Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

Before The Bell-TVIX 3 Pattern Set Up Jan 24th

Jan. 24, 2012 9:55 AM ETF2 Comments
Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

From ZeroHedge Jan 24th: S&P Warning Of Imminent Greek Default Again, But Promises All Shall Be Well, Dallara Speaks

You have heard history repeats? It's True.

Looking at TVIX, the power of the pattern suggest a historical repeat of 2011. Not only does the chart suggest that, but we can take 2011 headlines, such as the one above by ZeroHedge, and change to 2012; they all read the same.

We are trading TVIX because it offers the most, and quickest upside once a decline begins and it also provides a well defined low. Unlike ALL OTHER bear ETFs, that can go down and reverse split forever, the volatility index generally only goes so low.

TVIX exhibits what I believe are 3 repeating patterns, with Pattern 2 about to be embarked on soon. I expect the shares to jump up to $30, followed by headlines out of Europe that all the problems are solved, sending the shares sharply back below $20, which then sets up the final Pattern 3 scenario as we realize the sh_t is about to hit the fan.

This time, unlike last time however, I expect TVIX to go much higher. The reason being a full 5 wave up cycle will have been completed in the S&P by the time P3 begins, ushering in the start of P3 bear that will ultimately take the S&P to sub 600.

Conclusion: History is repeating as central planners believe doing the same thing, only more of it, will bring about a different result.

We added to TVIX position today, will probably scale that back at $30, then look to re-enter on the final pull back below $20, all in.

Tim Kathlina

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You