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Brad Kenagy
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History/Trading Style: I have been investing for 6 years. The subjects I focus primarily on are building custom portfolio's of ETF's, Technical analysis of stocks and ETF's, and value investing, as well as other topics.
  • Seeking Alpha Trading Survivor Contest 206 comments
    Dec 12, 2012 1:04 PM | about stocks: SPY

    Contest Rules

    Every person that enters picks 1 stock/ETF at the beginning of the month. Picks should be posted in the comment section of this instablog post And each round of the contest lasts one month.

    Stock/ETF Selection rules:

    1. Only LONG or SHORT a stock, and No shorting a ETF.
    2. Price of atleast $1/share
    3. For stock they must have a market cap of atleast $100 million
    4. Traded on the NYSE, NASDAQ or AMEX
    5. No leveraged ETFs
    6. No Closed-End-Funds

    To advance to the next round (month) here would be the rules:

    • Your stock pick MUST have a higher return than that of the (SPY).
    • Your stock pick MUST have a positive return for the month.

    So, only the best stock pickers will advance, the contest would keep going until there is 1 winner.

    The goal is to highlight the best stock pickers on seeking alpha who necessarily dont have a huge number of followers but have real stock picking skills.

    Below are two tables, the first the table of players from January, and the second is a table with everyone who made it to the next round with their picks and opening prices [open prices retrieved from Yahoo Finance]

    February Results:

    Bill MauerShortKERX26.43%
    Matt SchillingLongIMUC20.95%
    Brad KenagyLongMDRX14.09%
    Chasing the VigLongHLF10.72%
    Jim Van NaseumShortFSLR9.05%
    E.W. BarnabaLongZTS6.19%



    SA User NameLong/Short?SymbolCompanyStart Price
    EW BarnabaShortBBYBest BUY Co Inc17.38
    Bill MauerShortHGSHChina Hgs Real Estate Inc5.04
    Matt SchillingLongGLWCorning Inc12.47
    realornotShortAPOLApollo Group Inc16.81
    Chasing the VigLongHLFHerbalife Ltd39.66
    ModernistShortVRNGVringo Inc3.08
    mktlab68LongNTINorthern Tier Energy LP28.9
    Brad KenagyLongAGUAgrium Inc104.16
    Jim Van NaseumShortFSLRFirst Solar Inc25.49
      SPYSPDR S&P 500151.09

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Stocks: SPY
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Comments (206)
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  • Neat idea Brad. I will go long XIN for the purposes of this contest. Will check back January 1st, I guess.
    12 Dec 2012, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • I am asking because it seems my fate in this contest could rely on one good/bad tick on the last day...


    Shouldn't returns be measured from the last day of the previous month's close? XIN gapped higher to 3.65 at the open on January 2nd...
    29 Jan 2013, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thank you for your comment. That is not the way I am running the contest. I chose to use the open for the first day of the month, so its as if you were buying at the open on the first day of the month.
    29 Jan 2013, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • Fair enough. I will keep my fingers crossed over the next couple days.
    29 Jan 2013, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • If I'm still alive tomorrow, I choose BTU for the month of February.
    31 Jan 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Alright got it down.
    31 Jan 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » The Contest starts January 1st, so good luck. If you want to change your pick before the first just let me know.


    Thank you for your entry,


    12 Dec 2012, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • I'll get in. The worst that can happen is my picks subject me to ridicule. I get ridiculed by my wife and kids all the time. I'm used to it.


    Send a message though at beginning of month so I don;t forget. Thanks for the work. Joe
    13 Dec 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Will do, I will make sure I send out a message the last week of December to remind everyone.
    13 Dec 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Nice idea. Do dividends count? If so, how?
    13 Dec 2012, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thank you for your comment, I was not planning on including dividends for simplicity. I just planned on using Open/Close data from yahoo finance to calculate returns.
    13 Dec 2012, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • I got few good ones!
    13 Dec 2012, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • Don't mind me, just dropping a comment so's I can find this page easily later on.


