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O. Young Kwon
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O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. in Economics had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. He taught Macroeconomics and Statistics. Prior to his academic career, he was an Economist/Bank Supervisor at the Bank of Korea (the Fed's counterpart). In 2009 he set up the... More
  • The Market Stress Index (MSI) 2 comments
    Aug 10, 2013 9:28 AM

    The Market Stress Index (NYSE:MSI) (March 18, 2014, Thursday)

    Link: www.seekingalpha.com/article/1725872 As the Fiscal Showdown Looms… www.seekingalpha.com/article/1187701 The Relationship Between A New Market Stress Index (MSI) And The Market.

    The Market Stress Index (MSI)

     

    REDS

    10Y TN

      

    DATE

    DI

    Yield

    MSS

    MSI

    10/16/2012

    3.5%

    1.720%

    *

    *

    10/17/2012

    3.4%

    1.810%

    0

    *

    10/18/2012

    3.5%

    1.830%

    100

    *

    10/19/2012

    3.2%

    1.770%

    50

    *

    10/22/2012

    2.6%

    1.800%

    0

    *

    10/23/2012

    2.3%

    1.760%

    50

    *

    10/24/2012

    1.8%

    1.770%

    0

    *

    10/25/2012

    1.6%

    1.830%

    0

    *

    10/26/2012

    1.5%

    1.750%

    50

    28.6

    10/29/2012

    1.8%

    1.740%

    50

    35.7

    10/30/2012

    1.6%

    1.720%

    50

    28.6

    10/31/2012

    2.3%

    1.690%

    50

    28.6

    11/1/2012

    1.6%

    1.710%

    0

    35.7

    11/2/2012

    0.6%

    1.730%

    0

    28.6

    11/5/2012

    1.3%

    1.680%

    50

    28.6

    11/6/2012

    0.4%

    1.740%

    0

    35.7

    11/7/2012

    0.7%

    1.630%

    50

    28.6

    11/8/2012

    1.2%

    1.630%

    100

    28.6

    11/9/2012

    1.4%

    1.610%

    50

    35.7

    11/12/2012

    0.6%

    1.610%

    50

    35.7

    11/13/2012

    0.4%

    1.590%

    50

    42.9

    11/14/2012

    1.0%

    1.590%

    100

    50.0

    11/15/2012

    0.7%

    1.589%

    50

    57.1

    12/19/2012

    3.1%

    1.800%

    50

    64.3

    12/20/2012

    2.5%

    1.800%

    0

    64.3

    12/21/2012

    2.6%

    1.750%

    50

    50.0

    12/24/2012

    2.0%

    1.770%

    50

    50.0

    12/26/2012

    1.7%

    1.760%

    50

    50.0

    12/27/2012

    1.9%

    1.710%

    50

    50.0

    12/28/2012

    1.9%

    1.710%

    50

    42.9

    12/31/2012

    1.1%

    1.760%

    0

    42.9

    1/2/2013

    1.1%

    1.840%

    0

    35.7

    1/3/2013

    1.1%

    1.899%

    0

    35.7

    1/4/2013

    1.3%

    1.910%

    100

    28.6

    1/7/2013

    0.9%

    1.900%

    50

    35.7

    1/8/2013

    0.7%

    1.870%

    50

    35.7

    1/9/2013

    0.7%

    1.850%

    50

    35.7

    1/10/2013

    0.9%

    1.890%

    100

    35.7

    1/11/2013

    0.9%

    1.880%

    50

    50.0

    1/14/2013

    1.7%

    1.860%

    50

    57.1

    1/15/2013

    2.5%

    1.830%

    50

    64.3

    1/16/2013

    2.7%

    1.820%

    50

    57.1

    1/17/2013

    3.1%

    1.880%

    100

    57.1

    1/18/2013

    3.4%

    1.840%

    50

    64.3

    1/22/2013

    3.9%

    1.835%

    50

    64.3

    1/23/2013

    4.2%

    1.830%

    50

    57.1

    1/24/2013

