Kyle Fishman's  Instablog

Kyle Fishman
Send Message
I am a long time buy-and-hold investor from Cleveland, Ohio, with approximately 6 years investing experience. I primarily target Value stocks, but on occasion am open to "growth at a reasonable price." Ideally I prefer to invest in Mid-Cap stocks over large-cap or small-cap. I believe the two... More
  • Sarepta Therapeutics Still A Long-Term Buy After Price Swings 8 comments
    Jul 9, 2014 8:55 AM | about stocks: SRPT

    Back in April, Seeking Alpha published an article I wrote on Sarepta Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SRPT), then trading around $24/share, regarding the potential of their blockbuster drug for DMD, Eteplirsen, to deliver big gains. The article had excellent timing, considering that Sarepta shares soared up to $39 three weeks later on the news of plans to file a new drug application for accelerated approval. While this made an excellent trade, I truly believe it will also make an excellent long-term investment. I remained long SRPT even after this big jump up.

    Since this time, Sarepta has gone back down to $25/share. Why did this happen? Absent of any news, numbers, reports, data, or trial results, one must conclude that the sell-off was due to fear and emotional reactions. Mr. Market had a mood swing. Eventually, the results of Eteplirsen's later-stage trials will be published, and the damage done by these mood swings will be corrected.

    Sarepta has "committed publicly to disclosing updated results from the ongoing, phase II study of Eteplirsen in the 12 DMD patients. This is the 144-week update. All previous updates from the study have been non-events, which is good news because it means the DMD boys continue to show a remarkable stability in their ability to walk."

    While the levels of investors' fear and emotions may have changed, consider what hasn't changed:

    The world's top scientists and experts in this field still insist the drug is both safe and effective.

    There has been continued stability demonstrated after more than two years of treatment.

    There has been a large amount of contrast between those with DMD who are on the drug and those who are not.

    There is an enormous amount of public support to move this process forward, enough to send a petition with over 100,000 signatures to the White House.

    The disease is fatal and there is an urgent need to treat it.

    I look at the facts, the proof, the research, and the solid evidence that all points to the notion that this drug works and will ultimately be approved. While it may experience a great deal of volatility along the way, it is important to not be intimidated by fears and mood swings, and commit to investing for the long-haul. Sarepta may have an FDA advisory committee meeting sometime next year, and it will be the results of that meeting along with their continued updates on Eteplirsen's late-stage trial results that ultimately determine the stock's fate. While the outcome of these is events is yet to be seen, I am certainly not going to panic during the stock's roller coaster of volatility along the way.

    Disclosure: The author is long SRPT. The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it. The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Stocks: SRPT
Back To Kyle Fishman's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (8)
Track new comments
  • SpoiledRottenBrat
    , contributor
    Comments (1494) | Send Message
    KYLE.... SRPT is trading back at $25 a share again. RU Serious?. Every analyst I've checked has a sell or strong sell. Where's the beef (i.e., earnings). Public support HooRaa! Show me earnings and revs like GILD which I purchased 1000 shares of 7 days ago at $83.5. HooRa!
    9 Jul 2014, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Kyle Fishman
    , contributor
    Comments (715) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » They will get earnings after their drug(s) gets approved.
    9 Jul 2014, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • SpoiledRottenBrat
    , contributor
    Comments (1494) | Send Message
    Hi Kyle... My GILD shares are at $93 today (5 weeks after purchase) & headed higher. My TP IS $135. Nearest thing to a sure thing I've ever purchased, and that's the only thing that worries me about GILD and their Sovaldi cure for Hep-C (the very best cure). Best selling drug of all time by end of 2014, they say.


    Why bother with such a risky stock as Sarepta Therapeutics that is off 50% from it's all time (brief) highs.


    There a folks out there that bought GILD at a split adjusted 34 cents a share back in 2005! Slow and steady wins the race.
    12 Aug 2014, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • Kyle Fishman
    , contributor
    Comments (715) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » I can give you one very big reason Sarepta is a better buy than Gilead: Competition.
    Hepatitis C is a very competitive and crowded space. Sarepta's Eteplirsen may be on its way to having a monopoly.
    13 Aug 2014, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • SpoiledRottenBrat
    , contributor
    Comments (1494) | Send Message
    Hi Kyle.. When the EPS and Revenues came in in Quarter #1 for Sovaldi, essentially, it created a whole 2nd company for GILD (for FREE) a single announcement. All the important numbers doubled.. revenues.. eps... margins.. (actually margins for Sovaldi are better than for the rest of the company).


    When the stock traded at $80 in the first Q of 2014 not one analyst had any idea the revenues would be so astronomical/blowout when reported in that first quarter 14. S&P was OFF by over 1.4 Billion in revenues and $1 in eps.


    That's why today most all the top analysts working for big brand name companies (with 1000 to 30,000 employees) have a TP of $140 to $160 (12 months out) for GILD. IT's IN THE BANK.. for God's sakes... and they know it. Standard and Poors raised their TP from 116 to 150 almost overnight.


    Sarepta hasn't any sales or revs to speak of and just reported a loss or a miss (if I'm correct) for their latest Q. You can't compare Sarepta to GILD. GILD trades over $1 Billion dollars each day in $ volume. Think about that? A person who is worth $100 million could double his net worth in 1 year if he would throw out the dumbest stock market "rule" out the door.. DIVERSITY (is for fools)!


    All I can say is watch GILD stock 12 months from now. It will make it to $130, and beyond IMO. I got it at $83-1/2 and will likely hold this one for over 1 year.. It reached $94.45 a share today (+12.5%), just 6 weeks after I bought them..


    Don't you wish your house could appreciate this much in one year?
    13 Aug 2014, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • Kyle Fishman
    , contributor
    Comments (715) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » okay, you make a fair point. but another thing; regarding your comment: "Sarepta Therapeutics that is off 50% from it's all time (brief) highs" --- you're supposed to buy things that are cheap and on sale. buy low sell high is the name of the game. the fact that it touched those highs tells you exactly what this stock is capable of doing.
    13 Aug 2014, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • Kyle Fishman
    , contributor
    Comments (715) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » If you buy a company that's already profitable, your potential returns aren't quite as high. that's why Sarepta has more upside than Gilead, though it also has more risk. Maybe some companies we can find common ground on are Seattle Genetics and Opko Health, which have very diverse pipelines but not yet profitable. Why buy Gilead when you can buy....the NEXT Gilead?
    13 Aug 2014, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • SpoiledRottenBrat
    , contributor
    Comments (1494) | Send Message
    Kyle... 1000 shares of GILD made me $13,500 through today (6 weeks / +15.4%), with virtually no downside risk IMO. That's why I'll own it straight to $130 a share from here. I can't afford to tie my money up with "couldbees".


    2000 shares of PRXL was purchased 14 weeks ago at $45.85... NOW $57.65.


    I have a list of three others (including ONNN which I bought at $8.54 last week), and our strategies are world's apart.


    Next purchase may be ICLR in a good sell off.


    I don't have unlimited cash coming in... just my own money... so I have to win, win, win.. every time out the shoot.
    14 Aug 2014, 04:04 PM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.