    Good idea, BTW.
    14 Dec 2012, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thank you for the comment, am looking forward to the contest.
    14 Dec 2012, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • @Brad Kenagy;
    Here I have one-of-the-good-one...
    Flagstar Bancorp Inc. (FBC)
    You could have bought at under $5.00 in December 2011
    Now, it is reaching near $20.00 in December 2012
    Hope your guys are as lucky as I am.
    15 Dec 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Hey everyone!, just a reminder that if you are interested in the contest I am running, your pick needs to be in before the open on January 1st. You can submit your stock/etf pick in the comment section of this instablog.
    26 Dec 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • short MSFT
    26 Dec 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • changed. long GLRE.
    1 Jan 2013, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • Sounds like fun, put me down for Telular (WRLS)
    26 Dec 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thank you for your picks, David and Modernist, I got them down. Also, if you know of any other of your followers that would be interested that would be great to be able to more people in the contest.
    26 Dec 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Brad, you should put out a stocktalk comment on the contest.
    26 Dec 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thank you for the idea David I will look into that.
    26 Dec 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • My pick is SHORT PIR (Pier 1 Imports)
    26 Dec 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Long AIG
    26 Dec 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Long WTW.
    26 Dec 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • SODA
    26 Dec 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Josh, are you picking, Long or Short? SODA
    26 Dec 2012, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • Long SODA for January at least.
    26 Dec 2012, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Alright got it, thank you.
    26 Dec 2012, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • Alright. Long HLF.
    27 Dec 2012, 04:22 AM Reply Like
  • long NVR
    27 Dec 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Cool, so counting myself thats 10 entries, I would love to get anywhere from 50-100 entries, I'll keep spreading the word.


    Thank you
    27 Dec 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • long soda with josh
    27 Dec 2012, 11:39 PM Reply Like
  • long ISRG.
    28 Dec 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • Hey Brad, I'll be going long BGMD
    28 Dec 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Sorry matt BGMD is not eligible, because it has a market cap of less than $100 million.
    28 Dec 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Long GTAT.
    28 Dec 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Wow, interesting bet. At these levels, it just might work, It will not take much to get 5-10% raise (or drop). good luck.


    Long: GTAT (with a much higher cost basis than $3.18)
    4 Jan 2013, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • lol didn't even realize that - I'll go DNDN
    28 Dec 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Long DNDN
    28 Dec 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » K got them down.
    29 Dec 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • I'll short PCRX
    30 Dec 2012, 05:10 AM Reply Like
  • Long SNTS, provided its market cap meets the criteria.
    30 Dec 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » mrcoleslaw, Yes SNTS meets the Market Cap Criteria, SNTS Mkt Cap is $679 Million and min Mkt cap for contest is $100 Million.
    30 Dec 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Long XIV
    30 Dec 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Ohh long XIV will be a winner. Short UVXY would almost always be a better pick though.
    30 Dec 2012, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » There is no Shorting ETF's in this contest, only Long/Short a stock, or Long an ETF
    30 Dec 2012, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • I wanted to short UVXY so bad, but the contest rules forbid it.


    It's not a guaranteed win though. XIV will explode to the upside once the fiscal cliff is resolved. But it could all come crashing down again if there's still no resolution to the debt ceiling by the end of the month.


    I just hope the VIX is still above 20 by the time the cash markets open on Wednesday.
    31 Dec 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • due too cliff issues, switching my soda pick to short uvxy
    30 Dec 2012, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Long ZNGA
    30 Dec 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • oops, looks like rules wont allow leveraged etf or shorting of them' Will switch to long XIV
    30 Dec 2012, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Alright dd2020dd, I got your switch down to Long XIV, and got izzy and E.W. picks


    Just a reminder to everyone, if you want you can feel free to switch your pick as long as its before the open on January 2nd since there is no trading on the 1st of January.
    30 Dec 2012, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • If I could do a small cap I'd do LTRX
    1 Jan 2013, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • thank you. I have to travel on the 1st so I will enter my pick tomorrow.


    Realornot !!!
    30 Dec 2012, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Cool, that works, have fun!
    30 Dec 2012, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Supreme on $RIMM LONG


    Thank you!
    31 Dec 2012, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • Long $XIV before lunch
    31 Dec 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » The contest doesn't start until the open on January 2nd, so do you want your pick to be long XIV for the entire month of January? There are already two other people with that pick so I would encourage you to pick another Stock/ETF.
    31 Dec 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • I don't wish the join the contest I was just posting I went long $XIV today and that I support the players who like $XIV. Sorry for the confusion and good luck to all the players!
    31 Dec 2012, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Oh ok cool, that you for the clarification. Good luck with your trade.
    31 Dec 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • long KMP
    31 Dec 2012, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • I am going to go with: Corning Inc. (GLW) -NYSE, might take longer than a month, we will see.
    31 Dec 2012, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • Okay, I'll probably lose with this one.


    But since this is Seeking Alpha and noone else has done so:


    short AMZN.