    3.6%

    1.840%

    0

    57.1

    1/25/2013

    3.4%

    1.950%

    0

    50.0

    1/28/2013

    3.3%

    1.870%

    0

    42.9

    1/29/2013

    2.7%

    1.990%

    0

    35.7

    1/30/2013

    3.1%

    2.010%

    100

    21.4

    1/31/2013

    3.3%

    1.990%

    50

    28.6

    2/1/2013

    3.2%

    2.010%

    0

    28.6

    2/4/2013

    3.3%

    1.970%

    50

    21.4

    2/5/2013

    2.9%

    2.020%

    0

    28.6

    2/6/2013

    3.5%

    1.968%

    50

    28.6

    2/7/2013

    3.2%

    1.950%

    50

    35.7

    2/8/2013

    3.3%

    1.951%

    100

    42.9

    2/11/2013

    3.6%

    1.946%

    50

    42.9

    2/12/2013

    3.8%

    1.980%

    100

    42.9

    2/13/2013

    3.8%

    2.179%

    0

    57.1

    2/14/2013

    3.9%

    2.000%

    50

    50.0

    2/15/2013

    3.6%

    2.010%

    0

    57.1

    2/19/2013

    3.3%

    2.030%

    0

    50.0

    2/20/2013

    3.2%

    2.210%

    0

    42.9

    2/21/2013

    2.7%

    1.980%

    50

    28.6

    2/22/2013

    3.7%

    1.970%

    50

    28.6

    2/25/2013

    4.4%

    1.895%

    100

    21.4

    2/26/2013

    4.5%

    1.879%

    50

    35.7

    2/27/2013

    3.9%

    1.903%

    0

    35.7

    2/28/2013

    3.6%

    1.888%

    50

    35.7

    3/1/2013

    3.1%

    1.853%

    50

    42.9

    3/4/2013

    3.0%

    1.877%

    0

    50.0

    3/5/2013

    2.8%

    1.894%

    0

    42.9

    3/6/2013

    2.8%

    1.894%

    0

    35.7

    3/7/2013

    2.9%

    1.991%

    100

    21.4

    3/8/2013

    2.6%

    2.056%

    0

    28.6

    8/11/2013

    2.4%

    2.056%

    0

    28.6

    3/12/2013

    2.8%

    2.023%

    50

    21.4

    3/13/2013

    2.5%

    2.021%

    50

    21.4

    3/14/2013

    3.5%

    2.033%

    100

    28.6

    3/15/2013

    3.0%

    1.996%

    50

    42.9

    3/18/2013

    3.4%

    1.956%

    50

    50.0

    3/19/2013

    3.4%

    1.908%

    50

    42.9

    3/20/2013

    3.1%

    1.937%

    0

    50.0

    3/21/2013

    3.2%

    1.932%

    50

    50.0

    3/22/2013

    2.9%

    1.915%

    50

    50.0

    3/25/2013

    2.9%

    1.915%

    0

    50.0

    3/26/2013

    2.8%

    1.906%

    50

    35.7

    3/27/2013

    3.3%

    1.851%

    50

    35.7

    8/28/2013

    3.3%

    1.851%

    50

    35.7

    4/1/2013

    3.4%

    1.840%

    50

    35.7

    4/2/2013

    3.2%

    1.861%

    0

    42.9

    4/3/2013

    3.2%

    1.861%

    50

    35.7

    4/4/2013

    3.7%

    1.759%

    50

    35.7

    4/5/2013

    4.2%

    1.694%

    50

    42.9

    4/8/2013

    4.0%

    1.732%

    0

    42.9

    4/9/2013

    4.0%

    1.747%

    0

    35.7

    4/10/2013

    3.5%

    1.805%

    0

    28.6

    4/11/2013

    4.4%

    1.791%

    50

    21.4

    4/12/2013

    4.0%

    1.721%

    50

    28.6

    4/15/2013

    4.3%

    1.702%

    50

    28.6

    4/16/2013

    4.0%

    1.719%

    0

    28.6

    4/17/2013

    3.4%

    1.704%

    50

    21.4

    4/18/2013

    4.1%

    1.685%

    50

    28.6

    4/19/2013

    4.2%

    1.703%

    100

    35.7

    4/22/2013

    4.5%

    1.698%

    50

    50.0

    4/23/2013

    4.4%

    1.698%

    0

    50.0

    4/24/2013

    4.8%

    1.698%

    50

