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Brad Kenagy
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History/Trading Style: I have been investing for 6 years. The subjects I focus primarily on are building custom portfolio's of ETF's, Technical analysis of stocks and ETF's, and value investing, as well as other topics. Also, I am looking for a permanent job, so if anyone likes my skills, and... More
  • March Madness Trading Challenge 154 comments
    Feb 19, 2013 12:22 PM | about stocks: SPY, DIA, QQQ

    Contest Rules

    Every person that enters picks 1 stock/ETF that meets the below selection criteria by the CLOSE on MARCH 8th. Picks should be posted in the comment section of this instablog. No Stock Pick Repeats!! Once a Stock is chosen by a user, no one else can choose that stock. I will be taking the first 64 Entries I receive for the contest. I will calculate returns from the close on Friday March 1st. and for each subsequent round I will calculate returns from the Friday close of that given week. I have created a Google spreadsheet for the trading challenge, and is able to be viewed by everyone.

    Bracket Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AphdhVxTO0uudGd4RUg5bjNud1VGU00tb3hQcjVmdEE&usp=sharing

    Seed Ranking

    As anyone who watches the NCAA tournament knows each team is assigned a seed number ranging from 1 to 16. So for this contest I will calculate each seed by the following method:

    • I will base each users seed by their article count, so based on 64 user, the top 4 people with the most articles will get 1 seeds, the next 4 will get two seeds and so on.
    • For users that have not submitted an article I will put their name in a spreadsheet and use a random generation tool to determine their seed.

    Stock/ETF Selection rules:

    1. Only LONG or SHORT a stock, and No shorting a ETF.
    2. Price of atleast $1/share
    3. For stock they must have a market cap of atleast $100 million
    4. Traded on the NYSE, NASDAQ or AMEX
    5. No leveraged ETFs
    6. No Closed-End-Funds

    Good Luck Everyone!!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Stocks: SPY, DIA, QQQ
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This post has 154 comments:

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  •  
    March will belong to $BBRY.

    LONG!

    This is a MAD stock.
    19 Feb, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Thank you, got your entry down.
    19 Feb, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Right now, my pick is long REGN. However, I'm assuming we can change it up until March 1st?
    19 Feb, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Correct, any picks made before the Close on March 1st can be changed, after the close that day, picks are locked.
    19 Feb, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Long $SHLD, short squeeze time!
    19 Feb, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Alright got it down. Thank you.
    19 Feb, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  •  
    So I know the rules are set and everything, but would you consider changing this contest so that we pick a different stock each week?

    I think it would make it a bit more interesting, and also further differentiate it from the trading survivor contest.
    21 Feb, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Thank you for the idea, I thought about that, but it is more difficult to make sure a large number of people make their picks each week.
    21 Feb, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I'm relatively new to the investment game but if I can jump in with #QCOR, I'd like to. May change after earnings are reported...
    23 Feb, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Welcome to investing!! I got your QCOR pick down.
    23 Feb, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Well, this is only a one month contest, so I'll go with the pick I'm too timid to make for the trading survivor contest.

    Long LOCK (Lifelock)