    Has to work one of these days...
    31 Dec 2012, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • Hi Brad -- My pick is long EZPW
    1 Jan 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Is the starting point Monday's closing price? Some guy said he was hoping for a gap down open to give him a better starting point in your contest.
    1 Jan 2013, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • That guy would be me, and I'm almost certain that the starting point is Wednesday's opening price. Although I'm not hoping for a gap down so much as I'm hoping it doesn't gap up at the open and shave a few percentage points off of my gain for the month. I'm assuming the results of the month will be calculated by comparing the percentage gain or loss from the open on the first day of trading and the close of the last.


    I may be mistaken, but I'm pretty sure that's how it works.
    1 Jan 2013, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • I don't really care which way this contest does it, but I find it interesting you'd assume, much less be certain, it's measured from the open on the 2nd. When they say "the S&P is up 4% on the year" they're measuring from the 12/31 close as far as I know, not from the 1/2 open.
    1 Jan 2013, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • You're right that index returns and such are calculated from close to close. I'm not sure where I got the idea that we'd use the opening price for the contest, but apparently that's how it's happening. As long as we calculate the S&P's return the same way we do the stock picks, it shouldn't matter too much.


    I'd be fine either way though. In fact, I suspect that I'll be better off for the contest if we use the closing price from Monday, but I'll abide by whatever Brad decides.
    2 Jan 2013, 12:00 AM Reply Like


    Catalyst is a 1/15 court date where it looks like there is a good chance Apple will settle on damages and an ongoing royalty on all the 4G technology that they stole. Last month the judge asked Apple to compile the sales figures to year end. They won a big judgment in 2011 vs Microsoft. They are suing CSCO in March.
    1 Jan 2013, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • Brad-


    I'm seeing a lot of entries from commenters who are not contributors: which is really cool.


    But perhaps we should have two divisions? We end up with a champion contributor, a champion civilian (for lack of a better term) player, and a top overall?


    I'd call it pro-am, but in all honesty, I suspect the "civilians" will do better!
    1 Jan 2013, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thank you for your comment Peter I will look into it.




    Also I have to make my pick.... Long BGCP
    1 Jan 2013, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • I agree with the sentiment above.


    If you are running a contest that tracks a month's performance, you should start with the end price on 12/31.


    Especially given the huge upswing we saw on Wednesday's open.


    30 minutes into the day, my stock is up 2.53% and the SPY is up 2.10%, and yet, I am actually trailing the index because my stock has declined since the open, but is still up more than the index.


    If you are going to run a legit contest, I think you have to do 12/31 close. Seriously, right now, if you picked AAPL (regardless of whether anyone did), you are down 1% and yet AAPL is up 3% on the day...
    2 Jan 2013, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • I'm going to go ahead and join because this looks like a great contest. Long FUN
    2 Jan 2013, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I have added everyone's picks and opening prices in a table above.


    Good Luck everyone!!
    2 Jan 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Brad, please see my comment last night which changed my pick to long GLRE. Sorry for inconvenience.
    2 Jan 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thank you for spotting my mistake didn't see that you changed, I will change it now.
    2 Jan 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » So far after 1 day of trading 16 out of the 27 entries had a positive return, and outperformed the SPY, great start for many!
    2 Jan 2013, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • I wonder how many would have done both had we used the 12/31 close. Just curious...
    2 Jan 2013, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I could look, but all picks would have had to been made before the close on the 31st.
    2 Jan 2013, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • Would it be difficult, I don't think it really would be for such a small number, to have those based off the 12/31 prices?
    2 Jan 2013, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • Brad,


    I missed the entry date for your contest, but would still like to enter, if possible, using a 1/2/13 close price on TQQQ of 56.60. My recommendation of TQQQ by SA published article Tantalizing Forecasts Of 5 ETFs, A Political ... on 12/31/12 would have been nicer, but that's hardly fair now... possible?
    3 Jan 2013, 02:40 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Peter thank you for your comment. I'm sorry but I will decline a entry after the deadline. Also, I will for sure be running another contest in the future when this one concludes so I will make sure to message you before the start of that contest.
    3 Jan 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • I still don't understand why we are using the Wednesday open. That was not stipulated in the original post and is not the typical way performance is measured.


    I agree that it should be based on 12/31 closing price.
    4 Jan 2013, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  • For what it's worth, I feel your pain. If we used the 12/31 open, I'd be up 10%. But XIV gapped up at the open on Wednesday like I feared it would, and as such I'm only up 1.5% according to the contest's rules.


    But we're all playing on the same field, and as long as the S&P's returns are calculated the same way, it shouldn't matter too much in the long run.
    4 Jan 2013, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Sorry Josh, I am not going to change it. I did state that I would use the open price in my forum post, but I just forgot to transfer that minor detail to my instablog, I apologize for forgetting to transfer over that one detail:


    "Start date will be open of trading on the first trading day in January, and end with the close on the last trading day of January."

