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Economist first, attorney second. I enjoy critiquing the current groupthink spewing from the academics, central bankers, journalists and banksters regarding the world’s fiscal, financial and economic condition. The groupthinkers seem to think that we are muddling through a post-Great Financial... More
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  • Around The Globe 04.18.2013 0 comments
    Apr 18, 2013 1:35 PM

    Italian parliament fails to elect state president | Reuters.

    Italian 10yr Yield 04.18.2013

    Bersani wants to form a government and needs Berlusconi's support to do so. A political deal was made between the two coalitions, and they agreed to jointly support Franco Marini for President. However, the choice angered half of Bersani's supporters, and they refuse to vote for his chosen candidate. The uprising appears to be lead by Florentine mayor Matteo Renzi. Until this deadlock is resolved, there will be no movement on forming a government. Meanwhile, markets are taking all of this in stride. Italian debt is at recent lows thanks to traders attempting to frontrun BoJ money printing.

    More Children in Greece Are Going Hungry.

    Cyprus, if you're paying attention, this is the cost of remaining within the Eurozone. In order to preserve the status quo for banksters, politicians, public employees and Germany, the children of Greece must be sacrificed on the altar of the euro. Do you still want that bailout?

    Japan March Exports Exceed Analyst Estimates After Yen Slide - Bloomberg.

    The mainstream media's enthusiasm for money printing is giving birth to the "Japanese Recovery Meme:"

    Better-than-forecast trade numbers add to positive signs for Japan's economy...

    C'mon Bloomberg, give some support for the statement. What are the positive signs?

    Notwithstanding that Japan's trade numbers remain abysmal and this is merely a blip upward amidst a very troubling trend, what exactly are the positive signs that this news adds to? The stock market is rising as traders frontrun the BoJ, but industrial activity and consumption remain depressed.

    In the real world, Japan has experienced positive growth in only one of the last five quarters, and retail sales have declined in the last two consecutive months on a year over year basis:

    japan-retail-sales-annual japan-gdp-growth

    'Sense of Urgency' as ECB Rate Cut Talk Rises.

    The Eurozone's dire situation is way beyond the help of an ECB rate cut. All this action will do is push markets higher with virtually no effect on the economic situation on the ground. There is plenty of money in the Eurozone, but banks are unwilling and unable to lend it due to weakness of their balance sheets and the economy.

    My favorite quote in the article:

    Europe's economy is not out of the woods yet, so the ECB is keeping all its policy options on the table and that is the sensible way to go about it, especially if they are concerned about German growth slowing.

    Stating that Europe is not out of the woods yet implies that they are moving in the right direction. Europe is still lost as it foolishly clings to the euro despite all of the evidence that the common currency is the cause of its economic decline.

    If I Were 'Dictator,' QE Would End Now, Fed's Lacker Says.

    Ending QE now would create a market panic, so let's all give thanks that Lacker is not in charge. Once a central bank commences money printing, it cannot stop. After the effects of the current program wear off and markets begin to waver, the Fed will announce another round. The excuse for this market support will be that employment is still weak. The Fed cloaks its policy for the rich with concern for the worker.

    Morgan Stanley Beats Estimates on Brokerage-Revenue Gains - Bloomberg.

    From marketwatch.com
    From marketwatch.com

    The TBTF bank story remains the same. Profits rise due expense cuts and a bull market while revenue continues to fall. Morgan Stanley relied on increased profits from its wealth management arm for this quarter's results. As asset prices increase due to money printing, it earns more money from clients who pay a fixed percentage of their portfolio values in management fees. Larger portfolios mean more fees without having to perform extra work. Once the markets stop rising, profits will fall dramatically. Perhaps this is why the TBTF firms have been beat up this week.

    Nokia Sales Hit 13-Year Low as Phone Demand Falls Short - Bloomberg.

    NOK 04.18.2013
    From BBG

    Nokia is dying. Using Windows as its phone operating system was the wrong move. Microsoft's OS is an also ran in the smartphone arena with single digit market share. If Nokia begins offering smartphones run by Android, there is no reason why the company cannot reverse its descent.

    U.K. Retail Sales Drop More Than Forecast on Weather: Economy - Bloomberg.

    Wow, the weather must have been really fierce in the U.K. to cause such a drop in retail sales. There must have been many days below freezing with a couple of blizzards. Actually, the temperatures were mostly in the 40's with no unusually strong storms:

    London March Weather 2013 - AccuWeather Forecast for City and County of the City of London United Kingdom.

    Ignoring the hype for a moment, the real reason British sales are down is because the economy is not performing well.

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