    2.5%
    5
    BIDU
    10/6/2010
    $102.30
    10/18/2010
    $102.55
    $3.84
    0.1%
    12
    BIDU
    10/6/2010
    $102.30
    10/18/2010
    $104.68
    $3.84
    2.2%
    12
    BIDU
    10/6/2010
    $102.30
    10/22/2010
    $107.75
    $3.54
    5.2%
    16
    BIDU
    10/6/2010
    $102.30
    10/25/2010
    $109.62
    $3.54
    7.0%
    19
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
    33
    P/(L)
    TRADINGS
     
    MEAN
    $2.65
    6.6%
    14
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
    NOTE:   
     
    • Loss (-0.9% on 7/30/2010)                     
    • Day-trading (8/5/2010 & 7/23/2010)         
    • Longest Holding : 103 days         
    • COMM : two-way commissions                      
    • Tiger in The Tiger Rule has no relation with Tiger Woods.
Back To O. Young Kwon's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • TANER Schwab Model (TWM) Momentum 8/30/2016 Tuesday: (3) $SCHB (Schwab Broad Market ETF) <c>
    about 3 hours ago
  • TANER Schwab Model (TWM) Momentum 8/30/2016 Tuesday: (2) $SCHD (Schwab U.S. Dividend Equities ETF) <c>
    about 3 hours ago
  • TANER Schwab Model (TWM) Momentum 8/30/2016 Tuesday: (1)) $SCHM (Schwab Mid-Cap ETF) <c>
    about 3 hours ago
More »
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.