    4 Jan 2013, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » It was a big start to the contest this week. 17 out of the 27 entries posted a positive return, and a higher return than the (SPY), but there is still the rest of the month to go. Below is the list of the top 5 leaders after the first week.


    SA Username Symbol % Gain MTD


    Matt Schilling (DNDN) 9.87%
    Chasing the Vig (HLF) 9.34%
    Ocean Man (WTW) 8.79%
    izzygemini (ZNGA) 8.68%
    Joe Kelly (GTAT) 8.49%


    SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) 0.87%
    4 Jan 2013, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Terrific idea here, Brad! I wish I could have been in at the start. If it's not too late I'll go long ANW at the price I posted on Stocktalks today "Buy to open ANW @ 6.13"
    4 Jan 2013, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Boatyzaffa, I'm sorry but I will decline a entry after the deadline. Also, I will for sure be running another contest in the future when this one concludes so I will make sure to message you before the start of that contest.
    5 Jan 2013, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • Wish I could have entered, ANW ended at a 10.27% return from my Jan 4th entry. So Brad, no new competitors for February?
    31 Jan 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » No new contest for February, I will be working on possibly starting a similar contest at the beginning of March. I was really busy this month and didn't have time to figure out stuff for a separate contest. When I do I will let you know for sure.


    31 Jan 2013, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Leaders after week 2 of the contest:


    SA Username Symbol % Gain MTD


    Chasing the Vig (HLF) 18.26%
    mktlab68 (VHC) 16.37%
    Matt Schilling (DNDN) 12.80%
    Ocean Man (WTW) 10.33%
    realornot (RIMM) 9.98%


    SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) 1.35%
    11 Jan 2013, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • wow love this idea i will certaintly be following this contest good luck everyone
    11 Jan 2013, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • I love this idea and the discussions so far. Please let me know when you would be running this again.
    17 Jan 2013, 05:32 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Top 5 Players so far. Some great ALPHA so far. So far, out of the 27 entrants, 15 have met both the two criteria of a positive return, and outperform the SPY. We will see what the numbers look like at the end of the month.


    Username Symbol % Gain MTD
    Chasing the Vig (HLF) 28.55%
    realornot (RIMM) 28.47%
    dd2020dd (XIV) 18.01%
    E.W. Barnaba (XIV) 18.01%
    Matt Schilling (DNDN) 15.36%


    SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) 2.22%
    18 Jan 2013, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • ISRG - best earnings reporter ever?
    23 Jan 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » ISRG has done pretty well, here is a list of other stocks that I think do well at earnings: Autozone (AZO) , Celgene (CELG), Monsanto (MON), Precision Cast Parts (PCP).
    23 Jan 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » This upcoming week is the last week of the first round of the contest. Because the last day of January is on Thursday, ALL PICKS FOR ROUND 2, WILL NEED TO BE IN BEFORE THE OPEN ON FRIDAY FEBRUARY 1st.


    As a group we are doing pretty good, with 17 out of 27 people with a positive return and beating the SPY.


    Username Symbol % Gain MTD
    realornot RIMM 42.25%
    Chasing the Vig HLF 28.81%
    dd2020dd XIV 22.95%
    E.W. Barnaba XIV 22.95%
    mktlab68 VHC 18.57%


    SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF SPY 3.54%
    25 Jan 2013, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • Brad,
    does VXX meet the requirements? Am considering for next month
    25 Jan 2013, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Yes VXX meets the requirements, its an ETF and in not leveraged.
    25 Jan 2013, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • I believe the SPY will underperform in February. Perhaps raise the stakes? ='D
    25 Jan 2013, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » As I stated above, the picks for the month of February need to be in by the open on Feb. 1st. So I will have EVERYONE post their picks, just to make sure everyone gets their picks in, in case people are right on the fringe of making it like I am.


    minhle1291: January has been a great month so far for stocks, my finance teacher taught me this saying: "Good investors can pick winners when the market is rising, GREAT investors can pick stocks that outperform when the market is falling."


    We are way due for a pullback I think.
    25 Jan 2013, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • and some of us can't pick a stock in an up market! Fun contest.
    29 Jan 2013, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Reminder!! Everyone please submit your picks for the second month of the contest.