    42.9

    4/25/2013

    4.4%

    1.711%

    0

    42.9

    4/26/2013

    5.3%

    1.663%

    50

    42.9

    4/29/2013

    6.0%

    1.670%

    100

    42.9

    4/30/2013

    6.7%

    1.675%

    100

    50.0

    5/1/2013

    6.5%

    1.639%

    50

    50.0

    5/2/2013

    6.2%

    1.631%

    50

    50.0

    5/3/2013

    5.2%

    1.752%

    0

    57.1

    5/6/2013

    5.0%

    1.771%

    0

    50.0

    5/7/2013

    5.4%

    1.783%

    100

    50.0

    5/8/2013

    5.8%

    1.760%

    50

    57.1

    5/9/2013

    5.2%

    1.830%

    0

    50.0

    5/10/2013

    4.4%

    1.900%

    0

    35.7

    5/13/2013

    4.0%

    1.923%

    0

    28.6

    5/14/2013

    4.5%

    1.952%

    100

    21.4

    5/15/2013

    4.5%

    1.943%

    50

    35.7

    5/16/2013

    4.6%

    1.865%

    50

    42.9

    5/17/2013

    4.1%

    1.949%

    0

    35.7

    5/20/2013

    4.1%

    1.965%

    0

    28.6

    5/21/2013

    4.2%

    1.944%

    50

    28.6

    5/22/2013

    3.9%

    2.030%

    0

    35.7

    5/23/2013

    3.9%

    2.023%

    50

    35.7

    5/24/2013

    2.8%

    2.011%

    50

    28.6

    5/28/2013

    0.8%

    2.135%

    0

    28.6

    5/29/2013

    1.2%

    2.124%

    50

    21.4

    5/30/2013

    1.6%

    2.124%

    50

    28.6

    5/31/2013

    1.5%

    2.164%

    0

    35.7

    6/3/2013

    1.3%

    2.134%

    50

    28.6

    3/4/1900

    0.6%

    2.137%

    0

    35.7

    6/5/2013

    0.8%

    2.100%

    50

    28.6

    6/6/2013

    0.7%

    2.075%

    50

    28.6

    6/7/2013

    -0.1%

    2.161%

    0

    35.7

    6/10/2013

    -0.2%

    2.215%

    0

    28.6

    6/11/2013

    -0.2%

    2.195%

    50

    21.4

    6/12/2013

    0.0%

    2.230%

    100

    28.6

    6/13/2013

    -0.2%

    2.170%

    50

    35.7

    6/14/2013

    -0.4%

    2.126%

    50

    42.9

    6/17/2013

    -0.7%

    2.171%

    0

    42.9

    6/18/2013

    -1.1%

    2.182%

    0

    35.7

    6/19/2013

    -1.8%

    2.311%

    0

    35.7

    6/20/2013

    -2.0%

    2.419%

    0

    35.7

    6/21/2013

    -2.0%

    2.514%

    0

    28.6

    6/24/2013

    -2.2%

    2.548%

    0

    14.3

    6/25/2013

    -1.9%

    2.589%

    100

    7.1

    6/26/2013

    -1.3%

    2.539%

    50

    14.3

    6/27/2013

    -1.1%

    2.486%

    50

    21.4

    6/28/2013

    -1.2%

    2.478%

    50

    28.6

    7/1/2013

    -0.9%

    2.490%

    100

    35.7

    7/2/2013

    -0.9%

    2.469%

    50

    50.0

    7/3/2013

    -1.2%

    2.501%

    0

    57.1

    7/5/2013

    -2.3%

    2.715%

    0

    57.1

    7/8/2013

    -1.1%

    2.645%

    50

    42.9

    7/9/2013

    -1.0%

    2.630%

    50

    42.9

    7/10/2013

    -1.1%

    2.680%

    0

    42.9

    7/11/2013

    -1.2%

    2.574%

    50

    35.7

    7/12/2013

    -1.2%

    2.601%

    0

    28.6

    7/15/2013

    -0.6%

    2.556%

    0

    21.4

    7/16/2013

    -0.1%

    2.522%

    50

    21.4

    7/17/2013

    0.8%

    2.491%

    50

    28.6

    7/18/2013

    0.5%

    2.534%

    0

    28.6

    7/19/2013

    1.2%

    2.491%

    50

    21.4

    7/22/2013

    2.0%

    2.488%

    50

    28.6

    7/23/2013

    3.1%

    2.516%

    100

    28.6