    Perhaps the rash of recent hackings will stoke demand for indentity theft protection. Perhaps not.
    25 Feb, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I will enter IDT
    26 Feb, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Alright got it down, Thank you.
    26 Feb, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Fuel Systems Solutions, Inc - FSYS
    26 Feb, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Alright got it down Tim, thank you, spread the word to others.
    26 Feb, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Long SN.
    27 Feb, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Shorting Apple. Yeah. You heard me.
    27 Feb, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Alright got your picks down,and also please spread the word about the contest. I would like a full 64 person field, but at min I want 32. I will keep letting people know my stock talk or direct message.
    27 Feb, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  •  
    SLW long
    27 Feb, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Long MJNA, yea I know it is very speculative, But recently a bill has been introduced in congress that would allow people and businesses to use medical marijuana in states that have approved it. So if the bill passes in March, MJNA could see significant gains.
    27 Feb, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Got your pick down vamp, and Bobbert333, MJNA is not eligible because it does NOT trade on the Nasdaq,NYSE or AMEX. Please select another stock.
    27 Feb, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Long BAC, Its has been taking a hit in Feb, and could rebound a nice 10-15%.
    27 Feb, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Alright thank you got it down.
    27 Feb, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Long ZAGG
    27 Feb, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Alright got your pick down Matt. Thank you, spread the word.
    27 Feb, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Long SRPT
    27 Feb, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Good ol SRPT. Got in at 12 sold at 16 and a day before my birthday it hit its high. Terrible lol
    1 Mar, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Alright got your pick down hornblower. Thank you, please spread the word about the contest.
    27 Feb, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Brad Could I have BYD
    27 Feb, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Give me PZG please
    27 Feb, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  •  
    OK, got your pick down Andrew and Youngone. Thank you, please spread the word about the contest.
    27 Feb, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Great idea, i'll take COH
    27 Feb, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Alright thank you for your pick, I got it down. Please spread the word about the contest.
    27 Feb, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Clever & ambitious, I'll go long Cenovous(CVE).
    27 Feb, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Alright I got it down, thank you for the pick.
    27 Feb, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  •  
    After the price drop got it down to a fair level, I'm going to go with a long position on DDD.
    27 Feb, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Alright got it down, thank you, and please spread the word about the contest.
    27 Feb, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Since the contest isnt full, yet would you guys be willing to let me extend the contest entry period another week so that it could fill up all the way to the full 64 users??
    28 Feb, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I'm fine with that - the NCAA tourney really doesn't start until 3 weeks from now (not counting play in games). It's a week later this year, so I'm fine moving this back.

    Might be worth it to make the start date March 11th - simple reason is that next Friday is the Feb jobs report and we could have huge price swings at the open - I think this happened with the other contest when we started in January.
    28 Feb, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I like the idea of starting on the 11th.Should be able to fill up by then.
    28 Feb, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  •  
    How many spots do we need to fill? Perhaps two entries per competitor would help in the first round.

    If we start tomorrow, my pick is FNP. My secondary pick is LXP.

    If we start on the 11th I'll change them.
    28 Feb, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  •  
    We will start on the 11th I would rather have a full field and anyone can change their picks up until the close on Friday March 8th.
    28 Feb, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I'm In - Going Long DNDN
    28 Feb, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Long AUY...im giving my self the same chances as Army making the tournament
    1 Mar, 07:16 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Alright I Got your picks down Matt, and showalter.
    1 Mar, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Long SPLS
    1 Mar, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Short (SPWR)
    1 Mar, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Why not... Long IMMR
    1 Mar, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Long HLF
    1 Mar, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Alright got all your entries down, spread the word about the contest.
    1 Mar, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  •  
    You might want to think about "advertising" your contest in comments you make in SA articles about highly volatile or controversial stocks. I stumbled on your contest when my cursor moved over your handle and your bio and the contest link popped up.
    3 Mar, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I have posted on the seeking alpha twitter page, stocktalks, and contributor forums.
    3 Mar, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Short CRM (Salesforce.com)
    1 Mar, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I will go Short GTAT please
    3 Mar, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Brad would love it if we started today with BYD.
    4 Mar, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  •  
    oh well
    4 Mar, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  •  
    As I have told others, you can change your pick up until the close on March 8th.
    4 Mar, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Long PGH
    4 Mar, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  •  
    short FOE
    sounds fun!
    4 Mar, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  •  
    While I disagree with the short time horizon, this might be fun.

    Long AIQ
    4 Mar, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Intangible Valuation AIQ is not eligible because it has under $100 million market cap, please change your pick.

    Thank you.
    4 Mar, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Oh that's right isn't it? I've been thinking about it in terms of how much its actually worth -- which is many multiples of the $100mm floor. Oh well, never mind.
    4 Mar, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Feel free to make another pick sometime before the close Friday if you wish.
    4 Mar, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Hey Brad - did you get my pick in?