    Here is the leaderboard so far:


    realornot RIMM 31.22%
    dd2020dd XIV 19.88%
    E.W. Barnaba XIV 19.88%
    mktlab68 VHC 19.25%
    Chasing the Vig HLF 18.26%
    izzygemini ZNGA 17.36%
    Matt Schilling DNDN 15.72%
    mrcoleslaw SNTS 14.63%
    David Klein WRLS 14.49%
    Bill Mauer ISRG 14.10%
    allupside EZPW 12.49%
    Josh Krause SODA 10.28%
    soundstock KMP 9.97%
    Welt FUN 9.66%
    Ypa Finance NVR 9.52%
    Tom Guttenberger XIN 4.11%
    Brad Kenagy BGCP 3.67%
    Parabana Miterjee BBBY 3.61%
    Ghosts Of Kariela AIG 2.78%
    Joe Kelly GTAT 1.26%
    Ocean Man WTW 0.71%
    Modernist GLRE 0.00%
    Zach Tripp GLW -6.03%
    Jim Van Naseum FSLR -7.48%
    Seth Walters PIR -7.66%
    Peter Larson AMZN -7.67%
    Brian L.Wilson PCRX -11.66%
    28 Jan 2013, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • I'm second to last! U-S-A U-S-A!


    Also, looks like commenters are whopping contributors in general. The bottom seven finishers are all contributors. Five of the top seven are commenters.


    Picks for Feb.


    The only way I can stay in is if Amazon crashes and burns 10+% in the next two days. But since they announce earnings tomorrow, that could happen. If it does, I'll take long BKS.


    Also, whether I'm in or not, I predict ALL contributors will be knocked out by the end of March. Commenters will keep going through May.
    28 Jan 2013, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • Also depends on small vs. large and ETF. A lot of the top names are either smaller or ETFs. Of the names up 10% or more, only two have a market cap of more than $5 billion. RIMM at $8.3 billion and ISRG which is over $23 billion. If this were a market cap gain game, ISRG would be ahead!
    28 Jan 2013, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • ETFs are a great way to play these sort of contests, for sure. Upside doesn't matter, downside doesn't matter, just consistent calendar performance.


    There's a way to "cheat" in this contest as well- short a stock that is going ex-dividend with a substantial payout. Short HTCO, for example.


    But noone has done that. Good job, all.
    29 Jan 2013, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Here is a link to a very compelling article on shorting Amazon I thought you would be interested in.

    29 Jan 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Already saw it, thanks.


    Looks like another miss and rally, like the last three or four earnings reports. So I'm out of the competition.


    I stopped writing short Amazon articles because there was too much competition on the fundamental side, and because I'm afraid to say what I really think is going on for fear of a libel suit.


    It'll end with executives in jail. There's no way to time it unless you're in on it.
    29 Jan 2013, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • Corning's released earnings today with a great increase in revenue but poor GAAP EPS.


    if I was to advance, which I think I have a very very slim chance of, I was considering Rocky Brands (RCKY).
    29 Jan 2013, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • I don't necessarily think Amazon is doing anything illegal. I just think it's a low-margin business on a mammoth scale.


    And the market has decided to value it based on revenue as opposed to profit.


    It's an approach that will work until it doesn't. And since I can't predict when that will be, I'll stay out of the stock and watch the drama from the sidelines.


    There are plenty of other ways to make money in the market.
    30 Jan 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Feb pick: Short NFLX
    28 Jan 2013, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • feb pick Long AAPL
    28 Jan 2013, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • Well if AIG manages to catch up with the SPY then my pick would be $SHLD most likely.
    28 Jan 2013, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • Long SHLd that is
    28 Jan 2013, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • TBF Be aware that my handle has changed to izzytradesvol from izzygemiini
    29 Jan 2013, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • Can our Jan picks be the default for Feb?


    Also Jim Van Nauseum was SHORT FSLR (it's wrong in the listing) and would be green for Jan.
    29 Jan 2013, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thank you for the spot I will correct that. And yes you can have your January pick as your February pick, the start price will be adjusted to the open on Feb 1st.
    29 Jan 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • I'll play. Short DDD for Feb
    29 Jan 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Sorry Erick the contest started in January, so I cant allow your entry. I will be running another contest in the future. I will message you when I start another contest.


    Thank you for your interest in my contest.
    29 Jan 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Erick is good people. I'd love to have him in. :(
    29 Jan 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thank you, but I'm not going to change the conditions of the contest. As I said above I will run another contest in the future.
    29 Jan 2013, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • I wasn't suggesting you change the rules. Just touting the attributes of a fine gentleman.
    29 Jan 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Is $99.92M close enough to the market cap requirement to count?


