Seeking Alpha

O. Young Kwon's Instablog

Send Message

O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. in Economics had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. He taught Macroeconomics and Statistics. Prior to his academic career, he was an Economist/Bank Supervisor at the Bank of Korea (the Fed's counterpart). In 2009 he set up the... More

The Market Stress Index (MSI) 0 comments

Feb 8, 2013 12:15 PM

The Market Stress Index (MSI) (June 13, 2013, Monday)

This post is based on my article, titled "The Relationship Between A New "Market Stress Index (MSI)" And The Market" (seekingalpha.com/article/1187701

Three distinguishable political events - the 11/6/2012 election, the 12/31/2012 tax deal, and the 1/23/2013 House Debt-Limit-Extension bill --, as explained in my "A Lackluster Market Ahead As Budget Fight Is Looming" seekingalpha.com/article/1135161, are used to make the benchmark of the MSI.

Daily updates of the MSI indicate the level of market strains, caused by various outside data such as monetary and fiscal policies, political events, and other natural and geopolitical disruptions.

The market stress level has risen since Wednesday (February 6, 2013), affected by looming budget battles. The MSI has became in a low level, ranging 21.4 to 28.6 from 3/7 (Wednesday) to 3/14 (Thursday). From 3/15 (Friday) to 3/25 (Monday) the MSI jumped to a range between 42.9 and 50.0. These high MSIs reflect the Cyprus worries.

Between on 3/26 (Tuesday)and 4/9 (Tuesday) it was in a range between 35.7 and42.9. Between 4/10 (Wednesday) and 4/18 (Thursday) it was in a range of 28.6 and 21.4. On 4/19 (Friday) it was 35.7. On 4/22 (Monday) and 4/23 (Tuesday)it was 50.0. Between 4/24 (Wednesday) and 4/29 (Monday) it was 42.9. Between 4/30 (Tuesday) and 5/2 (Thursday) it was 50.0. On 5/3 (Friday) it was 57.1.

On 5/6 (Monday) and 5/7 (Tuesday) it was 50.0. On 5/8 (Wednesday) it was 57.1. On 5/9 (Thursday) it was 50.0. The market recovered from the Boston Incident, but the market stress is mounted with the market a double-bottom signal as shown in the Daily Market Condition (DMC) until 5/9 (Thursday..

On 5/10 (Friday) it was 35.7. On 5/13 (Monday) it was 28.6. On 5/14 it was 21.4. On 5/15 (Wednesday) it was 35.7. On 5/16 (Thursday) it was 42.9. On 5/17 (Friday) it was 35.9. On 5/20 (Monday) and on 5/21 (Tuesday) it was 28.6. On 5/22 (Wednesday) and on 5/23 (Thursday) it was 35.7. On 5/24 (Friday) and on 5/28 (Tuesday) it was 28.6. On 5/29 (Wednesday) it was 21.4. On 5/30 (Thursday) it was 28.6. On 5/31 (Friday) it was 35.7.

On 6/3 (Monday) it was 28.6. On 6/4 (Tuesday) it was 35.7. On 6/5 (Wednesday) and 6/6 (Thursday)it was 28.6. On 6/7 (Friday) it was 35.7. On 6/10 (Monday) it was 28.6. On 6/11 (Tuesday) it was 21.4. On 6/12 (Wednesday) it was 28.6. On 6/13 (Thursday) it was 35.7. On 6/14 (Friday) it was 42.9. On 6/17 (Monday) it is also expected to be 42.9.

Will the MPI mount much higher ?