    Cheers
    4 Mar, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Yep got your pick down.
    4 Mar, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Long BMA, thanks!
    4 Mar, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Alright got it down, thank you.
    4 Mar, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I will take NTI please.
    5 Mar, 04:43 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Alright got it down pete.
    5 Mar, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Long PAL
    5 Mar, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  •  
    K got it down, thank you.
    5 Mar, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Long SZYM
    5 Mar, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  •  
    K mathewjordan I got it down. Thank you.
    5 Mar, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  •  
    My first comment on SA. Long AMD, please.
    6 Mar, 02:11 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Thank you and Welcome to Seeking Alpha!!
    6 Mar, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Long VNQ
    6 Mar, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  •  
    hopefully it's not too late to enter in. I'll go Long SKUL
    6 Mar, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  •  
    oh jeez. I'll change to long WPRT, if possible.
    8 Mar, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  •  
    K got it down, thanks.
    8 Mar, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I got your entry and FleetUSA's and there is still plenty of time to enter, please share with your followers if you think they would be interested,
    6 Mar, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Long TSCO Thanks Brad
    6 Mar, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Thank you Robert I got it down.
    6 Mar, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  •  
    VRNG. #1 seed baby! haha
    6 Mar, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Alright got it down, thank you, spread the word about the contest.
    6 Mar, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Short JCP. Thanks for the contest
    7 Mar, 05:08 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Short JCP
    7 Mar, 05:13 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Short NFLX, thanks
    7 Mar, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  •  
    K Got ccjauns and Ong picks down, good luck, spread the word about the contest.
    7 Mar, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Long AMD. Thanks and good luck all!
    7 Mar, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Arrghh.. Looks like AMD was picked. I'll go with long ALU. Thanks.
    7 Mar, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Changing my pick - long EEMS.
    7 Mar, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  •  
    K got your two picks down, thank you.
    7 Mar, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Long SIRI
    8 Mar, 12:51 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Changing pick too GNIN LONG
    8 Mar, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Long SCTY

    Thank you!
    8 Mar, 01:03 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I`m a average trader ,i been trading for about 2 yearS
    SIRI
    8 Mar, 03:30 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Alright Mickey and O. I got your picks down.
    8 Mar, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  •  
    After the close today, I will update the bracket so everyone can see who they are up against.
    8 Mar, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Just a reminder all picks need to be in BEFORE the end of trading today. You can change your picks up to that point if you like.
    8 Mar, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I assume we are using today's closing price then - instead of Monday's opening?
    8 Mar, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Correct, prices for the first round are based on the closing price of today.
    8 Mar, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I am going to switch my pick to Short APAM (Artisan Partners Asset Management), which just IPOed.
    8 Mar, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  •  
    K got it down, thanks
    8 Mar, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Changing to AFFY short.
    8 Mar, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  •  
    For my pick I'm going LONG American Railcar Industries, Inc. (ARII)
    8 Mar, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  •  
    changing my pick. CYTX
    8 Mar, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  •  
    OK got it down, one hour to go. Then I will construct the bracket.
    8 Mar, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Alright everyone, bracket is posted link is above under the contest description, or here:

    http://bit.ly/WzmQ2S

    Since I didn't get the full 64 players [I got 44] So for the remaining 20 spots, I selected 20 stocks from the S&P 500 and ordered them 1-20, and put them in a spreadsheet and ran a random number generator to see where each would be in the bracket.

    GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!!!
    8 Mar, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Not sure if FB is in the S&P 500 yet, but it's large enough that it really doesn't matter.
    8 Mar, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I thought it was, still will include it anyways.
    8 Mar, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  •  
    AFOP long. ... thanks Brad
    8 Mar, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  •  
    sorry toptiger, the contest entry period has ended.
    8 Mar, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  •  
    That's to bad Brad. Entered this post before 9am EST on March 8th.
    By the time post appeared on this site.....11 hours later, market had closed.... and I am out.
    9 Mar, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I'm sorry I have to go by the time the post says, I apologize.
    9 Mar, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Thanks Brad for setting this up. Let's hope a computer doesn't win :)
    11 Mar, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Yeah I know, will be a good test of how good stock pickers are on seeking alpha.
    11 Mar, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Realornot has got to be the best 15-seed in the history of the tournament!
    13 Mar, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  •  
    He is this years 15 seed LeHigh who beat 2nd seed Duke last year!
    13 Mar, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I went to Lehigh.
    13 Mar, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Very cool.
    13 Mar, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Wow, I just saw who I was put up against! PGH vs BBRY....
    15 Mar, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  •  
    How did I get a 12 seed? If I were Realornot I'd be pissed at the disrespect.
    13 Mar, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Joe, You both randomly got selected, as stated in the contest description

    -"The top 4 people with the most articles will get 1 seeds, the next 4 will get two seeds and so on."