    If so, Long TEU for February.
    29 Jan 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » According to Seekingalpha, TEU has a market cap of 126.66 Million so it is eligible. An interesting side note on TEU, according to yahoo finance, TEU only has 1 full time employee LOL. Odd, even for a 120 million market cap company lol.
    29 Jan 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • What can I say, he's a hard working guy.
    29 Jan 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • I am going with NIHD.....NII HOLDINGS... provides wireless communication services under the Nextel brand name to businesses and individuals in Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Peru, and Chile.


    Time for a buyout by month end...big short interest roughly 40%


    This month's RIMM
    30 Jan 2013, 01:14 AM Reply Like
  • Provided I make the cut my Feb. pick is PLG. Continued success to you Brad.
    30 Jan 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Alright cool, got everyone so far for Feb. Thank you.


    I'll be sending out individual messages later today to everyone who has not sent me their picks yet to remind them.
    30 Jan 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • We have until Friday morning, right? I was waiting to see closing prices before choosing which name to pick. I have one long and one short idea at this point.
    30 Jan 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Yeah everyone has till friday morning before the open to choose. I personally am waiting till tomorrow to make my selection if I make it to the next round.
    30 Jan 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Wow, at this morning's low, RIMM would be down on the month according to contest rules. Unreal.
    31 Jan 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Message from realornot:


    "Hello Brad,


    This is my next entry for February. Please publish..


    SHORT APOL thanks..


    31 Jan 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • That's assuming RIMM beats the SPY! Right now, they are dead even!
    31 Jan 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Case of the tortoise and the hare, RIMM jumped out to the huge lead but may end up losing the race.
    31 Jan 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • There are a number of names getting closer to losing - HLF, DNDN are within striking distance if they get hit this afternoon.
    31 Jan 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I think HLF and DNDN are fine, I would watch XIN,RIMM,AIG,BBY those are all very close to cutoff.
    31 Jan 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Matt Schilling: " I'm going LONG - IMUC"
    31 Jan 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » We had a player drop out: David Klien even though he would have made it to the next round he said he didn't want to continue.
    31 Jan 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Wow, it was touch and go there for my SODA, but it pulled ahead in the last 10 minutes. SPY + 3.16%, SODA +4.48%


    Had me worried for a bit there, and said to see it fall apart so hard in the last two days. At least it worked off the overbought conditions.


    I would like to change my call for Feb to long SODA.
    31 Jan 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • I'd like to change my FEB pick to KNDI
    31 Jan 2013, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • short VRNG
    31 Jan 2013, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Alright got your changes down Isreal and Josh, and got your pick down modernist.


    What are your guys thoughts on if someone that made it to the the second month doesn't get their pick in before the open tomorrow? Should I Have their pick be the same as their January pick?


    Also, I still need picks from the following people:


    Chasing the Vig
    YPA Finance
    Bill Mauer
    Parabana Miterjee
    Jim Van Naseum
    31 Jan 2013, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • I am going short FIVE
    31 Jan 2013, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thank you Welt I got that down.


    Also, my pick for February: Long MDRX
    31 Jan 2013, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • I would agree with defaulting to the Jan pick.
    31 Jan 2013, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • i agree default
    31 Jan 2013, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Ok, thank you for your input. I will most most likely do that.
    31 Jan 2013, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • I will submit my pick in the morning. I have 3 stocks on my list, and I want to see where they are trending in the pre-market, especially with the jobs report at 8:30. But I agree with the Jan pick for default as well.
    31 Jan 2013, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Ok sounds good.
    31 Jan 2013, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • I'm changing my pick from Long TEU to Long ZTS.


    I have a feeling this IPO will be comin' in hot.
    31 Jan 2013, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Ok i'll allow ZTS as long as it has a 100 million market cap.The Open price is what I will use as your starting price, as if you were buying it at the beginning of it trading in the aftermarket.
    31 Jan 2013, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • Oh, I don't think market cap will be a problem with this one.
    31 Jan 2013, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • I'd like to switch out my previous pick NIHD for SRPT Sarepta. Accelerated FDA approval is in the works & looking for news in Feb. Stunning results in treating Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy.
    1 Feb 2013, 01:04 AM Reply Like
  • Ypa February: AMLP.
    Thanks for the reminder Brad
    1 Feb 2013, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • Feb. pick: Short KERX
    1 Feb 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Zoetis opened at $31.50 today. Looks like it might have been comin' in a little too hot.
    1 Feb 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Yeah they said initially they were expecting $29 this morning. Although the top end of the opening range was $32, so some wiggle room there.


    With the market opening a bit higher, there's been some really crazy opening prices that could affect this month.


    My KERX pick was indicated to open at $8.90 to $8.95. Actually opened at $8.74. That difference could be huge in the end.


