Seeking Alpha

Elgrey's  Instablog

Elgrey
Send Message
Expat finance professional living and working in Hong Kong.
  • My July-13 Strategy 0 comments
    Jul 3, 2013 2:41 AM

    This month I am thinking about following commodities:

    Heating Oil - I talk about it since May and if I talk a bit more about finding bottom in HO this month (again), I guess I will start believing in it myself)))). But honestly speaking there is a strong rationale for that - buy cheap, sell high. Summer is the time. What keeps me worried is that even now HO prices are quite high. I am still waiting for HO to reach 2.60 but I do not rule out that this level won't be achieved - inventory levels of distillates are quite low and US exports a lot of finished petroleum products. I do not see soon price rallies but today could be the right time to go long for a long-term shot.

    Cotton - I am mildly bearish. Planting shows a stable picture. COT is still bearish. But the major rules breaker may finally stop shaking the market. I am talking about China. They got huge reserves of cotton already and lately there were serious statements about slowing growth pace in China. Domestic equity indices fell and same may happen to commodity interventions when China bought everything irrationally for future use in any quantities.

    Question marks:

    Wheat - wheat at the point where one may suggest a value zone. I want to say "go long" but I want to see more confirmations. At the moment market needs some sort of catalyst to shoot up.

    Cattle - same as wheat.

    Lumber - this commodity has been beaten lately. I believe that there is some room to go down. But the party is about to be over, selling was quite heavy during last weeks. We did not get good news from housing market and prices corrected to $3.00 zone.

    Rice - the price is hot now without much reasoning. I do not want to step in but in my opinion $16 is too much. We are yet to hear more weather news so the price may fell down.

    Oats - same as rice I do not want to step in I just express my hesitations that current prices coped with historical trends and COT levels, are elevated.

    Major wildcards in July as of now are Egypt and US weather. It's tricky, tricky, tricky...

Back To Elgrey's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »
Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.