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Economist first, attorney second. I enjoy critiquing the current groupthink spewing from the academics, central bankers, journalists and banksters regarding the world’s fiscal, financial and economic condition. The groupthinkers seem to think that we are muddling through a post-Great Financial... More
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  • Around The Globe 04.17.2013 0 comments
    Apr 17, 2013 2:10 PM
    Around the Globe 04.17.2013

    IMF Sees 20% of Corporate Debt Unsustainable in Parts of Europe - Bloomberg.

    Spanish Bankruptcies

    This is exactly why low interest rates lead to bubbles and malinvestment. When companies see these low interest rates, they just cannot help themselves. They begin gorging on debt whether or not they have worthwhile projects to invest in. The excess debt does not create as much revenue as is needed to service it despite the low rates. Eventually, this leads to bankruptcies and defaults, as in Spain depicted in the chart above.

    Not Concerned About Hard Landing in China: IMF.

    The IMF has a poor economic forecasting record. According to the fund, Cyprus needs only €17.5bn, not €23bn and rising, while Greece should have returned to growth two years ago. Since the onset of the GFC, China has relied on a credit boom feeding unproductive projects such as ghost cities and roads to nowhere. This is unsustainable. Moreover, the implication of denying a hard landing is that China is not in the midst of a bubble. None of these entities, whether they be NGOs or central banks, ever spot a bubble forming until it bursts.

    BOJ official: mulling increasing frequency of JGB purchases | Reuters.

    JGB Volatility

    For some reason, the BoJ clusters its bond purchases over five or six days of the month resulting in increasing volatility in the market (chart above). The Fed spreads its purchase out over the entire month (chart below).

    POMO Schedule April 2013

    Sliding Yen Could Herald New Asian Currency Crisis: Albert Edwards.


    Mr. Edwards has come to the conclusion that the cheap yen will find its way to markets throughout the world as Japanese investors cash out of their JGBs and chase yield. Interestingly, the euro has appreciated nicely since the BoJ's announcement, and periphery bond yields have fallen as exemplified by Spain.

    Spanish 10yr SB 04.17.2013

    Bundesbank Chief Weidmann Says Europe Recovery Could Take Decade -

    The PIIGS have already endured a few years of misery and have a decade of more of the same to look forward to. The euro will break up long before the promised recovery materializes in ten years.

    Stock Surge Linked to Lobbyist -

    XLV 04.02.2013

    A former Congressional staffer receives tips from his former colleagues 180° away in the revolving door. Then, he passes them along to the people who pay him to lobby Congress. Healthcare stocks mysteriously rise shortly thereafter.

    I predict that in a few months, when no one is looking, the SEC will quietly close their investigation without finding any wrongdoing.

    HEARD ON THE STREET: This Trend Is No Friend to Goldman -

    GS 04.17.2013

    The main point to glean from this article is that Goldman's profit rise is unsustainable in the face of falling revenue. An artificial bull market stoked by money printing is creating profits in underwriting and investing and lending that will end once the market turns. GS and its TBTF brethren will be in for a rough ride once this happens. Furthermore, expenses have already been cut to the bone, so profit gains from operational cuts will begin to wane as well.

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