    NFLX opened up about $5, SODA was up a bit on opening than fell. Going to be a fun month.
    1 Feb 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Alright everyone I have updated my original post at the top with the results from January and everyone's picks for February.


    Now, onto the fun facts about January:


    -21 out of 27 People [77.78%] had picks that outperformed the SPY.


    -There were 4 people that had Short picks and only 1 [Jim Van Naseum] made it to the next round.


    -The average return of those who outperformed the SPY was 10.09%. So on average as a group we outperformed the SPY in January by nearly 7% for a one month period.
    1 Feb 2013, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Hey Brad. I see the opening price of my pick FIVE opened at $31.27, but you have it listed as $37.05. I wouldn't mind if I was long, but I'm short so unless I'm mistaken could you change it please.
    1 Feb 2013, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I use the opening price from Yahoo finance, and it shows 37.05 as the open today, so that is the price I will be using.
    1 Feb 2013, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • Okay I understand, I just hope that 22 cents doesn't drop me out of the competition. E*TRADE, Stockcharts and CNBC all have $31.27 as the opening price and I'd call them more reputable than Yahoo finance, but again I know you have to use the same source for all.
    3 Feb 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • The brokers all seem to have different opening prices for different stocks. My pick on B of A Merrill shows opening higher than it did on Yahoo as well. But we used Yahoo last month, so for consistency...
    3 Feb 2013, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • So far ZTS seems rather disconnected from the markets. This could bode well for me this month. I don't see it rising much above $32 as the valuation is stretched pretty thin.


    But I think I'll live to fight on next month if it can post a marginally positive return while the S&P takes a nosedive.


    I'm pretty sure that's my only path to hanging in the contest until march though. If the averages keep surging like they have, ZTS will likely underperform.
    7 Feb 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » You still need ZTS to rise some. Also, I am planning a One month contest that coincides with March Madness!!


    Here are some of the details:


    -I will take the first 32 entries and randomly put each person against another starting the first full week of March.
    -Each round will last one week, with the championship week being the first week of April, just like the NCAA tournament.
    -I will calculate returns from the CLOSE on March 1st, so all picks would have to be in before the close on March 1st.
    -Only LONG or SHORT a stock, and No shorting a ETF.
    -Price of atleast $1/share
    -For stock they must have a market cap of atleast $100 million
    -Traded on the NYSE, NASDAQ or AMEX
    -No leveraged ETFs
    -No Closed-End-Funds


    So I will be creating a new instablog post for that tournament later this week.
    7 Feb 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • It needs to post a positive return and beat the S&P. So if I close February at $31.51, and the S&P closes in the red, would I not continue on to the next round?


    I'd be near the bottom of the rankings for sure. But I'd survive.


    And this is, after all, a survivor contest.


    Also, for the March Madness contest, can I reserve a spot now and post my pick closer to the deadline? Or is it just first come, first serve for the first 32 people to post a pick?
    7 Feb 2013, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Yes you are correct. I was accidentally looking at someone else pick.


    I'm hoping i can make it back to positive territory. MDRX has done the opposite as the SPY, when the SPY is down MDRX is up and when the SPY is up MDRX is down lol.
    7 Feb 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Top 5 Leader so far this month:


    Bill Mauer KERX 24.26%
    Matt Schilling IMUC 21.43%
    Isreal Shenker KNDI 6.99%
    E.W. Barnaba ZTS 4.92%
    mktlab68 SRPT 4.33%
    9 Feb 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • SNFL (snowfall) +14%
    9 Feb 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Hey everyone, contest is going great so far! Just letting everyone know I am starting a one month contest that emulates NCAA March Madness!!


    Below is the link to the contest instablog, please share with fellow followers:

    19 Feb 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Liking it, My pick MDRX up over 15% today.
    20 Feb 2013, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • And on your comment, it immediately drops 20 cents. haha
    20 Feb 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LOL thnx. As long as nothing drastic happens I should make it to the next round.
    20 Feb 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • I have a feeling the final days of this month are going to get very interesting. Even a minor pullback would send the SPY into negative territory, and I don't think we have very many runaway winners the same way we did last month.


    Should be fun to watch.
    20 Feb 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I agree will be interesting, currently there are 11 out of 20 that have a positive return and higher than the SPY. Also, check out my other insta blog post, I am running a March Madness trading contest.
    20 Feb 2013, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • I love how I pulled candy out of my @ss
    20 Feb 2013, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » reminder for everyone who is in the contest, your pick for march needs to be in before the open on Friday March 1st!!


    Also, if you are interested please join my NCAA March Madness inspired stock contest.

    25 Feb 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Provided I'm still surviving by Friday, I'm gonna go short LNKD for March.


