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Dr. Stocks-PHD Twenty year Wall Street veteran. Hollywoods direct line to Wall Street. Specialize in market timing and predictive modeling. Follow my updates via twitter/tkathlinastocks and at my blog
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After The Bell
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After The Bell
  • After The Bell-Time To Short Semi-Conductors-INTC, AMD, TXN Jan 10th  0 comments
    Jan 10, 2012 7:43 PM | about stocks: INTC, SMH, SOXS

    As we move closer to the high for the year in the S&P,(today reaching my lowest high price of 1290) it's time to begin getting serious about getting short. Today the Semi-Conductor space pulled into view. Semi companies such as Intel begin reporting earnings middle of next week, into the following week after. Nothing more exciting for me then for stocks to ramp into earnings, and investment strategist(cough) try and front run the numbers such as David Trainer did today:
    Buy Intel: a stock for all seasons
    Marketwatch Jan 10th David Trainer < > In an increasingly challenging market, Intel Corp. is one of the safest investments with compelling upside potential. That's right, investors get to have their cake and eat it too.-David Trainer

    I will make a bet with David that INTC doesn't WOW Wall Street with their earnings report, and notes the strong US dollar, higher labor cost, lack of new compelling tech gadgets over Christmas shopping season as just a few of the reasons.

    SMH is the Semi holder ETF. The chart shows the stock has taken out the upper BBands and ramped into overhead resistance levels. Most telling is the R2 figure of 97. Exhaustive study has been done on this, stocks above 98, tend to under perform in the next week or weeks. (Just in time to sucker everyone in for earnings next week)

    SOXS is the bear ETF for Semiconductors. Notice our trading RSI<2> indicator is BELOW one. (Love it)
    Exhaustive studies show that stocks with one or less RSI<2> readings, tend to outperform the next week or following weeks. Highest Volume by Price is around $55. I look for the shares to ramp to the level without much effort.
    Conclusion: Now that the S&P has reach the underside of my top price target range, some short calls such as run, and run fast from Semi-Conductors can be comfortably committed to.
    In the coming weeks I expect sell side analyst who believe stocks never go down, will lose their clients a bunch of money.
    Tim Kathlina
    Stocks: INTC, SMH, SOXS
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