Seeking Alpha

O. Young Kwon's  Instablog

O. Young Kwon
134 Followers
1 Following
Send Message
O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. in Economics had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. He taught Macroeconomics and Statistics. Prior to his academic career, he was an Economist/Bank Supervisor at the Bank of Korea (the Fed's counterpart). In 2009 he set up the... More
  • The Market Stress Index (MSI) 0 comments
    Feb 8, 2013 12:15 PM

    The Market Stress Index (MSI) (May 20, 2013, Monday)

    This post is based on my article, titled "The Relationship Between A New "Market Stress Index (MSI)" And The Market" (seekingalpha.com/article/1187701

    Three distinguishable political events - the 11/6/2012 election, the 12/31/2012 tax deal, and the 1/23/2013 House Debt-Limit-Extension bill --, as explained in my "A Lackluster Market Ahead As Budget Fight Is Looming" seekingalpha.com/article/1135161, are used to make the benchmark of the MSI.

    Daily updates of the MSI indicate the level of market strains, caused by various outside data such as monetary and fiscal policies, political events, and other natural and geopolitical disruptions.

    The market stress level has risen since Wednesday (February 6, 2013), affected by looming budget battles. The MSI has became in a low level, ranging 21.4 to 28.6 from 3/7 (Wednesday) to 3/14 (Thursday). From 3/15 (Friday) to 3/25 (Monday) the MSI jumped to a range between 42.9 and 50.0. These high MSIs reflect the Cyprus worries.

    Between on 3/26 (Tuesday)and 4/9 (Tuesday) it was in a range between 35.7 and42.9. Between 4/10 (Wednesday) and 4/18 (Thursday) it was in a range of 28.6 and 21.4. On 4/19 (Friday) it was 35.7. On 4/22 (Monday) and 4/23 (Tuesday)it was 50.0. Between 4/24 (Wednesday) and 4/29 (Monday) it was 42.9. Between 4/30 (Tuesday) and 5/2 (Thursday) it was 50.0. On 5/3 (Friday) it was 57.1.

    On 5/6 (Monday) and 5/7 (Tuesday) it was 50.0. On 5/8 (Wednesday) it was 57.1. On 5/9 (Thursday) it was 50.0. The market recovered from the Boston Incident, but the market stress is mounted with the market a double-bottom signal as shown in the Daily Market Condition (DMC) until 5/9 (Thursday..

    On 5/10 (Friday) it was 35.7. On 5/13 (Monday) it was 28.6. On 5/14 it was 21.4. On 5/15 (Wednesday) it was 35.7. On 5/16 (Thursday) it was 42.9. On 5/17 (Friday) it was 35.9. On 5/20 (Monday) it is expected to fall to 28.6. Does the MPI calm down?