    -"For users that have not submitted an article I will put their name in a spreadsheet and use a random generation tool to determine their seed."

    Just luck of the draw, blame Microsoft excels random number generator LOL
    13 Mar, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Will today's closing price be the start point for the next week's matchup?
    15 Mar, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Yes that is correct.
    15 Mar, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Alright everybody, the first round is over, and the second round is posted now on the bracket so you can check out your second round match ups. Sucks I didn't even make it past the first round in my own tourney lol.
    15 Mar, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  •  
    14 double-digit seeds advanced!
    15 Mar, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Only 5 computers seemed to advance. Looks like I'm the only one to face a computer twice.
    15 Mar, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Who was the biggest gainer for the first round?
    16 Mar, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  •  
    PGH went up 9% in one week and LOST!
    16 Mar, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Tell me about it, lol!
    16 Mar, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Biggest gainer from round 1, was realornot with BBRY at gain of 14.78% just happened that the number 2 gainer for the week was Albert Alfonso who he was playing and had a return of 8.86%. Just the luck of the draw.
    16 Mar, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  •  
    And yet my pick loses 6% and I advance. Ugly.
    16 Mar, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Yep, sometimes its not pretty but it works lol.
    16 Mar, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  •  
    God I suck at swing trading. I'd be retired now if I never had tried any. Brad's contests are great examples. Of course I will try again in his next one. This is my porn.
    16 Mar, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  •  
    What happened I though you had pzg down for me
    17 Mar, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I do, check out the bracket, you made it to the second round.
    17 Mar, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Uh oh I'm up against Ocean Man, I've got a bad feeling about this.
    19 Mar, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Nice comeback Ghosts! I was winning by 1.5% with less than an hour to play - wow.
    23 Mar, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I feel bad for growingmoney, he us up against Vampyroteuthis infernalis who is SHORT AFFY and today affy is down 57% because they might be planning a bankruptcy.
    19 Mar, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Next round has been updated and can now be viewed. Congrats to Vampyroteuthis infernalis for biggest % gain of the week with a 53.47% gain on his Short AFFY pick.
    22 Mar, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Brad,

    How do you decide who goes on to the next round.
    Is it just the starting point from Monday?

    Check out the link: http://cnnmon.ie/ZUj8Oc

    Looks like we tied.
    23 Mar, 01:17 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Closing prices from Friday.
    23 Mar, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  •  
    AS the rules in my post say prices are based on the close on friday of each week.

    So the close for VRNG on Friday March 15th was: 2.98 and its closed yesterday at 2.90.

    So (2.90-2.98)/(2.98)= -2.68% return for the week

    Your challenger was AMD

    Close last friday of 2.60, and close yesterday of 2.54.

    SO (2.54-2.60)/(2.60)= -2.31% return for the week.


    So because his return was higher than yours he moved on.
    23 Mar, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Dang! oh well maybe next year haha
    23 Mar, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Glad i made it despite AMD's Friday dip. Sorry for VRNG, Justin. Good luck with your investments...Go AMD, mainly because I'm long AMD.
    24 Mar, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  •  
    oneotherfool,

    No worries. I'm long VRNG as well. Should see a major turnaround soon. Looking for a pop to $5 soon. Good luck!!
    25 Mar, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I have updated the bracket and elite 8 matchups are now set. Good luck!
    28 Mar, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I am starting a new 2013 investment contest using updown.com that will start April 8th and go until the end of the year.

    http://bit.ly/XOugdX

    Contest Details:

    -updown.com is free.

    -What is great about updown.com is that dividends are INCLUDED, unlike most other contests.

    -Start with $1 million

    -For the stocks in your portfolio it has a news feed, which includes articles which includes articles from Seeking Alpha.

    -Winner is person with highest percentage gain.

    Good Luck Everyone!!
    30 Mar, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Letting everyone know about a sell signal that was triggered yesterday from a custom technical study I have.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    3 Apr, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I have updated the Bracket one the left side its computer vs computer, and on the right its Andres S vs Chris Lau
    8 Apr, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Just a reminder to everyone I started a new contest on updown.com http://bit.ly/XOugdX
    8 Apr, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Good luck Andrew S. your in the Title Game against MCD.
    15 Apr, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Thanks Brad
    18 Apr, 04:28 PM Reply Like
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