    I reserve the right to change my pick if it starts to deflate too soon though.
    25 Feb 2013, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • I will go long REGN for March at this point, but I might change it before the bell tomorrow based on some names reporting earnings this afternoon.
    28 Feb 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Alright I got your picks down.
    28 Feb 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Alright I posted the table right below the contest rules of the users who made it to the next round. Out of 20 that made it to February only 9 made it to the March round.


    Also, I sent messages to everyone left in the contest to make sure they get their picks in before the open tomorrow.


    My Pick for March: Long Agrium Inc. (AGU)
    28 Feb 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Pick For March: I'm Going Long (GLW)
    28 Feb 2013, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • I'm going to make a late substitution, and change my March pick to Long AAPL.


    I just hope we get something more exciting than a slimmer iPad on the 7th.
    28 Feb 2013, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • Ok, my last last minute change - I promise


    Short BBY (Best Buy).


    Sorry for being difficult.
    1 Mar 2013, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • NTI - Northern Tier Energy - These guys are printing money....Refiner trade...Earnings this month
    1 Mar 2013, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • I am changing my pick as well, I will ditch REGN.


    My new pick is short HGSH (China HGS Real Estate).
    1 Mar 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » No problems, got everyones picks down. I will post all picks with starting prices later this morning. Good Luck!!
    1 Mar 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I have updated my post above and it now shows everyones picks with their starting prices.
    1 Mar 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Wow, interestingly enough, Yahoo changed the opening price of HGSH from $5.08 to $5.04. I was watching this at the opening and the first trade was at $5.08. My broker also has $5.08 as the opening. I hope this doesn't cost me in the end!
    1 Mar 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Interesting, I am going by what Yahoo finance says, I'll check again after the close today, or tomorrow to make sure it is still 5.04.
    1 Mar 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah it is strange. At 9:35 AM, it said $5.08 as the opening price. I don't think I'll really worry though. I have a feeling that this stock will either soar or drop this month, so I don't realistically think 4 cents is going to matter either way. We'll see though.
    1 Mar 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • 5 out of us 9 are short this month.


    5 out of us 9 were long last month.


    Coincidence? Or a sign that sentiment is shifting?


    I seem to remember virtually everyone being long in January...
    4 Mar 2013, 01:09 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I agree is very interesting to see what happens in a month with a market decline since Jan, and Feb have both been positive for the SPY.
    4 Mar 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Interesting, with one hour left of trading no one is meeting both conditions of a positive return AND beating the SPY.


    mktlab66 is the only one who has a positive return but is slightly below the return of SPY for the month. So even if he doesn't get past the SPY, he will still win because he is the only one with a positive return.


    Modernist was in the running but his Short VRNG choice blew up today with VRNG up 13% today.
    28 Mar 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • For the record, GLW was positive as well
    31 Mar 2013, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • I should get credit for exploding in such a SPECTACULAR fashion!
    28 Mar 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Oh man, you lost more money than you had. And I thought I'd be at the bottom of the list for sure with my Best Buy short.
    28 Mar 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • So if no one makes it past this month, does that mean everyone who survived February tied for first?
    28 Mar 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I feel bad for you Bill, as of right now a 100.40% loss on your short.


    If no one makes it past this month and mktlab is the only one with a positive return, he will win because he is the only one out of the 9 finalists that has a positive return for the month.


    Then we can move on to another contest idea I have which I will give details to later.
    28 Mar 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • I went for an ultra high risk, ultra high reward. It was up huge going into the month, and just kept going.
    28 Mar 2013, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I am starting a new 2013 investment contest using that will start April 8th and go until the end of the year.



    Contest Details:

  is free.


    -What is great about is that dividends are INCLUDED, unlike most other contests.


    -Start with $1 million


    -For the stocks in your portfolio it has a news feed, which includes articles which includes articles from Seeking Alpha.


    -Winner is person with highest percentage gain.


    Good Luck Everyone!
    30 Mar 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Brad, I'm assuming we go to the link and sign up and we give you our picks, etc.?
    31 Mar 2013, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Sorry Matt, my code was messed up in my spreadsheet for your pick, you are correct GLW did have a positive return and was better than the SPY, so I apologize. Also, Congratulations you won the contest!!


    -On my new contest you sign up and can trade anytime, starting on April 8th.
    31 Mar 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Cool, So What'd I Win ???
    31 Mar 2013, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Bragging rights, as top stock picker.
    1 Apr 2013, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Letting everyone know about a sell signal that was triggered yesterday from a custom technical study I have

    3 Apr 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Just a reminder to everyone I started a new contest on,
    8 Apr 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
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