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What does the Ford quotation depend? Oil? Dollar Strenght? Let´s see...

|Includes:DIA, Ford Motor Company (F), USO, UUP

As a Ford Motor Company stock follower I read several information about F, some authors said that higher oil prices pull the stock down, and some other compares other factors, so I wondered how does the stock price really depend of some things.

I prepared a statistical regression to check the correlation between F and DIA, Nasdaq, UUP and USO. To compare with industrials, tech, US currency strength and oil price.

F Regression
(click to enlarge)


The analysis is based in 253 daily observations from 03-16-2010 to 03-14-2011.

And here are the results using the R-squared...

The DIA alone explained 70.40% of the F price change.

The Nasdaq alone explained 76.81% of the F price change.

The UUP alone explained 49.26% of the F price change.

The USO alone explained 24.69% of the F price change.


So we can conclude at first sight that the USO price change is the less relevant factor to determine change in Ford´s stock price. So we can affirm that higher fuel prices do not affect in the way a fall in the Nasdaq can do.

If we group the 4 variables we can say that 83.18% of change in F stock price are determined by them. So statistically talking we conclude that there is a 16.82% that fully depends on F results.


Source: Own analysis based on historical prices of finance.yahoo.com


Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Stocks: F, UUP, USO, DIA