    7/24/2013

    3.7%

    2.588%

    100

    42.9

    7/25/2013

    3.5%

    2.607%

    50

    57.1

    7/26/2013

    3.2%

    2.561%

    50

    57.1

    7/29/2013

    2.6%

    2.585%

    0

    57.1

    7/30/2013

    2.4%

    2.603%

    0

    57.1

    7/31/2013

    3.1%

    2.593%

    50

    50.0

    8/1/2013

    2.2%

    2.723%

    0

    50.0

    8/2/2013

    3.0%

    2.602%

    50

    35.7

    8/5/2013

    2.6%

    2.640%

    0

    28.6

    8/6/2013

    2.0%

    2.642%

    0

    21.4

    8/7/2013

    2.5%

    2.600%

    100

    14.3

    8/8/2013

    2.9%

    2.587%

    50

    28.6

    8/9/2013

    3.1%

    2.580%

    50

    35.7

    8/12/2013

    2.6%

    2.605%

    0

    35.7

    8/13/2013

    2.1%

    2.715%

    0

    35.7

    8/14/2013

    1.8%

    2.712%

    50

    28.6

    8/15/2013

    1.8%

    2.755%

    0

    35.7

    8/16/2013

    1.3%

    2.829%

    0

    35.7

    8/19/2013

    1.3%

    2.829%

    0

    21.4

    8/20/2013

    0.3%

    2.814%

    50

    14.3

    8/21/2013

    0.1%

    2.860%

    0

    14.3

    8/22/2013

    -0.6%

    2.901%

    0

    14.3

    8/23/2013

    0.5%

    2.818%

    50

    14.3

    8/26/2013

    0.0%

    2.805%

    50

    14.3

    8/27/2013

    -0.1%

    2.721%

    50

    21.4

    8/28/2013

    1.5%

    2.782%

    100

    28.6

    8/29/2013

    2.1%

    2.751%

    50

    42.9

    8/30/2013

    1.2%

    2.749%

    50

    42.9

    9/3/2013

    2.6%

    2.848%

    100

    50.0

    9/4/2013

    2.3%

    2.897%

    100

    64.3

    9/5/2013

    1.5%

    2.979%

    0

    71.4

    9/6/2013

    1.6%

    2.938%

    50

    64.3

    9/9/2013

    1.5%

    2.897%

    50

    64.3

    9/10/2013

    0.5%

    2.959%

    0

    57.1

    9/11/2013

    1.1%

    2.920%

    50

    50.0

    9/12/2013

    0.6%

    2.907%

    50

    50.0

    9/13/2013

    1.7%

    2.898%

    50

    42.9

    9/16/2013

    1.6%

    2.874%

    50

    35.7

    9/17/2013

    2.6%

    2.853%

    50

    42.9

    9/18/2013

    2.7%

    2.708%

    50

    42.9

    9/19/2013

    2.3%

    2.750%

    0

    42.9

    9/20/2013

    1.8%

    2.732%

    50

    42.9

    9/23/2013

    1.0%

    2.714%

    50

    42.9

    9/24/2013

    1.3%

    2.653%

    50

    42.9

    9/25/2013

    1.3%

    2.614%

    50

    42.9

    9/26/2013

    0.7%

    2.643%

    0

    42.9

    9/27/2013

    1.1%

    2.619%

    50

    35.7

    9/30/2013

    1.5%

    2.615%

    50

    35.7

    10/1/2013

    1.4%

    2.646%

    0

    42.9

    10/2/2013

    1.8%

    2.626%

    50

    35.7

    10/3/2013

    2.6%

    2.606%

    50

    35.7

    10/4/2013

    1.7%

    2.652%

    0

    35.7

    10/7/2013

    2.2%

    2.634%

    50

    28.6

    10/8/2013

    2.4%

    2.636%

    100

    35.7

    10/9/2013

    2.3%

    2.650%

    50

    42.9

    10/10/2013

    2.1%

    2.680%

    0

    42.9

    10/11/2013

    2.1%

    2.682%

    0

    42.9

    10/14/2013

    2.3%

    2.691%

    100

    35.7

    10/15/2013

    2.1%

    2.720%

    0

    42.9

    10/16/2013

    1.6%

    2.671%

    50

    42.9

    10/17/2013

    2.6%

    2.587%

    0

    42.9

    10/18/2013

    3.2%

    2.589%

    50

    28.6

    10/21/2013

