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  • Before The Bell-TVIX 3 Pattern Set Up Jan 24th  2 comments
    Jan 24, 2012 9:55 AM | about stocks: TVIX

    From ZeroHedge Jan 24th: S&P Warning Of Imminent Greek Default Again, But Promises All Shall Be Well, Dallara Speaks

    You have heard history repeats? It's True.

    Looking at TVIX, the power of the pattern suggest a historical repeat of 2011. Not only does the chart suggest that, but we can take 2011 headlines, such as the one above by ZeroHedge, and change to 2012; they all read the same.

    We are trading TVIX because it offers the most, and quickest upside once a decline begins and it also provides a well defined low. Unlike ALL OTHER bear ETFs, that can go down and reverse split forever, the volatility index generally only goes so low.

    TVIX exhibits what I believe are 3 repeating patterns, with Pattern 2 about to be embarked on soon. I expect the shares to jump up to $30, followed by headlines out of Europe that all the problems are solved, sending the shares sharply back below $20, which then sets up the final Pattern 3 scenario as we realize the sh_t is about to hit the fan.

    This time, unlike last time however, I expect TVIX to go much higher. The reason being a full 5 wave up cycle will have been completed in the S&P by the time P3 begins, ushering in the start of P3 bear that will ultimately take the S&P to sub 600.

    Conclusion: History is repeating as central planners believe doing the same thing, only more of it, will bring about a different result.

    We added to TVIX position today, will probably scale that back at $30, then look to re-enter on the final pull back below $20, all in.

    Tim Kathlina

    Stocks: TVIX
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  • aquaffect
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    its below $15 now any suggestions when will it go back up?
    3 Feb 2012, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • tkathlinastocks
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    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » TVIX is in WAVE 3 of 3 down. Wave 3 will extend 1.61% of Wave 1, typically. This amounts to about 54 points subtracted from Wave 2, or a price target of $12.
    The $VIX on Friday 3rd did close a gap and hold Support 1 at $16, forming a bullish hammer. This sets up well for next week, or the 180 time frame the week of Feb 8th.
    I expect to work off the oversold condition no higher in the $VIX then 25, before making the final low push to $12 in TVIX to complete Wave 3.
    There is possibly a credit event this week with Greece, that can change this set up scenario.
    4 Feb 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
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