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Pablo E. Laviola
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Pablo Laviola has worked as CFO at GePax Investment Group since 2006, when the company was founded. At this time, the company which is based in Argentina, is expanding to many other Latam countries and diversifying its core business, since 2010 the company invests in the USA financial markets.... More
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GePax Investment Group
  • What does the Ford quotation depend? Oil? Dollar Strenght? Let´s see... 0 comments
    Apr 19, 2011 1:28 AM | about stocks: F, UUP, USO, DIA
    As a Ford Motor Company stock follower I read several information about F, some authors said that higher oil prices pull the stock down, and some other compares other factors, so I wondered how does the stock price really depend of some things.

    I prepared a statistical regression to check the correlation between F and DIA, Nasdaq, UUP and USO. To compare with industrials, tech, US currency strength and oil price.

    F Regression
    (click to enlarge)


    The analysis is based in 253 daily observations from 03-16-2010 to 03-14-2011.

    And here are the results using the R-squared...

    The DIA alone explained 70.40% of the F price change.

    The Nasdaq alone explained 76.81% of the F price change.

    The UUP alone explained 49.26% of the F price change.

    The USO alone explained 24.69% of the F price change.


    So we can conclude at first sight that the USO price change is the less relevant factor to determine change in Ford´s stock price. So we can affirm that higher fuel prices do not affect in the way a fall in the Nasdaq can do.

    If we group the 4 variables we can say that 83.18% of change in F stock price are determined by them. So statistically talking we conclude that there is a 16.82% that fully depends on F results.


    Source: Own analysis based on historical prices of finance.yahoo.com


    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Stocks: F, UUP, USO, DIA
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