    2.8%

    2.609%

    0

    28.6

    10/22/2013

    2.9%

    2.512%

    50

    28.6

    10/23/2013

    2.5%

    2.485%

    50

    35.7

    10/24/2013

    2.4%

    2.522%

    0

    28.6

    10/25/2013

    2.5%

    2.503%

    50

    28.6

    10/28/2013

    2.5%

    2.512%

    0

    28.6

    10/29/2013

    2.8%

    2.507%

    50

    28.6

    10/30/2013

    2.5%

    2.530%

    0

    28.6

    10/31/2013

    2.4%

    2.542%

    0

    28.6

    11/1/2013

    2.5%

    2.620%

    50

    21.4

    11/4/2013

    1.8%

    2.602%

    50

    21.4

    11/5/2013

    1.0%

    2.662%

    0

    28.6

    11/6/2013

    1.2%

    2.640%

    50

    21.4

    11/7/2013

    1.6%

    2.613%

    50

    28.6

    11/8/2013

    0.5%

    2.746%

    0

    28.6

    11/11/2013

    -0.2%

    2.755%

    0

    28.6

    11/12/2013

    -0.5%

    2.768%

    0

    28.6

    11/13/2013

    -0.6%

    2.725%

    0

    21.4

    11/14/2013

    -0.2%

    2.702%

    50

    14.3

    11/15/2013

    -0.5%

    2.709%

    0

    21.4

    11/18/2013

    -0.5%

    2.678%

    0

    14.3

    11/19/2013

    -1.0%

    2.712%

    0

    7.1

    11/20/2013

    0.1%

    2.792%

    100

    7.1

    11/21/2013

    0.4%

    2.784%

    50

    21.4

    11/22/2013

    -0.1%

    2.752%

    50

    28.6

    11/25/2013

    0.9%

    2.741%

    50

    35.7

    11/26/2013

    0.5%

    2.696%

    50

    35.7

    11/27/2013

    0.8%

    2.736%

    50

    42.9

    11/29/2013

    2.2%

    2.741%

    100

    50.0

    12/2/2013

    1.5%

    2.801%

    0

    64.3

    12/3/2013

    1.2%

    2.775%

    50

    50.0

    12/4/2013

    2.1%

    2.841%

    100

    50.0

    12/5/2013

    1.1%

    2.862%

    50

    57.1

    12/6/2013

    1.8%

    2.883%

    100

    57.1

    12/9/2013

    2.7%

    2.857%

    50

    64.3

    12/10/2013

    2.0%

    2.797%

    0

    64.3

    12/11/2013

    3.3%

    2.844%

    100

    50.0

    12/12/2013

    2.4%

    2.877%

    50

    64.3

    12/13/2013

    2.6%

    2.868%

    50

    64.3

    12/16/2013

    1.7%

    2.877%

    0

    57.1

    12/17/2013

    2.1%

    2.843%

    50

    50.0

    12/18/2013

    1.4%

    2.885%

    0

    42.9

    12/19/2013

    2.2%

    2.925%

    100

    35.7

    12/20/2013

    1.4%

    2.887%

    50

    50.0

    12/23/2013

    0.5%

    2.929%

    0

    42.9

    12/24/2013

    0.6%

    2.983%

    100

    35.7

    12/26/2013

    -0.4%

    2.990%

    0

    42.9

    12/27/2013

    -0.7%

    3.060%

    0

    42.9

    12/30/2014

    -0.9%

    2.976%

    50

    35.7

    12/31/2014

    -0.9%

    3.026%

    0

    42.9

    1/2/2014

    -0.4%

    2.985%

    50

    28.6

    1/3/2014

    0.1%

    2.995%

    100

    28.6

    1/5/2014

    0.9%

    2.961%

    50

    42.9

    1/7/2014

    1.5%

    2.937%

    100

    35.7

    1/8/2014

    0.4%

    2.993%

    0

    50.0

    1/9/2014

    -0.3%

    2.963%

    50

    50.0

    1/10/2014

    1.8%

    2.860%

    50

    50.0

    1/13/2014

    2.8%

    2.807%

    50

    57.1

    1/14/2014

    2.5%

    2.869%

    0

    57.1

    1/15/2014

    1.0%

    2.884%

    0

    42.9

    1/16/2014

    2.4%

    2.842%

    50

    35.7

    1/17/2014

    2.1%

    2.827%