The Market Stress Index (MSI)
REDS	10Y TN
DATE	DI	Yield	MSS	MSI
10/16/2012	3.5%	1.720%	*	*
10/17/2012	3.4%	1.810%	0	*
10/18/2012	3.5%	1.830%	100	*
10/19/2012	3.2%	1.770%	50	*
10/22/2012	2.6%	1.800%	0	*
10/23/2012	2.3%	1.760%	50	*
10/24/2012	1.8%	1.770%	0	*
10/25/2012	1.6%	1.830%	0	*
10/26/2012	1.5%	1.750%	50	28.6
10/29/2012	1.8%	1.740%	50	35.7
10/30/2012	1.6%	1.720%	50	28.6
10/31/2012	2.3%	1.690%	50	28.6
11/1/2012	1.6%	1.710%	0	35.7
11/2/2012	0.6%	1.730%	0	28.6
11/5/2012	1.3%	1.680%	50	28.6
11/6/2012	0.4%	1.740%	0	35.7
11/7/2012	0.7%	1.630%	50	28.6
11/8/2012	1.2%	1.630%	100	28.6
11/9/2012	1.4%	1.610%	50	35.7
11/12/2012	0.6%	1.610%	50	35.7
11/13/2012	0.4%	1.590%	50	42.9
11/14/2012	1.0%	1.590%	100	50.0
11/15/2012	0.7%	1.589%	50	57.1
12/19/2012	3.1%	1.800%	50	64.3
12/20/2012	2.5%	1.800%	0	64.3
12/21/2012	2.6%	1.750%	50	50.0
12/24/2012	2.0%	1.770%	50	50.0
12/26/2012	1.7%	1.760%	50	50.0
12/27/2012	1.9%	1.710%	50	50.0
12/28/2012	1.9%	1.710%	50	42.9
12/31/2012	1.1%	1.760%	0	42.9
1/2/2013	1.1%	1.840%	0	35.7
1/3/2013	1.1%	1.899%	0	35.7
1/4/2013	1.3%	1.910%	100	28.6
1/7/2013	0.9%	1.900%	50	35.7
1/8/2013	0.7%	1.870%	50	35.7
1/9/2013	0.7%	1.850%	50	35.7
1/10/2013	0.9%	1.890%	100	35.7
1/11/2013	0.9%	1.880%	50	50.0
1/14/2013	1.7%	1.860%	50	57.1
1/15/2013	2.5%	1.830%	50	64.3
1/16/2013	2.7%	1.820%	50	57.1
1/17/2013	3.1%	1.880%	100	57.1
1/18/2013	3.4%	1.840%	50	64.3
1/22/2013	3.9%	1.835%	50	64.3
1/23/2013	4.2%	1.830%	50	57.1
1/24/2013	3.6%	1.840%	0	57.1
1/25/2013	3.4%	1.950%	0	50.0
1/28/2013	3.3%	1.870%	0	42.9
1/29/2013	2.7%	1.990%	0	35.7
1/30/2013	3.1%	2.010%	100	21.4
1/31/2013	3.3%	1.990%	50	28.6
2/1/2013	3.2%	2.010%	0	28.6
2/4/2013	3.3%	1.970%	50	21.4
2/5/2013	2.9%	2.020%	0	28.6
2/6/2013	3.5%	1.968%	50	28.6
2/7/2013	3.2%	1.950%	50	35.7
2/8/2013	3.3%	1.951%	100	42.9
2/11/2013	3.6%	1.946%	50	42.9
2/12/2013	3.8%	1.980%	100	42.9
2/13/2013	3.8%	2.179%	0	57.1
2/14/2013	3.9%	2.000%	50	50.0
2/15/2013	3.6%	2.010%	0	57.1
2/19/2013	3.3%	2.030%	0	50.0
2/20/2013	3.2%	2.210%	0	42.9
2/21/2013	2.7%	1.980%	50	28.6
2/22/2013	3.7%	1.970%	50	28.6
2/25/2013	4.4%	1.895%	100	21.4
2/26/2013	4.5%	1.879%	50	35.7
2/27/2013	3.9%	1.903%	0	35.7
2/28/2013	3.6%	1.888%	50	35.7
3/1/2013	3.1%	1.853%	50	42.9
3/4/2013	3.0%	1.877%	0	50.0
3/5/2013	2.8%	1.894%	0	42.9
3/6/2013	2.8%	1.894%	0	35.7
3/7/2013	2.9%	1.991%	100	21.4
3/8/2013	2.6%	2.056%	0	28.6
8/11/2013	2.4%	2.056%	0	28.6
3/12/2013	2.8%	2.023%	50	21.4
3/13/2013	2.5%	2.021%	50	21.4
3/14/2013	3.5%	2.033%	100	28.6
3/15/2013	3.0%	1.996%	50	42.9
3/18/2013	3.4%	1.956%	50	50.0
3/19/2013	3.4%	1.908%	50	42.9
3/20/2013	3.1%	1.937%	0	50.0
3/21/2013	3.2%	1.932%	50	50.0
3/22/2013	2.9%	1.915%	50	50.0
3/25/2013	2.9%	1.915%	0	50.0
3/26/2013	2.8%	1.906%	50	35.7
3/27/2013	3.3%	1.851%	50	35.7
8/28/2013	3.3%	1.851%	50	35.7
4/1/2013	3.4%	1.840%	50	35.7
4/2/2013	3.2%	1.861%	0	42.9
4/3/2013	3.2%	1.861%	50	35.7
4/4/2013	3.7%	1.759%	50	35.7
4/5/2013	4.2%	1.694%	50	42.9
4/8/2013	4.0%	1.732%	0	42.9
4/9/2013	4.0%	1.747%	0	35.7
4/10/2013	3.5%	1.805%	0	28.6
4/11/2013	4.4%	1.791%	50	21.4
4/12/2013	4.0%	1.721%	50	28.6
4/15/2013	4.3%	1.702%	50	28.6
4/16/2013	4.0%	1.719%	0	28.6
4/17/2013	3.4%	1.704%	50	21.4
4/18/2013	4.1%	1.685%	50	28.6
4/19/2013	4.2%	1.703%	100	35.7
4/22/2013	4.5%	1.698%	50	50.0
4/23/2013	4.4%	1.698%	0	50.0
4/24/2013	4.8%	1.698%	50	42.9
4/25/2013	4.4%	1.711%	0	42.9
4/26/2013	5.3%	1.663%	50	42.9
4/29/2013	6.0%	1.670%	100	42.9
4/30/2013	6.7%	1.675%	100	50.0
5/1/2013	6.5%	1.639%	50	50.0
5/2/2013	6.2%	1.631%	50	50.0
5/3/2013	5.2%	1.752%	0	57.1
5/6/2013	5.0%	1.771%	0	50.0
5/7/2013	5.4%	1.783%	100	50.0
5/8/2013	5.8%	1.760%	50	57.1
5/9/2013	5.2%	1.830%	0	50.0
5/10/2013	4.4%	1.900%	0	35.7
5/13/2013	4.0%	1.923%	0	28.6
5/14/2013	4.5%	1.952%	100	21.4
5/15/2013	4.5%	1.943%	50	35.7
5/16/2013	4.6%	1.865%	50	42.9
5/17/2013	4.1%	1.949%	0	35.7
5/20/2013	4.1%	1.965%	0	28.6
5/21/2013	4.2%	1.944%	50	28.6
5/22/2013	3.9%	2.030%	0	35.7
5/23/2013	3.9%	2.023%	50	35.7
5/24/2013	2.8%	2.011%	50	28.6
5/28/2013	0.8%	2.135%	0	28.6
5/29/2013	1.2%	2.124%	50	21.4
5/30/2013	1.6%	2.124%	50	28.6
5/31/2013	1.5%	2.164%	0	35.7
6/3/2013	1.3%	2.134%	50	28.6
3/4/1900	0.6%	2.137%	0	35.7
6/5/2013	0.8%	2.100%	50	28.6
6/6/2013	0.7%	2.075%	50	28.6
6/7/2013	-0.1%	2.161%	0	35.7
6/10/2013	-0.2%	2.215%	0	28.6
6/11/2013	-0.2%	2.195%	50	21.4
6/12/2013	0.0%	2.230%	100	28.6
6/13/2013	-0.2%	2.170%	50	35.7
6/14/2013	-0.4%	2.126%	50	42.9
6/17/2013	*	*	*	42.9
NOTE
REDS = The RED Spread
MSS = Market Stress Score
MSI = Market Stress Index