    The Market Stress Index (MSI)
    REDS10Y TN
    DATEDIYieldMSSMSI
    10/16/20123.5%1.720%**
    10/17/20123.4%1.810%0*
    10/18/20123.5%1.830%100*
    10/19/20123.2%1.770%50*
    10/22/20122.6%1.800%0*
    10/23/20122.3%1.760%50*
    10/24/20121.8%1.770%0*
    10/25/20121.6%1.830%0*
    10/26/20121.5%1.750%5028.6
    10/29/20121.8%1.740%5035.7
    10/30/20121.6%1.720%5028.6
    10/31/20122.3%1.690%5028.6
    11/1/20121.6%1.710%035.7
    11/2/20120.6%1.730%028.6
    11/5/20121.3%1.680%5028.6
    11/6/20120.4%1.740%035.7
    11/7/20120.7%1.630%5028.6
    11/8/20121.2%1.630%10028.6
    11/9/20121.4%1.610%5035.7
    11/12/20120.6%1.610%5035.7
    11/13/20120.4%1.590%5042.9
    11/14/20121.0%1.590%10050.0
    11/15/20120.7%1.589%5057.1
    12/19/20123.1%1.800%5064.3
    12/20/20122.5%1.800%064.3
    12/21/20122.6%1.750%5050.0
    12/24/20122.0%1.770%5050.0
    12/26/20121.7%1.760%5050.0
    12/27/20121.9%1.710%5050.0
    12/28/20121.9%1.710%5042.9
    12/31/20121.1%1.760%042.9
    1/2/20131.1%1.840%035.7
    1/3/20131.1%1.899%035.7
    1/4/20131.3%1.910%10028.6
    1/7/20130.9%1.900%5035.7
    1/8/20130.7%1.870%5035.7
    1/9/20130.7%1.850%5035.7
    1/10/20130.9%1.890%10035.7
    1/11/20130.9%1.880%5050.0
    1/14/20131.7%1.860%5057.1
    1/15/20132.5%1.830%5064.3
    1/16/20132.7%1.820%5057.1
    1/17/20133.1%1.880%10057.1
    1/18/20133.4%1.840%5064.3
    1/22/20133.9%1.835%5064.3
    1/23/20134.2%1.830%5057.1
    1/24/20133.6%1.840%057.1
    1/25/20133.4%1.950%050.0
    1/28/20133.3%1.870%042.9
    1/29/20132.7%1.990%035.7
    1/30/20133.1%2.010%10021.4
    1/31/20133.3%1.990%5028.6
    2/1/20133.2%2.010%028.6
    2/4/20133.3%1.970%5021.4
    2/5/20132.9%2.020%028.6
    2/6/20133.5%1.968%5028.6
    2/7/20133.2%1.950%5035.7
    2/8/20133.3%1.951%10042.9
    2/11/20133.6%1.946%5042.9
    2/12/20133.8%1.980%10042.9
    2/13/20133.8%2.179%057.1
    2/14/20133.9%2.000%5050.0
    2/15/20133.6%2.010%057.1
    2/19/20133.3%2.030%050.0
    2/20/20133.2%2.210%042.9
    2/21/20132.7%1.980%5028.6
    2/22/20133.7%1.970%5028.6
    2/25/20134.4%1.895%10021.4
    2/26/20134.5%1.879%5035.7
    2/27/20133.9%1.903%035.7
    2/28/20133.6%1.888%5035.7
    3/1/20133.1%1.853%5042.9
    3/4/20133.0%1.877%050.0
    3/5/20132.8%1.894%042.9
    3/6/20132.8%1.894%035.7
    3/7/20132.9%1.991%10021.4
    3/8/20132.6%2.056%028.6
    8/11/20132.4%2.056%028.6
    3/12/20132.8%2.023%5021.4
    3/13/20132.5%2.021%5021.4
    3/14/20133.5%2.033%10028.6
    3/15/20133.0%1.996%5042.9
    3/18/20133.4%1.956%5050.0
    3/19/20133.4%1.908%5042.9
    3/20/20133.1%1.937%050.0
    3/21/20133.2%1.932%5050.0
    3/22/20132.9%1.915%5050.0
    3/25/20132.9%1.915%050.0
    3/26/20132.8%1.906%5035.7
    3/27/20133.3%1.851%5035.7
    8/28/20133.3%1.851%5035.7
    4/1/20133.4%1.840%5035.7
    4/2/20133.2%1.861%042.9
    4/3/20133.2%1.861%5035.7
    4/4/20133.7%1.759%5035.7
    4/5/20134.2%1.694%5042.9
    4/8/20134.0%1.732%042.9
    4/9/20134.0%1.747%035.7
    4/10/20133.5%1.805%028.6
    4/11/20134.4%1.791%5021.4
    4/12/20134.0%1.721%5028.6
    4/15/20134.3%1.702%5028.6
    4/16/20134.0%1.719%028.6
    4/17/20133.4%1.704%5021.4
    4/18/20134.1%1.685%5028.6
    4/19/20134.2%1.703%10035.7
    4/22/20134.5%1.698%5050.0
    4/23/20134.4%1.698%050.0
    4/24/20134.8%1.698%5042.9
    4/25/20134.4%1.711%042.9
    4/26/20135.3%1.663%5042.9
    4/29/20136.0%1.670%10042.9
    4/30/20136.7%1.675%10050.0
    5/1/20136.5%1.639%5050.0
    5/2/20136.2%1.631%5050.0
    5/3/20135.2%1.752%057.1
    5/6/20135.0%1.771%050.0
    5/7/20135.4%1.783%10050.0
    5/8/20135.8%1.760%5057.1
    5/9/20135.2%1.830%050.0
    5/10/20134.4%1.900%035.7
    5/13/20134.0%1.923%028.6
    5/14/20134.5%1.952%10021.4
    5/15/20134.5%1.943%5035.7
    5/16/20134.6%1.865%5042.9
    5/17/20134.1%1.949%035.7
    5/20/2013***28.6
    NOTE
    REDS = The RED Spread
    MSS = Market Stress Score
    MSI = Market Stress Index

Back To O. Young Kwon's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • <$SPY $PFM $VPU $PGF $PZA $PHB $BWX $HD $KSU $KO> May 20, 2013. The Market Stress Index (MSI) is a daily post, titled <c>
    about 1 hour ago
  • <$BND $VTI $SPY $TIP $VWO $PHB> The Daily Market Condition [DMC] (5/20/2013) updates A NEW Market Condition Monitor with Two Indicators:<c>
    about 1 hour ago
  • The Market Stress Index (MSI) (Instablog) Updated on May 20 Monday) yk
    about 1 hour ago
More »

Latest Comments


Most Commented
Posts by Themes
market-outlook
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.