    50

    28.6

    1/21/2014

    4.1%

    2.825%

    50

    35.7

    1/22/2014

    4.2%

    2.860%

    100

    35.7

    1/23/2014

    4.6%

    2.773%

    50

    42.9

    1/24/2014

    5.5%

    2.735%

    50

    42.9

    1/27/2014

    4.8%

    2.766%

    50

    50.0

    1/28/2014

    4.3%

    2.745%

    50

    57.1

    1/29/2014

    5.1%

    2.675%

    50

    57.1

    1/30/2014

    3.7%

    2.673%

    50

    57.1

    1/31/2014

    3.7%

    2.668%

    50

    57.1

    2/3/2014

    4.0%

    2.581%

    0

    50.0

    2/4/2014

    5.4%

    2.624%

    100

    42.9

    2/5/2014

    4.4%

    2.667%

    0

    50.0

    2/6/2014

    3.9%

    2.702%

    0

    42.9

    2/7/2014

    3.4%

    2.675%

    50

    35.7

    2/10/2014

    3.3%

    2.678%

    0

    35.7

    2/11/2014

    6.6%

    2.719%

    100

    28.6

    2/12/2014

    6.2%

    2.763%

    0

    35.7

    2/13/2014

    5.6%

    2.730%

    50

    35.7

    2/14/2014

    3.8%

    2.746%

    0

    28.6

    2/18/2014

    6.2%

    2.711%

    50

    28.6

    2/19/2014

    6.8%

    2.734%

    100

    35.7

    2/20/2014

    6.2%

    2.754%

    0

    42.9

    2/21/2014

    6.5%

    2.734%

    100

    42.9

    2/24/2014

    7.0%

    2.750%

    100

    42.9

    2/25/2014

    6.5%

    2.701%

    50

    57.1

    2/26/2014

    6.4%

    2.673%

    50

    57.1

    2/27/2014

    7.0%

    2.642%

    50

    64.3

    2/28/2014

    6.7%

    2.658%

    0

    64.3

    3/3/2014

    6.4%

    2.607%

    50

    50.0

    3/4/2014

    5.8%

    2.691%

    0

    57.1

    3/5/2014

    6.2%

    2.698%

    100

    42.9

    3/5/2014

    6.3%

    2.737%

    100

    42.9

    3/7/2014

    5.7%

    2.790%

    0

    50.0

    3/10/2014

    5.3%

    2.780%

    50

    42.9

    3/11/2014

    3.4%

    2.766%

    50

    42.9

    3/12/2014

    4.5%

    2.726%

    50

    50.0

    3/13/2014

    4.9%

    2.653%

    50

    50.0

    3/14/2014

    5.1%

    2.645%

    50

    57.1

    3/17/2014

    4.0%

    2.699%

    0

    50.0

    3/18/2014

    4.4%

    2.681%

    50

    35.7

    3/19/2014

    *

    *

    *

    35.7

         

    NOTE

    REDS = The RED Spread

    MSS = Market Stress Score

    MSI = Market Stress Index

    maMSI = 7-day-MA of Market Stress Index

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Comments (2)
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  • Ruben12345
    , contributor
    Comments (381) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. Help me a little. Your conclusions?
    29 Dec 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • O. Young Kwon
    , contributor
    Comments (933) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ Ruben12345

     

    The MSI has been pretty high readings amid multiple uncertainties and worries about (1) budget negotiations (2) the timing and the magnitude of the Fed’s tapering, and (3) some tech IPO booms. Now these factors have become settled down so that the market has rallied through holidays sessions. This trend is likely to continue in the new year with relatively low MSIs. Eye on the so-called January effect.

     

    O. Young Kwon
    29 Dec 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
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