Back To O. Young Kwon's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Share this Instablog

Tweet

Full index of posts »

Latest Followers

StockTalks

TANER ETF Model (TEM) Momentum 6/19/2013 Wednesday): (1-2-3) <$DIA $VHT $BWX> SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF ($DIA) <c>
about 3 hours ago
<$BND $VTI $SPY $TIP $VWO $PHB> The Daily Market Condition (DMC) (6/19,/2013) updates A NEW Market Condition Monitor with Two Indicators:<c>
about 3 hours ago
<$SPY $PFM $VPU $PGF $PZA $PHB $BWX $HD $KSU $KO> June 19, 2013. The Market Stress Index (MSI) is a daily post, titled <c>
about 3 hours ago

O. Young Kwon on The Daily TANER Momentum Hello Yanger Please view this article to the en...
yanger on The Daily TANER Momentum Excuse me. I'm not very clear about some points...
O. Young Kwon on The REDS S&P 500 Prediction (RSP) @ lower98th.Thanks for your comment.I already p...
lower98th on The REDS S&P 500 Prediction (RSP) Hi: I enjoy reading your blogs. I wonder if it ...
O. Young Kwon on The Daily TANER Momentum Hello Hillbilly Stock Sstar:Thanks for your com...

Posts by Themes

Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.

O. Young Kwon's Instablog

The Market Stress Index (MSI) 0 comments

Share this Instablog

Latest Followers

StockTalks

Latest Comments

Most Commented

Posts by Themes

Instablogged Stocks

Latest Instablog Posts

Top Instablogs